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Digby Scorgie at 11:20 AM on 4 August 2017Underground magma triggered Earth’s worst mass extinction with greenhouse gases
So an increase of 6 or 7 degrees gets us a mass extinction, whereas a decrease of about 5 degrees gets us an Ice Age. Humanity doesn't have much wiggle room!
To put it in context, then, the 2 degrees of Paris is about a third of a mass extinction and the projected 4 degrees by the end of the century is two-thirds of a mass extinction.
Oh, and you have to note, kmoyd, that under business as usual the temperature passes through 4 degrees at the end of the century on its way to 6 degrees, which is a full mass extinction.
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scaddenp at 07:50 AM on 4 August 2017Study finds human influence in the Amazon's third 1-in-100 year drought since 2005
Hmm. I would say the effect of global warming on ENSO is unsettled science, and while current reviews (eg Huang and Xie 2015) favour more frequent El Nino and more extremes of both, I dont see support for a permanent El NIno. Given modeller concerns about how well models produce ENSO behaviour, I wouldnt jump to conclusions yet.
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Alexandre at 06:34 AM on 4 August 2017Study finds human influence in the Amazon's third 1-in-100 year drought since 2005
This paper based on climate models suggests that with further warming we should have a permanent El Nino-like weather behaviour, making the Amazon basin drier and the La Plata basin (further south) wetter.
On top of that, the forest cover is also important to bring water from the coast to the inner continent. (here, for instance)
We're inflicting damage on both fronts.
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nigelj at 06:17 AM on 4 August 2017Explainer: California’s new ‘cap-and-trade’ scheme to cut emissions
Swayseeker @3
Your idea is to plant palm oil trees in California to absorb CO2 and use this as carbon offset credits to make money.
This doesnt make much sense to me. Palm oil trees do not have special, particularly large abilities to absorb CO2.
California is currently intensively farmed, and a huge producer of fruits and crops and It wouldnt make much sense to replace this with palm oil trees. These existing crops have to be grown somewhere.
And I dont think there would be millions of acres just lying vacant just to plant palm oil trees. There may be steep, unused areas where more forests could be grown.
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MA Rodger at 06:09 AM on 4 August 2017Sea Level Isn't Level: Ocean Siphoning, Levered Continents and the Holocene Sea Level Highstand
JohnWChristensen.
You question @14 was "whether siphoning has been the only or major factor, as we have plenty of research indicating that ice sheets and glaciers have grown over the past 2-3 thousand years - until about 200 years ago. ... Therefore, it would seem reasonable to assume that growth in glacier and ice sheet volume since the holoscene high stand has caused a decline in mean sea level, and that also the ocean sea bed should have been lifting in response to the reduced ocean volume."
If we are talking "major" factors, there is but one. The highstand is the result of siphoning. The literature is still trying to nail down the timing of the final reductions in ice volumes (eg see Bradley et al 2016) which are greatly more significant than any increases in ice volume through the late holocene. Changes in sea level through recent millennia have been found to be very small. See for instance Kopp et al (2016) whose Fig1a looks like this:-
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Mike Evershed at 03:07 AM on 4 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Sorry - should have added that I found the points about Berkley Earth starting from a sceptical position and the lower risk of confirmation bias around adjustments which are not theory breaking to be good ones.
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Mal Adapted at 03:00 AM on 4 August 2017Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study
Solely for the sake of clear thinking ;^), I'm back to respond to Tom Curtis's criticism:
In your first example of the use of "the tragedy of the commons" by an ecologist, that by Berger-Tal et al, they get the use wrong even by Hardin's sense. In Hardin's sense, the 'tragedy of the commons' involves over exploitation of a resource due to common ownership.
While I cited Berger-Tal et al. merely to demonstrate that 'Tragedy of the Commons' was a current term of art in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology as well as in Economics, TomC's specific criticisms may appear reasonable to non-specialists. This review article I just came across is more credible, from scientific metaliteracy if nothing else: DJ Rankin et al. 2007, The Tragedy of the Commons in Evolutionary Biology, Trends Ecol Evol 22 (12), 643-651.
I also wanted to respond to this argument of Tom's:
My point is that Hardin's use suggests that there is only one possible tragic result from use of the commons - something which is definitely false as shown by the tragic results of enclosure. In doing so it belittles the actual historical tragedy in favour of a hypothetical tragedy whose rhetorical use is to justify replicating the historical tragedy. That it has that rhetorical use does not mean it cannot, and has not been used by others in careful analysis.
I presume Tom is aware that Hardin wrote in 1998:
To judge from the critical literature, the weightiest mistake in my synthesizing paper was the omission of the modifying adjective "unmanaged."
Now, I have no personal motive to defend Garrett J. Hardin over anyone else in history, but I'm unwilling to speculate on what he was thinking in 1968. By his own words (30 years later, to be sure), he did not intend to say that the entire class of problems labeled TotCs, including global human population growth, could only have tragic endings. So why did Stephen M. Gardiner assert in 2001 that Hardin had said exactly that? (Paywalled, but this is from the first page):
In two celebrated and widely anthologized articles, as well as several books, the biologist Garrett Hardin claims (a) that the world population problem has a certain structure: it is a tragedy of the commons; and,(b) that, given this structure, the only tenable solutions involve either coercion or immense human suffering.
IMO Gardiner's argument is a straw man, illuminating his agenda more than Hardin's. Absent probative contrary evidence, we may assume even Hardin sincerely abhorred both coercion and immense human suffering. Regardless, he's not responsible for what he did not say, nor for what other people say he did. Would you have it any other way?
Summing up my position: it's evident that 'Tragedy of the Commons', as a term of disciplinary art for diverse, partially-overlapping classes of problems, is not widely considered offensive by Economists or Ecologists. Now that the term is established in both fields, efforts to replace it appear largely quixotic.
OTOH 8^D: some economists, Ostrom inter alia, have chosen 'Drama of the Commons' as equally mnemonic and more concise, by including non-tragic endings. Since April, I've been using it on appropriate bloggy threads, when I know my audience can unpack it. Ostrom's prestige may give it wings. I'll keep my eye on it 8^).
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Mike Evershed at 02:33 AM on 4 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Thanks Guys. In view of the discussion above, I would agree that the global temperature record (sea and land) is the better measure, and because adjustments to the sea surface data rduce the long term growth trend and there are several groups working on the problem of past reconstruction, the risk of confirmation bias causing significant problems is small. That leaves the issue of "is the warming anthropogenic" (but that is for another thread and another time). Thanks especially for the courteous replies to what has been an attempt to genuinely explore the issue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:20 AM on 4 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
Haze@7,
A nation that has developed a large population of people eager to live a life in Denial/Delusion has no future. It can only have perceptions of temporary regional popularity and profitability.
And humanity must have a future. So, to paraphrase John Stuart Mill in "On Liberty": The grown-ups on this amazing planet whose thoughts and actions are based on rational consideration of the best awareness and understanding of what is going on to sustainably correct/develop things for the better future of all of humanity (John Stuart Mill's "...moved by rational consideration of distant motives...") will have to act to protect the future of humanity by disappointing and angering those who have grown-up wanting to believe whatever they want to excuse what they want to get away with.
As John Stuart Mill stated in "On Liberty" (my inserted wording to apply it to a subset of humanity), “If (a) society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, (that) society has itself to blame for the consequences.”
The unacceptability of burning fossil fuels, and the likely need for leadership to act to correct incorrect damaging unsustainable development in the marketplace, was internationally established in the 1972 Stockholm Conference.
The lack of leadership to address the problem was plainly pointed out in the follow-up 1987 "Our Common Future" which includes the following blunt statement about the failure of business and government leadership (because it is driven by popularity and profitability - my suggested understanding).
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (and any future improvement of them made for Good Reason with new awareness and better understanding) clearly need to become the most popular (the highest level) measure of acceptability of the actions of leadership in business and government.
So what you are pointing out requires action by you directed at your leaders and your circle of influence. Climate scientists are continuing to expand awareness and improve the understanding of what is going on in their field. What their continued efforts have done is expose the fatal flaws of a system that is based on popularity and profitability allowing people to develop unsustainable delusions of prosperitry and opportunity.
The reality is that many of those who have tried to continue to develop on the unsustainable damaging pathways that can be regionally temporarily popular and profitable will suffer the greatest required change to their "incorrectly developed perceptions and beliefs" (easily perceived as a personal harm to be feared - but incorrect to be thought of that way).
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JohnWChristensen at 23:33 PM on 3 August 2017Sea Level Isn't Level: Ocean Siphoning, Levered Continents and the Holocene Sea Level Highstand
For the moderator: I am not questioning AGW or the present net mass loss situation in Antarctica or elsewhere.
My question was if the glacier and ice sheet growth until about 200 years ago have been considered in the sea level model, or if land ice volume of the period since the holoscene high stand was assumed to be constant?
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Swayseeker at 22:53 PM on 3 August 2017Explainer: California’s new ‘cap-and-trade’ scheme to cut emissions
Well California can be hot, but it is often dry and would not be considered to be like a tropical forest where oil palm trees can be easily grown. But yeseterday I found out that there are oil palm seeds suitable for colder and drier climates. Possibly with rain enhancement (see for example UAEREP on Facebook) and these seeds California could make a lot of money taking carbon dioxide out of the air by growing palm oil trees. See also https://www.facebook.com/groups/RainForDesertPalmOil/ for rain enhancement methods I do not want to repeat (posted before) and oil palm seeds for drier and colder conditions.
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JohnWChristensen at 21:35 PM on 3 August 2017Sea Level Isn't Level: Ocean Siphoning, Levered Continents and the Holocene Sea Level Highstand
Thank you for a great article Rob!
I have a question regarding the change in sea level since the holoscene high stand 5-6,000 years ago, as is referenced in this statement:
The fall in global sea level occured once glacial meltwater from the gigantic land-based ice sheets stopped and seawater was siphoned away to fill collapsing seafloor regions.
I question whether siphoning has been the only or major factor, as we have plenty of research indicating that ice sheets and glaciers have grown over the past 2-3 thousand years - until about 200 years ago:
Alaska - Wrangel glaciers increasing in four periods in past 2,300 years:
Norway - holoscene glacier max volume reached around 1750AD after minium reached about 6,000 years ago:
Antarctica - general ice sheet volume increase during holoscene. I know this NASA research is being contested with regards to current net volume change, but have not seen discussion to dispute that Antarctica ice sheet volume has grown during the holoscene overall:
In Greenland the now disintegrated Jacobshavn glacier was estimated to be about 2,000 years old by DMI, and research in the Alps as well as for southern hemisphere glaciers similarly indicate growth in most recent millenia now changing into retreat.
Therefore, it would seem reasonable to assume that growth in glacier and ice sheet volume since the holoscene high stand has caused a decline in mean sea level, and that also the ocean sea bed should have been lifting in response to the reduced ocean volume.
Has land-based ice volume changes since the holoscene high stand been considered for this model?
Best regards,
John
Moderator Response:[DB] "this NASA research is being contested...Antarctica ice sheet volume has grown"
Your linked NASA article from 2015 discusses Jay Zwally's research. This is NASA's (the employer of Zwally) current position on land-based ice sheet mass losses:
"Data from NASA's GRACE satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica (upper chart) and Greenland (lower) have been losing mass since 2002. Both ice sheets have seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009." (Source: GRACE satellite data through August 2016)
Note that Zwally's data comes from a few locations in Antarctica, and not the entire continent (unlike GRACE). Zwally's data also ends in 2008 (also unlike GRACE).
Further, Zwally even warned that some might misrepresent his research.
Indeed, the latest research shows that losses on West Antarctica exceed gains in East Antarctica (gains in East Antarctica are 3 times smaller than found by Zwally's research).
(link to larger image)
Hot-linked and shortened URL's. -
Haze at 18:30 PM on 3 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
Moderator @4 in my defence I did state the opening paragraph was from The Australian and then used inverted commas to delineate the opening paragraph from the Australian and although I did not give a link I did state the source. I will be more careful should the occasion arise in the future to ensure I abide by the rules.
OPOF@5
"What a person wants to believe is what they will believe and claim to be reality. If there is actual evidence/better understanding that contradicts their belief and they resist better understanding the matter then they are in deliberate Denial."
Your definition fits many of the commenters to The Australian and is why I believe that the report will gain traction with many readers.
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nigelj at 12:50 PM on 3 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Confirmation bias. Of course there is always some risk of this, and its normal to look for evidence that supports an idea, but this doesn't dominate things. People are aware of the risk of confirmation bias, and contrary evidence will be thrust on people by other scientists wanting attention. Science has a habit of bringing all the evidence out in the open.
The point is the global land ocean temperature trend over the last 100 years has been adjusted down, and for sound reasons. This is strong evidence that confirmation bias has not corrupted the temperature data. I would suggest conclusive evidence for all practical purposes.
You would think this simple thing would end the debate on the issue, but no the denialists will rant on about it for decades and decades.
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scaddenp at 11:45 AM on 3 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
So what is the bet the US programme will accelerate when China and India have MSR on stream? India should commission a Thorium fast breeder to feed a convention nuclear plant later this year. I suspect China will the race to full Thorium cycle.
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DPiepgrass at 10:36 AM on 3 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
What happened to thorium reactors? They were supposed to solve all the usual nuclear problems.
@nigelj I've been following thorium & Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) with interest, and my impression of the biggest problem is that it's hard to get investors - unlike renewables there are no subsidies for this, and it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to build and certify a prototype, legally acquire highly-enriched uranium to jump-start a thorium reaction, etc. A secondary problem in the U.S. specifically is that the NRC has to certify all reactors, and no one knows quite how the NRC will decide to regulate thorium/MSRs. Plus, anyone building a new kind of reactor has to pay for all the NRC's work. These factors create a "first-mover disadvantage" where no one wants to incur the expenses of being the first to build a Thorium reactor. Work is definitely moving along, but it's slower than it could have been, and the first reactors will probably be anywhere but the U.S.
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Tom13 at 09:11 AM on 3 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
http://www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722
www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722/suppl/DCSupplemental
www.pnas.org/content/114/26/E5021.extract
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28630353
100% renewables powering the US by 2050 ? - I have provided likes to PNAS critique of Jacobson along with his response. I have to go with Rust on this one.
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nigelj at 09:04 AM on 3 August 2017Explainer: California’s new ‘cap-and-trade’ scheme to cut emissions
I tend to echo comments in 1 above.
California's efforts to cut emissions should be applauded of course. I think they are also correct to have a mix of policies aimed at this.
However I still have lingering doubts about emissions trading schemes. They make good theoretical sense of course, and worked for sulphate problems several years ago, but seem to have a history of political meddling relating to carbon emissions. This has sometimes lead to tradable credits dropping in value and becoming useless, and the whole scheme is based on these tradable credits having the exact right value.
The following article is a good critique and also promotes a revenue neutral carbon tax as being less susceptible to manipulation.
However Europe has had some problems with cap and trade, but also some reasonable results as well, so its not a simple thing.
However whatever system is used, for it to work it needs to be open, transparent, and easy to scrutinies any manipulation. Perhaps any cap and trading or carbon tax scheme should be run by a non partisan independent body to reduce politicans doing dubious politically motivated favours for preferred industries etc.
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John S at 08:19 AM on 3 August 2017Explainer: California’s new ‘cap-and-trade’ scheme to cut emissions
It’s good that California affirmatively resolved the uncertainty as to whether its carbon pricing would continue past 2020. At the same time it’s a disappointment they couldn’t do better. It was only last year, as reported by your Dana Nuccitelli in the Guardian, that California passed AJR 43, urging the national government to pass a revenue neutral carbon tax.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/aug/29/california-has-urged-president-obama-and-congress-to-tax-carbon .
And, earlier this year, there were reports that, under SB 775, CA was about to revolutionize climate policy by replacing cap-and-trade with something much better, closer to fee and dividend, as advocated for many years by James Hansen, Katherine Hayhoe and Citizens Climate Lobby, and, more recently, by the Climate Leadership Council.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/5/3/15512258/california-revolutionize-cap-and-trade
Why would this have been so much better?
The key point is a commitment to increase carbon prices predictability, in perpetuity (in other words until they get the job done of eliminating fossil fuel burning). This means all (or most, see below re environmental justice), of the revenue must be given back to citizens as dividends; otherwise taxpayers, and the economy, will not tolerate the extra taxes.
To be clear, every Californian would have received rising dividends compensating for the drain on their budgets from rising prices.
The big hit, the home run, as you baseball fans would say, is that predictably ever-rising fossil fuel prices would energize innovation and increase the net present value, hence feasibility and chance of success, of all long-lead-time and long-life projects, e.g. changing some of your old steam district heating systems to modern low temperature hot water systems, thereby enabling use of non-fossil sources, building retro-fits and strategic changes in transportation and industry.
It would protect trade exposed industries and prevent “leakage” by border-adjustment taxes (BAT’s). This is much more selective than giving away allowances holus bolus, which is typical in cap-and-trade schemes, such as ours here in Ontario. (Just for fun, some of us are imagining Trump’s reaction if Canada enacts wide-ranging BAT’s against the US next year because we will have a national carbon price and the US probably won’t.)
SB 775 would not have allowed off-sets. I could argue both sides of that one, but would have thought the environmental justice groups would fight for it, having seen some of the terrible industrial urban landscapes down there. But these were the same people who sank a revenue neutral carbon tax proposal in Washington state, hence some special effort to help vulnerable communities would have been wise (better than grandiose plans for bullet trains anyway.)
Perhaps the main opportunity lost, as expressed by David Victor in the referenced article, is the positive, leadership impact on the rest of the word – because, yes, we were watching. -
One Planet Only Forever at 08:07 AM on 3 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
Haze@#4,
I would argue that the following is a better understanding of the claim that Perception is Reality:
What a person wants to believe is what they will believe and claim to be reality. If there is actual evidence/better understanding that contradicts their belief and they resist better understanding the matter then they are in deliberate Denial.
Everyone cannot be free to believe whatever they want when there is independently verifiable evidence/experience related to the matter. Spiritual beliefs are one of the few items where everyone truly can be equally correct while having seemingly inconsistent beliefs (no matter how numerous or powerful a spiritual group of people claiming that their way of believing is the only correct one has become).
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scaddenp at 07:29 AM on 3 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
And further to my earlier comment, there is plenty of people out there with hostile views and, for fossil fuel companies where proposed climate action is a threat to shareholder value, the funds and scientific muscle to create their own homogenized temperature series. They could also challenge the papers that details the homogenization methods if they could find errors. The lack of any such papers would suggest that noone has found a real problem. I cant imagine Exxonmobile pushing a paper "the scientists were right" if they did such a study (and we know their scientists have looked). All we get is innuendo which sits fine for an audience with their own ideological biases seem to have shut down their critical faculties if they ever had them.
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kmoyd at 01:30 AM on 3 August 2017Underground magma triggered Earth’s worst mass extinction with greenhouse gases
is there any way to tell when during the increasing temperature rise the extinctions started. I'm concerned deniers will use the fact that the temperature rise was 6 degrees while our business-as-usual estimate is "only" 4.2 degrees means we don't have to worry.
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Eclectic at 21:38 PM on 2 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
Haze @#4 ,
polar ice is melting away at 100's of Gigatons per year; temperate-zone glaciers are disappearing rapidly; sea levels are rising ever faster; global surface temperatures are setting new highs; and plants and animals are altering their behaviour accordingly.
That is reality.
Those who think "reality" exists only in their own minds — are, by definition, insane. They can attempt to resist reality for a while, but not in the long term.
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MA Rodger at 21:15 PM on 2 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Mike Evershed @443.
Your quote concerns confirmation bias generally and is not specific to the scientific process. Nickerson (1998) 'Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises' does address things scientific (no mention of climatology) and a little more fully than he does witch-hunting. As I see this as off-topic, I will be brief.
The accounts given of Conservatism among scientists, Theory persistence, Overconfidence and Unity in science I would suggest apply to the AGW denialists rather than the AGW proponents. Science works hard to root out Confirmation Bias. I see no difficulty in taking on board an aberrant theory that would disprove AGW, but only if it has merit. AGW denialists cannot say the same for the science they attempt to overturn, science that does have merit. Yet they do have a role in science (but not in public), using their denialist viewpoint to rattle the cage, but in doing this they have failed to produce any aberrant theories that have any merit, so far.
Note that the examples given by Nickerson are about big issues that make-or break theories. (I should say here that I am not entirely happy with some of his accounts.) As the adjustments to global temperature series we discuss here do not lead to any make-or-break situations, I don't see there is a situation where confirmation bias would begin to operate. But looking from a denialist viewpoint, chipping away at the temperature record does assist the anti-AGW arguments, not least by spreading doubt over the entirety of all temperature records.
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scaddenp at 19:36 PM on 2 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
It is also extremely hard to understand quite point you are trying to make. It feels like a fairly desparate attempt to find a reason to be doubtful of the temperature record with no actual basis at all. Do you comment on JPL sites about the dark side of the consensus on gravity might result in satellites off course? Or complain that maybe it is okay to build houses on faultlines because after all the geological consensus on earthquakes might be subject to confirmation bias?
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scaddenp at 17:56 PM on 2 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
"however as all of them subscribe to the consensus view"
Um, this isnt politics. You arrive at a consensus you dont start with one. Also BEST was started by Muller as was skeptical of the record with Koch funding. Anthony Watts said “prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong.” That was until it confirmed the existing temperature records. So definitely not "all of them".
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Haze at 16:55 PM on 2 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
My apologies I clearly did not make it clear what I was trying to demonstrate. The first part of my post was a cut and paste of the report in The Australian on Monday August 1.
The second partg was attempting, very badly it seems, to point out that despite the best efforts of SkS to disseminate the facts on AGW, it could not match the number of people who would read the piece in The Australian and possibly be influenced by it . As I wrote, perception is reality and for many readers that piece now may well be reality. Donald Trump by withdrawing from Paris has clearly shown just how well perception can serve to change reality.I hope that explains more clearly the rationale for my post and can only apologise once again for my inadequacies
Moderator Response:[JH] For future reference, please clearly designate direct quotes by explicitly stating and linking to the source and deliniating the material quoted with the use of quotation marks or the blockquote feature. Deliniating quoted material with itlaic font is also acceptable.
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Mike Evershed at 16:47 PM on 2 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
I am grateful for the thoughtful responses of site participants (posts 436 to 442). Michael Sweets reference to Zeke Hausfather's article was particularly helpful and I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel. It looks as though the "denialist" sites are mostly referencing either the land surface air temperature data where revisions to older data do increase the warming trend (but only moderately so) or the modern period adjustments where again they increase the trend (but only slightly so), while sites supporting the consensus focus on the either the sea surface record or the overall record including sea surface temperatures where the adjustments reduce the long term warming trend (and significantly so). As to the questions I have been asked - I don't dispute the climate is warming and I don't think the data adjustments represent fraud - but I am trying to get a handle on how reliable the consensus view is, and on this thread how reliable the warming data is. As to my concern about confirmation bias, I agree that the existence of different groups working on the data problems reduces the risk, however as all of them subscribe to the consensus view, and defend the anthropogenic warming hypothesis the risk of confirmation bias cannot be totally discounted.
To quote an expert in the field: "A great deal of empirical evidence supports the idea that the confirmation bias is extensive and strong and that it appears in many guises. The evidence also supports the view that onceone has taken a position on an issue, one's primary purpose becomes that of defending or justifying that position. This is to say that regardless of whether one's treatment of evidence was evenhanded before the stand was taken, it can become highly biased afterward." http://psy2.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/nickersonConfirmationBias.pdf. Nickersons discussion of confirmation bias in science at the end is particularly interesting - including the observation that the strength of science lies in vigorous challenge to hypotheses.
Moderator Response:[TD] People who are interested in global temperature look at the temperature of the globe. The whole globe. Land and water. Because that is the definition of "global."
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nigelj at 12:06 PM on 2 August 2017Underground magma triggered Earth’s worst mass extinction with greenhouse gases
Changes and problems in global fisheries already happening, due to warming oceans, from research in Nature
science.time.com/2013/05/16/why-warming-oceans-could-mean-dwindling-fish/
Predictions on effects of global warming on fish species, and possible adaptation problems.
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chriskoz at 11:33 AM on 2 August 2017Underground magma triggered Earth’s worst mass extinction with greenhouse gases
Thanks Howard. While rading it a question of PETM was dorming in my head, until it got answered in the last paragraph.
The evidence points that there is a tipping point in a rate of GHG degassing rate triggered by LIP. Life cannot adapt to the changes too fast, past said tipping point. If we can deduce from said evidence that PETM was not fast enough (i.e. did not reach a tipping point to affect most land forms), then the conclusion is: marine lifeforms will be first to go as the result of AGW. We may be mildly confident that AGW rate is at least as fast as PETM, though it may not have reached the scale of PETM which is another important tipping point not discussed here, but in case the required scale is reached lots of marine species may already be doomed. But to determine the vulnerability land species, a comparison it to end-Permian is required but such comparison is difficult I guess.
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mpcwatts at 08:19 AM on 2 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
Some thoughts on why inaction will produce massive disruption based on the simplest analysis of historical record of climate change. Its a tecky, non - climate scientists view. At ....
http://www.impattern.com/Anthropocene.html
Moderator Response:[PS] fixed link. Please learn how to do this yourself with the link tool in the comment editor.
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nigelj at 06:33 AM on 2 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
John S @9
Regarding the John Bates and Karl controvery. The accusations were data fiddling and incorrect process and reported in the daily mail tabloid newspaper.
Karl did nothing wrong. To quote Sheakespeare, much ado about nothing, or in modern terms an empty beat up. Things were all twisted out of context. The temperature adjustments were verified by several independent climate bodies, but the daily mail rant carefully omitted this key fact. The adjustments were also very small, again this was carefully not stated in the daily mail beat up. Bates was also demoted by Karl 2012, so take what you wish from that.
You can get a good picture of it in the following articles
www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-mail-sundays-astonishing-evidence-global-temperature-rise
www.businessinsider.com.au/noaa-climate-data-not-faked-2017-2?r=US&IR=T
Regarding the NASA adjustments, refer to the recent article on this website listed in the left hand margin "Explainer. How data adjustments affect the global temperature record"
There are all sorts of adjustments, but the important thing is the big global land ocean trend raw data from 1900 - 2016 has actually been adjusted down. There is a graph in the article.
Regarding average global temperatures, these are based on weather stations all over the planet. NASA use a couple of thousand. Coverage is good overall, but with gaps in central africa, parts of the oceans, and only a few stations in very northern and antarctic regions. Nasa give technical analysis of why this is sufficient for a meaningful average, and this is on their website somewhere.
Just google "images for global weather stations". Here is one I looked at. Im not a climate scientist, just interested in the issues, but its pretty intuitively obvious there are plenty of weather stations over enough of the planet.
Moderator Response:[PS] please put further responses on temperature record on this thread. You can provide a link to your response here.
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MA Rodger at 05:59 AM on 2 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
Ooops.
Continuing from premature submission above.
BEST & HADCRUT do not use the Karl SST data yet the warmth of recent years is still there.
BEST - 2016 +1.06ºC, 2017 +0.96ºC, 2010 +0.79ºC, 2015 +0.76ºC.
HadCRUT - 2016 +0.90ºC, 2017 +0.75ºC, 2015 +0.70ºC, 2010 +0.61ºC.
Even the satellite data of UAH & RSS show 2017 as the 4th hottest start-to-the-year on record (after 2016, 1998 & 2010), this with TLT measurements far more influenced by the El Nino wobbles which boost 1998 and 2010 above 2017. They certainly do not show "a flat line over the period." The video simply has no merit.
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MA Rodger at 05:44 AM on 2 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
John S @9,
The criticism of Karl et a; (2015) you describe is six-months old and dealt with here. The paper has stood the test of time and it is not just NOAA and NASA SAT records that show the first half of 2017 to be the second warmest on record and the warmest non-El-Nino Jan-to-June by some way.
NOAA - 2016 +1.07ºC, 2017 +0.91ºC, 2015 +0.86ºC.2010 +0.78ºC.
NASA - 2016 +1.10ºC, 2017 +0.94ºC, 2015 +0.82ºC, 2010 +0.78ºC.
BEST - 2016 +1.06ºC, 2017 +0.96ºC, 2010 +0.79ºC.
BEST - 2016 +1.06ºC, 2017 +0.96ºC, 2010 +0.79ºC.
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John S at 04:37 AM on 2 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
I just finished viewing a doc on You-Tube entitled “Climategate II Explained – NOAA Whistleblower – Data Manipulation – Global Warming Hoax” by Larouche PA published recently. Wikipedia’s account of Larouche PAC seems entirely economic, no climate change involvement indicated. The gist of the 72 minute lecture by an unidentified (?spokeperson for Larouche PAC?) was that ““NOAA breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.” This was by Karl et all (2015) that claimed warming rate was twice what prior versions showed ( source Anthony Watts October (2015) and argued that truth was shown by satellite data from both UAH and RSS showing a flat line over this period. I know that Anthony Watts is a notorious climate change denial blogger, but rather than just dismissing the whole argument based on its source, I’d rather understand more of the background on this – basically is it true that, as alleged in this doc, NOAA fiddled the data, suppressed any internal dissention and then mysteriously “lost” the data all as revealed by whistleblower John Bates, a 40 year NOAA veteran and eminent climate scientist. I’m well aware that cherry-picking end-points over such a short period is no good way to consider the warming trend and that RSS put out a correction to its earlier data. What I want to know is any specific background on this specific accusation of wrong-doing by Karl et al exposed by Bates..
Later the talk characterizes such antics as typical for climate change advocates, citing the “broken hockey stick” supposedly exposed by McIntyre & MacKitrick in Energy and Environment. I heard Michael Mann’s response that their method was flawed but, again, I’d like to understand this on a deeper level than just “he said, she said”.
It also goes on about NASA supposedly lowering data before 1950 and raising it after 1950 thereby supposedly creating a warming trend. I heard about the correction of “bucket variances” for ocean data but I also thought I’d heard that these NASA adjustments created a lower warming trend not higher – so is the Larouche Pac presentation just a bald-faced lie or is there some more subtle fallacy involved in it?. The same accusation of NASA adjusting data upwards after 1950 was made in another doc on You-Tube, so, on the basis that where there’s smoke, there may be fire, I’m wondering where this story is coming from. I appreciate that adjustments to the temperature record have to be made to produce the best estimate of trend and so this can change retroactively and this fact alone allows the deniers to come in with clod-hopping boots, but as I said above, my understanding was that the net result of these adjustments was a lower warming trend not higher as alleged, so is that just a lie or what?
They also had a more fundamental question which I admit has confused me quite a bit also and that is how it is at all possible to calculate a global average from such a variety of circumstances affecting each temperature measuring device? I saw an explanation on NASA’s web-site of why changes were more reliable to average than absolute values but even so (and even after watching Cowtons’ excellent presentation on Denial 101x) it’s still a baffling subject. Maybe there is a good reference you can give me to read up on this.Moderator Response:[PS] I think you can probably assess the quality of your source when you read the links provided by responders. Bates himself denies any fraud. For more details on how raw temperature data is homogenized, see the myth "Temp record is unreliable". Any further discussion of temperature station homogenization in that thread please.
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chriskoz at 15:48 PM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
TSI value changes from the solar charts by Tom13, reveal the increase from pre-1700 (Maunder minimum the main reason for LIA) and today is 2W/m2 from 1364 to 1366 (1990s studies), or 1.5W/m2 from 1360 to 1361.5 (AR5 - more reliable source). Attenuating this figure of 1.5W/m2 by 4 (sphere vs. disk surface), and by further 30% for average Earth albedo, you get 1.5/4*70% = about +0.3W/m2 solar forcing on Earth surface between LIA and today.
At the same time, human induced forcing reached 2.29W/m2 according to AR5, and upgraded few months ago to 2.5W/m2.
So if you should have a feeling how AGW signal relates to long term natural signals such as "recovering from the effects of little ice age", you have the answer in the numbers above. AGW signal is at least 8 times (would be more perhaps 10 times - 3W/m2 - if we removed temporary effects of aerosols) stronger than "recovery from LIA" signal.
If LIA was so "dramatically cold" according to legendary tales, and natural cycles are to blame for GW we're experiencing according to the deniers, then the numbers above tell a scary story: the AGW is already 10 times stronger than "LIA recovery", although it did not reach equilibrium T yet. Wait for our childern to experience equilibium conditions, and it grows stronger and stronger as we keep burning FF.
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scaddenp at 13:50 PM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
Sigh, this is about difference between precision and accuracy. Precision is 0.01, accuracy 0.2. The question around basis, calibration have been around for a while. Good article here about it and what it does or doesnt matter. When looking for a forcing on climate, then what matters is the change, rather than absolute value.
If you get your information from appinsys and the badly named "friends of science" you will never want for moonshine.
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nigelj at 13:18 PM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
Tom13 @2
I don't think the solar irradiance data would be in the margin of error or it wouldn't even get published would it?
However I recall reading that the data before 2002 is ground measured, and so accuracy is just very average, but since 2002 it is satellite based and very accurate indeed, with a very small margin of error as below. So falling solar irradiance since 2002 does seem to coincide with sharply rising temperatures over the last couple of years at least.
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nigelj at 13:06 PM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
The links at post 2 don't work properly. They go back to this page, but copying and pasting them works ok.
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed
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DrivingBy at 12:27 PM on 1 August 2017Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records
"The data was adjusted, so it's all a giant conspiracy to make it look like it's warming!!!"
The raw, unadjusted data show more warming.
""The data is all fake, it's all a giant conspiracy to make it look like it's warming!!!"
If all of the data is fake (odd that the Great Conspiracy would have started in England in the 19th century), how do you know it's not warming?
"You're a Globalist!!!"
Debating a troll, denier or idiot is like wrestling with a pig.
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DrivingBy at 12:16 PM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
People will believe what they want to believe, and then find or absorb reasons or (more often) things that sound like reasons to make themselves comfortable. We all do this in one realm or another.
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scaddenp at 10:44 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Mike, call me completely unconvinced. We use a number of very complex instruments. Over the years, both accuracy and precision have improved even though the fundimental measurement has not. This is due to ever increasing complexity of processing and correction between raw detection and reported result.
Modern seismic processing has also become increasingly complex. Talk about torturing the data. Dont tell an oil explorer that the uncertainty in the depth to a reflector has increased because all that fancy processing makes errors more likely. Funnily enough scientists actually test this stuff and publish the methodology for everyone to examine.
On the other side, faced with an unappealing set of data, instead of finding fault with the methodology and publishing alternatives, all we find is dark mutterings about scientists motives and accusation of manipulating the data, which shows a laughable ignorance about science, scientists and science funding. Since UHI and SST adjustment corrections (the biggest adjustment to the global surface temperature recored) reduce the warming trend, if scientists are trying to defraud the public, they are making a rotten job of it.
The graphs on the advanced tab also show that adjustments are tiny compared to trend. Are you actually seriously suggesting there is a chance that surface temperatures are not actually warming? Ice melt and sea level rise are also somehow an artifact?
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:13 AM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
JohnthePainter@1
By zooming in on the page then scrolling sideways you can see that average for 1998 is the dot above the orange line.
The hashes on the x-axis are the start of year. And the dots are the annual average shown in the middle of the year. This presention may be confusing to look at, but it is necessary when different averages like monthly, annual, or multi-year are being presented on the same chart.
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Tom13 at 08:26 AM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
A couple of points regarding the Solar irradiance chart. Comparing the High 1362.2 vs the low of 1360.6 is a drop of only .1174%. Comparing the average at the start of the chart (circa 1950) is 1361.4 vs 1361.2 is only a .01469% drop. Isnt the change well below the measurement error range?
The time span is relatively short, The threecharts below covering the period circa 1800-2010 probably give a better perspective.
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part6_SolarEvidence_files/image017.gif
https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5784/22170076646_a855617076_o.jpg
Moderator Response:[RH] Shortened long link.
[PS] Fixed link
[TD] True solar irradiance graphs, with their sources, are in this post.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:22 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
MIke Evershed @ 435: "My point as someone who is scientifically trained is that the more adjustments we make and the more data transformations we perform the greater the risk we run of making errors."
Well, the way to deal with that scientifically is to read the papers that describe the adjustments and transformations, and why they were done the way that they were, and what evidence was presented to support their use.
If you discover a questionable adjustment, and can demonstrate that a different - and equally reasonable - alternate approach provides a significantly different output that affects the conclusions, then point it out. If all you have is "there might be an error, but I don't know where", then all you have is an argument from incredulity. A "greater risk" of making an error does not meant that there is one. (Note: "making an error" is not the same thing as "not everything is known". Knowledge is always incomplete.)
...and anything I've seen presented at WUWT or similar "skeptic" blogs fails the "and equally reasonable" test, because they invariably involve explanations that require overthrowing major fundamentals of physics, cherry-picked data, improper statistical analysis, flawed logic, etc. There is your source of errors.
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michael sweet at 07:15 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Zeke Hausfather, one of the scientists on the Berkely Earth Surface Temperature (funded by the Koch brothers) wrote a detailed discussion of corrections on Carbon Brief. I like his writings since he is obviously very familiar with the data since he publishes on it, he works for skeptics so it is difficult to see him as part of a conspiracy on AGW and his articles are easy to read. You can Google his publications to get peer reviewed discussions of corrections.
Others will give you better references than me so I will probably not post again. Read less "skeptical" material if you want to be informed, WUWT is especially bad.
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johnthepainter at 07:12 AM on 1 August 20172017 is so far the second-hottest year on record thanks to global warming
There's no doubt about the overall argument Dana presents, but the first graph contradicts his claim that "[i]n 1998, there was also more solar energy reaching Earth than there has been in 2017." At least to my aging eyes, 1997 (when the El Niño first appeared) and 1998 are plotted as the two lowest points in the 1990-2000 period, both well below the 2017 point.
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MA Rodger at 05:24 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Rob Honeycutt @438,
Additional to your points gleened from "borish Bob Tisdale," it should be mentioned that the adjusted global land surface air temperature anomalies over their full record do result in increased linear trends relative to their 'raw data' trends but only when calculated over the full record (Bob's figure 1) and importantly all these adjustments that are global in land coverage (note CRUTem4 is a long way from global in land coverage and Bob Tisdale likely misrepresents the raw data it uses); these global land records provide adjusted results that are consistent. Given the adjustment methods are so different, that they give consistent result suggests Mike Evershod's specific worry about errors ("the more adjustments we make and the more data transformations we perform the greater the risk we run of making errors") is unfounded.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:40 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
And, relative to the Bob Tisdale article you referenced...
1) I congradulate you if you can actually get through reading an entire Tisdale article. He's a borish and convoluted writer, at best. Great reading if your purpose is putting yourself to sleep.
2) Most of the charts he's presenting actually support the fact that, for the modern era (post-1960), adjustments do not have a substantive effect on the conclusions of the land data.
3) The bigger challenges are with older sea surface data where methods of collecting the data changed over time. Those adjustments have resulted in lowering the long term temperature trend relative to raw data.
4) I definitely do not understand your rationale on confirmation bias. There are multiple groups processing the data and they're, essentially, ending with results that are in agreement. If there were a significant bias being introduced you'd expect that to be evident across multiple groups. The idea that all the groups could have the same bias, even though they're using different methods, seems extremely unlikely.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:26 AM on 1 August 2017Temp record is unreliable
Mike @435... I'd suggest taking everything at WUWT with a large dose of salt. Anthony's only litmus test for posting articles on his site is whether he thinks it casts doubt on climate science, without any for validation or review of the materials. You really have to dig in to anything you read on that site. (And that's not to say you shouldn't dig in to materials posted here, but SkS takes on more of a review process behind the scenes for the articles posted here.)
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