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batsvensson at 18:15 PM on 20 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Errata to #77: the decease should be dengue, not malaria, however they are both spread to humans by mosquitoes. -
JMurphy at 18:04 PM on 20 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
batsvensson wrote : "Hopefully it should not be "stunning" to you anymore that your quoted reference says: "we ... argue that ... the importance of climate is misleading ... to understand ... emerging malaria patterns."" Well, now I'm stunned by how you think you can show so little and hide so much. To provide the full quote : However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. However ? Also ? That must relate to the previous sentence : We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. Stunning. -
JMurphy at 17:51 PM on 20 August 2010Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
Poptech spammed : "The authors don't think anything except the two who incorrectly assumed their papers were listed to deny AGW, which was explained to them repeatedly that they do not." I love it every time you admit to telling the original authors how they are wrong about their own papers; and how you love to link back to arguments from yourself. Living in denial must be wonderful - I just wish I could indulge like you do. Anyway, unfortunately for you, the consensus is against you and your little list, no matter how you interpret it for yourself. Sorry. -
cbp at 17:50 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
There's also no indication how many of the signatories actually work in a field related to their degree. As anyone who actually has a job doing anything at all will tell you - just because you're 22 years old and have a degree, doesn't mean you aren't still a complete novice. -
tobyjoyce at 17:50 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
The Oregon Petition, when it was originally mailed, had an attached scandal. As I understand it, the petition was accompanied by a document masquerading as a "scientific paper", in the style of the US PNAS with a volume number and publication date. In fact, the "facts" of the article had been published only in the Wall Street Journal. Leading denier and Marshall Institute Director Fred Seitz supplied a covering letter, which emphasized his former connections with the NAS. In short, the people who received the petition, or who read it online, were duped into believing that it was backed by the US National Academy of Science. The NAS held a press conference to disavow the petition, but on the same day Seitz had an article lauding it in the Washington Times The petition is described briefly on page 244 & 245 of Oreskes and Conway's Merchants of Doubt, and on this Wikipedia page. Oregon Petition -
JMurphy at 17:32 PM on 20 August 2010The Strange Case of Albert Gore, Inconvenient Truths and a Man in a Powdered Wig
Saying that the case was brought by a 'school governor', makes it seem far more innocent than this case actually was. See Wikipedia for details about the right-wing New Party, secret funding and the involvement of our favourite so-called skeptic...the merry Monckton ! And it was a judicial review in the Administrative Court of the Queen's Bench Division of the High Court, which thought it not fit to go forward to a full judicial review hearing with one or more judges. -
Bern at 16:58 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
RSVP: Perhaps property values in and around Hazelwood and Yallourn might be relevant. Or how about downtown Miami in about 50-90 years? Better hope you bought that apartment above the ground floor, and included a boat hoist on the balcony... :-P But seriously: that's a bit of a red herring, not to mention some rather flawed logic! "Nuclear disasters caused by disabled safeguards on 1960s vintage reactors are bad, ergo all non-fossil energy is bad" -
Doug Bostrom at 16:32 PM on 20 August 2010NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
The points are in the post up above, JohnD, and they're not really mine. Dither away about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, it's of course your personal choice to do so. Meanhile, grownups will look after the mess. Pakistan floods 'slow-motion tsunami' - UN chief -
ubrew12 at 16:23 PM on 20 August 2010The Strange Case of Albert Gore, Inconvenient Truths and a Man in a Powdered Wig
I agree with paulm (12) that Gore should update his film. Talk openly about the 'warming leading CO2' brouhaha, the hockey-stick, and our better understanding of consequences. Honestly, the possibilities are much grimmer, now, then when he published. His particular gravitas and delivery work well to communicate this subject, and his detractors can hardly be motivated to hate him more than they already do. But there could be something oddly cathartic about such a revisit. I sense that everyone in America, skeptics included, is now aware that 'something' is going on. Placing Gore in their faces would be a way of teaching that sometimes when you personalize an argument for egos sake, the victim is you and your young ones, not the target of your vituperation. This country could use fewer freedom fries, and a bit more humble pie in its diet. -
Kevin Hood at 16:05 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
To clarify just a bit: having a BS degree in Mathematics or Computer Science certainly gains one credibility to a degree in those fields; however, it is no guarantee of any degree of expertise in climatology. -
Kevin Hood at 15:57 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
When I was sent the petition and encouraged to sign it, I was surprised at how low the bar was for being a scientist. The petition noted that any Bachelor's of Science major counted and provided examples including Mathematics and Computer Science. The petition was also structured such that its intent was unclear and hard to extract. I would guess that some signers simply trusted whoever sent it, added their names and clicked OK. -
Doug Bostrom at 15:57 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
Eric144, do you really imagine that labeling Hansen and a myriad of his colleagues as "environmentalists" is a substitute for an argument, has any hope of effectively rebutting their scientific findings? The problem with your internal blending of science with politics is that politics has no explanatory power when it comes to figuring out how climate functions. Your political bent is entirely divorced from climate research, physics and the rest of science. What you say as an amateur politician talking about environmentalists on a blog has no descriptive power for understanding the natural world. You may of course make up anything you like with regard to politics, but if you're not careful you're likely to blurt out certain things that can be tested against physical facts. For instance, explanations of how climate works must necessarily be coherent with a vastly larger realm of scientific understanding. Hansen's scientific research fits coherently into an interconnected web of broader scientific knowledge. If you say "Hansen's research is wrong because he's concerned about the environment and says so," you're not only saying Hansen is incorrect while failing to describe why, you're claiming that many other things we know to be true of the natural world are also false, are supposed to somehow be obedient to your politics. By so doing you're not only failing to address Hansen's scientific research, you're making yourself look conspicuously ridiculous. If you're claiming science is wrong stick with talking about science, if you want to be taken seriously. -
RSVP at 15:46 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
"No evidence has ever been offered to support the first statement." Perhaps property values in and around Chernobyl might help. -
gallopingcamel at 15:26 PM on 20 August 2010What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
Ooops!, I meant Shelley as in Percival Byshe. -
gallopingcamel at 15:25 PM on 20 August 2010What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
RSVP, You are the man! The human race is so full of its own self importance. A hundred million years from now we will be extinct, the planet will be just fine and it will be really hard to find any sign that mankind even existed. Shelly understood when he wrote Ozymandias. -
batsvensson at 15:17 PM on 20 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
JMurphy, Kenya. Now you got me started... If you carefully ready your own quotation you will find it says: "we ... argue that ... the importance of climate is misleading ... to understand ... emerging malaria patterns." Perhaps for you to realize that this is what they actually say is "stunning" and perhaps it is due to an ignorance of medical science relation to metrology you can not accept that this is what they really say. If that is the case, bear with me now: It is known that Hippocrates attributed deceases only to physical events and not supernatural entities. He stressed the importance to understand the effect of climate, air, water and location to understand deceases. Metrological phenomena has ever since then been believed to have an effect on human health in western medicine - this is (among many other medical terms) concealed in the name of malaria. A name that is derivable from Greek as meaning "bad air". Hippocrates ideas tied medical studies not only to involving the heavens and the gods but also to involve the studies of weather. The correlations with the heaven started to break down when the great plagues started to roam in Europe and the relation to the star and decease outbreak was not so clear any more, however the relation to weather still prevailed. The birth of modern science in the 17th century and the discovery of physical laws lead philosopher to search for laws governing the spread of deceases, geographical data was collected about population density and locations of deceases was registred. The origin of 'statistics' can be traced back to this era as structured method was needed to understand deceases. The discovery of pattern lead to sanitary rules – fresh air and water and the need to separate the sick from the healthy - to prevent decease to spread. The old practice of taking notes of weather still remained - until mid 19th century. In this era epidemiology was born. In the late 19th century collecting weather data in order to understand and prevent decease was completely separated from the medical studies and branched to it own separate field which today is know as meteorology, which main activities has become to be prediction in contrast to its old purpose of prevention. In this period medical studies had completely lost interest in collecting and relating weather data to deceases and instead started to focus on identifying and prevent decease agents when the germ theory was discovered. In the mid 20th century lifestyle was added to the old environmental factors as air, water and location for understanding deceases. In the late 20th century weather, or rather climate, again makes in entry into decease studies and the circle seams to have closed on it self. However by the now almost 150 years separated from metrology an important different remains between the two fields: while the purpose of metrology is to predict the purpose of medical studies is to prevent. Now, having this in mind, consider this case: Between 1980 and 1996 there has been 50 thousand documented cases of malaria in the border area between Mexico and Texas - registered in Mexico. However only 100 cases was reported on the Texas side. (All figures are recall from memory – so said with reservations.) If you insist in the belief that the relation between temperature and spread of malaria is an important factor and it can be predicted with climate models then you will have a hard time to explain the above case. On the other hand if you believe decease studies is not about predicting deceases with climate models but preventing them by eliminating risk factors in air, water, location and lifestyle then the above case is pretty trivial to explain. Hopefully it should not be "stunning" to you anymore that your quoted reference says: "we ... argue that ... the importance of climate is misleading ... to understand ... emerging malaria patterns." -
gallopingcamel at 15:16 PM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
Probably the most important issue in the ongoing climate debate is that of "Feedbacks". James Wright buys into the (majority) view that the feedbacks are positive. Right now the range of feedback estimates is so wide that the models are worthless when it comes to prediction or even explaining past climate. For the moment, one scientist's guess is as good as another's. -
David Horton at 15:12 PM on 20 August 2010The Strange Case of Albert Gore, Inconvenient Truths and a Man in a Powdered Wig
TOP, do you not see that the denier movement is also "political"? That, indeed, preventing the acceptance of the science and the necessary action is a far more political act than simply making the reality of the science available to a larger audience and leaving them to make up their mind about the politics involved? -
mothincarnate at 15:10 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
I know - just having a little chuckle :-) -
giniajim at 15:09 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
Have there been any efforts to verify the names and qualifications on the "petition"? As John suggests, it might be interesting to go back and see how many of the respondents have now changed their mind. -
thingadonta at 15:08 PM on 20 August 2010Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
#20 dhogaza Actually there was a bit of other early evidence for continental drift as well. (I've got a copy of Wegener's original book on continental drift-its a good read-you can get it on Amazon). -stratigraphic (both fossil and rock)correlations between the Americas and Africa-Europe, and numerous other places. There is a few other strange ideas in the book, but can't remember them at the moment. A globe with a sliding outer skin isnt a very common daily observance, so it took a while for such an idea to sink in, when various geophysics etc backed it up. -
David Horton at 15:06 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
Nova has no interest in understanding it - reality is not what she is about. -
mothincarnate at 15:00 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
This is good - it might now be in a language Nova can understand.. -
John Chapman at 14:26 PM on 20 August 2010The Oregon Petition: How Many Scientists Does It Take To Change A Consensus?
If one looks at the petition document that individuals sign there is no record or entry of the date. (http://www.oism.org/pproject/GWPetition.pdf) The petition has been going for a decade or so and one wonders how many would change their tune since those early days in the climate debate? -
johnd at 14:26 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
KR at 13:18 PM, the data in your "spurious example" is rather suspect. Pirates, at least in SE Asia, would number rather many more than the graph indicates and numbers are probably rising, especially as each financial crisis cycles through the region. Of course theses days instead of a fully rigged and crewed sailing ship with cannons poking out on all sides, a couple of blokes in a speedboat with a war surplus firearm, and perhaps even some ammunition, can still make a good living from a low cost operation targeting other small boats,tug boats, smugglers, drug runners etc. Some small fishing villages are renown as pirate lairs that drug runners and smugglers try best to avoid. :-) -
scaddenp at 14:11 PM on 20 August 2010Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
Poptech - you can insist to you are blue in face that E&E is "peer reviewed". I'll go with the "trade" designation. Publishing there has to be a career-damaging move. If you want objective measure of science community judgement on E&E, then perhaps you should look at its journal impact ranking. (good luck actually because I couldnt even find one for it). -
scaddenp at 14:07 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
eric - I pointed you the skepticsci page not because of the article itself but because it was a convenient pointer to the papers published about the subject. Kirkby may be right - but the point was, even if he IS right, it still doesnt help explain current climate. The papers on that article deal with limitations on any real world response to cloud formation from GCR. I am all for Kirkby doing his experiments though. Read the concluding remarks in McShane or Wyner? Several commentators have also pointed to a problem with their analysis already but lets wait to both paper and responses are published. Also, note proxies are hardly used to "predict" climate. You can check whether current best models can reproduce past proxy temperatures from proxy forcings but you would guess correctly that this is more useful to check for invalidation than anything else given the uncertainties. Climate prediction is based purely on physics. -
Bern at 13:59 PM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
scaddenp: yep, orbital forcings affect distribution of solar radiation - but they don't change the total amount. And, yes, land/ocean distribution would also be a significant factor, even if not (directly) a forcing. They'd still generate feedback forcings, though (e.g. albedo changes to due cloud / ice / vegetation cover). Meteor impacts certainly would kick up a lot of (short-lived) aerosols, but can also result in enormous greenhouse gas kicks, depending on what type of rock is hit, and how much organic matter burns / decomposes as a result of the short-term effects. This may provide a nudge that pushes the global climate from a relatively stable state into a transition state. -
The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
I checked a bit more, Berényi - and found that "Of all large whales, the bowhead whale is the most adapted to life in icy cold water". Posting a bowhead whale skull as evidence for a warmer Arctic is both meaningless and misleading - they like it cold, and live in the Arctic year round. -
Is the sun causing global warming?
johnd - Correlation is not causation. I would in fact refer you to this enjoyable yet spurious example... Unless you can hypothesize a reasonable physical interaction (I've yet to see any) wherein solar magnetic strength or cosmic ray patterns actual affect global surface temperatures (and I believe that no such direct correlation or interaction has been shown), it's at best an interesting correlation without causation. Clouds and formation rates would probably be your best bet there, but current consensus appears to be that clouds (which show a slight inverse relationship to temperatures over the last 60 years) have only a weak effect on global temps. -
TOP at 13:17 PM on 20 August 2010The Strange Case of Albert Gore, Inconvenient Truths and a Man in a Powdered Wig
Looks like my comments related to post #7 got pulled during the day so I'll tone them down. The judge seems to be saying that the film is being used for political purposes. There have been other politicians that have used science and technology for political ends. Political uses of science such as Gore is doing tend to create a situation where science can be codified into law. This is against science. What if spontaneous generation had been somehow written into law. Gore is not a good spokesperson precisely because he is a politician. -
muoncounter at 13:14 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
#34: "Near-Earth variations in the solar wind, measured by the geomagnetic aa index " If you want to compare temperatures to the solar wind, why not look to ACE SWEPAM for actual solar wind data? The solar wind is only one component in the very complicated interplanetary magnetic field. From spaceweather: "When Bz is south, that is, opposite Earth's magnetic field, the two fields link up," explains Christopher Russell, a Professor of Geophysics and Space Physics at UCLA. "You can then follow a field line from Earth directly into the solar wind" -- or from the solar wind to Earth. South-pointing Bz's open a door through which energy from the solar wind can reach Earth's atmosphere! "I find the expectations of many punters here towards correlation perplexing. There seems to be a requirement for any proposed influence to show almost total correlation before it will be acknowledged as being even relevant." No argument there, but on this site, it is usually the deniers who quote 'corrleation isn't causality' when presented with correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature or ice melt or any of the other things we talk about. -
How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
Eric - positive (and negative) feedbacks with an absolute value < 1.0 damp out. Feedbacks > 1.0 absolute value are un-physical; they would increase infinitely, requiring an infinite amount of energy to do so. Here's a post on feedbacks, also here, which I wrote a while back - these may give you some idea on how these work, and how they taper out after a fixed amplification/dampening of the initial forcing. -
TOP at 13:03 PM on 20 August 20101934: the 47th hottest year on record
Dr. Masters considers the phenomenon that led to 1934 and the currently ended Russian heat wave to be the same. It has to do with a polar jet stream the "gets stuck" farther south than usual. If you look at the temperature anomaly map there was an equally cold area to the east of the hot area. A friend in the North of England complained to me of unusually cool temperatures while the heat wave was going on in Russia. The heat wave is cherry picking if it is used to support AGW until further analysis is done. -
The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Berényi - I believe that 1-2°C global (as per 125,000 years ago) translates to 2-4°C or more in the Arctic. I would love a fact check from someone who has actual expertise in this (Pete Hogarth, for example), though. I don't know what the normal range of bowhead whales is - but there are multiple whale species present in the Arctic and Antarctic year round. Sorry - I don't consider this evidence in either direction. Current Greenland mass behavior seems to indicate a transition point, however, as is evident in the graph I posted in #38. -
johnd at 12:46 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
muoncounter at 12:04 PM, the abstract for the paper you extracted the graph from begins:- "Near-Earth variations in the solar wind, measured by the geomagnetic aa index since 1868, are closely correlated with global temperature ( r = 0.96; P < 10-7)." However it then on focused on only the northern hemisphere whilst acknowledging that the differences between the temperatures and trends of both hemispheres. Regarding correlation, some correlation is obviously necessary before scientists can begin investigation for any physical link. I find the expectations of many punters here towards correlation perplexing. There seems to be a requirement for any proposed influence to show almost total correlation before it will be acknowledged as being even relevant. This would be appropriate if the weather or climate only responded to one forcing. However the weather is a result of a large number of different forces of varying magnitudes and origins that variously oppose or amplify other competing forces to give the weather of the day, or the season, as winter and summer demonstrate. At certain times one particular force will dominate, at other times others will. Only when all these forces are fully understood will the weather be able to be modeled successfully, but we are not there yet. Similarly with the climate, there are many processes that are far from being understood, clouds, and solar winds being just two such processes. So dismissing any such process just because the correlation is not total seems rather premature to me. -
Trueofvoice at 12:39 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
Eric144, The problem with accepting Kirkby's work as factual is a simple one: it hasn't been replicated. Mann's work, by contrast, has been confirmed by repeated independent studies. I'd like to know why you find Kirkby more credible than any climatologist. My guess is he confirms your existing bias, but I'm willing to hear your argument. Stating that his work must be right as it gets funding from a big scientific organization is self-refuting, because the scientists you don't like (Mann, Hansen, Trenberth) also get funding from top scientific bodies. By your logic their work must also be correct. -
eric144 at 12:21 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
doug_bostrom at 10:13 AM on 20 August, 2010 Kirkby's work shows that the science is not settled. I am conflating scientists and environmentalists because that is how the NASA/Hansen/Schmidt/Mann axis behaves. Even Pielke Jr and Hulme are committed environmentalists and they are supposed to be skeptics. "Well, well; correlation isn't causality? And yet the deniersphere clings to Svensmark's hypothesis? Isn't that ironic... " I'm sorry, what is a deniersphere ? Is it something little children play in ? That's what it sounds like to me. I'm glad I'm not a gamma minus. The CERN experiments are being done to explore the mechanism of cloud formation . scaddenp You are comparing sceptical science, a blog behind which there is no expertise, with a highly credible physicist like Kirkby. I would be surprised if there were any non sceptical, independent, individual physicists. Forgetting representative, political bodies. -
scaddenp at 12:07 PM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
Eric, there are a lot of ways to assess climate sensitivity. The commonest is direct calculation from model output (which comes out at around 3) but ECS may be higher has AR4 models dont track carbon feedbacks. This is ONLY about physical causes. IPCC WG1 has a section on estimating sensitivity from past response to forcing with many papers. Annan and Hargreaves just one of many different approaches. Necessarily, uncertainties are high. Annan at least uses an approach to limit the upper end. -
muoncounter at 12:04 PM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
BTW, if this graph is correct, aa to temperature is not even that good of a correlation.
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muoncounter at 11:59 AM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
#24: "the solar coronal magnetic field strength as indicated by the aa geomagnetic index, " Interesting. The aa index is clearly increasing [see figure 3 in the linked paper]. If you believe that aa is correlated with global temperature, then you must necessarily admit that the earth is in fact warming. But correlation? As the denialists always ask, what does that prove? -
johnd at 11:55 AM on 20 August 2010NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
doug_bostrom at 10:26 AM, what is the point you are trying to make? 1. 300 mm of rain in 36 hours has never before happened anywhere in the world at any time in recorded history, or 2. 300mm of rain in 36 hours only ever falls where it impacts adversely upon humans, or 3. if that occurs, the effects are worse if they have not been subjected to such an event for a very long time. The definition of denialist confines it's use to political debates, so you can continue to correctly use it with confidence in the political aspect of any debates you pursue. "denialist noun one who denies an assertion in a controversial political debate. usage note: This is usually used by those who make the assertion, or by those who implicitly hold the assertion to be true, of others. It is rarely used self-descriptively." http://www.allwords.com/word-denialist.html -
muoncounter at 11:50 AM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
#22: "CERN would not be spending huge amounts of money funding Kirkby unless they believed the research potentially highly fruitful." Oh, I don't know how true that is. I've been in and around particle physics projects for the last 6+ years; projects get funded and take on a life of their own. The original CLOUD proposals date back to 2000. Here's an interesting comment on CERN's experiment vis a vis Svensmark: Bent Sørensen, an environmental physicist at Roskilde University Centre in Denmark, believes Svensmark's paper lacks real evidence. "It's an interesting proposal for research, which is why CERN will try to acquire the knowledge that is lacking, " says Sørensen, "but I feel there's a large gap between finding statistical correlations with some assumptions and having a causal correlation or even a physical correlation." Well, well; correlation isn't causality? And yet the deniersphere clings to Svensmark's hypothesis? Isn't that ironic... -
batsvensson at 11:44 AM on 20 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
johnd, No. It is much more complex than that. -
Eric (skeptic) at 11:39 AM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
From Weart, Annan, Hargreaves 2006 uses a probabilistic argument to estimate sensitivity from two observable variables, forcing and temperature. Using both negative and positive forcings and corresponding temperature changes, they calculate ranges of sensitivities and most likely values. No discussion of what physically causes those limits. Weart also mentions Lindzen's theory of self-regulating climate. Then he dismisses it by saying "...climate experts (aside from Lindzen and a few followers) were now nearly certain that serious global warming was underway". Apparently Weart believes (1) "serious" global warming is a reality rather than just a model result and (2) the "seriousness" of global warming means that Lindzen's theory of self-regulation is wrong. Can't find "Climate Models and Their Evaluation" at ipoc.ch where Weart says it is. I did find this http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/expert-meeting-assessing-multi-model-projections-2010-01.pdf but haven't finished reading it. -
scaddenp at 11:06 AM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
Bern, just to nit pick, orbital variations are about variation primarily to distribution of solar radiation. The effect is dependent on land/sea distribution so going back in time, the changing plate configuration is also a factor in climate. Meteor impacts I would say are mostly aerosol in effect? -
HumanityRules at 11:05 AM on 20 August 20101934: the 47th hottest year on record
Since you're talking percentages. What % of the globes surface where humans recording temperature in 1934? If that was say 20% does that make it any more valid than the cherrypicking by the deniers? -
scaddenp at 11:01 AM on 20 August 2010Temp record is unreliable
BP - apologies. I have taken time I don't really have to read the GHCN documentation. The raw file should indeed be the thermometer readings as received from custodian corrected only for scale. If the individual data from environment Canada dont match individual data from GHCN, then you do have a case for asking why not. However, averaging isnt meaningful without methodology for the average. Is difference in the individual stations or in the averaging method? I note that GHCN rejects station data for which the raw data for homogenization correction is not available, so in principle, you should be able to find all that. Since you think the adjustments must be wrong, then pick the station with highest adjustment and get the homogenization data for that. Repeat the procedure in Petersen et al -
scaddenp at 10:55 AM on 20 August 2010Is the sun causing global warming?
Good luck to Kirkby - he might find something interesting. However, EVEN if GCR DO have a part to play in cloud formation, phenomenological studies would suggest the effect is weak and given the non-trend in GCR flux, it cant be responsible for current warming. -
Doug Bostrom at 10:37 AM on 20 August 2010How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
Thingadonta stops being serious when he mentions Al Gore. Stick with the science, Thingadonta.
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