Recent Comments

Prev  571  572  573  574  575  576  577  578  579  580  581  582  583  584  585  586  Next

Comments 28901 to 28950:

28901. shoyemore at 04:44 AM on 21 June 2015
       2015 SkS News Bulletin #5: Pope Francis & Climate Change
       

       Two days after the Pope's Encyclical, I am greatly encouraged by the response.

       On an open message board where I post regularly, and climate change issues get scant attention, a new thread on Papal Letter drew a large response. The usual deniers got beaten into a cocked hat by people who never posted before.

       While the Encyclical is primarily intended for moral guidance, I think a mass of people will accept Francis I as an "honest broker". He has clearly consulted the science, and cannot be dismissed as a mere political partisan or get-rich-merchant, which were the accusations flung at Al Gore or Barack Obama, lunatic and all as they sound.

       Clearly, it is in the US and Australia that his message will be most influential. Ad Eli Rabett said, if he just influences 10% of tCatholic opinion, with a smaller effect on those of other or of no faith, that may be a sufficient tipping point.

       http://rabett.blogspot.ie/2015/06/what-catholic-opinion-on-death-penalty.html

28902. John Hartz at 03:11 AM on 21 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       In case you are not aware, today is World Refugee Day and its theme echoes what is contained in the Pope's encyclical.

       Excerpted from a CNN article about this day:

       In a statement, Guterres* warned that "a spreading global violence has come to threaten the very foundations of our international system" and urged the world not to turn its back on those who most need its help.

       "More people fled last year than at any other time in our records. Around the world, almost 60 million have been displaced by conflict and persecution. Nearly 20 million of them are refugees, and more than half are children," he said.

       Their numbers are growing every day, on every continent, he said. And they rely on the world for their survival.

       "They will remember what we do," he said. "Yet, even as this tragedy unfolds, some of the countries most able to help are shutting their gates to people seeking asylum. Borders are closing, pushbacks are increasing, and hostility is rising. Avenues for legitimate escape are fading away."

       At the same time, he said, humanitarian organizations like the UNHCR run on shoestring budgets, unable to meet the spiraling needs of such massive numbers of people.In a statement, Guterres warned that "a spreading global violence has come to threaten the very foundations of our international system" and urged the world not to turn its back on those who most need its help.

       "More people fled last year than at any other time in our records. Around the world, almost 60 million have been displaced by conflict and persecution. Nearly 20 million of them are refugees, and more than half are children," he said.

       Their numbers are growing every day, on every continent, he said. And they rely on the world for their survival.

       "They will remember what we do," he said. "Yet, even as this tragedy unfolds, some of the countries most able to help are shutting their gates to people seeking asylum. Borders are closing, pushbacks are increasing, and hostility is rising. Avenues for legitimate escape are fading away."

       At the same time, he said, humanitarian organizations like the UNHCR run on shoestring budgets, unable to meet the spiraling needs of such massive numbers of people.

       *U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres.

       U.N. World Refugee Day: Richer nations urged to shoulder burden by Laura Smith-Spark, CNN, June 20, 2015

28903. One Planet Only Forever at 01:22 AM on 21 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       SkepticalinCanada,

       Humans, like all other species of life on this amazing plant, are comprised of sub-species. Identifying the sub-species of concern, not humanity generically, is what needs to be done.

       So here is my summary based on:

       • my MBA education (that helped make me aware of the motivations of many people in business and the potentially unacceptable power of marketing)
       • my Engineering education (That help me arrive at acceptable conclusions without the need for absolute certainty)
       • my Professionalism as an Engineer in Canada (The obligation to ensure I protect people and the environment from desired pursuits of profit)
       • and my many decades of observing what is going on and attempting to come up with the best explanation for all of the observations.

       The group of to be concerned about is the sub-species of humans who focus on maximizing the personal benefit that they can obtain, those who are not interested in the development of a lasting better future for all life on this amazing planet if such pursuit would potentially reduce the amount of personal benefit they can get.

       • Within that sub-species, is a sub-group of greater concern, those who deny or dismiss any developed understanding of the unacceptability of what they prefer to try to get away with.
       • Within that sub-group, the real trouble-makers are the ones who actually better understand what is going on but deliberately try to discredit any developing understanding that is contrary to 'their interests'. They abuse their power and wealth to delay the broader understanding in humanity of the unacceptability of what they try to get away with.

       That last group clearly is the root cause of the problem. That is the group that needs to be be blocked from any success, preferably by them just changing their minds. With that group gone the larger group of deniers will fade away. And with that group faded the free-market competition has a better chance of developing decent results because unacceptable pursuers of profit and pleasure would not be in the game with their competitive advantage over the ones who care more about their impacts on other life.

       The ones among the trouble-maker core who are unwilling to change their minds are just like any other criminals and should be dealt with in the same manner, except that the wealthier ones in that group should be treated more harshly because they have less excuse to 'not know better'.

       So a key part of the solution to the known problem would be an International Criminal Court and Investigation/Prosecution Team that looks for evidence of people who know better or should know better yet deliberately try to mislead others so they can personally obtain more benefit from an activity that is understood to be unacceptable (even understood by them to be unacceptable).

       Another part of the solution is ensuring that everyone understands that the profitability or popularity of an activity is not to be considered when deciding what activities are acceptable.

       As for references, there are many books written by many people about the challenge of creating lasting Civil Society with an Economy that can actually grow in perpetuity because it could last in perpetuity and only gets improved by newly developed ways of living that could also be enjoyed by all and last in perpetuity.

28904. SkepticalinCanada at 00:44 AM on 21 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       @34.  You make all sorts of comments about animals, and infer all sorts of things, but have not provided the evidence.  For example, the language of prairie dogs has been described as perhaps one of the most complex non-human languages observed, describing predators in detail in a single "chirp," dolphins have a complex language, chimpanzees have made tools and use them, animals demonstrate reasoning and compassion, and so on. In an opinion developed from purely personal observation, humans are not the unique and chosen species that we often try to make ourselves out to be. If we define morality or reasoning or ethics in terms of what humans do, then we have a nice bit of circular reasoning to say that we are the only moral or ethical species.

28905. SkepticalinCanada at 00:14 AM on 21 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       As this site is about evidence, and given the comments about overpopulation, I believe that it is entirely on topic to ask these questions, especially as the evidence I have asked for regarding carrying capacity has remained unanswered. Without evidence, it is a myth, or at least a fiction, that the planet is not already overpopulated, and that adding even more people will not increase the rate of extinction of other species and exacerbate all the other problems created by sheer human numbers.

       1. At what level of total impact/total consumption/total production of waste (pick the metric) is our current population sustainable?  Please quantify.

       2. What will be the impact on that total if we add another 3 billion people to the human population?

       3. What is the evidence that Herman Daly's projection of about 2 billion people being approximately the sustainable population level is incorrect?

       4. What is the evidence that our agricultural practices, fossil-fuel dependent or not, are sustainable (see my reference earlier to Peter Salonius and "The Ten Thousand Year Misunderstanding)?

       5. There is a focus amongst some on the habits of the highest consumers (and I don't disagree that it is an enormous problem), but what is the mechanism whereby we can reduce their consumption, and what impact will that have on the sustainable human population level?  Please quantify.

       If I forget humility for some reason and start to believe that humans are somehow special, unique, and moral, I go back to Lovelock's comment to the effect that humans are no more qualified to be stewards of the planet than goats are to be gardeners, and Eliot's comment that most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions.

       Herman Daly

       Peter Salonius

       Recent commentary on Daly

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please note that no one is obligated to answer the questions that you have posed. 

28906. luminous beauty at 23:45 PM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis,

       No matter how clear one's views may be in one's own mind, the language one uses to express those views is laden with ambiguity.  Especially in such a complex and historically rich subject as morality and ethics.  It's not anybody's fault.  That's how natural language breaks.  Patience furthers.

28907. uncletimrob at 18:31 PM on 20 June 2015
       Explainer: the models that help us predict climate change
       

       Thank you!

       This is a very interesting and informative post at the level of my students (and me). I'm often asked how climate modelling works and have to profess that I am really hazy about the detail (and how it relates to what we do in class) but will find out - mathematics and climate change modelling are clearly closely related, and this is a very nice summary. Now I will be able to relate our work another real-life situation.

       Tim

28908. Tom Curtis at 18:11 PM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @58, I had already repeatedly addressed the issues.  What I did @56 and also @53 was address the misrepresentation.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Your discourse with Ryland has run its course because he is now engaging in excessive repeitition which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. 

28909. nigelj at 14:44 PM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis @ 54. I have to agree with you on all that. Reducing population growth is a difficult task, and I have also read that on current policies and trends its likely to peak at 10 million around 2070, then stabilise. The figure I saw was 9.2 million. As you say its about affluence and carbon reductions and the costs of the transition are not as huge as some people claim

       However there are many reasons to reduce inequality,  and one of the side effects is it should lead to lower population growth as well.

28910. Tom Curtis at 12:17 PM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @55, in my comment @53 I was not referring to any particular case of misrepresentation, but your general tendency to do so as already commented on by PhilippeChantreau:

       "Ryland, re-read Tom Curtis' post. What he says is quite clear and does not seem to correspond to what you object; your post seems to consist mostly on grasping at specific words in his, and ascribing to them a meaning that their original context does not support."

       However, as you bring it up, you clearly misrepresent my position in your post @55 when you say my comment "...is putting restraining affluence ahead of the right of women to control their own fertility".  

       Not having a particular policy to restrain population growth is not equivalent to having a policy of not permitting women to have the right to control their own fertility.  Indeed, the Chinese "one child policy" represents a greater control on the fertility of woman than anything proposed by the Catholic Church.  The forced abortions implimented as part of that policy are, to my mind, morally equivalent to rape, and the absolute abnegation of giving women control over their own fertility.  In the case of China, giving woman control over their own fertility would almost certainly increase the fertility rate, and consequently population growth.

       Not only is giving women control over their own fertility not the same as restraining population growth (and having the potential to increase population growth in particular contexts); but people can be in favour of giving women controll over their own fertility for no other reason than to give women control over their own fertility.  Indeed, that is my own position.  I want women to have control over their own fertility whether it is likely to lead to increased fertility (as in China) or decreased fertility (likely in India) or have no effect at all.  I want it because their not being in controll of their own fertility is a moral wrong.  It treats woman as objects to satisfy male wants rather than as ends in themselves.

       Your unjustified equation of my position on population with a quite distinct and morally offensive position is deeply offensive to me.  It is also a very clear misrepresentation that permeates your argument.

28911. ryland at 11:43 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis you accuse me of misrepresenting you.  This is what you wrote at 35

       I also do not believe in using another persons agreement on one topic as a means to leverage their agreement on a different topic and think it is fairly much an open and shut case that unrestrained affluence has a more harmfull impact on the global ecosystem than third world population growth; and that therefore if we must make a choice between the two, restraint of the affluence is a more sensible strategy to preserve that ecosystem than preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth at the same time as they are playing catch up in affluence.

       This comment was in reply to my comment on contraception and women hving control of thei own fertility.  As I am accused of misrepresenting you will you explain exactly what you mean by the comment I have emphasised?  

       You may be sicvk of being misrepresented but equally I am sick of your evasion of the point I am making which is your comment is putting restraining affluence ahead of the right of women to control their own fertility.  In your many words on this you have not directly addressed this point. 

28912. michael sweet at 09:43 AM on 20 June 2015
       Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
       

       Langham,

       Please provide a citation to support your wild claim that millions of refugees is speculative.  You are making an uniformed assertion without any basis except your personal guess.

       This Realclimate post documents what sea level rise experts thought in 2013.  They estimated 70-120 cm of sea level rise (likely, with a chance of much more rise) by 2100 for RCP 8.5.  Since that time new data from the West Antarctic indicates much faster sea level rise.  This NY Times article  documents that a 1 meter rise would displace 20 million people from Bangladesh alone.  Count another 5 million at least from Florida.  This paper estimates 6 million refugees from a 1 meter rise of the Nile delta.  The Mekong delta is the same.  The second meter will displace many more people than the first meter.  Worldwide would be in the hundreds of millions.

       Your claim that millions of sea level rise refugees is speculative is simply an indication that you are uninformed about this subject.  Go do your homework and then come back and we can discuss it.

       Perhaps all these refugees can resettle in the mountains near you, since those mountians are currently not occupied and all the land near Bangladesh is already settled.  That would certainly look better than windmills!

28913. Tom Curtis at 09:39 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       nigelj @52, had the West's affluence (and hence per capita energy use) grown at historical levels while its population remained at preindustrial levels we would be nowhere near as close to dangerous thresholds of global warming as we now are, and would have far longer to convert to renewable energy.  However, likewise, if the West's population had grown as it did but its per affluence remained static we would also be no where near dangerous thresholds of global warming.  Indeed, per capita GDP of the US grew between 1960 and 2013 by 30% more than North American population grew from 1850 to 2012.  That is, per capita GDP growth over the last fifty odd years has exceeded population growth over the last 160 odd years.  Given that, there is no doubt as to which is the greater contribution to the problem.

       More importantly, population levels are inflexible and difficult to alter in the short term (see my post @51) and the necessary policies to significantly reduce populations on a centenial scale would be politically very hard to impliment.  Policies to restrict affluence could be implemented far quicker, although they would face similar political resistance.  If one or the other must give, however, the fact is we could viably reduce affluence without significantly effecting well being on a time scale of decades, something we could not do with population.

       More responsive than either, and facing far less political opposition, is reduction in Carbon intensity, ie, the total emissions per unit GDP.  In fact, carbon intensity in the US had been decreasing naturally with almost no policy help in the decades following the 1970s, and can be brought down to zero at need in a matter of decades with an economic cost approximately equal to or less than the economic growth rate.  That is, it can be realistically done without a decline of either affluence or population.  As the least cost, most rapidly implimentable, and politically least intractable solution, surely it must be our first option.

       That is particularly the case given that global population is likely to peak under 10 billion around 2075 with almost no policy intervention, and then decline slightly in any event (a pattern it would be very difficult to alter with our available policy implements over this century in any event). 

28914. Tom Curtis at 09:10 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       It would be nice if Ryland could cease not only in misrepresenting me, but also in misrepresenting the Catholic Church in this debate.  The Catholic Church is not opposed to birth control per se, but only to the use of contraception and abortions for birth control.  That leaves some form of natural familly planning, most notably the Billings method for birth control (along with the elimination of pregnacy outside marriage by complete abstinence, of course).  Further, as the Catholic Church is unequivocally opposed to marital rape, it follows that they do leave woman in controll of their own fertility, if restricting the means they can use to controll that fertility.  Based on Catholic teaching, no man can force a woman to become pregnant against her will, nor any woman force a man to impregnate her against his will.

       I think there are many things wrong with Catholic teaching on fertility and sex, but characterizing the Catholic position as preventing woman from controlling their own fertility is simply an emotive strawman.  

28915. nigelj at 08:52 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Population growth is a major factor that increases global warming, and I don't think anyone disputes this. It's interesting to review what has caused this population growth. The almost exponential rates of population growth in recent centuries were partly caused by improving incomes and health standards allowing most offspring to survive.

       However the increase in wealth and health standards ultimately also slowed population growth in the western world, as people realised they didn't need such large families to secure future generations. This is the well known demographic transition.

       Therefore the most fundamental answer to reducing population growth is to improve living standards, and this means reducing inequality, both within countries and between countries. Reducing inequality is an economic, social, and political question.

       Of course contraception is a major factor, but wont be fully adopted unless people are secure that they have rising living standards, and can securely have smaller families, backed up with good healthcare.

28916. Tom Curtis at 08:51 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Wol @45:

       "If the planet is facing a future catastrophe on the climate change issue, surely reducing our numbers is the very first thing to address, even before carbon reduction?"

       In order to address AGW we need to scale back CO2 emissions by about 50% by 2050, and to effectively 0% of current emissions by 2100 at a minimum.  I have to wonder how it is you intend to address even the first target by "reducing our numbers"?

       Even if we have a mandatory and enforced replacement rate only birth rate (ie, 1 child per person, or 2 children per couple), the global population would still increase in the short term due to increasing life expectancy.  To actually reduce populations we would need a global, mandatorally enforced below replacement birth rate.  To achieve that, in turn, we would need totalitarian control of the world's population.

       To see what is involved, consider China's "one child policy" which was introduced in 1978, ie, has been in effect for 37 years.  It has been effective in reducing the fertility rate which has dropped from 6.16 children per woman in the 1965 to 1.66 children per woman as of 2012.  The later is 17% below the replacement rate, yet China's population continues to grow at 0.5% a year as of 2012 (down from a peak at 2.8% per year in 1971.  Granted that the fertility rate is above the theoretical fertility rate of a one child policy (ie, 1 child per woman), but after 37 years China's policy still entails a growing population when on the same time scale we need to reduce emissions by 50% (at least).

       In short, the only way population control can be an effective policy to reduce emissions on the time scale required to tackle global warming is by deliberate reduction of life expectancy.  Unless we deliberately use the grim reaper as an agency of government, perhaps by introducing Logan's law, population is essentially an uncontrollable part of the equation for climate change policy.

       I assume that is not what you are suggesting.

28917. Tom Curtis at 08:21 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       wili @47:

       1)  I do not, and have not "equated life with DNA".  On the contrary I have addressed as two independent issues reasons by which loss of species involves loss to us and to the global ecosystem.  That I recognize them as independent issues and address them distinctly in fact shows that I do not reduce one to the other.

       I am getting rather sick of the constant misrepresentation of my stated opinions on thise page, mostly by Ryland but now by you.

       2) I agree that we as a community as a whole, and I in particular, often do not have the knowledge to know in advance if a particular loss of species will be minimally or greatly harmful, a fact I drew attention to when I wrote:

       "It should also be no comfort in that ecology is more complex even than climate so that it is often unpredictable as to the actual impact on total ecosystem viability from the loss of any given species. Therefore we should take all reasonable measures to minimize all species loss."

       This does not mean we cannot determine the average loss of ecosystem viability with the loss of an arbitrary species (although not with great accuracy, I think).  Nor does it mean we cannot determine that in general the impact of species loss will be minimal when the species is replaced by an allied species of very similar habitat and behaviour; or maximal when not replaced or replaced by an invasive species unlike any previously existing in the ecosystem.

       Difficulty in predicting the impact of the loss of a given species does not justify treating all species losses as an absolute loss (as SkepticalinCanada does).

28918. One Planet Only Forever at 07:47 AM on 20 June 2015
       The latest global temperature data are breaking records
       

       With NOAA's release of their May globl average surface temperature it can be stated that the 12 months ending in May 2015 are the warmest in the NOAA data set. It can also be said that in eth NOAA data set the 12 month averages ending since March 2014 have been warmer than the warmest 12 month average that occured during the very strong El NIno of 1997/98. The 12 month average ending in May 2015 is 0.799 compared to 0.672 (the highest value during the 1997/98 El Nino event).

28919. scaddenp at 07:29 AM on 20 June 2015
       Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
       

       If you think IPCC estimates of sealevel rise are delusional, then your desire for no change to the countryside is blinkering your outlook. The delata threats are from increasing salt incursion, coastal erosion (where small rise in sealevel can eat soft sediment fast without need to drown it) and increased danger from storm surge. These problems are happening now with only 20cm.

       I have no doubt that there are many selfish indifferent people in the western world. If you chose to stand with them, then dont expect much sympathy for your bleating about peaceful countrysides. I can only hope that there are more responsible, rights-respecting individuals making the actual decisions.

28920. Langham at 07:17 AM on 20 June 2015
       Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
       

       @ 78, 79: millions of refugees from drowning nations? At present that is a highly speculative scenario. To some it will seem you have fallen prey to the delusional paranoia/mass hysteria that is to be found on the fringes of the climate change debate. 

       I would hazard a guess that a significant majority of the population in developed countries remain utterly indifferent, if not outright unconvinced, of the need to cut back on FF (such reductions as have occurred can reasonably be attributed to fiscal incentives, technological improvements, and pain-free feelgood impulses rather than any conscious, altruistic forgoing of consumption); however, preach away by all means.

28921. ryland at 07:05 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Thanks Phil@48.  Unfotiunately I think that yet again my communication skills are lacking. My comments to Tom Curtis and Phillip Chantreau are directed toward the witholding of the availability of contraception for women in developing countries in favour of  constraining  the effects of affluence on ecosystems.  Whatever is or isn't the  problem with affluence I feel very strongly that the proposition advanced  by Tom Curtis that  restraining the effects of affluence on the ecosystem is a more sensible  strategy than preventing the third world from playing catch up on population growth.  That this should be considerd as a more sensible strategy than giving women the opportunity to control their own fertility is both a very sad and a very telling reflection of today's society.  .     

28922. Phil at 05:34 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @46. This book provides some evidence that after a certain level of affluence, benefits from further increases in well-being are minimal or detrimental. Obviously it somewhat difficult to measure "well being", the author uses a number of indicators including infant mortality, life expectancy, participation in education and "happiness" surveys.

       The indicators he picks follow a common pattern with a steep rise in the indicator with affluence, followed by a break where the relationship breaks down and becomes essentially flat. Countries at the inflexion point (i.e. those that get high measures of "well being" for relatively low GDP) are places like Costa Rica, Chile and Cuba. "Developed" nations such as the USA, UK, Western Europe and Austalia are all on the flat section.

       Obviously this work is somewhat "wooly" (it is economics after all :-) ), but if you are interested in these sorts of issues it might be worth trying to get hold of a copy.

28923. wili at 04:50 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis, I agree with much of what you say above, but when you opine at #19 "the loss of any species is a loss to us all; but it is not necessarilly a significant loss."

       May I suggest that we do not have adequate knowledge to determine what may or may not be a 'significant' loss. Even determining the criteria for such 'significance' would be difficult.

       While not a Catholic myself, I do also feel that the concep of 'sacred' is relevant when we are talking about species. Anything that is essentially irreplaceable should not lightly be done away with.

       Your reductionism wrt equating life with DNA also seems...crude, at best.

       Ccrickett at #11, when you mentioned the RC Church, my first interpretation was that you were talking about the site RealClimate and that I was about to be treated to a denialist screed about how 'warmism' is a religion. LOL.

28924. ryland at 04:33 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Phillipe Chantreau  Thanks for your comment.  I obviously do not communicate well.  The statements by Tom Curtis to which I was responding were made in response to my comment about contraception.  Tom Curtis wrote "I think it is fairly much an open and shut case that unrestrained affluence has a more harmfull impact on the global ecosystem than third world population growth; and that therefore if we must make a choice between the two, restraint of the affluence is a more sensible strategy to preserve that ecosystem than preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth at the same time as they are playing catch up in affluence.

       My response was that why will contraception prevent the third world playing catch up on population growth?    Presumably because without  contraception women are not in control of their fertility so their childbearing is less under their control than it is with contraception.. By stating it is more sensible  to restrain affluence rather than preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth Tom Curtis is clearly saying that denying contraception for the developing world is the more sensible option.  That is the analogy to which I was referring.  I stand by what I said which was that restraining affluence rather than making contraception available to women in the developing demeans the status of these women.  Tom Curtis is essentially saying never mind how many children they have due to lack of contraceptive control that's better than allowing unrestrained affluence.  That is an attitude with which I cannot concur.

28925. Wol at 04:32 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       At last - a discussion that mentions population growth!

       As the old Irish joke goes, " I wouldn't start from here." If acknowledgement of the effects of CO2 emissions had been general in the mid 1900s, not only would the population be a fraction of that of today, but much of the "stored sunlight", ie carbon would have still been locked in the ground. The game of sustainability catchup would have been a lot easier.

       But of course we are not starting from that position, and therefore are in a much more precarious position.

       Much of the Pope's encyclical is highly relevant but I agree that his continuing stance on population control renders it oxymoronic. If the planet is facing a future catastrophe on the climate change issue, surely reducing our numbers is the very first thing to address, even before carbon reduction?

       The only thing that all the politicians can talk about today on the economy front is "growth". Exponential growth, whether in population or consumption, is logically unsustainable: something needs to replace the assumption that capitalism must inevitably rely on growth.

       Abundant fossil fuels, capitalism and its necessary growth have built our present world and we have all benefitted from these, but it seems to me that a different paradigm needs to be globally accepted alongside curbs on population and emissions.

       But I'm not holding my breath.

28926. Elmwood at 04:17 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       not sure if there are any other catholic commenters, but wanted to point on some things about the church's view on family size. catholics are not fundamentalists like the duggars: we don't think people should breed like rabbits. the church advocates for access to education, food, water, health care and jobs for everyone, which would help reduce population growth as better health care and better education tends to limit family size. this is how the church wants to prevent overpopulation, though things it believes are good and fitting for creatures made in the "image of God".

       the church is not opposed to efforts to limit population growth, but doesn't accept abortion or contraceptives as legitimate means. i don't believe the church thinks the world is overpopulated yet but i could be wrong on that. the problem, it proposes, is with more affluent nations and corrupt governments preventing a just distribution of wealth across the globe.

       jrr tolkien was a devout catholic and his writings deeply reflect this. if you want to know what the church want's for humanity, envision the shire: the agrarian simple life, with good food and drink. mordor represents the evils of the industrialization of the world. 

28927. shoyemore at 03:31 AM on 20 June 2015
       Video: scientists simulate the climate of The Hobbit's Middle Earth
       

       Tom Curtis #7,

       Well imagined. Those Connemara mountains also have their ghosts. You can still come across the stone walls with the outline of cottages and fields where communities of people planted potatoes before the Great Famine of the 1840s. A morbid or vivid imagination could run wild, especially on a overcast & gloomy West of Ireland day.

       Personally, I love the area, but you could not miss echoes of the great calamity that once happened thereabouts.

       Tolkien had many influences that worked on his imagination, and (maybe) his brief visits to the Connemara did influence him.

28928. One Planet Only Forever at 01:37 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       SkepticalinCanada @ 23,

       If your comment is directed to me to provide a specific link for any of the points I have asked in my comment @24:

       For my second point about GDP rising faster than population choose whatever source you want for GDP history and population history. For the third point about the how long the earth will be habitable you could Google, or Yahoo, or Bing it and review the many evaluations offered (many of them including recent ones indicate hundreds of millions of years). The first and last points are simple rational thought points, no sources reuired other than personal consideration of the fundamanetals of what is going on.

       The points I asked about were an attempt to understand your understanding of points I consider to be fundamental to understanding what is going on. There is more than ample information available to anyone interested in independently investigating to understand them, no need for someone to write a paper about them. All that is required is open-minded curiosity, some personal effort, and a willingness to rationally consider all the available information in an effort to participate in developing a lasting better future for all life on this amazing planet.

       A for the question I know you are aching to have me ansqwer about the poulation that can live sustainably the answer remains, That Depends, on the way that the people are considered to be living: how humans fit into the robust diversity of life and how they treat each other is the key consideration, not a population number.
       - The more that humans live collectively in ways that can be a lasting part of the robust diversity of life the larger the number of humans who can live decently on this planet can be virtually forever.
       - The more that humans compete to be the ones who are able to live in ways that are not a lasting part of the robust diversity of life, the fewer humans can be living decently. There may be short bursts of perceptions of increased prosperity, but ultimately there would be a constantly reducing number and ultimately no future until there is a shift to living in ways that can be a lasting part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet.

       So the population number you ask me tobe specific about is most likely between 500 million and 10 billion, however, it can easily be lower if the way of living is more excessive, and can probably be more than 10 billion if human ingenuity and activity is properly motivated.

28929. luminous beauty at 00:19 AM on 20 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       " The later stages are all post grammatical, in terms of development."

       Not really.  post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.  Moral development is more a consequence of expanding the individual's circle of social relationships, not his/her ability to verbalize abstractions about morality.

       It is only the fifth stage, where contractual agreement on ethical conduct arises, that grammatical influence becomes dominant but not exclusive of 'sympathetic feeling'.  It is sentient creatures' universal experience of pain and pleasure and non-verbal empathy that is the engine of moral development, not one's capacity for abstract thought.  Rather, it is abstract thought that leads to much confusion about moral issues.  Observation of Down's Syndrome people should make this abundantly clear.

28930. KR at 00:14 AM on 20 June 2015
       CO2 effect is saturated
       

       A better discussion on this runs in a Comments section on the EIKE website (German climate denial group) where Harde's paper was discussed, in particular the comments by Dr. Gerhard Kramm - an expert on climate modeling. From his first comment (translated, emphasis added):

       Apparently not know Harde what he does. [...] The rivers of sensible and latent heat may be charged only according to local temperature and humidity distributions. Everything else is Blooming nonsense. [...] ...Harde temperatures...have nothing to do with reality.

       Enough said.

28931. Tom Curtis at 23:57 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Philippe Chantreau @38, I do not know to what extent third world representatives phrase it this way, but natural justice requires that limitations on fossil fuel use be based on per capita limits.  On an equal per capita basis, that means for most third world nations they would be able to increase their fossil fuel use per capita significantly before reaching the effective quota, while first world nations should reduce it much faster than they currently do.  China has recently reached the approximate per capita limit (and so should not further increased fossil fuel use on this basis).  The idea that limits should be based on 1990 national consumption, thereby freezing in the massive disparity in per capita fossil fuel use at that time amounts to a deliberate policy of enforced poverty for the third world over the next half century or so, just so that the first world can continue to enjoy the affluence based on its rapacious resource use which has created the problem in the first place.

28932. KR at 23:52 PM on 19 June 2015
       CO2 effect is saturated
       

       SeanO - Harde is a very good spectroscopist with an absolutely lousy climate model, see the discussion on Rabett Run: 

       http://rabett.blogspot.com.es/2011/03/toy-model.html

       The major problem is the use of a 'toy' model with only two atmospheric levels; as I understand it MODTRAN results don't start to stabilize until you use at least 20 levels - too few levels result in a poor approximation. It's like attempting numerical integration of a complex curve with only two intervals - use too few samples, and your answer will be wrong. 

       Two-level models are fine for demonstrating basic principles in intro classes, but insufficient for obtaining realistic answers. 

28933. Tom Curtis at 23:50 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @36, from Wikipedia:

       "During the European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically. The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829. Between 1700 and 1900, Europe’s population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.  Altogether, the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36% of the world's population in 1900.

       Population growth in the West became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation. Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century. The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006. The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010.

       The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's population declined significantly – from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012 – but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted.

       Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China's population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953, and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which was about 125 million in 1750, increased to 389 million in 1941; today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about 1.5 billion people. Java had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815; its present-day successor, Indonesia, now has a population of over 140 million. Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010. Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million."

       The key point is that European and US population growth started early because of the early development and deployment of key factors contributing to population growth.  In contrast, population growth in developing nations (particularly in Africa) started much later.  The result is that total population growth in Africa since 1500 (12 fold increase) is less than the global average (15 fold increase), less than that of Europe plus primarilly european descent colonies (13 fold increase) and much less than Asia (17 fold increase).  Of course these divisions do not divide between first world and third world with some primarilly european descent colonies (latin america) being third world, while some of the most rapid population growth in Asia has been in first world nations (Japan, South Korea, Singapore).  Arguing that excess population is a third world problem simply ignores history by only considering growth in the twentieth century when European growth rates were declining while African growth rates were accelerating.

       Looking at actual figures I have slightly overstated my point.  The third world is on the cusp of catching up with first world population growth historically considered.  But that still means that population reduction is not a strategy that should be primarilly aimed at the third world.  At worst it should be equally shared by first and third worlds and (considering relative resource use) should probably predominantly come from the first world if that is indeed your chosen strategy.  Thinking of it in terms of a third world problem looks to me like an attempt to shift the cost of tackling the ecological crisis onto the world's poorest and smallest contributors to that crisis.

28934. PhilippeChantreau at 23:47 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Ryland at 37, this is what Tom wrote:

       " I also think women should be in charge of their own fertility, sexuality (both at to type and activity) and body image."

       How do you interpret this as: ". Surely you can see that your comment implies women should not have this control and therefore must be subservient to the wishes of men in the number of chidlren they are allowed to have."

       I can't see how one can lead to the other. Can you explain how you interpret the first quote here into the second one? It's rather baffling.

28935. PhilippeChantreau at 23:43 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Ryland, re-read Tom Curtis' post. What he says is quite clear and does not seem to correspond to what you object; your post seems to consist mostly on grasping at specific words in his, and ascribing to them a meaning that their original context does not support.

       As for the devloping world's opinion, it would be good to provide references for your assertions. In my perception, the developing world's grievance is about making the same amount of effort as the developed world, whose unabated use of FF has caused the problem in the first place, and having to make that effort when they are in a much less favorable place to do so. It is entirely reasonable for the developed world to allow the countries that need it to continue use FF until they can transition.

28936. ryland at 23:39 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis I have been mulling over your comment  that women controlling their  own fertility will "prevent developing countries playing catch up on population growth".  My answer on that suggestion above is both incorrect and inadequate and on reflection I think you are right and that it will prevent catch up on population.    But what you seem to be suggesting is that women have no right to control their own fertility because it will, in your words, " prevent the third world playing catch up on population growth".  You seem to regard this as a deplorable situation foisted on the developing world by the developed world.  Surely you can see that your comment  implies women should not have this control and therefore must be subservient to the wishes of men in the number of chidlren they are allowed to have. If that is not what you mean would you explain what I have misunderstood 

28937. Tom Dayton at 23:13 PM on 19 June 2015
       Satellites show no warming in the troposphere
       

       Tamino has just now shown that RATPAC balloon thermometer data of the lower troposphere does not support a "pause" in warming over the past 18 years as fake skeptics claim RSS data do.

28938. ryland at 23:07 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis.  I am astounded at your comment "than preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth at the same time as they are playing catch up in affluence.'"  Surely you do not believe that enabling women to control their own fertility is "preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth" What an extraordinary suggestion More importantly you seem unaware that the "third world" population is not only greater than that of the developed world but is also growing very much more rapidly.  The one thing the developing world does not need to consider is a "catch up on population growth".  And as for the developing world "playing catch up on affluence" the most significant impact on that "catch up" will be the decline in the use of fossil fuels as mandated by the developed world.  As is well known, it is these fuels that have provided the cheap and reliable energy that has enabled the existence of the developed world.  It is little wonder that the developing world is not altogether enamoured of the proposal by developed countries that the use of these fuels should be terminated.

28939. Tom Curtis at 22:04 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @32, I am strongly in favour of contraception, including abortion (no later than the end of the first trimester except in the case of medical emergency and with due councelling).  I also think women should be in charge of their own fertility, sexuality (both at to type and activity) and body image.  I think reducing the Earth's population is a good thing*.  And, as previously noted I am not a Catholic.

       I also do not believe in using another persons agreement on one topic as a means to leverage their agreement on a different topic and think it is fairly much an open and shut case that unrestrained affluence has a more harmfull impact on the global ecosystem than third world population growth; and that therefore if we must make a choice between the two, restraint of the affluence is a more sensible strategy to preserve that ecosystem than preventing the third world playing catch up on population growth at the same time as they are playing catch up in affluence.

       I am not necessarilly arguing that the Pope's position is logical, but that it is more logical than the alternative presented by you and Krauss.  You should not mistake that for agreement with the Pope on all points.

        

       (* but not a necessary thing, and something that can be approached slowly for the most part by reducing birth rates by increasing affluence.)

28940. Tom Curtis at 21:49 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       SkepticalinCanada @20:

       "Sorry, I don't subscribe to such an anthropocentric point of view. Can you please provide the source for the comment that humans are the only species capable of moral choice? A quick search for "Are humans the only species capable of moral choice?" comes up with an interesting variety of articles."

       First, Johnathan Haidt writes:

       "The most influential definition of morality in psychology comes from Turiel (1983), who defined the moral domain as ‘‘prescriptive judgments of justice, rights, and welfare pertaining to how people ought to relate to each other’’ (p. 3). Turiel (2006) explicitly links this definition of morality to the long radition of liberal political theory from Kant, through John Stuart Mill, to John Rawls. Common to this tradition is a conception of persons as reasoning beings who have equal worth and who must always be treated as ends in themselves—never solely as means to other goals."

       When I say that humans are the only beings on this planet capable of moral choice, that is the definition I use.  I will return to this point later after discussing some other important issues.

       Haidt himself does not accept that definition.  Rather he defines morality, saying:

       "Moral systems are interlocking sets of values, practices, institutions, and evolved psychological mechanisms that work together to suppress or regulate selfishness and make social life possible."

       This definition is suspect from the start in that Haidt defines "moral" in those terms specifically to allow that certain moral like behaviours in animals should be considered "moral" in the proper sense.  In doing so he makes the definition so broad as to be useless.  By his definition, social behaviour in bees is "moral" because they are "evolved psychological mechanisms" that "suppress or regulate selfishness", or at least selfish behaviour even though they are purely instinctive, ie, require no consciousness and involve no more choice than that found in a cpu.  

       More importantly, the moral like behaviours in animals which he seeks to include under the definition of "moral" all relate to individual preference and cannot be generalized.  They represent, in effect, tastes rather than actions based on reasons.  As such they encapsulate no principles, and therefore cannot be extended to cover novel situations.  Nor can analysis of the principles be used to show inconsistency of action (such as the inconsistency between the Declaration of Independence and slave owning).  In short, such moral like behaviour permits no moral reasoning by itself, without which moral choice is impossible.  Specifically, the moral like behaviour consists of sympathetic concern; and for each animal it is simply a fact of the matter whether or not they have sympathetic concern for some other animal, and whether or not that sympathetic concern is stronger or weaker than the desire for a given good which conflicts with.  For humans that is typically not the case.  Instead we can reason abstractly to find principles underlying sympathetic concern (or more abstract moral principles) and reason to ensure that those principles we find are maximally coherent.  The resulting reasoning can then inform and change our sympathetic concern and enable us to act as though we had sympathetic concern even when it is weak or absent.  It enables us, in fact, to act morally (even if imperfectly so).

       To understand what a difference this makes, it is helpfull to have some idea of the stages of human moral development.  The crucial point to realise is that the sympathetic concern of animals does not even reach stage one of human moral development.  In human development, it is the level of moral development reached even in todlers whose linguistic development has not developed to include grammar (being limited to two word utterances).  The later stages are all post grammatical, in terms of development.  That is no surprise as they all involve some aspect of rule based behaviour, and the stating of rules is impossible without complex grammar.  Crucially, also, animal examples of language use have similarly been restricted to either one or two word utterances with a restricted vocabulary (ie, not grammar and no possibility of explicit rule based behaviour) with the exceptions of those animal "languages" like the language of bees which is more akin to visual art than to human languages.

       It should be noted that the stages of moral development are not universal across cultures (with some variation in the later stages in particular), and nor are ages of attainment universal within cultures or across cultures.  Up to stage 4, however, there is a remarkable consistency in stages and age of attainment across a very wide range of cultures and social conditions.  From my perspective, the these stages are only possible because of the factors that allow the attainment of a full and explicit moral reasoning (such as found in Kant).  Like the relationship between informal reasoning and logic, informal moral reasoning is only possible because of the factors that allow in humans the attainment of fully explicit moral reasoning and behaviour.  Thus it is no more a problem of my definition of "moral" that most stages of human morality are informal, and often inconsistent than it is a criticism of the definition of "logic" that most human reasoning is equally informal and often inconsistent.  But clearly (however we define terms) human moral reasoning is different in kind from that attainable by animals (whether we call the later "moral like" or stretch the definition of "moral" to include it in its scope).

       Finally, like the development of an aesthetic sense, the development of a true morality opens up whole new fields in which we can be helped or harmed.  Animals are like us in their ability to be harmed by simple physical cruelty, close confinement, bland or unappatising food and in countless other ways in which harms relate to purely sensory appreciation.  Some animals are also like us in being subject to emotional harms (and goods).  A strong case can be made for some animals that they are also subject to aesthetic harms and goods.  But no animal is subject to moral harms and goods.  They simply cannot appreciate slavery us unjust (as opposed to simply confining), and so it is no injustice to them to serve as beasts of burden (although depending on cases it may be cruel).  There are no animal bravehearts.  And for this reason out access to true morality makes us different.

       It is not more anthropocentrism to recognize this fact than it is to recognize that humans are the only technological species on Earth.

28941. Watchdog at 21:14 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       @20.. 
       
       I don't accept any "Anthropological View" unless we're speaking of:
       
       Q) Which species has affected Earth the most in terms of:
       Pollution, Science, Engineering & activities too numerous to mention? 
       
       Humans _are_ qualified to steward this planet!  Is not that actuality the general impetus behing the thrust of all who express concern with our BioSphere? 
       
       One of The main problems is connected with our BioSphere is: 
       
       It is. Because, which concerns the majority of Humans, i.e. the Health of our BioSphere,  there are and have been Humans - many in positions of great influence, as well as many others, who are not Abiding by the inner call to keep Earth's Atmosphere, Lands and Seas, Animals and Plants - Healthy.   Yeah, it sounds corny.. 
       
       Keeping this simple:  
       
       Look at Everything inside your homes.   Your monitor.   My words right here.  And what do you see?  ... The "fingerprints" of Humans.. !Everything..  almost..  

       "Only God, Omnipotent Indeed,
       Knew they were Mammals of a Different Breed."
       - Mayakovsky as quoted by Kosinski -

28942. ryland at 21:11 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis,  It is plain to most and certainly to me that a woman should be able to control her own fertility, a concept that still not acceptable to the Pope and thus to the Church of Rome.  Is this a concept with which you disagree?   That human reproduction should continue untrammelled, as you appear to be advocating by referring to the Pope's views as logical and dismissing Lawrence Krauss as an irrelevance is, of course, your right. I do hope your comment  "because it is assumed the population reduction will come primarilly from the third world (without attributing that tawdry motive to any particular person)"  is not directed at me. Your  comment sublimely ignores the fact that in the developed world most women, unless influenced  by religious factors, are and have been for many years, able to control their own fertility.   This is evidenced by the falling birthrate in the developed world, a fall, incidentally,  which is of concern to economists.  Ergo, population reduction in the developed world  has already occurred and is continuing.  Given that indisputable fact, it is clear that reductions can only come  "primarily from the third world"  (personally I don't use that term as I think developing world is a lot less derogatory and more accurate).  To argue that  reducing population growth is not a desirable outcome seems extremely unusual. Surely anything  that will lead to in a reduction in the destructive  influence of humans on  the  world is to be welcomed?  Isn't it?

28943. Tom Curtis at 20:39 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       SkepticalinCanada @21, given that I had previously said that "The loss of any species is a loss to us all, but the loss of the human species [would render the planet] devoid of moral - a tragedy of the highest magnitude", your comment @21 is a blatant out of context quotation.  I will grant that my poor editing (for which I apologise) left out a crucial clause in my statement, but the final phrase is clear enough that there was no misunderstanding my overall conclusion.

       @20,  it is irrelevant that " humans have abundantly demonstrated that they are not qualified to be the stewards of this planet" (whatever that means).  The simple fact is that they have the capability of acting in a way that devestates the planetary ecosystem, or they can act in a way that maintains a healthy planatery ecosystem.  We have that level of technical ability, and sufficient population with it so that our choices matter to the ecology.  Therefore we are stewards whether we will or no.  Further we are stewards whether we are responsible stewards, or instead choose to be bad stewards and fritter away the health of the global ecosystem in our never ending pursuit of more Big Macs.

       Certainly there is no other species that can step forward and take over that role so that we can simply pursue our self interest under the governance of that wiser species.

28944. Tom Curtis at 19:36 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @24, Lawrence Krauss is undoubtedly a distinguished scientist but his publication record is in cosmological physics.  It follows that on this matter he speaks with no more authority than does Pope Francis, or I.  Given that, it is incumbent on him to argue his case, something he singularly fails to do in the passage from which you quote.  Instead, he merely asserts the premise which enables his conclusion.  Further, unlike in climate science, there is no scientific consensus of relevant experts to which he can appeal on this issue.

       Now, consider the fact that 31% of the world's population uses 69% of the energy.  That means that if the top 31% of the world's population reduced their per capita energy use to 45% of current values, the other 69% of the population could lift their per capita energy use by 2.23% of current values thereby equalizing energy use per capita with no increase in global energy use.  Such a change is consistent with maintaining high standards of living and high life expectancies.  It is, however, certainly unnecessary for energy (where we can tackle emissions problems at lower economic cost to the wealthy by switching to renewables).  Similar equations apply to food consumption.  In the case of food consumption, unlike emissions, there is no suggestion we can reduce it to zero.  However, the reduced food consumption implied for the west in such an alteration would be positively beneficial in terms of health.  Further, given that 1/3rd of food currently goes to waste (as mentioned in the encyclical), that means we can feed the World's entire current population to an appropriate standard for good health while reducing food production by a significant percentage (though probably not the full third).  Given this, Krauss's statement is tenuous at best.

       Now, granted population growth would use up that excess so that given the equalization of food consumption, we may require the totality of current food production to feed the 10 billion - but we are currently producing that amount of food.  Ergo we can produce that amount of food and Krauss's claim that "A population of 10 billion by 2050 will likely be unsustainable at a level in which all humans have adequate food" is shown to depend on defining "adequate food" as "something at least approaching current western per capita food consumption" which is so far beyond "adequate" as to be a (very sick) joke.  (And I am no saint in that department.) 

       Worse for Krauss, total human water use is just a drop in the ocean compared to total global water.  As the restrictions on water are a restriction on fresh water only, given abundant cheap energy (ie, given that we can in fact tackle AGW) we would have in effect an unlimitted supply of water through desalination.  That in turn probably would solve any further food problems through the potential of greening deserts and hydroponic farming using artificial light.

       The last paragraph wanders a little from the point.  You said that:

       "By deflecting this issue of population increase by focusing on increased consumerism, the Pope has been somewhat specious".

       My claim was that "there is no doubt that Pope Francis' approach is far more logical than that of Ryland".  That is, if I am wrong about the possibility of tackling the world's ecological issues without sacrificing either affluence or requiring more than current efforts at reducing population; then Pope Francis' view point was far superior to the alternative that insists our focus should be on population reduction.  Population reduction is a blunt and limited tool only likely to be effective if the vast majority of the population reduction comes from Western nations.  I suspect it is popular in Western nations as a strategy, however, because it is assumed the population reduction will come primarilly from the third world (without attributing that tawdry motive to any particular person).

28945. Tom Curtis at 18:51 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ranyl @26, the one implies the other.

28946. Tom Curtis at 18:49 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       ryland @25, the full critique of carbon trading by Pope Francis is:

       "171. The strategy of buying and selling “carbon credits” can lead to a new form of speculation which would not help reduce the emission of polluting gases worldwide. This system seems to provide a quick and easy solution under the guise of a certain commitment to the environment, but in no way does it allow for the radical change which present circumstances require. Rather, it may simply become a ploy which permits maintaining the excessive consumption of some countries and sectors."

       Clearly his concern is that carbon trading will allow the wealthy nation to maintain a high emissions life style by purchasing carbon credits from poor nations, and in particular from rich elites in control of poor nations thereby reducing emissions by restricting the development opportunities of the poor.  On that basis, presumably he would object to carbon taxation systems which allow the purchase of overseas offsets but otherwise would not object to carbon taxation.  

       From anecdotal evidence I believe most commentors at SkS prefer carbon taxs to carbon markets and consequently it is no surprise if they feel no need to comment on Pope Francis expressing a similar preference.  Others, like myself, prefer carbon markets to carbon taxation but will accept carbon taxation as an adequate substitute, provided something is done.  That is, we refuse to make the good the enemy of the perfect.  Again, while disagreeing with Pope Francis, that gives me (and other like thinkers) no reason to argue against his stated opinion.

       Having said that, and as you bring it up, I think Pope Francis points out a genuine hazard of carbon credits without recognizing that there are genuine solutions to that problem.  In particular, it would be possible to establish treaty provisions for the international trade of carbon credits that ensure the trade is between nations rather than individual; restrict the use money recieved for carbon credits development, poverty relief, and provision of renewable energy; and contain suitable auditing to limit corruption.  Given such provisions Pope Francis' objections would likely be obviated, and without them I would also be dubious of the international trade in carbon credits.

28947. ranyl at 18:36 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Wonder what the actual amount of consumption is, that is actually sustainable?

       Whatever sustainable means?

28948. ranyl at 18:33 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       "humans are the only species capable of moral choice?"

       Maybe humans are the only being capable of making an immoral choice?

28949. ryland at 17:13 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Reading through the comments I'm rather surprised that there is no comment on point 3 which is headlined "He doesn't like carbon trading".  As this seems to be the deus ex machina to combat climate change for many politicians, will the Pope's negative stance  make carbon trading less attractive for politicians in some countries?

28950. ryland at 16:06 PM on 19 June 2015
       Eight things we learned from the pope's climate change encyclical
       

       Tom Curtis @10.  The article in Scientific American by Lawrence Krauss referred by John Hartz @13 states "A population of 10 billion by 2050 will likely be unsustainable at a level in which all humans have adequate food, water, medicine and security. Moreover, as this pope should particularly appreciate, the environmental problems that overpopulation creates also disproportionately afflict those in poor countries, where access to birth control and abortion is often limited. Ultimately, the surest road out of poverty is to empower women to control their own fertility. Doing so allows them to better provide for themselves and their children"

       This is in agreement with my comments @2 which you consider unrealistic.  It seems they may be less unrealistic than you believe

Prev  571  572  573  574  575  576  577  578  579  580  581  582  583  584  585  586  Next