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Comments 82751 to 82800:

  1. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 10:21 AM on 13 June 2011
    Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    I've looked more closely and Christy does publish quite a lot. I notice he publishes quite a bit in Energy and Environment, unlike most climate scientists.
  2. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Your point of "confiscation of property of FF investors" seems something of an exaggeration. Until the market begins to adapt, there are no losses. As carbon demand goes down, then so should reinvestment levels, just like I imagine happened to investors in say pagers, or maybe blacksmiths with introduction to auto. Why should FF investors be protected anyway but not those in say fishing, seaside property or any other adversely affected by global warming?
  3. There's no room for a climate of denial
    77 Albatross, I looked at all the abstracts you linked to. Not enough for me to switch my view at this time. I am not closed minded. I like the information you provide and will always consider it. Do you think the links I send are flawed information because they are not in peer reviewed magazines?
  4. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    jonnicol @18, this should help, although I can't help but feel you would have found what you asked for (which may not be what you are looking for) had you followed the numerous links in the article.
  5. There's no room for a climate of denial
    #72 skywatcher, I thank you for the links. The Stu Ostro report was very interesting but very similar to the video Daniel Bailey posted. It takes many extreme events around the world. My problem is I can't find enough data on weather related disasters (on the Net) for 1954 to develop a case. I would probably have to go to the library and dig up microfilm records of papers and magazines of that year...way too time consuming.
  6. Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    Oslo @5, that link only takes me to a reproduction of the first page of the article, ie, the abstract plus one paragraph. Registering with Springer-link seems to make no difference. However, from publicly accessible material: actually thoughtful @4, Diffenbaugh and Scherer used the CMIP3 climate model, and reproduce information from that model in their figures. They may also have used other models. In the graphs linked below they show the modelled (black) and observed (black dashed) probability density function for differences between mean and maximum temperatures in the 1980-1999 period, which should give some idea of empirical fit. WheelsOC @1, from the graphs of the probability density function of regional areas, it is evident that there is far more variability in temperature in mid latitude regions (China, North America, Mediterranian, Southern Africa) than there is in tropical regions (India, S E Asia, Northern South America, Central Africa). This is true in both JJA and DJF. The greater range in temperatures means a greater warming is required before the minimum temperatures consistently exceed the maximum temperatures. Consequently this study is probably consistent with previous studies showing greater mean warming outside the tropics.  
  7. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    It would be nice to see somewhere in this site or on an acceeible link given here, the scientific refutations of the work of Lindzen Spencer and Christy. Nothing above tells us anything at all about the science being criticised. Somewhere, apart from the list of inaccessible papers, there should be a clear review article which other interested scientists who are retired or who no longer have easy access to a science/university library. Statements such as "After hearing Christy make erroneous and political rather than scientific statements on Australian Radio.." only makes the denouncement of his work less plausible. "Political" is difficult to interpret or quantify, but you should be able to substantiate with a few words and/or with reference to an easily accesible detailed, scientific argument, which does not need to be "peer reciewed" since the readers should have enough scientific understanding to judge it, but shows clearly why Christie's scientific statemnts are "erroneous".
    Response:

    [dana1981] This is a summary post.  As Tom Curtis notes in #19, Christy's specific claims are addressed in the posts linked within the article.  Or you could try clicking the Christy Crocks button, which has a tab listing all the posts pertaining to Christy.

  8. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Norman wrote : "what would interest me is mechanisms to explain how a small increase in global temps will lead to extreme climate events (more heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires...). This is the part of the science I am interested in. The forces that make a sustained drought. Texas has a very bad drought condition. How did the 0.8 C degree Global temp increase cause this and sustain it?" Question (and answer) 9 at this link should help you.
  9. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    sout "He doesn't appear to do any research into the forces or impacts on climate." He's a scientist alright. But he seems to be hampered by other concerns so he's not free to go where the evidence should take him. I think of him as a musician sentimentally attached to an instrument which has lost the capacity to change key. He's perfectly capable of playing any piece of music, but he won't, because he refuses to replace or repair the only instrument he's willing to use.
  10. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Eric, US is 2% of earth area. I believe the sky was pointing you to global records.
  11. Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    I have been informed by Stanford (to be precise, Woods Institute for the Environment) that the full report is available online at http://www.springerlink.com/content/l2371617777412kp/ Comments made so far can perhaps be revised after reading the full online article.
  12. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    By the way, I hope CATO and other libertarian groups are loudly in favour the proposals to scrap fossil fuel subsidies. I would have thought subsidies of any kind an anathema to the right but so far that doesnt seem to be the case? (I only support subsidies on education and health). Killing any form of subsidy on fossil fuel is surely the simplest way to start.
  13. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    “I am simply frustrated by your apparent lack of willingness to adapt.” Eric, there is deeper issue here which is why I keep pressing. Firstly, your “adapt” stance appears to imply that you think it is reasonable for you to enjoy the benefits while other people pay the cost? Seriously? The right wing here do a lot of complaining about paying (tax) for other people’s benefit (education/health subsidies) and I doubt it is different in US. So surely the principle of paying for the adaption is acceptable? More importantly, you have stated in later post your reasons for opposition to carbon tax – I am trying to find an alternative to carbon tax which is more acceptable hence I am interested in possibilities that result from (legal) avoidance of liability and how conflict of rights is managed. You have so far avoided these questions. Remember that the hypothetical situation is what is “libertarian way” if convinced that cost of adaption will be higher than cost of mitigation. Denying that it could ever be possible isnt helping. You claim frustration about lack of specifics of cost and effects. Well the scientific consensus (as opposed to the Greenpeace version) on effects of climate change is found in IPCC WG2. Surely it’s perfectly clear there though regarded as excessively conservative by climate scientists. A costing of these effects is in Stern report. The costings have been criticized but I know of no better attempts that didn’t also assume (with no scientific basis) that WG2 was alarmist instead of conservative. One big problem is that this is area of science with least certainty. Policy must be made on imperfect knowledge. “OTOH, I agree the free market is far from perfect.” So do I. What I want is effective solutions. In many situations, a free or near free market provides them. When they don’t I look for alternatives rather than demanding some philosophical purity. How come an imperfect market is acceptable but an imperfect tax isn’t? (Don’t bother with that, I know the answer). Your answer here appears to be that if everyone was as wealthy as you, then there wouldn’t be a problem. (Or hope it is rather "I'm all right Jack, dont bother me"). Can everyone be as wealthy as you? In Bangladesh, population density is 11 per hectare for instance. Does the world have that much resource? It’s easy to create a political narrative using Haiti or other countries as examples – the problem is really ineffective government and overcoming the real barriers to changing that is not a simple task. Saying that a democratic rule of law with free market is the answer is easy – making it happen is not. “So I have to ask you, since your wealth came from the market, why won't you use your wealth to adapt?” I have no choice. What I resent is paying for a problem I have little responsibility for. Responsibility for this problem can be seen here here. “Why won't you promote the economic freedom needed to create that wealth in countries like Bangladesh. If you don't think that is feasible, why won't you give a small portion of your wealth to private relief organizations?” I do both, and not that small a portion either. “we don't talk about the airport anymore”. You are implying that I was overestimating the cost of adaption. The technological and monetary challenge is in fact enormous and I am not sure it would ever be built. Abandonment seems more likely. I pointed that out because fixating on airport rather than transport corridors was inappropriate. This method fixes all three and preserves land. Returning to original inquiry, so far the answer is bleak. It seems that even if we knew emissions would kill us, there is no libertarian way to limit emissions. I am still interested though in exploring the questions of resolving conflict of rights and legal responsibility.
  14. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    Glad you all like my post, the principle issue at stake is climate sensitivity, which from current records is low, as massive climate change has still not happened. Climate sensitivity is only high when, ice albedo is dominant, or when atmospheric albedo is affected by external events. Current CO2 levels of @ 400 ppm mean that sensitivity will remain low until a cataclysmic external input, and effectively means that the current glacial has ended. James Lovelock was right and GAIA is the dominant climate driver. Mad Mike
    Response:

    [dana1981 Wrong.  See Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected.

  15. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    Albatross at 07:47 AM on 12 June, 2011 since you brought up the constrast between the dreary attempts to contrive fault in Mann et al's paleotemperature reconstruction, and the free-ride given to Spencer and Christy despite their 15 years of mis-analysis, it's worth pointing out another interesting contrast between these two. Mann et al's "hockey stick" was really first published in their 1999 paper that included temperature reconstruction back to around 1000 AD. Mann et al were careful to highlight the uncertainties in their analyses as is apparent from their title: Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759-762 Despite the "uncertainties and limitations" Mann et al have turned out to be broadly correct at least as indicated by the subsequent decade of updated analyses with improved methods and data. Christy and Spencer's analysis of tropospheric temperatures was hopelessly incorrect for 15 years and had repeatedly to be corrected by others. The gave no indication that there could be any doubt about the reliability of their analysis as indicated by the title of their main paper: Spencer RW, Christy JR (1990) Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites Science 247, 1558-1562. As we know their "monitoring of global temperature trends" was anything but "precise", and it was horribly inaccurate.
  16. An Interactive History of Climate Science
    If Climatologists could accurately predict the weather a year in advance, then people would have a reason to trust predictions made for 20 or 100 years out. For now, no one has any reason to accept the climate studies.
    Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] climate modelling does not depend on the ability to predict weather, only simulate weather with similar statistical patterns. They are based on Monte Carlo simulation methods, a well established branch of statistics developed for the Manhattan project, and have been successfully used to model a very wide range of complex dynamical systems. Climate is the long term statistical behaviour of the weather. Weather is chaotic and unpredictable, its long term statistical behaviour however is not, and can be predicted with useful skill, see for example Hansens 1988 pojections. The above comment is commonly encountered in discussions about climate models, however it is indicative of a lack of understanding of the way in which climate models operate and of the difference between climate and weather.
  17. An Interactive History of Climate Science
    Two points Aunt Sally: 1. the numbers in the interactive graphic are cumulative. There are only 4 "pro-AGW papers" for 1975 in the graphic. 2. "global warming" and "climate change" are restrictive designators for climate-science related research. If you use a less restrictive designator (e.g. "climate") there are lots of potentially relevant papers from 1975. For example of the 164 hits from a ISI Web of Science search for topic "climate" (year=1975), the following papers are likely to be relevant, and this list is only from the first 40 out of 164 hits: PARAMETERIZATION OF CLIMATE - GLACIER - RELATION Author(s): HOINKES H, STEINACKER R Source: RIVISTA ITALIANA DI GEOFISICA E SCIENZE AFFINI Volume: 1 Pages: 97-104 Supplement: Suppl. I Published: 1975 THEORY OF ENERGY-BALANCE CLIMATE MODELS Author(s): NORTH GR Source: JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Volume: 32 Issue: 11 Pages: 2033-2043 Published: 1975 EFFECTS OF CHANGING SOLAR CONSTANT ON CLIMATE OF A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL Author(s): WETHERALD RT, MANABE S Source: JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Volume: 32 Issue: 11 Pages: 2044-2059 Published: 1975 CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMATE CONFUSION Author(s): SCHNEIDER SH Source: JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Volume: 32 Issue: 11 Pages: 2060-2066 Published: 1975 Title: LONG-TERM CYCLES IN VARIATION OF ATMOSPHERIC RADIOCARBON, RELATED TO CHANGES IN HOLOCENE CLIMATE Author(s): MCFADGEN BG Source: SEARCH Volume: 6 Issue: 11-1 Pages: 509-511 Published: 1975 Times Cited: 1 NONSPHERICAL AEROSOLS AND CLIMATE Author(s): CHYLEK P, COAKLEY JA, GRAMS GW Source: TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION Volume: 56 Issue: 12 Pages: 997-997 Published: 1975 CLOUD PARAMETERS FOR CLIMATE STUDIES Author(s): COAKLEY JA Source: TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION Volume: 56 Issue: 12 Pages: 997-998 Published: 1975 ROLE OF DESERTS ON GLOBAL CLIMATE Author(s): ELLSAESSER HW Source: TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION Volume: 56 Issue: 12 Pages: 998-998 Published: 1975 WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION - HESS,WN Author(s): SEWELL WRD, FOSTER HD Source: HUMAN ECOLOGY Volume: 3 Issue: 4 Pages: 289-291 Published: 1975 CLIMATE OUTLOOK - VARIABLE AND POSSIBLY COOLER Author(s): LANSFORD H Source: SMITHSONIAN Volume: 6 Issue: 8 Pages: 140-& Published: 1975 RECENT SECULAR VARIATIONS IN MID-ATLANTIC WINTER EXTRATROPICAL STORM CLIMATE Author(s): RESIO DT, HAYDEN BP Source: JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume: 14 Issue: 7 Pages: 1223-1234 Published: 1975 CLIMATE RESPONSE AND FLUCTUATION DISSIPATION Author(s): LEITH CE Source: JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Volume: 32 Issue: 10 Pages: 2022-2026 Published: 1975 NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT ON EFFECTS OF REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE Author(s): KOENIG LR Source: JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume: 14 Issue: 6 Pages: 1023-1036 Published: 1975 APPLICATION OF SOIL DUST OPTICAL-PROPERTIES IN ANALYTICAL MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Author(s): RUSSELL PB, GRAMS GW Source: JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume: 14 Issue: 6 Pages: 1037-1043 Published: 1975
  18. Bob Lacatena at 06:00 AM on 13 June 2011
    Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
    54, Chuckbot, Not sure what you're looking at. Here's the most recent view, with the differences focused by the yellow boxes. You'll note that the areas of increased melt are all at lower latitudes around the edges (warmer temps, warmer water). Honestly, at the moment, in my opinion, this year is clearly shaping up to be the worst on record. It could turn on a dime, but right now, my opinion is that without an abrupt stall (as happened last year) we're actually in for the new record low. (I also skipped the area of the Nares Strait, at the upper left corner of Greenland from this perspective. It's not as obvious, but in 2011 you see an empty patch in the strait itself, with green/sparse ice, while in 1980 you see a very small empty patch surrounded by more higher ice concentrations). If you go to Cryosphere Today to see the more detailed image, you can see it better, as well as seeing how much further advanced the melt is just a few days later than the 6/9 images here.
  19. An Interactive History of Climate Science
    Continuing from my previous post... if I do a web of knowledge search for "global warming" or "climate change" in the topic [which is searching (i) Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); (ii) Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI); and (iii) Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI)], I find only 4 peer-reviewed publications for 1975 -- a far cry from the 230 publications for that year that this graphic indicates. Not sure yet why the spectacular discrepancy, but would be interested to year from the creators...
  20. An Interactive History of Climate Science
    This is a wonderful visualization. However... ...I'm a bit "skeptical" about the numbers. Specifically, they don't seem to square very well with the numbers in Peterson (2008) -- as pointed out in severa SkepticalScience posts (see here, for example: http://www.skepticalscience.com/christy-crock-1-1970s-cooling.html). Petereson found a total of 71 peer-reviewed publications on the topic of global warming and climate change in the 15-year period 1965-1979. Yet according to the graphic in this post, the year 1975 alone had 240 publications. Something seems askew...
  21. Eric the Red at 05:45 AM on 13 June 2011
    There's no room for a climate of denial
    Sky, I understand that some people may not accept this as a valid source, but it is tabulated nicely and correlates well with other sources. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes Almost half the state records hgih were set in the 1930s. The last new state record high was set in 1995 (two have been tied since).
  22. Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
    'Notice above how much more ice there was in 1980. The snow data is only present for the past few years.' I keep looking and keep not seeing it - it looks like there is more ice at present? I looked up the comparison again and it looks the same there; perhaps the answer is that the 2011 image displays sea + land ice whereas the 1980 image only displays sea ice? The website writes: 'Historic snow cover data not displayed on these images. ... Snow cover data is displayed only for most recent dates.'
  23. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Norman, With a couple of exceptions, you seem intent on not providing peer-reviewed papers form the scientific literature to support your claims. You, contrary to advice offered to you, continue to cherry-pick and ignore the sage advice of some here. You posts are a perfect example of someone who is in denial about the severity of the situation we face should we continue along this path. And you fail to recognize that paleo data is one of the major reasons climate scientists are concerned about what we are doing and where we are headed, rather than a reason fro complacency or to fuel denial. In fact, with respect, you have your logic backwards, and your attempt to justify the reason for no concern amounts to nothing more than a form of argumentum ad absurdum. Read the IPCC AR4 they have extensive sections on past climate, yet they understand that we are in for a bunch of hurt should we continue along this path. Also, do not forget that the global population will be near 10 billion later this century, so climate disruption will likely exert an even greater toll than it would have centuries ago when people had the ability to move. Here is a lists of some recent papers on extreme rainfall from the literature, available links here: "Wentz et al. (2007, Nature): "Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades." Zhang et al. (2007, Nature): "We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics. The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel." Lau et al. (2008, JGR-A) Allan et al. (2010, Env. Res. Letters): "Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations." Allan and Soden (2008, Science): "We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated." New et al. (2001, IJC): "Data from a number of countries provide evidence of increased intensity of daily precipitation, generally manifested through increased frequency of wet days and an increased proportion of total precipitation occurring during the heaviest events. Over most land areas there has also been an increase in the persistence of wet spells."" Also, from here, "Lenderink and Meijgaard (2008, Nature): "Here, we analyse a 99-year record of hourly precipitation observations from De Bilt, the Netherlands, and find that one-hour precipitation extremes increase twice as fast with rising temperatures as expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation when daily mean temperatures exceed 12 °C"
  24. actually thoughtful at 04:10 AM on 13 June 2011
    Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    I would like to understand which models they are using that show such good correlation with empirical data - this is always a point of contention amongst skeptics, that models are not accurate. Which models did this team rely on and how good was the fit?
  25. History Matters: Carbon Emissions in Context
    Eliminating the use of carbon fuels should be the goal of any country's effort to stop manmade global warming. Thus, Australia should spend 100% of its "global warming" money in the search for new energy sources that will eliminate the need for carbon energy. If not 100% then what about 50%? Ironically, this isn't happening and will never happen, will it? It's intuitively obvious that taxing the use of carbon fuels is the way to go... especially when there's no alternative full time energy available... Right? WRONG! Money should never be spent on any CO2 reduction scheme unless and until taxpayers are informed of the quantifiable benefit that would result. Ironically, this isn't happening and will never happen, will it? As a taxpayer, a person of modest means, why should you be OK with this?
  26. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    "A strong jet stream is required." Upper or low-level jet or both? And not necessarily. You are clearly talking through your hat Norman. You might want to wander over to Desmogblog where I have been in a technical discussion with someone who claims to be in the know about these things. Regardless, the experts agree that trend now and in the future in tornadoes are hard to pin down, mostly on account of the poor nature of the data and changing building codes, and monitoring platforms etc. What we do have confidence in is that extreme precipitation events and severe thunderstorm events are likely to increase in certain areas as low-level moisture increases (see Desmogblog post for papers). In fact, extreme rainfall events are already on the increase.
  27. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 03:48 AM on 13 June 2011
    The Critical Decade - Part 3: Implications for Emissions Reductions
    I understand the point that it's not too late yet. However, given the economic growth rates in developing countries and community expectations that goes with that, it's difficult to conceive of them being able to cut emissions and maintain civil order. Even in developed countries where carbon emissions aren't increasing to the same extent (but still increasing) it will be very difficult politically to stabilise let alone reduce emissions. I remain hopeful but not optimistic. And I'm generally an optimist. I see very difficult times ahead for the world as a whole.
  28. Geologists and climate change denial
    I've met geologists who use their knowledge of the past to state the bleeding obvious: "The climate has always changed". My standard response is that "Indeed it has, but the last time, there was not a civilisation in the way"! Denier geologists who use this argument are particularly math-challenged. It's not just climate change that's the issue; it's the *rate* of change that poses the biggest challenges. Using denier geologist logic, I could argue that driving your car into a tree at 60 mph is no problem. After all, cars have decelerated from 60 to 0 with no harm to the passengers countless times in the past. Therefore, only auto safety alarmists would argue that folks shouldn't drive their cars into trees at 60 mph.
  29. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 03:30 AM on 13 June 2011
    Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    After hearing Christy make erroneous and political rather than scientific statements on Australian Radio, and seeing his performance at US House Committee hearings, I figure that he's not really a climate scientist as such and doesn't care about his scientific reputation (he must have tenure and not be ambitious professionally I suppose). Does he do anything other than convert satellite readings into temperature equivalents (and has even got that badly wrong in the past from what I read)? His articles in google scholar suggest not much. He doesn't appear to do any research into the forces or impacts on climate. But happy to be corrected.
  30. Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    I have notified Stanford that the article is now online, and I have invited them to participate with comments. I can't promise anything as I have not been in direct contact with Diffenbaugh or Scherer.
  31. Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    If it has not already done so, I recommend that SkS inform both Diffenbaugh and Scherer that this article has been posted and invite them to participate in this discussion.
  32. Forecast: Permanently Hotter Summers in 20-60 years
    According to both the climate model analysis and the historical weather data, the tropics are heating up the fastest.
    This is for summer temperatures, right? I'd thought that overall the poles were going to be warming faster. So we should see the poles warming faster on the whole, but summer temperatures climbing faster in the tropics, correct?
  33. Eric (skeptic) at 00:53 AM on 13 June 2011
    Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Tom, my reef solution is not simple and there are some unknowns. However you could help your case by pointing out a potential adverse secondary effect of cooling upstream water via cloud formation. I honestly can't think of any adverse effects. I don't think I would have any problem taking full ownership of the reef and providing for its protection using just resources of the reef (provided there were unbiased government measurements of reef health, no unreasonable restrictions on tourism, etc) On your points 2 and 3, we would have an endless debate with absolutely no relevance to CC mitigation. On point 4, it seems to me that no regulation is needed at all, just a carbon tax. For example, if my plastic spoon factory produces spoons that are cheap and always disposed of, but the ones from your factory are heavy duty and reusable, you would be creating higher value product with just a little more use of carbon. An increasing carbon tax would force both our prices higher with the inevitable result that people would switch to your spoons and reuse them. Compare that to "regulation". Would plastic spoons simply be banned? Or more to the point, can a regulatory scenario create a better market than the one I just described? That raises the carbon tax issue. Scaddenp is very interested in determining if there are ways to approach mitigation that mesh with libertarian principles. I have two problems with the carbon tax, first that it confiscates the property of the fossil fuel investors. That problem should be solvable. The bigger issue is the distortion of the market that creates boom/bust cycles and artificial shortages and gluts of various inputs leading to black markets and other inefficient markets. It seems inconceivable that there would be a glut of alternative energy but it has happened in wind and will happen in solar until there are better storage techniques and a smarter grid. The artificial shortages is a much bigger problem. One reason I brought up Haiti was that a lot of their problems are due to the inability to purchase cooking gas. In this case it is obvious that a wealthier society would not have to cut down all their trees for cook fire charcoal. In my own state the artificial shortages of reasonably priced heating fuels in the winter of 2009/10 created a gray market for propane in small containers normally used for barbecues. Those were unsafely hooked up by homeowners who were cut off by the propane company (couldn't pay their bills) or used with unapproved heaters indoors (lacking a low oxygen automatic shutoff). This was just a very small sampling of what will happen in the economic downturn from malinvestment (the bust after the boom) and the carbon tax itself, will be unable to afford the luxury of protecting the environment (or their own health and safety). I don't have a solution for external costs for scaddenp, nor a solution to the problems created by the carbon tax. I can only repeat what I said before which is that the wealth of the society is what leads to the ability to control external costs. Tom, you would probably argue that the unloading of external costs is what leads to the (illegitimate) wealth. I would point out that those external costs are far in the future and much smaller than some have estimated ("we don't talk about the airport anymore").
  34. Geologists and climate change denial
    Sorry I missed this post the other day, John. As a geologist with a background in minerals, I'm familiar with the subject. Yes there are denialists who are also geologists, but apart from the fact they are geologists they typically fit into the classic denier frame in demographic terms. The latter is more relevant. I've met geologists who use their knowledge of the past to state the bleeding obvious: "The climate has always changed". My standard response is that "Indeed it has, but the last time, there was not a civilisation in the way"! Cheers - John
  35. David Horton at 18:44 PM on 12 June 2011
    Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    Thank goodness madmike has come to set us all straight. I must admit that for at least the last decade and a half I had been a bit worried, what with all those scientists and their research and analysis and warnings, but now, for the first time in 15 years I can turn the light out and have a good sound sleep and its all thanks to mike. Where has he been all these worrying years, that is the question, where oh where has he been?
  36. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Dawei I don't know about anywhere else, but I doubt if anyone wearing the shirt in the UK is going to have a problem, unless of course you attend an denier/skeptic event or are actively campaigning for reductions in carbon emissions.
  37. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    Eric (skeptic) @448: 1) Your solution to reef protection was "blown off" by pointing out that the proposer of the method you advocated indicated that it would have wide spread and potentially adverse secondary effects whereas you just blithely asserted that it would not. When challenged on this point, you just changed the subject. In other words, when faced with principled and evidence based objections, you had nothing beyond your mere assertion to back up your opinions. 2) It is tendentious and false to classify the free market as it works in any western nation, or in international trade as a "libertarian free market". The "free market" is in fact heavily regulated even in the United States, and justifiably so because grim experience shows that an unregulated market produces the satanic mills of Victorian England and impoverished labour with no safety measures in primary production. 3) The false claim that the "free market" is libertarian itself sets up a false dichotomy. It has been proven in economic theory that a market in which there is perfect competition, in which everbody knows the consequences of their every transaction (perfect information), in which nobody will be worse of if they undertake a particular transaction (no coercion, so long as coercion is also understood to include coercion by circumstance), in which there are no large disparities of wealth, and in which there are no negative externalities will produce an ideal distribution of resources. Economists have a technical name for a market meeting those conditions. They call it a "free market". It can also be demonstrated that any market that does not meet all those conditions will inevitably produce suboptimal distributions of resources. It is transparently obvious that not one of those conditions is actually met in real life. Therefore an unrestrained market must produce suboptimal resource distribution. It of course does not automatically follow that a regulated market will perform better, but where regulation is specifically tailored to make the unrestrained market to operate more like a free market, such regulation has a high probability of improving the distribution of resources relative to the unrestrained market. Consequently, the choice we face is not that between a free market and a command economy. It is the choice between a regulated market and an unrestrained market, and while the former will consistently raise the wealth of all participants, the latter has been proven time and again to be harmfull the to interests of the poor and disenfranchised members of society. 4) Bringing this somewhat back on topic, the choice we face then is not whether to regulate a carbon market. Failing to do so will transparently impoverish low-emitters to the short term benefit of high-emitters. In the long term, even the high emitters will be impoverished, but they act irrationally in this regard because of imperfect knowledge. Therefore, in this case a regulated market can certainly be a better approximation of the ideal of a "free market" (where "free market" is the economists technical, not the libertarian term of art which trades on confusion between the two). The question is, therefore, not whether we should regulate, but which form of regulation most closely approximates a free market at the lowest regulatory cost (ie, administrative cost, cost in distorting the market, and cost in corruption).
  38. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Norman @69: "Last 100 years of some major floods in the United Stats By decade: 1900-1901 6 major floods 1910-1919 4 " " 1920-1929 3 " " 1930-1939 6 " " 1940-1849 2 " " 1950-1959 3 " " 1960-1969 8 " " 1970-1979 8 " " 1980-1989 6 " " 1990-1999 14 " " 2000-2010 16 " " So if I understand this correctly, from data that only shows six of less major floods in cool decades, and only shows ten or more major floods in the most recent, and very warm decades, you have concluded that temperature has no bearing on the likelihood of a major flood. I could make a similar point from the Australian data where, for example, the Queensland record for flood affected area was set in March of 2010, with an affected area equal in size to Texas (Victoria for an Australian comparison) only to be smashed in January 2011 with a flood effected extent larger in area than Texas plus California (equal to Victoria plus New South Wales for Australians), while concurrently Victoria was experiencing its worst ever floods both in area affected and record breaking as to depth in most locations flooded. You, of course, would have us believe that that had nothing to do with the record Sea Surface Temperatures around Australia at the time; and that those record Sea Surface Temperatures had nothing to do with global warming.
  39. There's no room for a climate of denial
    #70 Norman "... what would interest me is mechanisms to explain how a small increase in global temps will lead to extreme climate events ..." Won't answer this just now. Have to clear the decks. Firstly, you omitted a word here. "a small increase in _average_ global temps". Having got the average notion straight, you really need to think about what 'small' means in terms of an average global temperature change. Sure it's small in relation to day/night, summer/winter, but is it small in terms of climate? Do you know how many degrees cooler it was in average global temperature for a full-blown ice age? Or how many degrees warmer it was when the ice went away? Is 0.8 warmer in a few decades an insignificant, or small, or noteworthy, or a significant step in the journey to such a change?
  40. Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
    KR - I would ask for indulgence in continuing this discussion. It is my opinion that current suggestions for limiting CO2 offend libertarian sensibilities and predisposes otherwise intelligent people towards denial. I am extremely interested to see if there is any approach to mitigation that might not offend those with libertarian values. I do not believe you can change a person's fundamental values and it is futile to try. Environmentalists screaming that AGW shows that capitalism is fatally flawed and must be replaced are doing more damage than good. I want to see debate about right wing versus left wing solutions rather a thinly-veiled grinding of political axes just promoting denial.
  41. There's no room for a climate of denial
    "I would not be interested in statistical analysis of extreme weather to show an increase and then link this to AGW theory, what would interest me is mechanisms to explain how a small increase in global temps will lead to extreme climate events (more heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires...). This is the part of the science I am interested in" No, you're not interested in "this part of the science". Physics (drop this stupid "AGW theory crap", the CO2 could come from God deciding to fart rather than our burning fossil fuels) predict greater chances of drought and extreme precipitation due to warming. ""I would not be interested in statistical analysis of extreme weather to show an increase and then link this to AGW theory" So what you're saying is that if atmospheric physics predicts X, you're not interested in statistical analysis to see if X is true. 'fraidy cat ...
  42. There's no room for a climate of denial
    "How many consensus views in the Medical field have been overturned?" Far fewer after medicine became dominated by science (kicking and complaining all the way, of course). Consensus views of "experts" in their field have been overturned and wrong. Mostly by scientists like Galileo supporting the observations and explanations of Copernicus against the Church, science overturning much of medical silliness (still ongoing, look how many people believe that distilled water (homeopathy) can cure cancer and everything?) Take care with your own goals, dude.
  43. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    I do congratulate madmike on all the effort he's put into his blog ... He appears to be a perpetual typing machine, thus he's the very embodiment of the falsehood of the 2nd law of thermodynamics.
  44. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    "My interpretation of the above graph indicates that at current CO2 levels of 400 ppm a climate sensitivity λ of 0.2°C/(Wm−2) is indicated resulting in a temperature rise of only 0.8°C for a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere." Good for you, Mike! You really are mad ... and I'm so happy that, unlike most denialists, you self-identify and admit it!
  45. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    madmike - I'm not really sure how to respond to that. Thanks for sharing your opinion, I guess? You seem to provide no explanation whatsoever for your conclusions, which don't match the paleoclimate data. But if you want to discuss climate sensitivity, I suggest either Christy Crock #6 or 'climate sensitivity is low'.
  46. Geologists and climate change denial
    truckmonkey - try looking up "faint young sun". As to others, they were answered in models thread but it appears you seem determined not believe the evidence there. That weather is chaotic is obvious. Likewise the fact we have seasons for starters should tell you that energy balance has chaos on a string as does the evidence that climate responds the applied forcing rather than in some random way. If you are determined to ignore evidence, then there is little further to be said.
  47. Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
    I have called my next paper Analysing the Earth as a Simple Machine, and have come to the following conclusions. http://madmikedavies.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/five_myr_climate_change.png My interpretation of the above graph indicates that at current CO2 levels of 400 ppm a climate sensitivity λ of 0.2°C/(Wm−2) is indicated resulting in a temperature rise of only 0.8°C for a doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. This gives a predicted variation Tmax of 2 °C over each subsequent Milankovich cycle for a predicted CO2 value of 560 ppm. Furthermore a further doubling of CO2 to 1120 ppm would further decrease the sensitivity such that additional CO2 forcing is likely to be in the order of <0.5 °C. this gives a predicted total milankovitch cycle variation of <2.5 °C for a quadrupling of CO2. http://madmikedavies.wordpress.com/2011/05/20/climate-sensitivity-and-forcing-2-a-re-evaluation-of-the-ipcc-position/
  48. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Norman, take note of the increases in extremes of temperature and precipitation, but a couple of quick papers for your perusal: Sterl et al 2011: " When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?", just published in GRL. Diffenbaugh et al 2005: "Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change", in PNAS. Stu Ostro has some speculations about a link between extreme weather and warming in this long (and large) presentation. What's interesting is the connections made between strong blocking events and extremes. We're moving well beyond wondering if extremes are going to increase: we're observing them increase, and there are many papers postulating explanations as to why. To think that the extremes are not on the increase would put someone in a clear position of denial. Given the observations of increased extreme events, like the European heatwaves of 2003, 2006 and 2010, or any number of severe flooding events (Pakistan, Australia, Brazil, Sri Lanka, USA, NZ), we obviously have a climate that is not responding by gently nudging the maxima up by fractions. The meteorological expression of climate change is proving complex and often unexpected, and there is room for many hypotheses about how the atmosphere is responding to increased heat, water vapour and reduced ice cover, but so far the responses have been obviously not 'slight'... to think so would put you in denial of the news headlines.
  49. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Daniel Bailey, I did find this interesting article compiled about year 2000 extreme weather events. Very similar to your 2010 video. Not a video version but a text one but it does suggest my point. Look at some year, pick all the worst weather related disasters you can find and say this is proof of global warming and we are in for some severe problems. Well this was 10 years ago, has it gotten worse in that time period? 2010 seems very similar to 2000.
  50. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Albatross, I did have one more page of interest (compiled by NOAA if you trust this source). New Mexico precipitation patterns over 2000 years. Question to you Albatross. You rely on experts to direct your thinking about future climate events. That is okay, expert opinions can certainly be valid. I would not be interested in statistical analysis of extreme weather to show an increase and then link this to AGW theory, what would interest me is mechanisms to explain how a small increase in global temps will lead to extreme climate events (more heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires...). This is the part of the science I am interested in. The forces that make a sustained drought. Texas has a very bad drought condition. How did the 0.8 C degree Global temp increase cause this and sustain it?

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