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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 105401 to 105450:

  1. What should we do about climate change?
    Now on to Ann (ah, I think Michael Sweet has just got to this too). The idea that an increased supply of non-carbon sourced energy would make carbon sourced energy cheaper is only true under the current subsidies/low taxes and (apparently) zero-liability environment for fossil fuel companies. If we took away their direct tax subsidies, charging them full mineral extraction fees, took away their international protection via the US military and imposed a carbon tax that came anywhere near to covering what should be their liability for the damage their product is causing ... the price of their product would go up a lot, and wouldn't fall much at all when larger supplies of cleaner energy are available.
  2. What should we do about climate change?
    KR @147, I suspect you may have many misunderstandings about electricity supply and especially about wind energy. I can't cover it all here. The BraveNewClimate web site, 'Renewable Limits' tab might be worth a visit. By the way, The Australian National Electricity Market grid has the largest areal extent of any single grid in the world (so I am told). Wind farms are spread over the southern part of this grid. They span an area of 1200 km east-west by 800 km north-south. We commonly have no wind over that whole area for days at a time. One such period lasted about a week recently (May 2010). During that period there were about 65 5-minute periods where the wind generation was negative. That is, the wind farms were drawing more power than they were generating (by up to 4 MW negative).
  3. What should we do about climate change?
    #146, 147: Wind power seems to be more popular: More wind power capacity installed last year [2009] in the EU than any other power technology U.S. wind power capacity soared 39 percent last year [2009] Chinese wind power surpasses US More to the point of this thread, from the Global Wind Energy Council: Wind energy is already making a significant contribution to saving CO2 emissions. The 158GW of global wind capacity in place at the end of 2009 will produce 340 TWh of clean electricity and save 204 million tons of CO2 every year. Are these folks unconcerned by Peter Lang's objections in #141? Or those objections something out of Don Quixote?
  4. What should we do about climate change?
    This is a little late, but the short answer to daisym @69 asking "Why won't government and scientists prepare estimates of global temperature reductions to be expected by replacing SOME of our carbon fuels energy sources with power from windmills and solar panels?" is That's what the different emission scenarios are in the IPCC (and other) projections. They very carefully lay out "this is what we expect if we follow the current path of getting as much power from fossil fuels as possible" ... "this is what we expect if taxes/subsidies push x percent of power generation to non-carbon by y date", etc. So the "why won't" in your question makes the question wrong to begin with. They have.
  5. What should we do about climate change?
    @ hpierce: Those are standard complaints, they have standard answers. Love the patronizing tone, "Get out an atlas...." #1 Riding a bicycle in the winter risks death no worse than cross-country skiing does. I happily ride in 20 degree weather, if it routinely got colder than that, I would just put on clothes. At 20, I wear two layers -- a thin wool undershirt, and a windblock. Any more and I overheat. No idea how low I could go with serious layering. Plan B, is to ride a bike that is enclosed or semi-enclosed -- faster in good weather, more comfortable in bad weather. People who #2 The wide open space has few people in it, so their fuel consumption is less important. Perhaps they keep using cars for quite a while, at least for long-haul trips. Remember, at least 1/3 of the country already lives in places denser than a Dutch town, and that's not counting the sub-50k cities and towns. Looking at Montana (fewer than 1 million people total) I note that 10% live in Billings, which has a density of 3000 per square mile -- cities and towns less dense than that in the Netherlands hit 40% bike ride share. Other Montana cities over the threshold include Great Falls, Missoula, and Helena. #3 On my bike, 50lbs of load allows me to ride no hands. 100lbs is okay on the flats. 200 lbs is the official cargo limit. If I routinely carried more than 100 lbs up hills, I would get an electric assist. Trailers are also an option. #4 Bikes work fine in the dark, and they work fine in the winter. You can buy snow tires, with studs (best ones are from Finland -- this suggests that there are people in other countries who ride in the cold and dark, and survive). Any kid too small to ride their own bike, can ride on the back of mine. I took my daughter to school on the bike of my bike (uphill) yesterday morning. #5 Inaccessibility of a national park is a regulation, not a physical law. People on bikes (in particular, bikes very much like the one I ride every day) have traveled from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego, traversing paths that are physically impossible for any car. A car is most assuredly NOT absolute freedom. Ever been stuck in a traffic jam? Ever had a mechanical failure and had to wait for a tow truck? Ever run out of gas? Ever gotten stuck in the snow/sand/mud? Heck, ever had to look for parking? Bikes suffer very little from these problems; they may be slow, but they go. And when they don't go, you can usually push them along on your own two feet. instead of waiting for assistance. Cars are exceptionally needy vehicles -- you just don't notice this because of their extensive (and often socialized) support infrastructure. And remember, the only thing special about my situation, is that I've put 10,000 miles on a bike in the last four years, and that does help the legs and lungs. I'm 50, well past peak fitness, with a commute distance that is about at the median (my fastest car commute is over the median). Over 100 million people in this country live in density similar to what I ride my bike through on the way to work. The vast majority of those people could do just what I do, if they cared to do it. You should also be careful to avoid thinking too narrowly about what a "bicycle" is -- suppose my example for evaluating the practicality of cars, was a MiniCooper or Smart Car. Bikes span the range from super-light folders, to e-assisted cargo bikes with 4" tires.
  6. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann, If we had a carbon tax it would reduce carbon mining right away and make use of nuclear or renewables more cost effective. One reason fossil fuels are so cheap is because they do not pay for all the damage they do. A carbon tax could charge them for the mess they make. The carbon tax could be adjusted until fossil fuel use was at what was decided is a good level.
  7. What should we do about climate change?
    Dunkerson, #136 I'm not sure this is true. A switchover to nuclear (or renewable) power would certainly stop the ongoing rise of fossil fuel prices... but I don't think it would cause them to reverse course. This isn't just a 'supply and demand' issue after all. Rising fossil fuel prices have been driven by increasing extraction and transportation costs. Neither of those would go down if we were suddenly using less fossil fuel... indeed, they would probably go up. You may be right. Although fossil fuel prices are at least partly controlled by speculation (remember crude oil prices rising steeply in the beginning of 2008). The point is: will we ever reach the stage that alternative energy has become so cheap that part of the fossil fuels will not be mined at all, since it isn’t economically interesting ? That mines will be closed before they are exhausted ? As we see the efforts in Canada to extract oil from tar sands in spite of the enormous amount of energy it costs, it doesn’t seem that way.
  8. Tarcisio José D at 07:02 AM on 30 October 2010
    Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
    The water vapor in the atmosphere plays the role of GHG but also has the job of conductor of heat as is a locomotive pulling a train heating. To solve the problem of global warming we need a mechanism to pierce the layer of GHG taking the heat for the top. This work is carried by water that evaporates from the soil. Unfortunately our soil is impermeable. “What should we do about climate change?” We need to fix the environment's thermostat. The negative feedback for an incoming heat is provided by water vapor. See for yourself on this animation:

  9. What should we do about climate change?
    KR #134, 135 Nothing is "instant". We are, first of all, stuck with some amount of additional warming based upon the climate moving to equilibrium with the CO2 we've already emitted; another 40-60 years worth. And we don't have the gazillion dollars sitting around to replace every power plant, car, truck, ship, train, etc. this year. I understand every change takes time and it wouldn’t be fair to demand that the changes must take place now or not at all. I am not against renewable energy, reducing energy consumption, reducing ecological footprint etc. And I fully understand the need to take action. But I am asking questions as to the actual effect all these measures will have, as all proposed measures to fight climate change are indirect: installing more nuclear power, installing solar/wind power SHOULD theoretically reduce the use of fossil fuel. Will it ? When can we expect to see the first effects, an actual reduction in the worldwide use of fossil fuels ? When will we have the first proof that this approach actually works ? Reducing our ecological footprint SHOULD reduce global energy consumption. But will it ? Or to use my party analogy again –probably to the aggravation of some people- : If a couple of people at the party decide they will not eat the cake, are you sure there will be more cake left at the end of the party ? My experience at parties is different. The cake is gone at the end of the evening, no matter what. I think measures to fight climate change should be targeted at a direct reduction of carbon/CO2 from the carbon cycle (atmosphere, oceans, land) . Because in the long run that is all that matters. The other measures will only slow down global warming, but will not stop it. Your "instant off" calls (my interpretation, mind you) are the kind of thing that make people throw their hands in the air, say "Can't be done!", and go away But on a site like this- skeptical science – We should at least be allowed to ask some skeptical questions ? We musn’t censor ourselves and say: these issues you cannot bring up, these questions you cannot ask.
  10. Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
    Also Richard " they ought to be deducted from the anthro emissions budget. ". Human contribution to GHG gas rise is determined by isotope ratio not budgets (natural CO2 cycle is tricky).
  11. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang - There are a set of requirements for useful large scale wind and solar power, namely: - Average capacity matched to average demand, meaning that peak wind/solar production could be considerably higher, but won't always be dropping below demand levels. - Long distance transmission lines to average regional variation. Long range DC power lines, supplies in areas 100's of miles apart, so somewhere wind is hitting turbines. - Energy storage. You mentioned only hydro; there are also the large battery systems, molten salt systems, reverse hydro using mines, isobaric pressure storage, and so on. Storage is reasonably inexpensive on the scale for minute, even hour time frames (local surges/sags), fairly expensive for day scale, and probably unreasonably expensive for week long power dips. But at the very worst, if storage was not available in sufficient quantities to cover lengthy supply down times, it would be easily sufficient to buffer both ramp-up and ramp-down times of fossil fuel backups. Especially if the power utilities watched the weather, and predicted potential dips prior to them occurring! Expensive? Perhaps - change is always at a price. Avoiding CO2 emissions via wind/solar? Definitely. Your 70% fossil fuel uptime figure seems extremely high; I suspect you're scaling the solar/wind resource capacities at peak power rather than average. And - whenever the fossil fuel system isn't running, we aren't contributing CO2.
  12. What should we do about climate change?
    muoncounter @143 "I can't seem to find any mention of backup generators at any of the Texas windfarms." The fossil fuel generators that are connected to the grid have to be cycled to 'firm' for wind power. When the wind blows, the power from fossil fule generators has to be cut back. Whe the wind power decreaes, the power output from the fossil fule generators has to increase. Where we have sufficient hydro capacity and energy storage, then hydro energy can be saved when the wind blows. This is expensive.
  13. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann @130, “First let’s discuss your proposal to fight climate change” No, those are your words not mine. My proposal is for cutting CO2-e emissions, not fighting climate change. The connection is for others to make. I am also advocating the transmission from fossil fuels to nuclear for many reasons: energy security, cheaper electricity in future to power a world that wants a better life, health and safety, reduced use of resources and others. “Fossil fuel will continue to be used until all reserves have been depleted. Don’t you agree with that assumption?” No. The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones. It finished because we developed better technologies. We have the better technologies now, but for reasons best known to those involved, part of society wants to ban its use. Ann, perhaps it is time for you to reveal your agenda. If it involves trying to get the wealthy nations to make a major lifestyle change, then good luck. That is not a realistic option. It is so far from being realistic there is no point in discussing it. @106 you said “I think it’s admirable that Denmark has such ambitious goals concerning renewable energy, and if they achieve these goals it will be a lesson and an example for many countries.” This statement is wrong and displays a complete misunderstanding of the actual situation with renewable energy in Denmark as pointed out by quokka at #116.
  14. What should we do about climate change?
    Archiesteel @132 “@Peter Lang: "Renewables cannot make any significant contribution now or for a very long time, if ever." That is a political statement, not a scientific one. It's hard not to think you don't have a personal stake in Nuclear Power when you make such sweeping declarations. I do not have any personal stake in nuclear power. But I have crunched the numbers. I reiterate the statement I made and you quoted. It is the unfounded belief and advocacy of renewables that is political. A details proposal for making Australia’s energy emissions free by 2020 using renewable energy was published recently. Zero carbon Australia – Stationary energy plan - Critique For some reason all the effort is in advocating renewables and opposing nuclear. This is irrational. Non-hydro renewables provide about 1% of our energy and cannot provide much more because of their intermittent nature and not viable storage. Nuclear can directly replace fossil fuel electricity generation. Nuclear has a far lower footprint and mentioned in an earlier post. It is the advocacy of renewable energy and the opposition to nuclear that I find is the political movement. Those behind the movement are the same ones that got us into so much trouble so many times before, including setting back by at least 40 years the transition from fossil fuels to emissions free energy
  15. What should we do about climate change?
    #141: "not much if any because of the extra emissions from the fossil fuel back up generators" I can't seem to find any mention of backup generators at any of the Texas windfarms. I'm not doubting your numbers, but why is there no mention of what would have to be 9.4 GW backup generator capacity?
  16. What should we do about climate change?
    dr2chase @110. Get out an atlas and study the US and Canada which are really big countries. Once out the cities the land opens up and goes on forever and there are large distances between small cities, towns, and villages in the rural areas. Much of The US and Canada is very cold in the wintertime and riding a bicycle is risking sure death. BTW, how much food can you carry on bicycle? There are lots of national and state parks which can only be accessed by a car or truck. How do you get the kids to hockey practice at 5 AM in the wintertime? Or other sporting events in various cities? About every other vehicle on the interstate highways out of the cities is a freight truck. In Canada there are freight trains coming into Vancouver about every 30 minutes bringing bulk commodities suchas grain, sulfur, metalurgical coal, potash, shipping containers, chemicals for export to eastern countries. The reason people like their cars is quite simple: A car is absolute freedom and nothing is ever going to change that. When was freedom day for you?
  17. What should we do about climate change?
    Daisym @103 How much CO2 emissions are avoided by wind generation? The answer is not much if any because of the extra emissions from the fossil fuel back up generators. Here is a short explanation. Look at the links above for more and for the numbers. 1. The answer is complicated if looked at in detail. It changes as the penetration of wind power increases. The proper way to do such analyses requires a Loss of Load Probability analysis. However, that is way beyond what we can do here. So lets simplify: 2. Assume we have a grid who’s generation capacity is comprised of wind and gas only 3. Peak demand is 1GW (we’ll reserve the reserve capacity margin for now) 4. Average annual capacity factor for wind is 30% 5. High wind season is 6 months long and average capacity factor is 40% 6. Low wind season is 6 months long and average capacity factor is 20% 7. Wind power can drop at up to 20% of installed capacity per hour (over a large area of wind farms). look at the wind farm performance charts for August (Google ‘windfarmperformance’) 8. We need roughly 1 GW of gas capacity to back up for 1 GW of wind capacity (we can argue about the details of that statement later). So we need the capital investment for 1GW of wind (about $2.9 billion on current Australian costs, ref ABARE, 2010) plus about 1GW of gas turbines (about $1 billion), plus grid enhancements (about $1 billion). 9. If gas generators could back up for wind power with no efficiency penalty, gas would provide roughly 70% of the energy. 10. To get the least emissions from the gas generating system we need to use the higher efficiency combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT). But they cannot start and stop as quickly as the open cycle gas turbines (OCGT). So we need a mix of both. Ideally, during the low wind period, we’d have about 800MW of CCGT. During the high wind period we’d have mainly OCGT. However, we need more OCGT to be able to follow wind changes. It happens that the mix requires more installed capacity than just OCGT alone. 11. Having wind in the system requires us to have more OCGT (higher emissions) than if we did not have wind. So this is one reason the emissions are higher than the wind industry would have you believe 12. Another reason is that because wind power can drop so quickly, and the operators do not know when it is going to occur or how far or how fast the power drop from the wind farms might be, they have to be conservative and keep more gas turbines on standby, on spinning reserve and part loaded than they would if there was no wind power in the system. 13. When a gas turbines is running part loaded, it is less efficient and consumes more gas (emits more CO2) than when it is fully loaded. The Ken Hawkins Calculator explains all this very well) 14. Gas turbines consume fuel (and emit CO2) when starting and stopping. More starts and stops are required when backing up for wind than if there is no wind in the system. 15. When you put it all together, the total emissions from the back up generators with wind power are little different than if there was no wind power. With coal in the mix, and forcing them to cycle as we are doing in Australia causes the emissions to be even higher than with a gas only back-up system. 16 Three studies have been conducted where the actual fuel used was measured. These studies were conducted in Netherlands, Colorado and Texas. The studies have been compared with the calculator output and show the calculator output is good. The references are provided in the link I provided above. Hope this provides some background. If you want more on this, can I encourage you to read the material I’ve linked because it is not easy to write it all, and keep every detail correct, in a blog post.
  18. What should we do about climate change?
    Daisym @103 "Government is heavily subsidizing wind and solar, but what effect will use of wind and solar have on global temperature? Is this giving us enough "bang for the buck"? Will it stop the increase in global temperature, or merely slow it down? We're not being told. I doubt that anyone has done the calculations, else why haven't we been told?" The calculations have been done. Wind power avoids little if any GHG emisisons. The cost per tonne CO2 avoided is very high. Cost and quantity of greenhouse gas emissions avoided by wind generation Emissions cuts realities
  19. It's cooling
    This page is correct that this is the best overall way to measure the Earth's heat, but in terms of the global warming discussion this argument is disingenuous. The IPCC sets the terms for the discussion. It is their argument that must be validated or disproven. The skeptics are simply responding to them. For example, when the IPCC makes a statement such as, "current temperatures are probably warmer than any other time in 1,000 years," or "The current rate of warming is unprecedented," this is based on a comparison with historic surface temperatures. According to the NAS even surface temperatures from proxies like tree rings are not that reliable earlier than about 500 years ago. But there is no way at all to get total ice volume or temps from specific layers of the ocean from the medieval warm period or earlier. For all we know, if we take all this into account, we might not be warming that much at all right now compared to 1,000 years ago. Skeptics talk in terms of surface temperatures because that is how the IPCC tends to talk. To respond to the skeptics with this argument is comparing apples to oranges.
    Moderator Response: This topic is addressed on the page Hockey stick is broken.
  20. It's not bad
    @ DSL (70) Don't blame John for that one. The, um, moderator was trying to keep from having to delete archiesteel's comments and to provide a teaching moment at the same time. I'm sure the moderator would appreciate it if you can think of a more appropriate way to have handled it.. And I'm sure the same mod appreciates you taking 'the road to Loch Lomond' (the high road). ;)
  21. It's not bad
    Oh, transjasmine, where art thou? You said, on an inappropriate thread, that the proper argument was whether or not CO2 was dangerous, and that where humans are has nothing to do with anything. Briefly: there's a very good chance that warming will decrease global land ice and cause thermal expansion of the world's oceans. The resulting sea level rises would then force significant numbers of people away from their coastal homes. In some cases, the rise may cause significant migrations of people over national borders. Nationalist attitudes in target countries will hinder this migration and intensify the migratory pressure. Forced migration will be in addition to the pressure of migration by choice, as people with means will choose to move northward to avoid the longer, hotter summers. John, "bait" is a pretty strong word for this situation. That's a pretty tired worm, and, as a fish, I'm to the point where I don't have the heart to bite this one even gently.
  22. The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    Ken: It appears to me that you do not understand the terms in the equation you are trying to use. I have not loked at this equation carefully before and have only your description to go on. It seems to me that the equation follows the heat and not the temperature. You calculate the change due to the measured increase in temperature as 2.8 w/m2. The 2.1 w/m2 is the measured increase in water backradiation and lowered surface albeido. The other atmospheric forcings are estimated at 1.6 w/m2. It adds up to a net forcing of 0.9 w/m2. Your interpretation of no insulating effect of the atmosphere seems to me to disregard the water backradiation and the other forcings. Trenberth has separated the insulation effect from the radiation effect for the purposes of calculation. It appears to me that your calculation confirms Trenberths. You need to show that Trenberths 2.1 w/m2 or the 1.6 w/m2 are in error to show that heat is not accumulating. Since they have large error bars (especially the other forcings) they might be higher or lower. Since the S-B cooling rises with the 4th power it will ultimately limit the temperature rise. The rise depends on how much CO2 is added to the atmosphere.
  23. Tarcisio José D at 02:18 AM on 30 October 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Mr. Moderator. Look to the quetion. What should we do about climate change? And look to my answer. It's pertinet.
    Moderator Response: Yes, which is why I did not delete it. But your contention that water vapor is the control knob, and that we can control it directly, are incorrect; further discussion of the first of those issues belongs on the other thread.
  24. The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    KR #113 Yes, I have making the same assumption as Dr Trenberth. ie. the surface temperature increase is the same as the increase in Earth's radiating temperature. The approx numbers are: Date / Temp Increase / S-B Cooling Forcing (W/sq.m) 1750 / 0.0 / 0.0 1800 / 0.0 / 0.0 1850 / 0.03 / -0.11 1900 / 0.03 / -0.11 1950 / 0.15 / -0.57 1975 / 0.25 / -0.94 2000 / 0.72 / -2.70 2005 / 0.75 / -2.80 It could be done in smaller increments but the point is that S-B cooling is rising rapidly with the 4th power.
  25. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Great title, and great explanation, Rob! Much ado about nothing, like the Himalayan Glacier typo. The Yooper
  26. Tarcisio José D at 01:58 AM on 30 October 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Ann #130 So. My conclusion: A transition to nuclear energy will not stop climate change. That is rigth. “What should we do about climate change?” We need to fix the environment's thermostat. The negative feedback for an incoming heat is provided by water vapor. See for yourself on this animation:


    Moderator Response: The role of water vapor is the subject of a different thread. Search for "water vapor " in the Search field at the top left.
  27. What should we do about climate change?
    @Ann - I hesitate to dive into what is looking more like a fight than a discussion, but... An 80% reduction in CO2 emissions is what I understand is the goal. Not 100%. An 80% reduction means that we still, ultimately, drill all the oil, but it takes five times longer. And, oil drilling is expensive; if we make conservation and non-fossil alternatives cheap enough, the lower price of oil will not justify aggressive drilling. It's not a case of wave-a-wand and it happens; as time goes by, the remaining oil will be more and more expensive to extract, and the sooner we can put cheap alternatives on the market, the sooner (reduced) price pressure will reduce the drilling rate. Economic incentives (carrots and sticks) probably help accelerate this, but there is a price for oil, relative to alternatives, that will cut its consumption by 80%. I'm agnostic about the whole renewables-vs-nukes argument; the thorium reactors sound good, but we've heard too-cheap-to-meter before (I assume we are about as over-optimistic as we ever were). I assume that we need an improved grid -- if we add nukes, certainly in the beginning we're going to be happier siting them far from population centers, till we can demonstrate that real live thorium plants really are safe and boring. Or, if we add wind/tidal/hydro/solar, we want a big grid to give us geographical diversity. Either way, a grid is helpful, and a grid is technology that we understand now.
  28. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Come on, transjasmine, you still haven't put forward anything scientific, or anything based on any form of original scientific evidence, to argue against the topic of this thread. Do you have anything except opinion ? If not, what's the point ?
  29. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann #125: "As the demand for fossil fuel plummets (this is part of YOUR assumption, not mine), fossil fuel prices will collapse. Nuclear energy will have to remain competitive with ever lowering fossil fuel prices." I'm not sure this is true. A switchover to nuclear (or renewable) power would certainly stop the ongoing rise of fossil fuel prices... but I don't think it would cause them to reverse course. This isn't just a 'supply and demand' issue after all. Rising fossil fuel prices have been driven by increasing extraction and transportation costs. Neither of those would go down if we were suddenly using less fossil fuel... indeed, they would probably go up. Consider Hawaii for instance. Currently they get most of their electricity from oil... which is less expensive to ship that far than coal or natural gas. If they switch over to wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, and/or the other renewable energy sources they have in ridiculous abundance there is no way that 'oil power' is going to make a comeback. Even if it suddenly became 'free' to extract and process and oil company's decided to sell for zero profit... it would still cost just as much to ship across the ocean. We might see a change to fossil fuels being used primarily near where they are extracted... since that kind of local usage might well cost less than nuclear/renewable would in the same area. However, that would be on a much smaller scale than current fossil fuel usage.
  30. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Sorry for the snappy response, please ignore the second part of my comment. @tj: I did explain. If we end up with forced mass migrations, it's going to be a lot more complicated today (because of borders, private property laws and civilization in general) than it would have been 10,000 years ago when people could migrate more freely.
  31. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    i wasnt bating anybody, i was expressing my opinion based on the comments DSL made, if i have misunderstood those comments i'm sorry but please do explain
    Moderator Response: Feel free to disagree with others here, certainly. Inputs are valued, but please refrain from using inflammatory terminology like "Globalist" or saying "make sure _______'s A** is clean before you put your head up it". That is being very inflammatory and in violation of the Comments Policy. Keep it clean and comments won't get deleted unless they are also off-topic.
  32. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann - I guess what I'm trying to say is that we're stuck with some warming; the effort now goes into limiting that, mitigating/minimizing the costs and problems we're going to face as a result, and trying to avoid critical points such as permafrost CO2 release and clathrate venting that would double the effects. We can't 'turn off' global warming - a planet ain't going to stop on a dime. That's going to cost us - but we can avoid making matters worse. And perhaps, a century or three from now, CO2 levels may decrease.
  33. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann - Nothing is "instant". We are, first of all, stuck with some amount of additional warming based upon the climate moving to equilibrium with the CO2 we've already emitted; another 40-60 years worth. And we don't have the gazillion dollars sitting around to replace every power plant, car, truck, ship, train, etc. this year. But every bit of change will help. Making nuclear more affordable than coal power plants, encouraging solar/wind power development, even increasing the average mileage of autos en route to making electric or renewable fuel cell cars practical - every bit is a step in the process. Your "instant off" calls (my interpretation, mind you) are the kind of thing that make people throw their hands in the air, say "Can't be done!", and go away. I think it's important to take all available paths that move us away from CO2 accumulation as quickly as possible - including popular support, technology development, government subsidies, regulations, permit actions (for building new renewable power generation), etc. But it will take some time.
  34. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    Oops - sorry - didn't put in a link to the original... link to "information is beautiful" page
  35. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    @tj: "what the heck do national borders and private property have to do with anything." Mass migrations due to climate change will certainly cause problems with national borders and private property issues. "DSL now to me you just sound like a globalist" And you sound like a troll.
    Moderator Response: Please take the high road and not respond in kind to the baiting. Your contributions here have more value if they don't end up in the Deleted Comments bin.
  36. What should we do about climate change?
    @muoncounter #129 #123: "Are you sure the cake is not going to be eaten ?" muon:I'll bite on the cake/carrot analogy. Everyone eats the cake in preference to the carrots. Tastes good, is in plentiful supply. Unfortunately, this cake was made with flour derived from beans - and you know the result of that. Nobody notices that this is a problem for a while, until the room becomes unpleasant. Want more cake now? Nice extension to my analogy ... Yup, bring on the cake. I don't care if other people suffocate. Isn't that exactly how people react nowadays ? They know the rise in CO2 may be catastrophic in the end, but it doesn't stop them (including me, I must admit) from driving their cars, using electricity etc. "even in the most optimistic scenario, deploying nuclear power (or green power) will slow down, but not stop global warming." muon: What's wrong with that? I was in the assumption we want to stop global warming. Slowing down global warming may have a very limited use. It will buy us more time to come up with real solutions. But it is dangerous if people start thinking alternative energy is the definite answer to the problem. Especially when you consider that there are far more valuable uses for petrochemicals than their heat content. We are in no position to turn down alternative energy sources based on current thinking. Look what kind of mess our current thinking has put us in! I don't want to turn down alternative energy sources. They will be urgently needed, if only to overcome peak oil. I want to raise the question: Will the worldwide deployment of nuclear or green energy stop climate change ? Is it the definite answer to the problem ? Until now I heard nothing that convinced me this would be the case.
  37. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    DSL now to me you just sound like a globalist, what the heck do national borders and private property have to do with anything. guess next you will be saying humans are a cancer lets get to reducing the population! i'm sure you have read sustainable development
    Moderator Response: Please take the high road and refrain from baiting others with loaded terminology. Your contributions here will have more value if they don't end up in the Deleted Comments bin.
  38. Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
    @RSVP: "This is interesting, because it takes 1.5E23 Joules to raise the air temperature 30 degrees, which is ten times the amount of energy actually coming from the Sun." Good thing the sun is emitting this energy constantly, huh? It's not clear what you're trying to do, here, RSVP, but if you're trying to disprove the Greenhouse effect you're wasting your time. The fact is you haven't demonstrated that waste heat is anything more than about 1% of GHG forcings. You lost that debate. Time to move on.
  39. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 00:31 AM on 30 October 2010
    The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    Energy is not always moves from warmer to colder places because there are different forms of energy in space and time leading to the advantage of the accumulation of heat over its dissipation - entropy - it is "cliché" but "cliché" is and (here), significantly. Where does most of the "imbalance" of energy in the atmosphere of the Earth (or Earth is more heated, and loses less energy - the primary side effect of the discussion here) the interesting tries to explain: „Earth and Ocean Science”- A 1st order global energy model based on observed TOA radiant flux and ocean and atmosphere heat data - cloud changes in the satellite era. Comparing the changes in OLR and RSW (2000 - 2010), comes to the conclusion that far outweighs "heating" (decreasing RSW) ocean (accumulating heat) by the SW, it’s have advantage over retention of heat (decreasing OLR) through the atmosphere: “CERES data since 2000 clearly show SW changes – this drove the ocean heat content increase measured in ARGO. Most of recent warming is driven by changes in reflected SW. SW changes imply changes in global cloud cover over the period.” Regarding this point: 'enhanced greenhouse effect of CO2GHG interacting with Water Vapour', again had to go to the discussion of the reaction - sensitivity, of the system: Earth - the atmosphere. An interesting critique of messages posted on the SkS on this topic is here.
  40. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: "Renewables cannot make any significant contribution now or for a very long time, if ever." That is a political statement, not a scientific one. It's hard not to think you don't have a personal stake in Nuclear Power when you make such sweeping declarations. Right now, German citizens are generating *too much* solar power in peak insolation periods, and it risks damaging their power grid (the proposed solution is a more flexible European grid). I think Nuclear is part of the equation, but your aggressive opposition to renewable is both unfounded and suspect.
  41. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    whether there were people or not is irrelevant, the issue here is c02 is causing dangerous climate change, that's the whole point of this site correct? dangerous climate change is happening and c02 is the catalyst. but ok, i've looked for the actual study and i cant find it so i'll give a link to a video in which the participants explain or w/e http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zS0SWVIRaZ8&p=4874B5A951DA8DA4&index=5&playnext=5
    Moderator Response: The presence of people who will be affected indeed is relevant to this particular page on this site. It is relevant also to the page you can find by typing "It's Not Bad" into the Search field at the top left of this page.
  42. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    Oops - sorry - didn't put in a link to the original... link to "information is beautiful" page
  43. What should we do about climate change?
    Re: Daniel, I expressed myself rather strongly, on purpose, to get a reaction and start a discussion. People take too much for granted that either renewable energy or nuclear energy is going to save the planet, and this complacency is dangerous. The danger is that even dedicated people, who are genuinely concerned about the future of our planet start thinking it suffices to switch to green energy and reduce their ecological footprint. I just don’t like the current boy’s scouts mentality surrounding all actions to fight climate change. E.g. “if we all do our best, we can avert the danger”. The battle against climate change will either be won or lost. We shouldn’t do our best. We should do whatever it takes to avert the danger. To me that means: controlling the amount of carbon that is actually entering the carbon cycle. Via carbon capture and sequestration, artificial trees, reforestation. Carbon trading is an essential part of this solution.
  44. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/climate-change-deniers-vs-the-consensus/ Have you seen this image from information is beautiful? Although obviously nowhere near as comprehensive as your website, it still might be quite useful I feel?
  45. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    transjasmine, instead of just posting what you believe to be true, why not post some links to some evidence of the great benefit of high CO2 to today's agriculture and today's world full of people. You do realise that in the past, there were less/no people at various times - especially when CO2 was much higher ? Basically, as usual, you need to read more here and here.
  46. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Transjasmine, who said the world was going to end? When CO2 levels were 18 times higher, and the oceans were 70-120 feet higher, were humans around--in particular, 7 billion humans with their rigid national borders, provincialism and racism, private property system, and survival dependent on a fragile global economic system? If we were having this discussion 10,000 years ago, I'd say, "global warming? so what? we'll migrate." You're not being very critical. Think about the details. Think about what a mere one foot sea level rise would do to the world in its current state. Think also about an increasingly acid ocean, as all that CO2 begins to saturate it. It doesn't mean that you won't be able to go swimming. It means that a large chunk of the world's food supply is going downhill. No, the world's not going to end. It's going to keep on spinning.
  47. What should we do about climate change?
    Hi Peter, Now, how to answer this… I don’t want to raise any more misunderstandings. First let’s discuss your proposal to fight climate change. I don’t doubt that fossil fuel power plants can be replaced by nuclear power plants, and that this will cut CO2 emissions for electricity generation. But it also mean more fossil fuel will become available for other purposes (rule of supply and demand). If less fossil fuel is burned in power plants, more will be used for vehicles like airplanes, ships, etc. Fossil fuel will continue to be used until all reserves have been depleted. Don’t you agree with that assumption? So, the amount of CO2 that will end up in the atmosphere eventually is not at all dependent on the amount of green or nuclear power we deploy. It can be directly deduced from the level of atmospheric CO2 today + the amount of carbon that is currently stored underground, in the shape of fossil fuel. (OK, and taking into account aborption of CO2 by oceans, plants, rocks etc.) So. My conclusion: A transition to nuclear energy will not stop climate change. You might even conclude that nuclear energy and green energy will actually worsen climate change. How’s that ? Scenario 1: If most of the power plants remain fossil fuel based, techniques can be deployed to capture and sequester the produced CO2. These techniques are not used yet, but at least it is a possibility. Scenario 2: If however most of the fossil fuel power plants are replaced by nuclear power plants or renewables, the fossil fuel that would be burned in a power plant will be used for vehicles. There will be no way to capture the CO2 produced by these vehicles. Result: Scenario 2 results eventually in a higher atmospheric CO2 level than scenario 1. Prove me wrong. As for my proposal to fight climate change, I don’t want to mix this up in the current discussion. Anyway, I am trying to prove that solution A is invalid. It is irrelevant to the discussion whether a completely different solution B is valid or not.
  48. What should we do about climate change?
    #123: "Are you sure the cake is not going to be eaten ?" I'll bite on the cake/carrot analogy. Everyone eats the cake in preference to the carrots. Tastes good, is in plentiful supply. Unfortunately, this cake was made with flour derived from beans - and you know the result of that. Nobody notices that this is a problem for a while, until the room becomes unpleasant. Want more cake now? "even in the most optimistic scenario, deploying nuclear power (or green power) will slow down, but not stop global warming." What's wrong with that? Especially when you consider that there are far more valuable uses for petrochemicals than their heat content. We are in no position to turn down alternative energy sources based on current thinking. Look what kind of mess our current thinking has put us in!
  49. What should we do about climate change?
    @KR - My assumption is that we have perfectly good bike lanes, it's just that they're full of cars right now. For many cities and towns, that's enough of a change. For others, distance is an issue, and things get more complicated.
  50. Al Gore got it wrong
    Re: transjasmine (14) Your comment was deemed in violation of the Comments Policy. Insinuations are troublesome. Sticking to reference-able facts is best. The Yooper

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