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Comments 77151 to 77200:
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dhogaza at 05:41 AM on 17 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Well, it's OT but I can't resist ...unless I see rain on the radar
You don't see rain on the radar, you see rain on a false-color image generated by a model that interprets data returned by doppler radar ... -
Mythago at 04:27 AM on 17 August 2011Greenhouse Gas: It's not just about CO2
Second comment of the day. I have now revised several points to clarify and correct as has been advised to me by my friends. Hope it reads better than it did. Kev C -
Paul D at 03:52 AM on 17 August 2011Joseph E. Postma and the Greenhouse Effect
I'm not sure I agree with you Marco. But that is another topic. -
rustneversleeps at 03:48 AM on 17 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Crickets. -
DSL at 03:47 AM on 17 August 2011Climate's changed before
Good grief, DB, where did you get the second graph? I don't recall having seen it. That is almost painful.Response:[DB] I collect 'em, like Imelda Marcos does shoes...
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Chris Colose at 03:31 AM on 17 August 2011Joseph E. Postma and the Greenhouse Effect Part 2
I am open to that possibility...but Joe Postma is now posting comments on Judith Curry´s blog, and the quality of the comments are slowly making me a skeptic, or perhaps even a ¨denier¨ of that possibility. -
Marco at 03:29 AM on 17 August 2011Joseph E. Postma and the Greenhouse Effect Part 2
Chris, I am going to disagree with your next to last sentence. Yes, it is wrong, but I am not sure it was intended to confuse casual readers. Let's accept the possibility that Joseph E. Postma simply does not have the intellectual ability to really understand what he is doing. The stupid, it sometimes hurts, but it really exists (I could show you a paper in which essentially nothing is right, most of which the author did not understand when I pointed it out (it actually got published in an otherwise reasonable journal (IF 2.8)). We'll have to live with people who seriously and honestly believe they are right, regardless of everything and everyone pointing out their errors. Their intentions may not be nefarious, they are just spectacularly wrong. -
CBDunkerson at 03:18 AM on 17 August 2011Climate's changed before
Fitz, there is an IPCC graph which shows different records overlapping. However, demonstrating that they align wasn't its intended purpose so the resolution is low and the records aren't all identified. The red is atmospheric, the green looks like it is probably Law Dome, and the purple must be Vostok. In any case, see the How reliable are CO2 measurements? page for more info.Response:[DB] There is this one; I'll look for others:
This one, showing the departure from the natural range of CO2, is a jaw-dropper:
To paraphrase the Bard: The Rate's the Thing...
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Marco at 03:04 AM on 17 August 2011Joseph E. Postma and the Greenhouse Effect
This reminds me of how the electronic structure of atoms is taught: start with the Bohr model. Simple, elegant...but in essence wrong. It's just a better starting point than quantum mechanics and having to discuss orbitals, probabilities, and all that from the start. -
Mythago at 03:03 AM on 17 August 2011Greenhouse Gas: It's not just about CO2
The above posting is still being reviewed by a couple of my friends. They have picked me up on one or two punctuation errors, a couple of bad syntax errors and a few modifications that could make it more informative without much alteration. Aside from that I am still working on a follow up article with some further ideas as well as trying to present a more informative viewpoint to the everyday population who simply don't have time to read masses of technical and scientific data. So over the next couple of days I intend to edit the article to correct the oversights. Anyone who has seen a glaring mistake or thinks I could improve a point or two then please feel free to comment. Regards Kev C -
pbjamm at 02:45 AM on 17 August 2011Joseph E. Postma and the Greenhouse Effect
'Of course, this is never done in climate modeling or in more detailed analyses appropriate for scholarly literature, so it is more an exercise in complaining about undergraduate education than an attempt to correct what he calls a “paradigm” in climatology.' This made me laugh out loud. A great summary of the hard work of knocking down straw men. -
dana1981 at 01:40 AM on 17 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
"The short term forcasts for my area have been so miserably wrong that unless I see rain on the radar, I discount it."
Bastardi is probably Camburn's weatherman :-) The accuracy of models is off-topic here. As DSL suggests, if you want to argue about that, please take it to the "models aren't reliable" page. -
Dikran Marsupial at 01:12 AM on 17 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale you have missed an important point. It isn't just that the natural sinks remove ~50% of human emissions. U_n > E_n means that the natural uptake removes ALL of the natural emissions as well as ~50% of human emissions. The remaining ~50% of anthropogenic emissions is what has been causing atmospheric concentrations to rise. Back to the step by step: You agree that for the last fifty years natural uptake has exceeded natural emissions (U_n > E_n). Do you agree that this means that the natural carbon cycle has consistently opposed the rise in atmospheric CO2 as in each of the last fifty years it has taken more CO2 out of the atmosphere than it has put in? -
Fitz1309 at 01:10 AM on 17 August 2011Climate's changed before
I've recently come across a number of arguments suggesting that the ice core CO2 measurements are inaccurate as they can be contaminated or only show CO2 concentrations in one location etc. Is there any charts that show the data of the various ice core datasets laid over each other to demonstrate that they are in agreement with each other as you wouldn't expect the same problems to occur at exactly the same time periods at different locations around the world. Cheers -
DSL at 00:37 AM on 17 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
So you produce a model based on observation. The model outcome predicts that whatever the meteorologist says, the result will be the opposite. You act on this model by discounting the forecast completely. You then apply another model. You check the radar and use your proprietary software to predict the chance of rain. You then act on the model by carrying or not carrying your umbrella. I wonder how often your models are correct. 100%? 90%? Why don't you peruse the "Models aren't reliable" page to see how accurate temp modeling can be? This is entirely on-topic, since Bastardi uses models to predict short-term weather but denies that models will work for long-term climate. -
Pete Dunkelberg at 00:22 AM on 17 August 2011What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
BP's comment seems on topic to me. His question is "How much of the climate difference between the Pliocene and today is due to the closure of the former Panama seaway?" Step one in answering the question: find out how global ocean circulation changed. BP found a good 1998 paper on that. Next step: integrate this with modern climate models. Closure of the Panama Seaway during the Pliocene: implications for climate and Northern Hemisphere glaciation from ten years later is a good start.Abstract/Summary The "Panama Hypothesis" states that the gradual closure of the Panama Seaway, between 13 million years ago (13 Ma) and 2.6 Ma, led to decreased mixing of Atlantic and Pacific water Masses, the formation of North Atlantic Deep water and strengthening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, increased temperatures and evaporation in the North Atlantic, increased precipitation in Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, culminating in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) during the Pliocene, 3.2-2.7 Ma. Here we test this hypothesis using a fully coupled, fully dynamic ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) with boundary conditions specific to the Pliocene, and a high resolution dynamic ice sheet model. We carry out two GCM simulations with "closed" and "open" Panama Seaways, and use the simulated climatologies to force the ice sheet model. We find that the models support the "Panama Hypothesis" in as much as the closure of the seaway results in a more intense Atlantic thermohaline circulation, enhanced precipitation over Greenland and North America, and ultimately larger ice sheets. However, the volume difference between the ice sheets in the "closed" and "open" configurations is small, equivalent to about 5 cm of sea level. We conclude that although the closure of the Panama Seaway may have slightly enhanced or advanced the onset of NHG, it was not a major forcing mechanism. Future work must fully couple the ice sheet model and GCM, and investigate the role of orbital and CO2 effects in controlling NHG.
The next step is to look at papers that cite this one, using google scholar. -
CBDunkerson at 00:22 AM on 17 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Camburn, while it is true that there are details of climate change impacts which cannot be proven, that does not change the fact that the overall framework and rough range of climate impacts presented by the IPCC and various other scientific organizations would ALL be admissable in court... while NONE of the rants and delusions of internet 'skeptics' would be. In the United States the determinant is the 'Daubert standard', which requires (among other things) that any scientific testimony be limited to matters which have undergone peer review and are widely accepted by the relevant scientific community. Only a handful of 'skeptic' claims meet the peer review requirement, and literally NONE of them meet the 'widely accepted' requirement. However, the fact that 'skeptic' 'science' would be inadmissable in court isn't really what I was getting at. Rather, I was going for the much simpler concept of 'testimony under oath'... which would preclude, or introduce penalties for, the many blatantly false things which 'skeptics' like Bastardi and Salby have been saying. To take your example... a climate scientist saying what they think will happen based on a model would never be perjury. It might even be admissable as scientific evidence (that is, to be considered scientifically established as opposed to just the individual's view) if it was solidly grounded. On the other hand, Bastardi explaining that 'the greenhouse effect violates the first law of thermodynamics' is provably false. There is no way he could get away with that in court. -
John Chapman at 00:15 AM on 17 August 2011Soil Carbon in the Australian Political Debate (Part 1 of 2)
How nice to read a description of what soil carbon refers to. Having read the oppositions document titled 'Direct Action' there was no description of what the method entailed. There was no suggestion as to how farmers or whoever would be paid for the capture of carbon, presumably other than by some form of extra tax - perhaps a carbon tax? -
Camburn at 00:14 AM on 17 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
DSL: Kinda off topic, but I will respond. NO, I do not take my umbrella with me. The short term forcasts for my area have been so miserably wrong that unless I see rain on the radar, I discount it. Forcast......no rain...it rains. Forcast........rain..it doesn't rain.Moderator Response: [Albatross] Yes it is off topic, additionally, your subjective, unsubstantiated assertions concerning the accuracy of weather forecasts for the Dakotas is very likely incorrect. Please limit your posts to discussing which of Basatrdi's assertions you either agree or disagree with. -
DSL at 23:57 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Indeed, Camburn--that court theory you have is awful. Most of what happens in a court is based on probability and psychology (and often a kind of pseudo-psychology). Good grief, the doubt game again Camburn? Let's say Bastardi gives you a 70% chance for rain tomorrow. Do you take your umbrella with you? -
Camburn at 23:51 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
DB: What I wrote is true. You are smart enough to know this.Response:[DB] Camburn, whether I am smart or not is debatable. The individual components of climate science you lump-sum question are better discussed on the individual threads (many exist) which address them.
This thread is about Bastardi's "challenges" in accepting and presenting the science of climate change to the masses.
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Camburn at 23:19 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Throught history climate has varied considerably. We do not really know all the causes of this. Some may think they know, but in reality, it is unknown. TSI reconstructions have huge variations depending on the author. I see charts on here that are totally different than other charts written by scientists that are very qualified and think their chart is the correct one. I don't remember the author of the series on ocean PH, but it was an excellent series. Well presented. This is a valid concern that really can not be disputed. That would stand up in court. The other items of AGW would not.Response:[DB] "Throught history climate has varied considerably. We do not really know all the causes of this. Some may think they know, but in reality, it is unknown."
You offer unsupported opinion and conjecture only in your spreading of memes. You may deny what the literature and the state of the science state, but that doesn't change the fact that you do it without scientific basis.
Thus the denial.
Ultimately, this is going far off-topic. If you wish to "debate" minutiae, please do it on relevant threads, not this one.
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dhogaza at 23:18 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Camburn: "A model can't be used in court to project as that is something that may happen in the future, the different outcomes of the different models shows that it is a crap shoot. You can't prosecute someone for disagreeing what "may" happen in the future." People have been successfully prosecuted for negligently transmitting HIV based on the fact that the recipient *may* fall victim to AIDS in the future. Despite different models showing different risks of infection as a consequence of unprotected intercourse because we can't pin the risk down precisely, etc etc. I do hope your knowledge of science is better than your knowledge of law ... -
Camburn at 23:13 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
DB: Not a goalpost shift at all. Most of warnings of AGW are based on model outcomes. Most of the warnings are temperature related, which are based on model outcomes. The temp response is based on sensativity, which is still all over the place and I do not feel anyone really knows which number is the "correct" number. I think the crux of the whole of AGW should be based on PH of the oceans, the effects of lowering ph. This is documented, the cause well understood and incontrovertable.Response:[DB] Yes indeed it was a goalpost shift, for the reasons I stated. Deniers and denialists to this day, like Bastardi, deny measurable metrics of climate change. That is the point CBD was making. Broadening it is a goalpost shift.
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Dale at 23:12 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
For the sake of the lesson I will retain questions till the end. But yes, we'd already concluded above that natural sinks remove on average ~50% of human emissions (as shown in the above graph). -
Camburn at 22:38 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
CBDunkerson: I agree, it should go to court. A model can't be used in court to project as that is something that may happen in the future, the different outcomes of the different models shows that it is a crap shoot. You can't prosecute someone for disagreeing what "may" happen in the future.Response:[DB] Nice goalpost shift, dragging models into the picture. CBD was referring to actual measurable and verifiable metrics, as you well know. Forcing reality to contort itself to the skeptics paradigm would entail violating nature and spacetime itself.
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Dikran Marsupial at 22:15 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale Great, so we agree that if E_a > dC then we know that U_n > E_n. Lets look at the data. In the plot below, the blue line shows annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel use and land use changes; the red line shows the annual change in atmospheric CO2 calculated from the obsevations made at Mauna Loa. All three datasets are available from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre. The green line shows the inferred difference between natural emissions (E_n) and natural uptake (U_n). Note the plot is labelled a little differently such that dC = C', F_a = E_a, F_i = E_n and F_e = U_n.
Do you agree that E_a > dC for every year of the last fifty years (at least until 2006), and hence we know that for the last fifty years U_n > E_n?
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Dale at 21:56 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
And equally valid, if E_a < dC then the right is also +, as well as if E_a == dC then the right is also 0. -
CBDunkerson at 21:01 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
The problem with the 'wind' explanation is that the average concentration of the ice pack is currently at an all time low of about 57%. Meaning that the wind forces which sometimes (e.g. 2007) act to create a low extent by causing the ice to 'bunch up' in a smaller area are less in evidence now than at any prior point in the satellite record. Basically, we've got a near record low extent even though the ice is more spread out than it has ever been before... because there is so much LESS ice. However, that won't stop the 'skeptics'. A few years ago the predominate argument they made was that the ice was NOT retreating. Indeed, it was 'recovering'. As that has become more and more obviously ridiculous I've seen an increasing tendency to go with, 'Oh, this is nothing special. We expected this all along. Just a natural cycle. Cycle of what? Well... nature. Duh!' Which is why the 'debate' idea for dealing with them doesn't usually work so well. They just go in and say nonsensical things and stick to them in the face of all evidence to the contrary. Yes, people thinking logically can then see how ridiculous their arguments are... but as we have seen in 'discussions' with 'skeptics' here, there are plenty of people who will respond to complete nonsense with approval of its unquestionable accuracy. Any venue where 'skeptics' are able to make things up with impunity will fail to win over the dedicated disbelievers. All they need is some shred of an argument for why what they want to believe must be right and they will hold to that even in the face of incontrovertible proof to the contrary. We've all seen it. That is why I keep saying these issues need to go to court. Put them in an environment where they are required to tell the truth and 'skeptics' have NOTHING to support their claims. -
Dikran Marsupial at 21:00 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale Glad we agree so far. So following from dC - E_a = E_n - U_n we can work out the difference between E_n and U_n without knowing anything about the values of E_n and U_n, provided we know dC and E_a. Specifically, if we know that the left hand side is negative (i.e. E_a > dC) then the right hand side must also be negative (i.e. U_n > E_n). Do you agree with this? p.s. sorry got subscripts wrong, should be fixed now. -
Dale at 20:52 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Yes I agree, it's a simple algebraic statement that the annual change less what we throw up there, is representative of the natural cycle. -
dorlomin at 20:45 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Id be curious as to how the great professor Bastardi thinks that clouds keep the surface warmer at night without violating the first law of thermodynamics. -
dorlomin at 20:42 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
"Ice in the arctic could come close to an extent as low as 2007, with record low volume. What will Bastardi and others say then? A 'Natural variation'? " Wind, they say the wind is melting the ice. -
newcrusader at 20:26 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
When will the Public in the USA, as well as in AU- and elsewhere begin to ignore Fox and the likes of Bastardi? From my perspective- what do we need to see with dangerous violent weather to convince these deniers? Ice in the arctic could come close to an extent as low as 2007, with record low volume. What will Bastardi and others say then? A 'Natural variation'? -
alan_marshall at 19:32 PM on 16 August 2011Soil Carbon in the Australian Political Debate (Part 1 of 2)
Matt Holden @8 Along with Malcolm Turnbull, Greg Hunt is one of the few members of the Opposition to accept climate science. I praise them both for defending it. As climate action spokesman, Hunt’s task is not easy. After Tony Abbot overturned the Opposition’s previous bipartisan support for an emissions trading scheme, he had the unenviable job of stitching together a politically plausible alternative with inadequate funding. Hence the emphasis on soil carbon offsets, which Hunt believes he can acquire cheaply. I believe he has seriously underestimated the cost of the permanent sequestration of CO2 in agricultural soils, something I will explain in detail in Part 2. In the meantime, you might be interested that in his written response to me, Hunt stated: I would also note that soil carbon has traded at $1 per tonne in the United States. If Hunt thinks this figure means anything, he is sadly out of touch. He is quoting the US voluntary market, which has no fixed rules, and therefore nothing on which to fix a value. The Republicans, ideological allies of our Opposition, blocked Obama’s attempt to put a price on carbon. As a consequence, the voluntary market collapsed. The credits sold at $1 per tonne were dumped on the market at a fraction of their cost of production. -
Dikran Marsupial at 19:19 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale Thanks for engaging with the exercise, much appreciated. So we can re-express the conservation of mass by writing dC = E_a + E_n - U_n where dC is the annual increase in atmospheric CO2, E_a is annual emissions from anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel use and land use changes), E_n is total annual emissions from all natural sources and U_n is total annual uptake of CO2 by all natural sinks. This should be uncontraversial as it is merely a restatement of the first step in algebraic terms. Next, subtracting E_a from both sides, we have dC - E_a = E_n - U_n Do you agree that this is correct? -
Sceptical Wombat at 15:28 PM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Debates are not a particularly good way of discussing science. If one debater feels free to invent facts as he goes along and the other feels constrained to stick to what she knows to be true then the former will almost certainly win the debate. However if anyone does feel inclined to debate any of the "skeptics" I suggest they read http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/maslin-v-morano-the-full-analysis/ first. -
skywatcher at 15:04 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale, everything you say is 'hypothetically speaking', 'speculating', 'maybe' or 'could', and none of it is backed up with evidence. Hypothetically speaking, some hitherto unknown natural cycle could drive rapid warming since the Industrial Revolution. Hypothetically speaking, faries could live at the bottom of my garden, too. Until you, or Salby, or anyone else can provide evidence for these magic natural cycles driving the rapid 20th Century warming, they remain merely fairies at the bottom of the garden. Scientifically, nothing you or Salby has said troubles climate science in the slightest, which can already explain very well the recent warming and its attendant variations. -
muoncounter at 13:29 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale#58: "until the evidence which led him to the claim is released" No need to wait. The evidence is already out there and is publicly available. Shown below is 1965-2010 emissions (red is 2000).source Not constant; not even that close to 'consistently linear,' whatever that means. Ups and downs due to economic activity. The graph linked earlier showed atmospheric CO2 increases are smaller after the years of lower CO2 emissions (no surprise there). But it does strongly suggest that there aren't any 'hypothetical natural events' taking up the slack. The big natural events -- Pinatubo, for example -- are well-known and well-studied. "I'm just speculating off the top of my head" Well, that's a start. But if you are just speculating, how can you be so confident about natural variation? I always thought speculation was akin to guessing. Not a very skeptical thing to do.
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Dale at 12:33 PM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
muoncounter, A consistent rise with little deviation is a constant rise. As I said, it's Salby's claim, not mine. And until the evidence which led him to the claim is released, there's nothing further I can say about it. I never said that temperature causes increased CO2, Salby does in his podcast. But hypothetically speaking, if temperature increases and a number of natural events occur, they could increase CO2. So indirectly temperature could increase CO2. Take for example the Russian permafrost. As it thaws, GHG's are released. Or more plant growth in the northern and southern extremes where carbon sinks aren't as efficient, more CO2 would be released (rot etc). There's also a new study out a couple weeks ago that claims higher temps stunt tree growth, thus reducing their efficiency as carbon sinks. In a lot of these cases there is lag between the temp increase and the CO2 increase (rotting and new growth doesn't occur straight away for instance). But without researching it deeply I couldn't say definitely if their could be a link. I'm just speculating off the top of my head. As for where emissions go, into sinks of course. The atmosphere isn't the only place emissions go. -
Bern at 11:16 AM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Tom Curtis: I rather suspect that's why DSL suggested a series of debates, each on a specific topic. That way, if they try to start a Gish gallop, the moderator should pull them up, and get them back onto the topic at hand. If they're made to talk about CO2 for even 15 minutes, without being able to throw in "but what about [sunspots|PDO|cooling|whatever]" when they get asked an uncomfortable question, then it should be evident very quickly that they really don't know what they're talking about, and don't actually have anything to rebut the science. Of course, they would almost certainly refuse any debate that puts such limitations on them. -
muoncounter at 11:15 AM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale#56: "confusing the Green ... and the red" No, you appear to be confused. First it was "human emissions are constant" and the varying delta CO2 was some sign of '30 GT of natural variance'. Now its "pretty consistent to the linear trend," which is not a constant. If Salby contends that "natural variance absorbs between none or all human emissions," he's right just as often as a stopped clock; the average airborne fraction is about 50%. From data I've seen, its never as low as 'none' and never as high as 'all.' So '30 GT natural variance' does not compute.
Looks like a low on average of ~40% and a high on average of ~70%. Natural variance (crudely speaking) +/-15%.
But you've missed the more important graph: in the current world, atmospheric CO2 increases whether temperature anomalies go up or down. How can this possibly mean increasing temperature causes increased CO2?
Oh, then there's that mass problem. Where'd the cumulative mass of our emissions go, if not into the atmosphere?
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nigelj at 11:07 AM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
The main sceptics have declared total war on you people, they are subjecting you to the biggest campaign of disinformation propoganda in the history of science. Get organised and get in the media, make a big huge noise,keep it clear and simple, dont compromise your integrity. -
Tom Curtis at 09:30 AM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
DSL @ 11, challenge them to a written debate or else you are inviting a victory for them by Gish gallop. -
muoncounter at 09:30 AM on 16 August 2011One Confusedi Bastardi
Camburn#13: "no statistical verification of increased events of extreme weather." Comment on Linking extreme weather with a statistically significant hint. -
muoncounter at 09:30 AM on 16 August 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Continuing from here. Camburn: "no statistical verification of increased events of extreme weather." No? See Deo et al 2007, reporting a statistically significant increase in Australian heat waves: Of the 61 sites over the observation period, only one station showed statistically significant decrease in heat wave incidence since 1950. The increases in heat incidences were confined in eastern and South Australia with the magnitudes of increases varying across the continent. Large increases of about 0.415ºC yr-1 have occurred at Snowtown (SA) and 0.394ºC yr-1 at Dubbo (NSW), while most of the remaining stations in eastern Australia showed smaller increases which were statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. A hint here, a hint there; pretty soon you're talking about a trend. Do they get much snow in Snowtown these days? -
Dale at 09:26 AM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Muoncounter, In the first graph blue (emissions) looks pretty consistent to the linear trend. You're not confusing the Green (what goes to sinks) and the red (what stays)? Salby contends that natural variance absorbs between none or all human emissions, the difference between rear to year ppmv increase based on isotopes, so since we currently emit about 30GT that's the natural variance. That's his claim. -
dr2chase at 08:31 AM on 16 August 2011Where have all the people gone?
On the subject of Florida, there are some interesting vulnerabilities to sea level rise. A fair number of people live on barrier islands on the west coast. As it stands now, those islands are marginal for evacuation when a hurricane is predicted to hit (do note, evacuation by car; given 24 hour warning, you have the option of swimming to the mainland). The bridges and causeways all have low spots; raising sea level even half a meter gives the storm surge a head start on cutting the islands off for evacuation. Elevation of wells is no big deal; it's easy enough to thread another meter of pipe onto the wellhead and lift the pump. The water table underneath is what matters, and again, some areas on marginal on water supplies, to the point that Tampa was talking about running sewage through a desalinization plant (it's cheaper than purifying seawater; the energy cost is non-trivial). It doesn't hurt to keep a little history in mind (my GGF moved to Florida in the 20s, my wife is 3rd generation native, we learned some history in school, and I read more later). A truckload of people moved to Florida in the last century. A truckload could also leave. The decline of civilization in Florida would look not so much like the Road Warrior, and it's not quite tropical, but in the absence of mosquito control and alligator control, and with the added bonus of uncontrolled invasive species (pythons, fire ants, nile monitor lizards), and several species of poisonous snake (eastern diamondback rattler, cottonmouth, coral snake, copperhead, pygmy rattler) , life could get interesting. The climate/wildlife also is very friendly to rabies. Historically, Yellow Fever was enough of a problem that towns changed their names to avoid the word "yellow" (Yellow Bluff became Ozona, for example). This is also not terribly speculative -- one friend was bitten by a pygmy rattler, our vet's son bitten by a diamondback (and it was treated with veterinary antivenin!), my composition teacher caught a bad case of encephalitis from a mosquito bite, a friend of my cousin's was killed and eaten by an alligator. Another friend had to do the rabies series after an animal bite, and I recall seeing a bunch of dead (presumed from rabies) bats on another friend's driveway. -
muoncounter at 08:31 AM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
Dale#52: "Since human emissions are constant... " Incorrect. Emissions go up and down with global economic activity. See the graphs here. The portion of anthro CO2 that remains in the atmosphere varies with the ocean's ability to soak it up and year-to-year changes in growing conditions. "That means there's a 30GT per year variance." That makes no sense at all. -
Dale at 08:08 AM on 16 August 2011Murry Salby - Confused About The Carbon Cycle
DSL Of course I'm not saying that. ENSO is only one part of the puzzle which affects weather. Though a sustained ENSO in one direction may influence climate (not control it). But what it does do is alter weather in the greater Pacific basin (Aust and US included) which influences plant growth which in turn alters the carbon cycle.
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