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CBDunkerson at 00:32 AM on 9 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Ranyl, sure livestock cause land use changes... but so do crops. And on methane... sure, cows and other ruminants release some of their carbon as methane, but that methane oxidizes right back to CO2 in the atmosphere within a few years. Thus, unless we're concerned that methane is having a major impact before it breaks down to CO2 (which seems unlikely given that we stabilized atmospheric methane levels back in the 1990s) it doesn't seem to make much sense. And if methane IS the concern then first order of business ought to be pushing for people to stop eating rice. -
Paul D at 00:30 AM on 9 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
I haven't owned a car for about 12 or more years. I think if I had, my health would be a lot worse than it is now. I haven't looked at the details recently Rob@35 , but I don't think you are correct about electric vehicles compared to ICE vehicles. Electric vehicles only come into their own when they are charged by low carbon electricity sources. Otherwise they are about equal to ICE vehicles (based on working out the grammes of CO2 per passenger km or mile). If you know differently then I would like to see your sources. Especially for the case of coal, emissions are so high per kwh that the greater efficiencies in an EV are not really enough to compensate. So you get similar emissions per km or mile. This would be different with low carbon electricity. -
Rob Honeycutt at 00:27 AM on 9 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
CDB @ 33... I should be better informed on this topic having been a veggie for the past 25 years but I believe the argument is that the land use and energy intensity for farming meat is much greater. You have to farm the food to feed the animals that are then harvested for food. By cutting out the meat you're essentially cutting out the "middle man." Honestly, it's probably an overly simplified concept because you can't just turn all grazing land into crop land. My personal opinion is that it's likely the human race will end up getting forced into a position of being more or less vegetarian as available crop lands dry out and world population continues to increase toward 9 billion. That's gonna be a lot of mouthes to feed. -
KR at 00:22 AM on 9 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD - With equal respect, this topic has been discussed on multiple threads here and elsewhere, and I have to disagree with you. (That site you referenced, incidentally, is essentially unreadable due to the lack of contrast between foreground and background. Peter Lang, who's referenced, has posted here before, had these issues pointed out, argued a lot, and then left.) The carbon footprint backup for wind, for example, has been presented as a conflict (too much CO2), without properly considering an interconnected grid covering distances >250km. Support over larger distances averages out the weather considerably, while single-site analysis is in many respects a near sighted and unreasonable comparison. Much of the solar focus has been on material limits to PV and the backups required there, whereas concentrated thermal solar power is lower tech, requires less restricted materials, and lends itself quite naturally to 24 hour+ on-site thermal backups, with an operational availability around 80% for single sites already demonstrated (without fossil fuel backup). Again, a distributed network with overcapacity is very important. The scale/size required, another frequent objection, is not out of range - see Surface Area Required to Power the Whole World With Solar and Wind Power, shown on Treehugger (horrible website name, 'tho).
Now, I fully agree that nuclear should be part of the mix; preferably (IMO) using breeder reactors and on-site reprocessing so that fuel utilization is ~90% rather than ~5% as in once-through reactors.
But what I see, repeatedly, in this and similar discussions is consistent knocking of renewable resources by what (in my opinion) appear to be nuclear supporters who consider it an either/or proposition - attacking renewables to defend nuclear. It's not! And these objections to renewables on baseload supply really do not hold up.
~25% of new power generating capacity over the last decade has been in the form of renewable sources (from Celsias). Nuclear only accounted for 2% over that period - personally I would like to see both of those numbers rise significantly. But right now renewables are replacing coal an order of magnitude faster than nuclear is. It seems a significant number of people think renewables are a reasonable proposition.
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BBD at 00:08 AM on 9 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
I should have said that I joined this thread with a five-part comment here. -
Rob Honeycutt at 23:57 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
By IPCC estimates aviation contributes about 3.5% of anthropogenic warming. This is significant but it's by far not where the big impacts come in. As I mentioned before, at least aviation is an industry that is aggressively addressing the issue. What we do individually is definitely very important, so reducing your air travel is a step in the right direction. But the big benefits come from what we do collectively to address the BIG contributing sectors, like auto-truck transportation and buildings, is where we make the BIG changes in reducing global warming. Re: Mark @ 23... I can't link to it right now but there is a good series on youtube called "Fully Charged" about electric vehicles. I think it's in the very first video where he addresses the idea that EV's are just as bad as ICE vehicles depending on the source of the electricity. That whole meme is completely wrong. If you compare well to wheel efficiencies for both electrics beat ICE vehicles by a mile even charged on coal generated electricity. Add to this the fact that batteries are set to become 3-5X more efficient this decade you can't hardly go wrong with an EV. -
ranyl at 23:39 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Farming cows and lifestock generally changes th elandscape a little! http://www.arthurrankcentre.org.uk/projects/rusource_briefings/rus07/464.pdf And cows turn CO2 into methane. http://jas.fass.org/content/73/8/2483.abstract -
CBDunkerson at 23:10 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Heraclitus wrote: "Going vegetarian (although not so effective if you choose processed products) or at least choosing pork and chicken over beef and lamb can make a real difference." This has always seemed like a logical inconsistency to me. Since we are talking about ways to reduce our carbon footprint it'd be good to get it sorted out. The reason this seems inconsistent to me is that in previous discussions a very persuasive argument has been put forward that greenhouse gas emissions from humans (that is, our actual bodies rather than our technologies) are not a concern because all the carbon we emit INTO the atmosphere was recently taken OUT of the atmosphere... in short, we recycle. To me this seems very logical... a human being cannot possibly emit a single atom of carbon which didn't come from some source of food they ate... which in turn ultimately got that carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, if this is true, would it not also apply to cows and other animals? So how exactly do cows put more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere than came out of it to feed them? -
Bob Lacatena at 23:03 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Albatross, Question: Does an expansion/growth of the Hadley Cells have an impact on this? Does it move certain weather patterns further north (or south in the SH) with the edges of the growing cells? Does this in turn potentially result in a greater temperature gradient, or the delivery of more moisture to a location with a more severe gradient, or the movement of the relevant weather patterns to a more or less geographically fertile region for severe storm generation? -
Tor B at 22:49 PM on 8 July 2011OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
I came across the phrase “hydrogen carbonate (formerly bicarbonate)” on a blog I frequent. Can you say a word about the nomenclature you are choosing to use? -
OPatrick at 22:44 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Watching Jeremy Rifkin (via Adelady's Climate Crock link in #19) he makes the point that the second biggest contribution to global warming is meat, particularly beef, production. Going vegetarian (although not so effective if you choose processed products) or at least choosing pork and chicken over beef and lamb can make a real difference. Flying can't be shrugged off though. If you fly regularly it's almost certain the biggest realistic change you can make in your own life is to stop flying. Even if biofuels become viable this is still energy being used that could be replacing fossil fuels elsewhere. For many this is unacceptable and it may be a long term goal, as people realise that moving abroad is going to lead to a dilemma they don't want to face. The strange thing is we are more connected than ever before and should have less need to fly. My parents lived abroad in the '60s and 70's when even 'phone calls home were prohibitively expensive. Yet they survived happily returning home only once in 4 years. Now we have instant communications in so many forms, yet people living abroad seem to feel the need to return home two or three times a year. -
mike williams at 22:34 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
http://judithcurry.com/2011/07/05/the-ipccs-alteration-of-forster-gregorys-model-independent-climate-sensitivity-results/ Ouch..qucik delete this.. HahahahaModerator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Link only messages are a contavention of the comments policy. Feel free to post links, but post them on an appropriate thread, and add a substantive comment explaining the relevance of the link to the topic of the thread. The last line is rather childish, this is not the correct blog for such behaviour. Please restrict yourself to rational, grown-up discussion of the science. Link activated; this issue is clearly off-topic, so please take any discussion to a more appropriate thread, or better still to Currys blog. -
BBD at 21:46 PM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
KR With respect, everything you say has been examined and discounted during the course of this thread. I know long threads are hard work, but hard work has gone into making this one so long. Please read the whole thing, then comment on specifics with reference to earlier discussion. As just one example among many, your statement that North Africa is 'a lovely place to put solar power generators' has been examined critically above and found severely wanting. I welcome serious discussion, but not endless repetition. WRT you assertions in paragraphs 1, 2 and final, please read the critique of J&D linked repeatedly in this thread. Like many commenters here you are apparently unconsciously confusing two very different things: - the claim that renewables might one day possibly make a contribution of >30% to the global energy mix - whether renewables can displace coal from the global energy mix as fast or faster than nuclear between now and 2050 -
les at 21:46 PM on 8 July 2011OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
No better post to remind people: If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate. great series. -
Steve Brown at 21:43 PM on 8 July 2011OA not OK part 3: Wherever I lay my shell, that's my home
I'm thoroughly enjoying this series. The explanation of such a complex topic beats the stuffy marine biochemistry textbook I had to use. With all this reference to saturation, do I detect a segue to a future post on Carbonate Compensation Depths? They were my favourite :-/ -
CBDunkerson at 21:06 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Dave123, you must be a big guy. I'm 6' 3" and never had any trouble with my 2004 Prius or the 2010 I recently traded it in for. I have to slide the seats WAY back, but then I can actually tilt the seat-back up for back support. On various comments above about distributed grid technology... here in New Jersey the local power company has been putting some very neat solar panels on every telephone/electrical pole with good exposure. They already own the poles so there are no zoning or permitting issues. The panels have a clamp and screws mechanism designed so that someone in a bucket truck can pull up to a utility pole and install one in about twenty minutes (including diagnostics to verify it is working and set at the optimal alignment). What's really cool is that they have converters built in so that they can feed the power directly into the local grid AND they all have 'smart grid' metering and communications... so by installing them all over the state PSE&G is effectively turning their existing 'dumb grid' into a smart grid where they have data on power flow and demand for every wire with a connected panel. Most of the power generated by the panels is also used right there on the same street where it is generated, reducing transmission losses to effectively nil. Thus far they've put up about half of the 200,000 they are planning to install in the state. There are also transparent glass windows which generate solar power. If every window, utility pole, street light, parking lot, and building roof in the world were generating smart grid connected solar power we'd have far more electricity than we currently use... without having to 'set aside' any land at all to generate it. We just need to add solar generating capabilities to infrastructure we already have in place... a process which has already begun in many places and seems to be accelerating. -
Dave123 at 20:33 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Dana, Of course 2004.... get old enough and 1 decade blurs into another. As for fitting in, in order to fit into a 2004 Prius i had to tilt the seat back so far that I had no back support at all. More recent models may be different. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 19:49 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
There are many other reasons to reduce fossil fuel consumption ...” I would add that these are “adequate grounds” to do absolutely everything possible to minimize energy use of fossil fuels. 1. Mortality from coal mining in China and other poor countries (which currently dominate the mining of coal in the world) is the thousands of victims (!), hundreds of thousands of people are cripples, suffer from inhaling coal dust, etc.. 2. Surface mines leave behind "lunar landscape" - millions of acres of without of soil. 3. Most of the exhaust still is not filtered. BC - aerosol - from over India, Africa (in China is getting better) is now - in the atmosphere around the world - bigger than before, when dominated by European, American and Japanese BC. 4. One "leak" from the tanker or oil platform is doing - usually - more destruction to the environment than the global waste water volume penetrating the seas and oceans. 5. Contributors of fossil fuels monopolize production and sales, use fossil fuels to political conditionality - countries without fossil fuels. 6. I live in a country dependent on coal and gas - and see how it is limited - inhibits the development of science, the development of new technologies. Carbon Lobby torpedoes any change in favor of biofuels. In many ways, Poland is - in this way - yet in the XIX century ... Whether we will be ready to prepare for the inevitable "peak oil"? Associate energy savings only with the theory of AGW is very dangerous ... But I think the biggest threat to reduce fossil fuel consumption for the development of alternative energy sources - is a way to "fight" with CO2 emissions in Europe adopted a new climate package. Faith of "Eurocracy" that large corporations - on the auctions - do not buy up (perhaps all) of CO2 emission rights, is "an admirable." In addition, large corporations will earn on geo-sequestration - are really as the only appropriate technologies and, of course, the place for CO2 storage - and even more addictive us from fossil fuels ... P.S. I commutes to work by car on gas, warmed up my house, the water heats the photovoltaic cells, use light bulbs - and other electrical appliances - a class the most energy-efficient ... Why? For liquid fuels, coal, electricity in Poland are relatively very expensive ... -
MarkR at 19:31 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
#20 quokka: solar resources in a lot of the world are more than 100% bigger than in the UK. In parts of the Mojave you get 2,200 kWh/m^2 over a year compared with 750-900 across most of the UK. Some parts of Cornwall get 1,000, but that's rare. I find it remarkable that the UK is subsidising solar power. I mean, it's wonderful, I did my masters in a solar cell physics lab and it will be really important in the future. But the UK is a ridiculous place to put panels. -
JMurphy at 19:20 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
I sometimes get the feeling that some people seem to think that because some things are hard to do, we shouldn't or can't do them, or should fall-back on options which are not necessarily ones we would choose if we had a proper choice. Perhaps we need someone to take a lead, in the way John F Kennedy once did : We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon...we choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. -
ranyl at 18:58 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
"other than NOT using energy." MH post 1. Tend to agree, and need to add in biodiversity and nitrogen concerns on top of carbon ones. Where do batteries comes from? What are they mining for in the Congo? Do rubber tree plantations cause any problems? How much wildlife do cars and roads kill each year? Is the 6th mass extinction a concern? -
Dan Olner at 18:53 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Mark Harrigan: "it IS hard to make good decisions (other than using less) unless the price of carbon pollution is factored in (yes - we are in furious agreement on this - go the carbon tax!)" Exactly. Sometimes it seems taking any personal action is pointless without some carbon-costing mechanism to start changing behaviour through the market. To come back to flying: Dana, you didn't actually say, but do you fly? At the moment, I don't, simply because it cancels out anything else I'd attempt to do. For instance, four years ago I flew from the UK to Sydney and back, worked there for six months. That single flight was the equivalent of about a year's worth of driving, by my quick check. I suspect a lot of people still fly simply because they think it's necessary - especially academics. Can I ask who else in academia here has a position on flying? The problem is: if you exclude flying from your personal decisions on reducing carbon, doesn't that just make every other decision pointless? I'm not sure myself: I worry that not flying reduces demand, and we need the aviation industry to have a reason to innovate! Confused. Very confused. -
Mark Harrigan at 18:34 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Hi Dana @#2 Thanks for your reply - but I don't think your rebuttal of my points is comprehensive. I agree the whole prius vs hummer contrast is a bit ridiculous - but my point is that sometimes the comparison is not obvious. There are plenty of low emission car alternatives that do better than the prius (mostly diesel) and there is also lots of evidence that plug in hybrids and electric cars can actually be worse for emissions depending on the source of power. In other words it IS hard to make good decisions (other than using less) unless the price of carbon pollution is factored in (yes - we are in furious agreement on this - go the carbon tax!). I'm happy to move the discussion about the German nuclear stance to another thread but it IS evidence that a shift to more renewables is by no means easy. My claims of Solar PV are based on the recent productivy commission report. I understand there have been a number of challenges to this but the high level of subsidy HAS been an expensive way to offset carbon. So in terms of past decisions to install solar the cost HAS been way too high. Hopefully going forwards that will change. I'd much rather see Solar PV stand on it's own merits in the market - hopefully we will see that start to happen and if it can keep lowering it's cost curve, well and good. Finally - your link to the Diesendorf plan as proof that renewables can cut the mustard is not convincing. Don't get me wrong - I actually really like the plan and would love to see it trialled somewhere. But it is completely unproven and has been subject to much legitmate criticism. I have actuall posted extensively on`it in the last week or so over at that thread and have tried to be supportive but also realistic. The real issue seems to me just how much CO2 producing offset is needed and how practical that might be. So far the evidence based on the UK experience and what Germany plans to do are not promising. Happy to switch the dialogue about that to that thread but for now I maintain my view that wishful thinking plans, whilst encouraging, do not provide evidence that renewables can provide the entire answer. To pretend otherwise means we are guilty of a type of denialism that we often criticise those who do not accept the reality of AGW of committing. -
Albatross at 15:40 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Tom @289, Sorry for the delay in responding to your questions. Re "My question is, to what extent do these regions owe there intense thunderstorms to their peculiar geography, and to what extent to their mid-latitude location? Or perhaps better, are storms more frequent and intense in the tropics except under unusual geographical circumstances which promote thunderstorm and tornado formation?" Geography is important. For example, thunderstorms (including severe thunderstorms) in Canada, USA and Argentina are found in the lee (downwind side) of mountain ranges. In Argentina, they have a similar low-level barrier jet to the Great Plains low-level jet, with the South American low-level jet pulling down moisture from the Amazon (kinda like the forest equivalent of the Gulf of Mexico). Anyhow, this particular aspect is something that I am not very familiar with, at least not off the top of my head, and it is not really germane to the discussion here. Also, we are by and large in good agreement on the pertinent details concerning severe storms. Re "I continue to believe the lightning map gives a reasonable representation of thunderstorm frequency and intensity." I wholeheartedly agree about the frequency, intensity is more tricky, especially if by "intensity" one means tornadoes and severe hail. One has to be cautious when using lightning occurrence or frequency as a proxy for severe weather-- just because a region had a lot of lighting activity one month or year, does not necessarily imply that there was a higher incidence of severe thunderstorms (at least using the criteria for severe thunderstorms used by most met agencies/services). There is ongoing work in using various lightning metrics to infer storm severity, but the results so far concerning flash rate in a cell versus cell severity are not entirely clear. Goodman (1999) found evidence of jumps in flash rates preceding the occurrence of severe weather in Florida storms, others have found that the ratio of positive to negative cloud-to-ground flashes can be important discriminator for hailstorms (e.g., Liu et al. 2009). With many countries now having the luxury of sophisticated lightning detection networks that record the amperage, polarity etc. of the strikes, and some progress is being made. IMHO, lightning data is underutilized and much is still to be learned by looking at lightning data more closely. -
Tom Curtis at 15:15 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Norman @305:"My argument is that Global warming (as it is currently taking place, Poles are warming faster than Equator) would decrease the temperature gradient and lead to actually less severe weather patterns in the future. Tom Curtis and post 292 also seems to express this conclusion."
On the contrary. While I agreed with your premise I disagreed with your conclusion as being too simplistic. I am sorry if I was insufficiently clear. To be more specific, as the climate warms, we would expect tornadoes to arrive more frequently earlier in the spring. But earlier in the spring there is a greater north-south differential in temperature. Therefore, while the north-south differential in any given month will decline, with global warming the north-south temperature differential may actually be greater at the time when tornadoes form in the future. To illustrate this, consider average temperature differential between Austin and Chicago in degrees centigrade for the months March, April and May (Average temperature for Austin given in brackets): March 13.4 degrees C (16.1 degrees C) April 11.1 degrees C (19.5 degrees C) May 9.5 degrees C (24 degrees C) Now, suppose that as a result of global warming, conditions in the mid-west are such that, excluding the north-south temperature differential, conditions in April are as good for spawning tornadoes as they are currently in May. In that case, in order for the temperature differential to have decreased in those circumstances, temperatures in Chicago will have to have risen by 1.6 degrees C more than those in Austin. If temperature differential aside, conditions in March become as good as current conditions in April for spawning tornadoes, unless temperatures in Chicago have risen at least more than 2.3 degrees C those in Austin, the north-south temperature differential will be greater for those conditions than they are at present. That means if increased temperature is the only thing driving early tornado formation, temperatures in Chicago have to rise 67% faster than those in Austin for March, and 29% faster for April. Given that they are only separated by 12 degrees of Latitude, that is a big difference in change in temperature. And of course, temperature is not the only driver of tornadoes, with increased humidity also likely to result in earlier tornadoes. So even at the simplest plausible level of analysis (which will no doubt leave Albatross groaning) there is no basis for an assumption that global warming will decrease either the frequency or intensity of tornadoes, and several factors which suggest it will do the opposite. Further, detailed modelling shows that it is likely to increase the frequency, and possibly the intensity rather than the reverse. -
Albatross at 15:01 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Norman @305, Have you managed to identify the two myths being perpetuated on the hail Wikipedia page? You also continue to plow forward and ignore the body of science/evidence. You ignored your claim concerning the freezing level as demonstrated by the example I gave @ #269 and brought to your attention at #287. You ignore the fact that is the very same example for Kansas that I gave earlier there was no marked upper-level jet present (winds near the tropopause were <50 kts). Yet, there was giant hail observed at the surface. The jet can and does affect storm severity, but it is clearly not the silver bullet that you make it out to be. And you keep ignoring the findings made in the papers that I provided many posts ago now, as well as what Tom Curtis provided at #246, so I guess they bear repeating, again: Trapp et al. (2007) found that: "We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions." Note: They state that "Herein, the number of days on which CAPE × S06 [0-6 km vertical wind shear] locally exceeds an empirical threshold based on Brooks et al. (5) is denoted by NDSEV. Hence, NDSEV is used as a proxy to the number of days on which thunderstorms could form locally and potentially produce significant surface winds, hail, and/or tornadoes. " That is Trapp et al. (2007) determined that the number of days in which severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur is expected to increase despite the anticipated slight decrease in the 0-6 km wind shear. Del Genio et al. (2007, GRL) found that: "For the western United States, drying in the warmer climate reduces the frequency of lightning-producing storms that initiate forest fires, but the strongest storms occur 26% more often. For the central-eastern United States, stronger updrafts combined with weaker wind shear suggest little change in severe storm occurrence with warming, but the most severe storms occur more often." So your persistent claim that the upper-level jet will weaken which means fewer severe storms has been shown to be demonstrably wrong. Also, you are in essence arguing a strawman-- no one is claiming that the vertical wind shear will stay the same or increase, none is denying the paradigm which states that vertical wind shear is oftentimes important for severe thunderstorm formation. Yet, the decrease (not cessation or dramatic reduction) of vertical wind shear is compensated or perhaps even swamped by the increase in buoyancy, and the maximum updraft velocity is proportional to buoyancy. I have also pointed out previously that the role of low-level vertical wind shear is especially important for severe and tornado potential-- look up 0-3 km SRH, 0-3 km EHI etc., and that the Great Plains low-level jet (which is not a baroclinic jet) can provide ample low-level vertical wind shear, as well as the return flow of moisture in the boundary layer from the Gulf of Mexico. You say: "A decreasing temperature gradient (AGW theory conclusion that poles warm faster than equator) will decrease the strength of the jet stream (which is linked to severe storms), reduce steepness of lapse rate." On the first at count we all agree, but I am not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that the environmental lapse rate will decrease with AGW. Regardless, Trapp et al and other researchers' work would have taken any such reduction in the environmental lapse rate in their calculations of CAPE. So you are arguing another strawman there... You say, "If I do not satisfy your request for sound analysis rooted in physical processes then I believe it is time for me to discontinue posting until I can update my knowledge." As a scientist actively working in this particular field, my suggestion would be to encourage you to do so before posting further, and to please actually read the multitude of references provided to you here. Like others have noted I suspect that you are having trouble grasping the science on this topic because you have some mental blocks impeding your willingness to accept the science and what the science is suggesting. -
dana1981 at 14:13 PM on 8 July 2011Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Syun-Ichi Akasofu
Thanks Rob, well said. -
DSL at 13:58 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
I don't know, Norman. I'm a little mixed on this issue. I'm still learning the basics of atmospheric dynamics. Consider how warming might increase the height of the tropopause and also increase the allowable height of storm cells. Has any work been done on average storm height trend? I will point out that I recently experienced the strongest straight-line storm winds I've ever experienced (in 45 years) in Missouri: 60 mph sustained with 80 mph gusts in a ten mile-wide line. Widespread F1 damage, with spots of F2. No deaths, but 44 hours without power. Roughly 1 in 3 houses lost a tree in a community of 17k (I lost a medium silver maple, grumble). -
Norman at 13:35 PM on 8 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
DB @ 283 "Until you can mount a position of substance based on sound analysis and rooted in physical processes, which you have not yet demonstrated to date, others would be well advised to ignore your contrarian efforts to further derail this thread." You are an excellent moderator and I do understand your reasoning. Perhaps many climate scientists are of the thinking that Global warming will lead to more severe weather events in the future (intensity, duration and return frequency) and my view, without any formal training in climatology or having the knowledge of all the mathematics and equations used in climate models, must be supported by ample evidence before anyone should take the time to consider it. My argument is that Global warming (as it is currently taking place, Poles are warming faster than Equator) would decrease the temperature gradient and lead to actually less severe weather patterns in the future. Tom Curtis and post 292 also seems to express this conclusion. Some Climate models may be predicting and increase in severe weather because of Global warming. I will attempt with more data to demonstrate why I feel my view is valid and at least should be considered and that experts in the field are stating the same things I have been. If I do not satisfy your request for sound analysis rooted in physical processes then I believe it is time for me to discontinue posting until I can update my knowledge. I will not be performing the math on this post as others have already accomplished this. I will include some quotes that do support my view and see how it goes from there. Rather than use my own mind with its limited knowledge and resources on the topic I will let the experts do the talking. Strong Jet Stream and April Tornadoes. "The persistent presence of a strong jet stream over the South is the main culprit in why this April has been such a terrible month for tornadoes." From another article: " Jet Stream A region of increased wind speeds. Typically found above the largest horizontal temperature gradient. Stronger in the winter when the temperature gradients are the largest." Sourc article of above quote. A simple jet stream someone modeled based upon the tempertature gradient of the poles to the tropics, adjust temperature gradient to see what happens to wind speed. Simple model demonstrating temperature gradient and wind speed. "In addition to the seasonal effects directly caused by changes in solar radiation, there is also an important effect that is caused by the lag in heating and cooling of the atmosphere as a whole. The result is a predominance of cool air over warming land in the spring, and warm air over cooling surfaces in the fall. Thus, the steepest lapse rates frequently occur during the spring, whereas the strongest inversions occur during fall and early winter." Source article for above quote. "Steep lapse rates were found to be associated with most major tornado outbreaks by Craven (2000)." and "The superposition of steep lapse rates and low level moisture was shown to be ideal for severe storm/tornado formation." Source article for above quote. "4. Temperature Gradient Temperature gradient plays a very important role in the development of midlatitude cyclones. In fact, the reason why midlatitude storms are more frequent during the winter is partly because of the strong equator-pole temperature difference. A twolayer quasi-geostrophic baroclinic instability model, also known as the Phillips model (Vallis 2006, p. 271), is used to empirically evaluate the effect of temperature gradient on the propagation speed and growth rate." Source article for above quote. I have attempted to demonstrate, with numerous links, that my objection to the Conclusion: Global Warming=Climate Change=Increased extreme weather is based not on my own opinion but one that is shared by experts in the field. A decreasing temperature gradient (AGW theory conclusion that poles warm faster than equator) will decrease the strength of the jet stream (which is linked to severe storms), reduce steepness of lapse rate. As Eric the Red stated in post 294 "Global warming would increase the warm, moist air component, but decrease the cold, dry air. The net result is probably more rain, but less severe storms." -
adelady at 13:29 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
This item at Joe Romm's gives some cost/value comparisons for the USA. I'm a bit disappointed they didn't include tax/other concessions for the non-renewables, but I gather they were focusing on out of pocket costs to consumers rather than economic costs generally. -
barry1487 at 12:55 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
There is plenty of uncertainty in future costs, no matter who is making the estimates but all authoritative sources must be taken into account, not just the ones that support pre-conceived notions.
Are you referring to any sources supporting pre-conceived notions in particular? I must have missed whatever figures you are rebutting. -
quokka at 12:26 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Further on PV costs. Some UK Climate Change Committee estimates of cost of electricity from PV, nuclear and onshore wind for the next few decades. These are UK costs, so PV costs should be scaled downward for more suitable climates, perhaps by 30% or more and wind costs perhaps scaled upward for less suitable wind locations than the UK: 2011 Nuclear: 6-10 p/kWh On-Shore Wind: 8-9.5 p/Kwh PV: 31.5-46 p/kWh 2020 Nuclear: 5.5-10 p/kWh On-Shore Wind: 7.5-9 p/kWh PV: 17.5-33 p/kWh 2030 Nuclear: 5-10 p/kWh On-Shore Wind: 7-8.5 p/kWh PV: 11-25 p/kWh 2040 Nuclear: 4.5-9.5 p/kWh On-Shore Wind: 6.5-8 p/kWh PV: 8-19.5 p/kWh The Renewable Energy Review There is plenty of uncertainty in future costs, no matter who is making the estimates but all authoritative sources must be taken into account, not just the ones that support pre-conceived notions. -
adelady at 12:19 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
As an interesting aside to this discussion, climate crocks has a nifty entry. And the link wthin that to the India item is well worth following. As for the Moree PV installation, that's really a poke in the eye for all those people who sent the solar thermal proposal off to California. They could have had a better technology available now if they'd invested then. -
apiratelooksat50 at 12:16 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Oh, yeah. My electrical power sources are hydroelectric and nuclear. -
apiratelooksat50 at 12:16 PM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Call me a Skeptic or a Denier: it matters not to me. But, I can tell you what my family has done because it is the right thing to do for many reasons other than combating AGW. 1. I switched to a smaller 4WD SUV. I have to have 4WD because of my environmental consulting job I do. But, instead of a big pickup truck I'm driving a 2003 Nissan XTerra. That is as small as I can go and still do my job. 2. My wife is going to replace her 2004 Nissan Quest van with a smaller 4 door car in the next year. The kids are growing and we no longer need the space. 3. We compost, reduce, reuse and recycle in every case where possible. 4. We are switching over to fluorescent lighting from incandescent as light bulbs expire. 5. I succesfully lead my high school in a pilot environmental program (9 out of 256 public high schools). 6. I ride a bike, walk or run where possible. 7. My wife carpools to work (70 miles round trip) whenever possible. 8. We have replace our water heater and heat pump with more efficient units. I could go on, but I need to walk my dogs. The point is, I do all this stuff because it is the right thing to do regardless if AGW is a real looming catastrophe on one hand, or a ( -Snip- ) on the other.Moderator Response: (DB) Please refrain from putting ideology ahead of science. -
quokka at 11:43 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
#2 dana1981 You state that assertions about the high cost of PV are out of date. The best assessment of costs is always going to be actual project costs. Australia is to have a large (by solar standards) PV farm built at Moree as part of the government's "solar flagships" program. In is not unreasonable to assume that this project is "state of the art". Some reported details of the Moree project: Technology: One Axis Tracking PV Nameplate Capacity: 150 MW Capacity Factor: 30% Storage: none Completion: 2015 Project Cost: AUD $923 million If we notionally scale this up to the equivalent of 1GWe nuclear power we end up with a cost of ~$18 billion to generate about the same amount of electricity. Current nuclear build around the world range from about $1.7 billion per GWe (China, Sth Korea) to about $5 billion in Finland. The latter is for a first of a kind project (AREVA EPR) with substantial cost overruns. Likely levelized cost of electricity from the Moree project will be somewhere between $0.20 and $0.30 per kWh - maybe $0.25. Implement a similar project in eg northern Europe and the LCOE could well be $0.35 or more per kWh. The current average price of electricity on Australia's NEM (National Electricity Market) is about $0.07 per kWh. Further, the Moree PV plant will not supply reliable baseload electricity. Solar in Australia may be a reasonable match for daytime peaking demand, but that doesn't get rid of the coal burners. It is quite superficial to focus only on the cost of PV panels in an attempt to make some essentially political point about the cost of electricity produced by PV. Balance of plant costs are substantial. In the end, the only things that really count are actual projects costs and plant performance. It is these that both governments and investors will look at. -
Tom Curtis at 10:21 AM on 8 July 2011Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Syun-Ichi Akasofu
Eric the Red @30, it is not to early to see that his retrodicted figures for the years 1850 to 1880 are way to low. Nor is it to early to see that, as Jeff T @15 has noted, this prediction is based on a logically incoherent position. It is also not to early to early to note that, as expected, his prediction is not matching the actual temperature trends, although this will not become embarrassingly obvious for several years yet. -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:10 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Andy... Biofuels are coming along soon. One business jet manufacturer just made the first trans-oceanic flight on biofuel, flying one of its new (unmodified) jets to the Paris Airshow. We're in a similar circumstance with regards to family, only worse, being that my in-laws are in Chongqing China (where I'm post from right now). The aviation industry is being very proactive, as far as I can see, in attempting to address the challenges of climate change. There is a lot in development for making aircraft much more efficient. There are hybrid gas/electrics in the works for smaller aircraft. There are also pure electrics coming on line as well. My prediction is that the aviation industry is going to surprise everyone with what they accomplish in the coming decades. For auto transportation, we're hanging onto our 10 year old Camry until ready to switch over to a fully electric Tesla Model S. For those interested in looking at electric vehicles there's a series on Youtube called "Full Charged" where this guy test drives all the available EV and Hybrids out there. Very well done series. -
Rob Honeycutt at 09:35 AM on 8 July 2011Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Syun-Ichi Akasofu
The immediate thought that pops into my head over Akosofu's idea of a recovery from the LIA is... recovery to what? I mean, even based on his diagram the "recovery" would produce ~1C of warming by 2100. Is he suggesting that a recovery from the LIA will put us equal to the peak of the holocene? A recovery that would reverse the orbitally forced trend of the past 6000 years? That's one heck of a recovery! A highly motivated recovery if you ask me. It strikes me that Akosofu did not fully inform himself on the full breadth of climate science before producing this piece. I have to tell you though, this work is certainly making the rounds in the denial-o-sphere. I've run into it numerous times. Many thanks go to Dana for looking into this one. -
adelady at 09:29 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
We're moving in a few days. We've had solar hot water since forever at this big old high ceilinged house, we're not used to the kind of power bills others get - we don't use airconditioning. So we're buying full solar PV there. Also looking at doubling up the glazing on the west and north facing windows - we can see the sea from the kitchen sink so we know we'll get maximum afternoon heat and a lot of cold wet winter wind from that direction. Whirlybirds to ventilate the roof to reduce heat buildup in summer. Also need a verandah or some other shading on the west - I can't imagine how people have lived there during hot weather until now. There's a park across the back fence, perhaps they picnicked under the trees. And we're used to having a rainwater tank, so that's top of the list also. We'll be walking distance from the train, not replacing the car just yet. Hoping for EV when we do. -
KR at 09:16 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Let's see - I'm telecommuting several days a week, rather than the 1.5 hour round trip through DC traffic, recycling all we can, and driving relatively small cars (Mini @28 MPG, Matrix at @24 MPG, mixed driving). Not perfect by any means, though... -
KR at 09:13 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
In my previous post, we're looking at >90% renewable referred to the amount of power coming from wind or solar, with the additional ~10% coming from fossil fuels. A huge reduction over coal... -
KR at 09:12 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD - It's been demonstrated that adding local storage (molten salt for CSTP, for example) can turn 25% availability into >75% for any one site. Add in a unified grid, really a requirement for renewables, plus a few gas turbines as fallbacks, and over a few hundred kilometers the off time for all inputs drops near zero. Yes, this requires overbuilding, as no single site will be running at full capacity all the time. But given distributed renewable inputs (wind, solar, with gas backup) we're looking at >90% renewable supplying the baseline with no outre assumptions whatsoever. Granted, there are areas like the UK where land is limited, sunshine poor, and only so much area for wind - I don't believe based on the studies I've read that the UK can support itself with internally based renewable energy. But add in North Africa, a lovely place to put solar power generators, NE Europe, excellent placement for wind power, etc., and it would be quite possible to import enough energy to supply European needs. Just replace oil imports with powerlines... I suspect that for areas such as the UK nuclear will be a preferable source, although I suspect some careful economic analysis is required - but claims that renewables cannot meet baseline needs (with some fossil fuel backups) are just not supportable. -
dana1981 at 08:59 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
Andy - tough one. Tell the parents to move :-) Hopefully air travel will start moving towards biofuels. There's slight movement in that direction so far. Dave123 - I presume you mean '04, as there were no commercial hybrids in '94. I believe the interior of the Prius has more room than the Civic, or at least comparable. I frequently put the seats down and toss my bicycle inside the Prius. -
Dave123 at 08:49 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
We've had a Honda Civic Hybrid since 94...it performed better at the beginning, but has fallen well off of 48 mgp down to mid-to-high 30s. My sister-in-law has seen the same problem. Prius would have been nice but you have to be able to fit in car. Most light bulbs at this point are CFLs...living in a cold climate the benefit in winter is reduced vs incandescent...heat is heat. When we are in Europe we have no car, only foot, bicycle and public transport...except for rare occasions when we rent for business reasons. We've replaced all the windows in the house with much higher R-value double paned/e-filled, and we've done a fair amount of additional insulating. We also house share, so the per capita is reduced. If we have to replace the boiler, we'll go geothermal for the incremental money, but that's not part of the picture now. Buying local vs elsewhere? My wife signed us up for a farm share.... not sure how that works out cost or energy wise And going back and forth between Europe and the US? Well I only hope what I do causes enough energy savings to make up for the travel. -
BBD at 08:39 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
And capacity at any scale vs realistic demand scenarios. -
BBD at 08:38 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
dana1981 We've been through all this. The missing element here is scalability. -
Andy Skuce at 08:34 AM on 8 July 2011Climate Solutions by dana1981
I bought a Toyota Yaris rather than an a Prius because it was about half the price and we only drive about 4000 km a year. It would take a long time to make up the price differential and I'm not sure that it would even be worthwhile from a resource standpoint over the life of the car with such low annual mileage (assuming that it takes less to build a Yaris. Local taxi drivers use the Prius more and more and they all seems delighted with the gas money they save, since they drive a great deal of miles in the stop-go traffic that so suits the Prius. My big environmental quandary is what to do about air travel. My wife and I live in Canada and we both have ageing parents in Europe. Any other savings we might make are dwarfed by the emissions due to our unavoidable air travel. -
dana1981 at 08:27 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
That's not true. There are real-world examples of renewables providing baseload energy (geothermal, solar thermal, biomass, etc.). -
BBD at 08:16 AM on 8 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
dana1981 AGW is supported by convergent observations. Renewable baseload is not. Surely someone seasoned in debating with 'sceptics' can see this?
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