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Comments 15501 to 15550:

15501. NorrisM at 14:14 PM on 24 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       nigel @ 129

       Thanks Nigel.  I had reported on Nextra's announcement earlier based upon it having been reported on Climatewire.  Still unclear to me on the battery storage issue but obviously that would be a major breakthrough.

15502. nigelj at 12:14 PM on 24 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       This is related: "How six Americans changed their mind about global warming".

       www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/21/climate/changed-minds-americans.html

       There appear to be several pathways to this, but one common factor is just actually reading some sensible books, or attending a well presented lecture by some climate expert. So facts do change some peoples minds.

       Instead, some  people are reading climate denialist websites, and think tank echo chamber websites because its easier and free, which is unfortunate. NASA has great material on their website on  the basics of climate change, presented more like a book.

       Perhaps people are suspicious of climate material in the daily news media, out of a basic distrust of the traditional print media. I think such distrust can be overstated. News media are like anyone, they don't want to get things constantly wrong, and be embarrassed constantly. You just have to read between the lines and use some sense.

       The other thing is, and I say this reluctantly, Al Gores movie probably didn't convince many Republicans for obvious reasons, because of Gores strong political affiliations. However it was still a very skilled and 99% accurate presentation imho. 

       While people should look at the information on its merits, rather than the source of the information, ideally the movie would have been better coming from National Geographic or someone similar. But it's all history now. And its hard to know, because a movie from some established movie company could have been too dry, and not grabbed peoples attention like Gores movie did.

15503. One Planet Only Forever at 10:14 AM on 24 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       nigelj,

       The most important thing for everyone to understand, admit and have guide their actions is that:

       • the only Good Purpose/Objective is actions that understandably improve the future for humanity.
       • any actions that are harmful to future generations are simply unacceptable, no matter how beneficial a portion of the current day population consider the harmful actions to be (the most appalling claim making includes making claims that current day perceptions of wealth inevitably grow into bigger better perceptions in the future, or that it is OK to create future negative consequences if the current day benefits are perceived to be bigger).

       If that completely universal understanding and acceptance ever develops, everyone honouring that understanding and never tempted to push a limit, there is no need for refereeing (or policing, or military power anywhere, or charities attempting to correct the inequities that otherwise develop). Of course that is a fairy tale future. And it is why ideologies based on the belief that 'Better Results will develop if people are freer to believe what they want and do as they please' have no real future.

       As the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" bluntly declared, the lack of concern for the future generations of humanity, and any other group that has no power to 'effectively get even with the ones benefiting from causing harm or higher risks of causing harm', is the reason so many unsustainable and harmful activities develop popular and profitable support. And those 'unsustainable and harmful to Others' ways of doing things are also easier and cheaper than more responsible ways of acting which makes it ore difficult for more responsible ways of pursuing profit to Win.

       And once an activity develops significant undeserved popularity or profitability it can be very difficult to correct the incorrect development.

       The much bigger climate change impact correction problem faced by today's generation of humanity, bigger in magnitude and the required rate of correction (as exposed by the continuing to improve awareness and understanding of climate science), is undeniably due to the lack of fair and responsible action by many of the most fortunate humans since the 1980s, since the time it became clear to all of those most fortunate humans that they 'had no Good Reason to continue to try to get away with what they had developed a damaging addiction to'.

15504. Tadaaa at 07:36 AM on 24 February 2018
       How to Change Your Mind About Climate Change
       

       @nigelj

       "I agree about climategate. Private emails from other organisations would probably be much the same or worse. In fact, what surprised me about climategate is how little of substance was revealed. It actually convinced me more that scientists could be trusted. "

       100% spot on - and me too, you put it better than i did

15505. nigelj at 05:52 AM on 24 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       Libertarians and conservatives could perhaps look at the issues this way. First they often point out that the alleged problem with command and control hierarchical economies is that a central body can become over constricting, and cannot have enough information to make optimal economic decisions. (F Hayek, 1899 -1992 talked along these approximate lines). This is a fair criticism, although since the age of advanced computers this theory may no longer actually be entirely correct.

       The idea of the market is to let individuals make free decisions and the market will decide what they buy and value. This enocurages innovation. (Adam Smith 1723 - 1790). I'm a fan of this basic theory fwiw.

       The problem with the market is individuals can also do things that are very destructive to the community or other individuals.

       The solution is that markets must be policied, and need boundaries and regulations imposed by government, or in a few limited situations organisations can be self policing. Behaviours known to be destructive to the community and other individuals must be illegal, but only if its harming them in significant and material ways ( JS Mill 1806 - 1873).

       If a specific behaviour, like using a dangerous material in certain situations is banned, this in no way stops innovation and individual initiative, because it doesn't stop people using that material in other situations. Since the basic purpose of markets is to encourage innovation, market rules do not damage markets, provided they are sensible rules. That is the main thing people need to know along with what OPOF says.

15506. One Planet Only Forever at 04:02 AM on 24 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       The development of better understanding regarding climate science is an important 'incremental' step for a person who has developed a strong preference for Conservative/Libertarian beliefs.

       I suggest the next incremental step in better understanding is the acceptance that the required objective of responsible leadership (in politics, business, media, academia ...), is to fairly correct what has incorrectly developed to limit the impact on future generations to 2.0 C increase.

       And the next logical increment of better understanding is the recognition of the failure of the Competitive Marketplace to responsibly respond for the benefit of the future of humanity. Consumerism and materialism competition to appear to be more prosperous than Others can incline many people to develop more desires to be freer to believe what they want and do as they please (including excusing understandably harmful ways of Winning their desired Private Interests to the detriment of Others including all those future generations of humanity who have no ability to effectively get 'even with them').

       The understanding of the harmfulness and unsustainability of the burning of fossil fuels was undeniably internationally established at the 1972 Stockholm Conference. The urgency of correcting the problem of CO2 from burning fossil fuels has become better understood since then. And the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" left no doubt about the main excuse for lack of responsible leadership by the winners in political and economic market competitions, a lack of action to limit harm done to future generations was popular and profitable because it could be gotten away with.

       The development of understanding since 1987 leading to the Kyoto Accord leaves less doubt about what acceptable/unacceptable leadership actions are. And the Paris Agreement tightens up that understanding.
       So, since 1987 (or earlier), the 'actions of already fairly fortunate people to still tried to get significant further benefit from the burning of fossil fuels rather than correcting their ways' is obviously a flaw in the Socio-economics of the Marketplace. It is as if the 'Invisible Hand was biased toward being harmful'. It is a result that clearly cannot be blamed on 'too much regulation of the marketplace games people play'. Though admittedly some 'regulations' like the attempts by some USA states to 'restrict the sale of Tesla vehicles in their state through regional regulation' are understandably deliberately harmful.

       That leads to the next increment of better understanding, the marketplace requires Helpful Refereeing; monitoring and enforcement that discourages harmful actions and encourages helpful actions.

       Those are admittedly big steps for some people to take, but those are logically the steps that they must take if they truly want to be helpful rather than harmful or irrelevant.

15507. One Planet Only Forever at 03:33 AM on 24 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       nigelj@128,

       Though everyone agrees to use the term incrementalism, I am almost certain that the likes of NorrisM do not agree that the objective of the incremental change must be limiting total global impacts to 2.0 C.

       NorrisM never responded to my comment @46, perhaps because my comment @62 accurately represented his position.

       However, NorrisM's comment @69 implied he was still considering a response to my requests for a response. But, my comment @70 may have 'pinned him down too much' for him to bother to try to ceate a reasonable sounding response. Or he may have considered my comment @90 to be an accurate understanding of his position.

       But NorrisM has commented since then in ways consistent with an understanding that the type of incrementalism he would support is actions that would likely significantly fail to meet the objective of limiting future impacts to 2.0 C increase.

       As I have mentioned in an earlier comment, doing less action earlier to meet an objective requires more action later. The likes of NorrisM appear to like the idea of having to do less (leaving more for others to do later), and even hoping to get away with prolonging their ability to benefit from the understood to be unacceptable activity or, even worse, increasing their ability to benefit from the damaging activity, developing an even bigger challenge that Others have to deal with.

       The understanding of the harmfulness and unsustainability of the burning of fossil fuels was undeniably internationally established at the 1972 Stockholm Conference. The urgency of correcting the problem of CO2 from burning fossil fuels has become better understood since then. And the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" left no doubt about the main excuse for lack of responsible leadership by the winners in political and economic market competitions, a lack of action to limit harm done to future generations was popular and profitable because it could be gotten away with.

       The development of understanding since 1987 leading to the Kyoto Accord leaves less doubt about what acceptable/unacceptable leadership actions are. And the Paris Agreement tightens up that understanding.

       So, since 1987 (or earlier), anyone who was already fairly fortunate but still tried to get significant further benefit from the burning of fossil fuels rather than correcting their ways has no excuse. Their developed perceptions of prosperity or opportunity deserve to be shattered, the sooner the better to 'be fairer' about achieving the undeniable required objective, fairly limiting global total impact to 2.0 C.

15508. NorrisM at 02:20 AM on 24 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Moderator

       I was disappointed to get to the end of this post only to find that further discussion had been terminated.  I was hoping to challenge Alchemyst to read a fascinating debate that took place on the curryetc website based upon a recent paper by Peter Lang.  Lang's questionable premise is that the "root cause" of the demise of the nuclear industry in the US were anti-nuke protesters which caused over regulation.  The paper is found in the December 2017 topics on the curry website.  I had been spending my time reading all 256 posts on that website before I commented here.

       However, Lang did not anticipate that someone with over 35 years experiencer in managing construction of nuclear plants in the US would take him on.  He goes by the name Beta Blocker for reasons explained in the blog.  His basic premise is that the poor managment processes of Westinghouse and others were largely to blame for the massive cost overruns which really sunk the industry and provided the fodder for the smarter nuclear protesters who appeared at hearings.

       My suggestion to respond to the suggestion of michael sweet was going to propose that you let Peter Lang publish his paper on this website and let others take a run at him.  I understand that there has been some "history" with Lang on this website which might complicate my suggestion.  Lang does not do well against Beta Blocker.

       There was one other commenter on that blog who was very knowledgeable called Ristvan.  His view in a nutshell is that concrete and steel sunk the nuclear industry.

       But the "supply" issue of nuclear sources suggested by Abbott does not seem to be the real issue given that the new nuclear reactors will use 99% rather than 1% of the energy in uranium.  Beta Blocker is clearly retired now but is in communication with those active in the industry.  I get the sense that Small Modular Reactors do show promise.  He also deals with storage issues.

       I undertstand that this post may not see the light of day but I wanted to support michael sweet's suggestion of a paper on this topic. 

       I believe you have my email as part of registration on this website if you want to reply without posting. 

15509. nigelj at 12:43 PM on 23 February 2018
       Standing Rock is everywhere: one year later
       

       On the subject of water:

       www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-could-cause-more-severe-droughts-98-per-cent-european-cities

       "More than 500 European cities could face sharp increases in droughts, floods and heatwaves if climate change continues to rise unabated, a new study finds."

15510. Alchemyst at 12:14 PM on 23 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
       

       nigelj

       we need to be in accrord halfnium

       could we rely on the grey econonmy here. I was renovating a house and had a tonne of timber to dipose, I'm ashamed to say I had the choice of paying $50 for the authorites to dispose or find an alterntive. we had a bonfire one summers night. thinking that this saved me money the next tonne we dumped it at the front of the house, spread the word that there was free firewood it took 2 weeks for he heap to just vanish.

       Burning wood in power stations is probay less efficient than wood burning stoves n the home. They convege the population into foragers 

15511. Tom Dayton at 10:38 AM on 23 February 2018
       What Does Statistically Significant Actually Mean?
       

       Here is a good 2017 article: "The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective," Kurschke & Liddell, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. Full text is available both in browser and as downloadable PDF.

15512. nigelj at 09:03 AM on 23 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       I don't have remotely enough knowledge of nuclear power technology to write an article. But Alchemyst, it appears you or anyone else are being given a golden opportunity here to submit something.

       I would just suggest an article needs to obviously be based on verifiable credible source material, with internet links, and should mention within the body of the article the problems as well as the benefits of nuclear, and in a full, open way. If it doesn't, it will be cut to pieces by readers, and called one sided. If its an article that is open and transparent, it may serve some useful purpose. I don't care if the tone of the article is negative or positive on the issue, as long as its upfront like this.

       But IMHO the writer is perfectly entitled to reach their conclusions firmly for or against nuclear power and as strongly as they wish, and is not expected to sit on the fence.

       I remain a bit sceptical of nuclear power, but hopefully not closed minded.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] No more please. Continued offtopic posts will be deleted.

15513. nigelj at 08:22 AM on 23 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
       

       Riduna, I must admit my instinctive reaction to BECCS isn't positive, so I need to see some convincing defence of the idea.

       However while BECCS makes electricity twice as expensive it is also drawing down atmospheric CO2. It would be interesing to know how much value this adds in dollar terms somehow?

       I agree no generating company is going to choose BECCS at this stage, unless they are amazingly green orientated. The only way to really implement BECCS is government command and control, or government subsidies that make it attractive enough. Neither are wrong in principle imho, however BECCS would need to prove itself robustly first.

15514. nigelj at 06:14 AM on 23 February 2018
       Standing Rock is everywhere: one year later
       

       Try telling the people in the white house. They can't seem to comprehend climate change, and that water can become a scarce resource.

       All politicians think about is next months profits, their own popularity, and that white man has all the answers. And they think a lot about their campaign donors. Politicians are all sock puppets for their campaign donors.

15515. nahs at 01:50 AM on 23 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       it is great to hear  a man from Conservative supporting climate change as a reality.i wish the congressman to follow Jerry Taylor's example,including The President Trump and support climate change actions.

15516. michael sweet at 01:48 AM on 23 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchymist,

       I must inform you that the BBC and Wikipedia are not peer reviewed sources.  You have provided no peer reviewed data to support your claims.  Abbott is peer reviewed.  Your BBC link is for school children. It does not give the full formulation of the conntrol rods.  Boron cannot be fashioned into rods by itself.  It must be mixed with and coated by other exotic materials to form the control rods.  You must account for all the materials put into the plant, not just a few of them.

       The breeder reactors you support are run at extremely high temperatures with extreme neutron fluxes.  All the piping, valves,fuel rods and the container vessel must be made of exotic metals and alloys to withstand the extreme conditions.  We have only the unsupported word of an anonymous person on the internet that all these materials exist against the peer reviewed study of Abbott, who is an expert in the field, that they do not exist.  You have provided no information to determine if the metals in the valves, piping and container are in sufficient supply to build.  We have only your personal assertion that the control rods can be manufactured.

       You are repeating yourself without providing supporting data.  That is sloganeering.  You have provided no peer reviewed data to support your claims, that is trolling.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] It is time to wrap this discussion. This site is not a good forum for discussions of pros and cons of nuclear power (BraveNewClimate did that better) and it is offtopic for this thread. If we had a thread based on peer-reviewed literature concerning nuclear power, then the science could be discussed there but so far we have not been able to find an author to write one. Volunteers welcome.

15517. Alchemyst at 01:21 AM on 23 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Sweet  you are trolling

       I have shown that Abbott is using whie swan arguments in his paper. 

       for example he quotes liitations on nuclear materials citing Halfnium. 

       I quote your post 13 feb 3:16 am

       "not enough rare elements like hafnium exist,"  

       How halfnium is hardly ever used in civilian reactors. So abundance linits does not pose a limitation on nuclear reactor build.

       Boron is the prefered  material, and there is no shortage of Boron in the world. this is taught to 14 year old schoolchildren in the UK 

       http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/intermediate2/physics/radioactivity/nuclear_power_stations/revision/2/

       You are trolling.

       For those interested see below. Howeve Sweet you are trolling, most people have been into the argument on one side or the other, but you even when your statment has been shown to be without basis

       My references in the earler post to nigelj, you now  state

       "note that you have provided no references that address Abbotts peer reviewed claims that not enough rare elements exist to build out nuclear power. None of your citations say how much of any metals are required to build the reactors you support. I have provided a reference to prove that enough materials exist to build out all needed renewable energy systems. Abbotts conclusion stands unchallenged."

       I pass you onto Wikipedia where the status of Halfnium in civilian reactors is stated  that it is hardly ever used and other materials are prefered.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_rod

       Control rods are used in nuclear reactors to control the fission rate of uranium and plutonium. They are composed of chemical elements such as boron, silver, indium and cadmium that are capable of absorbing many neutrons without themselves fissioning. Because these elements have different capture cross sections for neutrons of varying energies, the composition of the control rods must be designed for the reactor's neutron spectrum. Boiling water reactors (BWR), pressurized water reactors (PWR) and heavy water reactors (HWR) operate with thermal neutrons, while breeder reactors operate with fast neutrons.

       Halfnium has excellent properties for reactors using water for both moderation and cooling. It has good mechanical strength, can be easily fabricated, and is resistant to corrosion in hot water.[9] Hafnium can be alloyed with other elements, e.g. with tin and oxygen to increase tensile and creep strength, with iron, chromium and niobium for corrosion resistance, and with molybdenum for wear resistance, hardness and machineability. Such alloys are designated as Hafaloy, Hafaloy-M, Hafaloy-N, and Hafaloy-NM.[10] The high cost and low availability of hafnium limit its use in civilian reactors, although it is used in some US Navy reactors. Hafnium carbide can also be used as an insoluble material with a high melting point of 3890 °C and density higher than that of uranium dioxide for sinking unmelted through corium.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Given that your discorse with Michael Sweet has devolved into name calling and given that you are now engaging in excessive repitition, it is time to shut down this discussion. Your future posts on this topic will be summarily deleted. 

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
        
       Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion.  If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.

15518. michael sweet at 22:19 PM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchymist,

       Apparently I misread your post because you said "Sweet please try and stop insulting peoples inteligence" immediately after quoting me saying nuclear was much more expensive than renewable energy.  

       I am glad that we agree that nuclear energy cannot compete economically with renewable energy. 

       I note that you have provided no references that address Abbotts peer reviewed claims that not enough rare elements exist to build out nuclear power.  None of your citations say how much of any metals are required to build the reactors you support.  I have provided a reference to prove that enough materials exist to build out all needed renewable energy systems.  Abbotts conclusion stands unchallenged.

       Serious energy researchers do not consider significant amounts of nuclear energy in the mix in the future.  In Smart Energy Europe (cited at least 75 times in less than 2 years from publication) the first of 9 steps to convert to full renewable energy is to remove nuclear energy from the system.

       I note that none of your citations is peer reviewed.

15519. nigelj at 14:59 PM on 22 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       jclairea @8

       Good point. Pacific island nations get a double whammy. Serious sea level rise, stronger tropical cyclones, water salination problems, lack of resources.

       I also see what you are doing there. Demolishing his comments with niceness.

15520. One Planet Only Forever at 14:54 PM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #7
       

       In addition to the recent dramatic and concerning history of Arctic Sea Ice and climate changes, there is the following new news report today February 21, by  Jason Samenow in the Washington Post (not Fake): Arctic temperatures soar 45 degrees above normal, flooded by extremely mild air on all sides

15521. Going South at 13:50 PM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #7
       

       Or we could talk about the year average for 2017. 2nd lowest for extent, but lowest ever for volume. Just sayin' ....

15522. nigelj at 12:22 PM on 22 February 2018
       “How is That Conservative?” Former Climate Denier now Backs Action
       

       It's great to see someone like Jerry Taylor change his views. It just takes some careful reading on climate change. The climate scientists sceptical of agw are in a small minority, but can be quite loud and have impressive degrees. The trick is to check their claims very carefully, because all is not always as it seems.

       As the article says the key thing is climate change threatens property, and both conservatives and libertarians are concerned with property rights. As more of a political moderate, I can definitely also relate to that view. Its excellent common ground right across the political spectrum.

15523. nigelj at 11:37 AM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       NorrisM

       You may want to read this on renewable electricity and battery storage. Theres not much detail, probably due to  commercial sensitivity, but its interesting.

       www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/29/16944178/utility-ceo-renewables-cheaper

       "A final intriguing note: Robo says the company is hard at work on combining renewables with storage. “We recently submitted a bid at a very competitive price for a combined wind, solar, and battery storage product,” he said, “that is able to provide an around-the-clock, nearly firm, shaped product specifically designed to meet the customers’ needs.”

15524. Alchemyst at 10:42 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Dear sweet,

       please could you point out where I said that nuclear can compete with renewables.

       I have not stated it.

15525. michael sweet at 10:29 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchymist,

       I see others have  responded to most of your wild, unsupported claims.  I will address only your unsupported assertion that nuclear can compete with renewable energy.

       According to many news reports:

       "On a Q4 earnings conference call on Friday, Robo [CEO of NextEra Energy] predicted that by the early 2020s, it will be cheaper to build new renewables than to continue running existing coal and nuclear plants" my emphasis.

       Since capitol costs are so high for nuclear plants they are already more expensive than renewable energy.  The builds at Georgia and South Carolina were supposed to prove that the nuclear industry could build on time and on budget.  Two reactors have been abandoned half finished and far over budget.  Westinghouse, the primary contractor, is bankrupt and the remaining build is near abandonment, way over budget and years behind schedule.

       Renewables are the way of the  future.

15526. nigelj at 10:28 AM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       OPOF, many thanks for that tip on how to find the original research study.

       So everyone is agreed on incrementalism. Its just the size of the increments!

       I always thinks its better to just get started, and do something, than debate endlessly about problems. Things can always be modified in accordance with changing circumstances, or if results are not acceptable in some way.

       Looking at history, consumption taxes don't normally cause the huge problems the scaremongers claim. One fear is that taxes become embedded and hard to reverse, however the climate issue means a carbon tax would eventually do its job, and would thus inevitably expire as alternative energy becomes abundant and permanent. Its not so much like a soft drink tax, that might be more a permanent fixture, designed just to pay for health costs.

15527. One Planet Only Forever at 08:42 AM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       nigelj@126,

       The article John writes about @111 is regarding a study that was submitted to Nature Sustainability on 08 August 2017. It was published on 05 February 2018 (to get to the article you click on the Nature Sustainability link at the end of the article).

       This is more recent than the 2016 article you referred to. And it is a very different type of evaluation. It is very applicable to climate science because it points out that “The most difficult biophysical boundary to meet is climate change: only 34% of countries are within the per capita boundary for this indicator.”

       I will add that I also agree with incrementalism. That is basically what the Kyoto Accord followed by the Paris Agreement is. The Kyoto Accord was the first serious coordinated global effort by the most fortunate nations to show leadership on transitioning human activity away from the unsustainable and harmful burning of fossil fuels. The Paris Agreement was the next increment. It clarified the ultimate objective as keeping total impacts below the 2.0 C threshold, and aspiring to limit impacts on future generations to 1.5 C which almost certainly will require charitable actions (actions that do not benefit the ones paying for them to be done) that effectively reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. The first increment of the Paris Agreement is the initial pledges of action by all nations. The next increments are the ratcheting up of the actions as required to have all nations equitably work on solving the problem, equitably including the understanding that those nations that benefited most from the current developed scale of the problem should be expected to do more to correct the problem.

       The incremental application of measures like carbon taxes would be to start with a rate of taxation then observe the result. After a few years adjust the tax rate or implement other measures as required to get closer to achieving the required result (combined global actions limited to a 2.0 C increase). Repeat the increase of tax or implementation of other measures as required to meet the required objective. Note that less action done earlier means more action will be required later.

       That is the expected result of the Paris Agreement - Continuing the Incrementalism after the first stage that was the efforts to meet the Kyoto commitments. Of course any nation that had members who deliberately resisted participating in correcting the incorrect developed ways of living after Kyoto would have developed a bigger current day challenge that now needs to be corrected. Since the need to transition from burning fossil fuels was well understood before Kyoto there is no reason for anyone to feel sorry for current day people who 'will suffer due to having to make more significant changes to 'fairly contribute to meeting the required global objective'. The real key is making sure that the ones who deserve to suffer most are actually the ones who suffer the most form the required correction.

       Some people figured out what is inevitably going to have to happen if humanity is to sustainably develop a better future. But instead of supporting the education of the population about the required changes and correctly identifying who should change or suffer, they try to argue for incrementalism that will fail to limit the harm to others (including future generations), choosing to demand/declare that the required incrementalism is incrementalism that in no way negatively affects them (many of them actually understand that they deserve to be negatively affected by the required corrections of what has developed - they can be expected to fight the hardest against admitting what the appropriate objective is, using the popularity of profitable harmful unsustainable activities as their main excuse to defend those activities).

       And what is undeniable is that more fortunate people who did not transition away from the burning of fossil fuels could gain a competitive advantage relative to those who more responsibly changed their ways. Deliberate attempts to get competitive advantage that way since Kyoto deserve a penalty. That will likely need to be corrected by targeted trade sanctions against those people who have shown a history of trying to Win that way. To 'be fair', it appears inevitable that targeted trade sanctions will be required to penalize things like attempts by people in nations like the USA, Canada, and Australia (the supposedly more advanced nations on the planet), to continue to benefit from the burning of coal (including exports of coal for burning elsewhere). And those actions targeting already fortunate people who continue to try to benefit from the burning of coal will likely need to incrementally be expanded to target already fortunate people who continue to try to benefit from the burning of bitumen, then oil, then natural gas, as required to achieve the agreed objective of 'fairly' limiting the harm done to future generations.

15528. Philippe Chantreau at 08:34 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchemyst is quite elogious on China's nuclear program. I looked into it a little to see if the usual problems were better dealt with (delays and cost overruns) and was not so impressed. Alchemyst refered to Wikipedia, so I'm taking it as an acceptable source of information.

       The Wiki on China nuclear program reveals a mixed picture. The first 3 links in post 21 refers to the CAP 1400 reactors, an evolution of the Westinghouse AP1000 design, set to be built at the Shidawoan site. One link is from 2014, the other 2016, the last from 2017 mentions the scaled down version of the Westinghouse design. The current Shidawoan installation is a proof of concept demonstration project, which was set to be connected to the grid in 2018. That first unit is a 200 MW scaled down version of the full size 1400 MW design. The CAP1400 design passed the IAEA generic reactor safety review in 2015 and construction was set to begin by the end of that year. However, as of 2017, construction has been postponed because of the significant delays in completing the AP1000, Westinghouse older design. Westinghouse was majority owned by Toshiba but has filed for bankruptcy, which could be a major hurdle in bringing the CAP1400 design into existence. My take is that enthusiasm for the AP1400 should wait at least until construction is well under way and we're nowhere close to that.

       The problems with nuclear energy remain: it is extremely expensive, usually more than planned; construction takes a long time, once again usually more than planned. Plants have a limited life span, beyond 40-50 years the upkeep adds significant costs to production. 

       The CANDU (pressurized heavy water reactors pioneered in Canada) types of plants look like a good idea in theory, especially from the operational safety point of view, although tritium emissions need attention. The fact that they can draw from a variety of fue sources and recovered uranium also speaks in their favor. The CANDU6 reactors built in Quinshan can boast of their completion on schedule and on budget, refreshing among modern built facilities. Most such reactors are found in Ontario, and many have been decommissioned, sometimes at very high costs. Economic performance does not call for more enthusiasm than the yet-to-be-started AP1400. From the CANDU wiki:

       "Based on Ontario's record, the economic performance of the CANDU system is quite poor.[according to whom?] Although much attention has been focussed on the problems with the Darlington plant, every CANDU design in Ontario went over budget by at least 25%, and average over 150% higher than estimated.[66] Darlington was the worst, at 350% over budget, but this project was stopped in-progress thereby incurring additional interest charges during a period of high interest rates, which is a special situation that was not expected to repeat itself."

       Furthermore: "In 1998, Ontario Hydro calculated that the cost of generation from CANDU was 7.7 cents/kWh, whereas hydropower was only 1.1 cents, and their coal-fired plants were 4.3 cents. As Ontario Hydro received a regulated price averaging 6.3 cents/kWh for power in this period, the revenues from the other forms of generation were being used to fund the operating losses of the nuclear plants."

       Nuclear is no panacea and does not deserve less careful consideration than any other solution.

15529. Daniel Bailey at 07:44 AM on 22 February 2018
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       "a outlier paper (Zwally 2015)"

       Let's look at that: 
       
       Zwally et al 2015 took an unconventional approach to assessing the mass balance of Antarctica. Unlike other studies, before and since, that used satellite altimetry or satellite gravimetric methods, Zwally’s team chose to compare net snowfall accumulation to estimated ice discharge to the ocean in a dataset that ended in 2008. In order to do this type of analysis properly, 3 main things are needed:

       1. It is critical to use the most optimal corrections for instrument biases (the ICESat data used need to have the appropriate saturation bias corrections to get real-world answers that are reproducible)
       2. The most-accurate densities of snow have to be used
       3. The most-optimal values for changes in bedrock elevation (GIA) in response to ice sheet mass changes have to be used

       As has been since determined by multiple studies (A, B, C, D, E, F and G, listed following):

       1. The ICESat bias corrections used by the Zwally team were appropriate for measuring sea ice, but not for measuring high altitude land-base ice sheets like found in Antarctica (the values returned for Lake Vostok alone were so unphysical that they should have made the entire study DOA)
       2. A value for snowfall density different than that determined by decades of land-based research was used
       3. The values used by the Zwally team to correct for GIA were too high by a factor of 2

       As such, their results cannot be reproduced using well-established bias corrections, known snow densities and more appropriate values for GIA.

       Looking at even more recent studies, per Gardner et al 2018:

       "Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr−1 between 2008 and 2015."

       Results from the recent IMBIE Team from 2018 show that Antarctic ice sheet mass losses are accelerating, tripling their contribution to global sea level rise since 2012.

       

       Lastly, Bamber et al 2018 subtly but firmly savages Zwally et al 2015:

       "Issues with the approach used for calibration of the altimetry by Zwally et al have been identified (Scambos and Shuman 2016) and an attempt to replicate the trends using similar assumptions for the physical mechanism could not reproduce the large positive balance they found (Mart´ın-Espanol ̃ et al 2017). For these reasons, we believe that the estimates from this study are likely erroneous"

       The values for the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance from NASA GRACE are the most current available (to January 2017). An ever-strengthening, consilient body of research using multiple methods all point to that conclusion.

       Reference studies:

       A. Scambos et al 2016 Comment on Zwally et al 2015

       B. Martín-Español et al 2016 - Spatial and temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet mass trends, glacio-isostatic adjustment, and surface processes from a joint inversion of satellite altimeter, gravity, and GPS data

       C. Schröder et al 2017 - Validation of satellite altimetry by kinematic GNSS in central East Antarctica

       D. Martín-Español et al 2017 - Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

       E. Gardner et al 2018 - Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

       F. The IMBIE Team 2018 - Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017

       G. Bamber et al 2018 - The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era

       Interestingly, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass contributions from land-based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. Recent research now has isolated the individual ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise.

       Per Hsu and Velicogna 2017, between April 2002 and October 2014, the mass component of global mean sea level grew by about 1.8 millimeters per year, with 43 percent of the increased water mass coming from Greenland, 16 percent from Antarctica, and 30 percent from mountain glaciers. There is an additional ~1 mm per year of SLR coming from thermal expansion (H/T to Victor Zlotnicki).

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Edited to add references to sources E, F and G.

15530. jclairea at 07:42 AM on 22 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2012/04/01/pacific-islands-disaster-risk-reduction-and-financing-in-the-pacific

       ^World Bank article I referenced in previous post.

15531. jclairea at 07:41 AM on 22 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       @jef, I agree with your critiques of this article’s advancement of both reducing atmospheric carbon levels now, while also encouraging a low-carbon future, which it does without an inclusion of how individuals or groups might take action. You are absolutely correct in saying that what is needed is truth speaking to the masses, which is a “herculean task,” yet should be of utmost importance given climate change’s immediacy. The article discusses Antartica’s importance in being a reservoir of 70% of our world’s freshwater, with melting ice sheets and the resultant sea rise posing great danger to over 150 million people globally. Unfortunately, climate change is not at all fair, having perverse asymmetry of impacts and interests, meaning those who contribute the least are often impacted the most. The article alludes to this by describing the potential future threat to populated areas such as Florida and New York, but the “immediate and acute” threat small low-elevation islands are already facing, such as the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Due to their fragile environments and often unstable economies, island nations tend to struggle greatly at bouncing back after a devastating natural disaster, for they simply do not have the resources to be resiliently reactive. Ten years ago, the World Bank created the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) in order to establish risk assessment strategies, while developing pragmatic financial and technical applications to try and mitigate these islands’ susceptibility to disasters. As a prominent global development organization, The World Bank has an interest in lessening poverty seen around the world via sustainable solutions; but if major contributors to climate change are not working to lessen their carbon footprints, will such mitigation strategies truly be effective?

15532. Daniel Bailey at 07:39 AM on 22 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       "the overall increase in Antarctica ice"

       Zwally et al 2015 took an unconventional approach to assessing the mass balance of Antarctica. Unlike other studies, before and since, that used satellite altimetry or satellite gravimetric methods, Zwally’s team chose to compare net snowfall accumulation to estimated ice discharge to the ocean. In order to do this type of analysis properly, 3 main things are needed:

       1. It is critical to use the most optimal corrections for instrument biases (the ICESat data used need to have the appropriate saturation bias corrections to get real-world answers that are reproducible)
       2. The most-accurate densities of snow have to be used
       3. The most-optimal values for changes in bedrock elevation (GIA) in response to ice sheet mass changes have to be used

       As has been since determined by multiple studies (A, B, C and D, listed following):

       1. The ICESat bias corrections used by the Zwally team were appropriate for measuring sea ice, but not for measuring high altitude land-base ice sheets like found in Antarctica (the values returned for Lake Vostok alone were so unphysical that they should have made the entire study DOA)
       2. A value for snowfall density different than that determined by decades of land-based research was used
       3. The values used by the Zwally team to correct for GIA were too high by a factor of 2

       As such, their results cannot be reproduced using well-established bias corrections, known snow densities and more appropriate values for GIA.

       The values for the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance from NASA GRACE are the most current available (to January 2017). An ever-strengthening, consilient body of research using multiple methods all point to that conclusion.

       Reference studies:

       A. Scambos et al 2016 Comment on Zwally et al 2015

       B. Martín-Español et al 2016 - Spatial and temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet mass trends, glacio-isostatic adjustment, and surface processes from a joint inversion of satellite altimeter, gravity, and GPS data

       C. Schröder et al 2017 - Validation of satellite altimetry by kinematic GNSS in central East Antarctica

       D. Martín-Español et al 2017 - Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

       Interestingly, previous research has shown that ice sheet mass contributions from land-based ice sheets have exceeded thermal expansion as the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. Recent research now has isolated the individual ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise.

       Per Hsu and Velicogna 2017, between April 2002 and October 2014, the mass component of global mean sea level grew by about 1.8 millimeters per year, with 43 percent of the increased water mass coming from Greenland, 16 percent from Antarctica, and 30 percent from mountain glaciers. There is an additional ~1 mm per year of SLR coming from thermal expansion (H/T to Victor Zlotnicki).

15533. scaddenp at 07:26 AM on 22 February 2018
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       And just a reminder, that on this site, you must provide references to support your beliefs. Otherwise you will be moderated for sloganeering.

15534. scaddenp at 07:25 AM on 22 February 2018
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       Hmm, if you are fixating on a outlier paper (Zwally 2015), then I suspect you are using extremely suspect sources for your information. Gravity and altimitry methods both have weaknesses (but different ones). A clever approach which reconciles the metholodies by a joint inversion of altmetry, gravity and GPS is Espanol et al 2016. Their approach demonstrates a sustained net mass loss of  84+/- 22 Gt/yr.

       "How about helping the developing countries develop and solve an ongoing humanitarian crisis now that oh by the way is truly polluting the environment?" Why do you believe fixing climate (which is important way to help developing countries) is incompatiable with your perceived priorities?

15535. Philippe Chantreau at 06:49 AM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #7
       

       Alchemyst coments about last summer sea ice extent. How about the current values? 

       NSIDC, February 6, 2018:

       "January of 2018 began and ended with satellite-era record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, resulting in a new record low for the month. Combined with low ice extent in the Antarctic, global sea ice extent is also at a record low." (emphasis added) 

15536. nigelj at 06:14 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchemyst @21

       Right now nuclear is safer than other sources of electricity. I just wonder how the statistics will look if multiple third world countries have reactors. It wont take many accidents to radically change the statistics per mwhr.

       But listen. I'm not firmly opposed to nuclear power in principle. I have always said its an individual countries choice on what suits them. I doubt nuclear will become prolific enough for my worst fears about safety to materialise, so Im not too worried over the issue.

       I agree safety it is a public perception thing. But you can hardly blame people. Like I said, nuclear accidents are shocking, and have a sort of disproportionate effect on our consciousness. Its the same as the way some people respond to islamic terrorism, they go batshit crazy. In fact more people in the USA are killed by lawn mower accidents each year on average. But its the unpredictability of terrorism and its gruesome nature that scares people, and much the same can be said of nuclear accidents, because they are just so unpredictable, deadly and the contamination is both a real problem, and an insidious sort of thing psychologically.

       However its hard changing human nature, and so on that basis I suggest the nuclear industry needs a "gamechanger" technology in terms of safety, something that really makes a fresh start. You can't blame the green lobby. The general public look at the issues for themselves.

       You quote the example of China, and rapid progress with nuclear power. Ok fair enough. Obviously in a dictatorship they don't care about any public opposition like in the west. This is great for the nuclear industry,  do you really want to live under a dictatorship? And this dictatorship has made a mess of their environment in other respects.

       I also wonder how many safety shortcuts are made in China to build the reactors that fast.

       Western countries are free market democracies. I like that on the whole. People have a right to protest and long may this remain. Safety standards are likely going to be better than China and if this slows down construction, "so be it".

       Electricity generators in America for example make the choice of nuclear or wind power, and I think it should be left to them to make that choice. Do you think governments should force nuclear power on 1)the population, and 2) onto generating companies? Seems too draconian to me and not in line with western values.

       Having said that, government has to ensure the electricity system is stable, and of course lines companies have to ensure stability of supply. NZ has legislation requiring generators provide adequate generation to cope with shortgages etc, so this forces the electricity companies to carefully consider all options. They will build nuclear - if they absolutely have to for stability of supply. But right now wind and solar are economically attractive options. But my point is this seems like a generally good overall framework of decision making, that balances a free market with the state ensuring there is fundamental stability of supply

       Regarding Halfnium, I do not know enough to really comment. However I was reading an article the other day that the world only has 50 years of cobalt left (ok it will be more in reality, but you hopefully see the point). The point Im making is many minerals have limited reserves. If Nuclear expands radically, it seems a fair bet some of its metals requirements are going to get expensive. Of course lets be fair, this is not unique to the nuclear industry, but nuclear power uses a lot of specialist metals, and its another problem to add to an industry with problems.

15537. Alchemyst at 05:05 AM on 22 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #7
       

       The Arctic having the second lowest (or as this year the third lowest) summer ice does not ring the same bell as the lowest, probably best not to ring it too loudly.

15538. David Kirtley at 04:17 AM on 22 February 2018
       How to Change Your Mind About Climate Change
       

       Here's a good companion piece in today's NYTimes: How Six Americans Changed Their Minds about Global Warming.

       And Peter Sinclair has a new video about Jerry Taylor at Yale Climate Connections.

15539. Alchemyst at 04:11 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       Alchymst,
       Proposed theoretical reactors that have never been built are not solutions. 

       3 have been built 2 in Germany which the green lobby shut down and one in China (see refs in above post)

       Abbott discusses the breeder reactors you propose.

       No he does not he only dicusses  liquid cooled reactors not gas cooled as I proposed

       The fact that none have been able to run for significant amounts without problems tells us how likely it is that they will be useful in a reasonable amount of time.

       The Julich demonstration reactor reactor ran for 20 years

       Work out a timeline: if they have a design next week it will take them 5-10 years to build. Then it will take 5-10 years to determine if the alloys they have chosen can withstand the extreme conditions in the breeder reactor and if their complex purification scheme for the fuel will work (both unlikely).

       
       China  is loading the first reactor, 7 more are in various stages of construction on the site, see above post for reference

       Then they will have to apply to scale up and buiild new plants which take 9-19 years to build from the initial proposal. It will be at least 5+5+9 = 19 years before the first plants will be on-line in 2037. That is too late, we need a solution that we can build out today.

       see previos comment 1 is being loaded 7 more are in construction

       Abbott used the diagram of elemental abundance to show that the elements needed for nuclear reactors do not work. He included a table of how much of these metals are currently in production and current reserves which you did not address.

       Abbot for example used halfnium as a rare metal which was needed in a nuclear reactor. halfnium is used in submarines as cost is of litte object. Civilian reactors use Boron, Cadmium and silver for references see above. one of the references is for 14 year old schoolscience in the UK, so if children are expected to know this why the fuss about halfnium. The second ref is from the nuclear engineering department Berkley, California.  

       This data showed that there are not enough materials for your nulcear utopia. Apparently Berylium is one of the key short materials. I mentioned it above but it appears to have slipped your memory.

       Beryllium is a reflector it is used for small reactors and for starters. It is not needed for large reactors. no reference but a bit of physics. Beryllium reflectors bounce back the neutrons into the reactor. For this to work the k infinity of the core material is greater than unity. If k infinity is greater than one then a sufficiently large reactor does not need a reflector, and does not need to infinite! 

       India's "thorium reactor" includes uranium to burn the thorium. In 2013 it was scheduled to fire up in 2014. In 2014 in 2015, in 2015 2016, and last summer (2017) in early 2018. It has not fired up yet. Placing all your money on an untried technology that is years behind schedule and even in the best case will not be ready in time is not a very good plan. Not very convincing.

       The advanced heavy water reactor (AHWR) is one of the few proposed large-scale uses of thorium.[52] India is developing this technology, their interest motivated by substantial thorium reserves; almost a third of the world's thorium reserves are in India, which also lacks significant uranium reserves.

       The third and final core of the Shippingport Atomic Power Station 60 MWe reactor was a light water thorium breeder, which began operating in 1977.[53] It used pellets made of thorium dioxide and uranium-233 oxide; initially, the U-233 content of the pellets was 5–6% in the seed region, 1.5–3% in the blanket region and none in the reflector region. It operated at 236 MWt, generating 60 MWe and ultimately produced over 2.1 billion kilowatt hours of electricity. After five years, the core was removed and found to contain nearly 1.4% more fissile material than when it was installed, demonstrating that breeding from thorium had occurred.[54][55]

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor

       In any case, nuclear is completely uneconomic. Renewable energy is half the cost of nuclear.
       If you cannot be bothered to find references to support your wild claims you should comment at anonther site where they do not care what absurd claims you make up.

       Sweet please try and stop insulting peoples inteligence

15540. Alchemyst at 03:36 AM on 22 February 2018
       The EPA debunked Administrator Pruitt’s latest climate misinformation
       

       nigelj,

       Nuclear safety is much better than other fuel/energy producers. The difficulties are public perception of these accidents. for example the THTR reactor that used thorium uranium fuel mixture was shut down regarding an accident that released a small amount of radiation outside the building. This was following Chernobyl and with the Green lobby, the German Parliament it was used as a pretext to shut the building down.  The designs are currently being used for a scaled up reactor in China. The article fails to mention that the reactor is capable of using thorium fuel.

       https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600757/china-could-have-a-meltdown-proof-nuclear-reactor-next-year/

       https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/04/construction-progresses-on-chinas-high.html

       https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/04/china-has-started-loading-pebble-bed-fuel-into-new-reactor-which-will-begin-operation-later-this-year.html

       Your point on contaminated land is probably the most pertinent, certainly in the west, as in order to maintain low radiological doses people are removed from the proximity of the leak, But you must remember that the biggest leak of artificial radiation occurred in the 1950s, 1960s during the bomb tests.

       In the west the green lobbies are strong, but I do not hear much from these in places like China, Iran and Russia. They will carry on with their nuclear programs and ignore the West hesitation. There will not be problems with siting the reactors too close to population centres.

       Unhampered by lack of energy resources these economies will grow and will get more powerful and so will be able to overshaow the West
       . We are already seeing this in China which is becoming to dominate the far east and is busily influecing a lot of the countries in development inAfrica and South America. If the west do not thrive economically then the eastern block will overtake the western economies.  

       ps here is a reference to the use of Boron insted of Halfnium in nuclear reactors

       https://www.bbc.co.uk/education/guides/zpp4jxs/revision/2

       what it pinot out is that it is taught to 14 year olds in Britain was ignored in Abbott and the peer reviewers

       http://fhr.nuc.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/12-007_Boron_Use_in_PWRs_and_FHRs.pdf

15541. michael sweet at 02:10 AM on 22 February 2018
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       Fishfear

       According to the most recent summary by the US Global Climate Change Research Program, the official report of the Trump administration, for sea level "A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out."  That would cause a loss of more than a trillion dollars of real estate in Miami alone.  World wide hundreds of millions of peoples homes would be washed away.

       Your unsupported claim that " Even during the most rapid ocean rise scenarios things will be just fine..." is simply false.

       According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice around Antarctica has set record lows each of the past two years.  The land ice is declining at an increasig rate according to gravity measurements.  

       Your claims are all simply false.  Please provide evidence to support your wild claims.

15542. fishfear at 23:12 PM on 21 February 2018
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       I watch the video from years ago and giggle... "The unexpectedly rapid loss of land ice..." Assuming the maximum temps projected by the IPCC does this young man understand how long it would take for a even a 10% melt? Even during the most rapid ocean rise scenarios things will be just fine... The sky is not falling. How about helping the developing countries develop and solve an ongoing humanitarian crisis now that oh by the way is truly polluting the environment?

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] That video from "years ago" was made only 2.5 years ago. In my response to your previous comment I gave you a link to a Scientific American article that references studies from last year, which you could read if you were sincerely interested in learning. That "young man" in the video was a PhD candidate with a large number of peer reviewed professional publications directly relevant to the topic he was speaking about in that video. (A remarkable number of publications for a PhD student!) Now he is a postdoctoral fellow. His degrees and postdoc all are directly relevant: physical geography, geomatics, spatial analysis, glaciology, permafrost science, and northern environmental change.

       Meanwhile you claim you are "working on" a PhD and have failed to respond to the specific counters to your claims that I already provided.

       The percent of land ice melt is not relevant. What matters is the absolute amount of water released by the melt. Someone actually enrolled in a PhD program in planetary geology would know that.

       Read the post about how much sea level will rise. After you read the Basic tabbed pane, read the Intermediate one. Watch the two videos. Then read professional statistician (multiple peer reviewed publications on climate change) Tamino's explanation of a new paper supporting the existence of sea level rise acceleration so much that by the year 2100 sea level would be .654 meters higher than in 2005, supporting the projections of IPCC AR5's RCP 8.5. Then explore the Surging Seas site to see the concrete, practical implications of that amount of rise, but keep in mind that the amount of rise could be double that .654 meters which was only extrapolated from observations up to now, because the current acceleration easily could increase. Then explore the US Geological Surveys site on sea level. If you really are enrolled in a PhD program, you should be able to handle the AR5 WG1's Chapter 13 on Sea Level Change. To learn about impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, read WG2's report.

15543. fishfear at 20:45 PM on 21 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       NASA's Operation Icebridge... Please Google it and then ask yourself why a search of Skeptical Science has no mention of the on going definitive research that now shows the overall increase in Antarctica ice. One would think this would be at least worth a mention... Right?

       PS I have a BS in physical science, a MBA and I'm working on my PhD in planetary geology. I'm NOT a warming denier I'm just convinced CO2's role has been overblown and like the proverbial squirrel, we have taken our eye off the ball and should be helping a billion plus people in the developing world live better lives and stop polluting our little blue ball.

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] Entering "Operation Icebridge" in the SkepticalScience Search field at the top left of every page reveals several hits. So what? Googling yields a bunch of hits, at least the first dozen of which fail to even hint at any "definitive research that now shows the overall increase in Antarctica ice." But there is a very informative page that should be comprehensible to someone who is "working on" a PhD in planetary geology.

       Entering "Antarctic" in the Skeptical Science search field yields many hits, including a response to the myth "Antarctica is gaining ice."

       Perhaps you are fixated on Zwally's 2015 paper. A more recent (July 2017) Scientific American article describes more recent research than that particular Skeptical Science post does, explaining that most scientists who study Antarctic land ice believe that its net is loss, not gain. Perhaps even Zwally:

       Zwally's study team claimed that if mass losses in West Antarctica continued to increase, it would only be a few decades before they overtook the gains in the east. Also, the team has additional, unpublished data showing the mass losses in West Antarctica have not only increased, but have tripled—at least from 2009 to 2012. Early data show 2016 might have been the tipping point at which losses in West Antarctica became so great that they equaled those gains in East Antarctica. That means Zwally's results might already be in agreement with others on the key point: this frigid land—one that holds the fate of much of humanity—is melting.

       A sincere word of advice from someone who's already gotten a natural science PhD: If you really are working on a PhD in planetary geology, you need to search the literature more thoroughly and critically, and synthesize what you find. PhD quality work is a big step up from BS quality work.

15544. nigelj at 17:31 PM on 21 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       I read what appears to be the same article referenced by John Hartz @111 but in New Scientist 10 Feb. "Rags to Riches. It's official we cant be wealthy without trashing the planet".

       Anyway, great article, but sadly the article was just too short to really do the subject justice.

       I have been debating sustainability, resource scarcity, etcecetera with some people on another website. I tell you a lot of things will have to change, or the planet will teach us some bitter lessons and force change. But its off the climate change topic. Anyway I remain an optimist.

       This may be of related interest on economic growth and why we may be heading to reduced growth rates:

       www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/economic-growth-jobs-recession-slowed-technology-214220

       I have the same basic belief as OPOF: we have to ensure everyone progresses, not just a few. There are many reasons for this, not simply compassion, there are security and economic reasons. It doesnt have to be relentlessly exact, but we need to be going in at least roughly the right direction.

15545. NorrisM at 15:25 PM on 21 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       nigelj @ 21

       We obviously have some similar interests.  I have "Behave" by Robert Sapolsky sitting at home in Vancouver.  Too heavy to lug down here.  Instead I brought along Steven Pinker's new book "Enlightenment Now".

       One of the interesting parts of spending some time down south (for us in Canada) is the chance to "rub shoulders" with some real Republicans.  Last night we were seated at a restaurant by a retired internist and his wife from Oregon.  They were clear Trump supporters but clearly acknowledging that Trump had personality disorders (sounds like Paul Ryan).  But he actually described American society as an "eat what you kill" society and seemed happy with it.  For a medical doctor to espouse this view was somewhat surprising and disappointing.  His only justification for "gerrymongering" was "that is the way it has always been" (again very happy with it).  Although we did not have time to get into it, I think he rolled his eyes when he (not me) mentioned climate change.  So Trump supporters are not just the ones alienated from globalization.  A little "anecdotal" but there are some pretty wide gaps in US society.  He blames the media on both sides for the disconnect that has developed between Democrats and Republicans over the last 30 years.   On the other hand, there was another couple from Washington state who, when they found we were Canadian, were very apologetic about the US and Trump.  The fellow had a fleecy on with the word "Canada" emblazoned on it. He said he bought it in Vancouver and planned to wear it on their upcoming trip to Great Britain.  Pretty scary to see this gap in the most powerful democracy in the world.

15546. Eclectic at 14:49 PM on 21 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       NorrisM @ 119,

       I like your story of Bob Woodward and his "sole exception of Richard Nixon".

       The story is somewhat dated now, for I gather Woodward has just recently added a "second exception".

       All the same, it illustrates how those who are evil-doers can still believe (at least in some small part of their brain) that they they are working towards the public good. 

15547. nigelj at 13:55 PM on 21 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       Jef @3

       I dont see where your lack of clarity is. The "article" is actually mostly on Antarctic ice loss, and the considerable dangers of this. You are missing this fundamental point. You claim its got no references, but its full of links.

       I dont really know what you are referring to on technology. Theres a link to something on blended hydrogen, but its hardly the main point of the article. You seem a little off topic to me.

       You say " I have personally worked on several biofuel, syngas, biochar, and other projects alongside university efforts over the last 10 to 15 years and none of them are still active, all were essentially failures or a net wash at best. In other words as much is saved as is generated."

       Your claims of experiments are not compelling and are anecdotal. Provide a link so I can check. We have a highly profitable synthetic methanol plant in my country and biofuels are actually quite well established now.

       "Most if not all “renewable” energy is 100% dependent on FFs. They are a FF extender at best."

       Only in their production, and studies show they reduce CO2 over time. Refer below.

       www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2010/09/the-facts-about-wind-energy-and-emissions.html

       www.scientificamerican.com/article/wind-power-proves-effective-co2-saver/

       You sir just post a lot of claims, but not much in the way of peer reviewed analysis, or something from a recognised mainstream science magazine to back it up.

       Like Riduna says there are ways of reducing emissions significantly, and that is whats important. I have mixed thoughts about BECCS, and I posted something on some other article recently. The best negative emissions systems appear to be tree planting and soil sequestration of carbon. Soil sequestration can certainly be scaled up in physical terms, its mainly a question of relatively simple changes to farming techniques, incentives and education. 

       Regarding the antarctic (the actual point  of the article) there are a lot of issues pointing at possibility of more rapid sea level rise than currently anticipated. I dont like the sheer number of possible problems when you combine the antarctic and greenland etc. This suggests use of the precautionary principle.

15548. One Planet Only Forever at 13:54 PM on 21 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       John Hartz@111,

       Thank you for the informative reference. It helps me better understand how 'competition to appear to be better off than others' developed desires/excuses for things that are understandably harmful to the future of humanity, Personal/Private Interests that are understandably unsustainable.

       A nit-pick with the author's Headline. The play on words with Comfortable/Uncomfortable is cute. But the study is not about 'comfort'. The study's concern is “Humanity faces the challenge of how to achieve a high quality of life for over 7 billion people without destabilizing critical planetary processes.” (the opening statement of the abstract for the report). Comfort may be a part of the life satisfaction goal that is in the study. But it is a term that is wide-open to interpretation. And even if it was more precisely defined, how significant it is could vary a lot among the population, even among the population of a single nation.

       The study is limited to evaluating measurements of what has developed in nations based on 2011 data. Admittedly, data is required for an analytical analysis. But the developed data pool is not the full spectrum of possible ways people can live. It is only the results of the current global domination of human activity by competitive materialism and consumerism. The result has been competition/fighting to develop perceptions of superiority relative to others any way that can be gotten away with, generally ruled by popularity, profitability or social/financial/warfare power. A different result would develop if helping to advance humanity to a sustainable better future was the understood measure of success and acceptability (a justified Golden Set of Rules/Goals globally understood and accepted by the majority of humans to increase the chances of a helpful result developing, such as the set of sustainability goals mentioned in the report).

       The required changes to have a better chance of a future for humanity will not be developed in the same socio-economic-political 'attitude environment'. In fact, the evidence is that deliberate actions in opposition to such changes are to be expected to be able to unjustifiably win in the existing developed system.

       A global change of understanding regarding what is acceptable will be required. Games of power, popularity and profitability with everyone freer to believe what they want and do as they please will not develop the required changes. In fact, the developed evidence measured in the study shows that people freer to believe what they want and do as they please in pursuit of Private Interest can be expected to develop less sustainable ways of living.

       A second nit-pick is in the following quote in the article (and repeated in your comment).

       "Unfortunately, the same is not true for other social goals that go beyond basic subsistence such as secondary education and high life satisfaction. Meeting these goals could require a level of resource use that is two to six times the sustainable level."

       The study Abstract states 'life satisfaction' as the example of goals that requires high resources. The following quote is from the Abstract: “However, the universal achievement of more qualitative goals (for example, high life satisfaction) would require a level of resource use that is 2–6 times the sustainable level, based on current relationships.”
       In the report the following is stated: “The social goals with the highest associated resource use, ranging from about two to six times the per capita biophysical boundary, are democratic quality, equality, social support, secondary education and life satisfaction.”

       It makes sense that those items are measured as 'highly achieved goals in high resource use nations'. But the correlation exists in the socio-economic-political 'attitude environment' that has developed. It is not a required correlation.

       They are the Winner Nations of the competition to gather as much benefit as possible in the games people play. The fact that there is serious poverty in many of the Biggest Winner Nations exposes that there are serious flaws in the ways things have developed, flaws in the play of, or enforcement of rules in, the games/competitions.

       Clearly, changing attitudes through global education can change the resulting development. But the real change has to occur among the perceived Winners. All of the most powerful, most popular, and wealthiest need to have their helpfulness/harmfulness evaluated, with penalties personally assessed accordingly.

       Things boil down to needing to correct the incorrectly developed perceptions of "Life Satisfaction" and correcting the incorrect admiration for Masters of Illusion/Deception, the undeserving winners.

       And everyone can understand that unsustainability is due to the total actions of the total population. So, although the total population is a concern, the developed over-consumption and highest harm creating ways of life of the 'Biggest Winners in the competition to be perceived to be superior to, or more successful than, others' can clearly be the real problem.

       Also, the problem is not 'Nations', it is people who play to Win any way they can get away with, including deliberately attacking increased awareness and better understanding that would expose the unacceptability of the way they play the game, exposing how harmful they have been. Those type of people can be Harmful Winners in any nation (rich or poor).

       The entire global population needs to be educated to admire and desire actions that help sustainably improve life for others (and sustainably means able to continue to be a help into the far future, only retired/replaced when a better sustainable way is developed). The converse is for the entire global population to understand the importance of no longer being impressed by anyone who tries to 'get ahead, Win a harmful Private Interest pursuit, in an unhelpful/deceptive/secretive way', no matter how powerful, popular, or rich they appear to regionally temporarily currently be.

15549. scaddenp at 13:35 PM on 21 February 2018
       2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
       

       Yes, activism by both sides can increase polarity but I think there needs to be distinction between right-wing activists and paid disinformers. Someone lying for money is not a moral actor.

       Agreed too that there is good data suggesting general public is less polarized than elites but elites act to lead opinion so it matters. Also data the importance of the middle ground. The civil rights movement didnt convince hard line racists (still hasnt), but it did influence more flexible thinkers who in turn influenced the next level down eventually creating a new norm.

15550. Riduna at 13:15 PM on 21 February 2018
       Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
       

       jef @ 3

       I think your criticism of BECCS and some of the other ‘schemes’ you have come across is quite right. You may be interested in my comment here.

       You sound very frustrated that their isn’t an instant cure to halt global warming. Well, there isn’t!  But there are ways of significantly reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, such as transitioning away from coal fired electricity generation (in progress) electrification of transport (in progress) and increasing the efficiency with which we use electricity (also in progress).

       I know they are not overnight cures but they are among several effective ways of reducing emissions. Over the coming decade you will see them beginning to work. We need to do more and I believe we will – because if we don’t?   Well, as they say, ‘nothing concentrates the mind so much as the prospect of being hanged’.

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