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Comments 78051 to 78100:
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Just Put the Model Down, Roy
...still laughing over the "rainbow monkeys" bit. Seriously: >30 unconstrained parameters? What a pointless exercise. -
Eric the Red at 01:22 AM on 2 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Ken, It appears that we were in the same mind frame. Thank you for the compliment. I agree with BP @93, in that the deep ocean cannot warm if the surface does not. Any warming of ocean water will simply cause that water to rise closer to the surface, and settling at that depth which corresponds to its density. BP says this quite well. -
Berényi Péter at 00:58 AM on 2 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
#90 Ken Lambert at 23:58 PM on 1 August, 2011 No steric rise means no heat sequestered in the oceans which as the major heat store on the planet means no warming. Personally I don't believe much heat can be sequestered in the deep ocean. That's because its temperature is regulated. Not by simple quasi-linear feedbacks, but by a true nonlinear regulator, a thermostat. At least as long as there remains some sea ice anywhere on the planet in any season. And not even the wildest projections suggest it would disappear altogether any time soon at any conceivable level of CO2 (lets say in a million years). Simply the current configuration of continents is such it can't happen at all. Sea ice, even if it is gone for the summer, winter come returns. Now, downwelling happens where seawater is densest, that is, where its temperature is just above freezing. If there is sea ice, it must happen somewhere close to the edge, where there is still open water (to make heat exchange with the atmosphere possible). Temperature of these water masses is not determined by climate, but by the physical properties of water. If climate changes, the location of downwelling can (and does) shift, but it always finds the proper place where temperature is next to freezing. It means if by some increased mechanical forcing (probably more intense winds) a bit more heat gets mixed down to the abyss, sooner or later abyssal waters get lighter than ice-cold waters at certain locations above, so they simply switch place. It does not mean heat content of the deep ocean can't fluctuate, because characteristic reaction times of the system can be quite large. Actual location of downwelling can also change, because the thermostat only requires downwelling to happen somewhere (anywhere) along the ice edge, where salinity happens to be the highest and/or cooling is most vigorous. For example under certain circumstances downwelling in the North Atlantic can shift south or cease for a while altogether (for several centuries) which can have a huge impact on the local climate of lands bordering this ocean (Europe & Norh America), but would not influence deep ocean heat content much, because if it increases, flux of downwelling integrated over the entire surface should also increase and temperature of downwelling water is strictly constrained. -
muoncounter at 00:54 AM on 2 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
EtR#75: "You may be interested in this paper" Yes, there are some interesting conclusions drawn. Forgive the lengthy quote, but it's always fun to read exactly what we've heard as skeptic arguments demolished point-by-point: Critics may argue that climate change is slow, providing ample adjustment time. However, climate change is expected to raise the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which play a role in migrations. Critics may also argue that economic growth in LDCs will solve the problem, financing mitigation and adaptation, and reducing dependence on the environment. However, this will considerably raise their demand for energy, and with the current technology, accelerate climate change. Facing this conundrum, I propose that we take initiative early on, defending against climate change problems before they grow. This effort should focus on LDCs most vulnerable to environmental migration and conflict. For example, vulnerable LDCs could lessen their dependence on the environment for livelihood or protect certain areas against rising sea level. These programs will likely be lengthy, complex, and expensive ... Nevertheless, assuming we decide to implement this effort, who would fund it? The ‘‘polluter pays’’ principle which DCs implement at home, suggests that DCs should finance most of the effort required to defend the LDCs against the effects of climate change, as over-reliance of the DCs on fossil fuels is the primary cause of climate change. -- emphases added, albeit hardly necessary -
Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Albatross - Thank you, that clarifies matters a great deal. Berényi took the highest available melt estimates (and not checking whether accelerations from >5 years ago held until now), the lowest available SLR estimates (very short term, statistically unsupportable), and used those singular values to claim Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011) was invalid. A reasonable approach might be to look at the high and low estimates for both melt and SLR, with uncertainties, and see how the Von Schuckmann paper estimates fell relative to those bounds. But that wouldn't have supported his argument. So - cherry picking numbers from both extrema of input/output values that contradict, possibly confirmation bias, no consideration of uncertainties or disagreements in the field - yet another BP kerfuffle, another waste of time. -
apiratelooksat50 at 00:10 AM on 2 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
DB at 73 I never stated that the US Army was not. I stated that my friend who is a Battalion Commander has never heard of any climate related security issues. So, if the Army is working on something it has not filtered down yet.Response:[DB] Speaking in generalities tends to draw unwanted attention; had you been more precise, I would not have intruded.
That said, expecting the rank-and-file to be kept "in-the-loop" by the powers-that-be is not credible.
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Kevin C at 00:09 AM on 2 August 2011Antarctica is gaining ice
While I'm very wary of drawing any conclusion from a single paper (an error which this article suffers from particularly, in my opinion), the following paper adds another piece to the puzzle. (Whether it is in the right place is another question. Given that they claim an increasing sea ice trend, when the trend itself is barely significant, I have reservations about the statistics.) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/Shu_etal_2011.pdf (via Ari at AGW observer) -
Ken Lambert at 00:09 AM on 2 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
ETR #89 I posted #90 at the same time as you did #89. It seems we are saying pretty much the same thing - except you probably said it better. Can you find any 'colossal' errors in BP's posts? In fact I find his contributions startling, original and well researched, and when the smoke clears from the flak BP attracts - his arguments invariably stack up. -
Kevin C at 00:06 AM on 2 August 2011Antarctica is gaining ice
While I'm very wary of drawing any conclusion from a single paper (an error which this article suffers from particularly, in my opinion), the following paper adds another piece to the puzzle. (Whether it is in the right place is another question.) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/Shu_etal_2011.pdf (via Ari at AGW observer) -
Ken Lambert at 23:58 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Albatross, KR, Rob Painting Quoting the original Rignot et al.(2011) paper thus: "Using techniques other than GRACE and MBM, the mass loss of mountain glaciers and ice caps (GIC), includin the GIC surrounding Greenland and Antarctica, has been estimated at 402 ± 95 Gt/yr in 2006, with an acceleration of 11.8 ± 6 Gt/yr2 over the last few decades [Kaser et al., 2006; Meier et al., 2007]. Our GRACE estimates and associated errors account for the leakage from the Greenland and Antarctica GIC, and, as discussed earlier, this leakage is small. The MBM estimates completely exclude the GIC. In year 2006, the total ice sheet loss was 475 ± 158 Gt/yr(regression line in Figure 2c), which is comparable or greater than the 402 ± 95 Gt/yr estimate for the GIC. More important,the acceleration in ice sheet loss of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2 is three times larger than that for the GIC. If this trend continues, ice sheets will become the dominant contribution to sea level rise in the next decades, well in advance of model forecasts [Meehl et al., 2007]." Glacier & Ice Cap loss in 2006 is 402+/-95 Gt/yr Ice Sheet Loss in 2006 was 475+/-158 Gt/yr Total in 2006 : 877+/-253GT/yr Acceleration both respectively: 11.8 + 36.3 = 48.1Gt/yr2 BP at #9 then multiplied the acceleration by 5 years (2006-10) to give an approx extra 240Gt/yr. The total in 2010 was therefore 877 + 240 = 1117 Gt/yr. Equiv sea level rise assuming 360Gt/yr = 1mm/yr is therefore 1117/360 = 3.1mm/yr. Where is BP's 'colossal' error in this calculation? Now Rignot et al.(2011) might be an overestimate of land ice melt and these SLR estimates have wide error bars - however if satellite total SLR has slowed to about 2.3mm/yr then ice melt mass contributions in the 2-3mm/yr range (even Dr Trenberth quoted 2mm/yr in his Aug09 paper)means that steric rise is very small, negligible or negative. No steric rise means no heat sequestered in the oceans which as the major heat store on the planet means no warming. -
Eric the Red at 23:58 PM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate, I appreciable the compliment. It appears that we are searching for similar problems and solutions to specific, rather than generic, issues. SLR has been an issue for mankind since we first started migrating about this planet. Some, like New Orleans and the Netherlands have adopted large engineering feats to combat this issue, while Blangladeshis moved to neighboring lands. You may be interested in this paper. http://130.238.7.16/h/heax7669/Samh%E4llets%20Geografi/Artiklar/Reuveny.pdf Never underestimate mother, mother ocean. -
Eric the Red at 23:29 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
You would not think that the Rignot (2011) paper would create such a controvery. People seem to accept part of the conclusion, but not others, even though the are connected. Everyone seems to agree that the Rignot paper claimed an ice mass loss of 475 +/- 95 Gt/yr. There appears to be disagreement about whether the ice mass loss is accelerating, and whether it is linear. If it is linear, 36 Gt / yr as shown in the plot by RP in @80, then the ice loss for 2011 would be 655 Gt, which equates to about 1.9 mm / yr of SLR. Rignot (2011) also mentioned that the contribution from mountain glaciers was 402 Gt/yr, with an accelerated rate of 12 Gt / yr. Albatross @84 showed that this values comes from Meier, et. al. (2007). That would amount to another 1.3 mm /yr of SLR. Eliminating the rounding, results in a 2011 SLR of 3.1mm / yr. As Albtatross pointed out in @84, this is at the high end. Wu found a total of 159 mm /yr from Greenland and Antarctica, which equates to 0.44 mm /yr of SLR. We clearly have a wide range of values. Since the values taken from Rignot (2011) exceed the recently measured SLR (The University of Colorado has acknowledged a deceleration recently from the 18-year trend), claims that these values overestimate the loss of glacial ice from Greenland and Antarctica appear justified. This is supported by the findings of Leuliette & Willis (2011) showing a SLR of 2.2 mm /yr. The question posed is whether Rignot (2011) contradicts the results of von Schuckmann and La Traon (2011). Clearly, both cannot be accurate, unless the SLR values are significantly low. Either Rignot's mass balance valus are too high, or his acceleration is in error, or von Schuckmann and La Traon are calculating too high of a steric component to SLR. Both of these calculations appear to much greater sources of error that the measured SLR values. Personally, I believe they are both too high, and am siding with the values presented by Leuliette & Willis (2011). -
Composer99 at 22:13 PM on 1 August 2011Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
The link to the US Department of Commerce in point 8 of the list of inquiries clearing the scientists (Intermediate rebuttal) is now broken. -
Alan E at 21:56 PM on 1 August 2011Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
Get a recognised qualified economist to formally critique Monckton's analysis for media publication. Gotta carry weight. -
Tony Noerpel at 21:49 PM on 1 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part One: The Red Queen
Killian is refering to Steve Keen's "Debunking Ecnomics". Keen shows that neo-classical economics, in which Milton Friedman/ Ayn Rand free market school happens to reside, is mathematically self-inconsistent. Ecnomics does not share the rigor of the hard sciences. The book was written in 2001 and foresees the economic meltdown. The second edition should be published this fall and is double the size of the first edition. A study by Bezemer (2009) http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15892/1/MPRA_paper_15892.pdf shows that only 12 economists saw the recent economic crises coming. Keen was one of the 12. I wrote this book review here http://brleader.com/?p=5068 One mistake Ridley makes is to assume corporations, the loigcal outcome of unregulated free-markets, are somehow different than governments or organized religion. A great book but wait for the second edition. Tony -
Tony O at 20:06 PM on 1 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part One: The Red Queen
"Life without state is nasty short and brutish" Thomas Hobbes Ridley's argument ignores the often missed fact that the rapid creation of wealth has occurred where there is lots of government. We undertake many transactions because we can do so with relative confidence. No government, no safety means transactions are done with considerable difficulty and so far fewer transactions will occur. Life without government: China in the thirties and Somalia today. Do we really want to negotiate dozens of tolls to travel a few miles. Do we want to spend a large proportion of our wealth on protection. Property rights do not exist in a vacuum. -
Robert Murphy at 19:38 PM on 1 August 2011Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
#126: "No mention of green house gas emissions from volcanic sources. Why is this?" Because volcanic GHG emissions are tiny compared to other sources - about 130 to 150 times less per year than what we release burning fossil fuels, for instance.Moderator Response: Indeed. For details see "Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans." -
ashleyj722 at 18:56 PM on 1 August 2011Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
No mention of green house gas emissions from volcanic sources. Why is this? -
scaddenp at 18:45 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Of course, it should go without saying that if BP can conceive of no data that would convince him that he was wrong, then he is in boat as poptart and should be ignored. From some posts, he seems to be motivated by an abhorrence for windmills but I suspect AGW offends his political values. If so, then it would be interesting if he would comment on my comment concerning political acceptable solutions if convinced that mitigation was cheaper -
scaddenp at 18:37 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
I asked BP what data would convince him that he was wrong which makes his choice of these parameters odd in my opinion. It would imply that these parameters are able to unequivocally show global warming whereas he denies more conventional measures. I am intrigued as to why he has picked these and also why not Argo which looks to me like the most precise instrument for global heat balance that we possess. -
Albatross at 17:13 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Rob, "and will he come back to apologize for slurs against Eric Rignot and co-authors, and Von Schuckmann and Le Traon." Doubtful. Also, I have yet to see a 'skeptics" or someone in denial about AGW concede an error or correct said error. But we can always hope that if they are operating in good faith and being true 'skeptics' in search of the truth, that they will do so (i.e, correct errors and apologize for slurs against scientists). -
Albatross at 17:10 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Rob @80, It may help for Berényi Péterto look at Hansen et al. (2011), specifically Fig. 18 and the accompanying text: "The "high" estimates in Fig. 18 for Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, 281 and 176 Gt/year (360 Gt = 1 mm sea level), are from Velicogna (2009). A recent analysis (Rignot et al., 2011) compares surface mass budget studies and the gravity method, finding support for the high estimates of Velicogna (2009). The low estimate for Greenland, 104 Gt/year, is from Wu et al. (2010). The low estimate for Antarctica, 55 Gt/year is the low end of the range -105 ± 50 Gt/year of S. Luthcke et al. (private communication, 2011). The high value for melt of glaciers and small ice caps (400 Gt/year) is the estimate of Meier et al." Also see my post @64 for a summary. The claim made here by "skeptics" for a mean annual contribution of 3.1 mm/yr from ice melt between 2005 and 2010 (the period under consideration) is simply not supported in the literature, even after allowing for acceleration. It seems that what Berényi Péter has done is to estimate rate of increase in 2011 (using a start value in 2006), and assumed that that value applies each and every year from 2005-2010. Ironically Berényi Péter repeatedly accuses Rignot et al. (2011) of overestimating the ice loss, but he in fact appears to have artificially inflated their numbers. Although Berényi Péter used all the satellite data to calculate his rate of increase, it seems that he uses the rate of increase in in 2011 (he does not provide specifics or an equation, but it looks like a quadratic fit), and that value is of course in disagreement for the mean linear rate of increase obtained by all the official agencies for the same satellite GSL dataset. What he should be doing is looking at the mean rate of increase in the satellite GSL data for 2005-2010, just as the scientists at the agencies did. Finally, Berényi Péter has failed to demonstrate that the fit he decided to use (a quadratic or whatever he used) for the satellite GSL data is indeed better fit to the data than a linear fit at statistically significant level. So at the end of the day, Berényi Péter has failed to concede that he is wrong and correct his errors (despite a few people pointing this out and trying to explain to him where he went wrong), and he has failed to refute von Shuckmann and La Traon (2011). Quelle suprise. Now I am done wasting my valuable time on BP. -
Rob Painting at 16:41 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Scaddenp - windspeed over the oceans at mid latitudes is important for vertical mixing of heat into the depths. And cloud cover over the Southern Hemisphere has increased in the last decade (consistent with the indirect effect of aerosols). It's detailed in the Hatzianastassiou (2011) paper I linked to at @57. The paper should published at the end of August (hopefully). Albatross - I'm wondering whether BP's humongous error in his calculations has dawned on him yet, and will he come back to apologize for slurs against Eric Rignot and co-authors, and Von Schuckmann and Le Traon? -
Albatross at 16:10 PM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
Scaddenp @81, BP seems to be uncritically accepting the results of Paltridge et al. (2009) with regards to trends in upper-tropospheric moisture. He ought to read Dessler and Davis (2010): "In response to decadal climate fluctuations, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is unique in showing decreases in tropical mid and upper tropospheric specific humidity as the climate warms. All of the other reanalyses show that decadal warming is accompanied by increases in mid and upper tropospheric specific humidity." But this is going horribly OT. -
Rob Painting at 16:07 PM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
Composer99 - Have you read the interview transcipt over at Joe Romm's blog?. It's a doozy. The whole thing is about the dead polar bears that Dr Monnett and his associate saw during the surveys. They spend almost 2 hours interviewing him about the 4 dead polar bears, and at the end of the interview decline to outline the details of the allegations against him. There's a couple of funny moments where the interviewers keep getting muddled up over the number of dead polar bears, trying to trip up Dr Monnett, they have a hard time grasping that 3 of the dead polars were seen in the survey area, and one was seen enroute to the survey area. Yeah, it's a witchhunt. -
Composer99 at 13:11 PM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
Out of courtesy to my source, I should like to include a link to Deltoid. -
Tom Curtis at 13:11 PM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
apirate @51, given the line of questioning in the interview between the investigators and Monnet, the real story here is: Who accussed Monnet of wrong doing? and What evidence of wrong doing did they present? I suspect the motivation for the accusation was entirely political, and that it had no evidentiary basis. Last week in Australia, Christopher Monckton said that the anti-climate science movement was "coming for" the climate scientists, and that those climate scientists were going to be "locked away". Given the politically motivated investigations into Michael Mann, and now this investigation of Monnett, it appears he meant it seriously. Climate scientists have been given clear warning that if they tell the truth about climate, the American political right intends to treat them like criminals. -
Composer99 at 13:05 PM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
Courtesy of Deltoid, I have found the link to the article by the organization PEER, which is advocating on behalf of Dr Monnett. I recommend the links provided at the bottom to documents pertaining to the case. -
Composer99 at 11:49 AM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
So let me get this straight: According to the news story, a scientist is under investigation for events occuring in 2004 which may or may not have anything to do with his observing a small number of dead polar bears in the water while undertaking other research. And this is somehow supposed to outweigh a study undertaken over five years which made use of GPS collars to accurately (given the known limitations of GPS) track polar bears. Right. -
muoncounter at 11:41 AM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
What now, polarbeargate? the disclosure has generated a firestorm on the blogosphere as climate change skeptics are wildly speculating Only on FoxNews (your source) does 'under investigation' mean 'guilty'. Except for Rupert Murdoch. -
muoncounter at 11:35 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate#74, Sorry, nothing personal. I read the 'at least' in "the Navy at least is developing contingency plans" as a qualifier on what they were doing (at least they are developing plans). But this is now wayyy off topic. -
apiratelooksat50 at 11:12 AM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
I wish this article had been out a week earlier! Polar Bear Researcher Under Investigation for Integrity Issues -
apiratelooksat50 at 11:10 AM on 1 August 2011Visions of the Arctic
Michael Sweet at 48 Directly from the article: "The cubs of the bears that have been around for a while appear malnourished and far too small for the end of June." Obviously, the mother and cubs had been in hibernation per elementary polar bear biology. You clearly did not read the article for its content. -
apiratelooksat50 at 10:55 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Muon@73 You are so predisposed to find fault in anything I write, that you are not reading what I write. I typed "the Navy AT LEAST". That doesn't exclude the other branches of the US Military. Earlier in July I was in the panhandle of Florida and drove through Tyndall AFB on the way out. It is a very low lying area and will obviously be affected by any SLR down the road. I plan on doing IronMan Florida there in 2012. One would expect the US Army with most of their bases being inland to be the least concerned about SLR.Response:[DB] It strains credulity beyond the breaking point that the Joint Chiefs would have all of the branches developing contingency plans except for one.
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muoncounter at 09:21 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate#68: "the Navy at least is developing contingency plans for SLR" Confusion? Hardly. Eglin is a large Air Force Base in 'panhandle' Florida. Camp LeJeune is a Marine Corps base on the coast of North Carolina. And who is building all those floodwalls in New Orleans? The US Army Corps of Engineers. The other branch of the service is called the Coast Guard; I think they're up to speed as well. -
scaddenp at 09:19 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
"at some point in the future the oceans will recede again" planning for 10,000+ years in future seems somewhat impractical. -
scaddenp at 09:18 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Walk to work, send kids to schools they can walk to, public transport, renewable electricity purchase, (NZ is 73% renewable anyway), dont fly overseas - dont attend conferences, converted from gas heating to wood pellet heating, double-glazed and double-insulated (rare here), minimize on gadgets - especially from coal-fired sources - paying more for goods that will last longer, advocate for renewable energy (eg this article. Answering my last question should be question of amount of embodied energy imported from China (especially compared to say 1992 which was last time USA had a trade surplus I think?). -
Rob Painting at 09:05 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Pirate -"Think about this: at some point in the future the oceans will recede again and the naval bases will have to extend instead of retreat.' I doubt very much there'll be a US navy in the years 2200 -2500. -
scaddenp at 09:03 AM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
BP - that is intriguing list. From that I take it Argo would not cause you to change your mind. "A long, continuous, global, dense and consistent database of UTH (Upper Tropospheric Humidity) would be nice. The same for cloud cover. And windspeed over the Southern ocean." Now what robust predictions from climate theory about these data sets cause you to think that these would change your mind? And yet data sets that directly measure warming you discount? -
scaddenp at 08:58 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
"I will leave it up to you to tell villagers in Asia, Africa, or South America that they can't have" Their rights, like yours, like mine, only extend as far as not constricting the rights of others. As far as I can see, that means reducing CO2 emissions much faster than now. The Western world is responsible for almost all of the current increase in CO2 in the atmosphere and so it seems to me that we are beholden to the most to reduce. Whatever you personal choices, I would say US government action has been exceedingly ineffective. And by the way, looking USA trade deficit, how much of the very modest reduction in emissions is from exporting these emissions to China? -
apiratelooksat50 at 08:58 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
muon @ 65 I plaiinly stated that the Navy at least is developing contingency plans for SLR. I don't understand your confuion. Bases built in areas of low elevation are going to have to address any possible future changes in sea level. Think about this: at some point in the future the oceans will recede again and the naval bases will have to extend instead of retreat. -
Rob Painting at 08:47 AM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
BP "Rignot also says ice loss of polar ice sheets accelerates at a rate of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2, which makes 0.101 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 (and 2006 was five years ago). Also, he happens to mentions GIC (Glaciers & Ica Caps) which add another 402 ± 95 Gt/yr in 2006, that is, 1.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Also with acceleration of course, 11.8 ± 6 Gt/yr2 in this case, that is, 0.033 ± 0.014 mm/yr2................Go figure Go figure indeed. At least I now know how you arrive at your erroneous calculations, so it's useful in that respect. Just how much of Rignot (2011) did you read? You committed the logical fallacy of linear extrapolation. Here's a hint:
I think it's a bit rich for you to proclaim the experts wrong when you don't even understand the basics.
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apiratelooksat50 at 08:43 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
mufon@63 Thank you for the link. I followed it and found many interesting papers. Some of the research was actually done in my state and at research centers that I have worked at. Very cool! I have not had time to read more than a few of the presentations. But, at least one them mentioned something that I have been thinking about. Of course SLR will eventually cause freshwater marshes to convert to saltwater marshes and then the saltwater marshes to disappear as the water gets deeper. However, it should be remembered that that new marshes will be created at the same time. Simple arithmetic will confirm that overall there will be a loss of wetlands because of shrinking land mass, but they just don't go away. The pluses have to be factored in with the minuses. I think too many times the minuses only are focused on. And, I am providing a link to my thesis to show you that I really have studied and worked with these people. I am not sure if the thesis will pull up or not. My focus was on crawfish, but I did a tremendous amount of work with redfish and oysters as well. -
muoncounter at 08:43 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate#64: "I talked to two of my friends..." Is that what constitutes research? Let's try the Google machine: Here's a .mil website about SLR impact that cites the CNA study. A recent study directed by a board of senior retired military officers also recommended that the DoD conduct assessments of the impact on United States military installations of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other projected climate change impacts over the next 30 to 40 years. Here's a DoD workshop: The project’s sea level rise risk assessment moves beyond the arguments of cause and effect and begin planning to address its potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change and sea level rise are clear, the disruption of the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. This from Defense News: A sea-level rise in the Arctic over the next two decades is "highly certain to occur and highly certain to come with economic costs" in a region thought to hold more than one-fifth of the world's untapped hydrocarbons, it said. I don't know who CNA is, nor do I care. The fact is that the US military recognizes this problem, whether you do or not. -
Berényi Péter at 08:23 AM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
#77 scaddenp at 07:20 AM on 1 August, 2011 In short, is there any conceivable data that would cause you to change your mind? A long, continuous, global, dense and consistent database of UTH (Upper Tropospheric Humidity) would be nice. The same for cloud cover. And windspeed over the Southern ocean. Declassifying some military databases perhaps? Mining them for climate indicators? -
apiratelooksat50 at 08:14 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
muoncounter @ 40 I was intriqued by your link to the CNA document. I talked to two of my friends who are active duty military. One is a Lt. Colonel in the US Army and has served extensively overseas in combat sitatutions. The other is a Lt. Commander in the US Navy and has served stateside only in various functions. The Army officer has never heard of this document, and further stated that he has never been briefed on any security issues relating to climate change. The Naval officer had heard of this study. He did not know who it was commissioned by. He said the USN is looking at contingency plans for their ports and bases as it pertains to sea level rise. However, he had no knowledge of security issues related to SLR. -
muoncounter at 08:08 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate#60 and EtR: "I honestly want to know about the ecosystems that are definitely in danger due to SLR" There's an ample list of ecosystems among the papers I referenced here. Do the homework. "SLR is going to be slow in human terms" Do you still refuse to accept the well-documented conclusion that SLR, however slow, a. Has already had serious effects b. Shortens the return time of the '100 year storm' c. Makes storm surges worse? I suspect so, because you're still going on about this being a slow problem, one that can be postponed for someone else to solve. If so, you've proved my point here. Or as a wise man once said, if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. -
apiratelooksat50 at 08:06 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
scaddenp @ 61 Americans are reducing our emissions. There is a lot of pushback and a lot of that is from environmental groups whether it concerns solar or wind or nuclear. I get my power from nuclear and hydroelectric. I am not sure where you are coming from on your last sentence. Everyone on Earth should be able to enjoy the benefits of electricity and transportation. I am quite sure you do. Food lasts longer, living conditions are more tolerable, medicine can be properly maintained, etc... I will leave it up to you to tell villagers in Asia, Africa, or South America that they can't have that because CO2 emissions lead to AGW and that leads to SLR. Certainly, there are smarter ways to do manage our use of FF. Certainly, mistakes have been made. But, I feel quite certain in the next few decades new sources of energy will come online and be dependable and affordable. -
scaddenp at 07:52 AM on 1 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
pirate - I live in NZ. And yes, those are difficult questions. That is whole point. Americans in particular push the viewpoint of individual liberty of action and with it goes the responsibility for the consequences. However, responsibility can be very difficult to assign, especially for inter-generational debt hence the need to governement action. You cannot find a way to cost the responsibility, therefore you limit your emissions. Either solve the problems of assignment of responsibility or dont incur the liability. You dont seriously entertain the idea that western world should enjoy the benefit of FF use while the rest of the world pays for the consequences? -
Berényi Péter at 07:49 AM on 1 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
#65 Rob Painting at 01:19 AM on 1 August, 2011 The Rignot (2011) paper cited by BP says this: "In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 G t /y r , equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise." How do we get from that, to BP's 3.1mm per year? Just a bit more attention, please. Rignot also says ice loss of polar ice sheets accelerates at a rate of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2, which makes 0.101 ± 0.006 mm/yr2 (and 2006 was five years ago). Also, he happens to mentions GIC (Glaciers & Ica Caps) which add another 402 ± 95 Gt/yr in 2006, that is, 1.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Also with acceleration of course, 11.8 ± 6 Gt/yr2 in this case, that is, 0.033 ± 0.014 mm/yr2. Go figure.
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