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aleks at 08:50 AM on 17 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Eclectic @46
I fully agree with you on the issue of sulfite aerosols formation "at warm troposphere conditions", but I'm not sure that it applies to stratosphere: reaction may be fully stopped because of liquid water absence at low temperatures.
I see also that you mark ozone participation in the processes associated with SO2 in the stratosphere. I would just like to clarify: ozone is not an accelerator of a process, it directly reacts with SO2 forming SO3.
Rob Honeycutt@47
We discuss not about long-lived and short-lived gases in all, but the behavior of the gaseous SO2 ejected by a volcano to the height 16-18 km. Because of absence OH-radicals catalyzing SO2 oxidation by O2 in these conditions, the reaction of stratospheric ozone with SO2 is much more probable than with CFCs.
MA Rodger@48
When it comes to chemical problems (in this case SO2 oxidation), it's indispensable without the knowledge of chemistry. Sorry for "chemical theorising". The drop of SO2 levels is a fact, but it does not mean that oxidation of SO2 by oxygen is a reason for it. We may think about SO2 oxidation by ozone or just about lowering relatively heavy molecules of SO2 from the stratosphere to the troposphere where they react with water/
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:18 AM on 17 October 2017Trump’s plan to bail out failing fossil fuels with taxpayer subsidies is perverse
The debates about taxes and subsidies in this string, and in general, commonly spin endlessly because they miss a major consideration ... the Objective! CBDunkerson@8 opened with that key point.
"... subsidies and other government funding are a good idea when they promote a public good."
What I would add is the criteria for determining the 'public good'. The term 'public good' is used a lot but seems to be very open to interpretation.
I consider the Sustainable Development Goals published in 2015 by the UN to be the best compilation of criteria for the 'public good'. It is a very detailed and robustly based set of criteria that are open to improvement 'if a Good Reason for the improvement with a Solid Basis' is developed/presented.
Using that Objective Reality as the basis for determining the Public Good, rather than leaving the term open to everyones' subjective reality (personal interest) potentially contradictory to the objective reality (public interest), it becomes very apparant that the Trump Administration and many other 'supposed leaders/winners in the USA and elsewhere' are up to No Good because they can get away with benefiting from that understandably less acceptable behaviour.
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NorrisM at 00:10 AM on 17 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw, nigelj and michael sweet
I have just returned home and do not have the time to get into a very interesting discussion relating to SCC. I have now at least read the full IPCC Chapter 10 on Mitigation and Costs which was very instructive.
What I do want to correct is my 64% statement which was made based upon what I thought I had read in the Clack June 2017 paper commenting on the deficiencies of the Jacobson study. My eyes are getting bad because he uses 6% of the continental US not 64% (I actually thought it was 64% not even 60%). I am completely off the mark on this and felt I should correct it with a specific comment. I thought I was backing up my comments with facts but I at least did make reference to the Clack study, just had it wrong so at least it was "falsifiable".
eclectic.
Just now saw your reply to my post on the michael sweet article on the Jacobson study. Thanks for the reply. Comments duly noted.
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MA Rodger at 16:50 PM on 16 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
It should also be pointed out that satellite measurements of stratospheric SO2 directly and conclusively demonstrate the drop in SO2 levels following the volcanic inputs. The literature is unequivocal (for instance - Carn et al (2009), Pumphrey et al 2015). The chemical theorising of aleks is uncalled for and flat wrong.
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Eclectic at 12:09 PM on 16 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Wol @25 , just a thought from me :
In actual practice at SkS, you will find that serious/intelligent "sceptical" debate is encouraged. That said, there is in fact very little serious/intelligent "sceptical debate" to be found anywhere let alone in the columns of SkS ! Sure — unintelligent and/or non-serious [ = trolling ] debate abounds . . . and deserves to be snipped [here].
The self-called "skeptics" have such a low level of truthfulness, that they would (and do) bad-mouth SkS at every opportunity. Nothing whatsoever would be improved by giving them a free rein here at SkS. Quite the contrary, indeed !! SkepticalScience would be overrun & trashed by posts oozing malice & idiocy. (Just observe the current fate of most public website comments columns that lack proper moderation monitoring! )
Wol, you are far too kind-hearted. I respectfully counsel you to ignore the delicate sensibilities of denialists/"skeptics". Denialists won't be convinced by anything, to change their minds to a sane realistic attitude to AGW.
The only moderation plea I have is for Moderator comments to be kept in the traditional "green boxes" where they are easy to see, and are not half-buried in the text of regular posts.
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:47 AM on 16 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
alecks... Straight from the IPCC (AR4):
Long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs), for example, CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), are chemically stable and persist in the atmosphere over time scales of a decade to centuries or longer, so that their emission has a long-term influence on climate. Because these gases are long lived, they become well mixed throughout the atmosphere much faster than they are removed and their global concentrations can be accurately estimated from data at a few locations. Carbon dioxide does not have a specific lifetime because it is continuously cycled between the atmosphere, oceans and land biosphere and its net removal from the atmosphere involves a range of processes with different time scales.
Short-lived gases (e.g., sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide) are chemically reactive and generally removed by natural oxidation processes in the atmosphere, by removal at the surface or by washout in precipitation; their concentrations are hence highly variable. Ozone is a significant greenhouse gas that is formed and destroyed by chemical reactions involving other species in the atmosphere. In the troposphere, the human influence on ozone occurs primarily through changes in precursor gases that lead to its formation, whereas in the stratosphere, the human influence has been primarily through changes in ozone removal rates caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances.
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Eclectic at 11:14 AM on 16 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @45 , as you rightly say: the conversion of [infra-red] "absorbent" gasseous SO2 into [visible-light] reflectant sulfate aerosols is a somewhat complex process — the process rate is important, and is accelerated by ozone and H2O.
D.J.Eatough et al., 1994 , states conversion rates of 1% - 10% per hour in warm tropospheric conditions : such rates implying a stratospheric rate being up to about 100 times slower — which rate fits well with the description you will find on the NASA website.
Observations by NASA, NOAA, JMA and other meteorological organizations, all indicate that volcanic eruptions (sufficient to reach the stratosphere) cause global cooling for a year or two. And this is the evidence that demonstrates the relative [lack of] importance of duration & effect of gasseous SO2.
That being so, I do not see the point you are trying to lead to. Please explain yourself more clearly.
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Wol at 09:58 AM on 16 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
https://skepticalscience.com/comments_policy.shtml>>Moderator Response:
[JH] Blatant sloganeering sipped.Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter. <<
Moderator: I respectfully can't agree that the sort of posts to which you append this standard reply are not helpful: if the poster reads replies from scientifically literate people surely there is a chance that he might be educated?
In addition, looking back over the months, this "standard" reply does allow the deniers to claim that all sceptical (in their terms) debate is quashed.
Just a thought.
Moderator Response:[JH] We will continue to moderate comments posted on this website in accordance with our standard practices. If a comment is not in compliance with the SkS Comments Policy it will be appropriately dealt with.
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Wol at 09:38 AM on 16 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
ubrew12:
>>Without quite realizing it, he thinks the future will be flat as a pancake, because the past has been, and that is a prediction. As it happens, a more arrogant prediction than looking forward and telling folks what you see ahead of us.<<
An excellent analogy/example and one I hadn't thought of.
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aleks at 09:01 AM on 16 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Comments about SO2
SO2 converts in the stratosphere to sulfuric acid aerosols (Eclectic@22, nigelj@31). For this process is necessary: a) mole concentration of H2O should be not less than of SO2, b) SO2 must be oxidized to SO3. Reliable data about H2O/SO2 ratio are unknown. Because of low temperatures in upper troposphere and stratosphere water converts to ice so aerosols of sulfurous acid will form in “lower atmosphere” (Eclectic@30). Oxidation of SO2 to SO3 in not an easy process: in chemical technology it requires high temperatures and special catalyst, in the atmosphere it catalyzed by hydroxyl radicals (J.J.Margitan. J.Phys. Chem., 88, 3914 (1984) ). http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/j150659a035
So, I can't agree that “ SO2 in its gaseous form is short lived” (Kevin C @25). These facts are also important for estimation of possible effect of SO2 on ozone layer: Bob Loblaw @36 refutes it. The ozone is only one available oxidizing agent in the stratosphere that can oxidize SO2 without catalyst, and SO2 during eruption emitted close enough to ozone layer. Additionally, please pay attention to the lower graph in HK@34 post: altitude vs. SO2 amount. There is an interesting minimum of SO2 concentration between 20 and 40 km (what is ozone layer altitude?).
Rob Honeycutt@17. “SO2 isn't a greenhouse gas”. At first, sorry for inaccurate link to region of IR-absorption. In this case, it is important that SO2 does absorb IR-radiation. It does not include into IPCC list, but such generally recognized greenhouse gas as water-vapor also absent there. -
nigelj at 07:04 AM on 16 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Interesting article highlighting problems of geotech engineering solutions to climate change. This includes problems of reflection of sunlight, and risks and problems of extracting CO2 through technical fixes, like altering ocean chemistry, and irrigating deserts to plant plant trees.
I dont see how you can be clear on what the effects and risks are from some little isolated experiment over a small part of the atmosphere. This would not be sufficient to account for wide scale atmospheric effects you get in reality. Some of the ideas would also not be easily or quickly reversed, if they went wrong.
We should stop emissions, and stay with more measured enhancements to natural carbon sinks that are a known quantity with low risks.
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nigelj at 05:46 AM on 16 October 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #41
Regarding your article on these irrational, absurd fossil fuel subsidies. This article pointed out politicians receive considerable campaign donations from fossil fuel companies and a lot of lobbying pressure in general, and the potential for this to affect their decision making. It seems unfortunate to me, and equally unfortunate that there are no limits in law on campaign donations in America, and no consideration of other funding methods. Its very unfortunate, because powerful corporate lobbying groups can entirely dominate.
The very fine American Constitution has limits on government, to prevent abuse of power by government. But it doesn't have any limits on activities of private sector and other lobby groups, and funding provided by private sector lobby groups who can equally abuse their power. Is this not a massive inconsistency?
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Bob Loblaw at 02:17 AM on 16 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @ 80:
"What I would like you to respond to is my point that we should not rush into solutions which are extreme from a standpoint of costs when we find that the solutions proposed today are not very appealing from an aesthetic standpoint.
So, what you would like me to do is to follow you on your tangent. OK, I will (for now).
NorrisM: "...solutions which are extreme from a standpoint of costs..."
Me: Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence.
You have used the emotion-laden "extreme" without quantifying actual costs. I find this odd, given that you previously argued in favour of picking the lowest possible social cost of carbon (SCC) from the IPCC. Now, your choice of words suggests that you are focussing on the possible highest costs of proposed solutions.
I respond to your "what if?" scenario with another: what if the SSC is on the high end of the IPCC estimate, and the costs of moving off fossil fuels is on the low end? And instead of proceeding, we wait another 30 years hoping to get a better answer (fewer uncertainties), and by then it is simply too darn late?
I"ve seen excuses like yours for decades. You are choosing the ends of the uncertainty ranges that favour your pre-existing bias. This is a very bad approach to risk management. Hoping that every uncertainty will fall in your favour is hoping for a very unlikely outcome.
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MA Rodger at 20:59 PM on 15 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks @41.
The comment by Eclectic @30 you are referring to evidently concerned the greenhouse properties of SO2 (specifically in the stratosphere). Thus it would concern the lifetime of SO2 in the stratosphere alone. This stratospheric SO2 lifetime is significantly longer than the tropospheric SO2 lifetime, a few weeks rather than a few days. And, as set out up-thread by Eclectic @22 (which you apparently "did not find"), the aerosols resulting from stratospheric SO2 persist for much longer, many weeks, a few months or potentially a couple of years or so, this being dependent on the aerosol size, height and location. See for instance Kleinschmitt et al (2017).
In your citing (& your misquoting) of the OP, the OP noted that the geographical location of the volcanic eruption is a factor, the volcanoes discussed being "all located in the tropics close to the Equator, which allows the sulfur dioxide injected into the stratosphere to spread easily across the hemisphere." This is not the case for volcanoes further from the equator (eg. like the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption). -
RedBaron at 17:21 PM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
@GeoffThomas,
You said, "I realize that 365 billion kGs of carbon/year is not enough, although it is more than that in terms of carbon dioxide, - times 3.5+ but all those figures are conservative"
Actually they are at least an order of magnitude too small, assuming the technique is used to it's full potential. That's because the true value of biochar is in jump starting the liquid carbon pathway by providing a habitat for AMF to get started, and AMF to all the heavy lifting when it comes to carbon sequestration. I had place a link in my previous answer, can we reverse global warming, if you scroll down you will find the technical brief on how it works.
Technical Brief: The Liquid Carbon Pathway
You are just counting the biochar, but in reality, managed properly, it's the glomalin and humic polymers that end up making the vast bulk of the carbon in terre preta. The biochar is just the scaffolding for the living biology that pumps carbon in the soil at a rate of 5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr. Remember, all it takes is 8 tonnes CO2e /ha/yr if all the arable land in the world did this. (integrated in cases of crop and animal husbandry combined) So we are roughly talking about 1/2 the solution actually. (reducing fossil fuels use with solar wind and hydro being the other 1/2)
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nigelj at 12:15 PM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Geoff Thomas, thank's for the information on biochar.
I have to confess I didn't know anything much about it, and had to go a google and read a couple of articles, which totally support what you say. It appears to have a whole range of benefits, and more to the point adequately proven benefits. This alone suggests its an obvious thing to promote.
Its interersting and relevant because my country is hugely dependent on diary farming.
I'm a little bit interested in the use of carbon sinks in the wider sense to mop up emissions. I think Evan is right that storing carbon underground and geotech approaches have so many obvious problems, and can't be counted on. It's one thing to be optimistic about technology when progress is clearly being made and plausible, like battery technology, and another thing to have delusional faith in schemes that even commonsense should tell you are implausible or not cost effective.
But I think natural carbon sinks have some value, and biochar is part of this. I think its probably a case of promoting a combination of things from biochar, to tree planting, to better soil management as various other people talk about on this website.
I think its a case os 1) cutting emissions and 2) promoting natural carbon sinks. Carbon sinks wont do it alone, but will help mop up some emissions. I think its a slow process, but would deal with maybe the difficult aircraft emissions.
However while trees have the most mass storage potential some real problems are clear. For example all these forest fires lately are probably linked to climate change, and undermine this particular carbon sink, and theres evidence some forests are becoming net CO2 emitters, and theres limited land for growing trees. And demand for timber is huge.
In contrast farming and soil management is just a change of methodology, not requiring more land. So it may have more practical potential in the longer term.
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GeoffThomas at 11:15 AM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Evan @19, yes it is an interesting aspect, although I live in a cattle area and those farmers tend to be conservative. I am not giving up however.
Another mob doing research is Ithaka institute in Germany, http://www.ithaka-institut.org/en/ct/94-Cascading-use-of-biochar-in-animal-farming.
In the credits for the above u-tube is a Stephen Joseph, he is doing some amazing research on the more complex aspects of Biochar, -cat-ion exchange enabling etc, a researcher well worth watching.
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Evan at 05:09 AM on 15 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
GeoffThomas@18, thanks for your interesting post. I was not aware of this, and will certainly study this more. There are so many angles to climate change, and whether or not it is as easy as you suggest (feeding charcoal to cows to sequester carbon), it certainly is informative to see additional, creative contributions to the "silver buckshot" we need to get ahead of this problem.
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nigelj at 04:51 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @83
You claim 64% of America would be covered in wind turbines. I think you are simply mistaken. I think you probably read 64,000 something as 64% as we all do this sort of thing on occasion. 64% of America would not be covered in wind farms even commonsense should tell you this you would be talking billions of wind turbines.
The following article is from an industry expert. To completely power America with wind farms would take the area of Rhode Island, which is roughly in the ballpark area of under 1% in the Jacobsen study. Its certainly not 64%.
And it does depend somewhat on power of individual wind turbines and how densely spread the wind towers are to optimise things. Different people have different views on the ideal spacing,so estimates will all vary a bit, but not up to 64%.
The expert goes through his calculations in detail so its all there.
www.businessinsider.com.au/wind-turbines-to-power-earth-2016-9?r=US&IR=T
An excerpt:
"4.082 billion megawatt-hours (the average annual US electricity consumption) divided by 7,008 megawatt-hours of annual wind energy production per wind turbine equals approximately 583,000 onshore turbines.
In terms of land use, those 583,000 turbines would take up about the total land mass of Rhode Island, Hensley says, since wind projects typically require 0.74 acres of land per megawatt produced.
To make his calculation, Hensley considered that the average wind turbine has an output of 2 megawatts of power, and is 40% efficient. That means it can reach its full power-generating potential 40% of the time, since wind is not always blowing and farms sometimes shut down for routine maintenance. That percentage also accounts for electrical grid constraints — if an electrical grid receives more much power from a wind farm than it can handle, for example, managers will turn off a few turbines."
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NorrisM at 03:07 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Michael
I will be home in a couple of days and will reference the paper because I thought I had this right. It astounded me when I read it.
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liua at 01:47 AM on 15 October 2017Other planets are warming
Hi there. I found this claim very interesting and I was intrigued how this claim could support the idea that climate change in natural and not caused by anthropogenic factors. However, I think that it is crucial to taken into account the atmospheric conditions as well as the orbital eccentricity of each respective planet as these can vary greatly so we cannot use these planets as exact analogues for Earth to explain our temperatures.
Additionally, I have checked with the external references cited in the author’s piece. The original researchers have only created models in predicting a potential increase in temperature on Jupiter as a result of the whirlpool and sunspot activity on this planet. I also want to point out that although the luminosity of the planet’s may change, this is not proportional to the temperature of a planet or celestial object.
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michael sweet at 00:32 AM on 15 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Norris,
According to the supplemental information to the article you cite about 600,900 km2 of land is required to generate the power. The USA is about 9,000,000 km2. Your argument is based on a fabrication.,
You invariably choose the most extreme, or fabricated, data. A better choice is the middle of wait,area.
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GeoffThomas at 16:18 PM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Nigelj@2 Biochar has been suggested before but few on this list have taken it up, partly because it requires some info.
However, creating Biochar by feeding Cows, Charcoal, needs no explanation. According to a quick Google search there are 3.2+ Billion cows on our planet, and the demand for their meat will not stop any time soon, - in Australia, there are 28 Million, - outnumbering the people. If you feed a cow between 200 and 400 gms of charcoal per day, it becomes heathier, requires less feed, puts on more weight and is more placid, - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JPoItRWYSQ&feature=youtu.be
so 300 gms (a conservative average) times 3.2 Billion (+) per day, gets app. 1 kg per 3 cows, so app. 1 billion kgs per day, fed to them with their molasses, and then shat out as Biochar, enzymes and all, then buried by the ubiquitous dung beetle, there to enrich the soil and allow it to sequester more carbon in the process, - win,win.
I realize that 365 billion kGs of carbon/year is not enough, although it is more than that in terms of carbon dioxide, - times 3.5+ but all those figures are conservative, do not take into account all the other meat etc. animals that human beings have been blessed with, nor the sequestration possible with that carbon stimulating the soil, nor that taking charcoal for flatulence is well known to humans, so apparently the cows do not fart much methane, - don't know if it affects their burping..
Perhaps there could be a Charcoal tax rather than a carbon tax? - could be politically more acceptable. :)
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Evan at 11:58 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Eclectic@14. Thank you for your comments. My point in quoting Fox news was certainly not to suggest the tide has turned at Fox news, no pun intended. My point was to counter the misinformation of cjones1@10 that "sea levels have fallen." Apparently it is so obvious that they are riaing that not even Fox news suggests they are falling.
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Digby Scorgie at 11:22 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones1 @10
What made you think you could get away with your gish gallop of garbage at a website run by climate scientists and frequented by a large number of science-literate people?
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Evan at 10:49 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Eclectic@14. Thank you for your comments. My point in quoting Fox news was certainly not to suggest the tide has turned at Fox news, no pun intended. My point was to counter the misinformation of cjones1@10 that "sea levels have fallen." Apparently it is so obvious that they are riaing that not even Fox news suggests they are falling.
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Eclectic at 10:20 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Nigelj @11 , it is bold of you to oppose the ideas of Cojones1 (at post #10 ).
Think back 80 years of history, and you will see how the Gish Gallop of ideas of Cojones1 brought about some major changes in Europe especially. If I recall correctly, the well-known Allied soldiers' marching song also mentioned Cosmoswarrior1 as having something similar.
And thank you for your comments, RedBaron @12 . . . though it is distinctly ironic to see the RedBaron flying against the Central Powers of Cojones1 .
Evan @13 , it is certainly tempting to think "the tide has turned" at FoxNews, and that they will in future be reporting truthfully on Global Warming matters. But their track record is discouraging, in that regard.
Yes, a fine Gish Gallop of ideas @10 . . . indeed a bathtub full of them! But an overflowing bathtub seems to have failed to bring any Archimedean enlightenment to Cojones1 .
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nigelj at 09:56 AM on 14 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @80
I think you and Popper are largely wrong on this particular issue. In some cases drastic action simply is clearly needed. Take the obvious example of Samsung’s problem smartphones with the burning batteries, and they immediately took them off the market and had a product recall. They did not phase them down over a five year period. I can think of environmental problems that demanded a similar response, and others that suggest a more incremental response, so we are left with no option other than to look at each case on its merits, and evidence, and this includes climate change. And climate change requires a fairly rapid response now.
I totally disagree with your assertion that we have plenty of time. The Paris accord shows we certainly do not, so therefore any carbon price would need to be ramped up fairly promptly. Because of dithering, badly informed, self interested climate scepticism we are now backed into a corner where a fairly rapid response is required. However a $30 carbon price is ok if its ramped up fairly promptly.
I disagree with your claim that some NOAA study by finds wind power would cover 64% of the landmass of America. I think you have misinterpreted the study or mixed things up. NOAA are also not remotely involved in renewable energy they do atmospheric research.
The original Jacobsen study said about 0.3% of land area, a study by Clack and others claims 6% of land area, but this study is not gold plated, and has also been counter refuted by Jacobsen. But 64% just doesn’t make any sense, unless the turbines were many miles apart. In any event much wind power could be offshore if it bothers you that much.
I also disagree with your assertions that wind power is expensive. Again you have been shown many times costs are almost equal to coal and have never been able to refute this with any source material. You just make yourself sound disingenuous. The following is just one random example you should have been able to google in literally five seconds.
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wind-Energy-Now-Directly-Competing-With-Coal-On-Cost.html
It’s a foolish argument to say do nothing because technology will get better or cheaper. We would never do anything if we thought like that.You fail to consider the simple fact that nobody wants to build nuclear power, and it has only a slight cost advantage over wind, and this is likely to disappear in the near future anyway. However leave it to the market to decide.
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Evan at 09:29 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Fox news tends to down play the risks of global warming, ocean acidification, and climate change. However, here is a quote from Fox news.
"Rising sea levels caused by climate change is expected to exacerbate storm surge flooding."
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RedBaron at 08:52 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones @10
You got caught in the merchant of doubt minefield. I get it. They can be sneaky and have fooled many. But be sure that while yes indeed from time to time CO2 levels have been higher, it was certainly not a good thing. Actually it is associated with several mass extinctions.
The logic fallacy of the merchants of doubt fallacy goes a little like this: CO2 was higher in the past, and life thrived in the past, so current higher CO2 levels will make life thrive even more.
The problem is we also had many mass extinction events in the past too. And sure enough if we look closely at the fossil record, we find that the mass extinctions mostly happened either directly or indirectly from this high CO2 levels when they went on runaway feedbacks for various reasons.
The evidence is pretty clear actually, although still debated and not certain, it is pretty likely. Far more likely than runaway CO2 being a good thing.
Great Dying 252 million years ago coincided with CO2 build-up
Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction
and not only the permian extinction. It is actually a common theme in many mass extinction events.
Doubling Of CO2 Levels In End-Triassic Extinction Killed Off Three Quarters Of Land And Sea Species
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Daniel Mocsny at 08:25 AM on 14 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
Tom13@8:
#6 - the bumble bees range is quite large, as shown for the eastern common bumble bee. A global temp change of .5c over the last 50 or so years isnt going to make an iota of difference.
What is an "iota of difference"? A 5% reduction in the population of a species? A 1% reduction? 10%? A difference too small to measure? And how would you know how much impact a 0.5°C change in average temperature will cause without any attempt to measure it?
You seem to be saying a change in average temperature in a given location in a species' range has no effect other than to make that location exactly like some other location in the species' range at a different latitude or altitude. That is, you are making an unstated ceteris paribus assumption that you must justify.
Your assumption is shaky because a species depends on much more for its survival than just the average temperature at a location. A species also depends on the distributions and life cycles of many other species with overlapping ranges. Those other species adapt to climate change at different rates - some may relocate rapidly in response to a changing average temperature, while others may move only slowly. As a result, a rapid warming in a given location does not instantly transform that location into an exact duplicate of another location at a different latitude or altitude.
Many species lack the ability to store much food, so much of an ecosystem operates on a "just in time" basis. Disuptions to the familiar schedule may, for example, impact migrating birds that find themselves arriving before or after the insects they feed on to get the nutrition they need to lay eggs and raise their young.
With thousands of interdependent species having overlapping ranges all shifting at different rates in response to a rising average temperature, conditions at a given location will be in flux for many years. During that time, some combination of changing factors may turn out to be hostile to a given species, which lacks the ability to ride out the storm. By analogy, if the spot where you are standing is under a flood, your ability to breathe right now isn't helped by knowing the flood will abate in a few days.
Impacts on one species can cascade through an ecosystem, affecting other species that depend on that species. These cascading effects take time and introduce a response lag to a given disruption. (For example, as pine beetles benefit from warmer winters, they need some years to build up their numbers and wipe out forests.) Thus even if the impact of a given warming over the past 50 years on a given species may not be visible now, the impact may not have yet fully played out. By analogy, consider a young adult tobacco smoker who appears to be in good health, or a professional gridiron football player who appears neurologically normal. Unseen damage is accumulating from their respective chemical and head trauma insults. It may manifest more visibly in 20 or 30 years. If physicians could only study young smokers and football players, they might not guess what's in store for many of them.
Global average temperature has hardly stopped rising. The temperature rise over the past 50 years is but a tiny fraction (perhaps a fifth to a tenth) of what the next century will see, barring drastic action to halt human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Humans remain solidly on pace to heat the Earth to levels Earth has not seen in millions of years, by restoring atmospheric carbon dioxide to levels Earth last saw millions of years ago.
The roughly 5°C rise in average global temperature between the previous glacial maximum and the year 1750 was also less than the daily and seasonal temperature variation at many locations on Earth. But that seemingly small global average temperature change melted at least a vertical kilometer of ice from what is now Chicago. If we've already caused a temperature change equal to 10% of that post-Ice Age temperature change in just the past 50 years, how could it not be having, and be yet to have, impacts?
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nigelj at 07:12 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
cjones @10
I disagree completely, and you cite no sources of research information, so have no credibility.
"CO2 levels were higher throughout most o of Earth's history."
Just a false empty assertion with no evidence provided, plus bad spelling. CO2 levels are currently considerably higher than at least the last 800,000 years as below.
www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938
"Temperatures have been higher in the past as well and life thrived. CO2 levels of 1000 ppm are ideal for greenhouses and agriculture has benefited from increasing CO2 levels."
The sort of life that thrived in higher temperatures was not necessarily the ideal sort of life actually. The temperatures we are heading towards are not good for crop production ultimately, and for human survival, and the rapid rates of change are greater than historically, and thus present particular problems with adaptation for all species. Higher temperatures also mean sea level rise and more intense storms. This is all covered in the last IPCC report, which is available online and easily googled.
And humans dont live in glass greenhouses.
"According to NASA sea levels have fallen...."
For about two years, which is normal short term fluctuation due to natural variability, just as they have fallen for short periods like this scattered through the last 100 years, then increased again on each occasion after a couple of years in a pattern over time. The dominant trend over the last 100 years is rising sea levels easly seen if you google the jason topex satellite sea level rise data.
"Too many natural factors such as solar sunspot cycles, orbital cycles, climatic oscillations,"
Blah, blah, blah the denialist does his best to spread confusion and doubt straight form the corporate lobbying play book. All these elements have been researched in hundreds of research papers, and do not explain recent warming. Try reading this website starting with the list of "most used climate myths"
I dont think the moderator is going to be happy with you somehow.
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cjones1 at 06:36 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
CO2 levels were higher throughout most o of Earth's history. Temperatures have been higher in the past as well and life thrived. CO2 levels of 1000 ppm are ideal for greenhouses and agriculture has benefited from increasing CO2 levels. I saw a presentation where none of the CO2 models accurately predicted temperature as the CO2 levels have risen. NASA just admitted that sea levels have fallen. Too many natural factors such as solar sunspot cycles, orbital cycles, climatic oscillations, accrurately understanding the carbon cycle, and historical climate change has been left out in the AGW proponents rush to solely tie CO2 levels temperature fluctuations.
Moderator Response:[JH] Blatant sloganeering sipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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nigelj at 05:17 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @37
You appear to remain doubtful about the precise effect of C02 on temperature (your maths model thing) . It has already been explained that no experiment in a jar can achieve this accurately or even moderately accurately, because it cannot duplicate the atmosphere. Nobody has to prove Wards experiment wrong with another experiment, given his basic assumptions are wrong.
You need to read the research done on inferring the maths of the effect of CO2 on temperature starting with Arrhenius and Hulbert and moving on from there to more modern work. You then need to prove them wrong through normal scientific channels, if you feel you see fault in their work. Just ignoring what they say, and expressing a preference for some other approach in a jar, is just the talk of a naive layperson. Their results are reasonably accurate, enough to be useful.
The best test of a theory such as quantification of effects of CO2 is predictive ability. Look at the graphs of climate models in the article "How well have climate models predicted global warming" on this website a couple of days ago. The models have done reasonably well. They would not be able to do this is the basic "maths model" of CO2 was wildly innacurate. End of story.
What's more we know the reason these models are not as yet perfect is because of the difficulties of dealing with natural variation and warming feedback effects, not doubt about the basic maths model of how a molecule of CO2 affects temperature. So all Im saying is step back and take a wider view of everything and it becomes clearer.
Dont waste time over SO2. Ample evidence has been shown that its a weak greenhouse gas, and quantities in the atmosphere are vastly less than CO2. Therefore further discussion on detailed aspects is irrelevant to climate change and this website, and leads me to conclude you are deliberately muddying the waters.
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NorrisM at 03:49 AM on 14 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw
What I would like you to respond to is my point that we should not rush into solutions which are extreme from a standpoint of costs when we find that the solutions proposed today are not very appealing from an aesthetic standpoint. So let us use gradualism. This is the Karl Popper thought that is based upon common sense. Take some reasonable steps now and see how it goes. Leaving aside issues of CH4 permafrost, we are not heading over a cliff.
In response to nigelj's comment agreeing that in some cases Popper's view makes sense but not in cases "where it so clear as to the imminent danger" , I would suggest that Popper's response would be that everyone says that their situation is absolutely clear and drastic action should be taken. Extremism is one of the biggest problems we face today and I worry that proposals for massive changes to respond to climate change would fit into this category.
Let me give one "what if" that I can think of. Assume that Trump gets kicked out of office, a Democrat wins the presidency and the Democrats magically take over control of both houses. They immediately respond with a massive program of changing the US power grid to the existing technology for wind turbines (and or solar PV) and the rest of the world goes along (along with FF/hydro as backup). I am not through reading the IPCC report on costs so let us just stick with wind turbines (because solar PV seems far off from the various models).
So now in the US we have wind turbines over ballpark 64% of the land mass of the US (see NOAA study June 2017 responding to Jacobson study). Then, either the new wind turbine technology or some new technology is found that means that 75% or more of the wind turbines are not needed. But the costs of dismantling these wind turbines does not justify their removal. So they just sit there unused because they are uneconomic.
What have we done to our world?
Is technology going to find better solutions? I would bet that is the case and it is only a question of when.
So we have defaced our world for nothing. If we start with a $30 carbon tax that lays a cost on FF for pollution then we will encourage new technological solutions to replace FF.
Everytime I see a list of the "bad things" that will happen to our planet, I sit back and think: "take a deep breath". We have decades of time within which to deal with this problem. Let us not rush "pel mel" (sp) into something that we will come to regret. A move to nuclear power would not create these kind of problems in my personal view.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Eclectic at 01:56 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @41 ,
the article (above) by Lehner & Fasullo is not a complete description of every aspect of climate science — and thus it is necessary for you to "add to it" with knowledge of other aspects [if not from your own prior scientific knowledge, then from your further reading from other threads & other sources].
As mentioned earlier, the NASA website can give you information. In this case, NASA describes the relatively rapid reaction of SO2 with atmospheric H2O, to alter the radiative & reflective properties associated with the volcanic-origin sulfur.
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aleks at 01:43 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Eclectic@30
"As mentioned above in this thread, volcanic SO2 in the stratosphere has a very short life". I did not find any mention about short life of SO2 both in the discussed article and comments. Conversely, the authors of this article say that "sulfur dioxide injected into the stratosphere spreads easily along the hemisphere". So, when you told about short life of SO2, what do you mean: formation of aerosols with water (depends on ratio SO2/H2O and temperature), oxidation or reduction (by what agents?), or photochemical destruction by UV-radiation?
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Eclectic at 01:42 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @37 ,
why do you say it would be "impossible" to speak about the ideas put forward by a person (such as Mr Ward) who is not engaging in the discussion here? We are able to discuss the ideas of Newton and Einstein, despite the absence of those two gentlemen. Likewise, we are able to discuss (and disparage) the ideas put forward by members of the Flat Earth Society, despite the absence of those members.
The Flat-Earthers put forward many ideas to support their Flat Earth hypothesis — and their many ideas are garbage. Crazy unscientific garbage. Completely unreliable!
It is a waste of your (and everyone's) time to go into a detailed discussion of the Flat-Earther crazy ideas. Likewise it is a waste of time going into a detailed discussion of the many points of unmitigated garbage put forward by P.L.Ward .
Aleks, for your sake I beg of you — don't waste your valuable time on P.L.Ward . Much better instead, for you to educate yourself with genuine scientific knowledge.
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MA Rodger at 01:05 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
The OP does appear to take for ganted that there is a good chance of an La Nina developing in the next few months and also that Mount Agung is soon to erupt. I would suggest there is some significant doubt on both assumptions.
Concerning the La Nina, this is a long way from a certain outcome, even a weak La Nina. The predictions (eg here) have been remarkably changeable over the last couple of months with an El Nino being predicited as much more likely as recently as July. And even as recent as September the continued ENSO Neutral condition was predicted as the most likely outcome over the winter.
Also the seismic activity generated by Mount Agung is being taken as the sign of a forthcoming major eruption. Yet (and this a hostage to fortune - a major eruption is entirely possible), the BBC report the following in their Mount Agung story:-
"According to the volcanologists monitoring Mount Agung, this situation could continue for weeks, maybe even months. An eruption may not even happen, they simply don't know. At the government observation base, senior seismologist Devy Kamil remains patient - despite the long queue of journalists who have been knocking on his door all week, hoping for some news. "There are some examples where you have swarms of activity for as long as six years," he explains, "and it is not always ended by an eruption."
So an eruption is not guaranteed and the seismic activity may last years. (The further point is made elsewhere that today's instrumentation was not available back in 1963 so comparisons with that eruption are not possible.)
And the idea that any new eruption will be a repeat of 1963 is not supported by the historical evidence. The eruption previous to 1963 was 1843 and that does not apper to feature in the volcanic ejection record in polar ice cores (eg Jiang et al 2012) (although Osipov et al (2014) show no 1836 Cosigüina eruption but instead an eruption dated to 1840 and labelled 'unknown' - this indicative of the reliability of the dating of ice core data).
Certainly nothing giving such a mark as the 1963 eruption appears on the appropriate portion of the 19th century ice core record.
Indeed, there is little enough information about Mt Agung prior to 1963. Zen & Hadikusumo (1964) set out the reports from 1843 thus:-" «After having been dormant for a long time, this year the mountain began to be alive again. In the first days of the activity earthquake shocks were felt after which followed the emission of ash, sand and stones.» These are the only words which described the eruption of 1843. "
And prior to 1843, the record of Mt Agung eruptions is entirely sparce. There is mention of the first recorded eruption being a 1808 eruption that dragged on to 1821, or mention elsewhere that 1821 was a seperate eruption. Today the standard press quotes seems to be a repeat of a 20th Sept UPI item "There was an eruption of similar intensity in 1843, and several in the 16th to 18th centuries," a quote that beyond 1843 is not based on evidence, or none that I can see.
So we may or may not have a weak La Nina in the offing. And we may or may not have Mt Agung erupt and if it does it may or may not be as climatically significant as 1963.
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MA Rodger at 00:38 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks @35.
When you say "the consensus in this problem is impossible now," I will assume you are saying that you remain unconvinced by any of the scientific evidence. This may be your personal position but it is not a scientific one.
However, there is one loose end in all this. You stated @18 "SO2 absorbs IR-radiation in the region 3.5-19 micron." The basis for your statement remains unclear. I will assume it would not lie within the chemistry text book you cite (although the reasons for your citation are not entirely clear). And there is no sign of a "region 3.5-19 micron" in the Google Image Search page you linked to up-thread.
Up-thread there are graphs of the SO2 IR absorption spectrum. More precisely the SO2 absorption peaks could be described as spanning 4μm to 18μm. Or the absorbtion bands could be described as spanning 3.9μm to 20μm. (I note the graph @34 shows a 200μm absorption peak which perhaps has more chance of interferring with a radio than interferring with climate.) But I am unable to make sense of describing the range 3.5μm to 19μm.
So can you set out the basis for your statement "SO2 absorbs IR-radiation in the region 3.5-19 micron" ?
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RedBaron at 00:20 AM on 14 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Tunnelly,
You said, "I also like the implicit recognizitonthat the only significant engineering problem left is the development of effective carbon removal technology"
Actually that part of it is done. We can do it and it is feasible and mature technology and the case studies have been done to prove it feasible at scale in the field. Not only feasible but actually highly profitable.
The problem has nothing to do with technology but rather the many billions of dollars being spent to prevent it from being implemented.
Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised
Farming a climate change solution
"If all farmland was a net sink rather than a net source for CO2, atmospheric CO2 levels would fall at the same time as farm productivity and watershed function improved. This would solve the vast majority of our food production, environmental and human health ‘problems’." Dr. Christine Jones
I wrote several whole essays about it both here and at quora. One of them was recently picked up by RedPlanet and published.
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aleks at 00:06 AM on 14 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Eclectic @28
I did not know before about Mr.Ward scientific activity. But in any case it seems to me impossible to speak bad about the person who does not take part in our discussion. I was not sure about the reliability P.L.Ward's data because the cited article did not contain a detailed description of the experiment and estimation of the data precision. Nevertheless, the experiment can be refuted only by other experiment. So, I will be very grateful for link containing description of such or similar experiment.
Moderator Response:[DB] "the experiment can be refuted only by other experiment"
An opinion piece like Ward's is not a peer-reviewed piece published in a credible scientific journal, thus it needs no scientific refutation via published research study. The existing research stands unchallenged by such.
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Tunnelly at 21:59 PM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Excellent reduction of the challenges to gobal efforts to effect gobal climate change: "problem(s) of communication and trust in the scientific community" & "problem(s) of willpower."
I also like the implicit recognizitonthat the only significant engineering problem left is the development of effective carbon removal technology by omitting any debate re: the feasability/reliablity of low-carbon energy systems.
Becuase of the uncertainty and ethical dilemma of "betting" on future development of direct atmospheric carbon removal technology, I would be interested in seeing more information on the potential impact of forest conservation a la the UN-REDD program to "reduce forest emissions and enhance carbon stocks from forests while contributing to national sustainable development."
http://www.unredd.net/index.php?option=com_docman&view=document&alias=14096-un-redd-pb14-2015-strategic-framework&category_slug=session-3-strategic-and-policy-issues&Itemid=134
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Digby Scorgie at 12:51 PM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Never mind, Evan. As a retired technical writer, I know just how difficult it is to rid even the simplest document of all typos and silly mistakes.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:55 AM on 13 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
aleks:
I don't know where you are getting your information, but it is way, way out of date. The myth that "volcanoes eruptions could be an important cause of ozone layer depletion" was doing the rounds over 20 years ago. Before the World Wide Web was popular, there was Usenet and news groups. The FAQ on ozone myths was produced way back then.
http://faqs.cs.uu.nl/na-dir/ozone-depletion/idx.html
Look at part II. It's 20 years old (last update), but the debunking of your myth is probably older than some of the people reading this web site.
Please try to catch up.
Moderator Response:[PS] watch tone please.
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Evan at 10:43 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
I just noticed the other embarassing mistake. "When is it too late the hit the brakes" should be "When is it too late to hit the brakes"
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Evan at 10:37 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Thank you Digby for your correction. And to think I once called myself an editor.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:31 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
In the cartoon, it should be "never too late".
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cjones1 at 08:01 AM on 13 October 2017DeConto et al: Thawing permafrost drove the PETM extreme heat event
As far as I know, there was no permafrost in the Arctic or Antarctic during the Eocene. The Antarctic did not freeze over until around 34-35 mya and the Artctic until about 3 mya.
Moderator Response:[PS] Please read the article (and paper). Lack of ice in Antarctica is key. You dont need ice-covered poles to have permafrost.
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Evan at 07:22 AM on 13 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
If we look backwards as it has been suggested by ubrew12@1 that Lamar Smith is apparently doing, we still see the climate warming at a measured rate of 2C/100 years (see Analogy 4). Thus, projecting forward with a linear view derived from the past still spells trouble.
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