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Erwin at 01:23 AM on 25 November 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
The Hanson 1988 paper link is dead. I think it is:
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_ha02700w.pdf
Hope this is right!
Moderator Response:[PS] Link activated. Thanks for that.
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DSL at 00:49 AM on 25 November 2016The simple, cheap instruments measuring global warming in the oceans
It's thanksgiving in the US. I think I can give thanks that plato525 didn't stick around to spew a bunch of anti-science garbage and put me off my mashed potatoes.
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Tom Curtis at 00:20 AM on 25 November 2016The simple, cheap instruments measuring global warming in the oceans
I see that plato525 reveals himself to be, in addition to free from rational thought, an opponent of free speech.
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plato525 at 23:52 PM on 24 November 2016The simple, cheap instruments measuring global warming in the oceans
How do I delete myself from this site or can you do it for me?
Please. I can't take anymore.
Moderator Response:[DB] Request granted.
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sauerj at 12:09 PM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
Wol @4 & nigel @6: When I said P&C costs, I meant these sorts of insurance costs to the entire economy. But, your points are valid, in that private business will not bear the direct brunt of the non-industrial portion of these costs; they will in an indirect way, but not a direct way. So, the totality of these costs won't ever show up directly on business (private only) balance sheets.
Another fallacy w/ my thinking is that it is ridiculous to think that an individual business could model true, long-term operating costs for an array of project options based on how each option might impact their future climate change (or operating) costs. Obviously, a single business is way too small for different project options to make a difference to their operating costs due to CC impacts. Total lapse of thinking on my part.
I therefore fall back on the need of carbon taxes to force these operating costs onto private & public endeavors. The tax has to 1) have enough bite to it (high enough operating cost) to make sustainable projects more profitable than non-sustainable options when conducting fully distributed cost evaluations (for either new projects, deciding when to abandon old plants, and for R/D investments), 2) ramped up at a brisk but economically tolerable rate & the ramp rate should be held firm to stablilize business planning, and 3) Be re-distributed in equitable and optimum ways for both economic stability and carbon cessation. Subsidies and regs could be used, if needed, for back-up support; i.e. a multi-prong set of forces.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 11:29 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
Just an update to the article. Hazelwood wont maybe close in 2017, it will close. It is being shutdown at the end of March.
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scaddenp at 11:13 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
" From past experience in Australia, the carbon tax revenue mostly went into building bigger government and subsidizing low income families",
Ohh, the right-wing deadly sins! And compensating polluters for higher prices, did you mention that?? Terrible thing to try and help people affected by higher energy prices isnt it?
How exactly was government made bigger by the spend in carbox tax?
I prefer pigovian tax myself but seems to me that government was trying to achieve much the same outcome.
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Art Vandelay at 10:22 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
A tax on carbon is great, as long as the revenue generated is used to subsidize or develop clean energy. From past experience in Australia, the carbon tax revenue mostly went into building bigger government and subsidizing low income families, as well as tv and media advertising to tell the population how great the carbon tax was.
In a country like Australia with a relatively small population that generates about 1% of global emissions, mitigation measures make us all feel good but can't ever make a measureable impact on the climate at any level.
For that reason, I think it's best to transition sensibly to low carbon generation with a broad environmental focus and with the expectation that emerging technologies will make many of today's green energy solutions obsolete within 20 years.
To that end, a country like Australia might be best served investing in clean energy R&D and putting carbon tax dollars into clean energy projects in developing nations where they'll achieve maximum carbon abatement.
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nigelj at 09:56 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
More variable weather, and more storms etc will impact on companies, but whether they insure against this is their business just like fire insurance. They will do it when the risks start to hurt their bottom line.
Given climate change is longer term, compared to the risk of fire for example, this could take some time. However smart companies should be thinking about it, especially where they build factories in relation to sea level for example.
Externalities are different. Companies damaging the environment do indeed cost the public, and so this becomes everyones problem. Companies historically have a poor record of any initiative in resolution of the problem. The only thing that has changed behaviour is government legislation, from bodies like the EPA in the United States. Right now they are the only body doing much, although they often seem to stop short of forcing companies to pay costs. And it appears Trump is determined to undo the EPA if possible.
But who would know. Trump has talked in so many contradictions I give up making sense of it.
However a carbon tax is one method of forcing companies to pay the cost of their polluting relating to climate change. This is certainly economically sound.
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Wol at 08:20 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
william @2: I'm increasingly of the opinion that economic arguments are a bit of a red herring in the context of global warming.
If a denier will not accept the fact of the earth's energy budget then no arguments over the economics of fossil fuel and renewables is going to make headway.
On a statistical basis, insuring your house and contents makes no sense for an individual since he is far more likely to spend tens of thousands over the years on premiums than he is to get back in claims. It's the risk factor that is ignored in that argument, and the same one that's ignored in the warming "debate".
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Wol at 08:12 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
sauerj @1: I would take issue with you on P & C premiums and taxes as being externalities. They are part of an industry's budget and fully accounted for.
The real externalities, the "phantom" ones and actually far more significant in the present context, are those costs which are borne by individuals, consumers and the public sector in mitigation of the consequences of the industry - industrial blight, waste, emissions and so on. Those are the costs which the budgets ignore but which are increasingly apparent.
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scaddenp at 06:17 AM on 24 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
Always an extremely complicated question. What doesnt go down in developing nations, is being told that you cant develop by using the same cheap fossil fuel resources as rich nations used to become what they are. Since rich nations are responsible for virtually all of the problems and the poor nations taking most of the consequences, then that is certainly a sticking point. There a need for rich to help poor develop sustainably - the trick is how to do that without just lining the pockets of corrupt officials.
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RedBaron at 06:07 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
Good article. However when you said, "This list is by no means complete" I wonder why you left off the largest of all, BCCS?
Dr. Christine Jones has one answer.
Of the estimated 3060 gigatonnes of
carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, 82 per
cent is in soils.2 That’s over four times the
amount of carbon stored in the world’s
vegetation. Dr Jones asks, ‘If only 18 per
cent is stored in vegetation, why all the
emphasis on biomass, rather than soil, as a
carbon sink?
‘The answer is that people – including
most of our top scientists – simply don’t
understand soil carbon sequestration or
the role of the microbial bridge and have
therefore overlooked it.Some more information:
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william5331 at 05:03 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
The one break through that we need to make all forms of renewable energy completely practical is energy storage. When we crack that one, the last argument against renewables will crumble and then we will only have vested interests to fight against. They will be defeated by simple economics. Their energy will be more expensive than renewable energy.
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sauerj at 02:17 AM on 24 November 2016Mitigation in Australia
What is missing from today's business economic planning (private or public) is the correct operating cost. Because businesses use an incorrect operating cost (that does not include future CC external costs), when they evaluate project options based on fully distributed cost accounting, they are therefore not picking the most profitable option. If they would use the correct operating cost, then the mitigation efforts listed here would be the most profitable and the economic motivation would be 'naturally' in place to push their implementation.
Businesses mistakenly think that these future external costs are some sort of phantom cost or else costs that they will be able to escape (forever) & let that some other entity shoulder them. What they don't realize is that, no, these costs are not an academic exercise, some phantom number on paper that they, in the real world, won't ever come to ever bear. Wrong! These costs will become real costs, that will show up as real debits, increasingly so, on their balance sheets.
These costs will show up as 1) increased P&C insurance premiums (Property & Casualty damage), and 2) taxes (as military costs rise in order to maintain geo-political stability). For the first one, P&C premium costs are essentially 1:1 equal to the climate impact costs (floods, droughts, storms). To be clear on this statement, the CC impact costs that economists forecast, will show up to the global businesses (1:1) equal to all the P&C insurance costs that are incrementally more than a baseline, after scaling-up for %GDP rise.
One way to make these true operatings costs as immediately transparent & direct as possible (sooner than later) is to implement a carbon tax (inserted at the source). A revenue-neutral carbon tax, where the revenue is equitably re-distributed, is the least burdensome approach economically (link).
All of these mitigation efforts (listed in this article) would fall into place (economically) if businesses (private & public) used the correct operating costs (either voluntarily, unlikely to happen, or involuntarily, carbon tax). Then businesses (& consumers) would do the right (sustainble) thing, because the right thing would be the most profitable thing. The sooner we re-calibrate our thinking to think how business thinks (private & public), i.e. in terms of most profit (& based on correct operating cost, all of it), then the easier it is to talk with them on a common platform and get the business world to see & accept the right, ethical mitigation efforts.
There are solutions that we haven't even dreamt of. If positive-sustainable economics were in place, then investors would be coming out of the wall for R&D to uncover, more & more, better & better solutions; again, all because these R&D efforts would be highly profitable. Again, this is the "talk" , the "language" that moves business (profit), but make sure they understand that they need to use the correct operating cost. They will get it. They will intellectually understand & relate to this, and will also understand that the real costs (not phantom ones) will come to bear sooner or later, and that it is prudently profitable sooner than later to "make the books right".
Therefore, the top thing on the list should be a carbon tax, and then all of this (& more) will start to domino into place. Other approaches may help (subsidies, regulations, etc) & can be included if needed for backup support, but the carbon tax is the most effective means to move us off of status quo & toward the best sustainble solution efforts.
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MA Rodger at 19:23 PM on 23 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #47
Tom Curtis @3,
You may not recall plato525's previous visit to SkS a three months back in which the "video experiment with the black color solution that was added to water in a glass container to show the amount of CO2" was sought. It appears plato525 found the demonstration unconvincing.
And as plato525 is not what you'd call chatty, establishing why he remains unconvinced, or indeed the reasons for his apparent doubt on there being rising global temperatures @1 or his branding AGW as "hoax" @2; all this may remain unresolved.
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Tom Curtis at 16:40 PM on 23 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #47
plato525 @1 and @2 shows all the commitment to clear reasoning we have come to expect from AGW deniers /sarc.
With regard to his post @2, taking a different angle - Iron represents 670 ppmv of the human body. By plato525's implicity reasoning, changes in its proportion in the human body can make no difference. Much of that iron, however, is found in various globulins, of which the best known is haemoglobin. Without iron, there is no haemoglobin, and hence no transport of oxygen from the lungs to the muscles. Without iron in the body, that is, we would suffocate in seconds.
Of course, with too much iron (50 ppm by mass) in your dietary intake will result in severe iron poisoning. If sustained, it will you will suffer acute pain as you vomit blood more or less continuously untill you eventually die of kidney failure.
This is just one more example among thousands in which plato525's "reasoning" simply fails. In fact, the counterexamples to his claim are so numerous, and so well known that his claim is not entitled to the claim of reasoning. It is, most likely, empty rhetoric; and quite possibly a belief siezed on desperately to avoid thinking clearing on the topic.
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plato525 at 15:11 PM on 23 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #47
Every 2500 molecules in the air has only one CO2 molecule.
And you think it will make a change. Hoax.
Moderator Response:[JH] Sloganeering snipped.
[PS] This discussion belongs on "CO2 is just a trace gas" myth. I wonder if Plato would enter a room with only 1 in 2500 molecules being HCN?
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plato525 at 14:56 PM on 23 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #47
If there is global warming then CO2 is not the cause.
Go and look elsewhere.
Moderator Response:[JH] This comment is pure, unadulterated sloganeering which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
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Haze at 14:45 PM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
This report from Reuters"My only worry is the money," said Tosi Mpanu Mpanu of Democratic Republic of Congo, who heads a group of the 48 least developed nations. "It’s worrying when you know that Trump is a climate change skeptic," (in.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-nations-idINKBN1370BD). At first glance this doesn't come across at all well. Is the cooperation of developing nations entirely dependent upon cash from the developed nations? Will climate change sceptics seize on this and use it to claim it is money not reduction of carbon dioxide emissions that is the force driving action against change?
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jdeutsch at 13:13 PM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
Factoring in increasingy apparent feedbacks (not all included in IPCC models), the carbon budget may have already been spent. Taxing carbon and giving rebates does not give people the choices they need, e.g., efficient and fast public transit and long-distance rail. Cap and trade, as noted above, does not cap in the real world, which is immediately necessary.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:09 AM on 23 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
nigelj@49, I do not grant excuses or benefit of the doubt to any wealthy or powerful person. None of them have an excuse to not be reasonably well informed. Saying that Trump is unaware of climate science is like saying he is unaware of the unacceptable attitudes Steve Bannon deliberately appeals to. I believe Trump is very aware of the fundamental unacceptability of his desires and claim-making. He is even on record recently denying that he was aware that his campaign marketing appealed to a past grand wizard of the KKK, a person he is on record knowing years ago, a person he denied knowing during the campaign when specifically asked. He seems to like to lie like Reagan, by claiming to not be aware of or recall stuff.
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nigelj at 10:00 AM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
So Trump says: "September 13: There is still much that needs to be investigated in the field of “climate change.”
Interesting that there are strong rumours on the internet that the Trump Administration wants to cut NASAs climate funding.
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Stranger8170 at 08:36 AM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
Maybe there's a ray of hope? Mother Jones put this together.
2012: The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.
2014:Give me clean, beautiful and healthy air - not the same old climate change (global warming) bullshit! I am tired of hearing this nonsense.
2015: Obama's talking about all of this with the global warming and ... a lot of it's a hoax. It's a hoax. I mean, it's a money-making industry, okay? It's a hoax, a lot of it.
January 18, 2016: I often joke that this is done for the benefit of China. Obviously, I joke. But this is done for the benefit of China, because China does not do anything to help climate change.
August 11: I would say it goes up, it goes down, and I think it’s very much like this over the years. We’ll see what happens. I mean, we’ll see what happens. ... Certainly, climate has changed.
September 13: There is still much that needs to be investigated in the field of “climate change.”
September 26: I do not say that [climate change is a hoax].
Today: "I think there is some connectivity" between humans and climate change, Trump says.
My head is exploding!!!!!!!!!!!
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Leto at 07:31 AM on 23 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
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Leto at 07:31 AM on 23 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
scaddenp@46
A boycott of Red States does sound fairer, and is attractive in theory. I am not sure how possible it is in practice, given that most corporations are distributed. Perhaps a general boycott would be apprpropriate, with exemptions for Blue State companies that are clearly small and localised, such as cottage industries, and so on.
I too have undergone a major change in sentiment towards America, though not to individual Americans. My brother lives in America and I have American nieces and nephew, and many Americans are truly inspiring... But my image of a typical American had undergone a shift. Only about 25% of Americans actively voted to keep Trump out of office, and he was clearly unsuitable for office on a number of fronts, including climate change. I am appalled at the country's collective stupidity.
If I am feeling this way, others must be as well. Some prominent Australians are voicing the need to rethink our relationship with America, and Europe is discussing the same issue.I just hope the rest of the world can step up on the climate change issue in a way that makes it in America's interest to follow. (Of course, my own country Australia has nothing to be proud of in this regard, either, having put Tony Abbott in place as PM - but we did have bipartisan support for carbon-trading until just before Abbott took over, and I live in hope.)
The election has left me disappointed with humanity, to be honest, and I know others feel the same. I think this election will consitute a line in history for the American nation and its place in the world.
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nigelj at 07:28 AM on 23 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
One Planet only @48, I agree with most of that, especially on what motivates some people and how they put personal desires above the long term good of humanity. Most people I know strike a balance, but some people are very short term thinking. Maybe the recent discussion in the media relating to "narcissists" has some bearing on the issue.
However it creates a difficult problem to solve, other than somehow shaming these people or trying to show them that longer term and wider thinking is often in their own interests, or the interests of their children.
However I honestly think Donald Trump probably does think climate change is a conspiracy. Remember some perfectly well educated people genuinely believe in creationism as well.
Ebell probably knows better, but the point is its hard to say and people are all different. However leaked documents certainly show oil industry interests knew of the climate issue for decades, while publicly denying it. Such is the power of the profit motive etc.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:02 AM on 23 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
nigelj@43, My current best understanding of what is going on is not as generic as being critical of wealthy people. My criticism is of everyone who chooses to put a higher priority on pursuing personal desires than they do on participating in helping to advance humanity to a lasting better future for all. I understand the appeal of climate science denial to such people, not just rich ones. The obvious required changes of ways of living mean that many developed perceptions of prosperity and perceptions of opportunity for increased personal perceptions of prosperity are undeniably unjustified.
That callous selfishness is not restricted to wealthy people. And not all wealthy people choose to think and behave that selfishly. However, the ones who get away with the least acceptable behavior can temporarily have a competitive advantage (for as long as they are able to get away with what could be understood is unacceptable).
So my criticism is of the wealthy and powerful who choose to deny climate science. They cannot claim to be uninformed (unlike less fortunate people who are more desperate and have that driving their willingness to accept a misleading appealing message). The likes of Trump, Inhofe and Ebell are almost certain to have become aware of the facts of climate science. They are simply choosing to fight against the obviously required change of the way things are going, a change that would make all the people who gambled on getting away with less acceptable pursuit of benefit become the losers they undeniably deserve to be.
And those wealthy powerful denial promoters are more despicable when they deliberately drum up support with misleading messages targeting the easily impressed among the population. And the most despicable among that group will also try to drum up even more support by deliberately appealing to social supremacists like White or Christian or English Speaking or Male supremacists.
It must be noted that the gathering up if the callous greedy and intolerant into a power block is more than a grouping up of people who have various reasons to deny climate science. Each subcategory of people in that tent will have different things they desire that they can understand are actually unacceptable. They share the understanding of the importance of defending each others understandably unacceptable desires, when acceptability is determined by the governing principle of advancing humanity to a lasting better future as part of a robust diversity of all life on this amazing planet.
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william5331 at 04:04 AM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
So the GOP thinks that climate change is so much greenwash. Fine. There are so many other compelling reasons to reduce the use of fossil fuel that will appeal to the thought processes of your typical Republican. Retreat, regroup and come at them from a different angle.
http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html
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Remco van Ek at 01:07 AM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
The clock : https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-only-five-years-left-before-one-point-five-c-budget-is-blown
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Remco van Ek at 00:16 AM on 23 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
From realclimate.org: In order to avoid exceeding a very disruptive warming of 1.5 oC with 66% probability, humanity can release approximately 220 gigatons of CO2 after January, 2017 (IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis report, Table 2.2, corrected for emissions since 2011). Global CO2 emission rates are now about 36 gigatons of CO2 per year, giving a time horizon of only about six years of business-as-usual (!) before we cross the line. To reach the catastrophic 2 oC, about 1000 gigatons of CO2 remain (about 20 years of business as usual). Note that these estimates were done before global temperatures spiked since 2014 — we are currently at 1.2 oC! So these temperature boundaries may be closer than was recently thought.
This makes me pretty depressed. I just do not see it happen in time, with or without Trump.
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scaddenp at 07:59 AM on 22 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
Unfortunately, there appears to be a hard core of Republicans/liberatarians that think that taxes should only support armed forces, justice system and police. Anything else is an imposition on liberty. Sigh.
"The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all." GK Chesterton
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nigelj at 06:50 AM on 22 November 2016Groups working with Republicans on climate are discouraged, but see a glimmer of hope
A revenue neutral carbon tax seems to me like an excellent suggestion on so many levels. It seems to resolve a number of problems within this one idea. The tax would have strong economic foundations that would reduce emissions, but would also be clear and upfront, and also politically acceptable to a range of interests. The revenue could be cordoned off and returned as a general rebate or alternatively put into renewable energy, although I appreciate this is not strictly revenue neutral. However the money could be in its own account, and not siphoned off for all sorts of general spending, and this should be attractive to many people.
The American constitution has explicit clauses that give the government the power to tax. Republicans appear to strongly support the constitution, so should find a carbon tax acceptable. I have seen the public in my country support taxes where there is a strongly compelling and clear case that is well explained.
Cap and Trade is another market idea that makes sense in theory, but appears to run into some problems when applied in the real world. This is a shame as the scheme has some compelling features, but politics is about the art of the possible.
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nigelj at 06:31 AM on 21 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
I woke up after the election of Trump with a deep dislike of America and the American people. It wasnt just the red states, it was everyone. However we have to pull back from that reaction, because its not healthy.
We can however boycott things from Trump supporting red states. We also can make our opinions and general displeasure clear. Things do eventually get through. Silence would be taken as a mandate supporting Trump.
Donald Trump also need to realise starting trade wars goes both ways. There are no winners in trade wars. They were a large factor causing the 1930s economic slump.
But obviously readers of this website are particularly concerned about climate change. We have to be very solid and firm in our views on this issue. You can't compromise on science.
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scaddenp at 06:04 AM on 21 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Leto, when I am now dealing with someone from US, I suddeny find myself asking "is this person someone who might have voted for Trump". I no longer feel comfortable even offering board to visiting post-docs/fellows. It colours my view. Suddenly a part of the US that we thought long gone is shown to be very much still there.
However, I think a boycott of only only Red state goods is appropriate.
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MA Rodger at 20:56 PM on 20 November 2016Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming
jpalombarini @69.
The analogies you present to explain yourself are as dire as your understanding of the operation of greenhouse gases.
Newton's laws act across the entire known universe so do indeed apply to "the whole picture." You are wrong to assert otherwise. The failing of Newton's laws is solely that they need amending in certain circumastances, eg by relativity when speeds or accelerations are high.
Your suggestion that Svensmark's hypothesising in some way over-rules greenhouse gas physics is most odd. The exotic nature of cosmic rays has no impact on the evaluation of the physics. And the science you place such faith in shows "that cosmic rays play a minor role in cloud formation, and have not contributed in any significant way to the global warming over the past 50 years," to quote another SkS article you would do well to read.
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Leto at 18:27 PM on 20 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
I intend to stop buying any American goods until they elect someone who will act on climate change. I will be urging others to do the same. I regret that this policy, if adopted widely, will hurt some Americans who are entirely blameless. Hopefully it will only be a 4-year boycott.
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Tom Curtis at 16:18 PM on 20 November 2016Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming
jpalombarini @69, the emperical evidence that there is a greenhouse effect is the fact that the IR emission to space from the Earth is significantly distorted from that of a black body, and more importantly, from that of the surface - as shown in this graph from a 1970 paper:
(Details here, particularly the last two sections).
Since 1970 numerous observations have shown the same effect, and provided detailed confirmation of the theory:
Caption: Figure 1. Scatterplot of 134,862 measured values of OLR against OLR calculated by the Fu-Liou model, both in units of W/m2. The solid line is the one-to-one line. (Details)
Were you claim "there are no experimental proofs" there are in fact well over 130,000 direct observations showing unequivocally that it exists. Further, that is no surprise given that its existence is a directly predicted consequence of the laws of radiation together with the laws of thermodynamics and the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Claims that "there are no experimental proofs" of the existence of the greenhouse effect fall into the same category as claims that "there is no experimental proof" that the Earth orbits (a point within the surface of) the Sun.
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AverageJon at 11:58 AM on 20 November 2016It hasn't warmed since 1998
Deniers have been cherry picking both the starting date (the 1997/8 el Nino) and the data set (the RSS satellite data).
The RSS satellite data said there was a cooling trend if you start with 1998 data. LINK
There was a warming trend if you picked 2000 as the starting date instead of 1998. LINK
As of November 2016, there is a warming trend, even if you cherry pick 1998 as your starting date. LINKModerator Response:[RH] Shortened links.
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nigelj at 07:39 AM on 20 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Tom Curtis, I do think economics is a legitimate science that is based on data and interpretation, hence you get things like the laws of supply and demand. This is all scientific logic.
However economics is also prescriptive like a technology, in that it promotes how things should be. This is where the problems start. Economics gets far more dubious and ideologically based, and sometimes makes claims that are untested and very doubtful sounding to me.
The result is economics is a complicated and messy field with various schools of thought. Its made harder because we are trying to predict economic outcomes in the future when one of the generators of these is human behaviour, and its unknowns and unpredictability. Economcs says people act rationally in their own self interest. We now know this is a dangerous simplification.
To make matters worse politicians enter the room, and then twist what economics is really saying. For example most economists do accept the need for government regualtion, particularly over environmental matters where you get failures of markets to resolve the issue. Economists say don't overdo the regulation, (but it is definitely required). Its more politicians on the right that have twisted this to promote deregulation, often aiming for very total deregulation, that happens to suit the wishes of people who lobby them.
However economists themselves also do have some strange views that defy commonsense or evidence. Their promotion of flat taxes and extreme privatisation seems debatable to me when you look at real world experience. For example my country of New Zealand does have public healthcare and it costs much less to run than Americas private system. However I dont believe in governments owning things like car companies.
I totally agree with the second part of your comments on the right wing in America going through a phase of irrationality. Al gore wrote a good book on it The Republican War on Science".
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nigelj at 07:14 AM on 20 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
One Planet @37, You appear to basically say wealthy people are in denial about climate change, as they see emissions reductions, as a threat to their further wealth creation. You say they secretly acknowledge the truth of the science.
I would totally agree they deny climate change for precisely the reasons you give, a fear it will affect their wealth creation, beyond a level of wealth any individual really needs. I would add they probably see emissions reductions and state carbon taxes as a threat to their economic ideologies as well. They are now in a highly defensive mindset from what I observe, a mindet not willing to compromise.
However I do also think many of these people, although not all, are also genuinely sceptical about the science. We have some very crafty and seductive denialist arguments, althought they are of course wrong. But unless you have the time to look carefully at both sides of the climate debate science, its easy to get sucked in by denialist claims.
So I'm just saying we have a particularly frustrating combination of things influencing peoples conclusions on the whole climate issue.
Regarding Daniels world view. This is how I see it. He is basically claiming only when sufficient people show a change in behaviour will governments move to develop legislation (like only when people start buying electric cars in sufficient numbers, would government feel empowered to impliment a carbon tax for example). I think his argument has a "grain of truth" on a gut instinct level.
However behaviour is not the only prerequisite. For example most people now verbally support gay marriage in my country and government bought in gay marriage. (possibly thinking they had sufficient mandate) Nobody had really changed their behaviour, only verbally indicated their views in polls.
Now extending that principle to the climate issue, most people In many countries have expressed a desire for measures to reduce climate change like carbon taxes. However despite this governments have often ignored their wishes. Just as governments sometimes force things on populations against the will of the majority. I think Congress in America has been captured by various interests like the oil lobby, hence their reluctance to move on climate change.
So despite people expressing a view they have been ignored. Daniels theory doesn't fully stand up to scrutiny and is only partly true.
However theres no doubt if we all individually do more to reduce emissions this would empower government to pass legislation like cap and trade or carbon taxes, but again only as a "general rule". What if the government of the day is in the lap of the fossil fuel industry? Daniels theory breaks down badly. This is exactly the problem they have in America.
As you say we can only hope government shows a better quality of leadership and stands up to certain groups. This is a moral choice they have to make.
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StBarnabas at 05:21 AM on 20 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
The Irish viewpoint. At least Borris is only forign secretary not PM. Made me smile. In these dark times
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl8a2_FWIAANO9H.jpg
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william5331 at 04:19 AM on 20 November 2016Two Scientists' Upbeat Views on Marrakech
If major countries would impose a small carbon tax on carbon coming out of the ground or across their boarders then the way is open to put a tariff (carbon tax) on the goods of any country that doesn't have such a tax themselves. If America refuses to follow suit, then her goods become uncompetative all around the world. Once a few major countries do this, America has no choice but to follow.
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PluviAL at 03:25 AM on 20 November 2016Two Scientists' Upbeat Views on Marrakech
I think the point of the article is that we are now looking beyond the pure mechanics of CO2 balance.As the US Federal government backs into this loser’s trifecta of Racialism, Fossil Fuels Double-Down, and Nuclear War flirtation, progressive states and nations must take the leading role for envisioning and creating the wonderful world that the earth deserves, with us as the managing species.
Sarkozy’s idea of a Carbon Tariff (CT) need not be politically divisive or economically disruptive. It can be implemented as an international mutual support corporation with complete transparency, for a mutually agreed charter based on indices of cost and objective benefits. Revenues can be distributed by such indices back to places where the tariff is collected according to damage profile, and environmental cost incurred, as well as indices of repair and mitigation objectives. Example: Nation A has Per capita carbon index of say 23 tons, while its current damage factor is $0.001 per capita. Nation B has carbon foot print 0.7 tons, while its current damage factor is $100 pc. Distribution to nation A is say 50% of its tariff collection rate, while nation B gets 50% of CT it collected, plus some indexed portion of the remaining funds available for mitigation, loss compensation, etc.
A shock-therapy tool for Nuclear Flirtation is for nations to demand that the IMF expand the role of SDR’s throughout the world. Alternatively a mutual support corporation, even the same one, could structure a broader SDR type mechanism, with say 4 trillion dollars, instead of the paltry 0.241 of current SDRs, or whatever amount is deemed necessary to support and promote international monetary stability. The dollar being relieved of that role would require that the US pay for its war making capacity based on real taxes, not world-wide funding as it is able to attain, when the dollar is the currency of last resort. This would be a much more stable base for national currencies.
As far as racialism; being a person of color, I feel the healthy catharsis in the mixed environment where I live. I think the US will come out the better nation, by facing down, the remainder of its racial ghosts it has now invoked. We are a really cool nation, if you lived here, and knew so many wonderful people all around, you would know it too.
Bottom line: If Mr. Box can be optimistic, having front row seating in the impending catastrophe evident in Greenland cryosphere dynamics, I can be thankful for his guidance.
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John Hartz at 02:16 AM on 20 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
A smidgen of good news?
Myron Ebell, a prominent climate change skeptic who runs the Competitive Enterprise Institute libertarian think tank, has been leading Trump's EPA transition team, but sources said he is not likely to become the administrator.
Ebell declined to comment.
Trump looks to Bush-era for new head of U.S. environmental agency by Valerie Volcovici, Reuters, Nov 15, 2016
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jpalombarini at 01:36 AM on 20 November 2016Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming
The real problem with this great hypotheses is that has no experimental proofs. It's any better than Henrik Svensmark's hypotheses for the influence of the cosmic rays in the cloud formation, in fact is worse than Svensmark's hypotheses because the CO2 domiance doesn't explain how our glacial eras existed. I like to think of this CO2 hypotheses as the Newton's theory for gravity, it works kind well when we discribe punctual phenomena but is not good if we look at the hole picture, but Svensmark's hypotheses is more like Einstein's relativity theory, because it is more dynamic and takes into account the influence of the hole Milky Way through our hole Solar System, instead of think of it as one isolated point that doesn't interact with anything. Fortunately it is science and it needs to be proved, but to claim that CO2 cause global warming without any experimental proof it's either not science or at least very irresponsable.
Moderator Response:[PS] Scientific verification is taking hypothesis/model and comparing prediction against observation. This article has many such verifications. Perhaps you should actually read the linked papers? Perhaps you could explain what you mean by the strange statement" the CO2 domiance doesn't explain how our glacial eras existed."?? This makes no sense - climate theory is entirely consistent with glacial eras. Perhaps read the articles here and here?
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ELIofVA at 01:31 AM on 20 November 2016Two Scientists' Upbeat Views on Marrakech
This article is very encouraging. It is sad to see my country (US) have such a drag on progress. However, other nations with greater resolve are moving forward. I am supportive of a carbon levy made on US products imported to other countries.
However, the key epiphany that will make effective action possible in our culture at large is the wide spread recognition that to keep co2 concentration in the atmosphere from rising, we need to limit our human caused emissions to the net amount that can be sequesters. Yes, we might be able to add some human sequestration with practices such as biochar. However, nature will reamain the primary net sequester.
This is what the COP21 treaty referred to as a net zero carbon emissions economy. Nature sequesters most of our human emissions that are safely in the carbon cycle. However, the emissions that can not be sequestered are dumped into the atmosphere adding to the previous inbalances causing the concentration to rise. This is a debt. The ultimate difficulty will be determined by how high this carbon concentration (debt) gets. When we achieve net zero, we will no longer be adding to the carbon debt. However, to reduce the carbon concentration we will need to have a net sequester economy where our emissions are less than what can be sequestered.
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Tom Curtis at 22:35 PM on 19 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Wol @39, economics is not a science. It has some potential to be pursued scientifically, but major practitioners seem disinclined to do so - preferring ideology to emperical findings. Certainly the claim that universal health care is not economically viable is falsified by the examples of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and all of Western Europe. These are examples of systems of universal health care in capitalist nations which are economically viable, and in many cases flourishing. They are also examples of nations with lower per capita health care costs combined with better healthcare outcomes than those of the US.
With regard to your further point, yes, there are creationists and faith healers and astrologers and what have you in all nations. And nor do people of any one political view have a monopoly on rationality - but the politicians of the right in the US have launched as sustained, and vitriolic campaign against rationality. In US, indeed, in Western politics, that has been an exclusive trait of the right. In the process, they have taught a large part of the electorate, particularly among their voters, to spurn rationality in all political discourse. The outcome is that they have trained an electorate ripe for a master class bullshitter, and given us Trump.
No person with right wing views, therefore, can speak on rationality without utmost hypocrissy unless they have severed all financial, organizational, and electoral connection with any of their politicians who do not stand absolutely behind the need for rationality, ie, who does not utterly and publicly repudiate any climate change denial, conspiracy theories or all the other tripe right wing politicians and media have been feeding the electorate over the last few decades. Have you done so?
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Wol at 19:50 PM on 19 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Just one word of caution on the subject of labelling people.
I am - possibly unusual in this blog - right wing. But that doesn't mean that I (and many others) necessarily lose the power of critical thought, although reading many deniers' responses in forums might so indicate.
What seems to have changed over the last few decades is the insertion of political leanings into what logically are questions that can be answered by science. If you are right wing then the science of climate change is rubbish. If you are left wing then there should be universal health care regardless of economics.
Western countries have a high degree of education yet there are still creationists, homeopathy is publically funded in many countries and Bookshops have shelves full of books on the occult, crystal healing etc often alongside "A brief history of time".
Perhaps it's time to accept that the planet really isn't worth saving?
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Richard13699 at 17:55 PM on 19 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Suggest that the world's scientists just boycott all US representatives who spout the nonscience until Trump gets the message.
I did not htink it could get theis bad... Being selfish, I am relieved that, although I have tried to do my bit, the consequences of science denial will only really hit when I am dead. I really feel for younger people.
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