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dvaytw at 19:06 PM on 6 July 2015In charts: how a revenue neutral carbon tax cuts emissions, creates jobs, grows the economy
PS - when I say "the success or lack thereof" in the previous post, I mean, of BC's carbon tax.
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dvaytw at 18:01 PM on 6 July 2015In charts: how a revenue neutral carbon tax cuts emissions, creates jobs, grows the economy
I posted this in a different thread, but haven't gotten a response, so thought I'd try here (and if I may add, I still think email notifications of thread activity are the way to go in keeping threads alive!):
I've been arguing about the success or lack thereof in another forum:
Climate Change - Impacts Part 2
The opposing argument against the info I posted from SkS are as follows:
1) while BC is keeping pace with the rest of Canada, it was doing better before 2008:
2) it's unlikely that a few cents' tax had such a dramatic effect on consumption:
BC's carbon tax has had little effect on fuel consumption
3) in 2014, gas consumption in BC is back up to where it was in 2008:
No B.C. carbon tax miracle on 120th St.I'm not posting any of this because I oppose carbon pricing; I definitely favor it. But I do like to be honest about what the evidence is and what inferences can be made. Can anyone help me defend the BC tax against these critiques?
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PhilippeChantreau at 16:58 PM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
Ryland cites an ideology ladden article above with this: "Real concern for the poor would result in an embrace of cheap energy, including fossil fuels, which, along with market capitalism and the rule of law, has been responsible for dragging more people out of the poverty and democratising luxury than any number of sympathic prayers."
What's really cheap in this article is the rethoric. The real cost of the so-called cheap energies has been stored away or externalized and is piling up to make a for an enormous bill that will be beyond the means of all mankind put together. Even the Wall Street clowns won't have funny maths to get out of that one, especially in light of their math performance that culminated in 2008. Frankly, it seems that the clergy knows every bit as much about economics than these bufoons did. At least, their prayers didn't cost trillions to the World economy.
As for how much concern for the poor happens in the free market fanatic circles, well, do we really have to stoop that low? Back in the days, free market was of course responsible for dragging out of poverty the 7 years old children working in textile mills 12 hours a day, as we all know.
"Democratize luxury." My favorite. What a load of dung. Luxury would then consist of having light, running water and heat in the winter. By 14th century standards, that's definitely luxury. Unlike, say, having your kids go to a $50k/year preschool, or debating whether or not to run your yacht as a commercial charter operation in the Caribean during these long months when you can't use it because you're too busy with that pesky thing called work and you're stuck with private jets for transportation. Luxury is such a relative notion. For some, it's a high probability of having meals lined up next week. Perhaps we'll all get back to that point one day. The way things are going now, it certainly seems we're trying. A great equalizing of sorts...
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John Hartz at 12:02 PM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
In the context of overcoming human inertia re the mitigation of manmade climate change, the following caught my eye...
People are more likely to respond to the issue of climate change if they can see it with their own eyes, research on thermal imaging has found.
Sabine Pahl and colleagues investigated ways to motivate people to improve the energy efficiency of their homes. They tried three strategies, including a home energy audit, a text report about energy efficiency and taking photos with a thermal imaging camera.
“We found across several studies that thermal images of their own homes are really engaging to householders,” says Dr Pahl, Associate Professor in Psychology at the University of Plymouth who will be presenting at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference in Paris from 7-10 July.
Making heat visible: Thermal images motivate household energy efficiency, Our Common Future, June 30, 2015
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scaddenp at 11:14 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
To me, voting against a carbon tax feels very like the Greek vote against reform. Okay, that is simplistic, but Greece cannot continue the way is has in the past anymore than we can continue with FF as we have. I think nature is rather more uncompromising than euro bankers.
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Tom Curtis at 11:01 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
ryland @9, it is quite obvious that if it is acceptable, in 2018, to replace existing houses or to build carbon neutral houses, then it is also acceptable to replace an existing house with two 50% carbon neutral houses; or to modify an existing house to halve its carbon emissions, and build a new house with just 50% of current emissions per house, and so on. In particular, each 1% reduction in emissions from national electricity generation makes room for further economic growth.
Ergo, Stephen Leahy's formula sounds dramatic, it really represents only a formula for no more emissions growth from 2018. Rather than a cessation of emissions growth (and hence ongoing growth in CO2 concentration), what the world needs is the almost complete elimination of net anthropogenic emissions by 2050, and hence on the order of a 3% reduction in global emissions per annum. That is a doable target. Even with slow initial progression, a genuine attempt to move in that direction will allow very rapid strides in the near future. It is not, however, something on which we can delay - and each year that we delay - each year you win your struggle for inaction makes the cost of transition higher (because it must be more rapid), and the end benefit lower (because of increased global warming durring the delay).
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scaddenp at 07:21 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
Ryland, I am quite sure that if the world doesnt divest of FF, then the people who will pay with be largely the poor, and largely those who not contributed to global warming nor benefited from FF. Getting off FF will very likely (without some new tech) mean paying for energy but I find the idea the the West shouldnt do so because of "damage to the economy" as immoral and repulse. Is it realistic? I dont know. How many people out there feel like you apparently do? I am heartened when talking to the younger generation who seem much more prepared to seek justice. Would they vote for a carbon tax? yes, I think they would.
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John Hartz at 07:13 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
@ryland #9:
It is extremely hard for any indidvidual to get their head around the enormity of what we are doing to the climate system of our only home planet. We have stark choices to make if we are to avoid self-extinction. Time is not on our side.
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ryland at 05:38 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
John Hartz @7. Do you really believe that the world will act as suggested in the article to which you refer? This statement, see below shows a staggering degree of naivety
“By 2018, no new cars, homes, schools, factories, or electrical power plants should be built anywhere in the world, ever again unless they’re either replacements for old ones or are carbon neutral? Are you sure I worked that out right?” I asked Steve Davis of the University of California, co-author of a new climate study'.
If this is what must occur then the world is doomed because it is a totally unrealistic proposition as time will certainly tell. Is the building of the houses required for the ever expanding human population going to be halted? What will be the cost of making all new homes carbon neutral? Who will bear the costs of, for example, insulation? Will these strictures apply globally?
The mind boggles.
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bozzza at 03:21 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
Divestment begets Investment: mixed market economies mean a winner is always picked and if the natural oligopoly is leaning away from fossil fuels then a carbon fee it will be!
Governments simply provide and if fossil fuels aren't producing the comparative goods anymore then say hello to a new world.
(Maybe we will mine moonrock for nuclear fusion fuel afterall...)
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John Hartz at 02:52 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
@ ryland #6:
What will happen if the human race cannot get its act together within three years is starkly set forth in:
A hard deadline: We must stop building new carbon infrastructure by 2018 by Stephen Leahy, The Leap, July 2, 2015
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ryland at 02:05 AM on 6 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
I think you're right about the carbon tax Tom Curtis but will it happen? And if not, then what?
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Tom Curtis at 23:09 PM on 5 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
Ryland, the tobacco industry proves very effectively just how well "free market economics" serves the poor. Likewise Nestle's promotion of baby formulas in the third world. Any presumption that "free markets", by which is meant unrestrained corporate search for profits, will automatically help the poor represents simply ideology in action.
In the particular case of fossil fuels, a universal carbon tax in western nations would reduce demand for fossil fuels in those nations, thereby reducing the price of fossil fuels to poor nations. At the same time it would increase research into making alternative energy sources cheaper, thereby bringing alternative energy into the price range of the poor. Likewise, divestment in fossil fuel portfolios can be coupled with investment in renewable energy with the effect of making renewable energy cheaper.
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Tristan at 21:57 PM on 5 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
Hi Ryland
For a large fraction of the world's 'poor', they aren't on a functioning grid anyway, so coal won't help them much. localised generation like solar and wind is much easier to deploy.
It's also not an either/or scenario for the working poor in affluent nations. For instance, the carbon tax in Australia came with an energy rebate, thus avoiding the 'little old ladies dying from cold because they refuse to turn on their expensive heating" meme. There's no reason why we can't help the needy and ensure the long-term prospects of our environment.
Most of the people who tell us how we should help the poor by doing some other alternative (Lomborg etc) have no actual interest in helping the poor. It's a smokescreen.
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ryland at 20:17 PM on 5 July 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #6: Pope Francis & Climate Change
An editorial in this weekend's Australian Financial Review (a Fairfax paper) asks this question "Should churches be saving souls or saving the planet?
The editorial then goes on to address this question as follows:
"Perhaps Australia's churches would argue they're doing both. Unfortunately, those pushing fossil fuel divestment campaigns are doing neither."
It then goes on
"At the root of the problem is a fundamental ignorance of economics among much of the clergy. Many bishops and church leaders are all too ready to engage in "lapel-pin political slogans", crying "neo-liberalism", or "fossil fuels", but without considering that without them all people, particularly the poor and downtrodden for whom the church claims particular concern, would be worse off."
and concludes:
"Real concern for the poor would result in an embrace of cheap energy, including fossil fuels, which, along with market capitalism and the rule of law, has been responsible for dragging more people out of the poverty and democratising luxury than any number of sympathic prayers."
I suspect the coal miners of Kentucky and indeed elsewhere would subscribe to this view. I certainly do but i suspect that my truthful comment might be self defeating
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Dcrickett at 05:44 AM on 5 July 2015More evidence that global warming is intensifying extreme weather
I suspect effects related to rate of change, in addition to effects related to change. The only basis for this is that I have noticed peculiarities during change from one quasi-stable state thru a threshold of instability to a different quasi-stable state. Water coming to a boil in a pot on the stove. Fall and Spring, between Winter and Summer. These transitions are not merely a mix of the "From" and "To" quasi-stable states. (From laminar flow to turbulent flow is not an example.)
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APT at 00:28 AM on 5 July 2015IPCC overestimate temperature rise
Tom Curtis @62
Thanks Tom, that's very clear. -
Tom Curtis at 22:32 PM on 4 July 2015IPCC overestimate temperature rise
APT @61:
1) The primary reason for the larger uncertainty for the shorter time period is that there are 43.5% fewer data points.
2) Using the Berkeley Earth global dataset, the trend from 1990 to current is 0.164 +/- 0.066 C per decade. From 2000 to current it is 0.095 +/- 0.129 C per decade. Both are "statistically indistinguishable" from the model projected 0.2 C per decade. Further, the only of the two trends long enough to be significant has a median value at 82% of the model projected trends, showing that at worst the models only mildly overestimate current temperature trends.
3) UAH v6 is very similar to RSS in its values. Using the SkS trend calculator we see that the RSS trend over the period 1979-current is 0.121 +/- 0.064 C per decade. UAH v6 is likely to have a similar error margin. The primary reasons RSS trends are lower than surface trends are, first, a greater reponsiveness to ENSO fluctuations resulting in a greater reduction in the post 1998 trend from the rapid rise in SOI values (ie trend towards more and stronger La Nina events), and second, limited reporting of Arctic values with their very high temperature trends. As to whether the UAH result is accurate, v6 has not yet been reported in peer reviewed literature so that it is not yet possible to determine if the reported values correctly report the values determined by the (as yet not formally described) v6 method. More generally, there is a significant scientific debate as to whether satellite values are more or less accurate than surface values, and as to how exactly they should be related in that they do not strictly report the same thing. For my money, I no with a fairly high degree of confidence that surface values (particularly BEST and GISS) are accurate; but think there is good reason to doubt the accuracy of the satellite values, even for the Lower Troposphere, let alone for the actual surface.
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APT at 21:27 PM on 4 July 2015CO2 measurements are suspect
Tom Curtis @79
Thanks for the reference and explanation. Interesting and useful. -
bozzza at 21:17 PM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
@17, possibly worth knowing en masse to prevent the resource bottlenecks of panic that are predicted!
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APT at 21:14 PM on 4 July 2015IPCC overestimate temperature rise
Hi everyone,
I have some questions:
In the intermediate version, observed data is given as 0.15 ± 0.08°C per decade from 1990 to 2012, and 0.06 ± 0.16ºC from 2000 to 2012. Why is the uncertainty so much greater for the 2000 to 2012 observed data?
The data here only goes to 2012. How do the projections compare with data up to 2015?
Looking for more up-to-date information, I found a piece on UAH 6.0 to 2015 on Dr. Roy Spencer's website:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/
Is his figure of 0.114ºC per decade from 1979 to 2015 accurate? It's certainly precise, why no error margin?
In anticipation of the kind of responses I got last time I asked questions on this website, let me be clear that this is a genuine request for information, not an argument. -
bozzza at 19:41 PM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
@16,
Colourful Language is what haunts this 24-7 Hollywood-inspired world of buy-buy-buy-NOW!!
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bozzza at 18:58 PM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
@18,
I -for one- appreciate this insight into the phenomenon!
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MA Rodger at 18:32 PM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
I do wonder if a quick lesson in what pH actually measures would be worthwhile. There is no "neutral" pH as such. Water is famously H2O. However, the hydrogen in H2O isn't as sticky as it could be so pure water also contains H1O and H3O. pH is actually a measure of the stickiness of hydrogen within a solution. (It's actually hydrogen ions. There's an electrical charge involved +H.) In pure water one-in-10million mollecules are H30, a ratio which can also be expressed as 1:107. This 7 is the measure of pH, the equilibrium stickiness of hydrogen in pure water. Change the solution by adding stuff with different stickiness and the stickiness will obviously change.
So something with a low pH has more +H flying about which makes it more acidic than something with a high pH where the hydrogen is stickier so doesn't fly about so much. But with high pH there is still some unstuck +H. Thus there is no "neutral" as such. The popular idea that alkali is the opposite of acid is a bit of a nonsense. But explaining that is a whole lot more complicated.
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Tom Curtis at 11:37 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod @15:
"Is it fair to say that anything outside the prefered Ph level is "corrosive"?"
Probably not. Low pH (or insufficient aragonite) will result in more difficulty building and maintaining shells. High pH will probably result in either wasted metabolic energy (ie, the shell building process is not as efficient as it could be in the conditions), and/or excess calcium deposition. The later may deform shells or result in depositions in otherwise harmfull locations (ie, the mollusc equivalent of gout or kidney stones). Both the metabolic inefficiency and excess deposition may make species vulnerable to displacement by invasive species better adapted to the new conditions. Other than that, however, neither will cause short term problems SFAIK.
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michael sweet at 11:37 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod,
The issue here is calcium carbonate dissolving due to lower pH. An increase in pH, while it would be harmful to animals, would not dissolve the shells of shellfish and corals. Therefor an increase in pH would not be corrosive in the way acidic water is. I think corrosive is being used because it is a description of the action of the acidic water.
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Sinbod at 11:22 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Excellent explanation. Various species of organisms have there own sweet spot and anything outside that range is potentially quite harmful to development. In theory stomach bacteria would find a neutral Ph environment quite distasteful. Is it fair to say that anything outside the prefered Ph level is "corrosive"?
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - No. See my previous comment. Whether or not seawater is corrosive to calcium carbonate shells and skeletons depends on the calcium carbonate saturation state which decreases with geologically-rapid injections of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
On the left-hand column of the page is a series called OA not OK. It was written by experts in this field and goes into quite some detail. The answer to many common myths about ocean acidification can be found there.
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michael sweet at 11:20 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod,
Googling "Washington oysters pH" gives many hits on problems with pH in the Washington oyster aquaculture program. Most are newspapers but this one is from NOAA. When I Googled "Washington Oysters parasite" I got no hits. Can you cite a reference for your claim that the problem was parasites?
There are several articles that detail acidic water killing the oyster spat. They monitor the pH of the incoming water at the hatcheries and have resolved the issue for the present. Washington is first affected because upwelling water there is from further north and is not very old. Others will be affected as the acidic water moves south on currents. As CO2 concentrations in the air increase, pH will decrease more and more.
As Tom said, some species will be affected earlier than others. These oysters are vulerable when they are very small. Other species will be affected differently (although young animals are often less resilient than older animals).
Freah water species have evolved to survive in lower pH. The biggest problem is not the absolute pH but the change from what the animals are adapted to. It is very damaging for most animals to have change from optimal conditions.
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Tom Curtis at 10:53 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod @12, generating shells requires energy. How much energy will depend on the availability of the base materials in the environment, and the corrosivity of the environment to the shell. Because in most circumstances these will be fairly stable features, animals with shells will evolve specific mechanisms to generate shells in their particular environments, tending towards the least metabolic cost pathway available. As a result, we would not expect corrosivity to be an equal factor across species regardless of the background pH in their normal environment. Further, some species may be robust to change in pH within a range because that range of pH is the normal in their environment. Further, some species to be more robust to change in pH outside the normal range in their environment, not due to evolved capability but just by chance, depending on the specific mechanism of shell generation they use.
The issue, therefore, is not whether there is some magic number which is corrosive for shell fish. Rather, for all shell fish there will be a pH range (different for different species) which represents the mean and deviation normally experienced in their environment, and pushing the pH range below the range of variability will be deleterious to the species. At a minimum level it will be harmful by either/or increasing the metabolic cost of maintaining the shell or thining the shell resulting in it being less protection against predators. At the high end, the species will be unable to grow shells at all. The greater the decrease in pH the greater the risk of a high end response. Further, the more rapid the change in pH (and hence the less time for an evolved response), the greater the risk of a high end response.
Finally, as I understand it, the real issue is aroganite saturation, rather than the pH itself, with pH being a good proxy for aragonite saturation (but chemistry is not my strong suite so don't quote me on that).
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Sinbod at 10:19 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Thanks, the relativity of the material, understood.
Note, I live in the northwest. I was concerned about the shell fish issue however when I read the acidification paper in detail it was clear that the results were ambiguous with some species unchanged, some worse and some better off. I also reviewed the oyster issue which was a problem with parasites... Have you read the details?
Since there are fresh water shellfish, is 8 some kind magic Ph bad spot for a specific type of shellfish?
Note, not denying anything - just like to understand what on the surface seems contradictory.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - The die-off of larval oysters in the hatcheries was due to the intake of corrosive (carbonate undersaturated) sea water. See my SkS post: Corrosive Seawater, Not Low pH, Implicated As Cause of Oyster Deaths.
It's not pH per se that is the issue, as the oceans will remain alkaline, but rather the decline in carbonate ion abundance that results when more carbon dioxide is dissolved into the oceans. As carbonate ion abundance decreases so does the carbonate saturation state. When undersaturation is reached seawater becomes physically corrosive to calcium carbonate forms.
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michael sweet at 09:49 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod,
The pH at which water is corrosive depends on the reactivity of the material. For sodium, pH 14 water is severely corrosive.
For this discussion the question is at what pH is sea water corrosive to calcium carbonate. It turns out that pH is about pH 8.0. Since the current average pH of the ocean is only slightly above that, it only requires a small amount of acidification to affect shell forming animals.
In high latitudes, carbon dioxide is more soluble in the ocean becasue the temperature of the water is lower. In some of these locations the ocean is already becoming corrosive to shell forming animals. Oregon and Washington have observed die offs of oyster larve from acidified sea water.
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Sinbod at 09:33 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
My point isn't about the term acidification, it's about claiming that a slightly less alkaline ocean is somehow going to be more corrosive. If PH is heading towards neutral that doesnt make sense. In order for the oceans to become more corrosive, the PH level would have to go either somewhat higher a lot lower (at least below 7) - in 300 million years the oceans have been alkaline. So what gives with the corrosive statement.
Moderator Response:[JH] Pease read the intermediate version of the SkS rebuttal article, Ocean acidification: global warming's evil twin.
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Bob Loblaw at 09:31 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod:
To follow up on Rob Honeycutt's comment, you are still allowed to say "I'm going south for a holiday this winter", even if you are only going from New York to Miami. You don't have to pass into the southern hemisphere before you are "going south".
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:25 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
Sinbod... No, "acidification" does not require that you be on the acid side of the scale. It merely requires that you're moving the pH in that direction.
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Sinbod at 09:01 AM on 4 July 2015Cracking the mystery of the corrosive ocean
"But our findings suggest other factors made the Atlantic far more corrosive than the rest of the world’s oceans. This means that sediments in the Atlantic Ocean are not representative of worldwide CO2 concentrations during the PETM."
"Corrosive" - I don't understand, the oceans are alkaline, if they are moving towards the acid side of the PH scale, wouldn't they first have to become more neutral to get there? Aqueous solutions are corrosive at either end of the PH scale but the middle of the scale is the least corrosive. Are you claiming that the oceans actually crossed into being on the acid side of the PH scale like fresh water?
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Evan Jones at 07:56 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
[PS] Hypothesizing about an unseen future paper is fruitless and frankly offtopic. I would strongly suggest that no further discussion happen on this subject until there is an actual paper to discuss.
I don't see why. But as you wish.
Moderator Response:[RH] ***Note to all.*** This conversation has to stop until an actual paper is provided. All follow up comments will be deleted until such time Evan produces a paper for us to read.
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Evan Jones at 07:54 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Tamino and Ramsdorf have both put out blogs that show there are no cooling (or flat) periods in the global record for the past 50 years.
There is perceptible Tmean cooling in the US from 1999-2008.
Class 1\2 (Raw+MMTS adjustment): -0.135C/decade
Class 3\4\5 (Raw + MMTS adjustment): -0.309C/decade
Class 1\2 (NOAA-adjusted): -0.232C/decade
Class 3\4\5 (NOAA-adjusted): -0.398C/decade
As you can see, the cooling is exaggerated by poor microsite and made worse by adjustment. Same happens the other way around, which is most of the time.
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Evan Jones at 07:23 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
If you draw a trend from 1998-2008 the 'heat sinks' react one way, but if you draw the trend from 1998-2015 they react differently?
The trend from ~2001 to 2015 is flat. Therefore, there will be no divergence over time for that period. What we want to examine is if there is a divergence during a strong cooling period and if so, how much that divergence is. Including a long string of flat data on the end muddies the signal and places 2008 near the middle, which washes out the slope.
For that reason, we also supply 1979-2008 data in order to show a warming-only period.
I repeat, we are not trying to say that our 1999-2008 series is representative of the US or global longterm trend. We are only using it to demonstrate the effect of heat sink during a period of significant cooling.
How can a heat sink react to a trend line? A trend line isn't a physical thing. It's an exploratory tool. There is no way a heat sink can be reacting to temps a decade ago.
A heat sink's effect on any datapoint is relevant in relation to its given place in a given series. Start point, end pont, trend. If a relatively cooling period occurs near the start of the time series, the trendline is increased. If it occurs duing the end of the time series, it decreases the trendline.
If a blip occurs smack in the middle of a time series, it doesn't affect the trend a hoot in hell no matter how high or how low it is. But a step change has the greatest effect in the middle of a time series and the smallest at either end.
It's not about a sensor, or even a datapoint. It's about what point the datapoint occurs in the series, be it running warm or cool.
During a warming phase, the heat sink's temperature rises dispropotionately. It is a function of that difference over time that is the spurious amount added to the sensor reading from the start to end point. If it is a cooling trend, the effect works in reverse.
Moderator Response:[PS] Hypothesizing about an unseen future paper is fruitless and frankly offtopic. I would strongly suggest that no further discussion happen on this subject until there is an actual paper to discuss.
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Evan Jones at 06:57 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Yes indeed. Anthony Watts has made a career of finding the mud an wallowing in it.
He found this mud. Makes very good wallowing. I've been doing that for the last five years, so I should know.
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dcpetterson at 05:27 AM on 4 July 2015Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain
I got into an argument recently with a denier who is convinced the gain of seasonal Antarctic sea ice compensates for the loss of Arctic sea ice, because the increased albedo in the south substitutes for the loss of albedo in the north. I worked up a graphic to show why that doesn't work.
Below is a picture of the Earth in northern hemisphere summer. This is the time that the Arctic ocean under the collapsing northern sea ice is absorbing the most heat from the sun. This is also the time of the greatest extent of Antarctic sea ice, since it is winter in the southern hemisphere. This is the time of year when deniers claim the minor increase in seasonal Antarctic sea ice somehow compensates for the loss of permanent northern sea ice.
The red streak at the top of the picture shows the amount of sunlight falling on the vanishing northern ice cap. The thin red line at the bottom of the picture shows the amount of sunlight falling on the “increased” southern hemisphere sea ice. Both are approximations. In the north, I enclose the entire ice cap, not just the parts that have vanished, because in a very few years the Arctic will be virtually ice-free in the summer. Likewise, I made the southern line about three times thicker than it should be, to allow for three times as much Antarctic seasonal sea ice gain than we’ve seen so far, so that deniers don't think I'm ignoring the possibility of more growth there.
As you can see, the two red patches are not anywhere near the same size. The loss of Arctic sea ice cannot be compensated for by a gain in Antarctic winter sea ice, unless Antarctic winter sea ice begins to reach to Madagascar and to southern Australia.
This graphic is only approximate. It may be more useful (and more complete) to do a series of more carfully-made graphics, starting with polar views that show both the average and the current extent of Arctic summer and Antarctic winter sea ice, and then probably a picture showing where the sun rays fall in September when the Arctic is at its minimum and the Antarctic is at its maximum. Probably also, the final graphic should be from the sun's point of view, showing the vast areas of now-open ocean lit by the sun in the north, and the thin sliver of arc where the Antarctic "increase" is located.
If this does seem to be a useful approach, feel free to either adapt this graphic, or to request the series.
All this ignores, of course, the fact that whatever happens near the South Pole can't possibly undo the changes to northern hemisphere climate (wind and ocean currents, loss of habitat, etc.) that the loss of Actic ice causes.
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John Hartz at 04:24 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
While we wax eloquently on comment threads such as this, thanks to AGW, the Earth’s climate system is going to hell in a handbasket at an accelerating and alarming rate.
In an editorial published today, Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief Science Journals, eloquently states our predicament in a single paragraph:
In Dante’s Inferno, he describes the nine circles of Hell, each dedicated to different sorts of sinners, with the outermost being occupied by those who didn’t know any better, and the innermost reserved for the most treacherous offenders. I wonder where in the nine circles Dante would place all of us who are borrowing against this Earth in the name of economic growth, accumulating an environmental debt by burning fossil fuels, the consequences of which will be left for our children and grandchildren to bear? Let’s act now, to save the next generations from the consequences of the beyond-two-degree inferno.
The beyond-two-degree inferno, Editorial by Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief Science Journals, July 3, 2015
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michael sweet at 03:44 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Evan Jones,
Tamino and Ramsdorf have both put out blogs that show there are no cooling (or flat) periods in the global record for the past 50 years. There cannot possibly be a statisticly significant cooling or flat period in the US record which is noisier. You are fooling yourself. Your claims will not stand an unbiased review. Fortunately, you have Watts new "journal" to publish in and do not need peer review.
This discussion is a waste of time. I have given you feedback and you assure me that you have covered the bases without showing me any data or analysis. Your claim at 99 of 0.00000% chance of overlap cannot be true. Such data is un-natural for climate. No-one has that many significant figures. You must find someone who is qualified to analyze your data correctly.
I am no longer going to respond to your posts. Please go somewhere else and waste their time.
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MA Rodger at 03:44 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Evan Jones @107.
Okay. Your stated purpose here at SkS? "To elicit independent review. To answer all questions and field valid questions."
So let us have a sight of what the dickens it is we are supposedly reviewing and asking questions about!! While the suggestion of Rob Honeycutt @108 would be "consistent with (the) scientific method," I'm sure even on planets like Wattsupia or Climateetcia that indulge in trial-by-numpty, the folk are allowed a sight of the object under discussion.
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John Hartz at 03:40 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Evan:
Can you tell us what "game", Anthony Watts is going to change with this paper?
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John Hartz at 03:37 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Tristan:
Yeah, Evan appears to be a straight shooter. It's a shame that he's working with people who are not.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:49 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Evan Jones @107... An internet comments forum is a perfectly awful and inefficient way to have a fully substantive discussion on a research paper.
My suggestion would be for you to send John Cook a full copy of your paper and ask if the SkS team will review it. If accepted, we would review it privately and send back our comments.
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Evan Jones at 02:39 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Given this record you have of filling up comment threads to no purpose, can you make clear your purpose here? Are you just after a bit of a chat? Are you here to announce the imminent pre-release of Watts et al.(unsubmitted) for a second time? Do you wish to share some specific aspect of its content with us denizens here at SkS (& if so, we would benefit from knowing what)? Or are you just trolling it?
My purpose here is as stated. To elicit independent review. To answer all questions and field valid questions. When the boyz on the panel present the snappy questions, I'd just as soon have the snappy answers. That is the benefit I accrue.
Your benefit is that you get to know the current state of the paper. You share in those snappy answers and can come up with snappy rebuttals. Define the weak points. Be a constructive part of the process. I find always learns more from one's critics than from one's clique. A sword that cuts both ways, but consistent with scientific method.
When I corresponded with Doc. VV, whom I highly esteem, I got to know how/why homogenization can bomb. He got to know we were for real and is aware, at least, of a potential red flag. (though he is putting his stock in step jumps). We both got what we were after. We both profited from the exchange.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:34 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
Evan Jones @82... "That is exactly what our "purposes" were, and that is exactly what we did. And I have been addressing the resulting (exraordinarily valuable) independent review ever since. It takes time."
This strikes me as a post hoc rationalization. Your example would be a researcher sending out pre-press copies to colleagues, not a public press release stating your earth-shattering research is about to be published.
Perhaps the problem here is that you're trying to produce a research paper with a specific conclusion that the surface station data is wrong. You even say as much @81 where you state:
"I claim...that [US adjustments are wrong] — with very strong evidence — but WITHOUT the conspiracy theories. I do not think this is fraud, merely an error. An understandable one, one I might easily have made myself."
You're starting from a conclusion that you clearly could not prove before and now have spent 4 years and many thousands of hours attempting to locate something that very likely is incorrect. If there was "very strong evidence" then it wouldn't take 4 years and thousands of hours!
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Evan Jones at 02:23 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
1999-2008 is too short a time to obtain significant differences with a truncated data set without strong statistical analysis. Eyeballing a graph does not count. You will be strongly criticized for too short a period of time.
We do that strong statistical analysis. The divergene shows in our subsets as well as in our full sets. Actually, the graphs look much the same — until you drop in the trendlines. That is because the divergence is gradual over time, not a result of jumps in the data. The bar graphs show it "all at once", and therefore more starkly. Some are sown in the figures, all of it will be archived, and review is welcome. As far as I am concerned, the archive will be considered to be a living document, at least by me. There are always a few more stations to be found (perhaps 1/3 of them unperturbed and therefore "valid", if the past is any guide).
There is also the added advantage that a much larger number of stations are unperturbed for that period. For example, a station that moved in 1995 would not be eligible for the full set but could be included in the 1999 - 2008 set. So the shorter interval is compensated for by the larger sample size. And, as I say, since we are not in any way trying to extrapolate from that interval that AGW is not occurring, the 30-year rule does not apply.
We use the only two intervals available to us (reasons in pervious comment). We address the CRN vs. COOP issue. I can answer criticisms regarding not using a longer set. In order to assess microsite, one would have to split it all into warming, cooling, and flat intervals, being careful to pick the correct start and end points (always a reality MoE and always a point of argument).
FWIW, regarding the flat trend since CRN went official, I consider the "pause" to be an artifact of CO2 pushing up and negative PDO pushing down. But the period we picked was 1979-2008, which is nearly all positive PDO. That was the point, though. We want to measure the effects of warming on stations. To do that, one would naturally want to select a period of maximum warming. Both CO2 and positive PDO piled into one. We also include a 1979-1998 version. Warming/Cooling is the primary indicator, and the greater the trend, the better one can generally measure effects upon it. And I dug up a nice distinct cooling period (shorter but more sample sixe) to observe the effects of cooling. Also primary. A non-divergence in a flat trend is secondary, although important because it is consistent with and important to the hypothesis.
This is not cherrypicking because we are not in any way saying that our findings for these intervals are in any way typical of the whole. In a sense, these intervals are selected precisely because they grant a maximum play for heat sink effect on the sample to be measured, and are therefore — not — typical of the whole, by design. But it important to note this and not claim any of these intervals as "typical".
Our sample size is lower than our 2012 set. We don't have the quite same subsets (but using the archived sheet, you could run them up). Our results for microsite are a bit warmer than in 2012. Anomalizing the data was a large factor in this, as was dropping TOBS-biased stations. Moves were pretty much a push, so far as I could tell.
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Tristan at 01:22 AM on 4 July 2015Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
John, I don't believe Evan is trying to deceive.
I believe he is trying to do something without any of the multi-disciplinary background generally required to do such a thing (he's stated that he's self-taught) and therefore doesn't recognise that he's come-a-cropper. I admire his efforts, but he needs to realise that his interpretation of the data has lead to some unphysical conclusions. The response to that is not "invent new physics", which seems to be what he has done, but rather "figure out why my sampling is spitting out these results".
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