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Doug Bostrom at 04:01 AM on 18 August 2010Heat stress: setting an upper limit on what we can adapt to
D, all very interesting speculations leaving a myriad of important details unaddressed. Have we got a grip on providing decent living standards for people situated where they live today? If we don't, why would we believe we can relocate hundreds of millions of people and end up with an improvement? Is something about human nature going to change in way that makes such an enormous upheaval and migration feasible, desirable? Anyway, your remarks leave a bigger question hanging in the air. Why set such a course? Why would we do such a thing if we don't have to? -
Heat stress: setting an upper limit on what we can adapt to
Canada and Russia are almost empty countries and seem likely to become more hospitable. The northern half of the USA, and its west coast, could possibly warm 6 degrees and still be more habitable than Florida (hot, humid) today. While the USA's not "almost empty", it has <10% the population density of many European countries. It needs a change in mentality. People might have to move country, and countries that believe they have a right to sprawl might have to accept European-style small-scale, space-efficient living - whether this be narrow streets, public transport or row houses. As far as I am aware, the entire world could move to Canada (3 people per km2) and it would still be ... about as densely-populated than England or the Netherlands are today (500 people per km2). I'm not proposing this, but matters might not be as bad as we think, if northern countries with space are willing to let some people in. Europe has some very underpopulated countries; e.g., France, Sweden, Finland. Surely there's space here for 50-100 million climate refugees? I live in the UK which is contemplating a rise in population from 60 million to 70 million by 2050. If this is possible, I fail to understand objections from other cool countries to admitting more people. -
Paul D at 03:25 AM on 18 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
huntjanin: "I can't believe that there will be absolutely NO benefits, anywhere in the world, as a result of sea level rise. Might not some river ports become seaports?" Possible, but then some will be lost as well or very difficult to defend. I don't think one can really say that relocating many millions of people away from flooded coastal cities as being positive. Another problem with increasing sea levels is that salt water makes it's way further up a river causing all sorts of problems. -
JMurphy at 02:34 AM on 18 August 2010NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
Argus wrote : "I am very open for the addition of possible new local (state) records within the U.S. (I did write 'so far'.) I just didn't find any such records where I looked (www.infoplease.com). Way to go, Delaware and Rhode Island!" Did you miss this bit : The persistence of this pattern over the last several months has resulted in the warmest May-July on record for several east coast states from South Carolina to New Hampshire. Have a look at the rest of the NOAA report for July for more details, and to pick other months this year to find more possible records. -
cbrock at 02:24 AM on 18 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Minor technical correction to the post--"vegitation" is a misspelling. Otherwise I agree it reads very smoothly and hits the important points without too much detail. The nuances belong in the "blue" section. -
LewisC at 02:14 AM on 18 August 2010Three new studies illustrate significant risks and complications with geoengineering climate
Batsvensson - your sarcasm is misplaced - particularly in a forum dedicated to rational discussion - if you were to read my posts you'd find no support for the use of sulphate aerosols. What you would find are some of the argumants why Geo-E is now essential to avoid otherwise inevitable catastrophic climate destabilization. You'd do better to address those arguments that to attack a position I don't hold. Regards, Lewis -
muoncounter at 02:13 AM on 18 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
#18: "ports that are now on rivers but which, thanks to rising sea levels, might eventually become seaports." I wonder how that's going to be beneficial. Consider the industrial infrastructure in place on the lower Mississippi River and for that matter, all of coastal Louisiana. Here's a snip from a report written in 2006: The technological infrastructure of the petrochemical industry in the Gulf Coast has become more vulnerable in recent years for several reasons. Declining global crude oil and natural gas reserves have rendered supply chains more tenuous and less flexible. Storms have struck the area with increasing ferocity and frequency. And in 2009: "With rising sea levels, subsidence, and catastrophic storms such as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike, the risk to coastal communities and the critical economic, energy and navigation infrastructure upon which the nation depends is incalculable." In short, rising sea level is a looming disaster along that coast. You won't be able to just pick up oil refineries, pipeline hubs, natural gas compression and processing plants, etc and move them upriver. What will happen to million bbl per day that move through the LOOP? The onshore terminal at Port Fourchon is shown as having an elevation of 0 ft. I supposed this would be considered by some as 'alarmist,' but 'alarm' has an implicit sense of urgency; these concerns have been talked about for years -- and still we do nothing. -
Argus at 01:55 AM on 18 August 2010NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
JMurphy at 01:53 AM on 17 August, 2010, I am very open for the addition of possible new local (state) records within the U.S. (I did write 'so far'.) I just didn't find any such records where I looked (www.infoplease.com). Way to go, Delaware and Rhode Island! The problem is still that if there will be any new state records this year, USA will still contribute with just 0 km² to the total area, according to the metrics of Dr. Jeff Masters. Unless the national record from Death Valley is also beaten (unlikely), in which case all 9372614 km² will suddenly be added to the total land area that has experienced all-time high. -
Argus at 01:35 AM on 18 August 2010NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
michael sweet at 00:44 AM on 17 August, 2010: So you think it is OK to claim that 19% of the total land area of Earth has experienced all time heat records, when more than half of this land area (11.5%) is based on one record somewhere in Russia? You find that "helpful". I find it misleading. Criticizing someone who has done the work without providing an alternate method of analysis does not advance understanding at all. Read again! I did provide a possible alternate method of analysis. -
Mikemcc at 00:46 AM on 18 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
One minor point, in the polar melting section surely albedo is dealing with reflection of visible light (mainly),rather than heat. So a lower albedo means more energy is absorbed in the ground to be re-radiated as heat? -
Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
RSVP - I can't let the statement "the more GHG, the more overall absorption and the more emission, therefore the more global cooling" slide by. That statement is completely, absolutely incorrect! You are, for some reason, ignoring the word "absorption", the input side of the equation. Additional GHG's increase the ability of the atmosphere to heat, and yes to cool, via IR. The global and atmospheric effect, however, is that IR on it's way to space is intercepted, re-radiated spherically distributed, causing half of it to go back down, thus reducing the IR to space, and therefore warming the global system. And in the process warming the atmosphere. All three (earth/air/water) are warmer due to GHG's. Not cooler! Increased GHG's raise the ability of air to cool via IR - but at the cost of raising its ability to heat via IR, with a net effect of heating the atmosphere and everything under it. -
Ned at 23:34 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
The standard deviation of both surface and satellite trends is presumably larger than 0.01C/decade. But right now the best estimates of each are less than 0.01C/decade apart (both are 0.16C/decade). Obviously there's a certain element of coincidence in that, and next year they could be 0.15 and 0.17, or vice versa. But the fact that the current observed trends are identical rather nicely contradicts claims (as in Doug Proctor's comment in this thread) that they're diverging. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 23:30 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
The violent weather phenomena are correlated only with the equally rapid cooling common at the end of long (always quiet) and rapid warming, often at the end of strong and violent El Nino (perfect example is the beginning of LIA, and the last: 1997 / 8; 2010 - the end of a strong El Nino - heat waves and floods, for example in Europe). Altithermal: "... warmest period during the last 75,000 years ..." „The palynological studies (ie, fossil pollen) that boreal coniferous forests (taiga), western Siberia and Canada, then stretched approximately 300 km further north, and so occupied areas, has completely treeless (tundra), but now overgrown with grass, shrubs and moss. Ocean water temperature was higher in some areas by up to 6 ° C above today's, oceans steamed so strongly, resulting in increased humidity. Increased rainfall filled to the brim Saharan pools and lakes, and Lake Chad, for example, took on the size of a real sea, spilling an area comparable to today's Caspian Sea [!!!]. Then it just became a green Sahara and the Middle East. Great rock rites and paintings testify, to the fact that these areas are rich with life and lived on them typical fauna - for today's, of the African savannah.” (author: dr. Ryszkiewicz; translation - unfortunately - my) Altithermal - the SH geological period might have been even warmer than the Eemian - Sangamon. It turns out that only in this period - from several million-year - part of the Atacama desert was green. If this is what I wrote above, and others "deny", it is really a picture of the disaster, it is a picture of a particularly "beautiful" disaster ... Described in the IPCC's fourth report: "increasing the number of violent climatic events", refer only to a further warming of 0.5 - 1 deg. C (maximum of 1.5 deg. C). Response to climate warming is not linear. -
TOP at 23:07 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
The Weizmann Institute in Israel has proposed reforesting the Sahara desert. This is possible because of higher CO2 levels caused by human activity and sufficient water in the area to maintain a reforestation activity for 200 years. Higher CO2 levels allow certain species of trees to prosper with less water. The finding that higher CO2 levels can cause a forest in an arid zone to grow better was a result of studies of the Yatir forest in the Negev. Such a project may be able to absorb all man made green house CO2. In addition the food and building material from such a project would help meet the growing needs of Africa and the rest of the world. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 22:35 PM on 17 August 2010Did global warming stop in 1998? (basic version)
"... does not challenge the conclusion that human activity drives climate change." - and if I and the aforementioned (through me) of scientists - with the great achievements - a lot of significant - “pre-reviewed” - the papers, we agreed with that. We disagree only on the actual "severity - weight " Human activity drives in relation to natural climate variability (estimated by IV IPCC report) - and looking at the "flat" trend in the last decade, especially in the tropics, it seems to us that we have “full” right ..., ... and S. Solomon says: it might really we (maybe) have “partly” right... - this is a small, but - comparison the last period - great progress towards an agreement. -
CBDunkerson at 22:16 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Chriscanaris #7, whether the recent flooding in Pakistan was 'caused' by climate change is irrelevant to the point at hand... it was precisely the kind of flooding which climate change is projected to cause. It's effects have NOT been beneficial. Ergo, a relevant example of the kinds of problems climate driven flooding would cause. BTW, I find the whole 'we cannot say whether climate change "caused" weather event X or not' argument nonsensical. Weather occurs within a climate. If the climate changes significantly then ALL weather which occurs is, in some part, 'caused' by those new climate conditions. Without them the weather WOULD have been different. Could the weather have been 'better' or 'worse'? Sure, it is still weather, with a large degree of natural variability. Thus, in one sense a weather event can only be said to be 'caused' by climate change if it is SO extreme that it falls outside the bounds of what was possible under the previous climate conditions (a situation which we are now approaching), but in another sense ALL weather we are experiencing is 'caused' by climate change because it is all dependent on the current climate. When that weather includes more 'extreme weathers events' than normal then we very much CAN say that climate change has "caused" an increase in such events. -
Berényi Péter at 22:15 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
#27 Ned at 21:02 PM on 17 August, 2010 I do think it's pretty neat that the RSS temperature trend matches the GISS, NOAA, and HADCRUT surface temperature trends to the nearest 0.01C per decade ... Come on, get real. Exaggerated claims do not help us understand what's going on. With an RMS error of ~4°C of individual satellite temperature "measurements", as a rule of thumb, it would require about 16,000 statistically independent data points in a decade to bring the error margin down to 0.01°C. And only if the error is unbiased noise, which, considering the procedure applied (model fitting) is unlikely. -
RSVP at 22:14 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Arkadiusz Semczyszak 25 You will find sea shells incrusted in calcified rocks not too far from Carpatheans (Ojcow). This land was all under the ocean at one point in time. -
Ned at 21:41 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
Pete Ridley writes: You should also read his latest article “Top Climate Scientists Speak out on the Satellitegate Scandal” [...] It might be interesting to have a discussion about the current state of the international constellation of earth observing satellites. Working in this field myself I have strong opinions about this issue. But Mr O'Sullivan's column isn't really a good place to begin that kind of conversation, because of the way it's saturated with lurid and inflammatory claims of fraud, deception, etc. -
Berényi Péter at 21:33 PM on 17 August 2010Temp record is unreliable
One more piece of the puzzle. If DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) Centre for Ocean and Ice is visited, a very cool melt season can be noticed this year north of the 80° parallel (compared to the 1958-2002 average). It went below freezing two weeks ago (with the sun up in the sky 7×24 hours a week) and stayed there consistently. This is unheard of since measurements started.
Melt season is defined here as the period when 1958-2002 average is above freezing. It is 65 days, from 13 June to 16 August.
One wonders how exceptional this weather might be.
Therefore I have recovered average melt season temperatures for the high Arctic from the DMI graphs for the last 53 years. This is what it looks like:
It is pretty stable up to about 1992. Then, after a brief warming (a tipping point?) it dives into a rather scary, accelerating downward trend. So no, this year is not exceptional, just an extension of the last two decades.
It may even be consistent with recent ice loss of the Arctic Basin, because lower temperatures mean higher pressure, a predominantly divergent surface wind pattern around the Pole, hence increased export of ice to warmer periphery. Of course with further cooling this trend is expected to turn eventually.
However, there is one thing this downward trend is surely inconsistent with. It is the upward trend reported by e.g. GISS (US National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Goddard Institute for Space Studies) and the computational climate models it is calibrated to, of course.
This conflict should be resolved.
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Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 21:30 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Glaciers as a water source - in Poland - for students - I explained it this way: when Poland was a year-long glacier in the Carpathians, the water is our main Vistula river were similar (in the flow) to the current supply of its very small - a tiny river: Wisłok .. . The amount of water in the soil would (a year-long glacier in the Carpathians) then be about 10 times smaller. The area of the Poland, could feed population of Lapland, at most, and not present Poland ... Rain water (saturation curve) increase the amount of groundwater to an extent significantly greater compared with the "power" of the glaciers. With overcapacity compensate for losses arising after the disappearance of the glacier. Tibet was a land of "vibrant green" ... - during the early Holocene Optimum, when the glaciers in the Himalayas retreated by more than 3 -5 km farther than today ... So this is where the "over-trust" for "gray references - literature" by the WHO, WWF; and another formal - informal, ecological "green" organization’s ... The only danger of global warming are such that: decreasing the desert can take care of the areas where they are not ..., can move to areas where a lot of people now living. -
Ned at 21:27 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
Pete, actually that's not particularly interesting. Mr O'Sullivan doesn't seem to understand some fundamental problems with his original claims: (1) The satellite-based global mean temperature record doesn't even use the same sensor as the Coastwatch project (the former use microwave radiometers, the latter uses a thermal infrared imager). (2) As Alden Griffith noted way up at the top of the thread, neither UAH nor RSS uses any data from NOAA-16, the satellite in question. In other words, there's absolutely no connection whatsoever between the occasional errors in the NOAA Coastwatch-funded Great Lakes temperature maps and the global mean temperature records cited as confirmatory evidence of climate change. They are completely unrelated data sets. In any case, regardless of whether Mr O'Sullivan understands it, I'm sure you get this point now, right? It's not like the problems with Mr O'Sullivan's claims are obscure or subtle. -
Pete Ridley at 21:06 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
I'm sure that you'll be interested in what the author of the original article about the satellite problems, John O'Sullivan, has to say about this thread's article and comments QUOTE: Thanks! Just saw the link-its deliberate misinformation-it keeps referring to the same BS, "The Great Lakes Coastwatch data are likewise not merged with any of the global mean temperature records produced by NASA, NOAA, the University of East Anglia, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, or others." I don't doubt that the secondary Great Lakes Coastwatch data isn't not fed into other data sets-that's not the issue. The issue is the failure of the SOURCE of the data-NOAA-16.-the RAW data was corrupted before Coastwatch got it. That's why the satellite was taken off commission. The RAW data from NOAA-16 is as "degraded" as the sensor. NOAA has been selling their "degraded" data products to national and international researchers knowing it was junk at least since 2005/6 as affirmed by the evidence given to me by Dr Spencer and Dr Christy and others. No reports of any system 'Degradation" on the sensors appears on the official NOAA-16 Subsystem Summary. Interestingly I've been tipped off that the link in my article to NOAA's subsystem summary page is broken-evidently NOAA has not only removed the satellite's images last week from the web after publication of my first 'satellitegate' article, its now removed the official subsystem summary in the exact same circumstance- its panicking that the wider public will see the obvious fraud. As for SkepticalScience, all I can say is they are VERY desperate to try that obvious trick. Please pass this info on in to others in case any one buys the BS they're peddling. UNQUOTE. You should also read his latest article “Top Climate Scientists Speak out on the Satellitegate Scandal” at http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/26603 Best regards, Pete Ridley -
Ned at 21:02 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
Re: BP's posts in this thread: Neither Spencer & Christy nor Remote Sensing Systems uses a neural network in their processing of MSU/AMSU measurements. Both the UAH and RSS methods have been scrutinized pretty carefully at this point, and S&C of course have a personal inclination towards the "skeptic" camp. The actual estimation of temperatures from the MSUs is not especially controversial or difficult; most of the uncertainty in the trends (RSS vs UAH) comes from disagreements in how to handle the intercalibration of different copies of the instrument as one satellite is replaced by another in the POES constellation. I do think it's pretty neat that the RSS temperature trend matches the GISS, NOAA, and HADCRUT surface temperature trends to the nearest 0.01C per decade ... given that no microwave temperature data are included in the surface reconstructions and no surface measurements are used in the processing of the satellite data. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 20:37 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
A. Korhola: “Decision-makers should make sensible choices regarding the overall benefits in the environment of uncertainty.” “According to Korhola, the mistakes and exaggerations of the IPCC report that have now come to light – for example, regarding the Himalayan glaciers, destruction of the Amazon rain forest, collapse of the grain crop in Africa, and the link between climate change and natural disasters – have in this respect done a favour.” On Spitsbergen, when he was on the “current location on the map”, Polish researchers found that there millions of years ago, were growing - almost as big as the equator - tropical plants - how, why, have reached such proportions? - We do not know ... “heatwaves” - Between 2003 and 2006 - let's look at this figure:
“heatwaves “ were associated with more rapid cooling of (rapid La Nina 2003 and 2006) - such as CLAW hypothesis (?) - low clouds over NH ...
... and malaria
Climate change and the global malaria recession Gething et al., 2010.:
“First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.”
and sea level increasing ...
Nils-Axel Mörner (2009.) Open letter to the president of the Maldives:
“When I was president for the INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003), we spent much effort on the question of present-to-future sea level changes. After intensive field studies, deliberation within the commission and discussions at five international meeting, we agreed on a "best estimate" for possible sea level changes by the year 2100. Our figure was +10 cm ±10 cm. This figure was later revised at +5 cm ±15cm.”
“So, Mr. President, when you ignore to face available observational facts, refuses a normal democratic dialogue, and continue to menace your people with the imaginary threat of a disastrous flooding already in progress, I think you are doing a serious mistake.”
Darfur
- The greening of the Sahel: “Analyses made by several independent groups of temporal sequences of satellite data over two decades since early 1980s, showed a remarkable increasing trend in vegetation greenness.” “Increasing rainfall over the last few years is certainly one reason, but does not fully explain the change.”
“The vast belt of significantly increasing vegetation across the central Sudan corresponds to a large extent to provinces with large numbers of internally displaced people. In the seven Sudanese provinces ... ... almost 2 million people were internally displaced, corresponding to about 24% of the population. Being internally displaced means that people have fled their homes and live elsewhere away from their normal means of incomes, often on the outskirts of towns. As a consequence, agriculture is neglected and livestock dispersed.”
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Eric (skeptic) at 20:31 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Under economic, for the U.S. which has a variety of climate zones, the total heating expenditures are $57B (table SH5 in http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recs2005/c&e/spaceheating/pdf/alltables1-13.pdf) The total A/C expenditures are $25B (table AC4 in http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/recs2005/c&e/airconditioning/pdf/alltables1-11.pdf) Heating costs are less flexible since a house can be damaged in freezing weather unlike a house without A/C in warm weather. -
Eric (skeptic) at 19:53 PM on 17 August 2010Hockey stick is broken
Re: Comparing proxies against global NH (i.e. EIV) versus regional temperature records (i.e. CPS). The two methodologies are compared in Mann 08 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2008/09/02/0805721105.full.pdf and are also compared in the new paper (see sections 3.2 and 3.6 in Doug's link in post 26) -
chris1204 at 19:42 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
On a serious note, I think the plain English format as above is a major improvement on the original post. It reads smoothly without dumbing down. On a lighter note, I note Port Jackson or Sydney Harbour is indeed a flooded river valley. Lovely water views, good sailing and so forth. It was last a river valley some 6000 years BCE if my memory serves me. Some parts of the world will continue to rise above sea level - Scandinavia is still in a post-glacial rebound - and other parts are rising due to tectonic activity. Not sure of the comparable rates though. I would cut out the bit about malaria - malaria was an ubiquitous disease until the mid to late 20th century. Other illnesses due to insect vectors might be more of an issue. -
JMurphy at 19:02 PM on 17 August 2010Did global warming stop in 1998? (basic version)
Arkadiusz Semczyszak wrote : "This is a very famous article - an interview with Solomon - The Guardian (29.01.2010) Water vapour caused one-third of global warming in 1990s, study reveals" Very famous ?! Maybe amongst those who spend all their time thinking about AGW, perhaps ? Anyway, good to see the bit you quoted, in its full context, i.e. : Solomon said the new finding does not challenge the conclusion that human activity drives climate change. "Not to my mind it doesn't," she said. "It shows that we shouldn't over-interpret the results from a few years one way or another." -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 18:36 PM on 17 August 2010Did global warming stop in 1998? (basic version)
By the way, could you post a link to that quote from Solomon ? This is a very famous article - an interview with Solomon - The Guardian (29.01.2010) Water vapour caused one-third of global warming in 1990s, study reveals As a reminder - Solomon: “An atmospheric chemist ... ... was one of the first to be stirred into action by reports in the 1980s of deterioration of the planet's OZONE layer.” “ As a co-chair with Dr. Qin Dahe of Working Group 1 of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), she played a key role in producing the report ...” The paper doesn't draw any conclusions ... ? “Satellite measurements were used to show that water vapour levels in the stratosphere have dropped about 10% since 2000. When the scientists fed this change into a climate model, they found it could have reduced, by about 25% over the last decade, the amount of warming expected to be caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.” No 90% “over the last decade” but 90% - 25% ? Merely 65% ? a negative feedback ... ? “She said it was not clear if the water vapour decrease after 2000 reflects a NATURAL shift, or if it was a consequence of a [anthropogenic] warming world [natural - The stratospheric cooling events at the equator ... “Stratospheric temperature is driven by the QBO of magnetic and irradiance activity on the sun.” “The temperature response at 10hPa was about 7.5 degrees.” “The change in total solar irradiance is immaterial.”]. If the latter [AGW feedback] is true, then more warming could see greater decreases in water vapour, acting as a negative feedback to apply the brakes on future temperature rise.” ... they don't believe most of what they're saying? He would like to point out that such skeptics such as Spenser, the two gentlemen Pielke, Segalstad even Lindzen, Lomborg, especially Korhola and von Storch (type of semi-sceptics) does not negate the role of CO2 in the current temperature change, say only that this role - CO2 - In the process of temperature change - by the IPCC - is far too highly estimated. I recently studying how very slowly (but still!) over the past three years to change the views of other "icons" AGW theory - F. Joos. Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate: “Our results are incompatibly lower (P,0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of 40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per 6C, and correspondingly suggest 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.” “Coupled carbon–climate models show a wide range in feedback strength, with 20–200 p.p.m.v. [?!] of temperature-driven CO2 ...” “Approximately 40% of the uncertainty related to projected warming of the twenty-first century stems from the unknown behaviour of the carbon cycle ...” If it is not (even slightly) skepticism ... -
huntjanin at 18:24 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
RSVP: If global warming continues, maybe they will work on their tans,too. -
RSVP at 18:20 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
When the coastline of Greenland gets greener, are people going to just take pictures of it? -
RSVP at 18:12 PM on 17 August 2010Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
batsvensson 217 When you see a plane way out on the horizon, it is hard to tell if is coming towards you or going away. Steady observation however reveals the direction over time. If it should be approaching for instance, you know for sure which way it is going. You still may not know how fast. Does the velocity matter, if all you wanted to say was whether it was coming or going? By the same token, it doesnt necessarily take measurements and data to unravel AGW; given the fact that graybodies emit IR as much as they absorb IR, the more GHG, the more overall absorption and the more emission, therefore the more global cooling. This does not exclude the possibility of a localized GHG effect, but overall (i.e. globally), the net result must be more cooling. Another way to look at this whole thing. H20, CO2 and energy are a product of combustion. As a byproduct of combustion, it just turns out you get some gasses that help cool the atmosphere. Imagine if this were not the case,,, over millenium all the brush and forest fires would eventually leave the Earth uninhabitable. It's almost as if it were "designed" perfectly, and yet, we are looking at this completely backwards. -
Ari Jokimäki at 18:06 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
One obvious positive outcome from the sea level rise is that the sea life has more room to live in. Sea life of course faces other serious problems from climate change and other human activities but that's one positive side. -
JMurphy at 17:58 PM on 17 August 2010Did global warming stop in 1998? (basic version)
Paul Bell wrote : "Phil Jones would disagree. From BBC interview: Q:Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming A: Yes http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm" Surely this can't be left hanging like that, just in case anyone reads it but can't be bothered to go to the other thread ? I hope I can be allowed to post the full response from Phil Jones, for clarification - especially as Paul Bell has not quoted Jones properly, for some strange reason : Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods. -
huntjanin at 16:56 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
johnd: Sorry to be unclear. I was actually thinking of ports that are now on rivers but which, thanks to rising sea levels, might eventually become seaports. -
johnd at 16:32 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
huntjanin at 15:41 PM, do you mean some of the river ports that used to be sea ports but are gradually getting further and further inland as the deltas grow? -
Doug Bostrom at 16:25 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
Huntjanin, probably will help you to know this post is part of a new development here to produce stepwise explanations increasing in complexity. John Cook provides an explanation here. The idea is to provide a very quick synopsis with immediately accessible elaboration of explanations including full supporting material, etc. -
gpwayne at 16:11 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
huntjanin - again, a fair point. I've amended the line about sea level rise benefits to make it appropriately equivocal. Thanks for pointing that out. -
Cornelius Breadbasket at 15:58 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
#6, doug_bostrom There may be another thread or article needed on this site to discuss extreme weather events this year - Southern France, Central Europe, Russia, China, Brazil, Tennessee, Pakistan and now Niger - and whether they should be linked to climate change. There is a very interesting response to these events from the Munich RE insurance company. They've undertaken research that demonstrates that since 1980 extreme weather events have tripled. The implication is that extreme weather events can no longer be dismissed as unrelated to climate change. Here is a link. -
huntjanin at 15:55 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
gpwayne: Thanks. FYI, I'm writing a book on sea level rise and, aside from the river-port-seaport idea, the only other positive benefit I'm come across is that maybe some former wetlands will be submerged and can thus return to their role as wetlands, rather than as, say, oil refineries. I don't know that you have to put this but it may be best to avoid making categorical statements unless you are 100% sure you are right. -
huntjanin at 15:50 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
In all respect, and meaning no offense, some of the comments above strengthen my belief, stated in this blog not long ago, that it is mistake to reduce complicated, multifaceted isses to simplistic explanations. These will give the deniers no end of free ammunition. In my opinion, the climate change believers must set their sights high, not low.Response: It is possible to accurately explain complicated science in simple terms. It's not easy, in fact, it's very difficult (a quick scan of the in-depth discussion on the Authors Forum shows that). But if we want the general public to understand what's happening to the climate, it's an effort worth trying. -
Doug Bostrom at 15:46 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
Marcus, good point. I believe one of the problems here is, the message is not pleasing so indeed there's no being pleased by it. One alternative is to make up a story about a better message. Meta-comment, over and out. -
gpwayne at 15:45 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
huntjanin: "I can't believe that there will be absolutely NO benefits [to sea level rise]" Fair enough, but I couldn't find anything in the literature, in what was admittedly a short search. If you can find anything from a reasonably credible source I'll be glad to add it in. -
gpwayne at 15:43 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
A decision was taken to start a new thread with each 'basic' rebuttal, so I'm going to address a point or two made by Thingadonta:Some places, like the Himalayas and Greenland, with warmer temperatues will experience increased meltwater flows, because more areas are above 0 degrees celsius, which means more water, not less.
I assume you refer to air temperature. This is not what is causing the majority of melting of the Greenland ice cap - it is subduction of warmer sea water, melting of undersea buttresses that hold the glaciers in place, and some surface water that trickles down through fissures in the ice called moraines.This is also enhanced by more frequent floods.
Two things. Glaciers are shrinking. If glacier mass balance is consistently negative (80% display mass loss according to the WGMS) then the amount of spring melt water is going to be reduced, so less is available downsteam at lower altitudes. Secondly, more frequent floods are a liability, not an enhancement. The timing is crucial - flash floods that arrive after crops are planted simply wash the crops away. This is not very helpful, nor it is predictable.The list above is too one-sided to be taken seriously.
You'd need to provide the other side then, for your assertion to be taken seriously. Substantiate your claim please with facts. -
huntjanin at 15:41 PM on 17 August 2010The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
I can't believe that there will be absolutely NO benefits, anywhere in the world, as a result of sea level rise. Might not some river ports become seaports?Response: Now that's thinking outside the box :-) -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:39 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
Here is a link to a previous post John has done on Satellites and Temperature http://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm And if you want way too much information then follow John's link to this by Scott Church http://www.scottchurchdirect.com/docs/MSU-Troposphere-Review01.pdf In particular, his review of the work by Quiang Fu and others, looking at compensating for the fact that the T2 MSU's, that are used to read the lower & mid Troposphere temp's are affected by the fact that 15-20% of the signal is actually coming from the lower stratosphere. As a consequence of the fact that the stratosphere has cooled more than the troposphere has warmed, the satellite data products from both RSS & UAH are probably under reporting the actual temperature of the troposphere due to 'contamination' of the signal by cooling of the stratosphere. Church's review is thorough but long - 137 pages. But definitely worth reading. -
Marcus at 14:04 PM on 17 August 2010Of satellites and temperatures
The important point here, though, is how the Denialists keep changing the goal-posts every time the evidence doesn't suit their denial. When they thought the UAH data supported their claims of a cooling trend, they were all "well the Satellite record is so much more reliable than surface temperature readings". Now that the UAH is showing a definitive warming trend, now the Denialists are telling us that satellites are rubbish too. Seriously, there's no pleasing these people. What matters is the close correlation between surface & satellite based temperature measurements from at least *four* different sources! I mean, how much more EVIDENCE do these denialists need? -
Doug Bostrom at 13:37 PM on 17 August 2010Hockey stick is broken
McShane and Wyner is apparently yet another smoking "gub," looks like. Nailed by their lack of expertise? The tasty nugget at the center of the paper, for skeptics: In other words, our model performs better when using highly autocorrelated noise rather than proxies to predict temperature. The real proxies are less predictive than our "fake" data. It appears M&W compared the performance of proxies sensitive to regional changes against the global NH temperature record. Naturally, the thermometer on your porch (for instance) will turn out to be a poor proxy for global NH temperature if you're trying to tease out changes on the order of a couple of degrees. Even I should have been able to see that. Rats. Noted in various places. -
barry1487 at 13:27 PM on 17 August 2010Did global warming stop in 1998? (basic version)
It doesn't matter that they don't understand the quote. Jones' comment is an 'admission'. The rest of his work is 'fraudulent'. Agreeable propaganda is to an ideologue what a toy is to a child.
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