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Comments 74101 to 74150:

  1. It's the ocean
    Dana69 - See SkS post: Ocean cooling corrected, again And note the warming oceans down to 1500 metres:
  2. actually thoughtful at 16:04 PM on 23 September 2011
    SkS Responses to Pielke Sr. Questions
    Response to moderator comments @182 John Hartz - yes there was muted appreciation for Dr. Pielke's presence here, surely you would agree that a very public (as in posted on his blog site if he allows comments anywhere) thank you from John Cook (as the man behind SkS) would be a class move (or directly to his email if he doesn't allow comments anywhere). Perhaps this has been done. I do NOT subscribe to the false equivalence of deniers and scientists, however I do accept that Dr. Pielke has studied this stuff for a lifetime, and I think his presence on this site is a credit to John Cook and other long-time SkS folks - you have created a site where Dr. Pielke wants to present his case. As far as how it might seem to Dr. Pielke - imagine if you were invited to present/defend a post on WUWT - you might have trepidation (and again, I am not presenting any false equivalence between WUWT and a real science site like SkS). You can thank him for his participation and not dwell on his departure. Daniel Bailey - your internet-as-the-great-equalizer is, in general, a great perspective. I personally was thrilled/humbled when Dr. Trenberth wrote a post on SkS - but I didn't think my post was in any way as important or informative as Dr. Trenberth's. While I don't disagree with Dr. Pielke's science (in so far as I understand it), I still wonder what the fuss is about. He could say "well we need to reduce CO2 regardless" and be consistent with his science, he appears to enjoy controversy for controversies sake (the whole non-dichotomy of option 2A and 2B being a case in point). So, given that I disagree with his conclusions (me short for Pielke shorter: "lets obfuscate instead of acting") I still think he should receive the same respect that Dr. Trenberth received. While of course all posts here (at least after moderation) were at a reasonably high level, I could feel a very different attitude towards Dr. Pielke, perhaps due to the difference in their scientific positions. Mainly I thought the wall of posts/questions would be hard for anyone, let alone someone out of his comfort zone, to respond to in a useful way. It comes down to whether you put "internet equality" ahead of truly understanding Dr. Pielke's position. As many have noted, a blog comment section, as currently structured, is not the optimum forum for that. Thus my original comment at 182. I personally don't think internet equality applies when you have invited a person noted in their field to your site. They should be at least the first among equals, if not given a different/special platform for communicating their opinion. Now if Dr. Pielke wants to comment on a thread he is not featured in, I certainly agree that his posts should be treated exactly like everyone else. But it feels impolite to invite him over for tea (as it were) and then ambush him (again, no bad intentions, just what the medium creates) with endless questions, counters, etc. For the sake of clarity: I don't think Dr. Pielke's reference to papers he has written was particularly helpful (nor his apparent evasion of direct, germane questions), but I do think he deserves a charitable viewing of his argument, especially after SkS invited him over.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Thanks for the perspectives; thoughtful as usual.

    My point, distilled, is that all are held to the same standard here.  Many comments were deleted from the thread, but none of RPSr.  Though perhaps many should have been.  So claims of unfair moderation may have some truth in that everyone else here was held to a higher standard of conduct than RPSr.

    [John Hartz] I'm not aware that "many" comments were deleted from this thread. Perhaps you are referring to the thread of Dana's initial article where many commenst were in fact deleted?
  3. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Hello Lucia, Welcome to SkepticalScience. I'm very sorry that you have some misgivings about this site and even some suspicions it seems, but please do not be so quick to judge. We appreciate that you assisted earlier in identifying flaws, it is important to get things right and Dana corrected the error lightning speed. While we welcome your opinions, I'm afraid that your minor points have their own issues: "a) Included other observational data sets like HadCrut and NOAA. (If s/he thinks they are inferior GISTemp, s/he should say why he thinks so.)" What Craig said @12. I think that you know as well as we do that each of the datasets has its limitations. What do you think is the best GAT analysis and why? Dana was simply being true to the original graphic that was shown. "b) Discussed whether the comparison in his figure ends with an El Nino year vs. La Nina year. (BTW: If the observations ends with 2010, it ends with an El Nino). The models average over numerous cases so its not important for the models but it matters for the observations." As it happens that is not quite as straight forward as your presume, because 2010 was a transition year. The CPC ONI data show that El Nino conditions persisted until April, with a short window of neutral conditions, followed by the formation of a La Nina in JJA. So while the impacts on global SATs would have potentially lingered for 5 months or so after the El Nino, is is not strictly correct to say that "If the observations ends with 2010, it ends with an El Nino" as you did, 2010 actually ended in a strong La Nina. Besides, as noted by Alex @11, the trend was calculated through mid-2011. "c) Mention the exact year when the AR4 was published rather than merely saying it was published "recently". After mentioning the year, he should explain why his comparison starts in 2000. (Whatever the reason for his choice, he should give it.)" Please read the first sentence of the post. It starts"In 2007, the IPCC...". Also, the year appears in a light blue banner in some of the pages linked to, or in the case of the very first hyperlink to "Chapter 8", the following is also printed at the top of the page: "Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis". I'll let Dana explain why he starts in 2000-- it probably has something to looking at decadal trends. I'm afraid nit picking is not constructive, especially when the nits have no basis or are in error. I hope to see you acknowledge your own mistakes (we all make them, no shame in that) and correct your blog post too (if needed) so as to keep you readers informed. Best, Albatross.
  4. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    I'm reminded of this one just a few days ago, Dana. Anthony Watts: "Oh dear, now we have three peer reviewed papers (Lindzen and Choi, Spencer and Braswell, and now Richard P. Allan) based on observations that show a net negative feedback for clouds, and a strong one at that. What will Trenberth and Dessler do next? Maybe the editor of Meteorological Applications can be persuaded to commit professional suicide and resign?" Bart summarized the incident here. What's remarkable is the above line by Watts remains in the post, shrillness and all, long after some, including the author of the paper he's botching, corrected him. Strange.
  5. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    lucia - you are of course entitled to your own opinion, but your own opinion seems to consist of whole bunch of nitpicks [you should have explained 'x' and 'y']. There are a million things I 'could have' explained, and what I 'should have' explained [especially your examples] is extremely subjective. You also might want to read the second word in the post, and also the title of Figure 3. I'm relieved to see that I'm not the only one who makes errors.
  6. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    skywatcher - agreed, there's a serious difference in the standards each "side" is held to. We make a minor error and it's immediately a "-gate". "Skeptics" make huge errors misrepresenting research or doing bad statistics, and basically aren't even held accountable.
  7. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    About -> Team might be useful for Lucia going forward. I'm glad that she is finally beginning to familiarize herself with Skeptical Science.
  8. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Lucia, The post is about the IPCC AR4 projections (as described in chapter 10.3 or the AR4 report) and their accuracy. Figure 2 is the second figure in that report. It presents GISS data up to the year 2000 and model projections from there until 2100. Had the IPCC plot used one of the other instrumental records or a different cut-off between the observational and modelled data then it would make sense for Dana to have used those. But that isn’t the case. Seem pretty obvious to me. The IPCC AR4 report was published in 2007 (it states it on the report!). Is that relevant?
  9. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Lucia: The general reason for consistently using GISTEMP is that it is a truly global dataset, whereas HadCRUT is not for instance (it excludes the poles). I am not personally sure about NOAA. As to your other two points, you may want to recheck the first line of the article, and also where Dana stated that the trend calculated from GISTEMP was through mid-2011, which so far has been La Nina.
  10. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Charlie A was on the right track, and asked the key question, but his reasoning wasn't quite right, and that may have caused Dana to chase a red herring. "I see a slope of 0.2C/decade, not the 0.12C that you see." IPCC AR4 Synthesis report says "For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios."" "Seeing" isn't too precise, and 0.2 C per decade is only the quoted decadal rate through 20 years. Zeke's post (#25) was the most useful, Lucia's over-dramatic point-scoring not particularly useful, but I'm pleased to see a variety of blogs paying attention to SkS now.
  11. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    I wonder if we'll see similar corrections for errors in posts at places like WUWT, when spectacular errors are pointed out. Say... like the errors in arctic temperature data presented at WUWT pointed out by Tamino here, here and here in the past few days, for example? Or perhaps a post or two by Lucia exposing and damning those very large errors and damning the lack of correction or retraction of teh associated claims? It's a serious problem that when relatively minor errors are pointed out in places where the consilience of evidence is accepted, there is a massive fuss about them, whichever direction the errors go, and regardless of whether the errors are pointed out by those who agree with the consensus or those who disagree. Alternatively, complete garbage is regularly published in places that disagree with the consensus on AGW, and yet we hardly hear a cheep from those who obviously should know better.
  12. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Lucia... Please note that Dana is a man. No need for further "s/he" references.
  13. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    To be fair, Lucia wrote a blog post on the subject before I updated the post, and maybe even before she commented here. Then again, she could have just commented here noting the problem without writing a blog post, in which case, as we found out, the problem would have quickly been corrected.
    I commented here then immediately wrote the blog post. The issue of Skeptical Science revising posts and the blog owner seeming to forget this has happened and then inserting inline replies happens to be a 'live' topic at blogs. Under the circumstances, I judged posting immediately the most appropriate thing to do under the circumstance and I still judge it so. As it stands, people witness first hand how you responded. Had I done otherwise, they could not witness this. This was part of my motive. The other motive is to host discussion of features of your blog post-- and as you can see from my previous post, I have opinions on issues beyond the mistake in the computation of the trend.
  14. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Albatross-- My post was probably written and published before Dana posted any thanks. Don't let the time stamps fool you - it's still Sept 22 in my time zone. I'm glad to see Dana acknowledged the corrections -- including Charlie A. But it happens that I don't think the miscalculation of trends digitization is the only flaw here. I happen to think Dana should have a) Included other observational data sets like HadCrut and NOAA. (If s/he thinks they are inferior GISTemp, s/he should say why he thinks so.) b) Discussed whether the comparison in his figure ends with an El Nino year vs. La Nina year. (BTW: If the observations ends with 2010, it ends with an El Nino). The models average over numerous cases so its not important for the models but it matters for the observations. c) Mention the exact year when the AR4 was published rather than merely saying it was published "recently". After mentioning the year, he should explain why his comparison starts in 2000. (Whatever the reason for his choice, he should give it.) Of course Dana is not required to do all these things particularly since Skeptical Science is a blog like any other. But it's hardly fair to complain that people at other blogs are expressing their opinion on these shortcomings merely because Dana did acknowledge that someone people found obvious errors in his first post and brought them to his attention.
  15. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Since critics will be linking to the original post, it would be worth adding a note there which points out that this revised version has been posted.
  16. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Crosspost: The text in my above post @ 40 should probably read: "Sadly I see that this incident is already being distorted and spun in certain quarters-- and that after Dana graciously thanked them for their feedback." Regardless, it certainly seems that some people are trying to use the situation to their advantage.
  17. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Fair point Dana, The text in my above post @ 4 should probably read: "Sadly I see that this incident is already being distorted and spun in certain quarters-- and that after Dana graciously thanked them for their feedback." Regardless, it certainly seems that some people are trying to use the situation to their advantage.
  18. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    To be fair, Lucia wrote a blog post on the subject before I updated the post, and maybe even before she commented here. Then again, she could have just commented here noting the problem without writing a blog post, in which case, as we found out, the problem would have quickly been corrected. To each his (or her) own. I hope the matter is now considered resolved.
  19. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    From another thread here at SkS: "Sadly I see that this incident is already being distorted and spun in certain quarters-- and that after Dana graciously thanked them for their feedback. Must be desperate times and/ or a slow week for "lukewarmers" and 'skeptics' if this is something that gets them so excited. "
  20. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Sadly I see that this incident is already being distorted and spun in certain quarters-- and that after Dana graciously thanked them for their feedback. Must be desperate times and/ or a slow week for "lukewarmers" and 'skeptics' if this is something that gets them so excited.
  21. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    I'd like everyone (especially critics and 'skeptics') to note four things here: 1) The error has been acknowledged 2) The error was corrected with lightning speed 3) The people who identified the error were thanked and their names highlighted at the top of the post 4) The correction did not change the primary point or conclusion of the post, as far as I can tell.
  22. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Wow I didn't even have to wait until morning. Lucia sure is quick on the draw.
  23. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Thanks skywatcher - I'm sure I'll be lambasted anyway! It seems like certain parties are looking for any excuse to lambast SkS and myself these days. I view the increased scrutiny as a sign that SkS is becoming more effective, and the lambasting as a sign that we're viewed as more of a threat. It's a compliment really :-) It will be interesting to wake up tomorrow and see how many 'skeptic' blogs have posts about me making a minor (I mean, ginormous!) error.
  24. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    All good by me, thanks Dana! You've done a great job on a lot of posts here, and I didn't want to see you lambasted for any problems with this one.
  25. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    skywatcher - fair enough, I've added a hat tip to Charlie as well, though I still don't interpret his comments in the same way. But I don't mind adding an acknowledgment that he raised initial concerns about the quality of the digitization, and have done so in the updated post. lucia - please tone it down. The quote you reference is in regards to Figure 3. Charlie questioned the accuracy of the 0.12°C trend, and rightly so. His claims of a 0.2°C trend, however, were in reference to the 2000 to 2020 trend. I've acknowledged and corrected the problem. Can we move on now please?
  26. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    Whoops thanks Alex, a holdover from the previous version.
  27. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Dana, I think you should acknowledge Charlie A in the updated post as well as Lucia and Zeke. My reading of Charlie A's comments is that he was correct in his observations, pertaining to the 2000-2010 part of your Figure 3. The data provided by Zeke and Lucia merely confirm that. As I've found to my cost before, digitising images is a tricky business, especially if the scale of the original is small! Obviously, it doesn't alter several facts - first, that the AR4 projection is so far doing a perfectly reasonable job of estimating warming, though as you say it is very early to judge; and second that the trend present through the 1990s actually increases if you include the last 10 years of data, even though the trend for the last 10 years alone is slightly lower (as Robert notes in #18) - highlighting the caution with which one should apply value to short-term trends and the strength of longer-term trends.
  28. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Dana-- to 2010 ??" I really don't know how you misunderstood this. But blog comments being what they are, I'm willing to believe you did. My interpretation is that he also points out that your trend also disagrees with the trend for the longer period. This additional information ought to have given you pause and motivated you to double check your digitization or computation. Even just reviewing figure 10.4 which you digitized and noticing the small curvature ought to have given you pause. As for the recentness of the AR4: It was published in 2007-- four years ago. I don't know if that's counted as recent or ancient these days. My understanding is it will be superceded by he AR5 pretty darn soon. The age of these things needs to be translated into dog-years.
    Response:

    [DB] "As for the recentness of the AR4:  It was published in 2007-- four years ago. I don't know if that's counted as recent or ancient these days."

    Dana1981 was speaking from the perspective of having published posts recently on the FAR, SAR and TAR.

  29. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4 (update)
    The caption in Figure 3 reads since 1990, but the data shows from 2000.
  30. It's the ocean
    Seems like the oceans aren't increasing in heat. What does this do to the AGW theory? Dr. Trenberth's 2009 lament that: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't.. Our observing system is inadequate." Note that Dr. Trenberth doesn't seem to countenance the possibility that the whole anthropogenic thesis - that the climate is driven by man-made industrial emissions - might be wrong. It is the absence of the real world to follow the models that is the alleged "travesty." "Subsurface temperature trends in the better-sampled parts of the World Ocean are reported. Where there are sufficient observations for this analysis, there is large spatial variability of 51-yr trends in the upper ocean, with some regions showing cooling in excess of 3°C," http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JPO3005.1 A cooling ocean would falsify the validity of the AGW radiative forcing theory.
    Response:

    [DB] "Seems like the oceans aren't increasing in heat." and "A cooling ocean would falsify the validity of the AGW radiative forcing theory."

    Except for a lack of evidence to support those assertions.  Trenberth's most recent paper shows significant sequestering of OHC from the upper ocean into the deep ocean.  Coupled with Hansen's aerosol forcings hypothesis, the global energy budget appears to likely close.

    A refocus on science rather than unsubstantiated speculation would be of help to you.

  31. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    DB--Thanks.
  32. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    lucia, if you read the next line in Charlie's comment, he's referring to the text in the AR4 stating that the trend from 2000 to 2020 is 0.2°C per decade. I will say that if I'm misinterpreting Charlie's comments, and if he was saying the trend from 2000 to 2010 in Figure 2 looked closer to 0.2°C per decade, then he was approximately right (and if that's the case, he's got some impressive eyesight). That's just not how I read his comments, but I could be wrong. As I note in the updated post, our digitization of the graph was unfortunately not very accurate, due to the small scale of Figure 2. That's my mistake - I should have thought to look for a data file, since the AR4 was published so recently, rather than relying on the digitization. Mea culpa on that one, and again, thanks to you and Zeke for pointing me to the data.
  33. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Dang-- No preview or edit function on comments. "is NOT 0.21 C/decade." should read "is not 0.12 C/decade".
    Response:

    [DB] "No preview or edit function on comments"

    A 'Preview' button may be found immediately to the right of the 'Submit' button.  The Previewed comment will then appear below the comment box.

  34. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Dana
    ucia - Charlie's comment was about the 2000 to 2020 trend. This post doesn't address the trend beyond mid-2011.
    Charlie specifically askes you about the trend from 2000-2010 and does so repeatedly. In comment 1:
    Are we to understand that 0.12C/decade is the trend for the projection for A2 scenario from 2000 to 2010 ??
    The correct answer should be "whoops. No. The trend for the projection for the A2 scenarios from 2000 to 2001 is NOT 0.21 C/decade. In his second comment (numbered 3 here) he writes
    I do not see how it is possible that the slope from 2000 to 2010 is 0.12C/decade. I see a slope of 0.2C/decade, not the 0.12C that you see.
    Note the dates: 2000 to 2010. The correct response is that the slope from 2000 to 2010 -- the dates charlie mention quite specifically-- is not 0.12 C/dec. Charlie is correct to not "see" this slope. Charlie-- who, I should say appears to be being stupendously polite for a blog visitor even asks you to check the trend from 2010-2020 and you answer
    Charlie - yes, the AR4 Scenario A2 model mean trend between 2010 and 2020 is close to 0.28°C. Figure 3 includes the Figure 2 data between 1990 and 2000.
    Your answer is incorrect. The A2 trend from 2010-2020 is not close to 0.28C. You bungled this. You waved away charlie. I don't know where you went wrong, but you messed up. I should think your re-write should acknoweldge that charlie a) was correct b) was obviously asking about the trend from 2000-2010, specifically calling out these years. Or course, you are not required to do this. But, your notion that Charlie was only discussing 2000-2020 is absurd.
  35. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    lucia - Charlie's comment was about the 2000 to 2020 trend. This post doesn't address the trend beyond mid-2011. I got the data from Zeke's link, and have a new figure. Will post an update shortly.
  36. The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    Philippe and DB, that would be about as exciting as watching an iron ball rust, but the physical model that such a conversation would generate would be an all-time classic. Ok, ok -- I'm tempted, but DNFTT it shall be.
  37. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    dana-- Will your update acknowledge that Charlie A was correct and you were incorrect about the correct magnitude of the trends?
  38. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    tblakeslee#89: "long list of authors on that paper. Almost like a petition signed by many supporters." No. All high energy particle physics papers have a large number of authors. It is standard practice in that highly collaborative field, where experiments are designed by one team, run by another and interpreted by a third; a process that sometimes lasts many years. "Alfven won the Nobel prize ... so his work was ignored by the establishment." Interesting. Did you see this month's update from the ACE satellite team? It's about how quiet the sun was through 2010, concluding thus: We know of no dynamics that can accomplish this reduction other than magnetic reconnection below the Alfven critical point. So, multiple authors does not a petition make. Alfven? Not ignored. Let's stick to facts from this point forward.
  39. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    #20 - Paul, lovely chart! A very original way to demonstrate an important principle about cherry-picking trends. Some less- and more-experienced visitors to this site (including me) could learn a thing or two from it.
  40. Review of Rough Winds: Extreme Weather and Climate Change by James Powell
    Adelady, I caught that Catalyst episode more by accident than intention and thought it was quite interesting for it's relevance to ocean mixing as much as wave impacts on coastlines. IIUC much of the acceleration of Antarctic ice loss is attributed to warmer ocean temperatures eating away at the edges and reducing how much glacial flows are held back at those edges; would this data indicate the Southern Ocean would have less sea surface warming during summer (warmer surface water mixed deeper) and greater transport of heat out of the ocean during winter (colder surface water mixed deeper)? Presumably bigger waves impacting the Antarctic coast could also change the rates of ice shelf and glacial terminal disintegration both directly by wave energy and indirectly by more rapid mixing and circulation of melt and ocean water near to the coast. In any case the length of time the study covers could be too short to be more than suggestive of a solid trend of such impacts. It will be interesting to hear some reactions to this study.
  41. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    89, tblakeslee, Do you have any actual evidence of this supposed conspiracy to squelch the advancement of science? [Which, by the way, is a clear violation of this site's comments policy?]
  42. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Thanks Zeke and lucia. If I have time, I'll try that approach and update the post.
  43. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    That kind of language is necessary to get a paper published in today's environment. The CERN paper also took years to negotiate and ended up worded in the weakest possible way. Notice the long list of authors on that paper. Almost like a petition signed by many supporters. You are right that much more work needs to be done to prove the whole theory but it is unfortunate that rational discussion has to be done in coded language to avoid being banished. The poor understanding of the sun's electrical nature is another example where the establishment has prevented progress to preserve their reputations. Alfven won the Nobel prize back in 1970 for his 1942 breakthrough in understanding of the true nature of the sun. He was an electrical engineer (as I am) so his work was ignored by the establishment. Now they will soon be forced to accept it. Please read this recent paper rediscovering his work: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110801094253.htm
    Response:

    [DB] Imputations of conspiracy betray a paucity of scientific basis for your position.  And are also a contravention of the Comments Policy; future such violations will result in comment deletion.  FYI.

  44. SkS Responses to Pielke Sr. Questions
    Having followed this and other climate sites for a few years now, I began "counting down" to Dr Pielke's exit from this thread after Albatross' excellent post @ 115. The thing we must all remember is that the cultural norms of appropriate debate and discussion within scientific communities are not the same as among so called 'skeptic' communities. One continually sees participants in threads like these push towards evidence-based and rigorous debate (usually, to be sure, MUCH gentler than the way academics will argue over a dinner table)with 'skeptics' who are really in the business of simulated scientific critique which claims to engage with climate science, but is actually not directed to scientists at all. As a consequence, there is a point in every such debate when the 'skeptic' must find a reason to exit from the debate, from outside the true argument. John Hartz, naturally, as a first-time moderator you are concerned to keep discussion on topic and keep discussion fair and reasonable...both of which, for my part at least, I think you did well. I wouldn't be too concerned about what has been 'on topic' here -this particular thread has been very instructive in terms of what it reveals about how people with different agendas go about their rhetoric. That in itself is a critical part of our education about these debates.
    Moderator Response: [John Hartz] Thanks for the pat on the back. This thread has morphed into an Open Thread much to my pleasant surprise. I'm enjoying the conversation and hope others are as well.
  45. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC AR4
    Lucia, You don't even need to average them; the IPCC provides the global multimodel mean average temps here Just use 20C3M data for 1990 to 1999 and A2 data from 2000 to 2010. Checking the slopes, I get 0.236 C per decade from 1990-2010 and 0.177 C per decade from 2000 to 2010. You might want to check your figure for the last decade Dana.
    Moderator Response: [grypo] Thank you. Fixed link.
  46. Climate sensitivity is low
    Just a quick comment - the question about glacial dust would certainly be something for carbon-cycle models to worry about but for a climate model, what matters is how much CO2 eventually ended up in the atmosphere. This is a known (from gas bubble) so model doesnt need to calculate it. Its tricky to see how uncertainties from glacial aerosols could lead to lower sensitivity given that the rise in CO2 is known. Albedo feedbacks would be different last glacial termination (they are so in the models), but can be reasonably estimated. (area covered by ice).
  47. Philippe Chantreau at 09:36 AM on 23 September 2011
    The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    Agreed with #285. Doug Cotton's site is the venue of choice for you Damorbel.
    Response:

    [DB] Added link.

  48. Review of Rough Winds: Extreme Weather and Climate Change by James Powell
    The climate events described by Dr Powell are mild compared to what can - and should - be expected later this century.
  49. Debunking Climate Myths from Politicians
    Thanks. I'll pass that to the skeptic - I'm sure nothing will change his mind but it may be a small start.
  50. The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    damorbel#283: "Venus behaves like a gassy planet rather than a rocky one." Venus' average density is 5.2 gm/cc; a rocky start for your point. But this thread is not about Venus. "the distinction I draw between a body with a an internal heat source (a star) and a body without an internal heat source" I'll bite. Stars and planets are not the same. A planet receives energy from its nearby star; heat is retained by the planet when it has a greenhouse atmosphere. What was your point? BTW, you might have a look at Doug Cotton's 'earth-climate' web site and set him straight over the question of internal heating.

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