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Comments 79701 to 79750:

79701. Paul D at 20:15 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       BBD: "The post-war enconomy in the industrialised West has benefitted (and will continue to benefit) from an influx of women freed from time-intensive domestic labour by what you call 'gadgets'." Actually you are just stating that sexism exists and that men are incapable of doing house work! Although domestic gadgets are credited as allowing women to work. In the UK women did all types of jobs during WWII including flying bombers and fighters from factories to airfields. So the issue wasn't about gadgets, it was about cultural attitudes to work and place in society. What you have stated is that instead of dealing with the problem, technology has been used to mask it.
79702. Rob Painting at 20:15 PM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       Badger - hyperlink provided. From Peru - "However, the only climate proxies for SST anomalies in the Tropical Pacific that I could find were in the following paper about the Central Pacific" The supplementary information for Mann (2009) is here. It details the CFR method outlined by pauls, and note the data and codes provided. From Peru-" From what proxies did Mann obtained proxies that record the entire 1000 past years and from where obtained data about the entire NINO3 area, a zone where there are no islands?" There are few proxies for the tropical Pacific, Palmyra coral, Galapagos coral, and Californian and South American marine sediments, but given the locations of the two indexes are you proposing some new, as yet unobserved, flavour of ENSO? There was a bit of scientific 'how's your father' over whether the Pacific SST's were warm or cold up until recent years, but the general concensus now is that a La Nina-like background state prevailed in the MWP. El Nino and La Nina still happened, but the background state was cool like La Nina. A cool tropical eastern-central Pacific (La Nina-like) validates the paleoclimate proxies for rainfall elsewhere on Earth during the MWP, in contrast to a warm eastern-central Pacific (El Nino-like) which doesn't. For example: the centuries-long megadrought, of the (now) southern United States, during most of the MWP is only observed in climate modeling when the tropical Pacific is in a cool La Nina-like background state. Combining the La Nina-like Pacific with the warm Atlantic (evidenced by the strong positive NAO) matches the distribution of drought and wet areas in North America during the MWP. Suggest you have a read of Graham (2010) provided in the post. The point of this post was to highlight that the Mann (2009) proxy data are consistent with climate model simulations, and modern-day observations of global circulations. The La Nina drying of the southern US is a feature still observed today. From Peru-"I would like more info, both for having a better answer to the "skeptic" arguments about the MWP" May pay to ask them why North American glaciers were advancing during the MWP too. I can point you to a few other recent studies if you're interested. From Peru-"and for living in Peru, where the ENSO climate oscillation is the dominant force in the regional climate and weather behaviour" Long-term, most models indicate an El Nino-like background state for the tropical Pacific. Again that doesn't mean more El Nino's, just the background warming resembles the El Nino state. This will be bad for the Peruvian fishing industry if it occurs, and Amazonian drought too.
79703. Paul D at 20:09 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       BBD in comment 65 you stated that my statement was: "Chicken and egg reasoning" Yet in comment 69 you state: "So we have a post-war UK energy policy which installs baseload." That contradicts your chicken and egg statement. I take your second comment as an admission that you comment in 65 is incorrect.
79704. Paul D at 20:04 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       BBD: "So we have a post-war UK energy policy which installs baseload. The benefit is improved public amenity (electric cookers, washing machines, dryers, heaters etc)." That is a distortion of the reality and a distortion of the truth. People had cookers and fires or heaters, using coal and gas or wood. Government policy was interested in economics to improve income (taxes) of the socialist state, that was the primary reason that the power stations were built. In order to soak up the surplus electricity high power consumer goods were promoted. Mostly electric goods replaced existing items. Electric heaters were promoted to either replace coal, gas or wood, or to supplement those. eg. An electric kettle replaced a stove top kettle. Although I remember many people continued to use stove top kettles well into the 1970s and 1980s because they were cheaper. During WWII people (UK) used coal, gas and electric heating. The government issued leaflets that showed people how to save energy for all types of heating. The point is post war policy was to push people into using more electricity in preference to the other sources. That changed later when North Sea Gas became available, that created new promotions to change again. None of this was driven by the customer. The infrastructure was built first, then the public were inundated with pressures (carrots) to change.
79705. ranyl at 19:39 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       Have a very low carbon print and as said it is more fun than hardship. However all of the above says that individual action isn't enough, however if your communicating environmental change and not doing anything then no one will listen for a second and your words will undermine any confidience people have in the whole issue. Carbon pricing will most likely merely disadvantage those who are have nots even more. What is needed is an inherent understanding that not using carbon is the most self preserving thing to do for an individual, a street, a town, a nation, the world, for then people might act out of deep motivation rather than forced leglisation which if the war on drugs is any barometer will totaly fail. For the record, Haven't got a car, don't fly, grow as much veg and fruit as possible, have solar hot water, collect rain water, have no fridge, use no toxic chemicals, only buy organic local or organic fair trade, dry all washing naturally, use eco-balls for washing, buy all clothes from charity, cook of log range in winter and have induction low energy hob, shower less frequently, harvest water for flushing toilet, use as little water as possible, have fully thermally renvoated my house with hemp and lime insulating render which is carbon negative, insulated loft with recycled paper insulation, electricity is from renewable supplier, only used 800-900Kwh a year for the last 5years, heat our home with logs and only use 3m3 a year, follow a none meat, none GM, none soya, none palm oil, and dairy free diet, get some food from part of community supported agriculture scheme, reuse and then recycle everything we can and am looking to purchase land to convert for woodland and food production. Have no chance of having any other useful renewables, little wind, nowhere near enough sun to justify PV with the very serious environmental impacts making PV has and no chance of hydro. Life quality has improved throughout changing as we used to be frequent flyers, have 2 cars and shopped for what we wanted, it has taken only 5-6year to change and in overall assessment it has been challenging but interesting and fun.
79706. Ed Davies at 19:33 PM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 4: The f-word: pH
       Typo: your first given value for the Avogadro constant swaps the last two digits of the mantissa (22) and the exponent (23) so is nearly ten times too small.
79707. RW1 at 16:32 PM on 10 July 2011
       Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
       And still no one can explain why GHG ‘forcing’ will be amplified by over 400% when solar forcing is only amplified by about 60%. Yet they vehemently object to a negative feedback of about 40% from Lindzen and Choi. I think the peer review process is broken.
79708. Doug Mackie at 16:17 PM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
       Thanks Patrick, but my question to you was: How much carbonates do you think would need to be added and how would you do this? Since you were not able to do these calculations I shall point you to the first of several similar papers (that would have been easy to find)that presents such calculations: In 2008 Danny Harvey at U. Toronto published a paper ( abstract) that does the calculations. Harvey L.D.D. (2008) Mitigating the atmospheric CO2 increase and ocean acidification by adding limestone powder to upwelling regions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, C04028, 2008. The conclusion:

       Geographically optimal application of 4 billion t of CaCO3 a−1 (0.48 Gt C a−1) could induce absorption of atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 600 Mt CO2 a−1 after 50 years, 900 Mt CO2 a−1 after 100 years, and 1050 Mt CO2 a−1 after 200 years.

       That is, a fleet of tankers dumping 4 billion tons of powdered limestone per year could be sucking up 600 million tons of CO₂ per year after 50 years. A slight problem is that current emissions are about 30,000 million tons of CO₂. Yes, current emissions are 50x the amount that would be being sequestered by 2100 – and your guess is as good as mine for what emissions will be in 2100. Every little bit helps? Perhaps. But mining, crushing and transporting the limestone might be a little carbon intensive. Harvey is not seriously proposing this as a solution. He goes through those calculations too, as he says to show that:

       The calculations presented here serve to illustrate the enormity of the task of even partially reversing the acidification of the oceans that is yet to occur under even the most optimistic scenarios concerning reductions in CO2 emissions. The task is not only enormous but would need to continue for several 100 years. These calculations also underline the fact that in the absence of stringent reductions in CO2 emissions, efforts to reduce adverse impacts on ocean chemistry will be ineffective.

       Harvey goes on to say that if emissions have dropped to zero by 2100:

       then application of limestone at a rate of 4 Gt a_1 (0.48 Gt C a_1) beginning in 2020 serves to restore about 20% of the difference between the minimum pH and preindustrial pH by 2200 and restores about 40% of the difference by 2500, with the same benefits for the degree of supersaturation with respect to calcite.

       Yes quite. If emissions have dropped to zero by 2100.
79709. Daniel Bailey at 14:48 PM on 10 July 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       Here's that paper on ponded ice: From Itoh et al 2011:

       "Sea-ice melting processes were inferred from in situ sea-ice and ocean condition data obtained in the Arctic in summer 2006 and 2007. The relationship between ice concentration observed by on-board ice watches and water temperature showed negative correlations. This implies that as ice concentration decreases, the upper ocean becomes warmer due to greater absorption of solar radiation into open water, which promotes ice melting. However, heating of surface water is significant even in regions that were almost completely ice-covered, suggesting that transmitted solar radiation through the ice is also effective at melting sea ice. A simplified ice–upper-ocean coupled model was applied to examine the effect of heat input from open water, thick ice and thin ice. The ponded thin ice is estimated to transmit approximately three times more solar radiation than ponded thick ice. Model results suggest that transmission of solar radiation through ponded ice amplified the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, particularly in thin ice regions. Recently, the extent of old and thick multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean has been rapidly reduced. As a result, heat input to the upper ocean through the ice is enhanced and ice melt is further accelerated."

       Emphasis added.
79710. Buzzook at 13:16 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       East coast NSW Australia. Old post-WWII, uninsulated weatherboard house. So far this (southern) winter I have not used any form of artificial heating at all. Zero. Inside temperature has been as low as 9degC during daytime, but rising to as much as 20degC in sunroom/office. Guess where I am right now? :) I have simply dressed appropriately for the conditions, and warmed ME rather than the AIR around me. Two layers all over, inner layer being thermal underwear (only put on after sundown); fleece pullover and fleece jacket on top; thick socks and warm boots on feet, cap or beanie to prevent heat loss through head. Blanket over legs while resting or watching the giggle box. Saves 2-4kW/day; up to 480kW per quarter; 1.8 tonnesCO2/annum or up to Au$320 saved off bill. Shower every second or third day, merely changing underclothes in the interim days (unless performing hard physical labour). Saves around 23kL per annum of potable water; reduces gas consumption (instantaneous) to less than 1 x 45kg cylinder (2300MJ) per annum, saving (at 68gCO2/MJ nat gas) around 300 kgCO2/annum. Flush loo twice daily - "if it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down". Saves 9L/flush or around 50L/day, say 18kL/annum of potable water. Use remote-switched 'standby-power-savers' to minimise unecessary power consumption from computers and entertainment devices, otherwise all but fridge off at wall. All lighting low consumption fluoros or CFLs, single lamp per room. At night, only one light on at a time. Swapped (very) old and inefficient fridge + separate freezer for modern 3-star 406kW/annum fridge/freezer unit. Saved around 3kW/day, or 1100kW/annum, or 1.1 tonnesCO2/annum, or Au$240/annum off the bills. But with 2kW grid-tie solar PV earning 60c/kW gross feed-in-tariff this saving further generated $657/annum in revenue, paying off the fridge in less than two years. Total PV generation (aver 9kW/day/annum) is approx 3200kW/annum, or Au$1920 in revenue (till July 1 2017, anyway). Current surplus/credit is $280 owed to me by the retailer. Buying gas from the same retailer effectively means that gas is free as well, as the 'solar credit' is taken off the TOTAL bill, which includes any gas purchased. Average daily consumption under 4.5kW. Compared to national average of around 15kW/day for a similar household, thus saving (at 950gCO2/kW from coal-fired gen) around 3.6 tonnes of CO2 per annum. Live regional, commute local, average around 200km/week, down from 1000km/wk when living in metro Sydney and commuting to full time job, saving about 5 tonnes of CO2/annum. I fly seldom, but if I have to (or choose to for holidays) I offset each flight. Only one flight O/S in past 6 years, and that only to New Zealand. One internal flight SYD-HOB in past 6 years. Grow some food items, but don't have space to do more, so buy from local growers. Bottle, preserve or make jam from any surplus fruit and veg I can get hold of. My mulberry conserve is famous among friends and family. :) Educate others via volunteer capacity as 'Sustainability Consultant' on Council and TAFE courses in local region. Future plans include: - install insulation in roof space and under floors - installation of wood-burning stove (windfall wood is available for local collection from forestry operations, making any wood burned effectively oxygen producing and CO2 negative, due to replanting by forestry which over-offsets losses [CSIRO figures]. - increasing size of solar PV array (by 2017 will need to increase by at least 100% in order to offset losses from end of feed-in tariff and compensate for increase in grid power price) - install underground rainwater harvesting tanks (currently not cost effective based on existing low consumption and high cost of installation; desirable but not essential) - plant more food-producing trees and better utilise on-site growing areas (currently lawn) - install composting toilet (unofficially, as Council will not allow it, but will enable recycling of on-site produced human waste as fertilizer for gardens) - eat more vegetarian food and less meat to further reduce impact on environment and climate. And, like John Russell (above) have found it thoroughly enjoyable. I'm pleased to be able to do my bit but, frankly, have little hope for the majority of global population. Self-interest and comfort 'rule' I'm afraid, but every little bit - and every example - helps to win the 'hearts and minds'.
79711. John Hartz at 12:53 PM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       Not everyone reading this article will know what the "NCAR model" is. Please insert explanatory info into the text or in a footnote.
79712. Marcus at 12:27 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       @BBD. Paul D is correct. Here in Australia our base-load generates produce large amounts of waste electricity-especially at night-& so the electricity industry has come up with some ingenious ways to flog off that extra capacity-which have in turn driven the development of our economy. For example, they created the whole "off-peak electric" system to flog off excess power at night-mostly for the purpose of keeping water hot-even though on demand systems are clearly a more cost effective way of providing hot water. The Industrial Sector also gets a per unit discount on its electricity prices the more electricity it uses-which has led to our industries being quite energy intensive compared to those in other economies. Two classic cases of the tail wagging the dog.
79713. Marcus at 12:22 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       Mark Harrigan. Australia's total demand for electricity is around 210TWh of electricity per year. Germany, a Country that does *not* enjoy the enormous benefits of our ample sunshine, our massive coastline or our huge land area, is able to generate 100TWh of electricity from renewable sources (not including large hydro power). They have done this *without* causing large increases in the average family electricity bill. Australia, meanwhile, still only generates around 5TWh of electricity from renewable sources. So the question is-why the massive discrepancy? In fact, Australia has one of the lowest levels of Renewable Energy Generation in the OECD-something we should be appalled by given the fact that much of the ground-breaking advances in the field were made by Australian Researchers-most of whom had to go overseas due to a lack of support. As to your claims that the price of renewable energy remains "stubbornly high", that's just a load of rubbish. Photovoltaic Cells have dropped in price from around $25 per watt to less than $4 per watt in the space of less than 30 years-whilst simultaneously improving *average* efficiency from less than 5% to more than 20% in the that same space of time-all on a fraction of the government support that either coal or nuclear power have enjoyed. The same is true of all the other renewable energy technologies-they have shown a massive & significant decline in price in a few short decades, whilst simultaneously boosting their efficiency. Who knows how much more they would have improved if governments had supported them as much as they support *mature* technologies.
79714. Marcus at 12:12 PM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       Quokka-even those who spruik Nuclear Power admit that tripling capacity will-at best-reduce global CO2 emissions by no more than 12%-yet then we'll be in a situation where known Uranium Reserves will last less than 50 years. Sure we might find some more-but how much land will need to get overturned in order to both extract that uranium & store the resulting waste by-products of the entire nuclear fuel cycle? Meanwhile, it is entirely possible to store sufficient Wind Power to achieve base-load power output, if you'd ever bothered to do research into various storage mechanisms. Also, some Wind Turbines have Capacity Factors as high as 40% *without* storage-& this is expected to improve even more over time. So it really seems to me, Quokka, that you're ignoring all the inconvenient facts about significant improvements in *all* renewable energy technologies-so that you can keep spruiking the false hope offered to us by Nuclear Power.
79715. Patrick 027 at 12:08 PM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
       ... I think a representative net reaction would be (I'm not sure but CaSiO3 might be wollastonite) CaSiO3(s) + CO2(aq) = SiO2(s) + CaCO3(aq) where adding CaCO3(aq) to the ocean, can react with CO2(aq) to form bicarbonate ions (well, actually I guess this would just as easily happen when CaCO3(aq) first forms in solution during chemical weathering), allowing the ocean (or whatever water is involved, which may head to the ocean) to hold more CO2; that CO2 uptake will be given back to the air when CaCO3 precipitates, but the net reaction would be as above except the CaCO3(aq) would be CaCO3(s). In reality I think there are a number of silicate minerals that can be in the reactant side and a number that can be on the product side.
79716. Patrick 027 at 11:52 AM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
       Re 11 Doug Mackie - thanks, first, I'm aware that dissolution of carbonate minerals will provide carbonate ions to react with CO2 to form bicarbonate and thus allow the water to take up more CO2; and also, that ultimately (when things are in equilibrium in the time average)geologic emissions from CO2 are balanced by geologic sequestration, the inorganic portion being the formation of carbonate minerals, which can occur without release of CO2 from the water to the air when cations are supplied by silicate weathering rather than carbonate dissolution. There are some ideas people have for accelerating either carbonate dissolution (using carbonates found on land, I think) or geologic sequestration to help mitigate climate change and ocean acidification. Some involve putting CO2 into rock formations to form carbonate minerals right where the silicates are. I was wondering about the idea of crushing either carbonates or silicates and distributing it in the ocean. And whether only Ca silicates would be effective. (Of course there could be other environmental effects depending on where and how this would be done, and I'm not one of those who would abandon efforts to reduce emissions just because this option might exist.) (I'm also curious about why MgCO3 (if it did form) or CaMg(CO3)2 formed more or less in different geologic times but that may be too far off-topic?)
79717. Rob Honeycutt at 11:32 AM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       I've been going through a process of collecting papers on the MWP and now have a list of about 300 papers. I'm still in the early process of reading them but already what is becoming obvious to me is that the MWP moved around quite a bit. It's Medieval only in the very loosest sense of the definition. Warming in any given region only lasted a couple hundred years and the warming seems heterogeneous. You might have warming in one region from 700-900 and warming in another region from 1100-1300, and other regions you might see no warming at all. The other notable issue seems to be the sparsity of southern hemisphere proxies, so most multi-proxy reconstructions are heavily weighted to the northern hemisphere which should bias reconstructions toward warming. There is still lots of new research coming out all the time. Already in 2010-11 a plethora of new papers have hit the journals. My general sense is that, as more data comes to light the hockey stick is going to start to straighten back out to something more resembling Mann's 99 work. And that is going to be a real stick in the craw of the denier set.
79718. pauls at 11:31 AM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       From Peru, Mann 2009 uses a Climate Field Reconstruction (CFR) method. This method involves analysing proxies and instrumental records for spatio-temporal covariance patterns during periods when sufficient data is available, then applying those patterns to build past maps when and where there is no physical data. SSTs at any given gridpoint would be reconstructed by reference to proxies (land or ocean, near or far) with an established covariance relationship.
79719. KR at 11:18 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       BBD Not in order, but: "You acknowledge the security concern over interconnectors, but then reiterate that North Africa is an 'excellent location' for solar plant. Contradictory." No, I acknowledged that you had raised a security concern, but pointed out that similar concerns apply to fossil fuels now. And that we seem to manage despite such concerns. I therefore consider this a bit overstated. I had thought my statements on that clear. "The disappointing performance of UK wind generation is evidence that the global potential of wind is comprehensively overstated. The UK is supposed to have the best wind potential in Europe." Generation possibility does have to be balanced against land available. That said, I would like to see your data on the wind capacities. The recent oft-quoted Muir report has issues, such as concentrating on a couple of Scottish sites, where high winds often shut down generation altogether by exceeding turbine capacities. Looking at the Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics (DUKES), covering all power supplies in the UK, in particular Chapter 7: Renewable sources of energy, shows a somewhat different picture, noting that wind input to the power grid grew 31% between 2008 and 2009, with a metered total of 9,300 GWh supplied by on and offshore wind in 2009. --- The LAGI solar footprint estimate does appear quite overstated - but this does not change the facts that (a) significant power is available, and (b) while taking up a lot of land, there is indeed sufficient land available. I will note that discussing LAGI estimates using UK weather and insolation is not an accurate comparison! I would consider sources like the European Joint Research Commission a better resource, although they prefer to present yearly totals rather than peak power. Land use is a political issue, not a technical one - and I dare say that both renewables and nuclear face assorted political issues that can only be addressed through the public and our (ahem) enlightened leaders.
79720. Steve L at 11:01 AM on 10 July 2011
       The Last Interglacial Part Two - Why was it so warm?
       Darnit, every time I think I get it, something else comes up. I'm looking at obliquity, eccentricity, precession. When those things conspire you see a maximum in the resulting total insolation at 65 N, and this and feedbacks yields the last interglacial. Right. Problematically, the previous interglacial before that (at about 240 years bp), occurs during a time when the orbital parameters combine to yield a minimum insolation at 65 N.
79721. DLB at 10:51 AM on 10 July 2011
       Great Barrier Reef Part 2: Climate Change Impacts
       Rob P. @ (9) you mention that bleaching occurs at temps above 1 - 4C normal. It would be interesting to see what local reef temps were in those bleached reefs in 1998 and subsequent years to see if there is any field correlation with this claim. When I was in the Capricorn Group it was late June and there was bleaching. (I must correct that I was there around 2000 not 2010 as stated earlier).
79722. Doug Mackie at 09:55 AM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
       I am sorry Patrick but I do not follow what you are saying. What do you mean by "the pH effect"? When you write about adding carbonates or silicates, do you mean humans adding these things over and above natural geochemical processes? I think, but please clarify, that you mean adding cations so that various carbonate minerals form. Is that what you mean? If so, how do you think that this would reduce CO₂ in the ocean? If this did serve to reduce CO₂ (and I suggest you write a few chemical equations to help decide about that), then in what form would you add the cations and how much do you think would need to be added to the ocean?
79723. BBD at 09:46 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       KR What we agree on: - I live in the UK, and have said so several times - The UK cannot significantly displace fossil fuels with renewables (but is supposed to have the largest wind potential in Europe - yes?). - The SW US has high insolation - It's not nuclear vs renewables; this is a false dichotomy - Nuclear inertia will be offset - slightly - by fast-build renewables Where we differ: - The disappointing performance of UK wind generation is evidence that the global potential of wind is comprehensively overstated. The UK is supposed to have the best wind potential in Europe. [If anyone dares crack a funny about this, I will invoke The Moderator ;-)] - Corrected estimates of CSP footprint (recently upthread) will be of concern in Texas - Your use of the incorrect Treehugger/LAGI solar footprint estimate - You acknowledge the security concern over interconnectors, but then reiterate that North Africa is an 'excellent location' for solar plant. Contradictory.
79724. sidd at 09:41 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       I think there are huge gains to be made in efficiency. After fixing a 10 year old washer twice and the dryer twice, I replace with new models that cut water use by factor of 3 and electric use by factor of 4. I estimate (in midwest and NE USA) just doing this in industrial, agricultural and commercial settings is a big win, and i am personally familiar with large commercial laundries, and large farm operations converting to solar hot water preheat and efficient lighting with even better results than my puny washer and dryer. In the case of one large chicken operation, going to solar hotwater preheat saved the business. Snowfall blocked the propane trucks from getting through, electric line faulted with fallen trees, but the large 30 kilogallon tank of hot water and enough sun kept the birds and animals alive till they bulldozed access.
79725. John Russell at 09:05 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       So here's the list of things I've been doing for the last 10 years now. In no particular order. 1) Installed a ground-source heat pump. 2) Bought and turned over 90 acres of poor quality farm land to indigenous woodland (50,000 trees planted). 3) Totally stopped flying. 4) Put in extensive insulation to high standards. 5) Installed 11sq metres of solar thermal panels. 6) Installed heat-recovery ventilation (ie using a heat exchanger). 7) Installed a wood-burning stove. 8) Installed 4kW of PV panels. 9) Installed a rain water collection system. 10) Built a network of raised veg beds and a glass house so we can grow our own food. 11) Built a wood shed for storing and drying firewood. 12) Changed my car to the smallest and most fuel efficient one we can manage with (it has averaged 65mpg since I bought it). 13) Brought up my sons to use nothing but bicycle transport. 14) When changing them, ensured that all my household goods are as energy-efficient as possible (cfl/led lighting, LED TV, etc. -- and no tumble dryers!). Basically in everything we've done we've gone for the low carbon, low energy option. I've also demonstrated to family, friends and neighbours how to go green -- and that it matters. A number of them are now being influenced by my approach. I've also become a local councillor so I can extend my sphere of influence. Is it enough? No, we've got to go much further -- but that is only possible if we do it together. It's the collective mind set that has to change and we can do our bit to set a good example. I suppose, finally, I should add that doing all this has been really satisfying and enjoyable.
79726. KR at 09:01 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       BBD - You keep returning to the case of the UK. I suspect that this is where you live? I would agree with MacKay (and yes, I've read the book) that the UK, due to siting, weather, and overall population levels, is not suitable for internal generation of fully renewable power - nuclear is going to be a required part of the mix there. But please - keep in mind that the UK is not the world. That's a very small portion of it, in fact - only 0.16% of world land area. You've returned to UK only statements repeatedly, which quite frankly in discussing world CO2 production is either cherry picking or rather nearsighted. The Southwestern US, North Africa, and many other regions are excellent locations for solar power. And there are many locations (Northern Europe, much of the western US, western China, etc.) where wind power is a reasonable proposition. I do understand your security concerns about power transmission, which you mentioned earlier, although in the fossil fuel economy importation has many of the same concerns. Ireland has ~11 days of gasoline, numerous other countries are in a similar position. So that's not an issue unique to renewables located in reasonable generation locations. And it's not nuclear versus renewables - that's a false dichotomy. But I believe Tom Curtis is quite correct on ramp-up speeds - beginning right now on both renewable and nuclear power expansion would be an excellent idea, with the renewables (faster incremental construction) giving more time for both technologies to pick up pace and begin replacing coal power.
79727. Camburn at 08:27 AM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       From Peru: I noticed the same thing and I am sure Mr. Painting will address this issue.
79728. Mark-US at 08:15 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       Al, and all..... Personal? Political? I've read a lot of Gandhi's writings on that subject. He felt that whereas soldiers have to train in weapons and physical fitness, it was even more essential for anyone doing his form of 'nonviolence' to train up their heart/mind/spirit/instincts/discipline et cetera. I embrace that view. If folks skip that step, at best they can hope to change the daily flavor of trouble. To really really solve the root cause of the problem, the answers are extremely personal on a daily basis, and occasionally political on a broader one. Some years ago I was at a bike protest against Gulf War #1, and during the open mic someone asked the large crowd for a show of hands who had driven their bikes on their car to the rally. More than half the hands went up, and I concluded the event was a lifestyle opportunity, not Gandhian direct action. Here's a couple favorites: http://www.mkgandhi.org/swarajya/coverpage.htm http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN0807059099&id=rNXCuWx-9soC&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Story+of+My+Experiments+with+TruthThe#v=onepage&q&f=false
79729. BBD at 08:12 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       Paul D So we have a post-war UK energy policy which installs baseload. The benefit is improved public amenity (electric cookers, washing machines, dryers, heaters etc). You appear to suggest (though I may misunderstand you) that this process was somehow wrong. Do you argue that all washing machines and other labour-saving devices should be forgone? If so, what about the impact on domestic labour? Not to be coy, I mean on women. The post-war enconomy in the industrialised West has benefitted (and will continue to benefit) from an influx of women freed from time-intensive domestic labour by what you call 'gadgets'. I'm interested in your views on this.
79730. From Peru at 07:45 AM on 10 July 2011
       The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures
       There is one thing about the Mann 2009 paper that I could not find: Where is the evidence about past sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific? The paper show that during the so-called MWP the Tropical Pacific was dominated by a persistent La Niña anomaly. However, the only climate proxies for SST anomalies in the Tropical Pacific that I could find were in the following paper about the Central Pacific: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium That shows an incomplete record of the SST anomalies in the central Pacific (NINO 3.4 area), showing that at least during the periods covered by the Palmyra Islands coral record, the NINO 3.4 zone was dominated by La Niña. But in the Mann 2009 paper (from where the above map was taken) show a persistent La Niña over the entire MWP and also shows the NINO 3 area as a zone with reconstructed cool SST anomalies. From what proxies did Mann obtained proxies that record the entire 1000 past years and from where obtained data about the entire NINO3 area, a zone where there are no islands? I searched for studies showing this, and I just found the Palmyra Islands (incomplete) record for just the NINO3.4 area linked above. I would like more info, both for having a better answer to the "skeptic" arguments about the MWP and for living in Peru, where the ENSO climate oscillation is the dominant force in the regional climate and weather behaviour (after all, the name "El Niño" is a Peruvian one, referring to the Holy Baby (Jesus Christ) Christmas holiday that is when typically an ENSO event peaks)
79731. AL at 07:43 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       Paul D, We will just disagree on how effective change happens i guess. My own feeling is that it is not one or the other. An effective resistance movement has to contain elements of both. Currently the mainstream environmental movement has really failed because it it has focused primarily on trying to convince people to make personal change. (see Al Gore movie.) The other issue i take with relying only on personal change and educating others is that it is not clear how much time we have to actually change the direction of this culture. In addition, we are also up against corporate funding of disinformation that has been so successful in crafting public opinion to accept the status-quo and deny there is even a problem. Our job is much harder and we have way less power to influence. It is a very dire situation. BTW, i'm not in America, and direct action is a global tradition that spans the globe through all of history, and has often (not always) been successful in making positive change. It's not at all clear to me why the killing of the biosphere should not warrant the same sort of response. Cheers!
79732. Paul D at 07:39 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       Mark Harrigan: "Second the reality for industry is a LOT different. They are far more dependent on reliable supply 24/7 and this is where the economic impact lies." Actually it isn't always straight forward. Look up 'Constraint Management' Some businesses in the UK have contracts in which they can be cut off for short periods in return for a discount. This is in case there are local load balancing issues. Businesses may have to shut down for a day or so or provide backup generation.
79733. Eric (skeptic) at 07:25 AM on 10 July 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Albatross, looking at the link in 321, and comparing months in the lowest graphic, the severe reports (total) peak in May. Looking at each separately, the hail and tornadoes peak in May, but the wind peaks in July (at almost the same value as June). The distribution of reports moves north with each passing month. That would be due to a variety of factors, jets moving north, cold air disappearing to the north, warm air aloft moving north, etc. The link to CC will come at the edges of that pattern. I would except an earlier severe weather season further south. Also I would expect the migration of severe weather to the north to start sooner in the season. That website doesn't appear to show trends, but I also do not expect such trends for quite a few more years due to the vagaries of variability especially in the U.S. where the Pacific ocean has such a large effect.
79734. Paul D at 07:23 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       BBD: "Chicken and egg reasoning" Hardly. As I stated in 66, who is going to buy electrical consumer goods if there is no infrastructure? The infrastructure has to be put in place first and then the promotion and advertising begins, to get people to buy cookers and washing machines to plug in.
79735. Paul D at 07:15 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       BBD: "Your source for this?" During the 1940s and 1950s there was a state programme to expand the electricity generation capacity and grid system. Because the power stations were designed to run constantly, when there were dips in demand, it caused load balancing problems. So the national electricity 'boards' set up shops and showrooms across the UK to sell washing machines, cookers and heaters and other consumer gadgets in order to justify the building programme and fill the load troughs. http://www.twixtaireandcalder.org.uk/WakefieldCMS/Pages/TAandC/ImageView.aspx?source=l01268&thumbnail=False Also logically you can only sell the gadgets once the infrastructure is in place, not the other way around. No one is going to buy an electric cooker first, if they don't have a house wired for electricity. So the massive investment drove energy supply first, then the energy companies promote the convenience of using it.
79736. Norman at 07:14 AM on 10 July 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Albatross @ 321 I thank you much for these tools.
79737. Paul D at 06:43 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       AL@13 "I have, however, seen people take direct action to win labor rights..." Most of that has not been because of direct action, most of it has been because of a change in public opinion through education and better understanding. A lot of direct action has been taken on other issues and largely failed, which is why change in attitudes is more important. Maybe direct action can help, but it is just as likely generate negative opinions which are an embarrassment to a wider audience. Also the things you are talking about have nothing at all to do with environmental issues. In the UK we never had segregation in modern times, in fact most Brits were pretty appalled by American race attitudes during WWII. I don't think you should assume American political problems today are duplicated world wide. If Americans feel they need to take direct action that is their problem and a symptom of American politics today.
79738. Patrick 027 at 06:38 AM on 10 July 2011
       OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
       Maybe this will come up in future posts ... I was wondering about the pH effect (and related potential for CO2 uptake) that other cations have (Mg+2, K+, Na+, etc.) - and regarding the idea of mitigating pH changes and enhancing oceanic uptake of CO2, how would adding either carbonates or silicates with Mg, K, or Na compare to adding Ca (I know the difference between silicates and carbonates is that you can add the dissolved cations from the silicates and actually remove CO2 from the air and form a carbonate mineral (if conditions are right - this may be only common with Ca as I understand it) whereas adding carbonate to enhance CO2 uptake requires that additional substance to remain in solution).
79739. BBD at 06:36 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by dana1981
       Paul D You say:

       Yes but industry as it stands is a product of the energy supply, not the other way around. You only perceive it to be the other way around because you have been born into a society that has been dependent on the system for many decades.

       - Chicken and egg reasoning - Are you suggesting industrial economies must be dismantled? - If so, What policy mechanisms should be employed? - How do you envisage a politically surviable delivery of same?

       FYI large scale power stations were built and then (at least in the UK) the energy companies needed consumer products that would soak up the spare capacity.

       Your source for this?
79740. AL at 06:09 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       Paul D, I have not seen anybody take action to move us beyond the left/right political spectrum. I have, however, seen people take direct action to win labor rights, to win human rights, to win minority rights, to desegregate buses and schools, to defeat NAZI's, to defeat the british, etc... these actions have been successful. I think we agree on the point that there is certainly more information available to people, and there is certainly more and more science we can rely on to help us understand and educate others. But from what i can tell so far this has resulted only in a small amount of people making personal change and corporations using "green washing" to convince us to consume our way to a healthy planet. (an absurd notion, IMO). Meanwhile, emissions are higher than ever and habitat destruction continues unabated.
79741. Paul D at 05:24 AM on 10 July 2011
       Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
       AL@9 "People have been doing the personal change thing for decades and it has not stopped the problem from getting worse, way worse." People have been taking action in an attempt to change politics for decades and you still have the same left and right political ideologies manipulating peoples lives! There is also no guarantee that anyone can stop the problem from getting worse. The only thing that you can do is educate people and do your best and hope that it is enough. Education in this context is quite broad. The reality is (and I contradict you here) that quite a lot has been been done, more than many people would have thought possible 5 or 10 years ago. I remember a few years ago in the UK that even eco-friendly people didn't know how to work out carbon footprints or emissions of cars and other products. Now statistics are available from manufacturers and government every year.
79742. CBDunkerson at 05:23 AM on 10 July 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       In any case, the 'Nonsense On Ice' link Sphaerica provided in #197 above includes several photos showing the Skate having broken through the ice, people standing on the ice next to the sub, et cetera... all on exactly the same date (March 17, 1959) when it was supposedly in 'open water' at the North Pole.
79743. Albatross at 04:52 AM on 10 July 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman, And play with this too.
79744. Albatross at 04:50 AM on 10 July 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman, Play with this.
79745. JMurphy at 04:24 AM on 10 July 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       That first USS Skate photo has also been discussed at Arctic Sea-Ice Blog - Patrick Lockerby joins in there too. In fact, Neven (whose site it is) uses the picture as his avatar. Basically, it has been used by so-called skeptics, to claim that the Arctic has been ice-free lots of times in the past. I first saw it used on WUWT (no surprise there) but some of the comments on WUWT (from real sceptics, of course) about the photo show that it cannot be proven to be at the place and time often suggested, i.e. March 17, 1959. Patrick Lockerby shows that also. In fact, there is no official original for that photo - the link at NavSource.org (where the copy is held) goes to a web-hosting service called Tripod.com.
       Response:

       [DB] Also correct.  The discussion begins in that thread here.

79746. BBD at 04:21 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       And this is relevant how?
79747. Philippe Chantreau at 03:56 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       "To achieve 16TW would require 1,600,000km*2" Which, incidentally, is quite a bit less than the current global sea ice area negative anomaly.
79748. Bob Lacatena at 03:56 AM on 10 July 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       194, DB (inline), I did find this link: Nonsense On Ice. Is that the one you're talking about?
       Moderator Response: [DB] Yes. See also JMurphy's comment below.
79749. BBD at 03:52 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       No response to #211 (212). Tom Curtis #201:

       Using the expected efficiencies of the Andasol solar thermal power plant in Spain, the land required to generate 16 terrawatts of power is 400,000 square kilometers. The Andasol plant can generate power for 20 out of every 24 hours.

       Earlier I said: Based on the standard estimate of 15W/m*2 for desert sited CSP: 10,000km*2 = 150GW 400,000km*2 = 6TW And that's assuming that there is absolutely nothing but CSP in every single one of those 400,000km*2. I should have been far clearer on the last point. Real-world plant power density is lower than assumed above. Vaclav Smil writes:

       Europe’s first commercial solar tower, PS (Planta Solar) 10, completed by Abengoa Solar in Sanlúcar la Mayor in 2007, is rated at 11 MWp. With annual generation of 24.3 GWh (87.5 TJ, 2.77 MW), its capacity factor is 25%. Its heliostats occupy 74,880 m2 (624 x 120 m2), and the entire site claims about 65ha; the facility’s power density is thus about 37 W/m2 factoring in the area taken up by the heliostats alone, and a bit more than 4 W/m2 if the entire area is considered. PS20 (completed in 2009) is nearly twice the size (20 MWp; 48.6 GWh or 175 TJ/year at average power of 5.55 MW and capacity factor of nearly 28%). Its mirrors occupy 150,600 m2 and hence the project’s heliostat power density is, at 36.85 W/m2, identical to that of PS10 but, with its entire site covering about 90 ha, its overall power density is higher at about 6 W/m2. Bright Source Energy’s proposed Ivanpah CSP in San Bernardino, CA should have an eventual rating of 1.3 GWp and it is expected to generate 1.08 TWh (3.88 PJ) a year and deliver on the average 123.3 MW with a capacity factor of just 9.5%. Heliostat area should be 229.6 ha and the entire site claim is 1645 ha. This implies power densities of 53.75 W/m2 for the heliostats and 7.5 W/m2 for the entire site. Again, no stunning improvements of these rates are expected any time soon and hence it is safe to conclude that optimally located CSP plants will operate with power densities of 35-55 W/m2 of their large heliostat fields and with rates no higher than 10 W/m2 of their entire site area.

       So, again but with 10W/m*2: 10,000km*2 = 100GW 400,000km*2 = 4TW To achieve 16TW would require 1,600,000km*2.
79750. BBD at 03:45 AM on 10 July 2011
       A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
       Mark Harrigan #216 My doubts about renewables hitting 20% of actual generation globally are based on the underwhelming performance of wind in the UK. It is supposed to be the 'jewel in our renewables crown'. It isn't exactly shining. Back to another link posted earlier:

       2010 Renewables Target Missed by Large Margin The Renewable Energy Foundation (REF) today published an Information Note on the performance of the UK renewables sector in 2010 based on analysis of new DECC and Ofgem data (see www.ref.org.uk). The work shows that the 2010 target for renewable electricity has been missed by a large margin, and confirms longstanding doubts as to the feasibility of this target, and the still more ambitious target for 2020. The key findings are: • The UK failed to reach its 10% renewable electricity target for 2010, producing only 6.5% of electricity from renewable sources, in spite of a subsidy to renewable generators amounting to approximately £5 billion in the period 2002 to 2010, and £1.1 billion in 2010. • Onshore wind Load Factor in 2010 fell to 21%, as opposed to 27% in 2009, while offshore fared better declining from 30% in 2009 to 29% in 2010. • Although low wind in 2010 accounts for some part of the target shortfall, it is clear that the target would have been missed by a large margin even if wind speeds had exceeded the highest annual average in the last 10 years. • The substantial variation in annual on-shore wind farm load factors is significant for project economics, particularly Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and future cost of capital. • Planning delays do not appear to have been responsible for the missed target, with large capacities of wind farms, both on and offshore, consented but unbuilt.* • The failure to meet the 2010 target confirms doubts as to the UK’s ability to reach the 2020 EU Renewable Energy Directive target for 15% of Final Energy Consumption, a level requiring at least 30% of UK electricity to be generated from renewable sources.

       It might surprise Tom but I agree with his argument about speed and the inertia of nuclear and its consequences in ppmv. But renewables cannot compete with nuclear over decades. This discussion has been had already. I am not revisiting it again. You could take the view - as I do - that TC is essentially anti-nuclear and pro-renewables. And that his argument above has a strong tactical purpose: to push nuclear off the table. However reasonable it may sound on a first reading.

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