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Daniel Mocsny at 06:04 AM on 4 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
nigelj@15: The fundamental danger of religion is that it brainwashes people to place their trust in human authority while at the same time fooling themselves into thinking they are trusting something else (such as "God"). That leaves religious people vulnerable to being led anywhere the human authority wants them to go. That can either be bad or good.
Some religions forbid behaviors that science has found to be lethal, such as alcohol consumption. Alcohol kills around 75,000 Americans per year, with many of the victims being young enough to have had decades of life expectancy remaining. If Americans were to adopt a religion that bans booze (for example Islam), the reduction in deaths might make up for the increase in honor killings, stonings, beheadings, suicide bomings, etc. Religiously motivated violence is deplorable, but it gets far more news coverage than the numerically greater killings from substance abuse. Then again, Islam was invented in a time and place where people didn't yet know about tobacco. Tobacco is now the world's number one cause of preventable death, accounting for about 10% of all human deaths! (Over 5 million deaths/yr globally, and over 400,000/yr just in the USA.) Yet the fixed doctrine of Islam does not change to account for this new poison, with the result that tobacco use is prevalent throughout the Islamic world. In part this is because tobacco is one of the few vices Islam does not forbid.
A key aspect of religion, which secular policymaking lacks entirely, is the ability to change people's values. When economists try to change people's behavior, the best they can do is try to change the incentive structure in which rationally self-interested players try to maximize benefits to self. That is, economists can only appeal to individual greed and selfishness. They cannot fundamentally change that aspect of people. Furthermore, as the rise of Donald Trump illustrates with horrifying clarity, economists cannot insulate the incentive structure from being manipulated by the very people the economists are trying to incentivize. They can't keep the monkeys in their cages. If we try to incentivize people to emit less greenhouse gas by slapping them with a carbon tax, we equally incentivize them to look for ways to undermine the carbon tax - such as by funding think tanks to spread disinformation, buying policians, or voting for Trump. If the selfish value-maximizers figure out it is cheaper to get rid of the carbon tax than to comply with it, they get rid of it.
We saw the same thing with Prohibition in the USA. Boozers weighed up all the costs and decided it made more sense to undermine Prohibition than to comply with it.
As another analogy, imagine a group of economists try to find an incentive structure that would transform a Supermax prison facility into a social utopia. You can't reach the Moon by climbing a tree, and you can't turn hardened criminals and sociopaths into productive, law-abiding citizens by adjusting the tax code. To have a civil society, you need most people to behave morally most of the time, even when it goes against their short-term selfish interests. Changing the economic system at most causes small adjustments to human behavior. To get transformative behavior change you need transformative moral change - you must transform what people value. Eliminating crime requires persuading everybody to view theft, violence, and harming others as wrong, even when you personally benefit. You need a large fraction of people to be so honest and morally upright that if they find a bag full of money on the street they will return it to its rightful owner rather than keep it.
Religion can change people's values, but so can secular philosophy. Secular philosophy has the added advantage that it can be based on evidence, and can improve by taking new evidence into account. Religion is extremely poor at accounting for new evidence, because religion is fundamentally about rejecting evidence.
As to the goodness of Katharine Hayhoe - I fully agree. She comes across as a genuinely good person. If all religious people were like her, religion wouldn't be much of a problem. So let's hope she succeeds.
However, she has certainly picked a tough fight. Even if she does somehow persuade significant numbers of Evangelicals to accept the scientific facts of climate change, they're still going to vote Republican because they don't accept the Democratic Party's positions on other issues like gay rights and reproductive choice. Thus you have to ask: how many decades would the Hayhoe approach take to bear fruit? Remember that Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million, and only won the Electoral College with a tiny margin in three critical swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, by 100,000 total votes or less). It would be far more efficient to turn a few hundred thousand Evangelicals into atheists and thus into liberal Democrats than to turn tens of millions of them into science-acceptors who remain social-religious conservatives who might then be able to shift the entire Republican Party into supporting climate policy.
But even so, I don't believe policy is where the future of Earth's climate gets decided. I believe morality is the real playing field. Humans are changing the climate because individual humans obtain benefits to self by contributing to climate change. There is no combination of policy and foreseeable technology that will change those game rules soon enough to prevent catastrophic climate change. (That is, zero-carbon alternatives will not become cheaper than existing dirty alternatives for everything we currently do, such as power generation, transportation, agriculture, cement manufacture, etc., before we have locked in catastrophic amounts of climate change. If you want to take an airplane flight in the year 2050, you will almost certainly burn fossil-fuel derived kerosene to do it.) Our only way out is for people to become far less selfish. People must come to value not contributing to climate change more than they value the benefits to self from contributing to climate change.
In a similar way, we didn't fight World War II by appealing to self-interest. You didn't get soldiers to land on Omaha Beach and charge into the German MG 42s by adjusting the incentive structure. You needed soldiers who had an abstract value that overrode their rational self-interest.
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nigelj at 05:51 AM on 4 January 2017Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
Maybe John Abraham was simply thinking of 1.5 degrees fahrenheit given he is American? The world has warmed that much since 1880 to approx. 2010 according to NASA. In no way does it detract from the many obvious truths in the article.
It's sad that the mainstream media dont report much on the falling cost of renewable energy. I just hear about it on a few websites like this. But then the fossil fuel lobby is very powerful, so draw your own conclusions.
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william5331 at 05:23 AM on 4 January 2017Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
An additonal possible 'bad' is that despite an evening out or even slight decrease in the world's carbon output into the atmosphere, the CO2 level in the atmosphere made a bigger jump than ever before. This may just be an effect of El Nino but the coming year will give some clarity if this is so. If it is a trend and continues, we are in a spot of bother.
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Kuni at 05:15 AM on 4 January 2017This is not normal – climate researchers take to the streets to protect science
Yes, it is normal. Welcome to end result of when you dick around with useless crapola that most people don’t understand like "95% confidence interval" or phrases like "extremely likely."
Every single climate expert needs to state the following at the beginning, middle, and end of every presentation, news conference, symposium, peer reviewed paper, and in their sleep:
When it comes to global warming there is no debate, there is no discussion, and there is no opinion. There are only those who want to commit mass murder on a global scale with global warming, and those who do not want to commit mass murder on a global scale.
The difference between Conservatives and ISIL/Daesh members: ISIL/Daesh members are a better class of hominid because at least they don’t lie about wanting to murder us.
Claiming that global warming is a hoax is worse than sitting around a Hamburg apartment planning to hijack passenger jets and crash them into office towers.
Moderator Response:[JH] Excessive repetition snipped.
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Kuni at 05:06 AM on 4 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
So hire Goldman to create a derivative that permits a long term short of the insurance companies with large exposure to low lying areas.
No one ever went broke betting on Americans doing the wrong thing.
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Kuni at 04:56 AM on 4 January 2017Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
Oooooooooooo, extremely unlikely. That will really convince people to ignore those claiming reality is a myth.
Climate scientists need to up their game. EVERY statement that climate scientists make needs to open with the following:
When it comes to global warming there is no debate, there is no discussion, and there is no opinion. There are only those who want to commit mass murder on a global scale with global warming, and those who do not want to commit mass murder on a global scale.
The difference between Conservatives and ISIL/Daesh members: ISIL/Daesh members are a better class of hominid because at least they don’t lie about wanting to murder us.
Claiming that global warming is a hoax is worse than sitting around a Hamburg apartment planning to hijack passenger jets and crash them into office towers.
Moderator Response:[DB] As others have noted, future comments standing in direct violation of this site's Comments Policy are subject to summary deletion. At the discretion of the moderators, future posting ability may be rescinded.
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knaugle at 02:30 AM on 4 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
I've read, in the news, maybe last Summer?, that developers calculate that by 2040, many Miami oceanfront buildings today will be in trouble, but figure they will have made back their investments with profit by 2030, so who cares? Of course I could just be making this up?
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Tom Curtis at 17:34 PM on 3 January 2017Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
David Kirtley @1, the trend increase from 1880 to present is about 1 C, but in 1880 the CO2 concentration was 290 ppmv, for a 38% increase in CO2 concentration. For a 45% increase in concentration, you need to start with 280 ppmv, or the preindustrial value. That is, circa 1750. The temperature increase from 1750 to the present is not very well known, but is likely to be greater than the 1 C increase since 1880, with a 1.5 C increase being a reasonable estimate.
I do not know that that the reasoning behind John Abraham's claim. He could also be using the specific difference in annual temperatures between 1880 and 2016, but at least part of that increase is due to short term factors (especially ENSO) so that is unlikely.
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indy222 at 13:56 PM on 3 January 2017Hansen and Sato Estimate Climate Sensitivity from Earth's History
A new paper by Friedrich et al. 2016 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923 agrees with HS12 that averaged over all the paleo data, CS =3.2 C. However, the point of their paper is that CS is very nonlinear, and is small at cold temps and high at warmer temps. In fact, they find CS=4.88C at the interglacial highs. The dots of paleo data do show a convincing strongly arcing upward curvature in deltaT vs forcing. If this is true, this is a real game-changer in a bad way. Does anyone know of significant criticisms of the Friedrich work? A casual search doesn't find any.
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Digby Scorgie at 13:05 PM on 3 January 20172016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #53
You're right, Glenn — a very cleverly written article.
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David Kirtley at 10:28 AM on 3 January 2017Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
When John says: "reaching almost 1.5 degrees Celsius with only about a 45% increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere" I'm wondering if he meant to say "1.0 degrees".
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Glenn Tamblyn at 10:22 AM on 3 January 20172016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #53
This is a good article - read it to the end to get the punchline.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:12 AM on 3 January 2017Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
nigelj@18,
Thanks for the feed-back. My thoughts and their presentation are still a work in progress.
I can definitely be clearer in the future that the type of "Engineering Solution" I believe is required to best meet the objective of advancing humanity is "Social Engieering - particularly in Business related Marketing activity (including political marketing by pursuers of personal benefit)" not "Technical Engineering". I share your concern about global geoengineering like the current massive experiment with CO2 generation. Global scale Geoengineering is probably only justified on a nearly lifeless planet, which hopefully human actions won't cause this one to become in the future (nuclear weapons threats as 'defense' or 'hoped to be a restraint of unacceptable actions' and related Star Wars creations of 'Perceptions of Imunity for Trouble-makers hoping to avoid retribution for what they try to get away with' are a bigger immediate threat, but they do not diminish the threat of rapid climate change).
As for 'rapid climate change due to human activity' being a future issue, making it difficult to address. The objective of advancing humanity to a lasting better future is clearly made more difficult by the currently popular and profitable massive rate of burning of fossil fuels. The unjustified perceptions of prosperity, popularity and profitability are the real problem, not the fact that the consequences are difficult to recognize. There is little doubt that burning fossil fuels is messing up the future, not improving it. But the ones who benefit the most can be confident that they will not suffer a net negative consequence because the main consequence is a future consequence, or the immediate consequences will only create a net-negative effect on less fortunate people who will not have the wealth and options to overcome the problems created (and have no real power or ability to fairly and justly get even with the benefiting trouble-makers). That is the main point I am preparing an OP on, the simple unacceptability of benefiting from an activity that others will face the consequences of. The assessments 'comparing the future costs of mitigation and adaptation to climate change vs. the perceptions of prosperity that have to be given up today' are basically bogus. They are built on the flawed concept that it is OK to cause problems for others, something that is especially easy to do to future generations because they literally have no chance to stop it (no vote, no lobbying power, no purchasing power, no misleading marketing power).
As for global action. Message Repetition is powerful. Repeating that 'It is essential for everything to be evaluated based on the need to advance humanity to a lasting better future for all, and actions that are contrary to that objective are simply not acceptabel regardless of developed perceptions of profitability or popularity' would help. Every leader should be required to repeat that almost daily and prove how their actions are 'acceptable and helpful'. And the leaders (in business and politics) who won't do that should lose their ability to be 'leaders' (immediately be removed from leadership for being proven to be incapable of properly responsibly performing the duties).
That is the type of Social Engineering that will be required, a return to Requiring Responsible behaviour from all of the "Winners". And it will solve many more problems than this Climate Change issue. Hopefully the reality of what some among us clearly try to get away with will be exposed and better understood to be objectively inexcusable, hastening the required Global Social Engineering changes.
I am now settling my thoughts on the root of the problem being this whole idea of "Winners". Humanity needs helpful contributors towards the advancement of all of humanity to a lasting better future. The human made-up games of competion can only be helpful if unacceptable pursuits are effectively kept from enabling someone to be perceived to be a "Winner". That simple rule applies in sport as well as business and politics. Grand fabulous amazing games with brilliant competition and spectacular results are possible, including nations becoming great, as long as creative talented ingenious very-smart cheaters never get a chance to be seen as "Winners".
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ubrew12 at 19:28 PM on 2 January 20172016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #53
Mary Ellen Harte compiles a semi-regular listing of climate articles at HuffPo your readers may also find interesting. Her latest is linked to here. Especially noteworthy is a web-article at CNN offering statistics, photos, and mini-interviews describing Earths Sixth Extinction that we're currently undergoing.
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jbpawley at 09:10 AM on 2 January 20172016 in Review: a recap of what happened at Skeptical Science
Good luck from all of us to John as he enters "The Lion's Den" of rightwing-funded disinformaiton groups at George Mason University.
https://www.desmogblog.com/george-mason-university
You are our Daniel. We are confident that, wielding the sword of truth, you will bring them (and TRUMP!) to their senses.
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nigelj at 06:24 AM on 2 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Daniel Mocsny @9, I think you are partly right that real religious revelations are rare, and people tend to simply believe what other people say, including religious authority figures etc. It's obviously not exactly a terribly rigorous way of getting at facts.
However many people I know believe the writers of the gospels personally knew Jesus, and they don't realise the gospels were written significantly later, and are second or third hand accounts. So people do at least believe there is some direct evidence. This unfortunate things compounds it all even further.
However Katharine might be rose tinted in her views, but seems like a good person in many ways, and even as an athiest I think it makes sense to support her outlook on this particular climate issue.
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nigelj at 06:13 AM on 2 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Chriskoz @11, I think your points are all true enough, but the real point being made is religion is based on faith so arguably diminishes trust in hard evidence in a "general sense". This may in turn diminish trust in global warming. This is of course speculative, but there does seem to be evidence that religious people are more sceptical about global warming from various polls.
However I doubt its a big issue for the climate debate. Polls dont show a massive difference. Europe tends more towards athiesm, and their efforts to reduce climate change are limited at best.
I do think this suggests climate change scepticism is more related to other factors to do with reliance on oil, psychological issues, vested interests and subconscious feelings cold climate are hostile etc. Its a whole combination of things so very hard to untangle.
I suspect 10 more years of elevated temperatures will start to really register with the public and politicians, and policy may start to change quite rapidly. It could happen before then and hopefully does. Climate reaches tipping points, and so do human responses to events. -
Daniel Mocsny at 05:19 AM on 2 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Glenn Tamblyn @10: "Trying to use a non-rosy view of religion isn't likely to help you with communicating to people who are religious."
We have to use a non-rosy view of fossil fuels when communicating with people who are habituated to burning fossil fuels, because that's reality. Continuing to burn fossil fuels and dump the resulting greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere will severely damage civilization or perhaps even destroy it. If people are hostile to reality, then we have to solve that problem before we can make any headway. If a patient has cancer and needs chemotherapy, it's bad news any way you slice it.
Taking a non-rosy view of religion enabled writers like Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, Christopher Hitchens, Sam Harris, and many others to sell millions of books. The fastest-growing "religion" in America today is "none." We have an opening here to accelerate a trend that is already well underway. The "Nones" typically vote Democrat, which correlates with being more likely to accept the scientific reality of man-made climate change. The available evidence suggests that talking people out of faith is one way to make them more likely to support action against climate change. Given the overwhelming support for Trump among white Evangelical voters, talking them out of their faith may be the most productive way to make progress on climate change.
Consider that the magnitude of mind-change is similar for abandoning religion and fossil fuels. People are deeply attached to both of these bad habits because they have spent a lifetime being indoctrinated into them. If you can get people to question their faith in the religion of their childhood, then they have made the same type of cognitive headway they must make to question their faith in fossil fuels. It's probably easier to talk people out of religion, given that millions of Americans are abandoning it - how many people are abandoning fossil fuels yet?
All religious people have doubts. Even the sainted Mother Teresa struggled with doubt during her life. Some fraction of religious professionals have lost their faith, and are just faking it to keep getting paid and to maintain family and community ties.
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Daniel Mocsny at 04:58 AM on 2 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
chriskoz @11: I do not confuse the fossil fuel and religion industries. Rather, I note that their interests have increasingly aligned in recent US elections. To believe the two industries "have nothing to do with each other," one must imagine this remarkable alignment of interests is purely coincidental. For evidence of shared values and their deliberate construction, read the book: One Nation Under God: How Corporate America Invented Christian America. There are several similar books. Expect more to come out once commentators have digested the implications of the Trump win and the overwhelming support for the profane and immoral Trump from white Evangelical Christians.
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william5331 at 03:37 AM on 2 January 20172016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #53
China is dominating the solar industry, primarily because she thinks in decades, centuries and even milenia. Our governments think in election cycles and our businesses in quarterly reports. Besides our politicians are to a large extent in the pockets of vested interests. Get money out of politics and at least on barrier to some sensible decisions will have been removed.
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JohnFornaro at 00:52 AM on 2 January 2017Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
Composer99: "If you want to get down to brass tacks, you can sum up the basic fact of global warming with a single number:
0.6 W/m²
Everything else is commentary."
I'm not getting your 0.6 W/m² figure. The anthropogenic RF is between 1.13 W/m² and 3.33 W/m², by my understanding, if the following figures are correct.
From:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_constant
"The solar constant includes all types of solar radiation, not just the visible light. It is measured by satellite as being 1.361 kilowatts per square meter (kW/m²) at solar minimum and approximately 0.1% greater (roughly 1.362 kW/m²) at solar maximum. The solar "constant" is not a physical constant in the modern CODATA scientific sense; it varies in value, and has been called a "misconception". It has been shown to vary historically in the past 400 years over a range of less than 0.2 percent."
From: WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf, page 11:
"The total anthropogenic RF for 2011 relative to 1750 is 2.29 [1.13 to 3.33] W/m² (see Figure SPM.5), and it has increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades."
For conversational purposes:
1.13/1,362 is: .083%
2.29/1,362 is: .168%
3.33/1,362 is: .246%While mankind's percentage contribution is pretty small compared to Mr. Sun, if these percentages are true, we do seem to be warming the planet, and shekels to bagels it doesn't stop anytime soon.
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chriskoz at 19:32 PM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Daniel Mocsny@9,
Since uncritical faith in the words of men is the basis for America's $1 trillion religion industry, eradicating the fossil fuel industry might require eradicating (or at least greatly diminishing) the religion industry, by persuading people to put their trust in facts and evidence.
You confuse FF industry with "religion industry". They are different industries and their interests are often different. Maybe interests of mormonism or evengelical christianism in US that you give as examples do overlap with FF interests but first, these are not the only religions, second the reasons people are coming and "trusting" those two industries are fundamentally different. People trust religion, because they want rationalise the existential questions they don't know the answer or fear the answer (like fear of death), while the same people trust FF, because they want to have energy to fuel their lifestyle. One has nothing to do with each other and eradication of the later (to combat AGW) does not imply eradication of the former (if you want to reform religion or replace religion by other rationalisative mechanism).
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:44 PM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
william #7
Rosy? I suspect that is intentional. Trying to use a non-rosy view of religion isn't likely to help you with communicating to people who are religious. And lets be quite clear. Katharine has set herself a specific task - communicating to that demographic. -
Daniel Mocsny at 14:29 PM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
william @7: the "rosy" view of religion's relationship to science has a name: NOMA, or "non-overlapping magisteria of authority." Stephen Jay Gould coined the term and described it in his (lamentable, in my view) book Rocks of Ages: Science and Religion in the Fullness of Life.
NOMA is essentially the official position of the National Academy of Sciences.
NOMA has been heavily criticized by a number of prominent scientists, philosphers, etc., including Richard Dawkins, whose book The God Delusion gives it a working over.
The claim that "religion has nothing to say about climate change" is a category error. (It's similar to claiming that nothing about climate change could feature in a J.K. Rowling novel - which is nonsense, because Rowling can write whatever she wants in her novels.) To understand the error, we have to understand what religion is. To understand what religion is, we need only look at where religious knowledge comes from, by posing the question to a religious believer: "What do you know about God (or spirituality, etc.) that you did not learn from men?"
Very few people claim to have received a religious revelation directly from God or from some supernatural source. There is, to my knowledge, no documented case of any two people independently receiving the same religious revelation, identical in all respects. For example, if you make first contact with some tribe in the Amazon rainforest, there is zero chance that they will have independently received even an approximate copy of the Bible (or a copy of any religious group's doctrine or theology) directly from the alleged source (God). If you find a tribesperson with a Bible, you know it had to come from missionaries or someone else who in turn got it from a long chain of middlemen tracing back to the original writers, redactors, editors, and compilers of the Bible. It wouldn't have come from "God" revealing the same thing twice to different people who had no prior knowledge, because that never happens.
Religious people, therefore, do not put their trust in "God," but rather in some particular man or group of men who tell them some particular set of claims about God. Believers put their faith in whatever their religious leaders tell them to believe. As religious claims are unconstrained by any requirement for evidence, the claims of various religious groups are as diverse as human imagination itself. If some religious leader wants to make a religious claim about climate change - just as many religious leaders make claims about the age of the Earth and whether humans share a common ancestor with turnips - he is perfectly free to do so. Just as Joseph Smith, founder of Mormonism, was free to claim that the second coming of Jesus would occur at Jackson County, Missouri.
For comparison, suppose I claim Elvis Presley is still alive and he told me to tell everyone to give me all their money. If someone accepts my claim and gives me all their money, who does that person believe?
- Elvis, or
- Me
Even if I somehow persuade a million people to repeat my claim, anyone who accepts the claim is still placing their faith in me, not in Elvis. There is no option to believe Elvis, because Elvis has not verifiably shown up to make any claim. You can only choose to believe, or not believe, a real person who verifiably shows up and claims something. However, for me to qualify as a religious leader, rather than just a swindler, I must convince my followers that they have placed their faith in Elvis, rather than in me. Every religious person you talk to on this point will be deeply confused about where they have actually placed their faith, thus demonstrating the triumph of religion over reason. Religion benefits from the common human tendency to be better at remembering claims than at tracking their sources. It's easier for people to say "God wants me to do X" than the more accurate "My pastor tells me that God wants me to do X."
Given that America's white Evangelical Christians just voted for Trump in a higher proportion than they've voted for any Presidential candidate before, and given that Trump appears to be waging war on climate science, Occam's Razor suggests a productive strategy for fighting climate change is to talk people out of putting their uncritical faith in the mere words of men. Since uncritical faith in the words of men is the basis for America's $1 trillion religion industry, eradicating the fossil fuel industry might require eradicating (or at least greatly diminishing) the religion industry, by persuading people to put their trust in facts and evidence.
A religion like Mormonism relies on getting millions of people to take seriously claims as unlikely as the one about Jesus returning to Jackson County, Missouri. But all religions make equally far-fetched claims - some just do a better job of disguising them. It's hard to imagine humans are going to tackle tough problems like climate change, and whatever as-yet-undiscovered environmental catastrophes are coming next, as long as we have a trillion-dollar industry actively working to destroy peoples' reasoning capacities (and starting on them at very young ages).
Sure, a few religious people subscribe to creation care philosophies. But in the USA - a nation critical to Earth's climate future - religion appears to be mostly an obstacle to long-term human survival.
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nigelj at 05:59 AM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Altruism has benefits including helping people and promoting stability and peace, and it brings a sense of satisfaction as well. Many people seem drawn to altruism, maybe most at some level. Many societies have experimented with altruism. The Soviet Union tried, but their society was based on a flawed model. Scandinavia has got the balance better with good results.
However like Chriskoz says evolution of altruism by competition between nations slows down in a globalising world. The lessons and advantages of spacific nation states become diluted.
But societies at either the national or global level can still consciously choose altruism just as they can consciously choose climate policies. In democracies the will of the majority ultimately tends to prevail, and in a global average sense seems to currently favour an emerging if somewhat limited altruism.
We do seem to be slowly heading towards a global common humanity and morality with a recognition altruism is important. Of course more self interested motivations have their place as well, and it may be about finding a workable balance.
However some people oppose altruism. We have people like Rush Limbaugh and Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and others, using either misleading rhetoric or fake news. This poor quality information makes it hard for voters to make informed choices. Last year the battle lines were drawn most firmly in America.
But other countries do not have to follow America.
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william5331 at 04:36 AM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
I love her videos on climate change but that is a very rosy view of religion.
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PluviAL at 03:35 AM on 1 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Chrikoz@3,
Love your take, without the pejoratives and jusdgements on others. Your bottom line is what I like: We must develop a global perspective.
I think we are in the process of doing that, and really, one could say this is the point of the video. Our perspective is tribalistic and religious: That's how our conception of political reality and divinity has been honed; from Gilgamesh to current Abrahamics, and Eastern Strains it's what we could put together without the scientific method and subsequent tool.
Now with a scientific perspective, it is time to create a new awareness of a common humanity, and a common morality. We are on the way, this website, and this video attest to this quest.
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WRyan at 02:11 AM on 1 January 20172016 in Review: a recap of what happened at Skeptical Science
The research component of John's Honours degree was in solar physics.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 21:30 PM on 31 December 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
newairly
As far as I know, no. Internet only. -
chriskoz at 18:47 PM on 31 December 20162016 in Review: a recap of what happened at Skeptical Science
John Cook has another degree in solar physics, and I recall it's also PhD although I don't know the subject of his dissertation there. So, to fully acknowledge John's credentials we should call him "Double Dr" now. Congratulations, John.
Moderator Response:[BW] From what is currently stated on the About Us page (which we'll obviously have to update!):
"Skeptical Science was created and maintained by John Cook, the Climate Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland. He originally obtained a Bachelor of Science at the University of Queensland, achieving First Class Honours with a major in physics."
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nigelj at 13:35 PM on 31 December 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Chriskoz @3, I agree with all that. A lot to ponder over. An interesting related book is "The Moral Arc" by Michael Shermer. -
Digby Scorgie at 11:15 AM on 31 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
For pity's sake, nigelj, stop omitting necessary apostrophes. It is really, really irritating. I'm referring particularly to "cant" and "wont" and "dont", but you also have a cavalier attitude to "its" and "it's".
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chriskoz at 11:00 AM on 31 December 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
nigelj@1,
That's a very interesting topic.
Altruism in a group has indeed developped as an evolutionary adaptation: group's survival odds turned out to be, in some cases, more important than the individual's selfish & competitive desire to pass their rown genes. After few trials and errors (no doubt involving eradication of "selfish" groups, as well as overwhelmingly "altruistic" groups), those groups that developed a perfect balance of altruism vs. classic darwinian survival of the fittest strategy, survived.
Now, how can we apply that knowledge to find out the solution to AGW problem, which is not an environmental but a social problem? Surely, we must find social solutions to it. Here, in XXI century, we have a global civilisation consisting of 7bln sofisticated, predatory individuals whose immediate survival strategy is a typical darwinian survival of the fittest. Their altruism is often limitted towards their immediate and extended familly, to pass on their genes. Then, for many of them, the next altruistic level is the well being of their friends, neighbouring community (like a church community in case of Katharine), then entrire town/county. Vast majority of people never goes, not even understands the altruism past this level. Those who do (local politicians) often fail, e.g. encumbered by corruption. Then, we have the countries (almost 200 of them) as the largest groups. Here, the moral standards are even more shaky, vulnerable to all sort of conflict of interest and encumbered by individualistic predatory thought process. The failures can be even more spectacular. This past year, we had two big failures in politcs at this level: the election of a serial criminal in Philipines and the election of an inept but self-boasting liar and sexual predator with a brain of 12y o child in US. I hope, after president Obama, that it's just a circuitous path this nation decided to take, and it will learn from, and it will eventually emerge from, stronger. But the signs are pointing to even bigger problem: one major polical party denies most environmental sciences like Flat Earth Society, and president-elect shares that denial.
From above examples, you can see the "natural evolution" did not develop adequate group morality at the national level. Now, what about hte morality needed to fix AGW problem? We have only one global civilisation "supergroup", and evolutionary trial and error approach does not apply at this level. You would need to have an "alternative" civilisation that would develop different standard allowing it to survive while the primary civilisation fails. Unfortunately, it's impossible now. It was possible when we had smaller mini-civilisations in the past. Now, global civilisation (dominated by white man) has ransacked all planetary resources and pushed alternative civilisations into oblivion.
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newairly at 10:16 AM on 31 December 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Does anyone know if this series is on free to air TV in Australia?
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nigelj at 09:33 AM on 31 December 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Katharine argues that the science can only describe the nature of the climate problem and suggest technical solutions, and religion can offer moral guidance on what we do.
Well the new testament does talk some real sense on morality, however science also provides some guidance on morality. (decaration of personal interest, Im an athiest) Altruistic behaviour and looking after people is a trait in early human societies, and even the animal world sometimes, which suggests basic morality has an evolutionary adaptation, with biological origins. I would suggest its one we should not ignore. However its clear that not all people have this altrustic tendency.
However if anything this shows that the new testament and science are speaking the same language at least on some aspects of morality.
It certainly doesnt seem moral to lock in many centuries of sea level rise when renewable energy is dropping fast in price and is eminently affordable now.
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nigelj at 07:41 AM on 31 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
KeenOn350, I totally understand your frustration. The way scientists talk in probabilities and conditionality may be fustrating, but its also the truth about various issues. We should not distort the truth. Hopefully most people can understand thats the way science does work on the basis of probabilities.
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nigelj at 06:48 AM on 31 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
One Planet Only @15,
"If there is an Engineering Solution it should have to be developed, implemented and proven to be effective before the action to obtain benefit started"
Yes that makes sense. I think we would want proof of viability and to ensure profit is not made out of some fantasy scheme, purely for the benefit off the shareholders.
However personally I dont think engineering solutions like carbon capture or more ambitious geoengineering solutions have much practical viability, and some have high risks as well. I know technology has produced great feats, but we cant assume this ability is infinite. Even if we find a workable engineering solution, it would be too late to stop dangerous climate change, so our first priority should be reducing emissions, with engineering solutions as a second order of priority.
"It is common sense that the people who will benefit from an activity should be required to create and pay for any mitigation/adaptation to the changes that the actions. Another way of saying it is that no portion of humanity should benefit in a way that negatively affects other members of humanity, including future generations'.
It is indeed commonsense, and its also recognised by economists that environmental impacts should be either prohibited, or user pays principles should apply. In fact society mostly (but certainly not all) recognise this. Currently we are mostly all using oil, and this impacts negatively on the environment. The obvious solution is a carbon tax that would reduce oil use and also pay for some degree of the problems.
Things get more difficult with climate change because we are considering such a long term issue that get harder to quantify so easier to ignore.
Several factors are at work: Business interests can become very orientated on short term goals, very avaricious and neglect costs that are far in the future.
People get scared that they might face high costs now to protect something far in the future.
Some people are very fixated on the present and their personal rights. Some people are narcissistic and self centred, while others have more of a big picture natural concern about the future. These are psychological issues that divide society, and its really important to grasp this.
What we have to do is bring narcissistic people into line and make them see we need to consider the bigger picture. We need to demonstrate that it's ultimately in their interests to leave a decent planet for their children. We need to show that the costs of dealing with climate change are just not as large as the scaremongers claim.
"And an international body like the UN would monitor/audit all of the nations and identify which nations have leadership that is failing to be objectively effective."
Yes in an ideal world. The UN is the ideal organisation to regulate some global form of environmental standards. They also do see the big picture. But you know what certain people will say, "world government, nanny state, anti capitalist etc" and this is so frustrating.
However we need global agreements and standards, and a way needs to be found to do this that ensures the UN has power, but is also accountable and properly democratically constrained. Its got to be a balance between the central power of the UN, and countries sovereignty. Somehow this riddle has to be solved and agreement reached on the proper role of the UN.
I think its inevitable and useful that global agreeements will become more significant, provided they are well constructed and fair in nature, but Trump is a backwards step in this regard.
Anyway those are a few random thoughts that may be of some help. -
Gbcllc@att.net at 05:03 AM on 31 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
Last year, before La Nina we heard about the N. Pacific blob of warm water (2-4C warmer than it should be) ...
Recent forecasts, where the ocean surface temperatures indicate a weak La Nina (about 0.5C cooler) ... showed on NOAA produced maps that the "blob" had moved to be just south of the Bering strait (in November 2016) ... it seems that this warm Pacific Ocean water left over from the last El Nino (?) is heading into the Arctic, reducing the amount of seawater ice and ice thickness.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:09 AM on 31 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
KeenOn350@7,
I am an engineer with an MBA. I have been thinking about issues like climate change and global economic inequity for a long time. I was a fan of things like Fair Trade far before I became aware of the climate change issue. I became aware of the climate change issue before Kyoto made the headlines because of the changes to climate design requirements of structures and surface water managment systems. And the climate changes also increase the inequities that actions like Fair Trade try to develop truly sustainable solutions to.
As an engineer I constantly seek increased awareness and improved understanding of what is going on and strive to apply that understanding to create something that will achive a desired objective without creating unacceptable future consequences others will have to deal with.
Recent global events and this holiday break has allowed me to advance or clarify my understanding.
I am becoming more certain that it would be better for everyone to be constantly hearing:
It is unacceptable for any portion of humanity to benefit from an activity that ultimately is a limited opportunity, like the burning up of buried ancient hydrocabons, or an activity that creates challenges and problems others will have to deal with, like the actions associated with the exctraction, transport, processing, and burning up of buried ancient hydrocabons.
The preface for that constant reminder message to everyone would be:
The aspiration/objective of human life is to help advance global humanity to be a part of a lasting better future for all life on this or any other amazing planet.
And the concluding reminder would be the understanding that:
'The freedom of everyone to believe what they wish and do as they please is the best way for things to be', only applies if everyone is honestly dedicated to helping to advance humanity to that lasting better future.
That set of constant reminders would annoy and disappoint some people, but they would have to admit they deserve to be annoyed and disappointed until they change their minds and become more helpful, less harmful.
And all the leaders/winnersaround the globe, and anyone aspiring to be a leader/winner, would be expected to be the ones delivering those constant reminders that annoy, disappoint and discourage those who deserve it. And any leader (wealthy, influential, in business or politics), who can be shown to fail to honestly dedicate themselves to that task of promoting awareness and better understanding of the changes required to honestly advance humanity deserves to be removed from their position of leadership, wealth or influence (until they prove that they have changed their minds and decided to become helpful rather than harmful regarding the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all).
There clearly are many issues deserving increased awarness and the changing of minds about developed social and economic activity and attitudes, far more than just climate change. Perhaps a 'punchier' way of referring to every instance could be to say they are one of the many fronts of the 'War for the Future of Humanity'.
Perhaps that would help everyone fighting on one of those fronts see more of a connection between their actions and all of the other fronts, like the connection between Fair Trade and Climate Change, or the connection between the design of safe structures and Climate Change.
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KeenOn350 at 18:04 PM on 30 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
I am becoming more and more exasperated with the way scientists word their dispatches to the public.
"Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change" just doesn't do it ... every Tom, Dick, and Harriet will be saying - ahh - but it COULD have happened without climate change.
What John Q. Public ( Q. for Idiot) should hear is simply - this insane warmth in the Arctic could not happen without human-caused climate change! - PERIOD.
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One Planet Only Forever at 16:46 PM on 30 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
In my comment @15 I also copy-pasted the text and forgot to insert a couple of links:
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One Planet Only Forever at 16:41 PM on 30 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
Late editing of the second paragraph in my comment at 15, too late at night, has produced the expected result. Here is a revised 2nd paragraph.
"The follow points related to the above quote from the OP need to addressed. If there is an Engineering Solution shouldn't it have to be developed, implemented and proven to be effective before the action to obtain benefit is allowed to be started (to ensure that the ones benefiting have not done something that others would suffer the consequences of - the fundamental role of a Professional Engineer in Canada)? Who pays the cost?"
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One Planet Only Forever at 16:37 PM on 30 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
"Tillerson has argued that climate change is “an engineering problem and it has engineering solutions.” In other words, that we can keep burning fossil fuels, and solve the problem through adaptation efforts. However, research is quite clear that while we’ll need a combination of mitigation and adaptation, relying primarily on adaptation would be exceptionally costly.”
The follow points related to the above quote from the OP need to addressed. If there is an Engineering Solution it should have to be developed, implemented and proven to be effective before the action to obtain benefit started (to ensure that the ones benefiting have not done something that others would suffer the consequences of - the fundamental role of a Professional Engineer in Canada)? Who pays the cost?
The second question is easy to answer. It is common sense that the people who will benefit from an activity should be required to create and pay for any mitigation/adaptation to the changes that the actions they hope to benefit from will create. They should also be the only ones to suffer any potential negative consequences. Another way of saying it is that no portion of humanity should benefit in a way that negatively affects other members of humanity, including future generations.
Until global humanity develops the ability to effectively defend its future we will likely continue to continue to see popularity and profitability that is successfully detrimental to the future of humanity.
The UN is currently the main international body trying to achieve the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all. The UN is undeniably prone to influence from parties interested in actions contrary to the advancement of global humanity. However, it has a history of trying to advance humanity (and that history has also made it a target for people who have interests that are contrary to the advancement of humanity).
The 1987 UN Report “Our Common Future” strives to encourage the understanding of what needs to change to advance humanity to a lasting better future (a particularly contrite point is made in paragraphs 25 and 26 on page 16 of the pdf file). The more recent UN Millennium Development Goals are additional evidence that the UN collectively strives to advance humanity to a lasting better future.
Some people will not like that objective based understanding of what is required. But objectively they will not be able to justify their objection. The wealthiest and most powerful particularly have little excuse to not understand it. That is why the least deserving among the wealthy and powerful can be seen to be trying to get away with promoting the popularity of things like 'people free to believe whatever they prefer to believe, and do whatever they want to do, as the best way for things to be' or 'everyone else is against us'. That ideology is popular because it is ignorant of any requirement for responsibility. Responsibility gets to be considered completely independently by declaring things like 'anyone less fortunate or suffering some consequence is responsible for the situation they are in and the challenges they face'. That paired-up impaired way of thinking is a perfect delusion/excuse for the fossil fuel crowd. They get to do as they wish. And others are responsible for dealing with any negative consequences (Trump's Art of the Deal in a nutshell - set up the deal to ensure you maximize your benefit and that others suffer any negative consequences).
For the first question, as an Engineer with an MBA I suggest the following Business-Minded/Engineering solution.
Engineering is the pursuit of the greatest possible awareness and understanding of what is going on and applying that understanding to achieve an acceptable objective result.
My understanding of the objective result is “Advancement of Humanity to a lasting better future for all”. And my Business-Minded awareness and understanding is that business is driven by the pursuit of maximum benefit, and by minimum risk of loss by the one hoping to get the benefit.
Maximum benefit is often achieved by getting something done quicker/cheaper (both of which usually increase the risk of producing a damaging consequence or increasing the disadvantage of a worker by giving less reward for work done or making the work riskier to do). Maximum benefit can also be enhanced by successfully creating perceptions among the population (deceptive marketing).
Minimizing risk of loss means doing things in a way that reaps benefits for as long as can be gotten away with in the least acceptable way, and rigging things so that others will face any consequences (like future generations having to 'Engineer' a solution for a bigger challenge).
Often the only effective restrictions on Business activity are leadership actions that curtail understandably/objectively unacceptable pursuits.
So the engineering challenge is to increase the awareness and understanding in the global population, especially among leadership hopefuls, that there is no significant chance that people will succeed if they try to get away with benefiting from actions that can be understood to be contrary to the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all.
Popularity and profitability have been conclusively proven to fail to restrict understandably unacceptable behaviour. What has been proven is that the more popular or profitable an activity is able to become the more challenging it is to curtail it. The climate change challenge is probably the most significant case proving that point.
Before the climate change challenge developed there were many other cases where external actions were required to curtail understandably unacceptable developed popular and profitable pursuits. Many of the understood to be unacceptable activities, like expanding nuclear weapon capabilities, still continue to be potentially profitable and popular.
Business and Political leadership can be significantly influenced by popularity and profit. That makes every business enterprise and sovereign nation a potential threat requiring external actions to limit behaviour that is damaging to the advancement of humanity. And the target of effective action needs to be the the trouble-making leaders, the people with the most power and influence would gain the most from the understood to be unacceptable actions.
The popularity and profitability of burning fossil fuels is so significant that the understood Engineering Solution (action to achieve a desired objective result based on the best understanding of things) would be a global agreement that all nations be required to monitor and effectively restrict the actions of their citizens based on the objective of advancing global humanity. And an international body like the UN would monitor/audit all of the nations and identify which nations have leadership that is failing to be objectively effective. International external action would then be taken to try to 'correct' the failings of the leadership of that nation. And large multi-national corporations would probably need to be audited as if they were a nation-state since their leadership could come from many different nations making it difficult for a single nation to be effectively responsible for the leadership of such an entity.
That type of action is understandably an 'ideal' that is unlikely to ever be achieved, but as with all things - aspiring to do the best is the best way to achieve a good result.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:33 AM on 30 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
Also blew it when trying to embellish the folowing part of my comment@4. The following is a better presentation.
"I am not skilled at creating and presenting graphs. So I offer the following presentation of the sea ice extents relative to the ONI events and their relative intensity (L, M, H). I have included the approximate annual minimum the NSIDC Charctic Graph as well as the September Average from NASA. Extents are are in million square km presented following each year (Min from NSIDC Charctic - September average from the NASA graphic; The closer these values are the flatter/broader the minimum extent was through September):"
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:26 AM on 30 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
Missed a link in my comment@4
"A good presentation of the relevant data would be to superimpose the Arctic Sea Ice Extent graph (the one from NASA) on an inverted presentation of Jan Null's ONI graph (inverted so that El Nino is down)."
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:17 AM on 30 December 2016Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change
chrickoz@2,
I made comments about minimum Arctic Sea Ice extents occuring in the years following an El Nino event. Looking at El Nino events based on the ONI presentation by NOAA there appears to be a related pattern in the minimum summer Arctic Sea Ice extents presented by NSIDC in the Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph. The minimum sea ice extent appears to be significantly below the trend line of Arctic Minimum one or two years after an El Nino event.Based on my crude evaluation of the magnitude and duration of the ONI values for the different events the most significant (H) ONI value events since near the 1979 beginning of the NSIDC presentation were: 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2014/15/16. The next group of moderately significant (M) ONI value events were: 1986/87/88, 1991/92, 2002/3, 2009/10. And the last group of least significant (L) ONI value events were: 1976/77, 1977/78, 1979/80, 1994/95, 2004/5, and 2006/7.
I have since confrimed my crude evaluation is consistent with the more detailed evaluation El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities based on the ONI values prepared maintained and presented by Jan Null.
A good presentation of the relevant data would be to superimpose the Arctic Sea Ice Extent graph (the one from NASA) on an inverted presentation of Jan Null's ONI graph (inverted so that El Nino is down).
But I am not skilled at creating and presenting graphs. So I offer the following presentation of the sea ice extents relative to the ONI events and their relative intensity (L, M, H) with the approximate yearly minimum Arctic Sea Ice from the NSIDC and the September Average from NASA extent in million square km as the value near inside the (Min from NSIDC - Sept form NASA; The closer the values are the flatter/broader the minimum extent was through September):
- 1976/77 (L)
- 1977/78 (L) - No NSIDC ice extents prior to 1979
- 1979/80 (L) - 1979 (7.0 - 7.19), 1980 (7.6-7.83)
- 1981 (7.0- 7.24)
- 1982/83 (H) - 1982 (7.2-7.44), 1983 (7.3-7.61)
- 1984 (6.5-7.10)
- 1985 (6.6-6.91)
- 1986/87/88 (M) - 1986 (7.2-7.53), 1987 (7.0-7.47), 1988 (7.2-7.48)
- 1989 (7.0-7.03)
- 1990 (6.1-6.23)
- 1991/92 (M) - 1991 (6.40-6.54), 1992 (7.3-7.54)
- 1993 (6.3-6.50)
- 1994/95 (L) - 1994 (7.0-7.18), 1995 (6.1-6.12)
- 1996 (7.3-7.87)
- 1997/98 (H) - 1997 (6.7-6.73), 1998 (6.4-6.55)
- 1999 (5.9-6.23)
- 2000 (6.1-6.31)
- 2001 (6.7-6.74)
- 2002/3 (M) - 2002 (5.7-5.95), 2003 (6.1-6.13)
- 2004/5 (L) - 2004 (5.9-6.04), 2005 (5.4-5.56)
- 2006/7 (L) - 2006 (5.9-5.91), 2007 (4.3-4.29)
- 2008 (4.7-4.72)
- 2009/10 (M) - 2009 (5.2-5.38), 2010 (4.7-4.92)
- 2011 (4.4-4.61)
- 2012 (3.4-3.62)
- 2013 (5.1-5.35)
- 2014/15/16 (H) - 2014 (5.1-5.28), 2015 (4.5-4.63), 2016 (4.2-4.72)
- 2017 - Yet to be seen
Low events that occur one or two years after an El Nino are:
- 1984 and 1985 following the 1982/83 (H) event
- 1990 following the 1986/87/88 (M) event
- 1993 following 1991/92 (M) event
- 1999 and 2000 following the 1997/98 (H) event
- 2007 and 2008 following the series of 2002/3, 2004/5, 2006/7 (L) events
- 2011 and 2012 following the 2009/10 (M) event
1996 is a year that clearly does not fit the pattern of low extents one or two years after an El Nino. This could be because the 1994/95 event was a very weak El Nino followed by a La Nina in 1995/96.
If a pattern similar to the years following the 2009/2010 occurs then the Arctic Sea Ice minimum in 2017 will be lower than 2016 and the minimum in 2018 could be even lower, potentially setting a new record minimum, especially if La Nina does not develop.
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nigelj at 09:52 AM on 30 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
Michael Sweet @13, I agree totally. Rush Lindburgh makes my blood boil. I just didn't want to annoy people by singling out a particular ideological group, and getting into a rant as such. However even this website has acknowledged the Conservative movement has certain characteristics seen in various polls.
In fact I do think lack of trust in institutions a combination of things that we have both mentioned. The CIA and politicans let us down over Iraq, and even some Republicans probably quietly felt that, but their reaction could be to only distrust the CIA when it suits them, if you understand me.
"Will they wish they had voted for Clinton's retraining instead of Trump's promises that they would get their jobs back?"
One hopes so. Coal is on the way out and I feel globalisation is essentially a good thing, with some rough edges. Clinton had sensible policies to mitigate the negative side of globalisation and general job losses, like retraining. My country has relocation grants for poor people and family assistance. This can be designed in a dignified way that avoids a sense of dependence.
Trump wants to go down the alternative protectionist route which seems flawed for too many reasons to state here.
Will they wish they had gone with Clinton? I hope they realise this, but you know what? It will all become a confused mess where cause and effect become blurred and scapegoats get blamed.
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There's no empirical evidence
HB #324:
"...we can assume that a gas that is not a heat source, is the cause of high temperature?
I would choose almost any other explanation than that. All of them would include heat generation of some sort. Since that is what it takes to heat something up."Really?
The temperature of a system (a planet, a house or whatever you like) can be raised just as much by decreasing the heat loss as increasing the heat gain. That’s exactly what thick clothes, fur, feathers and house insulation do. None of these are able to generate heat by themselves, but they can still raise the temperature by preventing heat loss from the system, provided that the system has a heat source to begin with, like the sun.Let’s suppose that the high temperature on Venus really was caused by some kind of heat generation, and not atmospheric insulation as the standard greenhouse theory claims. What would we observe if this was true?
A surface temperature of 735 K corresponds to an IR flux of ~16,500 W/m2. All this radiation should escape to space and be very easy to detect, especially by space probes like the Venera series, Magellan, Venus Express and so on.
Here’s a spectrum of Venus obtained by Venera 15 (bottom). You find the same figure on page 4 here.
I did a rough estimate of the "area under the curve" for Venus, and came up with about 55 W/m2. Note that the flux is given as W/m2 per steradian (sr), so we have to multiply this by pi, which gives us ~173 W/m2.
This is in good agreement with the amount of solar energy absorbed by Venus when distance, spherical shape and albedo are accounted for (assuming an albedo of 75%).So, where is the rest of those 16,500 Watts that you claim is generated on Venus?
Have they just disappeared in thin air, violating the first law of thermodynamics in that process?
Or is your "theory" about Venus completely wrong, and the high temperature actually caused by an insulating atmosphere that allows only about 1% of the surface radiation to escape to space?
Your "theory" has a huge hole in it! -
michael sweet at 09:19 AM on 30 December 2016Facts matter, and on climate change, Trump's picks get them wrong
Nigelj,
I agree that trust in institutions is low and is a big problem. I see the source somewhat differently. Most of the "fake news' in the last election was directed at conservatives. Progressives were not as susceptable (they were not completely free of taint). I think the issue is talk radio and Fox news. Fact checker for Rush Limbaugh has been described as the easiest job in the world. People who listen to these sources have many false beliefs. Many still believe weapons of mass distruction were found in Iraq, have questions about Obama's birth certificate, think unemployment went up under Obama, the stock market went down and that the debt was larger under Obama than Bush.
The ability of business to buy whatever "news" they want in America, a first amendment right, leads to monied interests paying for fake stories. During the Bush administration I recall a top aide saying that reality was whatever they wated it to be. Eventually reality exloded in their faces. It took them only 4 years to rebuild their fake reality to hold back Obama.
It will be interesting to see what coal miners say after four years. Their jobs are gone forever. Coal is too expensive. Will they wish they had voted for Clinton's retraining instead of Trump's promises that they would get their jobs back?
We will eventually fid out. Trump will try to blame Obama.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 07:50 AM on 30 December 2016Models are unreliable
ramprasad
Here are some climate scientists discussing climate models:
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