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nigelj at 06:49 AM on 16 June 2020How Climate Change Reinforces Racism
Very good video but one nit pick. I dont think that the title "climate change reinforces racism" is accurate because its hard to see how climate change would lead to racial discrimination and racial prejudice, the normal definition of racism. Better to say climate change reinforces racial inequality.
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scaddenp at 07:10 AM on 15 June 2020No silver lining: The COVID-19 pandemic won't slow climate change
Yes, and I am taking the option to WFH 2 days a week permanently. Not that this will change my CO2 emissions at all however, since I walk to and from work. IT section though is making some big changes since WFH was both popular and productive. More of this should reduce the rate at which CO2 is building up in the atmosphere. Not a cure, but a good start.
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michael sweet at 06:25 AM on 14 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23, 2020
Gavin at Realclimate posted on higher ECS today
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michael sweet at 05:39 AM on 14 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23, 2020
The Guardian newspaper has had a lot of articles about climate change lately.
This article talks about the new model runs for the IPCC AR6 due next year. About 25% of the models have climate sensitivity of 5C compared to teh range of 2-4.5C (3C is commonly used) that has been found for about 40 years. 5C would be much worse change than 3C.
There were not a lot of references to original articles but I found the article to be a reasonable summary for laymen on this topic. (I do not read a lot about climate sensitivity but I have heard about these new models with higher sensitivity.) Apparently changes in cloud modeling (long known to be a weak area) have lead to this increase.
This RealClimate article from November 2019 discusses this issue with more technical detail.
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nigelj at 06:25 AM on 13 June 2020No silver lining: The COVID-19 pandemic won't slow climate change
New Zealand left covid 19 lockdown about a couple of weeks ago, but many people are still working from home. The CBD is still pretty empty during the day. It appears quite a few businesses intend to make working from home a permanent thing, for at least some of their staff, judging by general media comments.
There are no official surveys yet, but the numbers appear significant and a couple of large businesses have made official announcements. Could make some permanent difference to traffic volumes and reduced construction activity, so this is not insignificant for climate change.
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michael sweet at 19:26 PM on 12 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23, 2020
The Guardian reported that new research dramatically increasing the assessment of how much economic damage extreme weather causes.
The original scientific article estimates the cost of Hurricane Harvey due to climate change was about $67 billion, about 3/4 of the total damage.
Thank you for all the hard work organizing this section Doug.
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James Charles at 17:16 PM on 12 June 2020Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 1 - the background
Is this the case?
“Michael G. O'Brien
James Charles
What has happened during the past 125K years is uplift of the ESAS clathrate deposits from their formation and safe zone 700 meters deep to 50 meters deep by mantle convection . At that depth when the ice is gone latent heat takes two years to start the chain reaction of methane runaway. They were not import last interglacial because they were safely deep enough then. “
www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10221619560135827I emailed Prof. D. E. Archer and he was kind enough to reply.
"This doesn’t make much sense to me. Mantle convection does not move methane hydrate, because the hydrate is in the sediments on the crust, not in the mantle. There isn’t a chain reaction of melting; melting takes heat rather than giving it off, like regular ice.
hope this helps. "
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JWRebel at 07:44 AM on 12 June 2020Sea-level rise likely to swallow many coastal mangrove forests
Would be good to expand on the value of mangroves a little more. It is mentioned, but their main value is not just protecting against damage to coastal properties.
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Dawei at 01:03 AM on 11 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23, 2020
Thanks as always — happy to see the new Agronomy category.
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MA Rodger at 22:25 PM on 10 June 2020The History of Climate Science
Tacoma Loren @42,
I didn't spend very long on the experiment bit of your video but did watch through the 'atmosphere' bit. Given the experiment, I was thinking you would be providing a 'safe' explanation of the 'atmosphere' but there are some statements that are fundamentally wrong.
First a minor comment.
I'm not entirely sure that it is true that CO2 is the "primary GHG in the stratosphere." And the escape-altitude doubling if the GHG concentration doubles?
The big issue is that the GHG effect of CO2 is entirely in the upper troposphere not the stratosphere. And the H2O effect is almost all in the lower troposphere.
As your experiment set out, the colder an object, the less IR it emits. At higher altitudes through the troposphere, the temperature drops. But when you get to the stratosphere, the temperature starts rising again. Thus for a frequency of IR which escapes into space from the stratosphere, an increase in the concentrations of the responsible GHG (and thus an increase in the altitude of escape to space) will result in a warmer escape altitude and so more more IR escaping. This will cause global cooling.
It is thus for escape altitudes in the troposphere with its cooling-with-altitude that adding GHGs results in warming.
Now GHGs work across different frequency bands of IR. The CO2 warming results from a band centred on 15 microns. The very centre of that band is saturated all the way into the stratosphere so the IR at that very centre will be cooling with added GHG as the size of that central band escaping from up in the stratosphere increases with increasing CO2. The existence of the stratospheric escape-altitude can be seen as a spike in the centre of the 15 micron absorption band in the graphic below. (There is a similar spike at the centre of the ozone absorption band at 9 microns.)
(As CO2 increases, there are other wavebands that come into play so it is not all a one-way street. Zhong & Haig (2013) might be a useful read as to what happens to the wavebands.)
So I would suggest the main ammendment of the 'altitude' bit of the video would be to replace 'stratosphere' with 'upper troposphere' and 'troposphere' with 'lower troposphere'. And if it doesn't add too much complexity, the "thickness" or "blocking effect" of the GHG is not the mechanism (mentioned near 29:30) but the temperature-with-altitude is. Hope that helps.
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Tacoma Loren at 07:38 AM on 10 June 2020The History of Climate Science
Hello All. This is my first post. Thank you to the people who run this site and everyone who contributes - it's an excellent public service.
I used to be a high school physics and chemistry teacher. I recently posted a video of a table top demonstration that shows CO2 emitting IR at room temperature, without any fancy equipment, just thermometers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yK1EZ-RfDg&t=497s
Please view the video and give me feedback, especially on the second part of the video where I explain the role of CO2 in the stratosphere. I want to be sure I got it right.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:49 AM on 10 June 2020How much would planting 1 trillion trees slow global warming?
I am a climatologist, not a forest ecologist, but I have dealt with forest carbon cycles and monitoring. My main familiarity is with boreal forests - and I know enough to know that different types of forest have different characteristics.
Much of what you say makes sense to me. In boreal forests, much of the stored carbon is in the soil, not the biomass (living). It gets into the soil via root decay, plus leaf litter (annual input from deciduous trees) and fallen branches and trees trunks ("detritus"). These decay over time, and are gradually incorporated into soidl carbon - and gradually transformed to more stable compounds.
Boreal forests are dominated by fire regimes. A cleared area can lose a lot of carbon as detritus and soil carbon decay faster with warmer soil temperatures. It takes quite a bit of time for new biomass growth to overtake the increased decay, so disturbed forests lose carbon for a while before the become a sink again.
One item I'd disagree with in the details: leaf temperatures will not differ significantly from air temperature. Air near the ground is heated by the input from the surface (soil, shrubs, trees, etc.), so the difference is minimal. Trees do represent a method to bring soil water up to the surface (transpiration), so the water vapour flux is indeed enhanced by vegetation.
Any vegetation cover adds organic matter to the soil and enhances soil structure in ways that reduce runoff and alter the hydrology.
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Stefan at 05:23 AM on 9 June 2020Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Hello,
I would be very grateful for any feedback from the as to whether the latest paper from Mrs. Shakova (Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Shakova et al, 2019).
I'm just trying to understand whether this paper (and others issued since this article was originally published) has provided any more scientific clarity to the plausability of the abrupt methane release and its potential consequences to the climate and humans.
Sorry for such a question I'm just an ordinary person trying to comprehend all the information which I cannot always properly follow or challenge in any way....Moderator Response:[DB] Thornton et al 2019 had some things to say about some gross errors in Shakhova et al 2019:
"The recent paper in Geosciences, “Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf” by Shakhova, Semiletov, and Chuvilin, (henceforth “S2019”), contains a number of false statements about our 2016 paper, “Methane fluxes from the sea to the atmosphere across the Siberian shelf seas”, (henceforth “T2016”). S2019 use three paragraphs of section 5 of their paper to claim methodological errors and issues in T2016. Notably they claim that in T2016, we systematically removed data outliers including data with high methane concentrations; this claim is false. While we appreciate that flawed methodologies can be a problem in any area of science, in this case, the claims made in S2019 are simply false. In this comment, we detail the incorrect claims made in S2019 regarding T2016, and then discuss some additional problematic aspects of S2019."
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baeb at 03:16 AM on 9 June 2020How much would planting 1 trillion trees slow global warming?
There are several characteristics of forests that aren't mentioned as far as I can see in the article or the posts. (1) Mature forests sequester a large amount of carbon in soil micro-biology mainly through large amounts of mycorrhizal fungi and their creation of humates. This will build over time and remain there. (2) Tree leaves represent laminate surfaces containing water so their temperatures change slower than air around them, so they condense water as dew and in many places condense large amounts of water. (3) Roots and dead tree matter particularly on slopes reduces runoff and rapid evaporation so water helps cool forests (4) Forests change the amount of water in an area in many other ways. Rainfall and snow doesn't evaporate as easily in shade as in fields or parking lots so it is released slower and tends to contibute to more vegetation growth. The difference is large in hot areas. (5) As I understand it, forests don't emit mid and far-range infrared as much as an adjacent area of earth, rock, pavement, etc. because they don't get hot and cool themselves through transpiration. This increases water vapor in the air along with nucleating pollen, that contributes to rain down wind which encourages more biomass. Water vapor becomes clouds which can create albedo themselves, rain for more plants, lower temperatures blocking sun, but of course they also operate as greenhouse gases so there are some questions there. But water that goes up also comes down.
The work of Prof. Walter Jahne (online) is interesting on this and there were at least two Science magazine articles on the modeling 20 years ago of rain, vegetation, and climate alteration. Which is to say that the effect of forests on global temperatures is, just like climate, a very complicated issue. But I would like to know what anyone with expertise in both forest ecology and climate thinks about these issues (if there is such a person) and its relation to the important topic of the crisis we face and what to do about it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:42 AM on 9 June 2020The History of Climate Science
Great presentation.
Interestingly, The latest BBC Ideas item in its Sustainable Thinking collection is about the History of Climate Science and includes Eunice Foote.
The video is "Three pioneers who predicted climate change". The video content begins with Eunice, presenting interesting bits of info not mentioned in this OP, and concludes with Keeling. It is less than 5 minutes long (all of the BBC Ideas Sustainable Thinking videos are brief).
There are many other Climate Science related bits in the Sustainable Thinking set of videos. But I would encourage everyone to explore all of the content. Climate Science is only a part of the important understanding needing to be pursued and applied to help develop a Sustainable Improvable future for humanity.
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John Mason at 17:56 PM on 8 June 2020The History of Climate Science
@39 - very true. That familiar, angular etch-pattern in slices of iron meteorites - the Widmanstatten pattern, was in fact first described a few years before Count Widmanstatten's write up, by a guy called G. Thomson. There are probably dozens of other examples!
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Bob Loblaw at 10:40 AM on 8 June 2020Polar bear numbers are increasing
Prager U is a notoriously unreliable source for scientific information on climate change. A long history of misinformation.
For another takedown, read Barry Bickmore's perspective (not polar-bear-specific, so starting to wander off topic here):
https://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/dick-lindzen-prager-u-and-the-art-of-lying-well/
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JWRebel at 09:29 AM on 8 June 2020The History of Climate Science
all came to a similar conclusion independently of one another
The article states this about Suess and Revelle, but it could well be applied to the question of Foote's influence on Tyndale. In fact, scientific and technical discoveries have an uncanny way of coming to light independantly in the same period of time ... there seems to be kind of fortuitous serendipity to the questions being asked and the inspiration it awakens across nations and peoples.
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John Hartz at 08:39 AM on 8 June 2020Polar bear numbers are increasing
Recommended supplemental reading:
The global polar bear population is threatened by loss of sea ice, contrary to PragerU’s video claim by Vikki Forrester, Climate Feedback, May 18, 2020
KEY TAKE AWAY: There is no scientific evidence that the global polar bear population is growing in size. Climate change induced losses in sea ice habitat is the most important threat to polar bear survival. Two polar bear subpopulations have already been negatively impacted by sea ice loss.
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nigelj at 07:19 AM on 8 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
Central banks seem to be speaking up more, and being more proactive, just a personal observation. Not entirely a bad thing. Perhaps this is because they sense the politicians have bad policies, because they have been bought out by special interest business groups :)
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william5331 at 07:02 AM on 8 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
Yes!!!! This is an inflection point in which we could change the course of our world, which is heading toward a series of serious climate melt downs but no where it the old aphorism Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune more true than in politics. Politicians don't do the bidding of the rich and powerful because their political campaigns were supported in the last election. They do their bidding because they know that they won't be supported next time if they don't toe the line. Barack Obama toyed with the idea of not taking money from the vested interests and then folded. The only politician I am aware of that has actually adhered to this principle; that really understands the corrosive effect political contributions are having on every aspect of our life is Bernie Sanders. A huge movement is needed to bring him back into the fold. Otherwise we have another 4 years of Trump or 4 years of Biden. Look at Biden's voting record to see what this means. I know we are not supposed to bring politics into the discussion but politics, at this point in our history, is the only real game in town.
https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2018/01/wasted-effort.html
Moderator Response:[DB] Self-promotional advertising snipped.
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michael sweet at 01:58 AM on 7 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
$23 billion dollars for real estate in the Keys.
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michael sweet at 01:57 AM on 7 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
I am very sorry, I made a math error.
Hwy A1A is about 100 miles from Key Largo to Key West. At $60 million per mile it would cost about $6 billion just for this highway. There are about 200 miles more roadway in the Keys that would also have to be raised. The average height above sea level is 3 feet in the Keys and sea level is already 1 foot higher than the reference point.
According to this real estate article the total property value of land in the Keys was about $23 in 2016. How much is it worth spending on lifting roads for that much real estate? Part of this real estate will be under water before the existing roads. This is only the issue in the Florida Keys. Even more real estate is on low lying ground in the rest of the USA.
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Joel_Huberman at 23:32 PM on 6 June 2020The History of Climate Science
Yes, many thanks for this important update!
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Bob Loblaw at 23:24 PM on 6 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
When Jaimesald says "...this might happen...", it sounds like he thinks nothing will actually happen. Unless he returns to comment further, we can only speculate.
Lost property value is, in one sense, a "paper loss". If people bought at a low price a long time ago and can't sell at some point in the future, then their real loss is what they originally paid (a small amount), plus whatever they could have gained if they had put the money into a different investment (the "opportunity cost").
If people paid a lot recently, and then can't sell, they lose the value of their recent investment. The loss is more apparent.
Abandoning property and infrastructure has no direct cost, but rebuilding elsewhere does. Usually, people that move can sell their property and use the money to buy or build elsewhere. When they can't sell at any useful price, they have to find the money from other sources to pick up their lives.
Defend in place, or move elswhere - both are expensive options.
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michael sweet at 08:57 AM on 6 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
That should be Hwy A1A in Florida through the Keys.
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michael sweet at 08:54 AM on 6 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
Perhaps Jamesald is correct: it is likely that it is already too late to do anything to preserve the Florida Keys. If that is the case any money spent on mitigation is wasted and the best plan is do nothing until the water reaches too high and then run for high ground. People will run when damage from big hurricanes come too close together. About 11 million people in Florida will soon be affected by sea level rise.
The Tamino post Bob Loblaw linked shows that sea level is already 1 full foot (300 mm) higher in Miami and the Florida Keys. According to this newspaper article, it costs up to $60 million per mile to raise roads. Just to raise Highway 101 (the main road through the Keys) would be at least $700 million.
Once people realize that sea level cannot be contained property values will plummet.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:44 AM on 6 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
Jaimesald:
Deciding to do nothing now is "making a decision". Are you suggesting that there is too much uncertainty to do anything at all? Do you feel any uncertainty that taking no action is the best approach? Uncertainty works on everything - not just the action you seem to not want to do.
Any delay reduces the time available to take action. Waiting too long can prevent taking any action at all until it is too late.
Increased flooding in south Florida is not a risk - it has become an event:
That means it is time to put the risk management plan into action.
The people that have looked at how probable the risk is and what the likely damage will be are telling you the risk is high and the effects will be large. Do you have any specific argument as to why they might be in error, or are you just part of the "don't do anything until we have 100% certainty" crowd?
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Jaimesald at 04:12 AM on 6 June 2020Can the Florida Keys be saved?
There are reasons to believe this might happen. Yet there is uncertainty. The risk involved must be properly assessed and a benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty must be made before making a decision.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:02 AM on 6 June 2020The History of Climate Science
Thanks for this update, John.
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John Mason at 18:28 PM on 5 June 2020The History of Climate Science
I've finally gotten round to revising this post with details of both Foote and Tyndalk's work, including a few useful links.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:57 AM on 4 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
Perhaps these windows were simply of poor quality. My house has its original windows, they are more than 20 years old and (knock on wood) doing just fine...
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Eclectic at 13:33 PM on 3 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
DavidOwen, if I may continue anecdotally :-
Some years ago, a relative of mine living in Germany took advantage of governmental interest-free loans, and did a thorough "job" on the house ~ general insulation and double (or triple?) glazing of windows. I've forgotten the cost, but it ran to many thousands of Euros. The result is that five of the six huge oil tanks under the house are now effectively redundant.
Not sure whether the interest-free governmental loans would be counted as subsidies. Nett long-term cost to the taxpayer is nil, other than the very small interest amount. The homeowner wins, economically. The country wins, from reduced oil imports and/or reduced electricity generation.
Though I haven't seen an analysis for Germany, it seems likely that it's an efficient arrangement. No compulsion. The homeowner gets to assess what should best be attended to for the individual house.
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DavidOwen100 at 01:28 AM on 3 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
The costs I quote are with me doing the installation - I agree, it's quite easy; I've already replaced half a dozen. It's an old house with thick stone walls and all the windows are odd sizes, no two are the same, so the glass needs to be made to order. With regard to the water heating, don't forget that in the UK we only receive sufficient insolation to rely wholly on that for about 3-4 months a year ( it was 53 degrees north there and slap in the middle of the Cheshire Gap, so cloudy even for the UK) and the rest of the time I was using at least some oil, which was, and remains, the cheapest option for domestic water and space heating if relying on traditional methods. At the moment, I'm using around 400 litres a year for water heating (I have no other source of heating water now) for two of us.
Anyway, the point I'm making is to agree with Nigel, that subsidies are essential to encourage the takeup of better technologies, especially when FF is, I believe, still so heavily subsidised itself. Perhaps part of the answer is to remove those, mostly hidden, subsidies and let renewables fend for themselves on a level playing field, but that would force up end-user costs for everyone.
Of course, the ideal would be to promote a huge increase in insulation and other ways to reduce energy consumption - but there's far less profit in that.
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Daniel Bailey at 00:16 AM on 3 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
"Most windows in the UK are double glazed and many people have removed perfectly sound single glazed windows to replace them with double units, at, let's say, around £1,000 per window. What people are now finding out is that these windows don't last that long - often, in 20 years or less, the seals go and you need to replace the glazing at about £500 per window."
Most vinyl windows are designed for easy replacement of their insulated glass (IG) windows, should the seals fail. Once the replacement IG unit is on-hand, the process takes about 10-15 minutes per window, depending upon the design of the window and the expertise of the installer. I know, because I've done it myself, for a small fraction of the cost of a new vinyl window.
You'll have to entirely reformulate your calculations.
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Eclectic at 22:55 PM on 2 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
DavidOwen @4 ,
sorry to hear about the very expensive double-glazed windows failing at 20 years. Have you considered some of those cheap German triple-glazed windows? (But I guess you are needing bespoke sizes, which would distinctly increase the cost.)
For a cheapskate like me, if my window sealing deteriorated and the argon escaped, then I would grab my clear-silicone-sealant squirtgun and DIY (after putting a tablespoon of absorbent silica crystals into the glazing interspace). Air is a bit less efficient insulator than argon ~ but the cost-benefit ratio looks good! If you are disinclined to be a gunslinger, then hire a handyman to tackle those 19 windows. Shouldn't go much more than a 1,000 quid (perhaps a touch more, if two storeys).
I confess I am surprised that your hot-water system saved you only 100/year. That's a low water usage !
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DavidOwen100 at 19:22 PM on 2 June 2020All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
The problem for householders is that pretty well all the so-called "investments" in domestic systems are nothing of the sort - at least financially. I can give you two personal examples.
Windows. Most windows in the UK are double glazed and many people have removed perfectly sound single glazed windows to replace them with double units, at, let's say, around £1,000 per window. What people are now finding out is that these windows don't last that long - often, in 20 years or less, the seals go and you need to replace the glazing at about £500 per window. I have calculated that sound double glazing saves me about £200 a year - that's with 19 windows, so £10,000 to repair them all, and they're pretty well shot now, so that's a 50 year payback time (even without inflation and capital interest taken into account)!
Solar water heating. I put this into my previous house at a cost of £4,500. It worked well, but again, only saved me around £100 a year - and an annual service cost £100!. After 15 years I sold the house and the presence of the system returned not one penny in added value to the property.
I believe the average length of house ownership in the UK is around 6 years. In addition, the ratio of renting to ownership is changing quickly, in favour of the former.
Of course, this is just the personal financial side of it and a broader interpretation of "investment" is another matter entirely, but without very substantial incentives, any technology with high capital cost to householders is never going to take off. In the meantime, cost are much less when installed in new builds, but successive governments, whilst making encouraging noises, are still reluctant to go against the lobbying of the big house building companies who do most of the building in the UK and want to keep building costs at a minimum (also, there's a skills shortage - it's hard enough to find a new build with bathroom walls tiled properly, let alone complicated heating and ventilation systems installed competently).
So, major public investment seems the only way forward. Given the current fashion in the West for low taxes/small government, good luck with that.
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nigelj at 12:26 PM on 2 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Slarty Bartfast @6
The article never said these floating ice shelves melt and thus cause sea level rise. It said (paraphrasing) the floating ice shelves melt, and as a result the land based glacier ice sheets retreat more quickly thus accelerating sea level rise. Please read the article again.
The ice shelves are not frozen sea water. They are not sea ice. They are just extensions of the land based glacier, so they are frozen fresh water, refer here.
Agree to the extent that most of the melting floating ice shelves wont cause sea level rise because they have already displaced the sea water. Only the part above the ocean surface would contribute to sea level rise.
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CD at 11:01 AM on 2 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Re: [3] SirCharles
Thank you for your comment. Yes, I read the article.
Re. [5] nigelj - It doesn't matter where the sea ice comes from. The point is it is floating and so it has already elevated the sea level by displacing sea water. If it melts nothing changes. The volume of sea water it displaces when it is ice is the same volume that will be replaced with water when it melts. That is Archimedes' principle. That was my point.
As for your claim that the ice shelves are just extensions of the ice sheets on land; if that were true (a) they wouldn't be flat, and (b) they wouldn't regrow once melted as they frequently do on a seasonal basis. See here https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/unexpected-ice
Moderator Response:[DB] As your NASA article makes clear, you are confusing/conflating sea ice with ice shelves, which are extrusions of land-based ice sheets out over the surface of the ocean. Ice shelves may be floating or grounded upon pinning points and are often hundreds of meters thick (50-600 or more). They do not regrow "frequently...on a seasonal basis". Sea ice varies in thickness from 1 to a few meters and is often fully seasonal in nature in the Antarctic.
Commenting upon on a matter without fully understanding it sometimes happens. But others have already pointed out that you do not have a good understanding of this subject matter. As a result, the skeptical thing to do would be to improve your understanding of the subject before commenting further. Alternatively, asking for good resources to use to make that improvement in your understanding is also a good idea.
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michael sweet at 22:43 PM on 1 June 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Antjrk:
Why do you think that the Haber-Bosch process cannot be converted to renewable energy? Smart Energy Europe, the OP a few days ago, provides a plan to generate all power using renewable energy. Obviously you can obtain hydrogen by electrolysis of water and the remainder of the process can easily be electrified.
More than half of current food supplies world wide are produced by small farmers who do not use any commercial fertilizers. You need to reduce your claims of how many people are fed using artificial fertilizers.
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antjrk at 11:58 AM on 1 June 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
RedBaron @147
MA Rodger @148
Eclectic @149
Haber-Bosch is still producing 230 millions ton/year synthetic product. I am skeptical that this will be terminated in the next few decades. Therefore, until last Haber-Bosh plant on the earth is shut down my equation: Direct(inhalation) + indirect(inhalation) = life (7.5 billions people on the Earth) will have some merit. -
nigelj at 06:26 AM on 1 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Slarty Bartfast, another way of looking at it is the floating ice shelves add to sea level rise, because they are frozen fresh water originating from the land based ice sheets. Its not the same as salt water freezing which doesn't change sea level rise.
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Daniel Bailey at 03:37 AM on 1 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Think of the ice shelves as brakes on a car, that act to keep the car from rolling downhill too fast.
Remove the ice shelves/brakes and everything goes downhill faster.
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SirCharles at 03:22 AM on 1 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Why don't you go and read the article, Slarty?
"Ice shelves float on the ocean but they are fastened to land and act as stoppers that prevent Antarctic ice sheets that are as big as the U.S. and Mexico combined from sliding into the sea. The shelves are frozen to outcrops on the seafloor, but when they melt away from those anchor points, the flow of ice into the ocean speeds up, accelerating sea level rise."
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CD at 00:53 AM on 1 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Sorry, I meant floating floating ice shelves. That is after all the topic of the above post, and the title implies that melting ice shelves will raise sea levels, which obviously on their own they can't.
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Eclectic at 22:52 PM on 31 May 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Antjrk @145 and earlier :- You are wrong on many points.
(A) <"Every cell of our body contains nitrogen but not every cell contains phosphor.">
Incorrect. Every human cell contains phosphorus. Phosphorus compounds are vital structural and nucleic and operational components of living cells.
(B) For the subsistence farmers of the Third World, the use of synthetic fertilizer is expensive for them, and gives a risky Value-Cost Ratio. To quote FAO : "In the case of poor small-scale farmers, the cost of fertilizers can represent a high proportion of the total variable cost of production, an investment that they can particularly ill afford where there is a risk of crop failure." In consequence, they are usually safer using traditional fertilizing techniques.
(C) In rich countries (e.g. USA) one observes that "the poor people are fat". The price of food "at the farm gate" is small in comparison to the retail price at the shop ~ so an increase in farming cost of produce (e.g. from loss of the Haber-Bosch nitrogenous fertilizers) will produce only a very small percentage price increase of food for the consumer.
And the [current 2020 crisis] huge lines of Americans queuing (in rather expensive cars) to get free food at food banks . . . reflects sudden loss of disposable incomes. Also for the chronic users of "food stamps", this can largely be attributed to the conjunction of low income and high rental/accommodation costs ~ a matter of "social injustice" rather than the cost of Haber-Bosch economics.
# Antjrk : as MA Rodger points out, your comments have been somewhat off-topic for this thread. The Haber-Bosch nitrogenous fertilizers produce a negligibly small direct contribution to CO2 in human outbreath. Which still leaves our readers [including me] wondering if you are going to raise any valid point of disputation.
But if you do have such a point in the back of your mind, then please bring it forward and explain it clearly.
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MA Rodger at 20:18 PM on 31 May 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
antjrk,
This comment thread drifts off-topic and now has more of the feel of an exercise in reinforcing a false & crazy theory than anything else. I will thus break off my participation but with a couple of Parthian shots.
() While calcium is an essential ingredient of both bones and milk, it is not essential for the dairy industry. If agriculture stopped liming fields this would not result in cattle being unable to form skeletons or provide milk.
() The CO2 emissions from fertilisers using FF is assessed as 467Tg(CO2)/yr or ~120Mt(C) of a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 12,000Mt(C). Essential or not (and most here appear unconvinced of your agruments for it being essential), if that 1% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions were to become a major remaining target in the fight against AGW, I would myself consider the climate crisis pretty-much done and dusted.
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RedBaron at 13:49 PM on 31 May 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
@146 antjrk,
Yes, in 2018 the haber process produced 230 tonnes anhydrous ammonia. This is a significant source for AGW. I do not dispute that at all.
The logic flaw is in assuming that this supports a type of agriculture that is the best yields per acre of food for people, thus required. That is not true. In almost every case maximum yields are better using regenerative methods that do not use haber process nitrogen. So actually changing agriculture will not risk making even more people starve. In fact the opposite is already happening.
Since you seem skeptical of this, I will give a real world example. SRI (system of rice intensification) SRI can be done either completely organic or with chemical fertilizers, or often many various degrees between.
However, the biggest yields, in fact world record yields, all come from farmers using no haber process nitrogen at all.
This is not a one-off or fluke either. Across the board improved yields. But more importantly to a discussion about global warming, is the dramatic differences in greenhouse gasses between conventional paddy rice production and SRI.
The System of Rice Intensification (SRI)…
… is climate-smart rice productionSo changing agriculture to fix the carbon cycle also eliminates the need for haber process nitrogen and also INCREASES yields per acre. Exactly the opposite as your conclusion based on flawed logic.
That's just rice, one of the big three. But the same can also be said for wheat and corn too. Changing methods to all the various new regenerative ag methods INCREASES yields per acre on average. (usually after about a 3 year recovery period, but in some cases yields surpass those with haber process nitrogen year one)
Your supposed risk of starving 1/2 the population of the world is completely unsupported. In fact because of the properties of biological carbon in the soil, they actually dramatically reduce the risk of famine caused by drought or flood and/or a whole host of other stresses.
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antjrk at 12:32 PM on 31 May 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
RedBaron @143
I am not going to use ocean of ink to defend my case. I will not use words “fallacy’, "anti-herbivore" propaganda, vacuous truth red herring, logic fallacy e.t.c.
In spite of more than 100 years ago Haber and Bosch invented their process this is still used very widely. As of 2018, the Haber process produces 230 million tonnes of anhydrous ammonia per year.
Thanks to those two great chemist as well as Nobel laureates billions of people could enjoy their life including me. In past, now and hopefully in the future.
I never said/write that this process can not be or should not be substituted by different one. In some point of time will be. However, needs to be done extremely carefully base on the scientific not a political merit assuring that there is no tragedy involved and no one is losing his life or experiencing starving. That’s what worry me at most.
As another example of more than 100 years old invention and still being used, I can give you the Einstein’s theory of relativity. Thanks to him today we could enjoy GPS and no one complains that is so old invention.
I wish you well. -
antjrk at 12:31 PM on 31 May 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Eclectic @144
I think you are bringing a very good point “you see a great deal of obesity and food waste.” Obesity might be the sign that is too much food so there should be no need for that much of fertilizer. This is rather social/behavioral and political issue that I would prefer not to go too deep there. Thus, for example I can see a huge waste of food in restaurants. Very often people can’t eat all the food they ordered in restaurant throwing the big portion of it into garbage. For me this is very sad to watch this. Such behavior shows not only lack of regards for human work but additionally produces unnecessary large emission of CO2 to atmosphere. Problem is that many people see food only by the scope of price/pound which is relatively cheap and nothing else. The food we have is a fruit of hard work of many people, and gift of our nature for us to have a life. We are trying to figure out how to decrease CO2 emission yet people are working against this.
On the other hand approximately 40 millions of people are not able to put food on their table asking for food stamp. In present time of pandemii we can see as well as a huge lines of people at food banks asking for free food because they can’t support their families. All of this is in the first world which knows how to produce enough food. I am worry that increasing food price by changing agriculture might put many more people on food stamp or at food bank. They might consider themselves as be in third world.
In third world food is expensive or very expensive for much larger part of population than in the first.I totally agree that other technologies than H-B could be developed including involving more organic methods and recycling of sewage. But they should be implemented without rising food price so everyone can afford it. This should be based on science not politics.
“For humanity, the cereal crops are the mainstay. And for that, one could argue that the role of phosphates is more important than the nitrates.”
I would incline toward nitrates because nitrogen is more basic for human body than phosphor. Every cell of our body contains nitrogen but not every cell contains phosphor.
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