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Comments 11301 to 11350:
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scaddenp at 06:13 AM on 4 April 2019Climate's changed before
TVC15 - I would say likely it is from here. The graphic itself has the source references for its data. In denier space, this usually goes with arguments that CO2 isnt related temperature - ignoring all the other drivers of climate.
The NPR article was on the Marcott 2013 paper, extensively discussed here. Put Marcott into the search box on top right. A criticism is that the methodology may not capture high frequency temperature change. The usual denier take is to point major spikes in the NH temperature record (eg Younger Dryas) associated with exit from glacials. There is some evidence of similar, anti-phased events, in SH record. These proxies to indeed indicate very rapid temperature change but I am not aware of evidence for a global temperature change of that speed as opposed to regional change. Mechanism is disputed, but is associated with end of glacial periods so relevance to present climate is doubtful to say least.
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John Hartz at 06:05 AM on 4 April 2019Climate's changed before
@TVC15:
You should pose your question about the source of a graph to the denier who posted it.
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TVC15 at 05:51 AM on 4 April 2019Climate's changed before
Can you guys tell me where this graph originated from? A denier is trying to use it to claim that there's no correlation between earth's CO2 levels and climate change in either direction (warmer or colder). And that's true over earth's 4+ billion year history.
Geological Timescale: CO2 Concentration v. Temperature Fluctuations
Thanks!
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TVC15 at 05:34 AM on 4 April 2019Climate's changed before
I have a question about the EPIC ice core data showing that the climate for the seven prior interglacials. The second denier I'm dealing with is stating:
"The reason it was 14.4°F warmer in Greenland than it is now is because during the last Inter-Glacial Period, the average global temperature was 73.7°F and not the current 58.4°F."
When I disclosed that the the EPICA ice core data (which covers back to eight previous interglacials) doesn't manage the 4.3°C to 8.3°C relative to today for seven prior interglacials.
He comes back with this: "Um, those are the temperature changes in the Antarctic, not the average global temperature."
My understanding of the EPICA Ice Core datas main objective is to obtain full documentation of the climatic and atmospheric record archived in Antarctic ice by drilling and analyzing two ice cores and comparing these with their Greenland counterparts (GRIP and GISP). Evaluation of these records will provide information about the natural climate variability and mechanisms of rapid climatic changes during the last glacial epoch.
What game is this denier tyring to play with me?
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TVC15 at 04:23 AM on 4 April 2019Climate's changed before
@684 scaddenp
Thanks scaddenp. He's the same denier who says CO2 is a basic building block of life. *rolled eyes*
The other denier I'm dealing with uses odd angles to come at me with.
"I guess you see only what you want to see.
Past Century's Global Temperature Change Is Fastest On Record
Past Century's Global Temperature Change Is Fastest On Record
It's not the fastest on record.
24 times in the last 100,000 years, the climate has fluctuated by as much as 20°F in a matter of years or decades.
78 times in the last 100,000 years, the climate has fluctuated by smaller amounts 4°F-6°F in a matter of years or decades.
Explain how 1.4°F over 140 years — 14 decades — is faster than that.
If I had to list every alarmist claim by NASA, or NPR, or National Geographic or the IPCC, I'd be here the rest of my life."
It's a new form of cherry picking combined with a Gish Gallop.
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Wazoo at 04:23 AM on 4 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
You forgot to explain how the asteroid was create by mankind's activity.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:22 AM on 4 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
Perhaps in the near future, elected officials and political candidates will be 'embarassed' out of staying in office or running for election because of their previous harmful behaviour related to improving awareness and understanding of climate science and their resistance to the required corrections that are clearly ethically essential to improving the future for humanity.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:27 AM on 4 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
A wrap-up comment related to my comments @7 and 8:
Climate science has unintentionally exposed a significant required correction of what humans have developed. The Present is significantly morally corrupted. That is the fundamental reason for the difficulty climate scientists face in their efforts to improve awareness and understanding.
The awareness and understanding presented by Stephen Gardiner is not fundamentally new. It is a rigorous presentation of fundamental understanding that has been presented in the past. A recent clear presentation of the understanding was in the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" (24 years before Gardiner published his detailed presentation of the Moral Corruption Storm). And the fundamental idea was also presented by many people before that time. One of those presentations was by John Stuart Mills back in the 1800s.
In "On Liberty" Mills stated "If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences."
Gardiner's Global Storm is regarding a location-based Distant Motive (concern for Other locations on the planet). And his Intergenerational Storm is a time-based Distant Motive (concern for the future). And a third Distant Motive would be related to consideration of Other Life including Other people (an item mentioned by Gardiner as an issue covered/impacted by the Perfect Moral Storm).
That understanding was summarized as follows in opening section of "Our Common Future":
25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management.The winners in politics and business have no defence for failing to be aware of this understanding and how it relates to their actions, especially today (and little defence for being unaware since 1987).
Gardiner, and so many others, point out that what is lacking is institutions that will hold the morally corrupted accountable and penalize them for failing to help improve awareness and understanding in pursuit of sustainable developments for the benefit of the future of humanity.
And the lack of such institutions can be understood to be the developed result of moral corruption being allowed to Win. Because the Winners establish what the Institutions will be and what they will do.
The fundamental rule of Ethics is "Do No Harm". The aspiration or objective of being Ethical is to "Help Others". That leads to an understanding that:
- being Ethical is restricted to 'only those actions that Do No Harm to Others, including not harming other life because Others may depend on that Other life as an essential part of the intricate web of life'. Only actions helpful to Others are Ethical.
- One person or group cannot ethically benefit if their actions will harm any Others. And future generations are Others.
The current generation faces an ethical dilemma. The actions of past generations have developed popular and profitable activities that are understandably harmful and ultimately unsustainable. How is that incorrect development to be corrected? (because it undeniably must be corrected). The Perfect Moral Storm'spowerful motivation toward Moral Corruption must be able to be Over-powered by Good Helpful people or there is no future for humanity, and that is clearly not an acceptable future option.
Clearly, to the greatest degree possible, the continued harm to others must be reversed. The damaging intergenerational cycle of moral corruption must be broken. Those who have become the most fortunate by benefiting from harmful unsustainable activity must be required to lead the correction, including giving up some of their developed perceptions of status relative to Others.
A likely required correction is that Status would be contingent on how helpful a person is. Anyone not wanting to lead that way should have their wealth and influence legally corrected to match the degree of responsibility the person is choosing to want (there being no expectation of helpfulness from the poorest).
Richer more influential people must morally be required to:
- develop the ability to have lower impact lives than poorer people
- put more effort into helpfully improving awareness and understanding.
- sustainably help the less fortunate live decent lives
They cannot be allowed to remain Richer and more Powerful if they choose not to be more ethical than Others.
And that required correction has been unintentionally exposed by climate science. It is the fundamental reason for the difficulty climate scientists face in their efforts to improve awareness and understanding.
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cpske at 00:36 AM on 4 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Heh, best April First article on the web!
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SirCharles at 22:26 PM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
ExxonMobil shareholders will not get a vote on whether the company should set targets for cutting its greenhouse gas emissions, following a ruling by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
New York State’s pension fund and other investors had called for the oil company to start setting targets for reducing emissions in line with the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
But the SEC ruled on Tuesday that Exxon could keep the proposal off the ballot at its annual shareholder meeting next month.
=> Exxon shareholders denied vote on emissions targets | Financial Times
Exxon have been notorious liars and will probably lose their lobby registration at the EU-Parliament therefore.
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michael sweet at 22:05 PM on 3 April 20193 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
Thinking Man,
I note that you show no math or citations to support your wild claims.
I have seen several attempts by wind opponents to calculate very high costs of wind using absurd assumptions like you describe. About 5 years ago one was published in a journal. No-one refers to that article now because everyone informed knows that it was BS from the start.
In spite of these calculations, in Texas and New England wind energy underbids all fossil fuels including gas. Real world experience indicates that wind is cheaper than all fossil fuels.
ps: I thought that the 6 day in advance estimates of wind energy were pretty good. Since utilities use these for routine planning if a fossil plant that is on standby is forecast to be needed 6 days in advance they have sufficient time to get the fossil plant online. The one day (or one hur) forecasts are the ones that control what is done in the end. Everyone knows that forecasts are not as accurate beyond 4 days. Claiming a 6 day forecast is important is a strawman argument.
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JohnSeers at 19:45 PM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
@SirCharles 12
"... numerous attempts to derive E=mc² from first principles have failed"
That is hilarious. I think Einstein is famous for most of his work being thought experiments and deriving his equations from "first principles". Including E=mc² . -
AnnieLaurieBurke at 16:20 PM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
August 25, 2046? Oh, cr^p! That's just 2 months after my 100th birthday! ;-(
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sarokarekpahal at 15:30 PM on 3 April 2019Major study uncovers ‘sea change’ in world’s understanding of Atlantic conveyor belt
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow ouNon Government Organizations are actually the backbone of society. These NGO help the Society before any government help. Thousands of helping hands works together in any disasters before the happening of such crisis. Thanks for sharing such a valuable post according to new ways of social NGO. SAROKAR NGO is different than othersr comments policy. Thank You!
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:04 PM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
I will add an important point to my comment @7.
Perceptions of prosperity or reduction of poverty that are the result of unsustainable and harmful pursuits cannot be expected to continue as benefits into the future.
That is an inescapable reality. Unsustainable harmful pursuits have a competitive advantage when the measures of 'value' are popularity or profitability. Once valid ethics is introduced (not claims about morality that are just poor excuses for harmful unsustainable pursuits) everything changes.
The current developed world has become highly morally corrupted. Misleading marketing is a major reason. Politics being a free-for-all regarding misleading marketing has only made things Progressively (and Conservatively) Worse.
Progressive development of sustainable improvements, and related corrections of what has developed based on constantly improving understanding, is compromised by the easy popularity of resistance to correction, the resistance to learning, the resistance to changing an incorrectly made-up mind.
The resistance to correction has made many problems worse. The result is the development of requirements for more traumatic corrections. The required corrections today are larger and more urgent that they were 30 years ago.
The key to improving the future is to make the corrections earlier, and ensure that the reduced trauma of the correction (reduced because it was started earlier) is experienced by the people who benefited most from the creation of the problem before the corrections started to be implemented.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:48 PM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
Talk of the limitations of electric cars is interesting. But the reality is that electric rapid transit was effectively implemented about 100 years ago.
And debating technical details regarding climate change and responsible actions is interesting, but can be a damaging distraction.
And claiming that the choice is 'reduce the harm done to future generations' or 'help the poor today by doing more harm to the future generations' is clearly a false choice. Poverty and reduction of future climate impacts can been achieved simultaneously, at the expense of people who gained status in ways that are not sustainable, ways that create poverty and climate impacts.
The reason there is still poverty in a nation as collectively wealthy as the USA has a similar cause as the reason such a wealthy nation has such powerful resistance to behaving better regarding climate change. And it is similar to the reason there is poverty in any nation (almost every nation has wealthy people and deep poverty).
And that brings me to the point of referring to a book I highly recommend to people who want to better understand what is going on, regarding more than climate change, but with climate change as a powerful case study.
"A Perfect Moral Storm: the Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change.", by Stephen Gardiner published in 2011, is a comprehensive and hard to argue against presentation of the ethical issue (the moral corruption of leadership) that climate science has exposed in a big way.
The 2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #3 included the following presentation by Gardiner:
Why climate change is an ethical problem by Stephen Gardiner, In Theory, Washington Post, Jan 9, 2016
It is an updated summary of the thinking he presented in his book. But some here may remember that back in 2012 his book played a key part in the following SkS item posted by Andy Skuce in 2012: "Changing Climates, Changing Minds: The Great Stink of London"
In that item a series of points regarding climate change impacts are presented and followed by the following:
"In his recent book A Perfect Moral Storm, The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change, Stephen Gardiner identified three “storms” that come together in a wicked synergy to make the climate crisis an especially intractable problem.
- The Global Storm. The unequal dispersion of cause and effect across the planet. See b), c) and d) above.
- The Intergenerational Storm. The effects of our emissions are deferred and will persist essentially for ever on historical timescales. See e) and f) above.
- The Theoretical Storm. We currently lack the institutions, conventions and tools—political, moral and economic—needed to tackle the exceptional problems posed by climate change and we are going to have to invent them as we go along. See g) above.
"After this analysis it shouldn’t be difficult to appreciate why we’re not doing any better than the Londoners were in 1855. Actually, to quote climate scientist Ray Pierrehumbert (pdf):
So far, we’re not doing any better than cyanobacteria."
The Green New Deal is proof that some people are trying to do better than cyanobacteria. But they still face massive resistance from morally corrupted wealthy people and the type of leadership the morally corrupted want.
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SirCharles at 12:15 PM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
BTW. Ever seen that, folks?
Conservapedia: "E=mc² is liberal claptrap"
=> https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=E=mc%C2%B2
That's for real.
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scaddenp at 11:37 AM on 3 April 2019Climate's changed before
TVC - you are wasting your time with this idiot. Your graphic is based on some fundimental physical assumptions, especially the conservation of energy. From this we deduce that changing the radiative balance will change climate. Measuring individual contributions to the radiative balance does indeed yield that diagram. It is possible to construe a possible downward trend in solar, but he thinks a change of 0.1W/m2 is significant then why isnt change of 3.7W/m2 (GHG) even more significant. The claim "that we "know" that the only thing that really matters is CO2?" is strawman. Reading any of the references associated with the diagram shows that all the causes contribute and are accounted for - but that CO2 is the most important for current climate change. He is not interested in examining the evidence. He needs to supply evidence that refutes the methodology or finding of those papers. I doubt you get him to read any of them.
His comments present not one shred of evidence in reply. It is scoffs from personal incredulity based on wilful ignorance. You will not make any impact on someone who chooses not to understand.
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SirCharles at 10:30 AM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
@10. nigelj
Just build more wind turbines... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w_eSVGSl8Q
Trump has always been an extreme hypocrite. So he might actually fall for this 'idea'
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TVC15 at 08:59 AM on 3 April 2019Climate's changed before
My the denialist is trying to debunk this link I posted.
"You actually believe that one can parse individual contributions to "climate" change so precisely and then assign (with similar precision) relative contributions from man and "natural" causes?"
"That is priceless. So I guess the fact that we are in a 50-75 year solar minimum cooling phase is lost to you then? Should we not be concerned about that large burning gas ball in the sky, now that we "know" that the only thing that really matters is CO2?"
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nigelj at 07:46 AM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
It could be hollow. Donald Trump could always hire Bruce Willis, experiended asteroid hunter, to blow the asteroid out of the sky, provided of course poor countries pay as much to help as rich countries, or the "deal is off".
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nigelj at 06:49 AM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
Sometimes governments have "picked winners" and so backed things that have failed, but so has the private sector, with numerous examples in the technology area. Picking winners is an inescapable part of life.
The private sector has backed fossil fuels just as much as governments.
Governments can minimise picking winners by treating all forms of renewable electricity generation the same.
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nigelj at 06:22 AM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
Dana's article is really good, but it unfortunately it looks to me like a carbon tax and dividend isn't gaining much traction in America. Perhaps there is just too much ideological paranoia about taxes for it to ever work.
The government infrastructure spend in the GND might be the only thing thats viable. The senate have voted down the GND but a government spend at realistic levels might be viable. Subsidies around the world for wind power etc have yielded results. The GOP is quite happy to subsidise things when it suits and run deficit financing.
It's troubling though because without a price on carbon things become complicated.
America's climate policy is a train wreck.
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nigelj at 06:14 AM on 3 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
"Nevertheless, for all the competition and technical input to electric car design, the weight to range ratio of lithium-ion batteries places practical limits on the utility of electric cars when compared to ICE cars."
Yes and no. The 2019 nissan leaf electric car is moderately priced, and can go 150 miles on a full charge and a new model available shortly will do 200 miles. This is quite sufficient for work and travel for the vast majority of people, assuming some recharging stations. The venerable toyota corolla can go 500 miles on a full tank of gas, but this is largely superfluous unless you do very long trips somewhere with few petrol stations, and not many people do this. So the difference between the two cars is psychological rather than real.
In addition 10 disruptive battery technologies are under development and some will no doubt extend range for those needing 500 miles. Even if some of these fail, and being careful of getting carried away technological hype, it still looks very promising. So consciousnessof sheep is too pessimistic for me as well. But the article on Britain as Venezuela is interesting. Just chose it at random.
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william5331 at 06:04 AM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Worth keeping an eye on thought. Each future observation refines the probable orbit of this piece of rock (or is it a snow ball?) . More likely that we will have destroyed our civilization by then and won't have the capacity remaining to do anything about it.
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SirCharles at 03:11 AM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
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SirCharles at 02:55 AM on 3 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
LMAO!
Desperately needed these times.
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ThinkingMan at 00:33 AM on 3 April 20193 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
LEVELIZED cost estimates can be used as a starting point for estimating the cost of electricity service which society currently expects. Electricity users expect reliable service. In TX, the full cost (capital related charges + operating costs) of reliable electricity structured around wind turbines is at least 1.75x the full cost of reliable electricity generated by natural gas fired combined cycle combustion turbines. In New England, the multiplier is 2x.
The multipliers were estimated using EIA levelized cost estimates, wind turbine capacity factors for both regions, hourly wind power data for both regions plus a simple financial model. The wind turbine package was designed to generate a constant amount of electricity, for simplicity's sake. "Package" means the mix of thermal generators backing up wind turbines. The multipliers are intended to be ball park estimates.
PREDICTABILITY of wind turbine output: Day ahead and longer wind power forecasts leave much to be desired across North America. Your attention is directed to https://www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting/wind-power-forecasting/ . Go to the "Monthly Wind Power Forecast vs Actual Comparison". "aeso" is the Alberta System Operator. Results are similar for Electric Reliability Council of Texas and ISO New England.
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Eclectic at 19:13 PM on 2 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
Postkey @2 ,
I am not sure it was worth your while quoting from blogger "consciousnessofsheep".
His ovine opine [scuze the Inglish] seems to be that what was impossible 20 years ago, will consequently & necessarily be impossible 20 years in the future, or 50 years in the future. And furthermore, that modern industrial society will collapse when diesel fuel (petroleum-based) runs out.
Are the other articles on his blog any the better?
Or were you quoting him ironically, as an example of uncritical thinking?
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Postkey at 18:18 PM on 2 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
"Electric cars – powered from on-board batteries – have been around since 1859. However, they were quickly eclipsed by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars which even then offered far greater speeds and ranges. The early electric cars drew their limited power from lead-acid batteries of the kind found in most ICE cars. And while improvements continued to be made to electric motors, it was battery storage that proved to be the limiting factor for electric cars. The development of modern lithium-ion batteries – coinciding with the global drive to curb greenhouse gas emissions – helped propel Elon Musk’s high performance (and once again massively subsidised from the public purse) Tesla electric cars to prominence. Following the release of the Roadster and the development of new longer range Tesla cars, we have seen several other companies including Nissan, Daimler and BMW bring electric cars to market. Nevertheless, for all the competition and technical input to electric car design, the weight to range ratio of lithium-ion batteries places practical limits on the utility of electric cars when compared to ICE cars."
From http://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/
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bozzza at 17:33 PM on 2 April 2019Protecting oil companies instead of the climate-vulnerable is elitist
It's year 11 economics: the more the government injection the harder it is to get rid of--> they picked fosssil fuels as 'the winner' a century ago... the great war propbably had something to do with that! And we all know science is polticial! That's why batteries never got the cold shoulder for the bulk of the last century!
I mean, they were dreaming of going to the moon in the 20s and they'd well figured out batteries couldn't do it, ever......... that fact will never be disproven so it's almost all understandable infact!
Go propaganda ay!!!!
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JavaTom at 10:46 AM on 2 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Brilliant!
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mrkt at 09:17 AM on 2 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Love it. Well done.
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nigelj at 05:11 AM on 2 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Amusing, and very on point.
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jphsd at 04:36 AM on 2 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Well played sir, well played!
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Forrest at 15:13 PM on 1 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Obviously another example of elitist scientists trying to destroy the American way of life. Why does the fake news media buy into all this nonsense? We need to stop funding fake science, and make sure that only real scientists are supported with our tax dollars. We should create a new government department to review all science proposals and reject anything based on elitist hoaxes like evolution, global warming, fluoridation, vaccines, and relativity.
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Chad Boudreau at 15:09 PM on 1 April 2019Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Bravo!
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scaddenp at 06:18 AM on 1 April 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
Looks like various blogger fear a "blue water" event in the arctic and are preparing their public for idea that it isnt bad, could be natural, no need to support any climate action.
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scaddenp at 12:43 PM on 31 March 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Michael, I dont believe you are correct about grey literature. Eg see here.
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michael sweet at 09:32 AM on 31 March 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
From Red Barons's Scientific American report: "As with all of Johnson’s work to date, this result has appeared only in the form of reports and other “grey literature.”
Grey literature is not allowed in the IPCC report because it is considered unreliable. Johnson needs to replicate his work and publish the results in a peer reviewed report. Hardly part of the scientific consensus.
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RedBaron at 13:56 PM on 30 March 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
@20 liberator,
That study does not include Methanotroph activity in their CH4 analysis. So their methane analysis was flawed compared to feedlot. But they did report soil sequestration of CO2e resulting as a net negative. So they got that part right at least, even using imported alfalfa hay, which is not needed in HPG, unlike certain other AMPs. Important to note too that the rang of soil sequestration they found was within the 5-20 tonnes CO2e / ha/ yr found elsewhere. Once they finally get the methane cycle right too, the differences will be even more profound.
@Kevin C,
Thanks for the time and effort. Here is more fuel for the fire.
Can Soil Microbes Slow Climate Change?
" Johnson reported a net annual increase of almost 11 metric tons of soil carbon per hectare on his cropland."
Converted to CO2e that is ~ 40 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr. About double the average reported by Jones and 4x what was reported by Teague, but nearly the same as the high outliers. Jones also took the raw results and measured that only 78% was stable humic polymers and I don't see where or if Johnson did that.
It's not HPG, but it does show the biophysical capacity of microorganisms in the soil to sequester high rates of carbon.
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bjchip at 09:28 AM on 30 March 2019New measurements confirm extra heating from our carbon dioxide
Link to Tjemkes et.al 2004 is broken.
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Eclectic at 07:44 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
Gsmakin @117 ,
thank you for the link to "the blogger's presentation" [ = WUWT blog ] of 22 February 2018.
If you scroll down about halfway on the comments section there, you see an interchange between Nick Stokes and the guy who calls himself "Kenneth Richard" (who is a major propagandist at "No Tricks Zone"). Quite informative. Continue through to the final post, which is by Kristi Silber (who is also one of the handful of commenters worth reading on WUWT).
Gsmakin, I am unsure of your degree of familiarity with WUWT. My take on that blog, is that the usual articles are worth a quick glance (but are typically puerile propaganda spin) and the comments columns are mostly filled by posters who are (A) political extremists somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan, and/or (B) crackpots who maintain that CO2 has negligible effect on terrestrial climate, and/or (C) tinfoil-hat conspiracists.
~ So, please do not waste too much of your valuable time in detailed reading of the articles at WUWT . . . and as for the comments columns, best just to scroll down at high speed, but pausing to read anything by Nick Stokes, Steven Mosher, and Kristi Silber. (NB: up until recent times, the WUWT site allowed commenters to give each other a vote of thumbs-up or thumbs-down. It was highly noticeable, how the above three persons always received a heavy downvote ~ but with that system gone, the other commenters simply express their vitriol verbally . . . when they can spare time from berating the general science community.)
As for Kenneth Richard ~ oh what a blackened conscience he must have, from the persistent way his output is brimful of mendacities, doctorings, and misrepresentations. A propagandist, in the most pejorative sense. (To quote from Nick Stokes on 22 Feb 2019 there : "There is no truth in Kenneth Richard's misrepresentations" )
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nigelj at 07:10 AM on 30 March 2019New research, March 18-24, 2019
Regarding "The growth of climate change misinformation in US philanthropy: evidence from natural language processing (open access)"
This certainly demonstrates the power of lobby groups and campaign financing over politicians. I was a little bit interested in some of the research referred to in the article, so I tracked it down, so here are some links to open access articles:
Trust, tribalism and tweets: has political polarization made science a “wedge issue”?
The spreading of misinformation online
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gsmakin at 03:57 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
MA Rodger: Yeah, the first bit you quote is a summary of the locations from which the data across all three of the referenced papers was derived (Stein, Yamamoto and Moffa-Sanchez). Maybe I was overly broad.
As to the "opposing arguments" section I'm not here referring to the studies themselves but rather to the blogger's presentation and the manner in which he intends his audience to imbibe it. To quote from said blog:
"Further to NOAA’s claim that Arctic sea ice extent is at its lowest for at least 1500 years, Kenneth Richard highlighted three studies last year that show the claim to be bunkum."
The clear intention is to erode confidence in the NOAA findings by presenting a series of graphs which depict a "present" with much more arctic sea ice than at multiple points in the past (not just the Holocene Thermal Maximum). Presented in that way the author clearly seeks to reverse the alarm that the NOAA graph must surely cause by depicting its cliff face as a little kink in otherwise wildly undulating trend lines.
At least that's the way I saw it.
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MA Rodger at 02:34 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
gsmakin @111,
You say:-
"In total these findings appear to cover the Chukchi Sea, East Siberian Sea and Eastern Labrador Sea and to be fair do seem to detail periods of the last 10k years when these areas had far less ice than today."
The graph set out data from a single location in the Chukchi Sea (73N,166W), the ARA2B-1A bore hole (labelled A1 on the maps set out in the paper). This is a location that was marked in Atlases as being permanently frozen, but not any more.
But note that the paper (Stein et al 2017) does set out that their findings of increased ice in the Chukchi Sea over the last 2ky are reflected by results from elsewhere in the Arctic.
But the assertion @115 which you attribute to "opposing arguments", that "although current ice loss looks huge to us it is actually a mere nothing when looked at over centuries and millenia", such an assertion seems to be saying that the Arctic had entirely ice-free summers during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. This was not so. Arctic summer ice was not greatly different to the situation of the early 21st century and probably more icy that we will be seeing in coming decades.
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gsmakin at 00:29 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
Daniel Bailey - Those were indeed the findings i was familiar with and i do not doubt them but it's always worth examining the arguments of others to see if they hold any credence and if not, understand their weakness so others don't fall prey to them.
In this case the opposing arguments seem to be that although current ice loss looks huge to us it is actually a mere nothing when looked at over centuries and millenia. There are then displayed a variety of graphs depicting great hillocks from the past to little bumps in the present with a little arrow saying "you are here."
All this can get a bit confusing to a layman such as myself and although I try to educate myself I'm very grateful i can come to a site like this and be able to have my questions answered.
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gsmakin at 00:07 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
Eclectic: Sure. Basically you have the NOAA graph posted in response to 103 which quite clearly depicts the terrific drop in the amount of Arctic sea iice over the past century and then you have Lowisss13's blogger pointing to various regional studies he claims contradict that finding. Since I figured some sort of sleight of hand was afoot i nosied around the studies themselves, found the original figures and found not one of them displayed the great cliff shown at the end of the NOAA graph. I then wondered why this should be the case.
I guess you've sufficiently answered my query by pointing out what the blogger didn't - that these studies end in 1950, thus missing the great bulk of the current warming trend.
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Daniel Bailey at 00:05 AM on 30 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
For perspective, Arctic sea ice extent, from NOAA's 2017 Arctic Report Card, shows recent extents to be the lowest in the past 1,500 years. Not a surprise, as it also shows recent temperatures there to be the wamest in the past 1,500 years:
Interestingly, it also shows that the development of sea ice in the Arctic over 40 million years ago to be closely coupled with the fall in global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures (unsurprising, given that both are tightly intercorrelated over geologic time):
Given that actually reading Stein 2017 shows it to be in support of the anthropogenic nature of the current warming and the ongoing losses from the Cryosphere, especially WRT the Arctic and its diminishing sea ice, it's hard to give any credence to skeptics that misquote it.
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Eclectic at 21:34 PM on 29 March 2019Arctic sea ice has recovered
Gsmakin @111 , readers such as myself would be grateful if you clarified the point that you are interested in.
The graph you posted ( of Holocene Sea-Ice Cover Variations ) is very broad-brush indeed. It runs up to 1950 A.D. [the paleo definition of "the Present" or Time Zero ] . . . and the last 500 years have such minimal detail, that it seems close to useless for assessing what is happening in modern times.
I am completely unsure of what the validity of its proxy estimate of sea-ice cover would be ~ but, assuming it is of some value, I do think it is interesting in that it demonstrates a lower level of cover during the warm period of the Holocene Maximum (roughly 5-10 thousand years Before Present). And that the known gradual global cooling since then (i.e. over the most recent 5 thousand years) is also reflected in a gradual increase in sea-ice cover. But that is entirely as might be expected. However, the relevant question (for this thread) is ~ what is the cover doing during the last 50-100 years, and especially in recent decades, during which the global surface temperature has soared upwards enormously [and is now higher than the Holocene Maximum].
It would be "passing strange" if the modern high temperatures were not causing more ice-melt, as a definite strong trend. (Doubtless you will also be aware that the arctic ice summer volume has decreased by about 70% in the past 40 years.)
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