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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 108951 to 109000:

  1. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: I don't know why I'm wasting my time debating with a fanatic, but here goes: "They are at the high end? They are near a middle value for the period of the Holocene. They have been nearly 2C warmer than this in the Holocene." Actually, no, they haven't. Temperature now are way above the holocene mean, and higher than any average temperatures since the last glaciation. "Funny how it takes so long to get feedback from CO2. with water vapor the feedback is nearly immediate." Please learn what "feedback" means.
  2. Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
    "Please provide evidence of such an unknown climate shift. Put up or shut up." The shift of the PDO and NAO at about the same time in the late mid 70s put us into this warm spell. Good enough? There are signs they both may go negative again at the same time and that could put us right back into the type of weather we had in the middle of the century.
  3. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "@cruzn246: temperatures are at the high end of the last 450,000 years, as well, though it will take a couple of decades until we get the full effect of anthropogenic CO2. So, the reality is that temperatures are at the highest and ice cover is at the lowest since the last glacial period, even though the climate optimum was a couple of thousand years ago. In other words, you have *no* idea what you're talking about. I suggest you refrain from making any more fallacious comment and thus avoid embarrassing yourself any further." They are at the high end? They are near a middle value for the period of the Holocene. They have been nearly 2C warmer than this in the Holocene. Temperatures during the Holocene have been above this level numerous times and dropped back again. The temperature has been bouncing around in a roughly 4C range for the last 10,000 years. The previous 4 interglacial periods all ended with temps at least 2C warmer than we are now. Ice volumes are not as low as they were prior to the last glaciation. Funny how it takes so long to get feedback from CO2. with water vapor the feedback is nearly immediate. Sure you can say high end but they are not at their warmest by any means.
  4. Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
    In a different thread, cruzn246 made this claim relating to Water Vapor concentration (after I stated it represented about 0.4% of the atmosphere): "Actually this is wrong. It ranges from 1 to 4% with the average being between 2 and 3%" Those figure are for surface value. In the entire atmosphere it's 0.4%. "but no one is really sure what that average is on any given day." True, but irrelevant. The water is already part of the weather system, contrary to fossil fuel CO2 which is being added to the atmosphere. "According to NASA, they say the increase in water vapor is probably playing a bigger part in warming now than CO2, but they will not put numbers on either as far as the amount each is contributing." Water Vapor acts as a positive feedback to CO2-caused warming. It has a bigger impact on GW than CO2, but we are not adding new water to the system. We are adding more CO2, which increases the heat, which causes more water to evaporate, which further raises temperature. We all know this. Why do you come here on your high horse and tell us things that we already know as if you had the "killer argument" against AGW? All you're doing is highlighting your own ignorance for all to see. "The difference in an atmosphere with a strong water vapor feedback and one with a weak feedback is enormous," Dessler said." Note the use of the word "feedback." Basically, this articles agrees with the science presented here, and disagrees with you. I know it's common for less experienced deniers to mistakenly provide evidence that goes against their position, but this one's pretty obvious... "I think all you need is a simple climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2 to put more water vapor in the air." Please provide evidence of such an unknown climate shift. Put up or shut up.
  5. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    @Daniel Bailey & muoncounter: n. (Abbr. J or j) 1.The International System unit of electrical, mechanical, and thermal energy. 2.a. A unit of electrical energy equal to the work done when a current of one ampere is passed through a resistance of one ohm for one second. 2.b. A unit of energy equal to the work done when a force of one newton acts through a distance of one meter. [After James Prescott JOULE.] Per Answer.com
  6. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    I'm responding to your erroneous Water Vapour claims on the correct thread.
  7. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    @ Daniel Bailey & muoncounter: Thanks for chiming in. I knew the basics. I still do not understand why this article uses Watts/m-2 and the Pielke article uses Joules. Perhaps I am missing something, but it seems to me that any measure of the heat content of the ocean must be done by volume. Watts/m-2 seems related to area only.
  8. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "Actually, water vapor represents about 0.4% of the atmosphere." Actually this is wrong. It ranges from 1 to 4% with the average being between 2 and 3%, but no one is really sure what that average is on any given day. According to NASA, they say the increase in water vapor is probably playing a bigger part in warming now than CO2, but they will not put numbers on either as far as the amount each is contributing. Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html Here is a quote from their article. "The difference in an atmosphere with a strong water vapor feedback and one with a weak feedback is enormous," Dessler said. They are just starting to get a handle on water vapor feedback. My prediction is that in ten years they will see it as an even more important player in warming. I think all you need is a simple climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2 to put more water vapor in the air. You melt more ice, that means more water, that means less reflection , albedo, and you have a warmer more humid earth without adding any CO2. Does CO2 add to this? Sure, but I really think it's piece is grossly overestimated.
  9. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: temperatures are at the high end of the last 450,000 years, as well, though it will take a couple of decades until we get the full effect of anthropogenic CO2. So, the reality is that temperatures are at the highest and ice cover is at the lowest since the last glacial period, even though the climate optimum was a couple of thousand years ago. In other words, you have *no* idea what you're talking about. I suggest you refrain from making any more fallacious comment and thus avoid embarrassing yourself any further.
  10. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "Answer: Now we're at 390ppm, which would put the green line off the top of the chart. That didn't happen before on this time scale (you asked for glacial/interglacials only). Still believe its all happened before? And exactly when is this ice age of yours going to happen?" Great, we are at the highest CO2 rates in the last 450.000 years. Not even close to the highest temperatures. So what am I supposed to think? I know one thing about the end of the last interglacial. Sea levels were a heck of a lot higher than they are now. There was also a lot less ice. That is why we are still in a warm period and not cooling off yet.
  11. CO2 measurements are suspect
    muoncounter at 04:49 AM, the annual variations depend on the degree of difference between the seasons when plant growth slows or becomes dormant and the season when it is most vigorous. In the case of the Schmidt report which I have only read the abstract of, and hence do not know what the actual seasonal conditions were, were they a period of predominately drought or wet years, nor the actual ppm readings, it is impossible to say whether that the natural processes respond more the higher the CO2 concentration, or were responding to changing seasonal conditions due to decadal long natural cycles.
  12. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Yooper, Joules is a measure of energy in the SI system. Watts are Joules per second, the measure of power consumption (think 100 watt light bulb). Watt/m^2 is a measure of energy per unit time spread out over an area. In this context, that is often called flux. Thus 100 Watts/m^2 represents the power consumption of a 100 watt bulb spread out on a surface area of one square meter.
  13. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Re: Badgersouth (28) My understanding is that Joules is a measure of power per unit time, while W m-2 is used to describe units of solar irradiance (the energy falling on a unit area over a unit time). Not quite the same thing. Try here. Looks like it might be what you want. But then, maybe nobody knows... The Yooper
  14. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    HELP! In this posting and commnet thread, ocean heat content is expressed in W m–2. In the posting and comment thread re Dr. Roger Pielke and the "missing heat", ocean heat content is expressed in Joules. Why the use of two different measures? What's the crosswalk between "W m-2" and "Joules."
  15. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    #77:"Of course I believe it's warming. ... I think our break from that kind of weather is about to end." So you do believe in warming, but you also believe its all natural? Happened before, will happen again, nbd. At the risk of repeating an oft-seen graphic: Let's see if we can spot the difference between today and previous episodes. Hint: CO2 is the middle graph, note vertical scale on the right. Left-most point on that graph (the most recent) just peaks over 280ppm, which looks like the prior warm episodes. Answer: Now we're at 390ppm, which would put the green line off the top of the chart. That didn't happen before on this time scale (you asked for glacial/interglacials only). Still believe its all happened before? And exactly when is this ice age of yours going to happen?
  16. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Re: cruzn246 (84) Magic 8-ball says 12,900 cubic kilometers in the air; or a bit more than the volume of Lake Superior (12,000 cubic kilometers). For extra credit, the 4% increase in atmospheric water vapor since 1970 due to the higher temperatures is about equal to the volume of Lake Erie. In case you had an enquiring mind. The (Il mio nome è Nessuno) Yooper
    Moderator Response: Further discussion of water vapor needs to be on the thread Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas.
  17. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "Well debunkerson, tell me what the total world concentration of water vapor is today. Oh, you don't know? No, nobody can answer that question" Actually, water vapor represents about 0.4% of the atmosphere. Again, don't gauge what science knows based on your own ignorance.
    Moderator Response: Further discussion of water vapor needs to be on the thread Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas.
  18. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "Well cripes man, it's amazing you have any doubters here with the way some of you treat someone who says no." You don't just come here to say no, you come here repeat debunk denier arguments and refuse to respond to actual counter-arguments with scientific evidence. What's more, you use a very aggressive tone and denigrate the fine scientists who have produced a mountain of research supporting AGW. You are not interested in learning the truth, but only want to be comforted in your non-scientific opinion. "We just had a record summer for highest average low temperatures in my area." What's a "high average low temperature"? I guess you're trying to say you've had "record low temperatures" in your area, is that it? Well, the fact it was cold in your area doesn't mean anything, especially when you agree that we are warming. "You know, that greenhouse gas no one mentions" If you're talking about Water Vapor, it is mentioned all the time. In fact, it was mentioned quite a few times in this thread alone, proving your wrong. You seem to have a problem formulating a logically sound argument. Perhaps you should learn a bit more about the science before trying to argue with people who understanding better than you do?
  19. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "I'd explain why this is nonsense, but it obviously wouldn't make any difference. Enjoy your fantasy world where long term increased atmospheric water vapor is both the cause AND effect of temperature increases." Well debunkerson, tell me what the total world concentration of water vapor is today. Oh, you don't know? No, nobody can answer that question, but you all think we know exactly how this whole atmosphere works. How the heck can we know when we can't put a reliable figure on such a crucial component? You can't.
    Moderator Response: Further discussion of water vapor needs to be on the thread Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas.
  20. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    cruzn246, so your statement that CO2 rises never proceed temperature rises was... false, but we should ignore that and concentrate ONLY on a relatively recent period of glacial cycles during which there have been no sudden profound increases in CO2... except for the current human driven one. Which we should also ignore. Yes, once we blinder ourselves to all evidence to the contrary your position only looks slightly ridiculous. Unfortunately you then go and ruin it with; "There was also a huge spike in water vapor being outgassed in those eras. That is why they called those hot periods back then warm and humid. It's not like CO2 was the only thing going way up." I'd explain why this is nonsense, but it obviously wouldn't make any difference. Enjoy your fantasy world where long term increased atmospheric water vapor is both the cause AND effect of temperature increases.
  21. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    We just had a record summer for highest average low temperatures in my area. Guess why. Yep, we had the highest average dewpoints for the summer also. You know, that greenhouse gas no one mentions.
  22. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "There ARE cases where temperature peaked after CO2 did. For instance... now, various flood basalt incidents, the snowball Earth scenario ~650 million years ago, et cetera." There was also a huge spike in water vapor being outgassed in those eras. That is why they called those hot periods back then warm and humid. It's not like CO2 was the only thing going way up.
  23. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "-2C in a century is free-fall and the current global +0.13C per decade (that's 1.3C per century) -- and more for the NH isn't a warmup you can believe in? " That's 1.3 per Century if it lasts a century. Don't confuse rate with actual amount. It's gone up about 1C in the last 100 years. That kind of change has happened before. Of course I believe it's warming. I am alive. I was also alive in the 70s. Thank God it's mot like that anymore, although I think our break from that kind of weather is about to end.
  24. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "There ARE cases where temperature peaked after CO2 did. For instance... now, various flood basalt incidents, the snowball Earth scenario ~650 million years ago, et cetera." These temps are not in any kind of peak now. They are just warm for the last 500 years. If they keep rising nonstop the next couple hundred years maybe. The flood basalt incidents were in a completely different type of earth climate. Snowball earth, another different climate. Things were so different 500,000,000 years ago, including continental placement, that comparing to those times is like comparing to another world. Our whole atmosphere was different. Let's try to keep this in the interglacial periods please.
  25. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    #72: "They will almost be in a free-fall. I would bet changes on the order of 2C in a century over the N hemisphere would happen easily." -2C in a century is free-fall and the current global +0.13C per decade (that's 1.3C per century) -- and more for the NH isn't a warmup you can believe in?
  26. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    Despite strong political reasons for them not to endorse, the following countries endorsed the IPCC 2007 reports because the science was undeniable: United States of America - Fossil fuel-based economy, strong lobby efforts opposed to regulating fossil fuel emissions Saudi Arabia - World's largest producer/exporter of oil China - Rapidly industrializing using coal-fired power plants India - Rapidly industrializing using coal-fired power plants The IPCC WGI Report (2007) concluded: “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” 130 countries endorsed the reports, and since 2007, no scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion. Politics? Hardly.
  27. CO2 measurements are suspect
    Following Tom D.'s use of the thread-shifting rule, this is a reply to johnd's comment on The Big Picture thread: "Interestingly even when the stations are located in heavily industrialised regions the same seasonal variation still occurs" The magnitude of seasonal variation is hardly the same at all locations. Equatorial and southern hemisphere locations have much smaller seasonal swings. High northern latitude locations have much larger seasonal differences. Heavily industrial areas (like those downwind of power plants) have the largest annual amplitudes -- and tend to have higher annual average concentrations as well. The only thing that is more or less consistent is the rate of increase from year to year, which has crept up from 1 to >2 ppm/year over the 50 years of modern records. Oddly enough, in areas with stringent pollution controls, the annual amplitude may decrease, as reported by Schmidt et al. 2003 in a study of 30 years of CO2 records in Germany: The average seasonal cycle (peak to peak) amplitude has decreased slightly from 13.8 ± 0.6 ppm in the first decade (1972–1981) to 12.8 ± 0.7 ppm in the last two decades (1982–2001). Not too much of a decrease. But it is becoming clear that not only do we add CO2 to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, we can modify the annual variation in its concentration. Aren't those what we call anthropogenic effect?
  28. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Re: cruzn246 (72, et-way-too-many-al) Nothing you've said at any point shows you have an understanding of science. At all. Or that you're anything less superficial than what you seem to be. You ignore every scientific rebuttal of your, um, "opinions" (since they're obviously not based on science) and continue blithely on your rambling way. Give us something solid to go on that shows we should ever take you seriously again. Or that you're here to learn something and not just here to waste everyone's time. Because as of now, we've no other conclusions to draw. The Yooper
  29. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    cruzn246 #71: "I disagree with the whole premise because I have never been shown that CO2 is responsible for most of our current warmup. It's that simple. You can throw some sort of "science" at me, but when it flies in the face of the past, not just the recent past, I just don't buy it." And when you are presented with evidence that it DOESN'T 'fly in the face of the past', as for instance my comments in post #55, you simply ignore it. Which is how you maintain your beliefs in the face of overwhelming proof to the contrary. Deny the evidence to the contrary and you are free to continue believing what you want to believe... truth be damned.
  30. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    I do think that when, and if, the climate goes back into glaciation it will be very sudden in the N hemisphere, as far as temperature change is concerned. I think the N hemisphere drives global change. I also think the shutdown of the Gulf stream is the trigger. Will worldwide tamps show the same quick drop. heck no. It'll take time to cool of all that water in the S Hemisphere. But that doesn't mean N Hemisphere tempos will drop slow. They will almost be in a free-fall. I would bet changes on the order of 2C in a century over the N hemisphere would happen easily. I also think that could go on for 500 years or so.
  31. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    God, hit me for typos (probability) and hit me for not using the terminology you all use (trip rather than tip). I meant to complete the sentence differently when I used probability, and didn't go back to fix it. I think of the big change in climate like a trip wire. I disagree with the whole premise because I have never been shown that CO2 is responsible for most of our current warmup. It's that simple. You can throw some sort of "science" at me, but when it flies in the face of the past, not just the recent past, I just don't buy it.
  32. beam me up scotty at 04:15 AM on 26 September 2010
    The Big Picture (2010 version)
    May you live in interesting times. Or "It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period" (寧為太平犬，不做亂世人; pinyin: níng wéi tàipíng quǎn, bù zuò luànshì rén
  33. beam me up scotty at 04:07 AM on 26 September 2010
    The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    The critique as spoken by the critic is very reasonable. http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/the-climate-desk/audio-after-glaciergate-un-panel-on-climate-change-mulls-reforms/3673/ When the information gets into the hands of the deniers... different story. I doubt there are many sincere skeptics anymore. There are of course many members of the denier cult. I don't think they can be reached.
  34. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    It's interesting, or perhaps amusing, that this thread wants to take a step back because "often we can't see the forest for the trees". Nothing wrong with that in itself, however given that one theme that consistently plays here is that sceptics don't have just one argument to rebutt AGW but numerous ones, or numerous trees. The response then almost inevitably is that whilst there may be some correlation from the evidence presented, the individual trees, unless there is 100% correlation, then the argument presented fails. What is apparent from that general treatment of the various arguments presented is a lack of understanding that perhaps the climate, the forest, does not respond to just one dominant driver or tree, in the case of the AGW argument, CO2, but instead responds to numerous drivers that vary in timing and magnitude as to what force, positive or negative, they contribute to the overall nett result. The tree and forest analogy is very appropriate I feel given the weight given to tree rings as a means of establishing proxy temperatures. Just as many sceptic arguments do not show 100% correlation, nor do all the trees in the forests used to collect tree ring data show 100% correlation, In fact the majority of the trees don't, and it comes down to selecting just a few that show high correlation in order to compile the data sets required.
  35. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    For my part I'm not a researcher studying matters of climate, but I follow the topic fairly closely and that's why I can't help but notice cruzn246's disagreement with vast swathes of established research findings, a sweeping dismissal that is boldly conspicuous. Take a moment to summarize what cruzn246 disagrees with and then ask, "what's the probability 'cruzn246' knows better?" My guess is that he/she will disagree with anything smacking of an attribution of significant climate change to anthropogenic influences. The big picture, again.
  36. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Re: cruzn246 For someone who wants to be a Climatologist, you know very little about the field. or about science or the scientific method. You are telling people here on this thread, with lifetimes of experience and working knowledge in the field, the the science they know (which is itself based on the accumulated lifetimes of study and research of hundreds of thousands of scientists) is wrong. Do you not see a problem with that? I would suggest, at the very least, going here and follow the links and try to gain a base understanding of what's actually going on in the field. If you want to learn, first admit you don't know everything. That's a prerequisite. The Yooper
  37. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    "Tripping point?" "till.......the trip happens?" Are you sure you've got your terminology straight, Cruzn246?
  38. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Archiesteel "Actually, we're past the climate optimum for this interglacial period, so temperatures should be (slowly) going down instead of rising." So some think. That is for folks who really don't know what the real tripping point is. Fact is, it is probability ocean currents/sea levels, and when that happens a slow fall is not what you will see. It'll be a very sharp drop. There is some chance we may not warm up fast enough to bring the sea levels up to catch the right Milankovitch cycles, but that is still something we are waiting to see. The ocean current drive may be so strong that it will even overcome what is thought to be the "wrong" time in the Milankovitch cycle. It also may be that we could miss the glacial period if we hold seal levels down for a few more thousand years. Of course that's gonna be hard to do. when you are in the warm cycle, as we are, oceans just seem to keep rising till.......the trip happens.
  39. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    cruzn246 at 02:26 AM, this review of the most recently published study Fresh water may have cooled North Atlantic putting that "the decrease recorded in the Earth's temperature between the 1940s and 1970s was caused by a sudden cooling of the oceans in the northern hemisphere" may be of interest to you.
  40. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    CBDunkerson at 19:09 PM, the CO2 levels recorded at the surface stations used in this study Mechanisms for synoptic variations of atmospheric CO2 in North America, South America and Europe clearly indicate the huge seasonal variation in CO2 levels which coincides with increased uptake by plants during the growing season. The annual cycle shows variations of generally 20-40ppm but can be in excess of 50ppm depending on location. Interestingly even when the stations are located in heavily industrialised regions the same seasonal variation still occurs but with some of the highest annual variations of all the locations sampled, the station at Heidelberg Germany, described as having a fairly strong industrial influence to the east being the prime example with annual variation in excess of 50ppm.
    Moderator Response: Wrong thread for continuing this conversation. See the Moderator's Comment on Tom Dayton's comment.
  41. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "We know it was warmer than this during the Holocene many times." Actually, it wasn't (as far as global averages are concerned). Also, you should put cited text you reply to in quotes, it makes it easier to understand the points you are trying to make.
  42. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "26% today? How about when CO2 was at 180 or so 10,000 years ago." Temperatures were about 8 degrees colder at that time. So, 46% less CO2 (roughly half) means 8 degrees colder. That's more than the 3C climate sensitivity currenly estimated, actually, and evidence of positive/negative feedback when CO2 levels change.
  43. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    We are breaking an increasing amount of temperature records, we are at the end of the warmest decade in recorded history, and the increase matches what the climate models predict. What more proof do you want? People's clothes catching on fire when they go out for a stroll? Don't be ridiculous, please. Recorded history. Big deal. We know it was warmer than this during the Holocene many times. So we are at the warmest in the last 200 years. That isn't a big enough sample to say warmest ever. Cripes, pull some reality glasses on. These temps are well within norms. So the models got it right. Whooppeee!
    Moderator Response: See the argument It's Not Bad.
  44. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    As to how warm it would be without CO2. CO2 accounts for about 26% of the 33 C greenhouse warming. That yields about 8.6 26% today? How about when CO2 was at 180 or so 10,000 years ago.
    Moderator Response: See Does high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?. Discuss the topic on that thread.
  45. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "30C colder? Are you nuts? No frickin way. Wherever you got that from is crazy." Such brilliant rhetoric has convinced me. *rolleyes* I'm sorry, cruzn246, I though you were a serious commenter, but now I see you're just a common troll. Mods, can we remove cruzn246's post and this reply? They add nothing to the discussion.
  46. Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect
    Nerndt at 14 and others, The oceans temperature is controlled by its interaction with the atmosphere. AGW causes the atmosphere to warm. When the atmosphere warms, it warms the ocean under it. Because the ocean is so much larger than the atmosphere, it takes a long time for the ocean to warm to equilibrium. The time lag described in this article is largely due to the long time it takes for the ocean to be warmed by the hot atmosphere. The ocean cools the atmosphere as it warms up. When the ocean finally reaches equilibrium, the atmosphere is hotter than it was at the start because the ocean no longer cools it. Since we live in the atmosphere, we are most concerned with the temperature rise in the atmosphere. The rise in atmospheric temperatures is slowed by the thermal mass of the ocean. Thus the atmosphere warms immediately when the forcing on it increases. As the ocean (slowly) warms, the atmosphere warms even more, even if the forcing no longer rises. Unfortunately, the IPCC estimates of climate sensitivity of 2-4.5C per doubling are for short term warming, not equilibrium warming. The equilibrium warming, in say 1000 years, is higher than the short term warming.
  47. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    @cruzn246: "The whole thing about CO2 just leaves me baffled." Clearly, but just because you're ignorant of the science doesn't mean you should assume it's wrong. "Of course it is explained that CO2 lags for whatever reason when a warmup occurs." CO2 Lags Temperature "Face it people, the big greenhouse gas here is water vapor." We are not adding new water vapor to the atmosphere, but we are adding CO2 that has been sequestered for millions of years. The current warming is due to rising CO2, which is likely to increase the amount of WV in the atmosphere, thus increasing the warming. "but till we really see some temperatures out of the norm, which we are not close to seeing" We are breaking an increasing amount of temperature records, we are at the end of the warmest decade in recorded history, and the increase matches what the climate models predict. What more proof do you want? People's clothes catching on fire when they go out for a stroll? Don't be ridiculous, please. "We are still in what has been a relatively warm period called the Holocene, and the simple fact is that we will probably see higher temps then this before this whole climate system flips." Actually, we're past the climate optimum for this interglacial period, so temperatures should be (slowly) going down instead of rising. "And CO2 has little or nothing to do with it. it is a minor player in the whole climate system. Greenouse gases allow us to trap heat, but they are not the big players in climate change. [...] The whole system is so complex we barley know how it works but the balance of solar factors, albedo, and ocean temperatures and currents are all bigger players." Science disagrees with you. "Anyone who knows anything about our glacial climatology should know that we are bound to stay warm until we see a radical change in ocean currents." Why do you believe you know more than the experts in the field? Please educate yourself.
  48. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Re: cruzn246 (46), doug_bostrom (47) OK, I'll take my turn at the plow, Doug.
    "Can someone tell me how warm it would be if no CO2 was in the atmosphere?"
     To even ask this questions is telling as to your state of awareness of the science. But let's pretend you have honestly asked that question. Here's a quick, quasi-sciency answer:
    If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth, it would have an expected blackbody temperature of 5.3 °C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5]) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's actual blackbody temperature is about -18 or -19 °C [6][7], about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual temperature and the blackbody temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect.
    So, essentially a global average temp of -2 degrees F, or about -18 degrees C. Thus, no liquid water anywhere and no life. All very well understood for over a hundred years. Water vapor acts to enhance the warming of greenhouse gases, which can then elevate CO2 levels even more, which can then enhance temps even more. This usually dampens itself out over time; temps & CO2 levels eventually reach an equilibrium. These all are quantifiable due to the physics of radiative gases (no computer or fancy GCM's required). It does get a little complicated sometimes, depending upon the rates at which CO2 changes. But, hey, no one said it would be easy to learn. BTW, CO2 is the most important of the greenhouse gases, even including water vapor. You really ought to watch this for a clear explanation. The Yooper
  49. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    cruzn246 #50: "So why the heck can you never go anywhere in the temperature history and find one stinking time that temperature peaked after CO2 peaked?" More denialist fiction. There ARE cases where temperature peaked after CO2 did. For instance... now, various flood basalt incidents, the snowball Earth scenario ~650 million years ago, et cetera.
  50. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    #46: "how do you all explain the big drops in the CO2 chart from Beck?" Easy. From a presentation (not published?) by Massen and Beck 2006: The historic measurements have horrible standard deviations. See Fig 10: 398+/-62 ppm, Fig 11: 327+/-23ppm, Fig 12: 339+/-33.

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