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Comments 9901 to 9950:
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Eclectic at 17:43 PM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Yes, thank you, Daveburton, I noticed the 295ppm figure — and also the 500ppm figure that the model indicates cannot be exceeded under Dr Spencer's stated conditions of artificiality.
Curiouser and curiouser, as Lewis Carroll would say. As you know, he ("Carroll") was a mathematician — but even the delightful nonsenses his fertile mind created, had not extended into acronyms like GIGO. He would have had fun with that sort of thing !
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daveburton at 15:09 PM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Thanks, Mr. Moderator!
I'm sorry, I guess trying to post code in-line was just a bad idea. The tiny program is in this archive, as calc_est_co2_removal_rates_v02.pl along with everything else needed to run it under Windows, and some other stuff:
http://sealevel.info/CO2_Residence_Times/allfiles2.zip
Eclectic, Dr. Spencer's simple model is doubtless a good approximation of reality as long as CO2 levels are well above 300 ppmv, which corresponds to atmospheric CO2 levels and removal rates that are known with good accuracy. For CO2 levels below 315 ppmv (dates older than 1958) the numbers get fuzzier.
Did you notice the relatively high "natural equilibrium" level he found (295 ppmv)? That might reflect the anthropogenic additions to larger carbon reservoirs, like ocean and soil, and it might be evidence of the widely assumed "long, fat tail." -
Riduna at 15:05 PM on 23 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Nigelj
I also missed the ‘source’ because it isn’t red.
I tend to be wary of comparing annual investment in RE in dollar terms when their cost is falling. A better measurement is to compare commissioned capacity of RE installed each year.
While accepting that public utilities are best administered by the public sector I don’t agree that this is a sine qua non for continuing RE investment.
We need to remember that the alternative to RE is on-going use of fossil fuels producing GHG emissions, an increasingly severe climate, and rising cost of damage caused by it. That cost can not be ignored and, at least for the public sector, must make RE the only option.
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Eclectic at 13:48 PM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Daveburton @27 ,
someone of note once said: things should be made as simple as possible . . . but not too simple.
Dr Spencer has made an interesting exercise in curve-fitting, somewhat resembling the multi-planet atmospheric pressure/temperature curve-fitting that "demonstrated" the non-existence of the GreenHouse Effect. ( To his credit, Spencer has always been scathing about those who claim the non-existence of the GHE. )
For the "simple model", Dr Spencer has also made some peculiar assumptions about the "natural equilibrium" ; about terrestrial biosphere CO2 draw-down ; and about the oceanic contribution ( CO2 solubility, buffering, and overturning currents timescales ).
The Spencer "simple model" is so simple, that it is simply unphysical.
I would like to think Dr Spencer would consider it a waste of your time for you to rest an important argument on such over-simplicity.
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daveburton at 10:31 AM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Trying again, with explicit line-breaks added...
Mr. Moderator, I meant no offense, but I'm not aware of any comment policy that I violated, and I do not understand why you deleted so much of my comment.
MA Rodger, here's where the "about fifty year" practical residence/adjustment time comes from. Well, actually, a number of scientists have independently calculated approximately the same figure, but this is how I did it.
Start with the observation that the rate at which natural systems (oceans & terrestrial biosphere, mainly) remove CO2 from the air is governed chiefly by the CO2 level in the air. When the CO2 level is higher, so is the removal rate. When the CO2 level is lower, so is the removal rate.
Some people think the removal rate is governed by the emission rate, and that it's necessarily "about half" (leaving an "airborne fraction" which is also about half). They are mistaken. There is no physical mechanism by which any of the major contributors to the removal rate could be governed by the emission rate. It is the CO2 level, not the CO2 emission rate, which primarily governs the removal rate.
For the oceans, the removal mechanism is dissolution into surface water per Henry's Law, and then then transport to the ocean depths by currents and calcifying coccolithophores, and complex chemistry which is beyond my ken.
For the terrestrial biosphere it is "greening."
AR5 estimates that the terrestrial biosphere removes about (2.5/9.2) = 27% [p. 6-3] or 29% [Fig 6.1] of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the atmosphere, each year, and that the oceans remove another 26% [Fig 6.1]. (There are wide error bars on those numbers, but the ≈55% sum has narrower error bars than the two addends have.)
Of course, other things also affect the CO2 removal rate, as is obvious, for example, from the detectable effect of very large volcanic erruptions on measured CO2 levels. But the most important factor governing the CO2 removal rate from the atmosphere is clearly the CO2 level in the atmosphere.
Those numbers are known, with fair precision. For the last sixty years we have very good records of both atmospheric CO2 levels and production/use rates of fossil fuels & cement (from which can quantify the main sources of anthropogenic CO2 emissions).
From those data we can calculate how much CO2 was removed from the atmosphere by natural sinks (oceans, biosphere, etc.), each year.
Since we also know the atmospheric CO2 level each year, we can easily build a spreadsheet, and fit a curve, showing the approximate net rate of CO2 removal as a function of the CO2 level.
Dr. Roy Spencer did that, and found it is very closely approximated by a very simple function, which you can read about here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/a-simple-model-of-the-atmospheric-co2-budget/
Using Dr. Spencer's "simple model," I wrote a tiny Perl program to simulate the effect on atmospheric CO2 level of a sudden cutoff of CO2 emissions. Counting 280 ppmv as "pre-industrial," 63% of the anthropogenic CO2 is gone from the atmosphere in 54 years, and 2/3 is gone in 60 years:#!/usr/bin/perl
# estimate CO2 removal rate in ppmv/yr as a function of CO2 level in ppmv,
# per Dr. Roy Spencer's "simple model"
# ref: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/a-simple-model-
# of-the-atmospheric-co2-budget/
sub removal_rate {
local($co2level) = shift;
local($removalrate) = 0;
local($co2elevation) = $co2level - 295.1;
local($ratio) = 47.73;
if ($co2level <= 295.1) {
$removalrate = 0;
} else {
$removalrate = $co2elevation * 0.0233;
}
return $removalrate;
}
# SIMULATE DECLINE IN CO2 LEVEL IF EMISSIONS SUDDENLY WENT TO ZERO
$co2level = 410;
$year = 2019;
print "Simulated CO2 level decline, with level starting at
$co2level ppmv in $year, and zero emissions:\n";
while ($co2level > 300) {
printf("$year %5.1f\n", $co2level);
$year += 1;
$removalrate = &removal_rate( $co2level );
$co2level -= $removalrate;
}Here's the result of a simulation run, with CO2 starting at 410 ppmv in 2019, and zero emissions:
2019 410.0
2020 407.3
2021 404.7
2022 402.2
2023 399.7
2024 397.2
2025 394.8
2026 392.5
2027 390.3
2028 388.0
2029 385.9
2030 383.8
2031 381.7
2032 379.7
2033 377.7
2034 375.8
2035 373.9
2036 372.1
2037 370.3
2038 368.5
2039 366.8
2040 365.1
2041 363.5
2042 361.9
2043 360.4
2044 358.8
2045 357.3
2046 355.9
2047 354.5
2048 353.1
2049 351.7
2050 350.4
2051 349.1
2052 347.9
2053 346.6
2054 345.4
2055 344.3
2056 343.1
2057 342.0
2058 340.9
2059 339.8
2060 338.8
2061 337.8
2062 336.8
2063 335.8
2064 334.9
2065 333.9
2066 333.0
2067 332.2
2068 331.3
2069 330.4
2070 329.6
2071 328.8
2072 328.0
2073 327.3 <== residence/adjustment time (e-folding time) = 54 years (using 280 ppmv as base)
2074 326.5
2075 325.8
2076 325.1
2077 324.4
2078 323.7
2079 323.0 <== two-thirds of the anthropogenic CO2 is gone in 60 years (using 280 ppmv as base)Of course we know that this simple model would not accurately model the "long, fat tail," with CO2 levels under 300 ppmv. But the point I made previously is that, for practical purposes, that doesn't matter, because we all know that CO2 levels that low are harmless.
Moderator Response:[BW] I tried to correct your comment by adding some more line breaks - may make the code itself not work, though due to syntax errors now.
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daveburton at 10:24 AM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Yikes! Obviously my <pre> block with nicely formatted code got turned into one enormous line, and it ruined the formatting for the whole page!
I'm very sorry!
Please just delete that, Mr. Moderator.
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nigelj at 08:56 AM on 23 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
I meant the word source wasn't highlighted in red.
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nigelj at 08:34 AM on 23 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Riduna @8
Yes 'we' sure looks like that trade union organisation. I didn't click on the word source in Johns article because it wasnt highlighted in a different colour, but I gave it a go now it goes to that website. If only people would just be clearer on who they represent.
I'm not adverse in principle to trade unions or his basic concerns about needing more democratic input into decision making etc.
The major concern in his article appears to be that falling costs of renewables generate low profits once subsidies are removed. He goes on to say "By now, the message should be clear: The insistence on private-sector-led investment in renewables, which we are told needs to be “unlocked” through various incentives—subsidies, feed-in-tariffs, guaranteed returns through PPAs, etc.—has proven to be a disastrous failure. This is the reason why renewables are “underperforming.” This is what must change if deployment is to reach the levels needed to meet the Paris targets."
I think its a fair analysis, but unfortunately he doesn't appear to say what this should change to in any detail. The website talks about trade unions and democratic control of things but doesnt spell out how that would work and why it might lead to increases in adoption of renewable energy. A workers cooperative might prefer to stay with fossil fuels! The only thing he does is hint at direct government investment in electricity generation.
Subsidies have been good in that they have kick started renewable energy, however clearly there is now a problem with profitability when subsidies are removed. Perhaps its as simple as keeping a subsidy mechanism in place, but there are obviously other options. For example a carbon tax would punish continued use of fossil fuels, so reducing their profitability and thus countering the falling costs of renewables so increasing their profitability. But Im not an economist and dont have the knowledge to work that out in detail.
Another option is the government just take over the financing of renewable energy, (as the article suggests) but that is a "big call" with obvious political ramnifications and implications for governments ability to fund such a thing, although some mechanisms do exist. This appears to be what the GND proposes.
And I repeat subsidies are not a market mechanism, so although generators are free to decide what to invest in we are left with a semi market approach. Carbon taxes are also a semi market approach. The only purist market approach is to just keep fingers crossed and hope markets solve the problem left to themselves (they wont).
But investment in renewables does seem to be stalling so something has to change and the only options appear to be 1) keep subsidies 2) a carbon tax or cap and trade approach and 3) direct government investment in renewable energy.
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Riduna at 07:21 AM on 23 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
nigelj @ 8
Could "we" be Trade Unions for Energy Democracy?
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swampfoxh at 06:51 AM on 23 August 2019'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
Moderator: I have investigated, to the best of my ability, as to why I have been "kicked off" this site. I think I have not received your posts, via email, for about 4 months. If there is anything you can do on your end to put me back in the "loop", I would appreciate it. I don't have the proper computer skills to know how to handle it and I am too old to have children who can. Thank You.
Moderator Response:[DB] You are not blocked here, as your comment appearing here attests. Your last comment was made here on July 6th. Your account is still set to receive emails.
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MA Rodger at 05:09 AM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
daveburton @24,
You seem to think that the (410-280=) 130ppm anthropogenic CO2 increase in the atmosphere would drop by 63% over a period of "about 50 years" (according to daveburton @22) and presumably conclude that today's CO2 levels would leave us with (280+0.37x130=) 330ppm after that time period. Even if your talk of e-folding time were applicable to the draw-down period of CO2 from the atmosphere, I don't think this use of the 63% is correct.
The anthropogenic emissions total 650Gt(C), enough to raise atmospheric levels from 280ppm to 585ppm if it were emitted all at once. The 410ppm in today's atmosphere has thus already lost 43% of its added CO2 and if emissions stopped today we could expect something like a further 37% reduction over 1,000 years, leaving perhaps a level of 340ppm in AD3000. And there it will stop for tens of thousands of years if natural processes are allowed to run their course.
While I have no inkling what you are considering with this multiplier of 20x for (20x50years=) 1,000 years residency time, I do wonder how it should be re-calculated for a residency time of tens of thousands of years now we will be leaving CO2 above your threshold 340ppm level for such long periods.
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daveburton at 02:21 AM on 23 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Paul Pukite, it appears that you've missed my point. Don't you know what "from a practical perspective" means?
I thought this was clear, but I guess not: "Since I don't think anyone believes that a CO2 level of 320 or 340 ppmv could have any deleterious effects (compared to 275 or 280), the long tail (representing CO2 levels below 330 ppmv) should be disregarded."
Let me try again to explain it.
The folks who claim very long anthropogenic CO2 residence times (or adjustment times, if you prefer) do so to magnify the supposed harmful effects of elevated CO2 levels. It is a key parameter when calculating the so-called "social cost of carbon," used to set things like carbon tax levels and offset prices.
It is not a minor consideration. A 1000-year residence time is used to justify 20x the tax rate of a 50-year residence time.
Are you with me so far?
But everyone, even the most fervent alarmists, agree that there are no harmful effects from CO2 levels "elevated" to less than, say, 340 ppmv. So, since that "long, fat tail" represents CO2 levels below 330 ppmv, it is obviously a mistake to use it to magnify the supposed harms of CO2 emissions.
In the CO2 decay curve, the first e-folding time reduces the anthropogenic CO2 increment by about 63%. I think everyone understands that there are no plausible harms from CO2 levels that low. All that matters is the first e-folding time, which is about fifty years.Moderator Response:[DB] From the AR5:
“The removal of human-emitted CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes will take a few hundred thousand years (high confidence). Depending on the RCP scenario considered, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. This very long time required by sinks to remove anthropogenic CO2 makes climate change caused by elevated CO2 irreversible on human time scale. {Box 6.1}”
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter06_FINAL.pdfPlease note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
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Inflammatory rhetoric and sloganeering snipped. -
nigelj at 19:23 PM on 22 August 2019The North Atlantic ocean current, which warms northern Europe, may be slowing
Related article and a related research study by J Hanson.
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Eclectic at 13:56 PM on 22 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
My apologies, Moderator. My post "crossed" with your request.
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Eclectic at 13:53 PM on 22 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
BillyJoe @34 ,
please clarify the point that you really wish to make.
If you wish to suggest a form of words that would be "foolproof" , and to be used in any future consensus survey by John Cook (or others) . . . then you are welcome to do so. The new wording won't alter the past, though.
But I think you will have an uphill battle to find anything foolproof — especially since the anti-science group will be actively trying to be foolish in their interpretations.
I am not aiming to provide any "excuses" for past surveys — I am simply pointing out the futility of hoping to achieve legalistically-ironclad definitions with absolute perfection. Basically, in this matter of assessing consensus, we must rely on the common sense of the reader in understanding what is being discussed.
As for "misinterpretations" by the science-denialists — well, You Can't Fix Stupid, nor can you fix malice & deceit in the minds of denialists.
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BillyJoe at 11:10 AM on 22 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Eclectic@29
Putting aside, for a moment, the fact that climate deniers will definitely use it as a "gotcha" to fuel climate denialism...
I do not understand why you prefer to make multiple excuses rather than simply agree that it is a good idea to state facts accurately.
It's a win-win situation to get it right: providing accurate information and avoiding giving climate deniers another talking point.
Moderator Response:[JH] This discussion has run its course. Let's shut it down.
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Riduna at 08:36 AM on 22 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
johntreat
Are we talking at cross purposes here? The focus of your comment is on what attracts RE investment while the focus of my essay is on Australian coal production, arguing that its level is affected by market forces, particularly demand from consumers, asserting that it is vulnerable to reduced demand brought about by climate change imperatives and adoption of clean energy technology.
The essay does not attempt to look at the global warming effects of lower or higher coal use or what induces investment in RE projects. You are right to assume that the Australian RE Pipeline ($39 billion) is largely attracted by availability of one-off public financial assistance for approved investments.
Australian coal production also receives subsidies of $1-2 billion per annum.The Australian government has announced its intention of terminating financial assistance to RE investors, arguing that this sector is now well established and no longer requires assistance. It will be interesting to see if this results in a predicted investment collapse – or ongoing investment in fewer but larger, multi GW projects.
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SteezyMac23 at 08:36 AM on 22 August 2019There is no consensus
Robert S. "Even in periods of end interglacial times, when temps would be expected to slowly cooling down, as you mentioned?"
Is it a "period of end interglacial time"? Well it depends on what you think causes the glacial periods--if the mechanism isn't there, then it isn't going to happen. If you believe the Milankovitch cycles are what initiates the glacial/interglacial, then we are still a ways from another glacial period. So it is not inconceivable that the planet would experience a warming at this time.
Then he wrote:
"Even on that kind of time scale, a blink of an eye really?OK, but can you substantiate with references?"
If you want to take issue with the idea that the planet has had warming similar to the recent warming on both the time scale and in magnitude, be my guest. It would be a losing battle. As for references, all one has to do is a little searching--this interglacial, the last glacial, the last interglacial, etc. It won't be too hard to find warming of this magnitude in this time scale."
Glacial and interglacials are caused by orbital patterns. That has been proven. Interglacials last around 15,000 years give or take some.
Moderator Response:[PS] I should just point out that you are responding to a comment from 2008. There are 17 pages of comments here.
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scaddenp at 07:56 AM on 22 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
The "carbon tax" regime most favoured envisages redistribution of the tax gathered to public on per capita basis. So you would pay more petrol yes, but get money back from government to cover that. It sounds like money merry-go-round but if you use less carbon than average then you make money at expense of those who use more carbon. A strong incentive to look for ways to use less. Macron's levy on petrol gave nothing back so the yellow vests had some justification.
At the industry level, even a carbon tax with no feedback to consumers can be effective. If two products are equivalent in everything except price, then you buy the cheapest? If you have limited budget you buy the cheapest? Well surely then if you can avoid paying a carbon tax, then you can ship your product for less than your competitor who is just absorbing the tax. Solar panels on the factory roof for starters.
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therealjason at 03:58 AM on 22 August 2019Sea level rise due to floating ice?
Why aren't we talking about the amount of fresh water rain falling into the oceans on a yearly basis? Wouldn't this reduce salinity and raise ocean levels also?
Moderator Response:[DB] In the same fashion that breathing in is offset by breathing out, rainfall is offset by evaporation over climate-related timescales.
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nigelj at 14:12 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_pricing_in_Australia#Effect_of_the_carbon_price
A carbon pricing scheme in Australia, commonly dubbed by its critics as a "carbon tax", was introduced by the Gillard Labor Government in 2011 as the Clean Energy Act 2011 which came into effect on 1 July 2012. As a result of being in place for such a short time, and because the then Opposition leader Tony Abbott indicated he intended to repeal "the carbon tax", regulated organisations responded in a rather tepid and informal manner..."
Despite this it did have some effect as I noted: "Because the Australian carbon tax does not apply to all fossil fuels usage, it only had an effect on some of the emitters of greenhouse gases. Among those emitters to which it applied, emissions were significantly lower after introduction of the tax. According to the Investor Group on Climate Change, emissions from companies subject to the tax went down 7% with the introduction of the tax, and the tax was "the major contributor" to this reduction."
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nigelj at 14:02 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Johntreat @5 &6
Anyone can be a critic. Nothing is perfect in this life. Please state your better alternative on how to transition to renewable electricity generation if you want to have credibility.
And who is "we"?
You say "there is no evidence whatsoever that a carbon tax would be effective in disincentivizing wasteful production; on the contrary, companies simply absorb the tax as a business cost and pass it on to consumers (as they do with the costs of advertising, or the costs of hiring lawyers to fight consumer-protection groups).'
What a huge strawman. Carbon taxes are not primarily intended to reduce wasteful production; there are other ways of doing that. Carbon taxes are intended to put a price on fossil fuel use and encourage alternatives. In fact the strongest transition to renewable energy in Australia happened in the short period it had a carbon tax.
There is no problem companies pushing costs onto consumers provided there is a carbon tax and dividend structure. However its very unlikely that producers would push all costs onto consumers, because that risks losing market share.
A quick look on wikipedia at carbon taxes show they are used in plenty of countries and have delivered some positive results even with quite weak settings, and the research on this is listed.
You are making baseless assertions. But maybe you have another alternative and can convince me. What is it?
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nigelj at 13:24 PM on 21 August 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33, 2019
“Keep calm”? A critique of Wolfgang Behringer’s “A CulturalHistory of Climate” Rüdiger Haude"
The research paper was paywalled, but I read Behringers bio on wikipedia and stumbled upon a link to a free version here.
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johntreat at 13:16 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
^"... *they* were supposed to mimic..." Apologies.
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johntreat at 13:15 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
nigelj:
The point is that when government subsidies — which were supposed to shepherd nascent industries to market viability — were removed, the failure of the market forces there were supposed to mimic became obvious. And although it is a favored policy shibboleth, there is no evidence whatsoever that a carbon tax would be effective in disincentivizing wasteful production; on the contrary, companies simply absorb the tax as a business cost and pass it on to consumers (as they do with the costs of advertising, or the costs of hiring lawyers to fight consumer-protection groups). That's why a carbon tax is a deeply regressive kind of tax. The "yellow vests" in France made sure we all know that.
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johntreat at 13:02 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Riduna:
Climate change is not an "Australian" issue; it is a global issue. Given the phenomenon of "off-shored" emissions, it should be clear that the performance of market-focused climate policy has to be assessed on the basis of global trends. This is a basic flaw in the original piece, IMHO.
But even if we grant the national frame of reference, I think you've missed the significance of the BNEF graph of clean energy investment in Europe: When government incentives for RE are scaled back, investment collapses. It isn't clear from the original article how much of the $39b is underwritten by such incentives, but my understanding is that it must be considerable. So that investment isn't due to "market forces," but to government attempts at minimizing the impact of market forces on a fledgling industry.
On the issue of cost, I think you've missed the point of the analysis we've done, which is simply that low-cost doesn't mean profitability. Profit-seeking investors — and there is no other kind of private-sector investor — invest on the basis of profitability, not on the basis of cheapness. Investment in renewable generation has proven to be stubbornly poor at delivering returns to investors, especially as governments have turned toward more competitive subsidy mechanisms. That's why the BNEF graph of clean energe investment in Europe collapses. To be clear: RE generation at the right end of the graph was still *cheaper* than at the left end, but it wasn't *profitable*, because the government subsidies that were masking the failure of market forces had been removed.
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nigelj at 12:03 PM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Johntreat
"As governments have turned away from “come one, come all” feed-in-tariffs towards more competitive bidding regimes where the “winner takes all”, there are pressures to win the bid in order to secure a 20-year subsidy in the form of a “power purchase agreement” or PPA. The bidding process has driven down contract prices even faster than the real costs of building the projects have fallen (due to “learning by doing,” economies of scale, technological improvements, etc.). Investors then see diminishing profit margins and lose interest."
This is not so much market forces failing, as a badly designed market bidding mechanism combined with subsidies ( a non market mechanism). Carbon tax would have been a better market mechanism, and would not require subsidies.
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Riduna at 11:37 AM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
johntreat
claims that market forces have “demonstrably failed” to drive forward the energy transition. This is not the case in Australia where market forces have attracted S39 billion in a renewable energy pipeline and possibly a further $15 billion in proposed major projects.
Market forces Are not the constraint on transitioning to a decarbonised economy. Rather development and commercialisation of technology, particularly fort energy storage, are.
The point made in this essay is that Australian coal production is dependent on and vulnerable to change in demand for coal and those changes are likely because of contracting demand from its largest customers.
It is true that Chinese government policy is to proliferate use of coal-fired electricity generation – a fact noted in my essay China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions. If successful, which is debatable, China would be committing many countries to increased coal consumption for the next 40-50 years.
Surely a question to be asked is will those countries proceed with China's gift of new coal fired electricity generation which:
(a) produces energy which is far more expensive than that generated from renewables
(b) puts them at a competitive disadvantage with countries actively transitioning to a decarbonised economy, and
(c) increased their carbon emissions and contribution to carbon emissions which increased global warming and cost of damage it causes. -
nigelj at 09:24 AM on 21 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
MAR @31
"you do react to my assertion that there is scientifically a "looney fringe" that happily exaggerates AGW and which matches that denialist 3%...Such exaggeration is often wielded by denialists as reason to ignore the science."
Shrewd observation on this very real looney fringe that exaggerates AGW. A good example is arctic-news.blogspot.com/ and they might be well meaning, but they are clueless and indeed just hand the denialists ammunition.
"I will continue to object to use of the word "existential" without qualification. And the extinction of species and habitats is surely not such a qualification."
The term existential threat in unqualified form has bothered me as well, as being a dubious claim easily ridiculed by the denialists. I've said so at RC. However extinction of some species would be a reasonable qualification wouldn't it? It's a very real possibility, almost a given.
However I'm having second thoughts on the use of the term extinction in the sense that the Extinction Rebellion group does not seem to have alienated people with it's choice of words, or been rubbished over it. Perhaps people largely appreciate the implied intent that climate change has a very strong possibility of making many plant and animal species extinct, and at least some poorer human communities in the tropics largely extinct if they don't immigate somewhere less hostile, which might not be an option open to them. So perhaps the term extinction and existential threat is not so bad.
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Doug_C at 05:09 AM on 21 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
MA Rodger @31
There's clearly an unscientific bias being applied by climate change deniers. Despite the vast amount of objective evidence going back centuries that the Earth is in fact much warmer than it should be if just basic thermodynics were at work and it is almost certainly the presense of persistent carbon dioxide that is mostly responsible for this warming effect, their entire position is based on denying this.
Deniers simply do not weight their position based on the varying confidence in the data. They are 100% certain that by vastly increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere there will be no major warming event. And in fact whenever possible they default to a global cooling scenario to frighten people into believing in the threat of rapidly advancing ice sheets from the next ice age.
As for the catastrophic impacts of global warming and climate change, when exactly do we declare it an emergency. The entire biosphere is now in a state of risk, we are now in the position where it isn't individual species that are at threat but the entire biological systems of the planet.
Most life on Earth is in the oceans and they are in rapid transition to often a much more hostile state to the life there. About 25% of marine life spends part or all its life on coral reefs. As we saw with the recent coral bleaching over a massive area in the Great Barrier reef system this transition to what is effect a dead state can happen very rapidly. It took two years for half of one of the most extensive and diverse ecosystems on Earth to die.
We are not going to see a rapidly recovery of any coral reef system on Earth, almost all are going to be lost in the coming years as an incredible amount of heat is added to the Earth - mostly the oceans - constantly. Skeptical Science has a meter to display just that. The loss of marine coral reef systems globally can be considered a significant extinction event on it own. That will include most of the 1 to 9 million species that depend on coral reefs.
But it is just one such factor. As I said we also have to look at the rapid and virtually uncontrolled removal of many marine species at clearly unsustainable rates. How will the oceans even function with such rapid and destructive changes. The source of most free molecular oxygen on Earth.
Terrestrially we are looking at about 40% of insect species in rapid decline and the overall biomass of insects decreasing at about 2.3% a year. The basis of much of the food chain and biological communities on land is in rapid decline.
About 40% of avian species are also in decline.
I don't believe in unsupported alarmism, I do think that if the evidence is as stark as it seems then we are looking at a rapidly approaching point where the overall integrity of ecosystems on a global scale will start to fail.
At which point there will simply be nothing we can do except watch a very rapid and almost certain cascade effect into a world that will not support much of the life now on Earth. And certainly not a species as large as ours with such high metabolic requirements.
The oxygen question alone is stark. Not only are the oceans in a decline to a very unstable situation, but we are rapidly removing the secondary centers of oxygen production the rain forests. Under the current government in Brazil deforestation has doubled in pace. The rain forests of the SE Pacific region are being logged and in many cases converted to palm oil and other plantations on a vast scale.
All these factors stress the entire biosphere and global climate change ties it all together into a formula for catastrophic failure that the data indicates has already begun.
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Cestsibon at 03:58 AM on 21 August 2019The CO2/Temperature correlation over the 20th Century
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
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johntreat at 01:30 AM on 21 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
This piece is clearly well-intended but seems strikingly out of touch with what is actually happening with energy consumption and investment under the currently dominant climate policy paradigm, which insists that governments rely on "market forces" to drive forward the energy transition, and which has demonstrably failed. Far from being some kind of inevitable "force of nature" as the author seems to suppose, the very existence of "market forces" depends entirely on the maintenance and effective enforcement of a variety of legal institutions of and by the state (property rights, financial institutions, trade mechanisms, etc.).
At the same time, it seems to be increasingly evident even to advocates of mainstream climate policy that it is failing to deliver the energy transition. Colleagues and I have written about this extensively, including in a series of major Working Papers and occasional shorter pieces. Here's an excerpt from one of the latter:
We are told repeatedly that the falling costs of renewable generation capacity makes renewables “more competitive” with fossil fuels, and that each new record low auction result for solar or wind is a reason to celebrate. From the standpoint of private investment and profit making, however, falling auction prices are hardly a good thing. As governments have turned away from “come one, come all” feed-in-tariffs towards more competitive bidding regimes where the “winner takes all”, there are pressures to win the bid in order to secure a 20-year subsidy in the form of a “power purchase agreement” or PPA. The bidding process has driven down contract prices even faster than the real costs of building the projects have fallen (due to “learning by doing,” economies of scale, technological improvements, etc.). Investors then see diminishing profit margins and lose interest. (“Too bad about the planet but, hey, there are many other things to invest in.”) As one analyst writing for Risk Magazine puts it:
At the end of the day investors aren’t just going to put their money on a good story, their main objective is to make money from these investments. A look at the renewable energy sector fundamentals analysis shows that the total rating of all listed renewable energy companies fundamentals is just 3.9 out of 10, a rating that signals the renewable energy sector has very poor fundamentals.
Under the current policy approach, private project developers have avoided risk and expanded their market share through PPAs with government entities, or with utilities that are mandated to reach renewable energy targets. But the “guaranteed returns” that such PPAs ensure for investors often translate into higher electricity costs for users, which can quickly translate into “political risk” when electricity users start complaining about rising bills. Governments then phase out—often abruptly—the policies that made investment in renewables attractive in the first place. This is what happened in Europe where, once subsidies for renewables were scaled back, investment collapsed:
Because of falling auction prices, many people still assume that the market share of renewables will reach a “tipping point” once they become the “least cost option.” But because there is simply not enough profit in “low carbon solutions” like renewable power generation—at least, not without subsidies—renewables are unlikely to attract the levels of capital needed to achieve the Paris targets.
On coal in particular, here is an excerpt from another recent piece I authored, looking at the latest data on coal consumption and emissions in the context of the need for dramatically greater electricity generation in order to have any hope of wider decarbonization:
While demand for all forms of energy is growing, what is happening with the power sector (electricity) is especially important. Moving away from fossil fuels will involve widespread electrification, dramatically increasing the need to generate electricity. Global demand for electricity grew even faster in 2018 than demand for energy overall, at 4%. And 42% of energy-related emissions last year came from the power sector.
Despite the closure of many coal plants around the world, coal remains the dominant fuel for generating electricity globally. On current trends, coal consumption is projected to remain at roughly current levels for many years. Although coal consumption declined for a few years, it actually rose in 2017, and again last year.
Coal consumption is growing dramatically in several large countries, mainly in Southeast Asia. China recently announced plans for at least 300 new coal-fired power plants – most of them outside China. Coal demand for power rose 2.6% last year, and CO2 emissions rose 2.5%, with coal accounting for 80% of the increase.
Government commitments under Paris have to be understood in the context of the fact that those commitments were widely recognized at the time as completely inadequate to achieve their stated purpose—but also, perhaps even more alarmingly, the fact that almost no governments are on track to meet even those very inadequate targets. To extrapolate on the basis of those commitments while ignoring those two facts seems careless at best. And calling emergent technologies "disruptive," although fashionable, does little to strengthen the argument. Lots of things are "disruptive": wildfires, epidemics, wars. We need a credible plan with real democratic accountability, not more market-driven chaos and "disruption."
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Paul Pukite at 00:58 AM on 21 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
DaveBurton said:
"Some folks claim much longer residence times for anthropogenic CO2, but, from a practical perspective, they're wrong"
The residence time should actually be called an adjustment time and because of the fat-tail physics of diffusion, the value of that time is actually indeterminate and can be considered to be hundreds or thousands of years.
This is basic condensed matter physics and you can read more about this topic in our book Mathematical Geoenergy and specifically in Chapter 9 Section 6.
The issue with people like Dave Burton is that they have probably only encountered 1st-order models in their technical experience, and that's why they bring up concepts like "the first e-folding time" which is a dead giveaway to their lack of broader scientific knowledge.
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daveburton at 00:14 AM on 21 August 2019Residence Time and Prof Essenhigh
Re: "Atmospheric content: 750Gt"
Glenton, that was back around 1981. It's about 907 Gt, now:
(411 ppmv CO2 + 1.85 ppmv CH4) × 2.196 GtC/ppmv = 906.6 GtC.
funglestrumpet, the practical (first 2/3 or 63%) anthropogenic CO2 residence time is about fifty years.Some folks claim much longer residence times for anthropogenic CO2, but, from a practical perspective, they're wrong. Those calculations are based on a modeled very "long tail." Since I don't think anyone believes that a CO2 level of 320 or 340 ppmv could have any deleterious effects (compared to 275 or 280), the long tail (representing CO2 levels below 330 ppmv) should be disregarded. All that matters is the first e-folding time.
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MA Rodger at 20:37 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Doug_C @21/22 & @25.
I think we are mainly talking past each other here. Perhaps to complete the trade of AGW 'credentials', I have been bashing on about the need to reduce our GHG emissions for only 38% of my life-to-date. I very quickly learnt that such a message is not something that easily yields meaningful results.We agree that the scientific uncertainty within the subject is not the uncertainty wielded by denialists, although they will happily add it to their own accumulated pile of uncertainties. We agree there is no doubt that the scientific consensus dictates the need to quickly reduce GHG emissions to zero. And we seem to agree that the 3% non-consensus is today entirely non-scientific.
You do react to my assertion that there is scientifically a "looney fringe" that happily exaggerates AGW and which matches that denialist 3%. It is not as prominent as the 3% and it isn't so detatched from the science as the 3%. (And there are those non-scientific voices that exaggerate AGW even further.) Such exaggeration is often wielded by denialists as reason to ignore the science.
[Strangely there has been warning from denier Richard Lindzen that the most basic non-scientific denialist argument is damaging to his denialism (He says you couldn't hire folk to do a better job - see from 12:00 in this 2012 talk in the Palace of Westminster.) but such mud doesn't seem to stick to denialists as it does to AGW.]One point I would take serious issue with.
You consider "even a 5% chance we are facing a global crisis of this magnitude it should result in immediate action.[my bold]" Yet I fully understand why, within the political sphere, that would not happen. The big problem is not the '5%' (which of course is actually a lot higher, not significantly different to 100%). The big problems are threefold - (1) the timing of the "global crisis" in the future way beyond any political planning horizons (with the exception of SLR on building requirements). (2) the far-reaching actions required by that "immediate action." (3) and what can be called 'institutional denialism' - your Trans Mountain pipeline provides a good example of the lunacy that can ensue. Unless the message sweeps the institution, the counter message of 'continue-on-as-before' will have great strength and will tend to regain its prior position. So bye-bye message.I will continue to object to use of the word "existential" without qualification. And the extinction of species and habitats is surely not such a qualification. (Note that denialists will counter by saying that the present sixth great extinction event isn't all down to AGW. And there are more powerful arguments that they fail to harness.)
Finally, I'm reluctant to drag Quantum Mechanics into this interchange as it is certainly not of primary consideration. Yes QM does provide the "understanding" of the physics but the impact of the physics is measureable without it, perhaps this epitomised by black body radiation being the evidence that led to identifying QM and its probabalistic physics.
@25 - "How do you reason with people who have strayed so far from rational thought?" Reason may have flown out of their window but do we give them a free pass to spread their nonsense? If you can make their arguments look ridiculous it will perhaps chip away at their denialism and it will surely dissuade onlookers from believing it.
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nigelj at 17:33 PM on 20 August 2019Market Forces and Coal
Labour are now advised not to use market force mechanisms to combat climate change, which is very strange given their policies during their election loss didn't appear to use market force mechanisms. There was no carbon tax, and the climate policies were mild, and focused more on things like vehicle emissions standards, so this is a regulatory approach.
www.jacobinmag.com/2019/05/australia-labor-party-bill-shorten-third-way
In fact it appears Australia's Labor Party lost the election through a scaremongering campaign against their general economic policies, and clumsy, vague climate policies to do with the fate of a coal mine, and not focusing o the concerns of blue collar workers in language that they could understand.
However a carbon tax is probably a hopeless proposition in Australia because of the history of previous proposals, so that mainly leaves a cap and trade option. It all seems silly to me because its possible to combine market and non market mechanisms anyway.
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nigelj at 16:55 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Eclectic @24, sorry to be a bit doomy and gloomy, but I doubt there is a brilliant chess move to neutralise climate denialists of the Christopher Moncton variety. Believe me I've tried to think of one many times, and I have scrutinised your and others comments looking for one!
Obviously facts do convince some people, or we would all still think the world is flat, but the Moncton's of the world are not interested in facts. They are Doubting Thomases who are strongly driven by politics, or religion, or economics as Doug C points out, and I think you could add plain crankiness in some cases, and I think they are sometimes immensely proud people who are unable to admit they are wrong, ever.
The only thing that might convince the hard core denialists is a rapid escalation in sea level rise or something like that, and even then maybe not in some cases. It's sobering to remember there's still a flat earth society, people think the moon landings were faked, and about 50% of people don't believe in Evolution in some countries.
Theres an old saying "you cannot argue with an idiot" and some intelligent people are determined to act like idiots. If fact they can be the most stubborn.
I've seen climate scientists debate with denialists to no avail.
This is not to say we shouldnt try, but mostly when I respond to hardened denialists, or if I crticise some sceptical research paper, I word things mainly to connect with open minded people who might be reading, and who are just a little sceptical of climate change, and I choose my tone, tactics and explanations accordingly.
Of course some denialism is just cherrypicking and other deliberate logical fallacies in a vertitable climate blizzard, and sometimes it's best to point these out and not get bogged down in the science too much.
I sincerely believe its a battle to convince the many people in the middle of the bell curve, who think at least vaguely rationally, and there is some real hope there. Acceptance of AGW theory has increased a bit in America over the last decade, but Moncton will probably be last in line to change his views.
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Eclectic at 16:43 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
BillJoe @27 , it is 6 years too late to expunge the "gotcha". And it wouldn't make any difference anyway — the denialists will always continue to recycle anything at all which they think (in their febrile minds) scores a "gotcha" point. All you can do, yourself, is to develop some good ripostes — for the benefit of the audience, of course.
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Eclectic at 16:34 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Doug_C @25 ,
Quite so. No reasoning with denialists. At the present state of climate scientific knowledge, one can only be a "denialist/skeptic/contrarian" by being intellectually insane.
Fair enough, to point out to Dr Tim Ball (self-alleged "Professor of Climatology") how wrong he is . . . but in doing so, you are "playing to the audience", but you waste your time playing to him himself.
# Despite years of complete disappointment, I still read some of WUWT (and ClimateEtc ) from time to time, in the ongoing hope of discovering some important & valid argument against AGW. Nothing at all of that sort discovered, yet. (You may know ClimateEtc as a kind of upmarket WUWT , but with much less frothing-at-the-mouth in the comments columns.)
Occasionally in WUWT articles, there are some minor points of interest (points I had been unaware of). Most of the articles are tiresome in the puerility of their propaganda slant. The comments columns, I skim at speed (looking for the several "names" where I can expect sensible/insightful comments e.g. Nick Stokes, Steve Mosher, and a very few others — all of whom get excoriated by the hoi polloi of usual commenters). There is some entertainment value in viewing the bedlam antics of the usual commenters — of whom, half or more are in full denial of the GHE and the physics of CO2's radiative properties. And I confess to a feeling of Schadenfreude in viewing the insanity of these people's delusional Motivated Reasoning . . . but I find a spoonful goes a long way !
To return to Dr Tim Ball — if I see his name as author of an article, then I skip reading any of it. Along with a few other names there, such authorship indicates that reading the article will always be an utter waste of time. Utter. Similarly to reading the computations & ratiocinations of Monckton (or any inventor of a Perpetual Motion Machine) -— you know that somewhere in the verbiage is a serious error . . . and so you needn't bother reading any of it.
Monckton's various "re-calculations" of the 97% consensus, are in the same boat.
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BillyJoe at 15:43 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Thanks again for the replies.
I am well aware that the climate deniers wil use every trick in the book, honest or dishonest, to discredit climate science, including all those studies about the consensus, including the most recent that puts it at over 99%.
There is just no point in giving them a "gotcha".
Even if you think "mainly", "primarily", and "largely" are similar, it is not what was in the study which said "primarily" . And "extremely" in the following quote from the above article is clearly incorrect:
“Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.”
Again, al I am saying is don't give them a "gotcha" (and I have seen this "gotcha" used many times on internet forums).
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RBFOLLETT at 14:15 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
I am one of your Deniers. I am a retired geologist of over 40 years and will remind you that sedimentary geology is in fact the very essence of climate change so I am not completely ignorant of the subject. Quite simply, you have had almost 40 years and all the money in the world to prove your CO2 greenhouse gas theory and quite frankly ALL you have is a 97% consensus of scientists that are saying “Because We Say So”. There is not a single quantitative study in the last 40 years that proves the theory and quantitatively establishes CO2 concentrations to global warming and I can say without a shadow of a doubt that your group are not even working on one. WHY? Your 97% consensus might be good enough for you guys but most adults need at least some empirical proof to follo, and if there really was some proof, there would be no need for this comment or for your site. This article and the above comments show an almost unbelievable dismay that deniers can even exist and virtually anything they have to say is garbage in the wake of our overwhelming “consensus“. Well plugging your ears and yelling lalalalalala is not going to make the Deniers go away, nor is this continued Because We Say So. Seriously, there are thousands of scientists that simply do not believe your hypotheses or your theory and until you grant them some respect you will get NONE in return.
Moderator Response:[PS] Sloganeering without an ioto of evidence offered in support. Everything so far you have offered (not much) as counter-evidence has been a chimera and demonstration of your lack of knowledge and your readiness to believe what your suits your wishes instead of critical thought. Enough. (and the irony of statements are amazing).
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Doug_C at 14:08 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Eclectic @24
I think some people are clearly beyond reach. There was an article entitled something like "Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas not carbon dioxide, the scam revealed" by Tim Ball on a site not to be named.
I pointed out the basic contradiction in his primary theme, that water vapour is in fact present in the atmosphere in the form of a vapour that can be in multiple phases at the same time. While carbon dioxide is present there as a gas that is in one state only. Meaning if all the persistent CO2 was removed from the atmosphere, within decades almost all of the water vapour would have precipiated out of the cooler atmosphere.
His only response was some ad hominem, he didn't even bothering to address the science.
For some people this has stopped being a scientific issue. At best it is an economic or political issue, at worst it is religious. For these it is no longer an impersonal academic subject, it is a very personal one to the poiint where many deniers treat objective science as a personal attack.
How do you reason with people who have strayed so far from rational thought?
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Eclectic at 13:38 PM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Nigelj @23 , perhaps you should say something more. New ideas?
I don't think there's a point in doing any hand-wringing about the imperfections of the past (and hindsight will always allow us to be wiser). But conceivably there might be some future way of making a brilliant chess-move to stymie the nit-pickers/nay-sayers in the deniosphere. Myself, I can't think what that move could be. As Philippe C. says @16 , the denialists will simply do what they do . . . with or without them having any ammunition to use.
For 2013, John Cook & associates were I'm sure very conscious of the likelihood of strong opposition to the Consensus study's conclusions . . . but they may not have anticipated the intense fury it stirred up. (Even more fury than a certain Emperor might have felt as his lack of clothes was pointed out.)
As you know, John Cook made the brilliant pre-emptive move of having an author-self-rated section in the study, to confirm the study's validity. (A confirmation which the denialists strenuously ignore, to this day.)
But all that being so, we still find Monckton & cronies going to vast lengths of absurdity in order to re-define 97% as e.g. 34% or 0.3% . In the face of such blatant and persistent insanity, I suspect it is futile to try to use reasonable evidence to convince the denialists. And the various consensus studies are aready done — and they are all essentially in agreement with each other — and there's probably no point now in re-confirming 97% or 98% or 99% .
What remains, is to "get the message out" more effectively into the ears of the general public.
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nigelj at 11:22 AM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Billy Joe @17, I agree. The Cook study is fine but seems a little inconsistent with some statements in the article. I'm not going to say more, but as you say dont give the denialists ammunition on a plate.
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Doug_C at 06:28 AM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
I've been following this critical issue for more than half my life. In the mid 1980s the science was sound from what I could see and it has just gained confidence in the subsequent decades while the real world catastrophic impacts are seen all around us.
I find it inconceivable we are still discussing consensus or uncertainty on an existential issue. If there was even a 5% chance we are facing a global crisis of this magnitude it should result in immediate action and an end to meaningless speculation. But the chances even with conservative studies places the chances at over 95%.
There is no elite climate research institute that is about to release a groundbreaking study that this was all some mammoth misunderstanding and we'll all be fine now. Instead we are now in a position of trying to save as much of the biosphere as we can before the impacts of our actions become so catastrophic that there will be no coherent response possible in the chaos of climate change emergency after emergency.
The systemic cognitive dissonance over this issue is staggering. In Canada we are going into a fall election and one of the central issue still remains "is climate change real", there is a discussion of it this afternoon on our national broadcaster CBC.
Earlier this year the current government declared a "climate crisis" in Parliament one day and the next approved for the third time the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline expansion that would eventually be piping to terminal almost 1 million barrels of dilbit from the Athabaska tar sands. One of the most carbon intensive sources of energy on the planet. Our government has already spent $4.5 billion buying the current pipeline and will have to put in more than that to triple the line.
The fossil fuel sector here indicates no sense of emergency at all, the new Premier of Alberta which drives energy policy in Canada has effectively declared war on the science of fossil fuels driven climate change.
Jason Kenney touts $30M 'war room' but provides few details
There is no scientifically meaningful uncertainty left over whether climate change is occuring or the most likely forcing based on not just decades but centuries of science. Just politically motivated efforts to deny it.
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Models are unreliable
Dr. Christy has a long history of presenting irrelevant, cherry-picked (tiny parts of the Sierras to argue that snowfall isn't decreasing, temps in Alabama which is relatively unchanged relative to other regions of the US), over-averaged (averaging rainfall over the US, ignoring that some regions are changing drier, others changing wetter), unnormalized (temp. extreme records without normalizing for the length of the observations at each station), and/or deceptively graphed data (his temp. record graph, which uses a variety of choices that all exaggerate variability in models/observations while his own look better than they actually are). And yes, I can point to concrete examples of each of those, most directly in the various testimonies he's submitted to Congress.
It's well worth taking any climate statement from Christy with both a large grain of salt and a careful examination of the evidence presented.
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Doug_C at 01:50 AM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
MA Rodger @20
Quantum Mechanics are the most powerful tool we now have to understand physical interactions at the level relevant to this issue. Before we had QM there was very strong evidence that carbon dioxide is the most important persistent gas in the atmosphere for moderating the global climate. After the development of QM that became far stronger as we then had a detailed explaintion as to why that has allowed experimentation to a degree that simply wasn't possible before.
And the science on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and its intimate link to global climate got stronger as more data was produced.
My point about uncertainty is it is being misrepresented by the denialist campaign, not placed in its proper context. There will never be 100% certainty on global warming in scientific terms because there is always room left to expand and adapt scientific theory as new information is acquired.
The standards of scientific certainty are far higher than in any other discipline, in legal terms the confidence on the link between CO2 emissions and the serious impacts have been recognized at the highest level a long time ago.
Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency
The use of uncertainty in the case of global warming denial has nothing to do with advancing our understanding of the physical aspect of this phenomena, it is almost entirely political and economic in nature. It is simply not valid scientific skepticism.
I use the term existential in regards to global warming in the threat to the existence of human technological culture and society on a global level and the threat to a significant portion of the existing biosphere that is already in the process of accelerated extinction as climate conditions change far faster than many species can adapt to or migrant along with.
How can you refer to a process that is already well acknowledged to be underway as looney fringe?
We are already seeing massive dieoffs in the oceans in some of the most important ecosystems, if fully half the Great Barrier Reef system dies off in two years with a projection of almost all coral reefs systems and their diverse biotas gone by mid century, is that not a signficant loss of biodiversity from that one source.
Plus the research showing many insects populations in rapid decline, it's at an estimated 2.5% per year now. Many avian species are in rapid decline as well.
We now have an estimate of 1 million species at risk of extinction, that would have a profound impact on the overall biosphere.
Keep in mind that global warming and climate change is not taking place in isolation, it is the major human impact on the physical and natural systems on the Earth. But is taking place in the context of rapid deforestation of much of the worlds rain and temperate forests. In conjunction with a removal of a huge amount of species from the ocean for food with an equally massive polluting of the ocean environments.
Plus everything else we are doing to replace and remove those natural systems that make complex life possible on Earth in the quantity and diversity it currently has.
The truly loony fringe are those who think we can keep doing this for any longer without causing a systemic biological collapse.
Climate change denial is probably the most irrational organized behavior of our species yet.
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MA Rodger at 00:40 AM on 20 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
Doug_C @19,
I rather disagree with your comment or at least feel it sould be better explained.
There are certainly differing qualities of work that comprise denialism. There is a large protion of that denialist work that is incompatable with very basic science. (I'm not sure that your mention of Quantum Mechanics is entirely correct or helpful to your assessment.) There is also a large protion of that denialist work that is incompatable with scientific data and thus contrdicts the resulting inferences that can be established by that data. None of this is a great distance from your comment.
What I don't see is any remaining denialist work that is properly supported by evidence. The entirety of the 3% sitting beyond the 'consensus' is surely incompatable with the scientific data and it is actually not a proper constituent part of the science.
What I particularly feel is a step too far is suggesting that:-
"The few percents of research that show doubt are simply there as part of the uncertainty that is inherent in science, it may as well be stated in terms of a 100% consensus when it comes to evidence driving policy on global warming."
This statement is saying that there exists "uncertainty ... inherent in (the) science" which is exactly the denialist message. The likes of, say, Richard Lindzen or Judith Curry who constitute the 3% outside the 'consensus' will argue that there is enough uncertainty to infer that Climate Sensitivity is low and thus AGW will not be a problem.
Now, we can see that Lindzen with his cloud iris theorising or Curry with her large natural climate wobbles are part of the scientific process. But the doubt they may have sown scientifically is long dispelled. What we are left with is the likes of Lindzen & Curry continuing to spread their now-unscientific message to policymakers as though it was legitimate science. It is unscientific to represent these messages as scientific and their messages ar become part of the "finely tuned stream of disinformation" (although the "tuning" may not be a conscious process on their part).
And masquerading as legitimate science, their message can then be presented as though it had the same scientific standing as the IPCC Assessment Reports rather than a loony fringe opinion, indeed one balanced by those who grossly exaggerate AGW.
I note you use the word "existential" without making plain to what it applies - ie what it is that has its existence threatened by AGW. I would suggest that it is but that loony fringe (that is balanced by the denialist looney fringe) that describes AGW as an existential threat to the human race when AGW is surely only an existential threat to the world economy whose collapse would not be a pretty sight and likely reduce human populations to a fraction of today's total.
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Doug_C at 17:02 PM on 19 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
The science of global warming and climate change is fundamental, for it to be overturned would take a revolution in our understanding of how the Universe works at a primary level.
Even before quantum mechanics were discovered in the early part of last century we knew that the Earth was much warmer than it should be. Over 150 years ago it was shown which gas in the Earth's atmosphere is almost certainly the cause of that warming, carbon dioxide.
Since the development of quantum theory we now have a very good idea of why carbon dioxide is so effective at moderating a planet's global climate. Heat emitted by the Earth is tuned to be absorbed by CO2 but sunlight arriving at the Earth is not. Adding or subtracting CO2 from the Earth's atmosphere creates a radiative imbalance that will be corrected by an increase or decrease in the global average temperature.
The most radical hypotheses would have the Earth not warming as the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase.
The few percents of research that show doubt are simply there as part of the uncertainty that is inherent in science, it may as well be stated in terms of a 100% consensus when it comes to evidence driving policy on global warming.
It is very clear from the current situation that the only thing preventing evidence driving policy with global warming in what is likely an existential phenomena is an artificial factor being introduced to prevent that. That is a very intentionally and finely tuned stream of disinformation that still blocks the valid application of what really is now one of the most fully studied and understood phenomena in nature.
And we also have a very well documented record of where that disinformation comes from.
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Eclectic at 13:04 PM on 19 August 2019Millions of times later, 97 percent climate consensus still faces denial
BillyJoe @17 and prior ,
fair enough to point out the wisdom of keeping "ammunition" out of the hands of children & denialists.
But the track record of the climate-science denialists is that they *simply-do-not-care-a-damn* about truth, logic, evidence or honesty. (Philippe Chantreau @16 expresses it all exceedingly well.)
They will whip out a magnifying glass or a fine-tooth comb (please pick your metaphor of choice ! ) and look for a fly-speck on Mona Lisa's face . . . or look for a gnat on an elephant . . . and then they assert that this minuscule imperfection justifies denouncing the artistic worth of the Mona Lisa . . . or justifies ignoring the elephant in the room. They are a lost cause, altogether. Instead, any useful/interesting communication should be given for the benefit of the open-minded majority — who don't nit-pick, yet who are inundated with disinformation from "bad actors".
More explicitly on the 97% Consensus matter, as individuals we should step back and look at the "big picture". Which is a dichotomy situation — scientists are in two basic groups: (A) those who recognise that humans are the (approximately 100%) cause of the recent rapid global warming, or (B) those who do not recognize the evidence (i.e. who state that the global warming is non-existent or negligible ).
When you boil it all down, the question of largely , mainly , primarily etc, as "qualifiers" is irrelevant to the underlying situation. There are two groups of climate-knowledgeable scientists — those inside the consensus, and those outside. (Arguably, there is almost no-one with a foot in each camp, even though there are a few who claim to be ! )
BTW BillyJoe, if you look at the current-day consensus, it is well over 99% , according to the criterion of published science. The Consensus study by Cook et al 2013 is based on historic figures which are centered/averaged around the year 2005 approx. Quite a while ago !
Here in 2019 , there is no realistic debate about the climate consensus.
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