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scaddenp at 13:07 PM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
Why do you believe that we have "irreversible rapid climate change" even if world manages to reduce CO2 emissions? There is committed warming obviously, but irreversable? Reduce the CO2 in atmosphere and temperatures will drop.
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denisaf at 12:40 PM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
This article about policy decisions of countries is anthropocentric blathering at the highest level! The stark reality is that the best that can be done by reducing the global rate of greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as is physically possible is to slow down the irreversible rapid climate change and ocean acidification and warming. What is really needed is a global focus on measures to cope with such consequences as sea level rise.
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nigelj at 12:21 PM on 14 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Good to see Clinton taking climate change seriously. Of course Clinton would face challenges if elected. Politicians may be slow to act on climate change as they are somewhat captive to their funders and popular opinion and worries about losing votes.
However America has one interesting feature, namely the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) which appears to be semi autonomous or independent of politicians, in the way the American system typically divides up power. The EPA has declared carbon dioxide a pollutant, and required various regulatory measures to be taken (to howls of protest from the Republican Congress, but they haven’t been able to overturn the regulatory measures).
The EPA might be a good approach for other countries to take, if politicians are worried about public reaction to climate change policies, as it hands decisions to technocrats tasked with simply protecting the environment.
The EPA does not appear to stop politicians promoting additional protections, but Obama has met resistance on this from Congress. But at least the EPA is there doing something in the background.
However the EPA can only regulate. Only politicians can introduce something like a carbon tax or emissions cap and trade scheme. So good luck to Clinton, if elected.
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nigelj at 07:32 AM on 14 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
"[The] basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish"
Couldn't agree more. Seems obvious to me.
"The ethics of the New Testament is indeed to "love your neighbour as yourself"
Very true and a basically useful teaching. I would say the teaching to love thy neighbour as thyself would presumably include your neighbours children and arguably their own future children and so on. If not why not? I can't think of a viable reason, that doesn't fall into the category of selfishness.
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ELIofVA at 06:22 AM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
I am confused about the statement, "On 3 September, the US and China jointly ratified the agreement.". I remember this in the news. However, how can Obama claim ratification without the approval of congress? Is the USA claiming to be one of the countries ratifying? Most people believe any climate deal could not be passed in Republican controled Congress.
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johnthepainter at 02:55 AM on 14 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Wow! An actual discussion of the most important issue in the campaign. I saw brief images of Hillary and Al Gore at this rally, accompanied by speculation about why Hillary had Al Gore with her and how that would help her, but I didn't seen any broadcast of theactual presentation, in which Hillary got everything right. And that's in contrast to the way all TV news stations, as well as CNBC, interrupt their programs to carry Donald's rants.
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Tom Curtis at 01:38 AM on 14 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran Marsupial @23, the Golden Rule, "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you", is not in fact equivalent to the the second of the two commands identified, first by Hillel the Elder, and later by Jesus as "being the whole of the Law", ie, "Love your neighbour as yourself". In practical terms, their guidance will often coincide, but the later requires far more than the former; and even more than the negative form of the Golden Rule ("Do not do to others what you would not have them do to you") taught by Hillel the Elder, and tracable to long tradition going back to Confusius circa 500 BC.
Taking account of pragamtics, and in particular conversational implicature, the negative version only enjoins that you do no harms to others, that you would not have them do to you. In contrast, the positive version requires you to do any good to others that you would have them do to you. In simple terms, consistent with negative version, you can ignore the want of the beggared blind person, so long as you do not steal from their bowl; whereas the positive version requires you to give aid to that person, at least if you in a similar circumstance would also desire aid.
In contrast, unless we take it to be hyperbole, the command to love your neighbour literally requires that you consider a given gain by your neighbour as valuable to you as the equivalent gain to yourself; and a given loss by your neighbour as undesirable as an equivalent loss to yourself. Or in the wors of Laoze (also circa 500 BC):
"Regard your neighbor's gain as your own gain, and your neighbor's loss as your own loss."
Of course, there is no reason to regard that command as hyperbole on Jesus' lips beyond the difficulty we would have in satisfying the command. Certainly, the more specific principles espoused on the Sermon on the Mount are only inconsistent with the command in seeming to undervalue yourself relative to your neighbour, so unless you ascribe all of Jesus' ethical teachings as hyperbolic (which precludes any possibility that your interpretation is based on context), you are left with the command to love your neighbour haveing the strict form I indicate.
Specifically with regard to the discount rate, it consists of three parts. The first is the expected return on an arbitrary investment. If we can expect a 3% return per annum by simply investing in the stock market, we may reasonably expect a similar return from investment in mitigating and adapting to climate change, and therefore should include that as part of the discount rate. Further, it is permissible to discount based on uncertainty of outcomes (although given the long tail of uncertainty, that actuall adds a premium rather than a discount in the case of climate change). Finally, there is the pure rate of time preference, ie, the fact that we prefer to have our benefits here, and now rather than at some distant time in the future. Consistent with the command to love your neighbour, that part of the discount rate must be zero, for it is impermissible to preffer the current generation over future generations.
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Tom Curtis at 01:10 AM on 14 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink @397, using data from the site which provided the data for your chart, and calculating an 11 year running average of montly sunspot numbers from 1750-2016, 1883 is at about the 20th percentile, and about 70% of the mean sunspot number. Neither of these is consistent with 1883 being a grand solar maximum.
With respect to Laki, I repeat, it occurred prior to the Dalton Minimum. Indeed, 1783 is in the 98th percentile of sunspot numbers, with 1.56 times the mean number of sunspots. Arguably that makes it grand solar maximum, but solar astronomers do not so describe it, presumably due to the brevity of the peak.
Your persistent ascription of voclanic eruptions to minimums when they are more likely to lie in a maximum, and to maximums (ie Laki), when they are quite ordinary years (ie, Krakatoa) shows your theory is not emperically derived. Further, because of the low forcing associated with fluctuations in the solar cycle, only persistent large fluctuations (positive or negative) can plausibly result in increased volcanic activity. Your wanting to ascribe Krakatoa to a maximum suggests you care nothing for that, giving your theory all the hallmarks for a deux ex machina for a "anything but CO2" paradigm. That is, your only evidence for your theory is that you want to believe it to be so to avoid believing that increasing CO2 is likely to have a significant impact on globat temperatures.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is offtopic. No further responses to Pink here on sunspots and volcanoes. Pink, if want to discuss "its not us" myths, then perhaps here (sunspots) or here (volcanoes)
And dont even think of making another assertion without backing your claim ( eg a link to a specific claim or evidence to support your argument). I'll delete your entire comment.
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Dikran Marsupial at 22:57 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Tom wrote "Put simply, the only valid discount rate permissible in the NT gives a pure rate of time preference across generations of 0"
I'm not sure I completely agree with that. The idea is that we should treat others as we would like to be treated if we were in their position. It seems fair that richer societies should not be subsidised by poorer societies, so if societies become richer over time it doesn't seem unfair to me to forgo a bit of that increase in wealth to solve problems for a previous generation. So a rate other than zero (if I understand it correctly) could at least be neutral from a "golden rule" perspective.
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pink at 20:19 PM on 13 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
tx for taking the time to write extensive answers.. but the sunspot chart i'm using:
http://facweb.bhc.edu/academics/science/harwoodr/geog101/study/images/sunspots.gif
shows krakatoa 1883 at a maximum as well
but also note that Tambora was a VEI 7s (dalton min) and Laki (maunder) was a 6 but dragged on for 8 months so it was the same as a 7 as far as cooling is concerned. There hasn't been anything like that for a while which probably raises the chances of a BIG one sometime in the next few decades, possible as soon as 2020's .. or it could be something like two 6's in a row.
also i noticed in bold type when i was looking up 'tony heller paid by oil industry' , he denies that and I would ask for evidence that he was paid a significant amount by an oil company(s), what company(s) is this, what oil executive(s) authorized it, etc. Such accusations bring blowback to orgs like SS that they are just here topromote the funneling of government money to certain research and technology ventures or to lobby for regulations that benefit a certain economic sector.
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Dikran Marsupial at 20:09 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
I confess that I am indeed English, guilty as charged! ;o)
It is worth remembering though that you are also required to love yourself if loving others is to have much meaning (also IIRC the Samaritans were religious enemies, which puts the parable into even sharper perspective).
Worth noting that the idea of reciprocity is not limited to Christians, but is the basis for most ethical systems (secular as well as religious). I quite enjoyed "The Golden Rule" by Jeffrey Wattles (Oxford University Press, ISBN-10: 0195101871).
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Tom Curtis at 18:57 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran Marsupial @20:
"[The] basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish"
I appears to be one of the understatements of the century*. I know that you are English, among whom understatement is a form of emphasis, but American readers will not recognize that.
The ethics of the New Testament is indeed to "love your neighbour as yourself", ie, to ascribe as much importance to the needs and desires of your neigbours as you do to yourself. "Neighbours" in turn, are shown by the Parable of the Good Samaritan, to include all people who are affected by our interactions. Regardless of the existence or not of a biblical warrant for conservation, this ethic alone provides sure biblical grounds for action on climate change. Put simply, the only valid discount rate permissible in the NT gives a pure rate of time preference across generations of 0; and at the same time, no multiplier greater than 1 (or less than 1) for benefits or costs in western nations relative to third world nations, as is a standard feature of many estimates of the cost of AGW.
Where I a Christian, I would go further and say that the basic religious message of the NT is that you should repent (ie, turn from your own ethics, to those of God as set out by the command to "Love your neighbour as yourself") and believe; and that those who do not accept that ethic in determined practise (even though they will fall short) have therefore not repented; and are therefore not Christians.
I am, however, an atheist, not a Christian. Therefore I leave it for Christians to define Christianity for themselves. Unfortunately, for most American evangelicals and/or fundamentalists, that definition invovles the prosperity gospel, which is completely at odds with the teaching of the NT.
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BBHY at 18:48 PM on 13 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
This is important, it has to be put out there for people. I've been waiting 8 years for Obama to give this speech. I'm glad Hillary actually did.
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Dikran Marsupial at 17:48 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
I agree that (as far as I am aware) the bible doesn't have anything specifically about conservation, however the basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish (which is what "love thy neighbour" basically boils down to - note that it is "as thyself" which suggests we shouldn't be unselfish to the complete neglect of ourselves). The question then is whether our use of fossil fuels should be regarded as selfish or unselfish. Of course this depends on what we are using it for.
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harga at 16:32 PM on 13 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #23
we must save earth by using a green energy.
save our future and save our children
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nigelj at 08:19 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Scaddenp @18, I totally agree on all points. Sadly some people totally ignore numerous specific Bible teachings about social justice as if these don’t even exist, while emphasising any clauses about making money in the Bible as paramount ( or about the bedroom). It’s an amazing act of cognitive dissonance, and assumption that these things are somehow mutually exclusive when they aren’t.
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scaddenp at 06:46 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
While I also agree that Bible doesnt say anything specifically on conservation, I would be hesitant to interpret "radah" in terms of subjegation. Context is everything - deciding theology on basis of one text when that is at odds with much else is a dangerous (if common) practice. It doesnt gel with reproachment in Ezekiel for harsh "radah" or belief that "radah" is for the benefit of those ruled not ruling. The book in OP seems to be pushing line that God cares for creation independently of Man which isnt hard to support.
A much more common thread in the bible is idea that if people of God are behaving badly, then environment turns against them (one of the means for God's punishment - powerful, warlike neighbours were another). I have no problem with idea that our current environmental woes can be laid squarely on the sin of Greed and chucking the 10th commandment out the window.
Another Christian concern should be that climate change is largely caused by a wealthy few while the impacts are largely felt by those who have contributed the least. The kind of injustice screams in every ethical system and social justice is after all the prevailing theme in the Bible. I am disappointed to see so much Christain outrage focussed on the morality of the bedroom instead of the boardroom.
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nigelj at 06:46 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran @ 15, thanks for the comment. Yes those may be reasons for contradictions. I don’t want to get into a big debate about the authenticity of the Bible. I’m an atheist, but I do think the Bible has a certain degree of wisdom on various things and there are probably a range of reasons for contradictions.
However the contradictions are still there. For example Genesis has different versions of how man was created, and the gospels give different accounts of the life of jesus and various events. This does create some challenges.
However the Usery issue is not really a contradiction. I would suggest the teachings on not charging interest and the additional teachings in the New Testament about not expecting to get a loan back as noted by Tom Curtis are more in the category of lacking clarity and practicality. I would compare it to the teaching "judge not lest you be judged" which is also not practical in the real world. These teachings reveal ethical principles that have some limited degree of underlying merit in certain situations, but are not fully resolved or explained.
This creates a huge difficulty. People try to resolve this by suggesting that the real meaning is just have some sympathy for borrowers in real distress, or not be overly judgemental. This is my interpretation, but it is not everyone’s interpretation, and there is the problem. Basically the Bible is not an adequate stand alone code of ethics for today’s world.
However you can take messages from the Bible and learn from it. That’s easy for me as an atheist as I view the Bible as simply a historical writing like an ancient encyclopedia, that you can pick the good bits from if they appear rational. However for believers its tougher as they feel it was divinely inspired. They sometimes appear to find it hard to sometimes agree on what parts are not valid in todays world, or which need a "nuanced" interpretation, given it all “could” be the word of God. However the mainstream Churches do seem to be generally taking more sensible interpretations these days on some matters.
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nigelj at 06:04 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Tom Curtis @ 14, yes I have to broadly agree with you. The Bible has nothing specific on the environment. However some people look for messages that they feel suggest global warming is natural, etc, as per my first post. Others are now trying to suggest the Bible promotes conservation or alternatively its “obvious” god would have wanted this.
I guess that leaves two alternatives. We either say the bible has nothing meaningful on conservation or climate, so is not an authority. Or alternatively we could argue that there’s “enough” to at least suggest that God would want us to look after the environment.
The trouble is by dismissing the Bible entirely as an authority on the environment could be seen as a slap in the face. Arguing that it broadly suggests conservation in a general way could be more useful in terms of persuading Christian sceptics. However I agree its not an issue that keeps me awake at nights.
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Oriana at 04:54 AM on 13 October 2016Climate's changed before
I agree that climate change will be observed whether humans are present on Earth or not. Just as historical records indicate, ice ages, which are significant climate change events, have been documented well before humans existed. The Earth will always undergo natural temperature variations and fluctuations. However, what skeptics fail to recognize is that humans contribute *significantly* to the rate of climate change, increasing these rates to an extent that is far beyond a natural cycle of climate variation. Of course, atmospheric carbon dioxide will always exist and contribute to the GHG Effect, with or without anthropogenic intervention; however, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are sky-rocketing, resulting in the propagation of global warming at concerningly high rates. The following article published in Nature provides excellent evidence that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions directly precede maximum peaks in global temperatures.
Abstract
The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO2 and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO2 in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO2 during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link. Please learn how to create links yourself with the link icon in the comments editor.
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Dikran Marsupial at 18:51 PM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
nigelj "The Bible contains some genuinely good teachings, however it contains contradictions and mixed messages and sometimes lacks clarity, in my opinion."
It helps to remember that it wasn't written as a single book, but instead it is a collection of independent writings from authors who didn't necessarily agree with eachother on everything (e.g. Peter and Paul). The new testament wasn't "standardised" until the fourth century A.D. and today is an example of "the nice thing about standards is there are so many to choose from". The bible we have today is mostly a sixteenth/seventeenth century anthology. This also applies to Digby's comment, understanding the bible isn't that straightforward, and todays understanding is through the filter of nearly 2000 years of theology (some of which may well be deeply miguided). Having said which, my reading of the bible suggests that we should try to be understanding towards those that we percieve as misunderstanding it. ;o)
As I understand it, the same is true of the "Old Testament", only more so, which makes it even more difficult to intepret.
The issue of usury that Tom mentions is a good example of where unthinking attempts at rigorous adherence to the teaching has led to extreme injustice. Francis Bacon wrote an interesting essay "On Usury" which shows that people have been struggling between following Christian teachings and living in the real world for some time (with Bacon attempting a rational justification for regulated usury - nice to see that banking has sorted itself out so well between the reigns of the two queen Elizabeths ;o).
BTW I think the verses from Luke are no so much an instruction against usury, but that we can't expect much credit for acts that already bring us personal benefit. I.e. it is an exhortation to unselfish acts rather than a prohibition on personal gain.
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Tom Curtis at 13:31 PM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
nigelj @12, by my reading the Bible has very little to say, if anything, about conservation. There are various arguments from that have been advanced to give one view or another a patina of biblical authority, but the subtle and indirect nature of those arguments is itself proof that the views are brought to the Bible, not taken from it. In the meantime, andybody presenting "biblical views" on conservation as a reason for an attitude on climate change is almost certainly shown to be engaging in (possibly self deceptive) propaganda by the habitual ignorance of very direct biblical ethics. In that regard, I have in mind particularly the Old Testament prohibition on the charging of interest on loans, which command Jesus modified by saying,
"And if you lend to those from whom you expect repayment, what credit is that to you? Even sinners lend to sinners, expecting to be repaid in full. But love your enemies, do good to them, and lend to them without expecting to get anything back."
As with many Old Testament commands, Jesus amplifies this one; and in two ways. First, while the OT forbade the charging of interest to Jews, Jesus extends the command to apply even to your enemies. Second, while the OT forbade the charging of interest, Jesus forbade any expectation that even the principle would be repaid.
This command, if taken literally, would forbid any interaction with banks or credit unions (or indeed, support of capitalism in any form). No doubt the people with subtle arguments as to why the Bible commands neglect of AGW (or the contrary) will also have subtle reasons why their neglect of the literal command of Jesus' should be ignored, and supposedly consistently with their "biblical literalism" - but at that stage it is clear that the Bible does not direct their ethics, except where convenient and/or in agreement with their pre-existing ethical tradition.
Given that, trying to track down just what is the "biblical basis", either in context or literal word meaning, of the "biblical views on the environment" is almost certainly a waste of time. Almost certainly the "biblical view" has been raised to provide pseudo-authority to a view taken for an entirely other reason; and unless that other reason is addressed, no amount of Biblical argument will shake it.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 13:21 PM on 12 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink, from an earlier comment of yours
" U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend" &"and then going to the current time where the NOAA declares every year 'the hottest ever"
NOAA's declarations are for the entire globe. Wheras the US is only 1.5% of the Earths surface. Don't you see the logical fallacy in in using this contrast. Contrasting a tiny paet of the world with the whole world is rather pointless.
Look at these two maps, of temperature anomalies for 2 periods - 1930-35 & 2010-15. Both have the same baseline period of 1951-1980.
The first shows the US as somewhat warmer than the 1951-80 global average, but not the planet as a whole. In contrast, the planet as a whole is significantly warmer than 51-80 although the US is actually showing less warming than elsewhere.
See why drawing conclusions from a small region is mesleading?
Simple suggestion. Whenever someone present data for only one region to you and then makes argumants about the entire globe, explicitly or implied, you should distruct them. Whether from ignorance, stupidity or deceit they aren't a realiable source.
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Tom Curtis at 13:12 PM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
MagmaiKH @139, the OISM petition results are not the result of an attempt to sell a product. They are the result of two seperate mailouts of packages including the petition card, and article, and a return envelope; plus provision of the packages to an unknown number of people by direct contact; plus 23 years on the accessibility on the internet with copious free advertising on "skeptical" websites, and from opinion pieces by "skeptics" in the main stream media, and even by mentions in Congress. The vast majority (~95%) of signatures came from the two mailouts plus associated direct contacts, so the most relevant response rate is that to mail surveys. Mail survey response rates in the US are about 37% with wide variability. On the false assumption that all 10 million "scientists" in the US were on the mailing list, the expected response rate woud be about 3,700,000 with the actual responses representing 0.8% of expected responses - the difference presumably being attributable to non-responses due to disagreement.
The direct distribution, was likely significantly less than the 10 million, but was likely also biased towards those willing to sign the petition. That means it is impossible to assess a genuine effective response rate, and the OISM petition project make no attempt to do so; nor to give out the data on how many packages have been distributed. Presumably that is because doing so would be unflattering. Given their refusal to properly indicate the denominator, determining the denominator as in the OP is a reasonable aproach to determining the significance of the petition.
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Digby Scorgie at 09:12 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
We know that there are people who reject any findings of science that conflict with their ideology. Climate change is just one example.
As an atheist I've never paid much attention to religion, but from the foregoing comments it would seem that there are also religious people who reject any biblical messages that conflict with their religious ideology.
There must be some common psychology involved.
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Eclectic at 09:00 AM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
MagmaiKH @ 139 , you seem to have missed the point that (by their own admission) the Petition project-ers began their collection of signatures in 1998 . So it took them ten years to amass such a pitifully feeble number.
The Petition is not just a lame duck . . . it is a very lame duckling, barely out of its shell, from an egg that's been "brooded" for 10 years.
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nigelj at 07:23 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
The Bible contains some genuinely good teachings, however it contains contradictions and mixed messages and sometimes lacks clarity, in my opinion. This leaves things rather open to interpretation especially regarding the environment.
To some extent we have to ask what did the writers really intend and draw some conclusions. We have to ask what the "weight of evidence” suggests regarding the environment. Genesis seems to suggest we care for the environment, and its hard to believe God would want otherwise. Jesus seemed to promote a philosophy of personal restraint, and loving they neighbour, which could be taken to suggest we care for the environment. How can we love our neighbour if we degrade our mutual environment?
Of course we have this Bible clause that says "rule over the animals etc" and the Christian Fundamentalists and political right wingers (some of them, disproportionately) seem to think this means we are entitled to hunt species at will even to extinction, and degrade the environment. They interpret the Bible in a way that suits their personal views.
However it's an interpretation that doesnt make much sense when you look at the Bible as a whole. Theres seems little point in people “ruling over the animals” and "multiplying and replenishing the earth" if we degrade the earth in the process undermining our ability to meet other Bible goals and teachings.
But there’s a certain fatalism in the Bible. Christian fundamentalists might argue the Bible suggests humans are fallen beings, destined to ruin everything, so it’s all inevitable including global warming and species destruction. Jesus is expected to come back and fix everything up.
This all reflects the many and varied messages in the Bible, which sometimes seem inconsistent or lacking in clarity. This suggests to me it was composed by human beings, with all their various views on life.
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MagmaiKH at 05:38 AM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
This is a completely inadequate analysis of the presented data and should be removed.
You have to address and accounts for the bias in both the IPCC and OIPM crowds.
You may as conclude that 2k/10M is 0.02% so the alarmist still loose.
Obviosuly not every one of the 10M 'scientist' responded to the OIPM call.
If you want to make an attempt at using science, without knowing better the typical hit rate on an advertised item is 1%. So 30k/100k would be the best estimate we can give with the limited (read: crappy) data-set and it would have an err on the order of +/- 25%. It's useless.Moderator Response:[PS] The article points out how invalid the OIPM petition is as a measure of scientific opinion. For a scientific examination of state of consensus then look at any of the 7 published studies referred to here
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william5331 at 05:38 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Basically, Dad (god) passed his great works on to us to care for. I could never understand the fundamentalists on the Right (and most of them seem to be on the right) wanting to mine, kill the last whale, fish the last fish, clear fell the forests of the world and so forth. If my dad had passed on the family business to me, I think he would have expected me to care for it and even improve it. Go figure. Perhaps the fundamentalist can't actually read or if they read, they have the mother of all cases of cognitive dissonance.
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skymccain at 05:01 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
It doesn’t really count for much to refer to the dominant message on the Old Testament as it applies to caring for the planet. The issue is actually how the words are interpreted rather than how the words appear. We must keep in mind that a great number of people who read the bible feel and think that it is “the word of God.” Secondly, so very,very few realize that Earth is a living, loving planet. My iopinion, yes I'm afraid so. However, most of us will not defend a "thing" out there.
“Genesis 1:26New International Version (NIV)
26 Then God said, “Let us make mankind in our image, in our likeness, so that they may rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky, over the livestock and all the wild animals,[a] and over all the creatures that move along the ground.”
The words “rule over” do not invoke “care for” -
RedBaron at 04:20 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Tom,
Good catch. Told you I was no bible scholar! So apparently it was the ancient Hebrews that were so domineering and harsh to the land that they needed special laws to prevent them from soiling the nest! However, shouldn't change the overall point for modern times though. Soil the nest and expect desolation from God. Whether the desolation comes from God or from the physical laws of nature, the result is the same....desolation. Atheists and the religious right should be equally concerned, not fighting with each other while the planet faces desolution due to not taking care of it properly.
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Dikran Marsupial at 01:54 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
For what it's worth, there is a biblical hermeneutics stack exchange which might be a good place to ask questions about this sort of thing (if they haven't already been asked).
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Tom Curtis at 01:01 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
RedBaron @6, for what it is worth, the word in Genesis 1:26 in the Hebrew, which is translated "subdue" in the KJV is described:
"kâbash
kaw-bash'
A primitive root; to tread down; hence negatively to disregard; positively to conquer, subjugate, violate
KJV Usage: bring into bondage, force, keep under, subdue, bring into subjection.Brown-Driver-Briggs' Hebrew Definitions
כּבשׁ
1. to subject, subdue, force, keep under, bring into bondage
a. (Qal)
1. to bring into bondage, make subservient
2. to subdue, force, violate
3. to subdue, dominate, tread down
b. (Niphal) to be subdued
c. (Piel) to subdue
d. (Hiphil) to bring into bondage
Origin: a primitive root"That which is translated "have dominion" is described:
"râdâh
raw-daw'
A primitive root; to tread down, that is, subjugate; specifically to crumble off
KJV Usage: (come to, make to) have dominion, prevail against, reign, (bear, make to) rule, (-r, over), take.Brown-Driver-Briggs' Hebrew Definitions
רדה
1. to rule, have dominion, dominate, tread down
a. (Qal) to have dominion, rule, subjugate
b. (Hiphil) to cause to dominate
2. to scrape out
a. (Qal) to scrape, scrape out
Origin: a primitive root"The Septuagint (translated into Greek by Hebrew scholars pre 1 AD) uses the word ἄρχετε, whose stem, "archos" means "to rule".
While I am neither a scholar of Hebrew nor Greek, and I am not aware of any contribution of modern scholarship to the translation of the word, it seems quite clear that the concept of domination is there in the original Hebrew (as best as it is known). Indeed, if anything the Hebrew is harsher in its terms than either the Greek or KJV.
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MA Rodger at 00:45 AM on 12 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
Tom Curtis @393.
Thank you for spotting the intended meaning of "solar maximums or solar minimums" @388. If it were more than "Oh my!" I would consider the implications of such a correction of interpretation. But "Oh my!" is about the sum of it.
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MA Rodger at 00:40 AM on 12 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink @391.
I think we can tell. Should I be concerned (as is Tom Curtis @393) that you seem to go all silent on assertions like "The 1930's was probably the peak of several hundred years of warming." or "There hasn't been a big volcano for a while- a few years from now they probably start going off due to solar minimums.. and the warming is erased."? Or should we forget about them, as you potentially have?
pink @392.
If I missed something relevant in that old NYT item, do say. If it did "demonstrate that over time the 'warming' keeps getting adjusted up in latter years and down in earlier years," then I'm afraid I didn't spot it.
I note you consider an adjustment to the RSS TLT V3.3 ocean temperatures (1997-2016) to be "very disturbing"? I would therefore strongly suggest you sit down and take a deep breath when RSS TLT v4.0 is eventually published. The effect of this adjustment you refer to is a massive +0.0023ºC/decade, well within the statistical confidence of the result. The conversion to v4.0 will likely have twenty-times that impact, or more. So be warned!!
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RedBaron at 00:27 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
@uncletimrob,
It is quite clear:
Genesis 2:15, The Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it.
Dominion is not the sort of dominion that doesn't repect God's creation. Specifically tied to it is the idea of stewardship and taking care of it. Very likely the connotation for dominion vs stewardship diverging came with the Romanization of scripture. I am no religious scholar or preacher by any means, but I have read the bible several times, and at least in my opinion it seems pretty obvious that care of the planet is one of the top principles in both Jewish and Christian (and maybe Muslim?) faiths. So much so that special laws termed Sabbath for the Land (Shmita) were given to insure against over exploitation of resources. And very severe penalties for ignoring this:
Leviticus 26:43 For the land will be abandoned by them, and will make up for its sabbaths while it is made desolate without them. They, meanwhile, will be making amends for their iniquity, because they rejected My ordinances and their soul abhorred My statutes.
I often wonder how any Christian or Jew could miss the phrase made desolate? And if we go from ancient to modern, where exactly are we to go to now that the whole world is populated? When the ancient Hebrews were forced to leave and their land made desolate, they went into captivity. What happens when the whole planet is made desolate due to not following God's laws and being the good steward? It is pretty astonishing to me how any person of faith could miss that.
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Tom Curtis at 23:52 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink @388 again evades discussion of points that conclusively refute his claims on this site. Instead he launches of with a whole new lot of out of context factoids and a half baked theory of his own. I will continue once more responding to pink's game of "look, squirrel", but do request that the moderators constrain pink to actually responding to the points raised against his claims in this and prior posts, either by raising cogent and germane evidence, or conceeding the point.
1) pink's first new "argument" is to misrepresent a New York Times article of January, 1989. The Times article does indeed say that there were no significant trend temperature over the CONUS from 1895-1987. "No significant trend", is of course, not the same as no trend, or zero trend. It means only that whatever trend exists was not statistically significant. Indeed, the modern NOAA data over the same period shows an Ordinary Least Squares trend of 0.033 +/- 0.0324 C/decade (two standard deviation range). Given that the error margins based on standard deviations do not account for autocorrelation, if autocorrelation was included the trend would not be statistically significant. So, not only did NOAA scientists in 1989 think the 1895-1987 CONUS temperature trend was not significant, their modern counterparts would agree. In contrast, the 1895-2015 OLS trend is 0.076 +/- 0.0234 C/decade. That is clearly statistically significant, and would be so even allowing for autocorrelation. So, pink's outrageiously dated evidence is clearly irrelevant given that the full record disproves the apparent point.
Of course, the article also included caveattes that should have prevented the misuse of it by pink, as already quoted by MA Rodger @390. Indeed, it goes on from the quoted section to mention that the area of the CONUS is too small to be representative of global trends, and to mention that "... average global temperatures have risen by nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit in this century and that the average temperatures in the 1980's are the highest on record". Failing to mention the caveats on the CONUS data, and the global data actually reported in the article is definitely out of context quotation, something which in academic circles is tantamount to fraud.
pink then procedes to contrast the articles results with the modern pronouncements by NOAA (in 2014, 2015, and 2016) that each year has been successively, the hotest on record. He fails to note that the person making those pronouncements was Dr Thomas Karl, one of the authors of the research which he indirectly cites. Given the credence he gives to the research of Dr Karl in 1989, his refusal to accept Dr Karl's research in 2016 is a clear case of special pleading.
2) pink then mentions the satellited data, without mentioning that all TLT satellite series show a statistically significant positive trend from 1978-2016. The curious thing is that there are (at least) four satellite series, of which only the two with the lowest trends are commonly cited. They all use the same data, and all come up with different answers as to what the trend was. That is unsurprising because converting satellited data to a temperature series requires more, and more controversial adjustments of the raw data, than does the analysis of the surface temperature record. Thus it is no surprise that the five official (and about six unofficial) surface temperature records, using distinct but overlapping datasets, and different methods all come up with the same trends, while the various approaches to the satellite data fail to do so. It is with good reason that Dr Carl Mears (the author of one of the satellite data sets) has said, "I consider [surface temperature datasets] to be more reliable than satellite datasets (they certainly agree with each other better than the various satellite datasets do!)." pink, not being aware of the complexities involved, merely prefers that data which appears to best support his/her previously arrived at position.
3) pink then invokes Sunspots and Volcanoes (Oh my!). Let me first state that I believe MA Rodger to have misinterpreted the theory. By solar minimums, pink means such extended periods of low solar activity as the Maunder Minimum (c1645-1715), the Dalton Minimum (c1790-1830), and the Modern Maximum (c1950-2000):
Constraining ourselves to volcanic erruptions with a VEI of 6 or above, from 1600 onwards we have:
- Huaynaputina 1600 AD
- Kolumbo, Santorini 1650 AD
- Long Island (Papua New Guinea) 1660 AD
- Grímsvötn (Laki) 1783 AD
- Unknown 1809 AD
- Tambora 1815 AD (VEI 7)
- Krakatoa 1883 AD
- Santa María 1902 AD
- Novarupta 1912 AD
- Mount Pinatubo 1991 AD
(Underlined volcanoes occur durring a named minimum or maximum. Source)
In all, 5 out of 10 eruptions occcur durring a named minimum or maximum. In all, named minimums and maximums occupy 39% of the time from 1600-2015, and durring those named periods, 50% of VEI 6 plus eruptions during that period occurred. In short, there might be a slight statistical link between the volcanic eruptions and the data, but you could not prove it on this data. You certainly could not prove it with pink's data, which counts Laki and Krakatoa as being during named minimums/maximums despite the fact that they clearly are not.
I do not discount a solar minimum/maximum effecting the rate of volcanos. Any factor significantly changing the quantity of ice in glaciers and ice sheets, could by the resulting change in the Earth's rate of rotation, cause stresses in the Earth's crust making eruptions more likely. Of course, that applies to any factor significantly effecting climate, including the strongest recent impact, AGW. But this, of course, is just a possibility - not a proven theory. Even if true, the impact is minor; and as the strong warming through the 1990s, despite the Pinatubo erruption shows; any consequent volcanic effect is likely to cause only temporary slowdowns in the onset of global warming.
Despite this slight possible connection, pink's treatment of the situation is, at best, very bad science fiction.
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pink at 22:40 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
and the point of using old articles and charts is to demonstrate that over time the 'warming' keeps getting adjusted up in latter years and down in earlier years.
This just came out, that animated gif is very disturbing.. it shows that even the satelite graphss are being 'adjusted'
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/10/remote-sensing-systems-apparently-slips-in-a-stealth-adjustment-to-warm-global-temperature-data/
Moderator Response:[PS] This again is very close to an accusation of fraud. If you find it very disturbing, then you need to show that the adjustment was wrong or unnecessary. Look at why the adjustment was made and whether it is justified rather than going into conspiracy theory mode.
It also looks like you have been taken in by denier nonsense again. See here for detail.
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pink at 22:28 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
I'm not geting everything i write from tony heller, he doesn't say anything on his blog about volcanoes, etc. most of what i'm writeing is just my own opinion.
Moderator Response:[PS] There is no interest on this site of opinion that is not backed with evidence.
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MA Rodger at 21:36 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
Eclectic @389.
I think you will find the comment of pink @388 makes perfect sense.
In support of the position of Heller/Goddard, pink @388 kicks-off with that 1989 NYT article. As you say, it is now old. Indeed, it describes research using data that is even older. But note that even back then, the researchers were having to insist to the NYT that their findings are not in any way supportive of climate deniers.
"Dr. Kirby Hanson, the meteorologist who led the study, said in a telephone interview that the findings concerning the United States do not necessarily ''cast doubt'' on previous findings of a worldwide trend toward warmer temperatures, nor do they have a bearing one way or another on the theory that a buildup of pollutants is acting like a greenhouse and causing global warming."
But if you are in denial over AGW, the words of Dr Kirby Hanson are an irrelevance. The title of the article is "U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend" and that is all a dener needs to read.
Of course 1989 isn't now. So it is only reasonable for pink @388 to supply more recent evidence to support his position that Heller/Goddard is "not going against common sense." Satellite data is always a good prop for deniers. Or so they think. If they actually looked they would see that even the much criticised UAH & RSS TLT data is showing warming, unless you deny it at which point it becomes flat. And not all satellite data does what deniers want to see. Consider RSS TTTv4.0. It shows (usually 2 clicks to 'download your attachment') significant warming on a par with surface measurements. But global temperatures can still be "flat on satelite data" if you deny the existence of satellite data that isn't "flat."
Of course, pink @388 does not entirely depend on simple denial. Even deniers needs a 'happy place' to provide that 'feel-good factor'. After all, deniers don't all suffer from psychopathy. So we are treated to a blunderful new theory from pink @388. Big volcanoes all occur during solar maximums & minimums Ooops. That isn't true. So it is big volcanoes that make a mess of the climate all occur during solar maximums or minimums.
But doesn't the eruption of El Chichón rate as one of those "big volcanoes that make a mess of the climate?" And wasn't El Chichón in 1982? And wasn't there a solar maximum in 1980? And a solar minimum in 1986?
So the 'happy place' described by denier pink @388 is, as with most such 'happy places' falls at the first hurdle. It is entirely dellusional. Note how this 'happy place' is also entirely incompatable with the 'happy place' described by pink @382. (Whether the Heller/Goddard position stands & falls with the loss of pink's 'happy place' is not clear: I think it falls independently.)
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Eclectic at 17:10 PM on 11 October 2016DOE charts show why climate doom and gloom isn't needed
denisaf @17 , as you say - liquid fuels are required for aircraft, ships, and trucks.
But why do you say that liquid fuels cannot be be manufactured via renewable energy ?
Hydrogen is not very practical : but surely bio-diesel (including jetfuel) and "bio-octane" could be up-scaled in production volumes. It is a matter of R&D , which could be pushed along rapidly with enough political allocation of effort.
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Eclectic at 16:50 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
Pink, you are not making much sense.
How can sunspots and cheap food have anything to do with volcanoes?? Pink, the friendly Mr Heller/Goddard is feeding you misinformation.
Ask yourself WHY you would believe him , rather than all the world's climate scientists - who tell a very different story, and who have all the evidence to prove they are right.
And use your common sense, Pink. The sea level is rising because thousands of Gigatons of ice are melting - melting because the world is getting warmer, not colder (and not "paused", either! ). Please just use your common sense, Pink.
Also - follow the money. WHY would you choose to believe Mr Heller/Goddard ( paid by the oil industry ) rather than believe the thousands and millions of scientists worldwide, who are paid from all sorts of separate sources - paid by thousands of independent universities; by more than 100 independent sovereign national governments; by dozens of meteorological organisations; by dozens of research organisations . . . and in addition there are the vast number of scientists, now retired and independently paid by their own superannuation moneys, who support what the "working scientists" have all been saying too.
As for the temperatures being recorded by the satellites - Pink, you are also wrong about that. They show a picture of rising temperatures (not flat or falling). They do not show genuine surface temperature , but a temperature which is predominantly of the upper atmosphere - mostly from thousands of feet above ground level. Quite misleading, to rely on that as a substitute for real genuine ground-level / sea-level temperatures. Mr Heller/Goddard is conning you there! Yet even then, when you look at recent satellite data, the trend is rising, and not flat or falling. Pink, you have let yourself be led up the garden path, into Mr Heller/Goddard's fairyland !!
Also, Pink, why do you quote from a New York Times reporter in January 1989 - that is very nearly 30 years ago. A lot has happened since then. Pink, how do YOU justify ignoring all the events since then? Ignoring a spectacular rise in the world's surface temperature; ignoring a 60% loss of arctic sea ice volume, and a great reduction of glacier volumes; ignoring a big rise in heat content of the ocean; as well as ignoring many other changes in the world (too many to list here).
You might just as well pretend you are living 20,000 years ago.
Pink, you are not making much sense.
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denisaf at 16:42 PM on 11 October 2016DOE charts show why climate doom and gloom isn't needed
This is a typical anthropocentric misleading comment on the emerging problem of coping with climate change (without mentioning coping with the associated ocean acidification and warming). It deals with the cost of clean energy technologies without taking into account the fact that these systems are made of irreplaceable materials, have limited life times, use weak energy income, are intermitted sources of electricity and cannot provide the concentrated energy in liquid fuels required by most forms of land, sea and air transportation.
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uncletimrob at 15:45 PM on 11 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
In the opinion of a priest with whom I worked a few years ago, had "Man shall have dominion over the Earth" been translated instead to "Man shall have stewardship over the Earth" then things might have turned out differently. I'm not a Biblical scholar of any sort, but dominion and stewardship have very different meanings.
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chriskoz at 14:39 PM on 11 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
So many people mispelled the name of Dr Katharine Hayhoe: commenters on this site, fellow scientists on Facebook, and now John Abraham in TheGuardian and herein...
I start wondering how Katharine feels about it. Perhaps, being a very nice person, she doesn't mind. But I'm puzzled... Not much mental effort is required to spell the name of such unique person as Katharine, a fairly common name. E.g. less effort than an effort of learning climate science as people do here.
Moderator Response:Good catch.
We will correct the spelling and email John to do the same. And be alert to it in future :-(
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Art Vandelay at 14:28 PM on 11 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #41
William @ 1. Even allowing for the explanation from Tom Curtis @ 3, you make a good point.
It would be interesting to know to what extent the global emmisions growth is subject to some creative accounting.
If emmisions growth is really negative we should start to see a change in the gradient of the Keeling curve within the next few years.
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Art Vandelay at 14:10 PM on 11 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Better late than never I suppose, but unless the various Christian denominations change their stance towards abortion, contraception, and sensible family planning, they're still a bigger part of the problem than the solution.
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chriskoz at 14:04 PM on 11 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #41
To elaborate on Tom Curtis@3 in intuitive terms (at least for a statistician):
Warm water dissolves less CO2 than cold water does: check second graph here.
During ElNino (as we've had in last year or so) the ocean surface water - responsible for excess CO2 sequestration - is warmer. Ergo, less man made CO2 goes into ocean, ergo perceived rate of atmospheric CO2 increase due to humans becomes higher than everage.
Correspondingly, During LaNina the ocean surface water - responsible for excess CO2 sequestration - is cooler. Ergo, more man made CO2 can go into ocean, ergo perceived rate of atmospheric CO2 increase due to humans becomes lower than everage.
However ElNino/LaNina variability has been perfectly balanced so far - no one has observed any deviation from neutral state. That's why an average CO2 concentration increase follows the cumulative emmisions so closely on Tom's graph above. ElNino/LaNina variability is seen on this graph as irregular red noise of few year to a decade frequency - precisely the average ElNino/LaNina historical frequencies.
Other sinks of CO2 exhibit different variabilities, e.g terestrial biosphere has very steady annual cycle visible on Keeling curve. But it is smoothed on Tom's graph.
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pink at 13:33 PM on 11 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
He's not going against common sense he just created a chart using unadjusted data. NY Times articles like this from 1989:
http://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/26/us/us-data-since-1895-fail-to-show-warming-trend.html?src=pm
[ U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend
After examining climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no significant change in average temperatures or rainfall in the United States over that entire period. ]and then going to the current time where the NOAA declares every year 'the hottest ever' even though warming is flat on satelite data, and some area's even show recent cooling cooling makes skepticism.
Also I don't know if you guys are aware of this, look at the sunspot chart:
http://facweb.bhc.edu/academics/science/harwoodr/geog101/study/images/sunspots.gif
ALL the big volcano's since the 1600's have occured during solar maximums or solar minimums, with the ones that erupted during solar minimums bigger that the ones during maximums. pinatabo, mtst helens, krakatoa, 1991,1980, 1883 during maximums. Tambora 1815, Laki 1783 dalton and maunder mins. Tambora and Laki were so powerful that they created freezing summers.
So the warming probably isn't 'that' abnormal, it isn't 'that' much-considering the weather and seasons are currently stable, crop production the past few decades has been stellar and food is cheap. There hasn't been a big volcano for a while- a few years from now they probably start going off due to solar minimums.. and the warming is erased. There's no reason to think the greenhouse gas effect is so powerful that it can make warming continue despite such powerful forces.
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Tom Curtis at 09:07 AM on 11 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #41
william @1, the rate at which CO2 is taken up into the ocean is primarilly governed by GMST relative to current CO2 concentrations. The result is that if you have a sequence of successively warmer years (such as 2012-2016), you will get a higher airborne fraction of CO2 in each successive year, with a consequent rapid increase CO2 concentration. Conversely, with succession of cooler years will result in a much reduced short term trend in CO2 concentration. Over the long term, however, CO2 concentration grows at approx 55% of industrial CO2 emissions (ie, those from fossil fuels and cement manufacture) or about 45% of all anthropogenic emissions including Land Use Change:
The upshot is that it is far to early to say that the recent more rapid increase in CO2 concentration is due to our having passed some tipping point and triggered a new feedback rather than just a response to the rapid increase in temperaure over the last few years.
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