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HumanityRules at 15:31 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
34 Jeff Freymueller I don't think we are allowed to comment on the climategate e-mails on this wesite, but here goes. I read in them a concerted effort among some to get rebuttals of papers in specifically to beat the IPCC deadlines. That is not the normal course of scientific debate, that is politics. I also don't think they are particularly bowing down. I think the broader politics around the IPCC fits fairly naturally with the views of many people, climate scientists included. -
HumanityRules at 15:25 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
35 scaddenp "I think the climate angle was rather pushed to get funding" That made me laugh out loud. -
HumanityRules at 15:21 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
#31 ScruffyDan Assume unpleasantly it bowel cancer. If I got a pain in my gut, blood in my stools, been to the doctor, had the endoscope, had a biopsy and the test says it's cancer. There is only one possibly drug on the market. 97 recommend that drug the 3 go down a different route. The answer seems obvious. What if I walk into the room just with a pain in my gut. 97 say I've probably got wind, 3 say I should consider bowel cancer. What if there are a choice of options for treatment. And the numbers are split. What if............ -
scaddenp at 15:18 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
HR - any paper on either side with errors needs to be taken apart but yes, I was referring to the earlier one on sensitivity. I have not read the 2010 but GRACE ice loss would indicate that it is not getting colder (though note that models do not predict much warming in Antarctica). The cloud experiment - well till they do it, who knows? I think the climate angle was rather pushed to get funding but even if it has some effect, the observational data is against it having much significance for climate change. -
Jeff Freymueller at 15:18 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
"In fact the need to "take apart" science that stands outside the IPCC consensus is worrying in itself. " Papers are "taken apart" when they are wrong, not because they disagree with the IPCC consensus. Of course, wrong papers are sometimes just ignored. Correct papers withstand attempts to take them apart. Really, this whole idea that scientists in a whole host of fields reflexively bow down before the IPCC is beyond ridiculous. -
jyyh at 15:01 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
What do you get...? -97 of them will say:"let's open the window" but as 100% majority is demanded by the people who put them in the room, you get nothing. Sorry hangove'd. -
HumanityRules at 14:54 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
scaddenp Not his 2010 paper. And "taken apart" seems highly inappropriate, assimilated into the body of climate change literature seems better. In fact the need to "take apart" science that stands outside the IPCC consensus is worrying in itself. The oscillations may be well known but when I read about Arctic warming they are never mentioned. I'm skeptical there is any recent antarctic warming trend. I'm aware that Steig report a warming trend since 1957, what they didn't point out in that paper is most of that warming came in the first decade. Since about the mid 1960's antarctic temperature looks fairly flat. Have a read of Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures (2010) Petr Chylek,1 Chris K. Folland,2 Glen Lesins,3 and Manvendra K. Dubey4 CERN CLOUD - and there is enough data out there to support the grant proposal for this experiment. I'm afraid as much as you would like it to be, this idea hasn't yet been "taken apart". -
Dan Moutal at 14:35 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Lets change the subject. Imagine that the room is filled not with climatologists but with doctors. Now imagine that the split in opinion on what treatment you desperately need was the same, 97 to 3. Who's advice would you take? -
scaddenp at 14:05 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
HR - well Chylek has been taken apart elsewhere but antarctic/arctic oscillations are well known. What we have now though is warming in both. Schwartz - he has now revised upward. CERN cloud - well this is looking for mechanism but various studies (show see "its cosmic rays") show you dont get a noticeable effect even if true. joe blog - ocean circulation has mysteries but OHC is now pretty well tied down. Local effects of AGW still remain very challenging but heat redistribution doesnt have much affect on the overall heat budget. -
kdkd at 13:59 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Joe Blog #27 OK, then "off the top of my head" again: 1. Close coupling of temperature increases to CO2 emissions. 2. Fossil fuel signature of atmospheric C isotopes. 3. [ a fairly complicated statistical argument showing that CO2 overtook solar as the main driver of climate some time in the early/mid 20th century which I have personal familiarity with, but won't explain in great detail off the top of my head]. HR #25 A quick google scholar suffices (again off the top of my head): First paper I found from Nature, and completely independent of the climate science: here. There are other references too. HR #27 Well volunteered, it sounds like it will be an interesting task for you :). We'll see how it affects the overall scientific consensus, or if it's small isolated bits of information surrounding the consensus :). -
scaddenp at 13:44 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
thingadonta - put 100 scientists in room and 82 think AGW is real. Same cant be said about phrenology. -
HumanityRules at 13:41 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
14 kdkd .....and "You refer us to one single item based on an inappropriately short time period, with a complex measurement model lacking the required precision to be sufficiently sensitive over a such short time period." I agree with all that. That's part of the "climate science is in it's infancy" idea. Lets list all the other too short data sets in climate science. -
Joe Blog at 13:41 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
kdkd at 13:23 Your three points, are not in themselves proof of anything, other than climate change... for anthropogenic contributions it all comes down to the measured back radiation... and its calculated effect(i thought it was more on the order of 2W/m2? was the 3.7 W/m2 including water vapor feedback? @ scaddenp) And there are still plenty of unknowns in the climate system... ocean circulation is not actually that well understood at this stage. Cloud formation/ and its response to raised humidity/greenhouse forcing and feedback. Then you have stratospheric cooling/ and does this effect pressure systems in the troposphere? etc... The radiative properties of the GHGs etc are well understood, but not every factor. -
HumanityRules at 13:38 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
14 kdkd "beetles devestating boreal forest" I'd be interested in the reference for this one. -
HumanityRules at 13:35 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
15scaddenp at 12:34 PM on 22 July, 2010 "1/ There is an undiscovered natural variability" In some aspects of climate science some believe the natural variability is discovered, it's just not accepted as part of the IPCC's view of the world. I'll give you Chylek and others who have identified the Arctic/Antarctica seesaw effect which seems to be completely ignored when considering the consensus view of the affect of AGW on the poles. Pielke is always banging on about land use and often cites papers from other groups on his blog to illustrate his points. he seems convinced the IPCC is ignoring this issue. If it's true that land use changes are under-estimated or ignored then that does suggest we Schwartz puts GHG forcing around 1 I think. And some believe the whole process of trying to calculate the GHG forcing in the way we do is flawed. How about the 18 science groups participating in the CERN CLOUD experiments who seem to think there is at least sufficient evidence in the present data to pursue these very expensive experiments. There are also plenty of instance were we've identified the fingerprint of AGW only to discover that things aren't quite so simple, how can this be if our knowledge is so complete. Theories around 20th century hurricane numbers and intensity were recently debunked. I can't remember the reference but I'm pretty sure I recently read a paper on the problem of identifying 20thC AGW associated precipitation trends. I watched a doco narrated by Brad Pitt last night that was still pushing the Himalaya meme. That will do for now. -
scaddenp at 13:34 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Roger Pielke Snr in my opinion is not a denier and I would read his published science with respect. However, things like reduction in aerosols opens us to full force of GHG forcing. What I have seen of his blog arguments confuse proximate and ultimate causes. GC - you ask about attribution. Your opinions on this review perhaps? -
thingadonta at 13:29 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
97% of researchers who believe humans do not significantly change climate do not bother going into climate science in the first place. Over 97% of phrenologists believed bumps on the head influence mental faculties. Etc etc. -
kdkd at 13:23 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
HR #14 "There are many instances where things don't point to a consistent result, off the top of my head Trenberths "missing heat"." For a substantial case it's pretty usual to be able to get three "off the top of your head" items. For example, off the top of my head, some of the convergent evidence is: 1. Independent sources of global temperature change. 2. Ecosystem changes showing a warming world (e.g. beetles devestating boreal forest) 3. Earlier onset of spring in the NH. There, easy. You refer us to one single item based on an inappropriately short time period, with a complex measurement model lacking the required precision to be sufficiently sensitive over a such short time period. If there really is the inconsistency at largethat you claim is possible, then you really should be able to do better than that "off the top of your head". Or will your attempts already be covered in the excellent list of one line rebuttals? -
gallopingcamel at 13:21 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
While I am just a scientist rather than a "Climate Scientist" you can count me as a supporter of the alleged 97% who claim that humans are affecting global warming. For me the interesting question is whether the "Anthropogenic" component of "Global Warming" is measurable. -
ProfMandia at 13:11 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
John, the only change I would make to the graphic is to place the three red people right up front. The 3% get much more press than they deserve because they have great ability to place themselves "front and center". Scott A. Mandia, Professor of Physical Sciences Selden, NY Global Warming: Man or Myth? My Global Warming Blog Twitter: AGW_Prof "Global Warming Fact of the Day" Facebook Group -
HumanityRules at 12:57 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
11 robhon Somebody like Roger Pielke Snr might say he has no say in how policies are being formed because his field of climate science is being effective ignored by the IPCC. From recollection he was part of the IPCC in the early days but left when he felt his viewpoint was being ignored. He now writes and often read blog, publishes and seems to still work to shape policy but all this as an outsider who can easily be ignored. The power in this example lies with the IPCC not Pielke. You're maybe over-stating the power of the blogosphere. The Copanhagen Summit wasn't scuppered by deniers, each nation went in with it's own agenda based on it's narrow nation interests not on whether they read WUWT or SkepticalScience. I actually think stalemate and continued talks was what most ultimately wanted. Still seen to be still working on the problem while not committing to something that will harm their economy or hand advantage to their competitors. It's an oft used tactic. -
scaddenp at 12:53 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Actually HR, since there is a suggestion that you think these points have some validity, perhaps you can show some evidence. 1) All variability has physical causes. Where is the evidence of natural variability that isnt adequate captured by known physics and accounted for? 2) We measure 3.7W/m2 of forcing from our GHG(cf <1 for solar min/max) and that is over-estimating? Again, where is the evidence for a more important factor. 3) We have?? Estimated at 0-0.4W/m2. Obviously we have NOT ignored the issue. Where is the evidence that this is underestimated. 4)Doubtful, but uncertainty cuts both ways. Suppose ECS is 6 not 3? How much risk to you like? -
mark2746 at 12:42 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
What do you get when you put 1oo climate scientists in a room? FEAR - because a world-wide press conference is about to start and not one of them remembered to bring the Skeptical Science list of one-line answers.Response: They've got an app for that now :-) -
scaddenp at 12:34 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
HR - the only climate scientist dissenting views that I have heard are either: 1/ There is an undiscovered natural variability or 2/ negative feedbacks gives us a lower sensitivity I'd have said IPCC treated your other points very thoroughly but I know that non-climate scientists have tried to push them. Want to list the climate scientists you think follow your ideas? Can any of them do physics? -
HumanityRules at 12:29 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
John, "It's not based just on theory or models or even just a single dataset but many different observations all pointing to a consistent result." This is a bit nebulous and too convenient for me. There are many instances where things don't point to a consistent result, off the top of my head Trenberths "missing heat". If that is any idea in climate science that fully satisfies your inquiring mind then... well I don't know. But your comment did get me thinking. "what are the ten most important climate science experiments" (or 20, or data sets or theories or whatever). Something that amounts to the complete picture (Somebody's going to tell me to go read the IPCC report). As well as a list of denier arguments how about the best of climate science, if you dare include all the limitations and caveats associated with the work. I realise you sort of do this on a daily basis, for which I'm grateful, but I'd be interested in that sort article. Maybe it's too much to sum up in one article.Response: I attempt to do that in the empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming. In truth, though, that page is in sore need of updating. I've yet to incorporate some of the human fingerprints plus I've learnt a few new "human fingerprints" in recent weeks that I'm desperate to blog about but just can't seem to get to. So on the to-do list is to blog about these other human fingerprints, then revamp the empirical evidence page, synthesising it all into a single, user-friendly, well-cited, easy-to-understand page. Just let me get through the other million things I have to do and I'll get onto that asap! :-) -
chris1204 at 12:27 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
John: When it comes to complex science, whether it be climate science or heart surgery or how a plane manages to stay up in the air, we defer to the experts who do this stuff for a living. Why? Because they know every nook and cranny of their area of expertise. Having seen the appalling standards of care tolerated in some areas of medical practice in Australia and having heard a few things about the safety culture of a well known Australian airline from an engineer ostracised by its management, I'm rather choosy about who I'd go to see about a medical problem and who I'd fly with. I'm not saying the 97% have got it all wrong or even that they haven't got all or most of it right. Like the rest of us, I can't go through the many thousands of peer reviewed papers (many of which contain scientific arguments that are way beyond my ken). But I do feel that focusing on majoritarian views actually distracts us from the excellent and stimulating science that so often appears on this site. I guess my problem stems in part from my work as a psychiatrist which includes a substantial slab of forensic or medicolegal reporting. Consequently, I've had an unusually high degree of exposure to systemic dysfunction in many of the institutions in which we normally trust (and which I have to trust when dealing with them in every day life because I have no choice - I would otherwise find myself reduced to a paranoid mess). -
Rob Honeycutt at 12:14 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Whoops. Sorry, I flipped that. If 3 Senators were all there were in one party they would have far less sway than the 3% of climate science contrarians currently have on climate policy in the US. -
Rob Honeycutt at 12:11 PM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Honestly, the issue isn't so much that there are the three that disagree with the consensus of the other 97. One expects that in science. It's that the main stream media puts the three on the same level (if not higher) as the 97. Think of it this way. What if 97 senators in the US Senate were from one party? How much sway would they have on policy. Certainly far less that the 3% of climate science contrarians currently have on climate policy. -
HumanityRules at 11:58 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
MattJ "cursed" wow! How about just excluded, blacklisted, demonised as in the pay of Big Oil........oh wait. -
Wayne Johnston at 11:52 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
You get local warming. -
MattJ at 11:51 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Answering #3: they will be cursed long before they are forgotten. For their intransigence is a major contributing factor to the incredibly stubborn delay of our political and social leaders in taking effective action to prevent a catastrophic rise in average surface temperature. There might not be as strikinga consensus concerning when we will start feeling the effects of this failure, but that won't stop me from placing my bet: my bet is that by the end of the 21st century, even the skeptics will have a hard time denying the onset of catastrophe. Even by 2150 only the stubborn will still be denying it. The rest of us will begin to feel it as crop failures and decreasing water supplies drive up food and water prices. -
michael sweet at 11:41 AM on 22 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Chris: Not all scientists as as sanguine about coral reefs as you http://www.sprep.org/att/irc/ecopies/pacific_region/607.pdf. To quote the summary: Reports of a recent study showing that 43% of 27 central-Pacific Atoll islands have grown in net area over recent decades, with only 14% of these studied islands decreasing in net land area, have led to claims that risks to these islands from projected sea level rise due to global warming have been overstated. The comments of the authors of the paper cited by the press, often out of context, have contributed to this false impression. Indeed the authors warn “while the islands are coping for now, any acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise could overtake the sediment build up”. This has not yet been peer reviewed, but clearly Tuvalu has reasons to worry. I am glad you feel Florida will have no problem with 1-2 meters more water. There is no reason to be concerned just because experts say the sea level will rise. -
HumanityRules at 11:39 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
It's not funny but...... three red guys in the back corner being ignored ;) I would have thought 100 of them would be green if you asked that question. Most of the so-called deniers I've read seem to accept CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that increasing CO2 is anthropogenic. From what I've read the so-called denier scientists seem to hold a range of ideas including. 1) We have focussed solely on the effect of CO2 while denying or ignoring natural variability. 2) We have over-estimated CO2's impact on the climate. 3) We have ignored other ways of how we changed the environment, such as land use. 4) We are still in the early stages of climate science either in our data collection or theories. We still have too much to learn before we can pass conclusions. The simple reduction of things to yes/no becomes a real problem when you're trying to assess were the science is at. (I can't help feeling sorry for those discriminated red guys. Some bring it on themselves and no doubt enjoy it but it strikes me some of them are just going were their science takes them) -
Jeff Freymueller at 11:39 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Sorry, no good joke. But if you put 100 scientists from any one field into a room, you will get plenty of arguments. A reasonable chance of some heated arguments. But most likely the arguments won't be about any of the things the denier side thinks are important -- because most or all of the people in the room will know that those things really are not important or not in dispute. John's guess on the 3% is probably a good one. I suspect that the 3% also include some who would have agreed if you said "probably changing" as opposed to "changing". They just have some doubts about one aspect or another (like the feedback question). -
Marcus at 11:38 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
I'd say the other 3 are not convinced, & are still looking for that elusive, exotic factor that might *really* be the cause. I'm completely fine with that because that's the way science works. Personally, I hope they *do* find that *other* factor, because it would be a great relief to me to know that humans aren't causing Global Warming. Personally, though, I feel that all the available evidence suggests otherwise. Also, even if AGW was disproved tomorrow, I'd still argue for a reduced reliance on fossil fuels on the basis of *general* pollution & resource sustainability!Response: The whole "maybe there's some other yet to be discovered cause" line of thinking fails to take into account that we're directly observing all this heat being trapped by CO2. We don't think CO2 is causing warming just because we've eliminated all the other options - we're actively observing an increased greenhouse effect at CO2 wavelengths. To deny man's influence, you need to not only find another cause but also explain what's happening to all the heat being trapped by CO2. -
Jeff Freymueller at 11:34 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
100 climate scientists walk into a bar, and ... -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:32 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
The other 3, I would say, have a level of cognitive dissonance that they're dealing with from a personal or political standpoint. It's not that they're bad scientists, they're human like all scientists. They're just finding the capacity to ignore the overwhelming evidence in favor of what they prefer to believe to be the truth. Beyond that, IF (a very monumental IF) they did manage to locate that "missing link" in climate science that showed that current warming was clearly NOT anthropogenic, then they would be vindicated and written into history for all time. Whereas if they are wrong they are more likely to be merely forgotten. -
Jeff Freymueller at 11:31 AM on 22 July 20103 levels of cherry picking in a single argument
#26 Marcel, it is my impression that the warming in the Arctic is always amplified relative to the more equatorial latitudes (presently it shows 3-4x the average global warming). There is some evidence that this may be true even for episodes of warming millions of years ago. (And presumably a similar factor applies for cooling episodes). I'm not sure its fully understood why this is so (my impression is that it is not fully understood). I see what you are getting at in asking for an explanation for the pattern of the last decade, but I am not certain whether or not anything other than the usual Arctic amplification is involved. Maybe somebody else here can answer that. The one thing that is pretty clear is that many of the real "hotspots" are in remote places where few people live, and thus there are few weather stations. Even here in Alaska, there are very few weather stations in the mountains where the glaciers are, mostly they are in or near towns or roads because that is easier and cheaper. -
John Brookes at 11:25 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
I suspect the other 3 have their hands over their ears, and are saying, "I can't hear you, I can't hear you,..." ;-) -
wanyden at 11:23 AM on 22 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
If the 97% agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, what do the other 3% say? Is it that they simply not convinced, or that the evidence does NOT point to AGW?Response: It is possible to track down what the 2 to 3% say - the Anderegg paper is based on public statements signed by climate scientists. So you can always track down which climate scientists have publicly signed statements of climate skepticism. My guess is the majority of them would agree that humans are raising CO2 levels and that higher CO2 causes warming, but that negative feedbacks will reduce the warming. A "Get out of jail free" card generously handed to us from the climate. This is the view of scientists like Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer. -
muoncounter at 10:59 AM on 22 July 20103 levels of cherry picking in a single argument
#26: "areas sampled by hadcrut have not warmed much during this decade. I would like to have some mechanism for this on the table. " There are a variety of consistent observations to be made here: Look at the LOTI records, which are broken into bands of latitude roughly 20 degrees wide. As you move north from the equator, there is consistently more warming. Look at CO2 for a variety of locations, as you move closer to the north pole, the difference between seasonal high and low is much larger than it is in the lower latitudes. Look at the ocean heating paper I referenced in #15; there are considerable differences in heat content between the various oceans. Whatever the mechanism, it seems to be consistently stronger as you move closer to the north pole. -
scaddenp at 08:46 AM on 22 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
johnd - GHG isnt the only positive feedback - albedo also comes into play. You might find Matthews & Weaver take on the issue interesting. Water vapour is more or less directly function of temperature so to get water vapour down you first have to reduce temperature. Zero emissions will also not immediately reduce GHG as warming will be still be affecting slow feedbacks in carbon cycle. I think that only the latest generation of climate models are capable of looking at this question in detail though. More expert opinion would be welcome. -
johnd at 08:23 AM on 22 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
scaddenp at 08:16 AM, I was thinking in terms of that positive feedback mechanism being a GHG itself, namely water vapour, and should any warming continue if atmospheric water vapour content stabilises or even falls over such a time frame? -
johnd at 08:02 AM on 22 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
scaddenp at 07:07 AM, re "15-20 years of flat or negative temperatures while GHGs rise would clearly invalidate AGW." Would the converse also apply, IE. 15-20 years of flat or negative GHG whilst temperatures rise? -
Peter Hogarth at 07:51 AM on 22 July 2010Models are unreliable
Pete Ridley at 22:54 PM on 21 July, 2010 I was intrigued by your note 2) which contains this: "A meta-analysis of all the articles written on the subject showed that the vast majority of experts believe that not only was the MWP widespread but that average temperatures were warmer than they are now" Perhaps this needs a bit of VV&T...? -
actually thoughtful at 07:27 AM on 22 July 2010Models are unreliable
And why do you want climate modelers to debate, other than as yet another delay tactic? Why don't you create a model that account for everything the AGW models do, and prove to the world that man-made CO2 is simply not an issue? The debate of ideas, not names, not titles, not one-liners is the debate that matters to me. So Pete Ridley, where is your competing, complete non-AGW theory of climate change, complete with models that have excellent hind-cast ability, and whose ability we can compare to Hansen 1988, or any of the newer, better models that have come out in the last 22 years? -
scaddenp at 07:07 AM on 22 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
Pete Ridley - "Some sceptics are arguing that the “slump”... ". And this opinion is based on what physics? 15-20 years of flat or negative temperatures while GHGs rise would clearly invalidate AGW. However, the point that Gavin is making is that models do not produce linear warming and demanding that do is a straw man. The actual pattern of temperature rise that you get in the model depends on how the model is initialised. The nature of the models is that are predicting climate not weather - trends over a 15-20 year. They do not have the skill to predict shorter periods and make no claim as such. Everyone might wish they do but so far this has not been possible. The predictions that do make are rather accurate and in this I mean the patterns of warming, not just the temperature trend. (eg warmer nights, arctic amplification, upper stratospheric cooling, warming ocean etc) "I would suggest that one shouldn’t assume that any of the models are able to make reliable predictions/projections of global climates even for just a decade from now, never mind to 2100." You can suggest butterflies in India are responsible for climate but until to you provide a basis for your suggestion, how would we take it seriously? This is to profoundly misunderstand the nature of the models. Hansen 1988 did very well for a model so primitive. My favourite analogy - put a large pot of water on a flame. You will have a hard time predicting the surface temperature distribution beyond a certain accuracy - however you can make the completely solid prediction that the pot will get warmer. -
Tom Dayton at 06:50 AM on 22 July 2010Models are unreliable
Pete Ridley, evidence of predictive ability was described in the original post at the top of this page. I suggest you read it. -
Ned at 06:15 AM on 22 July 2010Models are unreliable
actually thoughtfull and Pete Ridley, I suggest avoiding carrying over Pete's comments about user names from the previous thread. As far as I know there is no policy here of privileging "realistic-sounding full names" over others. Comments that disparage the choice to use a pseudonym are offtopic and will probably be deleted. -
Marcel Bökstedt at 06:08 AM on 22 July 20103 levels of cherry picking in a single argument
Tony Noerpel> Yes, the pacific oscillation could be part of the explanation. In the 1998 el Nino event there was certainly energy transfered from the sea to the atmosphere, which hasn't happend to the same extent later. But a complete explanation might involve a precise description of the global energy budget, and it seems that people can't do that yet. Jeff> I agree with what you write, but that does not explain why the areas sampled by hadcrut have not warmed much during this decade. I would like to have some mechanism for this on the table.
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