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bozzza at 20:52 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Oh, I'm waiting for the QM stuff because I've always wanted to know how phase changes of solid to liquid correlate with chemical bonding propensities for change...
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bozzza at 20:45 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Regarding the pause,
Shouldn't the idea of phase change, ie. ice being transformed into liquid water, imply a necessary pause in global warming at some point?
** I cannot believe I'm the first to submit this question but if I am YAY ME !!!!
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scaddenp at 20:23 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Mattimus - ice age cycles and such like are changes in the forcings - orbitally induced change in distribution of incoming solar which set up complex feedbacks and change albedo - when CO2 is low enough.
I fully accept that there are is no way to predict the short term (<30 year) wobbles in surface temperature. No climate modellers is saying you can - only faux skeptics raising a strawman argument. The wobbles are caused by redistribution of heat around the planet. But the total heat content (and thus climate - the line that the wobbles occillilate around) are bound by the energy balance. To change that you have to change one of the forcings. The one that is moving is CO2. And guess what, you do the math and the forcing is the right size.
Of course you cant have certainty in science but conservation of energy is about as good as you can get. And so you demand a full inter-molecular model for cell mechanics before you would take your Dr's advice? The scientific consensus on any subject might not be right but it is the only rational guide to setting policy especially when it is strong.
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BBHY at 16:57 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Mattimus, not having all the exact answers to every detail of the climate doesn't mean that we don't know what is going on.
Imagine for a moment that we drive a car into a tree at 60 MPH. We do not have the science that can predict exactly every bend and crease that will occur in every piece of sheet metal of the car, but we know with a very high degree of certainty that the car will be smashed.
Likewise we cannot predict exactly every detail of climate change, but we know with a very high degree of certainty that CO2 absorbs infrared heat energy. This is physics that has been well established for 150 years. So, if we add molecules of CO2 to the atmosphere, those molecules will do what they do, which is to absorb heat energy. This increased heat will cause the atmosphere to warm up.
Humans have predicted that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause warming, then added CO2 to the atmosphere, then observed that it has indeed warmed as expected. Hand waving about "still an argument in the data on both sides" does not change the basic physics in the slightest little bit.
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Mattimus at 16:05 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
I apologize for not adding any studies or references to studies to my comments but I truly feel there is no lack of that on this site. I have no doubt that most if not all on this site have several studies that they can point to as a means to prove a point. My only point is this. If we're still arguing about it then we don't have it completely figured out yet. Honestly we're kidding ourselves (and limiting ourselves) if we think we do. I would never encourage anyone to dismiss what they believe in only that they encourage those who have a like or opposing view. It's fun to be here trying to figure stuff out as long as we realize that we're all trying to figure it out and none of us has "the answer". And don't think you're close just because the media in 2015 is on your side. It changes like the climate. :)
Moderator Response:[DB] As others have alluded to, just because the jigsaw puzzle of climate change has a piece missing does not mean that the picture of an apple is that of a platypus.
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Mattimus at 15:40 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
scaddenp, come on man the scientists on this planet have been talking about the 100K+ year cycles of this planet resulting in ice ages and complete melting of the polar caps. Are we disputing their science?
Moderator Response:[JH] Unless you provide documentation for your assertions, they are nothing more than your personal opinion which carries very lttle weight on this website. The tone of your comment is also not acceptable.
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PhilippeChantreau at 15:38 PM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
Ryland I note that you have not answered any of my questions. The SkS contributors are familiar with Spencer & Christy's published work. There is no reason to be surprised by Tom Dayton's statement. The work has passed peer-review and is of some interest to the overall understanding.
That work does not show, however, anything that deviates significantly from the rest of the body of litteature on similar sujects. The poblem that I, KR, and others (including Tom Dayton, I believe) have is with the vast abyss that separates their published work from their public statements, especially those made to Congress. Nothing in S&C publications allow to support the statements linked above. So I ask again, do you acknowledge that Christy made in congressional testimonies statements that are not supported by the weight of the scientific evidence, including his own research? If not, why not?
I did not see a response either to my other question about cherry-picking the year 1998, so I ask again: what are the "trends" starting from 1997 or 1999, or, for that matter 1996 and even 2000? Do they indicate the presence of a "hiatus"? How different are they from the "trend" that starts in 1998? What objective reasons based on statistics justify to select 1998?
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:20 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Mattimus,
I came to this site to learn more about this topic. And this site and its contributors, including the ones who respond in the comments, have been very helpful in adding to my understanding of the breadth and depth of the currently developed and continuing to be developed understanding of what is going on.
Though there are many different things you could choose to check out, the "Newcomers Start Here" button at the top of the main page should be the first stop.
However, what I found to be very compelling evidence that human impacts are significant is simply looking at the global average surface temperature data sets using the SkS Temperature Trend Calculator and reviewing the known change of CO2 in the atmosphere (NOAA presentation through this link is a good one). That pair of information reviewed objectively make it very difficult to expect to find another better explanation for what is known to have happened already other than "human impacts", particularly the burning of fossil fuels.
There are indeed many other factors, cyclical as well as random, that can and do temporarily skew the global average surface temperature values from the trend due to human impacts. However, those effects are part of what is now reasonably well understood with better understanding continuing to be developed.
I hope you enjoy exploring the wealth of information and understanding that is available through this resource.
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scaddenp at 15:19 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
And what informs that opinion? On the contrary, we have published science to quite the contrary. A gross level, for any planet in any solar system, surface temperature is described by the energy balance. It is function of incoming radiation, planetary albedo and atmospheric composition. A planet with atmosphere and oceans has internal variability from being unevenly heated.
However, there is no "cycle or mood" that can steadily increase the ocean heat content. Conservation of energy requires that energy come from somewhere. What cycle is creating energy? The observed change is consistant with change in GHG. Solar is not increasing. You can argue about climate sensitivity or the accuracy of models but you cant argue about conversation of energy.
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Mattimus at 15:18 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Do you understand what I mean that you're research is a perfect way for governments to have an excuse to pass laws to reduce carbon as they see fit as oppose to what is best for the planet?
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Mattimus at 15:11 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
As you suggested I want to stay on topic and want to ask the basic question if the problem is increased CO2. Why aren't we talking solutions instead of debating? Would anyone disagree with planting more trees to reduce excess CO2? Even taxpayer dollars? I just read an article about the Virgin Mobile CEO giving $25 million to the best idea of absorbing CO2. If we think there's an issue with CO2 why not come up with ideas to reduce it or keep it steady and see if it changes things?
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Mattimus at 15:00 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
I hope that we can admit that we are mere witnesses to a greater plan, even speaking just about our planet's cycles/moods. I am a 100% believer in the scientific method but climate science is such a vastly complicated system that we'd need models capable of surpassing the human mind to calculate all it's nuances. That's why we think computer simulations will get us there but we havent come close to mimicking minds via computers. That's the only reason I brought up QM
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scaddenp at 14:57 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
"The only piece I'm concerned with is focusing on how much it is caused by human activity."
Then that is off-topic here. Please choose the "Arguments" item on the menu bar and select an item from the "its not us" taxonomy to continue this discussion. What you want to discuss is attribution.
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scaddenp at 14:55 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Mattimus - I think we can also agree that there are non-climate scientists, and non-scientists who either misunderstand or distort science (or both) to claim there are arguments and uncertainties in climate science where none exist. This site is dedicated to presenting the actual science as an antidote to those. Without specifics about what arguments you mean it is difficult to assess what you mean.
If you think there is disagreements between climate scientists on whether the surface temperature is increasing, then please quote peer-reviewed research to support that.
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Mattimus at 14:51 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
I also wouldnt argue at all with the finding that the surface and ocean temperature are rising over the times discussed. The only piece I'm concerned with is focusing on how much it is caused by human activity. And my only concern in that realm is who that gives an excuse to intervene
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Tristan at 14:47 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
If your intent is to purport that climate science might radically change because physics radically changed, it won't get you too far. :) Climate science doesn't rest on any single orthodoxy. The evidence comes from vastly disparate sources using numerous ways to measure many different elements of the earth system.
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Tristan at 14:42 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
If you can relate QM to atmospheric temp measurements, sure. Otherwise there may be a more appropriate thread elsewhere on the site, depending on what exactly you want to discuss.
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Mattimus at 14:35 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Am I allowed to bring quantum mechanics into this discussion or is that off-topic? I'm asking seriously.
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KR at 14:29 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
Mattimus - I must admit to a bit of difficulty in parsing what you are asking. That said, the evidence to date is sufficient to convince the vast majority of scientists studying the subject (the oft-mentioned 97%), and there really isn't any data sufficently strong to consider rejecting AGW. Let alone in favor of any particular theory of the contradictory multitude offered up sans support by the 3%.
Our understanding continually evolves with additional data and examination. But overturning the entire structure of climate science, rather than detailing particulars, would require both quite extraordinary evidence for a new cause of climate change, and an entire series of data that rejected all the elements of our current understanding - spectroscopy, radiative physics, satellite observations, GHG fingerprints, sums of forcings, etc.
No such evidence has been presented, and arguments against AGW simply haven't held up.
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scaddenp at 14:27 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
I think we all agree that the current methods used to estimate the change in the surface temperature metric are, just that, estimates, and that improvements will continue to be made.
However, I dont think you can find a scientist publishing in the field of surface temperature estimation that will argue that temperature is doing anything other than continuing to rise. What "argument" did you have in mind? What change in interpretation?
The global surface temperature metric is extremely important to us - the surface is where we live - but it is not necessarily the best metric for assessing AGW. The energy imbalance is potentially better estimated from ocean temperature change especially now that Argo is deployed. Furthermore ice loss (and thus sealevel) are better integrators of long term climate change. Any argument there?
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KR at 14:19 PM on 10 June 2015The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
Philip Shehan - Sorry to say, but I really don't have the spare time to read through four pages of comments mostly consisting of denial. Some points of interest based on what you've shared:
- There are no 'step changes', that's basic thermodynamics. Over the last 60 years we've seen perhaps 0.7C of warming, while the oceans (93% of the energy entering/leaving the environment) have gained 25*1022 Joules of energy. Meaning a 0.1C step change that actually affected the longer term Earth energy balance (as opposed to just internal variation between ocean and surface temps) would require something like 3*1022 Joules of energy. Since there have been no nearby supernova, that hasn't happened, and claiming step changes is absurd.
- Cherry-picking a particular point (such as 1998) for your trend start based upon its nature as an extrema increases the need for statistical confidence by something like an order of magnitude, to requiring 99.5% confidence (depending on the variance stats of the data). Unless Singer can exclude the longer term warming trend with the required confidence level, he's just making noise about noise.
Furthermore, in the statistical theme, here's something I've said before.
Examining any time-span starting in the instrumental record and ending in the present:
- Over no period is warming statistically excluded.
- Over no period is the hypothesis of "no warming" statistically supported WRT a null hypothesis of the longer term trends.
- And over any period with enough data to actually separate the two hypotheses – there is warming.
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Mattimus at 14:03 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
That being said, and no discredit to anyone's research on this forum, can we agree that there is still an argument in the data on both sides and continual change in the interpretation of the data in regard to the extent of our limited ability to capture all data?
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rocketeer at 13:59 PM on 10 June 2015Factcheck: Is climate change ‘helping Africa’?
"Climate Change is HELPING Africa because greenhouse gases are bringing rain to areas that have suffered drought for decades." - Daily Mail Headline
So greenhouse gases do cause climate change? Or only when that is "good" climate change?
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Mattimus at 13:49 PM on 10 June 20152015 SkS News Bulletin #3: NOAA Updates Global Temperature Record
I'm completely new to this site but have found it to have the most research-based data information/links I've come across so far on the internet. It's the only reason I took the time to sign up.
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scaddenp at 12:54 PM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
I notice that UK still has issues with FF subsidies as well. eg here and here. Do people complaining about subsidies on renewables demand removal of these as well?
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Philip Shehan at 11:35 AM on 10 June 2015The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
Pardon the typos in my comments. dashing things off in beween dealing with more pressing matters.
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Philip Shehan at 11:26 AM on 10 June 2015The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
KR
Tree recent and rather lengthy analysies are on these pages. I post as
"Dr Brian" over there when discussing matters of science.I had to stop using my real name over there for a while for reasons which do them no credit and posted as Brian, my first given name - Philip is my middle name.
I started using the "Dr" for science matters when I became tired of responding to comments along the lines of "Clearly you know nothing about science/mathematics/statistics/ Popper/etc/etc/etc with "Well actually I do... This of course only annoys the “skeptics” more - "Oooooooh you're so arrogant." Which is another reason to keep using it.
But I digress.
I was challenged to refute an argument by David Whitehouse (sorry, not sure how to do links here):
The two items noted above are at
and
Any feedback on the validity or otherwise of my analysis appreciated.
Moderator Response:[PS] fixed links. Use the link button (looks like a chain) in the comment editor.
[RH] Shortened links that were breaking page formatting.
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scaddenp at 09:13 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Wind shapes up not too badly against all forms of generation (see levelized costs for all types here) including unsubsized coal and nuclear.
MacKay's analysis is based on looking at the amount of energy that is actually there, with virtually no regard to cost. A table on p107 shows, his estimates are far far higher than estimates from other 5 analysts. Far from unlimited potential, I would say MacKay's analysis sharply defines the limits. To say otherwise, then please produce the data.
While the electorate doesnt like subsidies, I am sure that electorate doesnt like the idea of paying of full cost for FF, including damages to those hurt by using it, either. Everyone wants energy as cheap as possible but sadly we have had 100 years or so of paying too little and you cant escape the change. To my mind, valuing visual impact so highly compared to other concerns (eg damage to great deltas from sea level rise) is morally suspect.
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Langham at 07:56 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
^ If you reread my post you will see I was including all forms of renewable energy in my comment on "paltry returns". I was trying to convey the political reality which governs the situation - most of the electorate are opposed to subsidies.
I think KR may have gone to a different source, but my point was that I would be unwilling to rely on the MacKay estimates - however the figures are all rather meaningless in the final analysis, as energy production will be consistent with whatever any government is prepared to invest in harvesting wave and tidal power.
The opportunities offered by the British coastline, together with improvements in technology that can be reasonably anticipated, mean the potential is almost unlimited - but it will only be achieved with very considerable financial investment.
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Tom Curtis at 07:47 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
dana, KR, for what it is worth, here is a comparison of UAH v6 to v5.6 and to RSS for the TLT pseudo channel:
As you can see, the major effective difference between v5.6 and v6 is that v6 much more closely matches RSS. That means it is not possible reject v6 as inadequate without also rejecting RSS as inadequate, ie, without effectively rejecting satellite temperature data altogether. While the appropriate caveates about satellite data are often ignored by deniers, I do not think rejecting it altogether is a tenable position.
The change in method of calculating the psueudo channel mentioned by KR changes the pseudo weighting profile, making it higher in altitude to that used in v 5.6 and by RSS:
This would have its greatest effect on measured temperatures in the tropics and least in polar regions due to differences in lapse rates between the two regions. Despite that, the largest difference in trends between UAH v5.6 and v6 is in the Arctic:
That combined with the greater sensitivity to ENSO displayed by v6 makes me suspect that primary difference is a reduced coverage of the Arctic to match that by RSS, but I have been unable to confirm that (gridded data being rather intractable on spreadsheets). It may be just a result of the change of diurnal drift corrections to effectively match those of RSS. Spencer's introduction of v6 takes no effort to explain the differences between measured temperatures between the two products which I consider very poor scientific practise. Hopefully the reviewers and editors of the paper introducing the changes will expect more of him.
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scaddenp at 07:38 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Given cost of marine energy (including offshore wind) subsidies on marine energy would have massively bigger than that on wind turbines. Given levelized cost of onshore wind, the "paltry return" comments seems a bit rich.
Rather than going for subsidies, paying full cost for carbon might help put costs for wind etc in perspective.
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scaddenp at 07:30 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Langham, I have looked through KR's links but for life of me, I cant see where your " the UK government's Dept of Energy and Climate Change estimates that wave and tidal stream energy can produce 20% of the UK's energy needs, with a further 8% coming from tidal lagoons" numbers are coming from. Is it really Energy or just electricity?
KR quotes onshore wind at 15% of 2020 target, but that target is only 15% of total energy needs (ie 2% of total energy). MacKay's estimate for tidal/wave comes to 242Twh and I cant see evidence that Energy ministry thinks it is bigger. Tidal power is predictable but it is most certainly not constant and absolutely must be backed up.
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Langham at 07:17 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
KR - No need to spell out NIMBY, it's been in common use for some time. However, it is a cheap point to make and I find critics of perceived 'Nimbyism' are frequently all too willing to inflict contrivances and nuisance on others that they would not willingly endure in their own back yard.
People tend to be more willing to tolerate developments for which they can perceive a sustainable economic rationale, but I think wind turbines, and to some extent all renewable energy schemes, have become tainted by their reliance on subsidies, and people then feel they are being made monkeys of - their tax money is being spent for a paltry return, with noise, health and amenity nuisances thrown in for free. You or I might say climate change is being abated, so there is a return even if it cannot be measured financially, but the general public tend to be sceptical if not outright disbelieving of such reasoning.
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KR at 06:49 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Langham - We'll have to see how UK policies and projects develop based on costs, lead times, and public opinion, I suppose. In the meantime, though, dealing with NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) attitudes are part and parcel of every energy project, no matter where they are located.
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Langham at 06:41 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Wave, tidal and offshore wind capacity will simply be a corrolary of whatever investment is made in the infrastructure. Unlike inland windfarms which are subject to unpredictable, unreliable and fluctuating weather patterns, tidal power is completely predictable and reliable, so there is no need for the back-up or storage systems that must be in place to generate electricity on windless days.
The UK has almost limitless potential to develop offshore systems. The costs are extremely high, naturally, but I detect a greater willingness by the present government to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects - like the Cardiff Bay scheme, recently approved - than in piecemeal windfarm projects across the countryside which merely tend to irritate country-dwellers for reasons that have already been well ventilated.
While not underestimating their impact on, say, the fisheries, I would contend that the visual impact of marine power is much less than that of onshore schemes.
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KR at 06:05 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
dana1981 - It's my understanding that V6 of the UAH data uses a completely new method for calculating lower tropospheric temperatures, resulting in lower LT trends. Dr. Spencer describes the differences as follows:
(1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) temperature trend from +0.140 C/decade to +0.114 C/decade (Dec. ’78 through Mar. ’15); and (2) the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution.
There are also differences in how they calculate diurnal drift adjustments for the satellites, particularly NOAA-15.
The previous method for LT temperatures used multiple angles with individual weighting functions, the new method uses a combination of multiple channels at a single location to derive LT temperatures - with a pre-processing step of averaging all view angles.
As such, I believe that V6 LT temperature estimates cannot be directly compared to V5.6 or earlier, as they are not the same computation at all. The LT code previously released is now outdated, and it remains to be seen when/if the current code will be released.
Given past actions by the UAH team (including the Spencer/Braswell 2011 low sensitivity debacle leading to editor resignations) I find myself a bit suspicious of the reduced LT trend; we'll have to wait and see how it stands up to examination. In the meantime it would seem imprudent to be making policy decisions on a new and untested methodology.
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Paul D at 05:54 AM on 10 June 2015Factcheck: Is climate change ‘helping Africa’?
Haven't farmers also been planting trees in the Sahel?
The Great Green WallCould this also have an impact on rain? -
KR at 05:53 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Langham - It's certainly possible that there are better estimates than MacKays. However:
Looking at what appears to be your source, and the linked UK Renewable Energy Roadmap; onshore wind is rated at 15% of needed energy by 2020; offshore wind may be several times that. But by 2020 wave and tidal power is projected to be only 1 TWh (with only 1.2 MW of tidal power deployed in a single project so far), while wind energy is projected at 24-32 TWh. As to your cost concerns, onshore wind has by far the lowest levelized costs, marine power the highest (Fig. 5 here) - you seem to have that completely reversed. Marine power has a lot of future potential, but it has long lead times and high incremental costs (i.e. large projects).
I suspect you may be disappointed at how matters progress, given the costs involved. And I dare say that shore dwellers will have strong opinons about how wave/tidal power generators will affect their landscapes as well...
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dana1981 at 05:49 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
Tom Curtis @16 - you're right, I'd forgotten that UAH are working on a new version of their data set, and that may be what Christy is referring to. Though it if does show no lower troposphere warming since 1998, I would seriously question its reliability.
As for Christy in general, as others have said, he's published some good (and some bad) research papers. The problem lies in his public comments, which often aren't supported by research, aren't accurate, and misinform a lot of peple. And in the media that amplifies that misinformation, and in the members of Congress who keep inviting him to testify despite (or because of) his repeatedly misleading testimony.
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Langham at 05:08 AM on 10 June 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
KR, Mackay's analysis is way out. The UK government's Dept of Energy and Climate Change estimates that wave and tidal stream energy can produce 20% of the UK's energy needs, with a further 8% coming from tidal lagoons. So almost 30% of UK energy needs can be met without a single windmill. Nor is this just hypothesis - a tidal steam system has been in operation in Northern Ireland since 2008. There are schemes planned for Cardiff Bay and elsewhere - there is enormous potential around the UK to harness the very high tidal range. I don't think it is unrealistic to expect that, in the long run, land-based wind turbines will eventually come to be seen for what they are - inefficient, very expensive white elephants. My fear is that by then, the British landscape will have been badly clighted by their intrusion.
Attitudes to the countryside may be different in the USA, perhaps as there is an abundance of empty space, but on this densely populated island our beautiful countryside is in perilously short supply.
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ubrew12 at 04:57 AM on 10 June 2015Factcheck: Is climate change ‘helping Africa’?
So, if you live in the Sahel, you get to live in the American MidWest, and if you live in the MidWest, you get to live in the Sahel (ucar world map of future pdsi). My, my, that is good news indeed...
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jgnfld at 04:51 AM on 10 June 2015Factcheck: Is climate change ‘helping Africa’?
Even if true it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good.
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shoyemore at 04:06 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
ryland, #22,
Professor Murray Salby was dismissed by MacQuarie University for "not fulfilling his contract obligations", and for repeated overseas travel when he had been asked to stay and teach. Salby would still be at the University, climate views and all, if he had played ball with the administration.
FWIW, it subsequently emerged that in 2005, the US National Science Foundation opened an investigation into Salby's federal funding arrangements and found that he had displayed "a pattern of deception [and] a lack of integrity" in his handling of federal grant money.
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Tom Dayton at 03:33 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
ryland, the problems with Spencer's and Christy's aggressive public statements include very vocal, horribly biased, unjustified and even outright wacky claims about what their own peer-reviewed publications say.
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ryland at 03:29 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
Thanks for your comments Tom Dayton and Simon Baines. I too was a tenured University professor at an Australian univesity where similar rules apply but not always as there have been professors notably Murray Salby who have been sacked for views not thought suitably concordant with mainstream climate science. Tom Dayton I was surprised at your statement "Both Christy and Spencer do some good work. In particular, what they write in their peer-reviewed publications tends to be reasonable" as most pieces commenting on these scientists rarely say any such thing. And Stephen Baines I thought your statement "For me, the problem is not Spencer and Christy per se, but rather the apparatus that exists to amplify their more contrarian views beyond their actual influence within the climate science community" showed far more insight than that shown bny many others who comment on Christy and Spencer.
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Stephen Baines at 02:57 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
Ryland...Tenure is there to protect free speech from exactly this kind of threat. You want free speech so there is a battle of ideas that eventually leads to the truth. There will always be contrarians in any field — they serve a useful purpose by keeping ideas alive that may still be useful or injecting new ideas. To silence such voices would have a chilling effect on discourse over all.
For me, the problem is not Spencer and Christy per se, but rather the apparatus that exists to amplify their more contrarian views beyond their actual influence within the climate science community. That amplification brings in a lot of voices that do not have perspective and context to understand information, and who consequently interpret information to match their own fears, predipositions and narrow vested interests and political aims.
It ends up distorting the debate entirely. It ends up being about who has the power rather than who has the most rational argument. Look at attempts to cut Geosciences funding within NSF with the current House and Senate budgets, for example.
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Tom Dayton at 02:38 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
ryland: Christy has tenure, so he can do and say nearly anything without any effects on his employment. Both Christy and Spencer do some good work. In particular, what they write in their peer-reviewed publications tends to be reasonable. It's what they write and say outside of those peer-reviewed publications that is the main problem. Contrast their behavior with that of RSS's Carl Mears.
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ryland at 02:15 AM on 10 June 2015What you need to know about the NOAA global warming faux pause paper
The general tenor of the comments about Dr Christy, UAH and RSS is hardly complimentary and in my opinion some, in particular that from Dana, come close to accusations of malpractice. Why therefore is Dr Christy and for that matter Dr Roy Spencer, still employed at UAH in a fairly high profile and senior position if he is as scietifically unsound as has been claimed? (http://www.skepticalscience.com/examining-christys-skepticism.html). Does UAH have particularly low standards for their climate scientists? It also seems surprising that Dr Christy is still able to publish in the peer reviewed literature if his reputation is as poor as is implied here.
Moderator Response:[PS] This site exists to debunk misinformation by fake skeptics. You have been pointed to the exactly what has been claimed and what the science actually says. What is your opinion?
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MA Rodger at 02:11 AM on 10 June 2015The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
KR @68.
It is here.
Of course the numpties there have yet to feed the period 1979-95 into the SkS trend calculator to demonstrate that even prior to the famous faux pause, the warming was also statistically insignificant, thus completing their myth-making.
I am myself employing the SkS trend calculator sparing with a numpty at CarbonBrief, one of may denialists that invaded the site to comment on their Karl et al. item. Mine insists most strongly that HadCRUT4 2003-2015.04 is almost statistically significant at 1%. There's always one!
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KR at 01:26 AM on 10 June 2015The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator
Philip Shehan - "Have been getting all sorts of grief over at Bolt..."
Link?
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