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KR at 01:32 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD - "MacKay uses 15W/m2 energy density for desert sited CSP" That's low even by CSP standards - the Spanish AndaSol facility will have (due to only a small percentage of fill area) a gross efficiency of 2.6%, or >20 W/m^2. CSP has a conversion efficiency of 18-30% of collection area, depending on design, with some of the linear trough and Fresnel layouts having considerably higher fill factors than basic tower geometries. Fully filled a CSP would have a 200 W/m^2 output, although I don't expect that to get over ~100 given current designs. They do seem to be less expensive to build than PV systems on a per/Watt basis, though, and thermal storage is very attractive. Now - taking a look at PV power plants, which can attain fill factors approaching 100%, we're looking at 150 W/m^2 for a 15% efficient PV system. So - your 15 W/m^2 is low to start with, by almost an order of magnitude. -
Alec Cowan at 01:22 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom, why you bother? It looks to me like just some game of power is played here, with (non)-renewable energies as the party theme. Be sure of not being driven where you don't want to be. You can't address the arguments of an innumerate using his own 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 70s and multiplying or dividing by 2 like they do. Get your figures reusable. Never do them just for these creatures: they don't want them, they don't allow them, and most importantly, they can't understand them as independent of wishing conclusions generated in advance. Also, let them to abuse of adjectives and other 'rhetoricalities'. Moderators: Please, consider if it is not time of flushing a lot of comments that are just spam. -
Esop at 01:02 AM on 12 July 2011SkS Weekly Digest #6
Check out UAH channel 5: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps Lower troposphere temperatures just matched the record (for the date) set in 2010. This despite us coming out of a major La Nina. I thought we were headed for a GCR induced Svensmark Ice Age. Didn't he claim that global warming stopped in 2009? Looks like he was wrong and James Hansen right about 2012 as the next record year. What a surprise. -
Tom Curtis at 01:00 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @244 (again): 1) The efficiency is unitless. It is kW/m^2 of electricity produced divided by kW/m^2 of insolation. 2) LAGI write:We can figure a capacity of .2KW per SM of land (an efficiency of 20% of the 1000 watts that strikes the surface in each SM of land). So now we know the capacity of each square meter and what our goal is. We have our capacity in KW so in order to figure out how much area we’ll need, we have to multiply it by the number of hours that we can expect each of those square meters of photovoltaic panel to be outputting the .2KW capacity (kilowatts x hours = kW•h)."
(my emphasis. Bolded section is the context BBD elided in his quotation.) So, and most emphatically, the 0.2 KW was not simply drawn from nowhere. It was calculated by multiplying the expected insolation by an efficiency factor. You may want to argue that 20% efficiency is to high, but it is not 100% efficiency. LAGI do not use a 200 Watt insolation value (which they give as 1000 W/m^2), and they do not omitting the panel conversion efficiency (which they give as 20%). What is more, LAGI explicitly stated this. Indeed, they did so in the sentence immediately before the paragraph you chose to quote. To quote, in fact, in order to prove that they used an insolation value one fifth of that which they had just stated they had used, and that they did not use the efficiency factor they explicitly stated they used. In my world, what you have done is called "quotation out of context" and your example ranks well up their with some of the more egregious examples I have seen from creationists. Now I will once give you the benefit of the doubt and simply assume that you are not practised in reading for comprehension. But you had better come down of your high horse and pretence that we are not reading your words of wisdom when you are plainly not reading our simple statements of fact. -
BBD at 00:55 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
More good grief:3) LAGI quotes a 20% efficiency of collection. For comparison , the Andasol 1, 2 and 3 plants have a 28% peak efficiency and an annual average of 15%, so 20% is reasonable.
The words 'annual average' mean 'annual average'. So an 'annual average' of 15% is and annual average of 15%. Not 20% or half a green cheese. This is not the stuff of rational debate. -
Alec Cowan at 00:52 AM on 12 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
@#15 Rob, why somebody would analyse "the Medieval Warming Period" and "the Litle Ice Age" if not for comparison with actual developments? If the adjectives "Western European" or "Northern Atlantic" were added, that would be a horse of a different colour. Why a warming period in human history has no paired higher global temperature to show? So, there must be some preconceptions the researchers are trying to address, for instance, that the actual warming period can't be compared with the so-called MWP. Then, baselines are important, otherwise, why they use anomalies instead of instrumental temperatures? If we have to be sensitive to change, be sure we are sensitized using a proper base. In a post that is addressing general publics that is no minor an issue. On the other hands, when a thing is an important subject for analysis and not a bit of a stretch, one should easily find other works with other base temperatures. Summarizing: MWP, LIA and actual AGW could be "easily" shown in contrast against a "normal" base, showing some misleading local warming and cooling for the first two what has clearly nothing to do with actual developments. Don't we have it? Well, such things happen when one allows [-snipped inflammatory comment] to dictate one's syllabus. -
Eric the Red at 00:52 AM on 12 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
True, Am I misreading Figure 1. It looks as if Mann was saying that the two Russian areas were cooling by 1+C rather than warmer by 1+C. If Mann is stating that they were warming, then I agree. Sphaerica, Some evidence, in addition to those precedented in my previous post, showing a global MWP. http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/CookPalmer.pdf http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/rrusso/gly6932/Oppo_etal_Nature09.pdf http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009JD012603.pdf -
BBD at 00:51 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom MacKay is Mr Renewables. He's a big fan. Why would he do this?It is a rather underhanded way to deflate the actual efficiencies of solar plants.
Why? He's also a professor of physics at Cambridge. And the chief scientific advisor to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). But, yes, of course he's talking through his hat and you are entirely correct. Go back, and read #236 and #244 again. Carefully. And read Mackay's chapter 25 thoroughly including end notes. Your work here is sloppy. -
BBD at 00:44 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom I'm getting fed up with this:2) Mackay also quotes an average annual capacity of 15 Watts/m^2 for concentrated solar in North African deserts. You have provided no explanation for this discrepancy.
See #244, third from last paragraph. Follow the link at "it doesn't matter if it's CSP or SVP". Read, and inwardly digest.3) LAGI quotes a 20% efficiency of collection. For comparison , the Andasol 1, 2 and 3 plants have a 28% peak efficiency and an annual average of 15%, so 20% is reasonable.
How do you do it? How can you read a crystal-clear explanation of how LAGI gets it wrong and still come back with this? It is clear that you are not reading my comments. You have one of the most relentlessly closed minds I have encountered for a while. You need to open up a bit.you will not take me in with a shell game.. Good grief. The only person deceiving you is yourself. Stop muddling. Start thinking. Go back and read #236 and #244. It's all there. -
Tom Curtis at 00:39 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @244, quotes Mackay as saying:""All the world’s power could be provided by a square 100 km by 100 km in the Sahara.” Is this true? Concentrating solar power in deserts delivers an average power per unit land area of roughly 15 W/m2. So, allowing no space for anything else in such a square, the power delivered would be 150 GW. This is not the same as current world power consumption. It’s not even near current world electricity consumption, which is 2000 GW. "
(my emphasis) Ignoring the irrelevance given that LAGI calculate an area of approx 500,000 km^2, not 10,000 km^2 (100*100), we now know that when Mackay writes "allowing no space for anything else" he actually means "using just one quarter of that space for the solar field". We also know that he arbitrarily and with no justification given excludes any possibility of dual land use, at least in that calculation. (At another point in the book he points out that wind and solar power can occupy the same land footprint with very little loss of efficiency for either, then brushes it of. Clearly offshore wind and wave power can also take advantage of shared location with no efficiency loss in generation, and efficiency gains for transmission.) However, I do admit that my 232 was in error, partly because I did not note Mackay's mistaken figure of 1/3rd land used when he meant 1/2, but mostly because I made an error due to tiredness (at 3:41 am). -
Tom Curtis at 00:23 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD, KR and I have both read 236. What is more, I adressed your arguments in 236 directly and found them to be without foundation. Disagreeing with you is not the same thing as not having read your comments or understood them. If anything, it is rather the opposite, a sign of both having read and understood what you say. To review: 1) Mackay quotes an average annual insolation rate in England of 100 Watts/m^2 after allowing for the effects of latitude and weather. A 15% efficient collector in England will therefore collect 15 Watts/m^2 even if laid flat on the ground. 2) Mackay also quotes an average annual capacity of 15 Watts/m^2 for concentrated solar in North African deserts. You have provided no explanation for this discrepancy. 3) LAGI quotes a 20% efficiency of collection. For comparison , the Andasol 1, 2 and 3 plants have a 28% peak efficiency and an annual average of 15%, so 20% is reasonable. 4) LAGI quote a thousand Watts of direct sunlight for 2,000 hours (23%) of the year for a total of 2,000 kWh/m^2 of direct sunlight per annum. For comparison, the Andersol plants experience per annum from 2,136 kWh/m^2 per annum in the south of Spain, so again the LAGI figures are conservative with areas in North Africa likely to experience much more both because of higher solar intensity and fewer cloud days. 5) From this LAGI calculate an electricity production of 400 kWh/m^2 per annum. For comparison, the Andasol plants achieve 350 kWh/m^2 per annum, so again the LAGI calculated value is reasonable. Indeed, with much of North Africa experiencing 17% more annual insolation than the south of Spain, that alone would lift an Andasol style plant in North Africa to 400kWh/m^2. I have to admit to being perplexed by Mackay's insistence on using a power generation factor of 15 W/m^2 in desert, until I stumbled on his description of the efficiency of the Andasol plant, which he gives as 10 W/m^2. In fact the Andersol plants achieve 41 W/m^2 of solar field averaged over the year, four times the amount Mackay quotes. The reason is evident, the solar field of the Andersol plants occupy just one quarter the site area. Mackay is calculating the efficiency relative to the site area rather than to the solar field. It is a rather underhanded way to deflate the actual efficiencies of solar plants. It is underhanded because, unlike in the south of England, in the south of Spain, and certainly in North Africa, the cost of land is so little as to be an almost negligible component of the overall cost. If it were not, it would be trivially easy to inflate the efficiency of power production per unit site area at a cost to the efficiency of power production per unit of solar field area. One obvious mechanism is to have adjacent troughs, with every second trough going to a neutral, non-shadow generating position when the sun is low in the sky, thus making the solar field almost equal in area to the site area most of the day, while halving efficiency relative to solar field area for a few hours on either side of dawn and dusk. Another method would be to have a continuous field of fixed shallow parabolic troughs with the collector moved during the day to remain in the focal point. In fact, if land area (rather than solar field area) where a real concern, it would probably be better to space the troughs further apart to allow more sunlight to the ground. The area between and under the troughs could then be used to grow fast growing grasses either for pasture or biofuel, thus gaining dual use of the land. None of these measures is considered worthwhile for the simple reason that the land itself is too small a cost to make such measures worthwhile. Mackay, in other words, is inflating a trivial cost as an artificial impediment to solar power. So, I'm happy to dump all preconceptions and start with an open mind, but you will not take me in with a shell game. -
Rob Honeycutt at 00:21 AM on 12 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
Sphaerica... Spot on. In fact, the whole challenge of the MWP is getting an accurate read on what the actual global temperature was then, rather than just local temps. What climate deniers continually do is locate the one (or a few) proxies that support their position and claim that everything beyond that is a big conspiracy without ever bothering to look at the full body of evidence. -
Eric (skeptic) at 00:18 AM on 12 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
I can imagine one source for warming in the MWP: a small forcing and a high sensitivity. I can also imagine that sensitivity is not a constant, in fact I propose that in various threads e.g. and never get an answer except "weather won't save us". It may well be that weather won't save us and that amplification of CO2 will be high. But that doesn't mean that weather didn't help cook the MWP.Moderator Response: (DB) You again make unsupported assertions (both here and on the other threads you reference) that fly in the face of known physics; that type of statement is referred to as "climastrology" and may fly in endeavors such as automotive research in the US, but is simply not credible in a climate science forum. -
Rob Honeycutt at 00:14 AM on 12 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
Alec... I'm not sure why you're stuck on baseline periods. Pick a baseline of your own, it doesn't really matter. Choose a random baseline period if you like, it doesn't change the result of any of the data. The only thing a baseline period does is establish a zero axis. -
Alec Cowan at 00:00 AM on 12 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
@BBD #236 How do you get all your numbers so round, even in your errata? It sounds pretty much like 100 scientist found 1000 reasons for temperature not raising 1 degree (Celsius/Kelvin, Fahrenheit, Réaumur, who cares?) in the next 100 years. With such figures, does anyone need to point what is wrong? I think not. 30 Helens would agree. -
Bob Lacatena at 23:49 PM on 11 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
11, Eric the Red,The MWP has been acknowledged as the last period of globally warm temperatures (not just NH as claimed above).
Completely untrue. Citation, please.The global temperature anomalies are similar to today...
Untrue. Citation please. It was not as warm, and temperatures in many, many areas were cooler. The warming was far from global, or equally distributed in either space or time. Hence, your statement is only remotely close to true if you use a running 200 year average to compute temperatures, and even then temperatures were still markedly lower than those of the last ten years in particular.Whether that period was warmer than today is still open to debate...
Not remotely true. Look at the literature instead of just making stuff up.In order to show that today's warming is unprecedented...
There is no need to show that today's warming is unprecedented. That it will inevitably be unprecedented, whether or not it is now, is the second important point, but the main point is that the cause of today's warming is unprecedented. It is being caused by the understandable and predicted effect of CO2, and it will be close to irreversible in human time frames if we take things too far. What is most entertaining about you, of all people, clinging to the MWP as yet another excuse to deny the physics behind climate science is the fact that there is no known or imaginable major source for warming in the MWP. This implies that such a cause was relatively small. This in turn points to a very, very high climate sensitivity as opposed to the foolishly low values to which you are so dearly wedded. That is the only way that the MWP could have been "as warm as today." If you believe in the MWP, then you must refute your need to cling to climate sensitivity predictions below 3˚C per doubling. -
Alec Cowan at 23:33 PM on 11 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
@#10 Rob, I'm downloading the article by Mann, Zhang, Rutherford et al, and the supporting online material and I'm finding -correct me if I'm wrong- that a few proxies were used, that grey masks indicates regions were 1961-1990 data is insufficient to draw climatic normals -not insufficient proxy data, what didn't mean there were aplenty-, regions without hatching didn't pass validation, and the whole set was got using computer modeling. I suppose that when I read and analyze the article and dataset -at the best of my capacity- I'll be able to find what role played the proxies other than getting low-frequency components of the signals to reconstruct. I know it's nice to look at a world map and confirm happy Vikings in Iceland and Greenland and turbulent Mongols and Tartars in the seek of better pastures. It looks like reassurance. It's not so nice that the reconstruction for the Little Ice Age in the same work is showing also not cooling Iceland and southern Greenland. In my opinion variability in times of slow changing technologies is what makes your living impossible. Then, what's the use of a 12-generation anomaly? What I've seen so far makes me think that not much more imprecision would have come from using 1941-1970 normals. What would have let us comparing MCA, LIA and nowadays AGW. There'll always be the layman approach to the driven conclusions. That shouldn't drive anybody to choose inappropriate base periods. -
Trueofvoice at 22:46 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
@Ed Davies, New Zealanders don't heat their homes? Planning on moving to NZ from South Carolina early next year. Should I stock up on really warm clothing? -
BBD at 22:42 PM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
KRYou keep returning to UK, and UK only - that's less than 0.2% the land area of the Earth - you are focusing on local issues rather than global.
I have always been clear to distinguish between UK and global issues (eg in discussion of wind power above). This is a misrepresentation. Your reading of the discussion above is similarly careless. Time to sharpen up. -
BBD at 22:39 PM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom You are making a hash of this. I think you should take deep breath and slow down a little.BBD @236 read 230 (and David Mackay) again. David Mackay quotes 100 Watt insolation per meter squared laid flat in England. 100*0.15 efficiency times 1 million meters squared per km squared = 15 million Watts collected [etc]
No. See here. Please read and re-read this until you have absorbed its meaning completely."All the world’s power could be provided by a square 100 km by 100 km in the Sahara.” Is this true? Concentrating solar power in deserts delivers an average power per unit land area of roughly 15 W/m2. So, allowing no space for anything else in such a square, the power delivered would be 150 GW. This is not the same as current world power consumption. It’s not even near current world electricity consumption, which is 2000 GW. World power consumption today is 15 000 GW. So the correct statement about power from the Sahara is that today’s consumption could be provided by a 1000 km by 1000 km square in the desert, completely filled with concentrating solar power. That’s four times the area of the UK. And if we are interested in living in an equitable world, we should presumably aim to supply more than today’s consumption. To supply every person in the world with an average European’s power consumption (125 kWh/d), the area required would be two 1000 km by 1000 km squares in the desert.
Let's be absolutely clear: - MacKay uses 15W/m2 energy density for desert sited CSP - Based on this assumption, the area of desert sited CSP required to provide 23TW is 1,533,333 km2. Unless you can show that there is an error here, you must concede this point.LAGI gives the conversion efficiency (2) as 0.2
[Please state units in further discussion.] No. LAGI does not use a conversion efficiency. It uses 0.2kW (insolation) and omits the panel conversion efficiency entirely. Once again, here is where they make the mistake:We have our capacity in KW so in order to figure out how much area we’ll need, we have to multiply it by the number of hours that we can expect each of those square meters of photovoltaic panel to be outputting the .2KW capacity (kilowatts x hours = kW•h).
Look: "the .2kW capacity". See? That's 200W/m2. Based on real-world installations, you're doing well to get 15% and it doesn't matter if it's SPV or CSP (well, actually it does - CSP is the better choice. What matters is that the conversion efficiency has not been factored into the LAGI analysis. That's why they think you can get 23TW out of 500,000 km2 and MacKay knows it will take ca 1.5 million km2 of desert sited CSP I repeat: you are rushing and being careless. Read this again. Then go back and read #236. -
Trueofvoice at 22:38 PM on 11 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
@ Eric, #11 Your link to Baikal Science confirms Mann's analysis. The areas it identifies as having significantly warmd during the MWP (Taymir and Putoran, are also labelled in Figure 1 above as having warmed. The area of the Ural Mountains discussed in your link to Demezhko are also represented as having warmed in figure 1. As you're currently 0-2 I'm not going to bother with your link to Solomina. -
BBD at 22:02 PM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Dump all preconceptions. Clear the mind and start afresh: #236 -
BBD at 22:01 PM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom Curtis KR Neither of you has understood the argument summarised at #236. In fact you do not even appear to have read it. Try again please. -
Eric the Red at 21:59 PM on 11 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
The MWP has been acknowledged as the last period of globally warm temperatures (not just NH as claimed above). The global temperature anomalies are similar to today, although some differences may exist. Whether that period was warmer than today is still open to debate, as different proxies present different results. The comparisons are important as they can reveal changes which have occurred in the past century (not just 30 years) with those that have occurred in the past. In order to show that today's warming is unprecedented, it has be larger in magnititude and more rapid than previous episodes. In addition to the questionable sea surface temperatures, other work has shown significant warming in Russia compared to Figure 1 above. http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/29/81/68/PDF/cpd-3-1-2007.pdf http://www.baikalscience.org/?cat=12 Russia also experienced the MWP at different times, earlier in the West, later in the east, with temperatures warmer than the present by 1C or more. http://www.pages-igbp.org/products/abstracts/solomina.pdfResponse:[DB] "The MWP has been acknowledged as the last period of globally warm temperatures"
Citation? As it stands, a nonsensical statement.
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ranyl at 18:56 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
Ranyl - how do you make do without a fridge? Have no dairy or meat and can't drink alcohol and live in moderate climate, so not really a problem. Keep stuff in larder like room on the north side of the house with no window. Most things keep for a reasonable while especially in winter. An evaporation fridge would keep things cool as well, and in hot climates evaporative cooling was traditionally utilised and a fridge is a big power user. -
Mark Harrigan at 18:41 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
To actually thoughtful #90. I'm disappointed in your response - not so deserving of your moniker. You have made an accusation to me of being a stealth denier which i have rejected and not really considered the point I am trying to make. I really don't think you have read or understood my post. I am not denying the potential of human imagination - indeed I hope we can rely on it. But I want to argue and progress from reality not wishful thinking Your wishful thinking appeal is selective on based on emotionalism. I could point out that people have imaginged travelling to the stars and communing with the dead for centuries but it hasn't happened yet. All the successful human endeavours you point to (flight and going to the moon) were based on sound evidence, data and experimentation, as well as imagination. Not simply wishful thinking appeals to what we "want" to happen (Einsteins achievement is not a valid comparison - though it too was based on the above) So yes, I agree we need that imagination but I am simply pointing out that we need to use real evidence to argue the case for renewables. The sort of appeals you make works with the already converted but won't win over the general populace who are vulnerbale to arguments from the "dark side" and are all too ready to ridicule any claims that we make for renewables that cannot be supported. I prefer to work from what we know can be done and progress from there (I think if you examine the actual history of the scientific achievements you reference you will find that that was how they were done) -
Rob Honeycutt at 18:34 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
quokka... That link didn't work for me. It may be the link or my being in China. Not sure. -
Tom Curtis at 18:01 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
Paul D, how about a straight forward solar hot water system instead - or are only hair shirts green enough? -
Paul D at 17:51 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
How about a solar shower?? Designed for camping and military use, but can be used in the summer as an alternative to the usual powered shower. -
Rob Painting at 16:52 PM on 11 July 2011The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
Alec - If you have some better way of comparing the MWP with modern-day temperatures I'm all ears. I considered the point you raise when writing the article, but I just wanted to see what you had to add, before answering. -
Doug Mackie at 14:05 PM on 11 July 2011OA not OK part 4: The f-word: pH
Oh, all right (prodded by co-author)....... umm ok thanks (OK stop prodding. There I said it. It's your fault for leaving responding to the grouchy one. Pollyanna I ain't. What? Oh for goodness sake. All right. All right.) Thank you for helping (Better?) -
muoncounter at 13:42 PM on 11 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Severe weather, indeed. July 5 Phoenix dust storm in pictures and with some meager NWS analysis.Response:[DB] Welcome back; you're late.
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RW1 at 13:42 PM on 11 July 2011The Last Interglacial Part Two - Why was it so warm?
What was the previous interglacial globally average incident solar radiation? -
scaddenp at 13:33 PM on 11 July 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
I've been thinking pretty hard about the question of mitigation policies for libertarians. Scratch a skeptic and you tend to find a right-wing/conservative. Furthermore, I haven't found any libertarians that are not somewhere on the not-happening/not-us/not-bad spectrum. While I guess that its possible that right-wing genes somehow provides a better understanding of climate physics than climate scientists have, it seems more likely to me that a clash with political values inhibits a proper evaluation. Some of this might be simply a conservative resentment of a changing world but I am hypothesising that for many/most? the first inkling of global warming comes from hearing about an unacceptable proposed solution. If it is better to reduce CO2 emissions rather than adapt, then we need effective proposals that don't offend these values. I have found very few libertarians even prepared to think about it. Cudoes to Eric here and to others who have taken up the challenge in email over the past couple of years. I am taking right-libertarians political theory in a nutshell to be: The right to individual liberty of action providing it does not infringe on the rights of other rights-respecting citizens.Individual responsibility for the consequences of these actions. Government is as minimal as possible with roles of protection from external aggression, maintenence of legal system to enforce contracts, and such police as needed to protect citizens from rights violation by theft, fraud or force. The solutions to climate change most acceptable to this group are ones that also promote the libertarian agenda. Eric's suggestion of insurance regulating safety and privatization of roads with appropriate cost are examples. Unfortunately, these mostly dont seem to very effective solutions - they depend on somehow getting alternative costs below coal without raises coal price to be effective. What if you cant? The problem is that the costs of producing power from coal dont include external and future costs but there is no easy mechanism that I can think of for adding in uncertain future costs. What does the theory do in these cases? "Cap and trade" attempts to add these cost to carbon but it is an anathema to the Right for which it is designed to appease. Killing subsidies on fossil fuels should be a no-brainer - in fact killing all industry subsidies and returning the savings as reduced taxes should be more than acceptable since subsidies imply coercive support of government-favoured industries. To an outsider, it seems US big business simply bribe their representative with campaign funds to get tax support in return. It might be asking a bit much for Cato Institute to be waving this banner but I would regard it as litmus test as to whether its truly is designed to promote libertarian values or merely a political tool to protect some very rich interests. A bigger sticking point however is likely to be that subsidy removal is proposed by a Democrat president. Government action is portrayed as theft of the rights of fossil fuel property holders but is their situation any different from asbestos property holders? Our knowledge of the toxicity has improved in both cases and the response of the industry has been rather similar. As far as I can see, libertarian theory struggles with issues where the free action of many individual results in a rights violation. Examples would be passive smoking, pollution control - and climate change. How can a citizen with say, a lung condition, sue those who choose to smoke in public, or not buy emission-control for their vehicles? No one individual is at fault and no mechanism exists for rights protection that I can see. It is interesting to see libertarians responding with denial on passive smoking too. Government action is permitted by the right in the case of external aggression so it seems self-preservation values override those of liberty. This I think explains the ghoulish preoccupation by AGW-activists with ice-melt and extreme weather. They are trying to trigger a self-preservation response. But suppose your country wont suffer too badly under the effects of climate change and the really bad stuff happens elsewhere? Does rights-respecting only apply to citizens of your country? Your state even? If not, then how is this rights-conflict arbitrated? In an ideal world, it should be possible for a person to choose to take no mitigating action in belief that science is wrong, provided that person is also willing to take their share of the responsibility for liabilities for adaption and compensation. However, I cant think of any mechanism by which this could work for a multi-generational problem like climate change. People object to paying for the "sins of their fathers" (though the same people appear to be quite happy to pass the costs to another generation). This is a tough problem. We are born with a desire to do what we like and instinct for self-preservation,whereas respecting others rights and taking responsibility are learned behaviours. To me, libertarianism seems a theory for the empty frontier rather than a heavily populated planet, but I would really like followers of the theory to face up to the problems above with some workable solutions instead of denying such problems exist. Solutions that would get whole-hearted support are needed and for that I think a value other than liberty/preservation needs to be invoked. -
Pete Dunkelberg at 12:52 PM on 11 July 2011The Last Interglacial Part Two - Why was it so warm?
How warm was it? Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change:Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.
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Steve L at 12:18 PM on 11 July 2011The Last Interglacial Part Two - Why was it so warm?
Okay, I can buy that. And applied to the interglacial before that, it makes some sense -- the interglacial begins after a peak in 65N insolation (but well after the obliquity peak, so the peak isn't as strong as the one that initiated the Eemian). The interglacial occurs despite a minimum in 65N insolation that shortly follows about 235 kya. So, let's say that (due to 'inertia') the minimum at 235 kya brings on the next glacial period (initiated about 222 kya). The question is, Why doesn't the maximum 65N insolation at about 220 kya initiate another interglacial sometime shortly thereafter? I suspect the answer is feedbacks, but I would like to be sure I understand it. -
Same Ordinary Fool at 12:12 PM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
More Radical................Whoever compiles the master list of all possibilities (Has any website started doing it?) might helpfully group the more radical,in terms of comfort and/or convenience, separately. So they can be more easily scanned, and passed over, by those looking for a reasonable lifestyle. Yet, they are there for the willing. Who...............Obviously, living solo is a big advantage. Then the inevitable irritations with the lifestyle won't complicate a living-together relationship. An enjoyment of camping is an asset,so one can realize that what is gained can be worth the discomfort. When...............Having other places to spend one's time, and access to a gym's shower facilities, is an obvious advantage. When in college some already do this to escape their communal living situations. The available possibilities will sometimes be limited by how long someone plans to live in that area. As with other types of customized dream homes, the decision to settle down comes first. Other...............There may be other reasons in addition to the reduction in carbon emissions. One might be that it may make possible the occupation of that cabin in the woods, or of an otherwise desirable apartment that has substandard utilities. Or, there may be a good use for the money that's saved. Example...............Turning off the 40 gallon hot water heater year round has become more practicable with the availibility of body wash for a shower. Soap up with cold water + body wash + heated water in a tall bicycle water bottle. Lathering up with hand soap while you're wet and cold in an unheated bathroom is just too prolonged and too grim. Rinse Off with cold water + heated water in four 1/2 gallon plastic milk bottles. Will also have to add boiling water to the water used for washing one's hair at the sink, and soaking the dirty dishes. -
Doug Mackie at 12:10 PM on 11 July 2011OA not OK part 4: The f-word: pH
Yes Byron, it did come across as petty pedantry. Nevertheless changes made. Looking forward to future comments addressing the conceptual science. -
Mathew Varidel at 10:57 AM on 11 July 2011OA not OK part 4: The f-word: pH
Thanks anyway, Ed. I actually read that wiki but for some reason I couldn't get my head around it. Personally, I found this to be better explanation: http://erkki.kennesaw.edu/genchem3/ge00001.htm -
Bern at 10:48 AM on 11 July 2011SkS Weekly Digest #6
Look forward to the upcoming articles. And I really like that 'toon. It explains the consequences of the short-term profit mentality quite well. -
Byron Smith at 10:17 AM on 11 July 2011OA not OK part 4: The f-word: pH
Yes, I realise this, but giving the 26% figure in the grab-box just provides more ammunition for deniers who want to say "ha, it's not 30%". With only a few minor changes to the post, it can be made clear that we're really talking about something closer to 29%. 1. A difference of 0.11 pH units corresponds to a 29% increase in the concentration of H3O+. 2. Switch 26 to 29 in the grab box. 3. Replace 8.2 with 8.25 and 8.1 with 8.14 a few times in the final box. Given that you're asking people to cut and paste an equation into a spreadsheet, increasing the accuracy by one decimal place isn't a difficult ask. I realise this is pretty minor nit-picking. Perhaps I should have started by saying, "thank you for this series!" (which I really do mean, by the way. I am very much looking forward to the rest of it. Sorry if I've come across as narky.) -
KR at 10:07 AM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD - I have to agree with Tom Curtis. The LAGI assumptions of 20% efficiency, 2000 hours per year (just under 50% of sunlight hours, by my calculations) are quite reasonable for desert areas, and not out of line. Off-equator sites would have to be proportionally larger, which the LAGI images do not show, but with 20-30% or so by my calculations. You have repeatedly used UK power levels and cloudiness to argue against desert solar - which is wholly appropriate. The security issue you raised is one that we've dealt with for decades, with most countries having between 90 (France) and 10-11 (Ireland) days of gasoline on hand - I dare say that we can handle that with electricity too, especially if individual countries have some generation capacity on hand. You keep returning to UK, and UK only - that's less than 0.2% the land area of the Earth - you are focusing on local issues rather than global. -
Byron Smith at 10:06 AM on 11 July 2011SkS Weekly Digest #6
Final link of news bites is broken. It ought to go here. -
Rob Painting at 09:50 AM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
Paul D @ 21 - I did, at one point, consider building an outdoor chiller, or coolstore, for our cheese (my wife makes all our cheese) but my wife wasn't too keen on having to traipse outside to bathe the cheese in brine, which is part of the cheese-making process we employ. The plan was similar to your simple evaporative cooler. The idea was to use a home-built ram pump to bring the water up to the chiller location and let the evaporative process act as the coolant. The overflow would then flow down into our garden water tanks, and overflow from that was to directed back into the stream. -
Tom Curtis at 09:36 AM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @231: LAGI gives the conversion efficiency (2) as 0.2 and then determines the energy density (1) by factoring in only 2000 hours in the year (28%) as providing direct sunlight and assuming the collectors are angled to the sun to maintain maximum efficiency throughout the day. Both are very reasonable assumptions (indeed very conservative) for North African deserts and similar locations. -
Tom Curtis at 09:31 AM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @236 read 230 (and David Mackay) again. David Mackay quotes 100 Watt insolation per meter squared laid flat in England. 100*0.15 efficiency times 1 million meters squared per km squared = 15 million Watts collected (not incident, but collected) energy at 15% efficiency by a km squared of pv or csp laid flat in England. If you could (per impossible) find 1.5 million square km in England on which to collect solar power, that would collect the 23 terawatts averaged over a year. Alec Cowan @238, nobody is trying to find impossibly large amounts of land in England. I am making a rhetorical point that BBD is assuming the relative efficiency in solar power in England for his calculations of that efficiency in North Africa. -
quokka at 09:08 AM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
#84 Rob Honeycutt Per capita CO2 emissions from China are now equal to those from a number of lower emitting Western nations. Can't find the reference at the moment but they are now equal to those of France. The trend is pretty clear up to 2007: Per Capita CO2 Emissions Of course the CO2 footprint of many Chinese individuals will be way below the national per capita figure. -
Paul D at 08:05 AM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
I guess in this crazy world. If you say something was socialist, you must be socialist for saying so. That's the sad state of affairs. No imagination beyond accepted and standardised politics. For your info BBD: Electricity nationalisation - 1947: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_Act_1947 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Electricity_Authority Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm pretty sure they remained nationalised until the 1990s. Personally I can't change history and make post war Britain 'capitalist'. It wasn't. Rationing continued well into the 1950s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Midlands_Electricity#History Quote from wikipedia: "In many towns, the (nationalised electricity) board opened showrooms, to provide customer service facilities (such as paying bills), as well as demonstrating, and supplying the latest electrical goods to customers. The post-war period was one of incredible growth for the electricity industry." -
Alec Cowan at 07:39 AM on 11 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Who is trying to find 1,550,000 or even 500,000 km2 of land in England? -
Paul D at 07:39 AM on 11 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
BBD@100 "WRT the UK discussion, I cannot engage seriously with your profoundly anti-capitalist interpretation of post-war energy policy. You disavow this above, but present all change post-war as negative. Progress = negative = anti-capitalist world view." What a ridiculous statement. Both I and another commenter have stated that post war UK reconstruction was largely socialism driven, that is in all the history books. You assume that because I make comments here that contradict you, that I must be anti-capitalist. That is a perversion. You can not assume that someone is bound by old political ideologies. Also progress is not defined by one ideology or one set of events. Indeed progress is difficult to define given what we know today. If the long term result is human deprivation due to climate change, then your definition of progress in post war UK is not progress.
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