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MA Rodger at 20:59 PM on 15 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks @41.
The comment by Eclectic @30 you are referring to evidently concerned the greenhouse properties of SO2 (specifically in the stratosphere). Thus it would concern the lifetime of SO2 in the stratosphere alone. This stratospheric SO2 lifetime is significantly longer than the tropospheric SO2 lifetime, a few weeks rather than a few days. And, as set out up-thread by Eclectic @22 (which you apparently "did not find"), the aerosols resulting from stratospheric SO2 persist for much longer, many weeks, a few months or potentially a couple of years or so, this being dependent on the aerosol size, height and location. See for instance Kleinschmitt et al (2017).
In your citing (& your misquoting) of the OP, the OP noted that the geographical location of the volcanic eruption is a factor, the volcanoes discussed being "all located in the tropics close to the Equator, which allows the sulfur dioxide injected into the stratosphere to spread easily across the hemisphere." This is not the case for volcanoes further from the equator (eg. like the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption). -
RedBaron at 17:21 PM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
@GeoffThomas,
You said, "I realize that 365 billion kGs of carbon/year is not enough, although it is more than that in terms of carbon dioxide, - times 3.5+ but all those figures are conservative"
Actually they are at least an order of magnitude too small, assuming the technique is used to it's full potential. That's because the true value of biochar is in jump starting the liquid carbon pathway by providing a habitat for AMF to get started, and AMF to all the heavy lifting when it comes to carbon sequestration. I had place a link in my previous answer, can we reverse global warming, if you scroll down you will find the technical brief on how it works.
Technical Brief: The Liquid Carbon Pathway
You are just counting the biochar, but in reality, managed properly, it's the glomalin and humic polymers that end up making the vast bulk of the carbon in terre preta. The biochar is just the scaffolding for the living biology that pumps carbon in the soil at a rate of 5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr. Remember, all it takes is 8 tonnes CO2e /ha/yr if all the arable land in the world did this. (integrated in cases of crop and animal husbandry combined) So we are roughly talking about 1/2 the solution actually. (reducing fossil fuels use with solar wind and hydro being the other 1/2)
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nigelj at 12:15 PM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Geoff Thomas, thank's for the information on biochar.
I have to confess I didn't know anything much about it, and had to go a google and read a couple of articles, which totally support what you say. It appears to have a whole range of benefits, and more to the point adequately proven benefits. This alone suggests its an obvious thing to promote.
Its interersting and relevant because my country is hugely dependent on diary farming.
I'm a little bit interested in the use of carbon sinks in the wider sense to mop up emissions. I think Evan is right that storing carbon underground and geotech approaches have so many obvious problems, and can't be counted on. It's one thing to be optimistic about technology when progress is clearly being made and plausible, like battery technology, and another thing to have delusional faith in schemes that even commonsense should tell you are implausible or not cost effective.
But I think natural carbon sinks have some value, and biochar is part of this. I think its probably a case of promoting a combination of things from biochar, to tree planting, to better soil management as various other people talk about on this website.
I think its a case os 1) cutting emissions and 2) promoting natural carbon sinks. Carbon sinks wont do it alone, but will help mop up some emissions. I think its a slow process, but would deal with maybe the difficult aircraft emissions.
However while trees have the most mass storage potential some real problems are clear. For example all these forest fires lately are probably linked to climate change, and undermine this particular carbon sink, and theres evidence some forests are becoming net CO2 emitters, and theres limited land for growing trees. And demand for timber is huge.
In contrast farming and soil management is just a change of methodology, not requiring more land. So it may have more practical potential in the longer term.
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GeoffThomas at 11:15 AM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Evan @19, yes it is an interesting aspect, although I live in a cattle area and those farmers tend to be conservative. I am not giving up however.
Another mob doing research is Ithaka institute in Germany, http://www.ithaka-institut.org/en/ct/94-Cascading-use-of-biochar-in-animal-farming.
In the credits for the above u-tube is a Stephen Joseph, he is doing some amazing research on the more complex aspects of Biochar, -cat-ion exchange enabling etc, a researcher well worth watching.
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Evan at 05:09 AM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
GeoffThomas@18, thanks for your interesting post. I was not aware of this, and will certainly study this more. There are so many angles to climate change, and whether or not it is as easy as you suggest (feeding charcoal to cows to sequester carbon), it certainly is informative to see additional, creative contributions to the "silver buckshot" we need to get ahead of this problem.
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nigelj at 04:51 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @83
You claim 64% of America would be covered in wind turbines. I think you are simply mistaken. I think you probably read 64,000 something as 64% as we all do this sort of thing on occasion. 64% of America would not be covered in wind farms even commonsense should tell you this you would be talking billions of wind turbines.
The following article is from an industry expert. To completely power America with wind farms would take the area of Rhode Island, which is roughly in the ballpark area of under 1% in the Jacobsen study. Its certainly not 64%.
And it does depend somewhat on power of individual wind turbines and how densely spread the wind towers are to optimise things. Different people have different views on the ideal spacing,so estimates will all vary a bit, but not up to 64%.
The expert goes through his calculations in detail so its all there.
www.businessinsider.com.au/wind-turbines-to-power-earth-2016-9?r=US&IR=T
An excerpt:
"4.082 billion megawatt-hours (the average annual US electricity consumption) divided by 7,008 megawatt-hours of annual wind energy production per wind turbine equals approximately 583,000 onshore turbines.
In terms of land use, those 583,000 turbines would take up about the total land mass of Rhode Island, Hensley says, since wind projects typically require 0.74 acres of land per megawatt produced.
To make his calculation, Hensley considered that the average wind turbine has an output of 2 megawatts of power, and is 40% efficient. That means it can reach its full power-generating potential 40% of the time, since wind is not always blowing and farms sometimes shut down for routine maintenance. That percentage also accounts for electrical grid constraints — if an electrical grid receives more much power from a wind farm than it can handle, for example, managers will turn off a few turbines."
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NorrisM at 03:07 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Michael
I will be home in a couple of days and will reference the paper because I thought I had this right. It astounded me when I read it.
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liua at 01:47 AM on 15 October 2017Other planets are warming
Hi there. I found this claim very interesting and I was intrigued how this claim could support the idea that climate change in natural and not caused by anthropogenic factors. However, I think that it is crucial to taken into account the atmospheric conditions as well as the orbital eccentricity of each respective planet as these can vary greatly so we cannot use these planets as exact analogues for Earth to explain our temperatures.
Additionally, I have checked with the external references cited in the author’s piece. The original researchers have only created models in predicting a potential increase in temperature on Jupiter as a result of the whirlpool and sunspot activity on this planet. I also want to point out that although the luminosity of the planet’s may change, this is not proportional to the temperature of a planet or celestial object.
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michael sweet at 00:32 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Norris,
According to the supplemental information to the article you cite about 600,900 km2 of land is required to generate the power. The USA is about 9,000,000 km2. Your argument is based on a fabrication.,
You invariably choose the most extreme, or fabricated, data. A better choice is the middle of wait,area.
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GeoffThomas at 16:18 PM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Nigelj@2 Biochar has been suggested before but few on this list have taken it up, partly because it requires some info.
However, creating Biochar by feeding Cows, Charcoal, needs no explanation. According to a quick Google search there are 3.2+ Billion cows on our planet, and the demand for their meat will not stop any time soon, - in Australia, there are 28 Million, - outnumbering the people. If you feed a cow between 200 and 400 gms of charcoal per day, it becomes heathier, requires less feed, puts on more weight and is more placid, - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JPoItRWYSQ&feature=youtu.be
so 300 gms (a conservative average) times 3.2 Billion (+) per day, gets app. 1 kg per 3 cows, so app. 1 billion kgs per day, fed to them with their molasses, and then shat out as Biochar, enzymes and all, then buried by the ubiquitous dung beetle, there to enrich the soil and allow it to sequester more carbon in the process, - win,win.
I realize that 365 billion kGs of carbon/year is not enough, although it is more than that in terms of carbon dioxide, - times 3.5+ but all those figures are conservative, do not take into account all the other meat etc. animals that human beings have been blessed with, nor the sequestration possible with that carbon stimulating the soil, nor that taking charcoal for flatulence is well known to humans, so apparently the cows do not fart much methane, - don't know if it affects their burping..
Perhaps there could be a Charcoal tax rather than a carbon tax? - could be politically more acceptable. :)
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Evan at 11:58 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Eclectic@14. Thank you for your comments. My point in quoting Fox news was certainly not to suggest the tide has turned at Fox news, no pun intended. My point was to counter the misinformation of cjones1@10 that "sea levels have fallen." Apparently it is so obvious that they are riaing that not even Fox news suggests they are falling.
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Digby Scorgie at 11:22 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones1 @10
What made you think you could get away with your gish gallop of garbage at a website run by climate scientists and frequented by a large number of science-literate people?
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Evan at 10:49 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Eclectic@14. Thank you for your comments. My point in quoting Fox news was certainly not to suggest the tide has turned at Fox news, no pun intended. My point was to counter the misinformation of cjones1@10 that "sea levels have fallen." Apparently it is so obvious that they are riaing that not even Fox news suggests they are falling.
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Eclectic at 10:20 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Nigelj @11 , it is bold of you to oppose the ideas of Cojones1 (at post #10 ).
Think back 80 years of history, and you will see how the Gish Gallop of ideas of Cojones1 brought about some major changes in Europe especially. If I recall correctly, the well-known Allied soldiers' marching song also mentioned Cosmoswarrior1 as having something similar.
And thank you for your comments, RedBaron @12 . . . though it is distinctly ironic to see the RedBaron flying against the Central Powers of Cojones1 .
Evan @13 , it is certainly tempting to think "the tide has turned" at FoxNews, and that they will in future be reporting truthfully on Global Warming matters. But their track record is discouraging, in that regard.
Yes, a fine Gish Gallop of ideas @10 . . . indeed a bathtub full of them! But an overflowing bathtub seems to have failed to bring any Archimedean enlightenment to Cojones1 .
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nigelj at 09:56 AM on 14 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @80
I think you and Popper are largely wrong on this particular issue. In some cases drastic action simply is clearly needed. Take the obvious example of Samsung’s problem smartphones with the burning batteries, and they immediately took them off the market and had a product recall. They did not phase them down over a five year period. I can think of environmental problems that demanded a similar response, and others that suggest a more incremental response, so we are left with no option other than to look at each case on its merits, and evidence, and this includes climate change. And climate change requires a fairly rapid response now.
I totally disagree with your assertion that we have plenty of time. The Paris accord shows we certainly do not, so therefore any carbon price would need to be ramped up fairly promptly. Because of dithering, badly informed, self interested climate scepticism we are now backed into a corner where a fairly rapid response is required. However a $30 carbon price is ok if its ramped up fairly promptly.
I disagree with your claim that some NOAA study by finds wind power would cover 64% of the landmass of America. I think you have misinterpreted the study or mixed things up. NOAA are also not remotely involved in renewable energy they do atmospheric research.
The original Jacobsen study said about 0.3% of land area, a study by Clack and others claims 6% of land area, but this study is not gold plated, and has also been counter refuted by Jacobsen. But 64% just doesn’t make any sense, unless the turbines were many miles apart. In any event much wind power could be offshore if it bothers you that much.
I also disagree with your assertions that wind power is expensive. Again you have been shown many times costs are almost equal to coal and have never been able to refute this with any source material. You just make yourself sound disingenuous. The following is just one random example you should have been able to google in literally five seconds.
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wind-Energy-Now-Directly-Competing-With-Coal-On-Cost.html
It’s a foolish argument to say do nothing because technology will get better or cheaper. We would never do anything if we thought like that.You fail to consider the simple fact that nobody wants to build nuclear power, and it has only a slight cost advantage over wind, and this is likely to disappear in the near future anyway. However leave it to the market to decide.
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Evan at 09:29 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Fox news tends to down play the risks of global warming, ocean acidification, and climate change. However, here is a quote from Fox news.
"Rising sea levels caused by climate change is expected to exacerbate storm surge flooding."
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RedBaron at 08:52 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones @10
You got caught in the merchant of doubt minefield. I get it. They can be sneaky and have fooled many. But be sure that while yes indeed from time to time CO2 levels have been higher, it was certainly not a good thing. Actually it is associated with several mass extinctions.
The logic fallacy of the merchants of doubt fallacy goes a little like this: CO2 was higher in the past, and life thrived in the past, so current higher CO2 levels will make life thrive even more.
The problem is we also had many mass extinction events in the past too. And sure enough if we look closely at the fossil record, we find that the mass extinctions mostly happened either directly or indirectly from this high CO2 levels when they went on runaway feedbacks for various reasons.
The evidence is pretty clear actually, although still debated and not certain, it is pretty likely. Far more likely than runaway CO2 being a good thing.
Great Dying 252 million years ago coincided with CO2 build-up
Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction
and not only the permian extinction. It is actually a common theme in many mass extinction events.
Doubling Of CO2 Levels In End-Triassic Extinction Killed Off Three Quarters Of Land And Sea Species
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Daniel Mocsny at 08:25 AM on 14 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
Tom13@8:
#6 - the bumble bees range is quite large, as shown for the eastern common bumble bee. A global temp change of .5c over the last 50 or so years isnt going to make an iota of difference.
What is an "iota of difference"? A 5% reduction in the population of a species? A 1% reduction? 10%? A difference too small to measure? And how would you know how much impact a 0.5°C change in average temperature will cause without any attempt to measure it?
You seem to be saying a change in average temperature in a given location in a species' range has no effect other than to make that location exactly like some other location in the species' range at a different latitude or altitude. That is, you are making an unstated ceteris paribus assumption that you must justify.
Your assumption is shaky because a species depends on much more for its survival than just the average temperature at a location. A species also depends on the distributions and life cycles of many other species with overlapping ranges. Those other species adapt to climate change at different rates - some may relocate rapidly in response to a changing average temperature, while others may move only slowly. As a result, a rapid warming in a given location does not instantly transform that location into an exact duplicate of another location at a different latitude or altitude.
Many species lack the ability to store much food, so much of an ecosystem operates on a "just in time" basis. Disuptions to the familiar schedule may, for example, impact migrating birds that find themselves arriving before or after the insects they feed on to get the nutrition they need to lay eggs and raise their young.
With thousands of interdependent species having overlapping ranges all shifting at different rates in response to a rising average temperature, conditions at a given location will be in flux for many years. During that time, some combination of changing factors may turn out to be hostile to a given species, which lacks the ability to ride out the storm. By analogy, if the spot where you are standing is under a flood, your ability to breathe right now isn't helped by knowing the flood will abate in a few days.
Impacts on one species can cascade through an ecosystem, affecting other species that depend on that species. These cascading effects take time and introduce a response lag to a given disruption. (For example, as pine beetles benefit from warmer winters, they need some years to build up their numbers and wipe out forests.) Thus even if the impact of a given warming over the past 50 years on a given species may not be visible now, the impact may not have yet fully played out. By analogy, consider a young adult tobacco smoker who appears to be in good health, or a professional gridiron football player who appears neurologically normal. Unseen damage is accumulating from their respective chemical and head trauma insults. It may manifest more visibly in 20 or 30 years. If physicians could only study young smokers and football players, they might not guess what's in store for many of them.
Global average temperature has hardly stopped rising. The temperature rise over the past 50 years is but a tiny fraction (perhaps a fifth to a tenth) of what the next century will see, barring drastic action to halt human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Humans remain solidly on pace to heat the Earth to levels Earth has not seen in millions of years, by restoring atmospheric carbon dioxide to levels Earth last saw millions of years ago.
The roughly 5°C rise in average global temperature between the previous glacial maximum and the year 1750 was also less than the daily and seasonal temperature variation at many locations on Earth. But that seemingly small global average temperature change melted at least a vertical kilometer of ice from what is now Chicago. If we've already caused a temperature change equal to 10% of that post-Ice Age temperature change in just the past 50 years, how could it not be having, and be yet to have, impacts?
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nigelj at 07:12 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones @10
I disagree completely, and you cite no sources of research information, so have no credibility.
"CO2 levels were higher throughout most o of Earth's history."
Just a false empty assertion with no evidence provided, plus bad spelling. CO2 levels are currently considerably higher than at least the last 800,000 years as below.
www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938
"Temperatures have been higher in the past as well and life thrived. CO2 levels of 1000 ppm are ideal for greenhouses and agriculture has benefited from increasing CO2 levels."
The sort of life that thrived in higher temperatures was not necessarily the ideal sort of life actually. The temperatures we are heading towards are not good for crop production ultimately, and for human survival, and the rapid rates of change are greater than historically, and thus present particular problems with adaptation for all species. Higher temperatures also mean sea level rise and more intense storms. This is all covered in the last IPCC report, which is available online and easily googled.
And humans dont live in glass greenhouses.
"According to NASA sea levels have fallen...."
For about two years, which is normal short term fluctuation due to natural variability, just as they have fallen for short periods like this scattered through the last 100 years, then increased again on each occasion after a couple of years in a pattern over time. The dominant trend over the last 100 years is rising sea levels easly seen if you google the jason topex satellite sea level rise data.
"Too many natural factors such as solar sunspot cycles, orbital cycles, climatic oscillations,"
Blah, blah, blah the denialist does his best to spread confusion and doubt straight form the corporate lobbying play book. All these elements have been researched in hundreds of research papers, and do not explain recent warming. Try reading this website starting with the list of "most used climate myths"
I dont think the moderator is going to be happy with you somehow.
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cjones1 at 06:36 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
CO2 levels were higher throughout most o of Earth's history. Temperatures have been higher in the past as well and life thrived. CO2 levels of 1000 ppm are ideal for greenhouses and agriculture has benefited from increasing CO2 levels. I saw a presentation where none of the CO2 models accurately predicted temperature as the CO2 levels have risen. NASA just admitted that sea levels have fallen. Too many natural factors such as solar sunspot cycles, orbital cycles, climatic oscillations, accrurately understanding the carbon cycle, and historical climate change has been left out in the AGW proponents rush to solely tie CO2 levels temperature fluctuations.
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nigelj at 05:17 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @37
You appear to remain doubtful about the precise effect of C02 on temperature (your maths model thing) . It has already been explained that no experiment in a jar can achieve this accurately or even moderately accurately, because it cannot duplicate the atmosphere. Nobody has to prove Wards experiment wrong with another experiment, given his basic assumptions are wrong.
You need to read the research done on inferring the maths of the effect of CO2 on temperature starting with Arrhenius and Hulbert and moving on from there to more modern work. You then need to prove them wrong through normal scientific channels, if you feel you see fault in their work. Just ignoring what they say, and expressing a preference for some other approach in a jar, is just the talk of a naive layperson. Their results are reasonably accurate, enough to be useful.
The best test of a theory such as quantification of effects of CO2 is predictive ability. Look at the graphs of climate models in the article "How well have climate models predicted global warming" on this website a couple of days ago. The models have done reasonably well. They would not be able to do this is the basic "maths model" of CO2 was wildly innacurate. End of story.
What's more we know the reason these models are not as yet perfect is because of the difficulties of dealing with natural variation and warming feedback effects, not doubt about the basic maths model of how a molecule of CO2 affects temperature. So all Im saying is step back and take a wider view of everything and it becomes clearer.
Dont waste time over SO2. Ample evidence has been shown that its a weak greenhouse gas, and quantities in the atmosphere are vastly less than CO2. Therefore further discussion on detailed aspects is irrelevant to climate change and this website, and leads me to conclude you are deliberately muddying the waters.
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NorrisM at 03:49 AM on 14 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw
What I would like you to respond to is my point that we should not rush into solutions which are extreme from a standpoint of costs when we find that the solutions proposed today are not very appealing from an aesthetic standpoint. So let us use gradualism. This is the Karl Popper thought that is based upon common sense. Take some reasonable steps now and see how it goes. Leaving aside issues of CH4 permafrost, we are not heading over a cliff.
In response to nigelj's comment agreeing that in some cases Popper's view makes sense but not in cases "where it so clear as to the imminent danger" , I would suggest that Popper's response would be that everyone says that their situation is absolutely clear and drastic action should be taken. Extremism is one of the biggest problems we face today and I worry that proposals for massive changes to respond to climate change would fit into this category.
Let me give one "what if" that I can think of. Assume that Trump gets kicked out of office, a Democrat wins the presidency and the Democrats magically take over control of both houses. They immediately respond with a massive program of changing the US power grid to the existing technology for wind turbines (and or solar PV) and the rest of the world goes along (along with FF/hydro as backup). I am not through reading the IPCC report on costs so let us just stick with wind turbines (because solar PV seems far off from the various models).
So now in the US we have wind turbines over ballpark 64% of the land mass of the US (see NOAA study June 2017 responding to Jacobson study). Then, either the new wind turbine technology or some new technology is found that means that 75% or more of the wind turbines are not needed. But the costs of dismantling these wind turbines does not justify their removal. So they just sit there unused because they are uneconomic.
What have we done to our world?
Is technology going to find better solutions? I would bet that is the case and it is only a question of when.
So we have defaced our world for nothing. If we start with a $30 carbon tax that lays a cost on FF for pollution then we will encourage new technological solutions to replace FF.
Everytime I see a list of the "bad things" that will happen to our planet, I sit back and think: "take a deep breath". We have decades of time within which to deal with this problem. Let us not rush "pel mel" (sp) into something that we will come to regret. A move to nuclear power would not create these kind of problems in my personal view.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Eclectic at 01:56 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @41 ,
the article (above) by Lehner & Fasullo is not a complete description of every aspect of climate science — and thus it is necessary for you to "add to it" with knowledge of other aspects [if not from your own prior scientific knowledge, then from your further reading from other threads & other sources].
As mentioned earlier, the NASA website can give you information. In this case, NASA describes the relatively rapid reaction of SO2 with atmospheric H2O, to alter the radiative & reflective properties associated with the volcanic-origin sulfur.
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aleks at 01:43 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Eclectic@30
"As mentioned above in this thread, volcanic SO2 in the stratosphere has a very short life". I did not find any mention about short life of SO2 both in the discussed article and comments. Conversely, the authors of this article say that "sulfur dioxide injected into the stratosphere spreads easily along the hemisphere". So, when you told about short life of SO2, what do you mean: formation of aerosols with water (depends on ratio SO2/H2O and temperature), oxidation or reduction (by what agents?), or photochemical destruction by UV-radiation?
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Eclectic at 01:42 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @37 ,
why do you say it would be "impossible" to speak about the ideas put forward by a person (such as Mr Ward) who is not engaging in the discussion here? We are able to discuss the ideas of Newton and Einstein, despite the absence of those two gentlemen. Likewise, we are able to discuss (and disparage) the ideas put forward by members of the Flat Earth Society, despite the absence of those members.
The Flat-Earthers put forward many ideas to support their Flat Earth hypothesis — and their many ideas are garbage. Crazy unscientific garbage. Completely unreliable!
It is a waste of your (and everyone's) time to go into a detailed discussion of the Flat-Earther crazy ideas. Likewise it is a waste of time going into a detailed discussion of the many points of unmitigated garbage put forward by P.L.Ward .
Aleks, for your sake I beg of you — don't waste your valuable time on P.L.Ward . Much better instead, for you to educate yourself with genuine scientific knowledge.
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MA Rodger at 01:05 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
The OP does appear to take for ganted that there is a good chance of an La Nina developing in the next few months and also that Mount Agung is soon to erupt. I would suggest there is some significant doubt on both assumptions.
Concerning the La Nina, this is a long way from a certain outcome, even a weak La Nina. The predictions (eg here) have been remarkably changeable over the last couple of months with an El Nino being predicited as much more likely as recently as July. And even as recent as September the continued ENSO Neutral condition was predicted as the most likely outcome over the winter.
Also the seismic activity generated by Mount Agung is being taken as the sign of a forthcoming major eruption. Yet (and this a hostage to fortune - a major eruption is entirely possible), the BBC report the following in their Mount Agung story:-
"According to the volcanologists monitoring Mount Agung, this situation could continue for weeks, maybe even months. An eruption may not even happen, they simply don't know. At the government observation base, senior seismologist Devy Kamil remains patient - despite the long queue of journalists who have been knocking on his door all week, hoping for some news. "There are some examples where you have swarms of activity for as long as six years," he explains, "and it is not always ended by an eruption."
So an eruption is not guaranteed and the seismic activity may last years. (The further point is made elsewhere that today's instrumentation was not available back in 1963 so comparisons with that eruption are not possible.)
And the idea that any new eruption will be a repeat of 1963 is not supported by the historical evidence. The eruption previous to 1963 was 1843 and that does not apper to feature in the volcanic ejection record in polar ice cores (eg Jiang et al 2012) (although Osipov et al (2014) show no 1836 Cosigüina eruption but instead an eruption dated to 1840 and labelled 'unknown' - this indicative of the reliability of the dating of ice core data).
Certainly nothing giving such a mark as the 1963 eruption appears on the appropriate portion of the 19th century ice core record.
Indeed, there is little enough information about Mt Agung prior to 1963. Zen & Hadikusumo (1964) set out the reports from 1843 thus:-" «After having been dormant for a long time, this year the mountain began to be alive again. In the first days of the activity earthquake shocks were felt after which followed the emission of ash, sand and stones.» These are the only words which described the eruption of 1843. "
And prior to 1843, the record of Mt Agung eruptions is entirely sparce. There is mention of the first recorded eruption being a 1808 eruption that dragged on to 1821, or mention elsewhere that 1821 was a seperate eruption. Today the standard press quotes seems to be a repeat of a 20th Sept UPI item "There was an eruption of similar intensity in 1843, and several in the 16th to 18th centuries," a quote that beyond 1843 is not based on evidence, or none that I can see.
So we may or may not have a weak La Nina in the offing. And we may or may not have Mt Agung erupt and if it does it may or may not be as climatically significant as 1963.
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MA Rodger at 00:38 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks @35.
When you say "the consensus in this problem is impossible now," I will assume you are saying that you remain unconvinced by any of the scientific evidence. This may be your personal position but it is not a scientific one.
However, there is one loose end in all this. You stated @18 "SO2 absorbs IR-radiation in the region 3.5-19 micron." The basis for your statement remains unclear. I will assume it would not lie within the chemistry text book you cite (although the reasons for your citation are not entirely clear). And there is no sign of a "region 3.5-19 micron" in the Google Image Search page you linked to up-thread.
Up-thread there are graphs of the SO2 IR absorption spectrum. More precisely the SO2 absorption peaks could be described as spanning 4μm to 18μm. Or the absorbtion bands could be described as spanning 3.9μm to 20μm. (I note the graph @34 shows a 200μm absorption peak which perhaps has more chance of interferring with a radio than interferring with climate.) But I am unable to make sense of describing the range 3.5μm to 19μm.
So can you set out the basis for your statement "SO2 absorbs IR-radiation in the region 3.5-19 micron" ?
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RedBaron at 00:20 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Tunnelly,
You said, "I also like the implicit recognizitonthat the only significant engineering problem left is the development of effective carbon removal technology"
Actually that part of it is done. We can do it and it is feasible and mature technology and the case studies have been done to prove it feasible at scale in the field. Not only feasible but actually highly profitable.
The problem has nothing to do with technology but rather the many billions of dollars being spent to prevent it from being implemented.
Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised
Farming a climate change solution
"If all farmland was a net sink rather than a net source for CO2, atmospheric CO2 levels would fall at the same time as farm productivity and watershed function improved. This would solve the vast majority of our food production, environmental and human health ‘problems’." Dr. Christine Jones
I wrote several whole essays about it both here and at quora. One of them was recently picked up by RedPlanet and published.
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aleks at 00:06 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Eclectic @28
I did not know before about Mr.Ward scientific activity. But in any case it seems to me impossible to speak bad about the person who does not take part in our discussion. I was not sure about the reliability P.L.Ward's data because the cited article did not contain a detailed description of the experiment and estimation of the data precision. Nevertheless, the experiment can be refuted only by other experiment. So, I will be very grateful for link containing description of such or similar experiment.
Moderator Response:[DB] "the experiment can be refuted only by other experiment"
An opinion piece like Ward's is not a peer-reviewed piece published in a credible scientific journal, thus it needs no scientific refutation via published research study. The existing research stands unchallenged by such.
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Tunnelly at 21:59 PM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Excellent reduction of the challenges to gobal efforts to effect gobal climate change: "problem(s) of communication and trust in the scientific community" & "problem(s) of willpower."
I also like the implicit recognizitonthat the only significant engineering problem left is the development of effective carbon removal technology by omitting any debate re: the feasability/reliablity of low-carbon energy systems.
Becuase of the uncertainty and ethical dilemma of "betting" on future development of direct atmospheric carbon removal technology, I would be interested in seeing more information on the potential impact of forest conservation a la the UN-REDD program to "reduce forest emissions and enhance carbon stocks from forests while contributing to national sustainable development."
http://www.unredd.net/index.php?option=com_docman&view=document&alias=14096-un-redd-pb14-2015-strategic-framework&category_slug=session-3-strategic-and-policy-issues&Itemid=134
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Digby Scorgie at 12:51 PM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Never mind, Evan. As a retired technical writer, I know just how difficult it is to rid even the simplest document of all typos and silly mistakes.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:55 AM on 13 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks:
I don't know where you are getting your information, but it is way, way out of date. The myth that "volcanoes eruptions could be an important cause of ozone layer depletion" was doing the rounds over 20 years ago. Before the World Wide Web was popular, there was Usenet and news groups. The FAQ on ozone myths was produced way back then.
http://faqs.cs.uu.nl/na-dir/ozone-depletion/idx.html
Look at part II. It's 20 years old (last update), but the debunking of your myth is probably older than some of the people reading this web site.
Please try to catch up.
Moderator Response:[PS] watch tone please.
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Evan at 10:43 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
I just noticed the other embarassing mistake. "When is it too late the hit the brakes" should be "When is it too late to hit the brakes"
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Evan at 10:37 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Thank you Digby for your correction. And to think I once called myself an editor.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:31 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
In the cartoon, it should be "never too late".
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cjones1 at 08:01 AM on 13 October 2017DeConto et al: Thawing permafrost drove the PETM extreme heat event
As far as I know, there was no permafrost in the Arctic or Antarctic during the Eocene. The Antarctic did not freeze over until around 34-35 mya and the Artctic until about 3 mya.
Moderator Response:[PS] Please read the article (and paper). Lack of ice in Antarctica is key. You dont need ice-covered poles to have permafrost.
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Evan at 07:22 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
If we look backwards as it has been suggested by ubrew12@1 that Lamar Smith is apparently doing, we still see the climate warming at a measured rate of 2C/100 years (see Analogy 4). Thus, projecting forward with a linear view derived from the past still spells trouble.
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nigelj at 06:31 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Very well written and hard to fault, with foolproof, convincing, informative analogies.
Lamar smith saying its arrogant to make a prediction does indeed show lack of self awareness that we make predictions all the time anyway. In fact various studies in economics show humans make decisions on virtually everything by mentally weighing probabilities of various events happening in the future. Science simply informs us on whats most likely to happen in the future in a rigourous way, better than gut feel etc or assuming things will continue as in the past. I would say its extremely arrogant of Lamar Smith to ignore science.
We can extract some of the water in the bathtub a little with man made carbon sinks. The paris accord requires 'net' zero emissions by 2050 so allowes for carbon offsets like this. Both tree planting and soil sequestration of carbon through better farming systems have potential as offsets from the IPCC reports.
However there are some big challenges. Both are somewhat slow processes to implement in a practical, educational and political sense, and time is not on our side, so the primary goal has to be to reduce emissions at source, with strengthened carbon sinks to help mop up some emissions.
Tree planting is problematic, because suitable land is limited, and the quantity of trees needed to make a huge difference is vast when you do the maths. The temptation to fell the trees prematurely is going to be huge.
I see the most plausible thing as rigourous development of carbon sinks of various types could potentially offset some of the difficult to reduce emissions like aviation emissions, and perhaps some inductrial emissions but thats about all. Still that would help solve a difficult problem.
Of course over more extended time frames man made carbon sinks may also help draw down excess CO2 in the atmosphere.
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nigelj at 05:23 AM on 13 October 2017Despite Trump, American companies are still investing in renewable energy
Tom13 @3
"Nigelj - Can you provide any insight as to why the survey would be an accurate representation of the plans of the general business community."
I never claimed the Apex survey did. Please actually read what people say. I said "the survey is unlikely to be representative of America as whole" In other words I basically agree it samples companies dedicated to renewable energy, and this may not reflect business as a whole in America. But then again it may be representative, because we dont have enough knowledge about what all companies think or dont think or whether the ones in the survey were all that particularly special.
You have made your point, no need for you to repeat it over and over.
Anyway its only one study. The wider point is I showed you a list of other surveys and assessments that show a large proportion of companies with considerable interest in renewable energy. Surely this is the main point? If you can't register this simple thing it becomes frustrating.
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william5331 at 05:19 AM on 13 October 2017Despite Trump, American companies are still investing in renewable energy
A sure sign that renewable energy simply makes good economic sense. Flavor that with a concern with the environment and possible cocking a snook at Trump and there is enough motivation that we will be able to look back on the Trump years as some of the best in the uptake of renewable energy.
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Tom13 at 04:53 AM on 13 October 2017Despite Trump, American companies are still investing in renewable energy
#4 - Andy
Page 15 of the pdf (link in the lst sentence of the 3rd paragraph) provides the actual methodology -
An email link invited the panel’s 3,486 members to participate anonymously in the survey. We analyzed the results from 350 respondents in nearly 18 industries. These sub-industries were categorized into 10 primary industries. The “other” industry category included recipients from agriculture, hospitality, transportation and other undefined industries.
The overall response rate was 10 percent. About 67 percent of these respondents are based in the United States. Forty-four percent of respondents are from organizations with revenues greater than $250 million.
Note the panel consists of members of the "GreenBiz intelligence Panel"
Hope that helps.
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AndyT at 04:40 AM on 13 October 2017Despite Trump, American companies are still investing in renewable energy
Please check the statement: "The groups surveyed 153 major corporations (both public and private), whose combined revenue was in excess of $250 million." Some individual organizations have revenues greater than $250 million so the combined total must be larger.
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Tom13 at 03:42 AM on 13 October 2017Despite Trump, American companies are still investing in renewable energy
To summarize the The email requesting was sent to the members of "GreenBiz Intelligence Panel" a group which is group that is already predisposed to renewable/green energy. Only 10% responded - In other words, the initial group is limited to a predisposed sample group with only a 10% response rate - My basis for the assetion I made is directly from the facts describing the methodolgy as detailed in the previously cited paragraphs. Those facts are highlighted on page 15 of the pdf of the survey report.
Nigelj - Can you provide any insight as to why the survey would be an accurate representation of the plans of the general business community.
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ubrew12 at 03:21 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Excellent discussion of 'climate accounting 101'. Regarding your example of when to hit the brakes as we approach a cliff whose bridge is out: Rep. Lamar Smith has said its arrogant to predict what the climate will be in a century. That's like claiming its arrogant to say that the bridge is out based on your looking forward. Why does Smith not think its out? Because he's looking backward, and you've been driving over flat country for as far back as the eye can see. He therefore assumes flat country is ahead of you. It's important to tell the 'Smith's of this world that just because he thinks its arrogant to make a prediction of the future status of the road based on looking at it, it doesn't mean he hasn't made a prediction. He may just not be aware that he has made one. Without quite realizing it, he thinks the future will be flat as a pancake, because the past has been, and that is a prediction. As it happens, a more arrogant prediction than looking forward and telling folks what you see ahead of us.
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aleks at 02:05 AM on 13 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Our discussion turned out of topic of the article: effect of volcanoes eruptions on the environment. We speak about the physical essence of greenhouse effect theory, and evidently the consensus in this problem is impossible now.
However, other aspect of this topic is also important. Sulfur dioxide forms aerosols with water, and these aerosols eventually fall into sea, lakes, rivers. In this case, water pH depends on oxidation state of sulfur: strong acid H2SO4 is more dangerous than weak H2SO3. That's why is inreresting what oxidizing agent could convert SO2 to SO3. If SO2 during eruption reaches ozone layer in the stratosphere (O3 oxidizes SO2 to SO3), then volcanoes eruptions could be an important cause of ozone layer depletion. It seems, this problem also deserves attention.
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Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
According to Spectralcalc.com (the Line List Browser & Atmosphere Browser) CO2 is a much stronger GHG than SO2 but most important, it's at least 1 million times more abundant in the atmosphere, so I think it's safe to say that SO2 as a GHG can be ignored here on Earth.
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BaerbelW at 20:41 PM on 12 October 2017Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
A new Kickstarter project by illustrator Megan Herbert and climate scientist Michael E. Mann started on Oct. 11. They are looking for pledges to publish a kids' book about climate change called "The tantrum that saved the world". As of right now, they have pledges for $6,400+ out of the $20,000 they are looking. The crowdfunding runs until November 11.
You can check it out here.
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Eclectic at 17:49 PM on 12 October 2017Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
Thank you, Dr Hausfather, for the summary on climate model projections (of past & present).
"The models are much hotter than reality" is an enduring part of the Denialist faith. An idee fixe, quite impervious to the evidence of the last 3 or 4 years of record-breakingly hot global surface temperatures. And quite impervious to the concept of underlying physical causations of fluctuations in observations (or indeed, of causations of AGW).
By chance, I came across the mention of an upcoming "Climate" book — the title escapes me, but the Editor is J. Marohasy [the Marohasy of zero credibility] and there are a score or so of chapters written as individual contributions, each by a different Denialist. By the Usual Suspects, of course. And including the late Bob Carter.
However, among the Usual Suspects, one name stood out like a petunia in an onion patch — the journalist / poet / commentator Clive James [currently age 78 and in very poor health]. I had often enjoyed his informed & witty literary comments in his radio programs [discussions with poet the late Peter Porter] but I had never heard anything from him regarding scientific topics. So, being curious, I chased down the newspaper article/essay (that he had composed in Dec2016 - Feb2017 or thereabouts) which was said to be his chapter in the upcoming "Climate" book.
Result : the contents were a Denialist's usual mishmash of garbage. "The climate models are wrong" was one of James's most prominent assertions — but he also threw in quite a number of other pieces of nonsense (too tiresome to relate the list: and I am sure readers of SkS can guess most of it!). I particularly like Clive James's assertion that sea levels have hardly budged a millimeter since the 1950's.
Altogether, his essay bristled with Strawman arguments, fake information, false analogies, and gross failure of logic.
Sad to see a first-rate literary mind displaying a fourth-rate understanding of science & logic. I would like to put the blame on the infirmities of age & illness — but the same degree of mental incapacity is seen in Denialists who are middle-aged and presumably fairly healthy. Perhaps a deep current of underlying anger is the common factor in the personalities of science-deniers.
There might have been, at a superficial glance taken 5 or 10 years ago, some sort of justification for making a tentative suggestion that "models" had a tendency to "run too hot". But that suggestion can no longer be made, in view of the overall conditions of the last 30+ years.
But I think few Denialists can face the truth, and they will take their concept of "incompetent models" with them to the grave — of course, since the models are incompetent, it simply must follow that the Earth cannot be warming & the ice cannot be melting & the sea level cannot be rising. QED
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nigelj at 11:19 AM on 12 October 2017Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
David Collier, good thoughts, except welfarism is just a tax payer funded insurance scheme against risks of various types. We insure against all sorts of risks.
Regarding free thinking, its challenging because material prosperity requires both specialisation, discipline, conformity, regementation, obedience, BUT also free thinking and innovation. We need both conformists and innovators. The smartest country will grasp you need both, and balance them really well. To some extent America has done this quite well but seems to have lost its way, but we are also having a big debate on the issues as well.
And everyone needs better analytical and logic skills so to see through junk science and silly beliefs.
Theres no reason schools cant equally teach rote learning and discipline, plus analytical and free thinking. They arent mutually exclusive. We can all do both, if we are disciplined about it, right time right place. You start with acknowldging both are equally important.
Moderator Response:[PS] No more offtopic comments or followup here please. If you want to reply to an obviously offtopic comment, do so in a more appropriate place and then post a link to that comment here with "i have responded here". In general, Thinkprogress is probably a better place for such discussions.
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nigelj at 11:08 AM on 12 October 2017Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
Wol, I dont think predicting future climate would be the most complex problem in science. The most complex would be long term economic predictions, mainly because of the human factor, and perhaps also working out some of the remaining physics mysteries as below:
www.sciencenews.org/blog/context/top-10-scientific-mysteries-21st-century
I do think climate is very complex because you cannot put the planet inside a laboratory and perform nice tidy little experiments, so things are inferred from a range of related evidence, that gets as close as possible to an ideal experiment. I think climate scientists have done rather well.
And of course the range of factors in climate adds complexity, but at least they can be quantified and and put into equations, try doing that with human behaviour!
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