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Eclectic at 11:32 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Bill N . . . my apologies for not completely following your chain of logic. Surely there must be some factor I am overlooking?
You have said there is no clear evidence (from the satellite measurements) that TSI has increased or fallen, since 1978. As to TSI in earlier times : observed sunspot activity has less than perfect correlation. And ice-core and tree-ring proxies are based on a deposition of certain isotopes - an isotopic deposition suffering considerable variation from changes in terrestrial magnetic field and changes in atmosphere circulation.
It is well established that there has been rapid global warming in the last 50 or 100 years. And the general scientific view is that that change is well explained by the radiative properties of CO2 (and other greenhouse gasses) .
Yet you yourself feel that possibly there has been a relatively large [ 0.1% or greater ] rise in TSI over the past century or two, and which possibly may have caused all the recent warming.
In addition, you will somehow have to abolish the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, in order for your proposed (but not demonstrated) large and rising increment of TSI to do its work in heating up the Earth. On top of that, you will need to explain away the observed diurnal and climatic changes mentioned by Michael Sweet (above) .
Bill N, your line of argument does not hold together.
So there must be some other factor which I have overlooked?
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michael sweet at 09:47 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Bill,
It strikes me that you are speaking with a great deal of confidence for someone who has not read very much about AGW.
In the Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism, there is an illustration at the bottom of page 3 that shows why we know without doubt that the warming is due to carbon dioxide and not the sun. If the Sun was causing warming we would expect days to warm faster than nights, summer faster than winter, the stratosphere to warm with the troposphere, the same amount of heat to be returning to Earth as backradiation, the same heat escaping to space and several others. We measure that nights are warming faster than days, winter is warming faster than summer, the stratosphere is cooling as the troposphere warms, more backradiation, and less heat is escaping to space. You will have to counter all of these observations if you wish to support your claim that unmeasured TSI increase could be the cause of warming.
I suggest that you forget all the propaganda that you have read at WUWT and other skeptical sites and try reading the Newcomers Start Here post on the home page. If you continue to post here with claims supported only by your opinion you will not get very far. Your opinion as an engineer about TSI measurements does not count much against the observations I have summarized above. It is not necessary to have any TSI measurements to be sure that the warming is caused by carbon dioxide pollution and not the Sun.
Keep in mind that the warming caused by carbon dioxide pollution was predicted in 1896 by Arhennius. Arhennius predicted most of the observations that I listed above 100 years before they were measured. You are countering a 120 year old scientific prediction with an ad hoc explaination that has a great deal of evidence against it and no measured support.
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kevanhashemi at 09:35 AM on 15 October 2016Global warming theory isn't falsifiable
We can falsify the claim that our CO2 emissions will double the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere in the next one hundred years using the fact that cosmic rays create roughly 8 kg of carbon-14 every years. See here:
http://homeclimateanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/10/falsification-of-anthropogenic-global_39.html
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nigelj at 09:24 AM on 15 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran @26, I smiled at your wikipedia information on hooning around in a car. I come from New Zealand, and as the article notes the term originated in New Zealand and Australia. Do you know how we deal with "boy racers" who cause a real nuisance? We passed a law allowing their cars to be crushed.
I certainly agree about interpreting the Bible with some flexibility, at least in this sense: The Bible has clauses promoting social justice and also making money, so whoever wrote the Bible had both in mind. The only rational interpretation is we should do our best to balance both. The only way of interpreting the Bible as a whole is rational, balanced insight, otherwise you end up simply ignoring entire clauses on rather arbitrary grounds.
I think you mean burning fossil fuels now might not be seen as selfish if it helps the poor "now”? This is of course what some climate sceptics argue. And there would be a cost on the poor now, but some form of income redistribution could counter this. And burning fossil fuels now is a burden on everyone in all future generations, and this is the greater issue and it would be selfish to ignore this.
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gws at 08:14 AM on 15 October 2016Science does inform policy making … sometimes
ABC News had an article too: Powerful Greenhouse Gases in Focus at Global Climate Meeting
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nigelj at 07:09 AM on 15 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Moreover @5, I largely agree. Clinton's campaign donors probably include fossil fuel companies, and they will have certain expectations that she not move too much on climate change.
In contrast Trump is more self funding, so in theory is less captive to lobby groups, but Trump is a climate change denialist. This is such an unfortunate and ironic outcome.
Clinton is also a consensus seeker / compromise type of person which has both its merits and problems. It’s fair to say the entire American system was designed to promote this style of politics. However it makes for slow work of dealing with climate change.
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Bill N at 06:28 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Hi Micheal,
You have hit the nail on the head bringing up the other measurements spanning since well before the satellite measurements. Indeed, a key reason for me "throwing out" reliance on the satellite measured TSI changes, is to force reliance on just the ground based measurements you are talking about.
These measuremnts primarily fall into two groups: accurate measurements of sunspots and faculae since around 1850; measurements of carbon-14 levels in tree rings going back much further.
On the sunspot/faculae measurements, the best solar modelling to date establishes a causal relationship between average magnetic flux in the solar outer layer (averaged over the 11yr sunspot cycles), and the "amplitude" of the sunspot cycles, with a higher amplitude meaning a higher magnetic flux. In turn, the solar modelling also establishes a causal relationship between the average magnetic flux and the TSI, with a higher flux meaning a higher TSI. Now until the latest sunspot cycle, the cycle "amplitude" (variation in areal sunspot/faculea coverage) has been observed to increase since the beginning of when such measurements were made starting around 1850. Using the latest greatest TSI vs magnetic flux vs sunpot cycle amplitude modelling, the predicted averaged TSI has increased on the order of 0.1% from 1850 to present. Based on our latest greatest atmospheric temperature modelling under solar loading, this predicts beautifully the observed solar warming of about 0.7C from 1850 to present. So there you go. Once you throw out the unreliable satellite data, then the observed global warming since 1850 is completely explained by the observed/modelled solar TSI increase, down to evidently the observed "stratospheric cooling" by including the above mentioned "atmospheric layering effect" of the natural greenhouse gas that is always present.
The carbon-14 data is used to determine past TSI levels by using modelling in which the cosmic rays inducing carbon-14 production, are partially "blocked" by solar wind production that has a known causal relationship with sunspot activity. The carbon-14 is absorbed by trees as they grow, with the tree rings giving a timeline for the past carbon-14 presence in our atmosphere. This then is used to infer past sunspot and solar wind activity, which infers then past TSI levels. The resultant historical TSI levels inferred from this technique, fit beautifully with the TSI levels based on the directly observed sunspots since 1850 to present, providing then key support for the conclusion that the observed global warming is solar induced.
With my principle goal at this website established, mainly throwing out reliance on the satellite data, the onus on folks thinking that the observed global warming is due to manmade greenhouse gas emissions, is to prove that it is NOT indeed due to a solar TSI increase since the mid-1800's, as this is the most straightforward conclusion that can be made based on the best modelling and science we have to date.
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Bill N at 05:06 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Hi RedBaron,
Unfortunately, there are scant numbers available, either from me or the instrument engineers/scientists for that matter, quantifying the degree of optical changes for some of the effects I have mentioned. That is indeed the problem.
For instance, I can assure you that no one has a handle on how much TSI is being lost by buildup of outgassing contamination on the specular optical surface of the cone traps of these instruments. Outgassing of even "clean" materials can be significant over time, with for instance even MIL-SPEC anodized aluminum coatings (typically used to make baffle chambers from) significantly varying in outgassing from one production batch to another, and from one type of cleaning procedure to another. Even though the FOV (Field of View) of the instrument picks up only a small fraction of the solar disk, so that the solar light intensity at the cone is only a small fraction of the full TSI, the instrument has to stay on for a while in order to come to thermal equilibrium when making a measurement (thermal equilibrium under loading is the basis for making the measurement). The result is that over time, the integrated solar power is enough to "fry" the contamination many many times over, turning it into diffusely reflecting "gue." No objective experienced optical engineer would ever be comfortable making the claim that even this one effect was contained within the required <0.01% degredation level, not without extensive testing such as use of the groundbased twin witness instrument placed in a vacuum and hit with a solar simulator. Even then, outgassing distributes differently when in 1g on Earth and weightless in space, so use of the witness to quantify this effect is "sketchy" at best (assuming the same production run and cleaning procedure was used for the chamber materials of both).
I hope the above example gives you a feel for what you're up against when attempting to achieve <0.01% optical stability. I can tell you that in the business, the way the game is played when such dramatically small radiometric stability errors are required, is that the instrument builder/user must prove that it is that stable, not that those of us that scoff at their overblown claims must come up with numbers indicating that it is not.
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gws at 04:37 AM on 15 October 2016Science does inform policy making … sometimes
This is currently in the news again, though overlooked by many outlets:
VOX: The biggest climate change story in the world this week is quietly playing out in Rwanda,
Reuters: U.S. optimistic climate deal will cut HFC gases
Suffice it to say, these are critical negotiations.
I want to highlight that the Vox article author made one big mistake when he said
Basically, we accidentally swapped one environmental problem for another. Oops.
As I wrote in my article above, the replacements of CFCs with HCFCs, then HFcs was no accident. The industry knew what it was doing, and teh scientists told them that one day these gases would become highly important. So "oops" maybe, but certainly no accident ...
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Bill N at 03:43 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Hey again @Eclectic. I decided to make a separate post on the stratospheric cooling issue to keep the TSI instrumentation optical stability postings separate.
My background for this issue: Masters degree in Physics. As an optical engineer, developed and/or utilized thermal modelling of spaceborne instruments and spacecraft that were heated by the Sun and cooled by their emitted IR radiation, determining then their internal and surface temperature environments under solar variations induced by spacecraft orbital and orientational changes.
Opinion on maturity of science: As far as I can tell, the science and modelling of solar induced warming of our Earth, especially when combined with the influences of greenhouse gasses present (manmade or natural), has not matured to the point to be able to definitavely conclude that the observed temperature distributions in our atmosphere indicate that manmade greenhouse gas emmisions are responsible for the observed global warming as opposed to a long term TSI increase. Heck, even a few years ago the "official" (IPCC) position was that solar TSI changes had essentially no influence on the Earth's temperature. Only recently then has the science matured to the point that it is now understood that long term TSI changes could indeed significanly change the average Earth temperature. Having only just found this out, claims then that the science has matured so rapidly since this discovery as to be able to distinguish between TSI based changes in our atmosphere and greenhouse gas based changes, seems highly dubious.
"Mixing" issue: Has the recent modelling included the effects of "chaotic mixing" of the stratoshere with the rest of the atmosphere. After all, this is long term warming we are talking about. Certainly the daily winds will "churn" the entire atmosphere to the point as to "swamp" layered atmospheric temperature predictions of one model vs another.
Greenhouse gas perturbation: Assuming that the above "mixing" issue has been properly accounted for, there is still the issue of greenhouse gas induced perturbation in the atmospheric temperature distribution. This will occur even if a solar TSI increase is causing the warming. So when modelling solar induced heating, the "atmospheric layering effect" of the natural greenhouse gasses present must still be included. My suspicion is that this is not being done by the folks attmpting to differentiate between solar and manmade greenhouse gas warming. It is simply a mistake then to model solar warming without including the "atmospheric layering effect" of the natural greenhouse gas that is always present. Once this effect has been properly included in the modelling, I strongly suspect that there will not be a significant difference between the predicted stratospheric cooling of the solar warming model and the manmade greenhouse gas model. As is well understood, long term geologic records show that natural greenhouse gas levels will indeed rise and fall with the Earth's temperature, regardless of the reason for the temperature change. So even if the warming is solar induced, don't forget to include the measured increase in greenhouse gas levels that go along with it.
Opinion: So IMHO, it can not be concluded at this point in our science and modelling, that the observed stratosperic temperatures indicate that the warming is due to manmade greenhouse gas increases as opposed to solar warming.
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michael sweet at 03:02 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Bill,
In the graph of TSI in the intermediate OP their data goes back to 1880, well before satellite measurements. In the link to their data (Krivova 2007) they describe a model that estimates the TSI based on a series of ground based measurements. I am not expert like you, but it seems to me that your argument that the satellites are not stable enough for the displayed data is moot since the data is not satellite based. Perhaps they use the satellites to ground truth the model? Can you address the issues with the model used to generate the graph of the data? Obviously it is best if you have a direct measurement but for the period before satellites you have to use the data you have and a model. The described calibration issues of the satellites are much higher than the changes in the TSI over the period of observation. Since it is based on ground measurements can the model be used to correct the calibration errors of the satellites?
It seems reasonable to me that if you had 30 years of satellite data you could calibrate a model that would generate data covering the period before you had the satellite data. For the climate argument they do not require the model to be absolutely correct, they only need relative TSI to determine if the warming correlates with TSI.
In the linked data source they describe several models of TSI that are used to generate data over various time periods before we had satellite or ground based machne based TSI measurements.
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Bill N at 02:04 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Hello "Eclectic". You are spot-on correct about me making no claims about either increased or decreased TSI being reliably measured by these instruments. I am simply saying that this "data point" does not exist, one way or the other.
As for ground instruments, even if they could be reliably calibrated to the 0.01% stability requirement (which in itself is dubious), the atmospheric induced variablities in ground based TSI measuement are enormous compared to the stability requirement, even if averaged over time. I am unaware of anyone that has established the ability to reliably ground measure long term TSI changes to the precision required.
As someone who spent a career dealing with optical stability issues, I can not overemphasize just how dramatically difficult it is to achieve 0.01% long term optical stability of radiometric instrumentation, even under the best of circumstances. Some scientists believe their instruments are a lot more optically stable than they are, and then we engineers have to present them with the "realities" of practical radiometry "in the field" to set them straight (I'm not picking on scientists here, oops, maybe I am, hehe). I hope some of the TIM folks aren't making any "overblown" claims about their instrument, or the similar previous ones. It seems though that some do indeed appreciate the difficulties involved, to the point of saying "it's not reliably stable enough."
I'll address the stratospheric cooling issue in my next post.
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RedBaron at 01:49 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Bill,
Could you put some numbers to that delta uncertainty please. Clearly as my post shows, they are making calibration adjustments (obviously at least in part due to the reasons you posted) and have quantified their estimate of long-term relative uncertainties. Where are your numbers? And how much difference between yours and theirs?
Thanks
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Bill N at 01:05 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Greetings "RedBarron". What you posted does not address the long term optical stability issue. There is no onboard instrumentation that can test for optical changes over time (see below for a caveat). The quoted long-term relative uncertainties of 10ppm/yr for the TIM have nothing to do with the continual optical changes due to environmental factors such as outgassing, dust, and sunlight induced degredation of the conical specular refelectors used. This is why use is being made of a ground vacuum witness under simulated solar impingement in order to finally get a handle on this. If you don't believe me, just look at what is being said about stability by some of the very engineers and scientists who fly these instruments. Finally, to obtain a time frame long enough for reasonable assessment of whether the average TSI is changing (over time constants longer than the 11yr solar cycles of course), use is required of the similarly designed radiometers prior to TIM use. Again, there is no way that the whole "daisy chain" of these instruments can be relied upon to the level of stability required. Note we are not talking about absolute calibration here, since each instrument in the series is calibrated against the ones already flying to measure TSI changes. But if they are all experiencing optical changes over time (at levels smaller than what can be detected by the absolute calibrations, but plenty large enough to swamp the long term stabiliy requirement), there is no way to know that.
The UV channel of the TIM spectrometer can though indirectly measure long term solar changes accurately, due to its use of a large number of reference stars in order to measure its sensitivity changes over time. But at present, solar science may not be mature enough to predict TSI changes based on purely UV changes (I far as I can tell). Perhaps if an instrument were flown that could use a similar "many-star" based calibration technique across a number of visible wavelengths, then the changes in our Sun's TSI could be reasonably inferred. But at present, even if the TIM UV channel could be used to infer TSI changes, it has not flown nearly long enough to quantify what these changes are.
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moreover at 01:03 AM on 15 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Tim DeChristopher was quoted on the Hillary/Gore event on Oct. 12. DeChristopher is the founder of the Climate Disobedience Center (http://www.climatedisobedience.org/) and is featured in the award-winning film “Bidder 70.”
He said: “While our political leaders are pretending that being better than Trump is an adequate response to the climate crisis, the climate movement is boldly stepping up to the unprecedented challenge of climate change with courage and commitment. Just in the past few days since the presidential debate ignored climate change, there have been several bold acts of civil disobedience around the country. The sustained resistance to the Dakota Access pipeline at the Standing Rock reservation in North Dakota had 29 people arrested on Monday for refusing to back down in the face of increasing repression and state violence. Four activists in New York spent all day Monday occupying the Spectra fracked gas pipeline that will run right next to the Indian Point Nuclear Power plant. Then Tuesday, activists in four states shut down all five tar sands pipelines entering the U.S. from Canada. Ten people involved in that action remain in jail right now with bails that range from $5,000 to $75,000.
“There is a stark divide between the politicians who seem incapable of thinking about the climate crisis outside of the boundaries of old assumptions about political feasibility and the activists who are making real sacrifices to treat climate change like the unprecedented crisis it is. Al Gore is campaigning for Hilary Clinton without questioning her extreme support for fracking and fossil fuel infrastructure expansion, while Al Gore’s own daughter, Karenna, is currently facing a potential two and half year jail sentence for protesting fracked gas pipeline construction in West Roxbury, Massachusetts.
“Too many failed centrist attempts to address climate change without standing up to the fossil fuel industry have taught honest pragmatists that we simply can’t deal with climate change in a non-confrontational way. Those failures have brought us to this point of record-breaking climate impacts. As the climate crisis quickly intensifies, the climate movement is committing to intensifying our efforts to defend a livable future, as yesterday’s huge pipeline shutdown demonstrated. We hope that our political leaders will join us.”Source: http://www.accuracy.org/release/climate-beyond-trump-and-gore/
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Eclectic at 00:03 AM on 15 October 2016It's the sun
Bill N @1172 . . . presumably for the same reasons, you are equally skeptical that TSI could have been shown to have "risen" significantly since 1978.
And then there's the matter of stratospheric cooling since 1978 ~ which also seems to suggest that the TSI has not risen.
And the cumulative and aggregate effect of data from ground-level instruments which are properly maintained.
All in all, "it doesn't seem to be the sun" . . . would appear to be quite correct.
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RedBaron at 23:33 PM on 14 October 2016It's the sun
Data Quality Description
On-orbit instrument characterization is an on-going effort, as the TIM team regularly tracks instrument degradation and calibrates the instrument servo system on-orbit, periodically updating the data processing system with new calibration values. Only minor corrections are anticipated at this phase in the SORCE/TIM mission. To date the TIM has shown lower degradation than any other flight TSI instrument, and long-term relative uncertainties are estimated to be less than 0.014 W/m^2/yr (10 ppm/yr). At-launch absolute accuracy is estimated to be 0.48 W/m^2 (350 ppm), largely determined by the agreement between all four TIM radiometers. The 4.5 W/m^2 by which the TIM read lower than prior instruments at the time of launch has been resolved as being largely due to internal instrument scatter in those prior instruments causing erroneously high readings (see Kopp & Lean, GRL, 38, L01706, 2011). Most of those other instruments have now corrected (lowered) their values, and are now in very good agreement with the SORCE/TIM. -
Bill N at 22:54 PM on 14 October 2016It's the sun
There is no way that the satellite instruments measuring TSI are stable enough to make any claims one way or another about its change since they have been flown (1978 to present). So the belief that TSI has been stable or even gone down based on these measurements is a myth.
Stability requirement: As is understood, a change on the order of 0.1% in TSI could yield the observed average warming. So in order to use these instruments to successfully state that this is not happening, they would need to be stable by <0.01% !!!. This is this stability requirement stated by the instrument engineers and scientists themselves (see for instance the Wikipedia "Solar irradiance" article, and then click on links to articles written by the instrument engineers/scientists). Mind you, this requirement needs to be satisfied over the entire series of instruments flown since 1978, with the change in TSI "passed through" several of these instruments to the present, using each instrument in the "daisy chain" to calibrate the next one.
Community stability assessment: In the community of engineers and scientists that actually build and fly these instruments, there is a high degree of skepticism that they are stable to the 0.01% requirement (or even anywhere close to this). Just Google the subject of satellite TSI instruments, or fan out from the Wikipedia "Solar irradiance" article, for yourself.
My background: I was an optical instrument engineer for my entire career, with a lot of that time working as a contractor for NASA GSFC (such as working to fix the Hubble telescope). I designed, built, and calibrated flying instruments, as well as the instruments used to test same. A considerable amount of my time was spent dealing with issues affecting the long term performance of optical instruments, including radiometric stability. With this experience, I was constantly called upon by NASA to evaluate the instruments built by others. If NASA had used GSFC to fly these instruments, as it "should" have done since it is GSFC's pervue to fly any unmanned bird within the bounds of lunar orbit, there was a fair likilyhood that the long term stability assessment of these instruments would have ended up on my desk.
My stability assessment: Any optical engineer with any radiometric experience whatsoever, would ROFL if you claimed that you had a radiometric instrument stable to <0.01%, let alone a whole "daisy chain" of them flown over decades in space. This is certainly true after examining the design of these instruments (active cavity electrical substitution radiometers), and the environment in which they operate. Leaving the electronics aside, there is no way that these radiometers could be assumed to optically stable to 0.01%, or anywhere near that performance. OMG, your hitting the radiometric cavity with full vacuum sunlight. Do you have any idea what that does to any optical surface over time? Also, no matter how careful you are, there can and will be outgassing from the internal surfaces of the instrument cavity (especially all that baffling), which will collect on the (designed) specular surface of the light cone used trap the light. When the sunlight hits that contamination, it will "fry" it, causing "globules" that will increase the diffuse reflectivity of the cone over time, thereby decreasing the amount of specular light absorbed by the cone, and therefore its sensitivity. This is something we intrument engineers have seen time and again with spaceborne instruments measuring full sunlight. The present generation has some accompanying ground "witness instruments" that are twins of what is being flown, and the engineers/scientists have wisely put one permanantly in a vacuum chamber along with a solar simulator to measure its long term stability under the expected conditions. But this measurement is still in progress (in my understanding), and I'll bet my last dollar that this witness won't even come close to being stable enough.
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Dikran Marsupial at 21:11 PM on 14 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
"Seems obvious to me."
It isn't exactly rocket science, is it? ;o)
Unfortunately acting on it is more difficult as we generally don't know our neighbours desires and requirements (they generally don't either, any more than we really know ours), which is why we need to have some flexibility, rather than dogma about it. If we can make the world a better place in the future by using fossil fuels now, e.g. by raising the standard of living or reducing inequality, then it is not clear that fossil fuel use today (primarily for our immediate benefit) is entirely selfish. It is a bit more difficult to argue that hooning about in a muscle car is an entirely unselfish activity.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 16:17 PM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
ELIofVA
The Paris AGreement is under the auspices of the The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
"The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992, then entered into force on 21 March 1994."
The US is a signatory to the convention, so it has already signed and ratified that threaty long ago. That step required Congress. Now agreements entered into within the treaty aren't then regarded as new treaties, but simply part of an existing treaty. My understanding is that under US law that does not require Congress.
Additionally the national targets are intentions, not strictly binding; there is no enforcement mechanism. -
One Planet Only Forever at 13:53 PM on 14 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
nigelj@3,
The EPA is a great idea. However, it can be hobbled by a lack of funding. And right now the Republicans control the House of Representatives which controls funding.
So what is required is a legal obligation for an EPA group to be guaranteed the funding required for it to properly perform its duties. And that legal requirement would need the teeth to remove from office any official, incluing elected representatives, that can be shown to have participated in r supported efforts to try to limit the funding of the EPA. And the law woule need the teeth and independance form influence to financially penalize anyone who tried to influence such officials.
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scaddenp at 13:07 PM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
Why do you believe that we have "irreversible rapid climate change" even if world manages to reduce CO2 emissions? There is committed warming obviously, but irreversable? Reduce the CO2 in atmosphere and temperatures will drop.
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denisaf at 12:40 PM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
This article about policy decisions of countries is anthropocentric blathering at the highest level! The stark reality is that the best that can be done by reducing the global rate of greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as is physically possible is to slow down the irreversible rapid climate change and ocean acidification and warming. What is really needed is a global focus on measures to cope with such consequences as sea level rise.
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nigelj at 12:21 PM on 14 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Good to see Clinton taking climate change seriously. Of course Clinton would face challenges if elected. Politicians may be slow to act on climate change as they are somewhat captive to their funders and popular opinion and worries about losing votes.
However America has one interesting feature, namely the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) which appears to be semi autonomous or independent of politicians, in the way the American system typically divides up power. The EPA has declared carbon dioxide a pollutant, and required various regulatory measures to be taken (to howls of protest from the Republican Congress, but they haven’t been able to overturn the regulatory measures).
The EPA might be a good approach for other countries to take, if politicians are worried about public reaction to climate change policies, as it hands decisions to technocrats tasked with simply protecting the environment.
The EPA does not appear to stop politicians promoting additional protections, but Obama has met resistance on this from Congress. But at least the EPA is there doing something in the background.
However the EPA can only regulate. Only politicians can introduce something like a carbon tax or emissions cap and trade scheme. So good luck to Clinton, if elected.
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nigelj at 07:32 AM on 14 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
"[The] basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish"
Couldn't agree more. Seems obvious to me.
"The ethics of the New Testament is indeed to "love your neighbour as yourself"
Very true and a basically useful teaching. I would say the teaching to love thy neighbour as thyself would presumably include your neighbours children and arguably their own future children and so on. If not why not? I can't think of a viable reason, that doesn't fall into the category of selfishness.
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ELIofVA at 06:22 AM on 14 October 2016Explainer: Paris Agreement on climate change to ‘enter into force’
I am confused about the statement, "On 3 September, the US and China jointly ratified the agreement.". I remember this in the news. However, how can Obama claim ratification without the approval of congress? Is the USA claiming to be one of the countries ratifying? Most people believe any climate deal could not be passed in Republican controled Congress.
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johnthepainter at 02:55 AM on 14 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
Wow! An actual discussion of the most important issue in the campaign. I saw brief images of Hillary and Al Gore at this rally, accompanied by speculation about why Hillary had Al Gore with her and how that would help her, but I didn't seen any broadcast of theactual presentation, in which Hillary got everything right. And that's in contrast to the way all TV news stations, as well as CNBC, interrupt their programs to carry Donald's rants.
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Tom Curtis at 01:38 AM on 14 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran Marsupial @23, the Golden Rule, "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you", is not in fact equivalent to the the second of the two commands identified, first by Hillel the Elder, and later by Jesus as "being the whole of the Law", ie, "Love your neighbour as yourself". In practical terms, their guidance will often coincide, but the later requires far more than the former; and even more than the negative form of the Golden Rule ("Do not do to others what you would not have them do to you") taught by Hillel the Elder, and tracable to long tradition going back to Confusius circa 500 BC.
Taking account of pragamtics, and in particular conversational implicature, the negative version only enjoins that you do no harms to others, that you would not have them do to you. In contrast, the positive version requires you to do any good to others that you would have them do to you. In simple terms, consistent with negative version, you can ignore the want of the beggared blind person, so long as you do not steal from their bowl; whereas the positive version requires you to give aid to that person, at least if you in a similar circumstance would also desire aid.
In contrast, unless we take it to be hyperbole, the command to love your neighbour literally requires that you consider a given gain by your neighbour as valuable to you as the equivalent gain to yourself; and a given loss by your neighbour as undesirable as an equivalent loss to yourself. Or in the wors of Laoze (also circa 500 BC):
"Regard your neighbor's gain as your own gain, and your neighbor's loss as your own loss."
Of course, there is no reason to regard that command as hyperbole on Jesus' lips beyond the difficulty we would have in satisfying the command. Certainly, the more specific principles espoused on the Sermon on the Mount are only inconsistent with the command in seeming to undervalue yourself relative to your neighbour, so unless you ascribe all of Jesus' ethical teachings as hyperbolic (which precludes any possibility that your interpretation is based on context), you are left with the command to love your neighbour haveing the strict form I indicate.
Specifically with regard to the discount rate, it consists of three parts. The first is the expected return on an arbitrary investment. If we can expect a 3% return per annum by simply investing in the stock market, we may reasonably expect a similar return from investment in mitigating and adapting to climate change, and therefore should include that as part of the discount rate. Further, it is permissible to discount based on uncertainty of outcomes (although given the long tail of uncertainty, that actuall adds a premium rather than a discount in the case of climate change). Finally, there is the pure rate of time preference, ie, the fact that we prefer to have our benefits here, and now rather than at some distant time in the future. Consistent with the command to love your neighbour, that part of the discount rate must be zero, for it is impermissible to preffer the current generation over future generations.
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Tom Curtis at 01:10 AM on 14 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink @397, using data from the site which provided the data for your chart, and calculating an 11 year running average of montly sunspot numbers from 1750-2016, 1883 is at about the 20th percentile, and about 70% of the mean sunspot number. Neither of these is consistent with 1883 being a grand solar maximum.
With respect to Laki, I repeat, it occurred prior to the Dalton Minimum. Indeed, 1783 is in the 98th percentile of sunspot numbers, with 1.56 times the mean number of sunspots. Arguably that makes it grand solar maximum, but solar astronomers do not so describe it, presumably due to the brevity of the peak.
Your persistent ascription of voclanic eruptions to minimums when they are more likely to lie in a maximum, and to maximums (ie Laki), when they are quite ordinary years (ie, Krakatoa) shows your theory is not emperically derived. Further, because of the low forcing associated with fluctuations in the solar cycle, only persistent large fluctuations (positive or negative) can plausibly result in increased volcanic activity. Your wanting to ascribe Krakatoa to a maximum suggests you care nothing for that, giving your theory all the hallmarks for a deux ex machina for a "anything but CO2" paradigm. That is, your only evidence for your theory is that you want to believe it to be so to avoid believing that increasing CO2 is likely to have a significant impact on globat temperatures.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is offtopic. No further responses to Pink here on sunspots and volcanoes. Pink, if want to discuss "its not us" myths, then perhaps here (sunspots) or here (volcanoes)
And dont even think of making another assertion without backing your claim ( eg a link to a specific claim or evidence to support your argument). I'll delete your entire comment.
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Dikran Marsupial at 22:57 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Tom wrote "Put simply, the only valid discount rate permissible in the NT gives a pure rate of time preference across generations of 0"
I'm not sure I completely agree with that. The idea is that we should treat others as we would like to be treated if we were in their position. It seems fair that richer societies should not be subsidised by poorer societies, so if societies become richer over time it doesn't seem unfair to me to forgo a bit of that increase in wealth to solve problems for a previous generation. So a rate other than zero (if I understand it correctly) could at least be neutral from a "golden rule" perspective.
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pink at 20:19 PM on 13 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
tx for taking the time to write extensive answers.. but the sunspot chart i'm using:
http://facweb.bhc.edu/academics/science/harwoodr/geog101/study/images/sunspots.gif
shows krakatoa 1883 at a maximum as well
but also note that Tambora was a VEI 7s (dalton min) and Laki (maunder) was a 6 but dragged on for 8 months so it was the same as a 7 as far as cooling is concerned. There hasn't been anything like that for a while which probably raises the chances of a BIG one sometime in the next few decades, possible as soon as 2020's .. or it could be something like two 6's in a row.
also i noticed in bold type when i was looking up 'tony heller paid by oil industry' , he denies that and I would ask for evidence that he was paid a significant amount by an oil company(s), what company(s) is this, what oil executive(s) authorized it, etc. Such accusations bring blowback to orgs like SS that they are just here topromote the funneling of government money to certain research and technology ventures or to lobby for regulations that benefit a certain economic sector.
Moderator Response:[JH] The striked-through paragraph is sloganeering which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
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Dikran Marsupial at 20:09 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
I confess that I am indeed English, guilty as charged! ;o)
It is worth remembering though that you are also required to love yourself if loving others is to have much meaning (also IIRC the Samaritans were religious enemies, which puts the parable into even sharper perspective).
Worth noting that the idea of reciprocity is not limited to Christians, but is the basis for most ethical systems (secular as well as religious). I quite enjoyed "The Golden Rule" by Jeffrey Wattles (Oxford University Press, ISBN-10: 0195101871).
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Tom Curtis at 18:57 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran Marsupial @20:
"[The] basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish"
I appears to be one of the understatements of the century*. I know that you are English, among whom understatement is a form of emphasis, but American readers will not recognize that.
The ethics of the New Testament is indeed to "love your neighbour as yourself", ie, to ascribe as much importance to the needs and desires of your neigbours as you do to yourself. "Neighbours" in turn, are shown by the Parable of the Good Samaritan, to include all people who are affected by our interactions. Regardless of the existence or not of a biblical warrant for conservation, this ethic alone provides sure biblical grounds for action on climate change. Put simply, the only valid discount rate permissible in the NT gives a pure rate of time preference across generations of 0; and at the same time, no multiplier greater than 1 (or less than 1) for benefits or costs in western nations relative to third world nations, as is a standard feature of many estimates of the cost of AGW.
Where I a Christian, I would go further and say that the basic religious message of the NT is that you should repent (ie, turn from your own ethics, to those of God as set out by the command to "Love your neighbour as yourself") and believe; and that those who do not accept that ethic in determined practise (even though they will fall short) have therefore not repented; and are therefore not Christians.
I am, however, an atheist, not a Christian. Therefore I leave it for Christians to define Christianity for themselves. Unfortunately, for most American evangelicals and/or fundamentalists, that definition invovles the prosperity gospel, which is completely at odds with the teaching of the NT.
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BBHY at 18:48 PM on 13 October 2016Hillary Clinton and Al Gore talk climate and energy in Miami
This is important, it has to be put out there for people. I've been waiting 8 years for Obama to give this speech. I'm glad Hillary actually did.
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Dikran Marsupial at 17:48 PM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
I agree that (as far as I am aware) the bible doesn't have anything specifically about conservation, however the basic theme of the new testament is that we should try to be a bit more unselfish and a bit less selfish (which is what "love thy neighbour" basically boils down to - note that it is "as thyself" which suggests we shouldn't be unselfish to the complete neglect of ourselves). The question then is whether our use of fossil fuels should be regarded as selfish or unselfish. Of course this depends on what we are using it for.
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harga at 16:32 PM on 13 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #23
we must save earth by using a green energy.
save our future and save our children
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nigelj at 08:19 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Scaddenp @18, I totally agree on all points. Sadly some people totally ignore numerous specific Bible teachings about social justice as if these don’t even exist, while emphasising any clauses about making money in the Bible as paramount ( or about the bedroom). It’s an amazing act of cognitive dissonance, and assumption that these things are somehow mutually exclusive when they aren’t.
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scaddenp at 06:46 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
While I also agree that Bible doesnt say anything specifically on conservation, I would be hesitant to interpret "radah" in terms of subjegation. Context is everything - deciding theology on basis of one text when that is at odds with much else is a dangerous (if common) practice. It doesnt gel with reproachment in Ezekiel for harsh "radah" or belief that "radah" is for the benefit of those ruled not ruling. The book in OP seems to be pushing line that God cares for creation independently of Man which isnt hard to support.
A much more common thread in the bible is idea that if people of God are behaving badly, then environment turns against them (one of the means for God's punishment - powerful, warlike neighbours were another). I have no problem with idea that our current environmental woes can be laid squarely on the sin of Greed and chucking the 10th commandment out the window.
Another Christian concern should be that climate change is largely caused by a wealthy few while the impacts are largely felt by those who have contributed the least. The kind of injustice screams in every ethical system and social justice is after all the prevailing theme in the Bible. I am disappointed to see so much Christain outrage focussed on the morality of the bedroom instead of the boardroom.
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nigelj at 06:46 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Dikran @ 15, thanks for the comment. Yes those may be reasons for contradictions. I don’t want to get into a big debate about the authenticity of the Bible. I’m an atheist, but I do think the Bible has a certain degree of wisdom on various things and there are probably a range of reasons for contradictions.
However the contradictions are still there. For example Genesis has different versions of how man was created, and the gospels give different accounts of the life of jesus and various events. This does create some challenges.
However the Usery issue is not really a contradiction. I would suggest the teachings on not charging interest and the additional teachings in the New Testament about not expecting to get a loan back as noted by Tom Curtis are more in the category of lacking clarity and practicality. I would compare it to the teaching "judge not lest you be judged" which is also not practical in the real world. These teachings reveal ethical principles that have some limited degree of underlying merit in certain situations, but are not fully resolved or explained.
This creates a huge difficulty. People try to resolve this by suggesting that the real meaning is just have some sympathy for borrowers in real distress, or not be overly judgemental. This is my interpretation, but it is not everyone’s interpretation, and there is the problem. Basically the Bible is not an adequate stand alone code of ethics for today’s world.
However you can take messages from the Bible and learn from it. That’s easy for me as an atheist as I view the Bible as simply a historical writing like an ancient encyclopedia, that you can pick the good bits from if they appear rational. However for believers its tougher as they feel it was divinely inspired. They sometimes appear to find it hard to sometimes agree on what parts are not valid in todays world, or which need a "nuanced" interpretation, given it all “could” be the word of God. However the mainstream Churches do seem to be generally taking more sensible interpretations these days on some matters.
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nigelj at 06:04 AM on 13 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Tom Curtis @ 14, yes I have to broadly agree with you. The Bible has nothing specific on the environment. However some people look for messages that they feel suggest global warming is natural, etc, as per my first post. Others are now trying to suggest the Bible promotes conservation or alternatively its “obvious” god would have wanted this.
I guess that leaves two alternatives. We either say the bible has nothing meaningful on conservation or climate, so is not an authority. Or alternatively we could argue that there’s “enough” to at least suggest that God would want us to look after the environment.
The trouble is by dismissing the Bible entirely as an authority on the environment could be seen as a slap in the face. Arguing that it broadly suggests conservation in a general way could be more useful in terms of persuading Christian sceptics. However I agree its not an issue that keeps me awake at nights.
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Oriana at 04:54 AM on 13 October 2016Climate's changed before
I agree that climate change will be observed whether humans are present on Earth or not. Just as historical records indicate, ice ages, which are significant climate change events, have been documented well before humans existed. The Earth will always undergo natural temperature variations and fluctuations. However, what skeptics fail to recognize is that humans contribute *significantly* to the rate of climate change, increasing these rates to an extent that is far beyond a natural cycle of climate variation. Of course, atmospheric carbon dioxide will always exist and contribute to the GHG Effect, with or without anthropogenic intervention; however, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are sky-rocketing, resulting in the propagation of global warming at concerningly high rates. The following article published in Nature provides excellent evidence that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions directly precede maximum peaks in global temperatures.
Abstract
The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO2 and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO2 in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO2 during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link. Please learn how to create links yourself with the link icon in the comments editor.
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Dikran Marsupial at 18:51 PM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
nigelj "The Bible contains some genuinely good teachings, however it contains contradictions and mixed messages and sometimes lacks clarity, in my opinion."
It helps to remember that it wasn't written as a single book, but instead it is a collection of independent writings from authors who didn't necessarily agree with eachother on everything (e.g. Peter and Paul). The new testament wasn't "standardised" until the fourth century A.D. and today is an example of "the nice thing about standards is there are so many to choose from". The bible we have today is mostly a sixteenth/seventeenth century anthology. This also applies to Digby's comment, understanding the bible isn't that straightforward, and todays understanding is through the filter of nearly 2000 years of theology (some of which may well be deeply miguided). Having said which, my reading of the bible suggests that we should try to be understanding towards those that we percieve as misunderstanding it. ;o)
As I understand it, the same is true of the "Old Testament", only more so, which makes it even more difficult to intepret.
The issue of usury that Tom mentions is a good example of where unthinking attempts at rigorous adherence to the teaching has led to extreme injustice. Francis Bacon wrote an interesting essay "On Usury" which shows that people have been struggling between following Christian teachings and living in the real world for some time (with Bacon attempting a rational justification for regulated usury - nice to see that banking has sorted itself out so well between the reigns of the two queen Elizabeths ;o).
BTW I think the verses from Luke are no so much an instruction against usury, but that we can't expect much credit for acts that already bring us personal benefit. I.e. it is an exhortation to unselfish acts rather than a prohibition on personal gain.
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Tom Curtis at 13:31 PM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
nigelj @12, by my reading the Bible has very little to say, if anything, about conservation. There are various arguments from that have been advanced to give one view or another a patina of biblical authority, but the subtle and indirect nature of those arguments is itself proof that the views are brought to the Bible, not taken from it. In the meantime, andybody presenting "biblical views" on conservation as a reason for an attitude on climate change is almost certainly shown to be engaging in (possibly self deceptive) propaganda by the habitual ignorance of very direct biblical ethics. In that regard, I have in mind particularly the Old Testament prohibition on the charging of interest on loans, which command Jesus modified by saying,
"And if you lend to those from whom you expect repayment, what credit is that to you? Even sinners lend to sinners, expecting to be repaid in full. But love your enemies, do good to them, and lend to them without expecting to get anything back."
As with many Old Testament commands, Jesus amplifies this one; and in two ways. First, while the OT forbade the charging of interest to Jews, Jesus extends the command to apply even to your enemies. Second, while the OT forbade the charging of interest, Jesus forbade any expectation that even the principle would be repaid.
This command, if taken literally, would forbid any interaction with banks or credit unions (or indeed, support of capitalism in any form). No doubt the people with subtle arguments as to why the Bible commands neglect of AGW (or the contrary) will also have subtle reasons why their neglect of the literal command of Jesus' should be ignored, and supposedly consistently with their "biblical literalism" - but at that stage it is clear that the Bible does not direct their ethics, except where convenient and/or in agreement with their pre-existing ethical tradition.
Given that, trying to track down just what is the "biblical basis", either in context or literal word meaning, of the "biblical views on the environment" is almost certainly a waste of time. Almost certainly the "biblical view" has been raised to provide pseudo-authority to a view taken for an entirely other reason; and unless that other reason is addressed, no amount of Biblical argument will shake it.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 13:21 PM on 12 October 2016Temp record is unreliable
pink, from an earlier comment of yours
" U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend" &"and then going to the current time where the NOAA declares every year 'the hottest ever"
NOAA's declarations are for the entire globe. Wheras the US is only 1.5% of the Earths surface. Don't you see the logical fallacy in in using this contrast. Contrasting a tiny paet of the world with the whole world is rather pointless.
Look at these two maps, of temperature anomalies for 2 periods - 1930-35 & 2010-15. Both have the same baseline period of 1951-1980.
The first shows the US as somewhat warmer than the 1951-80 global average, but not the planet as a whole. In contrast, the planet as a whole is significantly warmer than 51-80 although the US is actually showing less warming than elsewhere.
See why drawing conclusions from a small region is mesleading?
Simple suggestion. Whenever someone present data for only one region to you and then makes argumants about the entire globe, explicitly or implied, you should distruct them. Whether from ignorance, stupidity or deceit they aren't a realiable source.
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Tom Curtis at 13:12 PM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
MagmaiKH @139, the OISM petition results are not the result of an attempt to sell a product. They are the result of two seperate mailouts of packages including the petition card, and article, and a return envelope; plus provision of the packages to an unknown number of people by direct contact; plus 23 years on the accessibility on the internet with copious free advertising on "skeptical" websites, and from opinion pieces by "skeptics" in the main stream media, and even by mentions in Congress. The vast majority (~95%) of signatures came from the two mailouts plus associated direct contacts, so the most relevant response rate is that to mail surveys. Mail survey response rates in the US are about 37% with wide variability. On the false assumption that all 10 million "scientists" in the US were on the mailing list, the expected response rate woud be about 3,700,000 with the actual responses representing 0.8% of expected responses - the difference presumably being attributable to non-responses due to disagreement.
The direct distribution, was likely significantly less than the 10 million, but was likely also biased towards those willing to sign the petition. That means it is impossible to assess a genuine effective response rate, and the OISM petition project make no attempt to do so; nor to give out the data on how many packages have been distributed. Presumably that is because doing so would be unflattering. Given their refusal to properly indicate the denominator, determining the denominator as in the OP is a reasonable aproach to determining the significance of the petition.
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Digby Scorgie at 09:12 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
We know that there are people who reject any findings of science that conflict with their ideology. Climate change is just one example.
As an atheist I've never paid much attention to religion, but from the foregoing comments it would seem that there are also religious people who reject any biblical messages that conflict with their religious ideology.
There must be some common psychology involved.
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Eclectic at 09:00 AM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
MagmaiKH @ 139 , you seem to have missed the point that (by their own admission) the Petition project-ers began their collection of signatures in 1998 . So it took them ten years to amass such a pitifully feeble number.
The Petition is not just a lame duck . . . it is a very lame duckling, barely out of its shell, from an egg that's been "brooded" for 10 years.
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nigelj at 07:23 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
The Bible contains some genuinely good teachings, however it contains contradictions and mixed messages and sometimes lacks clarity, in my opinion. This leaves things rather open to interpretation especially regarding the environment.
To some extent we have to ask what did the writers really intend and draw some conclusions. We have to ask what the "weight of evidence” suggests regarding the environment. Genesis seems to suggest we care for the environment, and its hard to believe God would want otherwise. Jesus seemed to promote a philosophy of personal restraint, and loving they neighbour, which could be taken to suggest we care for the environment. How can we love our neighbour if we degrade our mutual environment?
Of course we have this Bible clause that says "rule over the animals etc" and the Christian Fundamentalists and political right wingers (some of them, disproportionately) seem to think this means we are entitled to hunt species at will even to extinction, and degrade the environment. They interpret the Bible in a way that suits their personal views.
However it's an interpretation that doesnt make much sense when you look at the Bible as a whole. Theres seems little point in people “ruling over the animals” and "multiplying and replenishing the earth" if we degrade the earth in the process undermining our ability to meet other Bible goals and teachings.
But there’s a certain fatalism in the Bible. Christian fundamentalists might argue the Bible suggests humans are fallen beings, destined to ruin everything, so it’s all inevitable including global warming and species destruction. Jesus is expected to come back and fix everything up.
This all reflects the many and varied messages in the Bible, which sometimes seem inconsistent or lacking in clarity. This suggests to me it was composed by human beings, with all their various views on life.
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MagmaiKH at 05:38 AM on 12 October 2016Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
This is a completely inadequate analysis of the presented data and should be removed.
You have to address and accounts for the bias in both the IPCC and OIPM crowds.
You may as conclude that 2k/10M is 0.02% so the alarmist still loose.
Obviosuly not every one of the 10M 'scientist' responded to the OIPM call.
If you want to make an attempt at using science, without knowing better the typical hit rate on an advertised item is 1%. So 30k/100k would be the best estimate we can give with the limited (read: crappy) data-set and it would have an err on the order of +/- 25%. It's useless.Moderator Response:[PS] The article points out how invalid the OIPM petition is as a measure of scientific opinion. For a scientific examination of state of consensus then look at any of the 7 published studies referred to here
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william5331 at 05:38 AM on 12 October 2016Caring for Creation makes the Christian case for climate action
Basically, Dad (god) passed his great works on to us to care for. I could never understand the fundamentalists on the Right (and most of them seem to be on the right) wanting to mine, kill the last whale, fish the last fish, clear fell the forests of the world and so forth. If my dad had passed on the family business to me, I think he would have expected me to care for it and even improve it. Go figure. Perhaps the fundamentalist can't actually read or if they read, they have the mother of all cases of cognitive dissonance.
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