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Comments 81001 to 81050:

81001. actually thoughtful at 12:48 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Based on Bern #49 - advice for all my Canadian friends DO NOT buy a mobile home! These things are proven to attract tornadoes. Indeed there is strong evidence that the extreme tornado season has more to do with the sale of mobile homes in the Southern USA than ANYTHING to do with AGW http://www.drroyspencer.com/category/blogarticle/page/2/ Heh - probably the only time I will be referencing Dr. Roy Spencer - unless to question his results....
81002. Tom Curtis at 12:40 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman @39, from Neumayer and Barthel, 2011: Note, a Major disaster is a disaster in which 100 or more people died, or in which there was a certain, time adjusted value of damage done. So Norman, is that the information you wanted me to get from that paper? Or did you just want me to cherry pick the data on their normalized damages (which is down by their method of normalizing, but up by the more standard measure)? In the paper Neumayer and Barthel address the key issue of whether the decline in normalized losses (by their method) is due to a decrease in damaging potential of disasters, or to improved methods of mitigating:

       "One of the problems with normalizing damage from natural disasters, independently of the method chosen, is our inability to take into account defensive mitigating measures, which rational individuals would undertake in response to an increasing frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards. An increase in such measures could prevent an increasing trend in natural disaster loss that would otherwise occur in the absence of such measures and could thus prevent detection of a potential climate change signal in the data. For example, flood defence measures in Western Europe have dramatically reduced the risk of flood damages from winter storms (e.g., Lavery and Donovan (2005) on the River Thames tidal defences or Ronde et al. (2003) on flood defence development in the Netherlands), while stricter building codes introduced in parts of coastal Florida from the mid-1990s onwards have significantly reduced hurricane damage from Hurricane Charley in 2004 (Institute for Business and Home Safety 2008). Our findings of a downward trend in natural disaster loss with the alternative method for all natural disasters and for all non-geophysical disasters at the global level could be driven by such measures. Splitting up the sample into developed versus developing countries, we find a strong and more clearly statistically significant downward trend for developed countries, but no trend whatsoever for developing countries. This would also be consistent with increased defensive mitigating measures since developed countries are much better able to fund such measures than developing countries. To be sure, increased mitigating measures are only one possible explanation for the findings, but not the only one."

       (My emphasis) They discuss this issue at length, and show (charts given above) that geophysical disasters have increased slightly over a thirty year period, but that weather related disasters have increased substantially. They then discuss the possibility that this is just due to increased reporting. They show that the significantly greater increase of weather related disasters persists if you only look at major disasters, that would not be under reported in the past. They also point out that even in densely inhabited nations like Germany, where no previously uninhabited areas have become inhabited over the past thirty years, the same pattern exists. They conclude:

       "Independently of the reason behind the strong increase in the frequency count of weather-related disasters over our period of analysis, how can this be reconciled with our finding of no upward trend in normalized damage from natural disasters? There are three possibilities. First, there could be an opposite reporting bias in terms of damage caused such that economic loss is over-estimated in the early years of our study period and under-estimated in the later years. Second, weather-related natural disasters could have become less intensive over time. Third, weather-related natural disasters have not become less intensive, but defensive mitigating measures have prevented increasingly frequent weather-related natural disasters from causing an upward trend in normalized natural disaster loss. Since there is little reason to presume that loss has been systematically over-estimated in the past or that weather related natural disasters have become less intensive, the third explanation presents a distinct possibility."

       I consider the last sentence a significant under statement. There is a significant irony in your pointing to this paper. You have argued that Munich Re data should be ignored because it measures disasters (damaging events) rather than hazards (potentially damaging events). Now you look at a paper and cherry pick the damage done as being significant, while ignoring the clear evidence on the number of events, and that the increase in damaging events is correlated with an increase in hazards. And you now accept a study financed by, and using data from Munich Re because you think it supports your case. Your selective standards could not be more openly displayed.
81003. adelady at 12:32 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       camburn "There is a natural wet dry cycle in this part of North America. We are now in the wet cycle, and have been since approx 1992. ... During the dry cycle the dams were low on water and the Fish and Wildlife were screaming ... and the dams were refilled with no room for flood mitigation. All last winter and spring the dams have been releasing minimal amounts of water. ...this spring the dams were full." Since 1992? How come the flooding wasn't so extensive during the previous 8 years of the 'wet cycle'?
81004. Camburn at 12:25 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       adelady@46: I am not familiar with all the dynamics of Aussie flooding, so can't comment on them. AS far as USA flooding: 1. The flood on the Mississippi this spring did not exceed the flood of 1927, if memory serves me. 2. The flood on the Missouri River basin has two causes: a. There is a natural wet dry cycle in this part of North America. We are now in the wet cycle, and have been since approx 1992. b. Extremely poor management of the Missouri River dams. During the dry cycle the dams were low on water and the Fish and Wildlife were screaming to decrease the discharge rates. Well, they got their way and the damn were refilled with no room for flood mitigation. All last winter and spring the dams have been releasing minimal amounts of water. So when the rain, enhanced by La Nina in this area, came this spring the dams were full. When the snow pack started melting, the discharge rate had to be increased to a very high level. Without the damn, the flooding would have been minimal. The same applies to the Mouse River. The floods on the Missouri and Mouse are man made.
81005. windbarb at 12:23 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Eric @ 37 and 47, The answer is both. Some of the SST forecasts are produced by GCMs and others are shorter-range dynamical models (or statistical models, which don't replicate the atmosphere like a GCM does). GCMs are still not handling ENSO well, and that includes both amplitude and phase. Some GCMs indicate that in a warmer climate, ENSO could look more "La Nina-like", while others look more "El Nino-like". I don't have a specific reference handy, unfortunately, but I did listen to a lecture by Michael Mann just this spring, and he was inclined to think the La Nina-like solutions might be more favored. Until the models get better at resolving ENSO events in climate simulations, though, much of this is scientific speculation and very early hypothesis generation! Regarding model resolution of the steepness of the curve in early vs later runs, I actually don't have a good answer for you, but that is a very good question. Again, hope this has helped!
81006. windbarb at 12:16 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       actually thoughtful @ 22, A deterministic solution is one answer to a question, even though producing one answer might not be the best science. A good example is a forecast of temperature for 7 days from now. I can tell you that our forecast is 90F, which is a deterministic forecast. A deterministic model produces one solution. An ensemble produces multiple solutions by varying one of two things, either the initial conditions or the model physics. It allows a forecaster (weather or climate) to quantify the uncertainty in the forecast by looking at the range of solutions created by very small changes. Ed Lorenz is the grandfather of the ensemble idea courtesy of his "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow" paper (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281963%29020%3C0130%3ADNF%3E2.0.CO%3B2). CPC relies on not just their own CFS model, but the whole suite of model solutions seen in the IRI chart. By that chart, the majority of models indicate a neutral phase, with a few outliers (CFS included) in either direction. Their weekly and monthly summaries do follow a template, but I agree that they don't discuss the envelope of solutions as thoroughly as they could.
81007. actually thoughtful at 12:15 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman without looking at your source for veracity - 4 so far this century, extrapolated, would be 36 this century - or a 50% increase over last century. So even your own data support Tom Curtis's point. I can't speak as to whether your data is accurate or not, just that it supports the point that more heat will lead to more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas.
81008. Bern at 12:14 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman, to take the key sentence from Pielke Jr's response, he looks at "tornadoes, large-scale river floods (in unaltered river basins), and landfalling hurricanes" to make his assertion. That seems to be a nicely cherry-picked selection of criteria. Let me offer my opinions: Tornadogenesis is a very difficult question at the best of times. But it seems obvious from my reading on the subject that it requires severe thunderstorms in combination with strong wind-shear aloft to induce rotation, forming supercells. Well, the Gulf of Mexico had abnormally high sea surface temperatures this northern Spring. Combine that with higher moisture content due to a warmer atmosphere, and you've got the ingredients you need for a lot of very strong thunderstorms. So there may be a link (though tenuous, yet) between global warming and tornados. I understand the jet-stream (which causes the high altitude wind-shear) is predicted to move further north as the planet warms further, so perhaps we might see a long-term downward trend in tornados, despite the increased thunderstorms. Then again, maybe they'll just move further north, and the Canadians will get hammered instead of folks in the US central plains. Secondly, 'unaltered river basins' would restrict you to a very small subset of the world's major rivers... and that qualification seems designed to exclude pretty much every major river basin in the US, as they've all been altered. A convenient way to 'exclude' the record flooding in the Tennessee, Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri basins over the past 12 months or so. Also the Indus river in Pakistan (which displaced 20 million people when it flooded last year), and the major flooding experienced here in Australia over last summer. And restricting hurricanes to land-falling only allows him to discount the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the second most active on record, despite almost no storms affecting the US. A pretty bunch of cherries, indeed...
81009. adelady at 12:11 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       norman - first things first. That 4% increase is averaged over the whole atmosphere. The average automatically requires that in some places at some times, there will be much more than 4% increase and in others a decrease. Once we take that into account, it's much easier to see why there are more floods caused by unusually intense deluges - Pakistan, Colombia and Toowoomba being the classic examples, and others in the USA. The increased average moisture just means that the expected drought/flood variations around the world become more exaggerated. Australia and the USA provide the obvious examples of extensive flooding in some regions matched by equally intense drought and wildfire in others. Queensland and Victoria flooding while Perth is on fire, Missouri and Mississipi rivers flooding huge areas while parched Texas and Arizona burn.
81010. Eric (skeptic) at 12:11 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       windbarb, if you have a chance, I would like add ENSO frequency to my question. I noticed that the ensemble members that are steepest are usually labeled "latest" forecast members and the less steep ones are labeled "earliest" (at least that is the case now during a forecasted transition back to La Nina). But in earlier forecasts this year the blue and red members were more evenly distributed (+/-), was that just because it was early season forecast (and less reliable)? Is there some indication from these models that inflection points are more closely spaced and/or slopes are steeper?
81011. Norman at 12:06 PM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Tom Curtis @40 "You have been presented evidence that warm conditions result in more frequent El Nino or La Nina states (ie, fewer years of neutral ENSO states), and in more intense El Nino and La Nina's, both of which would result in more and more intense weather extremes." You have presented this but at the same time I find information that does not support this. El Nino events: 16th Century: 17 17th Century: 21 18th Century: 28 19th Century: 30 20th Century: 24 21th Century: 4 so far Link to source of information Historical El Nino's.
81012. actually thoughtful at 11:46 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Camburn read the ENSO report you linked earlier in this thread. It answers your question in 42
81013. Norman at 11:45 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       adelady @ 38 Why would a 4% increase in atmospheric moisture lead to several % increase in precipitation (that is why I ask for mechanisms). Extreme weather events seem to be caused by storms stalling or tracking over the same area. And it seems it has happened forever. Drought and flood cycle is a yearly event somewhere. Some places get much below their normal moisture and others get much above. What is global warming doing to the forces that cause drought and flood to increase? Here is a link from climate scientists who were asked the very same question being discussed here. Climate scientists debate the issue. If you read Roger A. Pielke Jr's response to the question you will see what my current position is and why I am questioning Skeptical Scientists posts on the issue.
81014. actually thoughtful at 11:42 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Camburn your link at 35 demonstrates the what - El Nino an a negative NAO. You would do well to think about the "why" of those two events. There isn't any claim that weird weather hasn't happened in the past. The claim is that there is more weird weather now, and it is intensifying. It is an interesting link, but I left it feeling very unsatisfied that they didn't dig into the why.
81015. Camburn at 11:42 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Tom: What evidence do you have that Enso has increased numerically?
81016. Camburn at 11:38 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       adelady: Please cite literature for that 4% increase in moisture.
81017. Tom Curtis at 11:37 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman @34, your original statement was:

       " Basically the Munch Re report can not be used to determine the frequency of extreme weather events (hazards). An EF5 tornado is only a hazard in a field with no people present. It is recorded as a disaster when it strikes a populated area. Disasters are increasing but not enough data is available to determine if hazards are increasing."

       (My emphasis) Despite your obvious awareness of the distinction between "hazards" and "disasters", in 23 above you dispute Master's observations about the number of hazards solely on the basis of evidence relating to, not even the number, but just the scale of the disasters. So strong do you believe this evidence of the scale of disasters in the United States over part of the period of discussion, you consider it not only grounds to dismiss Master's observations about the number of hazards globally over a longer period, but sufficient grounds for accusations of fraud and dishonesty. In other words, what counts as a reason to believe something completely reverses for you, depending on what it will require you to believe. This has been evident before. Shen presented with evidence showing the danger of AGW you strain at gnats in your critical analysis, going so far as to quote the sexual scandal in a subsidiary of Munich Re as a reason to believe Munich Re's reported statistics on natural disasters are falsified. In contrast, when presented with evidence purporting to show the opposite, even evidence which has been refuted, you show no critical analysis. Instead you just thank the denier for the information, or just accept it as something that needs to be disproved. Your pose is well and truly exposed by your hypocritical response to Master's post. Finally, a denier is somebody who refuses to accept evidence that AGW is real and/or sufficiently dangerous to warrant taking effective action against it. You have been presented evidence that the number of weather related disasters is increasing faster than can be accounted for without reference to global warming. You have been presented evidence that warm conditions result in more frequent El Nino or La Nina states (ie, fewer years of neutral ENSO states), and in more intense El Nino and La Nina's, both of which would result in more and more intense weather extremes. You have been presented evidence of increased strengths of convective events, of increase water in the hydrological cycle due to the straightforward correlation between increased surface temperatures and increased evaporation. None of this is enough for you. Given the fact that evidence of a low number of disasters over 2% of the Earth's surface over twelve months is sufficient evidence for you to suggest fraud in somebody claiming a high frequency of hazards over the entire globe over eighteen months, clearly your failure to be convinced is not due to your high evidentiary standards.
81018. Norman at 11:31 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       This report is for you Tom Curtis. Global Environmental Change.
81019. adelady at 11:17 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman "It will cause some warming of the Globe. ... as well as wanting some mechanisms to explain why warming is causing the extremes." Just checking before going further with this. When you accept the science of 'warming', do you accept that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture? Given that, do you accept the commonly cited figure of 4% more moisture related to the measured warming so far? More moisture requires more precipitation - sometime, somewhere. Would taking that into account go any distance as an explanation of 'warming causing the extremes' for you?
81020. Eric (skeptic) at 11:14 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       windbarb, thanks for the answers. I have a more general question, are these ENSO prediction models similar to or different from the GCMs for long term climate prediction? It seems to me that the main difference is the availability of detailed initial conditions for ENSO prediction. We had a discussion on another thread on whether ENSO was becoming more extreme (in amplitude). Do the models yield any insight on possible trends?
81021. Camburn at 11:13 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Ooops......2009-2010 snows etc.
81022. Camburn at 11:09 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       The snows, temp etc of the 2010-2011 winter in the US were not a result of AGW. This is what NOAA has found: NOAA climate slueths
81023. sgmuller at 11:09 AM on 28 June 2011
       The false, the confused and the mendacious: how the media gets it wrong on climate change
       I am finding that a common tactic by the denialists is to use the "freedom of speech" to distract from any argument about the facts. This is consistent with the way the Climate Change debate is conducted as a political argument rather than a scientific one. Refer to a famous Monty Python sketch if you are unceratin of the difference. A political argument generally has two sides. As soon as you begin to take part in this political argument then "they" have made a huge gain. Because news organisations must have two sides (not just News ltd, but the ABC and Fairfax), it means that the 3% of GW deniers out there have leveraged themselves up to 50% of the opinion. Its really telling to see daily reports of Gillard's support declining to only 40% but not a whisper of the barely 3% support of the skeptical position on AGW. In the politics of a western democracy, every individual opinion is equal. That isn't true in science. In Science the value of your opinion depends on your skills and experience and observations. Think about a horse race, the average citizen is a half-drunk punter at the start of the straight, 400 metres behind the finish line. The climate scientists meanwhile are like stewards, they are right on the finish line with access to the photo-finish. Whose opinion is the most valuable? The current political debate ignores that reality and is pandering to the conceit of the consumer who are lead to believe that the opinions of a tabloid columnist on a complicated science is of equal value to an experienced NASA climate scientists studying the latest data. So, rather than asking how we can force the media to tell the truth, we should be asking how we can re-frame the debate as a scientific one rather than a political one.
81024. Bern at 11:05 AM on 28 June 2011
       A journey into the weird and wacky world of climate change denial
       Chemware, Chris G, thanks for that discussion - quite thought-provoking. I think one class of 'deniers / sceptics' that is frequently missed, though, are the people who are intelligent, and able to connect the dots, but who have been fed incorrect information by their trusted media outlets, whether inadvertently or by design. I know several people in that category myself. One in particular is very difficult to persuade otherwise, as it also aligns with his political leanings, which is why he was exposed to mis-/dis-information in the first place - there's certainly no denying that disinformation in regard to global warming is more prevalent among the political right.
81025. Norman at 10:58 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Tom Curtis @30 "It turns out that you are just another denier who poses as a neutral questioner, but whose real agenda is to raise doubt - any doubt regardless of rationality - with relation to any evidence for AGW." Actually Tom I think the physics to AGW is valid. People are burning lots of carbon based fuel and are most likely increasing the amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. It will cause some warming of the Globe. As this website states, a denier is one who will not change based upon valid evidence. I am a skeptic in this issue (Weather extermes due to Global warming). I will change my view when valid evidence is presented to prove this conclusion. What I have been requesting is balance with historical data as well as wanting some mechanisms to explain why warming is causing the extremes. If it be flooding, drought etc. what is the warming atmophere doing to cause these events to take place at a greater frequency or intensity. Jeff Masters lists a lot of bad events that happened in 2010 but provides very little linking mechanisms to explain how global warming was responsible. He is a PhD meterologist and would have the knowledge to provide links and mechanisms. If I am given this type of information and would still deny it, then your label of "denier" would be most correct. (-Snip-).
       Moderator Response: (DB) As it stands at this time, you are very close to relinquishing your ability to participate in this Forum - please be very circumspect with your formulation of your comments from now on. Accusations of fraud and dishonesty are NOT "questioning" anything.
81026. Norman at 10:46 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Sphaerica @ 32 I did find a link that shows global events in type and size (unfortunately not intensity). If you are interested scroll down the page on the link I will provide. Go to the heading Recent Years and click on the link that reads "Monthly and Seasonal Global Temperatures and Precipitation". This will bring up a grid of x's. Click on the Monthly X's for Global Map of Weather events. I have not been through each year (some years use a rotating globe and it is harder to compare this with the flat maps) I was hoping you can tell me why 2010 looks worse than 2009? Or maybe anyother year you choose to compare it with. Link to maps Link to Global Weather maps.
81027. Norman at 10:26 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Tom Curtis @30 In the previous thread you reference I was not arguing that point. I was arguing the validity of Munich Re study (not a scientific research group). I am not arguing either point that there are more or less hazardous weather because of damage done. I do not think there is enough information available to make any declarative statement. My main goal is to not to blindly accept these posters view without some really good validation. Jeff Masters post picks some of the extreme events of 2010 and is using this as evidence that Global Warming is the cause. At this time I still do not know if the events are more or less extreme than previous years or close to the same as have been for years. My belief is that the focus and reporting is now on extreme weather events and it makes it look as if things are getting much worse.
81028. Bob Lacatena at 10:25 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       31, Norman, Your Global Death rate study is meant not to study the effects of weather events due to climate change, but rather the impacts of advancing society on the detrimental effects of weather. It also stops at 2006. That's why it says this (emphasis mine):

       If extreme weather has indeed become more extreme for whatever reason, global and U.S. declines in mortality and mortality rates are perhaps due to increases in societies’ collective adaptive capacities.

       and this:

       Moreover, if the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events has increased in recent decades – all empirical issues best left to climatologists – there is no signal of that in the data on either mortality rates or (more importantly) mortality, despite an increase in populations at risk.

81029. Norman at 10:18 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       actually thoughtful @ 28 Thanks for the correction. It would be 2009, 2002, and 2000 as the years with less damage than 2010. I did find this report on Global death rate based upon weather related events. It has been going down not up. The paper references you concerns that Climate Change may cause more extreme weather related events. Here is a link to the study.. Global Death rate from weather related causes.
81030. Tom Curtis at 09:50 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman @23, thank you for exposing for all to see both your hypocrisy and your agenda. In the extreme weather thread you have been very busily arguing that records of increased extreme weather events are purely a function of increased damage done. Here, because it is convenient, you argue exactly the reverse, ie, that because there is less damage done there were fewer extreme weather events. The cherry picked nature of your argument (using just US data, and just 2010 when global events over 2010 and 2011 where being discussed) has been noted by others. It turns out that you are just another denier who poses as a neutral questioner, but whose real agenda is to raise doubt - any doubt regardless of rationality - with relation to any evidence for AGW.
81031. Bob Lacatena at 09:47 AM on 28 June 2011
       New Zealand Snow No Show = No Jobs
       6, newairly, The words "low" and "high" refer to the impact scenarios used to produce the accompanying values ("low impact" and "high impact"), not to the depth of the snow itself. More specifically, from Hennesey 2003:

       Two scenarios were used in the model, both of which were equally likely, but associated with uncertainties. The low impact scenario used the lowest projected warming combined with the highest estimate of increased precipitation. The high impact scenario used the highest projected warming with the highest estimate of decreased precipitation. We have very high (at least 95%) confidence that the low impact limits will be exceeded and that the high impact limits will not be exceeded.

81032. actually thoughtful at 09:40 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman, You questioning of Dr. Master's motives is a violation of the comments policy. I do think it detracts from whatever point you were trying to make. The problem with the content of your post (beyond the gratuitous cheap shot at Dr. Masters) is: 1) it is factually incorrect (2009 total damage: $7.5 billion, 2010 $9.9 billion (impossible according to your "analysis")) - but more importantly - 2) Dr. Masters is writing about global weirding (his delightful turn of phrase). You respond with your erroneous analysis that only covered the United States. Dr. Masters' reference to the United States was for the weather unfolding now in 2011, for which the statistics have not yet been compiled. [But to give you a sense of why the good Doctor was delayed - JUST the Mississippi flooding south of Memphis is at $9 billion (ie more than 2009 for the whole country, for the whole year and approaching 2010 already - just for one small region! and the year isn't even half done!!). “I am going to estimate in the $6 billion to $9 billion range for total damages from Memphis southward to the gulf,” Mr. Hicks said. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/us/18river.html] If I may call you Horatio: There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy. (William Shakespeare)
81033. Bob Lacatena at 09:40 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       26, Norman, Stop ignoring the fact that your numbers are not global, and are a cherry-picked statistic. Your attempt at undermining Dr. Master's post is lame, at very best. It's more, clear evidence of how the Denial Team operates.
81034. Norman at 09:37 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       michael sweet @ 24 2010 was in the middle of the fatalities for the 11 years (2000-2011). 5 years had more and 5 years had fewer. To get little files that break down the deaths and damage by type of extreme weather event, click on US summaries, click on any date in the list and it brings up a file that breaks down the death and damage from weather related disasters.
81035. Bob Lacatena at 09:33 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       23, Norman, Dr. Masters clearly used a more intelligent and insightful method, one of examining weather events around the globe, from the unique perspective of someone who deals with them regularly and so is capable of clearly noticing when something is amiss, and based not on some linear measure such as dollars of damage, but rather by how likely such events are to occur in any particular year. Your own method of cherry picking one statistic (dollars in damages) for one small fraction of the globe (the US) hardly holds up to scrutiny. Your aggressive and condescending tone when posting your (inadequate) counter-claim speaks volumes by itself.
81036. michael sweet at 09:27 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Norman, When I open your link I see a graph indicating 2010 had unusually high fatalities. Perhaps you care more about dollars than people. I imagine when Dr. Masters referred to "the past few months" he meant 2011, which is not included in your summary. Tornadoes, floods, drought and fires have all been at record extent in the US over that time period. Perhaps you could document when Dr. Masters would have had time in between all these extreme events to write out a summary of last year. The US is only 2 or 3% of global land area. The title of the thread is "Earth's Extrme Weather". Just because the US did not get hit last year does not mean that Globally it was not bad.
81037. Kimpost at 09:26 AM on 28 June 2011
       The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
       Regarding Kiwiiano's comment above, I think that he/she was asking for a high resolution PDF, rather than for a printer friendly version of the download page.
81038. newairly at 09:18 AM on 28 June 2011
       New Zealand Snow No Show = No Jobs
       Are the high and low captions reversed on the graph of snow depth?
81039. Norman at 09:14 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       It seems Jeff Masters must have a very short memory. He states: "The pace of incredible extreme weather events in the U.S. over the past few months have kept me so busy that I've been unable to write-up a retrospective look at the weather events of 2010." (-SNIP-). I checked the US extreme weather events for the last 10 years and 2010 is rather mediocre. Of the last 11 years only 2000 and 2002 had lower overall damage (dollars). About in the middle for number of deaths. Source of Data I used. (Offensive link label snipped)
       Moderator Response: (DB) Very offensive accusations of fraud and dishonesty snipped. Needless to say, participation in this Forum is a privilege which WILL be rescinded if you repeat this behavior.
81040. actually thoughtful at 09:13 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Windbarb - thanks for the information. What is the difference between an deterministic solution and an ensemble? Is the CPC hedging their bets on their La Nina conditions prediction? (by which I mean not including it in their summary and having the disclaimer about the majority of models disagreeing)? Or is this just how the report always looks? Many thanks for you sharing your knowledge.
81041. Camburn at 09:09 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       windbarg@19 Thank you for the explanation.
81042. windbarb at 09:00 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       And, to clarify for actually thoughtful and any others... NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS = National Weather Service (under NOAA) NCEP = National Centers for Environmental Prediction (under NWS) CPC = Climate Prediction Center (under NCEP... at least for now. If Congress approves the National Climate Service, the chain of command will be NOAA/NCS/CPC)
81043. windbarb at 08:55 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       For Eric, Camburn, Albatross, and others who were wondering: The IRI graph is a collection of a great number of statistical and dynamical model SST predictions from various agencies around the globe. The CFS model is included in that suite, listed as "NCEP CFS" in the legend and denoted by blue squares. CPC's CFS model is run as a deterministic solution (seen in the IRI graphic) as well as in an ensemble, and the CFS ensemble graphic is also presented in CPC's outlook so that you can see the envelope of possibilities from that one model. Also, addressing #15 (Eric) above, CFS has been variable this year because it's a natural model tendency to not have good predictability during the spring and early summer, especially when the signals are less than clear (i.e. development of a cold or warm phase episode is not imminent). It's termed the "spring frailty" and remains a barrier to ENSO predictability. ENSO is most predictable in the late summer through the winter. I hope that helps, and I'll be happy to clarify if there are any other questions!
81044. actually thoughtful at 08:53 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Camburn, Thank for the link. The paper says the majority of the models predict neutral (page 27). But NCEP CFS.v1 and v2 predict La Nina conditions (page 28). I don't know what NCEP is, but I assume that is the NOAA folks. They are predicting La Nina conditions, but they don't include it in their summary, and they are at pains to point out that no one agrees with them, and that all multi-model outlooks disagree. But I do give you credit for providing a complete link to a credible source, I don't always perceive you as doing that. Rob - well I guess you and I are expecting what no one else is at this point. If the current trend on page 26 continues (+.3/month) - you get to be right! That page itself is interesting (only 10 years though) 35 months of El Nino conditions and only 19 months of La Nina. Eyeballing the previous page it looks like there was more balance between all three (neutral, cold and hot) in the 30 years prior to 2002 (which is what you said).
81045. bill4344 at 08:50 AM on 28 June 2011
       The false, the confused and the mendacious: how the media gets it wrong on climate change
       Robert Murphy, In the rest of the world we've already accepted that corporations do not have the right to lie merely because it is convenient for them to do so. 'Caveat emptor' is the credo of the con-man. 'First amendment fundamentalists' are just that - fundamentalists; people who have deliberately blunted their intellects to all shade and nuance in order to subscribe to a rigid, simplistic dogma, like their market and christian cousins (many subscribe to all three theses, despite the inherent absurdity of the contradictions involved!) In Australia - and many other 'non-fundamentalist' countries that somehow manage to be generally both more egalitarian and liberal than the US - it is accepted that a right to broadcast includes a responsibility to serve the public interest. We have various regulatory offices that are supposed to enforce this. (In fact, this is the method by which civilised nations attempt to acknowledge and deal with what is actually an obvious problem - the interests of the private corporations that run the media and the public are not always the same thing.) However, in reality, corporate power almost invariably trumps such interests, not least via stirring up false-populist 'Freedom of Speech / Freedom of the Press' hysteria. And so it is a blatant straw man, not unrelated to the above, to talk about 'Truth Commissions'. In my city, incidentally, Murdoch owns every newspaper - the only national daily, the only state/local daily, and even all the suburban weekly fish-wrappers. Please don't talk to me about what a monopoly is.
81046. Eric (skeptic) at 08:24 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       "The countries that experienced all-time extreme highs in 2010 constituted over 20% of Earth's land surface area." From a climate standpoint, country borders are arbitrary and meaningless.
       A highly extreme negative phase of the NAO and AO returned again during November 2010, and lasted into January 2011. Exceptionally cold and snowy conditions hit much of Western Europe and the Eastern U.S. again in the winter of 2010 - 2011. Not substantially different from the 1970's.
       It is rather easy to find extremes if that is all one is looking for. OTOH, there are higher probabilities of some types of extremes with AGW, but hard to quantify, trending very slowly and heavily modulated by the atmospheric and oceanic circulation phases (which may be influenced by AGW although trends are not yet forthcoming).
81047. Camburn at 08:21 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Eric: Good question. NOAA long term climate predictions have been very accurate tho and they are based on the models they use to predict Enso. Luck of the draw?
81048. Eric (skeptic) at 08:07 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Does anyone know why CFS:
       
       is so different from IRI posted by Albatross above? A related question, the CFS forecasts have varied considerably up and down this year. Anybody know why they are so variable? Back in January, the forecast was for strong La Nina all summer (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/) The E1 predictions are especially bad (using oldest data for initial conditions) as compared to E2 and E3, I wonder why they even bother?
81049. Rob Painting at 08:03 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Camburn - Big spread of ENSO predictions. Interesting that NOAA are predicting La Nina when the tell-tale signs of El Nino seem to be taking shape in the equatorial Pacific. Actually Thoughtful - global warming has already sped up the frequency/intensity of ENSO during the 20th century. Whether it will continue to build up steam, has been much debated in scientific circles. The answer is we don't yet know - see The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño -Collins 2010. As for Jeff Masters expectation of a quiet period, he may turn out to be right, but it's probably just wishful thinking.
81050. Camburn at 07:44 AM on 28 June 2011
       2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
       Late fall is pretty dog gone soon Albatross.

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