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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 110851 to 110900:

  1. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    scaddenp at 07:04 AM, you are also avoiding the original point. That was where energy required for evaporation originates from, and thus how this affects the amount of water vapour that enters the atmosphere driven by factors that are not driven by the temperature, but instead are the primary drivers. All you have shown so far is that of the solar energy that has been absorbed by water as thermal energy in the case of evaporation, some of it is transferred into water vapour by the evaporation process which requires an energy input, and some is radiated off into the atmosphere, two completely different processes. It should be obvious that if thermal energy is being radiated off, it is not being utilised for evaporation, nor is it adding to the heat content of the water, it cannot be assumed to be in different places at the one time, or being used by concurrent processes. Radiation only occurs when an actual transfer of energy occurs, which in the case of water, any energy content of the water will be reduced by an amount that is the difference between outgoing and incoming thermal radiation as shown on the budget chart. It is already clear that what is radiated off is energy that is not being used in the evaporation process so why would the evaporation process then be able to utilise the lesser back radiation when part of the solar radiation is required to add additional energy to the outgoing radiation leaving even less energy available to drive evaporation. Varying cloud cover has an direct effect on evaporation, and even in an environment of above average air temperatures, evaporation will fall below average levels as cloud cover increases above average levels, not just at any particular point of time, but as a general response over a period of time.
  2. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Ned #46 Fair enough. However I will note that BP has posted here since I flagged his cop out in #42, and since then I've decided that it was worse than a mere cop out. So I'd figure I'd flag him to follow it up properly when he's back, or ignore it at his peril.
  3. Empirically observed fingerprints of anthropogenic global warming
    Fair point Chris. I started out writing about correct climate model predictions, but most of them turned out to be anthropogenic signals, so I switched gears. But you're right that several of these are *consistent with* AGW rather than "fingerprints". I'll adjust the rebuttal accordingly.
  4. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    Johnd- as we continue to tell you - the surface is radiated by both the sun AND the back radiation. Once you get this, then you really understand the greenhouse gas effect. While you continue to misunderstand this, then you continue to talk nonsense. Take a while to understand that whole chart. Read the paper.
  5. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Whoops, "decreases it locally" it should say. I would have to say that I am assuming that UHI is largely air heated by dark surfaces rather than waste heat.
  6. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Well as is usually the case, the IPCC WG1 has a good index to the data and literature. Overall though it appears that land use change is (eg forest to farm) increases albedo though urbanization with it asphalt surfaces obviously increases it locally. Some discussion
  7. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    michael sweet, -you're probably right. was just wondering, and where can i find some data on this particular subject (UHI)?
    Moderator Response: One relevant post you can find by typing "It's Waste Heat" into the Search field at the top left of this page.
  8. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    michael sweet at 04:37 AM, I think it was clear that the discussion was focused on back radiation and the evaporation process, not the whole energy budget. Perhaps read back through the thread and pick up on that particular theme again instead of diverting away from it. In the meantime, regarding how the energy radiated from the surface can be larger than the energy from the sun alone, in forming a budget it is the nett result that determines a surplus or a deficit. Clearly the combination of radiation and back radiation shows a nett deficit, which is a cooling process, not warming. If that process is unable to sustain itself, losing energy, how is it able to give up energy to drive evaporation? If it hasn't been given up to evaporation when the water releases it as thermal radiation, a lesser amount of returning thermal radiation is not going to provide extra energy to drive a process that required more energy than was available originally. Evaporation releases excess energy over and above what is being lost by thermal radiation.
  9. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    thingadonta wrote: A completely opposite way of looking at it (the skeptical one, by the way), is that you should actually never 'cast aside' one's 'doubt of climate science'; such is the road to ideology, blind faith, and false certainty as a means to social power and control. The Aztecs and Mayans discovered it, and now 21str century ‘scientists’ have discovered it (but not the sceptical ones). The pre-Columbian peoples of America did not have "blind faith" in their religions - they followed them because they seemed to work. They offered sacrifices, the Gods responded with rain, good crops and victory in war. A year of drought could be cured by more sacrifices, and the Gods would be appeased. Unfortunately, the series of good years were accompanied by expansion in populations and farming (slashing and burning hill areas, for example) that were unsustainable in prolonged periods of drought. These were followed by revolutions, overthrow of the city elites, population collapse, desertion of the large cities, and (sometimes) mass murder and cannibalism. These societies were essentially conservative, led by elites who aggrandized themselves with buildings, temples, expanded populations for bigger armies and personal display. If there were a few Mayan radicals they might have said "We have enough large temples - let us build granaries to store grain and resevoirs to retain water. Let us limit our wars to defence only. Instead, we should be limiting our population growth and ensuring our agriculture is sustainable. We know from history this region endures catastrophic droughts every few centuries - let us plan to mitigate those because one will surely happen, maybe in the times of our children or grandchildren." The elites would have replied "The Gods will punish us if we do not build larger temples. Other cities will have bigger temples, and the Gods are fickle. We need a bigger population to provide us with the young men to fight and win wars to bring back slaves to build those temples. And droughts? If we please the Gods, they will not punish us with droughts. We must expand our agricultural base to please the Gods and our wise rulers." Which one was exercising "social power and control"? Which one was offering the solution most likely to work in the long term?
  10. CO2 has a short residence time
    Doug Mackie wrote: "The final amount of extra CO2 that remains in the atmosphere stays there on a time scale of centuries." This conclusion does not follow from the presented arguments. It could be true if the bulk atmosphere is a nearly isolated reservoir. It is not. Since the CO2 is considered as "well mixed" gas, it will mix well with the atmospheric boundary layer as well, the layer which supplies the estimated source of 200GT/y. Therefore, the relaxation time of CO2 perturbation must be still the same as the turnover time, 4-5 years. This estimation of characteristic time is consistent with global observations after Pinatubo eruption.
  11. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    david: The urban areas of the world only add up to a few percent of the earths surface. Farms, forest, wiild areas and ocean account the bulk of the surface. Careful measurement of urban effects show the effects of UHI are very small.
  12. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    Johnd, It is you who cannot read the chart. Incoming radiation from the sun=342 reflected (sun) radiation=107 outgoing longwave=235 reflected + outgoing longwave=incoming as required by physics. The energy radiated from the surface is a combination of energy from the sun and backradiation so it is larger than either. The chart is an accurate summary of the energy balance, if you know how to read it. No energy is counted twice. Some energy is lost from the surface by evaporation and convection. Read the chart more carefully before you try to explain it to others.
  13. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    michael sweet at 21:47 PM, it appears that some of your points are being made without reference to the chart. On the point of back radiation, the chart clearly shows that the back radiation value is 324 whilst the value of energy radiated off is 390, a deficit of 66. Any nett loss of energy is a cooling effect not a warming, it is dissipating into the atmosphere through radiation a portion of the energy transferred to the surface by solar radiation. Now remembering that thermal radiation is a transfer of heat energy, in this situation, if it is being lost from the surface through thermal radiation, then it is simply not available to be lost to the surface through evaporation. The processes in practice are vastly more complex than the chart indicates, however the energy cannot be assigned to two different processes simultaneously or accounted for twice when compiling the budget, which is what seems to be suggested.
  14. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    I, for one, am happy that the Fact that our world has been warming has at last been Found. Else all the Red Herrings of the sea would disappear like Deleted Comments are wont to do. The Yooper
  15. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    For what it's worth, I was shocked to hear such a ridiculous argument for global warming! In my not so humble opinion, this smacks of desperation on the part of the skeptics. Rather than explaining the science to a contrarian who came up with this argument, I would be more tempted to laugh. Bob Guercio
  16. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    James, good post. I agree with m. sweet's point, though. The inclusion of the stratosphere in #4 is confusing. I'd suggest dropping it from #4 and adding it as a parenthetical after the list, or as a footnote to #4. Also, I'd suggest dropping the comments about skeptics from #1, and put them with your discussion of the "bricks" at the end. If you do those two things, your list will be clean and uncluttered and pure evidence, and will serve to support your comments below. If you decide to take any of this editorial advice, feel free to delete this comment.
  17. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    First, why is anyone taking thingadonta seriously? Come on, people. Climate scientists are the equivalent of Aztec or Mayan priests sacrificing thousands of people? The goal of climate science is world domination? It's funny. Second, why didn't the moderator delete that post? It has zero science content, is off-topic, and entirely political. If it's real, it's evidence of a paranoid psychosis, and if it's fake, it's pure trolling. Either way, it has no place here.
  18. New presentation debunking Monckton's critique of IPCC predictions
    Roy #7, you've just done the same thing Monckton does... rewrite things to a false narrative which you can 'disprove'. The "refutation of Monckton" in the linked video and writeup is that he took a formula for "long term" warming for a given rise in CO2 and treated it as IMMEDIATE warming once that level of CO2 was reached. He calculated that an assumed level of CO2 at 2100 would result in the formula's warming result immediately in 2100 (thereby misapplying the formula) and then took a linear slope towards getting to that point over the past ten years (thereby ignoring that warming is predicted to be, and thus far has been, increasing in rate, rather than linear). The rest of your analysis is equally inaccurate, and if you are really going to argue that a seven year 'trend' means anything in the face of a hundred year trend in the opposite direction on either side of those seven years then this stops being about any kind of reason.
  19. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    uh, i'm no scientist, but if you have a world full of "urban heat islands", wouldn't that in itself warm the earth?
  20. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    VoxRat, the IPCC has a good explanation of choice of baseline in the Working Group I report from the TAR back in 2001. Sorry I've not got a more recent one; I'm lazy, and that popped up at the top of a Google search.
  21. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    "BTW, what exactly did you mean with your use of the word "halcyon"?" Sorry. It was a flippant allusion to the notion that there was once a Golden Age, when the climate was what it's "supposed to be". And I understand the concept of "anomalies"; I'm just curious as to what the (arbitrarily chosen) baseline period is in each of these cases; whether it's the same in each; and if there's any particular reason for choosing one period over another. (And, BTW, I share your enthusiasm for this site as a great resource.)
  22. Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!
    gpwayne @ 42 - "As mentioned in the post, models predict a reduction in frequence but increase in energy. This will lead to greater landfall if correct." Is that true?. The graphic above, indicates the more intense hurricanes seem to have less likelihood of making landfall (well major land masses anyway). Granted, it's only "eyeballing" & I've only skimmed through a handful of papers so far.
    Moderator Response: [Graham] - check out the intermediate, the paper is referenced there. (As I understand it, the argument is that greater intensity will lead to increased duration, so more will make landfall before blowing themselves out).
  23. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    GC @ 58 - "it is nonsense to suggest that CO2 is driving global temperatures over the periods of time covered by the ices cores." I agree with you. Cavemen, woolly mammoths and sabre tooth tigers did not drive SUV's and build industrial smokestacks. Given the limits of scientific certainty that is. No, back then, CO2 acted as a feedback, responding to the temperature change, caused by changes in the Earth's orbit -out gassing from the oceans as the Earth warmed thereby amplifying the warming effect, then being absorbed back into the oceans as the Earth cooled. This was all in the "argument" I referred you to earlier.
  24. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    Re: VoxRat (3) In any trend analysis one has to deal with noise in the datasets. In climate science, anomalies are used to reduce noise in the data, enabling better discernment of whether or not there is change in the data. See here. Reference baselines typically consists of periods of 30+ years for statistical robustness. BTW, what exactly did you mean with your use of the word "halcyon"? If you genuinely seek to improve your knowledge, or have knowledge you wish to share here, that is why John created this resource for all. As far as coffee, my preference is Papua New Guinea, fresh roasted and ground. Cheers, The Yooper
  25. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    Dapplewater (#54), Thanks to much improved time resolution, the Vostok ice core studies convincingly demonstrate that temperatures lead atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It is nonsense to suggest that CO2 is driving global temperatures over the periods of time covered by the ices cores. However, the hypothesis that falling global temperatures are associated with increasing glaciation, falling sea levels, reduced precipitation, widespread arid conditions and falling CO2 concentrations looks plausible.
  26. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    Daniel Bailey (#50), The link you site assumes that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere drives global temperature whereas the exact opposite is more plausible. Looking back hundreds of millions of years we still lack the time resolution to put this matter to rest once and for all. It seems likely that what is true for the last 700,000 years is also true for the earlier Ice Ages. See my response to Dapplewater.
  27. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    Most of those graphs are presented in terms of "anomalies"... I.e. deviations from some arbitrarily chosen reference period. Is it the same reference period for all of them? Is there some reason to pick one over another? My first reaction was "Oh! the ordinate value is rising! But it's not so bad, because it's only about as far above what it's 'supposed' to be, as it was below for a few decades!" (What can I say; I just got up and haven't had coffee.) But then I realized they all seem to be relative to a period somewhere around 1980, not some halcyon period when all was right with the world.
  28. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    I wouldn't read too much into a lack of response, kdkd. People go away on vacations, or they get busy and don't have time to follow up. There have definitely been times when I've posted things here but been too busy to follow the site for a week or so afterwards -- if people had posed a bunch of challenging questions to me they would have mostly gone unanswered.
  29. Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!
    An interesting graphic of 150 years of tropical storm tracks, clear to see which region gets hammered the most.
  30. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    I meant the stratosphere was the exception in that it wasn’t warming. I didn’t mean that it wasn’t consistent with AGW – which it certainly is.
  31. Quantifying the human contribution to global warming
    Thanks for the answer Chris. In a nutshell my view is "all climate is local". Here's one particular location where the seasonal variations were examined and could not be explained by a temperature-SVP link. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM484.1 But your answer is that the WV feedback is controlled by the aggregate large scale dynamics in tropical convection. If I have that right, do you also add the likelihood of an increased tropical region size as the world gets warmer? Are there estimates for that? Also I can not see how an energy flow equilibrium can govern water vapor. The ocean temperature buffering means that it takes years for an increase in CO2 forcing to raise global average temperature without feedback. But water vapor feedback takes hours or days at the most. The time scales are off. Just for the record, there is no such thing as conservation of energy other than over the long run at the top of the atmosphere. When there is concentrated heat somewhere like we saw this summer, there is not lack of heat elsewhere to make up for it.
  32. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    KL @ 77 - This seems to be a recurring theme with you. You have done this to death on other blogs as well I see. So the repetition is all your doing. Yes, I agree, the media and skeptic beat up of the stolen e-mails was indeed a travesty, but global warming continues, despite the "current"uncertainties in the analysis of the global energy budget. As, for the missing heat, seems unlikely to me that's it's found it's way down in the deep ocean, so quickly (no known mechanism for starters) , more likely an "accounting" error, or errors. But sure is strange how it shows good agreement until about 2005. I am genuinely curious to see how this issue is resolved though.
  33. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    Ken #77 While you insist on bringing up old arguments, perhaps you can explain why you haven't been able to deal with people's rebuttals of such adequately, for example here. Also you have completely failed to ever acknowledge issues surrounding measurement error.
  34. Anne-Marie Blackburn at 21:53 PM on 5 September 2010
    How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    johnd, I still don't see the relevance of your point. Natural factors would probably have led to cooling. Yet global temperatures are increasing, most probably because of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The rate of removal of these additional greenhouse gas emissions or seasonal variations in CO2 levels do not change the fact that an ice age is unlikely. Nor does the capacity to remove additional CO2. The analysis is based on past and current observations, not hypothetical scenarios.
  35. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    Johnd, If you don't read what the experts explain you don't understand the basics. The chart shows all the energy comes from the sun. Other sources of energy like volcanos and waste heat are negligable. The outgoing radiation equals the incoming radiation as required by conservation of energy. The increase in greenhouse gasses increases the back radiation. Increased back radiation increases surface temperature. Increased temperatures increases evaporation of water. When CO2 was lower the back radiation was lower and surface temperatures were lower. As temperature increases, humidity increases. This is a positive feedback, since water is a greenhouse gas. When do you expect solar radiation to cease? At night energy dissipates to space, during the day it accumulates. The chart shows the average for the whole day.
  36. Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!
    Thanks for all the comments. A few responses: HumanityRules: you were right - Holland and Landsea. Berényi Péter: As mentioned in the post, models predict a reduction in frequence but increase in energy. This will lead to greater landfall if correct. Dappledwater: nice one. David Horton: Thank you. I quite agree - it is strange how the burden has been shifted. More energy into a system must have an effect, and if the effect isn't the obvious one (or the slightly less obvious but logical PDI increase) it is encumbent on those promoting the disssent to validate it with data. Ned: so, to sum up then - nobody's got a bloody clue! :)
  37. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    thingadonta wrote : "Climate scientists are not going to fool skeptics with this possible recent revival of an old-age trick-denying and using uncertainty in the Earth's climate and weather as a means to social control. A completely opposite way of looking at it (the skeptical one, by the way), is that you should actually never 'cast aside' one's 'doubt of climate science'; such is the road to ideology, blind faith, and false certainty as a means to social power and control. The Aztecs and Mayans discovered it, and now 21str century ‘scientists’ have discovered it (but not the sceptical ones)." These are very skewed comments(politically and scientifically), which reveal a lot more about you and your beliefs than about global warming itself. Politically, you seem to see "social power and control" as an inherent desire of scientists and others involved with research into global warming. Apart from the "skeptics", of course - whoever they might be and however you define them, beyond your belief that anyone who doesn't like or accept global warming must, by default, be a skeptic. That would seem to include everyone from Monckton to Lindzen, and every position from 'It's all a UN, secret government conspiracy' to 'The Greenhouse theory is false' to 'Maybe the effects won't be quite so serious as some suggest'. All skeptics/skeptical but few worthy of being taken seriously. With regards to the science, you have no answers or rebuttal and can only denigrate and belittle what you define as 'scientists', who are, again, all those apart from the "skeptical" ones you like. Again, they are undefined by you and so, presumably, run the gamut from Gerlich/Tscheuschner to Singer to Lindzen. They you would no doubt call scientists without the qualifying quote marks; the rest you smear by association. I find that reprehensible and snide but you are somehow allowed to make such assertions without ever backing up your beliefs. Shameful but very revealing of your motivations, beliefs and lack of serious credibility.
  38. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    Anne-Marie Blackburn at 19:20 PM, I agree, CO2 don't drop for no reason. Just as the seasonal variation doesn't vary for no reason either. The nett global variation is greater than the total estimated human emissions, and when measured regionally the annual variations can be up to about 50ppm, but more often around 20ppm, well in excess of human emission levels, so the capacity to absorb higher levels is available if the right conditions are in place. These variations whilst large by comparison to the human emissions are small compared to the total land and ocean emissions which are about 27 times human emissions. Thus only a very small variation in the natural processes is required to make a significant difference to the nett gain or loss of CO2 from the atmosphere.
  39. Plain english rebuttal to 'Global warming isn't happening' argument
    Good post. I like the summary of the bullet points. It is too bad you have to summarize so much interesting data. In number 4 why is the stratosphere an exception? The stratosphere is a separate part of the atmosphere than the troposphere. The troposphere is predicted to warm and the stratosphere is predicted to cool. Both have been measured and are warming/cooling as predicted.
  40. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    GC @ 48 - "I see plenty of evidence to suggest that CO2 is not a major climate driver." I gotta disagree GC, the link between CO2 and global temperature goes back a long way. The last 400,000 years. 650, 000 years. 800,000 years. However if yours is a version of the CO2 lags temperature argument, see here Why does CO2 lag temperature? And it's only a forcing this time around, not a feedback, because of human greenhouse gas emissions.
  41. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    Thingadonta @8 Jacob Bronowksi was very clear in his conclusions about human history in his infamous 'Ascent of Man' series and book; if history teaches us anything, its that humans should never be too sure of themselves. Ahh, the truth is out - Climate change deniers are not human ! Perhaps they are alien beings from a hot planet planning to invade us... :-)
  42. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    DW #70 Before we get into repetition please have a look at this topic from May this year: http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=2&t=78&&n=202 Note my posts #24, #30, #60, #67 - particularly #67 I came across Dr Trenberth's paper as a result of the Climategate 'travesty' emails, and have a passing familiarity with it since late 2009. If 'the missing heat' is way down deep it got there very quickly by an unknown process DW, so don't hold your breath waiting for it to burst forth.
  43. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    @thingadonta #8 To summarize your viewpoint: you can never be sure about anything. Indeed. You can never be sure that tomorrow the laws of thermodynamics will still apply or that the sun will still rise in the east. Indeed. And you cannot eliminate this uncertainty by doing irrational things like sacrificing people. Indeed. You then suggest that this is the same as what climate scientists try to do: to take away the uncertainty with irrational hocus-pocus. That’s where you’re wrong. No science is ever completely settled. Science strives to minimize the uncertainty but a 100% certainty is not achievable. Nevertheless, in the past this hasn’t stopped us from using the laws of thermodynamics to construct cars and power plants, using the laws of electromagnetism to build cellphones, using the laws of mechanics to launch space ships. I never heard anyone demanding that the science should be settled for a 100% before using this knowledge. If we had waited, we would still be living in caves. Using the knowledge you have to your best advantage (taking into account the uncertainty that still exists) is not irrational. It is the best we can do. We don’t know absolutely everything about climate science. We know enough to act. That’s the message climate scientists try to get across.
  44. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    michael sweet @ 65 Scientists have nothing to lose if they present real data limiting adjustments only to what needs adjusting to ensure we're comparing apples with apples. I would feel far more comfortable with data showing wider divergence between well and poorly sited stations. I have no investment in the direction of the divergences. For example, if poorly sited stations in some (or even many) instances showed cooler trends (a counterintuitive result given the assumptions underpinning the surface stations project), I would happily accept this. I have no problem with all the data showing a warming trend. However, the data are so exquisitely consistent over extended periods as to seem improbable and thus implausible. Data measurement is never so utterly robust as to yield zero anomalies between a range of measurements over many years. I would liken the outcome to tossing and coin and finding it lands neither heads nor tails but stood vertically on its rim - an improbable but nevertheless possible outcome. As I've pointed out before, I may have misunderstood the derivation of the data set and if so would be very happy to stand corrected. Part of the problem lies with what I suspect is your assumption that I have raised the issue in order to push a sceptical agenda.
  45. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    JohnD, You know what the natural processes are that remove CO2 from the atmosphere. You even commented on it. As the post makes clear, ocean uptake of CO2 has profound consequences of its own; natural processes are not necessarily benign. Nor is it guaranteed to continue as it has done in the past
  46. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    jbowers: you nailed the deniers position very well: the science isn't settled, unless it's their science.
  47. Anne-Marie Blackburn at 19:20 PM on 5 September 2010
    How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    johnd, you would need evidence that in the absence of human emissions of CO2 natural processes would be removing 2ppm CO2. Before the Industrial Revolution, the system was more or less at equilibrium - natural processes weren't removing more CO2 than they were emitting. They are now only removing half of the additional CO2 humans are emitting, i.e. the CO2 which has disrupted the equilibrium. So why would you think that CO2 would be removed at similar rate without human emissions? CO2 levels don't just drop for no reason - they are usually a feedback process.
  48. Quantifying the human contribution to global warming
    Chris Colose @ 21 - A Matter of Humidity Sherwood & Dessler 2009. "Thus, although there continues to be some uncertainty about its exact magnitude, the water vapor feedback is virtually certain to be strongly positive, with most evidence supporting a magnitude of 1.5 to 2.0 W/m2/K, sufficient to roughly double the warming that would otherwise occur. To date, observational records are too short to pin down the exact size of the water vapor feedback in response to long-term warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. However, it seems unlikely that the water vapor feedback in response to long-term warming would behave differently from that observed in response to shorter-time scale climate variations. There remain many uncertainties in our simulations of the climate, but evidence for the water vapor feedback—and the large future climate warming it implies—is now strong."
  49. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    Okay, see how the title says the science isn't settled, the plastic sceptics say the alarmists say it is settled, yet Monckton says it is settled as well... It's ironic. Maybe I should have been explicit about it, but I'd have thought my stating that I agree with MattJ would have helped you figure that one out. Try the link I posted to Citizen's Challenge.
  50. Is climate science settled? Especially the important parts?
    J Bowers I hope you are being fectitious, quoting Monckton. If not, are you questioning the validity of science agreed on by 97% of climate scientists and virtually every major scientific organization in the world, and then offering Monckton as proof they are all wrong? You must be kidding. I'm sure a journalist with no science background, who claims to have invented cures for all kinds of diseases, and who tells you the earth is cooling and then tells you, the warming is due to something other than greenhouse gases, and then tells you not to worry because global warming will be benficial, is a better source than all those scientists.

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