Recent Comments

Prev  411  412  413  414  415  416  417  418  419  420  421  422  423  424  425  426  Next

Comments 20901 to 20950:

20901. Eclectic at 10:07 AM on 18 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @540

       You mention a New little ice age, coming in the next few years and decades.   That is the assertion by Mr Peter Ferrara in Forbes Magazine in 2013 (the link supplied by you).

       Since 2013, the world has had its three hottest years in recorded history ( 2014 / 2015 / 2016 ).    And there is absolutely no sign that Mr Ferrara's assertion could become true.   His assertion is total Unsinn (as the Germans say).   Total nonsense.

       Adri, you should not be surprised to find Unsinn coming from Mr Ferrara.   He is a lawyer and a professional propagandist and an Amerikaner . . . a truly toxic combination!!   Mr Ferrara is paid to give you Dreck instead of Wahrheit / Sanningen / Truth.  And it is the same with JoanneNova.

       Adri, please attempt to be scientific with your thinking.   When you wish to assess the health of a forest, then you should look at the health of all the trees - not simply look at the healthiest 4 trees which you can find to please you.

20902. scaddenp at 10:00 AM on 18 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       I find it worrying that you would uncritically accept a comment from a TV documentary and assume that it invalidates the science. Misinformation organisations make documentaries to confuse eg "Great global warming swindle", and "climate hustle" which misrepresent science for the gulliable. As has been shown above by Tom and MA Rogers, the sources you have been trusting are not reliable and in fact are doctoring the truth. And you and many others have fallen for it. It is extremely hard to have a discussion when misinformation is uncritically accepted and hard-core, peer-reviewed, widely accepted science papers are treated as unreliable. As Rob says, it implies a strong bias against science. You must have searched some very dubious sources to find these and yet trust them rather than the IPCC expert review of published science.

       When shown that your evidence is invalid, do you change your mind or go frantically searching for confirmation of your bias from yet more dubious sources?

       Is there actually any point in us discussing data with you? In your own mind, what data would cause you to change your position?

       Also, just make sure that you do understand the extent of agriculture in Greenland.

20903. Tom Curtis at 09:07 AM on 18 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @541, the graph (not map) that I showed as the third image @536 is the simple mean of:

       The following data sources were used in constructing the main plot:

       1. (dark blue) Sediment core ODP 658, interpreted sea surface temperature, Eastern Tropical Atlantic: M. Zhao, N. A. S. Beveridge, N. J. Shackleton, M. Sarnthein, and G. Eglinton. "Molecular stratigraphy of cores off northwest Africa: Sea surface temperature history over the last 80 ka". Paleoceanography 10 (3): 661-675. doi:10.1029/94PA03354
       2. (blue) Vostok ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Central Antarctica: Petit J. R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N. I., Barnola J. M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis J., Delaygue G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V. M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V., Lorius C., Pépin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M.. "Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica". Nature 399: 429-436. doi:10.1038/20859
       3. (light blue) GISP2 ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Greenland: Alley, R. B.. Quaternary Science Reviews. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00062-1
       4. (green) Kilimanjaro ice core, δ18O, Eastern Central Africa: Thompson, L. G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M. E. Davis, K. A. Henderson, H. H. Brecher, V. S. Zagorodnov, T. A. Mashiotta, P.-N. Lin, V. N. Mikhalenko, D. R. Hardy, and J. Beer. "Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa". Science 298 (5593): 589-593. doi:10.1126/science.1073198
       5. (yellow) Sediment core PL07-39PC, interpreted sea surface temperature, North Atlantic: Lea, D. W., D. K. Pak, L. C. Peterson, and K. A. Hughen (2003). "Synchroneity of tropical and high-latitude Atlantic temperatures over the last glacial termination". Science 301 (5638): 1361-1364. doi:10.1126/science.1088470
       6. (orange) Pollen distributions, interpreted temperature, Europe: B. A. S. Davis, S. Brewer, A. C. Stevenson, J. Guiot (2003). Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 1701-1716. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00173-2
       7. (red) EPICA ice core, δDeuterium, Central Antarctica: EPICA community members (2004). "Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core". Nature 429 (6992): 623-628. doi:10.1038/nature02599
       8. (dark red) Composite sediment cores, interpreted sea surface temperature, Western Tropical Pacific: L. D. Stott, K. G. Cannariato, R. Thunell, G. H. Haug, A. Koutavas, and S. Lund (2004). "Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch". Nature 431: 56-59. doi:10.1038/nature02903

       It shows the individual proxies in the background.

       The inset shows the following temperature reconstructions over the last 2000 years:

       1. (orange 200-1995): P. D. Jones and M. E. Mann (2004). "Climate Over Past Millennia". Reviews of Geophysics 42. doi:10.1029/2003RG000143
       2. (red-orange 1500-1980): S. Huang (2004). "Merging Information from Different Resources for New Insights into Climate Change in the Past and Future". Geophys. Res Lett. 31: L13205. doi:10.1029/2004GL019781
       3. (red 1-1979): A. Moberg, D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. M. Datsenko and W. Karlén (2005). "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data". Nature 443: 613-617. doi:10.1038/nature03265
       4. (thin black line 1856-2004): Instrumental global annual data set TaveGL2v [2]: P. D. Jones and A. Moberg (2003). "Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001". Journal of Climate 16: 206-223.

       Over the last 2000 years, the reconstructions are to be preferred, as each uses more than 8 proxies, but there is little difference between the mean of those reconstructions and the mean of the 8 proxies over that period.

       Further details about the graph are here.

       Almost any modern multi-proxy temperature reconstruction is preferable to taking the value of a single site, or just a few.  The one exception is Loehle and McCulloch (which you use).  That is because they use a heavilly biased sample of proxies but then take a simple mean of those proxies.  As I explain elsewhere, this is equivalent to assuming that "...that 66.7% of the Earths Surface is in the NH extratropics, 22.2% in the tropics, and just 11.1% in the SH extratropics".  Probably the best, and certainly the one using the most proxies, is that from the PAGES2000 consortium, shown here compared to four recent reconstructions (top of panel):

       

        

20904. MA Rodger at 07:03 AM on 18 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @541,

       The graphics you present do not support your assertions of a toastie warm MWP. In truth, they are a bit of a joke.

       The first graphic Change of T & Change of CO2 Holocene Epoch is not supported by the document it says it sources for temperature data - Broecker (2001). While this paper itself is old and in many respects speculative, it does set its position out that "Holocene temperature fluctuations ... were probably less than 1°C." So for this graphic you present to show fluctuations of 8°C puts it quickly in the bin.

       The second graphic plots a tiny part of one of two a Greenland borehole temperature reconstruction from Dahl-Jensen (1998) but the graphic for some reason cites a secondary source (Bond et al 2001). The other trace on this graphic is called Yang-Delta T but what this is plotting is not entirely clear. I would assume it is the 'weighted' China trace from figure 3 in Yang et al (2002) but there appears to have been some fiddling with this data in the most recent period plotted.

       The third graphic is simply figure 2 from Loehle & McCulloch (2008) which presents a global temperature reconstruction to 1935. Note the peak of the MWP sits just 0.5°C above the 1935 level. Thinks - I wonder what has happened to global temperatures since 1935?

       The final graphic is another stab at Holocene temperature & CO2 levels with various temperature reconstructions presented (including the borehole data used in the first graphic above) citing Bond et al (2001) again. It certainly is plotting out the bottom two traces from fig 5A in the paper but using the wrong x-axis. Of the other two traces presented, one does seem to be using the x-axis properly but where it is sourced is not at all evident. And as a parting shot at this rubbish, note that the CO2 trace in this graphic is saying CO2 topped 300ppm in about 1780AD, assuming the grapher managed to plot it against the x-axis correctly. If the x-axis is wrong, the y-axis is also up the spout as well.

20905. william5331 at 07:02 AM on 18 February 2017
       Scientists study ocean absorption of human carbon pollution
       

       This might be the explanation of why, despite an apparent decrease in carbon output into the atmospere, Carbon dioxide took an unusual jump in 2016.  The  first Man Loa results are finally out for January and the jump from the previous January was 3.61.  It will be interesting to follow the rest of this year.  For 2015 - 2016, in order of months the results were:

       2.54, 3.76, 4.14, 3.74, 4.01,3.08,3.32,3.40, 3.28, 3.37 and 2.63 for an average of 3.38

       If a high result such as the 4's was an artifact of some sort (lab error, for instance) one would expect a particularly low result for the same month this year.  Another high result would indicate something fundamental happening such as a sink shutting down.

20906. Rob Honeycutt at 02:52 AM on 18 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri...  From the warning snip portion of your comment at 540 I think we can gather that "dismissiveness" (as I framed it) is based in distrust of government. You can correct me if I'm wrong. 

       I can promise you, you're interpretting the science very wrong. Everyone here at Skeptical Science has been through this a 100 times before. What we find is, as we explain the science, people like you are generally driven further into denial. And as you get more and more frustrated with not getting the answers you prefer, you end up getting angry and frustrated, and we ultimately have to delete your access to comment.

       We can start going through the science if you like, but if you want to avoid this predictable outcome, you would have to bring an open mind to the conversation. 

       I know it's probably very hard for you to see the difference, but many of the sources you're using are not about the science. Biocab.com, Jonova.com... These are websites that do not present the actual scientific research. They're designed to confuse. And they do a very good job of that.

20907. Adri Norse Fire at 23:58 PM on 17 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Tom Curtis 

       I'm a bit confused with the image you've shown me, the image is composed of a large map and a small one so what are the real data?

       As far as I have been able to investigate the large image plots ice core data, covering the past 11,700 years, where does the small figure come from?

       Because the main one points to periods of the Holocene with higher temperature than now. So?

20908. Adri Norse Fire at 23:41 PM on 17 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       MA Rodger
       What I meant was that I am using scientific data in the sense that my arguments are exclusively in scientific terms, regardless of whether my claims are true or not.

       Rob Honeycutt/scaddenp

       Why do you say that I am not using scientific data? Do not scientific documentaries and scientific journals make scientific knowledge public? Is that knowledge invalid? So everything the public knows is a lie ... including global warming, right?

       When I said that the current temperature was below about 1.5 ° I relied on a documentary where a gentleman, I think he was Norwegian who was in the Antarctic and claimed that the ice cores of his own research proved that the temperature was 1.5 ° higher to the present during the Medieval Warm Period. But also, it is known that historically the peoples of contemporaries of that time recorded that in Greenland agriculture was possible, among other things, etc. I think it is out of place to think that everything is part of a subtle conspiracy, of wich I am part, of course.

       Tom Curtis

       Thank you.

       Okay, this is the kind of thing I said that misinterpretations were likely to occur. I have not said that the current increase in CO2 comes from volcanoes. And you're right, I thought it was a question I asked John Hartz, it's my fault. Sorry. Again you are right, I have no problem accepting that the recent increase in CO2 is due to human industrial activity, although there are other scientists who deny that conclusion with their own data, since from the beginning I said CO2 does not cause the current global warming by greenhouse effect or by feedback. I just do not see it likely. Sources I read some time ago claimed that water vapor is the main greenhouse gas and that it is responsible for two-thirds of the natural greenhouse effect. As you say very well it is a stable process, but the Earth makes all kinds of movements and we do not really know how much impact the orbital changes have on the greenhouse effect and Milankovich attributed the intervals of glacial periods and warm periods to the orbital changes. Which is no small thing in terms of climate.

       Sorry for putting that graphic, I knew it was just a very nice graphic. I have taken note.

       Well, as I said above the Antarctic data show also, that the temperature was higher than the current approximately 1.5 degrees during the Medieval Warm Period.

       "All of this may be a side issue, but I am unsure as to what point you are trying to make with two charts of CO2 concentration over the last 800,000 years, or the chart of CO2 concentration over the Holocene." Why the current Temperature is 1.5 ° lower than the medieval warm period? " It is not. See chart above.'' Yes it was, why do you think it was called the Medieval Warm Period? Let's look at some recent research:

       Working with a 2.5-foot-long core of peat in Penido Vello (Galicia, Spain) Martinez-Cortizas et al. (1999), a Mercury deposit record was extracted that extended until 4000 years ago. The work revealed that warm periods were characterized by a low accumulation of mercury. They also standardized the variables extracted and related them to the temperatures of the last 30 years. The work revealed that the medieval warm period in the northwest of Spain was 1.5 ° C warmer than the current one and that the average temperature of the warm Roman period was in no less than 2 ° C. Even a period of 80 years in the Middle Ages with average temperatures 3 ° higher than the current ones.

       Desprat et al. (2003) studied the climatic variability of the last three millennia through the sediments of the Vigo estuary, clearly recognizing three warm periods and three cold periods, without seeming to be a relation between the variability and the increase of carbon dioxide. The authors concluded that the solar radiative balance and the ocean circulation seem to be the main mechanisms that force these cyclical variations in the Peninsula.

       Pla and Catalan (2005) analyzing sediments of chrysophytes in more than 100 lakes of the Pyrenees reproduced a record of winter and spring temperatures during the Holocene. Warm and cold oscillations were recognized for these oscillations over the past few millennia. From the Medieval period it is deduced that the temperatures were then 0.25 ° higher than the current ones.

       Here a chart: http://www.biocab.org/Holocene-Delta_T_and_Delta_CO2.jpg And as I liked the dissection you did to the other here is more: http://www.biocab.org/Boreholes_Reconstruction.jpg http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H07QGNhZQzA/S_gGpyDlDQI/AAAAAAAAAHw/ADQvLwN-9U0/s1600/temperaturas+%C3%BAltimos+2000+a%C3%B1os.jpg http://www.biocab.org/Holocene_Delta_T_and_Delta_CO2_Full.jpg

       ''Of course, in your version it is labelled Northern Hemisphere temperatures, not global temperatures. The point still stands, however. A Greenland ice core no more shows Northern Hemisphere temperatures by itself than does a thermometer in Moscow show temperatures in Tucson, Arizona.'' The question then remains valid, but to avoid falling into the little trick of geography I will rephrase: Why the current temperature of Spain is lower (0,25º - 1,5º) than the Spain's Medieval Warm Period, if the current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in Spain is higher without any doubt?

       (Can we extend the geographical scope to the Mediterranean and even Europe? I do not know; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/291/5508/1497 , http://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617)

       --And someone asked me why I'm so skeptical or something--

       Well, it is not very difficult to be a skeptic of anything since we have been able to see everything from the millionaire Red Cross scam in Haiti after the earthquake to hear the Greenpeace co-founder say that this organization has become a corrupt gang and then you see scandals with emails and what some IPCC scientists say, and so on. When I saw the Al Gore's documentary I believed it and when I saw the documentary of The Great Scam of Climate Change, I also believed it. So we must be very careful not to be deceived by the official tone, as some have pointed out: http://joannenova.com.au/2010/10/is-the-western-climate-establishment-corrupt-part-4-past-temperatures/

       MA Rodger

       It's funny that you mention sidelong to the ''Little Ice Age revivalists'' because according to NASA members, this very century we can face a solar minimum such as the Maunder Minimum or the Dalton Minimum and presumably a new Little Ice Age. Here's a link: http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#5c8c582669bb

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Sloganeering snipped.

20909. MA Rodger at 10:17 AM on 17 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Tom Curtis @538,

       The other point of note is how the graphic has slowly lost almost all the warming of recent decades as each denialist has manipulated the image.

       In the 2006 Wehry version (this a different PDF version of the same thing) you display @538 (& we can but presume this is a faithful reproduction of the Schoenwiese (1995) graphic), the trace is four or five pixels broad which is about 100 years of horizontal axis and 0.025ºC vertically. But it does show an edge disappearing into the vertical post-2000 temperature rise which scales to 15.9ºC. By the time it appears in the 2007 Archibald paper, the edge has dropped to 15.75ºC. Then it features in the 2009 Denis Avery version by which tme it has dropped more to 15.6ºC and in the most recent version introduced @532, the 2014 NA Florenza version it has dropped again to 15.55ºC.

       Strangely, that feature so loved by the Little Ice Age Revivaists maintains its top edge at 15.5ºC throughout this process of hidden decline.

20910. ubrew12 at 06:42 AM on 17 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       Loyola: "Some...[climate alarmists] think that rising temperatures and sea levels are alarming regardless of what's causing them to rise. Such voices are in a tiny minority, however."  Swap out 'climate alarmists' for 'human beings', and Loyola is still speaking nonsense.  You don't think everybody in Florida is going to be alarmed if sea level rises ten feet?   Climate alarmists are not alarmed at Climate Change, they are alarmed at the lack of Climate Action.  So, along with Loyola's cherry-picking trophy mentioned above, he should be awarded one for misdirection.  Imagine Loyola opinionating at the site of a protest at the Oroville Dam in California (which could possibly collapse due to climate change and neglect), and telling the media "Ya know, these protesters wouldn't be out here if this was a natural dam!"   Yes, and also if they were abducted by Space aliens...

20911. scaddenp at 06:18 AM on 17 February 2017
       Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
       

       Further to that, unless you are ready to throw conservation of energy of the window (in which case this isnt the site for you), you cannot increase the ocean heat content (or surface temperature) without changing the energy flow. We have a pretty good handle on these energy flows (and the obvious one is the increasing re-radiation from GHG). Where precisely do you think the energy flow is changing if this is a normal ice age cycle? Where does the directly measured increase in surface radiation disappears to if you think something else is the warming? I would note, that without the GHG, the orbital forcings should have us slowly cooling not warming.

       Not sure why you think GHG theory isnt performing..

       

20912. nigelj at 06:11 AM on 17 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       Alpinist @5, yes you can't really count on Forbes for balance or accuracy on anything.

       I find the Economist pretty accurate, reliable, and balanced on both economics and climate issues. Thats not to say I subscribe to all their views of course. They were a bit sloppy on the climate sensitivity issue.

20913. Tom Curtis at 05:21 AM on 17 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       MA Rodger @537, interesting.  From the last link, the translated text after the figure says:

       "Climate development of the last 10,000 years (From: http://lbs.hh.schule.de/index.phtml?site=themen.klima)
       It should be noted that "the current atmospheric temperature at 15.5 ° C is the" today "(right edge of the figure at" 0 "), according to climate scenarios (which are not a forecast!) Over the next 100 years ° C. "Today" is still under the so-called climate optimum of the Middle Ages and the Roman era. Note also that these periods, which were quite warmer than today, were regarded as optimal, whereas today's temperature rise is often classified as dangerous - which, however, it will probably be in the projection to 2100."

       (Courtesy of Google translate)

       

       That is quited different from the text within the figure, and likely comes from a different source.  The full spike up to 19 C is undoubtedly a projection, so that much is correct.  It is unclear, however, what the temperatures represent.  Nor is it clear that the full spike is projections.  Taking the plateau before the spike as being the 1750-1900 average, then observed global temperatures were 0.6 C warmer than that at time of publication, and have since increased another 0.4 C.  How much of that would show at the resolution of the chart I do not know.  Ignoring resolution issues, it is warmer than the temperatures shown for the MWP and Roman Optimum.  Further, the proxy used turns out to be the Camp Century ice core (from North West Greenland), and Greenland is almost unique across the globe in meing warmer than the 1961-1990 average:

       

       Projecting a Greenland Ice Core temperature as a global, or even Northern Hemisphere average is completely unjustified.

       It remains, however, that part at least of Schneider et al's critique that I quoted above is dubious at best.  Trimming projections is certainly justifiable, and it is ambiguous how much of the spike is projection, and how much direct observation.

20914. MA Rodger at 05:21 AM on 17 February 2017
       Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
       

       stephenwv @20.

       I think you rather exaggerate the power of the milankovitch cycles which drove the recent 100ky ice age cycles. There is much more power in the changing ice-cover that has a big impact on albedo and thus how much solar energy is reflected back into space. And the climatic change also sets off even greater changes in GHG forcing. So it does not take much science to assert that the next ice age, which would begin with a reduction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures (a process that had been in play over recent Holocene millenia but which has now dramatically reversed), will require a re-reversal of NH ice loss, a reversal of the global warming and a reversal of the positive anthropogenic GHG forcing. None of those essential processes are likely now to happen due to AGW.

       And note that the 'cycle' is not itself very strong but the product of other underlying cycles. Had glaciation been allowed to continue its course, the depths of the NH cooling over the next 100ky would have been far less than in previous glacial events as this graph of 65N summer 30ky bp - 70ky ap insolation shows.

       Concerning your link to the Dome Fuji Ice Core Preliminary Temperature Reconstruction, while previous peak interglacial temperatures within the reconstruction have been warmer than Holocene temperatures, it is perhaps more interesting to consider that the latest reconstruction temperatures (from a millenium ago) which after 10ky of the holocene had not fallen from the peak interglacial temperature.That was not the case 10ky after the other peak interglacials. Indeed, the temperature reconstruction shows the most recent temperatures on a par with this stage in previous interglacial periods. And since the time of that latest data in the reconstructed temperature, there has been significant warming (in recent decades) in Antarctica.

       A 2ºC global temperature rise will not be the "refreshing" event that you suggest. For a start it will increase sea level by twenty feet, as occurred during the Eemian (which, if you examine the data you cite, was not "several degrees" warmer than a millenium ago). Much of the problem with such a 2ºC rise (assuming that is all it will be) will be because, contrary to your unsupported assertions, it will arrive thirty/forty times more quickly than the last ice age ended.

20915. Tom Curtis at 05:05 AM on 17 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       Johnboy @6, the problem there is that The Wall Street Journal is owned by climate change denier, Rupert Murdoch.  Given the similar misinformation across his media empire, eg, The Australian, it is reasonable to believe that the anti-science approach of The Wall Street Journal and The Australian are as a result of a directive from Murdoch.  They are unlikely to be reversed.  Certainly the letters page of The Australian does not give equal time to supporters of the science, let alone the opinion pages.  I believe a similar dynamic applies at Forbes.

       The better approach is to vote with your feet.  Make support of climate denial a financial death knell for newspapers; at least as far as it is possible for you to do so.

20916. Johnboy at 02:38 AM on 17 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       The climate science community communicates amongst themselves and non-scientist followers (like myself) in one circle. The denialists communicate to followers in their circle. But then there's the Forbes, Wall Street Journals, etc of the world read by millions of folks. Maybe it's been tried, but it would seem to be very beneficial to request these publications to publish a response or original article for the world to read,  with the kinds of points made in this post, geared to the average joes out there. 

20917. Alpinist at 01:21 AM on 17 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       It's a simple rule, really...don't go to Forbes for actual science...any science.

       Hell, you can hardly count on Forbes for accurate economic information.

20918. stephenwv at 01:14 AM on 17 February 2017
       Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
       

       Of course climate change is real.  Of course the GMT is increasing.  We are in the tail end of yet another interglacial warm up!
       
       Science would be so much better off if they could actually scientifically mathematically analyze how the 100,000 year glacier cycle... the most powerful naturally occurring climate forcing event... will react to the man caused introduction of greenhouse gasses.

       The ability to do that would provide the missing link that appears to mitigate that introduction... since the average earth temperature is not following the doubling of CO2 from 200ppm to 400ppm, but IS following the 100,000 year glacial cycle and is currently several degrees COOLER than the highs of the past 400,000 years of glacial cycles.

       The peer reviewed data chart on the U.S. Government's NOAA web site graphically illustrates this fact.
       https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data2.html

       Science is obviously making progress in identifying previously unstudied causes and effects to the changing conditions surrounding climate change.  Unfortunately the complexities of the eath's climate system continue to remain elusive.
       
       As the understanding and the math become available to be able to integrate more and more of the interactions that continue to be studied, we will eventually be able to more accurately identify the way the 100,000 year glacial cycle will react.  

       New studies help to approach that end, such as all the climate change hysteria about the melting of the glaciers, sea ice, and ice caps, studies are showing that the influx of this fresh water into the oceans may be responsible for the mitigation of the warming effect caused by greenhouse gasses. This is just one event over the past million years that has contributed to the transition from the interglacial warm up to the glacial cool down. There are many other unknown, less obvious, and unstudied events in play.
       This information is not discussed by the global warming alarmists and is available on the U.S. Government NOAA web site.
       https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/model-abrupt.html

       The recent IPCC prediction that the temperature will rise at least another 2 degrees is refreshing in that it follows the pattern of the 100,000 year glacial cyle nicely.  Given the rate of increase since the 1880's we should reach that mark in another couple of hundred years or so.

20919. MA Rodger at 20:47 PM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Tom Curtis @536,

       For completeness, the origin of the temperature graph linked by  Adri Norse Fire@532 is (as you say) discussed by Schneider et al (2014)  who trace the actual graphic back to Goreham, Steve. (2012) 'The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism.' New Lenox Books. Note that an earlier origin of the actual graphic is the denialist web-paper Archibald, David. (2007) 'The Past and Future of Climate.'
       And the Schoenwiese (1995) graphic on which it is based can be seen here.

20920. scaddenp at 13:29 PM on 16 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       If EPA officials are sending encrypted email on government servers, then it is frankly pretty stupid. Let's see if this is actually true or yet more fake news.

20921. John Hartz at 13:16 PM on 16 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Recommended supplemental reading:

       Climate Change Denial Is the Original Fake News by Eric Pooley, Time, Feb 14, 2017

       Eric Pooley, a former managing editor of Fortune and chief political correspondent for Time, is a Senior Vice President at Environmental Defense Fund and the author of The Climate War.

20922. John Hartz at 13:07 PM on 16 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Speaking of Lamar Smith…

       Two Republican members of Congress sent a formal letter Tuesday to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of the Inspector General, expressing concern that “approximately a dozen career EPA officials” are using the encrypted messaging app Signal to covertly plan strategy and may be running afoul of the Freedom of Information Act.

       The open source app has gained renewed interest in the wake of the election of President Donald Trump.

       House members: EPA officials may be using Signal to “spread their goals covertly” by Cyrus Farivar, Ars Technica, Feb 15, 2017

20923. nigelj at 10:39 AM on 16 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       A lot of people above seem to be concluding much the same thing : The entire system of science, and it's publishing of results, has evolved to expose any problems within science, including unethical behaviour and mistakes, etc.

       In essence,there are numerous whistle blowers, with various motivations. People have plenty of incentives to blow the whistle, or try to find different results.  Then there are professional bodies and their standards. So its quite an intricate and advanced system of different things that helps expose mistakes or cheating rather well. Free speech is the underlying factor enabling all this. No other profession exposes problems in quite such a comprehensive way that I can think of.

       And there's been no evidence of any significant problems, which proves the system works.

       Contrast this to Trump, who is on the verge of censoring science among other things. The net result would be that scientist's will only say what they think Trump want's to hear, or they will leave the profession. 

20924. BBHY at 10:38 AM on 16 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       So, to restate this logical fallacy, if tomorrow I should happen to crash my car into a brick wall at 80 MPH, I shouldn't worry about any resulting damage to the car because millions of years ago the metals that make up the car were buried deep in the ground and mixed up with all sorts of other minerals.

       Well, I don't find this convincing, but I suppose there may be people out there who do.

20925. Digby Scorgie at 09:58 AM on 16 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Jim Hunt @5

       Lamar Smith makes me feel sick.  I remember reading elsewhere that there was a time when he accepted the reality of climate change; he changed his mind when he discovered "how much it would cost" to combat it.

20926. stephen baines14492 at 09:25 AM on 16 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       People have the wrong analogy in their heads when they think this way. Scientists are not like people selling dietary supplements and self help books to an ignorant public.  They are not plumbers or mechanic exploiting the customers lack of expertise by piling on the costs.

       Scientists are more like car sales-people trying to convince other car sales-people to buy their car.  That is what peer review of grants and papers represents — you are essentially making a pitch to your competitor.  

       That's why consensus in science is so compelling.  The incentive is always for someone to disagree with you — in large part that is your job as a scientist! — and the greatest rewards go to those who challenge the status quo successfully.  

20927. Tom Curtis at 08:21 AM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @532, first, let me say you are coping quite well with the language difference given that you are using a machine translator.

       "''What is worse, you ask, "How do they know that CO2 does not come from other sources that also have low levels of radicarbon But or course, Daniel Bailey has already answered that question with 10 lines of evidence.'' He didn't and this answer was not addressed to him"

       On the contrary, five of the ten lines of evidence falsify the theory that the increase in CO2 in modern times is a consequence of increased vulcansim; and a sixth renders it unlikely:

       

        As fossil fuel and volcanic CO2 are the only C14 - free sources of carbon on the Earth, that precludes the origin being a C14 free source other than fossil fuels.

       I am not sure what you meant by "this answer was not addressed to him" given that the sentence I quoted clearly came from the section of your comment headed "Daniel Bailey".  I assume it is an inaccurate translation.

       "I did not say that CO2 or CH3 does not produce a greenhouse effect, but the feedback effect of CO2 and other minor gases is irrelevant to climate compared to other greenhouse gases."

       It is true that water vapour is a significant feedback on any warming.  However, it contributes approximately 1C of warming for each 1 C contributed from another source.  That means that for the glacial/interglacial cycle, including water vapour, albedo effects will have most likely contributed <30% directly, CO2 and CH4 <25%, with H2O most likely contributing <45%.  Less than, because there are other short term feedbacks that are most likely to contribute about 0.5 C for each 1 C of direct warming, but may contribute 4 times that amount, but may have been a negative feedback.

       Firstly, I will note that 6 - 25% contribution from CO2 and CH4 (once we account for the effect of water vapour) is not a negligible contribution.

       Secondly, I will further note that H2O has a very short time to return to equilibrium in the atmosphere (weeks), so that its total atmospheric contribution is almost entirely governed by temperature.  That means when we wish to determine the effect of an increase in CO2 concentration on the Earth's temperature, we can treat H2O as a feedback - and need not track it independently.  That is particularly important for graphs such as this one:

       

       It is well known that the direct temperature effect of a change in forcing is about 1 C to 1.2 C per 3.7 W/m^2 change, and hence about 0.8 to 0.9 C for the change in forcing from last glacial maximum to the holocene.  The calculation of the implied sensitivity, therefore, is not an attempt to determine that direct effect, but to determine the result of the direct temperature effect plus all short term feedbacks, including H2O.  That turns out to be about 2.8 C per 3.7 W/m^2.

       Because I (and others) understand the purpose examining the causes of the difference in temperature between the last glacial maximum and the holocene, we do not bother mentioning the details about components of the short term feedbacks.  I will grant that when talking with a popular audience, who are not aware of the reasons for focussing on CO2 and change in glacial ice extent, that is a mistake.  We should clarrify the role of short term feedbacks, and why we are focussing on CO2 (as I have now done).

       "If you like correlations so much why do not you look for some of the temperature and CO2 for the last 10,000 years? Does this correlation count as evidence?"

       First, if you want to be taken seriously in a scientific discussion, don't source evidence from astrology sites, as you have done with that first chart.  Granted the author of that site attributes the chart to a climate scientist (Schoenwiese) without specification as to year, or publication.  Fortunately the chart has been examined as an example of the misuse of scientific charts by climate "skeptics" (Schneider et al 2014).  The chart is from Schoenwiese 1995, and based on Daansgard (1984) (published online in 2013).  Schneider et al (2014) comment:

       "many authors of skeptical media (for example Avery, 2009, and Vahrenholt und Lüning, 2012) fail to mention that this temperature estimate is based on an ice-core record from Greenland and may thus not be representative of global temperatures."

       Of course, in your version it is labelled Northern Hemisphere temperatures, not global temperatures.  The point still stands, however.  A Greenland ice core no more shows Northern Hemisphere temperatures by itself than does a thermometer in Moscow show temperatures in Tucson, Arizona.  It can be used (as Daansgard used it) as an indication of North Atlantic temperatures, but beyond the North Atlantic, its accuracy as a temperature index will rapidly fall.

       Schneider et al go on:

       "Most importantly, in Schönwiese's 1995 version the current and near future temperature changes are included. The recent warming goes far beyond the historic warm periods of the last 12000 years and should therefore have been included in the graph."

       (My emphasis)

       You should recognize that yourself.  Taken at face value, the chart indicates that the Little Ice Age terminated 400 years ago.  If we allow a more recent (circa 1850) termination then we must, according to that chart, acknowledge that for most of the LIA it was as warm as the peak of the Medieval Warm Period; and of course, that temperatures have since risen significantly above that peak.

       Finally, here is a chart which has a fair claim to represent global holocene temperatures (but note caveats):

       

        Note that 2004 is significantly warmer than any period prior to 1900, and that it has warmed appreciably since then.

       All of this may be a side issue, but I am unsure as to what point you are trying to make with two charts of CO2 concentration over the last 800,000 years, or the chart of CO2 concentration over the Holocene.

       "why the current temperature is 1.5 ° lower than the medieval warm period?"

       It isn't.  See chart above.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] added obvious but important missing word.

20928. chriskoz at 07:38 AM on 16 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       I found out that Mario Loyola (uncletimrob @1 please note the correct spelling) also works for National Review. NR is another conservative outlet famous for e.g. deceptive temperature scaling. Such lame and primitive information distortion techniques championed by NR give an indication about the integrity of one of thier ranks (Loyola). So no surprise Mario came up to champion another science denial technique: this time cherry picking. He wants to mtach the "achievements" of his colleagues.

       NR is also famous for their libels against scientists (well kniown case of Michael Mann).

20929. nigelj at 07:11 AM on 16 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       These logical fallacies described in the article are very important. It pays to know how to recognise these.  It would be great if this material was better taught in schools.

       The denialists claim of a so called pause involved a great deal of cherrypicking of start and end dates.

       Cosmic rays are a red herring, and usually involved missrepresenting what the research really says, or cherrypicking a few papers by denialists.

       However some things in the climate debate have simply become lies. People who claim natural causes have not been considered, are simply lying. This material on natural causes is in the peer reviewed research and IPCC reports, and the denialists must know this by now, so they are lying when they claim it's not been considered,  or has been found to be the main cause.

       The Trump Administration seems to embrace any convenient lie. I think people have forgotten the lessons of the serious lies of Nixon in the Watergate Scandal. Humanity tends to forget past issues, and the harshness of the issues becomes less present, and new generations are born that have no knowledge of them. We then repeat the mistakes of the past.

        www.alternet.org/environment/climate-change-coal-mining-donald-trumps-reality-pure-science-fiction

20930. scaddenp at 07:08 AM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Ardi, I would second RH comment. When you see conflicting information from various sources, what are your processes in determining what information you trust? What raises a red-flag when something comes from a science source?

20931. Paul D at 06:35 AM on 16 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       I gave up on the Daily Fail in the early 1980s (maybe even earlier), it was a story about the discovery of Noahs Ark. The story turned out to be hyped and basically fiction, there was little effort made to confirm the reliability of the archeology described in the story.

       It's 100 times worse now.

20932. Rob Honeycutt at 06:32 AM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri...  Well, unfortunately, man-made climate change is very much is like the theory of gravity in terms of how solid the science is. 

       The point I'm trying to make is this. You currently have a very poor understanding of the science. By your own admission, what you do believe is not based in actual scientific research, but is derived from documentaries and magazines.

       What I'm trying to understand is, why? 

       Why would you believe non-scientific sources over actual published science?

20933. uncletimrob at 06:15 AM on 16 February 2017
       Is anything wrong with Forbes Climate Reporting?
       

       Why is it that people with no qualifications and no experience - let alone no qualifications in any science - think they know enough to "debunk" the work of thousands of climate scientists?  There is a certain arrogance there I think. Most people that I know with any intellectual honesty would not even dream of questioning the methods or conclusionsof someone in another field.

       Ask questions and get answers - then ask more because you don't quite get it - well that's an entirely different matter that Layola and others clearly do not understand.

20934. nigelj at 04:59 AM on 16 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       giniajim @6

       My understanding is that the climate denialists believe scientists are exaggerating the severity of the climate issue, in order to scare governments, who will then want more research to get to the bottom of the problem. It keeps the research grants flowing.

       But it could equally work the other way. Governments could go into denial about the climate problem, and stop any research. And we have a perfect example of this: The Trump Administration have signalled they will do this to a significant extent.

       So it's absurd to believe scientists would engage in such unethical activities, when outcomes are so uncertain.

20935. MA Rodger at 02:07 AM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @532.

       You say you use "scientific data." The four graphs you present do not provide scientific data of temperature. Instead the one temperature graph you do present is schematic, and also flat wrong. It says it plots Northern Hemisphere temperatures yet shows less than 0.1ºC increase in NH temperature since 1850. HadCRUT4 (which is known to underestimate the warming due to poor Arctic coverage) puts the NH temperature increase since 1850 at 1.05ºC while GISTEMP (which provides a more realistic assessment of Arctic temperatures) puts the rise since 1880 as 1.25ºC. Note also that this graph you present does not support your assertion that "the current temperature is 1.5 ° lower than the medieval warm period."(And that stands whatever the º you intend.)

20936. giniajim at 00:39 AM on 16 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

         Very good article.  However, it leaves out one important (imho) piece: that motivation(s) of the grantors.  Why would a government employee, who gets paid a salary, want to skew climate science one way or another?  What's in it for him/her?  Another point of exploration: does the carbon fuel industry try to influence research by using carefully crafted grants to universities (carefully crafted to get the "right" answer). 

       Thanks!

20937. Adri Norse Fire at 00:17 AM on 16 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Well, I did not mean to sound pedantic. First of all I want to say that I am not a native speaker of English, I am using the translator to talk to you ... and that may cause some misunderstanding. Anyway, I apologize.

       Rob Honeycutt

       I am not working hard to deny anyone, what I say is what I have seen in documentaries and in magazines, that's all. I'm not an old scientist. But unlike you, Rob, I do not see that the establishment in which you believe has an indestructible foundation, this is not like the theory of gravity, there is a plenty of people who are also scientists who disagree with you In this subject or with the supposed orthodoxy to which you refer.

       '' Why do you think you're dismissive of the science? ''

       I do not despise science, I think that until now my arguments have not been ideological but scientific data that obviously are within the reach of all.

       Tom Curtis

       I want to remember that my first comment was a few months ago, having that in perspective; You're right when you say that my last answer does not exactly respond to his response, but I was thinking in the background of the whole conversation that was whether CO2 and therefore human industrial activity are causing the global rise in temperature.

       ''What is worse, you ask, "How do they know that CO2 does not come from other sources that also have low levels of radicarbon But or course, Daniel Bailey has already answered that question with 10 lines of evidence.'' He didn't and this answer was not addressed to him; That's why I said "sorry for my ignorance," because if you can not know how much low-radiocarbon CO2 comes from other natural sources due to lack of studies on the subject or for any reason, how can you faithfully calculate the amount Of CO2 emitted by human industrial activity? I mean, we can distinguish that something has different properties, but we do not seem to know how these properties work or whether they hold them through their natural cycles which is an imperative for the final calculation.

       I did not say that CO2 or CH3 does not produce a greenhouse effect, but the feedback effect of CO2 and other minor gases is irrelevant to climate compared to other greenhouse gases.

       If you like correlations so much why do not you look for some of the temperature and CO2 for the last 10,000 years? Does this correlation count as evidence?

       http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles-images/Climate-Timeline-10000yrs.png

       http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/antarctic_cores_800kyr.jpg

       And what about this chart?

       http://kabarkampus.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Dede-Prabowo-Wiguna_ilustrasi-1.jpg

       http://s3.amazonaws.com/wboc-digital/production/sites/wboc-weather/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/28214154/Capture21.png

       The question is whether we have the highest concentration of atmospheric CO2 in 800,000 years, without going further, why the current temperature is 1.5 ° lower than the medieval warm period?

       ''Finally, I will note that "recovery from the Little Ice Age" is a description of what the temperature does over a period ending about 1850. It is not an explanation of that warming.'' Indeed it is an assumption that the rise in temperature was related to the Little Ice Age. This also explains the warming of the 20th century. Someday I'll explain my crazy theory, but not right now. I apologize again.

       John Hartz

       Only me?

20938. Jim Hunt at 19:05 PM on 15 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Digby @4 - Quite so. For chapter and verse on the "Trump Administration emasculat[ion of] NOAA" please see:

       "Climategate 2 Falls at the First Hurdle?"

       Watch the video to discover how “The Land of the Free” has morphed into “TrumpLand” in a matter of weeks. The “interrogation” of Rush Holt of the AAAS. A show trial of the American Association for the Advancement of Science? Congressman Lamar Smith presiding!

20939. bjchip at 17:34 PM on 15 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       Lets see  all the climate scientists on earth united in a conspiracy to lie to us over more than a century,  so tight that not ONE of them will spill the story, even though they'd make much MORE money for doing so and there are damned few examples of any such fraud lasting more than a few years...   OR ...  the CEO's and organizations that have repeatedly been indicted, repeatedly proved to be motivated by money and repeatedly conspired at apparently every opportunity they could to improve their monetary results (this is often a STATED PURPOSE of a corporation) are conspiring to lie to us... more recently. 

       Do we have evidence?  Yes

       Which one?   The latter. 

       Is this ever considered by the denialists?   No.  

       In fact, when this is brought up they are invariably ENTIRELY silent on the topic.  As though it got trapped in a filter before they even perceived the question being asked. 

       Which is, in a psychological sense, actually pretty likely.  Reality however, does not go away when you stop believing in it.   -  Thank you Phillip K. Dick

20940. Forrest at 12:27 PM on 15 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       Seems to me that the best argument against this claim is to turn it on its head.  Worldwide, we probably spend a few billions of dollars a year on climate change research.  But we spend a few trillion dollars a year on fossil fuels.  Any scientist who could conclusively show that climate change is wrong would instantly be rewarded by the fossil fuel industry with an endowed chair at a prestigious university, memberships on boards, and senior positions at industry think tanks and industry groups. He or she would instntly become immensely wealthy.  With this opportunity readily available, either climate change is real, or capitalism is fundamentally flawed.

20941. Digby Scorgie at 10:07 AM on 15 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Regarding the Daily Fail, it seems fake expert Judith Curry connived with fake journalist David Rose to concoct a fake scandal at NOAA, which the fake media promptly disseminated as widely and loudly as possible.  Worse is the possibility that this fake news will be used as an excuse by the (valiantly refraining from invoking the adjective "fake") Trump Administration to emasculate NOAA.  We are living in interesting times.

20942. Tom Curtis at 09:14 AM on 15 February 2017
       Climate's changed before
       

       KR @546, C14 is mostly formed from N14 (a stable isotope of Nitrogen) when a neutron strikes the nucleis of a Nitrogen atom, displacing a proton.  Therefore an increase in C14 does represent a real increase in atmospheric CO2.  Given that C14 represents just 0.0000000001% of all atmospheric carbon, any such increase would be negligible in terms of atmospheric forcing. 

       As a side note, about 1% of C14 is formed from C13, but 1% of 0.0000000001% not significant.

20943. KR at 08:47 AM on 15 February 2017
       Climate's changed before
       

       ergodicity - Conversion of one carbon isotope to another doesn't change the total amount of carbon dioxide present. And the data we have for the climate during the LaChamp anomaly indicates no discerneable change in temperatures. 

       To all intents and purposes, cosmic ray levels have negligible impact on the climate, and it's noteworthy that current variations in those cosmic rays are tiny compared to historic varations - variations that likewise had no effect. 

20944. nigelj at 07:51 AM on 15 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       I agree. The accusation that climate scientists are faking data to make things look worse, and that they are scaremongering, all so that they get research grants, is absurd. It would be much easier and less risky just to get a better paying private sector job.While all professions have a few people with little integrity, there is no evidence such things are widespread or the norm, or the courts would be ten times busier.

       There is no proof of fake data, fake photos of glaciers, or incorrect data adjustments, or distorted exaggerations within climate models, or anything else. These issues have been investigated over and over by officially appointed people, (eg climategate, or The Best Study) and they found no problems.

       The people investigating would clearly be rewarded for finding any slight problem, in terms of more prestige, promotions, and bonuses etc. This is important to realise. They have considerable reason to look closely and be very criticial.

20945. John Hartz at 07:50 AM on 15 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       @ Adri Norse Fire #526:

       I accept the overwhelming and ever-growing body of scientific evidence about manmade climate change. Why do you deny it?

20946. JWRebel at 07:28 AM on 15 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       The argument about money is impervious to fact & logic because it is corollary to the theory that there is an alternative to climate change theory, which is that it is globally sourced collective conspiracy hoax theory. It's a little like arguing against the bodily resurrection of Jesus because a man in his condition would not have been able to move the stone blocking the entrance.

       What I do think is important to present is that many in the science community in past decades did not in fact jump on their new meal ticket, but were reticent in slowly and reluctantly accepting the force of the evidence. It is a story which people understandably resist, desparate for another take on the events that are unfolding. And this reluctance can trigger personal recognition for many today.

20947. ubrew12 at 06:23 AM on 15 February 2017
       Why claiming that climate scientists are in it for the money is absurd
       

       If Scientific conclusions can be manufactured to support their funder, then Exxon and the Koch Brothers are missing a huge opportunity for continued profits.  Is this because they are too stupid to realize they can manufacture Scientific conclusions, or too honest to do so?  If A, then B.  If notB, then notA: Scientific conclusions cannot be manufactured for money.  Why not?  Because they are conclusions about Nature, and Nature doesn't hide itself just because you got paid to lie about it.  If James Hansen claims his climate model shows future warming, Exxon doesn't have to subpoena Hansen's climate model for inspection.  The physics of our atmosphere is not Hansen's exclusive territory: Exxon can build its own model from scratch.  Which they did, and it confirmed Hansen's conclusion.  Unlike Wall Street, Nature cannot hide a fraud.  It is equally available for sampling to anyone; certainly to any industry that collectively pulls in a trillion dollars in pure profit every year. 

20948. Tom Curtis at 02:29 AM on 15 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri Norse Fire @526, with respect to your response to Daniel Bailey, when introducing the list of 10 points to which you respond, he wrote: 

       "The human-caused origin (anthropogenic) of the measured increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is a cornerstone of predictions of future temperature rises.

       As such, it has come under frequent attack by people who challenge the science of global warming. One thing noteworthy about those attacks is that the full range of evidence supporting the anthropogenic nature of the CO2 increase seems to slip from sight. So what is the full range of supporting evidence?

       There are ten main lines of evidence to be considered:"

       (My emphasis)

       It is quite clear, then, that he was discussing evidence that the CO2 increase over the 19th-21st century was anthropogenic in origin, not the distinct claim that the temperature rise was also anthropogenic in origin.  As such, your repeated iterations of "That does not prove that CO2 produces global warming" or variants is simply non-responsive.  You have conveniently shown his evidence to be "irrelevant" by treating it as addressing of something it was not adduced in support of.

       What is worse, you ask, "How do they know that CO2 does not come from other sources that also have low levels of radicarbon?"  But or course, Daniel Bailey has already answered that question with 10 lines of evidence.  So, your misapplication of the 10 lines of evidence serves you two purposes - both to make them easy to refute as irrelevant to the question they did not address; but also to treat them as not having addressed that question so that you can still consider it open.

       With regard to your response to me:

       "'' [...] Then it was driven by a feedback cycle of greenhouse gases (CO2 and methane) ''. Only?"

       Of course not "only", but only those directly relevant to the discussion.  You are directly denying that a CO2 and CH3 greenhouse effect can be a feedback on the glacial cycle.  Evidence that the theory you are opposing without understanding incorporates such a feedback is, therefore, relevant, as is the evidence that such a feedback exists.

       Actually, the correlations are not always based on recent times.  If you want the correlations over 800,000 years of glacial cycle, see point 1 @520 above.  You can ignore the correlations if you wish, but they are evidence, no matter how much you wish to not see it.

       Finally, I will note that "recovery from the Little Ice Age" is a description of what the temperature does over a period ending about 1850.  It is not an explanation of that warming.  You do not explain things simply by redescribing them in different language.  Now, if you ever come across a theory of what caused the general warming in the century prior to industiralization took of, you are welcome to try and show that it explains the warming in the 20th century as well.  But absent that theory, your playing rhetorical games when you invoke a "recovery from the LIA".  You are not practising, or expounding science.

20949. Rob Honeycutt at 01:34 AM on 15 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Adri... First of all, it seems as though you're working very hard to reject the established scientific understanding on these points, rather than working to try to actually understand them. Skepticism is a good thing when it's properly applied. That requires that you first learn the fundamental science.

       Several folks have patiently explained the science and the article you posting on also explains it. But you've failed to acknowledge that you grasp what's being said and are, instead, compounding your misunderstanding with additional incorrect comments. 

       We see exactly this pattern over and over here at SkS. I'm very interested to get down to why this occurs. 

       Why do you think you're so dismissive of the science? 

20950. Adri Norse Fire at 01:09 AM on 15 February 2017
       CO2 lags temperature
       

       Eclectic I still do not know what the problem is, don't worry about that. (I think the web does not allow that option, but I'm not sure anyway)

       Of course, given that the present interglacial period has had shorter phases of warm and cold periods occurring on a regular basis, it is very plausible that the centuries after the end of the small Ice Age the temperature would stabilize again. Does it seem very logical?

Prev  411  412  413  414  415  416  417  418  419  420  421  422  423  424  425  426  Next