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Rob Honeycutt at 00:31 AM on 19 February 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - January 2016
Here's the same chart with a 5mo lag. The peak seems right but before and after just don't seem to fit. The numbers jump around at the peak, so who's to say exactly where that peak actually is? The 6 month lag seems (to my eyechrometer) a better overall fit.
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Rob Honeycutt at 23:23 PM on 18 February 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - January 2016
Barry... Yup. I thought the same thing and tried it. It's not as good a fit. I've always heard the 6 month figure quoted, and I initially questioned it. But working with this graph has caused me to accept that as the correct figure.
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Kriss at 21:59 PM on 18 February 2016Antarctica is gaining ice
Awesome blog. I enjoyed reading your articles. This is truly a great read for me. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work!
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Glenn Tamblyn at 20:49 PM on 18 February 2016It's the sun
RockfordFile
I just skimmed the first 20 or so papers. Most seemed to be straight science on details of climate. A focus on sun climate links at regional scales, high atlantic/arctic/greenland patterns, solar impacts on the stratosphere, projections of past and future solar activity etc. or simply exploring things like variability of the Indian Monsoon. Nothing challenging the basics of CO2's role, just exploring subordinate mechanisms.Except for 3 red flags:
- The Soon and Connelly's paper,
- One from Adelaide University :-( concluding "This heating then explains why the earth’s temperature record so closely tracks solar flare counts. Fundamentally then it is implied that the Earth’s climate is controlled by a non-conservation of energy process." - WTF!
- A withdrawn paper. Claiming that Surface Air Temperatures for rocky planets can be predicted from just Top of Atmosphere Insolation and surface air pressure.
So broadly, standard detailed, regional mechanism, climate research. Not extraordinary or paradigm changing. Just the obvious that not all the details of the science is settled. Which of course it isn't.
Again a giant version of the 'the science is settled' strawman argument.But too detailed to try and rebut in depth.
Moderator Response:Welcome to SkS.
If you are interested in discussing this further the 'the science isn't settled' thread is the appropriate location. Others will follow you there.
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Tom Curtis at 17:16 PM on 18 February 2016Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
cdbenny @110, here is a graph of radiation intensity of a 'black body' (in this case a bolt of ligtning):
As the graph shows, Wien's Displacement Law determines the temperature of a black body from the wavelength of peak radiation, or the wavelength of peak radiation for the the black body radiation at a given temperature. It does not tell you the radiation intensity at that or any other point on the curve. That is determined by Planck's Law. Nor does it tell you the total radiation emitted (ie, the area under the curve). That is determined by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law.
Gases are not black bodies. They do not radiate at every wavelength. Rather, they radiate at specific wavelengths determined by the nature of their chemical bonds (at medium and long wavelengths) and the atomic structure of their components (at short wavelengths). They absorb radiant energy only at the wavelengths at which they would radiate if hot enough. The result is a unique emission spectrum for every gas, as illustrated below:
Here are the absorptivities (and hence emissivities, by Kirchoff's Law) of a variety of gases across a range of frequencies relavent to atmospheric processes:
Returning to Planck's Law, it tells us that as the temperature of a black body increases, the intensity of the radiation from that black body increases at every wavelength. This can be seen in the graph below.
If a gas is hot enough to radiate, it will radiate at a given wavelength at an intensity given by the black body intensity at that wavelength (as determined by Planck's Law) multiplied by the emissivity at that wavelength (as shown in the chart above). That means the wavelength of peak emission may not coincide with either the wavelength of peak emission of a black body (as shown by Wien's Law) or the wavelength of peak emissivity. Instead it is both a function of the intensity of black body at each wavelength and emissivity at each wavelength. Thus even though the emissivity of CO2 at aproximately 2.5 and 4 micrometers is just as great as that at 15 micrometers, at normal Earth temperatures radiation from those wavelengths is inconsequential, while that at 15 micrometers dominates.
Where the Earth's atmosphere warmer than 15000 K, so that the peak blackbody radiation occured at wavelengths of approximately 2 micrometers, far more energy emitted from CO2 would come from the 2.4 and 4 micrometer bands than the 15 micrometer bands. Fortunately for us, the atmosphere is much cooler than that and the 15 micrometer band dominates, but the only significance Wien's Displacement Law has with regard to that fact is that the peak radiation for atmospheric temperatures occurs around 20 micrometers, not around 5 micrometers.
Combining these facts together, the fact that the wavelength of peak emission for CO2 coincides with the wavelength of peak radiation for a black body at 193 K is pure coincidence, and tells us nothing about the intensity of the radiation of CO2. This is clearly demonstrated by the back radiation from Barrow (on the north coast of Alaska) and Nauru, as shown below. The radiation intensity at 15 micrometers is from CO2. It is far more intense from the warmer Nauru than it is from Barrow. In both, in fact at 15 micrometers it approximately coincides black body curve for the surface temperature at the location. In Nauru, on the 15th of November, 1998, it readiates at a black body temperature of 300K at 15 micrometers, whereas at Barrow on the 10th of March, 1999, it radiates at a black body temperature of slightly less than 245 K at 15 micrometers (due to a temperature inversion).
In sum, the idea that CO2 radiation is "very, very low energy" because of the wavelength of its primary radiation is shere nonsense. At best it reflects abysmal ignorance for which there cannot be any possible further excuse.
Further, while it is true that all molecules in the atmosphere radiate at 288K, the intensity of radiation of all but the greenhouse gases is inconsequential relative to that of CO2 at that temperature, even allowing for relative abundances. Further, the radiation at 15 micrometers is inconsequential relative to that of CO2 for all atmospheric gases other than H2O. As it happens, because H2O is far more abundant than CO2 at temperate and tropical surface temperatures, and because it absorbes strongly at far more wavelengths, most radiative absorption in the lower atmosphere will be by H2O. That, however, is irrelevant to the greenhouse effect because the energy is transferred to CO2 by collision, and because at high altitudes, CO2 is far more abundant than H2O, and it is the cool temperature of CO2 radiating to space (and hence from high altitudes) that determines the strength of the greenhouse effect.
Moderator Response:[PS]I could be wrong but I suspect cdbenny may think that GHE is largely about warming of gases in atmosphere and missing backradiation to surface. ie see introduction here.
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bozzza at 16:42 PM on 18 February 2016Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009
Snowfall, for me, doesn't seem to prove AGW.
Am I missing something?
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bozzza at 16:33 PM on 18 February 2016DMI show cooling Arctic
Ah, OK: I suppose I am making the general point about document shock making people sick of reading documents properly.
Sorry,.(.. whoah is us!)
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bozzza at 16:30 PM on 18 February 2016DMI show cooling Arctic
Ok, well i am making a general comment about the issue of document shock.
Many diagrams or charts only show a slight result. Some might show more but the point I am making is about getting to the guts of it otherwise the groupthink of democracy will never be convinced enough to vote for action.
This, I suppose, begets the idea of the necessity of responsible leadership.
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RockfordFile at 15:59 PM on 18 February 2016It's the sun
New user here. Just found this link being offered up by a denier running a blog called notrickszone.
http://notrickszone.com/2016/02/16/impossible-to-ignore-in-2015-alone-massive-250-peer-reviewed-scientific-papers-cast-doubt-on-climate-science/
It purports to tout 250 studies from 2015 that deny AGW. Having reviewed these lists from deniers before, I'm uh, skeptical, that many of the studies say what is claimed of them.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 15:00 PM on 18 February 2016Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
cdbenny
"All the molecules in the atm radiate, say at 288K, O2,N2,H2O,CO2,Ar, and would cool at same rate"
Incorrect. Only the GH gases - H2O & CO2 in your list - radiate in the infrared. O2, N2 and Argon can't radiate in the infrared - being symmetrical molecules (or atoms in the case of Argon) they are unable to generate a charge separatrion across the molecule and thus can't support emission or absorption of IR photons.
Radiation by gases is a very different process from radiation by solids or liquids. The main driver of what is going on once absorption has occurred is collisions. Absorbing molecules transfer the energy they have absorbed to other molecules around them through collisions.
And potential emitting molecules are energised to then be able to emit through collisions with non-emitting molecules. -
ryland at 13:49 PM on 18 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
knaugle@4 It's probably better to stay away from grammar etc as it leaves one open to humorous comment. Humerus is the long bone from shoulder to elbow. Although that said, it may well be your use of humerus, of which the funny bone is part, was a clever play on words.
The views on climate change of the current leading candidates for a republican POTUS may well change as the percentage of Republican voters accepting AGW is steadily increasing. It seems probable however that Ted Cruz' comment on the rescue of the exploration ship will hit home because the crew did need to be resued and it is unlikely many voters will pursue the matter beyond that.
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cdbenny at 12:21 PM on 18 February 2016Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
@110: 2nd para., 2nd line; "...and maintain same temp (convection) at any particular elevation (say 1 meter delta).
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cdbenny at 12:14 PM on 18 February 2016Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
Curtis @109: Your last paragraph "...IR absorbed by CO2 can be inconsequential...more important is avg.temp at which the heat stored in CO2 is radiated. That heat can come from collisions with other molecules (convection) and does not need to be specifically absorbed by CO2."
All the molecules in the atm radiate, say at 288K, O2,N2,H2O,CO2,Ar, and would cool at same rate, and maintain same temp (convection). The 'heat stored' in 200ppmv CO2, represented by its heat capacity, is abt 1/4,800th Joules/K compared to the rest of the atm components. So, if IR absorbed by CO2 'can be inconsequential' why is CO2 more-or-less important than the other atm components? (It is understandable that IR absorbed by CO2 can be inconsequential if it is very, very low energy.)
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bozzza at 12:08 PM on 18 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
..a negative feedback mechanism!
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barry1487 at 08:53 AM on 18 February 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - January 2016
Just to confirm, you've offset (drawn back) RSS by 6 months relative to ONI? Looks like it should be 5 months, locking on peak warmth/el Nino. What drew you to choose 6 months? Better overall correlation?
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ubrew12 at 08:16 AM on 18 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
Tamino (article here) has listed evidence that Antarctica's sea ice was much larger in the first half of the 20th century than at present: " These sources indicate considerably greater southern ice extent than at present, a conclusion which is supported by other studies (de la Mare 1997, Nature, 389, 57; Jones 1990, J. Clim., 3, 1193)." He then performs a reconstruction of Antarctic sea ice extent:
Looks like a substantial collapse occurred between 1940 and 1975. Is it possible that by 1975 the sea ice had 'nowhere to go but up'?
Moderator Response:[PS] Image resized in accordance with comments policy.
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ubrew12 at 08:00 AM on 18 February 20162016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
For your readers edification: This article details the distance between what Exxon says about a carbon tax (it supports one) and what the Congressmen Exxon funds are doing about a carbon tax in the U.S. (blocking it at every turn).
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knaugle at 05:31 AM on 18 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
#1
I hate grammer nazis with a passion. That said, the statement that Ted Cruz is "praying" upon the scientific weakness of the USA political right is a rather humerous pun. It highlights the unwillingness of many USA Southern Evangelicals to accept good science at face value. -
gregcharles at 04:42 AM on 18 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
What record shows 14 out of the hottest 16 years have been since 2000? I've asked this before, but never got an answer. I usually follow NASA GISS at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt . Based on its Jan - Dec anomalies, all 15 years of the 21st Century would make the list of the hottest 16 years. 1998 is the one and only 20th Century year on the list, where it tied for the 7th hottest year.
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PhilippeChantreau at 04:14 AM on 18 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Tom Curtis, your link to wikipedia does not clearly explain how the French Academy has not been or is not successful in maintaining standards for the language. Spelling is quite important in French, where mutiple different words can be spelled identically but take different meanings depending on type and position of accents, for instance. This is especially true for verbs, and is of concern regarding semantic. The Academy does produce changes, albeit not at the pace that the populace sometimes would like to see. Those of us who do not struggle with spelling are not bothered by its conservatism. Some minor controversies have been blown out of proportions by the mass media when they have nothing else to talk about. Whereas it is true that phonetic can and should change, I am not opposed to guard against change coming from a generic dumbing down. I find it inapropriate to use the word "tyranny" in these matters. Nobody is suffering much, really...
Now, back on topic before we get slapped by moderation...
Moderator Response:[PS] Indeed, lets not have a grammar/spelling discussion.
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Tom Curtis at 02:43 AM on 18 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
OPOF @5, you have it backwards. American English typically is more conservative than the English of Kent (ie, BBC English) just as Yorkshire English also tends to be conservative. Consequently where American English and "English" English differ, normally it is the language of England that represents the innovation. In this case, 'gass' may be a last remnant of the middle English spelling customs that gave us manne (for man).
As for an impossed tyranny of uniform spelling, that makes no more sense (and will be no more successful) than the French Academy. There are reasons why Chinese characters (at heart pictograms) should not vary over time, while the phonetic alphabet of English should. If it does not, it becomes arbitrary, and no longer a phonetic alphabet at all. We will have thrown away the Phonecian's great and lasting innovation in the pursuit of dogmatism.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:13 AM on 18 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
My careless reliance on automated spell-checking resulted in the obvious gaff of 'will' instead of 'while'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:10 AM on 18 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Digby Scorgie @4,
I would encourage you to discourage the use of 'gasses' as an alternate of 'gases'.
It appears the misuse of the spelling 'gasses' is rampant in the englishy speaking lands that rebelled and wanted to be different from original English (mainly the US, a place that even made up a different spacing between rails for trains just to be different, and comically continues to drag out the use of English weights and measures).
If 'gasses' has a use it clearly is as a verb, along with 'gassed' and 'gassing'.
Used in a sentence "Timmy often gasses a room to gross out others, and is amused (never to become amuzed) by the sound made will gassing and the look on the faces of others after he has gassed."
My basis for declaring that it is inappropriate to use gasses as the plural of gas includes the Scholastic Children's Dictionary 2002 edition which only lists gases as the plural of gas. The hope of that book appears to be to correct an incorrect development in the US.
Other spelling fads of the US rebellious phase should also be 'encouraged to fade away', such as their choice to spell colour as 'color' even though the ending sound of the word is more like fur than for so if they were to be reasonable in their rebellion they would have dropped the 'o' and spelled it 'colur'.
However, rebellious people often are not reasonable or rational. And pointing out that they are 'going through a phase (never to become faze) of irrationality' often angers them. So be careful how you discourage the use of gasses.
As for the evolution of language, the way a word is said and the meaning of a word can indeed change, but its written presentation should be a constant. The Chinese understand how important that is. And even English speaking people can understand the importance of always spelling 'roof' the same way even though it can be said in many ways including the 'phonetically spell-able' versions 'reuf' and 'roove'.
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Jim Hunt at 23:20 PM on 17 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
It may surprise Ted Cruz to discover that a variety of Antarctic sea ice metrics have taken a terrible tumble this (Southern Hemisphere) summer.
Messrs Monckton, Soon and Legates also seem remarkably reluctant to discuss this perhaps surprising turn of events:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/for-life-on-earth-ice-is-not-generally-a-good-thing/ -
bozzza at 16:33 PM on 17 February 2016Checking Ted Cruz's climate science denial howlers
Deliberatley taking science out of context has to be a concern for any serious person appealing for political capital. I would expect this weakness to be prayed upon by way of forcing an extended debate on the matter.
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Mal Adapted at 12:02 PM on 17 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
OPOF:
The greatest threat to humanity is "Misleading Marketing".
OPOF has identified the fundamental reason why AGW is an existential threat. Scientists are constrained to let facts speak for themselves, or they are subject to severe professional sanction. The people who stand to lose the most if the world stops burning fossil carbon are, OTOH, not subject to penalty for misleading the public by the clever use of language. They are willing to pay top dollar for skilled professional disinformers, because it takes money to make money Hence, the doom of the world.
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Tom Curtis at 11:40 AM on 17 February 2016It's the sun
cdbenny @1165, the OP of this thread is about the myth that recent global warming has been primarilly due to increased solar radiation. Your comments have no bearing on that topic. Even the fig leaf that solar radiation is also absorbed by CO2 is shown to be irrelevant in that the intensity of solar radiation in the relevant portions of the spectrum are only 1.4% of the intensity of upward IR radiation from the surface at those same wave lengths.
The final phrase of my preceding post was hyperlinked to the appropriate thread. The link in plain text is
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=3&t=109&&n=1210#116071
I will not address again your silly misunderstanding of Wein's Law.
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michael sweet at 11:28 AM on 17 February 2016New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Sharon,
Sorry for the slow reply. It seems to me that you have found reasonable sources of information. Keep reading new material as much as possible. Information on this topic almost always comes with a slant (including information from me). Unfortunately, Skeptical Science does not post a lot of material on solutions, their objective is to deal with myths about Global Warming.
The Jacobson paper discusses the energy payback time for the manufacture of the materials to generate all power using renewables. Wind generators pay back in less than a year. As more renewable energy is built the remaining turbines (or solar panels) come from renewable energy. This does not appear to me to be a major problem. There are more questions about the total cost and generating backup power on windless nights (the backup power is one of the major costs).
I have seen the article you linked about birds. I accept the experts view that wind generators do not kill many birds. If they build as many turbines as Jacobson plans that will have to be one issue that is carefully monitored. I have heard that newer, taller wind generators (as tall as 700 feet to the rotor) are so tall that most birds fly under them. Migrating birds and raptors might still be an issue. Wind operators have other plans that might help (like stopping turbines when raptors are in the area), we will have to see. We cannot stop such an important build for an issue that is currently not a problem.
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cdbenny at 10:53 AM on 17 February 2016It's the sun
Why off-topic? Doesn't CO2 absorb radiation originating from the sun? Re-radiated from earth? What wave-lengths does CO2 absorb? A number of analyses state "CO2 strongly absorbs IR radiation at 15 micro-meter wavelenght." Review math? do you not know Wein's eqn.: deg.K = 2897/15micro-meter wavelenth = 193deg.K, or neg.80deg.C. (The sun radiates avg.abt 0.5micro-meter, so sun surface avg.abt 2897/0.5 = 5,800deg.K). If CO2 absorbs 15 micro-meter radiation, that is very low energy; where is the energy analysis on CO2 absorbing IR radiation?
Curtis @1164 :where is the 'approp thread' you answered 1163?
Moderator Response:[PS] Try clicking on the link Tom provided and please read an article before deciding to comment on it. You might want to check your understanding of Wein's law in a text book.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:11 AM on 17 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Pardon me, Howard. I didn't intend to initiate such a discussion. However, after consulting my two UK dictionaries (Oxford and Collins), my one US dictionary (Webster's), as well as the latest Fowler's Modern English Usage, I infer an interesting trend:
Both my UK dictionaries are pre-2000. They give "gases" as the plural of the noun and "gasses" as the third-person singular, present tense of the verb. My Webster's is also pre-2000 but gives "gases" as the plural of the noun, with "gasses" as an alternative. Fowler gives only "gases" as the plural of the noun.
From Tom's comment I deduce that the alternative US form "gasses" is beginning to push out "gases" as the plural of the noun. I shall therefore continue to use "gases" but won't complain about others using "gasses" — although you might hear a groan or two from Down Under.
You have my sympathy, Howard, in your struggles with US versus UK English. Good luck!
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howardlee at 05:05 AM on 17 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Digby - I'm a Brit imported into the US, so I'm permanently confused as to which usage belongs on which side of the pond! 2 nations divided by a common language, as George Bernard Shaw said. I have tried to write 'gases' but it just says 'gazes' to me.
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michael sweet at 21:15 PM on 16 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
Tom,
We agree. It frustrates me that scientific posters (where you carry much of the burden) are held to a high standard for claims that AGW causes warming while skeptical posters can make whatever wild claims they want. This happens everywhere.
Necktoppc at 8 claims that the high temperatures in Britian are expected because of the strong El Nino. Why was 1998 so cold when El Nino was the same as 2015? (S)he claims at 2 "This has happened before, and especially before all the noteriety regarding global warming." Has any evidence been presented that this claim is true? A single month in the last decade was rated cold and that cherry pick is offered against the mountain of high temperature records.
Tamino has a new post that last month broke the anomaly record for NASA, set in November 2015. The anomaly is about 0.2 higher than any before November 2015 but according to skeptics, it could still be caused by the El Nino. A local fact checker rated an Obama statement that fish were in the streets of Miami (from sea level rise) as half true because it was actually in a city next to Miami called Miami Beach. Meanwhile Ted Cruz claims it is not getting warmer and is not called on it. Australia shoots the messanger to stop the message.
We need to go beyond these arguments of if AGW is occuring and move on to solutions.
You do a great job here dealing with the skeptics day after day.
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Tom Curtis at 15:03 PM on 16 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
michael sweet @14:
"I have heard it argued that Hansen and Cato only showed that the average temperature over the summer was hot and that single months have a higher variation. I do not think much of those arguments."
You are right to think little of those arguments. They completely ignore the drift in annual values as shown on this adaption of Hansen (2013)'s chart.
Further, they completely ignore the drift in 11 year distributions as shown in the update:
As you can see from that update, there is slight variation in the 11 year distributions that strongly overlap the baseline period, and the first following 11 year period is not so distinct that it requires significant explanation. The two following 11 year periods, however, and the definite trend certainly require explanation (except for NH Dec to Feb). Detailed statistics would show how much they are in need of explanation (ie, how statistically significant they are, or more correctly, what their p value is) and may show the drift shown in the fourth panel is statistically significant. But eyeball mark 1 is sufficient to show something interesting is going on in the rest of the panels (particularly the first).
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Tom Curtis at 14:34 PM on 16 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Digby Scorgie @1:
Merriam-Webster: "plural gas·es also gas·ses"
Collins: "plural gases gasses"
Oxford: "plural gases or chiefly US gasses"
wiktionary: "plural gases or gasses"
Dictionary.com: "plural gases or gasses"
This leaves aside the fact that, in principle, there are no correct or incorrect spellings. Merely common and less common spellings. That is the straightforward application to lexical dialects of the well known definition of a language, ie, "a language is a dialect with an army and a navy".
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Digby Scorgie at 13:44 PM on 16 February 2016This climate scientist has tried really hard to get a date
Is the plural of "gas" not "gases"? I can't understand why so many now spell it "gasses". Mr Moderator, please delete this comment after reading. I don't wish to cause unnecessary embarrassment.
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Tom Curtis at 11:24 AM on 16 February 2016It's the sun
cdbenny @1163, your question of topic on this thread, so I have answered it in a more appropriate thread.
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Tom Curtis at 11:22 AM on 16 February 2016Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
cdbenny elsewhere, using Wein's displacement law (or a convenient calculator) you can indeed determine that the peak intensity of a black body with a temperature of 193 K is 15.1 micrometers. However, using Planck's Law (or a convenient calculator) you will quickly determine that the radiation intensity at any wavelength always increases with increasing temperature. As the point of peak intensity moves to a shorter wavelength, the intensity of the longer wavelengths still increases. Thus, at 193 K, the intensity at 15.1 micrometers is 1.0967 W*m-2*µm-1*sr-1. At 288 K, it is 5.7595 W*m-2*µm-1*sr-1, or 5.25 times more intense. At 6000 K it is 881.53 W*m-2*µm-1*sr-1, or 153 times more intense than at the Global Mean Surface Temperature. This relationship, for temperatures relevant in the atmosphere of Earth, can be seen in the graph below.
6000 K is approximately the Sun's surface temperature. But, of course, although the Sun radiates at 15.1 K far more intensely than at the Earth's surface, the Sun's radiation at the Earth's surface is much diminished. Indeed, at its peak it is diminished by the ratio of the Sun's surface area to the area of a sphere having the radius of the distance of the Earth from the Sun. That is, it is diminished by a factor of 0.00009. Ergo, the incomeing IR radiation from the Sun at the Earth peaks at 1.4% of the intensity of the outgoing radiation from the Earth's surface. (This is important, because if it averaged a the same magnitude, there could be no greenhouse effect.)
The upshot is the 15 micrometer absorption band of CO2 absorbs a significant proportion of the outgoing radiation from the Earth's surface (as can be seen in the diagram above), but an inconsequential amount of the incoming radiation from the Sun.
Further, the actual amount absorbed by CO2 can be inconsequential to the greenhouse effect. What is more important is the average temperature at which the heat stored in the CO2 is radiated. That heat can come from collisions with other molecules and does not need to be specifically absorbed by the CO2 molecule that radiates it (see OP above). Consequently, although CO2 is responsible for 20% of the total greenhouse effect, it probably absorbs less than 20% of IR radiation that is absorbed by the atmosphere.
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cdbenny at 10:04 AM on 16 February 2016It's the sun
For 220 ppmv man-made CO2 in Earth atmosphere, how much real energy does that amount of CO2 absorb from the Sun, or from 15 micro-meter wavelength IR radiated back from the Earth? Doesn't 15 micro-meter IR radiation (that CO2 "strongly absorbs") correspond to a surface radiating at -80 deg.C? (Wein's radiation temp.equation). That would be very, very low energy radiation absorbed by CO2.
Moderator Response:[RH] Before just deleting this comment outright for being off-topic, how about we give you the opportunity to explain why you think this applies to the article you're commenting on? Which is:
"Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions."[PS] And perhaps have poster review their mathematics and understanding how the RTE works - a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial corresponds to 1.1C increase in surface temp before any feedbacks.
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michael sweet at 09:35 AM on 16 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
Tom,
THe statistics are above my grade. On the other hand, the baseline is 1950-1980 which includes a substantial amount of warming from pre-industrial. If you subtract out all that heat I doubt that more than 0.1% 3 sigma remains, even if you only used El Nino years.
I have heard it argued that Hansen and Cato only showed that the average temperature over the summer was hot and that single months have a higher variation. I do not think much of those arguments. The globe is clearly warmer and we have to own up to the damage that we have done.
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Tom Curtis at 06:30 AM on 16 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
michael sweet @12:
"Since 0.1% is the expected rate of 3-sigma temperature, more than 99% of heat waves during the summer could be attributed to AGW."
It is not quite that simple. The statistical distribution in Hansen, Sato and Ruedy (2012) is against a thirty year period (1950-1980). Therefore it represents the probability, with no AGW, of a seasonal distribution of heatwaves over a thirty year period. Within that, it is quite consistent that any given year have an unusually high number of heatwaves, and correspondingly, for some other year to have an unusually low number of heat waves. Ergo, because at least some of the high % of warm areas in 2015 is due to the El Nino, you cannot reason that 99% of heatwaves in 2015 could be attributed to AGW.
If you wanted to determine that attribution from Hansen, Sato and Ruedy's work, you would first need to find the statistical distribution of warm areas in detrended 2015 data. That would determine the area subject to heatwaves in a no AGW case, ie, based on natural variability alone. From that, you could then determine the increase in areas subject to heatwaves due to the trend, which could then be attributed to AGW.
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michael sweet at 02:57 AM on 16 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
Following up on KR's comment above, Hansen and Sato have updated their data. For 2015 21% of the world had 3-sigma or greater temperatures during Jun/Jul/Aug of 2015. Since 0.1% is the expected rate of 3-sigma temperature, more than 99% of heat waves during the summer could be attributed to AGW. Winter temperatures have higher standard deviations but the temperatures are so high now that a significant amount of high winter temperatures can be attributed similarly to AGW. The December England temperatures were so extreme that the likelyhood of similar temperatures without AGW would be very small. (Hansen and Sato only show the JJA data).
Moderator Response:[Rob P] Spatial pattern of extreme temps from Hansen & Sato:
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MA Rodger at 21:34 PM on 15 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
I do wonder if the posted article has suffered a bit from too much editing. Is it correct in the third paragraph to conflate the "exceptional warmth in Britain" during December with the Adam Scaife quote talking of us "experiencing is typical of an early winter El Niño effect"?
December in southern UK was startlingly "exceptional" with the CET December average temperature head and shoulders above anything previous (since 1659). If this were what the Adam Scaife quote referred to, this would be "typical of an early winter El Niño effect," and we should expect December 1997 to show at least signs of being exceptionally warm. But we don't see that. While CET's December 1997 was not a cold December, sitting at =10th warmest in the last 30 years of CET Decembers it's a bit of a stretch to even call it 'warm'.
So I would suggest the Adam Scaife quote was more likely referring to global climate events and not to the UK's warm winter.
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Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
For those who are interested (as opposed to those who from their comments seem to feel that climate isn't changing), Hansen et al 2012 discusses how warming trends 'load the dice' for more and more extreme heat events. Previously 3-sigma outlier heat waves affecting 1% of the globe (using a 1951-1980 baseline) are now affecting 10% of the globe, as they are now less than 2-sigma extremes. What was once rare in terms of a heat wave is becoming more and more common, and events like the UK warm December, while not in and of themselves evidence of change, are exemplars of how observed change is affecting us.
This can also be seen in just the statistics of how often we see temperature extremes, as in Meehl et al 2009 - the ratio of record highs to record lows corrects for number of observations and length of temperature record, and clearly show more and more record highs compared to record lows for the last 40+ years.
I would never claim a single month warm/cold event was by itself evidence of a trend - but we can look at the climate statistics and trends (as opposed to the weather), see how the frequency of those events is changing, and be more than justified in pointing to an extreme heat event as a harbinger of the future.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 12:40 PM on 15 February 2016Satellites show no warming in the troposphere
sailingfree
Take a look at the RSS site here.
Select different dataseries to show different heights. The graph on the left for each one is the Weighting Function. Essentially how much of the signal for that channel originates from different levels of the atmosphere. Irrespective of whether there is an actual Goldilocks layer at altitude, there is a blurring of our ability to measure it due to the physics of radiation transfer. -
Rolf Jander at 12:24 PM on 15 February 20162016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
I have been havin great fun posting on this article.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/10/what-these-christians-are-giving-up-for-lent-fossil-fuels/?postshare=8681455137488521&tid=ss_tw-bottom
Come join in
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jenna at 11:33 AM on 15 February 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #7
An interesting essay on people's perception of the weight of expert consensus;
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sailingfree at 05:44 AM on 15 February 2016Satellites show no warming in the troposphere
The Earth's surface is in a warming trend, somewhat as predicted.
The stratosphere is in a cooling trend, as predicted.
So would not there be a "Goldilocks Layer" in between, with no trend at all?
Could that Goldilocks Layer be the middle troposphere?So "No warming, since forever." can be the denialists' mantra.
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NecktopPC at 05:03 AM on 15 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
PS - I am not disputing that your site is about climate.
Can climate exist without weather?
Weather is a major factor of climate. Weather over periods of time, results in the establishment of a climate; over time.
Does weather not make climate? Surely you would agree that climate does not constitute weather - and climate is based on the history of weather.
December 2015 (Daffodils) may have been the warmist in the U.K. thus far. but it all depends on the historic average trends (climate), and over decades.
Point being; should the past December (and it should) be included into the historical data, and then the average temperatures (calculated) considered; how much of an increase or decrease is there, for Decembers as a rule, over that historical period?
El Nino by itself in not weather, but it certainly is, a factor of weather - and likewise, so is the gulfstream and the jetstream.
Likewise: El Nino by itself, does not constitute climate, but it does have a definite effect on climate, albeit not in the long term. It does influence the weather, and the climate, and can be a factor, for as much as two years or more.
If there were no weather reports, and or the collection of weather data, then how would climate be established, or determined? One would only have one's memory or personal opinions to go on, in order to come to a decision, regarding what the climate is, at a particular location or country.
Moderator Response:[PS] Have you actually read the article you are commenting on? Eg "We expect 2016 to be the warmest year ever, primarily because of climate change but around 25% because of El Niño,” said Scaife, who added that El Niño was not linked directly to climate change but exacerbates its effects." Your weather reports seem to be pushing the view that nothing is really changing, nothing to worry about. The article, and papers provided by other commentators, show otherwise. You are welcome to provide contrary evidence of trends. So far you have not provided anything about trend.
NH average temperatures for Dec can be found here, should you want to calculate the trend.
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NecktopPC at 00:16 AM on 15 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
KR - I was not disproving global warming, based on the weather trends in the U.K.
I provided some weather information simply as a means of showing that the weather in the U.K. and daffodils blooming, was a one off, and that its not so unusual. (snip) The sky is not falling.
"According to the UK Met Office, the exceptional warmth in Britain and northern continental Europe is linked to the strongest El Niño ever recorded. “What we are experiencing is typical of an early winter El Niño effect,” said Adam Scaife, head of Met Office long- range forecasting."
Climate is the average of weather over time and space. An easy way to remember the difference is; climate is what you expect, like a very hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a hot day with pop-up thunderstorms.
Moderator Response:[RH] Sloganeering phrase snipped.
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Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
NecktopPC - See Does cold weather disprove global warming? The answer is No. Short term weather is not climate, and if you are arguing that the variation of a cold week disproves long term trends, you are simply wrong. Rather, you are just repeating earlier red herrings.
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