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Comments 11751 to 11800:

11751. Eclectic at 16:03 PM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       Philippe Chantreau @37  [and prior]

       you are of course correct, when you say that our mutual friend (Nowhearthis) cannot be taken seriously.

       He is atypical, in that he combines concern-trolling and the usual extremist venting (that political ideological extreme where callous selfishness views itself as virtuous).   As usual, there is a large dollop of wilful blindness to scientific fact & logic, and a large dollop of smoke-and-mirrors sophistry (or rhetorical posturing . . . call it what you will) which is the product of Motivated Reasoning.

       Probably at a deeper level, there is an intellect silently pleading to be freed from the emotional binds of denialism . . . and hoping that "Prince Philippe" or "Baron Red" (or anyone at SkS) can find the magic phrases which will convince the "other" part of the brain of its wrongheadedness?   Well, that might (or might not) explain the continual repetition of mangled & absurd arguments from our friend.

       There is some amusement value in engaging with the repetitious posts . . . counterbalanced by the tiresomeness of it all.   Yet hope springs eternal....

11752. RedBaron at 14:53 PM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @35 nowhearthis,

       Several answered the question, you just did not like the answer. But the question is a rhetorical trick, if any reputable scientist answered directly, it would discredit themselves and thus their answer.

       People here on this website are very well aware of these sorts of tricks and the logic fallacies that are used to create them. You won't be capable of tricking any of the regular members here. The only ones you'll be able to trick are denialists.

       Now you wanted originally absolute confirmation. You got an extra two Earth's to experiment with? One as a control and one to test mitigation strategies on? Oops. No you don't.

       But you also made unsupported claims about how horrible and costly the results of new research in mitigation would be to enact. Some may have proposed certain things that could potentially be costly, but you are ignoring the metaphorical "low fruit". That is mitigation strategies 100% benefial to everyone. The so called win/win strategy.

       'In the early 1970s, it dawned on me that no one had ever applied design to agriculture. When I realised it, the hairs went up on the back of my neck. It was so strange. We’d had agriculture for 7,000 years, and we’d been losing for 7,000 years — everything was turning into desert. So I wondered, can we build systems that obey ecological principles? We know what they are, we just never apply them. Ecologists never apply good ecology to their gardens. Architects never understand the transmission of heat in buildings. And physicists live in houses with demented energy systems. It’s curious that we never apply what we know to how we actually live.'-Bill Mollison

       That means we do have certain kinds of confirmation. Not the 100% absolute confirmation you requested, as that's just rhetorical nonsense. But there is quite a lot confirmed in trials and in the field already.  For example, I posted to you results from case study trial that shows an average 10 year sequestration rate of soil carbon via the LCP of 5-10 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr. I also showed 6 other studies from around the world where there are people confirmed to have reached sequestration rates in that range. (as well as studies showing when why and how other farmers failed to reach that rate)

       So since we have absolute confirmation at least some farmers from around the world can reach this high rate of sequestration, and we have at least some knowledge of when farmers have failed to reach such a high rate of sequestration, we can project what when and how changes in agriculture could be made to significantly mitigate AGW. It's a projection though. You couldn't be absolutely 100% sure until you actually did it.

       “Yes, agriculture done improperly can definitely be a problem, but agriculture done in a proper way is an important solution to environmental issues including climate change, water issues, and biodiversity.”-Rattan Lal

       The advantage with this conservative approach though is there would be minimal risk. There are no known nor projected negative side effects to any of these proposed changes. Quite the contrary, they are universally beneficial to economies (both local and macro), environment, public health, etc... There is no down side. So we should enact this part of the mitigation strategy immediately. (And sure enough we are, but slowly. Maybe too slowly.)

       "If all farmland was a net sink rather than a net source for CO2, atmospheric CO2 levels would fall at the same time as farm productivity and watershed function improved. This would solve the vast majority of our food production, environmental and human health ‘problems’." Dr. Christine Jones

       That leaves the other side of the carbon cycle. There are also certain parts of the emissions side with "low hanging fruit" that absolutely is beneficial to everyone. Higher efficiencies and less waste benefit everyone. Passive solar and passive geothermal in designs combined with better insulation and remodels of older buildings all helps significantly with no known down sides at all. These also are being done already and building codes around the world reflect this. Some countries are further behind than others of course, but this is absolutely beneficial to everyone and is already happening now!

       That leaves the problems though, excessive use of fossil fuels for inefficient and wasteful uses. This is what really needs focused on in my opinion. We need to speed up the natural replacement of fossil fuels with renewables right now. There should not ever be a new coal plant being built any more, and they should slowly be weaned out as the old plants get decomissioned. 

       That of course might hurt jobs in the antiquated and obsolete coal business, but in the new and modern solar wind and hydroelectric businesses that replace it can be found far more benefits to offset the losses. So while not absolute in benefits, the total net is a certain benefit.

       It's only when you try to take all fossil fuels to zero and too fast that you run into projected high cost negative side effects, shortages, and economic collapse. So don't do that! There are plenty of these 100% beneficial things we can do as "low fruit" that we know work without any new technologies needed. 

       And even better, most likely if we take on all of the "low fruit" there is a pretty good chance we won't need to make any "draconian" cuts. (to use your weighted term) That's not 100% absolute. WE need to try it and see. But it's pretty likely and MUCH better than the status quo. And since we must try to salvage as much of the environment as we can to avoid it causing our own collapse, this is something we must try, unequivocally.

       "Ecosystem function is vastly more valuable than the production and consumption of goods and services." -John D. Liu

11753. Philippe Chantreau at 13:20 PM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       Your "initial question" is nothing but a rethorical trick. It is asking for something both impossible and unnecessary and runs counter to any kind of logical thought process. I'm sure some can be fooled by such courtroom methods. If I have studies showing how smoking damages airways, their lining, the cells' DNA, how it promotes inflammation and platelet activation, how it is associated with a variety of conditions, I do not need a study also showing health outcomes of smokers who quit vs. those who continue in order to know that it will be beneficial to quit, would it be only to stop the ongoing damage. That is basic logic. Such studies will simply quantify exactly how far that benefit extends, how quickly it manifests and other such details, which may be useful but unnecessary to know that quitting will be beneficial. If there were several planets to experiment with, your rethorical question could be answered with great precision, but that's obviously not the situation. As it stands, it is sophistry.

11754. Philippe Chantreau at 11:48 AM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       The science is in MODTRAN and HITRAN that show with exquisite precision how infrared behaves in the atmosphere. They have been validated ad-nauseam. The science is in the TOA measurements, in the atmospheric energy budgets. The science of what CO2 does to infrared is established beyond the shadow of a doubt. The science is in the isotopic signature of fossil carbon, there is a large litterature showing that the recent and enormous increase is due to FF burning. It takes inferred reasoning to conme to the conclusion that limiting atmospheric CO2 is necessary to prevent the system from going in a territory entirely new for humans. If you're trying to argue that inferred reasoning should not be used when planning for the future you have given up all chance of being taken seriously. The science shows that warming is happening and already taking a considerable toll; it shows that anthropogenic CO2 is a major driver. How much of an effort does it take to reach the conclusion that said CO2 emissions should be reduced? This is nonsense. You are asking for proof that an action will have some effect without offering anything suggesting that it won't.

       Furthermore, I note that you are still not providing the level of proof that you are asking from others about your economic doom and gloom scenario. So you are basing you argument on a premise far more proof deficient than the logical idea that limiting the physical quantity of the cause of a problem will limit the extent of the problem.  I have pointed out that the World economy could absorb a 15 trillion loss from incompetence and greed without such extreme disatrous end as what you alluded. How about we spend half of that in energy transition for starters? That's just about the amount of money thesaurized in hidden accounts and tax heavens at any given time, money that ironically does not do anything, even for those who control it, because it has to be hidden.

11755. nowhearthis at 10:47 AM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       In defense of "repetition" - two reasons: 1) No one has provided any actual answer to my initial question.  They dance around the issue - but no answer.  This has prompted me to ask again since I feel the point keeps getting lost.  2) Many (most) responses are hostile confrontations (avoiding, or justifying the avoidance of the central question) trying to convince me climate change is real and man made.  I don't need convincing, I'm there and was all along.

       I keep trying to convey that I'm not the only person who will ask this question.  As regulation, taxation and sacrifice is demanded this will become a common topic.  There better be an answer to justify the policy.

       Philippe in the post directly above argues it is unimportant to validate or at least have reasonable testing that indicates effectiveness of a drug, product or method.  He states "there is no such thing as in-advance proof, ever", that may be, however there can be reasonable demonstration of effectiveness that provides a sound basis to proceed - particularly where it is on a massive scale and cost.  Isn't "science" in the title of this website?  What is the 'scientific method'?  Perhaps that is what I'm seeking and I have been phrasing in incorrectly.  Red Barron regurgitates a 'solar electric worker' talking point supposedly to destroy my concern with uneployment.  The problem is, his talking point is laughable in the macro context. 

       The issue is complex and requires a concerted effort.  Just getting everyone globally on the same page may be impossible - a likely prospect no one has countered.  Further, no one ever asked me what I think may make progress to a solution.  You're all too busy being argumentative, self rightous and critical of others who don't fall in line. 

       I posed a simple question and have been drawn into a bunch of pheriperal arguments and demonized.  It's clear no answer exists and that most here believe concensus based on theory is proof and we should proceed on faith.  It's clear no answer is to be found here.  I hoped for better.  I'm done arguing, I can do that with my wife and she's much better looking.

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Excessive repetition/sloganeering snipped.

11756. Philippe Chantreau at 10:14 AM on 3 March 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9
       

       I'm writing this request here because it's the latest thread: is it possible to update the escalator so that it shows all the data up to 2018?

11757. nigelj at 06:26 AM on 3 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       OPOF @ 27

       "Linking Climate Action to social corrections may be an effective way to help encourage moderate socially progressive conservatives to do the hard work of taking-over, breaking-apart, or breaking-up with their New United Right Tribe."

       It could work, but The Democrats have to have sound socio-economic ideas inserted into any GND. I would go with things like some form of universal healthcare and a decent social safety net, but also emphasise modern free trade, help for both workers 'and' business, deficits are bad, no walls but regulated immigration... so you are resonating with both liberals and moderate conservatives.

       Sorry if this is a political statement, but the GND has been made political. I don't want to see the environmental goals destroyed by a bad, one sided  list of other goals. Its too important to ignore.

11758. nigelj at 05:45 AM on 3 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       swampfoxh @28, you have an interesting background. And I agree with most of your comments.

       "The deforestation of the Amazon and Indonesia, alone, is enough to raise the worry lines on my forehead, yet many "peer reviewed" studies try to tell us that animal ag is "only 14%-18% of emissions. This area needs a lot more work. "

       You cant really put deforestation under animal contributions because deforestation has a range of causes (grazing land, crops, urban projects).  It needs a separate category.  It does however obscure the contribution of animals, but nothing to be done about that.

       Maybe animlas contribute more than the numbers show, but people are already getting pretty aware of the methane problem and dietary issues with high meat consumption problems of battery cage farming. I think things are going in your favour generally!

11759. Philippe Chantreau at 04:05 AM on 3 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       The main point is not being missed at all. The main point is that you're long on rethoric, short on everything else, and demonstrably arguing in bad faith. Having an experimental vaccine succeed within the framework of a study is not proof that a large scale campaign will eradicate the disease, far from it. We never know what level of protection it is going to grant to a population until the population is vaccinated. You argue beside my point on CFCs by going to the economic aspect, which is ironic, considering that hubristic pundits back then promised economic collapse from phasing out the stuff (Sallie Baliunas said it would cost trillions). You're not showing that there was advance proof that the protocol would work, because there is no such thing. You talk about replacements and costs. The effectiveness of the intervention has no direct relation to its cost but both cost and effectiveness have a role in the cost/benefit analysis. You are saying that the effectiveness has to be known exactly before the cost/benefit analysis can proceed; that is total nonsense because the true effectiveness can never be known in advance, and it wasn't in the case of the Montreal Protocol.

       The reality about any kind of large scale action is that its effectiveness can not be measured until it has been implemented and given time to produce its expected results. There is no such thing as in-advance proof, ever. Because a vaccine works in a study sample, we attempt its large scale implementation but the true effectiveness can not be known in advance. Because the radiative effects of CO2 are well known and the current increase can be attributed to FF burning, we must decrease FF use. It really is that simple.

       As for your representation of the current effects of CC, it is laughable. Houston experienced three 500-years type of rain events, 3 years in a row, with about 125 billions of losses just for Harvey. California is experiencing extreme rain and floods right on the tail of devastating fires brought by drought conditions. Europe has been struggling with chronic droughts interrupted by violent rains and flooding. Last summer, Northern Europe saw extreme temperatures all the way to the Arctic circle and experienced massive forest fires. The heat was experienced all around the Northern hemisphere. Property values on the US coasts have already started to reflect sea level rise. As for hurricanes, any careful examination of the litterature shows that no consistent prediction of frequency in the future conditions exists. What does exist is the expectation that tropical storms and hurricanes will undergo rapid intensification and cause higher rain fall, which was clearly demonstrated on several occasions, the latest just last October. Pretty much all the predicted effects of CC are materializing right before our eyes, with their associated costs. The depth of the denial that it takes to not see it is truly a wonder.

       And what absolute proof do you have that the economic devastation you're predicting will actually occur? One could easily turn the table on you and demand proof that the consumption society model can be extended to 8 billion people without causing catastrophic losses of ecosystem services that are vital to all people. You don't have that proof, therefore, according to your reasoning, the generalization of that model should be stopped.

       I wish you could have asked to all the pretentious clowns in the finance world putting together CDOs in the 2000s if they had absolute proof that their clever schemes were safe for the World financial markets. Their hubris cost about 15 trillions. And yet, the damage was a far cry from what happened post 1929. Incidentally, this proves (you seem to like the word) that we could spend up to 15 trillions on an energy transition over a few years; it wouldn't be entirely painless but nowhere near the complete worldwide disaster you're trying to portray. We know that for sure because this cost was born by the World economy following the 2008 fiasco, no in-advance proof required.

11760. swampfoxh at 03:50 AM on 3 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       TO: nigelj

       Nope, not an animal rights person. I am an organic farmer (plants only and using no animal fertilizer).  I teach a 3 hour course called "Climate Change" Impact of an Outlaw Species" and am always perplexed at how animal agriculture can fly below the radar with respect to its ousized contribution to GGEs.  The deforestation of the Amazon and Indonesia, alone, is enough to raise the worry lines on my forehead, yet many "peer reviewed" studies try to tell us that animal ag is "only 14%-18% of emissions.  This area needs a lot more work.  I suggest we not look at animal ag, the global industry, ...we should proceed from the following:

       "What if there was no animal agriculture (animals owned as property) on planet earth?  What emissions (and other climate problems) would we not have?"  We would not have substantial emissions from deforestation, desertification, eutrophication, acidification of our oceans, outsized fresh water usage along with the environmental costs to move water around, we'd have more suitable and sustainable wild animal and native plant habitat...hugely reduced medical costs from healthier populations, no more raising, feeding, slaughtering, packaging, transporting, refrigerating, waste management (or even kitchen garbage disposers) vastly less pesticides, herbicides, endocrine disruptive artificial homones, antibiotic resistances...and the list of benefits could go on...and on.   

11761. One Planet Only Forever at 02:14 AM on 3 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       An important point should be added to the following well-made point:

       "... rebuilding the home will create investments and jobs, which would dampen a disaster’s impact on the national economy. But as a society, we would consider these traumatizing losses quite harmful and well worth preventing for ethical reasons."

       The rebuilding "Economic Plus" after a disaster is actually an "Economic-Social Negative". An potential exception would be if the original item was unsustainable and harmful and the rebuilding was done in a way that was more sustainable than the original developed item.

       The need to rebuild is most likely a distraction from, impediment to, improvements for the future, a complete negative effect that needs to be recovered from, a step back from improvement. Even a complete rebuilding only partially recovers the loss of improvement that had occurred (exception being sustainable correction).

       Also, the point does not include the environmental damage that negatively affect human improvements into the future.

       And an extension of that understanding is the awareness that no economic math can justify imposing negative consequences on Others. And the future generations of humanity are the largest group of Others. And that understanding points out the added flaw of any economic evaluation that pretends that current day perceptions of wealth based on unsustainable and harmful human activity will have "future value". And it leads to understanding that it is even more flawed to believe that such perceptions of wealth would inevitably increase in value (a related understanding is that it is incorrect to 'discount' the future costs of failure to reduce climate change impacts).

       Stock Market corrections and the 2008 global fiscal correction prove the fallacy of that kind of thinking.

       That understanding can also lead to the understanding that the current directions of development by Unite the Right political groups may be a bigger threat to the future of humanity than Climate Change.

       Rebuilding the USA with sustainable helpful corrections is unlikely to happen through compromises with the current developed United Right collective of sub-tribes that resist sustainable improvements or corrections of what has developed. The recent history of actions by that group indicate a significant amount of correction is required to have it not be harmful, to have it be helpful participants in the development of sustainable improvements/corrections for the future of humanity.

       The recent GOP in control of the House, Senate and Presidency easily reversed climate change improvements and corrective actions made by the Obama Administration. They failed to reverse the Heath Care improvements and corrective actions. And a major part of Trump's winning was successfully unjustifiably appealing to the easily impressed and easily angered less fortunate workers in 'key regions' of America (promising things like coal jobs that will never be delivered, and suggesting that blocking immigration and demonizing immigrants is helpful). Linking Climate Action to social corrections may be an effective way to help encourage moderate socially progressive conservatives to do the hard work of taking-over, breaking-apart, or breaking-up with their New United Right Tribe.

11762. MA Rodger at 23:45 PM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       AEBanner @214,

       If the atmosphere were solely composed of N2 & O2, it would be correct to state that such an atmosphere does not radiate IR. Note that it would happily radiate at shorter wavelengths.

       And if the atmosphere (complete with H2O, CO2 etc) were heated to contain more energy, the N2 & O2 will be bashing into H2O, CO2 etc more vigorously. That will result in the H2O, CO2 etc radiating more IR and so at the top of the atmosphere that increase in IR will be an increased energy loss to space. So unless you have a mechanism to stop that increased energy loss or an energy flux to keep the atmospheric energy levels topped up, the temperature increase will die away back to a temperature that can be maintained.

       You are, however ignoring that fundamental problem with your grand theory and reference IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4 which shows the increased energy content for different parts of the world system for the periods 1961-2003 (blue) and 1993-2003 (burgundy).

       

       IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4

       To provide the 159Zj total change over the period 1961-2003=42 years, that would require an input of 3.8Zj/year or a global warming of 0.24Wm^-2. (This would be 0.55Wm^-2 to provide the 89Zj over the shorter period 1993-2003.)

       Yet we have established that the energy from anthropogenic FF-use & nuclear power generation in 2017 is only 0.03Wm^-2. It would be significantly less in earlier years.

       So even without the increased energy flux lost to space by the warmed atmosphere, your grand theor cannot account for the accumulated energy within the global system.

       Simply put, it don't add up.

11763. AEBanner at 22:50 PM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       Energy can cause Global Warming

       RedBaron @ 213

       Thank you for your comments.

       You claim that most of the anthropogenic energy is radiated back into space.  

       But how do you think that happens?  The anthropogenic energy is caused by burning fuels, and so liberates sensible heat, that is increased kinetic energy of the molecules in the atmosphere.  This is not radiant energy, and so cannot be radiated away.  In any case, nitrogen and oxygen molecules do not radiate. 

       You also claim that energy cannot be accumulated in the Earth's system.  I refer you back to the IPCC report I gave in my post on wordpress

       https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

       which shows that the total change in Energy Heat Content from 1961 to 2003, from all sources, was 15.9*10^22 Joules.  This is indeed a store of energy.

       I should be grateful if you would please let me know the other fundamental flaws you claim I have made.

11764. MA Rodger at 22:02 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       nowhearthis @26,

       You reply to my questioning @22 thus:-

       "To answer your question, I wrote: "CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control". The EPA, AMS, NASA and others, all distribute content making that claim. Are they wrong? I made no conclusion or inference on the topic beyond the statement."

       So if the EOA, AMS, NASA and others "all distribute content making that claim," you should have little difficulty providing a link to some of this 'distributed content'. Such a link would be helpful as your meaning remains entirely opaque and frankly nobody knows what you are talking about.

11765. Eclectic at 19:57 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       Nowhearthis @30  [and prior] :-

       <" still haven't gotten a response to my original question ">  (unquote)

       Nowhearthis: there is no possible answer to your question because (as you were already aware) the simple truth is that there is no AGW problem.

       You were quite right all along.   I consulted the gurus and pundits at the WattsUpWithThat website [the world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change] and I was assured that there is no AGW and thus no AGW problem at all for you to worry about.   The WUWT article authors and the many posters in the comments columns, were almost unanimous that CO2 has no effect on world temperature.

       ~ Because there is no empirical evidence of CO2 greenhouse action : no confirmed reproducible experimental or observational evidence whatsoever.

       ** Some of the pundits proved that there has been absolutely no statistically-significant warming in the past 50 years (suggestion to the contrary by 99.9% of climate scientists, is due to the scientists' corruption incompetence and conspiratorial hoaxing and shameless data adjustment).

       ** Other pundits, less sanguine, proved that the borderline slight warming was nothing more than a cyclical Natural Variation deriving from a 60-year oceanic cycle; or a 1000-year oceanic cycle (separately or combined with sundry other oceanic cycles +/-  a stadium wave).

       ** Still other pundits posited that the very slight warming was occurring primarily because the Earth's disk had become slightly less oblique to the sun's rays (this obliquity following a multi-decadal sine wave variation ~ and very fortunately cyclic, because otherwise at a super-maximum obliquity . . . everything would fall off the lower edge of the disk).

       So . . . no problemo    ;-)

11766. RedBaron at 18:27 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @30 nowhearthis,

        This is the New Mitigation Research thread, not the GND thread.

       So yet again a logic fallacy. This time it's the false dichotomy. Maybe your critique could potentially be valid in the specific case of the GND. I know already several parts were already retracted as unrealistic. But they do not necessarily apply to new research in mitigation strategies in general. And they certainly do not apply to my conservative strategy I detailed for you above.

       And just because your question shows ignorance of risk analysis, doesn't mean you question wasn't answered.

11767. nigelj at 18:18 PM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       nowhearthis @25

       "I don't expect a "perfect solution", just proof any of the solutions actually work (to stop or even slow change); others will demand this proof."

       Well ok its reasonable to want that, but you are repeating yourself. For the second time you will not get the sort of proof you want because we cannot do an experiment with the planet in a laboratory. All we have is good evidence that we can fix the problem in the same way we have good evidence penicillin will cure a problem. You are not saying why that is not enough for you. The IPCC has good evidence, and you are clearly not accepting this, but that does not make it untrue. You have failed to counter it with better evidence.

       "You write: "Scientists and the general public know this [the specifics of planetary CO2) from school" "I dispute that. "

       I did not say that. I said school children know CO2 doesn't make up a huge part of the atmosphere, and they know this much. Its common knowledge. Now the more pertinent point I made is science tells us small changes in quantities of CO2 have serious effects on the climate. Where is your counter evidence? You still haven't provided any. I'm sure you would know many examples of how small changes or quantities  can modulate large changes, like transistor amplifiers, low concentrations of certain drugs etc.

       We can play this game all day, but everyone can see you are just repeating yourself.

       "Even the war effort of WW2 didnt require significant curtailment of freedoms and some police state" 75-80 million deaths, concentration camps, POW camps and military occupation of entire countries was not a "significant curtailment of freedoms"?

       Strawman again! :) That was a consequence of prisoners of war. Nothing there is relevant to the climate issue. A more pertinent point is the massive economic transformation during the war time economy did not crash the economy or cause mass unemployment as you claim the GND would do. Now I'm not saying a rapid transformation over 20 years for exampe to renewable energy would be easy, just that you are not providing any real evidence it would be as destabilising as you claim. The war effort suggests it wouldn't be. In fact the standard of living actually improved in America during WW2, probably due to the stimulus effect of the war spending.

       And I'm on your side in several respects, eg I dont like totalitarian  and dictatorial government etc, but we absolutely don't need this to combat climate change. A carbon fee and dividend is a market mechanism and doesn't require these things. Infrastructure programmes don't require curtailing freedoms.

       "Nobody could prove we would be able to get to the moon but we did" "There were several Soviet lunar missions that provided PROOF of the ability to reach the moon beginning in the 1950's. Apollo 8, in a prelude to landing on the moon, provided PROOF we could achieve lunar orbit and return a vehicle containing several astronauts to earth."

       You totally missed the point here. Nobody knew we could even put a spacecraft outside of earths orbit until we did. Theres a first time for anything. In fact we have much better proof that renewable energy reduces CO2 emissions. While the totality of the GND is not 100% proven, we do not need 100% proof, and can have good confidence it is soundly based (in a technology sense, put aside the social ideas for another day), and you are not giving me reasons to doubt that.

       "Nobody is saying stop fossil fuel use by tomorrow" "True, but there are those who want it done ASAP and that's not going to happen. People will demand proof and if unproven "solutions" don't show progress, greater sacrifice will be sought and meet greater resistance."

       I think the time frames of 2050 are attainable, quicker perhaps. Economic reports like the Stern Report put mitigation costs in America at 500 billion a year approx. This is not unaffordable. Its what your opiod crisis is costing you each year. Yes I can sympathise people will demand proof things will work, but public polling by Pew research show the majority want more done to tackle climate change, and more renewable energy, so they appear satisfied solutions do exist. The problem is inertia with elected officials. The rest of your comments are hypothetical.

       "We have good information that mitigation strategies would work, and that should be good enough for any sensible person" There's the meat of the matter: "would" Tell that "sensible person" he cannot heat his home, own an automobile or use airline transportation you will learn "would work" is not "good enough" very quickly. Even the imposition of a simple carbon tax in France, resulted in riots. "

       Nothing about climate mitigation means people can't heat their homes.  The job is for generators to transform the electricty grid and costs are affordable as I suggested. Nobody has to go cold and nobody is expected to make huge cuts to electricity use. Your comments are just endless strawmen, and lifted form denialist blogs as I have seen them before word for word almost. 

       "I'm completely on board with renewables but they are, at present, incapable of replacing existing power generation. "

       Another unproven assertion. Research by Jacobsen has shown renewables and storage can replace fossil fuel generation. Published studies by Lazard, a leading expert, show wind power is now one of the cheapest forms of generation and solar power is close behind.

       "The big problem is: The sun doesn't shine all the time and storage technology (like power wall) are insufficient.

       Have a look at the huge Tesla battery storage system in southern Australia. This is the way of the future along with pumped hydro storage. They are building this and have billions of dollars commited to more. Read the related articles recently on this very website, rather than the material you are copying off outdated denialist blogs.

       "It is my personal opinion that technology will get us out of the delemma we're in and Draconian unproven solutions like the GND are a waste of enerby. "

       The GND is based on technology!

       "Re. IPCC documentation, can you point me to those that provide proof that's not speculative? "

       There is nothing speculative in this. Its based on empirical studies, historical data and studies, mathematics, experiments,  deatilked modelling, and the laws of physics. 

       "NThat which I have read, don't meet that standard. This is my quest."

       Nothing would appear to meet your standard because you have already decided what you want to believe for what I suspect and political, ideological and emotive reasons. I suggest try and put them aside and look at the science in the IPCC reports which is good science. Then we need to consider solutions and the economics. Not saying I dont have political views, but I try to put them aside.

       I think if you just go on repeating yourself and dont provide some hard evidence the moderator is going to get annoyed! But thanks for the civil discussion.

11768. nowhearthis at 17:24 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       Red Barron

       O.K. I'll tell you again: Let's examine what you label "faulty premise"  You state "Solar employs more people in the U.S. Electricity Generation than Oil, Coal and Gas combined" to counter my claim GND would cause "massive unemployment".  The flaw is, your "count" only pertains to electricity generation.  When you look at the industries as a whole the Fossil Fuel workforce is around 1.9 million vs 374,000 in the solar field.  Then when you add in the fossil fueled automobile industry add 2 million at car dealers, another 940,000 in manufacturing and another 940,000 in the gas station industry.  What about large industrial plants that produce steel, cement, etc. - the building blocks of our society along with all the jobs involved implementing their materials.  Then move on to all the construction workers who use fossil fueled vehicles to go to work, transport materials, etc. and add in the airline industry, alll the food service, delivery jobs, on and on.  Your use of an "electrical generation" pigeon hole is quite silly.  The ripple effect of significant curbing of fossil fuels will result in an employment cataclism and cratering of our economy.  "wild claims" - really?

       I still haven't gotten a response to my original question.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] You are now skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. You have posed your "original" question multiple times and multiple people have responded do it with objective science-based answers. It's time to move on.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site. 
        
       Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion.  If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

        

11769. nowhearthis at 17:01 PM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       NigelJ

       I don't expect a "perfect solution", just proof any of the solutions actually  work (to stop or even slow change); others will demand this proof.

       You write: "Scientists and the general public know this [the specifics of planetary CO2) from school"  I dispute that.   Based on the Annenberg survey, only 36% of people can name the three branches of government and 35% can't even name one, much less grasp the nuances of climate composition.   "Even the war effort of WW2 didnt require significant curtailment of freedoms and some police state"   75-80 million deaths, concentration camps, POW camps and military occupation of entire countries was not a "significant curtailment of freedoms"?  Even in America, isolated from the war, there were interrment camps, forced rationing and other governmental mandates that curtailed freedom.  "Nobody could prove we would be able to get to the moon but we did"  There were several Soviet lunar missions that provided PROOF of the ability to reach the moon beginning in the 1950's.  Apollo 8, in a prelude to landing on the moon, provided PROOF we could achieve lunar orbit and return a vehicle containing several astronauts to earth.

       "Nobody is saying stop fossil fuel use by tomorrow"  True, but there are those who want it done ASAP and that's not going to happen.  People will demand proof and if unproven "solutions" don't show progress, greater sacrifice will be sought and meet greater resistance.

       "We have good information that mitigation strategies would work, and that should be good enough for any sensible person"  There's the meat of the matter: "would"   Tell that "sensible person" he cannot heat his home, own an automobile or use airline transportation you will learn "would work" is not "good enough" very quickly.  Even the imposition of a simple carbon tax in France, resulted in riots. 

       I'm completely on board with renewables but they are, at present, incapable of replacing existing power generation.  I believe solar is the future of energy and technologies like black nanotubes, thermophotovotaics and perovskite hold great promise.  The big problem is: The sun doesn't shine all the time and storage technology (like power wall) are insufficient.  It is my personal opinion that technology will get us out of the delemma we're in and Draconian unproven solutions like the GND are a waste of enerby.  Read 'Bottomless Well' by Peter Huber to see where I come from.

       Re. IPCC documentation, can you point me to those that provide proof that's not speculative?  That which I have read, don't meet that standard.  This is my quest.

11770. RedBaron at 15:45 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @28 nowhearthis,

       Again, faulty premise without evidence. You really are just sloganeering.

       Solar Employs More People In U.S. Electricity Generation Than Oil, Coal And Gas Combined

       So tell me again how renewables "crater their economies, give up modern convienences and have massive unemployment "

       I already explain to you how beneficial the changes in agriculture could be. As you can see renewable energy can be beneficial too. Yet you still keep making the unsubstantiated claim that AGW mitigation strategy must be harmful to economies and requires people to "sacrifice" their good standards of living. Just the opposite is true.

       Well first off a conservative AGW mitigation strategy improves lives, and secondly it's ignoring the problem that will cause all the harm. AGW mitigation strategy has a purpose to improve standards of living, not destroy them. We have examples of what happens if we ignore this too:

       The Ominous Story of Syria's Climate Refugees

       I can tell you from experience, if you continue making wild claims without evidence, you won't get far here. But even worse, you will have missed an opportunity to help improve society by avoiding this horible fate that awaits us if we do nothing.

       

       You are more than welcome to debate here, but no one I ever saw post here gets away without making sure they support their position with reputable evidence. Not you, not me, not anyone. Support your spurious claims and logic fallacies or withdraw them.

11771. nowhearthis at 14:33 PM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       Phillippe Chantreau

       The main point is being missed. You cannot expect people to crater their economies, give up modern convienences and have massive unemployment without proof those sacrifices are effective. People in general don't grasp the nuance of CC and will have viceral reaction to the things proposed and in the GND.

       Proof exists for this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/world/europe/france-fuel-carbon-tax.html That was just a simple tax, imagine the magnitude of reaction for GND policies. It can only come at the price of freedom/liberty and at the end of a gun.

       You must have clear, verified proof if you want to sell these sacrifices.  I'm not the first to ask and millions more come behind me.  CFC was addressed with alternatives and little to no sacrifice, nothing on the scale of CC mitigation theory.  Jenner had clinical proof of the effectiveness of vaccine therapy (smallpox) over a century prior to the campaign you cite.  No such verifiable proof or easy answer exists, that I have seen, to support CC strategies.   

       One response tried to turn the tables claiming CC disasters are proven, in his mind perhaps but not in the general publics.  One of the big indicators claimed was hurricane activity.  The facts work against his argument when you look at things like this:  https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity  The difference over time is insignificant and the average of storms reaching America are apparently down from over a century ago.  This isn't a compelling argument and generates skepticism.  Ice storms and abnormally cold weather also undermine CC alarm.  THE MORAL OF THE STORY: It's a hard sell without proof.  Got any?

11772. nowhearthis at 14:12 PM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Michael Sweet

       I can appreciate your post, except the part "Reducing CO2 emissions is the only way to prevent more disaster" I have seen no proof to support that.
       The main point is being missed. You cannot expect people to crater their economies, give up modern convienences and have massive unemployment without proof those sacrifices are effective. People in general don't grasp the nuance of CC and will have viceral reaction to the things in the GND.

       Proof exists for this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/world/europe/france-fuel-carbon-tax.html That was just a simple tax, imagine the magnitude of reaction for GND policies. It can only come at the price of freedom/liberty and at the end of a gun.

       You better have proof if you want to sell it. I'm not the first to ask and millions more come behind me.

11773. Eclectic at 11:52 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Nowhearthis @20 ,

       my reply @13 was very careful to address the essence of your @11 post.

       The essence, the central part [even if you failed to appreciate its centrality] was an illogical piece of nonsense ~ and that is why your whole post was a failure (a failure both before and after the moderator pruned it).

       Sorry, Nowhearthis, but you are mostly making a lot of rhetorical posturing, and you are failing to achieve common sense logic.   You really do need to educate yourself about climate science & human history.

       #

       Michael Sweet, you forgot to mention that Nowhearthis had changed tack a bit (in his @18 post) to introduce the strawman argument that greenies (or someone) had been attempting to make human activity "stop cold" [unquote].   A strawman big enough for the Burning Man festival?   ;-)

11774. nigelj at 11:42 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       "CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control".

       I know this already. Scientists and the general public know this from school. It is significant of course, but is not the key issue to consider. The more useful thing to say is we know small quantities of CO2 can alter the climate, from scientific research and summarised in the  IPCC studies. Natural additions of CO2 are too slow to be a concern. We are changing things at a very fast rate that creates enormous problems.

       If you disagree, please provide evidence with citations and links.

       "I don't claim to know what attributes to ALL the rise, I believe there is a component resulting from VITAL human activity, most of which you cannot stop cold, without a war, or subjecting humanity to an authoritarian police state."

       Strawman. Nobody is saying stop fossil fuel use by tomorrow, we still have time to phase things down in a planned way. Major projects have obviously been undertaken in the past without the need for marshall law or curtailing freedoms. Even the war effort of WW2 didnt require significant curtailment of freedoms and some police state, and that was a much more immediate thing to deal with.

       The rest of what you say is arbitrary wild claims, with no foundation provided, so can be dismissed until you provide some evidence.

       "The "essence" of my posts: "What demonstrated proof exists to show any of the proposed CC mitigation strategies, actually significantly reverse CC?" Has not been answered."

       It doesn't need to be answered because we dont have to reverse climate change, only stop it or slow it down very substantially. We also don't need absolute proof of concept, before humans change things whether climate issues or anything else. For example many elements of human progress have been made without "proof" as such. Nobody could prove we would be able to get to the moon but we did.

       We have good information that mitigation strategies would work, and that should be good enough for any sensible person. The IPCC has covered mitigation in detail. If you disagree, provide some detailed reasoning why good information is not sufficient for you, and some evidence with citations if you think typical mitigation strategies would not work.

       "First, I have made no assertion "

       You have made several assertions, and with no backing evidence, starting with "I believe there is a component resulting from VITAL human activity, most of which you cannot stop cold, without a war, or subjecting humanity to an authoritarian police state." Here is another "Before we trash our economy, handicap our ability to heat our homes/offices in the winter, push society back 150 years and throw our world into chaos".

       "The CC issue exists on an evolving, dynamic playing field and today's "solutions" may be impotent."

       Sophistry. If we have reduced CO2 emissions we have reduced the probability of large problems. We understand tipping points, when they are likely to occur and their probabilities and we still have time.

       Claiming we should do nothing because we don't have perfect knowledge is stupidity.

11775. Philippe Chantreau at 11:37 AM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       I take issue with the "CO2 generation." In fact, only humans truly generate CO2 on Earth on a very large scale, by combining fossil carbon with oxygen. All the other sources of CO2 only cycle and recombine carbon into CO2. The exception is volcanoes, but they release CO2, they don't generate it. There is a large body of science that shows how human produced CO2 is beyond a doubt responsible for the current increase. I don't see anything from nowhearthis that really puts that into doubt. As for his last question, it is sort of asking before the Montreal protocol for definitive proof that phasing out CFCs was going to have a positive effect. Or asking for proof, before the 1960's smallpox immunization campaign that the campaign would have the desired result. Both of these "proofs" would have been absolutely impossible to produce. It is a demand that is impossible to satisfy in any situation.

       It is reminiscent of the denier's method that consists of attempting to argue that inferred reasoning has no place in science. Same old. 

11776. michael sweet at 11:12 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Noehearthis,

       The problem is that you are arguing from a completely false premise.  Hundreds of studies has shown that renewable energy will be cheaper, cause the economy to expand, provide more jobs and result in much less pollution and bad health effects.  See Jacobson 2018, the Stern Report or the hundreds of papers cited by Jacobson.

       In contrast, all peer reviewed studies have found that BAu results in complete disaster and economic ruin.  Please provide a peer reviewed study that proves that BAU will not result in complete disaster.

       In any case, in a few decades fossil fuels will run out.  Anyone less than 30 will live in  a renewable energy economy or the economy will collapse from lack of fuel.  Why ruin the environment before making the switch?

       Since this is a scientific site you are required to cite peer reviewed studies that show that BAU will not result in complete calamity.  Please cite data to support your wild claim that BAU is economically sound.

11777. nowhearthis at 10:53 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       The moderator chose to scrub my comment TWICE! (he gets props for paying attention), which was in compliance with his rules.  If there is a reason for his actions I'd appreciate him pointing it out.  I'm reposting the comment below - again.   I expect it to be deleted and my login denied; actions that will provide powerful proof a diversity of opinion and SKEPTICAL questioning are not welcome here.

       Thank you to all who have replied.

       
       To the moderator: I have read your comments policy, fully appreciate its content and support your measures to maintain reasonable dialog. That said, I've not violated any of the rules, particularly "sloganeering", as you alledge. Your rule states: "Comments consisting of simple assertion of a myth already debunked". First, I have made no assertion and second (and most important) no one has "debunked" my question, or provided a valid answer. I've gotten two forms of response: 1) discussion trying to demonstrate the validity of anthropogenicclimate change and 2) those avoiding the question, and/or discrediting me as a "denier" or "troll" and/or mischaracterize my comment (like the one above declaring I "asserted ..... CO2 rise is mostly natural" when I wrote "most CO2 generation is outside human control").  I've commented on two threads, both of which, based on their content, are relevant to the question I raise.

       If you're going to have a website with the name "skeptical", you should welcome a skeptical point of view. Otherise, you have an absence of rational, thoughtful discussion and an echo chamber where like minds, simply reinforce their own belief system, right or wrong.

       Before we trash our economy, handicap our ability to heat our homes/offices in the winter, push society back 150 years and throw our world into chaos, shouldn't we demand proof those sacrifices do what's promised?  I stated America is a small percentage of the global population, most of which is accelerating it's use of fossil fuel and demanding escallating 1st world living standards. The CC issue exists on an evolving, dynamic playing field and today's "solutions" may be impotent. A "global consensus" is highly unlikely, the French can't even impose a carbon tax without major pushback and riots. Let's be real, the Paris accords were a "show pony" with little teeth or actual committment.

       
       If we expect people to fall in line and make dramatic sacrifice promised to be "solutions" without proof, good luck. It will take a capitulation of liberty/freedom and an oppressive, authoritarian police state to make that work.  We better have a good answer to my question:
       "What demonstrated proof exists to show any of the proposed CCmitigation strategies, actually significantly reverse CC?"
       Responses claiming it's impossible to know or determine are essentially saying "we don't have any" and don't cut it in changing hearts and minds. The question is NOT "illogical", it's fundamental and the "illogical" characterization is absurd. As somone routinely commenting in public media and involved in public policy debate, I'm sincerely looking for a valid answer.

       Moderator Response:

       [DB]  Moderation complaints snipped.  Suggestion: read the Comments Policy, adhere to it like everyone else does (with no troubles or complaining).

11778. nowhearthis at 10:50 AM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       MA Rodger 

       To answer your question, I wrote: "CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control".  The EPA, AMS, NASA and others, all distribute content making that claim.  Are they wrong?  I made no conclusion or inference on the topic beyond the statement.

       Still waiting to hear the answer to the simple question:  "What demonstrated proof exists to show any of the proposed CC mitigation strategies, actually significantly reverse CC?"   If these "strategies" are valid, there should be some proof to show that - otherwise it's  conjecture.  If you cannot validate your beliefs, you should be questioning them.

11779. michael sweet at 10:46 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Nowhearthis,

       If you continue to repost deleted comments the moderators will ban you.

       You have the argument completely backwards.  There is absolute proof that the current path (called business as usual or BAU) is a disaster and will result in a complete calamity if we continue on it.  Scientists predicted that adding CO2 to the atmosphere would increase temperature 180 years ago, in 1896 Arhennius estimated the amount of warming correctly and Hansen's 1989 projections have been right on target.  We have 180 years of correct projections that show CO2 is a disaster.

       The current changes that we see in climate have resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars damage per year for the past decade and killed millions.  Future damages are projected to be extraordinarily if we continue BAU.  Some serious projections include  the extinction of humans (that is unlikely).

       SInce it has been proven without doubt that the current path is a disaster the question is what we can do.  Reducing CO2 emissions is the only way to prevent more disaster.

       My doctor never offers proof that he will cure me.  If he says I have a disease that will kill me if I do nothing but he has a good chance of curing it with some medicine I take the medicine.  There is never proof for what will happen in the future.  Past experience proves that BAU is a disaster.  

       Please give me absolute 100% proof that BAU will not result in a disaster even worse than we have already experienced.  If you cannot offer absolute proof that BAU is a disaster than we must take action to prevent the projected disaster caused by CO2 emissions.

11780. RedBaron at 10:26 AM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @23 Nowhearthis,

        You said, "Still waiting to hear the answer to the simple question: "What demonstrated proof exists to show any of the proposed CC mitigation strategies, actually significantly reverse CC?"

       and you said earlier,

       "Once again, I ask: Is there a paper, study, analysis, etc. that PROVES (not promises or predicts) we can reverse climate change? -or- If sound mitigation methods exist (as Red Barron posits); is it realistic to think we can get the entire planet to make the sacrifices that will drastically degrade their current quality of life for future promises?"

       I have two problems with this. First of all in my answer to you included evidence the mitigation strategy proposed by me was modeled after the natural biological carbon cycle that actually cooled the planet in the past.

       Global Cooling by Grassland Soils of the Geological Past and Near Future

       Gregory J. Retallack doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-050212-124001

       Is this proof? No. Agriculture is not exactly the same as natural biomes. And humans are new to the equation. There never was in the known geological past ever such a large and fast burning of so many fossil fuels all at once. So we can project based on the best evidence, but your request for "proof" instead of a "projection based on the best evidence" is a logic fallacy and unscientific rhetoric. However, this is very strong evidence that as long as we successfully model agriculture using biomimicry, we can harness this ecosystem fuction to our advantage and reverse AGW. (with appropriate reduction in emissions yielding a net negative CO2 flux)

       The other logic fallicy you made was a faulty premise. In fact it is you who should question your own beliefs, as you can not validate the assumption that AGW mitigation should drastically degrade current quality of life.

       In fact as part of my white paper for policy makers[1] I included examples proving this strategy drastically improves quality of life!

       Just from one example, SRI

       "SRI offers millions of disadvantaged households far better opportunities."

       "their confidence and optimism in the future is sky high."

       And that's just from my first example. I listed at least 10 examples from around the world in all sorts of conditions, rich and poor, developing countries and industrialised coutries and every situation inbetween raising all the major crop types worldwide. They all unambiguously benefit.

       You made a faulty premise not based on evidence, and it has clouded your judgement. I recommend a fresh start.

11781. scaddenp at 10:17 AM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       "CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere"  this sounds like you are trying to repeat the "CO2 is just a trace gas". Note that we can directly measure the increase in radiation due to CO2. Please dont retread just nonsense.

       "most generation is outside human control" - this is another rhetorical trick. Perhaps you have just fallen for it? While CO2 fluxes in and out of atmosphere are huge, the increase in concentration of CO2 is human made. If you a victem of this myth, the please see the detail on this myth here. 

       There is a taxonomy of myths under the arguments  menu item. Please look up the arguments and comment there. You are offtopic here and posting offtopic comments will result in comment deletion by the moderators. 

11782. nowhearthis at 10:09 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Eclectic

       You wrote: "The essence of your post, was that the recent rise of atmospheric CO2 from 280ppm to the modern-day 400ppm . . . had only a small component due to human burning of fossil fuels."  That wasn't the "essence" of my post, it was a tertiary point.  I said noting about the "rise" of CO2 - you did.  I wrote: "CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control". The EPA, AMS, NASA and others, all distribute content making that claim. Are they wrong? 

       You wrote:"inform the readers here at SkS about the natural mechanism you believe is predominantly causing that large atmospheric CO2 rise. (And preferably show it in a "confirmed" way . . . and without using terms like "may be".)   I don't claim to know what attributes to ALL the rise, I believe there is a component resulting from VITAL human activity, most of which you cannot stop cold, without a war, or subjecting humanity to an authoritarian police state.

       You wrote: "were you also trying to argue that CO2 has inherently negligible global warming effect anyway? "   No, IMHO, it's an integral part of the planet's temperature system and a principal reason the planet is inhabitable.

       The "essence" of my posts:  "What demonstrated proof exists to show any of the proposed CC mitigation strategies, actually significantly reverse CC?"   Has not been answered.  Is there no proof and all the strategies are conjecture?  The sacrifices CC deciples are demanding, will be a hard sell without validation.  

11783. scaddenp at 10:02 AM on 2 March 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       As pointed out to you, it is not a simple question because of your ideas of proof. Tell us what your standards of proof are before you would accept a Dr advice. 

11784. nigelj at 09:32 AM on 2 March 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       One Planet Only Forever

       "Another minor difference I hope you will change your mind about is what the name 'Green New Deal' means."

       I agree the original New Deal was a good thing. I have read a history of it. Without it I think America would have spiralled down into a 50 year depression. Keynes got some things right.

       And I see what you mean now. You are saying the GND is really a plan for absolutely everything, but with sustainable environmental goals as a key criteria and modern variation on the theme of a New Deal. I suppose you could be right.

       I still think this ambiguity is possibly a problem, and the inclusion of things like some form of universal basic income would cause conservatives to explode, and you do need some of their votes. However that provision has been softened down (I hope Scaddenp reads my previous comment).

       I personally have absolutely no opposition to the social ideas in the GND, but I'm a bit of a political strategist. Nothing will get done if one can't get votes so you always have to look closely at what swing voters might accept. Of course we have to be careful this does not lead to such wooly weak policies that makes the whole aim of being in politics pointless. Sometimes we have to take political risks and be a bit radical, but I would say make sure its on very sold grounds, and pick the battles.

       I think its too early for a universal basic income although the idea has merit.

       The unite the right issue is a worry. Fortunately we are not seeing too much of this in New Zealand. There is tribalism, but not on the scale of the USA. The problem is unite the right are loud and agressive, and all conservatives are very swayed by that sort of "authoritarianism" because they lean towards authoritarian values, so its a tough thing to counter.

       Vilifying and lecturing conservatives in general probably wont help, but I think its important to point out to them they are letting the fanatics gain control. It's ironic that Pence and Trump are trying to claim fanatical socialists have taken over The Democrats! But Pence and Trump exaggerate, and I think the public can mostly plainly see that.

       I tend to think gunuinely sane good policy, like some form of public healthcare for exampe, will win through in the end, and its best to keep to sane rational arguments and not start a shouting match or war. But theres nothing wrong with pointing out that some politicians policies are plain nasty like Trump's.

       And in countries like Germany conservatives and liberals are much closer on climate and even many social policies. America has gone a bit crazy.

       I think helpfulness is a pretty neutral and acceptable value to promote. Possibly better than constantly emphasising fairness or inclusion, which seems to drive conservatives insane, for reasons that mystify me.

11785. nigelj at 08:43 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       swampfoxh @15,

       The way you worded your very first post @5 left me thinking you were in denial about the contribution of fossil fuels, and were distracting attention by bringing up animals.  Perhaps you are an animal rights activist, or just feel the contribution of animals is underestimated.

       "Both of these studies ignore the GGE of slaughterhouses, on site refrigeration, refrigerated transport of market ready animal products and all of the people who's personal GGEs are emitted by being employed in animal ag. It probably gets worse."

       Well maybe, I will take your word for it. They are not exactly going to be huge contributions.

       Having said that, cutting meat consumption seems like one of the easiest things we could do to reduce the climate problem, and it has a whole range of other benefits for the environment, such as reducing water use, reducing nitrate and effluent runoff, human health, and efficient use of resources. Meat eating is a habit not a necessity.

       Yes population is still growing, but rates are slowing down. Good comment on the Permian.

11786. One Planet Only Forever at 08:41 AM on 2 March 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       nigelj,

       Thanks for the reply (and thanks to scaddenp, Mal Adapted, and all those I am forgetting to mention - sounds like an awards speech).

       We, including scaddenp, do seem to have a lot of understanding in common. Though admittedly my thinking is more radical (less common), as pointed to by Mal Adapted (and I do appreciate that radical is not necessarily a negative term).

       One minor difference in our thinking is that I believe many moderate conservatives may actually be easily 'put off' by claims like potential free-riding promoted by a Carbon Fee and Rebate system (potentially seen to be taking from the richer and just giving to the poor). In Alberta, Canada, and the USA, the conservative opposition to climate action is not opposition to net increased government revenue. The New Conservatives in Canada vehemently oppose Carbon Fee and Rebate policies, successfully appealing for support in places full of moderate conservatives like Alberta by calling the actions Tax programs that will do nothing to reduce emissions (they leave off the point about the rebate and their fans do not question it).

       Another minor difference I hope you will change your mind about is what the name 'Green New Deal' means. The New Deal was the radical socioeconomic action plan developed to correct the massively harmful and unsustainable socioeconomic conditions that had developed in the USA decades ago (pre WW2). It had many opponents, including people who would probably have been thought of as moderates, because it costs the supposed economic winners of higher status some of their status relative to others (it made rich people poorer and poorer people richer, but the richer were still richer than all others). But it was undeniably required at the time. A similar socioeconomic condition has redeveloped in the USA. So a New New Deal is being proposed. What is being done is the addition of the Green component because of the importance of the relatively new required corrections for climate action. It is also done because of the synergies of things like new employment in renewables and the ability to connect all the different 'helpful' interests into a common understanding. But the corrections of the GND will make some of the currently richer people signficantly poorer (especially the ones who made big bets on fossil fuels), and those threatened people are gathered in (actually pushed for the creation of) the likes of the New United Right GOP.

       One of the things I need to be more aware of is that my life experience in Alberta, Canada, is probably a far more powerful exposure to the recent (past 30 years) of Unite the Right groups like the GOP developing effective resistance to the clearly required corrections that all global leaders have long been aware were required. People in other regions of the world will not have that intimate experience with that development. I consider myself to be a fiscal conservative, social progressive, who is aware of the importance of helping others, particularly the future generations of humanity. The last consideration is the reason I often comment on how much trouble the current generation is in because of the lack of consideration of the future by previous generations. I see the admission of the need for correction to be an important step (like it is for any harmfully addicted person). Some moderate conservatives may be open to admitting they were incorrect and change their mind to support corrective action on climate change. But the developed socioeconomic-political systems and the resulting Tribes that many conservative-minded people are now in are seriously stacked against that happening. Being Socially Progressive is a significant aspect of my thinking that has kept me outside of the developing New Conservative Tribes.

       The collective diverse Tribe gathered under Unite the Right banners can be seen to include people who want to resist just about every correction that is presented in the Sustainable Development Goals (and the GND). And people tempted to continue to identify with the newly developed Unite the Right Conservative Tribes can only remain Loyal to the Bosses of the New Tribe by being a supporter of resistance to the required climate action corrections. Any person who does not want to be part of that resistance probably has to 'Leave the Tribe'.

       The identification of the harms being done by the Unite the Right leadership are potentially the most powerful wedges available to spring moderates free from the Tribe they still try to identify with (more powerful than any amount of better presentation of technical details regarding climate science or related economic evaluations, though that work is critical and must continue). Admittedly, that may not be a simple task, even for a moderate conservative. A lot of developed perception of status is potentially at stake. And unlike political Liberals (using the current political understanding of that term) who likely only have Fairness added to the core moral objective of Helpfulness (with Fairness unlikely to be at odds with Helpfulness), a political Conservative may have to undo incorrect beliefs about the merits/value of Loyalty, Respect for Heirarchy, Perceptions about what is Pure and Good, and beliefs about Liberty (like the flawed belief that Good results will develop if everyone is freer to believe and do whatever they please).

       There is potentially a lot of hard to do corrective change for a Conservative to work through. It could be perceived as significantly reducing their developed self-image. But helping them focus on helpfulness may help them understand that through the corrections they are actually developing a more sustainable and defendable self-image, participating in Tribes that are part of a larger and diverse collective of more sustainable helpful Tribes that they can proudly have Good Reasons to be Loyal to the Leadership of.

       Any attendees to Davos who change their minds to more aggressively help achieve the corrections that Greta has pointed out is 'their responsibility to be clear leaders of the development of' will be able to be justifiably prouder of themselves. The others will deserve ridicule to embarrass them into behaving better (because they need to behave better).

11787. RedBaron at 08:19 AM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       AEBanner @211 ,

       As others have pointed out, your approach has serveral fundamental flaws, but I think conceptually your biggest flaw is in forgetting the radiative factor back into space.

       You can't just accumulate all the energy accumulated between 1966 to 2016, because most of that energy radiates right back into space. Just like most the suns energy radiates right back into space.

       The only thing that matters is the net. This means what matters is the greenhouse gasses. And now we are right back at CO2

11788. Eclectic at 08:02 AM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       AEBanner @211 ,

       sorry, your calculation is not even close (nor do you get even a small cigar! ).

       Nor can you say that an accumulation of joules, ergs, watts, Terawatt-years (or BTU per minute) from human-caused oxidation, can be magically limited to only the thin gasseous part of our planet.

       Everything is connected over time.  The planetary air is pressed up against 300+ million square kilometres of cool ocean . . . and so the "careful sequestration" that you wish for, is simply impossible.

       AEBanner, your idea is far from new.   It's all been looked into & assessed ~ years ago.

11789. swampfoxh at 06:54 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       One more thing:  The Permian extinction of 249 million years ago is a pretty good example of how bad things can go when GGEs exceed "Goldilocks" conditions. Some argument exists over how long it took for the Permian catastrophe to develop before 97% of all life on earth was marched off to extinction. But, rough estimates claim the climate went from "reasonableness" to "hell" in about 120,000 years.  If CO2 (in the Permian) went from, say, 170ppm to 5,000 ppm, as the seas turned purple, as the sky turned a pale green and noxious gases emerged from the dead oceans...what could we possibly do to fix a problem like the Permian when, today, we are moving CO2 from 260ppm to "whatever" at a rate possibly 43 times faster than the Permian?  Is it even possible to define what it means to "slow" climate change? 

11790. swampfoxh at 06:27 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       TO: Nigelj

       Yes, a "difficult to prove" set of numbers. Both the UN FAO and the World Bank have a separate set of numbers because they are including a different set of categories.  EPA ignores animal ag's contribution to GGE in the areas of deforestation, desertification, eutrophication of the oceans, acidification of ocean water from animal ag chemicals, etc, etc, fresh water depletion and native species extinctions.  Both of these studies ignore the GGE of slaughterhouses, on site refrigeration, refrigerated transport of market ready animal products and all of the people who's personal GGEs are emitted by being employed in animal ag.  It probably gets worse.  On the other hand, fossils fuels are easy to count because governments know how much we dig up, how much we sell, and how much money, per gallon or MCF, all governments get from producers.  And yes, my population numbers are a little low...seems like I just looked them up a few months ago and they set at 7.3 billion, but by adding more than 177,000 people per day to the planet...don't take very long for things to add up.

       Regards,  and thanks for your continued participation in the dialog.

       swampfoxh

11791. nigelj at 06:07 AM on 2 March 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       One Planet Only Forever @ 51

       Yes you could argue the carbon fee rebate embodies a social concern, but only to placate the Republicans ideological concerns about too much big government , and only as a necessity. There's a big difference between this, and the structure of the GND and its socio economic components.

       Don't get me wrong. There is clearly a big overlap between social issues and environmental issues. The Democrats would be expected to have some Party Philosophy on this big picture and how they think things should be approached. Clearly capitalism also has some problems there is abuse of power by the rich and something simply has to be done. But this is overall party policy (and while we desperately need some idealism, hopefully they dont lurch to extremes and do daft things).

       My concern is entirely "political strategy". I go along with Mal Adapated's view on the issue, more or less. The Green New Deal is by its title an environmental document yet it contains a mixture of environmental and social policies, and as has been pointed out this complicates it, and probably alienates the conservatives, and you probably have to get at least some conservative votes to get any environmental laws passed. You certainly need to get centre votes and swing votes to govern and they typically dont like extreme policies. The GND looks like borderline acceptability to swing voters.

       Fortunately the group presenting the GND has toned down some of the socio-econmic goals, and its now somewhat better as here.

       But all these socio-economic concerns might have been better in a separate "economic new deal" that at least makes it harder for the GOP to attack everything by associating everything together too much. Its a strategic thing.

       However the socioeconomic goals in the GND do at least largely appeal to me, and The GND may gain traction simply because it takes such a bold, comprehensive stance.

       I agree people can learn to be more helpful. I think it's an instinctive value and not unique to liberals or conservatives. I know of no evidence that it is stronger in one side of polictics. I see the problem more the way conservatives resent forced helpfulness like social welfare programmes for example, but at least one can make a logical and economic case for these. The majority of Americans support these things, according to polls, and its the politicians that are more divided, so its more of an issue about the power structures of Americas government and how they have become so detached from the will of the majority. But there are still ideological differences between conservatives and liberals on government programmes, and I'm not sure how that is best fixed. It goes deep.

       My purpose on stating some people developing a conservative attitude as they age was merely to demonstrate we are not quite as unchangeable as Scaddenp thinks. Some also go the other way and develop liberal values, I have seen it. I probably chose a bad example to make the point.

       As stated people are born liberal or conservative and basic leanings go deep, but some level of change is also possible it seems but is perhaps a slow process. And moralising is not pointless. We make determinations that certain thing are wrong, like stealing peoples property, and eventually all sides of politics have accepted such things, but clearly developing legal codes based on morality is a slow process. Trying to argue the climate issue in a similarly moral way seems right to me, but equally looks like it would take forever to persaude people! Maybe thats the problem.

       Where Scaddenp also has a key point is getting conservatives to adopt very deep and fundammental liberal tenets, ideas, values can be "very hard work" at times and so another approach is to find common ground and justifications for ideas that might resonate with conservatives (eg renewable energy is "clean and pure" and profitable rather than promoting it simply as morally desirable, or that people who oppose it are bad people, even if they are)

       I don't think you and Scaddenp are quite as far apart as you probably think. A lot of this is about being precise about definitions.

11792. AEBanner at 04:08 AM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       Thank you MA Rodger and Eclectic for your comments, but I am afraid that you have both completely missed the point I am making.

       Firstly, though, my data came from the very data set you refer to, MA Rodger; namely the BP dataset, although the one I used went much further back.  I took the figures each year from 1966 to 2016 inclusive. 

       You both seem to think along the lines of Watts per sq.metre, which is not my approach in my work.  

       I simply deal with the amount of primary energy, in Joules, consumed in total over the 50 years period from 1966 to 2016 inclusive. I added up the annual figures provided by the BP Statistical Review, as mentioned in my “paper”, but separately for the two hemispheres. It is these total amounts that I am using, not these values worked in reverse to get Watts per square metre.

       The total amounts of energy as calculated in my work must go, initially, into the atmosphere because that is where it starts. From there the energy is distributed into the oceans, the continents and so on, but some remains in the atmosphere. This is illustrated very well in the IPCC report
       https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter5-1.pdf
       and scroll to 5.2.2.3 Note that this data only goes up to 2003. We find that the energy entering the oceans was 89.3% of the total anthropogenic energy, and the energy remaining in the atmosphere was 3.14%, this latter figure being subject an error of +or – 40%. This means that the proportion of the total anthropogenic energy remaining in the atmosphere was between 1.89% and 4.40% of the total. The I have subsequently used the value 3.14%.
       Please note that the number of joules entering the atmosphere was attributed to Kevin Trenberth.

       The resulting kinetic theory then provides the temperature increase in the atmosphere, as calculated.

       A careful reading of my wordpress post 

       https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

       makes all this very clear, and you will see that excellent results are obtained.

11793. One Planet Only Forever at 02:10 AM on 2 March 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       nigelj,

       Responding regarding:

       1. Directly linking environmental concerns with social concerns
       2. Increased conservative attitudes as people get older

       I will start by pointing out the potentially radical awareness and understanding that the 'addition' of Rebate to a Carbon Fee is linking a social concern with an environmental action. A Carbon Fee alone is an economic action that can change behaviours regarding the 'environmental concern'. There is no 'environmental need' to add a rebate component. A constantly increasing Carbon Fee is all that needs to be implemented (not some calculated carbon cost, just the Carbon Fee increasing as required to achieve the required result). Of course, just focusing on the environmental concern also leads to the obvious result of 'acceptable' actions being whatever the powerful winners of the competitions for status are happy with. And the logical conclusion of that competition is people with higher status not being happy with anything that would reduce their developed perceptions of status. The winners can be expected to only be happy with maintaining and increasing their perceptions of status regardless of 'consequences suffered by Others'.

       Conservative attitudes will definitely been seen to develop as the part of the brain that allows rational consideration of the potential consequences of an impulsive thought becomes a working part of the human brain. That capability develops in most minds by the age of 25. And that development 'would make a person more conservative than they were before it fully developed'. But the socioeconomic-political environment a person develops in can also significantly affect their development of helpful critical thinking (as opposed to the type of critical but incorrect rationalization that can so easily be done instead). And admittedly in cultures with competitions for impressions of status relative to others that allow more freedom regarding actions and perceptions of status, many people will resist putting that ability to helpful purpose, because they have been building personal perceptions of status on understandably harmful actions. And some people will resist giving up developed perceptions of status for themselves or the group they have joined (or created to help them resist losing understandably undeserved perceptions of status)that is well used by many people.

       Climate Action needs to be understood to be an 'added required correction' to the other identified changes of direction of development and corrections of what has developed that are presented in the Sustainable Development Goals (and all of the other similar presentations of what is needed for humanity to have a sustainable better future). The GND is a sub-set of the SDGs (the SDGs are more comprehensive than what is in the GND and the developed understanding is that achieving all of the SDGs is required - only achieving some of the SDGs actually achieves nothing sustainable). But the GND is a Good Step in the Right direction for correcting leadership thinking and for correcting the system that has been incorrectly developing popular thinking in the USA.

       Greta was correct to declare that the problem was 'the lack of responsible leadership by the attendees at Davos'. Some may be trying to behave responsibly. But obviously only having some winners have to admit (because of popular pressure) that they need to correct things in ways that will be helpful to the future of humanity and diminish their developed perceptions of status, particularly the ones unjustifiably fighting against a 'loss of undeserved status within their Tribe of Winners' is not Good Enough.

       Climate Science has unwittingly exposed the unacceptability of the socioeconomic-political systems that have developed, and exposed the reality that many people and groups with developed perceptions of higher status are not deserving of their perceived status (and will fight to Conserve their undeserved Winning, including taking control of or forming United Conservative Labelled Tribes that will support Their resistance to being corrected). That will not be corrected by 'clearer presentation of technical facts'. The resistance to correction is not playing a fact-based game. Exposing the type of game actually being played is required. It is a misinformation game filled with appeals related to incorrectly developed harmful perceptions of "Values", incorrect perceptions used to trigger resistance to the developments and corrections identified in the SDGs. Note that the SDGs are open to improvement (that is how they developed), and so is the GND. But those improvements will not negate any of the key awareness and understanding that has already been established (just like new climate science is highly unlikely to not change the majority of the currently developed awareness and understanding of climate science and the required corrections of developed human activity).

11794. One Planet Only Forever at 01:15 AM on 2 March 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scaddenp,

       All 'learning' involves improving (increasing and correcting) a person's awareness and understanding. And learning can be accomplished at any age.

       Being helpful can be learned, especially when awareness and understandings have been established (that are open for continuous improvement) that can be used as the basis for better identifying what is helpful (like the Sustainable Development Goals).

       Achieving the economic corrections required to keep the global warming below 1.5C or 2.0C in ways that do not make more people desperately poor is the required solution.

       Other actions that pragmatically side-step the social circumstances can trigger or fuel (has triggered and fuelled) violent actions, like the yellow-vest protests in France (and worse in Syria and the Sudan).

       And a carbon tax and rebate is less action than what is now required because of the pragmatic leadership actions through the past 30 years. And the conservative middle appears to have little will or ability to support even a weak implementation of Carbon Fee and Rebate in the USA (the middle appear to have become powerless pragmatics remaining loyal in the New GOP or retiring from politics).

       The social elements are probably in the GND for Good Reasons. Pragmatic leadership actions can be seen to have made WW2 the debacle it became (corrective actions were started too late). And the inattention by Republicans and Democrats to the plight of the poor propelled Trump to the Thin Win of the Presidency he achieved, not because he cared to help the poor, but because he took advantage of the tragedy that had been created by Pragmatic Leadership on both sides.

       Admittedly, resistance to correction is a powerful thing. There is indeed plenty of evidence that it is very easy to tempt people to believe that they do not have to correct their thoughts. However, pragmatically 'getting along' by letting people be harmfully incorrect is not very helpful, and is potentially very harmful (in spite of developed perceptions misleading people to want to believe otherwise).

       Things like the GND and SDGs justifiably question and challenge developed perceptions of how Good the developed political leadership Really is in the USA and around the planet. The likes of Trump are right about change being required, but their type of change (increased resistance to correction of awareness and understanding) is not helpful.

       As to the question of me becoming like a climate science denier in a Red State: The scary thing is the way that Sally Kohn's "The Opposite of Hate" exposes how even people who were Good Neighbours can be tempted to do horrible things to their neighbours. It is even easier to get supposedly Good People to do harm to people they do not know (Sally's book also exposes how people who have behaved horribly can learn to become helpful). I would hope that I could not be tempted to become like a harmful denier in a Red State or a member of a harmful political tribe (or a harmful radical Eco-warrior that would cause harm to loggers by putting spikes in trees). I hope to resist having that happen to me by striving to constantly improve my awareness and understanding of how to be helpful (having that objective over-power the Other Moral Urges that can lead to the systemic development of harmful Values that can be hard to correct but do need to be corrected).

11795. MA Rodger at 00:14 AM on 2 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       If you look up 2017 Primary Energy Use from the table on page 8 of the BP 2018 Review of World Energy (13,551 million TOE or 157,000 TWh or 17.9TW or 0.035Wm^2) it comes out below 20TW.

       As this SkS graphic (perhaps a little out-of-date now) shows (from this thread), Primary Energy Use is tiny on a global scale.

       

11796. John Hartz at 00:06 AM on 2 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Recommended supplemental reading:

       The Green New Deal and the Strength of Ambiguity by Alan Neuhauser, US News & World Report, Mar 1, 2019

       Teaser: The proposal is forcing Democrats to pick a side and propelling the environment into a top 2020 campaign issue.

11797. Eclectic at 23:51 PM on 1 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       Apologies ~ that should have been Terawatt-years annually

       . . . or just plain Terawatts, of course.

11798. Eclectic at 23:36 PM on 1 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       AEBanner @207 , 

       on my back-of-envelope calculations :-

       Earth surface area : 510 million sq. Km

       multiply by +2 watts/squ. meter (of solar-origin greenhouse) imbalance

       = 1020 Terawatt-years of warming.

        

       The ubiquitous Wikipedia shows humans' energy consumption about 20 Terawatt-years.  (You could probably add slightly to that, to allow for an inefficiency fudge factor . . . but then you probably ought to subtract hydro power and a tiny amount for solar power etc.)

       So ~ human "industrial" heat production would be roughly 50x smaller than the additional warming "from AGW".

       AGW effect was less than 1 watt/squ.m. say fifty years ago . . . but human industrial power was also much less, then, too.

       Overall, your energy idea seems dead in the water.  ( Barring an embarrassing error on my envelope! )

11799. AEBanner at 22:24 PM on 1 March 2019
       The Big Picture (2010 version)
       

       Anthropogenic energy could be causing global warming

       AEBanner

       The sum total of all the primary energy used since 1966 is enough to explain the measured warming of the Earth's atmosphere.  Energy data was taken from the BP website.  

       I have corrected the link to my post on wordpress, as below.

       https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

       I should be very pleased to receive constructive comments here.

11800. Eclectic at 21:45 PM on 1 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Nowhearthis @11 ,

       you made a lengthy post earlier today on another thread.

       The essence of your post, was that the recent rise of atmospheric CO2 from 280ppm to the modern-day 400ppm . . . had only a small component due to human burning of fossil fuels.

       It follows, that you are asserting that the 280 up to 400ppm rise has a mostly natural causation.

       Please, Nowhearthis, inform the readers here at SkS about the natural mechanism you believe is predominantly causing that large atmospheric CO2 rise.   (And preferably show it in a "confirmed" way . . . and without using terms like "may be".)

       If you cannot demonstrate such natural mechanism, then your whole argument that the observed global warming is uncorrectable . . . does simply fall flat on its face.

       Or were you also trying to argue that CO2 has inherently negligible global warming effect anyway?   (An argument which would leave you with zero logical credibility.)

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