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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 21451 to 21500:

Paul D at 05:40 AM on 18 January 2017

Fact Check: Rex Tillerson on Climate Risks

On the issue of Rex Tillerson, the Channel 4 (UK) Dispatches documentary (link below, although not sure what availability is outside the UK) suggests that the coal industry in the US is a bigger issue. I found the programme disturbing. Tillerson is also discussed in the programme.

President Trump's Dirty Secrets

Can't help thinking there are parrallels between Donald Trump and Damien in The Omen series of movies.
Damien Trump anyone !?

Paul D at 05:30 AM on 18 January 2017

Fact Check: Rex Tillerson on Climate Risks

What is the opinion of commentors of this event?

Ice crack to put UK Antarctic base in shut-down

Is the second crack at the Brunt ice shelf an indication of warming and that the shelf is likely to break up sooner than thought?
The scientists seem to suggest the risks are marginal, but they are not taking any risks just in case.

Ravenken at 04:10 AM on 18 January 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #2

+Eclectic... got that right... sad part is, we need global dimming or... :-/

michael sweet at 04:08 AM on 18 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

Renaissance Man,

Denial Depot has an entire post on how Skeptical Science adjusts graphs like you state. Perhaps you can elaborate on how the CO2 graph should be made. Of course, it is a sham science site, but it has funny stuff.

I teach Science in High School and College and if a student were to submit the CO2 graph with zero in the Y axis I would take off points because they did not fill the page with their graph. You are mistaken with your assertion that the zero has to be included. Read the linked post to see how your argument looks carried to its logical conclusion.

CO2 is the thermostat that sets where the concentration of water in the atmosphere is. Water follows the CO2.

RenaissanceMan at 03:45 AM on 18 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

Tom Curtis@212:

"The misnamed RenaissanceMan...."

I could have sworn I read rules for this forum that ad hominem attacks were forbidden. Obviously that restriction does not apply to the "97%."

Tom Curtis has not the slightest basis for claiming that my good friend, who has known me very well for many years "misnamed" me. Tom has no basis; my good friend has a very broad and familiar basis indeed.

""Basically it's a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization. The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War. Why? Because we have 11,000 gigatons of carbon in the coal reserves in the soil under our feet - and we must emit only 400 gigatons in the atmosphere if we want to keep the 2-degree target. 11 000 to 400 - there is no getting around the fact that most of the fossil reserves must remain in the soil."

1. Do conventions at Cancun, and Davos Switzerland, and at expensive resorts all around the world, widely attended at taxpayer expense, with not just dozens, not just scores, but hundreds of private jets arriving to deliver those who claim we must all cut back on fossil fuel useage advance this essential objective of keeping fossil fuels in the ground?

2. Do the habits of such people as Barack Obama, and Al Gore, and all the Hollywood rich and famous flying everywhere in private jets, riding on their large yachts keep fossil fuels in the ground, and advance the demand that we cut back fossil fuel use by some 80%/

3. Why does every conceivable magazine which supports the 97% feature countless advertisements for foreign travel, from Sierra, to National Geographic, to Audubon, to all of them?

4. Increasingly onerous restrictions, fees, cap and trade, and other actions drive up the cost of electricity and travel for even the poorest people worldwide. President Obama even bragged that his policies would double the cost of electricity. How can anyone support these reprehensible actions? People in Haiti resorted to eating dirt pies after the cost of corn skyrocketed due to its demand for ethanol.

5. "Ecotour" - a one-word oxymoron, an indefensible pretense.

RenaissanceMan at 03:30 AM on 18 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

MARoger@211:

[snip]

"The choice of vertical scale on a graph of CO2 concentrations is hardily science. "

The root word for science is "scientia," Latin for knowledge. An essential component of knowledge is the accurate and honest presentation of such knowledge. The choice of presenting data to skew the slope of a graph can be demonstrated by a graph of a population explosion with a base of 1,000,000 and a top at 1,000,001, sharply sloping upward.

"And the relative position of a red line on a piece of paper does not determine the contribution of CO2 on global climate forcing. The atmospheric levels of CO2 presented on both of your graphs is roughly consistent (you appear to plot CO2 some 50ppm too high on the lower graph) and it is atmospheric levels which determine forcing."

As to CO2 being "forcing," infrared radiation is absorbed by water vapor and by carbon dioxide in virtually identical spectra, which I shall not bother to reproduce here.

"Yet you accuse the Keeling Curve of having an "unscientific nature." Have you any reason for such a claim? Setting out your claims in scientific terms would be the proper thing to do, if you are able."

I explained the etiology of the word "science" above, and for many I suspect this is their first such exposure. Your condescension, "if you are able," was conveniently overlooked by the moderator(s) who seem eager to jump on anyone posting a word contrary to the "97%". Elsewhere I am called a "denier" and the moderator ignored this blatant violation of the "rules" I just read. The moderator also ignored the religious reference by that same poster which I shall address more specifically in another post.

Finally, I am forbidden by the rules here from stating why I believe the Keeling Curve (1) has a steep slope, based on its non-zero base, and (2) based on its failure to include the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor.

Moderator Response:

[RH] Snipped for condescending tone. Trust me. People here know the definition of the word "science." Please, either raise the level of the conversation to one worth of science or risk further deleted comments.

jja at 02:59 AM on 18 January 2017

Parts of United States are heating faster than globe as a whole

Dr. Bob Kopp led a study for the 'Risky Business' project with an update a few years ago that indicated that extreme heat and humidity impacts in the Unites States was most likely to occur in the Ohio River Valley region. The timelines for these impacts appear to be significantly delayed given the rapid warming we have experienced in the last 3 years. If this trend continues then the likely impacts should be accelerated by several decades.

more information here:

http://www.bobkopp.net/150607-nyt-humidity/

boba10960 at 01:01 AM on 18 January 2017

Fact Check: Rex Tillerson on Climate Risks

Not to detract from concern about Tillerson, but one needs to be careful not to equate the Gulf Stream with AMOC. The Gulf Stream transports five to ten times more water as it leaves North America off Nova Scotia than the amount of water involved in AMOC. The rest of the water carried by the Gulf Stream constitutes ocean recirculation, including the subtropical North Atlantic Gyre. Consequently, northern Europe would continue to benefit from ocean heat transport even were AMOC to be reduced. Consider, for example, the climate of British Columbia. The Pacific Ocean lacks a PMOC that is equivalent to AMOC, yet the combination of ocean heat capacity and gyre recirculation maintains a mild climate in Vancouver.

Paleoclimate records clearly indicate periods of abrupt cooling in Europe during the last glacial cycle. Many scientists attribute this to a decrease in AMOC, but a competing hypothesis is that expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic insulated the atmosphere from the ocean heat source in wintertime during these cold intervals (see, for example, Denton, G. H., R. B. Alley, G. C. Comer and W. S. Broecker (2005). "The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change." Quaternary Science Reviews 24(10-11): 1159-1182). Note that Wallace Broecker is also a co-author of the paper that advocates this sea ice hypothesis.

Tom Curtis at 00:46 AM on 18 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

The misnamed RenaissanceMan (hereafter RM) @210 quotes Ottmar Edenhofer as saying:

"One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy."

The quote is a translation of a comment Edenhoffer made in an interview, where in response to the interviewer saying:

"De facto ist das eine Enteignung der Länder mit den Bodenschätzen. Das führt zu einer ganz anderen Entwicklung als der, die bisher mit Entwicklungspolitik angestossen wurde."
{"De facto, this means an expropriation of the countries with natural resources. This leads to a very different development from that which has been triggered by development policy."}

Edenhoffer replied:

"Zunächst mal haben wir Industrieländer die Atmosphäre der Weltgemeinschaft quasi enteignet. Aber man muss klar sagen: Wir verteilen durch die Klimapolitik de facto das Weltvermögen um. Dass die Besitzer von Kohle und Öl davon nicht begeistert sind, liegt auf der Hand. Man muss sich von der Illusion freimachen, dass internationale Klimapolitik Umweltpolitik ist. Das hat mit Umweltpolitik, mit Problemen wie Waldsterben oder Ozonloch, fast nichts mehr zu tun."
{"First of all, developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community. But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole."}

(Note that the translation is by Philip Mueller, apparently for the Global Warming Policy Foundation. As that organization has repeatedly proven itself an unreliable source, I do not trust the translation, but not speaking German, must relly on it.)

Stating the obvious first, RM, or his source, has reversed the order of the two sentences he does include in the quote, and deleted three of five sentences in the paragraph, one from between the two sentences, and all without any indication of the deleted sentences existence. That sort of manipulation of other peoples words is, in academic situations considers fraud. That is because the meaning of any sentence depends on its context - and RM (or his source) completely butchers the context whilst trying to hide the fact that they have done so. So, at best RM rellies on a fraudulent source without fact checking. I note that Larry Bell similarly butchers the text in an article for Forbes. CFACT also butchers the quote, but again not in an identical form. Simon Downing also has a similar, but distinct butchering. It appears that AGW deniers are almost as bad as creationists when it comes to lying by out of context quotation. But I can find no evidence that RM is not himself an original butcher of the quote; and hence a perpetrator of a deliberate fraud.

So what is the context of the quote, and how does it effect things? Well, to begin with Edenhofer had already stated clearly, in the immediately preceding response that:

"Basically it's a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization. The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War. Why? Because we have 11,000 gigatons of carbon in the coal reserves in the soil under our feet - and we must emit only 400 gigatons in the atmosphere if we want to keep the 2-degree target. 11 000 to 400 - there is no getting around the fact that most of the fossil reserves must remain in the soil."

That is, he has clearly acknowledged the objective of climate policy, ie, to keep the increase in Global Means Surface Temperature to 2 degrees celsius or less. But in doing so, he notes that the policy necessarilly will have impacts beyond the environmental, and specifically economic impacts. He clarrifies what that means afterwords. Specifically, the choice of different responses to AGW will de facto result in different consequences for the distribution of global wealth. He has already mentioned one example in the response before that (ie, two responses before the one RM, or source, butchered):

"That will change immediately if global emission rights are distributed. If this happens, on a per capita basis, then Africa will be the big winner, and huge amounts of money will flow there. This will have enormous implications for development policy. And it will raise the question if these countries can deal responsibly with so much money at all."

I might note that the current approach, of limits on emissions as a percentage of a nations current emissions locks in higher living standards for the first world as part of the treaty system well into the future.

No reasonable climate policy can be devised without noting, and negotiating these de facto effects. But they are, as Edenhofer clearly states, even in the butchered version of the quote, de facto effects. That is, consequences that were not the intended consequence of the policy.

Moderator Response:

[PS] You know better. Please dont roll in the mud with the pigs.

Eclectic at 00:13 AM on 18 January 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #2

So, RenaissanceMan, which do you think is more insufferable: the actual physical global warming which is going on — or the hypocrisy of those who are using jet planes? Or the hypocrisy of those who conflate these two separate concepts?

Do Einstein's personal flaws mean that his Relativity ideas are wrong?

Your argument falls on its face, RenaissanceMan.

MA Rodger at 22:27 PM on 17 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

RenaissanceMan @209.

The choice of vertical scale on a graph of CO2 concentrations is hardily science. And the relative position of a red line on a piece of paper does not determine the contribution of CO2 on global climate forcing. The atmospheric levels of CO2 presented on both of your graphs is roughly consistent (you appear to plot CO2 some 50ppm too high on the lower graph) and it is atmospheric levels which determine forcing.

Yet you accuse the Keeling Curve of having an "unscientific nature." Have you any reason for such a claim? Setting out your claims in scientific terms would be the proper thing to do, if you are able.

RenaissanceMan at 22:07 PM on 17 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

Incidentally, the profound effect of water vapor on warming is clearly and demonstrably felt on cloudy nights, where water acts as a powerful blanket, warming local temperatures. The carbon dioxide concentration does not vary remotely as much as humidity, so that on cool, clear nights, the "forcing" argument is out the window, along with heat.

On a side note, another bogus claim is that "increasing ocean acidification" (sic) results from higher carbon dioxide concentrations dissolving in ocean water.

1. The ocean is not "acidic," it is alkaline. In fact, it is 18 times more alkaline than pure water. (The pH scale is logarithmic, and ocean water has a pH of ~8.2)

2. Degassification is a primary natural source of carbon dioxide. It leaves the ocean, rather than dissolving in it.

“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.” – Ottmar Edenhofer, who co-chaired the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group on Mitigation of Climate Change from 2008 to 2015

RenaissanceMan at 21:56 PM on 17 January 2017

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

"Radiative forcing" is such a contrived and meaningless term. It is simply an attempt to dismiss water vapor's dominant significance. The infrared spectra for water vapor strongly resembles that of carbon dioxide, and in fact the former is even more powerful at capturing IR radiation. The unscientific nature of the Keeling Curve reflects the author's attempt to instill fear, rather than communicate truth and knowledge. The Keeling Curve is blatantly dishonest [snip]because (1) it does not have a zero base and therefore is strongly skewed as to slope, and (2) does not include the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor.
Simply making these two adjustments changes it from this:

to this:

Moderator Response:

[RH] Please keep your images down to 500px in width.

Warnings and snips due to commenter not reading the SkS commenting policies.

RenaissanceMan at 21:39 PM on 17 January 2017

Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools

Nigelj@1: "Let’s be clear the Clinton and climategate email hacks were theft of people’s private correspondence. The thieves can’t even claim a public interest defence, or whistle blower defence, because there was no wrongdoing found in the documents."

You mean that a Democratic operative at CNN can hand over debate questions to Hillary Clinton and that doesn't represent "wrongdoing"?

Oh please. Bernie Sanders can be ousted by the joint efforts of DNC operatives who want Hillary crowned, and no "wrongdoing" there?

And on and on..

"People I know still quote climategate as if it proves the IPCC wrong. "

Why your ongoing uproar if climategate documents showed no wrongdoing? In fact, it was a major embarrassment which showed inexcusable and indefensible bias by supposed "scientists" with a very profitable "research" axe to grind.

"I don’t like the thought of Trump attempting to appease Putin any more than the way Clinton antagonised him. Both can only create all sorts of obvious problems. It would be better to maintain a sincere, respectful, but slightly detached approach."

How did you like Obama appeasing Putin in 2012: "Tell Putin I'll have more flexibility after the election," Obama said to the Russian diplomat.

And then Hillary giggled as she and a different Russian diplomat hit the little red "Reset Button" she gave him. Democrat appeasement of Russians is just fine, isn't it. But when the other side does it.... ooooo baby. Danger Will Robinson.

RenaissanceMan at 20:51 PM on 17 January 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #2

And that "other planet" would be.....?

The absurd pretense of space travel being some sort of answer to any imaginable question flies in the face of reducing carbon emissions. All that space technology consumes tons of fossil fuels all over the globe. How is it that the most ardent supporters of anthropogenic climate change (formerly "global warming") fail so miserably to practice what they preach? Al Gore globe trots the world over. Barack Obama flies Air Force One to Hawaii for every Christmas vacation, with his massive entourage, and takes it to Florida for a round of golf with Tiger Woods. Then he's off to Los Angeles to appear on a late night talk show. Billions of tax dollars, and CO2 pounds for worldwide vacations, all the time.

"Researchers" flie and drive around the world, willy nilly, as if their "work" is so critical to mankind's existence. The Hollywood Glitterati preach one thing and then take limos to their private jets, for getaways on huge yachts or foreign homes. The hypocrisy is insufferable.

Haze at 16:41 PM on 17 January 2017

Press complaints process is ‘exercise in futility’ for scientists

Is this why "But, overall, majorities of Americans appear skeptical of climate scientists. No more than a third of the public gives climate scientists high marks for their understanding of climate change; even fewer say climate scientists understand the best ways to address climate change. And, while Americans trust information from climate scientists more than they trust that from other groups, fewer than half of Americans have “a lot” of trust in information from climate scientists (39%)." (http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/10/04/public-views-on-climate-change-and-climate-scientists/)

One Planet Only Forever at 13:41 PM on 17 January 2017

Fact Check: Rex Tillerson on Climate Risks

A proposed better wording for the Global Sea Ice image description:

"Global sea ice extent data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The 2016-2017 values shown in red have been significant record lows since September of 2016."

John Hartz at 13:02 PM on 17 January 2017

It's the sun

Recommended supplemental reading:

As Earth Warms Up, The Sun Is Remarkably Quiet by Bob Henson, WunderBlog, Weather Underground, Jan 11, 2017

ldibart at 10:05 AM on 14 January 2017

It's the sun

The earth has been cooling down its dropped over 1 degree since the 90s not sure why the graph above stops and does not show this cooling down since the article was posted later than the highest heating point.

Now this cooling down is still continuing even though methane gas was released roughly ten times the amount more than normal. the sun has been less active as well before the earth began to cool a bit .the earth is still .36 degrees warmer however but again this cooling was done a bit after 2000 so that decrease happened relatively fast and I am sure will cause weather changes as the earth adjusts ..

They are trying to put the blame on man for the methane .however since 2007 Methane levels went on the rise and again the past 2 years released 10x (was the quote) that amount .. so unless rice paddies and cows and other man made products which is supposed to be 60 percent of the methane I dont see that had anything to do with this huge release at all as they stated having risen some monstrous amounts this can not be man made methane .

They admit that its hard to know where it came from ..but they will indeed blame man make up stats and charge people for it even though this much methane release has to come world wide and from other sources .IMO

Moderator Response:

[JH] Sloganeering snipped.

Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

Tom Dayton at 05:14 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Sean, following up on my reply to you: The climate models do a good job of reproducing the sizes and durations of internal variability of temperature--those large swings above and below the model ensemble mean that I described previously. So changes in short term trends such as those you referred to as "flattening" are expected--projected by the models.

What the climate models do poorly is project the timings of those short term changes--for example, internal variability's oscillations due to ENSO. The sizes and durations of temperature oscillations due to ENSO are projected well, but the phase alignments of those oscillations with the calendar are poorly projected.

That's due to the inherent difficulty of modeling those things, but also to the difference between climate models and weather models. Those two types of models essentially are identical, except that weather models are initialised with current conditions in attempts to project those very details of timings that climate models project poorly. Weather models do well up through at least 5 days into the future, but after about 10 days get really poor. Climate models, in contrast, are not initialized with current conditions. They are initialized with conditions far in the past, the Sun is turned on, and they are run until they stabilize. It turns out that it doesn't matter much what the initialization condition details are, because fundamental physics of energy balance ("boundary conditions") constrain the weather within boundaries that are "climate." You might think of it as the mathematical (not the normal English!) concept of "chaos," with weather being the poorly predictable variations around stable "attractors." (Type "chaos" in the Search field at the top left of this page to see relevant posts.)

Evidence that the models well-project durations and sizes of temperature swings can be seen if you pick out from those model run spaghetti lines, the runs whose timings/phasings of some major internal variability in ocean activity just happen to match (by sheer accident) the actual calendar timings of those. Risbey et al. did that, as described well by Stephen Lewandowski along with several other approaches.

Tom Curtis at 04:21 AM on 14 January 2017

NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming

From the Comments Policy:

"No multiple identities. Posting comments at Skeptical Science should use only one registered screen name. Use of more than one account will result in all accounts being banned."

Given that, and given that Echo_Alpha_Zulu/Echo_Alpha_Delta is using at least two accounts, I will not respond to his comments until the moderators have determined to what extent he is violating the comments policy, and the appropriate course of action.

Moderator Response:

[JH] All of the comments that Echo_Alpha_Delta has posted have been deleted because he/she is a sock puppet of a person who has been banned from posting on this site. All future posts of Echo_Alpha_Delta will be summarily deleted until his/her new identity is banned.

Tom Dayton at 03:24 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Sean, your statement that "the measured temperature was falling rapidly down the confidence limits" is incorrect, because those are not "confidence limits" in the usual statistical sense. You are not at all alone in misunderstanding that; climate scientists like most all other scientists (me included!) usually speak and write in shorthand about information that they all know. The "envelope" of model runs in the graph that Rob posted for you is shading to cover the area spanned by all the CMIP5 model runs. The individual model runs can be represented by a spaghetti graph that most people find hard to read, so usually the shading is substituted for the strands of spaghetti. See Rob Painting's post's Figure 2 as a schematic to understand that, and his Figure 3 for all the actual model run spaghetti strands.

The CMIP5 project had multiple models, most produced by different teams. Each model was run at least once, but some were run multiple times with different parameter values. The set of all model runs is a "convenience" sample of the population of all possible model runs. Indeed, it is only a "convenience" sample of all possible models. "Convenience" sampling in science does not have the "casual" or "lazy" implication that the word "convenience" does in lay language. It means that the sample is not a random selection from the population, and not even a stratified random sample. In this case, it is impossible to randomly sample from those populations of all possible model runs and all possible models. Therefore the usual "confidence limits" related concepts of inferential statistics do not apply.

So what does this distribution of model runs mean? It is multiple researchers' attempts to create models and model parameterizations that span the ranges of those researchers' best estimates of a whole bunch of things. So it does represent "confidence" and "uncertainty," but in more of a subjective judgement way than what you probably were thinking. Read Rob's post for more explanation.

Notably, none of the individual model runs has the shape of the multi-model ("model ensemble") mean line. In other words, we expect the global temperature to not follow that multi-model mean line. That's a stronger statement than "we don't expect the global temperature to exactly follow the multi-model mean line." It would be disappointing if any of the individual model runs followed that mean line, because it is quite clear that the global temperature varies a lot more than that. That's because the global temperature in the short term is weather by definition, and only in the long term is climate. So what we expect is for global temperature to vary a lot day to day, month to month, year to year, and even decade to decade, in response to variations in internal variations such as ENSO; and to variations in forcings such as volcanoes, insolation, greenhouse gas emissions, and reflective aerosol emissions.

We do expect that the resulting wavy actual global temperature line will follow the general pattern of all those model runs. That includes expecting the actual temperature line to stay within the range of all those model runs (the bounds of the ensemble). We expect it will not hug the ensemble mean; we expect it will swing up and down across that mean line, sometimes all the way to the edge of the range (not just to the edge of 95% of the range). We expect 10 year actual trends to deviate substantially from that mean line. We expect 20 year actual trends to deviate significantly from that mean line. We expect 30 year trends to deviate somewhat from that mean line. We expect 50 year trends to deviate slightly from that mean line. Beyond 50 years into the future the uncertainty starts increasing again.

Read Rob's post, then with that knowledge as context, re-read Tom Curtis's replies to you.

Tom Curtis at 03:05 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Sean OConnor @9, what your really saying is that you want a gotcha moment, not actual understanding.

For the record, the running 10 year means in the CMIP5 RCP8.5 from 2011.5 (ie, the period from 2007-2016) to 2020.5 (ie, 2016-2025) is 0.284 +/- 0.278 C/decade. The mean value is meaningless without the uncertainty. It would only be a meaningful value if, contrary to fact, we lived in a world without short term, unpredictable influences on temperature such as ENSO. With that uncertainty, any observed trend during that interval from 0.006 - 0.562 C/decade lies within the predicted model range.

More importantly, the model projection for 2011-2015 was a 10 year trend of 0.255 +/- 0.323 C/decade, with an observed trend of 0.148 C/decade - well within the uncertainty level. Indeed, according to the models, there is a 19-25% chance of a trend that low, or lower. If you conclude from those statistics that the models have been falsified, you are like a person who, seeing a 1 rolled on a six sided dice, conclude that probability theory is bunk because it predicted only a 1 in six (16.67%) chance of such an event occuring in a single roll.

That leaves aside such details as that the models are projections, ie, predictions on the assumption that a particular forcing history has occurred. That is particularly significant because it is known the observed forcing history showed a lower growth than the RCP8.5 forcing scenario; which would lead us to expect the observed trend to be less than the projected trend.

Sean OConnor at 03:01 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

OK, I'll make it easy. If the level of CO2 continues to grow for the next couple of decades as it did for the last couple of decades what will be the projected expected rate of global temperature rise over that time? (and we continue to get similar numbers of volcanos, El Ninos, La Ninas etc...)

RedBaron at 02:36 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

@9 Sean OConnor,

Models don't predict, they project. There is a difference. in other words:

If ABC.... then D +/- an uncertainty factor

ABC... has some factors that are known and some factors that can't be known until they happen. So because all the factors ABC... can't be known ahead of time, they can only be projected as to what range of values they might have in the future, depending on our actions and many events that can't be known ahead of time.

For example, exactly how many new solar panels will be bought next year? Wind generators? Do you know? When will be the next el nino? la nina? The next major volcanic eruption? How large? The average fuel efficiency of next years car and truck models? How many will be sold? How much will they be driven? We can project possible numbers for all of these within ranges, but no one can predict ahead of time those exact figures and hundreds more until they actually happen!

As of yet NO ONE can accurately predict the future. What climate scientists can do with their models is project possible outcomes depending upon how a multitude of future events unfold. Then those projections are tested against the empirical evidence after it happens and is measured, and it gives scientists new knowledge about how our climate system works.

The reason you keep needing to ask over and over and are frustrated at not getting a satisfactory answer, is because you are asking the wrong question.

Maybe this will help:

Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change

Sean OConnor at 01:23 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

OK, I'll ask for a third time: What do the models predict that the rate of global warming will be over the next few decades?

The article states that we've been seeing something like 0.16C to 0.18C per decade as measured by scientific instruments.

My understanding was that the prediction was 0.3C per decade. So I am surprised to see an article on Skeptical Science giving a figure of about half what was predicted.

Tom Curtis at 00:33 AM on 14 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Sean OConnor @7, I compared the RCP8.5 model runs for CMIP5 to the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Land Ocean Temperature Index (BEST LOTI) from 1861 to 2015 (that being currently the most recently available annual data point for BEST LOTI). Taking runing 10 year means over that interval, the BEST LOTI has a mean difference from the CMIP5 RCP 8.5 ensemble mean of 0.01 Standard Deviations (ie, a normalized error of 0.01), with a standard deviation of the normalized error of 1.11. That is, over that period the historical record shows more variability than the ensemble mean, but the running 10 year trends show no significant bias. Indeed, the trend of the normalized error is -0.004 +/-0.004, so that over time, the mean normalized error has decreased - a trend which is almost but not quite significant.

The greater variability of the historical record is expected. That is because the mean of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 ensemble is the average of 39 different runs, each of which varies in different locations. That is due to different timings of simulated ENSO events, along with other quasiperiodic cycles represented in the model. Consequently the ensemble mean is far smoother than any individual run.

Now you might correctly point out that the majority of that run represents a hindcast. We are more interested in the accuracy of forecasts. However, the proper test of the accuracy of the forecast is that it is not statistically distinguishable from the accuracy of the hindcast. If we apply an absolute test of the accuracy in the forecast, we treat the actual record as though it were an ensemble mean; rather than the logical equivalent to just another ensemble member. We know from the hindcast that the timing of ensemble member ENSO events (and the like) are not coordinated and that those drive the substantial variability from year to year from the ensemble mean. We also know that the historical record exhibits the same behaviour. Therefore we expect in future the variability from ENSO events to result in considerable variability in the short term trend from the ensemble mean, but that overtime that variability will average out.

As it happens, the normalized error in the 10 year trend terminating from 2006 - 2015 is -0.67. That is, it is running two thirds of a standard deviation of the typical error below the ensemble mean. Therefore it does not even hint at a problem in accurate prediction.

Note that the 2006-2015 interval has high values at either end and low values in the middle and so would be expected to have a flat trend. That, from our knowledge of the ENSO record, and that the ensemble mean averages out the effects of ENSO, we would expect a lower than average 10 year trend to 2015.

Sean OConnor at 21:58 PM on 13 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Thanks Rob P for posting that graph but virtually all that it shows is that models are good at predicting the past and that isn't something I'm terribly interested in. But when the model was actually predicting the future, from say 2000 onwards, your graph clearly shows that actual recorded temperatures were quite flat whereas the prediction was for them to increase (which is ironic as this article is all about there not being a pause when your own graph clearly shows that there was!) and the measured temperature was falling rapidly down the confidence limits. Granted, the recent El Nino has upped the measured temperatures, but my understanding is that this will only be temporary as it was in 1998.

So rather than show a graph of hindcast predictions could you please let me know what the predicted global temperature rise is according to our latest models for the next few decades? Don't show a graph, just write down the number in degrees C per decade that we are expecting for the next 20 or 30 years. My understanding was that it was 0.3C/decade but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Moderator Response:

[Rob P] ".....your graph clearly shows that actual recorded temperatures....."

The ol' eyecrometer is not a statistical tool. Note what appeared in the post above - from Foster & Abraham [2015]:

"A barrage of statistical tests was applied to global surface temperature time series to search for evidence of any significant departure from a linear increase at a constant rate since 1970. In every case, the analysis not only failed to establish a trend change with statistical significance, it failed by a wide margin."

"My understanding was that it was 0.3C/decade....."

In the IPCC's Second Assessment Report, the projected global annual mean rate of warming for the early 21st century (slightly larger than scenario IS92a), including greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols, was 0.2°C per decade.

bozzza at 15:49 PM on 13 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

BBHY, would you therefore agree that the pattern markets need to see before a consolidatory approach toward self imposed carbon intensity efficiency would be: <b>a temperature trend of la ninas above that of el ninos?</b>

bozzza at 15:44 PM on 13 January 2017

Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 8

..well, maybe not exactly: nah, good maps actually- I hereby stand corrected!

bozzza at 15:41 PM on 13 January 2017

Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 8

The Middle East is the exact antithesis, however. Interesting maps.....

bozzza at 15:13 PM on 13 January 2017

Press complaints process is ‘exercise in futility’ for scientists

White-trash-democracy got bombed in 2001: why haven't we collectively realised that parents have a responsibility to their kids yet?

Because we are all trying too hard to be like our once-hippyish parents whom we all remember cutting off their hair... and then they changed! Now we have become them without the free-love bit and the world is full of McMansions and lonely neighbours.

What happens next is up to us as people: governments follow, the people lead!

chriskoz at 12:44 PM on 13 January 2017

Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 8

william@2,

Your "prophecy" does not make any sense in light of e.g. (Samson 2011):

(click to see larger version)

Same aplies on the smaller scale: "rich and famous" are going to sit in their A/C towers, or move to their other properties, while poors and vulnerables are going to suffer. Example: recent cases of suicide in flooded Thailand. Rich people do not react like that.

Tom Curtis at 11:47 AM on 13 January 2017

Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools

As I have said previously, I am not going to endlessly reprosecute this point. I will note, however, that while adamski will not accept significant evidence of Russian involvement in the DNC hack, he reverses the onus of proof when it comes to condemning Assistant Secretary of State Nuland, who is charged with fomenting a coup simply because the US has given aid to the Ukraine. Next he will be telling us that the US pulls Putin's puppet strings because of the >10 Billion in aid given to Russia over the same period.

I will also point out that my accurate description of Putin as a hardline, nationalist, dictator is not in any way weakened by the extensive support of such dictators by the US in the past, given that I am not a US citizen, and have never condoned that support. Indeed, I have condemned it.

bjchip at 08:20 AM on 13 January 2017

Press complaints process is ‘exercise in futility’ for scientists

The great misfortune for our children is that democracy fails us when people are ignorant, and that they prefer not to pay for "news" that is "inconvenient" to their beliefs or that simply fails to entertain them. Which means that media outlets have a stron interest in entertainment and controversy, and very little in the boring part about accuracy.

Since we enlightened our social structures so that news is now a commercially sold product (infotainment), the result is a spreading and undeniable increase in ignorance. The ignoranti outnumber us, and democracy IS failing, and the result is that we are failing our children, in not providing them with an environment that supports the civilization and privileges we ourselves enjoy today. This is simply a symptom. It is actually remarkable that there is still some theoretical mechanism to correct it. I do not think that in the USA the ability to challenge a media pusher on its products even exists (outside of libel court).

william5331 at 05:47 AM on 13 January 2017

Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 8

Just a wee niggle. Climate change is likely to have a pretty devestating effect on the rich and famous. Think about all that high priced realestate that will be trashed by sea level rise. Think about cities which typically have three days of food within their boarders when there is a massive Northern Hemisphere crop failure. Think about the wall street types that were jumping out of their multi story buildings during the 30's crash. They joy may just possibly be spread around a little more equally than we think.

Sean OConnor at 01:27 AM on 13 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

You state that we've had warming of between 0.16C and 0.18C per decade. How does that compare to model predictions?

Moderator Response:

[Rob P] Here's an update to a figure which appeared in the IPCC AR5.

John Hartz at 01:18 AM on 13 January 2017

Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools

In my opinion, Kurt Eichenwald is one of the best investigative journalists in the US. I therefore place great weight on the accuracy of his reports about the Russian/Putin interference in the 2016 Presidential election. Here is an introduction and link to his most recent Newsweek piece on this topic.

Prior to the November presidential vote, Newsweek published an article revealing the scope, intent, mechanisms and global impact of Russia’s interference with the American election, based largely on information from European intelligence services. Given the recent release of declassified government documents confirming large portions of the original article, we are combining new reporting with extensive information from the first Newsweek piece that has yet to be declassified and has been described by individuals from and connected to several foreign intelligence services who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Trump, Putin and the Hidden History of How Russia Interfered in the U.S. Presidential Election by Kurt Eichenwald, Newsweek, Jan 11, 2016

Tristan at 15:56 PM on 12 January 2017

Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’

@RedBaron

Very interesting, thanks for your detailed response.

Ignorant Guy at 15:24 PM on 12 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Like chriskoz, I didn't like the headline. But you can't always not get what you don't want.

But let's get serious. I really agree with chriskoz that this web-site needs to be easy to read. I come here frequently to keep myself informed and find the site higly valuable.
I am not a native English speaker and I am so-so fluent, but I have a way with words and I have I way with logic. Still I needed to read the 3-negtion headline several times to get the meaning right.

adamski5807 at 14:02 PM on 12 January 2017

Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools

Tom@32 How is it that other actors are eliminated without giving us factual substance of thier claims? You are prepared to question assange's claims yet give no qualifications to what is being claimed by the agencies ( remember Iraq?) You provide a link that half way down states there Assange asked the US to review and redact names but refused and that there is no evidence that anyones life has been threatened as a result. You also omit that it was a 'real journalist' - David Leigh of the Guardian, who made it necessary for the cables to be dumped en masse after he published the decryption codes in a book.

www.newscientist.com/article/dn20869-assange-why-wikileaks-was-right-to-release-raw-cables/

Is it possible for you to provide examples of countries where the US has suppported democracy as I can give plenty where the opposite is true (read Chomsky)

Leak or hack, what does it really matter as we know all govts are involved in such affairs, but in this case what is seen as the "crime" is its release to the american public.

Demonising Putin with descriptors such as hardliner, nationalist, dictator are meaningless when there are plenty of leaders around the globe who enjoy full US suuport and protection. Putin is an oligacarch thanks to US capitalism after the collapse of USSR and the privatisation of state assets.

And finally, where are you getting you information of Ukraine and Syria? Are you saying Nuland had nothing to do with the illegal overthrow of Yanukovitch despite her admission of spending $5bn to secure "a democratic Ukraine"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2fYcHLouXY

sailingfree at 08:16 AM on 12 January 2017

Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 8

The Bible says even more.

God made the Garden of Eden for Adam and Eve, but got mad at them and kicked them out to a less hospitibale place: “… cursed is the ground for thy sake; in sorrow shall thy eat out of it … in the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread,…” (Genesis 3.17,19)

And after a few generations He was so mad at mankind that He flooded the Earth. “And God saw the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually.” (Genesis 6.5) “… and so the Lord said  I will destroy man whom I have created from the face of the earth; …” (Genesis 6.7)

He later changed his mind for Noah and his family, and promised no more global floods. He made no such promise about heat though.

Could He be mad again, seeing how "well" we have taken care of the Earth and have treated other humans?

chriskoz at 18:15 PM on 11 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Thanks Dana for another good article, but its title, with 3 negations "can't stop", "denying" and "no global warming 'pause'" is virtually impossible to grasp even for me, a fluent English reader. I grasped it only by inference, because I know Dana and what he thinks on the subject, and of course from the text.

However, those less fluent (e.g. what google translate would do with it if some need to read in another language?) or who don't read the text carefully, will just remain confused.

Simplicity and clarity of arguments & language is what separate this website from denialist crowd and let's not forget about titles...

"Conservative media keep denying that the global warming 'pause' was debunked" would be far better. Or a different take: "Science denying conservative media keep believing in a myth of the global warming 'pause'"

BBHY at 18:06 PM on 11 January 2017

Conservative media can't stop denying there was no global warming 'pause'

Not only are El Nino years hotter than previous El Nino years and La Nina years hotter than previous La Nina years, but we also have La Nina years that are hotter than earlier El Nino years. If that isn't evidence of warming what is?

I like to remind people that 2008, which was the coolest year since 2000, was still warmer than all but one year of the 1900's. So a year that is actually in 99th percentile of warmest years is now what counts as a 'cool" year in the 21st Century.

My conservative friends still claim that the Earth is in a cooling period, but we know that has now become part of their political identity and has nothing at all to do with the scientific facts.

RedBaron at 07:21 AM on 11 January 2017

Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’

Tristan,

Easier said than done. The best published science so far regarding management changes on existing grassland is here:

Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie

But one study in Texas, no matter how well done, doesn't help much to determine what will happen in Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, South America, Asia, Australia etc etc... Its being done in all those places. Soil carbon is rapidly rising. Vegetative cover is increasing, etc etc etc. But as far as I know, there isn't yet enough published literature to quantify it.

That's the first problem. The second problem is so far, counter to what everyone is claiming, no land managed this way has ever been found yet to saturate so far. Other types of grassland management has, but not HPG, not yet. Gabe Brown has one paddock up to 11%, and it is actually accelerating carbon sequestration rather than slowing down. There is a guy in Missouri named Greg Judy who has been doing this long enough he theorectically should have reached saturation, but instead, his land the A horizon carbon sequestration simply tapered off at the upper levels, but accelerated deeper in the soil profile. He is now building high carbon soil meters deep. No saturation in sight...yet. But he hasn't had his land volunteered as part of a carbon sequestration scientific study with controlls either. Only relying on his own reporting of soil tests sent to labs. So these lines of evidence are not robust at all, nor quantified properly.

In some cases where some of these properties have been robustly measured, they often are simply thrown out as outliers. That doesn't help us much either.

But the biggest obstical of all is getting any good data at all on land currently in corn and soy production. What would be the effect of changing that land back to properly managed pasture? People have done it, but I have seen no data that could be used to quantify the effects besides the case studies done on several farms including Gabe Brown and his neighbors. A webinar describing those results can be found here and even this focused on cover crops used as forage rather than the pasture land:

Innovative No-Till: Using Multi-Species Cover Crops to Improve Soil Health

And here is Gabe describing it himself:

Gabe Brown: Keys To Building a Healthy Soil

This would necessarily be part of any plan though. Because while we currently over produce corn and soy, we wouldn't want to stop completely either. So this needs to happen too. Wouldn't want to grow it for biofuels though. Switchgrass not only produces about 5 times the biomass above ground for biofuel production, it also rapidly sequesters carbon in the soil at the same time. (10.6tCO2/ha/yr in the 0-120 cm soil profile)

Soil Carbon Storage by Switchgrass Grown for Bioenergy

Basically what we are left with then is calculating potential theoretically rather than actually robustly estimating it from observable published results. We have a few studies here and there, and they are suprisingly consistant, but not enough to be sure worldwide. Agriculture can double soil carbon levels in the topsoil within three to five years, particularly when the starting point is below 2%. Soil carbon increases of 0.5-1% could therefore be achieved relatively easily with these simple changes to land management anywhere those soil carbon levels have dropped below 2%. So the next question is how much carbon is that? To calculate that we use this formula:

Total weight of the soil (100 t/ha/cm) x % SOC = 1tC/ha/cm for every 1% increase of SOC. The standard soil measurement depth is 30cm. So 30tC/ha for every 1% increase in SOC. (SOC actually increases meters deep and in the case above with switchgrass even more at depth than shallow, but data for depths over 30cm is quite rare because most the data was collected in conjunction with arable cropping)

The only thing to do next is simply project how many acres of land we do this on.

Desertification is experienced on 33% of the global land surface and affects more than one billion people, half of whom live in Africa. [1]

Applying the numbers above to 33% of the land surface gives one ridiculously high potential. Even I can't be that optimistic. Agricultural land producing food totals 49,116,227 square kilometers (just under 5 gigahectares) So if we could do this on just 33% of current agricultural land that would give us a usable sink of around 1.5 gigahectares. That gives 45 Gt C for every 1% increase in SOC just in the top 30cm of the 1/3rd the world's agricultural soils. You won't reach saturation for at minimum 225 Gt C. Every 27 tC sequestered biologically in soil represents 100 tCO2e removed from the atmosphere. That gives us 833 Gt CO2e sink size for only 1/3rd the agricultural land increasing in SOC 5% only in the top 30cm. More than all the excess CO2 currently in the atmosphere and approaching significant numbers for total emissions ever. The last figure I found for global industrial emissions since 1751 was ~ 1,450 Gt CO2e (maybe some of you climate scientists could confirm that)

Yet as big as that number is, 1/3rd the agricultural land being capable of sequestering well over 1/2 of the total industrial emissions ever just by increasing SOC 5%. It is still finite. So we still must rely on the other scientists and engineers to get a handle on emissions.

I still contend if we do both, it will solve AGW and may be the ONLY way we can. Certainly the only way I know of that can be afforded and instead of risks, benefits.

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