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nigelj at 11:34 AM on 10 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz @60 and 61, the quote you posted clearly implied junk science and industry obfustication posted in the media was at least "a reason" for the failure to make legislative progress, even although it was clearly not the only reason. Hence the rest of my comments. Or maybe we have crossed communication on it. Not a big issue anyway.
And yes the NYT article does vindicate my position. I have to crow about that a bit. "I told you so comes to mind!"
I agree probably only a small number of people read comments, and Im sure I read a study finding this somewhere, but I suspect sometimes those people can be influential. I prefer to apply the precautionary principle of applying pushback because we can't ever be certain about who reads what, plus I confess I quite enjoy the verbal fencing, plus what OPOF says about it. We dont all need to be doing it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:05 AM on 10 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz,
I am revising my comment @55 to be a Letter to the Editor at the NYT.
Regarding comments on News Sites. My own reason for reading and posting comments is to expand awareness and understanding to help better argue against the claims made-up by the people who are trying to excuse harmful unsustainable beliefs and actions.
I learn by reading comments from others. And I hope others learn from what I share.
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John Hartz at 09:19 AM on 10 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj & OFOP:
Score one for your side...
Comment threads can influence climate change attitudes by altering perceived consensus by Eric W Dolan, PsyPost, Dec 8, 2019
With the following caveats...
Over the decade, many MSM websites have eliminated comment threads from the materials posted on them.
I have yet to see any statisitcs about the number of people who actually read what is posted on commnt threads to climate-related articles other than those people who are posting comments. I personally belive there aren't that many.
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John Hartz at 09:08 AM on 10 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj@59: I am baffled by what you meant when you wrote:
John Hartz @54 thank's for the pertinent, sensible and interesting quote. But it said in part "This cascade of phony (climate) science was not the only reason legislation aimed at reducing carbon pollution foundered in Congress. " This is the exact sort of junk science and myths posted by denialists all over the internet, and yet you seem to think pushback is a waste of time, so I'm a bit baffled by that.
The sentnce that you have quoted in the above has a context. It is followed by these two sentnces...
As Bill Clinton and Mr. Gore discovered after signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, there was little enthusiasm in either party for a treaty that essentially required America and other industrial nations to do most of the heavy lifting while giving other big emitters, among them China and India, a far easier path. Still, industry’s relentless obfuscation played a big role, especially among Tea Party Republicans.
Do you take issue with them?
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Doug Bostrom at 12:51 PM on 9 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Analogies don't function in the mind of folks bent on not understanding even as analogies are a very useful way of giving people a leg up on unfamiliar topics. Nor will this web site penetrate diamond-hard dogma.
Fortunately research tells us that the intractably intransigent are distinctly in the minority. :-)
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Doug Bostrom at 12:47 PM on 9 December 2019What would Bill Ruckelshaus do?
I had the privilege of speaking w/Bill Ruckelshaus earlier this year. Still sharp as a tack, perhaps even sharper— advancing age takes away a little of our patience for fools. Ruckelshaus had to deal with a lot of those in his time.
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scaddenp at 06:54 AM on 9 December 2019It's the sun
Deucarra, sailingfree - remember that outgoing must match incoming for conservation of energy. Perhaps need to look at how the Stephan-Bolzmann law is derived?
As it is, temperature is function of power. (T4 ~ to incoming energy flux), so the comparison is entirely valid. If energy flux changes, then surface temperature must change to maintain conservation of energy.
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nigelj at 05:52 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz @54 thank's for the pertinent, sensible and interesting quote. But it said in part "This cascade of phony (climate) science was not the only reason legislation aimed at reducing carbon pollution foundered in Congress. " This is the exact sort of junk science and myths posted by denialists all over the internet, and yet you seem to think pushback is a waste of time, so I'm a bit baffled by that.
Anyway, I think its its worth spending some limited time pushing back against climate denialists and debating with them, providing its done right. The "facts dont convince anyone" claim is a bit simplistic for me, and only really applies to hard core denialists, and its hard to know if someone is a hard core denialist. I would rather apply the precautionary principle, and apply some push back.
What matters is how we push back, because a lot of people do it badly and get lost in detail, and they get bad tempered. Often its best to be short and to the point with some key information of use to ordinary people, always with one internet link to a key document.
Many websites are unmoderated and denialists will just spam so you have to be careful not to get into long converstations that give them a platform to go on and on. You aren't ever going to get them to say "maybe you are right" so what you post is more for the general interest of everyone. Bear that in mind.
I engage in more length with denialists on this website sometimes, because the moderated format at least leads to vaguely useful and interesting discussion and they aren't allowed to sloganeer and spam.
But yes I agree with you that most of our efforts should go into promoting positive change and "doing stuff" and raising awareness, rather than worrying too much about the denialists.
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John Hartz at 05:48 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
As documented in this article, the fossil fuel industry continues its quest to shape the international response to man-made climate change. It's happening in real-time at the ongoing COP 25 conference in Madrid.
COP25 summit: fossil fuel groups accused of trying to influence climate talks, AFP/South China Morning Post, Dec 7, 2019
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John Hartz at 04:56 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
OPOF@55:
Thank you for challenging certain statements made in the New York Time's editorial. Suggest that you forward your commentary to the newspaper's Editorial Board — perhaps in the form of a Letter-the-Editor.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:37 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz @54,
A better story to tell regarding helpful leadership actions would be the Good Leadership actions by Responsible Conservatives in Australia to temporarily sacrifice their popularity by enacting undeniably helpful and sustainable gun control legislation.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:22 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz @54,
Your links continue to be enlightening. The NYTs Editorial is generally helpful. But it includes ways of telling the story that exposes a sinister reality about the storytelling in the USA (and many other supposedly more advanced nations).
One of those things is in the quote you chose to share from the article.
"As Bill Clinton and Mr. Gore discovered after signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, there was little enthusiasm in either party for a treaty that essentially required America and other industrial nations to do most of the heavy lifting while giving other big emitters, among them China and India, a far easier path."
That is an accurate presentation of the claims that were being made, and continue to be made. But it is an incomplete presentation and misrepresentation of what the Kyoto Protocol required and why it required it.
Everyone should seek out the original development documents, or at least read the final document. The details missed and misstated include:
- There is a debt owed by each nation for its history of contribution to the current day problem.
- Every human has equal right to be as harmful as every other human, a presentation of 'all people are equal' that leads to understanding that every nation has the right to increase its impacts to the same per-capita levels as other nations.
- The highest per-capita impacting nations need to lead the correction of ways of living by reducing their per-capita impacts, to set the upper limits for the less developed nations to develop up to.
- Since the end requirement is the ending of fossil fuel use it will be beneficial for the more developed nations to help the less developed nations develop more directly to sustainable activity, not follow the path of increased fossil fuel use followed by a need to undo or correct that development.
- The nations with the highest current day debt (due to total impacts to date) also owe the less impacting and less developed nations assistance in 'adapting' to climate change impacts already created.
- That means that the Sustainably Corrected future would have less perceptions of superiority and dominance by the current day "Winners of perceptions of Superiority".
That fuller understanding has been 'removed from discussion, maybe never introduced in the first place' by leadership in some of the supposedly more advanced nations, making them undeserving of being considered 'more advanced nations'. It makes them nations deserving ridicule for having developed misleading storytelling propaganda systems, and apparently not realizing that it has happened, all in pursuit of 'harmfully selfishly tribally trying to maintain and increase unsustainable perceptions of superiority relative to others'.
This is something that has been able to be understood for decades. Edward S. Herman (with Noam Chomsky) produced Manufacturing Consent in 1988 as a presentation of Herman's Propaganda Model (Movie of the same name made in 1992). And Alan MacLeod produced an update on Manufacturing Consent in the 2019 book Propaganda in the Information Age.
How stories get told and what stories get told matters (even News Reports and Science Publications are stories). And the harmfully correction resistant among the powerful understand that very well.
I appreciate that that is 'not a solution'. But any claimed solution that is not based on understanding the problem 'is not a sustainable solution'.
Another quote that exposes a sinister aspect of the way climate change stories get told is "Climate change, by contrast, has for a long time been seen as remote, something for future generations to worry about, and in polls has appeared far down on the list of voters’ concerns."
That misrepresents the unacceptability of acting to benefit today in a way that future generations cannot continue to enjoy (fossil fuels are non-renewable). And it dismissively brushes away any sense of guilt about causing harmful challenges that Others (the future generations) will end up having to deal with. It also highlights the grotesque unacceptability of basing Leadership action on Popularity and Profitability, especially in a socioeconomic-political system that is undeniably perverted by propaganda pressures to defend unsustainable developed perceptions of Superiority.
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John Hartz at 01:45 AM on 9 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj @50:
I encourage you and everyone following this comment thread to read:
The World Solved the Ozone Problem. It Can Solve Climate Change., Opinion by the Editorial Board, Sunday Review, New York Times, Dec 8, 2019
Particularly germane to our discussion is this paragraph:
Finally, despite predictable industry warnings of economic ruin, the efforts to protect the ozone layer and clean up the nation’s waters and air faced nowhere near the campaign of denial and disinformation mounted by Exxon Mobil and other big fossil fuel companies — companies that knew perfectly well what their products were doing to the atmosphere — to confuse the public about climate change and to derail serious attempts to address them. This cascade of phony science was not the only reason legislation aimed at reducing carbon pollution foundered in Congress. As Bill Clinton and Mr. Gore discovered after signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, there was little enthusiasm in either party for a treaty that essentially required America and other industrial nations to do most of the heavy lifting while giving other big emitters, among them China and India, a far easier path. Still, industry’s relentless obfuscation played a big role, especially among Tea Party Republicans.
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sailingfree at 13:45 PM on 8 December 2019It's the sun
deucarra @ 1278: You are quite correct.
I assume that others, as I do, "eyeball" the average incoming irradiation and compare it to the slope of the temperature curve.
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nigelj at 11:46 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz @51
"The climate denier ranting and raving in the blogosphere have had very little impact on the real world."
I wouldn't be too sure about that. Plenty of ordinary people I know are sceptical about AGW climate science ,and they repeat the sort of slogans posted by denialists all over the internet, particlurly on blogs, so its fairly obvious where they get their information. It then spreads by word of mouth like an infection.
And some of these ordinary people are in positions of power to make changes, but they are being infected by the denialists.
Of course I dont think the impact of blogs is huge. Media articles by denialists probably have a bit more impact.
"The lobbyists employed by the fossil fuel industry and their allies and the campaign donations made by the fossil fuel industry and their allies have effectively prevented any worthwhile political action on climate change for decades."
This is a big part of it. The book Dark Money is relevant although I sus pect you have read it.
"BTW, I vigorously engaged climate deniers on the comment threads of media outlets and elsewhere for a few years before I realized that doing so was a waste of my time and energy."
I engage people with sceptical climate views for various reasons. Firstly there's always a chance some of them will change their minds. Even a few hard core denialists like Richard Mueller change their minds, although they are exceptions to the rule.
Do remember just because someone fights with you and never gives in on the internet, doesn't mean they aren't listening to what you say. People are reluctant to admit error, and change their minds openly in public, or admit you have a point, because its human nature.
However I have no illusions. Many denialists will be denialists for life even if sea level rose 20 metres.
Secondly I'm currently living alone, and I enjoy debates, and I get very bored with television. Thirdly debates here with denialists often raise some interesting issues. But its not for everyone. I totally respect people who don't wish to engage with denialists.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:31 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
BillyJoe,
My full comments and their entire context are what I meant and said. And further clarification can certainly be provided.
I try to comment based on the objective of expanding awareness and improving understanding applied to achieve and improve the Sustainable Development Goals.
There is almost an endless depth of understanding associated with that (the global community has been developing it since the 1960s). Climate Science is only part of the understanding of the Climate Action Goal. And the Climate Action Goal is only one of the 17 categories of Goals (and each Goal category contains a diversity of goals).
However, what is clear is that limiting the impacts of human induced climate change is a Keystone Goal because more rapidly achieving it makes it easier to achieve almost all of the other Goals (and delaying the corrections makes the future worse). And exceeding 1.5 C brings about uncorrectable changes (some have already occurred such as initiating the collapse of an Antarctic Ice Shelf and Extinctions of many forms of life).
Now to your response regarding the statement made by AOC. "We really don't know what she actually meant and it doesn't matter." Anyone uninterested in asking for clarification of what she said deserves to be challenged regarding their apparant lack of interest in pursuing increased understanding.
That is what a legitimate Skeptic would do.
And the same applies to the claims made based on misinterpretations of Mann's interview, claims made years after the interview without asking Mann for clarification. A legitimiate skeptic would have sought clarification before making a claim about what was meant.
And that is what I meant regarding Potholer54. I do not know if Potholer54 approached either Mann or AOC for clarification. If not, he piled on to the criticism based on an interpretation of the statements. I am being a little hard on Potholer54 because he has a history of Journalism. That means he should know about investigating and verifying understanding before reporting.
The parties deserving ridicule are the people who were not legitimately skeptical and just 'went along piling on', like the group that still claim that the climate-gate climate scientists should have been more careful about what they said in their emails. Ridicule is also to be directed at every storyteller in a position of information influence who failed to investigate and interrogate the initiators of the original 'sin' of Climate-gate: the data thieves, those who went through the emails to find the few bits to abuse out of context, those who created the initial misleading claims, the powerful people who likely coordinated it. And everyone who bought into the misleading mess without first applying legitimate skepticism and pursuing improved understanding deserves ridicule.
What is being exposed by the Climate Science case is the Lack of Legitimacy of Games based on Popularity and Profitability. Those are clearly not measures of Merit or Worth. They are just impressions of Winning. How the winning happens is important. Thta differentiates deserved Winning from undeserved Winning. Sustainable (deserved) Impressions can only be achieved through Sustainable actions.
Popularity and profitability can be seen to not care about the ways of Winning (or the ways of lawmaking or enforcement), and therefore can be rather useless as a means to achieve Sustainable Results. In fact, they can be seen to develop harmful results and powerful resistance to correction.
The likes of Greta and AOC attract and expose the people who deserve to be ridiculed and dismissed until they are corrected. And anyone who reacts powerfully negatively to them is likely a lost cause. They are likely part of the group that will need to be Responsibly Governed and Limited until they learn to change their minds, which may mean they end up always being governed and limited by Responsible Others (and angrily demand more Freedom to believe what they want and do as they please but deservingly never get it).
The future of humanity is actually at stake here. The Sustainable Development Goals are the path to a lasting future for humanity. Anyone with Other interests needs to have their awareness expanded and understanding improved. Anyone preferring to resist the required corrections deserves to be angry and disappointed.
Extinction Rebellion appears to be on to a Good Thing, upsetting people who need to be disturbed.
WPotholer45 may be quite helpful. All that I clearly questioned was Potholer54's helpfulness in the specific cases that I have identified may be deserving of ridicule, his potential lack of effort to expand awareness and understanding regarding interpretations of things AOC and Mann said.
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John Hartz at 10:05 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
Billy Joe:
No, I am not kidding.
The climate denier ranting and raving in the blogosphere have had very little impact on the real world.
The lobbyists employed by the fossil fuel industry and their allies and the campaign donations made by the fossil fuel industry and their allies have effectively prevented any worthwhile political action on climate change for decades.
BTW, I vigorously engaged climate deniers on the comment threads of media outlets and elsewhere for a few years before I realized that doing so was a waste of my time and energy.
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BillyJoe at 09:25 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
John Hartz, you are kidding, right?
Through moderation, this site is shielded from commentary by climate deniers, but try to write anything about climate science on any unmoderated forum and see the mountains of nonsense you have to put up with.
Climate deniers have had so much impact that they have effectively prevented any worthwhile political action on climate change for about three decades.
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John Hartz at 08:52 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
BillyJoe @48: You wrote:
The climate denying blogosphere predictably got great mileage out of it.
Who cares? The "climate denying blogosphere" has little impact on the real world. Let them wallow in their own poppycock!
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:53 AM on 8 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
ed56 @19,
People who resist expanding their awareness and resist improving their understanding and resist applying what they learn to help develop a sustainable and improvable future for a robust diversity of humanity fitting in to a robust diversity of life are not "... natural grown inhabitants of this planet".
They are products of the socioeconomic-political systems and story-telling that they developed in. They are humans who have allowed their ability to be 'helpful members of a robust diversity of humanity' to be over-powered by the 'harmful selfish enticements and motivations of the socioeconomic-political systems' that can be seen to develop harmful unsustainable results and develop powerful resistance to correction.
Climate science and the resistance to accepting it is clearly the largest case study proving that point. But similar examples exist related to every other Sustainable Development Goal.
Whenever the harmful correction resistant portion of the population sense that learning would threaten a developed belief and resulting personally liked actions they will be tempted to use all available methods to evade 'learning to be helpful rather than continue to be enjoy being harmful'. That is on bold display everywhere. It is even tragically succeeding at temporarily winning unfettered power in some of the 'supposedly most advanced nations'. And it is having significant influence even if that harmful portion of the population do not win unfettered power. Popularity and profitability are hard to effectively fight against.
The future of humanity is at stake. And there are indeed two camps. And one of them clearly deserves to be Governed and Limited by the Other Camp. The Nature and Humanity camp must govern and limit the Popularity and Profit Camp.
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BillyJoe at 07:24 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
OPOF, you seem to be quite happy to defend the indefensible. AOC saying "the world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change" is not defensible at any level. The statement is wrong on its face. We really don't know what she actually meant and it doesn't matter. The climate denying blogosphere predictably got great mileage out of it. And, hopefully, if AOC had her time back again, she would not have fed them this goldmine quote. But she won't learn any lesson from this incident if she keeps her head in the sand and brushes it aside as obvious exaggeration as you have done.
On the other hand what did you mean by the following:
"And very few reporters who started piling on to the original misleading claims about what Mann said appear to have bothered to actually better understand the issue before piling on (potentially including Potholer54)"
I know you don't like the guy, but what does "potentially including Potholer54" even mean? If he actually did pile on Mann then you need to link to where he does so and not just say that you think he might have done so if he had thought about it or whatever else you meant by that statement.
Potholer's latest video now has over 40,000 views and over 2,300 comments. Climate Adam's video is now dead in the water. You might not like his style but he is having a significant effect here.
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RedBaron at 06:47 AM on 8 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Here is even more independent confirmation that the rate of sequestration is reasonable and repeatable.
Soil Carbon Sequestration and the Soil Food Web
First a simple video made by Dr. Elaine Ingham explains what I have been posting about here for several years. Including the same rate of sequestration found all over the world well within the 5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr found by Dr Christine Jones decades ago and confirmed by many others.
And now Dr David Johnson tosses his hat in the ring as yet another independant researcher obtaining results in this same range.
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ed56 at 04:00 AM on 8 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Nigelj, science denial may be a special problem in den US (much less in Europa, where I sit), but then again it is not a challenge for natural science.
It may be one for sociology, and I miss information here from this perspective.
You all know better what the effect of this website is, from my superficial perception it could have the effect of further splitting the (social) camps.
Remember, the other camp is also a natural grown inhabitant of this planet ;-) -
One Planet Only Forever at 02:15 AM on 8 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj,
Trying to be brief, clear, attention getting, and unable to be misinterpreted is very hard.
Even warning about the end of the world "as we know it" does not say what needs to be said.
If "all of the SDGs, but especially the Climate Action Goals, are not achieved by 2030 and improved on after that time", humanity will have a much tougher time developing a sustainable future that can be improved by new sustainable developments.
The world humanity developed in is already irreversibly negatively affected in many ways. And lack of action towards achieving all of the SDGs by 2030, and improving on them all, makes it worse.
We are already seeing extinctions of life forms as a result of the harmful unsustainable ways of living that the current fatally flawed developed socioeconomic-political systems encourage because popularity and profitability are claimed to be "Irrefutable Proof of Good and Deserving". And the climate change tipping point of one of the Antarctic Ice Sheets has already been passed.
The robust diversity of life for a robust diversity of humanity to sustainably be a part of is being irreversibly damaged. And a very slow changing physical planet has also been irreversibly impacted by sped up changes.
The Harm of CO2 from fossil fuels is a by-product of the harm of human competition for perceptions of superiority relative to others. The developed systems, especially ones that measure merit by popularity and profitability but do not effectively limit what is allowed in the competition, are "the world as we know it" that actually needs to be ended by 2030, the sooner the better.
Actions that are likely to be sustainable should be the only actions allowed to compete. And if new learning identifies that an action is not as sustainable as originally thought, a good system would rapdly shut it down, not caring about how popular or profitable it was, and not caring to 'protect the perceptions of wealth that had been developed'. That was done with MTBE (google it). But it is essential for the system to care to make sure everyone is helped to rapidly transition to a sustainable way of living as the developed unsustainable action is very rapidly terminated.
Correcting the massively incorrect system and its current day developments means a lot of people who perceive themselves as winners actually have to admit they are 'less deserving' and need to change how they live and be more helpful to others as they give up personal benefits.
Try to say that briefly. It is what the SDGs and the GND are all about. But it cannot be 'stated briefly'. And more careful communication of climate science will not do it.
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John Hartz at 23:47 PM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
nigelj @ 17: You wrote:
Sadly the article was also rather vague on just how to reach the hard core denialists but rather than throw too many facts at them it might be useful to talk about motivated reasoning and confirmation bias. Thus they are not being told they are wrong or have the wrong facts. But the rest of the article was great.
My advice to you and everyone — Ignore the hard core denialist and focus on getting the majority of people to move from climate awareness to climate action.
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MA Rodger at 20:05 PM on 7 December 2019CO2 was higher in the past
Livinginawe @98,
You pose an interesting thought (which I think can be addressed on-topic).In essence, I don't think mankind's could ever become saviour of a living world by boosting atmospheric CO2 levels.
If we look tens-of-thousands of years into the future, there is talk (eg see this Wikithing page, although the reference it makes Berger & Loutre (2002) is not as defininte) that in 50,000 years time the world will face an ice age that will not be dodged by our emissions. By that time the impact of our emissions on the atmosphere would be much diminished. But an ice age does not of itself reduce the amount of carbon about. Rather it sucks it out of the atmosphere into oceans and frozen soils.
While these dips in CO2 could soon make life for C3 plants very difficult, C4 plants can survive at atmospheric CO2 levels well below 100ppm. And there are also aquatic plants which maybe even benefit from colder waters enriched by CO2.Over the longer term, hundreds-of-millions of years, the increase in solar strength will increase rainfall and thus increase rock weathering drawing down carbon into the geology via the slow carbon cycle(as this NASA web-page terms it) while the release of carbon back from geology via volcanic activity is presumably fixed and will not respond enough to compensate. Thus the 60,000Gt(C) on the planet will more-&-more become trapped in the geology (currently about 10,000Gt(C) is in trapped in rocks) and atmospheric CO2 levels will drop.
The works of man so-far have release ~700Gt(C) from FF with perhaps 1,500Gt(C) of FF reserves and so they don't amount to anything significant in the grand scheme of things.
Mind, as the sun warms the planet creating a wetter world which draws down more CO2 into the rocks, that loss of CO2 will cool the world and act as a brake on the process. The loss of CO2 would be something like 500My of the strenghening sun, so after that sort of time period the wetter climate would have no CO2 'brake'.Over the last 50My we have seen atmospheric CO2 levels drop but that atmospherc loss of perhaps ~5,000Gt(C) was probably driven by the Himalayas being weathered down in the wet climate of the tropics with a feedback of lost CO2 cooling the climate and drawing further CO2 into the oceans (where most of the planet's carbon resides today). So the rate of loss of atmospheric CO2 over the Cenozoic era probably shouldn't be projected into the future with any confidence.
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nigelj at 16:29 PM on 7 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
OPOF @ 15, AOC probably meant to say: the world "as we know it" is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change" which is fine. Unfortunately she didn't. But I get your point.
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nigelj at 16:22 PM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Regarding "Flat Earthers, and the Rise of Science Denial in America," linked by John Hartz.
A good read with mostly convincing conclusions, but it was not clear what it meant by denialists. I think what you have is "hard core" denialists who have gone slightly crazy and have a very extreme view of climate science. There are many moderate sceptics who are just slightly sceptical and people who are rather "impressionable" and easily swayed. The risk is the hard core denialists infect these moderates. This is the war zone we have to be wary of.
These are two largely different groups, because we are all sceptics of everything to some extent. Facts wont change hard core denialists minds, with a few exceptions, because they are driven by ideology and conspiracy theory beliefs, but I believe facts do change the minds of the moderatly sceptical people. The article failed to make the distinction so sends a bad message.
Sadly the article was also rather vague on just how to reach the hard core denialists but rather than throw too many facts at them it might be useful to talk about motivated reasoning and confirmation bias. Thus they are not being told they are wrong or have the wrong facts. But the rest of the article was great.
These denialists seem to go over board with conspiracy theories and they really do "believe". I remember reading about the illumaniti conspiracy and it can be seductive, but I have a big internal wall that stops be falling for this sort of thing, and a careful study of the origins of the group shows its harmless. But that sort of study takes effort to find reliable information and recognise it. Makes me wonder if denialists are often just lazy.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:59 PM on 7 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj @ 34,
I share your experience as an Applied Science Professional seeking justification for any claim or decision made (and trying to make sure my claims or decisions had a robust basis). My most common move regarding a claim was to ask the claim-maker (Sales-pitch deliverer) to provide a clarification or more detailed justification and independently investigate the issue.
That led me to challenging "technical Sales Reps" in ways that resulted in them changing their sales pitches. In some cases they realized they had been caught making a claim they could not defend and they changed.
To be as correct as possible here is what Mann said:
"A runaway greenhouse effect means once the planet gets warmer and warmer, then the oceans begin to evaporate. And water vapor is a very strong greenhouse gas, even more powerful than carbon dioxide. So you can get to a situation where it just — the oceans will begin to boil, and the planet becomes so hot that the ocean ends up in the atmosphere. And that happened to Venus."
And many years later some people, including the infamously incorrect Watts of WUWT, started claiming Mann had incorrectly declared the "End of the world". And very few reporters who started piling on to the original misleading claims about what Mann said appear to have bothered to actually better understand the issue before piling on (potentially including Potholer54). Few if any appeared to ask Mann what his comment or clarification was. And nobody asked the originators of the misleading claim making like Watts to explain themselves (just like few, maybe nobody, are asking the misleading climategate claim-makers to explain themselves).
The same thing happened to AOC and her "End of the World" remark. AOC was most likely correctly commenting regarding the need to achieve all of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, not just the climate change goal. But it is still correct to have said it if her comment was restricted to climate change because of the potential for significant irreversible future consequences if serious climate impact correction is not achieved by 2030 (the date for all of the SDGs). Many people did not bother to ask her to clarify what she meant. She could have, and probably would have, done that. And some reporters, after obtaining a better understanding of what she meant, could have asked the people who criticised her 'sales-pitch' what they think of the clarification (some of them would dislike the achievement of the SGDs, but probably would try to not admit it).
It is important to understand that people like Trump do not like to be asked to explain themselves (that is why he limits his interviews and loves His One Way Rallies with his Loyal Fans). AOC and Mann are the opposite (in spite of claims that they are just appealing to 'their base' with their sales-pitches).
Not all sales-pitchers are bad. The intention is what matters most. And seeking clarification of a sales-pitch helps determine if it is intended to improve awareness and understanding to help develop a sustainable and improving future for humanity, or is harmfully misleading and hoping to be appealing.
Helpfully tugging on Heart-strings can be effective. And a jolt to get the heart pumping can also work. But, tragically, the likes of Trump prove that anger and fear based passion is more motivating. The likes of Greta and AOC appear to be on to that, but in a helpful rather than harmful way.
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BillyJoe at 12:38 PM on 7 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
OPOF: "So AOC...did not exaggerate".
AOC said: "the world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change".
Well, I guess I would have to agree that this is not an "exaggeration". But only if I'm allowed to call it a "lie". But let's just settle on "hyperbole" because that is what it was and I don't for a moment think she believed her statement was actually true.
And the effects have all been negative. Climate deniers are having no end of fun pointing out how ridiculous the statement was. And climate proponents are having a pretty hard time defending her statement as hyperbole (response by climate deniers: "yeah like all climate science!").
This was a fail for climate change. No question.
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BTW:
Potholer's latest video on 5th Dec 2019 (not specifically about climate change) has over 35,000 views and over 2,000 comments.
Climate Adam on 28th Nov 2019: 732 views, and 10 comments.
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John Hartz at 09:02 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
ed56@4: You wrote:
Then again, when there is no refusal of AGW (any more), why does the world need a website like this?
If you carefully read the following article, you will understand why your global assertion is not accurate.
Flat Earthers, and the Rise of Science Denial in America, Opinion by Lee McIntyre, Newsweek, May 14, 2019
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John Hartz at 08:46 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Doug @13: Here's the "About" statement posted on the website of MIT's Center for Global Change Science (CGCS). Note the final paragraph in particular:
The Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) at MIT was founded in January 1990 to address fundamental questions about the global environment with a multidisciplinary approach. In July 2006 the CGCS became an independent Center in the School of Science. The Center’s goal is to improve the ability to accurately predict changes in the global environment.
CGCS seeks to better understand the natural mechanisms in the ocean, atmosphere and land systems that together control the Earth’s climate, and to apply improved knowledge to problems of predicting global environmental change. The Center utilizes theory, observations, and numerical models to investigate environmental phenomena, the linkages among them, and their potential feedbacks in a changing climate.
The Center builds on existing programs of research and education in the Schools of Science and Engineering at MIT. The interdisciplinary organization fosters studies on topics as varied as, for example, oceanography, meteorology, hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, ecology, biogeochemical cycling, paleoclimatology, applied math, data assimilation, computer science, and satellite remote sensing.
CGCS sustains a program of discovery science with research on the natural processes in the global environment, concentrating on the circulations, cycles and interactions of water, air, energy, and nutrients in the Earth system.
Parallel CGCS activities incorporate the insight gained into climate prediction models, and climate policy analysis, with the aim of providing it in a useful way to decision-makers confronting the coupled challenges of future food, energy, water, climate and air pollution (among others). The CGCS also interacts with complementary MIT efforts in the Environmental Solutions Initiative, the Energy Initiative, and the Earth Resources Laboratory.
Given that cutting-edge research about carbon capture is occurring at MIT, you might want to nose around the CGS website to see if your question is being addressed.
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nigelj at 06:33 AM on 7 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
OPOF @, I do agree to the extent the middle grounds people need a bit of a shock or jolt. The tipping point paper does that nicely, but at least it is science based and makes it clear boiling oceans are just a possibility.
It's also interesting that the extinction rebellion people have resonated with the public in what looks like a largely positive way despite the scary and extreme name. I'm undermining my own argument a bit here, but I like to be open minded and not stubborn.
But mistakes, hype and exaggeration does annoy me. It's possibly because I did a couple of years in quality assurance, in a management role, and it cultivates a nit picking sceptical attitude. I make no apologies for that.
I think past a certain point exaggeration and stupid claims will have the reverse effect of whats intended. Ie self defeating. And while Manns claims are defensible, just, AOC was simply mistaken even if well intentioned and it undermines her many good contributions. The GND is definitely a big shock sort of policy, but that at least can be logically defended.
If people cry "fire" too often people eventually stop listening. But the tipping points research is the right sort of shock doctrine, because its evolving and has a good foundation.
Yes the slow steady kumbya style of the moderates is frustrating, but politics is politics. These people don't respond well when shouted at. They like to see evidence based reassoned argument, and not too much hype and emotional button pushing (like Trump does to people and it only really works well with his base).
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nigelj at 06:10 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
ed56@9, scepticalscience is just a name. Names need to be short and calling the website "busting climate myths.org" is long and corny and could be interpreted in different ways leading to the need to write "busting the climate myths of the climate sceptics.org which is even longer.
Yeah maybe the intent in the name sceptical science was to fishook in a few climate sceptics. No big deal. Clever move.
But I get your point that Sceptical science implies scepticism should be broadly applied. I think it would be useful to have the occasional article looking at some of the extremist warming claims and dissecting them. Eg climate change will cause human extinction, and the ridiculous claims on arctic-news.blogspot.com.
This website is probably not the ideal venue for looking regularly at mitigation and adaptation and the pros and cons, ie a sceptical analysis, because it can't do everything, but it could look at the occasional mitigation issue such as the very science heavy ones. In fact it did that a year ago by taking a look at the claims made by Alan Savory about regenerative cattle farming being able to sequester vast quantities soil carbon, and took a sceptical position. Heres the article.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:53 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Not quite what I was thinking of, John, but it certainly covers the materal in more concentrated way.
I'm thinking more along the lines of what we do, something that can do better than the current Google results on a question such as "how does co2 capture via chemisorption compare iin cost to direct capture." If you try that query there's no obvious place to go.
I don't get out much, so I'm sure I'm missing something. :-)
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John Hartz at 04:28 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
doug_bostrom @11: You opined:
Ed, your point about a site that collects and compares methods and mechansims for mitigation, adaptation etc. is a good one. There's a lot of redundant babble in the popular climate communications world and there could certainly be benefit from more specialization. Perhaps there is such a site— I don't know of it myself.
There are in fact many such sites. Carbon Brief is a prime example.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:25 AM on 7 December 2019Video: Is CO2 actually dangerous?
nigelj @40,
It would be great if 'moderates' could become passionate defenders of the future of humanity. But without a 'shock' many of the fence-sitters and by-standers are likely to remain neutralish and resist learning that developed ways of living that are popular and profitable are actually very harmful and need to be stopped.
The article about tipping-points indicates that there is the potential for 'the boiling of the oceans' (runaway hot-house earth) due to interactions between tipping-points. And it identifies that if dramatic corrective action is not taken during the next 12 years (now to 2030), the world of the future several 1000s of years that humanity could have been able to quite easily enjoy sustainably living is very likely to be Gone Forever, no possible fix to bring it back.
Climate Adam's video about the 'harm' of CO2 is valid. And the article about tipping-points indicates that limiting the impacts to 1.5 C is 'scientifically the requirement'. More than 1.5 C warming impact is unacceptably risking harm to the future of humanity, potentially bringing about more rapid changes that are far more challenging to adapt to.
The excuse seekers like to hear that 2 C is OK (and even warmer would be OK you know - to be fair to current day people). They are likely to be turned off by any attempt to get them to understand that more than 1.5 C warming impact is unacceptable, because that understanding actually leads to admitting they need to sacrifice some of their developed ways of enjoying living, and stop trying to profit from fossil fuels.
So AOC and Mann did not exaggerate. They stated 'shocking' potential future consequences. Some people succeeded in getting Others to believe that the statements were reasons to be dismissive of the concerns being raised by climate science (just like the Climate-gate email scandal was abused).
I still maintain that anyone 'significantly doubtful and reluctant to learn' because of what they 'perceive' to be an exaggeration is 'just looking for excuses' and they will always be able to find excuses.
The problem is not the attention-getting claims made by AOC and Mann. The problem is people who are looking for excuses to be less interested in paying attention to the issue and learning about the issue.
Unfortunately, current day politicians respond to unreasonable popular passion (that is what a system that rewards based on popularity and profit will develop). I wish that would change. But until it does "Shocking people into paying attention" is likely a helpful action. Climate matters are definitely in the News more (even in the Fake News more), potentially because of those 'shocking comments' (and Angry Teenage Greta).
Anyone resisting learning about the corrections that are required 'because they do not like to be shocked' is likely not genuinely interested in being helpful even if they claim to be. Many people can claim to be very concerned about climate change, maybe even saying it is their highest concern, but would still vote for a party that definitely acts contrary to that concern because of Other Concerns (often based on made-up claims and unjustified beliefs targeting status quo tribal selfishness) that tempt them to like that party.
The slow and steady, 'Kumbaya style - Let's all just get along' approach of the moderates has been a damaging failure through the past 30 years. Sadly, the new generation being significantly angry and motivated to vote (along with the adults who care about the future) may be the solution. That can be expected to be viciously resisted. But the future of humanity is actually at stake.
CO2 is potentially very Harmful.
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Doug Bostrom at 03:05 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Ed, your point about a site that collects and compares methods and mechansims for mitigation, adaptation etc. is a good one. There's a lot of redundant babble in the popular climate communications world and there could certainly be benefit from more specialization. Perhaps there is such a site— I don't know of it myself.
But as to whether or not SkS is useful, site access statistics show a clear result: some half a million persons per month arrive here and land on specific articles debunking various climate change myths. It's a very purposeful and objective use of the site. These people are on personal fact-checking missions and we're here when they need us. There's no other such resource available.
Skeptical Science is specialized on providing factual corrections to climate misunderstandings. That's our stock-in-trade, our raison d'etre. We're a climate myth debunking encyclopedia.
Perusing the "Humans dealing with our global warming" section above suggests several other available specialty communications slots. A site focusing on popular conveyance of human cognition of hazards and risks would certainly be good. Much of our problem in dealing with climate lies in our poor mental faculties for that.
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John Hartz at 00:27 AM on 7 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
ed56 @9:
If you click on the About button on this website's Home Page, you will find the following statement:
Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organisation, run by a global team of volunteers.
The goal of Skeptical Science is to explain what peer reviewed science has to say about global warming. When you peruse the many arguments of global warming skeptics, a pattern emerges. Skeptic arguments tend to focus on narrow pieces of the puzzle while neglecting the broader picture. For example, focus on Climategate emails neglects the full weight of scientific evidence for man-made global warming. Concentrating on a few growing glaciers ignores the world wide trend of accelerating glacier shrinkage. Claims of global cooling fail to realise the planet as a whole is still accumulating heat. This website presents the broader picture by explaining the peer reviewed scientific literature.
Often, the reason for disbelieving in man-made global warming seem to be political rather than scientific. Eg - "it's all a liberal plot to spread socialism and destroy capitalism". As one person put it, "the cheerleaders for doing something about global warming seem to be largely the cheerleaders for many causes of which I disapprove". However, what is causing global warming is a purely scientific question. Skeptical Science removes the politics from the debate by concentrating solely on the science.
This has been the mission of Skeptical Science since its inception and will continue to be its mission in the future.
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RedBaron at 21:45 PM on 6 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Biofuels are not good and part of the reason for AGW.
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ed56 at 21:00 PM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Ok, so some people misuse the word 'skeptical' by pretending to have scientific arguments objecting the AGW explanation, while actually they have only misinformation based on political motives.
Now by calling this website 'Skeptical' you trap them and make them read the truth. Does is work? I doubt.
Why not be clear: The scientific facts about AGW are not debatable, the political conclusions are. Let's classify them and collect pro and con arguments for each. -
Doug Bostrom at 18:22 PM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Ed: "...why does the world need a website like this?"
Some of us "lifers" on this project are sincerely wishing for the day when this site becomes truly obsolete. :-)
That's not yet the case. The public is still being fed a rich fare of toxic mental fodder, for later regurgitation.on social media etc. Here's an example published only a few days ago (put your brain in protective wrapping before reading because research suggests we're all more or less susceptible to infection):
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201912011077447053-eu-parliaments-climate-emergency-will-lead-to-disastrous-consequences---former-un-expert/
Sputnik of course is an O&O organ of a country with an utterly desperate, urgent dependence on fossil fuel revenues, so it figures they'd need to debase themselves by publishing such garbage. Many variations on this theme having the common tune of money vector preservation make SkS still necessary. We could wish it was otherwise.
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nigelj at 12:34 PM on 6 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Actually I did say biofuels, forestry and beccs, to be accurate. But they form a similar group of things and are different from the renewable energy issue.
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Daniel Bailey at 12:30 PM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Being a skeptic is not being given a license to lie. The science underlying AGW is almost 2 centuries old, and has been independently researched and validated as accurate by the fossil fuel companies themselves.
I understand that pretend-skeptics don't like actual science that runs counter to their preselected opinions, but then, that's not skepticism. It's flagrant denial: denial of facts, physics and history.
Time and history are not on the side of pretend-skeptics, for the time for denial is long over.
All that is left is to stand up and be counted, either as someone who understands science...or someone who doesn't.
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nigelj at 12:24 PM on 6 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Red Baron @36, my reference to all the eggs in one basket only suggested that a miraculous (like really dramatic) level of results from rotational grazing would mean not needing biofuels. I made no reference to not needing anything beyond that, like not needing renewable energy. I think I was clear. And theres no evidence of miracles being likely but there is evidence of something useful.
Since you at least appear to concede we need biofuels, this will place firm limits on land areas available for grazing, which was always my point.
I agree with the rest of your comments. I tend to think there are questions about the long term sustainability of the industrial and corporate farming model, and also intensive dairy farming, particularly using feed crops. Something looks like it has to change, and the benefits to the climate might almost be a side effect of this broader level of change, if that makes sense. When there are a lot of reasons to do something, we should mostly just do that thing. We might be looking at a longer term agricultural transformation that goes well beyond 2050.
I will leave it there, and I probably wont comment more on all this for now.
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nigelj at 11:54 AM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
ed56 @4, I hear you, but read the mission statement for this website at the top of the home page "This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism." Having read much of the so called global warming scepticism myself, there is much to be sceptical about their claims. This website can't be all things to all people, and it focuses on getting sceptical about what the climate sceptics / denialists like to claim.
However there is published science from time to time that takes a sceptical position on mainstream climate science positions, and you sometimes see this in the weekly list of research papers.
The greenhouse effect is established science, so there's no particular reason to be sceptical about it, in the same way theres no reason to be sceptical about the earth orbiting the sun. The things in genuine doubt include the exact effects of clouds and this gets discussed from time to time.
And "warmists" argue with each other quite frequently for example look at the comments posted on the article "Video:Is CO2 dangerous" in the list of recent articles. So theres plenty of scepticism if you have your eyes open.
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scaddenp at 09:56 AM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
Scientists the true skeptics - demanding evidence for everything. Pseudo-skeptics are only skeptical about positions that offend what they would like to beleive, swallowing garbage without a blink if it backs their preferrences
"Then again, when there is no refusal of AGW (any more), why does the world need a website like this?"
If that true, then sure, the site could shut down. However, visitor no.s suggest otherwise. If you think there is no refusal of AGW anymore, then just peruse back through the "comments" link at top for a few pages and see whether you still think so. There is a very strong science consensus but not so much among the voting public who clearly prefer to convenient lies.
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ed56 at 09:42 AM on 6 December 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
The author and the project may be 100% right in their scientific positions, but why the 'Skeptical' in the title?
There is not skeptic attitude anywhere in this article or the whole website. You report that the mainstream finding is the mainstream finding, you repeat over and over that consensus has been reached and that there are no AGW denial positions.
So why not change the name to 'Truescience.com'?
Then again, when there is no refusal of AGW (any more), why does the world need a website like this? -
RedBaron at 07:40 AM on 6 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
No nigelj no one ever said we should put all eggs in one basket. Not IPCC Not Holistic management and not me.
This apparently is a lack of communication.
Potential for a sink size and rate does not mean that will be the actual any more than a 8 oz glass of water holds exactly 8 oz of water. This is the potential should all agriculture world wide adopt holistic management.
Clearly the herculean task is in changing to regenerative practises. Very likely most the agricultural infrastructure will not change any time soon.
But it is important to understand the potential, so when we say change maybe 10% of agriculture, a very reasonable and fairly easy thing to do, then we have 10% of that total potential we can count on.
Too often people misuse the reports like the IPCC and others have put out and take numbers that have already been adjusted due to probable % of adoption, and adjust them once again! So rather than 10% we end up with people thinking 10% of 10%.
The potential is as large as total emissions and could put us in drawdown if all was changed, but it won't be all changed any more than all fossil fuel emissions eliminated.
Neither one is going to happen.
But if we meet somewhere in the middle with dramatically reduced fossil fuel emissions, the soil sink is plenty large enough and the rate of sequestration fast enough that we could reach a draw down scenaio.
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michael sweet at 07:33 AM on 6 December 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Red Baron,
Replying to your comment at 31:
As I said before, your links do not support your wild claims. For example, your link to Project Drawdown. To start off the page you linked does not talk about grazing at all. It is your responsibility to provide correct links.
After searching the site I found this page on managed grazing. They claim that it might be possible to remove 16.34 gigatons of CO2 by the year 2050 using managed grazing. At comment 29, you claim that managed grazing could remove 35 gigatons of CO2 per year every year until 2050. Thus you claim approximately 65 times as much carbon dioxide fixed as your reference.
The teraton initiative you linked appears to be a new project by a journalist and author. He claims that the advantages of regenerative agriculture have not been systematically measured in the past and is trying to measure how much carbon is actually fixed. All the pages I saw were about general agriculture. I could not find a page on grazing. Their calculations were all back of the napkin with no supporting science.
The teraton initiative and you both make the mistake of claiming that if you remove the extra carbon dioxide from the atmosphere the problem will be solved. Reality is worse than that. If you start to remove carbon from the atmosphere, carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean will outgas making the problem bigger. Good luck.
You made the wild claim at the start of this discussion (lost because it was posted on another thread off topic) that in the past year or two scientists have come around to your ideas in mass. You have provided no link to even a review article, much less a summary report, to support this wild claim, not even one that does not support your claim. The references in the OP are so recent it is unimaginable that scientists would have changed their minds en masse.
We all wish that argiculture would be a magic bullet to solve AGW. Agriculture might provide a wedge or two, but many other actions will be required to turn back the problem of CO2 pollution. It does not help to motivate people to act if you falsely claim there is an easy way to solve the problem.
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