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Comments 76701 to 76750:

76701. CBDunkerson at 20:49 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       CV2 wrote: "Losing support for nuclear power because of problems with 50+ year old designs and technology really shouldn't be relevant to the new melt-down proof systems of today." What 'should or should not be' is a question for philosophers. I was talking about what is. Many human beings fear things that can kill alot of them at once... and don't get too fussy about the particulars. That said, your answer suggests its own solution... shut down the 50+ year old designs (many of which were supposed to have been retired years ago) so that they can't melt down. There will then be no melt downs for many years, public support will increase, newer designs can be built, and nuclear power can go forward. Instead, what we've got is plants that we KNOW have safety vulnerabilities continuing in operation long after they were originally supposed to be decommissioned. Accidents are inevitable. Essentially, the nuclear industry's policy of continuing to squeeze money from outdated power plants is preventing them from making vastly more money from safer new power plants. And will continue to do so unless they get lucky and there are no major accidents at old plants for a few decades OR they finally wise up and shut down the old plants.
76702. funglestrumpet at 18:52 PM on 23 August 2011
       Settled Science - Humans are Raising CO2 Levels
       21,22,23 I am not a structural engineer, but I am a mechanical engineer. This is not a thread about 9/11, I was only using it as an example of what can happen to settled science in the public arena. ( -Snip- ). I am not angry, just frustrated. I see, thanks to the hard work of contributors to this site, those on the other side of the fence playing all kinds of tricks in order to futher their cause while this side, to its credit, plays with a straight bat. Unfortunately, the public doesn't see this and so do not object when Monckton puts on his top hat and tails and put on another show of deception and illusion. In turn, the politicians pander to the whims of the general public opinion which leads them to the politically safe position of supporting business as usual. I have no idea where we go from here, but it does seem to me that this side is losing the war while winning every battle. The issue is whose flag will be flying on the remaining bit of high ground when climate change has run its course. It would be a shame if settled science continues to be ignored the way it currently is.
       Response:

       [DB] Ideological statements snipped.

76703. CV2 at 16:52 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       >>CBDunkerson at 01:34 AM on 23 August, 2011 Lloyd, polls in the United States showed for many years that majorities on both the 'left' and 'right' supported more nuclear power... unless it was going to be located near them. So, most people (more than 50%) on 'the left' WERE "advocating the building nuclear power plants (sic)". Of course, that changed with Fukushima. Support for nuclear power has dropped sharply this year...<< Losing support for nuclear power because of problems with 50+ year old designs and technology really shouldn't be relevant to the new melt-down proof systems of today. It's like abandoning cars because your Stanley Steamer's boiler blew up.
76704. Andy Skuce at 15:28 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Camburn, you are probably correct about the chances for a carbon tax in the US. But its not because the US electorate has a good understanding of economics and climate science, rather the opposite, unfortunately. For example, there are front-running presidential candidates who claim that they can suspend the laws of economics (Bachmann's $2 gas promise) and physics (Perry praying for rain).
76705. Bob Lacatena at 14:40 PM on 23 August 2011
       Climate Skeptic Fool's Gold
       17, Anthony Mills, Enlighten me. What do you know about models and their inadequacies, that I don't? Explain yourself more clearly.
76706. Camburn at 14:33 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Andy S: There will not be a carbon tax, at least in the USA in the forseable future. Most people now understand where the idea was started and a loath to have anything to do with it.
76707. Camburn at 14:31 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Stephen: And they won't. President Obamma's economic policies have been such a dismal failure that he is clinging to anything in the hopes that he will get re-elected. He would have been much more sucessful had he read all of Keynesian's theory. You can't borrow money to stimulate without long term negative effects. You can use reserve funds.......(cash on hand)...and it works well. Anyways....the economy will dictate the immediate future.
76708. Andy Skuce at 14:29 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Camburn, the question is what proportion of the tar sands remains in the ground and how much we put in the air. Yes, the demand is there for the oil but that demand will diminish if we make the price high enough, through carbon taxes or emissions caps. As mreisner said, it's a political choice. Some recently announced policies in Canada require any new coal-fired electricity generation projects to have the same GHG emissions profiles as natural gas plants. This means that new coal power stations in Canada will need carbon capture and storage. If only the same could be done for new tar sands operations: require them to have the same GHG profile as a light oil operation. That wouldn't be good enough but at least it's a step in the right direction.
76709. Anthony Mills at 14:28 PM on 23 August 2011
       Climate Skeptic Fool's Gold
       15.Sphaerica. Your comments are inappropriate. Please read my comments more carefully before responding. The first line of my comment (2) addresses the "surface energy balance",as does my comment (9). Your references are irrelevant. I suggest you google "surface energy balance"and learn something about the topic. Further,I suggest you study an appropriate textbook on heat and mass transfer to learn about the basic physics needed to describe latent heat transport from a water/air interface. 16.Scaddenp. I guess you are right--thanks.
76710. Camburn at 14:28 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." ~ Arthur Schopenhauer
76711. Stephen Leahy at 14:26 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       @dmyerson - tar sands emissions on well to wheel basis are significantly higher. According to NRDC: "Replacing 3 mbd day of conventional oil with tar sands oil would be equivalent to adding more than 22 million passenger cars to the roads." http://www.nrdc.org/land/files/TarSandsPipeline4pgr.pdf According to the State Department GHG emissions from the tar sands are at least 20% higher. However they did not look at the land use change - ie trashing the boreal forest. (Pers comm)
76712. Camburn at 14:23 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       scaddenp: The nuclear industry has been burned often, so they are reluctant to build. Disclaimer: My 1st cousin is a quality control engineer at Prairie Island in Minn. Even the old tech at Prarie Island is working well. He feels absolutely no threat to himself/or his family. He thinks it is crazy that we are not on a mission to have all of our energy produced this way. When asked, as he is also part of a project manager team, he says the regulations, the hoops, etc...required to build a plant now make it virtually impossible. The US Navy has been using nuclear for decades. Anyways, the tech is here, the will is here, but the regulations etc are also here. My point being again, the immediacy of the problem gets lost. I proposed that the state of ND try and get permits etc to build a plant next to the Missouri River. We looked into it, and after exaustive study.....decided that it was impossible to do. And the heck of it is....we WANTED to do it. WE know that lignite will last only so long. WE have all the infrastructure in place to export elect, which we do. So......instead of a nuclear plant, we got another coal plant..........go figure.
76713. Camburn at 14:12 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Stephen: It is also anticipated to send Bakken crude south as well.
76714. Stephen Leahy at 14:11 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       There is a widespread assumption promoted by industry that the Keystone Pipeline is all about tar sands oil for America. My investigations suggest that's not the case at all. It is about exports from the landlocked tar sands via the Gulf to Europe ...and maybe elsewhere. Keystone XL: A Pipeline to Europe?>
76715. Stevo at 14:10 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       Regarding reactors, thorium ones in particular,the Australian situation is that since we don't currently have the expertise or experience to build commercial reactors locally we would have to import the designers and builders and thus have a likely 20 year lead time from calling of tenders to going live. So, at least for us here,a nuclear solution is going to be too late to be of any use unless other new energy solutions start to be built in the much nearer future. Sorry Camburn, but seldom do trite, one word solutions bear scrutiny - even if they are well intentioned.
76716. John Hartz at 14:08 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       @Tom Curtis #57: You and I obviously disagree on the merits of this article and whether it should have been posted on SkS. Let's leave it at that.
76717. mullumhillbilly at 14:02 PM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       KR@90, sure I've ventured to comment elsewhere, and have even supported your scientifically-sound comments where others were attempting to argue the second law fallacy. So I'm not here with an agressive agenda, and like you I don't have time to waste in simply arguing. I'm looking for answers to some simple questions that don't seem to have been adequately addressed, the time factor is one of them. And BTW, to me, a "Warmist" is someone who believes that climate sensitivity is higher than empirical evidence suggests, who abusively "denies" all skeptical questions or alternative explanations, who thinks that the peer-review system is beyond reproach, and who adamantly asserts that mitigation not adapatation is the only answer. Not pointing that at you, I appreciate that you are polite and patient, although it seems I'm still not getting a direct answer about the time factor. You say "..the climates ability to dump heat quickly", which again is noting that time is of the essence. scaddenp@92 I think I'm repeating myself. DLR is far less important during the day than at night, in relation to the planetary energy sum that drives climate. The yearly average is obviously an integral of daily balances, and climate sensitivity to CO2 arises from the net accumulation of atmospheric heat energy over time, for two atmospheres with differing CO2. That net accumulation seems to be predominantly at night, because that's when elevated CO2 "trapping" of FIR-LWR has greater releative significance. Elevated CO2 is not so important to climate warming during the day because SWR heating is by far predominant. What's your explanation for why DLR is less during daylight hours, peaks at ~midnight, then declines until dawn ? If the accumulation of energy over time is less than thought because pre-dawn energy losses are greater than thought, then climate sensitivity is lower than thought. I don't have any references to back that up just now, but then neither have I seen any empirical analysis of diurnal energy balance with differing CO2 concs. TomC@94. You said "The atmosphere, particularly when humid, has a similar but smaller effect. That is quite distinct from the GHE". OK, I guess I was nitpicking at you in the way others were doing to me, I'm sure you understand the effects of water vapour. "...entire duration of that cooling, it would cool slower with a GHE than without it." I don't doubt that, but on a timescale of a ~12 hour night, with soil and rock being pretty good insulators, the crucial thing is the LWR from exposed surfaces, no? eg Surface temps can be sub-zero C, but just a few cm into the soil it might be 10 deg warmer. Is there any LWR coming from the subsoil? Of course not. And if the amount of escaping LWR drops markedly after midnight (as scaddennp's link in 86 shows), then higher CO2 levels won't be "trapping" much extra energy at that time. So, I'm agreeing that a planet with GHE is warmer than one without; its strawman argument to suggest otherwise. What you dont seem to be addressing is my point that a rise in GHG might not cause the marked increase in GHE if overnight energy losses are greater than thought. Where is the "missing heat" ? Regarding "...equilibrium with geothermal energy" , that's nothing like what I'm saying, and another strawman. muonC@93. I offered to take these to another thread, but didnt get a suggestion. Feel free to transfer them if you like (but leave a link please so I can find it again). Waste heat.. yes I came to the conclusion (with appreciation for TomC@71 correcting my units conversion error) that, if (I.F.F.) CO2 doubling leads to 3.7W/m2 forcing, then GHG forcing energy is equal to combustion heat every 8 months (0.66 yrs, or factor 1.5x). Even that sounded too high, which is why I raised the overnight heat loss question. I'm still in a state of disbelief that GHG forcing can be 100x the combustion energy, every year, and will look into it further when time permits and I can find somewhere to acces Flanner's full paper.
       Response:

       [DB] Try here. 

       The cost of 1 GRL article:  $25

       The power of Google:  priceless.

76718. scaddenp at 13:51 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       I note that among our regular skeptics, only Camburn (and eric (skeptic) earlier) have stepped up to challenge so far.
76719. scaddenp at 13:49 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       Camburn, are you claiming noone is building Thorium reactors because the environmental movement wont let them? The environmental movement has enough clout to block nuclear but not enough to block coal? Can you point to a proposal where the investors are lined ready but are blocked by environmental movement? (I could be wrong but I dont think this is the case - I dont think you could get investor for nuclear let alone thorium because of economic issues but I am happy to be shown wrong).
76720. Camburn at 13:45 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       The tar sands will be developed. Whether the oil is shipped to the US or a foreign market doesn't matter. The deamand is there for that oil.
76721. DSL at 13:41 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       [DB] Are you offerring to write one...? Hah! I'll just leave this alone. Because the logic of the economic Right is currently expressed in actual relations over most of the world, talking about solutions for the Left requires first addressing the context provided by the Right. That requires working through the "why" I mentioned above. I just wonder why capital would favor mitigation rather than war, migration, food and water shortages, and that wonder drug for productivity and driving down wages: desperation. Ray Anderson was anomalous. The historical development of capital is an extraordinarily nasty business, and it leaves me with too much pessimism to engage on this thread--even when I itch at the sight of straightforward silliness.
76722. muoncounter at 13:36 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       The right/private sector has a track record on large-scale engineering projects - and (after looking at two examples) it's decidedly mixed. Exhibit A: The Pickens Plan. The crux of the plan was to build a massive, $1 trillion network of wind farms stretching from Texas to North Dakota, which would replace domestic natural gas used to generate electricity. The excess natural gas would then be used to power millions of American trucks and cars, thus freeing the U.S. from the shackles of OPEC oil. Even some environmentalists swooned over the Pickens Plan, with Carl Pope, then executive director of the Sierra Club, saying, "To put it plainly, T. Boone Pickens is out to save America." Within a year, however, the wind-power scheme was all but dead, and soon Pickens - and his multimillion-dollar ad campaign - had largely faded from the airwaves. Exhibit B: Trans-Alaska Pipeline, which took a crisis to get started. On October 17, 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries announced an oil embargo against the United States in retaliation for its support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. ... The price of gasoline shot upward, gasoline shortages were common, and rationing was considered. Most Americans began demanding a solution to the problem, and President Richard Nixon began lobbying for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline as at least a part of the answer. It would be interesting to look at a number of such grand scale projects and see what the track record of the private sector really is.
76723. John Hartz at 13:33 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       @mreisner #25: Kudos on a very well written post.
76724. Camburn at 13:28 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       I have been busy and unable to reply: 1. I will again assert that there are workable solutions right now to reduce co2. And they are very cost effective. Thorium is one of them, nuclear is another. Yes, thorium is nuclear but not uranium. Co2 is an environmental concern, but it looses credibility as a concern because hard core environmentalists will not look at current tech solutions that are viable. Robert Kennedy shot wind in the foot with his resistance to the off shore towers on Martha's Vinyard. Al Gore { - gratuitous 'what Al Gore does' complaints snipped - } These are all important issues. The idea that you conserve { - more Al Gore complaints -} so therefore the message is lost. By not agreeing to known tech, the co2 message is lost, as the immedicacy of the problem becomes something not important. This for certain is not a right/left issue. It has become politicized, but in the general public it really isn't. People look at solutions, see them, see they are not being pushed for....and once again..the problem becomes 100th on the list of problems.
       Moderator Response: [mc] The problem with your argument is that the 'you' referred to (meaning us) don't conserve, largely because of denials clouding the issue. Nor has wind been 'shot in the foot;' come to Sweetwater, Texas and see wind power in action. And no, the general public does not see solutions because they are constantly being told there is no problem.
76725. mreisner at 13:23 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Given the laws of chemistry and physics, there is no plausible way that GHG emissions from the non-conventional resources, such as tar sands, can be less than that from conventional oil. Unless of course, you are going to capture and sequester the carbon from tar sands but not conventional oil resources. The entire IPCC 4th Assessment assumes most of these resources remain in the ground. Mitigating the impacts of global warming is overwhelmingly a political issue. While the science is critically important to make sure we make the best public policy decisions, it is of second order importance right now. As the science has advanced and narrowed the uncertainty we are dealing with (and will continue to do so), GHG emissions have continued to accelerate. The tar sands is an excellent organizing opportunity for several reasons. First, the decision-maker is the President-he can personally decide the fate of this pipeline. The question is whether he will "man up". Although disapproval of the pipeline cannot stop other ways of getting tar sands to available markets, it can send a powerful statement to China and the rest of the world that the United States is ready to leave (its been a long time coming). A Presidential decision denying the pipeline could start to generate some momemntum for Durban, South Africa. China has signaled its willingness to consider a price on carbon that automatically increases annually at a signficant amount, bilaterally reach a deal to set a price with China, let countries decide for themselves if they get to the price with a tax or cap and trade. Third, use the organizing effort to start to build a coalition of some non-traditional allies (farmers, ranchers, environmentalists, etc.) in traditional red regions of the nation. But more importantly, use this opportunity to reframe the debate on global warming and make it an election issue. The scientific debate is over-human use of dirty coal and oil is causing global warming. Global warming is already increasing the severity of floods, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather around the world. Thus, the U.S. will lead the world in transforming our energy and economic system to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of global warming. This generation has a moral obligation to our children and grandchildren to make the world a place where every individual has the opportunity to inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of hapiness. The U.S. will harness its innovative spirit and ethic of hard work to become the world's leader in the necessary technologies. In doing so, we will rebuild the middle class by creating family wage jobs, increase revenues to balance the budget over the coming decade, etc. We will also mobilize all of our resources, including the military to combate climate change and minimize the geopolitical instability that unaddressed global warming will cause. I know this is wishful thinking, but we are already committed to warming of at least 2 degrees C (if we eliminated all GHG emissions today). Humanity is now in a race to draw the line somewhere between 2-3 degrees (and that is assuming the earth's feedbacks cut humanity a break).
76726. DSL at 13:14 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       So do we have a "Challenge for the Left" article in the works? You can't post an article like this and then prevent people from talking about the reasons why solutions might be a challenge for capitalism.
       Response:

       [DB] Are you offerring to write one...?

76727. bibasir at 12:54 PM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       It is the democratic party, not the democrat party. Obama is a democratic president. See Wikipedia. ""Democrat Party" is a political epithet used in the United States instead of "Democratic Party" when talking about the Democratic Party.[1] The term has been used in negative or hostile fashion by conservative commentators and members of the Republican Party in party platforms, partisan speeches and press releases "
76728. muoncounter at 12:49 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       DB#23: "A reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought." So if red (-4) is 'extreme', purple (-6- -8) must be 'biblical' and the light violet 'kiss your a$$ goodbye'?
76729. Daniel Bailey at 12:44 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       @ Rob & muoncounter Just a coming attraction for the really big shoe: Current Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI] 2060-2069. A reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought. Regions that are blue or green will likely be at lower risk of drought, while those in the red and purple spectrum could face more unusually extreme drought conditions. (Courtesy University Corporation for Atmospheric Research [UCAR]) [Source]
76730. Tom Curtis at 12:32 PM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       mullumhillbilly @91 I never said anything like the claim that water vapour is not part of the greenhouse effect, and I resent your attempt to put words in my mouth. The specific heat capacity of gaseous H2O is approximately twice that of dry air. That means that if you increase the humidity, you increase the energy required to raise the temperature of air; and increase the energy in the air that needs to dissipate when cooling. That is an additional effect to the greenhouse effect of the water vapour. Let me add that your whole angle of attack here, in addition to being dreadfully uninformed, is entirely wrong headed. The rate at which the GHE warms the planet is a function of the energy difference between the planets current OLR and that required for equilibrium. If the planet is cooler, that difference is greater and the planet warms faster. Given that, and assume contrary to fact that the energy accumulated during the day was entirely dissipated at night. In that case, during the day time a planet with GHE will warm much faster than a planet without GHE. Hence, even if you could prove your core assumption, your conclusions would not follow. As it happens, your main assumption is grossly in error as I showed in 77. Your hand waving response was simply irrelevant. Given the absence of renewed insolation, the surface of the Earth would cool to less than -208 degrees K over time, but during the entire duration of that cooling, it would cool slower with a GHE than without it. You assume my argument is irrelevant because at some time (generally after 12 hours) another source of heat arrives, reversing the slowing. That reversal is, of course, the onset of daylight. It follows that if the planet with a GHE cools slower than one without until the onset of daylight, or more typically, a breeze carrying heat from nearby day lit areas, then more of the heat of the preceding day is retained each day with a GHE, contrary to your supposition. What is more, having retained more heat from the preceding day, with the GHE the the surface will also warm faster during the day so that, by the end of the day, it will have more heat to retain over night. For an argument like yours to have any merit, the surface of the Earth would need to cool to the point where it is in equilibrium with geothermal energy each night, which obviously does not happen. For anybody guided by evidence, that means it has no more credibility than geocentrism (it is that obviously wrong).
76731. muoncounter at 12:24 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       RobP#20: "much of the southern US is in the grips of a prolonged drought....." Look at the global drought monitor here. Canada has drought problems of its own. Welcome to the new normal (or will the next new normal make this one look like a day in the park?)
76732. muoncounter at 12:15 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       Dan M#17: "many land owners in places like texas ... were very much opposed to the idea of the pipeline because of the fear of a spill." There are significant spill concerns up and down this pipeline, not just in Texas. See this post in grist; the author has a legal point of view on environmental issues in the US midwest.
76733. apiratelooksat50 at 12:13 PM on 23 August 2011
       SkS Weekly Digest #12
       DB - good point!
76734. Rob Painting at 12:13 PM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       CBDunkerson - "If he approves it without getting any offsetting benefit in return then that's a loss (and rather disappointing)... but doesn't seem catastrophic" It's bizarre watching this all slowly unfold, it will all end in tears, the observations and projections make that much a certainty. But at a time when much of the southern US is in the grips of a prolonged drought..... ......and with much worse US drought yet to unfold as the global climate warms, American politicians want to make things even worse? Utter madness.
76735. muoncounter at 12:10 PM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       mullumhillbilly#91: "most (if not all) of the demonstrated warming has been at night in higher latitudes" It's high time you started doing as most others here do: Substantiate your statements. By no means is all of the observed warming at night, nor is it all in the higher latitudes. You might want to look up 'arctic amplification' and 'diurnal temperature range' for some conceptual support. "suggested how higher night temps can occur without net gain of energy in a 24 hour cycle. " Your 'suggestions' don't carry much weight by themselves. Has anyone doing research in the climate sciences made a similar suggestion? If so, don't you owe that researcher the credit? Although KR kindly provided the sound basis for the greenhouse effect, that is not the topic on this thread. This thread is about waste heat. Thus far, you've shown nothing (other than your initial calculation errors) to counter the position of the original post: Waste heat is insignificant compared to greenhouse radiative forcing. If you have any evidence to the contrary, please feel free to share. If you have no evidence, continued speculation is not particularly interesting.
76736. dmyerson at 11:57 AM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       What about the producer's claim, mentioned in the NYT editorial, and which I've seen on TV commercials, that production of tar sands will not have any more emissions than conventional oil. Is it a complete myth or unrealized potential? Maybe that could be a followup post.
76737. scaddenp at 11:53 AM on 23 August 2011
       Climate's changed before
       " I red once that in the past, the CO2 seemed to be a consequence of Earth superficial temperature increase and that CO2 increase generally occurs after temperature increase." Natural CO2 increase occurs that way, which has the effect of amplifying warming. For more detail see CO2 lags temperature
76738. hfranzen at 11:51 AM on 23 August 2011
       One Confusedi Bastardi
       I may be too late getting in on this, but I feel compelled to make onr comment (although I could make many!). As a physical chemist I have an understanding of LeChatelier's principal. It deals with will defined systems whose states are fixed by c+2 variables. The earth in no way comes close to being the type of systtm to which the principlal can be applied. For the chap in the video to bring the principla into the discussion in the way he does demonstrates that he has no idea whatsoever about the principal and has no hesitation about expounding about science about which his understanding is worse that abysmally poor. I agree that Fox News bears a large burden of reponsibility for this fiasco, but I must also raise a serious objection about someone who supposedly has some scientific credentials so far overstepping the bounds of reponsible scientific reporting
76739. scaddenp at 11:47 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       I am pointing out DLR is operating significantly in day time. Your timing argument makes no sense to me. At climate scale, you are looking at annual averages. You think models are based on calculations for a particular time of the day?
76740. Andy Skuce at 11:44 AM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       RB@15: I was pointing out what the producers' economic motives are. This absolutely does not provide a justification for building this pipeline in my opinion, since none of the externalities, GHG's or the devastation to the Athabaska area, are even considered as costs. Dan, I agree that stopping this project will not do much in the short term to slow down development of the tar sands. But, if KXL is stopped, over the coming decades, development growth will be constrained eventually by lack of transportation capacity. As a BC coastal resident myself, I don't want more tankers sailing through our waters either. Stopping Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan will be the next battle.
76741. manouchk at 11:27 AM on 23 August 2011
       Climate's changed before
       I was wondering what is the consequence of what and if their is a proof for that... I'm not expert and it looks like a big assumption of all(or most?) sutdies is that the increase of Earth superficial temperatura is a consequence of the increase of CO2. I red once that in the past, the CO2 seemed to be a consequence of Earth superficial temperature increase and that CO2 increase generally occurs after temperature increase. That would be great also if some selected bibliography could be suggested at the end of article. I'd like too know about a good book about past climate, glaciation and atmospheric composition... Even, if I a bit skeptical, the precaution principle makes me still keep on using my bicycle as much as possible to commute...
       Response:

       [DB] If a book is what you ask for a book is what ye will receive:

       Spencer Weart's: The Discovery of Global Warming

       Highly recommended.
       

76742. KR at 11:19 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       mullumhillbilly - A quick search on your moniker indicates that you have been posting on climate topics for a while, complete with heavy use of the term "warmist". I'm not interested in recapitulating the entire greenhouse gas theory to someone who should know it by this point. I would suggest reading through the Science of Doom greenhouse effect pages, then returning if you still have any questions. GHG's warm the climate both night and day, reducing the diurnal temperature variations by reducing the climates ability to dump heat quickly. At the moment you are giving me a very strong impression of being disingenuous, of arguing for the sake of arguing, and of raising silly objections. Just not worth my while...
76743. mullumhillbilly at 11:16 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       tomCurtis@87. So you are saying humidity and water vapour are NOT part of the GHE? I agree re buffering capacity of oceans, thence maritime climate cf inland deserts, and I was simply using the Moon example to illustrate the overwhelming warming effect of direct insolation vs GHGs. You say "GHGs cause more warming during the day than during the night". Presumably you mean the net effect is significant. (net being gross "trapping" minus emission back to space). Is the surface temperature record reliable enough to show this? As I understand it, most (if not all) of the demonstrated warming has been at night in higher latitudes. I don't think we have the information to say whether that night warming (eg is it based on higher minimum temps, or an integral of degree-hours?) actually reperesents retention of energy in the system. I've already suggested how higher night temps can occur without net gain of energy in a 24 hour cycle. I'm not even disputing that there may be some residual energy accumulating, but the actual amount is crucial to climate sensitivity.
76744. mullumhillbilly at 11:02 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       scaddenp@86 ?? DLR is highest at night in your diagrams, except for a couple of early afternoon peaks when presumably some clouds passed over. Thermometer in the shade. If it truly was totally insulated from any external energy, of course it would drop to zero, whether on the Moon or on Venus. What's your point?
76745. Dan Moutal at 10:54 AM on 23 August 2011
       Tar Sands Impact on Climate Change
       To be clear I am not in favour of the pipeline, I just think that stopping it will (unfortunately) do little to slow down the growth of the tar sands. There is just too much money to be made there (again unfortunately). And maybe the fact that I would prefer the oil go somewhere other than British Columbia (where I live) is biasing me a little:) One interesting aspect of the pipeline that I read somewhere is that many land owners in places like texas, which tend to be republicans, were very much opposed to the idea of the pipeline because of the fear of a spill. This could be one of the few areas where there could be a genuine bipartisan grass-roots support to stop the pipeline.
76746. mullumhillbilly at 10:54 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       KR84, Yes GHGs_101 is quite comprehensible thank you, but this really doesn't address the question of time. So less FIR (LWR) escapes to begin with at night, but the surface cools rapidly as the night goes on (frost) and the IR drops well before dawn. Diurnal variation of IR is not a new idea. I'm saying time is important, and you glossed over that. Climate sensitivity is very much dependent on how much of the trapped/delayed IR-sourced energy makes its way to TOA by dawn (incl by convection), and thence is lost to space.
76747. Tom Curtis at 10:26 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       mullumhillbilly @85, it is true that the diurnal (day/night) difference between warming due to insolation is far greater than the diurnal difference in warming due to GHG. But the GHG cause more warming during the day than during the night. The primary reason the earth has such a small diurnal range compared the the moon is the presence of a liquid ocean which requires the storage or release of very large amounts of energy to heat or cool, thus keeping temperatures relatively constant. The atmosphere, particularly when humid, has a similar but smaller effect. That is quite distinct from the GHE.
76748. scaddenp at 10:18 AM on 23 August 2011
       It's waste heat
       Consider putting a thermometer in a vacuum in the shade on a sunny day. Do you expect the reading to plummet to sub-zero? Consider doing the same experiment on the moon. Look at the actual measurement of DLR (eg here) and note that DLR strongest in day as you would expect. Your daytime warmth is from both the sun directly and DLR.
76749. scaddenp at 10:13 AM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       JD - exactly. So to stop FF use, something about that environment must change. The challenge is what.
76750. Tom Curtis at 10:09 AM on 23 August 2011
       GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
       John Donovan @50, it is a reasonable presumption that economic pressures alone will not drive the replacement of all fossil fuel usage by 2050 in the US (or the world) renewables and nuclear power. Given that, saying that the solution is renewables and nuclear does not face the specific problem posed - how, under libertarian principles, can we drive the replacement of fossil fuel use by nuclear and renewable power and a transport fleet powered by electricity or biofuels at significantly faster rates than that transition would be made based on commercial decisions alone?

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