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nigelj at 07:58 AM on 8 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
Michael Sweet @4, a very interesting article thanks. Long but worth a scan.
The final chapter looks a lot like managed retreat to me. Costs of sea walls to protect communities against 1 metre of sea level rise per century will be prohibitive . Its been difficult enough managing storm surges and 300 mm sea level rise last century, so the future looks bleak. Of course it will vary place to place based on land area, population size and geography, and incomes, but this would be the general rule.
In NZ both central and local government at city scale are signalling they will warn homeowners about sea level rise risks in formal written documents, and it will be some form of managed retreat. This is all unresolved at this stage and one suspects people might demand sea walls as an instinctive response, once they wake up to what governmnet is proposing.
With managed retreat coastal property owners will see the value of their properties destroyed by having to abandon or move properties. Even building sea walls could have the same outcome of reduced property values. Its a question of how we deal with these people as it becomes a very visible problem and plunges people into poverty. There are two obvious options:
1) A local government and community initiative to financially compensate people, but this looks like it will be messy and impractical and well outside normal functions of local city scale government. Local government finances will be hard pressed just relocating roads etc without bailing out home owners.
2) It will all more likely fall back on central or state governments to help people with financial assistance, either by specifically targetted assistance for destrroyed properties, or through normal poverty alleviation and social welfare systems. Governments are normaly the provider of assistance of last resort when all else fails, and private sector insurance doesnt cover things. This will probbaly flow over into climate related issues. The increased pressure on governmnet spending will be a significant burden, right at the same time the population is aging and people who resent their taxes going towards poor people and people with problems will be very vocal.
Either way I suspect the can will probably be kicked down the road.
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cpske at 23:01 PM on 7 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
Re: Carbon Tax
I call your attention to the Citizens Climate Lobby (https://citizensclimatelobby.org/). This group recently held a 'lobby in' where they met with members of Congress to lobby for a carbon tax. They report Congress is becoming more receptive. (On a side note, they noted many in the GOP have gone to their think tanks on how to address Climate Change.)
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michael sweet at 22:05 PM on 7 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
I thought this was an interestig article about dealig with sea level rise in California. Some want more sea walls and others say we need to move back.
The artice is long. My summary: people realize they are hosed and must move. They do not want to give up in the face of slow distruction. What will the final chpater look like?
Moderator Response:[JH] Thank you for flagging the LA Times article — it's well worth reading. .
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MA Rodger at 21:16 PM on 7 July 2019The HadSST4 Sea Surface Temperature dataset
Wffrantz @1,
Without mention of the GloSAT project in the OP, your scenario is probably entirely off-topic. That aside, as I understand your "scenario", it isn't well thought through.
You set out a three-part climate with the deep ocean, the surface ocean (perhaps the mixed layer) and the atmosphere. Your U values you borrow from building insulation but the principle of an average factor of heat transfer for the interfaces within a three-part climate is fine. And whether the relative size of these factors fits with your assumptions would need a bit of work.
Where the real problems begin to appear is in the idea that a cold period of climate lasting almost half a millenia (the period ascribed to Little Ice Age in IPCC AR5 is 1450-1850) will still be cooling the climate at its conclusion and the onset of a warming. The idea of 'inertia' caused by the thermal capacity of the oceans is widely understood. This would slow the warming process. But it would not result in a situation where "ocean surface temperatures still drop."
To achieve such a "drop", the deep oceans would have to be out-of-equilibrium with the rest of the climate before the warming begins, itself not inconceivable abet the 400-year period of cold. But the "drop" requires the deep ocean to have somehow cooled below equilibrium of the preceding colder climate. Such a situation requires more than 'inertia' to achieve. So without some additional mechanism the 'scenario' you present cannot occur.
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BaerbelW at 17:00 PM on 7 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
nigelj - some of the proposals are at least in the direction of carbon fee and dividend. Perhaps not yet fully fleshed-out, but we (as in CCL Germany and and a European Citizens Initiative) are working towards that.
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ubrew12 at 16:37 PM on 7 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
The link to the Jeff Masters (wunderground: "Protective Wind Shear Barrier Against Hurricanes... Likely to Weaken...") article is broken. I found it here.
Moderator Response:[JH] Thank you for bringing this glitch to our attention. It has been fixed.
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nigelj at 07:43 AM on 7 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
"Insisting such a (carbon) tax would not unduly burden the poor, she said, "those who decide to live a more climate-friendly life could actually get money back."
Apparently this is to be through some sort of rewards scheme for the middle classes if they do the right thing, and the poor are given rebates to compensate them. This sounds nice in 'theory', but would create considerable bureaucratic complexity. The more complicated the proposal, the longer it will take to actually pass legislation, and time is a luxury we no longer have, given the lack of progress thus far, the speed at which climate change is progressing and the rate at which emissions are still rising.
Carbon fee and dividend would be a whole lot simpler. Given that wind and solar power is becoming cost competitive, you don't need to use a carbon tax to subsidise this any more, so it could all be given back as a dividend.
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Wffrantz at 01:41 AM on 7 July 2019The HadSST4 Sea Surface Temperature dataset
Quite interesting.
Unfortunate that the data doesn't go back to the end of the little ice age (1870). If we had that, then we could make assessments about the ocean heat sink. As an object is being cooled (ocean), heat transfer is from its surface between water-air and water-earth. But, unlike a solid object, oceans can mix deep water with surface water faster than heat transfer allows through vertical currents.
Scenario. The ocean cools during the little ice age (1300 - 1870), creating a huge heat sink after 570 years. Afterwards, surface air heats up. If surface air to water has a U value of say 5 to 30, then it will have litte effect on ocean surface temperature relative to water core to water surface because of the large difference between surface and core temperatures (the core being about 17 C cooler than the surface) and the much higher U value of heat transfer between water and water that is 30+ or so times greater. This would allow air surface temperatures to rise while ocean surface temperatures still drop. If we saw a lag in ocean temps after the little ice age, that might confirm the above scenario.
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michael sweet at 22:48 PM on 6 July 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Letchim,
The video you link would be deleted as a post at SkS because they make many unsupported claims that are transparently false. They dismiss the peer reviewed literature in favor of their unsupported personal opinions.
Schillenberger states at the end that nuclear waste is not a problem because no-one is killed by it. He does not mention the widespread problems of nuclear waste like the Hanford site in Washington state and dismisses the concern that the waste must be stored for longer than civilization has existed.
Hansen and Schillenberger suggest that new designs manufactured in factories will make nuclear "cheaper than coal". Big deal. They answer none of Abbotts questions. If their new designs work out as planned, a first for the nuclear industry, the manufactured units will not be available until 2040. That is too late to help.
Hansen damages his credibility with obviously false claims about nuclear.
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MA Rodger at 20:29 PM on 6 July 2019Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Penguin @370,
Adding more detail to michael sweet @372, you are asking about a 6,000 word article from 2018 entitled "CO2 is Not Driving Global Warming" written by...Well we do not learn the name of the "NARTE certified electromagnetic compliance engineer with more than 30 years practical experience" who is also "a systems engineer with plenty of experience in software design and development" with the "lifetime fascination with astronomy and cosmology." That is never a good sign - to flaunt your qualifications without naming yourself.
Whoever he is, it took him from 2006 (the Al Gore flim) until 2018 to decide to present this grand revelation to the world, even though he had "alarm bells ringing" in 2006. A second bad sign.
And he asserts that the theory underpinning AGW is no more that a CO2/GlobalTemperature correlation which is nonsense. A third bad sign.
The entirety is un-referenced which is fine when it is discussing widely understood subjects but when it begins to dip into fantasy, the lack of referencing becomes entirely unscientific and fatal for the presented thesis. Thus CO2 contributes roughly 16% to the greenhouse effect and would unassisted provide 25% of the greenhouse effect. I can say that un-referenced without much controversy. But within an un-referencing article, the assertion that CO2 is "responsible for more than 2.8% of greenhouse gas warming" is the beginning of the end for this grand thesis.
A few paragraphs later he asserts that CO2 absorbtion is IR is multiply-counted (a bit like double-counted but many more times) thus "cumulatively contributing to atmospheric warming." Such an idea is nonsensical. And nobody has spotted this alleged eggregious error? That would require some very good explanation. (The assertion "CO2 will not radiate more infrared energy than it absorbs if it’s at the same temperature as its surroundings" appears fundamental to the poor understanding of the author. It is precisely because it is the gas temperture that defines the CO2 IR emissions (and thus not the levels of absorbed-IR as he asserts) which creates the power of the CO2 greenhouse effect. Thus the comment "Increasing CO2 concentrations ... would mean that the greenhouse effect of CO2 will be concentrated at lower altitudes" is back-to-front.)The guts of his unsupported assertions run:-
"[CO2] is plainly saturated. Adding more CO2 to the system will not result in any less energy being radiated into space at those frequencies"
"The other misstatement in this [AGW] argument is that, “... it is the layers from which radiation does escape that determine the planet’s heat balance.” This is incorrect. The temperature of the upper layers of the atmosphere has no effect on the IR radiation if that atmosphere is transparent to the IR radiation. If the transmissivity of the atmosphere is at or near one, the IR radiation will simply pass through it with no interaction. If it were otherwise, then IR radiation simply wouldn’t propagate through the atmosphere at all. Since there is little to no water vapor at high altitudes where the atmospheric temperature are claimed to be a factor, the atmosphere is completely transparent to IR radiation across most of the spectrum." [My bold]
He is effectively saying 'Once the IR has a clear shot at space, the temperature of the atmosphere it is passing through doesn't matter.' The fool (and he is surely that) misinterprets "the layers from which" for "the layers through which". It is the temperature of gas from where the IR is shot into space that is crutial to the amount of IR energy cooling the planet. -
Letchim at 19:41 PM on 6 July 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
I don't have peer-reviewed articles but this video has some food for thought
James Hansen & Michael Shellenberger: Nuclear Power? Are Renewables Enough?
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michael sweet at 10:43 AM on 6 July 2019Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Penguin,
Your article claims that the concern about AGW started with Al Gore's movie An Inconvienent Truth in 2006. He apparently missed James Hansen's Senate testimony in 1989 that AGW was an incoming disaster. Lindon Johnson asked the National Academy of Science if AGW was a problem in 1965 and they replied that it would be a problem in 40 years or so. The first IPCC report was written in 1990!
The article claims that the CO2 absorbtion band is saturated. The probem here is the writer does not understand how the greenhouse effect works. At the surface the absorbtion band is saturated, everyone knows that. That does not matter. About 10 km up in the sky (30,000 feet) is the important area. At this height there is no water, only CO2. This is the escape altitude. Increased CO2 increases the escape altitude which warms the Earth. Read the OP for more information.
This dribble has been debunked many times. The author admits his ignorance when he claims no-one cared about AGW before 2006. The first IPCC report was written in 1990!!
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Penguin17935 at 07:54 AM on 6 July 2019Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Sorry - first post :-) didn't insert as link.. https://towerofreason.blogspot.com/2018/04/co2-is-not-driving-global-warming.html#comment-form
Thanks!
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Penguin17935 at 07:51 AM on 6 July 2019Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
What is the response to this article[ https://towerofreason.blogspot.com/2018/04/co2-is-not-driving-global-warming.html#comment-form ] reasoning that climate models do not correctly recognise the effects of increasing CO2 conentrations and that CO2 is not the main driver of climate changes?
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Wffrantz at 04:45 AM on 6 July 2019Models are unreliable
How reliable are IPCC 5th Assessment Predictions? Were they smarter than a 5th grader?
First the IPCC--Predictions are based on the assumption that CO2 is a primary driver of earth surface air temperatures. Because it has been extremely easy to to predict CO2 levels going forward from 2006, the baseline year for the IPCC 5th, the predictions would not have significantly changed if 12 years later, the actual CO2 levels were inserted (no assumptions) and the predictions recast. Given that, the average IPCC error from 2007 through 2018 was .14 degrees C.
5th Grader: Let's pick a panel of 5th grader that is smart enough to know that they have no clue as to what next years global earth temperature is going to be. So they decide to guess the prior years temperature. Given that, the average 5th Grader error from 2007 through 2018 was .07 degrees C--twice as accurate as the IPCC Model.
Here is the data.
IPCC 5th Model Errors Avg Abs Errors
Avg Err 0.072 0.145
Temperature Model Errors
Yr NASA IPCC No Idea Model
1970 (0.13)
…
2006 0.48 0.572007 0.44 0.58 0.04 0.14
2008 0.38 0.59 0.06 0.21
2009 0.47 0.62 0.08 0.15
2010 0.53 0.64 0.06 0.11
2011 0.45 0.65 0.08 0.20
2012 0.48 0.68 0.03 0.20
2013 0.50 0.74 0.02 0.23
2014 0.59 0.76 0.09 0.16
2015 0.71 0.75 0.12 0.05
2016 0.82 0.79 0.12 0.04
2017 0.72 0.80 0.11 0.09
2018 0.65 0.81 0.07 0.16
2019 0.83
Can it be argued that the 5th graders cheated by reassessing every year. Sure. But two facts do not change.
1) IPCC could have used actual CO2 data and not improved accuracy.
2) If physics is at all understood, any model based on sound physics should be able to beat the static forecast (e.g., a ball being thrown with elevation above ground being predicted).
Moderator Response:[DB] "Predictions are based on the assumption that CO2 is a primary driver of earth surface air temperatures"
You clearly didn't read the post. Models are built using physics and observations; predictions coming from them are an outgrowth of that. While imperfect, they are demonstrably reliable. The radiative physics of greenhouse gases like CO2 are well-researched, well-established and accepted by every international science body of note and by the petroleum extraction companies themselves.Simply making things, as you do, up is unhelpful. Please cite sources for claims, per the Comments Policy.
Inflammatory snipped.
Please limit image widths to 450.
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swampfoxh at 01:43 AM on 6 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
John Hartz. Well then, I take it all back. I did think it odd when you snipped my comment about AOC saying nothing new that hasn't been said by people with more gray hair. Since I don't have a party affiliation...the best that might be said is that I am a radical environmentalist, but I do find it odd that people fawn over this person who clearly offers northing new "under the sun". If that means to you I am trying to score political points, I would wonder whether you see that as points in favor of the Republicans or in the favor of the Democrats. Neither party appeals to me and I probably should add that I teach a class entitled "Origins of the American System of Government" at a colloge here in Central Virginia, and do so alongside the climate lecture titled: Climate Change: Impact of an Outlaw Species...one can quickly imagine whom is the outlaw species. Also, your management of this site has never been an issue for me, I was only growing tired of lengthly tomes of rhetoric that often seem not to tie the science with the solutions. My use of the term, Liberal Arts, to enclose non-science materials should not be viewed as pejorative, it might be that at my age, 75, I'm reflecting how we used to view much college curricula. Finally, the New Climate Research weekly listing are the best around and I thank you for those. You can imagine the flack I receive for my Climate Lecture...but those listings are "fingertip" rebuttals for some of the Denier materials I see every day. Thank You.
Moderator Response:[JH] For the record, DB snipped your comment about AOC saying nothing new that hasn't been said by people with more gray hair. He may snip it again. FWIW, I will celebrate my 76th birthday next week.
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campcarl at 00:14 AM on 6 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
Thanks for pointing out my mistake. I thought two of the authors were of a more reliable sort for quality work.
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kingster at 23:47 PM on 5 July 2019Where to find big ideas for addressing climate change
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
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bjchip at 16:24 PM on 5 July 2019Where to find big ideas for addressing climate change
I found this TED talk rather interesting in that context.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI
Alan Savory has a notion about stopping desertification. Looks useful.
Needs work to get it to happen though.
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:52 AM on 5 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
Agree with KR.
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KR at 11:08 AM on 5 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
campcarl - According to the abstract of that paper, they:
...investigate how introducing a potential iris feedback, the cloud-climate feedback introduced by parameterizing Cp to increase with surface temperature, affects future climate simulations within a slab-ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model...
So they are running simulations with a postulated but unsupported iris feedback, a mechanism postulated by Lindzen many years ago in a series of debunked papers, and seeing how that affects a simplistic climate model.
I really don't see how that's particularly newsworthy.
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Philippe Chantreau at 10:04 AM on 5 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
According to the abstract, new modeling suggests that the precipitation efficiency in a higher temperature regime may be higher than has been assessed so far, and that a corresponding decrease in cirrus (high altitude, ice clouds) shielding of downwelling SW radiation could be a consequence of that, providing a positive feedback that could be significant, but it is a very tentative finding. The abstract concludes:
"These results suggest a potentially strong but highly uncertain connection between convective precipitation, detrained anvil cirrus, and the high cloud feedback in a climate forced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations."
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campcarl at 07:16 AM on 5 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
"A Positive Iris Feedback: Insights from Climate Simulations with Temperature Sensitive Cloud-Rain Conversion"
This paper---which has topnotch authors---appears to have real importance to the public understanding of our climate future, and is thus newsworthy. Who is going to write a good review, that gives the full story and what it means?
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Jonas at 09:37 AM on 4 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
Thanks again to the SkS team to continue the research list!!
I also like bringing the "opener" to the main SkS theme:
Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism ..
The categories bring interesting new aspects of viewing ..I highly value this hard work of viewing, filtering, prioritizing,
categorizing, doing .. this list is unique in the internet, afaik.
Deep bowing (will continue to donate/advertise as much
as possible/useful .. finite money/attention of people ..).Virtual hug to the whole team.
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John Hartz at 01:54 AM on 4 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Swampfox: If you are indeed looking for the latest information about the scientific research findings about climate science to to keep your lectures current, the SkS New Climate Research weekly listings are made to order. Given the content of your posts, I suspect that you are more interested in scoring politicl points than in learning about new scientific research.
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John Hartz at 01:43 AM on 4 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Swampfox: As clearly stated in the green box of the OP, the Weekly News Roundup is "a chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week." Because the SkS FB page is a social media platform, I select of a variety of articles from around the world to post links to. Some articles focus on climate science and other articles focus on climate policy. I personally chose the articles to be linked to without oversight by the SkS volunteer team. Likewise, I personally select the article to be fetured as the "Editor's Pick."
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John Hartz at 01:29 AM on 4 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Recommended supplemental reading:
Meet generation Greta: young climate activists around the world by Anna Turns, Environment, Guardian, June 28, 2019
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nigelj at 07:17 AM on 3 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
swampfoxh @19 and 21, I always like reading your comments, but I get annoyed when people imply I'm making "liberal arts comments". I made some political comments at post 1 because the article covered political issues! Doh! How else can one respond if not politically? I based my comments on facts and what polls are telling us.
My main interest is the science and the technology of mitigation, but politics is embedded in the climate issue whether we like it or not. It seems artificial to put such issues off limits. This website was set up to expose denialist trickery, its not atmospheric physics 101, so I think there is room for rational political articles and discussion on occasion.
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Philippe Chantreau at 06:38 AM on 3 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
Solved, thanks.
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:13 AM on 3 July 2019Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019
Has the site's certificate expired? I'm getting an alert message to that effect. Hope it's not an attempt at hacking again.
Moderator Response:[DB] You may need to flush your browser's cache.
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ianw01 at 03:04 AM on 3 July 2019Why my fears about climate change made me cross the line that separates academia from activism
Ah ha! Perhaps "this nation" is one not mentioned in your post.
But even so, taking a path through solving war to get to the solution of our CO2 issues seems like an even bigger challenge.
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ianw01 at 02:15 AM on 3 July 2019Why my fears about climate change made me cross the line that separates academia from activism
@Saliance #2: You state
"The Pentagon ...generates more than 70 percent of this nation's total greenhouse gas emissions."
According to the World Bank, US defence spending in recent years has been about 3 to 4% of GDP. The claim of 70% is not believeable without more supporting info, and frankly undermines the credbility of the rest of your post. Please explain.
Moderator Response:[DB] Thank you for noting that. The claimant has been challenged to support that claim.
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ilfark2 at 01:48 AM on 3 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
At this point (unless someone on this site can fully dis-prove the catastrophists (tm), which they sort of addressed but didn't really disprove... yes, I know the research is scanty but Sharkova and some others point to real possibility of us being in abrupt climate change) it's very possible we have several years to change society if we want to avoid an ag-system induced collapse.
The IPCC has been way behind the science (understandably so), and if they say 11 years and note a bio-diversity collapse, that points to the real possibility things are going very bad very quickly.
So it's time for scientists and engineers to read some history, sociology, anthropology, and, ok poli-sci, to understand how this problem must be approached.
This also means they need to start understanding what is going on in the body politic, if they are going to talk about solutions.
A very large part of the skepticism has now been morphed into, "oh, we can't do that" or "we can't do that that quickly"...
This is where historical data comes in.
I.e., WWII mobilization in for the market oriented, centrally planned model and Free Catalonia of the 1930s for the non-market model.
Not saying we have to copy those (sure there are other examples) but if scientists want to be a part of the solution, they have to understand how to implement solutions in society.
E.g., the shortcomings of carbon taxes should alert scientitst and others this is dead end. Yet many of them seem to think "ah, if we implement it correctly..." point is, with oligopolies in power, policies will always be subverted, sooner or later. And we very likely don't have time for that nonsense.
Another one is divestment. Some scientists seem to think it toppled the Aparteid regime. It likely helped, but it was the people there that did it along with many other factors.
Even the WWII mobilization in the US was very messy and non-linear, though it was likely the most effective one on the planet. But there were many factors unique to that time an place as well as factors still here today.
It seems likely we'll have to do the WWII version, which means people need to understand how it was done.
First and foremost, money is no object when you own the printing press. You just have to ensure you let it chase the wrong stuff (WWII war mobilization involved 30-40% created money and inflation was kept at 7-10%)... see Stephani Kelton and the MMTers for a full break down.
But anyone that understands Keynsianism or even resever banking understands you can create money from thin air. The MMTers went so far as to outline how the Romans created money then markets (see Graeber's "Debt: First 5k...."
Given that and current tech we could change the whole economy in 3 - 5 yrs... as long as society is willing (as for WWII mobilization) to do it.
But we need politicians like the Great Savior of Capitalism FDR who said things like "I want 5000 destroyers by May 15...", "But sir, we don't have the capacity..." "well build the capacity..." and many of the "pie in the sky impossible" targets were met.
And most of that was accomplished by governemnt owned and operated shipyards who were more productive and efficient than the private ones.
So, yes, we can get to 0 emissions in a matter of a decade or less, but we have to understand market systems left alone or anything other than commandeered (as in the US WWII production) fully or by coercion ain't going to get us there in any reasonable time scale.
Unless we have 50 to 100 years to mess around with, in which case I'm just a silly alarmist. And it's not clear whether or not we do have that time (unless I missed a post on it), so it would seem better to get to negative emissions ASAP (which is likely materially possible in a few years but politically impossible).
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swampfoxh at 01:23 AM on 3 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
I've been attached to Skep/Sci for about the last 5 years, maybe six. I've noticed an increasing presence of contributors who talk a lot and take up a lot of space doing what I'm going to call, Liberal Arts "stuff". I'm beginning to think the people who run this site, perhaps, ought to screen out this material, somehow. I need to keep up with the plight of phytoplankton in the ocean, or the methane emissions from the Arctic permafrost...Liberal Arts stuff really gets in the way.
Moderator Response:[DB] Feel free to submit a relevant science- and evidence-based article of your own for consideration.
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swampfoxh at 01:08 AM on 3 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Wow. Think I opened a big cam of worms on this thread. AOC says nothing new that hasn't been said a hundred times before, and by people with the gray hair to elaborate on it. I too, wanted to have a site like this one in order to keep up with my climate lectures...I can get politics stuff anywhere. Political opinions are as numerous as anal openings, everybody's got one and they aren't all exactly the same. Science is conspicuously different and you actually learn something useful, so how about we all refrain from introducing political rhetoric into this place so there remains room left for peer-reviewed science to help us save the future? Eh?
Moderator Response:[DB] Political rhetoric snipped.
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MA Rodger at 00:40 AM on 3 July 2019They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
HelloThere @34,
The difference between your plot & the plot in the OP is the "corpus" searched. You use 'Corpus15' = "English" while the OP uses 'Corpus5' = "American English 2009" although there is little difference using 'Corpus17' = "American English". (The OP also uses a smooting of 3 while you use 5, but that is of no significance.)
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HelloThere at 22:31 PM on 2 July 2019They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
Hi,
Thank you for your work. Could you give the details of your Google plot please ? I failed to replicate it, I obtained this graphic. which sadly, though it does not show a decrease in the use of Global Warming, still could be interpreted by some (probably including the person I am trying to convince) as a decoupling of the two. This can probably be justified as Global Warming is only one of the aspects of Climate Change and maybe the news focused more on the other consequences after 1995, but I think to avoid accusations of bad faith maybe it would be better to have access to the steps to replicate this.
Cheers
Moderator Response:[JH] The graphic linked to exceeded page width limit of 350 pixels. I embedded it into the word "graphic".
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Tom Dayton at 13:15 PM on 2 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
After getting a BA from Florida’s honors college, New College, I worked as a night janitor while I figured out what to do next, then did the work needed to do that. It is a chronic “problem” for New College’s “success” criteria submitted to the state of Florida. Ended up with a PhD, post doc at IBM’s Watson Research Center, Bellcore, and so on. Not actually a problem.
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Philippe Chantreau at 07:37 AM on 2 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
AOC working as bartender after graduation proves nothing at all. The first job one finds after college is more of a reflection of their willingness to work than anything else. Has the conservative ideology changed so much that one should now be expected to sit on their butt until they find the perfect fit to their education level intheir area of study, counting on society to provide for their needs until that happens? That'd be new one.
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John Hartz at 06:54 AM on 2 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's response to the attacks made on her employment record by the Republican/Tea Party echo chamber including jjworld #12...
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Daniel Bailey at 06:24 AM on 2 July 2019Climate's changed before
Since the peak temperatures of the Holocene 7,000 years ago, global temperatures naturally cooled 0.8 C.
Over the past 100 years, the warming from human activities has warmed the globe 0.8 C, utterly erasing that natural 7,000-year cooling.
With plenty more warming to come.
Bigger image here.
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Daniel Bailey at 06:21 AM on 2 July 2019Climate's changed before
Current peak global temperatures have already exceeded those of the Eemian OR the Holocene, looking at the land station data (red):
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ilfark2 at 06:18 AM on 2 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Global Warming is inherently political if you take the view we have to implement a WWII scale mobilization.
BTB, "socialism" originally meant "for society", while "capitalism" meant "for capital".
The Paris Commune, Free Catalonia of the 1930s, Mondragon to the extent worker owned/operated enteriprises can do so in a sea of Capitalism, Rojova (last I checked, maybe gone by now), the Zapatistas in Chiapas (Mexico) among many others through space and time democratized resources. I.e., means of production, food, shelter, education, healthcare.
And yes, under these systems you own your home (everyone gets one you can't get evicted from), and everyone gets a say in all the things that affect you per the amount they affect you. E.g., you have ane equal say in the operation of your work place. Means of production are democratically owned and operated.
Stalinism, Maoism along with any other system that destroyed democracy at any levels of life shold not be considered socialism by a reasonable person.
A nice intro to some of the history of various sorts of systems "for society", can be had in "It's not over..." by Dolak.
There's also a website called ZComm (google "Z Communications").
Among others doubtless.
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TVC15 at 06:10 AM on 2 July 2019Climate's changed before
@ 756 Daniel Bailey
Thank you!
Is our current Holoceen cooler than previous interglacial periods...thus there is nothing to worry about? A denialist posted this.
From my understanding we should be in a cooling era but as we all know we are in a warming era.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:52 AM on 2 July 2019CO2 effect is saturated
Jjworld,
You have a severe reading comprehension problem. I did not call you, Morano, or anyone ignorant or worthless. I called Morano's comment ignorant and worthless, and I stand by that statement. There is plenty of scientific literature to justify calling it that, literature that you have declined to discover, despite being repeatedly pointed toward it. Now if you want to have your little feelings all hurt and be a snowflake by proxy of an inanimate thing like a comment, be my guest.
You say "I think the site is arguing that Morano is not including heat retained by convection." You think wrong. The site does not mention convection a single time. I read it again, the word convection does not appear in the OP. You pulled it out of thin air, showed that you do not understand what it means, then argued about it. That pathetic attempt at spreading the confusion raging i your mind is evident here too: "the convection story does NOT invalidate the saturation argument." There is no convection story othe than what you made up.
jjworld " I do have concerns with the calculations that attempt to explain the amount of heat trapped by convection." I am not aware of any atmospheric dynamics that can accomplish that, you must cite scientific works including such calculations and expose where you believe the weaknesses are.
Further "convection delivery molecule". What in the world is that? How do molecules deliver convection?
"The thread quotes Hulburt." No, it does not. Where is the quote? Who the heck is Hulburt, why is it relevant? The name, or a quote from the person does not figure anywhere in the OP.
"The error rate is so large" talking about the diagrams at the top of this page. What is the error rate? Where is the error rate in the diagrams? These diagrams have no other purpose than to explain concepts in a graphic way to a lay audience; as such they do not contain any numbers. They are not graphs of exact data, they are not calculations, they are not from scientific publications, so your attack of "who would want to publish that" is once again BS, completely removed from any reality. Nothing but hot air.
"When the climate moves the molecules around we have tremendous negative feedback." SO the climate moves molecules around? I would have thought that weather does that. In any case, there is an immense scientific literature on feedbacks, positive and negative. Your arguments seems to be that negative feedbacks prevail; it is again, nothing but hot air if not supported by scientific work, where are the citations?
"we don't even know if CO2 molecules are the primary convection vehicle or just a secondary heat transport." What in the world could this possibly mean other than that you do not have any grasp of the subject?
This funny one " I think we are both agreeing that Morano is correct if we are only talking about radiative heat." So grotesque, it truly falls within the not even wrong category. We do not agree at all, and Morano is so far from being correct that he would need a super fast "vehicle" (of convection or other) to make it back to relelvance within his lifetime.
This "If CO2 can possibly hold more heat through convection, it can possibly not hold enough heat to explain the temperature anomalies." comes in response to being pointed to the fact that having the central part of the radiation spectrum of CO2 saturated does not preclude the possibility of absorbing more heat, namely in the wings of the spectrum. In a sort of lawyer fashion, you latch on the word possibility and attempt to sow confusion, as if it meant probability, when in this case, it means capability. The gas does absorb more, that can be demonstrated by both experiment and calculation.
This gem is priceless "I just wish we could be intellectually honest about what we don't know" and then a suggestion that Morano is a scientist, and "incomplete." I'll let readers appreciate the supreme irony.
You have been pointed in the right direction and have refused to engage with that. You have attributed fantasy-like concepts to the OP, and a careful read shows that it is all pure invention on your part. You have been asked repeatedly to support you extremely wide-ranging and bold assertions with references, and the only one you mustered does not accomplish anything close to that.
You have contributed thousands of words to this thread, and so far they amount to little more than technical sounding word salad.
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Tom Dayton at 04:01 AM on 2 July 2019Soares finds lack of correlation between CO2 and temperature
Wiffrantz, it appears you did not read this post that you commented on. Please do.
If you really were a statistician, you would be acutely aware that finding a correlation between just one of several causes of an effect requires isolating that one cause, for example by multiple correlation analysis. See the post "CO2 is main driver of climate," and note that it is not the only driver.
If you really were a statistician, you would be aware of the time dependence of bidirectional causality. Over very long periods, warming oceans have released CO2 and so increased atmospheric levels after the warming. In other cases, CO2 has been released by other sources, thereby causing warming after the CO2 releases. In the past 150 years, humans have caused increased atmospheric CO2 levels, which has then caused warming.
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Wffrantz at 03:42 AM on 2 July 2019Soares finds lack of correlation between CO2 and temperature
If CO2 was a primary factor in global heat forcing, then we'd expect to see easy-to-find correlations between CO2 levels and global temperatures.
For example, we know that from the laws of heat transfer that the thermal output from a blow torch has an impact on the temperature of the object at which the blow torch is heating. The greater the temperature of the flame relative to the temperature of the object, the faster that the temperature of the object increases.
We also know that correlations can be found in unlikely pairs. For example, World-Wide Noncommercial Space Launches is highly correlated with the number of US Sociology Doctorates awarded in the US. If statistics are done well, conclusions like that can be avoided.
So let's assume that greenhouse gases are real (they are) and that they have a direct impact on global earth temperatures (clearly yes, but is the relationship strong or the strongest as in the case of the blow torch?). Read "As I turn up the blow torch output in heat, the temperature of the object will rise. If I correlate the temperature delta between the torch flame and object to the temperature change of the object, I'll find a 99%+ correlation."
Clearly we don't expect to find that size of correlation when considering a system as complex as global earth temperatures.
But be honest. Before you read farther, what would you expect the correlation to be? 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%?
My question is this. When I correlated 400K years of Vostok CO2 and temperature changes sliced into 100 year blocks, the correlation was only 7%. And when trying to predict the next 100 years of temperature change from change in CO2, the correlation dropped in half. Yet when doing the same to the Milankovich data, the predictive correlation was higher than the time-aligned correlation. If CO2 is a primary factor, then
1) Why is the correlation so low?
2) With CO2 levels at record highs (thermal forcing should be at its max), why was 2018 cooler than the prior four years?
As a statitician, I've learned that it is:
- easy to model the past (e.g., the stock market).
- one cannot use a modeling fit of the past to make assumptions about model accuracy in the future. That is a dangerous assumption.
- the only way to do the later is to:
... evaluate the model in the future using a Kalman filter that has an overall control loop to dampen the prediction if predictions are not accurate.
... changes to a model in time starts from scratch when trying to predict the future (a model must earn its accuracy in real time).
... evaluate delta changes, not absolute values (screens out false positives). We are talking physics. If their is a predictive correlation in absolute value then there will be the same correlation in deltas.
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Daniel Bailey at 01:43 AM on 2 July 2019Climate's changed before
Here's those details and links on vineyards then vs now:
While England had 42 vineyards at the time of the Domesday Book, as is well known, there are now over 300 commercial English vineyards today. So the climate today in England is much more conducive to wine-making than during the Roman occupation of England.http://www.english-wine.com/vineyards.html
"It is generally agreed that the Romans introduced the vine to Britain. It has also been inferred that the climate in Britain at that time was warmer. At the end of the first century AD, however, the writer Tacitus declared that our climate was “objectionable”, and not at all suitable for growing vines.
Today, there are vineyards in nearly every county of England and Wales, and there are vines now planted in Scotland. Much of the acreage and vineyards lie in the southern part of England, and more specifically Kent, Sussex, Surrey and Hampshire. Those few hundred acres first planted has now grown to over 5,000. In the last ten years alone, the acreage planted has more than doubled, and nearly tripled since 2000. Last year, around 1 million vines were planted – the highest planting in a single year, and perhaps a higher volume is set to be planted in 2018. All of this will lead to some substantial increases in production."
Emphasis and underlining added.
https://www.winegb.co.uk/visitors/background-info/history-of-the-industry/
By 1977, there were 124 reasonable-sized vineyards in production – more than at any other time over the previous millennium. The website of the English wine producers suggests that at present extent of vineyards in Britain probably surpasses that of the Medieval Warm Period between circa 900 AD to 1300 AD.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/
https://www.eh-resources.org/historical-climatology/
In case anyone was wondering about Vikings and vineyards:“Let me…assure you that the last wine plants to grow in Greenland were those that grew…60 million years ago.”
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TVC15 at 00:48 AM on 2 July 2019Climate's changed before
@ [PS] LOL that's a new one on me. I had never heard of it so it must be a desperate attempt by this denier!
@753 Philippe Chantreau
I thought the same thing...what the heck does wine making in England have to do with anything. Glad to be able to expose this denier as he's been commanding the stage for quite some time as if he's some sort of expert! *rolled eyes*
@ 754 Daniel Bailey
Agree his house of cards has been slowly tumbling down since I arrived to "educate" him.
Thanks everyone I've been learning a lot from you all!
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Kevin C at 20:55 PM on 1 July 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Part of the purpose of Skeptical Science is to equip science communciators to better communicate science into science-hostile environments. From my perspective, anything that Greta Thunberg says or does is something I want to read about, because she is someone from whom I as a climate scientist have a lot to learn. And while politicians are an incomprehensible alien species, I am interested in how they interact with scientists and advocates for science.
The Thunberg article and the PPI article would be my top two picks.
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