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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 83051 to 83100:

  1. Climate sensitivity is low
    "basically if there is some large negative feedback which makes the sensitivity too low, it would have prevented the planet from transitioning from ice ages to interglacial periods" Doesn't the above assume that the negative feedback is linearly related to T? Is that a safe assumption if so?
  2. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Whatever you do, I strongly prefer the 10x10 over the 5.882x17; especially if the goal is effective messaging to the non-committed public. IMO, I'd like to see the SS.com go to the back, which would free up space to drop the 2 grey and 1 red guys onto their own lines with an explanation ("undecided" and "skeptical"). If you aren't going to explain them, make 'em the same color (grey). Mark USA PS When can we see a shirt with Dana's awesome Observed vs IPCC CO2 graph?
  3. Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
    okatiniko @44, the Northern Hemisphere summer is warmer than the Southern Hemisphere summer despite greater insolation in the SH summer because the ocean has a much greater thermal inertia than does land. Because there is more land than water in the NH, and the reverse in the SH, it takes longer for the SH to approach the equilibrium temperature than does the NH. If insolation where held constant in a SH Summer Solstice conditions, the resulting global temperature would be significantly higher than if the same where done for the NH winter Solstice. In contrast with the seasonal variation, the temperature fluctuations between glacial and interglacial are sufficiently slow that treating temperatures as having approached equilibrium for the level of forcing is a reasonable approximation. Consequently Hansen's method of determining climate sensitivity is valid for that data, but would be invalid if applied to seasonal data where such a presumption is straight forwardly false. So far as I can tell, your entire argument against Hansen's sensitivity calculation is based on the invalid analogy between centenial and seasonal temperature variations. To the extent that is true, you have no valid criticism of Hansen. If it is not true, surely you can repost your argument without appeal to that invalid comparison as a distraction.
  4. There's no room for a climate of denial
    OK Norman, @ 46, of the top of your head list the natural disasters of 1954. And also note how many of them where record breaking and near record breaking events. The reason I ask you for the list of the top of your head is that, unless this sort of information is common knowledge, so that it can reasonably be listed "of the top of your head", then it is not relevant as to why people are deniers. If you can't list the events of the top of your head, but think there have been two years comparable to 2010 and 2011 (todate) for natural disasters, by all means discuss those years, but under a more appropriate topic.
  5. Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
    Hi all, The SEARCH predictions have now been published. Follow the link @33 if interested. @37 Daniel, looking at the PIOMAS graph, between September 2006 and Sep 2007, sea ice volume fell from 10,000 cubic km to 6,000, a fall of 4,000. In September 2010, ice volume was at 4,000 cubic km. If the melt this year is at the same rate as 2007, that leaves nothing: 4,000 - 4,000 = 0 Also, I have a hunch that the Woodgate paper is part of a broader trend that exaggerates the importance of Pacific waters in Arctic melt, for the following reasons: 1. More English language research is conducted in US and Canadian waters, for obvious reasons; 2. The new sexy topic of ENSO has a huge effect on US weather patterns, but actually, with the Bering Strait being so narrow, has much less effect than the boring old Atlantic currents such as the Gulf Stream; 3. A lot of attention has been paid to 2007; but 2007 was an anomaly, which was related to a strong El Nino. I personally hold that the Arctic is being melted primarily by the influx of consistently warmer water of Atlantic origin; and I suspect that research on the Atlantic side is less well funded, often published in languages that I don't understand and, in the case of Cyrillic texts at least, subject to strong political pressure.
  6. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    How do we know that the system is limited purely by the nature of its positive feedback? I'm trying to understand how the possibility of negative feedback being a limiting factor has been disregarded? There is a theory that the increasing levels of water vapour in the atmosphere due to increased temperatures might greatly increase cloud cover, increasing the earth's reflectance, reducing heat absorbtion into the system. As far as I know, the question of what the impact of increased atmospheric water vapour has on cloud formation and, therefore, albedo is still very open? So I wonder whether it isn't premature to assume that the system is self-limiting due solely to the reason given above? Particularly as the methane release issue casts further doubt on the idea that the system is self-limiting, without some other unconsidered factor coming into play. Thoughts?
  7. What's in a Name?
    I'd like to re-visit this thread. If the "science" in question is the science of climatology, then I understand the distinction between the two terms just fine. If the "science" in question is on the human cognition side (communications, politics, psychology) then I believe the peer reviewed literature has other interesting things to say about these terms. For example, in the USA the views of those who self-identify with the democratic political party are reportedly much less affected by the choice of terms (global warming vs climate change) than those who self-identify with the republican party. See "It's All in a Name: 'Global Warming' Vs. 'Climate Change'" @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/03/110308173242.htm After visiting that article (or the underlying paper) please look at the end of this blog post again, where Dana discusses Luntz' memo and the concept of fear. That reminded me of other recent research comparing neurological responses of conservatives and liberals. See "Political Views Are Reflected in Brain Structure" @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110407121337.htm I suggest that another response to "the myth" is to focus on who "they" refers to. Climate scientists have not changed the term within their purview. Social scientists did, or at least attempted to, within theirs. Those trying to perpetuate the myth are mixing apples and oranges. These studies suggest that on the social science side, there's value to talking "climate change" instead of "global warming", but of course that would come at the price of reinforcing or perpetuating the myth with respect to climatologists. Mark (USA)
  8. Eric the Red at 21:58 PM on 10 June 2011
    Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
    Sphaerica, The issue of lower cliamte sensitivity in past eras has less to do with the physical properties of CO2, than in the biological and chemical reactions which increased removed of CO2 from teh atmosphere. Here is one paper that demonstrates that occurrance (note a specific climate sensitivity is not given, but can be presumed). http://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/idclark/courses/Veizer%20Nature%202001.pdf
  9. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    Hi Rob, how about "seaweed". My point is that labeling a critical and normal component of reef ecosystems "slime" to telegraph a message of a yucky, unwanted protoplasm is not exactly helpful or scientific. And yes, a few misguided coral reef scientists subjectively refer to "slime" on reefs, but they are referring to microbes not seaweed/algae. Regarding the extreme pH values, indeed, they make up a small amount of the total measured, but are the driving force of the extant community state. Same with climate change; eg, it is the very rare extreme high values that cause coral bleaching, so it would be misleading to look at mean temp and relate that to reef state. Ill dig up the papers on the extreme values at some of the world's CO2 bubblers.
  10. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    Of interest to this topic: SAHFOS page on acidification, and paper linked therein.
  11. There's no room for a climate of denial
    DB and Albatross, Thanks for the explanation. But in the issue of denial as related to DB video, my point was that if you took all the extreme weather of a particualar year, say 1954, could you create a similar video about how extreme things are? Albatross, this thread is asking why so many doubt AGW's dire predictions. By bringing up historical data it may help to explain this. Climate scientists may be well aware of severe weather events of the past but the creator of the DB video link may not be so fully aware.
  12. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    I think the top design (10x10) looks more logical and pleasing to the eye (proportionally), and immediately presents the message graphically. Although maybe the text would be a little less bold, so that the design stands out more - but that would just be nit-picking ! It would be nice to see a design using the 10 Temperature Records, or one with the various 'hockey-sticks' - the Hockey Team ? And what about the penguin and the seedling...
  13. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Like the T-Shirt - I suspect these clever people would like it to, have a watch... http://www.thelancet.com/climate-change Clear concise and to the point by individuals who are qualified and have genuine experience and are therefore considered experts ergo they qualified to perform risk analysis for us.
  14. Impacts of a melting cryosphere – ice loss around the world
    In the top link @#20, half the agrument put is the 5% rise in the proportion of winter-maximum multi-year ice since 2009 as per the NSIDC graphic. What the NSIDC graphic fails to show is the decline in Ice Extent over the same period. Multi-Year ice in sq km has not risen much if at all. Yes, I do rather dislike those NSIDC multi-year ice graphics.
  15. ScaredAmoeba at 18:40 PM on 10 June 2011
    Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
    Monckton is appearing at the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies Inc., the peak industry representative body for mineral exploration and mining companies in Australia. AMEC Convention. Perth WA 28-30 June 2011 www.amecconvention.com.au http://amec.org.au/wp-content/uploads/AMEC0031_WEB.pdf
  16. Can we trust climate models?
    trunkmonkey actually the term THC is less general than MOC. The latter doeas not specify one particular physical mechanism thus including wind and tidal drivers. Apart from this, they are commonly used interchangeably and even though the term "meridional" may cause some misunderstanding, as you're showing, it does not mean in any way that it includes just the atlantic latitudinal motion. But maybe we should get back on topic.
  17. zacharyshahan at 17:51 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    bcs the visual impact, i think, is key -- & it's very easy to miss that with the top one (i did at first)
  18. zacharyshahan at 17:50 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    i definitely vote for the bottom (original?) one!
  19. Rob Painting at 17:49 PM on 10 June 2011
    Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    Norman @ 6 - in addition to the advice you have received above, note that the rate of CO2 increase is important to global ocean pH. In the past, increases in atmospheric CO2 have often happened over much longer timescales than is currently taking place (thousands, or tens of thousands of years vs hundreds), therefore silicate weathering, is able to buffer the extra CO2 dissolved into the oceans. The boost in alkalinity provided by silicate weathering is able to offset much of the acidification if the rise in CO2 is slow enough, because the weathering process operates on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. An additional consideration is, if the process happens slowly enough, the extra CO2 is able to be distributed to the deep ocean, offsetting the effects of acidity in surface waters. What is happening today is that humans are adding so much CO2 to the atmosphere, so fast, that the natural buffering processes, and circulation to deeper waters, cannot keep up. CO2 is building up in the surface ocean; causing pH to fall rapidly. The oceans have not been this acidic for at least 20 million years, probably much longer, and the rate of decline in ocean pH is probably unprecedented. Hope this helps. We'll have some posts touching on this within the next month.
  20. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    As an invisible sks supporter I recently had a T-shirt made with the "indicators of warming" graphic on it. Underneath it has the question "what are we doing?" and the sks web address. It was a one off, it is a bit busy, but hopefully is good advertising and the question forces people to think.
  21. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    In my preceding comment, "I take that to mean that the corals that synthesize calcium carbonate (CaCO3) evolved during the last 25 million years." should have been "I take that to mean that the corals that synthesize enough calcium carbonate (CaCO3) to build reefs evolved during the last 25 million years" since the NOAA article further says, "Although all corals secrete CaCO3, not all are reef builders. Some corals, such as Fungia sp., are solitary and have single polyps that can grow as large as 25 cm in diameter. Other coral species are incapable of producing sufficient quantities of CaCO3 to form reefs."
  22. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    What about shelled zooplankton, coccolithophores? Aren't they a major carbon sink, which acidification could threaten?
  23. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    Norman, The NOAA information page says, "Appearing as solitary forms in the fossil record more than 400 million years ago, corals are extremely ancient animals that evolved into modern reef-building forms over the last 25 million years." I take that to mean that the corals that synthesize calcium carbonate (CaCO3) evolved during the last 25 million years. Now look at the CO2 level in your graph, as of 25 million years ago. It was already lower than at any earlier time in the past 500 million years. Putting these together, it appears to me that, while solitary corals were alive during the high CO2 levels, the _modern reef-building, (CaCO3)-synthesizing_ forms did not evolve (nor have lived) during especially high CO2 conditions, according to the graph you present.
  24. Geologists and climate change denial
    As a "hard rock" geologist with interests in mineral deposits (and mineral carbon sequestration), I find this meme extremely tedious. Yes, some geologists are in denial about AGW, so are some physicists, electrical engineers, doctors, etc. Get over it. Also, the notion that geologists are lacking in the basic sciences and math depends on where they have gone to university. In the US, most geology majors are required to take a year each of calculus, chemistry and physics. That is unfortunately not true here in New Zealand.
  25. Geologists and climate change denial
    As long as we are all coming out :) I hold qualifications in geology and geophysics. To be honest I haven't worked in the field for a good ten years having moved back to a real life with kids and family in a big city. Anyway to cut a long story short as a former geologist I have been surprised at the number of my fellow "geologists" on the denial side of the argument. I admit when I first heard of GW I thought I had heard it all before but when I took time to read the work going on into GW I quickly came around to the consensus view. This is where I find it hard to understand why "geologists" would doubt the science. For me anyway knowing the earth's history better than most helped me better understand the difference between past events and what is occurring today.
  26. Can we trust climate models?
    Riccardo The common notion of MOC was developed in the Atlantic where the Gulf Stream was identified long ago, and slowly evolved into the concept of a large convection cell extending through both hemispheres along a meridion somewhat west of Greenwich. I think in the 1960's people began to realize that this was part of a larger thermohaline circulation, but the details were vague. When the benthic foram and ice core data came on line people noticed that when Greenland was colder during DO events, Antarctica was warmer. This led to the idea that the MOC and inded the THC were hemispheric temperature balancing mechanisms with the Geenland-Antarctic axis criical to the overall circulation. A large literature is devoted to how MOC may have been shut down or restricted during Bond events and when vast glacial lakes suddenly dumped fresh water ino the nordic sinking area. I believe that THC differs from MOC in three important ways: The Atlantic is not the most important axis and the overall circulation is driven by the Antarctic beltway. The circulation loops in the Pacific and Indian oceans move in the opposite direction from the Atlantic. The most important axis of THC is lattitudnal rather than longitudinal (meridional); that is, it serves to balance the ocean basins rather than the hemispheres. There, you see? I can be one of those math challenged arm waving geologists!
  27. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Great site I have been reading for a long time but never posted. I like the shirt and cup but how long until the "deniers" claim this site is on the take. Raking in the cash from cup and shirt sales. :)
    Response:

    [DB] It's just a pittance compared to the vast billions in government grant money siphoned into our Swiss bank accounts, er, um...  /snark.

  28. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    How does the 97% compare to other science disagreements? And is there a summary of what the other 3% think is happening? I assume that 100% of climate scientists agree that global warming is occurring?
  29. Geologists and climate change denial
    While well outside my expertise, I'd happily comment on CA stuff - if he published it. That is the way scientific conversations are held. Whether he has a good point or not about Tiljander or not, I dont know, but it wont affect the science unless he publishes. His past behaviour on CA does not endear him to me, and his lack of publishing suggests his motives are political not scientific. On the other aspects, keep up the good work.
  30. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    I reckon a "Hockey Stick League" t-shirt would be a winner. Temperature, Atmospheric CO2, Human CO2, net forcing, and some 'inverse' hockey sticks for, say, arctic ice, permafrost, oxygen, CO2 isotope ratios, etc where available. The more the merrier, arranged on a grid, highlighting the many lines of evidence. Very tempted to pick up one of those mugs. I kind of like both versions. The second is more informative (due to the clearer graphic), but the first has more impact.
  31. There's no room for a climate of denial
    Norman, Before you whine too much, this is a science site. As you will note many posters direct readers to peer-reviewed articles in reputable journals or articles written by reputable scientists or statisticians-- not political blogs like WUWT or NIPCC, or some obscure blog. If you want to discuss extremes and your belief that they are not on the uptake, then on the appropriate thread on extremes point people to the reputable, peer-reviewed literature that supports your case. Using the argument that we have nothing to worry about b/c in 18blah there was a monumental storm somewhere is just another form of denying the reality of what the data and best science are telling us. It is also offensive because climate scientists are, of course, very well aware of that severe weather events have occurred in the past. Finally, your reasoning also misses the point entirely, AGW is very much about how we decide to define where we are heading down the road because of how much CO2 we elect to pump into the atmosphere. There is no denying that.
  32. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Nice job John :)
  33. gallopingcamel at 14:42 PM on 10 June 2011
    Geologists and climate change denial
    scaddenp @54, Clearly you read my post before DB snipped it. While I have enjoyed our discussions (I bow respectfully to a worthy opponent), recently it feels like ( - Moderation Complaints snipped - ) You won't see me again on this site. If you miss me, why not drop in on "Brave New Climate", "tAV", "Digging in the Clay" or "Musings of the Chiefio". My Parthian shot. As Ronald Reagan said to Jimmy Carter, "There you go again". You made a personal attack on Steve McIntyre rather than address his point about the inversion of the Tiljander data: ( - Off-topic link snipped - ) I will read your rebuttal with interest although I will not reply, thus giving you the satisfaction of having the last word. For more than 30 years I have been working to improve the environment, starting with cleaning up the river Thames in the late 1970s. We are on the same side even though we may differ on issues relating to CO2. Here are some links that cover my personal views. I would appreciate your comments if you have the time: http://morcombe.net/Senate/Spruyt1.doc http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/05/15/solar-power-in-florida/
    Response:

    [DB] First of all, your original comment was deleted due to being off-topic (and NOT by me). 

    Secondly, complaining about moderation when the very act of posting a comment on this site is an acceptance of any needed moderation is a certain invitation for yet more moderation. 

    Thirdly, this site's moderation offers up a venue for some of the best science-based dialogue available on the internet (bar none), as many participants here will attest.

  34. Geologists and climate change denial
    David Horton: Over at WUWT the other day someone pointed out that science is apolitical, but scientists aren't (which is correct as far as it goes). They can't seem to see the irony of saying this on a site that is all about attacking the scientists and not the science. I'm still working up the courage to ask my best friend, who works for a state geological survey, if he doubts AGW - he studies palaeo with me, but is now in charge of state support of mining exploration. I guess it would confirm that a link with primary industries taints your view of the science that could impact your sector.
  35. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    It won't be worth trying to mail the items halfway round the world.
    Has Australia recently drifted further away from NZ? My receipt definitely comes from CafePress.com.au, and the postage rate certainly suggested it was local!
    Response: [JC] Hmm, I ordered from Brisbane and my receipt came from cafepress.com - but the shipping was only $5 so that seems local. And it turns out there is an Australian version at http://www.cafepress.com.au/skepticalscience. I'm not 100% sure of how international shipping works and the CafePress site isn't that helpful in explaining.
  36. Impacts of a melting cryosphere – ice loss around the world
    For entertainment purposes only: Arctic ice decline stopped 5 years ago. Most of the Thick Ice Was Lost Between 1988 and 1996.
    Response:

    [DB] Fixed link.

  37. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Who do I talk to to get access to the graphics so we can have the T's and mugs printed in NZ? It won't be worth trying to mail the items halfway round the world.
  38. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    In true Skeptical Science spirit you also add the peer reviewed reference in tiny print at the bottom of the shirt :) (Doran et al 2009 and Anderegg et al 2010) I prefer the later design. It is more aesthetic, the infograph gets more impact by being fully visable, which in turn prompts the viewer to read the words above it.
    Response: [JC] Add the peer-reviewed references? The shirt isn't geeky enough already?! :-)
  39. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    It does raise the question about the 3% of climate experts that don't agree! What are they uncertain about? Have they spotted a piece of blue sky in the climate jigsaw that's incorrectly placed or something that will bring the whole climate house of cards down? Or did they get their qualifications of the back of a corn flakes packet?
    Response: [JC] To be precise, the Doran 2009 paper finds 1% are skeptics, 2% are undecided.
  40. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Yeah, but it's only 97% of scientists who wear t-shirts while they drink coffee ... Just teasing ... but it wouldn't surprise me to see that counter-argument show up at WUWT!
  41. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Shouldn't you be wearing that as a tattoo?
  42. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    I must agree with bill about the larger print of the first design giving the message more clearly - especially on the coffee mug. The mug is probably what I'll buy since wearing that T-shirt arount my workplace would lead to the 'beaten up in the schoolyard' scenario.
  43. Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Curse you and your organic cotton offering - now I'll have to be right on and buy the more expensive one! As a sometime graphic-designer I'd have to say the big text and square format works better and will have much greater impact at a distance, which is a good thing, given what some reactions may well be like! Ah, the conversations I shall have on the train... There could certainly be a case for the text above and the square 10 x 10 graphic, but see above! Hope you sell a truckload - will there be a Parliamentary edition of these, too? ;-)
  44. Ocean acidification: Some Winners, Many Losers
    Norman, changes to carbonate compensation depth is actually part of the tools for determining past atmosphere. Shallow reef corals all but went extinct during PETM and we are now increasing CO2 at rate nearly 10 times faster than this event. Read up on CCD.
  45. There's no room for a climate of denial
    DB are you the monitor for this thread? I did reread the comments policy and do not see why my two deleted posts were found lacking.
    Response:

    [DB] This thread is an examination of denial and the psychological forces that drive it (as you have previously acknowledged in your comment at 27 above).

    Your first deleted comment was a Gish Gallop on various weather anomalies, which is far outside of the scope of this thread, as you well know.

    Your second deleted comment was nothing more than a complaint about moderation.

    Please do try and consider the topic of the threads you are placing comments on and ensure your comments are in compliance with the Comments Policy which you have read and are also on-topic.

  46. David Horton at 13:38 PM on 10 June 2011
    Geologists and climate change denial
    Ginckgo - that is very encouraging to hear. I'm sure there is a division between the hard rock people and the others; and there is of course no reason why geologists shouldn't contain the whole political spectrum among their ranks just as other disciplines do (there are certainly, for example, right wing biologists, whose political attitudes greatly influence their approach to conservation matters, a not unrelated topic). It is just a pity that the media, and politicians, take the views of "scientists" to climate change as if these are generic, no matter what the actual discipline involved nor the political mindset and affiliations, as if Carter (for example) speaks with a pure clear voice on climate change. Mind you it suits them to do it, which is why Alan Jones, for example, chooses geologists, not climate scientists, to talk about the subject. I think it has also taken a long time for those of us who are scientists to realise that political matters do impinge strongly on the way some of us present science. Perhaps we were naive to think that science would be uniquely free from this. if so, the climate change "debate" and its significance for the planet, has shaken that naivety away.
  47. actually thoughtful at 13:36 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    "97% of all climate experts agree we're causing global warming." goes on the back. I NEED an edit button around here!
  48. actually thoughtful at 13:35 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Shoot! Just realized you have 17 scientists per row in the original graphic. If it is 100 - can't we have the words on top and 5 rows of 20 - or the top graphic (10/10) and the words on the back? That would be the BEST EVER! It would also be really, really cool to juxtapose the following two statements: 15% of Americans know this (on the front, with the graphic) 97% of all climate experts agree we're causing global warming. I actually like that even better than the "BEST EVER" idea above. It creates a little mystery when you look at the front of the shirt. It becomes a conversation starter. It also works if you swap the text front to back. Still a conversation starter.
  49. Margaret Morgan at 13:25 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    Brilliant, thanks! Shall put this on my birthday prezzie wish-list.
  50. actually thoughtful at 13:23 PM on 10 June 2011
    Climate Consensus on a T-shirt
    The 2nd/original is MUCH better. I spent a while trying to find the graphic on the 1st on this page. I shall be purchasing. Hopefully you get some money out of the deal.

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