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Comments 106501 to 106550:

  1. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Murray et al 2010 I've only access to the abstract, but it suggests icesheet-ocean interactions are the primary control on the rate of ice discharge in SE Greenland glaciers. Hardly a startling revelation.
  2. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    16.Lazarus I think you're referring to the 2010 paper by Wu et al in Nature Geoscience. Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment 15 AUGUST 2010 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO938 It's not referred to in the Arctic Report Card. Neither is Murray et al 2010 Ocean regulation hypothesis for glacier dynamics in southeast Greenland and implications for ice sheet mass changes JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, F03026, doi:10.1029/2009JF001522, which suggest alternative explanations for de-glaciation in SE Greenland. John is it possible that the information is "mostly disturbing" and David Horton finds things terrifying because this report card is biassed in presenting such data? The attempted link between AGW and the severe winter in Europe and the US last year seems particularly shameful.
  3. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Lazarus @ 16 - Wu 2010 employ a novel technique, using (sparse) GPS data to calculate for glacio-isostatic uplift. No doubt it will take time for the scientific community to ascertain it's value/accuracy, but it is at odds with estimates using other methods. Going out on a limb here, Wahr and Velicogna, were authors of earlier GRACE studies using the GIA model estimates, so I doubt they've employed WU's methods. There is an upcoming post on the topic.
  4. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    gpwayne #11: "Focussing on such a short period seems to compound the problem, and does rather contradict our oft-repeated claim that only trends are valid, not short term data." The length of time needed to determine a valid trend increases as the amount of 'noise' in the data does. If you look at the Mauna Loa CO2 data you've got a small annual cycle and a very smooth upward trend which can be clearly seen from just a few years' data (though we happen to have decades of confirmation). Temperature records on the other hand bounce all over the place and thus require much longer periods to determine a trend. The Greenland mass loss data seems to be somewhere in the middle... there is some noise, but note that every annual peak and every annual low is lower than the previous year. The 'noise' isn't great enough to ever 'break' the downward trend... just providing fluctuations around it. That is, if anything, a much clearer picture than we get from the noisier data sets... even when we have more data for them.
  5. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    gpwayne: "I'm sure this graph would be less ambiguous - and more compelling - if the average was calculated like all trends, from a 30 year period." Isn't that a bit tricky if you only have 8 years of data? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_Recovery_and_Climate_Experiment Launch date: March 17, 2002 To me what's compelling about this graph is how clean the data is: how well it follows the quadratic fit with the annual variation. The red line is a quadratic fit, isn't it? What period was it fitted over?
  6. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Wasn't there a problem with GRACE and rebound giving inaccurate readings? Has this been sorted and accounted for in this Report card?
  7. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Climate Sanity has a post that should help visualise what it probably all means in terms of volume and sea levels. Conversion factors for ice and water mass and volume
  8. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    beam me up scotty. Since Jim Kirk and the Enterprise aren't streaking across the galaxy on a resue mission - and lets face it, there is only so much you can do by reconfiguring the deflector dish AGAIN. So, yep. Its up to us. So: "Ok, tell us what I must do" Convince Others. Of the reality, Severity and above all the Urgency. Individually we can do nothing, only when we all act together. If you were discussing what you could do to solve World Poverty the answer is that you individually could. For one person. You could lift another person out of poverty. Just not everyone. But your individual actions alone could solve the problem for another person. With AGW, you can't solve the problem for one person. Either it is solved for everyone, or it is not solved. So individual action counts for little when it is only a few individuals. So the most useful thing anyone can do is be part of arguing the case. The case for the mobilisation of Humanity against the greatest crisi in Human History. This may truely be a situation where the Pen IS mightier than the Sword. Or the Dollar, Or the Solar Panel on your roof. This is about mobilising Humanity. Everything else is a well intentioned sideshow.
  9. What should we do about climate change?
    #233 archiesteel "Oh, and I'm not going to grace Brave New Climate with hits". That's your loss really. RealClimate (Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann et al) have no problem linking to BNC. It's run by Prof Barry Brook - Director of Climate Science, University of Adelaide. Sites such as SkepticalScience and RealClimate have done an absolutely invaluable service in increasing public understanding of climate and in particular SkepticalScience is the go to place for dealing with denialist nonsense that is forever mutating into new forms. But unfortunately, while there is a growing public knowledge of climate, confusion abounds around issues of energy and climate and the economics and engineering thereof. This reflects itself in public debate. How can policy makers get it right when those most concerned about the urgency of GHG mitigation themselves are all over the place? Barry Brook's aim is to promote critical thinking about sustainable energy. BTW, the latest piece on BNC is by animal liberationist Geoff Russell about the obstacles posed for reforestation by increasing meat consumption world wide. Geoff also supports nuclear power. How's that for confronting a few stereotypes?
  10. beam me up scotty at 18:15 PM on 1 November 2010
    Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Where are the heros that will save the world? Who? Us? Ok, tell us what I must do!
  11. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    @gpwayne: I don't expect to see all that many outcomes of AGW myself - probably another 60-odd years to go for me, barring any major medical advances (although I have a friend who used said he "fully expects lifespans to be extended into the centuries range soon", and decided to go on a major health & fitness program to make sure he was around to see it!). That aside, though, if things proceed as the best science suggests, then by 2060 we'll be seeing some pretty amazing things happening. What my baby daughter will get to see in her lifetime will, of course, be a different question entirely! Going by the info in this and other posts, Greenland will be melting / shedding ice for a *long* time to come. But with a few more decades of data, it might become *very* difficult to deny it's happening. We might also see some more dramatic happenings in West Antarctica, and who knows what sort of weather we'll have. Interesting times ahead...
  12. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    On the subject of the anomaly zero point, surely the problem occurs because the average is calculated from such a short period? I'm sure this graph would be less ambiguous - and more compelling - if the average was calculated like all trends, from a 30 year period. Focussing on such a short period seems to compound the problem, and does rather contradict our oft-repeated claim that only trends are valid, not short term data. Still bloody terrifying though. There are not many reasons to be glad I'm nearly 60, but contemplating the outcomes of AGW I'm not going to see (because they will be beyond my personal 'event horizon') is actually one of them!
  13. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    great post!
  14. What should we do about climate change?
    By the way, I will not respond directly to you until you say whether or not you agree with AGW theory. I'm starting you're only trying to recuperate the concern people have with CO2 to make your industry more appealing.
  15. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: did I say it was the solution to our energy supply? No, I didn't. Why should I trust anything you say when you put words in people's mouth? As for being "so silly it's not worth discussing it," that's just a cop-out and you know it. The fact is that, right now, Germany's power grid is being put under stress by such independent producers. Is this sufficient for our energy needs? Of course not. We need a mixed solution: large-scale and decentralized solar/wind power production, hydro-electrical *and* nuclear. Also, small-scale independent producers can benefit from this - why would you prevent the little guy from doing his part *and* benefiting from it at the same time? Because it means less money for Big Nuclear? It's quite clear you have a pro-nuclear agenda. You've made that abundantly clear through your repetitively arrogant posts. You've also proved to all of us here that you're a *terrible* salesman for nuclear. Oh, and I'm not going to grace Brave New Climate with hits. I would have, but you've completely turned me off by using them as your primary source over and over again. As I said, you make a very poor spokesperson for nuclear. I truly hope you're not an industry shill, because if you are someone is not getting his/her money's worth. "It is impossible to explain to people with strong beliefs" I don't have strong beliefs. In fact, as I've repeatedly stated, I'm in favor of Nuclear being part of a mixed solution. That, however, does not fit into your "only nuclear" propaganda, and so you are now trying to discredit me and ridicule my position.
  16. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    I presume the reason for using the average as the base level is that if you just compute change from the starting year it could, and would, be argued, that the first year just happened to be an abnormally high (in this case) year. However given the smooth shape of this anomaly graph it is clear that there was nothing abnormal about 2002, as it turned out, and that therefore you could switch to making it the zero level. Or am I misunderstanding something statistical?
  17. What should we do about climate change?
    archiesteel, The reason I don't bother answering your question about private individuals selling power to the grid and thinking that that is a solution to our energy supply problems is because it is so silly it is not worth trying to discuss it. If you want to know why, go to Brave New Climate and find out. Or have a go at crunching the numbers yourself. It is impossible to explain to people with strong beliefs but no understanding of any of the fundamentsla od energy generation, transmission, distribution, costs, financing and importantly no sense of proportion.
  18. Stephen Baines at 15:05 PM on 1 November 2010
    Hockey stick or hockey league?
    It may help if Boofy realizes that many of the predicted patterns of climate change resulting from antorpogenic CO2 were made well before they were observed, or looked for. That's what scaddenp means when he refers to "validation" of theory. The consistency with which theoretical predictions have been borne out by observation is what underlies the current scientific consensus. It's not based on a simple appeal to correlation. All that said, a strong correlation can be very useful scientifically.
  19. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Seconding Doug H's comment; the canary is dying and we're still digging. Related material: Khan, S. A., J. Wahr, M. Bevis, I. Velicogna, and E. Kendrick (2010), Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06501, doi:10.1029/2010GL042460. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2010/2010GL042460.shtml (pay wall) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100323161819.htm I know, clunky link usage, but in this case the URL identifies the source and that seems significant to me in this case.
  20. What should we do about climate change?
    @gallopingcamel: "I am a sucker for all kinds of de-centralized energy efficient technologies." That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about private individuals producing electricity through renewables, and selling the excess production to power companies. Please explain to me how I can do this with nuclear.
  21. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: "You have revealed you do not have the most basic understanding of what 'risk' means. I've pointed you to What is Risk? A simple explanation about five times so far and it is clear than you and others either haven't even bothered to read it or you haven't understood it." You didn't point me to that a single time (you did point CBDunkerson and possibly others to it, but I don't have time to read all the messages). Considering that you yourself have chosen not to respond to some of my arguments (such as the ability for individuals to produce and sell surplus solar/wind energy to power companies), I don't see why I should respond to arguments you have used in discussion with others. The fact you are wrong on something that simple (which link you've given to who) makes me question why we should trust you on more complex matters. In any case, as far as risk goes: an environmental catastrophe such as Chernobyl is not possible with Wind or Solar power. Furthermore, why do you insiste on gas generators as backup for wind/solar? Why not a nuclear solution for that as well? Again, I don't think any of us are against use of nuclear power. What we're objecting to is your "nothing but nuclear" approach. It's hard to have a rational conversation with someone who is so clearly biased. Also, for the record, can you state whether or not you agree with AGW theory? The fact you won't also makes your whole intervention suspect.
  22. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    The scariest feature of the Grace rate plots is that the level of the Baffin, Newfoundland and Greenland seas have been dropping over the past 9 years. However, if we assume that the rate contours are artifically extended into these seas by the contour software and should really be zeroed at the coastline, then it appears that the rate of loss in southeast Greenland has slowed/dropped by at least 3 cm/yr while the rated has increased by about 4cm/yr in the west. Pretty poor/confusing data plot!
  23. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Can we quantify what this means for likely sea level rise? My understanding was that any Greenland melt was expected to take several hundred years; how does this rate compare?
  24. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    If the sewage pumps stop +6m isn't enough even today, the backpressure from the ocean waves can reach pretty high. One way to show this kind of data would be to title it:'Greenland mass change 2002-2010', and set the zero at the beginning of the measurement period. It's commonly done thus in faunistics. If the direction of the change is the only thing needed to show there's no need to compute the average, shortly. And I see Bern already said this.
  25. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    In response to the graph issue - perhaps the clearer option for general consumption would be to graph "Ice mass change since 2002". That way, the zero would be at the top, and it should be clear that the change has been overwhelmingly negative.
  26. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Why do we have this correlation / causation argument all the time. Causation always, always involves correlation. But correlation is a weird kind of tree - only some fruit is causation, the rest of the crop is just the human propensity to see patterns.
  27. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Boofy - no. The correlation of temperature with the known forcings is a prediction of climate theory. The "hockey stick"s are a form of validation - one of many.
  28. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    You seem to be confusing correlation and cause and effect.
    Response: Comparing hockey sticks are an example of correlation. But cause and effect are demonstrated by the many other human fingerprints. Satellite measurements of infrared radiation (commonly known as heat) being trapped at CO2 wavelengths is evidence of causation. Surface measurements of increased downward infrared radiation at CO2 wavelengths provide additional confirmation of causation. A cooling stratosphere coupled with a warming troposphere are also signatures of greenhouse warming. The falling diurnal cycle, falling annual cycle, shrinking thermosphere and rising tropopause are all further pieces that build a complete, consisten picture.

    The lesson here is that to properly understand climate, you need to consider the full body of evidence as a whole. Don't get hung up on a single bit of data like the hockey stick. That's just one piece of the puzzle amongst the many lines of evidence for human caused global warming.
  29. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    The color-coded map is indeed nightmarish, and not just because it's still Halloween (at least here in the US). I wish that when the mass loss graph was drawn it didn't have the zero line/average indicated that way, though. I've had trouble in showing this to people and watching them make the mistake that John warns people about in the caption. I think it might be better to label the Y axis with 0 at the top, and add a blue line at the average, say.
    Response: I've had to explain that graph so many times to confused readers, I decided to get proactive and explain it in the caption this time. I don't like using the term 'anomaly' as it's a scientific term that has little meaning to the average person. But when I use change or variation, it seems to create even more confusion so I opted for the technically more precise but more opaque anomaly.
  30. gallopingcamel at 12:35 PM on 1 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Ann, It goes against the grain to support France but when it comes to CO2 policy they are being unfairly treated. Take a look at this link: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/10/25/2060-nuclear-scenarios-p4/ The comments by Tom Blees address some of your concerns and explain why France is not getting any credit for their achievements in reducing CO2 emissions.
  31. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Dhogaza: My point was that nearly everything human related has risen that way. CO2 emissions, photographs, electrical wiring, immunizations, crude oil pumped, waste landfill created. Why single out CO2?
    Response: "Why single out CO2?"

    Because CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps heat. So when we emit billions of tonnes of a greenhouse gas into the air, we expect to see warming occur. And it has. The fact that CO2 emissions and temperature show similar hockey sticks isn't the only case for human-caused global warming, of course. Corroborating this is many independent observations finding human fingerprints throughout climate change.

    10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
  32. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    This puts me in a very difficult position. When looking at purchasing waterfront property, do I buy at the +6m level, or +20m, or what??? More seriously, this is, as David Horton stated, a terrifying image. Whatever we do now, the rollercoaster has tipped over the starting ramp, and we're in for one hell of a ride...
  33. What should we do about climate change?
    Moderator: Formatting worng again. Sorry. I am not sure what I did wrong.
  34. What should we do about climate change?
    formatting of previous post got messed up. Moderator: please delet it. Ann @219 “OK, to illustrate the difference between a direct and an indirect approach: the hole in the ozone layer is a problem that has threatened mankind, .. In this case, a direct approach was taken: prohibit the use of CFCs that break down the ozone in the atmosphere. An indirect approach could be: allow CFCs, but promote the use of alternatives, and hope that in the end no manufacturer is going to use CFCs anymore.” I agree with the direct approach. But that is not what you are proposing when you advocate CCS and renewables but not nuclear. You are advocating that society (government) picks the technologies to use. Direct approach would be to restrict CO2 emissions. I oppose picking technology winners. I gave you reasons why CCS is a ridiculous approach to take. Instead, I’d suggest, as a first step we should remove all the impediments to low cost clean electricity generation. That could be done relatively quickly if we wanted to. Our governments could remove the blocks and send a clear message to investors that nuclear is wanted urgently; we could move start making real progress. Such a change of policy woiuld be most effective and would take effect fastets if it was led by those who have most strongly opposed it in the past (Left aligned political groups and the environmental NGO’s – the same ones who are most alarmist about the dangers of climate change)
  35. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Still, not to worry, CO2 is, after all, a plant food, and I'm sure Greenland (note the name) was ice free in the MWP (now free to blossom after we broke the hockey stick) but whatever, sunspots, volcanoes, it's all perfectly natural, and any link to any kind of human activity of any kind is obviously wrong cause Ayn Rand said so.
  36. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    That second image is terrifying - like a great purple cloud of doom. We really are up the proverbial creek without, it seems, a paddle.
  37. What should we do about climate change?
    CB Dunkerson "I say X, you dispute Y. So long as you continue to do this intelligent conversation is literally impossible." I agree with this statement. So perhaps you should go back and reread my post 204. Don't pick out on sentence and quote it out of context. I've answered you. You have not answered me.
  38. What should we do about climate change?
    Ann "Despite having 80% of their power generated by nuclear plants, France's carbon dioxide emissions have increased slightly between 1990 and 2007." You have misundersood, again! I was referring to the emissions from electricity, not from all sources. I've been referring to emissions from electricity all along, as I have repeatedly stated. France's emissions from electricity are near zero. France's total emissions from electricity generation are about the same as from just two of Australia's power staions! The point I am making is that if we allowclean electricity to be cheap, it will displace oil for transport and gas for heating and, therefore, reduce emissions from all fossil fuel use. We can do this by removing the impediments to clean electricity generation. We need to establish a truely level playing field for electriticy generation technologies. Remove all the ridiculous impediments we've placed to block nuclear and to support all other industries, especially fossil fuels. In an earlier post I gave a list of some of the most obvious impediments to nuclear and support for the other technologies.
  39. What should we do about climate change?
    Archiesteel, @213, You have revealed you do not have the most basic understanding of what 'risk' means. I've pointed you to What is Risk? A simple explanation about five times so far and it is clear than you and others either haven't even bothered to read it or you haven't understood it.
  40. Stephen Baines at 10:23 AM on 1 November 2010
    The Grumble in the Jungle
    Ed Davies @8 It might be hard as the Times of London was forced to retract the original article by Jonathan Leake and pulled it from the web. There are of course many websites that site the article as truth despite the retraction. You'd barely know there was a retraction. Real Climate had a post on the retraction when it came out
  41. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Boofy: "Seriously guys, chart pretty much anything human related and you get the same shape." As Tom Dayton points out, Boofy scores an own goal with that one ... Yes, Boofy, that's the point, recent warming is human-related, related to our exponential increases in CO2 emissions ...
  42. Stephen Baines at 10:00 AM on 1 November 2010
    Hockey stick or hockey league?
    To futher Tom Dayton's point, skeptics would have you believe that the increase in photographs was a function of previously unspecified natural processes rather than the increase in people using cameras. Any attempt to show that photographs came from cameras and that people were responsible for the action of said cameras would further be dismissed as a consequence of incomplete or biased data ("Squirrels have been growing in number with urbanization. Why have you've never determined how many photographs they take?"), improper and probably inscrupulous modeling of the interactions between electromagnetic radiation and imaging materials ("You've never considered how variations in solar radiation could affect the potential for good photographs") or not in line with what the true scientific genuises of the past understood ("Galileo never used one, so cameras must not exist!").
  43. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    But Boofy, skeptics claim that temperature is not human related.
  44. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Boofy... Hmmm, what about preindustrial photograph levels? Is there a medieval photograph period? Sorry, good try but it's not the same.
  45. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Spooky!! I charted the number of photographs taken by people per year and I got the same hockey-stick graph! Now just to figure out if CO2 causes photographs or it's the other way... Seriously guys, chart pretty much anything human related and you get the same shape.
  46. gallopingcamel at 08:48 AM on 1 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    archiesteel (#215), I am a sucker for all kinds of de-centralized energy efficient technologies. I had compact fluorescents when they were only available from Amway; I have an electric car and am looking seriously at roof top PV which almost makes sense here in Florida. While these things are great fun they simply cannot compare with nuclear power when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions on a vast scale.
  47. What should we do about climate change?
    #221: "insuring the risks involved in achieving 100% renewable energy." Turns out its not the renewable technology that's the problem for Germany, its the EU's wacky trading system. As more wind turbines go online, coal plants will be able to reduce their output. This in itself is desirable -- but the problem is that the total number of available CO2 emission certificates remains the same. In other words, there will suddenly be more certificates per kilowatt of coal energy. That means the price per ton of CO2 emitted will fall. ... As a result, there was very little incentive for big energy companies to invest in climate friendly technologies. -- der Spiegel, 2/2009 That means that viable technology for GHG reduction must overcome not just the technical issues, but must also fight an economic/political headwind as well.
  48. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    facepalm #5: This isn't just climate change deniers, it's any conspiracy theorist. It's why you can never, ever convince them, no matter what evidence you provide. Conspiracy Theory 101: 1. Any evidence that would tend to disprove the conspiracy is fraudulent and, therefore, further proof of the conspiracy. 2. Any individual who argues against the conspiracy is, ipso facto, part of the conspiracy. So there is no hope of ever convincing any of the "It's a hoax" people. They have too much invested in it, and a mental framework that permits them to discard all contrary evidence without a second thought. The only thing we can do is provide rational evidence for rational people who simply are not yet in posession of the facts. In other words, do what Skeptical Science is doing.
  49. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Would it not be better to cite the original article or at least the newspaper and date?
  50. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    Same trouble as Lazarus (Firefox 3.6.12 on Mac OX X 10.5.8). Are we supposed to submit a separate report for each argument?

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