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Comments 82701 to 82750:

82701. Bob Lacatena at 02:09 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       30, Ken,

       This site has degenerated somewhat into a forum for jeerers and jeerleaders.

       No, not at all. Some discussions degenerate because the parties involved are battling and lecturing, not discussing. When one party spends their time either completely mischaracterizing the statements of the other, or simply attacking him as an unworthy opponent, is when it degenerates.

       ...alarmist AGW.

       An offensive and useless adjective, used as a tactic to stealthily belittle a position not in line with your own.

       The usual targets - Christy, Spencer, Lindzen and anybody who publishes in E&E.

       E&E is a joke which has lost any pretense of respect among climate scientists. It only publishes the drivel that was unpublishable elsewhere, because it couldn't get past substantive review (such as the idea that the sun is made of iron).

       ...because the jeerleaders don't know quite as much as they think they do - particularly when numbers are quoted.

       Wow. I'll bet that was really easy to type, even while looking in the mirror.

       One wonders why the publishers of site have to keep bashing Christy, Spencer, Lindzen and anybody who publishes in E&E.

       No, one doesn't. It's obvious, as is your rhetoric. The answer? Christy, Spencer and Lindzen are demonstrably wrong, but keep shouting their positions anyway. And, as already stated, E&E is the joke that gives their discredited positions the appearance of any semblance of substance.

       Surely if the science of alarmist AGW is so overwhelmingly strong - the heretics can just be ignored.

       No, because the heretics spend a lot of time in the main stream media, giving talks, appearing on Fox News, and the like. They don't appear to be so much interested in advancing the science (by oh, I don't know, maybe publishing defensible papers in reputable, respected journals) as simply repeating the same false, debunked untruths and misrepresentations over and over again. The heretics could be ignored if there weren't a faithful cadre of people eager to believe what they are saying, in spite of the evidence and facts. Not only do those people believe it, but they repeat it, preach it, and expound on it at length on this very blog, taking the nonsense and spinning it into a complex and through its complexity a seemingly valid argument, to then be grabbed and trumpeted by other people, equally eager to believe what they want to believe, rather than what the facts lead to. [As a side note, your use of the word "heretic," which is yet another backhanded attempt to portray a proper understanding of the science as a religion, and those outside of the mainstream as a poor, persecuted souls, has not passed unnoticed.]
82702. Eric the Red at 02:05 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       I think the term, "alarmist AGW" is used to discredit AGW as a whole in the same way that "denier" is used to discredit those who view AGW with true skepticism. By using the most alarming statements made (and there are some doozies out there), and attributing them to AGW as a whole, some people have tried to present this as the typical thinking of climate scientists. True alarmists and deniers use these terms to refer to those who represent the low ends and high ends of climate science, in addition to those who are truly and the ends of the spectrum. This is a political argument whereby one side tries to paint the opponent(s) as being much further from the middle than they really are. Additionally, the added terminology thrown around appears to be an attempt to present ones adversaries as anti-science, using terms from times of political suppression. The science will eventually win out. The Earth will do whatever nature dictates, regardless of what we think will happen. On rare occassions, those on the edges of the scientific spectrum are proven correct.
82703. Bob Lacatena at 01:46 AM on 14 June 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       59, Eric the Red, Doesn't it strike you as a little odd that in every single aspect of climate change you are able to look on the bright side, and rationalize a way in which rising temperatures can't possibly exist at all? The Arctic is melting at a frightening rate, and you "suspect sea ice will not surpass the 2007 lows," and anyway it's all due to wind and currents, and anyway another record low in an ongoing stream of record lows is no big deal anyway because you need a trend -- meaning a lot more years to watch the record lows keep one upping each other. Really, I'm sorry, but if this happened once or twice it would be credible. When someone can't admit to any symptom of a warming world, it's beginning to look like... shoot, I can't think of a good, acceptable word to use. Do you have any clearly rational, positive-sounding suggestions?
82704. Albatross at 01:43 AM on 14 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       Adelady @11, Good points. The person in question is trying to argue a strawman, and move the argument from where we are heading. Their argument is also incoherent. They do not demonstrate using the scientific literature that ENSO/SOI teleconnects with summer temperatures over Europe. But their argument is moot, because contrary to their claim, ENSO conditions were in fact neutral during and in the months leading up to the European heat wave; there was a moderate El Nino in late 2002 (peaked just before Christmas), but it terminated in early 2003. Also, we should be urging the poster @9 to please read the paper by Stott et al. (2004). What we do know about that 2003 heat wave is this, an attribution study by Stott et al. (2004) found that: "Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude". The contrarians continue to try and derail and muddy the discussion, float red herrings and make strawman arguments......don't be fooled folks.
82705. adelady at 01:03 AM on 14 June 2011
       CO2 limits will harm the economy
       DSL - I tend to agree with their overview of the changes in politics and economics for the last few decades. However, let's not get too precious about the dreaded middle classes. The education and the economic freedom of the middle class has driven most important social changes of the last couple of centuries. In the current circumstances, giving this group a real financial push in the direction of say, solar PV and electric cars is one way to kickstart growth in these sectors. The financial push happens to be coming from a carbon tax under the current proposals. So that's the way to go. (And far better than the opportunities for backroom deals, or worse, in establishing a cap and trade system. In my view anyway.) I might prefer a decisive government program to 'get it done', but I'm unlikely to see my general political preferences come to pass any time soon anyway. So I'll take the best I can get for the time being.
82706. Tom Curtis at 01:02 AM on 14 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       batvette @30 there are three very good reasons for my including those last two comments: 1) I am used to deniers claiming falsehoods as facts when the falsehood can be shown to be such with the most trivial fact checking. In other words, many deniers simply make things up because it will be convenient to there argument; 2) You where making particular claims which I know to be highly improbable and for which it is very dubious that you have evidence. In particular you made the highly emotion laden claim that people where "...putting their babies to sleep at night with empty tummies" because of anti-AGW policies.; and 3) It is standard practise for deniers to apply standards to climate scientists that they neither accept for themselves, nor demand of their fellow travellers. Based on that experience, I neither expected you to comply with the standard you demand of climate scientist, and indeed you have not. And nor did I expect you to back your claims, and again you have not. In one point you claim that:

       "... it jumps out at me that the University itself would have the integrity of its science dept under fire for for allowing Mann to be inbvolved with any impropriety like this and would have every reason to try and protect their own- for this reason an "independent review" is almost always called for, not an "internal review" which is what seems to have been what went down here."

       What jumps out at me about this statement is that it shows absolutely no knowledge of typical disciplinary procedures at universities. For example, at the University of Queensland if the matter is disputed, allegations of misconduct are heard by a committee whose composition is determined as follows:

       "3.2.11 A Committee of Review will consist of a Chairperson, a nominee of the staff representatives of the ASCC and a nominee of the Relevant Senior Executive. The Chair will be chosen by the Relevant Senior Executive from a list of suitable persons agreed between the Relevant Senior Executive and the staff representatives of the ASCC at the commencement of the Agreement. Additional persons may only be added to this list by further agreement."

       In practise all three committee members will be university staff, or in some other way closely associated with the University. For non-academic staff, that the committee members be staff of the university is an explicit requirement. At George Mason University a similar procedure is followed. One difference is that it is an explicit part of the policy that:

       "Only university employees may serve on an inquiry or investigative committee in a research misconduct proceeding. However, the university may obtain the advice of non-employees with relevant expertise at any stage of the proceeding, including the preliminary assessment of the allegation. Except in extraordinary circumstances, the majority of a committee‟s members are tenured faculty"

       (Quoted in Appendix A) And at Penn State:

       "When an investigation is warranted, the Vice President for Research, in consultation with the appropriate budget executive and budget administrator, will appoint an ad hoc investigatory committee. The committee membership will include at least five tenured University faculty."

       So what you consider highly suspicious and reason to suspect a cover up was in fact simply following the stipulated procedures for investigating alleged academic misconduct at Penn State. That the university did exactly what its by-laws required of it in the circumstances, you and hundreds of denier blogs have interpreted as a cover up. In the meantime, the genuine cover up, the fact that George Mason University has ignored its stipulated policies for investigating misconduct when it comes to the plagiarism by Wegman and Said is simply ignored by the deniers and you. Plainly there is a double standard here, for it is not the probity of the Penn State inquiry into Mann that agitates the deniers. If it were, they would be more agitated and more vocal about the lack of inquiry at George Mason University. Turning now to that poor starving fictional baby, it is very plain that you do not know of a single such case. Had you known of it, you would not have appealed to "common sense" as evidence for it. "Common sense" in such discussions is always just a persons prejudices fed back to them and given a false stamp of authority by being labelled "common sense". But what common sense is never, and never can be is proof of particular incidents. If you step outside of the echo chamber you call "common sense" and into the world of genuine data, you would know that implementation of anti-AGW policies have not resulted in an economic downturn in any country or any region in the world. You would also know that postulated anti-AGW policies are shown by economic analysis to be compatible with continued per capita economic growth. Therefore there is not basis for you claim in fact, and we are left with the simple fact- you made the claim up yourself, and did so based on no evidence stronger than your own prejudice. So that is a fourth reason for the two comments you find so offensive: They where true!
82707. JMurphy at 00:59 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Ken Lambert wrote : "Surely if the science of alarmist AGW is so overwhelmingly strong - the heretics can just be ignored." A perfect example of the bankruptcy of so-called skepticism, because it encapsulates all of their fallacies : Use the term "alarmist AGW" without stating what it means. Use the term also to describe AGW as a whole, to limit the argument (at least in the so-called skeptic's mind) to a term ("alarmist") that doesn't need to be described because every so-called skeptic has their own personal definition. Call the so-called skeptical heroes "heretics" but, again, this terminology is only in their own minds. What heresy has to do with science, only the so-called skeptics know. Claim, spuriously, that because the tiny minority are being criticised and asked to back-up their claims (shocking, I know), there must obviously be some problem with AGW. If that doesn't work (or when one week changes to the next), claim that the so-called skeptical heroes are being ignored, denied, biased against, censored, subject to a left-wing conspiracy, etc.
82708. adelady at 00:52 AM on 14 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       Arkadiusz - I'm not sure what you're pointing to. You're not contesting that those heatwaves were exceptional or that a lot of people died I presume. So, are you saying that cooler temperatures elsewhere somehow 'offset' exceptional heat in particular places ... or ... what?
82709. John Hartz at 00:51 AM on 14 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       What are the latest findings about how the enhanced greenhouse effect is impacting the frequency and duration of the La Nina and El Nino events?
82710. DSL at 00:33 AM on 14 June 2011
       CO2 limits will harm the economy
       By the way, and someone may have already posted this, but here's some grain for the mill. The argument is that the carbon tax debate is a sort of "middle-class" solution: we see the problem, but we don't want fundamental change, so let's try a carbon tax.
82711. Eric the Red at 00:33 AM on 14 June 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       garethman, The temperature difference between the Arctic and NE Atlantic do tend to move in opposite directions based on the AO (Arctic oscillation). During the positive phase, lower Arctic pressure results in stronger winds over the Arctic, keeping colder weather bottled up in the Arctic region. During the negative phase (the past two winters), higher pressure exists in the Arctic, with lower pressure in the mid liattitudes, allowing the cold Arctic air to migrate southward. Storm tracks also tend to follow the winds southward, resulting in more snowfall. With colder waters in the North Atlantic, I suspect sea ice will not surpass the 2007 lows. Even though the current expanse is low and smiilar to 2010, the rate of decline is less (2010 had a larger April extent). It may come down to the winds and current again. I do not read too much into one year anyway, but rather the longer term trend. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/2/2/4760/The-Weather-Daily-for-Monday,-June-13,-2011
82712. chris at 00:26 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Ken Lambert at 23:45 PM on 13 June, 2011 Not really Ken. One wouldn't be concerned about the science misrepresentations and dodgy analyses of Lindzen, Spencer and Christy if these were simply scientists publishing into the vast repository of scientific literature where it would stand or fall on merit. Unfortunately their false analyses are used as if they present a justifiable alternative view of the science. They don't. They may well have an opinion on (say) climate sensitivity. However the evidence simply doesn't support their opinions (they haven't published data that indicates otherwise). Since their opinions seem to be useful for some groups that benefit from a misrepresentation of the science they have far more media visibility than is justified and likely a disproportionate influence on policymaking. Similar scenarios have occurred in the past as you know. The number of specific individuals that objectively misrepresented the science on the links between cigarette smoking and cancer and respiratory disease, or between aspirin-taking in children and Reyes syndrome were similarly small. However again since these misrepresentations were useful to some rather powerful interests the "opinions" of the misrepresenters had far too much influence on policymaking with appalling consequences. So these misrepresentations need continually to be highlighted and countered. It would be remiss not to do so, especially if we believe in democracy where Joe Public should have a reasonably faithful representation of scientific issues upon which to make informed decisions.
82713. DSL at 00:17 AM on 14 June 2011
       CO2 limits will harm the economy
       Eric, wealth obviously corresponds to a greater ability to cooperate, but relative wealth is an important idea to consider, as is the source of the wealth--the relationship between the origin of the wealth and who controls that wealth. I don't think it's at all valid to take the quoted finding and apply it to the banking industry in the US. It applies to Haitian farmers, who, as the report notes, don't always see "wealth" as money. They often see it as labor: time and energy to engage in some of the target practices. There is a fundamentally different human response when wealth is perceived as labor (an individual's time and energy) and when wealth is perceived as capital. Strengthening the economic security of everyone is a noble goal, Eric, but it is only coincidental to the central goal of capitalism (Heritage's interest)--to generate capital. The system requires poverty, desperation, and unemployment. It requires taxation without representation (capital is a tax imposed by property owners on "their" laborers). It lifts all boats, but it requires the water to rise faster and faster, but the boats are chained to the dock of material and historical reality--some with longer chains than others. When some of the boats disappear beneath the water, we are asked to ignore them (original American landowners), appreciate their noble sacrifice (late 19th century labor), or turn them into a historical oddity that has no economic bearing on the present (US and European slavery and imperialism). You may know how to manage your land best according to your own interests, but what are those interests? There are a range of responses between the well-being of all humans and individual collection of capital. As the Haitian study notes, "The finding that cooperation is conditional on the expected behaviour of others contradicts a strong individualist assumption made by conventional policy and project interventions in Haiti (and other places)."
82714. Tom Curtis at 00:08 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Ken Lambert @30, you cannot be unaware that the 1 in 100 (2 in 100 are merely unconvinced) gets far more media coverage than do the 97 in 100, and that their views have been far more influential on actual policy in the United States and Australia than the 97. That in itself is bizarre, and means their views require public rebuttal, however poorly founded they might be. You also undoubtedly know that you are setting up an illogical double bind. Apparently, by your reasoning, if Christy, Spencer or Lindzen are rebutted, well that proves that there is substance in their arguments. But of course if they are not rebutted, well that will be interpreted as the 97 of 100 not being able to rebut their arguments. So come what may, you have set up a logic in your mind that refuses to allow that the 1 of 100 could ever have been successfully rebutted, regardless of the evidence.
82715. chris at 00:02 AM on 14 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Bern, CBDunkerson's account is possibly about right. We're talking about analyses made over a 15 year period, and I've just looked at this from perusal of the papers that bear on this topic. Over that period there was uncertainty about proper adjustments of the satellite data to account for merging of different satellite sets and then the difficult-to-identify problems involving stratospheric cooling spillover, satellite drift and diurnal corrections. Christy and Spencer were rather adamant about the reliability of their methods right through this period (they wrote several responses to papers highlighting potential problems asserting their analysis was right). Their confidence that they were getting the "right" result was reinforced by a broad agreement with radiosonde data (weather balloons) that suggested that the troposphere wasn't warming. That data (the radiosondes) was also subsequently shown to be incorrect. The imperative to address possible problems with Christy and Spencer's analyses came from the evidence from models and especially tropospheric water vapour content that indicated that the troposphere should (models/physics) and must be warming (since tropospheric water vapour was increasing which is a signature of tropospheric warming). So the forces at play were probably a combination of ideological blinkers as CB Dunkerson suggests, and also the basic tendency to defend long-held interpretations. If one strips this of the political/ideological elements then this scenario would not be so problematic. Philosophy of science-wise it's appropriate/acceptable to defend theories/interpretations until the point when their defence is untenable. We're probably all the more certain that the tropsophere has warmed under the influence of enhanced greenhouse forcing as a result of very careful reanalysis of the discrepencies between the Spencer/Christy analyses and independent data/analyses. The real world does have to make sense - reality can't accommodate incompatible interpretations. The problems in this case are that (i) S/C seemed reluctant to consider the origins of increasing divergence between their data and independent analyses and evidence, (ii) their continuing (to this day) willingness to misrepresent the science and to attempt to "sell" objectively incorrect analyses.......and (iii) the essential unfairness that their opinions are considered by some (including real and potential policymakers) to outweigh the rest of the scientific evidence, while at the same time pukka scientists are subjected to disgraceful harrassment for being honest about their work and its implications.
82716. John Hartz at 00:02 AM on 14 June 2011
       SkS Weekly Digest #3
       @John Cook: To be most effective, the Weekly Digest should be distributed as a stand-alone email on Sunday. How feasible is it to let readers choose between subscribing to the Daily Digest, the Weekly Digest, or both?
82717. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 23:51 PM on 13 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       As an example, he pointed to record heat waves in Europe in 2003 that killed 40,000 people. Please take a look - what really happened in 2003 and 2006 - when - especially in Europe - have been heat waves. Global and regional temperatures, SOI, were significantly lower than in the years, "neighbors " - especially in the SH was cold. We had a La Nina with rapid beginning. In Europe, hot summers 2003 and 2006 were preceded by a very cold winter ...
82718. Ken Lambert at 23:45 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       jonicol #18 A reasonable question. (-Moderation complaints snipped-). The targets are the 3/100 of climate scientists who disagree with (-Ideology snipped-) AGW. The usual targets - Christy, Spencer, Lindzen and anybody who publishes in E&E. (-Moderation complaints snipped-). One wonders why the publishers of site have to keep bashing Christy, Spencer, Lindzen and anybody who publishes in E&E. (-Ideology snipped-).
       Response:

       [DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

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82719. Bob Lacatena at 23:32 PM on 13 June 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       michael sweet, You should probably amend your text with the image, to highlight the point of chuckbot's confusion. I imagine many people will find their eyes drawn naturally to the white snow as the comparative indicator, not realizing that it's the red/purple sea ice concentrations that are the focus, or that the 1980 image simply lacked representations of snow cover.
82720. Bob Lacatena at 23:30 PM on 13 June 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       Oh. Snowfall didn't exist on the images in 1980, which is probably why that looks like there is none... it's there, just not in the pictures, so its impossible to compare. I don't know when they started to track it on these pics (they only say "most recent dates"). But if you go to Cryosphere Today and do your own comparisons with more recent years, you'll also see that the snow cover is greatly reduced this year, and was in fact one of the first signs of things being worse this year, back when it was still too early in the season for sea ice concentrations to vary by much. To look at snow cover as well as snow anomalies, and over the entire northern hemisphere, try The Global Snow Lab (Rutgers University). Just follow the links. There are lots of cool tools. In particular, look at the anomalies for March (i.e. the consistent onset of earlier spring melt due to climate change).
82721. Riccardo at 23:22 PM on 13 June 2011
       It's too hard
       As a european who lived in the US for a while, this is one of the first things I noticed, the way they use energy and resources in general. In a few words, they just don't care, they use them as if they are infinite and cheap. Europe is just a bit better, or less bad if you wish. Still, we consume about half as the average american. Then, if by "stop living" batvette means "stop living the way we do", i.e. wasting huge amounts of energy and resources, I agree. I dare to ask americans in first place, but not just them of course, to stop wasting, a first easy and reasonable step. We're heading to the open ocean with not enough fuel and food supplies, it's not going to be safe nor pleasant.
82722. dhogaza at 23:04 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Given that Steve McIntrye's still "auditing" a paper published in the late 90s, you do have to wonder why he's not "audited" S&C's work from the same era, though, don't you? :)
82723. dhogaza at 23:03 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Actually, #27, the algebraic sign error was a blunder not related to uncertainty in how to build such a reconstruction, etc. I believe that thinks like their mistaken correction for drift was more subtle, but something professional satellite jockeys knew how to do. Others of the errors are probably more as you describe them. Things like algebraic blunders aren't uncommon but as you say, the fact that all their errors appear to have biased in the same direction does speak to "ideological blunders". They were convinced the world wasn't warming, set out to prove it, and were blind to errors that once corrected showed their belief to be incorrect.
82724. michael sweet at 22:08 PM on 13 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       They compare heat to a 1981-1999 baseline. If they compared to say 1900-1920 it might have already shifted into a new regime. In their conclusions they say: "actual GHG emissions over the early 21st century have exceeded those projected in the SRES scenario used here (Raupach et al. 2007), suggesting that our results could provide a conservative projection of the timing of permanent emergence of an unprecedented heat regime"
82725. Norman at 21:10 PM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       DB, Here is the part of the article that generated my line of posting (as well as your video). From article: "Another common denial argument is that ''climate has always changed in the past''. For the past 8000 years we have been in a stable climate. Society has never lived through the degree of climate change we are now causing. Bushfires can also be natural yet we don't dismiss the existence of arson. What most deniers conveniently overlook is that Australia is a nation at great risk from climate change. We are the driest inhabited continent in the world. Doing nothing about climate change will end up costing us far more than taking action such as instituting a carbon price." My research was to determine the validity of this statement and it is a common denial argument. I started to research climate of the past 8000 years and shorter term extreme weather events to see if we really have never lived through this level of climate change. That is why I felt it was the correct thread to post this discussion upon.
82726. CBDunkerson at 20:53 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Bern, my understanding is that the various issues that Spencer and Christy got wrong were mostly items that were 'uncertain' at the time. That is, creation of such a satellite temperature record had never been done before so the potential errors and methods of correcting for them were unknown. Thus, they basically made their 'best guess' on various issues which could bias the results either way. The fact that their choices consistently resulted in cooling adjustments (some of which have subsequently proved out) IS rather telling, but I think it speaks to ideological blinders rather than deliberate skullduggery. All of the things they got wrong were reasonable mistakes to make... at the time. As subsequent study and analysis has proved each to be incorrect they have eventually made corrections. That said, last I heard they were still disputing the diurnal correction adjustments.
82727. les at 19:52 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       30 - batvett "I don't think I need to produce evidence to prove common sense now, do I?" It makes me want to quote Rene Descartes

       Common sense is the most fairly distributed thing in the world, for each one thinks he is so well-endowed with it that even those who are hardest to satisfy in all other matters are not in the habit of desiring more of it than they already have.

       And the point out that, stating something is "common sense" doesn't make it true. You have to show show much hardship is "in the name of conservation" as opposed to policy on home ownership, deregulation etc. contributing to the financial turn-down. How about other factors like demand on oil from China, instability in Arabia and north Africa leading to higher oil prices and therefor higher production cots etc.? You have to show how many people are not going to the movies due to "the environment" as opposed to the explosion in home entertainment (download/postal delivery movies, gaming etc.) In fact you have to argue how climate contributes, in what proportion, to the current state of the economy; and "well, it's common sense" doesn't cut it.
82728. adelady at 19:16 PM on 13 June 2011
       It's too hard
       Sorry I omitted this. batvette's full comment can be found over at "Climategate conspiracy"
82729. adelady at 18:58 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       I've responded to this comment over at "too hard".
82730. adelady at 18:55 PM on 13 June 2011
       It's too hard
       batvette "Most humans make their livelihood engaged in one form of human industrial activity or another. Telling people they have to stop living, and it really is that brutally simple, to save the earth... how do you think they'll take that?" Just read the advanced version of this post. You'll notice that it requires quite a bit of ' industrial activity' to achieve the aims. We don't have to stop living, we have to change the way we do things - mostly the same things. We do not have to don sackcloth and live in caves gnawing on uncooked tubers. We can live in carbon neutral homes and work in carbon neutral businesses producing carbon neutral goods or services. With any luck some of those 'neutral' activities will actually be carbon negative - a great boon. What's 'not living' about a properly insulated home serviced by solar PV and an electric powered car- which handily acts as a battery for a distributed power grid? Sure we should be less wasteful with food and no-one needs 100 pairs of shoes nor houses the current size built in Australia. The advertising industry need not die either, they just advertise quality and improved products and lifestyle rather than foolish acquisition of more and more pointless stuff. This 'telling people they have to stop living' silliness is the very worst kind of alarmism.
82731. batvette at 17:11 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       I don't believe the discussion is about comparison of lifestyles between citizens of different regions of the world, though any competant sociologist, geographer, or citizen who can analyze a map, can tell you that the United States and Europe have completely different topographies and urban/suburban living arrangements. Much of which should be evident with the single term "Interstate Highway System" which began originally as the Pershing map in 1921, but was officially implemented as policy by Eisenhauer in the 1950's. (ironically it was his experience with the Autobahn System in Germany in WW2 that caused him to see the benefit of such a system in the US for national defense). As someone who rides a bicycle many more miles a year than I drive a car, I do lament the unfriendly nature of our car culture toward more green transportation. I am realistic enough to understand why it is however. I doubt that we are alone in seeing a culture of conservation replacing a culture of consumption eventually causing economic hardship- surely Europe will see it as well, though it will be less of a shock than it is here. Most humans make their livelyhood engaged in one form of human industrial activity or another. Telling people they have to stop living, and it really is that brutally simple, to save the earth... how do you think they'll take that? To be transparant I am not a contrarian or denier but I'm not 100% sold on the consensus either. Many of us "fencers" speak in percentages, I'm 80/20 that it is warming, 50/50 that it's human caused/could we arrest it with current sociology trends such as the industrialization of India and China. In that respect I think we've already passed that point of no return long ago: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/09/annual_bp_energy_survey/ I would ask why there is not an uproar that it appears the Kyoto protocol was not only ineffective but probably has facilitated this global GGE increase? Something to do with that talk about "climate justice" or "carbon equity"?
82732. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 17:08 PM on 13 June 2011
       Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
       I was able to download the pdf file, thanks for the link. Having suffered and survived (just) record extreme heat during 2009 IMO more attention to extremes is very useful. It's the extremes that get you more than the mean. Home air conditioners often don't work in extreme heat. People don't work either, especially when it's humid as well and your internal body temperature rises too high and you've no way of sweating it out. That's leaving aside the effect on crops, rainfall or lack of, power supplies that give up the ghost along with public transport etc - all of which has happened already in my home state during the heat waves of a couple of years ago. (Under Fig 1 there seems to be a typo - 20th Century when I think they mean 21st Century - if it's not too late to correct.)
82733. Bern at 16:14 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       chris: you're telling us that Christy & Spencer made no less than five significant errors in their analysis, and that every single one 'just happened' to skew the answer towards indicating that the globe was cooling instead of warming? If they were genuine errors, surely you'd expect at least one of them to, perhaps, be on the warm side, rather than the cool. What are the odds of a climate skeptic making five genuine fundamental errors of analysis, with all five favouring their decidedly minority point of view? I guess it could be a sort of self-reinforcement, where they saw the answers that came out, and said to themselves "Hey, those numbers look really good!", rather than "Hey, those numbers are different to what everyone else in the world is getting, maybe we'd better double-check our analysis..."
82734. adelady at 15:39 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       bv "...we have indeed been questioning every bit of our lifestyles..." So how do Europeans manage the same standard of living, including holidays, but produce only half the CO2 emissions of US citizens?
82735. John Cook at 15:32 PM on 13 June 2011
       SkS Weekly Digest #3
       Note: I've just done the programming for the Daily Digest - so at the start of each day (eg - midnight Australia time), we'll start sending out an email summarising the posts from the previous day. So right now, subscribers should start receiving the summary for Sunday (featuring just Dana's post on John Christy). The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, the number of blog posts on SkS seems to be on the rise so getting multiple emails per day was getting a bit much for some subscribers. Secondly (and this was what got me off my butt to do the reprogramming), my webhost complained about me sending out so many emails at one time so I've had to reprogram how the mail-outs function.
82736. batvette at 15:26 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       Tom is there any particular reason you chose to include those last two untasteful comments which were clearly directed at my person, which even preempt any opportunity to offer such evidence? I'm not even sure I want to engage someone who seems to be here not to discuss the principals of this issue but seems so willing to pounce on someone criticizing them. However back to the matter of Michael Mann and the Penn State review board, I don't know either way about Mann's actions, but it jumps out at me that the University itself would have the integrity of its science dept under fire for for allowing Mann to be inbvolved with any impropriety like this and would have every reason to try and protect their own- for this reason an "independent review" is almost always called for, not an "internal review" which is what seems to have been what went down here. I don't think I need to produce evidence to prove common sense now, do I? Neither on that or the economic hardships that have been and will continue as a result of sacrifices made by people in the name of conservation. In case you hadn't noticed, the US handily transformed its economy into a service and consumption based economic model by the turn of the millenium, and we have indeed been questioning every bit of our lifestyles and being told that any unnecessary energy use is going to cause irreperable harm and be a burden upon our children. People aren't going to the movies, they rethink that trip on summer vacation. Are you going to argue this is not one of if not the primary factors why our economy is in such trouble? Are we shocked we were selling a message and people actually may have been listening?
82737. chuckbot at 15:03 PM on 13 June 2011
       Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
       Thanks - I think I am getting distracted by the snowfall; the rectangles highlighting the differences help a lot.
82738. adelady at 14:28 PM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       Norman, your issue with localised extreme effects of what you describe as a "small" increase in average global temperature is nicely illustrated by this other GISS product. Northern latitudes are much, much more affected than the other two regions displayed. The fact that seasonal changes in the Arctic are also pretty drastic is not the point. Is it different from before? If so, is it getting more or less congenial for the plants, animals and people who rely on this region? And about 40 other questions which spring immediately to my mind. Blocking 'patterns'? We've had a couple of incredible consequences of extended blocking events, Pakistan/ Russia obviously. The possibilities are endless. These may be simple exceptional events. They may be related to Arctic melt. Or the first indicators of a new trend. Or an aberration related to an impending extreme La Nina. There is no way - yet - to know which of these or any other explanations may apply. The one thing we do know. A warmer ocean, a warmer atmosphere, more moisture, less ice will combine to produce more unusual weather effects more often. Which particular effects will have more impact in which regions we won't know for certain until the trends or 'patterns' show up in the numbers. My own view is that we have quite enough numbers already, even if we lack the wit to discern some of the patterns clearly. The glacier, Arctic sea ice and ocean acidifcation, heatwave and flood numbers are quite enough for me.
82739. Tom Curtis at 13:48 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       batvette @28, the initial review at Penn State was conducted by the Vice President for Research and Dean of the Graduate School; Associate Dean for Graduate Education and Research, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, and Director of the Office for Research Protections, Research Integrity Officer. In other words, it was an inquiry by Michael Mann's boss, his bosses boss, and the chief ethical officer of the university. Now, unless you are suggesting the unusual idea that a persons boss should never have a role in disciplinary actions with regard to their employees, there could hardly have been more suitable people to make such an inquiry. However, as you are not only suggesting that they are unsuitable, but implying that they are involved in a cover up, perhaps you can present your evidence for what would be professional misconduct on their behalf. You will further notice that on the one matter on which the initial panel made no firm decision, they appointed a five person panel, all of whom where professors and/or heads of departments, and none of whom came from Michael Mann's own department. In other words, they were people who had the necessary knowledge and experience to judge the case but who were by any reasonable standard, independent. Again, your suggestion of a cover up implies professional misconduct by this panel. Do you have any evidence to suggest that professional misconduct - or do you think slanderous allegations require no evidence any time a panel disagrees with you? Finally, you make allegations about the harm being caused by the so far minimal and ineffective action being taken against global warming in Western nations. Babies, apparently, are going hungry because of anti-global warming policies. Frankly, I think that factoid was simply made up. But I'm open to persuasion, show me the evidence of babies being left hungry, indeed starving ("empty bellies") because of anti-AGW policies. In the absence of such evidence (on all three counts), two things will be obvious: 1) Your demand for open access to relevant information is for you a purely tactical demand which you have no wish to comply with yourself; and 2) You think the way to debate is to simply make up "facts" that suite your case.
82740. Norman at 13:46 PM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       Sorry my images did not work. I will send links... GISS January 2011. GISS February 2011. GISS March 2011. GISS April 2011. These links show a drastic change in surface temperature in the arctic regions in a period of 4 months. Was this switch due to the fact the globe has warmed 0.8 C in 100 years and it makes these wild fluctuations or it this just a normal cycle? Given time I could generate a GISS map for every month and look for overall patterns in how temperature moves around and see if blocking patterns that create heat waves in localized areas are a new phenomena that has only started to happen or it is part of the random fluctuations one sees with a temp difference of several degrees from pole to equator.
       Response:

       [DB] "Given time I could generate a GISS map for every month"

       If you do, please do not post them here.  If you have a point (see my response to your previous comment), make it.  Supposing correlations using Eyecrometers without any real analyis is not part of the aegis of this forum.  If that is your wish, please seek a different venue for it.

       Feel free also to write up your point in proper scientific fashion and submit it to a peer-reviewed publication.

82741. scaddenp at 13:46 PM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       Norman, the predictions from the models regarding extremes in flooding etc can be found here. Note especially 10.3.6.1 for the papers on why this is expected.
82742. Norman at 13:35 PM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       adelady, From the graphs it does appear flooding is increasing in Europe. But is that because the globe is warmer? The hypothesis is not a bad one...warmer temperatures over water allow for more evaporation which will fall as more rain, but is that the cause? Today the North pole is just above 32F while in Texas it was 108F a 76F difference. Weather is driven by a natural pattern to balance this difference. Cold air is heavy and dense and will push under the lighter warmer air. This causes the natural circulation for cold northern air to move south and visa versa. It is why the poles do not get so cold as they would in winter (no insolation) or the equator does not get so hot. This huge difference can cause massive temp swings. One day can be 20F above normal and the next few days can be the same temp below normal. Omaha Nebraska June temps with graph to demonstrate temperature extreme fluctuations. This article on the jet stream shows how dips in the stream can cause colder than normal in one area and warmer in adjacent areas" Images from GISS to demonstrate extremes as they move about, mostly look at the Arctic region. Greenland is very warm in January and Siberia is the cold spot, by April the pattern has totally shifted.
       Response:

       [DB] Before I take the time to try and fix your graphs, Norman, what is your point?  The topic of this post is "There's no room for a climate of denial".  Struggling to follow your thread of conversation, I see no real point other than a stance by you that any warming currently happening is part of a natural cycle or "It's not us".  Which are the subjects of different posts.

       Out of deference to adelady and scaddenp, I'll leave this up to give you the chance to reply.

82743. dhogaza at 13:34 PM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       "I notice he publishes quite a bit in Energy and Environment, unlike most climate scientists" Not to mention other scientists, in particular those dealing with environmental issues. How shocking :)
82744. batvette at 13:06 PM on 13 June 2011
       Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
       Re: A Pennsylvania State U. Board clearing Michael Mann of wrongdoing: In other news, A review board of Exxon stockholders and tanker captains has cleared Exxon Valdez captain Joseph Hazelwood of any wrongdoing, adding "environmental damage was minimal, and birds and fish in the region can just "get over" any ill effects and the oil may actually help them fly and swim faster". Facetious, well sure. What else when I'm reading these kind of arguments for a rebuttal? "Professor Jones’s actions were in line with common practice in the climate science community". And told I'm supposed to just forget about it, instead of ask why we aren't looking at the conduct of more of these people? You're asking everyone in an industrialized nation to feel horrible about getting in a car and going to work and earning a living. Whole segments of our economies are based on such things, people are going bankrupt and putting their babies to sleep at night with empty tummies. If these people have misled anyone it should not be swept under the rug.
       Response:

       [DB] If you are implying something untoward, I would remind you of the Comments Policy here at SkS.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

82745. batvette at 12:48 PM on 13 June 2011
       Freedom of Information (FOI) requests were ignored
       I think the "nothing at all to see here" nature of the rebuttal here is disingenuous in light of the objective purity expected and defended of science. The failure to meet FOIA requests is not at all solely based upon judgements by Phil Jones the requests were of a frivolous nature, as if they were all meant to waste their time which would better be spent on research. From the Inquiry by the House of Commons:(from the wiki page on the CRU emails controversy) "The committee criticised a "culture of non-disclosure at CRU" and a general lack of transparency in climate science where scientific papers had usually not included all the data and code used in reconstructions." " The report added that "scientists could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by aggressively publishing all their data instead of worrying about how to stonewall their critics." Stonewall their critics- these included people who wished to see all the data they used, and see if they could find errors in it which invalidated the work. If Jones intended to block this scrutiny, and in in the emails he used language to the effect saying FOIA requesters would only use the data to cast their work in doubt- how does this follow the scientific method or allow checks and balances? It's funny the rebuttal concludes with a statement about the mountain of evidence not being explained away by the behaviour of a few individuals. The inquiry also concluded: "There is no reason why Professor Jones should not resume his post. He was certainly not co-operative with those seeking to get data, but that was true of all the climate scientists". Perhaps they are saying if we could review the emails of all climate change researchers we'd find similar willful obstruction of scrutiny of their work? The behaviour of a few individuals is all we have the luxury of reviewing. Despite a whitewashing and the fact that most of the emails showed nothing and their work may be actually sound, a few of them did reveal intent to taint peer review and withhold data. Those pushing the more urgent position of AGW would do well to not pretend they see nothing, and instead of claim it's science and can't be flawed by human fault, admit science is only as good as the men behind it.
82746. adelady at 11:54 AM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       scaddenp, that SoD item is brilliant! Not so much the post itself (I'm a fully paid up skip-the-equations club member), but the answers to questions in the comments are fantastically clear and straightforward. Anyone wanting to understand the difference between the 'what' of the adiabatic lapse rate and the 'why' of the adiabatic lapse rate can do no better than look at this.
82747. adelady at 11:30 AM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       Thank you for this Norman. I went looking for info from Munich Re and, somehow, got to the general info for the EU. Some great maps, graphs and all sorts of fascinating stuff. Very, very hard to get anything prior to 1970, but have a look at this one giving flood events, and related deaths, since 74. (Don't bother with the 'older versions' link. It doesn't go any further back, the newer versions just add in recent events.)
82748. scaddenp at 11:17 AM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       Just as side-issue, Science of Doom has a piece on Gilbert 2010 published by E&E. This is a real howler which would give some idea about the standards of "peer review" (of denialers by denielers) there.
82749. KR at 11:12 AM on 13 June 2011
       Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
       jonicol - I've noticed that many of the scientifically qualified skeptics (Lindzen, Spencer, and Christy high on that list) will make ridiculous statements in interviews, in opinion pieces, etc. Not in the peer reviewed literature, although Lindzen (with his LC11 paper) appears to be an exception to that. These opinion pieces are not peer reviewed, but acquire status from the reputations of the originators, primary examples of the Argument from Authority fallacy.
82750. Norman at 10:25 AM on 13 June 2011
       There's no room for a climate of denial
       #76 Tom Curtis, Your quote "You, of course, would have us believe that that had nothing to do with the record Sea Surface Temperatures around Australia at the time; and that those record Sea Surface Temperatures had nothing to do with global warming." I would not have you believe any such thing. I do not have enough available information to make any statement one way or the other. I am questioning that global warming is the cause but I am not stating it isn't. I did some research and you may have a good point with your Australia flooding... World record rain events. Rainfall amounts in the 2010-2011 Australian floods. Australian Ocean temp anomaly in 1979. The 1979 Australian temp anomaly for January does so ocean temps about 1 C above normal.

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