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nigelj at 09:44 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom@13
Yes wind power receives subsidies of tens of millions of pounds. Henchley nuclear station is to be subsidised by 30 billion pounds as below from The Financial Times, paid for by consumers.
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Tom13 at 08:37 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
From the third paragraph of nigelj's link-
Ministers said the multimillion-pound pot of subsidies would generate clean power for 3.6m homes. Two windfarms – the Hornsea 2 project off the Yorkshire coast and the Moray offshore windfarm in Scotland – secured a guaranteed price for their power of £57.50 per megawatt hour (MWh) from the government. This is far below the £92.50 awarded to Hinkley last year.
Is it really that cost competitive if the government has to offer real cash subsidies?
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nigelj at 08:25 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
The cost of offshore wind farms has dropped dramatically in the United Kingdom, and electricity from these is cheaper than the proposed Hinkley nuclear plant as below:
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nigelj at 07:54 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
Red Baron @49, I meant the ground issues are a side issue in the sense Tom is missing the big picture, namely that warmer temperatures are causing more floods.
Obviously you are right surfaces are critical to flood impacts, and roads, buildings and urbanisation can make flooding worse. I showed this anyway in my comment.
We should be preserving wetlands and using more permeable ashphalt etc. Trouble is this requires environmental rules the very things the Trump Adminsitration opposes. This whole thing has become a political problem sadly to say. Political and ideological.
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nigelj at 07:33 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
The philosophical roots of Thatcherism and Reagonism go back to M Friedman, F Hayek and AynRand, and glorify the individual and acquistive instincts, and oppose collectivism and ideas of society and collective responsibility and ownership. The philosophy is also suspicious of government regulation.The belief system is best seen in terms of economic history and anthropology, because its a reaction to various historical cycles and evolutionary processes, as follows.
Early human hunter gatherers were a sharing society, because it worked, but only because it was small groups in an abundant world. The development of farming 10,000 years ago lead ultimately to specialisation, complexity, individualism, capitalism and private ownership. This system reached its peak in the industrial revolution, and became very harsh and crashed in the 1920's leading to the great depression.
The depression lead to the mixed economy that combined capitalism and socialism to the extent of trade tariffs, public education, environmental laws, the welfare state, income support, etc, etc. This system worked but eventually stagnated in the 1980s and lead to Thatcherism and Reagonism and a return to individualism and free markets, deregulation, flat taxes, and glorification of markets as the singular measure of success.
This neoliberal philosophy was extreme, uncompromising and single minded. Oddly enough it did promote good environmental laws, but more recent governments have abandoned this like Trump and there has always been an emphasis that "less regulation is by principle better".
Capitalism and the class structure also crashed in Russia in 1919, and lead to communism. This in turn stagnated and fed into fears that lead to Reagonism.
The global financial crash has highlighted the huge weaknesses of neoliberalism, Thatcherism, Reagonism, deregulation, laissez faire capitalism, and excessive faith in markets. The whole thing has come undone and is destroying the planet, and causing high inequality etc. Yet at the same time free markets and private ownership generate economic power and innovation, and are good things, so we have a frustrating situation to resolve, and its not a simple thing.
Scandinavia has done a good job of reconciling competing realities and facts. They have done a nice job combining the best virtues of free markets, capitalism, and individualism and freedom, with things like public education, strong environmental laws, a supportive welfare state, the cooperative spirit, etc. They avoid ideological dogma and take a practial approach that is very child focussed. This is a very successfull, practical, balanced version of the mixed economy. It shows in their good economic and social statistics and quality of life. The proof is in the results.
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Ken in Oz at 07:15 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
If "the job" is to prevent climate responsibility being an essential component of decision making by those in positions of trust and responsibility then Trump does look like he is picking the right people.
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RedBaron at 05:50 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John,
I read as much as I could stand until I got so angry my computer screen was in danger of being thrown across the room. Don't get me wrong. I see nothing but good intentions. Unfortunately good intentions doomed to fail.
Expect little to no help from GLO. Even while understanding the current paradigm is failing, they are still stuck in it. Lots and lots of great information there. Don't get me wrong. What is lacking is a good understanding of the whole system and how it all connects.
For example. Take the cow. The way it is raised now it is inefficient and degrading the environment. Completely unsustainable. That includes all sorts of mismanagement. Over gazing, under grazing, feedlots, confinement dairies. Almost every way out there to raise a cow is wrong. Even some cultures thousands of years old have been doing it wrong thousands of years. Feedlots only took what was bad and made it worse!
So it is easy to see why some might conclude that lowering meat production is required to get to a sustainable solution. The models Chapter 6 | Scenarios of Change clearly show this paradigm and if that wasn't spelled out well enough there, the executive summary specifically does.
And yet that conclusion is completely wrong. It's a wicked problem of complexity, so I get it. It might be nearly impossible for any comity to get right. But it is doomed to failure as presented.
We actually have to increase animal production while reducing grain production by 50% - 75% +/-. Those animals need integrated back on the farm, then managed properly as an important proxy for wild ecosystem function. Scale is not a problem. Animals scale better than almost anything in agriculture. But the imbalance right now is too many crops and not enough animals on the farm displaying their evolved purpose to the artificial agricultural ecosystem.
"The pigs do that work (by rooting in the forest and that creates the temporary disturbance on the ground that allows germination for higher successional species.) And so it allows for those pigs to be not just pork chops, bacon, and that. But now they then become co-conspirators and fellow laborers in this great land healing ministry ... by fully respecting the pigness of the pig." Joel Salatin
“As the small trickle of results grows into an avalanche — as is now happening overseas — it will soon be realized that the animal is our farming partner and no practice and no knowledge which ignores this fact will contribute anything to human welfare or indeed will have any chance either of usefulness or of survival.” Sir Albert Howard (emphasis mine)
“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
Once you commit to a sustainable system, then two things happen. The animal tools that were the greatest destruction become the tools for greatest repair. The whole reason for Biofuels as currently being produced ends.
Biofuels ONLY makes sense in a system where they are burned and then CO2 extrated and sequestered from the stack in a CCS system. But the technology to do that doesn't exist.
The LCP does exist and has been well vetted at scale in the field for decades.[1] Foolish to follow a failed path when the sucessful path is already known. Throwing good money after bad because the investors spent so much on the failed "king corn" paradigm they refuse to awknowledge their loss. I am sorry they spent trillions on it. But time to admit it's lipstick on a pig.
This dichotomy is probably best described here:
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John Hartz at 02:47 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
RedBaron: Thank you for filling us in re the former prairie biome of the greater Houston metyro area — most informative and interesting.
Swtiching gears, do you plan to read the new report, The Global Land Outlook, just issued by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)?
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:07 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
What the likes of the US Republicans/British Brexiters are doing today can be understood to be a continuation of what the likes of Reagan and Thatcher pushed for. Naomi Klein has fairly clearly presented it as the challenge that reality is imposing on the damaging desires/delusions of the likes of Unite the Right groups such as the Brexit Pushing Parties and current day US Republican Party.
And the 1987 UN commissioned report "Our Common Future" presented a succinct description of what the likes of Unite the Right groups are trying to continue to get away with anywhere they can, any way they can. That report includes the following in its Overview "From One Earth to One World" as a conclusion of the section on "The Interlocking Crises".
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."The report could be seen as a rebuke of the Reagan/Thatcher economic push. And the waning popular support for the perceptions that 'those types of wealthy winners are deserving because they have Won something' has led to Unite the Right which pursues Loyal support from less tolerant people by offering to give them 'what They want in ways that will not cost the greedy very much' (collective loyal action by the greedier alone is no longer enough to Win)
And the Reagan/Thatcher push of the 1980s can be seen as a response to the 1972 UN Stockholm Conference report that pointed out the damaging unsustainability of development in many of the directions that the likes of the USA and Britain had been developing along. It was an attempt to prolong the ability of people to get undeservingly rich by continuing to get away with what was understandably unsustainable/unacceptable activity as much as possible for as long as possible.
And since the 1972 Stockholm Conference the international community has continued expanding awareness and improving the understanding of what is required for the future of humanity. "Our Common Future" led to many initiatives including the series of Global Assessment Reports on risks and risk management. All that effort is captured in the current best understanding of the required objectives/changes presented in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
The SDG objectives/changes all need to be pursued/acheived concurrently, including action to reduce climate change impacts. And the climate change impacts include the need for 'those who are more fortunate because of getting away with benefiting from unacceptable impacts' to fairly compensate those who are already negatively affected and help those less fortunate sustainably become more fortunate (not develop along the direction that the likes of the USA and Britain did, a direction that is damaging and ultimately requires correction).
All of that robustly developed and established understanding, hard to reasonably argue against, can be seen to be contrary to the variety of interests of the people that Unite the Right encourages/appeals to in the hopes of continuing to Win as long as they can get away with.
The book Al Gore wrote after "An Inconvenient Truth" was "The Assault on Reason". He had Good Reason to write that.
Poor Excuses for Bad Behaviour will likely always find a very receptive audience. It is easier to sell Poor Excuses for actions some people can see a personal benefit from. It is much harder to convince already fortunate people that they have to give up personally beneficial pursuits that they might be able to get away with, and also help others less fortunate without any expectation of getting any personal benefit in return (being genuinely charitable/helpful).
The success of deliberately misleading marketing is the real challenge to be overcome, and not just regarding climate science. The future of humanity depends upon Good Reason Winning Over Poor Excuses.
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RedBaron at 00:53 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
@ John 44,
You said, "I also suspect that a goodly portion of the greater Houston metro area was also wetlands prior to being "developed.""
In actuality this was a very famous portion of prairie biome, well known as the most southernly portion of the once great tallgrass prairie of North America. The average grass in Houston was at one time well over the height of a man and in areas approaching 10-12 feet tall! In those days the soil would have infiltrated and held at minimum 25 times more water by volume and by rate than its current degraded state.
Read up on this most southern spur of the great tallgrass prairie (called the blackland prairies ecoregion in Texas) here:
Native Prairies association of Texas
As pointed out earlier here, one particular grass (Eastern Gamagrass) evolved here had a special root system capable of penetrating the clay and opening up channels. This is not some random generic "vegetation" it was a very highly evolved carbon pump into the soil that had a very strong symbiotic relationship with a whole host of other species, not the least of which was AMF.
Nigelj #43,
You said, "The ground surfaces are just a side issue, to the weather / climate processes." Not at all. In fact the exact opposite on both counts. The soil is the PRIMARY factor actually for watershed function and at least equal with regards to the Carbon cycle.
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John Hartz at 00:27 AM on 14 September 2017Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Norris M @247: You state,
My take on all of this is that no one is denying that there clearly was a MWP which, given the droughts in the SW US and the recent Chinese Academy of Sciences report on a MWP in China, suggests that this was probably prevalent in most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Your tentative conclusion about the MWP being prevelant in the Northen Hemisphere is not supported by the research documented in the following articles:
So-Called Medieval Warm Period Not So Warm After All by Michael D Lemonick, Climate Central, Oct 1, 2012
Study undercuts idea that 'Medieval Warm Period' was global: Vikings may not have colonized Greenland in nice weather, Science Daily, Dec 4, 2015
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NorrisM at 15:01 PM on 13 September 2017Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Moderator
Thanks. I have read the above material and watched the video. I think the best summary of things is the National Academy of Sciences 2006 report which you have quoted above.
I think the full paragraph makes it clear that although they generally agree with the Mann representation they clearly disagree with some of his statements regarding the 1990's being the hottest on record:
"Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium. The substantial uncertainties currently present in the quantitative assessment of large-scale surface temperature changes prior to about A.D. 1600 lower our confidence in this conclusion compared to the high level of confidence we place in the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century warming. Even less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that “the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium” because the uncertainties inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual years and decades are larger than those for longer time periods and because not all of the available proxies record temperature information on such short timescales."
My take on all of this is that no one is denying that there clearly was a MWP which, given the droughts in the SW US and the recent Chinese Academy of Sciences report on a MWP in China, suggests that this was probably prevalent in most of the Northern Hemisphere. It was not caused by humans so there had to be natural explanations for it. Those explanations have been provided which suggests higher solar activity and less volcanoes. But the evidence seems to be clear that these temperatures did not reach today's world levels. The "global temperature" at that time did not reach what we are experiencing globally today. At this same time, the sea levels did rise and drop matching the MWP and Little Ice Age but again not as significant as the sea level rise in the last 100 years or so. I also note that the Michael Mann 2008 EIV proxy data temperatures (which I believe he thinks are the best) no longer look like a hockey stick.
But the bottom line is that without some other explanation, given the significant increases in CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial era, most of the present temperature rise since 1800 has to be attributed to man.
Interesting, in my summary, I think you would have agreed with my analysis until I said 1800 and not 1950 as per the IPCC. Perhaps there is some other explanation for that part of the temperature rise that occurred from 1900 to 1950?
I am happy to move on to considering what the predictions are for the future and how best to deal with those predictions and the consequences.
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Rovinpiper at 14:39 PM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
I did hear a piece on NPR which discussed changing development laws in Texas to prevent people from simply routing runoff directly into the bayous causing flooding downstream. It suggested that artificial retention ponds are not a common thing in Texas. This is surprising to me. I thought there was some federal law requiring that wetlands destroyed by development be replaced with created wetlands.
With development of course, one must consider not only blacktop and concrete, but also rooves of various materials. With the exception of green rooves, rooves are impermeable by design.
Also, note that the weight of pavement and other construction materials and the machinery and activity of construction will result in compaction of the underlying soil. This will not promote water infiltration. Also, if you have a permeable pavement there will still be a slowing of infiltration at the interface between that material and the soil. Anytime you have a difference in texture between layers in a soil it slows infiltration. It doesn't matter whether that is a finer soil layer over a coarser one, or vice versa.
The bottom line is that more development will result in more runoff. -
John Hartz at 12:12 PM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
Recommended supplemental reading:
Irma Won’t “Wake Up” Climate Change-Denying Republicans. Their Whole Ideology Is On The Line. by Naomi Klein, The Intercept, Sep 11, 2017
Can Irma finally blow through the GOP’s climate change denial? by Sarah Posner, the Plum Line, Washington Post, Sep 11, 2017
No, Trump Still Hasn't Changed His Mind About Climate Change After Hurricane Irma and Harvey by Alana Abramson, Time Magazine, Sep 11, 2017
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Digby Scorgie at 11:15 AM on 13 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
All right, I won't be too hard on the vegetable farmers!
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nigelj at 09:29 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John Hartz, I should have known that song was hers. I was lucky enough to see Joni Mitchell play live many years ago, and she is an appealing, astonishing, multi talented musician. I have a couple of cd's somewhere, court and spark, and heijra, and blue. I have heard she is very unwell these days, unfortunately, but the music is timeless.
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John Hartz at 09:19 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
nigelj: I also suspect that a goodly portion of the greater Houston metro area was also wetlands prior to being "developed."
The song was "Big Yellow Taxi" written and sung by Joni Mitchell. The frst two stanzas:
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
With a pink hotel *, a boutique
And a swinging hot spotDon't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
Till it's gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot*The Pink Hotel in this song is most likely the Royal Hawaiian in Honolulu.
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nigelj at 08:48 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John Hartz @42, I agree vegetation slows down impacts of rainfall. Topsoils and upper levels of clays that are dry, would also absorb a lot of moisture and act as a cushion. I was just intrigued on the permeability comparison just of the materials, in terms of water ultimately getting down to the water table.
What was that song "they paved papadise and put up a parking lot"? Bob Dylan, or Joni Mitchell I think one or the other.
And regardless of all this the main point I took from the article was higher temperatures do cause more flood events. The ground surfaces are just a side issue, to the weather / climate processes.
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nigelj at 08:21 AM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
The Republicans have indeed left an unfortunate legacy of issues, as Ubrew notes. Reagon was responsible for high spending and trillions in debt, (as in link below) and for no good reason. Times were good, no massive economic crash, he never needed to borrow so much money and its just astonishing and contradictory, coming from so called fiscal conservatives
mises.org/library/sad-legacy-ronald-reagan-0
Americas success in the past has been ensuring institutions are independent, (like the EPA) with mandates under law and leaders who are as impartial as possible and non political where possible. I hugely admire this even if it would frustrate me if I was leader, because you can see the value in this system. This is now being systematically wrecked, with undermining of institutions independence, and appointing anti science hacks and unqualified political partisans to positions of power.
It will undermine a sustainable future, in the name of populism and short term profits. The American economy is growing at a reasonably good rate, over the last 4 years approx. and is near maximum capacity and doesn't even need an artificiant boost anymore or the sort of restructuring being attempted to trim agencies of the state, or tax cuts etc.
The current white house leadership is economically, socially, environmentally and scientifically illiterate. Thats where the evidence points, overwhelmingly.
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ubrew12 at 07:16 AM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
"government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem" Ever since Reagan made that extremely popular statement, Republicans have been voted into office to, essentially, not do their job. This has piled up a hornet's nest of unresolved issues: the monumental public debt/GDP (now at a level not seen since WWII and with nothing to show for it), cruelly disfunctional healthcare, failing infrastructure, unresolved immigration issues, wealth inequality to make the Gilded Age jealous, 'Axis-of-Evil' members on the cusp of nuclear-ICBM capability, an opiate crisis erupting in the heartland, a broken education system, and now climate denial as policy, in the face of 50 years of scientific certainty. The GOP has been advertising for 30 years now that if you just hire them to do the job, they will prove to you that the job cannot be done. And America has hired them. And they have proven what they set out to prove, so I guess it was money well spent. Bridenstine is a disgusting choice for NASA, but no longer a surprising choice. By the time he's done with his 'work', everyone in America is going to know that only the private sector can reliably take us to space. Apollo must just be more of that 'fake-news'.
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John Hartz at 07:15 AM on 13 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
More articles of note:
Four little discussed ways that climate change could make hurricanes even worse by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Sep 11, 2017
How global warming could push hurricanes to new regions by Bob Berwyn, Pacific Standard, Sep 11, 2017
'I Don't Expect The Season To Be Done': A Hurricane Expert On What's Still To Come by Kate Wheeling, Pacific Standard, Sep 12, 2017
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John Hartz at 07:07 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
nigelj: The permeability index of Houston's clay soil versus concrete and asphalt is only one dimension of the matter at hand. Vegitation grows in clay soils and its presence will increase the soil's permeability and slow the rate of water flow. Like most US metro areas, Houston has "paved over paradise".
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nigelj at 06:34 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
Permeability index of soil versus concrete and asphalt.
No answer from Tom.
Im not an engineer but this got me intrigued. The Houston clays have very low permeability,and the numbers are on the internet.
The trouble is concrete and asphalt measures it using a different scale and its a headache comparing them. Also the permeability of concrete and asphalt varies from essentially zero to quite high permeability for modern environmentally friendly products introduced in the late 1980s. Its hard to know what types of concrete and asphalt Houston has used over the years, but I would hazard a guess the older materials have essentially zero permeability and are the dominant surfaces.
I think the article was therefore correct to say concrete and asphalt would increase flooding risk, but perhaps not by huge ammounts given the very low permeability of the clays.
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william5331 at 05:53 AM on 13 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
Is Nitrogen the new Carbon. Probably, but it doesn't have to be so. Read David R Mongomery's book Growing a Revolution. Not only could we stop this trend but the farmers could be the hero's of the age while actually increasing their profits. What is needed is demonstration farms spread far and wide. Farmers are incredible conservative (dad did it and so did grandad) so only an example is likely to sway them. Research at an agricultural institution won't hack it. What dean of agriculture will allow research on his patch which will cause his main contributors to stop their funding . (fertilizer manufacturers for instance)
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sunshine confetti bomb at 17:28 PM on 12 September 2017It's cosmic rays
"However, the hypothesis is also disproven just by examining the data."
how is Mr. Svensmark's cloud driven climate change a hypothesis when he tested, concluded with results to back his theory...
Moderator Response:[JH] Please read the Advanced version of the rebuttal article.
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RedBaron at 16:12 PM on 12 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
Digby Scorgie,
Surprisingly, vegetable farming in both a regenerative and scale-able production model is about one of the hardest of all. In fact it is the subject of my own personal research and development. But it is only about 1% of land.[1] The vast majority of ag land is rangeland and forest, followed by the commodity grains, wheat, rice, corn.
I could probably show them some tricks, but it is the gap as of yet not thoroughly vetted. Gives me something to do, but I never try to fool myself as to scale. Rather insignificant. Of course in my mind 1% of something as big as worldwide agriculture is still plenty important enough for me.
For climate scientists though, the main thing to understand is we know quite well how to use regenerative ag in commodity grains and rangeland. It is enough.
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Digby Scorgie at 14:59 PM on 12 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
RedBaron @19
I was thinking of the full set of the better farming methods, not just of SRI. For example, there is a vegetable farm a kilometre away from where I live; at the moment it is just a vast stretch of bare ground — so much for cover crops. The message is not getting through to enough of the world's farmers.
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wili at 14:37 PM on 12 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
From #3 above: "...Models project that this expansion will continue throughout the twenty-first century, whatever the scenario..."
Well...that sounds kinda...bad...
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nigelj at 11:58 AM on 12 September 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
Tom13
I have also read that crop yields were higher in Europe during the mwp and fell during the little ice age then rose a bit after that. Im not sure about much higher, as you give no source for your claim.
But those were modest temperature fluctuations of about 0.5 - 1.0 degrees. It also reflects a narrow range of crop varieties.
You are assuming that because crops improved with a moderate increase in temperature this process will continue indefinitely with much greater global increases that could well exceed 4 degree or more in some places. Thats not science its pure assumption, and also lacks commonsense as we know heat eventually becomes stressful for living organisms as a general rule.
Basic biology tells us crops have a band of environmental conditions in which they perform well. The various studies indicate that climate change pushes increasing numbers of crops out of their optimal band and you have not shown in detail where you think their research is wrong.
In terms of "past history" research has found extreme heat has already reduced crop yields as below:
"Researchers for the study, published in the journal Nature, found that drought and extreme heat reduced crop yields by as much as 10% between 1964 and 2007. Extreme cold and floods did not result in a significant reduction in crop production, according to the study."
time.com/4170029/crop-production-extreme-heat-climate-change/
We are pushing the world more and more in this direction. Some crops are of course better at higher temperatures, but a warming climate pushes us into a narrower band of crops, until those themselves become stressed.
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ubrew12 at 10:18 AM on 12 September 2017I was an Exxon-funded climate scientist
DriveBy@2 said: "Do [your]... device(s)... contain plastics? If so, you are sending a demand signal...[to] the oil... industries" Thermoplastics are completely renewable: melt them down and reuse them. Plastics, in general, are long-chain hydrocarbons that can come from many renewable sources. My plastic utensils are made of cornstarch, for example.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:54 AM on 12 September 2017The Trump administration wants to bail out failed contrarian climate scientists
I think that a valid Red/Blue Team debate would be regarding:
"The acceptability of a portion of current day humanity that is already quite fortunate pushing to continue to personally benefit more from the undeniably unsustainable and damaging burning of fossil fuels, an activity that creates costs and challenges and reduced opportunity for Others especially Future Generations"
In fact, the debate could be generalized to more than just the climate change impacts. It could be debating:
"The acceptability of a portion of current day humanity that is already quite fortunate pushing to continue to personally benefit more from any unsustainable and damaging activity"
With Unsustainable including any activity that produces accumulating negative impacts on the planet's living life sustaining environment like "too rapidly harvesting any renewable resource" or any accumulating impacts, impacts made at rates faster than the environment can neutralize them.
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Kiwiiano at 07:34 AM on 12 September 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #36
It probably wouldn't matter even if it took a direct hit. Mar-a-Lago is reputedly the most hurricane-resistant building in Florida, the original owner was paranoid about that. Besides, last time it was damaged, Trump put in a $500,000 insurance claim for this & that, even though subsequent examination revealed only some trees blown over and a swimming pool full of sand. Presumably they were VERY valuable trees or a very large swimming pool. Yeah, right!
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NorrisM at 07:01 AM on 12 September 2017Medieval Warm Period was warmer
michael sweet and eclectic
Thanks for the information.
Basically, what you are saying is that although there were these blips both up (MWP) and down (LIA) they in no way compare to the rise since 1800 or the more extreme rise since 1950. It is hard to tell looking at these small graphs how much the rate has increased since 1950. Is there a large graph that provides this? I have to admit that I have not first searched all the IPCC reports to locate one.
Moderator Response:[JH] NorrisM: You would benefit greatly by reading the Intermediate version of this article and by watching the Denial 101x video appended to it.
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Alchemyst at 06:47 AM on 12 September 2017The DENIAL101x temperature tool
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
It looks fantastic. This is my first time logged in to the website. I am using a Samsung galaxy to play with it and do not seem to get enough resolution between the spots to identify the weather stations where I live.
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chrisatki at 02:44 AM on 12 September 2017CO2 lags temperature
What do we know about the mechanisms that lead to cooling and reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and oceans?
Moderator Response:[TD] Orbital cycles eventually reduce the insolation of the northern hemisphere, reversing their earlier increase of insolation that triggered warming that resulted in CO2 increase. Ice and snow in that region melt later and less, thereby increasing albedo, cooling the oceans, and the cooler oceans increase their CO2 by pulling it from the atmosphere. Also, as ice and snow retreat, more rocks are exposed, increasing the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by rock weathering.
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John Hartz at 02:38 AM on 12 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
Over the past couple of weeks, I have posted links to the following articles about the climate change-hurricane connection on the SkS Facebook page.
Did Climate Change Intensify Hurricane Harvey? by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Aug 27, 2017
Climate change did not “cause” Harvey, but it’s a huge part of the story by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 28, 2017
Could Hurricane Harvey Deal A Fatal Blow To Climate Change Skepticism? by Jared Keller, Pacific Standard, Aug 28, 2017
Harvey Shows How Planetary Winds Are Shifting by Eric Roston, Bloomberg News, Aug 30, 2017
Does Harvey Represent a New Normal for Hurricanes? by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Aug 29, 2017
Katrina. Sandy. Harvey. The debate over climate and hurricanes is getting louder and louder by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Aug 30, 2917
What Hurricane Harvey says about risk, climate and resilience by Andrew Dressler, Daniel Cohan & Katharine Hayhoe. The Conversation US, Sep 1, 2017
Three things we just learned about climate change and big storms: Can the lessons of Harvey save us? by Paul Rosenberg, Salon, Sep 4, 2017
Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Sep 5, 2017
Harvey and climate change: why it won't change minds by Amy Harder, Axios, Sep 5, 2017
Hurricane Harvey's aftermath could see pioneering climate lawsuits, Analysis by Sebastien Malo, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Sep 5, 2017
On Climate, Hurricanes, And Growth by Joseph Majkut, Niskanen Center, Aug 31, 2017
First Harvey, now Irma. Why are so many hurricanes hitting the U.S.? by Nisikan Akpan, PBS News Hour, Sep 6, 2017
The science behind the U.S.’s strange hurricane ‘drought’ — and its sudden end by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Sep 7, 2017
Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes ever: what we know by Brian Resnick, Science & Health, Vox, Sep 7, 2017
6 Questions About Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change by Sabrina Shankman, InsideClimate News, Sep 6, 2017
President Trump, hurricanes Harvey and Irma are sending you a message, Opinion by Andrés Oppenheimer, Miami Herald, Sep 7, 2017
What We Know about the Climate Change–Hurricane Connection by Michael E. Mann, Thomas C. Peterson & Susan Joy Hassol, Scientific American, Sep 8, 2017
As Hurricanes Irma and Harvey Slam the U.S., Climate Deniers Remain Steadfast by Marianne Lavelle, InsideClimate News, Sep 8, 2017
Ask the Experts: How Did 2 Such Powerful Hurricanes Occur Back to Back? by Annie Sneed, Scientific American, Sep 7, 2017
Another Way Climate Change Might Make Hurricanes Worse by Faye Flam, Bloomberg News, Sep 8, 2017
Will Irma Finally Change the Way We Talk About Climate? by David Wallace-Wells, Daily Intelligencer, New York Magazine, Sep 9, 2017
Irma and Harvey lay the costs of climate change denial at Trump’s door by Bob Ward, The Observer/Guardian, Sep 9, 2017
Hurricane Irma Linked to Climate Change? For Some, a Very ‘Insensitive’ Question. by Lisa Friedman, Climate, New York Times, Sep 11, 2017
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NorrisM at 02:30 AM on 12 September 2017New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
michael sweet at 83 on "Trump country costs" blog
I now understand why you commented that there have been questions raised about the cost estimates in the Jacobson study. In the interests of balance, I would have hoped that you would have been more clear on how much this study has now been put into question so recently.
My specific information (although first highlighted by a reread of the Shellenberger article in Foreign Affairs referenced earlier) comes from a recent Scientific American blog which can be found here: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/landmark-100-percent-renewable-energy-study-flawed-say-21-leading-experts/
The Scientific American blog states that the National Academy of Sciences in a June, 2017 paper, authored by 21 leading energy researchers, has made a "scathing critique" of Jacobson's analysis and found that the analysis “used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions.”
The largest error is found in Jacobson's calculations as to how existing and future hydro could provide the "mixed grid" (buffering) to support wind and solar power when they were not available. Here is the comment from Scientific American:
"The most glaring of which is the assumption that U.S. hydroelectric dams could add turbines and transformers to produce 1,300 gigawatts of electricity instantaneously — equivalent to over 16 times the current U.S. hydroelectric capacity of 80 gigawatts. A previous study by the U.S. Department of Energy found the maximum capacity that could be added is just 12 gigawatts — leaving a 1,288 gigawatt deficit, or the equivalent of about 1000 large nuclear or coal power plants running at full power."
So, as recommended by this article, it would seem a great deal of work remains to be done to determine how we can move from fossil fuels to a source of reliable clean energy. This article suggests many avenues including a continued examination of nuclear power.
I would like to discuss EROI and the Weissbach paper and criticisms by Raugei et al. My plan is to use this stream as well.
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NorrisM at 02:07 AM on 12 September 2017New study finds that climate change costs will hit Trump country hardest
michael sweet @ 83
I will take your suggestion and move further comments on the costs of renewable energy to your article that was originally posted based upon the Jacobson study. Just tried to "link" things and accidentally deleted my comments before posting them so I will not try that again!
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John Hartz at 23:45 PM on 11 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
The article linked to by SingletonEngineer has been repeatedly cited and linked to by more than one mainstream climate scientist who has been interviewed by the media about the climate change-hurricane* connection in recent articles about Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Katia.
Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results posted on the website of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). It was last revised on Aug 30, 2017.
*North Atlantic basin only.
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John Hartz at 23:13 PM on 11 September 2017Climate's changed before
NorrisM, Electric & Michael Sweet:
Please take any further discussion of the Medieval Warm Period to the thread of the SkS Rebuttal aricle, How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?
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Tom13 at 23:02 PM on 11 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
www.soils4teachers.org/files/s4t/k12outreach/tx-state-soil-booklet.pdf
Red # 39
Black gumbo soil is a clay based soil, with very low permeability which is what I meant by not being very absorbent. This quality of the soil is well known by the locals. This type of soil is not a very common soil type. It is located primarily in a narrow stretch from north of dallas south through the houston area.
Moderator Response:[JH] Thank you. What is the permeability index of this soil compared to asphalt and concrete?
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Eclectic at 20:17 PM on 11 September 2017Climate's changed before
NorrisM @566 , thank you for pointing out the Chinese multi-proxy historical data study, published only 5 weeks ago (and receiving a mention last month in WattsUpWithThat & other websites too).
I haven't accessed the full paper, but the Abstract & Conclusion & a temperature chart (per the Chinese Academy of Sciences).
There were two noteworthy temperature rises shown in the China region, peaking at around year 1100 CE and the second at around 1250 CE. The peaks were (respectively) 0.4 degrees and 0.5 degrees above the 1851-1950 mean. In other words they were quite low relative to current world temperatures. And judging per my eyecrometer, those and the other minor peaks/troughs show only small excursion (from the mean) and showed rather poor temporal correlation with the Mann et al (2008) peaks/troughs — but of course I would be happy to bow to a more rigorous mathematical analysis of that point.
All in all, there seems to be nothing very startling (or upsetting to mainstream climate science) in the new Chinese study. Even the "quick to trumpet incompatibilities" WUWT has had little to say about it; and nor was there anything insightful/intelligent/relevant to be found in the attached WUWT comments column [ but no surprise there ;-) ].
As I mentioned in post #565, neither the LIA or MWP "ripples" can detract from the AGW tsunami.
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RedBaron at 17:05 PM on 11 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
Tom13,
Houston's soil is a vertisol. (Houston black gumbo) It actually can absorb up to 12 times its volume in water.
However because it swells and shrinks so much from changes in water, it actually has a pretty poor infiltration rate. It swells shut the pore spaces and channels required to infiltrate rapidly.
We can fix the soil though:
The Soil
Science Society of America defines a claypan as,
“A dense, compact, slowly permeable layer in the
subsoil having a much higher clay content than
the overlying material, from which it is separated
by a sharply defined boundary. Claypans are
usually hard when dry, and plastic and sticky
when wet.” Claypan layers hinder root growth
into the soil, are acidic (pH <5.0), and may
contain toxic levels of aluminum.
The roots of eastern gamagrass contain
aerenchyma tissue, which is tissue with air
passages (Alberts, 1997). Roots with aerenchyma
are spongy, with large holes formed by cells either
pulling apart or disintegrating. These holes run
longitudinally through the roots. They enable
roots in flooded soil to transport air from the
aboveground parts of the plant. W. Doral Kemper,
retired ARS scientist, explains “aerenchyma
tissue enables roots to survive and punch through
the claypan layer when it’s wet, the only time it’s
soft enough to be penetrated. These roots live less
than 2 years. But when they die, they decompose
slowly and help hold channels open for new
generations of roots, providing gamagrass with
continued access to water in and below the clay
pan.”[1] -
RedBaron at 16:48 PM on 11 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
Digby Scorgie,
The key elements in SRI are Mycorrhizal fungi and methanotrophs. Both of which need the beds to dry out to grow.
As far as wholesale change, yes it is happening. India's rice revolution
How Millions of Farmers are Advancing Agriculture For Themselves
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SingletonEngineer at 16:24 PM on 11 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
On further reflection, it appears that NOAA is suggesting that frequency is essentially constant and intensity is (may be?) increasing over time.
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SingletonEngineer at 16:19 PM on 11 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
This is in response to the unfolding disasters in the Carribean and Florida and the fact that this thread is a little out of date.
Recent relevant update from NOAA:
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
It seems that fresh data and recent analysis haven't changed things much.
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NorrisM at 16:04 PM on 11 September 2017Climate's changed before
Moderator
Here is the cite requested:
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, August 2017, Volume 34, Issue 8, pp 941–951
Quansheng Ge et al., Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract
This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3°C and 0.7°C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56° ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD 1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China. -
Thiristaer at 15:37 PM on 11 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
NorrisM @ 29
&
nigelj @ 32
"The IPCC say theres no clear evidence of whether hurricanes have got worse so far, but the problem is hurricanes are not that common and records of intensity are rough."
In other words, to assert that the IPCCs predictions cannot be trusted is like saying no one should have believed Eratosthenes' ( 276 BC - 194 BC ) calculations regarding the circumference because the Magellanic Voyage would not taken place for almost anoth 1,500 years.
Quite simply, even though seeing is believeing and believing is seeing, understanding allows us to believe that which cannot be seen.
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Digby Scorgie at 15:33 PM on 11 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
RedBaron @17
Thanks for the links. Part 1 says that it works. Parts 2 and 3 describe how. There don't seem to be dramatic differences as in no-tilling with conservation agriculture. The biggest difference to my untutored eye was the emphasis on not flooding the rice fields during the critical period, but just keeping the plants moist.
I conclude that there are all these vastly better methods of farming, they would be a considerable help in mitigating climate change, they are being implemented in a small way in various countries, but that wholesale change to these methods is not a priority.
P.S. Use of the word "singularly" in the videos is wrong; it should be "singly". I also can't stand the background music, but I suppose my saying so will just earn me strange looks!
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Digby Scorgie at 13:07 PM on 11 September 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #36
I see that Irma missed Mar-a-Lago. Damn!
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