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One Planet Only Forever at 01:26 AM on 9 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Eclectic and Art Vandelay,
I prefer to refer to the required action as raising awareness and improving the understanding of things.
For this issue that begins with the undeniable reality of increased CO2 in the recycling environment of our planet from actions like buried hydrocarbons being dug up and burned or forests being cut down without replacement growth, and the constantly improving understanding of the implications and impacts of the increased CO2 (in the atmosphere and the oceans).
As Eclectic has mentioned some people are determined to not even accept that undeniable starting point for a discussion. Some may appear to accept that starting point but then declare that CO2 is plant food, or warmer is better, or it won't be getting taht much warmer, or some other excuse. Those people are determined to be lost causes for humanity. The only effective action regarding such a person is to figure out why they are so determined to not better understand the issue and overcome their determination to resist better understanding the issue. When a person has a strong self-interest as the basis for their determination it can be very difficult change their way of thinking, they will mentally fight harder and even less rationally.
Even some very intelligent and well aware people have been choosing to put a lot of effort into trying to create appealing justifications for what they can actually understand are not justifiable beliefs.
My best understanding of what is going on is that the real root problem is the power of the science of misleading marketing which is able to be abused in the social and economic systems that are so easily to develop appeal for (popular support for unsustainable damaging pursuits that are contrary to the advancement of humanity have been developed in all types of systems: communism, socialism and capitalism). Who would not be potentially tempted to desire and support the "Freedom to believe and do whatever they please" or support "Actions that would be to the benefit of a portion of humanity (a tribe) even if the action can be understood to be detrimental to other humans (or other life on this amazing planet)" or "Not pay taxes that would be spent to benefit other people" or "Be able to live decently without having to participate in the actual helping of others and other life to advance humanity to a lasting better future for all"?
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Martin Gisser at 01:17 AM on 9 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
GMU had quite a bad name - until recently? Patrick Michaels, S. Fred Singer, Ed Wegman. Lots of Koch brothers money.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/George_Mason_University
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/04/16/858016/-George-Mason:-Climate-Denial-U
http://www.desmogblog.com/koch-and-george-mason-university
But now: Great to see you go there!
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed links. Please learn how to do this yourself with the Link icon in the comment editor
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Eclectic at 19:38 PM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Art Vandelay @13 , thank you for your comments.
The deniers - those who are "gravely skeptical" - are not the low-level deniers who know precious little about climate other than what they get from Fox News and similar propaganda sources. The "low-level" types would, most of them, be prepared to consider re-evaluating their views if and when face to face in a room with polite personable climate scientists who provided skilled factual information.
But the top-level deniers, the true deniers you call "gravely skeptical", are another kettle of fish altogether. ( If I have misinterpreted your description of these particular "gravely skeptical" friends, then please give a detailed description of their attitudes and underlying motivations, plus their climate science knowledge and their general understanding of economics and Conspiracy Theorism. )
My earlier comments were in no way related to ethnicity or particular intelligence [ please note that "morons" was your choice of wording, which I take as you being somewhat hyperbolical ! ] So profiling and stereotyping are entirely inappropriate words for my type of description, which is intended to be generic and accurate ( based on my extensive experience with a considerable number of fervently outspoken deniers ) .
My main point was that in this day and age of freely available high-quality scientific information, it is impossible to be "gravely skeptical" based on an open mind and minimal initial knowledge of climate matters. To be "gravely skeptical" requires a determined resistance to the mountain of facts which are available to the intelligent open mind.
Art, you will not change those who have chosen to stay in a bunker.
Save your energy for the job of educating of those who aren't a lost cause. In other words :- for those who are mildly indifferent and unthinking, and who lack the Conspiracy Theorist paranoia.
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Tom Curtis at 14:57 PM on 8 September 2016There is no consensus
dfern @735, here are the IPCC's AR5 attribution of recent warming (1951-2010) to various anthropogenic factors based on their figure 10.5:
Note, OA stands for Other Anthropogenic factors, primarilly the aerosol direct and indirect effects and Land Use Change, all of which are negative forcings. As indicated, the certainty of the total anthropogenic contribution is much greater than that for the decomposed elements. The figure needs a slight qualification in that it does not include the uncertainty of the correctness of the models, so that the actual uncertainty is larger than that shown, but not quantifiably so. To allow for this, the IPCC AR5 stated that at least 90% of the Probability Density Function of anthropogenic contribution (ie, the equivalent of the area under the orange line, once model uncertainty is accounted for) lies above 50%. They used a technical short hand to say that, but that is the ghist. Note that expanding the uncertainty will reduce the peak, and broaden the area under the curve, but ill not shift the position of the peak, so that the most probable anthropogenic contribution is 108% over that interval, and the most probable greenhouse gas contribution is 138%.
In short, your supposition that the IPCC has not directly answered the question as to the percentage of warming contributed by anthropogenic factors, or even greenhouse gases is false.
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dfern at 14:20 PM on 8 September 2016There is no consensus
If the body of evidence is so strong and the concensus so overwhelming, why is it that no organisation, including IPCC, will directly answer the question "what percentage of forecast global warming is due to greenhouse gas emissions". They seem happy to forecast temperature rises to a tenth of a degree over a decade, so presumably have data to segregate causes.
Moderator Response:Welcome to Skeptical Science. Please take the time to review the comments policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.
In particular, please note the ban on sloganeering which your comment runs dangerously close to. This means that you must back your assertions with references/data.
Your comment seems strange because it appears that you have not in fact read what the IPCC says. It does not "forecast" as such, nor do models have any skill at decadal level prediction of surface temperature. The report most certainly does have an attribution statement on warming.
"It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period."
That statement is discussed in more detail here.
You will find discussions here more productive if you do not raise strawmen arguments (ie make sure what you claim someone says is in fact true).
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Art Vandelay at 14:15 PM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Eclectic @12,
In my experience, profiling and stereotyping is more likely to result in a dismissal of, or resistance to the message, particularly if used with combative or demeaning intent. Most of us accept that it's not helpful to label people of specific ethnicity as less intelligent, even if some empirical evidence exists. If we create an 'us' and 'them' divide we also create a barrier towards the sharing of values and trust between groups, but that's precisely the situation that exists between the conservative class and the progressive class on the subject of climate, and every time we assign derogatory labels or employ psychological or intellectual profiling we only further entrench the divide.
My feeling is, if it was possible to get a bunch of climate skeptics into a room with a few climate scientists it would likely lead to a positive outcome. As it is at the moment, conservatives mostly hear the climate message through the progressive media, which is guilty of entrenching the class divide.
If we want conservatives to take notice of climate change and to become advocates for change, and we do, we need to break down the divides and build constructive relationships.
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scaddenp at 13:40 PM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
I think "zero-carbon" is likely to mean "zero net carbon". You have various options for carbon sequestration from direct capture at steel smelter (highly unlikely) to reafforestation, biochar etc. Theoretically you can do steel without coke - just expensive - see here for example. It is also not clear to me whether plastics necessarily releases CO2. You need hydrocarbons for sure, but do you need to combine with O2 in the plastic process? Cement releases CO2 in manufacture, but it also absorbs CO2 and there is work on CO2-neutral cement (over the long term). Mining and transport can electrified theoretically as well, though an electric heavy digger is long way off I think. You could however also use biodeisel for applications where electric motors really dont cut it. I think it is important to realise that you dont have to be zero-carbon to starve off "disaster" (a highly subjective term)- killing coal may be enough by itself, and if not electrification of private transport as well is almost certainly enough. Anything that reduces rate of emission growth will also reduce the rate of heating and it is rate that is crucial in terms in impacts.
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Terry11 at 12:39 PM on 8 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Bob Loblaw:
Thank you for the info regarding links Bob.
Regarding Mr. Tom Harris' position at Carleton U, you can rest assured that your alma mater did not at any time have him teaching as a professor. He himself stated that he was a "sessional lecturer". He isn't anywhere close to having the academic qualifications required to be a professor which I mentioned in an earlier post. He has an MA in engineering. The funny thing about Tom is, he doesn't correct anyone who accidently gives him a title that he is not entitled to, including the title "Dr.". His only experience lecturing at a university was that short stint at Carleton, which he was unceremoniously removed from. Some of the climate denier groups have been guilty of portraying Tom as something more than he really is, which may be where some of the confusion stems from.
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Digby Scorgie at 12:15 PM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Jim, Michael and Scaddenp
Listen guys, don't confuse me! I asked a hypothetical question. Is it possible in a hypothetical zero-carbon economy to manufacture such an animal as an EV? I'm curious because I hear that humanity should have transitioned to a zero-carbon economy by the year 2050 if we're to avoid a climate catastrophe.
All right, so does "zero-carbon" mean what it says? From Michael the answer seems to be "yes" ("All currently manufactured products can be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy"). From Jim and scaddenp the answer seems to be "no" ("manufacturing some products will never be completely carbon-free"). I assume that the necessary mining and transport of parts and materials is included in "manufacturing".
I'm sorry if I seem obtuse. Also, my curiosity is moot, because we'll never get the world economy anywhere near carbon-free before disaster strikes, which in turn will render notions of manufacturing EVs moot as well. Um, I probably have to apologize for my pessimism as well!
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Terry11 at 12:02 PM on 8 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Tom Curtis:
Regarding Tom Harris being listed as a prof on the "rate your professor" website...anyone can add a name as a professor on that site and then rate them. It is very possible that a student was mistaken about Tom Harris' ranking at Carleton Uinversity and then added him as a prof. Other students would follow suit and rate him also. Tom Harris himself said he was a sessional lecturer. To end all arguments on this subject, Mr. Harris isn't academically qualified to be a professor...not even close.
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rocketeer at 10:47 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
Best of luck. Sounds like a great fit.
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Paul W at 10:44 AM on 8 September 2016Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds
Nigelj @18 I have spent a good deal of my youth as part of various movements that were about changing the direction that society was headed. I found it a great deal of fun and very rewarding. Many efforts were very successful. While stress does need to be thought about as an issue it does not prevent working for change. Its a marvelous thing to do with people.
I use to do workshops for activists to help each person find their way to a life that worked for them and reduced stress to a minimium while doing the organising tasked that they cared about. Basially one provides the listening resource while the person works out their issues.
When I finally stop working for money and retire my plan is to join such movements again for the fun of it. The people and the sense of acumplishment are what life it all about from my point of view. What better way to spend ones last parts of life than to be part of making a future that's worth heading towards.
If getup can get rid of 7 fossil fuel entrenched blockers at the last federal election with targeted campaigns then its only a matter of time till the right wing extreme fossils are removed. By the way if there were left wing fossils that neeeded removal from power I'd enjoy that party also.
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Eclectic at 09:59 AM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Michael Sweet @9 , certainly there are many people who have little knowledge or interest in matters of Climate Change. And it is shameful that the subject of AGW receives far less public education than (for instance) the dangers of cigarette smoking.
But if you read between the lines of Art Vandelay's @7 comments, you will see that his [dogwhistle phrase] "gravely skeptical" friends are the sort who are actively resistant to acceptance of scientific facts.
For the reasons that OnePlanetOF gives - and for other reasons too - these friends are a lost cause. They are beyond the reach of any rational AGW discussion, which Art Vandelay might care to give. It is how they have chosen to be.
As Nigelj @11 says, they have made an emotion-based decision to reject the scientific evidence. They may well be intelligent, but clearly they are not using their intelligence rationally. Art Vandelay can't influence them, even if he wanted to.
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nigelj at 08:57 AM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Eclectic @8
I broadly agree. We shouldn't call people demeaning names even if you privately feel they are a bit thick.
However not all climate sceptics are morons. Many are highly intelligent. We are all sceptics about something.
So the question is why are intelligent people sometimes climate sceptics? Obviously some have very large vested interests in the fossil fuel industry.
Others have clearly been persuaded by the extreme neoliberal laissez faire capitalism philosophy that creates a theoretical basis that attempts to justify their greed or short term interests, and which opposes government controls on acceptable behaviour. However the evidence suggests laissez faire capitalism without appropriate constraints is highly unstable and certainly exacerbates poverty at the lower end of society. The deregulated finance industry played a big part in the global financial crash for example.
As we have seen conservative leaning people seem more sceptical of climate science than liberals. I think this is because at least some conservatives like stability and hold onto very fixed positions. You see this with opposition to abortion, homosexuality being inherently "bad" and all sorts of social bottom lines. They have added climate science scepticism to their list of non negotiable bottom lines, and any scientific evidence that gets in the way is dismissed as flawed, or a lying conspiracy. It's all a search for fixed principles in a world that science is showing to be anything but fixed.
In no way am I suggesting conservative world views are unworthy or inferior to liberal views. Millions of years of evolution have produced both conservative and liberal views, so they probably both serve some positive purpose. However it's hard to see anything good coming from hiding from the scientific evidence.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:35 AM on 8 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Terry11:
Inserting links is a bit counter-intuitive here. Although there is a nice little chain link on the "Insert" tab, nowhere does it explain that you have to select some text first before the chain icon becomes active. The steps are:
- Select the text you want to appear in front of the link. (This can be another copy of the link itself, if you want, but it doesn't have to be. See the links in my comment # 47.)
- Click on Insert, then the little chain icon (the intact chain link - the broken one is for undoing links.)
- Fill in the dialog box with the URL.
- Change the drop-down box if you want the link to open in a new window.
- Click "Insert" to close the dialog box. (It is left to the reader to imagine what clicking on the "Cancel" button does.)
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Bob Loblaw at 08:28 AM on 8 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Michael:
That seems to illustrate another difference in terminology between Canada and the U.S. In Canada, the label "adjunct professor" is typically applied to people with full-time jobs in research elsewhere, who establish a collaboration with a department at a university - often with one or two individual "real" professors in that department. They share research projects, participate in graduate student supervision, perhaps grant applications, etc. An adjunct professor rarely teaches anything, and I'm pretty sure they don't get paid anything.
To become an adjunct professor, one must have a sponsor within the department who will support the bid, and the department (and maybe the Faculty or the Research office) will review the application to see if it is in the interest of the university. The appointment may be term-limited, in which case you have to reconsider after a few years. At least, that is the way it was when I was a lowly assistant professor 25 years ago.
It is remotely possible that Tom Harris might have been an adjunct at one time, but he is not now on Carleton U's Dept. of Earth Science list of adjuncts. Tim Patterson is still included on their list of faculty members. [If Tom Harris was an adjunct, all I can say is "shame on my alma mater".)
Wandering around over there, I notice that they also have a list of "contract instructors". The word "professor" appears twice on that page: in the link to the "Adjunct Professors" page, and a link to "Distinguished Research Professor". They certainly don't seem to advertise the possibility that contract instructors are professors of any kind.
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Terry11 at 08:08 AM on 8 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
...with all due respect to the moderator,
after I postEd a comment regarding Tom Harris being incorrectly labelled as a "professor", the moderator posted underneath that a professor "just means any university teacher". This is absolutely not true. There are several ranks regarding the positions teachers hold in Canadian universities and "professor" is the highest. The same can be said for those in the U.S. Professors have worked hard to deserve this rank and the rank of professor acknowledges that fact. This known fact can easily found by a simple google search for those who aren't sure. Here are just two from Wikipedia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_ranks_in_Canada
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_ranks_in_the_United_States
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link. Please learn to do this yourself with link tool in the comment editor. Also note other comments on this subject.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:59 AM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
rik@20
It makes sense that the range would be for less than the full battery capacity. My hybrid never allows the battery to go below a certain minimum charge level. The same is probably true for an EV battery.
Your location and the temperatures you have been driving in would result in the best EV efficiency. The Tesla range tool on the website I linked to in my previous post shows that the Tesla S range increases slightly in weather warmer than 10 C, even with the AC on.
However, you are likely to see a signicant reduction of EV performance when it gets cold enough to need the heater. In Alberta an EV would be in colder weather at least half of the year.
Another advantage of a hybrid that I did not mention is that as the battery capacity degrades an EV experiences all the lost capacity as range reduction. A hybrid would only experience limits to the maximum that can be generated and stored on a long downhill. However, unlike an EV the hybrid cannot be left plugged in and it is required to be run at least every 6 months to maintain minimum battery power. A hybrid left too long can have a major repair bill to get it operating again (you can't just boost power back into the lithium ion battery and have everything be fine).
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John McKeon at 07:21 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
So pleased to have grabbed the chance to meet you in person. Best wishes.
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scaddenp at 07:13 AM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
I'm with Jim. Making steel without coke is difficult and expensive. However, if that was the only thing we used coal for, we wouldnt have a problem. You would make an enormous difference to GHG emissions if you could just dump coal for electricity generation. This has to be the number 1 priority.
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rik13762 at 05:32 AM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
One planet @12
No magic touch
I live in Belgium, temperatures are not extreme here (and I started driving in March). On a highway I rarely drive faster than 100 km/h, but I frequently need the airo.
Don't forget, you can in reality not use all the 30 kWh of a 30 kWh battery (don't ask me why)
In reality: maximum performance 200 km with 26 kWh battery = 13 kWh/100 km
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John Hartz at 03:35 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
Onward and upward!
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Jim Eager at 03:24 AM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Michael, I don't disagree, I was trying to get Digby to recognise that there is nothing special about the manufacture of EVs. Steel is steel, glass is glass, rubber is rubber, plastic is plastic, whether it is part of an ICE or EV vehicle. The only difference is the lithium mined and refined for their batteries, but that is offset by their not needing a lifetime supply of fuel, engine lubricating oil, transmission fluid and antifreeze.
That said, manufacturing some products will never be completely carbon free. Carbon is necessary for the smelting of iron ore and production of steel, even in an electric furnace. CO2 is a byproduct of making Portland cement, even in plants using electric kilns. Plastics will continue to require petroleum and natural gas feed stocks. But it's not the manufacture of those materials that generates the lion's share of CO2 emissions, it's transportation, electrical generation and space heating that are, and EVs directly address one of those.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:58 AM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Eclectic@8,
I agree, but would say that many "deniers" are deliberately and knowingly dismissive of information and understanding that is contrary to their personally preferred beliefs, desires and hopes to get away with what they can actually understand are unacceptable things to try to get away with.
The deliberate dismissers are not likely to change their minds in 20 years. They will continue to push for the ability to get away with obtaining more undeserved personal benefit for as long as possible. That is the type of people they choose to be.
The growing problems faced by humanity today are the result of the success of pursuers of their personal short-term interests getting away with developing popular support for pursuits that could have been understood to be damaging and unsustainable (actions a few would benefit from without ever really facing the likely damaging consequences... In business that is called mitigating risk and it is focused on mitigating the personal risk to the wealthiest and most powerful, not protecting the general population or future generations or even the consumers that are relied on to support the pursuit).
Tragically, many mechanisms to review the acceptability of pursuits of profit allow unacceptable actions to have their potential perceptions of popularity and profitability be "balanced" with any understanding of their unacceptability or unsustainability (and many are rigged to ensure the perceptions are highlighted while any potentially contrary understanding is restricted). That is an absurd way to determine acceptability, especially if the advancement of humanity to a lasting constantly improved future for all is the objective. But is very common, including the way that future costs of climate change are discounted for comparison to the evaluated lost opportunity if climate change impacts are actually effectively reduced.
There really is no other beneficial, moral, ethical or valuable purpose to a life than helping with the advancement of all humanity to a lasting better future. There can definitely be other desires but the results of pursuits of other desires can be personal self-interest, and such desires need to be monitored and restricted to ensure that they are not detrimental to the advancement of humanity (those who are unwilling to self-monitor and self-restrict clearly need to be "helped...with a tough love approach if necessary").
A key argument used by deliberate dismissers against having to accept the reality of the unacceptability of benefiting from burning fossil fuels is that "They and others" would not be able to live as well as they have developed a taste to live if they are unable to continue to get away with it, or if it is made to be a more expensive way to do things. They declare they will behave better if someone else makes it cheaper and easier for them to enjoy their life in another way. The reality is that getting away with the least acceptable way of doing something will always be "Cheaper and Easier". That needs to change if truly sustainable transportation technology is to be developed.
Free Market Capitalism clearly can not be expected to bring about that required change or development. Only rational considerate leadership willing to disappoint and correct the deliberate dismissers of climate change due to fossil fuel burning, and so many other damaging unsustainable developed popular and profitable activities, can bring about the required change. And when elected popular leaders will not do that then others, like the teams that drive the likes of sKs and civil protest groups, have to make it more difficult for leaders to "do the potentially easier job of unLeading Pursuits of Personal Interest rather than the likely more difficult job of Leading the Advancement of Humanity".
That is the fundamental flaw of the popularity and profitability competition of Free Market Capitalism. The ones willing and able to get away with the worst behaviour have a clear competetive advantage. Raising awareness and improving the understanding of the unacceptability of "some specific self-interested people" can help restrict what is allowed to compete in the Free Market to actions that are understood to be part of a lasting better future for all of humanity into the far far future, on this or any other planet. But that action will not change the minds of those who have made-up their minds to desire to believe something else (something of self-interest), it will only restrict the freedom of such people to do what they would prefer to do, likely making them angry.
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RedBaron at 02:42 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
Welcome John Cook!
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michael sweet at 02:38 AM on 8 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Eclectic,
I have found that many people are unaware that warming has been so well documented. Art could mention to them that the last three years have been the hottest on record. He could remind them that the last foot of any coastal flood was caused by sea level rise. Heavy rains are enhanced by AGW. Most people do not discuss AGW at all in their lives. If you mention facts enough time eventually it might sink in that there are problems now with AGW. No need to harp on the subject if htey do not wnat to hear it.
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michael sweet at 02:34 AM on 8 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Jim and Digbyu,
Mark Jacobson and the Solutions Project have documented how 100% of all energy: electrical, transportation and industrial, can be generated using renewable energy (primarily wind, solar and hydro). All currently manufactured products can be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy.
Iceland currently generates an excess of electricity using geothermal. They use the excess electricity to manufacture aluminum, which they export. They could manufacture whatever they wanted to, but they make the most money from aluminum. As renewable energy gains more market penetration the carbon content of products will decrease.
Renewable energy only became cost effective in the last five years or so. You cannot expect 100% conversion instantly, it takes time to build out a new energy system. Now that renewables are the cheapest source of new energy, more and more will be built. If a carbon fee is implemented the switch over will be faster. Jacobson has demonstrated that the entire economy can be run off renewables. The question is: can the political will be found to implement this solution before critical damage has been done to the Earth system?
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Jeff T at 02:01 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
Welcome to the States, John. I'm sure you will do well.
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Tom Curtis at 02:00 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
Congratulations, John.
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andreas_s at 01:55 AM on 8 September 2016Researching climate change communication at George Mason University
i wish you all the best
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Jim Eager at 22:39 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Digby, you might as well ask if anything can still be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy.
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Eclectic at 22:36 PM on 7 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
Art Vandelay @7 , you can certainly think of these "gravely skeptical" friends as deniers, morons, and conspiracy theorists - because that is exactly what they are.
But you are right, to resist calling them that (to their face). Like the Flat Earthers, they have already decided on their "position" - and no amount of factual evidence will make them change their position. Don't even try to encourage them to a re-evaluation : since you will be completely wasting your time.
They are not "skeptical" of the evidence - they are determinedly dismissive of the mountain of evidence which is right in front of them. They won't listen to you, or to anyone. If their minds were open to rational re-evaluation of the climate realities, then they would have ceased their denialism long ago.
If you wish to discuss the many interesting (and grave) aspects of modern-day global warming, then you would be best restricting such conversation to friends who have a genuine scientific way of thinking about the world.
With "denier" friends, keep the conversation to football. And don't even mention the weather !!! They will eventually have to change their minds, but it sounds like they are stubborn enough to hold out for 20 years - until the day comes when they will suddenly "re-invent history" and declare that they had never really doubted all the climate scientists : and that your memory is faulty !
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Digby Scorgie at 20:20 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
I think a light has gone on! I'm not interested in comparing EVs versus petrol- and diesel-fuelled vehicles, I'm interested in knowing if EVs can still be manufactured in a zero-carbon economy. Does anybody have a definitive answer?
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michael sweet at 20:01 PM on 7 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
In the USA many college level teachers are part-timers called adjunct faculty. (I am adjunct at a local community college, adjuncts are also common at local 4 year colleges). Adjuncts are at the bottom of the feeding scale at colleges. It is not unusual for more than 25% of the classes to be taught by adjuncts. All the students call me professor and I doubt that they know who is adjunct and who is full time. Harris was probably hired as an adjunct professor. The system is very exploitative, adjuncts can only support themselves if they have an alternate full time jos (I teach at a local high school). I know several people who are trying to survive on adjunct pay and it is very much a struggle for them.
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JARWillis at 18:21 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
We use our VW e-up! for all journeys up to about 65 miles round trip (giving us a safe margin and no range problems in 2 years and 9,000 miles).
An advantage of the VW EV models is that they can charge from an ordinary domestic power point - drawing about 2.2 KW (adding about 8 miles range per hour of charging). During daylight hours in the (English) summer our solar panels often produce more than this, and since it is easy to choose when we charge we are literally running on sunshine for much of the time.
The good feeling this gives us is worth a great deal, adding to the sheer delight of driving this lovely little vehicle. (Motoring Which's 1916 Best Buy City Car - although we are semi-rural).
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Tom Curtis at 17:36 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
ubrew12 @13, he certainly has an interesting map:
However, the Australian government's Green Vehicle Guide gives different figures, with following Fuel life cycle values for all electrical vehicles:
BMWi3 121g/km
Mitsubishi iMiEV 127 g/km
Renault Kango ZE 146 g/km
Nissan Leaf 163 g/km
Tesla Model S 174-186 g/km
Holden (GM) Volt 127 g/km
All of these are substantially lower than the 222 g/gm shown in his map. That may be because his data is at least three years old (based on comments), and the mix of grid electricity sources has changed, or because the Australian government allows for domestic solar in the mix (which he excludes), or because his estimates of charge used per kilometer driven are too high.
For what it is worth, the figure above are comparable to the most efficient petrol driven vehicles, and inferior to hybrids.
That being said, in Queensland it is possible to purchase 100% renewable energy from the grid at a surcharge. Using that option, your electrical vehicle will return Fuel life cycle values far better than even hybrids, and still cost less for a charge than it does to fill up a tank. Unfortunately they will not return 0 g/km as the "renewable" energy includes energy from waste disposal incinerators. Given that, the best option for urban driving in Australia is to purchase a fully electric vehicle and tailor your electricity plan. That not only gives you the lowest fuel life cycle efficiency, but creates a positive economic incentive to increase renewable sources. At the same time, it helps bring down the cost of electrical vehicles.
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ubrew12 at 13:58 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
I sorta trust this guy, who says if your grid power is coal-heavy (China, India, Australia, S Africa) your electric car is getting 25-30 mpg (us) if it were a gasoline engine, and in UK, Germany, Japan, and Italy more like 45-50 mpg (us). In low carbon economies, like France, Brazil, Switzerland, and Norway, more like 100 mpg (us). In Colorado, 30mpg, while in Caifornia, 70 mpg. This seems similar to calcs by OnePlanet@1. So, the advantage as economies (hopefully) decarbonize is apparent, along with the electric grid storage advantage noted by Dunkerson@5.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:35 PM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
ric@10.
You may have a magic touch with your Leaf, or are just not driving fast and never drive in cold weather.
According to the latest promotional material from Nissan Canada the maximum performance expected is up to 172 km with the 30 kWh battery = 17.5 kWh/100 km (that would be performance without needing heat or air conditioning with minimal acceleration during the trip and a reasonably low speed).
However, I have just seen that the latest Tesla website indicates longer ranges for their Tesla S than previous years (the Tesla sites previously showed that 18 kWh/100 km was the best expected performance). It indicates performance as good as 11.0 kWh/100 km for their cars at 70 km/h at 20 C and warmer (not running the heat or air). At 70 km/h but -10 C with heat on the performance drops to 15.5 kWh/ 100 km. At 100 km/k and -10C the performance drops to 20 kWh/100 km. And here in Alberta we can drive 110 km/h (legally 110 and many people choose to drive closer to 120). At 110 km/h and 20 C the Tesla will do 19 kWh/100 km. At 110 km/h and -10 C the Tesla S will do 22 kWh/100km.
And here is a reality check. In Alberta (and many other places) the winters are often colder than -10 C (In Alberta every winter is almost certain to have several days where the daytime high is colder than -20 C), temperatures that Tesla has not included on their website feature.
So you could be getting 12.5 kWh/100 km as long as you never drive faster than 80 km/h (never go on a highway trip or use a freeway), and never use the heater, and your Nissan Leaf is as aerodynamic and technically efficient as a Tesla S.
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Art Vandelay at 13:31 PM on 7 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
I have many friends who are gravely sceptical of the global warming hypothesis. however, I resist from lebelling them "deniers", "morons", "conspiracy theorists" etc, because in my experience that's more likely to cement their denial position in the long term, than it is to encourage a reevaluation.
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Bob Loblaw at 13:11 PM on 7 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Tom Curtis:
It may be common in colloquial usage, but the definitions I use are typical of life in academia in Canada - albeit based on my own personal knowledge from 20 years ago when I was active in the system.
If you look at the job postings linked at the Canadian Association of University Teachers web page, you'll see that tenure-track or tenure-stream positions mention "professor" (usually assistant) or "faculty", while other postings may mention "instructor" or "lecturer" positions. I didn't read every ad, but I was hard-pressed to find one that used "professor" that wasn't tenure-track.
In the department I was in, sessionals and instructors did not participate in the department's faculty meetings, and did not have any of the obligations of committee work, student supervision, etc. that were expected of "professors".
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Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
In the sea of misery brought on by these studies one comforting eddy of thought is that eventually it will turn around, eventually the climate science will be widely accepted and more and more, strong action will be taken. There are so many examples of where society has changed including slavery, women’s right to vote and views on race and smoking. Last night on the news (Australia) there was an item on a woman who chained herself in the House of Commons in 1907 protesting for the right to vote. She was sent to jail for a month, but now there is a plaque to honour the event. While being much more complicated, our response to Climate Change is another example of societal change that will happen.
Climate change is an aspect of the exponential growth that is happening globally in so many areas. Another comforting thought is the exponential disruption that is happening with renewable energy and electric (and hydrogen?) cars. The societal change and the technology change go hand in hand and reinforce each other. So even though the US is going slightly backward in these studies the media and fossil fuel companies promoting denial are trying to hold back the tide (with sea level rise behind it) and it will become futile. And at some point in the future we will look back at the climate activists of today in praise and thanks like we do the woman in the House of Commons.
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Tom Curtis at 12:12 PM on 7 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Bob Loblaw @42, Harris is referred to as a professor in the rate your professor website, and in the Canadian magazine, MacLean's. I would say, therefore, it is quite open under Canadian usage to refer to him as such. That is, referring to Professor Harris is not an error. Neither, however, is it mandatory under Canadian usage, given that the CASS report does not directly refer to him as such (although it does contain a quotation referring to him as a professor).
To the moderator: The link to the CASS report in the first sentence of the OP is now dead. The report can currently be found here:
http://junkscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/cassreportclimatechangedenialintheclassroom.pdf
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Digby Scorgie at 11:37 AM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Jim Eager @8
I have no idea what emissions are involved in the manufacture of any car, let alone an EV. I was just curious about the piece I read concerning embodied emissions. You say it's a red herring. Is that because manufacturer's are able to transition to zero-carbon methods of manufacture? I can imagine that should be possible to a certain extent. I'm not sure, however, about mining of materials and transport of parts by sea, for example. To put it another way, I don't understand what's going on and would appreciate enlightenment!
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Bob Loblaw at 10:35 AM on 7 September 2016Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Moderator:
No, I'd go with Terry11's statement that Harris was never a professor. Canada may differ from the U.S. - in Canada, the title "professor" is usually reserved for people that have been hired as full-time employees of the university, and generally into tenure-track positions. There are usually three stages:
- Assistant professor. New, young recruits, not (yet) tenured.
- Associate professor. A promotion usually coincident with getting tenure. Typically takes 5-6 years.
- Professor (or "Full professor"). Another promotion after a period as associate professor, based on distinguished research performance. [Teaching only matters at smaller universities...] Some professors never reach this stage.
Outside of the tenure-track system, you can get sessional lecturers. They can be hired as full-time staff (usually in the form of a sabbatical replacement), or on a per-course basis. The expectation is teaching, not research. Young academics may get stuck in the sessional loop for a few years, waiting for tenure-track positions to open up - and can't advance their research careers due to the teaching demands, which makes them less competitive compared to fresh meat recent PhD graduates.
Harris was a sessional lecturer, replacing Tim Patterson (who was a professor).
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Tom Curtis at 10:13 AM on 7 September 2016Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans
Prof X @276 fails to provide his reference for his claim of deep Earth degassing of CO2 of approx 600 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, and nor is a recent discussion of global geophysical degassing rates evidents from Burton's list of publications. In any event, the 600 million tonnes figure is a reduction from Burton's prior estimate (2013) of 937 million tonnes of CO2 per annum from all deep sources, discussed by me @256 (July, 2014) above. If Burton indeed has a new estimate of approx 600 million tonnes, that would be a reduction from his prior estimate, which would spoil Prof X's narrative.
To add slight confusion, Burton does have a 2014 conference paper which estimates a global flux of 1,800 million tonnes of CO2 based on new measurements of CO2 flux (still only 5% of anthropogenic emissions), but that estimate does not appear to have made it into a journal article. Further, as more recent direct measurements of CO2 flux from a volcano contradict the claims heightened flux from Burton's indirect measurements, the premise of the 2014 conference paper estimate appears to have been falsified.
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nigelj at 08:22 AM on 7 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
I meant to say conservatives are more sceptical of climate change science than liberals. Must proof read.
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nigelj at 08:18 AM on 7 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
So we have this situation where conservatives are more sceptical of climate science than republicans. We should note America as a whole also appears to be more sceptical of climate change science than other countries.
This is a complex equation with many likely contributing factors starting with vested interests in fossil fuels of course. America is a land that worships individual rights and corporate rights above community rights, so people may see fossil fuel companies as being somewhat beyond reproach and owning a large gas guzzler as a right. Conservatives may feel this more strongly than liberals.
We have psychological reasons for climate scepticism such as cognitive bias and feeling that one’s world view is under threat. Conservatives crave stability (not a bad trait) but something like global warming threatens this on many levels so perhaps they go into denial.
Conservatives tend to distrust big government, and government rules. Again some of this is healthy to a point, but some things can only be fixed with government rules, climate change being one of them. Sometimes markets don’t provide all the answers, and this complex issue has to be faced.
Conservatives also follow authority, and will therefore be closely following what leaders in their Party promote. Liberals are more anti authoritarian. If the leaders of the Republican Party are climate denialists, others will follow, so lobbyists target these leaders and congress people.
The media play a part. For some reason the right wing media are often climate denialists and also very inflammatory, emotive, and outspoken. This gets an audience because people are attracted to inflammatory statements. Rush Limbaugh comes to mind. This may be partly driven by right wing attitudes, and partly by a desire to simply get ratings and lift profitability. The Liberal media seems slightly more low key, and measured in its style, for whatever reason.
And of course conservatives own plenty of the media and ownership is control. They seem to feel balance and scientific data comes second to promoting ideological positions.
However much of all this is becoming more entrenched, and it’s hard to see how it will change.
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nigelj at 07:41 AM on 7 September 2016Americans Now More Politically Polarized On Climate Change Than Ever Before, Analysis Finds
Digby Scorgie @ 17
I have reached similar conclusions. I used to stress a lot over denialist rhetoric, however I do this less now. It's not good for the blood pressure.
However I take an interest as a semi retired guy, and I loathe misleading denialist comments and enjoy responding to these and debating the issues. It's healthy to do this as long as you keep it all in perspective.
Even though we broadly know what needs to be done to keep warming at low levels, getting the world organised to do this is a huge task, and it may be impossible politically. So its not worth bursting a blood vessell in worry.
I think it would require something dramatic like total collapse of a large part of Antracticas ice sheets or an entire decade of massive temperature records dwarfing last years. Even this might not be enough. You cant save the world from its own stupidity.
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rik13762 at 04:34 AM on 7 September 2016Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs
Electric vehicle efficiency ranges from 20 to 25 kWh/100 km?
I'm driving a Nissan Leaf since february:12,5 kWh/100 km
In Augustus my solar panels produced enough for 5000 km
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ubrew12 at 04:04 AM on 7 September 2016Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization
I would have thought climate acceptance would be as inexorable as, well, sea level rise. This result shows how a self-reinforcing system of belief can be purchased by deep-pockets. Also, why those pockets would 'go dark' so as not to be revealed. Recently, it was found that Senators in America who voted against an amendment to a bill that read 'climate change is real and human activity significantly contributes to climate change' were receiving five times as much as Senators who voted for that amendment in fossil fuel contributions. Here: compelling evidence that money is paying for what Republicans believe in America. Yet, more remarkable, this clear evidence of betrayal got zero play-time in our Mass Media. I suspect the kind of money Big Fossils can throw at denial means it can aim 'thirty pieces of silver' at everybody. All Nature can throw in response is six feet of sea level rise. So for Science believers, we're in purgatory, stuck between a fossil rock and an ocean hard-place.
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