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Camburn at 14:50 PM on 12 March 2011The name is Bond...Gerard Bond.
Thank you DB. I tried to convert the link but still have not figured out how to do that. What the paper shows, at least to me, is that there is an obvious link to the hydrological cycle world wide and Bond events. The changing of the thermocline in the Northern Hemisphere that happens during a bonna fide Bond event affects not only the Western NA continent, but also South America. Even tho the temperature may cool in the NH and rise in the SH, the overall affect is a world wide phenomenon.Moderator Response: [DB] If you go here, you find tips on how to do that. For links or documents like pdf's, copy the first indented line of html string (everything between the leftmost-arrow and rightmost-arrow, including the arrows), replacing the text between the double-quotes with your desired source url plus giving some kind of description/name of the linked page/source.For images, look under the section that says IMPORTANT. Copy the html tag string that appears there into your comment box, insert your desired url string for your link source between the double-quote marks and then Bob's-your-uncle (you're ready-to-go).
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muoncounter at 14:48 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
"The winter weather is weather... " That's just half of NOAA's conclusion; I'll repeat the remainder: ... we can make probabilistic statements about future climate, given a long data record and a good understanding of the state of the forces that drive the system. This is not inconsistent with statements made by Zwiers: ... human influence is now affecting the frequency and intensity of high impact events that put people and their livelihoods at risk. Moreover, studies of two specific events (the European 2003 heat wave, and flooding in the UK in the autumn of 2000) have shown that the odds of those events had been increased substantially relative to the world that would have been in the absence of human induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Nor is it inconsistent with the statements made here: Weather in a given region occurs in such a complex and unstable environment, driven by such a multitude of factors, that no single weather event can be pinned solely on climate change. In that sense, it's correct to say that the Moscow heat wave was not caused by climate change. However, if one frames the question slightly differently: "Would an event like the Moscow heat wave have occurred if carbon dioxide levels had remained at pre-industrial levels," the answer, Hansen asserts, is clear: "Almost certainly not." The frequency of extreme warm anomalies increases disproportionately as global temperature rises. "Were global temperature not increasing, the chance of an extreme heat wave such as the one Moscow experienced, though not impossible, would be small," Hansen says. -
Camburn at 14:36 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
muoncounter: Thank you for reading the link and commenting on it. The winter weather is weather and not in any way tied to AGW. The only reason I brought this up is that Mr. Zwiers brought it up in his testimony. -
Camburn at 14:33 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
DB@46: I didn't know that the site in question was a skeptic site. The graph came up in another discussion and when I saw that it was NOAA data including the link I deemed it credible. I have not been to the site in question so I can't comment on it one way or the other. The graph only confirmed other research that I have read concerning hydrological cycles in the US. This is something that I am keenly interested in as it directly affects what I do. Thank you for letting me know about that site.Moderator Response: [DB] A kindly word of advice: always seek out the source of any graph or data that interests you on blogs. Even well-meaning persons make honest mistakes. There are those less well-intentioned whose presentations lose fidelity when compared to the sources they claim to cite. The originating source is typically most credible. When even a credible source, such as NOAA, cites a study that interests you, check the original study (where possible) and those that cite it as a basis for further research. The true skeptic follows that route. -
muoncounter at 14:19 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
Camburn, "I posted a link from NOAA concerning the winter of 2009-2010. Has anyone actually read it?" Yep, especially when I got this far: Still, bitter cold temperatures and blizzards of historic proportions prompted the questions: Why were there so many historic snowstorms in the mid-Atlantic region this winter? Are they evidence that global warming isn’t happening? No, the globe is warming. But the real story behind the mid-Atlantic’s winter isn’t about climate change, it’s about climate variability. Climate variability, the term scientists use, explains why record-breaking snowstorms and global warming can coexist. In fact, many of the weather events observed this winter help to confirm our understanding of the climate system, including links between weather and climate. ... predicting any single weather event is inherently difficult and why we don’t base our assessments of climate on any single weather event. And it shows why we can make probabilistic statements about future climate, given a long data record and a good understanding of the state of the forces that drive the system. --emphasis added Once again, the message is that specific weather events have disparate causes; but the overall warming pattern makes what were once infrequent and unlikely events more likely. Whoever first said, 'If you don't like the weather, wait 10 minutes' knew what he was talking about. -
muoncounter at 13:57 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
"Rain is a normal part of them is it not? Is not the destruction caused by the energy of the hurricane? Which is bore out by wind speeds etc? The destruction is caused by the winds. " This discrepancy is discussed on the hurricanes and global warming thread. Large rain events, also very destructive, are not included in the ACE index. -
muoncounter at 13:51 PM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
"Where the energy of the sun strikes causes more "feedback" than any of the GHG's. The location of the long term insolation changes matter most, not the magnitude." I find this mystifying. The comment starts with seasonal variation, then morphs to 'long term insolation change.' This is not the first time a 'skeptic' has attempted to interpret seasonal temperature change as an argument against AGW. But it makes no sense: All of that system has been in place for a long, long time. Pardon me for asking, how does that have anything to do with recent warming - or anything else in recent history other than the seasons themselves? -
Camburn at 13:45 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
DB: NOAA, at least to me, is a credible source. The University of Florida is also credible. As far as a disinformation site, you have lost me.Moderator Response: [DB] In your comment in question, your second link was from http://c3headlines.typepad.com, which serves up disinformation. Example: "NOAA February Data Confirms U.S. Has Been Cooling The Last 15 Years: -1.9°F/Century Trend" = Hokum. I applaud using credible sources such as NOAA or Florida State University, but to put those fine institutions on a par with the like of c3headlines is to de-value the contribution of your entire comment. You can do better (and you have indeed done so in other comments). -
Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
johnd - I agree that local and regional weather and longer term climate will be vital to the impact and response of climate change on everyone. But you have not, as we were discussing, made the case that the 30 year averaging of variability to identify statistically significant trends is invalid. -
Camburn at 12:26 PM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
I am curious. I posted a link from NOAA concerning the winter of 2009-2010. Has anyone actually read it? It disputes Mr. Zwiers assertion that the recent winters are tied to AGW in the US. As far as hurricanes/cyclones. Rain is a normal part of them is it not? Is not the destruction caused by the energy of the hurricane? Which is bore out by wind speeds etc? The destruction is caused by the winds. Florida State University has a site that shows intensity and numbers.Moderator Response: [DB] That comment also contained material taken from a denialist disinformation site, so I personally stopped reading at that point. Material taken from original, peer-reviewed sources is best for building a credible, science-based argument here. -
Marcus at 12:20 PM on 12 March 2011Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
John D, if you *honestly* think that I'm going to risk exposing myself to abuse & intimidation by your "skeptic" friends, by revealing more about myself than I already have, then you're sadly mistaken-especially as you still remain unwilling to do so yourself.. The only reason I said as much as I did was to disabuse Camburn of any illusions that I don't have working knowledge of current day agricultural practices (heck, my Mum & Step-Dad own a farm, for Pete's sake). Still, the fact that you've chosen to cast aspersions on my credentials reveals how weak the arguments you & Camburn have presented *really* are. Though its not my actual field of expertise, I have taken the time to read up on the literature regarding enhanced CO2 levels on crop plants, & they simply do *not* paint the incredibly rosy picture that you & Camburn try to do-even when the studies ignore all the other negative impacts that will be associated with CO2 induced climate change. I also have to love how you place so much *faith* in untested hypotheses, when you think they might support your AGW skepticism, yet you still show an unwillingness to accept more than 100 years of accepted science regarding the impacts of increased CO2 in our atmosphere. I guess your "skepticism" is very selective. -
adelady at 11:50 AM on 12 March 2011Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
This item at Tamino's gives a very nice analogy for the "it's not very much" line of thinking. At least I like it. -
NewYorkJ at 11:42 AM on 12 March 2011Examining Hansen's prediction about the West Side Highway
Chrisd3, I haven't lived in NYC since the 1980's, so I'm not sure what changes have been made. Persistent flooding would seem to depend on a number of factors, including elevation and regional sea level rise (the global rise isn't distributed evenly). HR: "But what's more important speculation by an influential climate scientist who's helping to shape the IPCCs position or a blogger?" Watts is not shaping the IPCC position or the science. I think the blogger would argue that he's helping to shape public opinion, perhaps more so than the IPCC. He and others certainly want to be seen as credible sources, taken as seriously as the scientists. It would be nice if the public (and politicians for that matter) could distinguish between objective science and his brand. -
Camburn at 11:11 AM on 12 March 2011The name is Bond...Gerard Bond.
This paper shows a correlation between Bond Events and precip in Peru/Bolivia http://eas.unl.edu/~sfritz/pubs/BakerJQS05.pdfModerator Response: [DB] (Converted URL to Link) Personally I think it's great that you're referencing primary source literature. But your description of it lacks an evaluation of whether you think it supports the topic of this post or serves to undermine it. Perhaps if you could add some further characterization of the study you reference it would serve to better enhance the discussion here. Thanks! -
johnd at 10:23 AM on 12 March 2011Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
KR at 09:26 AM, collectively, regional weather is our both our means of being able to quantify global climate, and being able understand how it manifests itself at any point in time, past, present or future. Ocean heat content is central to global climate and thus anything that plays into that by altering the conditions that drive the heat flux at the surface is most relevant. Systems such as the IOD have both a "front" and a "back" and given the physical world is neither uniform nor symmetrical across it's surfaces, the frequency of the oscillations and the time spent in each phase does not necessarily mean that everything balances out once a complete cycle has occurred. As you noted the IOD is very relevant to Australia, and it is only since being identified that it has become realised that some of what had previously been attributed to ENSO was in fact due to the IOD. I believe that some studies have, or are being carried out, taking the IOD into account may mean the influence of ENSO is not as great as presently thought. Even without such studies we now know that to be the case for Australia, especially where droughts are concerned, and perhaps floods as well. Time will tell. -
Albatross at 10:21 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
Rob @40, He is probably referring to the range in mean global UAH lower tropospheric temperature as shown on Christy's site, which by my reckoning has an amplitude of 3 K, not 4 K. I would like to see what RSS shows though. BUT, again, given the attempts of TIS to obfuscate, I can only conclude that he agrees with Lindzen's erroneous number, because he certainly has not said nothing to have us believe otherwise-- in fact he seems to suggest a lower number (unless lindzen was referring to Fahrenheit and not Kelvin). So instead, he ties to detract from Lindzen being out by an order of magnitude. The physics and science simply do not support Lindzen's number. Anyone, who argues differently must be arguing from a belief system or ideology, and not science, or worse yet, distorting/mangling the science the fit their belief system. And I look forward to TIS submitting a paper to science to refute Lacis et al......... These are desperate days for "skeptics" and contrarians and is showing in the quality of their posts, and their desperate attempts to detract from the failings of their "heros". In recent months Lindzen, Spencer, Michaels, Carter and Christy have been (for the umpteenth time) exposed for what they are-- disinformers and obfuscators intent on confusing the public, who are seemingly driven by ideology and not science. The really scary thing is that, given their training, they must know better-- it is hard to believe that they are innumerate (to borrow a term used by Gareth Renowden in a similar situation) given their training. As you can tell my patience with these disingenuous abusers of science and people who talk though their hats has long run out. I hope readers following SkepticalScience not the vacuity of physics and science in arguments used by "skeptics". I suggest TIS submits a paper to science trying to refute Lacis et al. (2010). -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:19 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
I actually found the data TIS is referring to here at NOAA. But TIS is still missing the very basic point of what global warming actually is. -
dana1981 at 10:13 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
wingding - I agree, the site certainly isn't set up to provide accurate answers to scientific questions. However, it's important to make people aware of that fact. As long as they're going to attempt to answer scientific questions, people should be aware that the quality of those answers is poor. -
wingding at 09:59 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
You are wasting your time trying to correct it. My guess is answers.com was created to provide answers to trite general knowledge questions like "which band sung XYZ" etc. Not scientific questions. Q. Co2 produce by human? A. Humans make a bunch of Co2, no seriously: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Co2_produce_by_human -
RickG at 09:56 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
# 37 ICS, Could you please post a source for that 4C range? I would like to see the arithmetic. -
Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
johnd - I spent some time looking into the IOD; it's not something I was familiar with. You're quite right, the IOD has been mostly positive for years now, and may be exiting the "quasi-periodic oscillation" category for a more persistent pattern. But quite frankly, the IOD is regional weather, not global climate. Wind patterns move warm water to the west, with resulting colder upwelling near Sumatra. The overall effect is a redistribution of warmth, but not a global trend - an increase or decrease in energy retained. The shift to a more persistent pattern appears to be an example of regional climate change, like the northern movement of the equatorial rain belt, which will probably begin to raise coffee prices in coming years as Central American (among others) precipitation shifts and the southern US dries out. The IOD appears to be more persistent due to climate driven wind changes. The IOD is a huge influence on Australian weather - but does it affect long term global temperature averages??? Perhaps it will result in a 'step change' if it stops varying, although I can only see that if the long term shift changes absorption of solar energy, rather than redistribution. But if it stops varying due to long term wind shifts, it's certainly will affect temperature variance even less than it does now. The 30 year running average may have a change like the one around 1945 or 1975. But the time required to extract a statistically significant trend from varying data will actually reduce if the IOD ceases to vary. -
WheelsOC at 09:25 AM on 12 March 2011The name is Bond...Gerard Bond.
Thank you, I've been looking for more information about the "Roman Warming." Usually data presented is only from the northern hemisphere, but it's used to allegedly put the current global climate "in perspective." -
Rob Honeycutt at 09:24 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
TIS... I have to say, I'm having a hard time finding this signal of 4C global average temperature swings in the data. -
sidd at 09:22 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
The second graf in the article and the one posted by Mr. Colose remind me of the PV curves with the van der Waals correction and the Maxwell construction. -
Phil at 09:20 AM on 12 March 2011The Earth's Sixth Mass Extinction May Be Underway
Dana's main article says: "The authors' second conclusion is that if we continue on our present course, we could be headed towards a mass extinction event within a timeframe of just a few centuries. Therefore, it's very urgent that we steer away from our mass extinction course immediately." (My italics) LandyJim #46 complains saying that "extinctions of the overwhelming majority of species in the last 400 years is nothing to do with climate change" (my italics) I find that it's always worth reading the article before commenting on it. -
Rob Honeycutt at 09:15 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
TIS... What you seem to be missing is this is not about absolute temperatures. In a given day the temperature rises and falls vastly more than the most dire global warming predictions. This issue is that we are nudging the distribution curve out one direction producing warmer average temperatures and greater extremes. -
The Inconvenient Skeptic at 08:33 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
To those that continue to argue solar forcing.... Between January and July of each year the average temperature of the Earth increases ~4C. Between July and January the average temperature of the Earth drops ~4C. The maximum energy from the sun is opposite of that cycle. The Earth receives maximum energy in January and minimum in July. The factor that causes that behavior is the differing geography of the two hemispheres. If they had equal geography then Jan-Feb would be warmest and Jul-Aug the coolest. The geography of the Earth causes more of a temperature change each year than even the IPCC's most dire predictions. Where the energy of the sun strikes causes more "feedback" than any of the GHG's. The location of the long term insolation changes matter most, not the magnitude. That is why the "arithmetic" is not believed. It does not explain the annual temperature cycle. -
johnd at 08:19 AM on 12 March 2011Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
KR at 07:41 AM, you are looking at it more from a weather perspective by ignoring how ocean heat content becomes a function of these longer term cycles. With regards to the IOD, you've also overlooked the most recent history where it remained in a positive or neutral phase from 1992 until it's present negative phase, which was the longest period of it's kind since records began in the late 1800's. However, from an Australian perspective, and by extension all other regions on the ocean's rim, it's the fact that it oscillates differently to adjoining systems. This current situation of a -ve IOD coinciding with a La-Nina last occurred in 1975 bring a similar extended wet period to Australia and no doubt having a similar effect on the ocean heat flux. Other years where they have also coincided could include 1942, 1933, 1917, 1916, 1909 and 1906, however that depends on how different agencies classify the occurrence. Apart from the most recent coincidence, 1975 is the only other year that is common to all. -
scaddenp at 08:15 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
" If you compare those figures I believe you're going to see that an enhanced greenhouse effect is going to overwhelm any orbitally forced cooling." This has been pointed out to TIS before but so far as I can see he doesnt believe arithmetic. -
dana1981 at 07:56 AM on 12 March 2011The Earth's Sixth Mass Extinction May Be Underway
LandyJim #46 - you're free to think whatever you like. I merely reported on a study in which the scientific experts disagree with your beliefs on the subject. Agnostic #47 - good summary. As you say, there are clear signs (the rapidly accelerating extinction rate) that we're on a very dangerous path.
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From Peru at 07:55 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
During the exit from a snowball event, one essentially goes from a completelely ice covered planet to an iceless planet as the CO2 content of the atmosphere reach 10%. The temperature in the snowball aftermath reaches between 40ºC and 50ºC. Oxygen isotopes of cherts 3.5–3.2 Gyr (Archean Eon) indicate temperatures of 70 +/- 15 ºC, indicating that temperatures then may have been even higher in earlier times. My question is: in the Ancient Earth, during periods when temperatures where between 40ºC and 70ºC, what would the atmosphere be like? In particular, given the enormous atmospheric water vapor content due to the high temperature, would the planet be completely covered by clouds, like today is the planet Venus? (I mean clouds made of water droplets of course, unlike the Venusian clouds that are made of H2SO4 droplets) And what net radiative effect can have a 100% cloud cover, that is, what dominates, the reflection of shortwave radiation (the cooling effect of clouds) or the cloud greenhouse effect on longwave radiation (the warming effect of clouds)? -
Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
johnd - You're quite correct, our understanding of things like the ENSO have improved tremendously over the last century. That means we can now account for them in normalizing temperature records, as Tamino has done. And that therefore there is justification for using shorter time periods to detect trends with such variations removed. Not justification for longer periods. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, which you had not clarified) cycles about four times every thirty years, similar in period to the ENSO. And hence the 30 year averaging should encompass the IOD as well. The initial 30 year average came out of looking at long term temperature records, variation and noise, and numerically looking at how long a period was required to detect a statistically significant trend against that variation. The statistics haven't changed - 30 years is still the right time period, although if we back the ENSO and other detectable variances out we have a chance to identify trends with shorter periods. Unless you have identified a 15-40 year or greater cycle that isn't being accounted for? You might then want to look at Tamino's recent post on identifying unknown cycles and relationships. I'm still not hearing a justification for a longer time period for climate estimation - but rather a shorter one if properly calculated. -
johnd at 07:32 AM on 12 March 2011Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
JMurphy at 01:40 AM, given your anxiety about this matter and subsequent urging that "perhaps we should leave it to the particular experts in that particular field", let me assure you that it is unlikely that such changes will be implemented in this thread, at least not today, and certainly not without your consent. Perhaps the moderators can suggest a more suitable thread where it can be implemented. -
johnd at 07:18 AM on 12 March 2011Interactive animation of the climate change impact on agriculture
KR at 01:49 AM, it was with such as the ENSO in mind that has long had me considering this question. Our understanding of weather and climate has undoubtedly expanded somewhat since this "standard" was adopted, tracking our ability to measure all the parameters. Identifying ENSO, let alone understanding it was still yet to come, so ENSO could not have been in their minds at the time of the adoption. The various indexes that track the phases of the atmosphere/ocean systems are all recent advances, the IOD only about a decade ago. They all have become most relevant to our understanding, yet we still are yet to understand how they interact fully. Identifying the IOD was of particular relevance to Australia allowing some order to be bought to the cycles of drought and flooding rains. Therefore confining ourselves to averaging over a couple of ENSO events is akin to averaging the weather over a couple of day night cycles as opposed to averaging it over a couple of annual cycles. My thoughts are that whatever period is used should as a minimum cover a couple of complete cycles of those oscillations that have so far been identified and thus able to be measured, because ultimately it is not about simply measuring temperature fluctuations, but about accurately tracking heat in and out of the oceans which is where the length and frequency of such cycles becomes most relevant. Some paranoia seems to exist about making any changes, as it always has done so. In this case it seems the fear is that by extending such periods the graphs will have to extend from paper edge to paper edge which could lead to one falling off the edge of the paper whilst trying to explore the extremities. sigh-- some things never change. -
dana1981 at 07:13 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
Good point perseus. The original model of Answers.com was useful. Once they started relying heavily on WikiAnswers though, that seems to be when it started going downhill. And yes, the site's treatment of all opinions as equally valid on a scientific issue is simply inexcusable. I doubt they would approve of Creationists answering evolution questions with their opinions. -
RickG at 07:10 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
RSVP: The job of a teacher is to teach people how to think, not "having things explained". No, it involves both. -
RSVP at 07:00 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
michael sweet 26 The job of a teacher is to teach people how to think, not "having things explained".Moderator Response: [DB] There are those that regrettably force us to do the latter because they refuse to do the former. -
perseus at 06:50 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
Chemware Be aware that Answers.com (the non-user edited part of the same site) actually uses direct copies of Wikipedia articles as well as other sources. This was their original business model. Contributors on wiki.answers are advised to research their answer using this tool. However, without rigorous supervision by a scientifically literate supervisory board it quickly degenerates into a political opinion board A serious problem with the wiki.answers part of the site is their policy on AGW: "… On the site, we consider Global Warming to be as debatable a topic as Politics or Religion. This is why we allow for multiple viewpoints and opinions…." we have attempted to change this without success -
Rob Honeycutt at 06:31 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
TIS @ 31... But you can quite easily look at the radiative forcing associated with insolation and see how that relates to the radiative forcing of GHG's. If you compare those figures I believe you're going to see that an enhanced greenhouse effect is going to overwhelm any orbitally forced cooling. -
scaddenp at 06:31 AM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
Camburn - are you listening to anything? Firstly, the concern about climate is what the future will bring. If climate modelling predicted particularly bad things happening to US now that arent, then you would have a point. The concern is that climate models are doing well at predicting climate and those future consequences look ugly. Secondly, your also seem to be saying that no matter if US emissions are causing a problem for rest of planet, so long as they dont trouble the US, then no reason to take action. You expect us to respect this view? You arent convinced there is a problem, and your posting history suggests you search out reasons for believing that. Okay, but assuming that you are prepared to have your decision-making informed by data, what is the data that cause you to change your mind in the future? What indicators would look at 20 years down the track where you would think, "whoops, got it wrong". On the other foot, for me climate science is putting out a lot of predictions. If they turn out wrong beyond the levels of uncertainty, then I would accept (with great pleasure as an oil and coal man) that science was wrong. -
The Inconvenient Skeptic at 06:22 AM on 12 March 2011What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
#27 Chem, That has been discussed here and here. #29 Ark, One frustrating aspect of the debate to me is that I would prefer that CO2 cause warming because the alternative is cooling. Despite arguments that the Holocene is comparable to the Hoxnian Interglacial, the insolation curves are very different. I am not convinced (no need to link to the papers, I have read them) that CO2 will cause warming, but I am convinced that the orbital cycle will cause cooling. So preparing for warming when cooling is more probable is a very bad response. -
dana1981 at 05:53 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
Yes, there's the psychological aspect that people will tend to find ways to believe what they want to believe. However, for open-minded people who simply aren't sure which "side" to believe, the appeal to the authority of the scientific consensus is a valid approach. -
dana1981 at 05:51 AM on 12 March 2011Climate Emergency: Time to Slam on the Brakes
FYI, this aritcle has been re-posted on TreeHugger. -
Philippe Chantreau at 05:36 AM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
I've seen many deniers accusing Tamino of cherry picking 1975 as the start of the modern global warming period. The accusation has no merit. That year is the pivotal point where the behavior of the temperature time series changes in a totally unambiguous fashion, thus the choice is perfectly legitimate. It is justified by statistical analysis, not other considerations. Tamino has explained this a number of times and even showed the mathematical details. -
Chris G at 05:28 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
Dana, I agree; though Dunning-Kruger effects come into play. I guess that in those situations, the appeal to authority (consensus) is still about the only option. Of course that leads directly to the "There is no consensus." "Yes, there is." that we see play out so many times. Or, "Science by consensus isn't science." "The consensus was reached after the science, not before." Which leads to conspiracy theories, etc., which often degrade to something like, "So, your position is that Al Gore created the concept of global warming in order to increase taxes and create a world government more than 50 years before he was born? Hmmm." -
dana1981 at 05:11 AM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
protestant #38 a) Tamino didn't subtract the AMO because there's no reason to. Christy didn't subtract it either. Like ENSO, it's just another oscillation which has no impact on the long-term global temperature trend. You provided no evidence to support your "cherrypicking" accusation, so I'm just going to ignore it. b) As Rob said in #39, if you want us to consider specific papers, you'll have to reference specific papers rather than just throwing out random "skeptic" names. c) Yes, I wrote an article on Dessler (2010) which is linked in this post. d) I didn't dismiss anything. I responded to Christy's testimony, which specifically talked about cloud feedbacks. Moreover, Spencer's 'internal forcing' hypothesis is based on nothing more than correlations. e) Christy was the one who brought up the consensus. If you don't like it, take it up with him. -
muoncounter at 05:08 AM on 12 March 2011Monckton Myth #9: Monckton vs Monckton on heat waves
Here's a link to the original GISS statement about the summer 2010 heat wave from the extreme weather thread. Add in the fact that there were severe European heat waves in 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010; it's hard to shrug that off as 'natural variation.' -
dana1981 at 05:00 AM on 12 March 2011Wrong Answers dot com
Chris G - that's certainly a challenge, and why the climate disinformation campaign has been so successful. It can be very difficult to figure out who to believe when being told two opposite things. At the Congressional hearing, it would be difficult to know if Christy was right or if Sommerville was right, without first having some basic understanding of climate science. That's where the consensus comes in. Sure, unless you actually learn about the science first, it's an appeal to authority. But we appeal to authority all the time. There are "skeptics" like Christy telling us that global warming is nothing to worry about, but reality is that they're in the vast minority. For people who are unwilling or unable to learn basic climate science, I think it's hard to justify rejecting the consensus expert conclusion on the subject. If 9 out of 10 doctors say you need surgery, you'd probably be smart to get the surgery. -
RickG at 04:59 AM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
Protestant, None of what you posted. appears to have anything to do with this topic. However, I will comment one of your notes. e) Science isn't about the so called "consensus". It is about testing hypothesis. Consensus is related to politics, not science. The consensus in science is what the majority of published peer review literature supports. It has nothing to do with politics. -
Albatross at 04:58 AM on 12 March 2011Christy's Unconvincing Congressional Testimony
Protestant, So to detract from inconvenient truths and defend Christy's misconduct you start making a long list of accusations against others. I can only assume that means that you agree with Christy misleading congress and lying by omission. I'll let Dana address your red herrings and strawmen. AGW is supported by consilience, which goes way beyond consensus.
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