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William24205 at 02:26 AM on 4 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
I don't dismiss predictions and opinions.
I am however a great believer in evidence, especially hard evidence .
It is difficult to discuss matters with someone who ignores evidence because it does not fit their pre conceived opinion and biases.
If you say t will rain tomorrow -and I say it will not - and we both agree to a bet on it.
And it did not rain - you can't say I think it will rain nest week therefore i was right - and I am not paying you.
This is the basic tactic of climate alarmist - they keep being proved wrong - so they move the timelines. - the new timeline are wrong - so they move them again - and so on and so on.It is why people still say Thomas Malthus was right. One can never win with them - because they just say somethimng that is unfalsifiable .
It is like someone saying - prove there are no UFO
And btw – it is not just one metric deaths – there has been no increase in economic damage in real terms, no increase in droughts, floods, land burned by bushfires, famine , migration from hot places to cold. None of these ( despite 40 years of predictions ) have occurred – but yes you will be able to find new predictions – and maybe in your book – that means they have occurred.
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jimsteele24224 at 02:19 AM on 4 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Eclectic, LOL What are you talking about saying " Jim ~ you would lose all scientific credibility if you assert that the so-called greenhouse effect does not exist."
But truth is I have never denied the greenhouse effect. Your allegations are typical of alarmists trying to denigrate skeptics. Every skeptic I know totally understands the greenhouse effect and are grateful for its warming effect. The question is how much does further increased CO2 cause further warming and is that beneficial or not.
Your second funny is telling me not to get distracted by the details of the actual mechanisms of the ocean is warming, simply because you believe ,without ever substantiating, that there are equilibrium points that are unaffected by those proven dynamics.
Please educate yourself Eclectic.
Moderator Response:[BL] Contents snipped - off-topic.
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jimsteele24224 at 02:05 AM on 4 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
I would also take issue with SkepticalScience claiming Polar bears are in danger of extinction as well as many other species.
Polar bears are believed to be affected by reduced sea ice because their main prey, the ringed seal, remains in the Arctic all year and they give birth to their pups on the ice where they are very vulnerable to the bears.
• There are 2 types of sea ice. Land-fast ice and pack-ice. Unlike fast-ice, pack ice is mobile. When winds cause pack ice to collide with the shore or other ice slabs, the pack ice thickens as ice slabs are pushed on top of each other. Thick pack ice doesn’t melt completely in the summer. However, shifting winds can blow thick pack ice out of the Arctic, as happened in the 1990s9.
• Ringed seals depend on fast-ice. Thin fast-ice naturally melts completely by July, and then re-forms starting in October.To breathe, ringed seals must create breathing holes by head-butting through any newly forming thin ice. Then gnawing and clawing at the ice as it thickens, keeps their breathing holes open throughout the winter. Multi-year pack ice is too thick for seals to create breathing holes.
• Ringed seals mostly give birth to their pups on land fast-ice in March and April. Pups remain on the ice while nursing and then molting in June. Land-fast ice is thickest during the seals reproduction cycle and remains until late June. Seals then abandon the ice to hunt in open water starting in July and only crawl out on ice unpredictably to bask in the sun for a few hours. Melting ice after July has no effect on how available the seal pups are to bears.
• Polar bears gain almost all of their body fat in the late spring and early summer from feeding on baby ringed seals. In contrast, all bears lose weight during the winter when there is the greatest amount of ice. Feasting on baby seals from March thru June determines if the bears will survive the winter. Unlike feasting on baby seals, any feeding on ice or land after June is purely opportunistic. Pregnant females enter hibernation just as ice begins to reform and emerge only as ringed seals are giving birth
• Ringed Seal are so abundant they are considered a Species of Least Concern, so Arctic climate change does not appear to have had a negative effect.
• More open water from July to September increases sunlight reaching phytoplankton, generating greater photosynthesis and a more productive Arctic Ocean.3 Increased photosynthesis improves the whole Arctic food chain, eventually increasing fish populations that ringed seals depend upon. More ringed seals provide more food for polar bears.
• Since hunting polar bears was restricted, polar bear populations have increased.Moderator Response:[BL] Contents snipped - off topic.
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jimsteele24224 at 01:56 AM on 4 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Loblaw, You have said absolutely nothing to refute the science I preented here. Instead you try to eflect and redirect the issue. Not a very scientific approach. I will await your refutation here.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:39 AM on 4 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William:
It is clear that you cannot look beyond one statistic about historical patterns.
I value the opinion of the authors of a study much more than I value your opinion about it.
Your dismissal of any predictions whatsoever (except, it would seem, your own opinions) shows a state of denial of anything scientific. It makes me wonder how you can get out of bed in the morning, since it is impossible for you to predict whether or not the floor will support you.
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William24205 at 00:09 AM on 4 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
nigelj
At what point - would you start to not trust a climate alarmist - if deaths continue to fall or not rise for another 40 years - would you think maybe we should not trust those who make these predictions and fuel the narrative. Or do they just get a forever pass - and you will always accept more predictions - even though the people and movements who made them before have always been wrong.
I think people just want to believe things will be terrible and there are primed believe end of days narratives.
Yes - anything could happen in the future and deaths and damage levels could rise again- but it is nor healthy to ignore the present - or trust people that wilfully distort it.
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William24205 at 23:49 PM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
BOB
This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
Rather typical you have when presented with a fact, come back with someone's opinion and a prediction.
You can't disprove a fact with a new prediction. As I said before - we could have this conversation in 40-years’ time, and you or other alarmists would still answer a fact with a prediction.Nothing that occurred matters. Evidence is always dismissed with evidence of a prediction.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:27 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Gentlemen:
The proper place to be carrying on this discussion about ocean heating is on this thread:
https://skepticalscience.com/How-Increasing-Carbon-Dioxide-Heats-The-Ocean.html
Yes, the original post in that link is from 2011, but it is still open for comments.
Scaddenp is correct in pointing out (in comment 70 here) that jimsteele is regurgitating debunked myths from more than a decade ago. Jimsteele: please actually read the appropriate post and comments before you start repeating yourself.
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John ONeill at 21:30 PM on 3 April 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
The grids with the lowest emissions worldwide are not those with the deregulated power markets that came in first under Pinochet in Chile, then in the UK under Thatcher, and subsequently mostly from about 1995 -2004 in parts of the US, Europe and in Australia (1998 under Max Bradford in New Zealand.) Those have not demonstrated the capability to grow capacity, and slash emissions, that will be needed if we want a real transition. For most of the last forty years, in first world countries, demand was static, and the market system only acted to replace existing capacity, not cover expanding uses. (Nor did it give the lowered prices promised when the reforms were introduced.) The lowest emissions are mostly in areas with large, government-run entities, using either hydro - Hydro Quebec and BC Hydro in Canada, Electrobras in Brazil, Statkraft in Norway - or hydro and nuclear - Electricite de France, Ontario Power Generation, Vattenfall in Sweden. Governments can supply the 'patient money', from superannuation funds, needed for long-term energy projects. Private companies, with management usually only staying in the job a few years, pay more attention to quarterly earnings than is needed for projects that will span many generations. A reactor takes years, and a lot of work, to bring online, but once done nothing compares for abundant clean power.
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Eclectic at 15:33 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jimsteele @83 :
Certainly the ocean skin surface is the gateway through which heat enters & leaves the ocean. (Other than the large flux of solar radiation which penetrates deeply into the ocean ~ we scuba divers can definitely see that occurring ! )
But as I mentioned above, the skin surface dynamics do not disturb the long-term equilibrium of energies, over the course of days and years. Surely that is obvious to you. Please do not confuse & distract yourself with the ephemeral fluctuations in the surface few microns of oceanic water.
Also ~ do not distract yourself with thinking about the different heat fluxes in the tropic / temperate / and polar zones of the planet. Those zones have their own long-term equilibrium positions, and their existence (and fluctuations) won't change the medium-term equilibrium of the total planet.
Second ~ please educate yourself about the paleo history of Earth . . . and its "iceball" phases. Yes, the paleo evidence indicates low armospheric CO2 produces "iceball" oceanic freezing. In addition to that evidence, the basic physics of Earth's planetary orbital distance and the incident solar radiation on Earth . . . indicate that the Earth's oceans would become meters-deep in ice, if the atmospheric "greenhouse" effect were to disappear.
Jim ~ you would lose all scientific credibility if you assert that the so-called greenhouse effect does not exist. Please step back from the brink . . . and reconsider your position.
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jimsteele24224 at 13:43 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Eclectic, First the skin surface dynamics are essential. The skin surface is the only layer from which heat can leave the ocean.
Second It is your narrative that grossly incomplete! You make a totally unsubstantiated assertion that without CO2 the oceans would freeze. You totally ignore solar heating. However the heat flux into the ocean primarily happens due to tropical solar heating in the eastern oceans, where La Nina like conditions reduce cloud cover and increase solar heating. The ocean sub surface can trap heat but the skin surface cannot.
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Eclectic at 12:57 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jimsteele @81 :
Thank you ~ but the analysis is still incomplete. Possibly some semantic obfuscation or confusion is impeding the basic physical picture.
Over a 24 hour cycle or 365 day cycle, the interesting variations in the topmost few microns of ocean are unimportant. What is important is the overall flux of energy into & out of the ocean ~ for that is what maintains the ocean's temperature structure (stratification) and long-term heat content. And the ocean is responsible for a large slice of the atmosphere's heat content & stratification (indirectly). It goes both ways.
Remove CO2 and the lesser greenhouse gasses . . . and the ocean temperature would decrease . . . and the surface few microns would be ice (and the deeper ocean would freeze as well).
Ergo ~ and in straightforward language ~ it can be accurately said that CO2 has a major effect in warming the planetary ocean.
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jimsteele24224 at 12:26 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Eclectic to be more complete
First understand, CO2 infrared only penetrates a few microns depth compared to solar heating that warms the sub-surface for several meters depth, creating the diurnal warm layer
Second, the ocean’s skin layer is the only layer where heat can ventilate from the ocean. Absorbed solar heat creates a temperature gradient where conduction moves heat from the diurnal warm layer up towards the skin surface and out to the atmosphere. 98% of the time the ocean heats the atmosphere. The atmosphere does not heat the ocean.
The skin surface is always the coolest layer because as soon as any downward infrared from greenhouse gases heats the skin surface, the skin surface radiates that heat away as the laws of physics dictate! Furthermore, any heating of the skin surface increases evaporation and promotes evaporative cooling. And finally the skin surface heat is conducted away by the atmosphere. Thus even at night after most solar heat has been ventilaated, the skin surface is cooler than subsurface layers.
Measurements show the skin surface radiates away infrared from the combined inputs of solar heating that rises to the skin surface and infrared heating absorbed in the skin surface. The skin surface cannot trap heat. However subsurface layers trap heat because of the time delay of that heat reaching the skin surface to ventilate. Furthermore, heat is trapped in the ocean where ever solar heated subsurface layers are overlain by fresher water that suppresses convection.
To better understand this dynamic watch or read: Science of Solar Ponds Challenges the Climate Crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl3_YQ_Vufo&t=17s -
jimsteele24224 at 12:21 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Eclectic, you missed something basic in physics and in logic ?
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Eclectic at 12:13 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jimsteele @76 :
You have answered incompletely. Have I missed something basic in physics or in logic ? e.g. ~
Solar shortwave radiation -> ocean
ocean heat -> atmosphere by molecular vibration and by IR radiation
atmospheric heat -> ocean (predominantly by molecular vibration, but a small component of IR radiation too)
CO2 -> greenhouse effect -> lower atmosphere warming [lapse rate]
Ergo, CO2 provides a large (but indirect) amount of ocean warming.
?
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jimsteele24224 at 12:05 PM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Hi John,
Warming the surface stratifies the oceans' upper layers. Turbulent mixing mostly increases the cooling effect by bringing warmer subsurface water to the skin surface. The ocean's mixed layer deepens in the winter as the upper layer cools.
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John Mason at 11:30 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jim, what about turbulent mixing?
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jimsteele24224 at 11:20 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Hi Eclectic, No you are wrong to claim "In summary ; the ocean receives heat predominantly from light energy and from conduction from the atmosphere."
Conduction is negigible if at all.
The diurnal warm layer created by greater subsurface heating from the sun creates heat conduction out of the ocean and towards the skinlayer which is the only layer from which heat can leave the ocean.
Once infrared heats the ocean's couple of micron thick skin surface, the warmer surface begins emitting infrared and cools the skin surface. Basic physics! Heating the skin surface also increases evaporative cooling and 98% of the time the atmosphere is warmed by contact with the ocean's skin surface. Basic physics does not indicate CO2 infrared can heat the ocean.
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jimsteele24224 at 11:15 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
scaddenp SCIENCE OF DOOM had many accurate posts but regards heating the ocean he/she failed miserably. So I ould appreciate hearing your understanding, instead of pawning the issue off to someone else.
He first presented the idea of conduction as important for OC2 heating with "Once you establish a temperature difference you inevitably get heat transfer by conduction"
Indeed, the diurnal warm layer created by greater subsurfac heating by the sun created heat conduction towards the skinlayer which is the only layer from which heat can leave the ocean.
Once infrared heats the ocean's coup;le of micron skin surface, the warmer surface begins emitting infrared and cools the skin surface. Basic physics! Heating the skin surface also increases evaporative cooling and 98% of the time the atmosphere is warmed by contact with the ocean's skin surface. Basic physics does not indicate CO2 infrared can heat the ocean.
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Eclectic at 11:02 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jimsteele : help me understand your position.
m
At the most basic level :- solar radiation at visible wavelengths does penetrate 10's of meters into the ocean. (As a scuba diver, I can vouch for this.)
At other wavelengths, into the infrared & longer, there is shallow or deep penetration, but the actual penetration flux is tiny in comparison to the visible light. (That includes the infrared flux radiated from CO2 in the lowermost few meters of atmosphere.)
Then we have a large flux of energy (both out of and into the ocean) from molecular vibrations at the ocean/air interface ~ vibrations of molecules of water / water vapor / nitrogen / and oxygen. I have not chased down the magnitude of such flux into and out of the ocean ~ but presumably that magnitude is huge.
In summary ; the ocean receives heat predominantly from light energy and from conduction from the atmosphere. CO2 molecules have only a very tiny direct ocean-warming effect ~ but arguably a huge indirect warming effect through CO2's action as a greenhouse gas warming the planet's atmosphere.
Have I understood that correctly ?
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scaddenp at 10:04 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Jim, the myth that backradiation cant warm the ocean. I freely admit the author of Science of Doom knows more about this than I do, so I suggest you take it up with him if find the argument unconvincing.
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jimsteele24224 at 08:01 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
LOL you say "I havent heard that myth for a decade or so" Exactly what myth are you insinuating???
You seem unable to distinguish solar irradiance vs solar insolation!?Clouds provide a huge determination of solar insolation but not irradiance . Please explain your viewpoint. Otherwise it appears you dont know what you are talking about!
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jimsteele24224 at 07:50 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
scaddenp: I am unsure why you claim "On interannual and to some extent the decadal scales, variations in surface temperature are strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere heat exchange, but I think you would agree that the increasing OHC rules that out as cause of global warming?"
rn
Why?
rn
Most studies I have reviewed, find that most heat flux(98%) leaves the oean and warms the air. I trust the Argo data that the oceans have slightly warmed, but Argo does not determine attribution.
rn
It has been well established that the tropics absorbs more heat locally than it ventilates. And that outside the tropics more heat is ventilated than is absorbed. Because CO2 infrared never penetrates deeper than a few microns compared to deep solar heating, I argue solar heating of the oceans drives atmoispheric warming.
rn
I addressed this in https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771957182407536940
rn
rn
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scaddenp at 07:44 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
jimsteele - well I havent heard that myth for a decade or so. So solar output isnt increasing but solar heating is?? I suggest that go over to Science of Doom who dealt with subject exhaustively in 2010. (4 parts in the end) If that doesnt convince you then I wont waste my time.
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jimsteele24224 at 07:15 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
scaddenp: I am unsure why you claim "On interannual and to some extent the decadal scales, variations in surface temperature are strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere heat exchange, but I think you would agree that the increasing OHC rules that out as cause of global warming?"
Why?
Most studies I have reviewed, find that most heat flux(98%) leaves the oean and warms the air. I trust the Argo data that the oceans have slightly warmed, but Argo does not determine attribution.
It has been well established that the tropics absorbs more heat locally than it ventilates. And that outside the tropics more heat is ventilated than is absorbed. Because CO2 infrared never penetrates deeper than a few microns compared to deep solar heating, I argue solar heating of the oceans drives atmoispheric warming.
I addressed this in https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771957182407536940
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scaddenp at 06:38 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Two dog. The OHC content data in red comes from the Argo array. You can find reasonable description here. The old pentadecadal data is ship-based and has much bigger error bars. I cant immediately find the paper that determined the accuracy of the Argo data but if interested I am sure I dig it out.
On interannual and to some extent the decadal scales, variations in surface temperature are strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere heat exchange, but I think you would agree that the increasing OHC rules that out as cause of global warming?"I did also read that the warming effect of CO2 decreases as its concentration increases so the warming is expected to reduce over time. Is there any truth in that?"
Sort of - there is a square law. If radiation increase from 200-400 is say 4W/m2, then you have to increase from CO2 from 400 to 800ppm to get 8W/m2. However, that doesnt translate directly into "warming" because of feedbacks. Water vapour is powerful greenhouse gas and its concentration in the atmosphere is directly related to temperature. Also as temperature rises, albedo from ice decreases so less radiation is reflected back. Worse, over century level scales, all that ocean heat reduces the ability of the ocean to absorb CO2. From memory, half of emissions are currently being absorbed there. Hot enough and the oceans de-gas. These are the calculation which have to go into those climate models.
Which brings us to natural sources. Geothermal heat and waste heat are insignificant so would you agree that the only natural source of that extra heat would be the sun? Now impact of sun on temperature has multiple components that climate models take into account. These are:
1/ variations in energy emitted from the sun.
2/ screening by aerosols (natural or manmade). Important in 20th century variations you see.
3/ changes in albedo (especially ice and high cloud)
4/ The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.Now climate scientist would say that changes to all of those can account for all past natural climate change using known physics. They would also say very high confidence that 1/ to 3/ are not a significant part of current climate change (you can see the exact amount for each calculated in the IPCC report). Why are they confident? If you were climate scientist investigating those factors, what would you want to measure to investigate there effects? Seriously, think about that and how you might do such investigations.
Is it possible there is something we dont understand at play? Of course, but there is no evidence for other factors. You can explain past and present climate change with known figures so trying to invoke the unknown seems to be clutching at straws.
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jimsteele24224 at 06:07 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
A Netherlands journalist, Maarten Keulemans, tried to denigrate Climate the Movie: The Cold Truth in about 50 tweets using much of the same arguments posted to here on SkepticalScience. I successfully debunked all of his arguments in 16 tweets (originally I intended 20) listed below, and so I was just honored with being interviewed for a Dutch TV segment regards how the Climate the Movie promotes vital scientific debate. Too often alarmists try to suppress debate with weak arguments or denigrating the opposition as deniers. However I doubt alarmists can refute any of my arguments, but I will gladly entertain your arguments.
1 Denigrating the Climate Reconstruction graph by Ljungqvist https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771929435366940908…
2 Keulemans' Medieval Warm Period lie https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771933673488789868…
3 Contamination of Instrumental by Urbanization https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771939656504062260…
4 The Best USA temperature Statistic! https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771947116631580724…
5 Ocean Warming Facts https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771957182407536940…
6 US Heat Waves https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771963700951527487…
7 It is the Sun Stupid! https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771977013576024282…
8 Alarmists know better than Nobel Prize Winners ! https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1771987039631921454…
9 Wildfires: Liar Liar Keulemans' Pants on Fire https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1772000151596572844…
10 The Dangers of CO2 Sequestration and CO2 Starvation https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1772016867265380795
11 Models Running Hot! Keulemans Disgraceful attack on the most honest Dr John Christy! https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1772081300884852829…
12 Keulemans’ Blustering Hurricane Fears
https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/177231995704247929813. Dishonestly Defining Natural Climate Factors
https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/177339544386473605814. Denying Antarctica’s Lack of Warming
https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/177347348163795775815. Misinformation on CO2’s Role in Warming Interglacials during our Ice Age.
https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/177377731392429721016. Science journalists vs grifting propagandists – Antarctica
https://twitter.com/JimSteeleSkepti/status/1774428539858907444 -
nigelj at 05:38 AM on 3 April 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Two Dog @65. All that additional heat energy accumulating in the oceans has to come from somewhere. Possible candidates are anthropogenic warming, increased solar activity, and an increase in sub sea geothermal or volcanic activity.
Scientists have ruled out solar forcing and geothermal or volcanic activity. It's really hard for me to see where else that quantitiy of energy could come from if not those three possibilities. Just waving your hands and saying there may be something else isnt remotely convincing to me. Its just so implausible and such a vanishingly small possibility and so unlikely.
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nigelj at 05:20 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William said (paraphrasing) that the mortality rate from natural disasters has fallen over the last 100 years. The implication being why worry about global warming because death rate will continue to fall. I think its a deluded view for the following reasons.
I would assume the mortality rate has fallen because of improvements in prevention, technology, rescue services and healthcare. However this has been in the context of a reasonably stable climate until the last couple of decades. I would be concerned that as warming increases heatwaves, floods and crop failures could escalate and mean improvements in healthcare etc,etc cant keep up and the mortality rate increases. This would be especially in tropical zones that get hit hardest by climate change but have the weakest economies.
It should also be noted that as more people are made sick by increasing numbers of natural disasters like heatwaves, this requires resources to treat them that could be spent elsewhere. So its incredibly naeive to focus just on the mortality rate.
We cant stop volcanic eruptions or tidal waves and we just go into overdrive to save lives even although it uses massive resources. But we can do someting about anthropogenic climate change and thus avoid needing to put more resources than otherwise into healthcare and other rescue services.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:09 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
lchinitz @ 32:
Fossil fuels look a lot cheaper than they should, because of externalities.
Energy transition considers how costs will change. Production by renewables is already cheaper in may cases; storage to cover lulls is still an issue.
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nigelj at 05:00 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
The claim is made that global warming is not a problem because cold is far deadlier than heatwaves. It is misguided and simplistic. This commentary explains why and adds to Bob Loblows post. Excerpts:
Heat-related deaths will rise 257% by 2050 because of climate change. Number of heat-related deaths projected to increase in UK as temperature rise, with elderly people most at risk
Researchers wanted to try to determine the effect that climate change will have on temperature-related deaths in the coming decades. Their study, published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, examined fluctuations in weather patterns and death rates between 1993 and 2006 to characterise the associations between temperature and mortality. (Emphasis mine. The study uses solid evidence.)
The researchers, from Public Health England (PHE) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, then looked at projected population and climate increases so they could estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK in coming decades.
Heat-related deaths will rise 257% by 2050 because of climate change. Number of heat-related deaths projected to increase in UK as temperature rise, with elderly people most at risk.
Researchers noted a 2.1% increase in the number of deaths for every 1C rise in the mercury and a 2% increase in mortality for every 1C drop in temperature. The number of hot weather days is projected to rise steeply, tripling by 2080, they said. Meanwhile the number of cold days is expected to fall, though at a less dramatic pace.
At present there are around 41,000 winter-related deaths and 2,000 excess summer deaths.
The authors predicted that without adaptation, the number of heat-related deaths will increase by 66% in the 2020s, 257% by the 2050s and 535% by the 2080s. Cold weather-related deaths will increase by 3% in the 2020s, then decrease by 2% in the 2050s and by 12% in the 2080s, they added.
This means by 2080 there will be around 12,500 heat-related deaths and 36,500 cold-related deaths.
The authors said that the burden of extreme weather remains such higher in those over the age of 75, particularly in the over-85s....
(So the conclusion is the increase in the mortaility rate of heat related deaths is higher than the decrease in mortaility rate from warmer winters)
www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/04/heat-related-deaths-climate-change
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Bob Loblaw at 04:41 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William @ 30:
No, I do not agree that deaths are "the most important" thing. And I do not agree that past trends in deaths present evidence that there will not be many deaths in the future. If I had to be on future causes of deaths related to climate change, I'd put it on massive failures of agriculture (which we are already seeing the early signs of), massive migrations of people fleeing lands that can no longer support them (they are not going to just roll over and die - they'll be showing up in your back yard), and massive instability in our economies and society as people try to adapt to the new conditions.
...and before people start dying, there can be an awful lot of pain and suffering.
As for your questions about:
- with disasters not increasing
- You again equate disasters with death. There is lots of evidence that disaster costs are increasing.
- deaths at an all-time low
- You base this conclusion on a single newspaper report.
- and fewer people dying from direct weather deaths and crop yields at their current improved rate.
- Agriculture is already being affected negatively. And it will get worse.
Your idea that the IPCC doesn't think we have a problem is so far from what they say. (Unless, of course, your only metric is deaths so far.)
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lchinitz at 04:32 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Bob Loblaw @29, and WIlliam @27,
I am probably doing a poor job at describing what I am trying to describe. I am not trying to compare the Covid crisis with the climate crisis. I am aware of the differences.
I was just using the quote from Collins to illustrate that policymakers can, based on their policy goals, ignore certain things which later (upon reflection) they might wish they had not ignored. And I'm just wondering if we could get that out of the way in the climate conversation. William @26 is basically using that argument. He says "Cheap reliable energy has massively improved human well-being. We ignore that our peril." Meaning that in the climate change contenxt we are proposing to address climate change in such a way that we will affect the availability of cheap, reliable energy.
Now, I don't agree with that, but that's not the point. The point is that it's an argument to be considered. As I said, personally I think that the risks are highly asymmetric, so if we were able to quantify the "peril" he mentions, it would be far less than the peril of NOT taking action. But it would be great to have numbers there. That is, show that we are NOT ignoring that at our peril. That we have looked to the best of our ability, and we believe that there is a bigger peril to deal with.
Maybe it's not possible, though. Even the fact that I can't explain it to this group is discouraging me. I see a glimmer of what I'm trying to say in this piece from NPR.
"It's kickstarting the government doing this," said Margaret Walls, Director of the Climate Risks and Impacts Program at Resources for the Future, a Washington research group. But, she continued, "it's imperfect."
Walls said she would like to see the government include the climate costs of safety net programs, such as unemployment insurance, in future versions.
Maybe I'll look into this "Resources for the Future" to see if anything like what I'm asking for has been done, or even considered.
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Bob Loblaw at 04:25 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William @ 24:
You refernce a newspaper story from 2015. The actual study is probably this one:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0
Have you read the actual study? (The Lancet copy is paywalled, but Google Scholar will find free versions.)
The RealClimate post I linked to (and you chose to ignore) is newer, and written by an expert in the field (not a journalist). And it looks at more than one study, including a more recent one (2017) written by many of the same authors as the one your newspaper story mentions.
In that newer study, their interpretation is:
This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
So, the authors of that study do not seem to share your "nothing to worry about" point of view.
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William24205 at 04:19 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Bob -
You continue to ignore "the fact" that deaths are not the only thing that contributes to an emergency or disaster.
Not the only thing - but surely the most important?Getting rid of fossil fuels could cause untold damage"
Do you not think there is a risk in getting rid of fossil fuels ?There is high confidence that the changes predicted by climate science are very likely
What are these changes ? What are the effects ? Yes , it very likely will be warmer - but what are the effects ? The IPPC does not think they will be very significant , they don't say millions will die - and that there will be more weather disasters.
I would like to ask you one question>
If we carried on as we are - with disasters not increasing , deaths at an all-time low and fewer people dying from direct weather deaths and crop yields at their current improved rate.
Would you admit the " crisis was overblown?
Or is it just a crisis because it is - regardless of what the outcome is? -
Bob Loblaw at 04:01 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
lchinitz @23:
I don't think we are that far apart on our viewpoints. My question about whether there are specific things that you (or others) think are not part of the analysis was probably more directed at the arguments people like your friend are making to you.
...but I tend to disagree with you on parts of this. When you quote Francis Collins saying "You attach zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people’s lives, ruins the economy..." you are referring to a micro-case. The context of the quote is a public health person, and specifically saving lives. Even in the public health sphere writ large, where budgets and resources are limited, there will have to be some sort of consideration of the economic costs (even if they are only the short-term local ones). If the patient is paying, and the patient has the money for a quadruple bypass even though they are 80 years old, smoking 3 packs a day, and ridden with cancer that will kill them in 6 months, there may be a doctor that will take the money and "save the life". But in most cases, the medical decision will probably be "no bypass for you". Especially if there is only one surgeon and operating room available and there is an otherwise healthy 20-year-old that needs heart surgery due to a car accident.
And when we get back to the global economy in relation to the global climate, then yes, "ruining the economy" will be part of the calculations. There will be a lot of subjective values that will be left out, but things that can be quantified are likely included. From my limited understanding, I think that one of the highly debatable points in economic modelling is the "discount rate" - the relative value placed on a life today versus a life 50 or 100 years from now. With a sufficiently high discount rate you can basically say "who cares about tomorrow?". Caring about the long-term argues for a low discount rate. But that also becomes subjective and a function of personal values.
I am somewhat familiar with Canada's legislation related to regulation of chemicals and such. There are clear requirements that an analysis preceding regulation must consider available alternatives and "external" costs that industry and users will face.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:35 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William:
You continue to ignore "the fact" that deaths are not the only thing that contributes to an emergency or disaster.
When you say "...when people make apocalyptic predictions and want us to fundamental change on the back of the predictions", do you include predictions such as "Getting rid of fossil fuels could cause untold damage"??? Or ruining the economy? Or "the dangers of depriving people of cheap reliable energy"??? Or "the economic pain it could bring"???
What is it about your knowledge that makes you so confident in your predictions that disaster awaits if humans take action to prevent climate change? After all, you did say "Mankind has always been useless at predicting the future", and "...neither you or I have any idea which problems will or will not occur".
I think I know the answer to that. You also said:
I have always found it strange how alarmists ( apologies for the lazy term ) always have to debunk and dispute any evidence that goes against their narrative - in this case it is more transparent than normal.
In other words, you accept any argument, no matter how weak, that goes in favour of your preconceptions, and you dismiss any discussion and evidence that goes against your preconceptions. As has been stated, your motivated reasoning is in overdrive.
And adding "may" or "could" to your arguments is very weak. There is a huge difference between "may happen at 95% probability", and "there is a 1:1,000,000 chance it wll happen". There is high confidence that the changes predicted by climate science are very likely. You seem to be willing to bet on the long shot, and are putting your hopes for the future on an argument that amounts to "nobody is perfect".
I think that when you say "I can't help thinking no evidence will make any difference" that you are speaking about yourself.
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William24205 at 03:19 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
lchinitz 13,
It is interesting to compare Covid with climate change. With Covid I was ( certainly at the beginning ) very much on the precautionary side. It was a brand new unknown virus and rising exceptionally .Climate change is of a completely different order - with Covid speed because of the exponential growth speed was of the essence. No such things occurs with climate change - there is no exponential threat as such . Very importantly the threat is extremely slow moving - if a low lying island is threatened we have years to adapt .
There are no upside benefits to a virus - warming/less cold might be good.
We panicked over Covid because people died and very quickly - we were right to panic - and even if we might ( or might not ) have panicked too much - we did the right thing at the time without hindsight.
We are now more relaxed about Covid because fewer are dying - we have had 40 years of climate change coverage and fewer people are also dying.
I am much more worried about a future pandemic than climate change - a pandemic hist you quickly - we can adapt to climate change and we have plenty of time.
nuclear war , biological terrorism even AI worry me a lot more than climate change - they are scary and unpredictable.
In 2019 the WHO cited climate change as the greatest threat to huma health in the next 12 months. Talk about looking in the wrong place and getting things wrong. -
William24205 at 02:54 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Eclectic 14
Thomas Malthus was a bit more than not 100% right - he was more like 100% wrong . He said : We would not have enough food to feed more than one billion people - we actually feed 8 billion better than we did 1 billion. His scare did harm and helped cause the potato famine.I don't cite him and say : predicted problems will not occur because he was wrong. The truth is neither you or I have any idea which problems will or will not occur .
I do say we should remember Thomas Malthus - when people make apocalyptic predictions and want us to fundamental change on the back of the predictions.
Getting rid of fossil fuels could cause untold damage. Cheap reliable energy has massively improved human well-being .
We ignore that our peril. -
William24205 at 02:44 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
John - 22
the quickest way for you to find it is google :
USA Today Lancet study : cold kills 20 times more than heat.
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William24205 at 02:41 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
John - 22
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/
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lchinitz at 02:37 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Hi all,
Thanks for the comments. Let me try to address a few, and refocus on the question I was asking.
First, I am definitely not advocating for a market-based solution to climate change. For all of the reasons that Bob Loblaw raised (and more), I consider the failure to address climate change a classic example of a market failure. We are heavily discounting the future, we are not considering externalities, and we are allowing ourselves to be caught in a Prisoner's Dilemma trap in which "common sense" says that it make more sense to continue to consume and hope that everyone else solves the problem. So climate change is, to me, a perfect example of a collective action problem. We have to work on it together, and government is the mechanism by which we make collective decisions and take collective action.
THAT BEING SAID, to address Bob Loblaw's question ("Do you (or others) have a reason to think that such costs are not part of the economic analysis?"), my answer is that based on my reading, they are not part of the economic analysis. I could be wrong, but look again at what Francis Collin's said in my post #13, above. "You attach zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people’s lives, ruins the economy..." So Collin's is basically saying that in their analysis of the right thing to do, they simply didn't consider those other "costs" at all. They attached zero value to them, which means they were not considered. There was no way for those effects to influence policy, since they had no value.
What I'm asking is, has anyone specifically attempted to look at those costs in the context of climate change? I guess I'm not convinced of Eclectic's opinion that the task would be "gargantuan". This is what economists do, right? Based on uncertain information attempt to align limited resources to best accomplish a set of goals?
So the question would be, suppose we implement a set of policies (from any of the policy documents). What would be the effect on, let's say, food, sanitation, health care, heat, cooling, transportation, etc? And would it be clear from that analysis that the effect on those things would not be so bad as to convince you not to implement the policies in the first place.
I am personally convinced that that is the case. That is, that no matter how you look at it, immediate action to address climate change is necessary. But my personal opinion isn't necessarily persuasive. There is obviously already a lot of solid data supporting my opinion. But it would be nice to have some data looking at the perspective I've tried to describe. At least, I think it would be nice.
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John Mason at 02:25 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
William - can you cite that Lancet study so I can have a read of it? Ta!
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William24205 at 02:12 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Bob 11,
The evidence that cold kills more than heat ( on every continent ) is overwhelming.
A Lancet study of 74 million weather deaths over 17 years - showed cold killing 20 x more than heat, Subsequent comprehensive studies looking at what has happened because of warming - have unsurprisingly shown lives being saved. .That Real Climate or any other similar outfit tried to debunk these studies is predictable. I have always found it strange how alarmists ( apologies for the lazy term ) always have to debunk and dispute any evidence that goes against their narrative - in this case it is more transparent than normal.
As statistical power goes - 74 million over 17 years is pretty significant.
Why not just accept facts? I can't help thinking no evidence will make any difference. -
One Planet Only Forever at 01:55 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Building on this discussion, and not just Bob Loblaw’s points, I offer the following things for people to think about.
Developing human ways of living on this amazing planet that result in the collective of human activity being a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life is undeniably required for humanity to have a future.
The ‘starting point’ for that development is a significant part of the challenge for sustainable development.
The failure to have the marketplace competition for popularity and profit be effectively governed by ‘the pursuit of increased awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful and how to be less harmful and more helpful to others, especially helping those who need assistance to live basic decent lives’ has developed a very problematic starting point.
A lot of correction of unjustly harmful development is required. And in many cases the less harmful alternatives are more expensive and harder to achieve.
And there is reason to be concerned about the harm done by the pursuit of making those alternatives cheaper. The nasty mining that is being done for renewable energy systems is not better than the nasty fossil fuel extraction.
Cheaper or easier or more popular or more profitable does not mean ‘More Sustainable’.
An obvious part of the solution is ending the harmful impacts of unnecessary consumption by people who live ‘better than basic decent lives’.
Seriously think about that.Getting all of the 'supposedly superior higher status' people to reduce their consumption and show leadership by reduciing the harm done by their consumption is 'problematic;.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:46 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
As Eclectic points out in #17, there are many "costs" that are very hard to quantify and include in any economic analysis. But that failure cuts both ways. There is a huge difference between "cost" and "value".
Economics take the approach that if people value it, they'll be willing to spend money on it (cost). But our system does not necessarily allow that. A mining company can buy mining rights on land, but they usually only get to keep those rights if they take action to actually do some mining. I can't outbid them for the mining rights with a plan to never, ever build a mine there - no matter how highly I value that action.
Another important economic concept is "externalities".
An impact, positive or negative, on any party not involved in a given economic transaction or act
You can maximize gain in a portion of the economy through externalities - getting some one else to pay for the negative impacts of your actions. (Queue OPOF...) Climate change is a classic example of negative externalities - the people gaining from fossil fuel production and use don't have to pay for the negative consequences on those that don't. (It's also a classic example of Tragedy of the Commons.)
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Bob Loblaw at 00:26 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
lchinitz:
Do you (or others) have a reason to think that such costs are not part of the economic analysis? Basic economics talks about "supply and demand", where consumption of a good will tend to decrease as prices rise. The rate of decrease in relation to the price increase is call "the elasticity of demand". A highly elastic demand (easy to avoid the purchase, or people just can’t afford it) results in a big drop, while a low elasticity (people buy anyway) results in a small decrease. (Maybe demand goes up if they increase prices, as far as I can tell with Apple.) Elasticity of demand on each product modelled would need to be specified as an input or constraint on the model.
(The supply side of "supply and demand" suggests that as prices rise, more people will be willing to produce and sell. The balancing point is when prices encourage enough producers to produce and sell to the number of people willing to buy at that price.)
Another common economic concept is "opportunity cost". Look! I got 3% this year by buying a GIC! Yes, but you lost 3% because you took the money out of another investment that would have produced 6%... There is a cost associated with the loss of opportunity that the 6% investment offered. This "which is better - mitigation or adaptation?" question appears to me to be essentially an "opportunity cost" question. Not a surprise to economists.
I don't know the internals of economic models, but I would expect that at least some (if not most) of the increased costs associated with climate action would cascade into negative impacts elsewhere, via implicit relationships such as supply and demand and opportunity costs. Even if there is not an explicit statement within the model or analysis, the concept is embedded as a result of other things explicitly included in the model.
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Eclectic at 00:17 AM on 3 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Ichinitz @16 :
Quite so ~ it would be a gargantuan task to undertake a full analysis of the type you would wish.
A decade by decade costing of a rapidly-expanding probability tree, having increasing levels of uncertainty also.
And how to put a dollar cost on individual suffering . . . or how to use other yardsticks (would 10,000 philosophers be enough, over a decade?). Ignoring ecological damage ~ how to cost societal disruption and instability . . . with all the possible consequences in political and other fallout that history has been teaching us (even very modern history).
Daunting. And probably the best we could do is apply some dispassionate commonsense to our estimations. Along with caritas (in the Christian sense).
What we should not do, is ratchet up our Motivated Reasoning, and slide into denial of real-world problems.
Pragmatically, we know of the social & technological inertias that will slow the whole response to AGW. But at least we can be walking fast in the right direction, where we ought to be running.
Half a loaf .....
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lchinitz at 23:47 PM on 2 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Hi Eclectic,
OK, let me back off from trying to speak for William. Probably not fair of me anyway. (I am pretty sure I'm representing my friend well, though.)
Anyway, do you (or does anyone else here) know of any analyses of the kind I mentioned? That is, what are the possible downsides to taking the actions required to (say) limit ourselves to 2C, and is it possible to quantify those downsides (in dollars, for example?)
The subset of people for whom such an analysis would matter may be small, but since I feel like I'm hearing it more than once, I'd like to have a solid analysis as a response in the toolkit.
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Eclectic at 23:41 PM on 2 April 2024A data scientist’s case for ‘cautious optimism’ about climate change
Ichinitz @13 : Sorry, I cross-posted with you.
Yes, it is rational to examine & cost it all from different angles.
But that is not what William is suggesting ~ he seems strongly resistant to taking a medium-to-long-term view. But AGW is too important a matter to allow our emotions to rule our intellects.
