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Comments 124001 to 124050:

124001. 70rn at 08:15 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        @ 41 Given that this post seems largely to have been made to question whether 'deniers' are actually emotive, I think the answer can be found with in the post itself. Possible action to ameliorate climate change was described as 'enormous economic and social upheaval' as well as 'drastic'. Rather curiously the possibility of action quantifying the effects of co2 apparently needs to be followed by, "Such a demonstration, should help also respond to the question whether euthanasia of a portion of the global population is to be recommended in order to ensure the survival of the rest and if so, what percentage needs to be exterminated." This phrase is seemingly disingenuously placed solely associate any action upon climate change with genocide. This is itself is an exceedingly emotional claim, as well as not an action suggested any known politician. If it was desired to be examined in a rational manner the phrasing along the lines of 'climate change action may cause unintended loss of life (presumably in the third world)' would have been acceptable, though one would need to elucidate further. However the methodology with which this is presented is a. baseless, as no governments or individuals have proposed mass euthanasia and b. unquantified and emotive. As it was provide by an 'experienced financial professional' one has to ask why no specifics were provided. This post was written seemingly as an attempt to be objective and unemotional and yet appears to have heavily utilized their opposites, I can only find this extraordinary. I do not mean this as a personal attack however it appears in this instance that the proof has been provided.
124002. Richard Brenne at 08:12 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        For ten seasons I coached kids from ages 6 to 8 in ski racing. Most skied many dozens of times a season often since they were two, and so they were excellent skiers. At the beginning of their first season of ski racing, because they often hadn't skied with other kids their age who were as experienced as they were, they assumed and many times their parents assumed that they were the best skier their age in our club, in Colorado, or in the world. All it took for them to be convinced otherwise was to be grouped with these other kids and go skiing, and then to finish well back in their first ski races. Because of this empirical evidence they went from sometimes insufferable arrogance to consistent humility quite quickly. Similar processes for adults include going to a rigorous university as an undergraduate, going to graduate school at a major research university, obtaining a PhD, especially in a science, publishing in a scientific or academic journal and thus undergoing peer review, and if in an appropriate field, volunteering and being nominated as an IPCC Report Lead Author or Group Leader. When one has experienced few or none of these things, it is easy for them to suffer the Dunning-Kruger affect in relation to climate change. If this isn't possible, then reading 100 published, peer-reviewed papers on climate science might be ideal, but reading at least 100 posts (and the comment threads) here, at RealClimate and Climate Progress would be a good place to start - and the impressively wise and humble do that before commenting too strongly.
124003. Richard Brenne at 07:51 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Dunning and Kruger's concluding sentences are funny: Although we feel we have done a competent job in making a strong case for this analysis, studying it empirically, and drawing out relevant implications, our thesis leaves us with one haunting worry that we cannot vanquish. That worry is that this article may contain faulty logic, methodological errors, or poor communication. Let us assure our readers that to the extent this article is imperfect, it is not a sin we have committed knowingly.
124004. BillWalker at 07:42 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Re #37, jimalakirti at 03:40 AM on 16 February, 2010 The problem with using the Bertrand Russell test on the climate debate is in distinguishing the real experts from the phony ones. You have to be willing to take the time to review qualifications and, in some cases, track funding sources. Re #41, rmbraun123 at 07:16 AM on 16 February, 2010 Your questions re CO2 measurements have already been answered in the prior comments. Human population growth is a problem, although due more to consumption of resources and need for energy, food and water than from simple exhalation, but nobody is suggesting extermination! Education, particularly of women, and access to voluntary birth control have been shown to reduce birth rates and would likely be sufficient to stabilize population at a sustainable level.
124005. Doug Bostrom at 07:39 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        rmbraun123 I think you're looking for a response directly from John Cole, but with regard to your observation about the preponderance of arguments it is necessarily a tautology. When one sums up the various lines of scientific inquiry relevant to climate change, there is an overwhelming trend in the direction of support for the basic hypothesis. Researchers attacking this problem from numerous directions are ineluctably lead to the same place because of realities they encounter. Discussions and articles here will necessarily reflect this fact, lacking as we do much of anything in the way of robust arguments against the basic hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change.
124006. 1077 at 07:16 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I am not a climate scientist but a rather well educated professional, with technical and financial analysis experience. You indicate that “the trend [I assume you mean rate or speed of change] in Mauna Loa CO2 (1.64 ppm per year) is statistically indistinguishable from the trend in global CO2 levels (1.66 ppm per year) rate”. I have no knowledge to make a judgment on this statement so I will have to accept it, at least for the moment. However, the graph implies not only an almost identical rate of change but also an identical absolute value of the starting point of approx 338ppm. Is that correct? And if it is correct, this means that measurements are available for the global level of CO2. If so, why use the measurements at Mauna-Loa and not the global measurements? You also state the question whether the place of sampling is appropriate “when situated near a volcano which are known to emit CO2” but you answer it in a rather incomplete way: Stating that “CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere” is rather vague, strictly qualitative and highly counter-intuitive. Counter-intuitive doesn’t of course necessarily mean “wrong”; but it requires further solid substantiation. Can you for example support it with quantitative data? Say by showing the measurement of a CO2 burst at Mauna-Loa (or some other volcano) at a specified point in time and then show the gradient of increase in a sufficient number of locations around the globe so as to support the statement. I started reading your site because human consumption of fossil fuel does evidently produce CO2, and so do animals and humans by the very act of living; not to mention CH4 and other gases. Is the quantity produced negligible compared to natural causes, as those whom you dub “deniers” contend? Or is the amount substantive enough to justify the enormous economic and social upheaval that is being proposed by certain politicians? I am yet to find a conclusive source that demonstrates in a credible quantitative manner one or the other of the contentions. Such a demonstration, should help also respond to the question whether euthanasia of a portion of the global population is to be recommended in order to ensure the survival of the rest and if so, what percentage needs to be exterminated. Simply reducing fuel consumption may or may not suffice as people do breathe. Hence a very serious and reliable quantitative study is necessary before drastic economic steps are taken. Is such a study at all possible with our current means? And if not, does the risk justify the proposed economic measures? Of course, the revelations of data manipulations, crass propaganda movies, apparent negligent sourcing by institutions that should know better, superficial sampling of tree rings etc. do not help. But disregarding all these does not answer my question either. Your website appears to me to be biased in that there is a clear preponderance of global warming arguments. Suppressing emotional comments is reasonable and understandable but one cannot help musing whether such emotion is really preponderant among “deniers”. Could well be, but again I would need quantitative proof to accept the hypothesis. Can you provide it?
124007. Doug Bostrom at 06:55 AM on 16 February 2010
        It's the sun
        Thanks for the amplification, Dan. I don't find the author's argument persuasive. The way it falls apart before the period where his numerical forcing no longer functions with available data versus the target objective offers a hint of the underlying problem. Here's a key remark by Gavin Schmidt relevant to the paper you cite: The potential for self-delusion is significantly enhanced by the fact that climate data generally does have a lot of signal in the decadal band (say between 9 and 15 years). This variability relates to the incidence of volcanic eruptions, ENSO cycles, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) etc. as well as potentially the solar cycle. So another neat trick to convince yourself that you found a solar-climate link is to use a very narrow band pass filter centered around 11 years, to match the rough periodicity of the sun spot cycle, and then show that your 11 year cycle in the data matches the sun spot cycle. Often these correlations mysteriously change phase with time, which is usually described as evidence of the non-linearity of the climate system, but in fact is the expected behaviour when there is no actual coherence. Even if the phase relationship is stable, the amount of variance explained in the original record is usually extremely small. Schmidt on solar forcing The arbitrary choice of a 32 year PDO cycle here is an example of what Schmidt describes. Another problem is that the amount of power from solar variation available is not enough to warm the ocean as much as we've seen happen, so looking to variation to explain the ocean's warming is a non-starter in any case. Meanwhile, an unqualified claim of cessation of warming since 2005 is not really defensible. To support a conclusion that warming has ceased since 2005 you'd first have to explain why five years of data have more statistical power than fifty.
124008. Mizimi at 06:01 AM on 16 February 2010
        Temp record is unreliable
        53# have a look at http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html which graphs temp against station numbers, you can also access the University of Delware mpeg file which animates the global station numbers form 1950 - 1999. Watch China & the Soviet Union. If you reaslly want to spend the time, go to GISS and check out the temp graphs for stations in the SU...you will find 'most' of them stopped sending data after 1990.
124009. Dan Pangburn at 05:07 AM on 16 February 2010
        It's the sun
        The reference site for sunspot count starts the data at 1700. If you do the conservation of energy assessment, the resulting graph fluctuates about a trend until about 1940 and then the trend rises continuously thereafter. The graph reveals that the trend of radiation energy balance changed in about 1940. The constant (it is actually 6.52E-9, the value 6.36E-9 was a misread) ‘normalizes’ the calculation for the 240 years prior to 1940. Oceans cover about 71% of the earth’s surface. A simple calculation reveals that the heat storage capacity (thermal capacitance) of the oceans to a depth of 700 meters is about 200 times that of everything else on the planet. Thus the average temperature of the oceans is by far the best indicator of whether the planet is actually changing temperature. The data at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/temperature shows that the planet stopped warming in about 2005. The next two ‘why’s relate to a discovery of the research. There are many ocean currents. Temperatures vary along the path of each current. The agencies that report average global temperature (agt) only use the temperature of the part of each current path that happens to be at the surface. Thus the contribution to the agt reports varies even though there is no intrinsic net gain of loss of energy over the entire circuit of each current. There are many different currents of which PDO is only one. The discovery is the net effect of all of the currents and is better identified as Effective Sea Surface Temperature (ESST). So replace all references to PDO with ESST. The discovery in time and magnitude is the ESST which produces the observed match of measured values. The last ‘why’ relates to simply a detailed instruction of how to do the arithmetic.
124010. Dennis at 05:01 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I describe Dunning-Kruger as the "know enough to be dangerous syndrome" or "ready, fire, aim!" approach to scientific analysis. The references to E-G. Beck are a perfect example. I've seen his name come up from time to time, but almost universally not by trained, established, scientists. Where scientists do raise his name (the realclimate post is one of the longer ones), they dismiss his work very easily and then move on to the next topic. Case closed. Doing a little research I found enough about him to realize that he's a self-published semi-amateur climate scientist (his degree is an MA biology and he retired from teaching high school). That alone is not enough to dismiss his research, but it's also not enough to cite his work as another in a long line of "see! see! the science isn't settled!" type of debate. If Beck wants to be a good scientist, he needs to stop self-publishing his papers and spend some time answer his critics so he can get his work published by those he considers his peers. From what I can tell (perhaps a little too much that it makes me dangerous here) he thinks he's right, everyone else is wrong, and prefers to work against the scientific community rather than with it. What the scientific community needs to do is spend a little more time on the "case closed" aspect of dismissing Beck's work. That will make it easier for interested non-scientists like me to identify the Dunning-Kruger effect coming from people like Beck.
124011. Ned at 04:44 AM on 16 February 2010
        Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
        The net effect of GH ghasses is therefore to reduce the maximum temperaturs that would be otherwise acchieved, Consider the moon,. Its daytime temperature is 105`C. It gets this hot because it hasnt got an atmosphere. Er, sorry, but no. The moon's daytime temperature may average +105C, but its nighttime temperature is around -150C. Thus, the mean temperature of the moon is around -20C. Now, the earth's albedo is higher than that of the moon, so if the atmosphere had no effect (or a cooling effect, as you claim) then the earth should be cooler than the moon. Fortunately for us, water vapor and CO2 in the atmosphere raise the earth's mean temperature via a phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect.
124012. Gianfranco at 04:39 AM on 16 February 2010
        Understanding Trenberth's travesty
        With reference to my question 32 above, how about "dismal"?
124013. eio at 04:21 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I think the biggest misconception is folks confusing "Weather" with "Climate." I like to offer this simple analog: "Weather is to Climate is like Moment is to Time." In geometric parlance, points vs. lines... Or "events" vs. "trends." A co-worker of mine, when hearing an news account of the recent cold weather back East, announced "So much for Global Warming." Several minutes later he was discussing our unseasonably WARM weather here in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. "I don't remember it ever being so warm in February..." He exclaimed. To which I replied: "SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL COOLING!!" We both laughed!
124014. Chris G at 04:12 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Karl_from_Wylie at 16:18 PM on 15 February, 2010 Aye, convincing those with a limited understanding is the whole game, isn't it? Many have lamented this; Gavin Schmidt comes to mind. Let's divide the population into two groups: those that have a working understanding of Stephan-Boltzmann, absorption spectra, and statistics (A), and those that don't (B). So far, any model or argument that group B can understand, is also so simplistic that it can be shot down by anyone in group (A), or even just countered with something that isn't really a counter of any substance. That situation leaves the person in group B at the whim of whoever sounds better or their own predispositions. So far, that needle has proven to be a tough one to thread. Unfortunately, I see it as a bit like trying to explain thermodynamics to a child in order to keep them from burning themselves on a hot stove. Even the simplest explanation is not enough to keep them from being skeptical until they touch it.
124015. ConcernedCitizen at 03:53 AM on 16 February 2010
        Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
        @Ricardo At 15 microns the sun produces 180 times as much energy as the earth. It is irrelevant how much energy the sun produces in the visible, it is the energy emmitted by the earth and absorbed by CO2 which is key. Your Siki link states: "Thus heat is easily let in, but is partially trapped by these gasses as it tries to leave. " This isnt true. Visible energy is let in, not heat. The heat of the sun is bloocked by the same GH gasses as block the heat going out. The difference is that thr sun produces far more heat than the earth. The net effect of GH ghasses is therefore to reduce the maximum temperaturs that would be otherwise acchieved, Consider the moon,. Its daytime temperature is 105`C. It gets this hot because it hasnt got an atmosphere.
124016. jimalakirti at 03:40 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I use the Bertrand Russell test of my competence in technical subjects where I lack expertise: "When the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain; when [they] are not agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a non-expert; when they all hold that no sufficient grounds for a positive opinion exist, the ordinary man would do well to suspend his judgement." Bertrand Russell. Just a quick guide for me when I wade into unfamiliar waters. It is also a nicely parsimonious method of deciding which articles one takes the trouble to read.
124017. Suspicious mind at 03:20 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Excuse me for my humanistic over-simplifications here, but it seems to me that the D-K effect manifests in people who believe they are correct while everyone else is grossly misinformed. For D-Kers, there is no intellectual give and take, only efforts to reinforce one's own position while snubbing what might be an intrusion of reality. I think we could all benefit by moving the debate to three areas: Does mankind has the ability to impact climate change going forward? To what extent should governments control its industry and citizenry in terms of greenhouse gas emissions? If climate change is a planetary response to overpopulation and increased industrialization, should we be preparing ourselves to deal with the consequences, which may very well include the planet ridding itself of a large portion of humanity?
124018. Ned at 03:13 AM on 16 February 2010
        Skeptical Science housekeeping: iPhone app, comments and translations
        Actually, that "Recent Comments" thing on the Profile page is odd. Those clearly aren't our own recent comments, and they're not the most recent comments posted by anyone (you can see that list by clicking "RSS Comments" under the "Search" window at the top left). I guess they're a sample of someone's recent comments from an unknown part of the site, where "recent" means an arbitrarily long period of time. :-)
124019. Raybender at 02:54 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        @JonMoseley: You wrote: "The only way one could scientifically come to the conclusion that "CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere" (in the context of what you are arguing) is to MEASURE CO2 throughout the world, introduce a significant increase in CO2 into one location, and then MEASURE the rate at which the marked increase in CO2 diffuses throughout the world." You mean like this: http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11194 ? AIRS measures CO2 levels in the atmosphere with global coverage (from orbit). As you could see if you followed the link (you won't), levels at the time of measurement vary from 376 to 386 ppmv. Go ahead and compare that variation to the scale of the graph above. So, not only is your comment woefully (willfully?) igorant of basic atmospheric physics (like turbulent mixing of non-condensing gases), it isn't even an objection that survives confrontation with data.
124020. Ned at 02:36 AM on 16 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        CO2 for the past 80 or 90 years has been increasing in the atmosphere at the rate of 2ppm. To double from its current 385 will therefore take almost 200 years The rise in CO2 concentration IS accelerating -- in the 1960s it was increasing at less than 1 ppmv/year; now it's increasing by over 2 ppmv/year. The discussion of "doubling" generally refers to doubling from its preindustrial concentration (i.e., going from 280 ppmv to 560 ppmv), which, if you project the past 50 years' accelerating trend, will happen sometime around 2070. That seems like a long time from now but it's well within the expected lifespan of my own daughter. Doubling from the current concentration would happen a few years after 2100. The oceans are not the source for the rise in atmospheric CO2 -- in fact they're taking up CO2 from the atmosphere. The 2+ ppmv per year increase in atmospheric concentration is only a small portion of what we're emitting. The rest goes into the oceans (where it has the side effect of decreasing the pH). See the work of Takahashi et al. over the past couple of decades, which has amply demonstrated this.
124021. carrot eater at 01:53 AM on 16 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Bob Armstrong, 105, you've made at least one basic error. Real materials are not grey bodies; their actual emissivities are functions of wavelength. Therefore, the earth's albedo in the visible wavelengths does not set any requirements on the earth's emissivity in the IR wavelength range. This becomes even more important with greenhouse gases, which are very much different from grey bodies. In general, if you think you've applied some introductory level physics and discovered a major flaw in a scientific field, you should probably re-examine.
124022. CBDunkerson at 01:39 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        The Beck paper cited a few times is itself a classic example of this D-K effect. Beck is a high school biology teacher with no background in climate science. In reading about the work of Guy Stewart Callendar (who had been dead 40 years when Beck published) he objected to the fact that Callendar had discarded CO2 readings which he took to be anomalous due to proximity to industry. Beck felt that this was 'cherry picking' of the data and for his report went back to the same sources Callendar had used, but kept in the anomalous readings. The problem of course was that Callendar's results had long since been confirmed by proxy readings and the smooth curve (rather than Beck-like roller coaster swings) of the continuous CO2 records. The results of Beck's paper were provably false before he ever published it... he just wasn't aware of scientific progress in the half century following Callendar's effort. Beck had a partially valid objection... Callendar's selection of data COULD have been incorrect. It was an 'educated guess' on Callendar's part that global CO2 levels did not make wild swings over the course of just a few year. Had Callendar been wrong about that then his conclusion that wild fluctuations were due to local industrial emissions might also have been flawed and his results all wrong. But rather than checking further into subsequent science, which had proved Callendar's 'guess' correct, Beck just assumed that Callendar had it all wrong and proceeded to produce a study that was decades out of date. It would have been a solid rebuttal to Callendar in the 1950s, but in the 2000s it was just a bad joke.
124023. Nick Palmer at 01:01 AM on 16 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        John - I've been arguing with a rabid sceptic/denier on a sceptic website and he came up with the "argument" below CO2 for the past 80 or 90 years has been increasing in the atmosphere at the rate of 2ppm. To double from its current 385 will therefore take almost 200 years His point was based on that if climate sensitivity estimates are that temperature goes up about 3 degrees C per doubling then we have far longer to wait or act (or not be bothered to act)than the IPCC view. This looked like a new denier argument to me that I hadn't seen before. I pointed out that IPCC graphs of projected CO2 levels must take into account increased outgassing of sequestered carbon from the oceans and permafrost as things warm up (which must, if his math about PPM/year stacks up, be much much greater than our emissions). He responded that if the oceans etc were warming due to a natural cycle, or indeed us, then we haven't seen anything like an acceleration in the CO2 ppm/year rate yet. On the face of it, his argument does seem to show that CO2 levels are not rising at a dangerous rate yet. I have my own ides about how to answer this conundrum but what am I missing?
124024. Ned at 00:36 AM on 16 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Whoops, sorry for misspelling Socolow.
124025. Ned at 00:35 AM on 16 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Marcus, I agree. I am often struck by the way in which a single comment will combine an absurdly high degree of "skepticism" towards mainstream climate science with a completely speculative assumption about the costs of action to mitigate climate change. There is a lot of peer-reviewed work that's been done on assessing the economic costs and viability of actions to reduce the magnitude and impact of climate change. We could start out with Pacala and Sokolow 2004 and go on from there. But in my experience, very few of the skeptics/contrarians/denialists (whatever term you prefer) are aware of, or interested in discussing, that part of the literature. They tend to just take it for granted that reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions will obviously cost immense sums of money so why bother to even discuss it?
124026. Spencer Weart at 00:22 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Dave Keeling, the originator of the CO2 curve, often known as the Keeling Curve, confronted all these issues. His first clear data came not from Mauna Loa but from Antarctica... you'd think that was pristine, but it turned out to have fluctuation problems thanks to CO2 emitted by generators in the outpost. Keelng's solution was (a) measure CO2 continuously, and look for the flat low points on the curve indicating the "baseline" level when wind wasn't blowing from the generators... or, at Mauna Loa, the volcano vents; and (b) measure at a number of places around the world, again looking for the lowest and steady "baseline" level. For the whole story see my essay at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Kfunds.htm
124027. Ned at 00:18 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        jpark writes: Is this blog turning into sneer review rather than peer review? Actually, this blog pretty much is the best there is when it comes to discussing the peer reviewed literature on climate change. Go to the archives here and click on any of the more science-y topics and you'll see that John spends a LOT of time reading and discussing the literature. Given the amount of time and effort John donates to this more-or-less thankless task, I think you should probably be able to cope with the occasional post, like this one, which tackles the "meta" question of why exactly some people fall for some of the more absurd claims. For example, comment #4 in this thread (by Westwell) refers to the work of E.G. Beck. Now, everybody with even a passing understanding of the science involved knows that Beck's "CO2 record" is nonsense. Many people elsewhere have written at great length explaining why Beck's claims are nonsense. As I understand it, Steve McIntyre has banned discussion of Beck's work from his climate audit site because he understands that that stuff is nonsense and that hosting discussion of it would just make his blog (and the skeptic cause) look foolish. So ... John Cook could write a carefully documented explanation of why the Keeling CO2 record is right and the Beck CO2 record is wrong. And maybe he will do that someday! But when you get to "skeptic" arguments that are as willfully blind as that, I think the more interesting point is not why they're wrong but why someone would believe them. As I understand it, that's what this thread is about.
124028. Tony O at 00:16 AM on 16 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Dunning Kruger effect is not the only trap. My global warming education has been entirely by the internet. So I may have heard or even read the latest papers and yet still be stunningly ignorant of the basics. Read a few papers on a subject and a degree of understanding ensues. Paywalls are a problem, I am not paying to read a paper that I will not understand entirely and may not understand at all. Word usage is a problem. Google methane hydrate and read a bit can give a different understanding than Googling methane clathrate and reading a bit. Knowing who to trust is a huge problem, and if you place your trust in a unreliable source the path to truth can be delayed a long time. Even for the trained seeing what you are looking for can be problem. For the untrained it is an immense problem.
124029. Marcus at 23:37 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        jpark, thingadonta did the usual contrarian trick of trying to equate climate science with religious belief, & tried to link climate science to some big bureaucratic conspiracy-both of which he- should know are deletable offenses on this site-as should you. His point was *not* valid because-unlike the Aztecs-our knowledge of the modern climate is based on direct, scientific observation of cause, effect & correlation (amongst other things)-not on the basis of an edict from some priestly caste-no mater how much the contrarians might say otherwise!
124030. Marcus at 23:31 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Also, before we try & pin the blame for rising CO2 emissions on growing human populations (though I think we should be curbing population growth for our own sake) consider this: (1) if it were the result of breathing, we'd expect to see no change in the ratio of C12, C13, & C14 isotopes of CO2, yet in truth we are seeing a change in that ratio-indicating a "non-natural" source of CO2. (2) human population has been rising for over 10,000 years, yet CO2 levels have remained relatively static throughout all but the last 200 years of that period-so not much correlation there! Just FYI.
124031. jpark at 23:28 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Is this blog turning into sneer review rather than peer review? I thnk thingadonta's point was not about when climate science per se originated but about human perception - I thought his point quite valid. And I do know my level of incompetence!
124032. Marcus at 23:26 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        TOP, the biggest issue is this: the fossil fuels we're burning today are in fact fossilized trees from a time when CO2 levels were 10 times higher than today-& temperatures were about 6 degrees warmer (in spite of a sun which was 10% cooler). These massive trees sequestered those Carboniferous Era CO2 molecules & were subsequently buried under many hundreds of meters of sediment/rock. Then we pull them up & burn them-liberating that Carboniferous Era CO2 *back* into our Quaternary Era atmosphere (an atmosphere receiving 10% more sun than when those CO2 molecules were first airborne). So, based on that knowledge, what do *you* think are the odds that the burning of these fossil fuels might be able to impact on our global climate?
124033. Ned at 23:15 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        TOP writes: The biggest problem with the presentation of this graph is the time scale. Using another well known graph that covers 500 million years of history instead of 12,000 years we get a totally different perspective. There is value in understanding the evolution of the earth's climate over long scales. But for a discussion of the impact of modern climate change on our agricultural/industrial civilization, the appropriate question is "How will the climate of 2050 (or 2100 or whatever) compare to the climate that we have experienced over the past 12,000 years?" There have been long periods in the distant past when the planet was much warmer, the sun was cooler, CO2 was higher, the continents and ocean basins were in different positions, and weathering of carbonate rocks occurred at different rates. The study of those times is useful for many reasons, but it would be absurd to suggest that farmers in the midwestern USA shouldn't worry about 21st century climate change because CO2 levels were really high back in the Ordovician Period and life survived. Surely that's not what TOP meant to suggest, right? That would be a ridiculous argument indeed.
124034. Riccardo at 22:47 PM on 15 February 2010
        There's no empirical evidence
        40 Shades of Green, Phil Jones is a serious scientist in fact. If you read the whole answer, he says that there's a trend but it is "just" not statistically significant, and explains why. For sure he's not the kind of man that picks up an arbitrary time span and cry no trend! no trend! Statistics poses limits to the minimum time length of the record that allow us to make statements on the trend. It's not that hard to do it yourself, if you wish, or read from one who did
124035. ScaredAmoeba at 22:18 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        If Beck's theory about the wet CO2 measurements had indeed been correct, then these enormous atmospheric CO2 excursions would be expected to show up clearly in the Law Dome ice-core. They don't. So we have a number of serious problems: a) No confirmatory evidence from independent sources. b) Logic indicates that in all likelihood that such natural mechanisms of around century ago would still be operating now, but clearly aren't. c) CO2 variations that disappear when accurate modern measurements begin. d) An unexplained change in the carbon cycle. e) Georg Hoffmann on Realclimate suggested that such enormous CO2 fluxes [10x annual global emissions] would leave a distinct carbon isotope in tree rings too, which has also not been found. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/beck-to-the-future/ Occam's razor indicates that the claims are likely wrong. [I am being overly generous] So we not only know that not only these measurements were suspect, but we know for certain that those measurements and any conclusions drawn from them were wrong. A question for followers of Ernst-Georg Beck and his ilk. What is his publication record in science citation index Journals? Note: this expressly excludes Energy & Environment which is a 'trade journal' and has a long record of publishing articles of highly questionable if not dubious merit.
124036. 40 Shades of Green at 21:02 PM on 15 February 2010
        There's no empirical evidence
        As it happens, I don't think Plimer is a serious skeptic. His inability to acknowledge the Volcano error is an embarrassment. Interestingly, since I posted this, no less a personage than Phil Jones has confirmed that there is no statistically significant warming for 15 years - remember that is half a climate timeframe. His BBC piece also acknowledges the presence of volcanos in the earlier part of the Satellite record but does not draw the obvious conclusion that I did. IE, volcanos in the firest half depresses temperatures, no volcanos in the second half increass them, run a trend line over the full period and you get warming. But then again that might be me doing a Dunning Krueger :-) Thanks for the Schuckmann link. Will go off an read it. 40.
124037. Marcus at 21:00 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Something that I find very interesting is this. My work as a Microbiologist/Molecular Biologist in the field of Agronomy brings me into contact with a lot of farmers. Now most of these guys are fairly old & extremely self-reliant, yet none of the ones I've met suffer from the "all scientists are idiots" syndrome. Most of them *care* about their land, but recognize that they-& their forebears-have made a *lot* of mistakes due to lack of knowledge. Therefore, I've found them very, very willing to listen to the advice the scientists have to offer. So if a fairly conservative, self-reliant bunch such as farmers are prepared to listen to scientists, then why are these so-called "skeptics" so unwilling to listen? Oh, & another thing, these farmers-almost to a man-all are of the view that anthropogenic global warming is *real*, because they're seeing it directly impacting on their land.
124038. 40 Shades of Green at 20:46 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        As a skeptic, whenever I come across a new arguement either for or against, the first place I come to ameliorate my personal Dunning Krueger effect is here.
124039. Riccardo at 19:50 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        An antidote could be reading Spencer Weart book or any other history of climate science, a good first step to be taken. Looking at the history of science anyone can find that many of the questions that keep crawling around had already been answered many decades ago (e.g. the reliability of the Mauna Loa record or the high variability of the old measurements by wet chemical methods reported by Beck we are reading in the comments here).
124040. Dikran Marsupial at 19:48 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        JohnMoseley said: "The only way one could scientifically come to the conclusion that "CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere" (in the context of what you are arguing) is to MEASURE CO2 throughout the world, introduce a significant increase in CO2 into one location, and then MEASURE the rate at which the marked increase in CO2 diffuses throughout the world." An experiment of that nature has been performed (sort of). Fossil fuel use is concentrated in the northern hemisphere, and there is a small difference in CO2 concentrations (about 2-3 ppm IIRC) between the north and south hemispheres as a result, which is what you would expect if atmospheric concentrations were "well mixed" (if it weren't there would be a big difference between north and south as fossil fuel emissions accumulated around areas of greatest use). The difference between north and south hemisphere concentrations is also proportional to emissions, which strongly suggests CO2 from fossil fuel emissions in the north is transported fairly quickly to the southern hemisphere. See U. Siegenthaler & J. L. Sarmiento, Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the ocean, Nature 365, 119 - 125 (09 September 1993); doi:10.1038/365119a0 also CO2 is measured around the earth and I suspect that a spaghetti plot of the data from all measuring stations would confirm that concentrations are well mixed.
124041. FerdiEgb at 19:42 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        As a skeptic myself to both sides, I have commented on several blogs. In the case of the origin of the increase of CO2 levels, I have had a lot of discussions with other skeptics. The main result is a page completely devoted to that point, where all arguments are ordered and the only conclusion possible is that humans are responsible: http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/co2_measurements.html CO2 levels are measured at 10 "baseline" stations and some 70+ other places, which show that besides a seasonal (vegetation induced) amplitude and a N-S lag, the yearly averages at all places far away from local sources are within a few ppmv with similar trends. Thus we may say that CO2 is "well mixed" in about 95% of the atmosphere. Besides that, in 5% of the atmosphere, that is below the inversion layer over land, CO2 levels are not well mixed, depending of local sources and sinks and wind speed. Even there, some 400+ stations measure CO2 fluxes trying to understand the local/CO2 balance of vegetation and human sources. Unfortunately, it is in the 5% non-well mixed part of the atmosphere that many measurements in the pre-Mauna Loa era were made. Especially the "peak" around 1942 found in Beck's compilation of CO2 data, was mainly from a few series made in a polluted area. The same peak is not found in high resolution ice cores (Law Dome) neither in stomata data or (as 13C/12C ratio) in coralline sponges of the oceans. This shows that there was no such CO2 peak and that Beck's 1942 peak is biased by local/regional contamination. See further: http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/beck_data.html But that humans are responsible for the increase in CO2 of the past 1.5 century, doesn't say anything about the influence of the increase. The real influence of more CO2 depends mainly of the feedbacks (both positive and negative) on the about 1 degr.C for 2xCO2, which is the basic response of CO2, based on its absorption spectrum.
        Response: Many thanks for posting those links. To those following the discussion on CO2 measurements, I strongly recommend you visit his webpage CO2 Measurements which is a comprehensive and illuminating discussion of CO2 measurements - a definite antidote to Dunning-Kruger effect! :-)
124042. CoalGeologist at 19:38 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        The inability to recognize the limits of one’s own knowledge is certainly a serious handicap confronting many non-experts when approaching the topic of climate change. Two additional, interrelated handicaps are bias and the phenomenon of "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Combine these with the tsunami of misinformation, fallacious reasoning, and dubious science comprising the bulk of AGW "skepticism" and it’s no surprise that many skeptics--even those having the best of intentions--are unable to gain a valid understanding of the evidence for (or against) anthropogenic global change. The corrupting influence of "a little bit of knowledge" is not evident in the data from Kruger and Dunning, but I believe it becomes particularly hazardous when linked to what K&D term "motivational biases". I suspect this is a prominent reason why the professions of broadcast meteorology and geology include an unusually high proportion of AGW skeptics, as both professions entail at least some understanding of climate change, while falling well short of expertise in climate science. Accordingly, many geologists cite the paleoclimate fallacy mentioned by John (above). Bias by itself is enough of a hazard, but coupled with the inability to recognize competence in one’s self or in others, plus the self-delusion that one has expertise that is actually lacking, leads to the situation we currently face, with a growing, even if irrational, backlash against AGW. Several of the preceding posts also address the cultural phenomenon of bashing the know-it-all, egghead intellectuals, on the premise that seat-of-the-pants wisdom trumps ivory tower book-learnin’. This can provide an added boost to the self-confidence of those lacking the ability or the will to read actual science papers, and is a card played by some politicians who have weighed in as AGW skeptics.
124043. thingadonta at 19:30 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Yes, Yes, a similar one to "people wil rise to their level of imcompetence" in work situations, but skeptics have been saying for years that (some) climate scientists also fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger effect: eg: those climate scientists that think they can understand all/most of the complexity of the climate, and therefoe make overly-confident predictions and geustimates (eg most of the error bars in the IPCC reports). A good test of these is to look at past IPCC reports, the IPCC often get their predictions wrong (references needed), but the over-confidence in their predictions seems to just continue. Another major bone of contention, is yes, most skeptics are aware that climate science/scientists in its current understanding is aware of various skeptical arguments, and can point to various peer reviewed papers to support their positions etc etc, but the skeptics also believe and/or are very suspicious that the process of peer review within climate science in general has become corrupted (anbd also including within the IPCC process), and the peer review system now exists simply to maintain and support the status quo and those with vested interests. So, referring back to the 'peer reviewed literature' is not going to convince them unless, and until, the peer review system is reformed. (I also don't need to point out the various current events surrounding this issue).
124044. Dick Veldkamp at 19:16 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        #2 Jon Moseley: CO2 well mixed? Although the argument "CO2 is so well mixed that CO2-concentration is the same in the whole atmosphere and we can rely on measurements in one location" is probably true, poster #2 is right that you do not provide the evidence for it. Presumably, if I studied diffusion and wind global wind patterns more (thus avoiding the D-K effect), I could prove well-mixedness from the physics, but that would still be theory. If you showed some measurements from other locations which gave identical results to Hawaii, or if ice cores from both Greenland and Antartica showed identical CO2 levels, that would really clinch the case. I am 100% convinced (D-K again?) that people have done these measurements (and that results were as expected). Can you show such data?
124045. RSVP at 18:34 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Marcus If you will allow me to add a small touch to my last comment. So the path for heat outward is radiation into space. And greenhouse mechanisms obstruct this path as they should. Extra CO2 does indeed increase this obstruction. However... The real problem is not this path. The real problem is the additional heat needing to use this same path. Like a highway with traffic. All it takes is one accident to create a giant slowdown. The traffic is due to the fact that the highway is already saturated. Now you have more cars plus an accident. The point here is that you cant avoid generating the extra heat, which accompanies all technologies.
124046. RSVP at 18:15 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Marcus We are all inhabitants of a beautiful planet that everyone wants to conserve. In that sense, we are all in the same camp. I am not sure which post of mine got you going on this thing about a "last line of defense". At some point, I was asking about comparative technologies and impact studies. SNratio accused me of being political for asking these questions, which only science and engineering can answer. Believe it or not, I am the first to "wish" CO2 levels were back to "normal". If there was a magic wand to wave, I would be the first to wave it. However there is no magic wand, in the sense that reducing CO2 emissions does have an unavoidable economic burden simply due to the inertia of current capital investment. Things are precarious as it stands. It is not a political statement. It is a fact. (Example. I have an automobile I can barely afford to drive, and it is not an expensive automobile by the way). What could be a "last line of defense" for the cold winter we are having than to say it would actually be colder if it wasnt for anthropogenic warming? This comes out over and over again (and even if this were true, I for one am not complaining. It's suppose to snow today, again). If it helps you understand where I am coming from, all I can say is that I try to separate what I wish for from my beliefs or assessment of the technical issues. To be concrete, I find it very difficult to swallow this pill that claims that a .01% or .02% volumetric increase of a gas in our atmosphere is driving planet temperatures dangerously upwards. Like tying a mouse to a refrigerator and expecting to see it move. It just isnt intuitive, now matter how many "peers" signoff. One of the first things I ever posted, was that you can't destroy matter or energy. As far as your second comment, 104, urban centers do tend to be comparably warmer than surrounding rural areas. Winds typically clear out this extra heat and make city life livable, however that heat doesnt just go poof, because as I just said, you cant destroy energy. It either needs to find its way to the black of space, or be absorbed here and elevate the Earth's temperature. At some point this energy turns ice into water, and then people take notice. In this case, the location of cause and effect can be thousands of miles apart.
124047. Bob Armstrong at 17:54 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        @ 81 & elsewhere : I see here the nearly universal misconception , and if really thought about - shear nonsense , that albedo of a radiantly heated uniform gray ball affects its equilibrium temperature . That this leads to absurdities such as being able to construct a cryogenic cooler just by coating the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle with MgO was Kirchhoff's great insight 151 years ago . This ubiquitous error , which comes from calculating the temperature of a ( gedanken ) body which reflects with a measured albedo , but emits as a black body , is the source of the misleadingly cold numbers , such as 255k for earth upon which the notion that GHGs account for about a 33c increase in our temperature . Far more relevant , and orthogonal , is that , as calculated on my http://cosy.com/Science/TemperatureOfGrayBalls.htm , we are about 9c warmer than a gray body in our orbit . Our temperature is linear with that of the sun , and inversely proportional to the square root of our distance from it . See http://cosy.com/ for the graph which shows that Venus is the only inner planet which consequentially deviates from those functions beyond observational precision . Even a disk , black facing the sun , white facing 3k space in Venus's orbit would only be about 390k . Since since the SB law for radiant heat transfer is T ^ 4 from hot to cold , and Fourier for conduction is down the gradient of Temperature , and convection is also , by Carnot at a minimum , hot to cold , how can the surface temperature of Venus exceed the energy it is receiving from the sun unless it has some substantial internal heat source . There is no question that blankets can keep heat IN , and the heat conductivity of CO2 at . what , 90 atmospheres , would be very interesting to know . It happens my bathtub reading this year is a dog chewed copy of my niece's electrodynamics textbook at Boulder . Compared to it , the understanding of the physics displayed by both sides of this debate is pathetic .
124048. David Horton at 17:47 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I'm not sure if we are seeing pure D-K in action here. It's more the "all scientists are idiots" syndrome (perhaps the "Horton-Cook effect"?) Moseley and Westwell above have seen something, somewhere, perhaps on the WUWT site or similar deniablog, to the effect that CO2 concentrations in the air are variable. They see that CO2 can be higher in cities, and higher in the lower levels of the atmosphere, perhaps, if a bit more sophisticated they may have read that CO2 level can vary diurnally and seasonally and with wind speed. "Ha ha", they scream with delight, "how can anyone measure CO2 levels, those hockey stick style graphs are the result of cooking the books, hiding the decline, or are all just computer models. Gotcha. No One World Government for us now you evil Frankensteins." It never occurs to them for a moment that those people whose occupation it is to measure CO2 levels might, just, be aware of those issues. Might, just, after a lifetime of studying the subject, of refining techniques, of building on the work of hundreds of other scientists, past and present, of testing results against proxy measures, might, just, have taken them into account. Might, just, be in the business of comparing like with like, of siting measuring stations to reduce variation from pollution, of averaging out diurnal and seasonal and other effects. Might, in fact, be working like scientists do in all such areas of expertise. No, they cry, "all scientists are idiots, Anthony Watts says so, hah, couldn't measure the CO2 in a brown paper bag. I'll just go on to Skeptical Science and tell that idiot John Cook all about it." And they do.
124049. llewelly at 17:24 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Westwell at 14:57 PM on 15 February, 2010 :

        Beck found, “Since 1812, the CO2 concentration in northern hemispheric air has fluctuated exhibiting three high level maxima around 1825, 1857 and 1942 the latter showing more than 400 ppm.”

        Beck's work shows wild fluctuations in CO2 up until the point where regular measurements started. The fact that the period of highest quality measurements do not show wild fluctuations should provoke skepticism of those older measurements. As it happens, there is plenty of reason to believe the older measurements Beck relied upon are in error. Furthermore - they're in conflict with every well-understood proxy for CO2. More info here and here
124050. Marcus at 16:47 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Ah yes, Westwell, the Beck "Paper"-a perfect case of bad technique masquerading as science. Beck has simply collated every single recorded CO2 measurement made in the 19th century through to the early 20th century. There were manifold problems with this data though-the samples were all taken at near surface locations; many were taken in urban environments, where CO2 emissions from urban sources were extremely high; many of the samples were measured without internal controls & the measurement tools had a massive error by today's standards. Didn't you ever wonder why the error bars in his graph are actually *larger* than the actual levels of CO2 measured? The only reason this paper ever saw the light of day is because Energy & Environment has well known connections to a number of contrarian organizations. Meanwhile, Mauna Loa is located hundreds of kilometers from any urban source of CO2 & is at an altitude at which it is above the Inversion Layer. However, if you doubt the results of Mauno Loa, Westwell, then might I suggest you look at the almost identical readings from Cape Grim in Tasmania? Or are you suggesting that there is some kind of conspiracy between these two measuring stations to hide the "naturally high levels of CO2 which have have always been present in our atmosphere" (as you seem to imply)? Yet strangely these high CO2 concentrations never turn up in *any* of the correlating ice core segments.

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