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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 104151 to 104200:

  1. Renewable Baseload Energy
    tt23 it looks like my interpretation of the document was incorrect, however I don't agree with your interpretation either!
  2. Antarctica is gaining ice
    Please comment on the accuracy of the following. The following statements appear to be correct. 1. Atmospheric heat, worldwide, has been steadily increasing from year to year for the past two decades. 2. Worldwide, the total volume of earth's ice has been in decline for the past two decades. 3. The cause appears to be the increased greenhouse effect as levels of atmospheric CO2 grew from 280ppm in the 1950's to the current level of 390ppm in 2010. 4. Estimates for the residence time of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere range from a low of 1000 years to estimates as high as 100,000 years. If the foregoing statements are accurate is it also accurate to conclude their signifigance as? 1. Any program designed to reduce our future global carbon footprint can have no effect on slowing or reducing the advance of climate change until the minimum residence lifetime of the anthropogenic CO2 already aloft (390ppm)is achieved or some currently undeveloped geoengineering response is able to remove anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere to one or more of the other compartments of the carbon cycle. 2. The melting of ice worldwide will continue, uninterrupted, until all of the ice is melted if the time it will take to melt it all is less than the minimum anticipated residence lifetime of current levels of anthropogenic CO2 already aloft (1,000 years). 3. The increase in levels of atmospheric temperature to be expected from an ice free planet are almost certain to exceed human capacity to survive.
  3. Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
    #69: "if the study had been powered to directly compare HRM to CRM," Here is a UK study that seems to have done just that and found it's pretty much a wash: a mean relative risk of 1.03 was estimated per degree increase above the heat threshold, defined as the 95th centile of the temperature distribution in each region, and 1.06 per degree decrease below the cold threshold (set at the 5th centile). And yet the mis-conception lives on, thanks to sloppy work such as: Lomborg postulates that rising temperatures will cause fewer people to die. He postulates that in Europe and North America today, many more people die due to excess cold compared to those that die due to excess heat. And with global warming, the decline in numbers of cold-related mortalities will be much larger than the rise in heat-related mortalities. No wonder confusion is rampant. If you see it in the movies (or worse on TV), it must be true.
  4. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    "We are expected to provide advice and assistance and we are entitled to seek clarification if it is not clear what information is required. It is not for us to judge whether the information provided has any value. I appreciate that those, including scientists, may find this irksome for their valuable and hard won information to be released in this manner, which is one of the many reasons why professional staff should be used to deal with these requests. Objectivity is essential." So I've read one of the original FOI responses that pissed off McI so deeply. It 1. Pointed out that the data wasn't UEA's to give 2. Said that UEA was working on getting the data available, and hoped to be able to release it in the future. Eminently reasonable, IMO.
  5. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Re: h-j-m (177) "My explanation will no way predict a tropospheric hot spot so you can cease looking for it." That's OK, it's already been found here and has been confirmed more recently here (source study here). The Yooper
  6. Renewable Baseload Energy
    RSVP #11 - please don't misrepresent what I said. This article has nothing whatsoever to do with population. Nor does it talk about impact on global temperatures because no specific numbers are discussed. Unlike the comments, I stuck to the topic at hand in the article. This is a rebuttal of the 'skeptic' argument "Renewables can't provide baseload power". The fact that CO2 is causing global warming is addressed in many, many other articles on this site. If you want to argue that fact, do it in one of those articles.
  7. Renewable Baseload Energy
    RSVP, On point #3, you are still stuck on waste heat. That point was repeatedly rehashed with you over hundreds of comments at Waste heat vs greenhouse warming. Anthropogenic waste heat contributes 1% of the warming that greenhouse gas warming does and is non-accumulative unlike greenhouse gases.
  8. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Sorry, a part of the quote is missing. The list of *Exclusions* again: (A) the failure of the sponsor to take any action required by law or regulation; (B) events within the control of the sponsor; or (C) normal business risks.
  9. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @109 The Ville at 06:34 AM on 29 November, 2010 tt23 stated: "Loan guarantees only remove the risk related to GOVERNMENT regulatory screwups beyond the control of the vendor, not to vendor screwups, or normal business risks." > tt23 Please do read the law by yourself, in particular I suggest you don't cherry pick. Yes I did, now lets look into the details: > SEC. 638. STANDBY SUPPORT FOR CERTAIN NUCLEAR PLANT DELAYS. > "(A) the failure of the Commission to comply with sched- > ules for review and approval of inspections, tests, analyses... This is failure of "the Commission", meaning the NRC, which is a part of the government. If the screwup is on the part of the Commission, the guarantee holds, if it is on the side of the vendor or investor, it does not. Exactly as I said. > (B) litigation that delays the commencement of full- > power operations of the advanced nuclear facility." > Please note that it does not state litigation as the result of government > regulatory screwups. > The litigation clause is a general one, eg. the loan guarantee would cover delays caused by environmentalists litigating against the nuclear energy company. Litigation can delay the project only if government has a role in it. According to the current rules, if the plant operator has COL (which it gets before the plant is in construction), and if the vendor followed all the NRC rules, there is no possibility of litigation to stop it, unless the government gets in the way. Again, as I said.. > Or in other words it DOES COVER NORMAL BUSINESS RISKS! Explicitly NO! Please consider the following: (2) EXCLUSIONS.—The Secretary may not enter into any contract under this section that would obligate the Secretary to pay any costs resulting from— (A) the failure of the sponsor to take any action required by law or regulation; (B) events within the control (C) normal business risks. > Delays can be caused by anything. Yes they can be caused by anything, which is why those delays which are covered are specified in the law. It does not cover anything, please read carefully the list of Exclusions. > Apart from this bizarre attempt at re-interpreting legislation, Bizarre attempt on YOUR side, sir!
  10. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Three separate points. 1) It would seem that part of the "solution" requires failing, since the more you "solve" the problem, the bigger the problem gets,... unless of course you address growth limits apriori as part of the bargain. The article even says, "Of course in an ideal world, renewable sources would meet all of our energy needs." Well, why not make adjustments (that affect demand) for this to be the case? Of course going along with this is basically admitting that GW is a population issue... but dont bother, since it is already implied in the quote. 2) The other thing having to do with nuclear as the "only" solution. I would ask, what difference does it make for nuclear to be the only solution (assuming this were possible) if you're going to have nuclear as part of the package anyway? 3) Last item. Absolutely no mention in this article of the long term thermal impact for adopting these solutions. After all, wasnt global warming the whole point of this website? Or do we have to have all those nuclear plants installed first in order to discover ocean temperatures slowly rising for some mysterious reason? And yes, I know, all this is a waste of time and space given the absolute certainty that CO2 is the only significant cause of global warming, and as long as CO2 isnt somehow attached (on the surface) to the solution, it is a great idea.
  11. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    h-j-m, You have successfully described the greenhouse effect. One point of note: That in turn may cause more green house gases to be released. Yes, that is how it happened historically. An initial forcing factor, such as a solar irradiance increase caused by an orbital change (Milankovitch cycles), caused a temperature increase. This temperature increase caused the release of CO2 from the oceans which increased the temperature further and caused more oceanic CO2 release. That isn't what is happening currently. The oceans & terrestrial biomes have been net CO2 absorbers during this recent warming. CO2 is coming from the ocean (argument #87)
  12. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Riccardo... Exactly!! Too often people miss the simple solution of efficiency because it's just not as sexy as new technology.
  13. Renewable Baseload Energy
    tt23 stated: "Loan guarantees only remove the risk related to GOVERNMENT regulatory screwups beyond the control of the vendor, not to vendor screwups, or normal business risks." tt23 Please do read the law by yourself, in particular I suggest you don't cherry pick. SEC. 638. STANDBY SUPPORT FOR CERTAIN NUCLEAR PLANT DELAYS. "(A) the failure of the Commission to comply with sched- ules for review and approval of inspections, tests, analyses... (B) litigation that delays the commencement of full- power operations of the advanced nuclear facility." Please note that it does not state litigation as the result of government regulatory screwups. The litigation clause is a general one, eg. the loan guarantee would cover delays caused by environmentalists litigating against the nuclear energy company. "(1) INGENERAL.—Subject to paragraphs (2), (3), and (4), the costs that shall be paid by the Secretary pursuant to a contract entered into under this section are the costs that result from a delay covered by the contract." Or in other words it DOES COVER NORMAL BUSINESS RISKS! Delays can be caused by anything. Lets just understand what a loan guarantee is for normal folk. When you take out a loan, there are risks that mean you might not be able to pay, so you pay someone to insure the loan against problems paying it. Without the insurance, you might not get the loan because the lender may consider the risks to high. Apart from this bizarre attempt at re-interpreting legislation, tt23 highlights the very reasons why nuclear energy has specific risks that need to be insured against.
  14. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    FoIA/EIR/DPA give individuals the right of access to information. These rights do not come with any obligation to do anything with the information obtained. Any request for information does not have to include any indication of use. Moreover, those dealing with requests are not entitled to ask what use the requester intends, even though that may assist us in helping them with their request. This is quite true, but is very important for everyone to keep in mind that the credibility of the skeptics depends very much on what they have done (or in every case seen so far, have *not* done) with the information. The take-home message here, is regardless of whether the CRU handled all FOI requests properly, the individuals making the FOI requests have demonstrated in spades that they have no credibility (or integrity, for that matter). This may be a little OT with respect to this thread, but it is a message that people need to be told, loudly and clearly. The skeptics' motives were all nefarious. The skeptics haven't even *tried* to produce anything constructive or worthwhile with the data made available to them, *even though they have had all the time and resources necessary* for them to do so. The global-warming "skeptics" who have accused the CRU of manipulating data have not made the slightest effort to perform the data analysis that might confirm their accusations, even though all the data they needed to do so was served up to them on a silver platter. At this time it is safe to conclude that the "skeptics" who have been bashing the CRU and other climate-research institutions for allegedly "manipulating data" have *zero* integrity (whether or not the CRU actually fumbled any legitimate FOI requests).
  15. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Just an afterthought. My explanation will no way predict a tropospheric hot spot so you can cease looking for it.
  16. Renewable Baseload Energy
    I'd like to second Rob Honeycutt #107. In the messy business of rethinking the energy structure of our society there's only one thing we know for sure, no single substitute to fossile fuels will exists in the foreseable future. This is why we need profound changes in the way we produce and use energy. Speaking of which, I noticed that not many like to talk about energy savings. There's ample room to save energy; look at the energy consumption per capita and you'll see large differences between devoloped countries with similar life styles. We are terribly inefficient.
  17. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Phil, my original point was that the mentioned isolation (blanket) analogy is no way valid to explain the facts. How you rephrased this is of no concern to me. Now let me try to give my view on the green house effect which indeed leads to the conclusion that the green house effect does not interfere with the second law of thermodynamics, but for reasons that so far have just been mentioned here but not explained. In my posts #148 and #162 I tried to show that green house gases differ from other gases in their ability to store (trap) heat (falsely hoping nobody would object to that) at a significant higher rate than other gases. From here the argument is simple. Higher concentrations of green house gases in the the atmosphere will allow the more energy to be stored in the atmosphere. Due to the chemical composition of green house gases the bulk of that energy has to be drawn from surface emissions. As a result the energy content of the atmosphere is higher than before. In consequence incoming radiation will be less able to heat the atmosphere and more of it will reach and heat the surface. That in turn may cause more green house gases to be released. This explanation does not rely on back-radiation to heat the surface and therefore does not contradict the second law of thermodynamics.
  18. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Kaj L @103... Waste is not a problem? It seems to currently be a problem. I gotta say, anyone who claims that ANY solution is a panacea is not serious. These are very complex issues for all the potential solutions. It's going to require encouraging all potential solutions in order to effectively address the issues we face.
  19. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Alexandre #92 - the air car is basically just a less efficient electric car. It's a little cheaper for the timebeing, but it will lose that sole advantage as batteries become cheaper. As a general comment, this article really has nothing to do with nuclear power, and it's kind of aggravating that the comments have been hijacked into a nuclear argument. It's hard to resist, because people are making incorrect statements about nuclear power, and then moving the goalposts so that the argument keeps going. But this really isn't the place to be arguing about nuclear power. Please stick to the topic on hand, which is the ability of renewable energy to provide baseload power, and whether it's even necessary.
  20. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    Mikel @69, Thanks. Again, good points. One has to understand that in this case there was a history of people from ClimateAudit requesting information that was (freely) available elsewhere, which ClimateAudit knew CRU were not entitled to release, and even removing data from CRU servers (without permission). Also, the sheer volume of the requests in such a short time indicates that the requests were not legitimate, not to mention the fact that they were all for the same number of stations, many from overseas and at least one request provided no contact details. This is beyond suspicious, especially when one applies context. Given that you are familiar with the ins and outs of the legalities, is there any recourse for UEA/CRU to pursue action (legal or otherwise) against those people known to have orchestrated the requests under discussion? Surely, the FoIA has to be streamlined to strongly discourage such behaviour in the future?
  21. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Folks, Just a heads up that user tt23 may not be the most reliable or reality-based source of information on energy, especially as it relates to nuclear and renewables - although it looks like several of you have worked that out already! One of his classics: "Wind and solar are proven as hypes." He's like the energy equivalent of Anthony Watts. ;)
  22. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Re: Kaj L (103)
    "the waste is not a problem"
     Seriously? Channeling your inner Lang, I see. The Yooper
  23. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    Albatross @68 "Now to the "skeptics" here -- what have you guys done with it? Once again, can you show us even *one* legitimate research/analysis result that you've produced (peer-reviewed or not) that shows any significant problems with the CRU's work?" This particular post on this blog has FOI as it's topic and I'll answer the question from that perspective. FoIA/EIR/DPA give individuals the right of access to information. These rights do not come with any obligation to do anything with the information obtained. Any request for information does not have to include any indication of use. Moreover, those dealing with requests are not entitled to ask what use the requester intends, even though that may assist us in helping them with their request. We are expected to provide advice and assistance and we are entitled to seek clarification if it is not clear what information is required. It is not for us to judge whether the information provided has any value. I appreciate that those, including scientists, may find this irksome for their valuable and hard won information to be released in this manner, which is one of the many reasons why professional staff should be used to deal with these requests. Objectivity is essential.
  24. Renewable Baseload Energy
    You could power the whole world with nuclear power for thousands of years. There is plenty of uranium and thorium, and the waste is not a problem. To understand the whole potential of nuclear power, a good place to start is this: http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/10/16/ifr-spm/ Look also "For further reading". We can compare for example wind to nuclear. In France they built 29 nuclear power plants in just 10 years. That was enough to get the same power capacity as with the wind power in the whole world in the same time. http://wp.me/pbZwh-wN There are plenty of pure nonsense out there about nuclear power. The same kind as there are about climate change. You could ask, do they have something in common? Who will benefit of climate inaction and from keeping nuclear out of the business? Hmm...just thinking...
  25. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    h-j-m @173 Your original point was, as I paraphrased at @152: Since GHG's absorb in the visible (as well as the infra-red), doesn't increasing the concentration mean that the earth receives less energy because the subsequent emission of that radiation scatters some of it into space - back radiation on incoming EM which thus goes into space. To answer to this in @161 you derived two numbers that measured the total visible absorption by the atmosphere of incoming EM by all gases in the atmosphere and the absorption of outgoing IR radiation by only GHGs. Since the numbers the first number was slightly smaller than the first, you then concluded that the magnitude of the difference was small: [Quote from @161] So, yes you are right, the green house house effect is stronger on outgoing radiation though I hardly assume the magnitude of the difference satisfied your strong wording. But the "magnitude of the difference" is not valid because you are not comparing like for like.
  26. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    Mikel @66, Thanks for that information. And a question that caerbannog asked is worth repeating: "Now to the "skeptics" here -- what have you guys done with it? Once again, can you show us even *one* legitimate research/analysis result that you've produced (peer-reviewed or not) that shows any significant problems with the CRU's work?" The answer? Nothing of course-- because they were clearly not interested in the data, but rather harassing UEA/CRU in their ongoing vendetta against the scientists there.
  27. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    h-j-m, greenhouse gases absorb wavelengths of radiation that are plentifully emitted by the Earth but only weakly emitted by the Sun, thereby acting as a partially closed valve that traps energy below the top of the atmosphere.
  28. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @Camburn (#99): why is it an "either/or" choice? Why does it have to be nuclear, but not nuclear combined to wind and PVs (including from small independent producers, i.e. individuals who sell back power to the utility companies)? "It is time to stop arguing and get moving." It's not the PV/Wind/CPS/Nuclear debate that is slowing things down, but the anti-AGW propaganda pushed by conservative think tanks that are financed by Oil interests, such as the Koch brothers. Our Energy Strategy needs to be multi-pronged: solar (both CPS and PVs), Wind, Geothermal, Tidal Power, Nuclear *and* (to a very limited degree) fossil fuels, at least in the first couple of decades. One of the solutions is to stop subsidizing fossil fuels, and start transferring those sums to renewables/alternatives.
  29. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @Camburn: "This topic is about renewables/alternatives. We can discuss co2 sensativity on another thread." I'm just trying to figure out your position, here. If you don't believe in AGW, why do you care about renewables/alternatives? The only way this would make sense is if you're taking a contrary position on principle, i.e. you will oppose whatever appears to be the most supported position out of a desire for confrontation... Just tell me if you agree with the following statement, which is completely on-topic: "We need to curb our CO2 emmissions, and thus must seriously consider renewables and other energy alternatives." A simple yes or no will sufffice.
  30. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @quokka: "If you want to see what is achievable, watch China in the next few years with the construction of standardized designs and increasing engineering experience." The same China who is also putting billions in renewables, to bring them to a level of output similar to their planned NPPs? It seems like the Chinese agree with me and others here, i.e. Nuclear is part of the solution, but far from the only solution.
  31. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Phil, my calculations assume nothing except what I wrote they assume which is 1. the assumption that differences between TOA and surface provide a measurement for the green house effect and 2. that the numbers from Trenberth's diagram are reliably correct. Following your argument the first assumption should be incorrect but then I am the wrong man to point your critique at.
  32. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    Regarding the data that "skeptics" had demanded access to via FOI requests, it turns out that all of that data had been available to them all along. The data that the CRU refused to release was available for the asking (and signing of nondisclosure agreements) from the organizations that actually owned said data. Now, given the skeptics actions (FOI demands, etc.), one would get the impression that they *really* wanted the data in question and were "chomping at the bit" to do some real work verifying the CRU's published results. Now, can anyone here point to even *one* legitimate research result produced by the "skeptics" who had been pestering the CRU? Mind you, the skeptics have had access to all the data and information they needed to conduct independent checks on the CRU's work, and they've had access to the data/information for *years*. Now to the "skeptics" here -- what have you guys done with it? Once again, can you show us even *one* legitimate research/analysis result that you've produced (peer-reviewed or not) that shows any significant problems with the CRU's work? It's not like you guys haven't had enough time (you've had full access to all the data you've needed for *years*). It's not like you don't have access low-cost computing resources. Hardware these days is dirt cheap, and all of the software that you need is available for free (i.e. Linux, GCC/G++, SciLab, R, etc. etc.). So given all the data, time, and computing resources that you have had at your fingertips for *years*, what have you guys actually done?
  33. Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
    @KL: " I have never claimed that they had no case - but that the case is more or less exaggerated." Yes, and you have been unable to demonstrate any such exaggeration. It's clear you are here for political reasons, i.e. to continue to muddy the waters and delay any action on AGW. In fact, it took me about 5 minutes to figure this out the first time I read one of your posts...
  34. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Use your imagination: The year is 2020. Compromise was effected in the year 2010. (I am talking only the US here) We look out on our vast nation with pride. CPS is being utilized, within practical restraints in the South West. The rest of the country is being supplied with electricity from regional nuclear. Co2 emissions are virtually nill for each kw of elec produced. By using regional nuclear, a huge infrastructure of new power lines has been eliminated. Scenerio 2: It is the year 2020. People are still arguing that pv/wind is the solution. co2 is being emitted with each kw of elec produced. The solution is before us folks. It is time to stop arguing and get moving.
  35. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    yocta, in my post #148 my question was "what specifically makes green house gases so special". Which means: What effects do green house gases produce that other gases don't? I am sorry and apologize if my initial phrasing led to any misunderstanding. When you state at the beginning of your post you are going to answer the question "Why is CO2 a greenhouse gas?" clearly indicates some sort of misunderstanding must have taken place.
  36. Climategate: Impeding Information Requests?
    Some further legal clarifications, seeing as some commenters persist in making inaccurate statements. Firstly, in the UK, a person is presumed innocent of an offence until proved guilty in a court of law. As far as I can ascertain, the only police investigation is into the access to the CRU server and I presume that this could result in a charge under the Computer Misuse Act. I am not aware of any investigation into an offence under the Data Protection Act. The Information Commissioner (ICO) has stated that the time limit has expired for any prosecution under Regulation 19 of the EIR or Section 77 under the Freedom of Information Act. The ICO has therefore ruled out any investigation as to whether an offence under R19 or S 77 has been committed. The Muir Russell report stated that "we have seen no evidence to delete information in respect of a request already made." Conclusion: Professor Jones stays innocent. Incidentally, the law may be changed to remove the time limit and the ICO will be more circumspect in dealing with the media! Whether others think the requests were "vexatious" or manifestly unreasonable, UEA did not reject those requests on that basis. The clear inference is that the requests, as far as UEA was concerned and they would be the ones affected, did not fall under those exemptions. UEA/CRU sought permission to release the data from those supplying it and only withheld the specific data when permission was denied.
  37. Renewables can't provide baseload power
    I believe the answer to utility scale electricity storage is at http://www.launchpnt.com/portfolio/grid-scale-electricity-storage.html Pumped Hydro Storage is generally accepted as the best way of storing electricity. The problem is you need a mountain and mountains are usually (and quite rightly) stoutly defended by the environmental lobby. Gravity Power ticks all the pumped storage boxes PLUS it can be sited almost anywhere with minimal environmental issues. It can store GW scale power over hours or even days if necessary and at a fraction of the cost of traditional PHS. It can be used as load follower or peaking plant and it can mitigate for the variability of wind and solar.
  38. Renewable Baseload Energy
    archiesteel@82: This topic is about renewables/alternatives. We can discuss co2 sensativity on another thread. Thank you
  39. Renewable Baseload Energy
    quokka wrote : "If you have some evidence of unsafe practices in the construction of Chinese NPPs then out with it. Otherwise these type of comments belong in the "doubt is our business" bin." Not wishing to go any further off-topic, all I have to say is that if you have to try to ignore the problems involved with Chinese construction projects generally (especially low wages and less concern for regulations), then you just want to ignore any problem (especially political, and those to do with waste-disposal) just so you can say that nuclear is the answer come-what-may. It isn't - it is part of the answer but not one that we should rely on to a greater extent than renewables as a whole. Maybe your comments belong in the "complete faith in my business" bin ?
  40. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    h-j-m @161 Your calculations are not correct because they assume that scattering of incoming UV-visible EM and outgoing IR are done by the same molecules in the atmosphere. The largest contributor to scattering UV-visible light is, in fact, Ozone (O3) which is contributing a substantial proportion of your 1.48 figure. You are, in effect, comparing apples with oranges.
  41. The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
    There's a paper in JGR Oct 2010 Associations of diurnal temperature range change with the leading climate variability modes during the Northern Hemisphere wintertime and their implication on the detection of regional climate trends. Qigang Wu doi:10.1029/2010JD014026 While claiming to measure part of the DTR as coming from external forcing (anthropogenic or natural - no claim here of a human fingerprint) they assign most of the Tmax and Tmin warming trend and the decreasing DTR trend to by internal climate variability modes. Here's their numbers "Approximately 87%, 76%, and 43% of the total Tmax, Tmin, and DTR trends over NH land are accounted for by the three climate indices together [AO,PNA,PDO], respectively; these numbers drop to about 13%, 38%, and 62% represented by the AAO index over the SH land. At the global scale, 1.41 K of 1.60 K [88%] of warming of Tmax, 1.64 K of the 2.02 K [81%] warming of Tmin, 0.25 K of 0.43 K [58%] of cooling of the DTR during JFM of 1951–2000 is linearly congruent with the indices of four circulation modes considered here." (I added the square brackets)
  42. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    "Wow, yocta" Double-plus good job! Here are some illustrations of the CO2 molecule's vibrational modes.
  43. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    addendum to yocta @167 Its also true that the asymmetric isotopic variants of O2 and N2 absorb ever-so slightly in the IR: N14-N15 for example. This is because the stretching vibration becomes ever so slightly asymmetric because of the differing weights of the two nuclei. Because the dipole moment change is so small, and the proportion of isotopes so small, and the frequencies at which these vibrations occur is outside the range of "earthlight" their contribution to the GHE is effectively zero. Nevertheless there was one contributor to this site trying to argue the case a few months back :-(
  44. The question that skeptics don't want to ask about 'Climategate'
    PC #158 Physics based models still make a host of assumptions. All the forcings used to calculate the TOA imbalances have variably wide error bars. eg: Cloud albedo and the reflectivity of the planet is assumed to be about 30% of the imcoming TSI. What if this is 1% in error ie. 29.7 to 30.3% - that alone accounts for 1.0W/sq.m and either doubles of wipes out the current estimated TOA imbalance of 0.9W/sq.m Can you then cycle your 'physics' based models 50 years (or 600 months) and still assume that reflection is 30% in every cycling? Again a 1% error in this factor alone would end up at 64% if cycled 50 times. ie. 1.01^50 = 1.64 A simple example but input this into a difference or sum equation and the result could be vastly amplified.
  45. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Agnostic (#83) Geothermal has one caveat which is sustaining the heat since the cooled water must be pumped back down into the formation. What it means is that each geothermal design is unique and somewhat unpredictable. "Injecting this water in the right place at the right depth is the most critical component of the project, to assure long-term viability of the project." http://www.chenahotsprings.com/geothermal-power/
  46. Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
    archiesteel #100 "Uh, by analyzing it? I mean, that is the logical thing to do. On the other hand, if we were to apply your logic to professional climate deniers like Singer, Lindzen, Watts and McIntyre - who have been shown to be wrong over and over again - then none of them should have *any* credibility left, and you should criticize them as much as you do actual climate scientists." Thats exactly what we are doing here - analysing the science as 'modestly informed' non-expert professionals. I don't rely on Singer, Lindzen, Watts or McIntyre for information - although I have read some of their stuff it is not for some time. In fact I have not looked at WUWT for months. There is more than enough grist to be milled in these threads. It is much more satisfying examining the AGW (via CO2GHG) protagonists arguments and seeing if they are internally consistent and fit with other AGW data. I have never claimed that they had no case - but that the case is more or less exaggerated.
  47. Renewable Baseload Energy
    JMurphy
    Amazing what you can do with cheap labour and a government that decides what laws (especially health and safety ones) can be disregarded for the sake of the party/country. Perhaps you want the UK, USA, etc. to do the same, but this time for the good of the free-market ? Or shall we buy off Russia too, if it's going to be cheaper ?
    If you have some evidence of unsafe practices in the construction of Chinese NPPs then out with it. Otherwise these type of comments belong in the "doubt is our business" bin. Or you could look at the costs of Sth Korean reactors which are only a little higher cost than the Chinese ones in domestic builds. Yes, I think buying NPPs from China may well be a serious possibility with ten years and quite possibly in as little as five years. One of the preferred Chinese designs is the Westinghouse AP-1000 Generation III+ advanced pressurized water reactor which the Chinese have acquired the intellectual property rights to. If you are in the market for NPPs then you could a lot worse than this design.
  48. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @88 The Ville at 20:44 PM on 28 November, 2010 Please do read the law by yourself. It states clearly the vendor has to pay the government, in order for the govt. to guarantee the loan in case of regulation or litigation delaying construction etc. If the issue is under the sponsor's (the plant owner's/vendor's) control, there is _no_ guarantee. Here is a link for your convenience: Energy Policy Act of 2005, section 638 http://www.ne.doe.gov/doclibrary/epact2005.html
  49. Renewable Baseload Energy
    I would like to bring your attention to the following peer reviewed paper which was just published: "Nuclear is the least-cost, low-carbon, baseload power source" http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/11/28/nuclear-is-the-least-cost-low-carbon-baseload-power-source/
  50. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Great post, thanks Dana. There are two seemingly far-fetched solutions that I've been following up for some time. Can anyone tell me how viable or realistic they are? Or are they just a crock? Solar tower - Air is heated by the sun over an area in the ground, then forced to rise convectively through a huge chimney, rotating a turbine on the way up. Compressed air car - compressed air is stored in a tank with very high pressure, then it's released to move a piston motor.

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