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Stephen Baines at 05:34 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"Lindzen says that there in not enough warming to validate IPCC's claims, so he should be "compelled to change their (his) ways or suffer serious consequencies." I note that this is fine according to the Comments Policy, not political and all in line with good science." Lindzen makes a statement about climate model predictions. That statement can be shown to be factually incorrect, teh models do not make those predictions (see post above). Nothing political about it. If he did so knowingly, it is a severe breach of public trust. Nobody is saying anyone should suffer consequences for stating his "feelings", "opinions" or "values." -
Berényi Péter at 05:33 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
I am looking for sources of quotations in the post above. Text "the observed warming is too small [...]" is found here: House of Lords (UK) Select Committee on Economic Affairs 2nd Report of Session 2005-06 The Economics of Climate Change Minutes of Evidence Memorandum by Professor Richard S Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology followed by Examination of Witness, page 45, 25 January 2005. Worth reading in full. However, I could not find "The models do say you should have seen 2-5 times more [...]". Is there anyone who knows the source and can provide a pointer to the original text? -
dana1981 at 05:32 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
CBD #34 - actually if you go back through the history of Lindzen's "Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected" arguments (linked in the article), he's very clear. He says based on GHGs only, the Earth should have warmed much more than it has. This would be true if aerosols and thermal inertia didn't exist, but it's hard to characterize their omission in anything other than a very poor light. Lindzen justifies these omissions by claiming they wouldn't make a significant difference in his calculations, which is clearly wrong, as this article shows. Yet Lindzen continues to make this factually wrong argument again and again and again and again. I think a couple commenters here need to make a distinction - just because a smart person says something doesn't mean there's any validity to it. Facts are facts and reality is reality. If a biologist told you that elephants are pink, that wouldn't change the reality that elephants are not pink. And a lot of people would question why that biologist claimed otherwise. That's what's happening with Lindzen. He's saying things which are indisputably wrong, which it's hard to believe he doesn't know are wrong, which makes people question why he's making these claims. -
CBDunkerson at 05:28 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
h pierce, Lindzen's comments in the article above were not to congress and not based on his own research. Did you even read the article? Basically, he said that climate models show alot more warming than has been observed. Problem is... they don't. Instead, he is essentially creating his own climate model where he takes the forcings used in standard models and then calculates warming from that without considering the ocean heat sinks, aerosol effects, and other 'anti warming' factors in the IPCC and other models. His model then comes up with vastly more warming than has been observed and based on this he denounces the models which match the observed warming. In short, it is exactly the same game Monckton played with the supposed 'IPCC warming graph' that appeared nowhere in the IPCC reports and had vastly different values than the warming graph which WAS in the report. An extreme form of the 'straw man' argument... their opponents predictions turned out to match observations, so they ignored the actual predictions and made up their own fake versions. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:25 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
36, Peter Freeman, You are entitled to your opinions, and your emotions. You're entitled to anger at one group of people, while giving another group a free pass for equivalent (but far worse) behavior. You're entitled to your own interpretation of events, albeit very, very different from mine and many others, and seemingly founded in extreme ignorance. You are not entitled to have seen "many dozens of graphs and read more analysis than I could ever understand" and then comment as you did (until you make a concerted effort to actually understand them). You are not entitled to misunderstand, misinterpret, and misrepresent history as you did by saying "in 1988, before a single 'scientist' had done any work, the IPCC knew.." [For that one, I'd strongly suggest that you go read Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming, to see exactly how far back the science goes, as well as how solid it is.] You do not get to bring angry invective to the table, disparaging everyone (especially after your first post complained of exactly that behavior!). What you do get to do is to educate yourself. This site is full of science. It's even organized into neat little beginner/intermediate/advanced tabs. The Internet is a wealth of information, presented at many levels, and you can learn enough to contribute a valid position to the discussion, as long as you are wary and seek out true, reputable science sites, and not the myriad venomous faux-science sites that will mislead and confuse you rather than educate you. Go do some reading. Fill the holes in your knowledge. You do not get a place at the table until you do. -
Stephen Baines at 05:23 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@ Finglestrumpet Look, I feel your pain and frustration. But I think you are apportioning too much power to the scientific community in this instance. The fact that there is actually a public "debate" on humans are causing global warming despite clear statements from so many scientific societies is exhibit A for the case that the scientific establishment only contributes to the public debate - it does not set the terms, especially in the short run. Exhibit B is that censure, even if justified, creates the appearance of a "witch-hunt" and martyrdom (Cue cries of Galileo!). Development of a governmental mechanism to limit public statements would certainly run afoul of academic freedom and freedom of speech concerns that protect all sides of the debate (including Mike Mann). It would also almost certainly take longer to get agreement on how to control access to the debate while preserving those freedoms as the debate itself would take. Basically it's a distraction. Could the societies and MIT set some ethics guidelines regarding how Lindzen protrays his views in public (much as government agencies do for, say, NOAA sicentists like Conway when talking about his book with Oreskes)? Possibly. Not sure it will make a lot of difference. The real problem is not that Lindzen is allowed to speak, it's that people give him credence without checking his statements. Scientific illiteracy, the complexity of the issues, politics, PR by vested interests are all at work. As a scientist, though, I have to believe that the evidence eventually prevails over the long haul. It has time and time again in previous debates where many of the same forces were at work. Time is of the essence, but you need not convince everybody to win this debate... Can Lindzen of Christy can be reprimanded for making demonstrably incorrect statements in front of congress...maybe. But, you still have to prove they deliberately misled. Were any scientists held accountable for their testimony during the tobacco hearings? Just saw PFs post. Double wow. That would be exhibit C. -
CBDunkerson at 05:20 AM on 23 April 2011Climate's changed before
ciclista, see CO2 was higher in the past. Basically, the Sun puts out more energy as it gets older. Thus, since CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) act to retain some of the Sun's energy within the climate system a fainter Sun means more GHGs were needed to have the same temperature. -
Climate's changed before
ciclista - A good question, which has already been discussed on this website in the Does high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2 thread. Long story short - CO2 has been higher in the past, but other forcings have a history too. The sun was dimmer hundreds of millions of years ago (about 4% during the period you mentioned), and the combinations of forcings including CO2 and sunlight match the climate record. See also CO2 is not the only driver of climate. -
ciclista at 05:08 AM on 23 April 2011Climate's changed before
Looking back for some millions of years, earth atmosphere generally showed concentrations of CO2 much higher than today. This leads me to expect much higher average global temperatures in former times too. However, talking in timescale of millions of years, the perspective of strong correlation between temp end CO2 does not match that perfectly like date published from the ice cores, that go 400.000 years back. Especially for the period about 450 millions of years ago, when there were temperatures like today, although the CO2 concentration was 10 times today´s value. How can this low temperature be explained. Vulcanoes? Can anyone help me to understand? -
Peter Freeman at 05:05 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Wow ( -Moderation Complaints snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) If money was where it was to stop at, it would not be so bad. But look at what is being called for on THIS forum. It is not unique and more and more there is a culture appearing that is calling for this! funglestrumpet suggests a solution for Lindzen and others: "There needs to be a climate (no pun intended) where people that go beyond the realm of legitimate differences of opinion - and I believe that that is what is under discussion here - are compelled to change their ways or suffer serious consequencies." So let me understand this. Lindzen says that there in not enough warming to validate IPCC's claims, so he should be "compelled to change their (his) ways or suffer serious consequencies." I note that this is fine according to the Comments Policy, not political and all in line with good science. ( -Off-topic snipped- ) I am sure this method would satisfactorily get as much warming as anyone could possibly want out of Mr Lindzen :) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) Polotics or science? come on be honest nowResponse:[DB] Please focus on the topic of this post.
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h pierce at 05:01 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
You guys should refrain from bad-mouthing Lindzen, Christy, Spencer, Carter et al because they are expressing a professional opinion based upon their personal observations and research. In particular, when they give testimony to the US congress they swear an oath to tell the truth, the whole and nothing but the truth. Lying to the US Congress is a very serious felony and carries severe penalties. -
CBDunkerson at 04:36 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP, on Lindzen specifically it is difficult to tell what he is thinking. His claim that climate models predicted warming 2 to 5 times what has actually been observed is obviously false... that'd mean models were showing 1.6 to 4.0 C warming by now, when in fact they only predict those levels in future decades. What he apparently means is that the climate forcings calculated by the models would result in 2 to 5 times as much warming as has been observed... if we ignored the existence of the oceans, aerosols, and other 'anti warming' factors which the models take into account, and thus do not predict the extreme warming he claimed they do. The question is what should be done about such blatantly false statements. Is it simply 'freedom of speech' and there is no recourse when scientists mis-inform the public? Or should there be academic and/or legal consequences? Personally, I think Lindzen has gone well past the bounds of simple 'skepticism' or even 'contrarianism'. If these false statements are mistakes then they are egregious ones of a sort I wouldn't expect a competent scientist to make. -
dana1981 at 04:26 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
As requested, we're working on a post comparing Hansen's 1988 projections to our interpretation of what Lindzen's projection would have looked like (since he didn't actually make any specific predictions), based on his 1989 talk. I think it's going to be an interesting post, with a very telling graphic. I'm guessing we'll publish this early to mid next week. -
NewYorkJ at 04:08 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
That indeed was a good find by Jimbo. "The trouble is that the earlier data suggest that one is starting at what probably was an anomalous minimum near 1880" That assertion seems to be the exact opposite of reality. The period near 1880 suggests a relative high. HadCRUT3 "The entire record would more likely be saying that the rise is 0.1 degree plus or minus 0.3 degree." We can calculate the linear trend from 1880, 1870, 1890, etc. to 1989 and get roughly the same +0.5 C. We should also allow for earlier versions of datasets possibly showing different trends, for which Lindzen may have based his claims from, although looking at Hansen et al. 1981, I don't think there's a notable trend difference during the period of record. From Hansen 1981, it certainly appears his projections are spot on. "It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural variability by the end of the century, and there's a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of shifting climatic zones, erosion of the west Antarctic ice sheet with a consquent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage." Hansen 1981 Hansen also discusses ocean heat capacity, something missing from any Lindzen "analysis". -
Clouds provide negative feedback
Sphaerica is quite correct - the Trenberth diagrams are summaries of a great deal of data, not a climate model themselves. Which is why attempting to model cloud feedback directly and solely from the Trenberth energy 'budget' without understanding the underlying physical processes and their response to changes is rather quixotic. -
Berényi Péter at 03:51 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#29 CBDunkerson at 02:31 AM on 23 April, 2011 BP, who exactly did I accuse of deception? I am glad to hear you have not referred to specifically Dr. Lindzen and called him a liar as one might have inferred from the context. Neither have you accused him with false testimony to Congress and called for a criminal trial against him. If so, you are expected to squarely confirm all these points, one by one. ( -Snip- )Moderator Response: [DB] Off-topic meanderings snipped. Please focus on the topic of this thread; thanks! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:40 AM on 23 April 2011CO2 Reductions Will Not Cool the Planet? We Know
21, Phila, loga-rythmically Sounds musically scientific. I'm not only convinced, but it's got a beat, and you can dance to it! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:38 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
DB/Mods, A brief note concerning the deleted "hate" post. I actually think it would be good if SS did what RC did, and had the equivalent of "the Bore Hole" (perhaps Septic Science would be a good name) -- a thread to which to move posts that should be deleted, along with the responses (which would be a thread where it is not possible to add posts, only read them). The Bore Hole at RC provides me with a fair amount of entertainment, and I think it serves a purpose, to show people that they can't just drop drive-by stink bombs without consequence, and to let people have a one-stop-shopping location to see the sort of inanity and invective that some people do deliver, but safely quarantined from the real debate.Moderator Response: [DB] That is being considered. In the meantime, everyone's forbearance is appreciated. Thanks for the suggestions! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:33 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
120, BP, I disagree with your logic. You cannot count the 78 absorbed by the atmosphere as eligible to be reflected. So it's not 79 of 341, it's 79 if 341-78, or 79 of 263, so it's not 79/(341*0.66)=0.35, it's 79/(263*0.66)=0.455. And, again, the 0.66 is a gross estimate. After all, what matters isn't how much of the earth's surface is under cloud cover, but how much of the daylight surface, at what angle of incidence (as you said, latitudinal distribution, as well as proximity to the day/night boundary), and what type of clouds. All in all, to me it's a total non-issue. I see no reason to doubt the numbers. Especially since, in the scheme of things, this is a bird's-eye view over-simplification diagram meant to help people better understand how energy moves through the earth's climate system, and what the term "energy budget" actually means. It's not like this is the foundation for all AOGCMs and all of climate science. -
Bob Lacatena at 03:20 AM on 23 April 2011Video on why record-breaking snow doesn't mean global warming has stopped
25, muoncounter, Interesting!!! I notice, too, while over at Nature, that they have just launched Nature Climate Change (Vol 1, Issue 1, April, 2011). At $112 the subscription is a bit pricy (especially since it's not all encompassing, e.g. the article you posted is not there... I guess it's "weather"), but I'm considering it. -
Phila at 02:47 AM on 23 April 2011CO2 Reductions Will Not Cool the Planet? We Know
(logarythmically) Well, that sounds scientific. I'm convinced! -
CBDunkerson at 02:31 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP, who exactly did I accuse of deception? If you go back and actually read you'll see that I made an argument about the limits of 'freedom of speech' in regards to false statements. I didn't actually ascribe false statements to anyone... though even that would not violate the comments policy. Only ascribing negative motives to actual people is at issue. -
dana1981 at 02:29 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Like previous commenters, I really have no idea what Arkadiusz @ 21 is trying to argue. -
Berényi Péter at 02:20 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#31 Ron Crouch at 01:42 AM on 23 April, 2011 The misrepresentations to the public in general by Lindzen and others doesn't really concern me that much (that freedom of speech thing). #32 CBDunkerson at 02:01 AM on 23 April, 2011 Ron, I have to wonder whether 'freedom of speech' should include 'freedom to lie' in this way. First point of Comments Policy:- No accusations of deception. Any accusations of deception, fraud, dishonesty or corruption will be deleted. This applies to both sides. Stick to the science. You may criticise a person's methods but not their motives.
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RyanStarr at 02:17 AM on 23 April 2011Antarctica is gaining ice
I've got a query, or two. The surface temperature over the past decade has been mostly steady and yet we attribute significant ice trends to the warming climate. Well over the past century we recorded significant unprecented global warming, so shouldn't the polar regions also have undergone significant observable change in that time? Is there evidence of that? (extrapolate those charts back another 100 years over a period when it actually warmed) I don't see how we can attribute polar ice trends to climate change when the climate isn't changing but ignore the much longer period when it changed a lot. The poles must be significantly different places now to what they were in 1900 if the period 2000-2010 is considered significant when climate change took a breather. (Yes we're limited by the fact that the polar regions haven't always been accessible, but scientists have their ways) Or on the same track we might ask why people are using 10 year (and less!) observation periods to glean affects of global warming at the poles and yet we would never use such periods for land observations because they're too short. -
CBDunkerson at 02:01 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Ron, I have to wonder whether 'freedom of speech' should include 'freedom to lie' in this way. After all, the classic example of the limit of freedom of speech is, 'yelling FIRE in a crowded theater which is not actually on fire'. So there is already a concept that untruthful speech is not allowed when it creates a danger. Likewise, we prevent advertisers from making false statements about their products. Frankly, I'm surprised that false statements about global warming haven't ended up in court yet. There has clearly been false testimony to Congress... which is illegal. There have clearly been cases of defamation against Michael Mann and others. The public statements of many AGW deniers have been both untrue and dangerous. Sooner or later the matter will have to end up in the courtroom... and for all the flaws of modern justice they do at least still require that evidence be true... at which point AGW deniers don't have a leg to stand upon. -
Berényi Péter at 01:53 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
#92 Sphaerica at 21:57 PM on 21 April, 2011 I'd suggest that of that 341, since 78 is absorbed by the atmosphere, only 263 is available to be reflected (although this is a gross estimate, since it's more complex than that). If one assumes a cloud cover of .66 then 174 of that 263 is subject to cloud cover. 79 reflected from 174 gives .45, which is well within the ranges given by Hansen 1998 -- even at the upper end. No, that's not correct. Trenberth's figure clearly shows that according to him from the average 341 W/m2 incoming shortwave solar radiation at ToA 78 W/m2 is "Absorbed by Atmosphere" and 79 W/m2 is "Reflected by Clouds and Atmosphere" (right back to space, yes). Therefore a fraction of that 79 W/m2 is reflected by the atmosphere, not clouds, so somewhat less than 79 W/m2 remains to be reflected by global cloud cover. If cloud fraction is 0.66 as you say and no short wave radiation is reflected by the atmosphere from cloud free regions, then average cloud albedo is 79/341/0.66 (=0.35) which is way too small (should be more than 0.42). On the other hand if there is some reflection from the atmosphere in cloud free regions, average cloud albedo comes out even smaller.
It may be the case that average cloud fraction projected to a plane perpendicular to incoming solar rays is much smaller than 0.66. It should be close to 0.5 to bring cloud albedo back to a reasonable range. It would simply mean cloud fraction around polar regions is much higher than the global average while it is lower above the rest of the globe. I do not know if it is the case or not, I have not seen data on average latitudinal distribution of cloud cover. If anyone knows a link to such measurements, that could help a lot.
However, if cloud fraction is so high in polar regions indeed, it would diminish ice-albedo feedback tremendously, because, unlike in glacial times, there is not much ice to be melted elsewhere.
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Ron Crouch at 01:42 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
The misrepresentations to the public in general by Lindzen and others doesn't really concern me that much (that freedom of speech thing). After all are we not pummelled on a daily basis with misrepresentations as we conduct our lives? It's up to each individual to wade through the relentless inputs on a daily basis and sort out the garbage from the truth. Unfortunately few have the luxury to ponder detail and thus are easily swayed. A certain person proved this to be the case in January 1933 (oh how history repeats). What should be of concern is the testimony before such bodies as Congress, and what, if any, analysis of that testimony is taken into consideration by policy makers. -
Chris G at 01:40 AM on 23 April 2011A Convention for Persons Displaced by Climate Change
Many thanks to Albatross, Dan Olner, and Adelady for their information and perspectives. Thoughts: Honestly, if the nations of the world have done so little to address the cause of the problem, I have little hope that they will be willing to proactively invest in mitigating solutions to the problem. Climate refugees will always be difficult to get an exact count on. It's like cancer and smoking, you can't really say with high confidence that any individual contracted cancer because of smoking, but you can say with high confidence that the incidence of cancer is higher amongst smokers. Is it just my eyes, or is there a reasonable association with areas labeled as being at risk for droughts in the 2005 map above and the droughts that have recently occurred in Russia, Texas, and narrowly avoided in China? -
Albatross at 01:20 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Arkadiusz @21, I'm sorry, but am not sure whether you posted that to critique or support Lindzn's obfuscation. -
muoncounter at 01:20 AM on 23 April 2011Video on why record-breaking snow doesn't mean global warming has stopped
Interesting recent letter in Nature: Kaspi and Schneider 2011 Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves—nearly stationary Rossby waves—generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. ... Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries. Figure below: Surface temperature deviation averaged over northern hemisphere winter months and across 40 years. Credit Tapio Schneider Yohai Kaspi
-- source
A standing wave pattern with a wavelength the distance from Seattle to London?
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khayhoe at 01:19 AM on 23 April 2011Skeptical Science in other media
I appreciate the discussion here. Nicholas's statistics are very much in line with my own experience. Moreover, those who believe that the seriousness of global warming has been exaggerated are generally one and the same as those who believe in a young earth. Here is the difference, though, in my mind: Climate change is an urgent problem. It is already seriously affecting our planet and our own health and welfare. If we continue to deny the reality of the problem and don't do something about it within a relatively short period of time, we will be facing some very dangerous consequences of our actions. On the other hand, we (by which I mean any one of us here on planet earth) can happily and safely believe in a young earth for a very long time without this belief having any direct global repercussions. (I understand there are indirect ones regarding our perspective on science--but not in the same ballpark as the very real effects of climate change already manifesting themselves today) So in reaching out to my faith community, I think it is very important to differentiate between these points. On the second one, we can afford to wait. On the first, we cannot. -
funglestrumpet at 00:53 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Stephen Bains @15 "I don't see any mechanism that would be relevant really, given Lindzen has such a willing audience outside of academia. He has already lost his credibility on this issue in the academic community. What difference does it make?" 1 If no mechanism, create one. 2 The difference it would make is that any public 'striking off' that would result would curtail his appearance before willing audiencies and restrict his being quoted by those politicians with a hidden agenda. If, as you say, Lindzen is discredited within the academic community, yet is called upon to give talks to radio shows and evidence before congressional committees, then something is wrong, very wrong. On any issue, such a thing would be bad, but on one as serious as climate change has the potential to be, it borders on criminal behaviour. Clearly, Lindzen, Christy and suchlike would be wary of behaving the way they do if at risk of being subject to a meaningful sanction. The question that springs to my mind is why is the scientific community so blasé about something that brings all of them into disrepute in the eyes of the general public? The average person on the street has no idea that Lindzen is not to be trusted. All they see is two sides of a difficult (in their eyes) argument going hammer and tongs at each other. The action needed to combat climate change is dramatic and getting more so as time passes. Why on earth would anyone support such measures when as far as they can see there is very real doubt regarding the need? As a relative outsider, it seems to me that the longer the world holds back from making the changes needed, the more it can be said that the IPCC, and the rest of scientific community that agrees with it, is winning all the battles, but slowly losing the war. There needs to be a climate (no pun intended) where people that go beyond the realm of legitimate differences of opinion - and I believe that that is what is under discussion here - are compelled to change their ways or suffer serious consequencies. What those should be and how to administer them is up the scientific community to decide. That is never going to happen if there is no discussion on the matter. All I am trying to do is sow the seeds that may lead to one. I am not qualified to do more and if the issue were not so serious, wouldn't ever bother to do this much. -
Alteredstory at 00:42 AM on 23 April 2011Mars is warming
Something that just came out, and may have an impact: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110421190450.htm Large dry ice deposits in Mars's South pole, that look as if they are currently in a dispersal phase - sublimating into the atmosphere as CO2.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Activated link -
Ron Crouch at 00:27 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
113, RW1, From the ISCCP data, which says that clouds cover 2/3rds of the surface. This means 1/3rd of the surface is clear sky (i.e. cloudless). What about cloud pressure? What about optical thickness? What about cloud albedo? How much is low cloud? How much is high cloud? What is the moisture content in the air column? What are the particulate concentrations in the air column? And there's more. Not quite so black and white is it? -
The Skeptical Chymist at 23:59 PM on 22 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Arkadiusz @ 21, I read your post and I don't find it convincing. You don't provide any evidence Linzden is correct and most of what you say doesn't even refer to transient climate sensitivity (the subject of this post). One thing though, you quotes from Linzden appear to have him claiming that if there is a discrepancy between the surface temperature data / climate models and the satellite data, then the satellite data will be correct. A little history shows we have been here before and it was the satellite data that was shown to be wrong. Considering how much more difficult it is to get accurate temperature data out of a satellite (or radiosondes for that matter) compared to a ground based thermometers I'm skeptical of such claims. -
Clouds provide negative feedback
RW1 - In reference to Sphaerica's question, on cloud feedback, keep in mind that both Sphaerica and I (as in my post here) are asking about changes in cloud response from the current state, which are what will amplify or (as you seem to be arguing) damp temperature changes. -
Bob Lacatena at 23:40 PM on 22 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
RW1, Now that we've identified the flaws in your calculations and can do away with them... 1) Do you have any actual evidence at all that cloud feedbacks would or should be negative? 2) Do you have any response to the question that I've posed 3 times (posts 27, 71, 90) and KR once (post 94)? For the fifth time, do you have any response to the fact that multiple studies, using a wide variety of methods, all point to a climate sensitivity of 3 or greater, and so the chance of cloud feedbacks being negative or neutral is slim to none? -
Bob Lacatena at 23:25 PM on 22 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
115, RW1,The surface cannot be "getting" 517 watts in, as it's only emitting 396 W/m^2.
You are ignoring the 23 reflected, 17 transported through thermals and 80 transported through evapotranspiration (396 + 23 + 17 + 80 = 516).Show me the energy in = energy out calculations...
Apologies... I mistyped the 290. The number is for space is 341 in and 341 out (79 reflected by clouds + 23 reflected by the surface + and 239 emitted by the atmosphere/clouds). The 239 comes from ignoring the reflected incoming radiation, which for all intents and purposes never affects the system. So 341 in - 102 reflected = 239. Similarly, 341 out - 102 reflected = 239. Everything balances. -
Bob Lacatena at 23:18 PM on 22 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
113, RW1,From the ISCCP data, which says that clouds cover 2/3rds of the surface. This means 1/3rd of the surface is clear sky (i.e. cloudless).
No. The ability of clouds to absorb IR is different from "clear sky" (i.e. the atmosphere). One cannot simply take a percentage. It's a meaningless estimation.If my calculations are in error, why do they accurately predict the correct brightness temperature of 255K?
Where do you do that, and how? -
Tom Curtis at 21:59 PM on 22 April 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel @1011, where I discussing the mechanisms of the greenhouse effect I would agree with you. As it happens, however, I am discussing the claim by some deniers that the GHE violates the second law of thermodynamics because the Surface radiation is greater than the incoming Solar radiation and/or because the back radiation is absorbed by the surface, which is warmer than the atmosphere. Neither of those claims is based on the density/temperature profile of the atmosphere, and therefore a simplified model for discussing those objections need not include those profiles. Now if you have a more subtle 2nd law objection to the GHE, just state for the record that your objection is not based either on S < Surf, and the surface absorbing AtmDn; and that the model described above does not violate any laws of thermodynamics and then we can proceed on to your more subtle objections. On the other hand, if you do not have a second law objection, may I remind you of the topic, and that the Moderators have already told you:"The claim that lapse rate or gravitational compression is responsible for the GHE is not directly relevant to this thread, as has already been addressed in multiple links provided. Please take this particular point of discussion elsewhere."
Consequently if you are not explicitly discussing 2nd law issues, may I suggest you take your discussion elsewhere. -
Alec Cowan at 21:23 PM on 22 April 2011The e-mail 'scandal' travesty in misquoting Trenberth on
@Ken Lambert #157 Good for you Ken that you set aside figures; whenever you want to get back to that, go to "It's not warming" or any other more suitable post and let me know. I hope that severe cooling I pointed during that very specific period of 2010 has made you realize you need to learn more about how the planet works. You know I'm not patient with people who reason in a way that reminds me the sound of chalk continually squeaking against a blackboard -unless they are, admittedly, students-. Now you are coming back to what is solid ground for you: Rhetorics.Yet if there were a 'hack' or 'leak' of emails between businesspersons engaged in the oil, nuclear or coal industries, which cast doubt on their theories and public positions - I would bet "London to a brick" that such emails would be screaming out of the internet, the environmentalist industry, and the hackers or leakers would be extolled as public whistleblower heroes deserving of the 'Assange prize'.What an easy way to get some real states. Wait! You said "I would". I say you was likely thinking along the way of "it takes one to know one", but sadly it was just your mirror. You speak of Assange and forget that there are many people (CIA, SMS, RVS, MI6, etc.) that knew those mails -and milliards more- and that they have much to gain (or lose), not from showing themselves as hackers but from following the "inner web of the conspiracy" and revealing it in the proper moment. Imagine Russia, with a lot to lose if this anti AGW politics go on, *not having* (was it good, the *spell* marks: alakazaam!) access to those emails or other "incriminatory" emails and *not having* good scientists to support an explanatory campaign. The decent thing to do is a reality check. The fact is that all get us back to a Hollywood plot and a screenplay-like partial withdrawal of logic that accompanies it if you like to enjoy the movie. Your diasporic urban tribe have made from the "climategate mistique" its own version of Antitrust(2001) with your kin playing the character of Ryan Phillipee. Or maybe it has touches of The Da Vinci Code. Whatever, but the problem stays when one's epistemology is dictated in front of a TV set and not in an academic hall without the ability to tell the difference. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 21:17 PM on 22 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Worth be simplified - Figure the first - to this scheme - how lot depends on the positive feedbacks! (Well, the clouds are balanced "to zero".) Their opinions Lindzen - similar to those cited by Dana1981 February 4 - short (in the form of post), he also presented here. “The larger predictions from climate models are due to the fact that, within these models, the more important greenhouse substances, water vapor and clouds, act to greatly amplify whatever CO2 does. This is referred to as a positive feedback.” “For warming since 1979, there is a further problem. The dominant role of cumulus convection in the tropics requires that temperature approximately follow what is called a moist adiabatic profile. This requires that warming in the tropical upper troposphere be 2-3 times greater than at the surface. Indeed, all models do show this, but the data doesn't and this means that something is wrong with the data.” “Under the circumstances, it is reasonable to conclude that the problem resides in the surface data, and that the actual trend at the surface is about 60% too large. Even the claimed trend is larger than what models would have projected but for the inclusion of an arbitrary fudge factor due to aerosol cooling.” “Thus, Santer, et al (2008), argue that stretching uncertainties in observations and models might marginally eliminate the inconsistency. That the data should always need correcting to agree with models is totally implausible and indicative of a certain corruption within the climate science community.” "On the planet the most wonderful constituent is water with its remarkable thermodynamic properties. It's the obvious candidate for the thermostat of our system, and yet in most of these models, all water-related feedbacks are positive.” Lindzen 1989. Main attention: Lindzen then (and today) does not deny the warming! “What we have is data that says that maybe it occurs, but it's within the noise” - 1989 As you can see past the main concerns of Lindzen - against the AGW theory (with all objections against the this term) are - for him - to date. And not just for him for example ... “ ... IPCC misrepresentations that haven't already been dealt with on this site ...” Well, maybe my favorite: Landsea, Christopher W., Gabriel A. Vecchi, Lennart Bengtsson, Thomas R. Knutson, 2010: Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts*. J. Climate, 23, 2508–2519.: “Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” And this - "to set" example this Figure. -
CBDunkerson at 20:56 PM on 22 April 2011CO2 was higher in the past
5.35 W/m^2 is the measured radiative forcing constant for carbon dioxide. As for terminology... we are currently in an interglacial (i.e. relatively warm) period of the ongoing ice age (i.e. geological period where large ice caps are present). What you have probably heard people saying is that raising CO2 to ~500 ppm might prevent the next glacial period entirely. That is, normally we would expect the current interglacial period to end some time in the next 15,000 years or so and then be followed by a long period of increasing cold which would cause glaciers to spread out from the poles for ~90,000 years and then retreat as the next warming cycle comes around. However, if CO2 were raised to 500 ppm then it would likely take more than 100,000 years to return to pre-industrial levels (barring some new technology to sequester it faster than would happen naturally) and could thus keep the planet warm enough that we skip the next glacial cycle entirely. That'd actually be a good thing... but given that it is thousands of years away not quite as pressing as dealing with the warming we will see over the next two centuries. -
damorbel at 20:04 PM on 22 April 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #1010 Tom Curtis you wrote:- "But we are discussing an idealized system kept deliberately simple for clarity of discussion." Surely that is the whole point? That is why I offered the constant temperature/density by way of comparison. Simplified models are indeed very useful to help clarify the basics but they only work if they include the major parameters. Leaving out the gravitational force {- snip -}Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Gravitational lapse rate was declared off topic at #972. It's been demonstrated repeatedly that this idea is irrelevant here. -
Tom Curtis at 19:21 PM on 22 April 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Damorbel @1009: Yes, the radiation up is less than the radiation down from the atmosphere because the atmosphere is thicker and warmer closer to the Earth than near the tropopause. But we are discussing an idealized system kept deliberately simple for clarity of discussion. Use of such simplified models is standard in physics, whether it be with gravitational equations from point masses, or the use of frictionless surfaces. There is no principled objection to using such simplified models, and in the simplified model, AtmUp = AtmDn. It follows that your point is a mere distraction rather than a contribution. -
damorbel at 16:30 PM on 22 April 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #998 Tom Curtis you wrote:- "Because thermal radiation is the same in all directions" At the molecular level - yes. But the atmosphere is denser at lower levels so there are more molecules emitting. Also the lower levels are warmer so they emit more intensely. This should not be a surprise since it corresponds with the visible part of the spectrum, there is a net output of radiation, it is the reason why stars shine. Further you wrote:- "if the atmosphere were 303 K, then it would radiate 480 w/m^2 up, and the same down. That would violate conservation of energy." If you accept that the exchange of energy between layers of the atmosphere can be characterised in W/m^2 then "480 w/m^2 up, and the same down" merely makes the case for constant density and temperature. These conditions do not exist in the atmosphere so it makes for a rather pointless discussion. There is no point in arguing about 'violation of conservation of energy' unless you account for all energy, assuming constant density (or temperature) in a gravitationally bound system automatically excludes 'conservation of energy'. -
Albatross at 15:32 PM on 22 April 2011A Convention for Persons Displaced by Climate Change
Tom @44, After Googling "UNEP +2005 +50 million +refugees" earlier today and reading through some of the hyperventelating drivel from some media outlets (including Der Spiegel) and the denialosphere, your post came as a breath of fresh air. Thanks for this and for stating the facts. This is again another case of the contrarians and deniers of AGW demonstrating their bias, prejudice and asymmetrical skeptical and critical thinking skills. Disgusting. Tom, data from the iDMCmay be helpful. Specifically, see their 2009 report titled "Monitoring disaster displacement in the context of climate change ", in which they state: "At least 36 million people were displaced by sudden-onset natural disasters which occurred in 2008, including over 20 million displaced by climate-related, sudden-onset disasters, according to a new report by NRC/IDMC and OCHA. In comparison, 4.6 million people were newly internally displaced during the year by conflict and violence. " I do not know much about iDMC, so caveat emptor-- but from what little I did read tonight they seem reputable and work with OCHA. -
trunkmonkey at 15:26 PM on 22 April 2011CO2 was higher in the past
Ok,ok I'm stumbling over nomenclature here. I never liked the icehouse/hothouse, snowball thing anyway. We are DEFINITELY in a glacial period. Glacial periods have their ocillations. We are currently in a warm phase. Our glacial period is called the Pleistocene. It has been with us for a couple million years, and happens to coincide, generally, with the evolution of the brains that allow us to carry on this discussion. The last glacial period of any consequence was the so called KT about 230 mya at the Permian-Triassic boundary. This one coincided with the greatest extinctions in the history of life. The notable one before that was at the end of the Ordovician about 450 mya. There were extinctions but only a few liverworts and mosses and possibly insects had made it on to land. The really wierd thing is that there are glacial tillites with a carbonate cap in Australia, and if we can believe the apparent polar wander paths Australia was pretty close to the equator then. There was another glacial period about 650 million years ago in the Proterozoic. Everynoe starts getting really grumpy and calling each other names and the apparent polar wander paths diverge before this. You can see that glacial periods are rare in earth history, ocurring roughly every 200 my. Between hese periods Gloval Average Temperature and CO2 are thought to be higher than now. Where dies the 5.35 come from in DeltaF = 5.35*ln(C/C0)? -
Philippe Chantreau at 14:42 PM on 22 April 2011The e-mail 'scandal' travesty in misquoting Trenberth on
KL "AGW enthusiasts are terribly worried about 'stealing' of emails that cast doubt on the measurements behind the AGW case" This characterization is wrong and insulting in several ways. The extent to which deniers are willing to twist data, misrepresent it or put forth outright lies has been extensively demonstrated. Christopher Monckton is a case in point, backing up at nothing to mislead his audience, even tilting a graph to give the impression that there is no trend. I am especially concerned of late with McIntyre and McKitrick fraudulent paper on Mann's statistical methods. I strongly recommend all to read in details the DeepClimate post about this pathetic bag of lies. http://deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication-and-due-diligence-wegman-style/ I note also that the transparency advocated by deniers falls on deaf ear with Wegman, but the denier blogs have been eerily silent about it. If it's OK for e-mails to be stolen, shouldn't the materials for the Wegman report be released? Where are the skeptics advocating for it? Nowhere, because their double standards prevent it. BP has been challenged on several occasions on his accusations of fraud that were exclusively based on misunderstanding of materials referred on his site, his best answer was "I'll get back to you." Considering what deniers like McIntyre & McKitrick, Monckton, Beck, Wegman, etc, etc are willing to pull off, no piece of information whatsoever is safe in their hands. Even an invitation for lunch will be shown as evidence of conspiracy or other lunatic nonsense. Yes the reality based among us are worried. Deniers, of course, are not. After all, they have savory characters like Monckton, Wegman or Cuccinelli on their side, what could possibly go wrong?Moderator Response: [DB] Hotlinked URL.
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