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Comments 74901 to 74950:

  1. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Ditto what CBD said in #147. It's understandable that Dr. Pielke would want to defend those he has worked with and believes are good and honest scientists. However, Dr. Pielke has refused to acknowledge the behavior of his colleagues outside of their collaborations (i.e. misinforming Congress, the American public, engaging in real ad hominems, etc. Apparently only the behavior Dr. Pielke witnesses firsthand counts. And that's a problem, because then not only does he fail to hold his colleagues accountable for their unacceptable behavior, but he criticizes those of us who do try to hold them accountable.
  2. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    True but irrelevant. The candidate system must be capable of power amplification. The output variance (power) in the passive system you describe (unit forward gain, attenuated feedback) can never exceed the input variance. In the system we are considering, the output variance due to Milankovitch forcing exceeds the solar variance from same.
  3. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    JohnH#12: I was hoping you were kidding; it's just so easy to put the blame for all the world's ills on the poor cosmic rays. Let's see: LBL's muon page gives an average surface flux of 167 muons per second per sq meter, with an average of 4 GeV each; convert eV per sec to watts; that's a delightfully toasty 10^-7 W/sq meter.
  4. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Rob Honeycutt wrote: "Am I reading this correct, that Dr Pielke is only concerned about what he considers derogatory representations (regardless of the content of the actual posts) of specifically colleagues whom he has directly worked or interacted with?" In fairness to Dr. Pielke, I don't think his point in citing his connection with Spencer and Christy is to say 'only scientists I know deserve respect'. Rather, I think his point is that he has direct experience and thus 'knows' that they 'produce good work' or some such. However, he also 'knows' that Anthony Watts is dedicated to the highest scientific standards, so... Essentially, it comes down to Dr. Pielke citing his 'opinion' and then refusing to say anything about the (frankly overwhelming) evidence to the contrary. At which point it really boils down to the old saw about people being entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. Believing that Anthony Watts is dedicated to high scientific standards is certainly NOT a reality based 'opinion'. If it were, Dr. Pielke could defend his position against the many cited examples to the contrary rather than just evading them. This is also not 'skepticism', not even "one-sided" skepticism. It is denial.
  5. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat (@ 63) If you re-categorize "positive feedback" as "amplification" that might help to better understand "positive feedback" in the context of climate science. We could consider the dominant feedback to any atmospheric warming (whether greenhouse-forced or solar-forced); i.e. the water vapour feedback. Say the primary warming from enhanced [CO2] is 1 oC, and the water vapour feedback results in an additional primary warming of x oC, the total warming is something like 1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 ... which is 1/(1-x). So if the water vapour response to a 1 oC warming is 0.5 oC then the total warming when everything comes to equilibrium is 1/(1-0.5) = 2 oC. The same argument applies for other feedbacks. In other words there doesn't have to be any "negative feedback"...under the effect of a forcing the system evolves to a new equilibrium. If you're interested in what's actually happening during the transition from glacial to interglacial transition try these papers entitled Ice Age Terminations, and The Last Glacial Termination, respectively.
  6. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    I wonder what Dr. Pielke would do if presented with a list of several hundred actual ad hominems issued by himself and the many scientists with which he's worked over the years (I could harvest several hundred from WUWT alone, never mind Spencer), as opposed to the few that he accuses SkS of committing (which aren't even ad hominems). Would he then admit his error? I feel that this thread has given Dr. Pielke every opportunity to illustrate that he is not a hypocrite, and yet he has failed to avail himself of those opportunities. So be it.
  7. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    @ muoncounter #9: About the size of a pinhead I would imagine. My question about cosmic rays was tongue-in-cheek. PS -- I'm suffering from Pielke-fatigue syndrom so please forgive me.
  8. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Stig Mikalsen: Well said! Thank you.
  9. Just Deserts: Winning the 2011 Eureka Prize
    I wanted to belatedly add my congrats. This site is simply astoundingly good - and the amount of work involved must be mind-boggling. Well deserved.
  10. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    "The heat added to each cubic metre of water every year would equal the body heat from a mouse swimming in that water for a few minutes! " Hmmm...I don't know about you, but I've noticed a substantial increase in mice rummaging through my garden recently. Next climate myth, coming right up! ;-)
  11. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    I propose SkSc add another button, "Skepticism a’la Pielke sr". As far as I can tell, he has here been reminded by moderator 7 times (8?) what the thread is about. Despite the post, the update, the moderator reminders and some 70+(?) relevant comments he has just refused to answer simple questions. He has refused to either support or withdraw his unsupported and false accusations and he is still unwilling to be skeptical about his fellow "skeptics". Instead he has kept on diverting attention and defending one "side". Doesn’t this behavior look oh so familiar? Look into his blog and his history and the readers can then judge for themselves. He himself probably thinks he is "constructive" and "balanced", but just take a closer look and it becomes clear that his embarrassing performance in this thread has a simple explanation. Pielke sr. is utterly one-sided, and not much better than the colleagues he prefer to defend. You can even start very simple, with his "I have worked with Anthony and he is devoted to the highest level of scientific robustness", contrasted with his view of SkSc ("If you want to be taken more seriously by others outside of your view on the climate issue, you should be provide more balance"). What a denial. Then look at his "I object to personal attacks by anyone on any side of this issue". And contrast that with what he actually does; defending the misinformants (sorry) "he has worked with", and ... who else? Revkin once in 2005? What a denial. One more idea is that Albatross could "condense the many questions directed at Dr. Pielke into a few pertinent questions so that he is not overwhelmed". Those questions Pielke can post on his own blog, and answer them there. I don’t think Pielke will ever actually answer, but hey Dr. Pielke: I will be able to admit I was wrong.
  12. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Dana69#468: "it seems you cherry picked" Not. I specifically addressed my comment to your objections to the word 'denier'. "the fact that the majority of scientists no longer debate the subject should not lead one to conclude that the debate is concluded," I'm not sure what you mean by that. Would it be better if there was widespread disagreement among the majority of scientists? " that we have an answer, or that the science is settled." You've agreed with the physics, as you stated above. That is the science; that much is settled. " Much of what we’ve learned suggests that we actually know less than we previously thought we did." Really? Satellite temperature and ice extent measurements started 30 years ago. We do indeed know a heck of a lot more now than we did then. "The projection arc is upwards of 100+ years." So? All usable scientific theories are both prohibitive and predictive: they must specify what will and what will not happen. Climate is inherently a long time scale study; the statement 'here is what the current understanding of the science predicts given these scenarios' is entirely appropriate. You speak of politics: If we, as a society, do not pay attention to the full range of potential outcomes that science can forecast, we are not making an educated decisions. We are in the position illustrated on the cover to John's book. Why shy away from discussing the worst-case scenarios if they are part of the spectrum of possibles? That is why the deniers (oops, I said the bad word) of today are playing with fire (and flood).
  13. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat - Reply on the far more appropriate thread here.
  14. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    jpat A gain < 1.0 can still provide a several-fold amplification: Output = Forcing / ( 1 - gain ) A gain of 0.9 will result in an amplification of 10.0, as the sum will be 0.9 + 0.9^2 + 0.9^3 + ..., summing to 10x.
  15. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    Good debunking of yet another climate myth! MarkR in #6: You were faster than me with your comment about the 30% of reflected solar energy, the 102 Watts shown to the left in figure 6! Something that should put geothermal heat in the correct climate perspective: A couple of years ago I debated this issue with a denier on a Norwegian science website. My two central arguments were exactly what is mentioned here: The energy flow from the Earth’s interior is several thousand times smaller than that from the sun, and there are no reasons to believe is has changed much for millions of years. He then claimed that undersea volcanoes are a major heat source and that they can explain the recent warming. After some research on the heat capacity of water and the energy output from volcanoes measured from satellites, I came up with an interesting calculation: If 1000 undersea volcanoes, each with the same energy output as Etna in 1992 (12 gigawatts), had continuous eruptions, it would take them about 15,000 years to heat the oceans by 1 K if all that heat stayed in the oceans and wasn’t lost to the atmosphere and space. The heat added to each cubic metre of water every year would equal the body heat from a mouse swimming in that water for a few minutes!
  16. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Rob Honeycutt: It would be prudent for SkS to ask Dr. Pielke for a complete list of the other scientists that he has worked with during his career.
  17. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    Feeback with a gain < |1.0| is always stable. Think of an operational amplifier with gain < 1.0 - stable. Yes of course but if the open-loop gain <1 the closed loop gain is also <1. We are I thought, only considering a system capable of amplifying the small forcing induced by the Milankovitch cycles.
  18. apiratelooksat50 at 07:14 AM on 18 September 2011
    Climate Communication: Making Science Heard and Understood
    My request was an honest attempt to allow the followers of this site to design a survey that my classes could disseminate and analyze results. Very, very few people offered anything constructive (with the exception of Jonathan, Muon, etc...), instead most of what was posted was kvetching. The idea has evolved, but I seriously would like a survey that I could present in a before/after context to the students, and eventually to the local public (science department, general faculty, etc...). You obviously know my stance and question anything coming from underneath my sphere of influence. I think it would be enlightning to all involved to post a survey from a pro-AGW person and compare the results. It is very difficult to create an unbiased survey. I welcome the opportunity from the truly learned people on SKS to educate myself and my students.
  19. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    "Moderator Response: You do know that "positive feedback" does not necessarily mean runaway feedback, right?" Condescension is usually not conducive to dialog. We're running into cross-discipline semantics. Positive feedback is self-enforcing and will operate on any noise present to select and reenforce components near the system eigenvalues. The amplitude at this frequency will grow without bound until a limiting mechanism is encountered. This limiting mechanism is best viewed as a countervailing negative feedback which works to constrain the poles to the jw axis. #57 - I was not trying to postulate a novel negative feedback mechanism. I was referring to whatever you want to call the thing that prevents thermal runaway. So rephrasing my original question, why won't this same mechanism mitigate the effects of AGW, limiting the temperature excursion to that which would of been encountered naturally?
  20. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Am I reading this correct, that Dr Pielke is only concerned about what he considers derogatory representations (regardless of the content of the actual posts) of specifically colleagues whom he has directly worked or interacted with? So, Monckton's Myths and Lindzen's Illusions are okay? (Assuming he's not worked with Lindzen.) And therefore, also, all the derogatory representations made toward Trenberth, Mann, Phil Jones, and a long list of others, is also fine and dandy? I'm trying to determine if he is only offended by what he considers derogatory representations of people whom he chooses to agree with or if it's truly limited to those whom he has worked with.
  21. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat - Please read the link you were pointed to. Feeback with a gain < |1.0| is always stable. Think of an operational amplifier with gain < 1.0 - stable. There may be oscillation enroute to the stable state, depending on lag elements, but no runaway will be seen with a gain less than 1.0, as each cycle of feedback is lesser and lesser, damping out. As to the Milankovitch cycles - feedback operates on forcing changes both positive and negative. This means that when orbital mechanics decrease insolation, that negative change in forcing is amplified by feedbacks as the earlier positive change was. The forcing acts as a control knob.
  22. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat - please see CO2 lags temperature.
  23. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    #57 - Ok, we've identified the limiting mechanisms. But unless you are saying the system is self-oscillatory, you still need to explain how the small forcing function can turn the battleship around. The CO2 lags by 800 years or so. After the orbital forcing turns negative, we see falling temps while the CO2 is still rising and the GH effect is near maximum. How is this possible? Is there a paper someone can point me to that provides a mathematical model for this?
  24. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke's parting shot reminds me of the chorus of "Charlie and the MTA" made famous by the Kingston Trio. Did he ever return? No he never returned And his fate is still unlearn'd He may ride forever 'neath the streets of Boston He's the man who never returned.
  25. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    CBDunkerson - I am unaware of any system theory which differentiates positive feedback from "run-away feedback". Feedback is either regenerative (left half plane poles) or regenerative (RHP poles). All regenerative system run away unless there exists some limiting mechanism.
  26. Dikran Marsupial at 06:30 AM on 18 September 2011
    Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat The fact that CO2 radiative forcing only increases logarithmically with concentration, and IIRC the solubility of CO2 in water decreases linearly with temperature is enough to mean that run away heating and cooling is unlikely. There is no need to introduce any feedbacks we don't already know about.
  27. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Dana: "The main 'bone of contention' between both campus seems to be a matter of degree." What are these campuses of which you speak? You describe the position of one campus (IPCC). What's the position of the other campus, and what comprises this other campus? Dana: "Why, because it is no longer a discussion of science, but of politics. Along with the insertion of the precautionary principle as applied to future behavior. It stops being about what is, and becomes what ought." When is science not political? When is a decision to fund one study and not another not political? When is the decision to accept publication of one well-done study and not another not political? When are the results of a study that claims with confidence significant human impacts (positive and/or negative) not political? Why do we study "what is" if not to serve the determination of "what ought"? Note that the NIPCC is not an alternative IPCC. The primary purpose of the NIPCC (determined by its actions and statements) is to be critical of the IPCC. The NIPCC has not produced a comprehensive, institutionally-supported theory that serves as an alternative to AGW.
  28. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Although we have not used the term "rogues gallery" on SkS, personally I don't have a problem with it, depending on how the term is defined. The so-called "rogues" are those who very frequently misinform the public and policymakers on climate related issues, and thus are deserving of their own series of myth rebuttals. If Dr. Pielke wants to classify his colleagues "rogues" for this behavior, I'm fine with that. What I have a problem with is complaining about their "rogue" classification while denying and tacitly endorsing their reprehensible behavior.
  29. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    "jpat, your assertion that "there must be some strong negative feedback...." is an evidence-free assertion. Why "must" there be such a thing?" I should have been more precise. If we hypothesize that CO2 causes regenerative amplification and this positive feedback is the reason small Milankovitch solar radiance variations can result in large global temperature variations, then we must also account for why there hasn't been run away heating or cooling in the past and why we see in the ice record, millennial periods of falling (rising) temps with rising (falling) CO2. Put another way, how can a forcing that's too small to account for the observed variance, overcome the the maximum positive feedback seen at the temperature maximum when CO2 concentrations are near their maximum unless their exists be some negative feedback that comes into play near the extremes? One other possibility occurs to me. Non-linear, regenerative feedback systems whose complex poles are too dissipative to sustain oscillation can be subject to injection locking to a small period forcing. The output becomes quasi-periodic, synced to the input signal but with substantial phase noise. I presume this hypothesis has been examined and rejected.
    Moderator Response: You do know that "positive feedback" does not necessarily mean runaway feedback, right?
  30. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Dana69 - The NIPCC is a lobbying/advocacy group, derived from SEPP, and closely tied to Dr. Fred Singer and the Heartland Institute. Their Interiem Report, with the rather telling title "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate", is examined here. It does not pass muster. You need to examine your sources a bit more closely.
  31. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke is making another false statement when he says "Please alert me when you do if you are interested in a scientific discourse with me". This thread is very much about The Science, it is about Dr. Pielke's (and his colleagues'/associates') one-sided skepticism of The Science. Dr. Pielke also seems to be under the incorrect impression that the sole purpose of SkS right now is to answer his selected questions-- well, we have other projects and responsibilities that require attention. Dr. Pielke is free to also discuss the science on the dozens of other threads that deal with scientific issues such as OHC etc. Dr. Pielke has elected to use the term "rouges' gallery", nowhere on SkS do we refer to the buttons in that manner. Those buttons appear with other buttons such as "OA not OK" and "Interactive history of climate science".
  32. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Would I be right in saying that Dr Pielke failed to answer any of the questions and requests pertinent to this thread made of him by the SkS team? This is despite a whole sequence of verbose posts by him attempting to divert the conversation from the topic of this thread. Clearly he's not willing to call Christy and Spencer out for their bad science and worse science communication, nor is he willing to support his allegation of ad hominem aimed at SkS. He can discuss the science at any one of hundreds of threads on this site, and it would indeed be interesting to understand where he thinks there is error in these posts, or to see if he has moved on from his history of cherry-picking as noted by RealClimate and on an earlier thread here at SkS. If he is afraid of criticising his colleagues, that doesn't make him a very good scientist.
    Response:

    [DB] "Would I be right in saying that Dr Pielke failed to answer any of the questions and requests pertinent to this thread made of him by the SkS team?"

    10-Roger on that.  The inescapable conclusion one is forced to draw is that Dr. Pielke under no circumstances will admit to having been wrong.  Thus, he cedes the Field of Truth to Skeptical Science.

  33. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr Pielke, I agree with you that the labelling of scientists here is unfortunate. In the same spirit I hope you can acknowledge that the disinformation put out to Congress that by Dr Christy was also very undesirable? I look forward to you engaging in the science of OHC on the link provided by Albatross above. Specifically you never replied to my point then that "the variability in the monthly data is not just a small amount, but at least an order of magnitude too large to justify your claim that a monthly snapshot can provide a planetary heat balance on that timescale." I'd love a response thanks
  34. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Muoncounter, While your comments are appreciated, it seems you cherry picked comments for your own purposes. The 3 main points promoted by the climate change community are: * 1) that “global warming” is occurring, * 2) that “anthropogenic global warming” is occurring, or * 3) that “global warming” is unquestionably caused by anthropogenic causes. My comments indicated agreement with all of them, so there does not seem to be any divergent thoughts regarding the physics. That being said the fact that the majority of scientists no longer debate the subject should not lead one to conclude that the debate is concluded, that we have an answer, or that the science is settled. Much of what we’ve learned suggests that we actually know less than we previously thought we did. The main "bone of contention" between both campus seems to be a matter of degree. The IPCC indicates the potential for warming of 1.8 to a high of 6.4 "SPM.3. Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century. {10.5, 10.6, Table 10.7}" http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html The projection arc is upwards of 100+ years. The reported catastrophic events that are projected to occur, based on the upper scale of the chart, are what most so called "deniers" tend to push back from. Why, because it is no longer a discussion of science, but of politics. Along with the insertion of the precautionary principle as applied to future behavior. It stops being about what is, and becomes what ought. The NIPCC is an organization created with credible scientists as it members. Smear tactics aside, they are qualified experts in the fields of climate, physics and geology.
  35. Philippe Chantreau at 05:33 AM on 18 September 2011
    One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    If Dr Pielke wants everyone to focus on the science then he should have started there instead of throwing accusations against SkS that he has so far been unable to substantiate. It's cheap to yell "ad-hom" on a site without comments allowed and then, when called out on it, come here and say "let's talk about something else." The lack of focus on the science is exactly the reason why Spencer and Christy's statements were named the way they were on SkS. And that, once again, does not consitute an ad-hom, as we were reminded by numerous posts. We are all still waiting on a quote from SkS using ad-hom to attempt an attack on the UAH data, another unsubstantiated accusation. As for Anthony Watts, he keeps being mentioned because of Dr Pielke's association with him and the problem of double standards in scientific skepticism, which is the subject of this thread. The opinion of many contributors to SkS is that the scientific skepticism as WUWT is so one sided as to be hardly deserving of the word. Accusations of fraud and questioning of the motives of very reputable scientists are also so common there that it is truly surprising that they have escaped lawsuits for so long. I asked Dr Pielke earlier if he could point us to an instance of him defending scientists subjected to such accusations on WUWT (or elsewhere) but I haven't found a link yet. Anthony Watts committed to highest level of scientific robustness? Like when he allows a post where percent of snow cover are averaged without area weighing, leading to outrageously stupid numbers? Like the carbonic snow episode? It was rather amusing to see Watts himself encourage a little high school type experiment because neither him nor Goddard nor the posting crowd could understand and "trust" the phase diagram of CO2. Should we consider that this is what Dr Pielke consider as dedication to scientific robustness or did he mean someting else? There is also the occurrence in which Watts published the working address of a scientist and encouraged his readers to physically go there to challenge him. Is that also a manifestation of dedication to scientific robustness? I wonder.
  36. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke wrote: "I raised the issue on my weblog that I view the SkS labeling as ad hominems because I have published with John Christy and have directly interacted with Roy Spencer. They do not deserve such labeling." And yet, when invited to defend their work by showing how the analysis in those threads is wrong you have declined to do so. So... you say they do not deserve to be accused of having engaged in false statements / bad science (e.g. "slips ups"), but you decline to dispute any of the evidence presented in those threads? I don't think many people will apologize for holding the extensively cited evidence that Spencer, Christy, and others DO deserve to be called out for false and misleading claims over your unsubstantiated opinion to the contrary.
  37. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke, I would suggest that if you have an issue with your colleagues being categorized as "rogues", as you put it, that you request that they stop behaving as such, for example by frequently misinforming the public and policymakers on climate issues. And as others have noted, these categorizations certainly do not stoop to the level of another of your colleagues, Anthony Watts, with his "Al Gore is an Idiot" category.
  38. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Dana69#466: "“denier” is a pejorative term ambiguously accusing a person of denying:" Then let's not be ambiguous. A 'denier' is simply one who is in denial. Denial is defined very simply as a defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. This includes: simple denial - deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether minimisation - admit the fact but deny its seriousness (a combination of denial and rationalization) projection - admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility. There is nothing in any aspect of this definition that is pejorative. The word 'ignorant' (in your next to last paragraph) does not appear in the meaning of 'denier.' Pejorative, however, is defined as words or grammatical forms that connote negativity and express contempt or distaste. That in and of itself is an opinion and not an 'ad hominem attack.' Argumentum ad hominem requires an attempt to negate the truth of a claim by pointing out a negative characteristic or belief of the person supporting it. As quoted above, 'denier' is a description of someone's state of mind and that is not specifically negative. As far as your attempt at equating IPCC and NIPCC, you'll have to provide some substantiation of NIPCC's scientific credibility. Simply quoting their statement here is at the same level as an unsubstantiated opinion.
  39. Dikran Marsupial at 04:57 AM on 18 September 2011
    One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Prof Pielke You may well feel that Spencer and Christy do not deserve the titles associated with their series of articles, however I don't think that Al Gore deserves to be called an idiot either, which as I pointed out is the categorisation of threads relating to him at WUWT. Do you think that is wrong as well. If it is O.K. to level ad-hominems at anyone you think deserves it, then indeed you are being one-sided. If on the other hand you are against ad-hominems, then how about directly criticising WUWT for the labelling of Al Gore as an idiot?
  40. Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths
    jpat, the statement "given that we're here to ask" suggests that you have an incorrect understanding of feedback effects. There is nothing inherent in positive feedbacks which would prevent us from 'being here'. My guess is that you are mixing up 'positive feedback' with 'runaway feedback' or assuming that feedbacks continue indefinitely and thus 'require' a "strong negative feedback" to kick in at some point and 'overwhelm' the constant positive feedback. That isn't how it works. Once a forcing stops the feedbacks associated with it perforce will do so as well unless they are so powerful as to be continually self-perpetuating (which no one has suggested is currently the case for AGW feedbacks). Basically, when the orbital forcing behind the glacial cycle ended the CO2 and ice albedo feedbacks it was causing also ended (not immediately, but relatively soon thereafter). At that point there were no significant positive forcings or feedbacks and thus no need for this "strong negative feedback" which you hypothesized. Instead, the subsequent cooling came from the orbital cycle shifting the other way... causing a cooling forcing and the same CO2 and ice albedo feedbacks then working in reverse. The negative feedback of "this cycle" is already under way... the orbital forcing has switched from warming to cooling. Nobody is 'expecting it not to engage'... it already has. If all else had remained unchanged that would result in slow cooling and another glaciation 10s of thousands of years down the line. However, human CO2 emissions have introduced a new, and much stronger, warming forcing.
  41. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Roger, It is quite possible that there will be a follow-up post regarding the specific issues you raised.
  42. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Regarding the moderator comment - "Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] We are very happy for you to discuss the science with us here at SkS, however please do so on the appropriate thread. SkS is organised this way in order to keep the discussion focussed. As we are unable to comment on the article on your blog it seems reasonable to have an article here devoted to the issue of your accusation of ad-hominems, so on this thread, please restrict your comments to that topic and that topic only. If our reporting of the science is incorrect then I strongly and sincerely encourage you to join the discussion on the relevant threads, your contribution will be greatly valued." You post a "rogues' gallery" on your website ["Christy Croks"; "Lindzen Illusions!"; "Monckton Myths"; and "Spencer Slipups" and are then surprised a number of my colleagues, as well as myself, consider this as degrogatory. I do not necessarily agree with all of their statements, but you are not going to broaden the appeal of your weblog unless you move away from this approach and just focus on the science. Such labeling of individuals is not constructive. I raised the issue on my weblog that I view the SkS labeling as ad hominems because I have published with John Christy and have directly interacted with Roy Spencer. They do not deserve such labeling. If similar rouges' gallerys were made of any other colleague who I have recently published with and/or closely worked with, I would also post on my website alerting the community who reads my blog of such a derogatory presentation. This is the last statement I will be making on this thread, since, in response to the SkS request from Dikran Marsupial, the discussion of science issues on this thread, that some of your commenters have made in response to my questions, is discouraged. I will defer from further involvement at SkS until (if SkS chooses) there is a separate post on the specific science issues I asked about earlier in this thread and on my weblog. Please alert me when you do if you are interested in a scientific discourse with me. I do appreciate, that you did not exclude any of my comments in this thread.
    Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] The discussion of the science is only discouraged on this particular thread. I (and I suspect many others here) would be very happy to discuss the scientific issues with you on the relvant threads). Your further participation here is very much encouraged.
  43. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    John Hartz#7: Are you suggesting that cosmic rays are a meaningful source of heat? On the scale of the diagram (fig 4), how big would that cube be?
  44. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    mlyle@5: I looked at a few references to see what the proportions of heat come from radioactivity compared to the three other proposed sources of heat (initial formstion, gravitational fractionation and latent heat coming from ongoing growth of the solid inner core). The precise numbers seemed to vary considerably, which is why I settled on the imprecise "Most comes from radioactivity". Wikipedia cites 45-90% coming from radioactivity but there's no reference given for the low end of the range. If you, or anyone else, could point me to a definitive reference on geoneutrinos, or a recent review paper on sources of internal heat, I would be most grateful. MarkR@6: You're correct about the reflected energy and I thought about including that that in Fig 4. The reflected energy is shown clearly in Figure 6. With all these figures there's a trade-off between getting the basic message across and rigorously including all the factors. And yes, we do plan to put Figure 4 in our figures area.
  45. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    critical mass: "The authors of this site have a lot invested in the AGW position - both as students and maybe practitioners of the science. There is a natural tendency to protect this edifice from skeptic hordes." That, Dikran, is a comment on motivation and a violation of the comments policy, but I urge you to let it remain, because it's an excellent example of how many people might misunderstand the climate science communication situation. Critical mass, you're assuming that the theory can't defend itself. That's all anyone here does with the theory: point out and explain the specific studies that form the foundation of the theory. There is no protecting. There is no attempt to conserve an ur-version of the theory. When a study emerges that requires fundamental changes to the theory, that study is given a hard critical look and then either rejected with reason, modified with reason, or accepted--and so the theory changes. While the basics of AGW haven't changed in decades, many of the fine details have. It's open to change, and nothing is rejected without consideration. I'll use religion in a different way, just to irritate DM, in order to suggest that AGW as a theory is not accepted in a universal form. Like the major religions, there are core features that are accepted, but there is great variety in the details. Thus, your perceived edifice lacks solidity, and where it is solid it doesn't really need defending (except to keep people from repeatedly running full speed into it and hurting themselves, ala the 2nd Law thread).
  46. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke, I'm also curious about your comment that John Hartz has just highlighted, i.e.: “If you want to be taken more seriously by others outside of your view on the climate issue, you should be provide more balance.” The concept of "balance" in the context of climate science seems a curious one to me! In my field (molecular biology/medical biophysics) such a concept hardly exists - the fundamental imperatives are scientific rigour and good faith in one's interpretation and dissemination of scientific data; "balance" seems more appropriate to political arguments! My experience is that good faith efforts at scientific rigour are what make this site (and others like RealClimate that focus rather stringently on the science) great value as sources for education and communication. And one can hardly accuse this site of not giving due consideration to papers and presentations that apparently cast doubt on the prevailing evidence-based views of particular elements of the science, since that seems to be a particular "house" speciality! The fact that a robust but essentially polite and on-topic discussion is actively encouraged in comments, means that any errors of fact or logic, and alternative interpretations are highlighted or given an airing. So, in your opinion, what elements are lacking which would otherwise "provide more "balance"?
  47. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    In short I agree with the comments above. 1,100 cubic km of excess latent heat will melt the 2010 min of 4,200 or this year's min of c4,000 cu km in less than 4 years. So 2015 is a totally ice free Arctic ocean August-September on current trends and is likely to be sooner. This month a team reached the magnetic north pole entirely by boat. One can expect to reach anywhere in the Arctic by boat in 2015. Reduction of the 2011 maximum ice volume 22,000 cu km by 1,100 cu km per year suggests a maximum of 20 years for a totally ice free Arctic year round on current trends. It will certainly occur much sooner than that.
    Response:

    [DB] One can also visually see the demise of the Multi-Year ice when viewed as in this graphic:

    MY Ice

    "MYI recovery observed in recent years shows a delay relative to
    thermodynamic forcing indicates that MYI is resistant to recovery"

    [Source]


  48. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Let us not forget that Watts piled onto Keith Briffa along with many others (McIntyre, Morano, etc.) while Keith was laid up in a hospital unable to defend his reputation and Watts also accused NOAA scientists of using station dropouts to intentionally manipulate data to show warming. SkS holds to the highest standards of science but when the Spencers, Christys, Lindzens, Watts, and Moncktons try to fool themselves and others about AGW, they deserve to be called out. SkS provides good science and corrects bad science. I call that balance. I suggest that Dr. Pielke be very careful about who he puts hims arms around.
  49. Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
    Where is the cosmic ray cube?
  50. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    Thanks for these very interesting graphs and comments The last graph in #24 shows 1979-2001 average max 30 to av min 14 thousand cubic km. On average therefore 16, 000 cu km of ice melts and refreezes during the 1980s and 90s. From the graph we note that 2010 max to min was c23.3-4.2 ie 19,100 cu km melted. Max in 2011 volume was 22,000 cubic km compared to the 23,300 in 2010. So maximum ice volume declined from 2010 to 2011 by about 1,100 cu km. Assuming the same amount of heat input in the two years, we have an excess latent heat to melt 1,100 cu km available to melt more ice or to warm the surface waters in 2011. Since the latent heat (heat to melt a unit quantity) of seawater is about 80 times the specific heat (heat to raise by 1 degC a unit quantity), then we can expect increasing ice melt this year and in successive years. Graphs show this accelerating trend as one would expect on average other things being equal. We would expect this from the excess latent heat from one year to the next. On this basis it is clear that once we reach zero ice volume, then heat goes into raising sea surface temperature. This will be rapid given the ratio of 80 latent to specific heat. In addition we know that global temperatures are increasing and that polar regions average SST is increasing by twice the global average, we can expect less and less ice to form during the winter season. This will result in a warming arctic ocean. Remember also that heat capacity/specific heat of water is over 4,000 times that of air. So arctic air even at forty below zero has little effect on the huge ocean heat capacity and heat loss. There may well be winter ice but seawater does not have the 4degC maximum density that freshwater lakes have at the bottom. Freshwater lakes cannot be compared to seawater lakes and seas for this reason. Maximum density of seawater is below its freezing point. Moreover the great majority of global warming is in the oceans for reasons because of the high heat capacity. This will have huge effects climate. Springs will be much warmer as less and less ice melts taking heat less heat from air during breakup and ice melt seasons. It will be fascinating to watch the UW APL graphs as we journey through these interesting times.

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