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KeefeandAmanda at 20:03 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
The article above mentions Steinman, Mann, and Miller (2015), but does not explicitly mention what I think is one of their most interesting contributions to the idea of multidecadal *internal* (rather than external) variability, which is the multidecadal NMO, which is more general than either the AMO or the PMO and thus I think should be the focus rather than either the AMO or PMO. (The PMO and NMO are explained further below.) The article links to the abstract of the paper (which requires payment to read), but does not link to that summary Mann wrote which contains a nice graph of the NMO for all to see. See here
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/climate-oscillations-and-the-global-warming-faux-pause/
for a good summary by Mann, this summary found also at the Huffington Post and Ecowatch sites. This article giving a nice graph of the NMO, and here is a link to the graph:
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2015-02-12-Sci15FigHuffPost.pngAs for the PMO and NMO: Mann says, "We focused on the Northern Hemisphere and the role played by two climate oscillations known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or "AMO" (a term I coined back in 2000, as recounted in my book The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars) and the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation or "PDO" (we a use a slightly different term-Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation or "PMO" to refer to the longer-term features of this apparent oscillation). The oscillation in Northern Hemisphere average temperatures (which we term the Northern Hemisphere Multidecadal Oscillation or "NMO") is found to result from a combination of the AMO and PMO.
Here is a very recent study the article above did not mention, A. Dai, Fyfe, Xie, and X. Dai (2015):
"Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability"
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2605.html
This article below contains quotes from the authors:
"Scripps Study Explains Recent Pause in Global Warming"
http://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2015/04/18/scripps-study-explains-recent-pause-in-global-warming/
Quotes:
"A National Science Foundation-supported study co-authored by Shang-Ping Xie, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, attributes nearly the entire difference between observations and simulations to a climate cycle known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)........"The new study extends this earlier modeling study by relying on observations that go back to 1920," said Xie, "We show that over nearly 100 years, the observed deviations in global mean temperature from the anthropogenically forced climate response are nearly all due to IPO."....... "Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course soon. Should that happen, we may see accelerated global warming rates in the coming decades," said Dai." -
Kevin C at 19:07 PM on 27 May 2015Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
However, as I noted in my email, the Denial101x tool is primarily a teaching tool, and I had to make a lot of simplifications to make both the downloads, and the calculations fast enough. Many stations have been omitted, and all have been reduced to annual data, which introduces its own bias. It is useful for demonstration purposes and some preliminary analysis, but for serious research you need to be using something like Clear Climate Code, or at the very least the SkS tool.
Here are some more resources:
A map of all stations with and without adjustments over the past 40 years (corresponding roughly to the period of dominant human warming):
The green crosses overlay the red ones, so here is a huge version of the same map for more detailed investigation.
Note that there is a general split in the need for adjustments between more/less stable and developed countries, as you would expect, with one very obvious exception: the US. The reasons are of course well known - the volunteer network and the resulting issues with Tobs and the introduction of MMTS.
Here's a nice comparison by Zeke Hausfather on the skill of the NOAA and Berkeley algorithms for reconstructing synthetic US data with realistic errors. The NOAA method does a great job in the US, however on the basis of my own work I think that over the rest of the world, while NOAA method generally improves things, the Berkeley adjustments are more robust. It is not clear whether this is just because Berkeley have more stations - we'll find out with the switch to GHCNv4.
Finally, here are some resources from the Denial101x bonus material:
- Ellis, W. (1890). On the difference produced in the mean temperature derived from daily maximum and minimum readings, as depending on the time at which the thermometers are read. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 16(76), 213-220. Link to abstract
- Menne, M. J., Williams Jr, C. N., & Vose, R. S. (2009). The US Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature data, version 2. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(7), 993-1007. Link to PDF
- Böhm, R., Jones, P. D., Hiebl, J., Frank, D., Brunetti, M., & Maugeri, M. (2010). The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperature series 1760–2007. Climatic Change, 101(1-2), 41-67. Link to PDF
- Brunet, M., Asin, J., Sigró, J., Bañón, M., García, F., Aguilar, E., ... & Jones, P. (2011). The minimization of the screen bias from ancient Western Mediterranean air temperature records: an exploratory statistical analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 31(12), 1879-1895. Link to paper
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shoyemore at 19:02 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
_rand15_
I worked for many years with material scientists in a commercial lab, and I learned never to let statistics and nice mathematical constructs trump physics, no matter how simple, well-fitting and tractable the models seemed.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" (George Box) and "Let models be simple, but not too simple" (Einstein) are good precepts to the modeller or analyst.
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shoyemore at 17:06 PM on 27 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
JIm #8,
I am familiar with Gilbert Hardin and The Tragedy of the Commons, and it is a great quote. But from a practical point of view you are not going to win the hearts and minds of middle-of-the-roaders by equating their concerns with individual selfishness and greed.
Scoring an own goal for the NIMBYs when the match is just starting is not going to get you a win.
Wind farms around the world are well supported locally when the community feels ownership and sees a benefit from the siting of the turbines. I want to see more wind farms just like you do, but I wonder if the wind energy companies should put more emphasis on the communities which will host them, and less on media PR.
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KR at 13:38 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
WRyan - Climate models are boundary condition solutions, where expected variation is contained within the range of possibilities. As a result, they do not predict exact trajectories of a particular set of initial conditions. We can expect the weather to vary within the range of climate model ensembles, if the predictions are good, but there is no way, really, to project exactly how internal variations like El Nino, volcanoes, the PDO, etc will track within that range.
Climate is about averages and ranges, not about predicting whether it will rain in Buffalo NY on May 9th twenty years from now. For short term solutions, weather models take very specific starting conditions and see how they might develop - with a useful range of about a week. But we can still predict that summers will be warmer than winters, and that 30 years from now average global temperatures will have risen something like 0.48C (0.16C/decade) +/- variations if nothing changes.
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scaddenp at 13:30 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
Wryan - in the short term, the temperature record is dominated by internal variability - ENSO in particular. This is chaotic behaviour that defies prediction even a few months in advance. Models have no skill at decadal level prediction because of this. Noone can tell you when PDO will switch from -ve to +ve. It is also extremely unclear what effect a warming world will have on ENSO, if any. However, the range of behaviour is bound by the long-term energy balance and this is what emerges from climate models.
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scaddenp at 13:22 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
Extracting a 66yt periodicy from 160 years of data is extremely fraught. And yes, I am pretty sure you will get around same value from output of climate models over same period since its source 1940s temperature depression.
Beware Von Neumann's elephant: "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."
You havent provided details but fitting 2 sines and a quadratic sounds like 9 parameters to me. (contant, linear and quadratic terms for the quadratic; amplitude, phase, and frequency for each sine).
I dont doubt that ocean cycles provide pseudo-periodic signal to the decadal noise in climate signal and that this is part of "slow down" - a series of La nina's while PDO negative. While interesting in terms of understanding causes of internal variability, they dont say much about climate.
As I understand it, it is not clear whether AMO index represents ocean noise or whether it is forced.
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Leto at 12:32 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
_rand15_ @ 9
"so whatever the reason for it, I'm confident it's really there."
What does that even mean? You are describing a shape, nothing more, nothing less. The shape you are decribing is really the shape that it is?
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WRyan at 12:08 PM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
For the shorter term predictions, is the problem with the accuracy and precision of the data or is it a problem with the precision of the climate models?
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_rand15_ at 10:28 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
@scaddenp: "You might also like to run EXACTLY the same curve-fitting analysis, (quadratic and 2 sine) but with say monthly Dow-Jones average and see how good the fit is."
That would be interesting, wouldn't it? I recall from many years ago that someone published an analysis of extinctions (of species) that purported to identify a particular periodicity. I think it was around 55 million years, if memory serves. The method was fairly complex, and of course the data was pretty sketchy.
Some years later, someone else tried repeating the work, and found that when fed any pseudo data that looked roughly like the real ones, even data with some other periodicity, that the original method always cranked out that 55 million year periodicity. Somehow the method just baked it in. I remember reading the second paper with a lot of enjoyment.
In this case, it's easy to show in several ways that there's a lot of power at the 66-year period, so whatever the reason for it, I'm confident it's really there. Is it "real", in the sense that somehow heat actually is sloshing around in the oceans with that period? II would seem to be generically plausible. ENSO has heat sloshing around with periods of a year or a few years. The PDO and AMO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) seem to be accepted phenomena, and they are generally speaking the right kind of thing (whatever may be driving them). The current indices of the PDO don't correlate too closely with the temperature anomaly record. The AMO correlates better, if I recall correctly from looking at it last year. (Actually, these indices are arrived at by subtracting off some version of the temperature trend from the data, then doing some variation of a principal component analysis. So using them to support the idea of a long-period heat sloshing may seem like a bit of circular reasoning, but at least I'm not the only one).
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Tom Curtis at 10:22 AM on 27 May 2015Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
daveburton @60, I had forgotten about that promise, so thankyou for reminding me. I will try to follow through shortly. In the meantime, Kevin C has published his far more usefull temperature tool. There is a brief introduction to the temperature tool here. The only thing my spreadsheet will hopefully add to the tool is the unadjusted ocean data, but we know their impacts already from Zeke Hausfather's graphs.
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_rand15_ at 10:08 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
@scaddenp: "This style of curve-fitting is common. Nicola Scafetta has published on this many times. The trouble is with quadratic and two sine curves you can fit any time series well.... Unless you have a physical basis for the curve, what are we to make of it?"
Yes, of course. Not only that, but the data are too noisy to be able to discriminate between variations on the theme, or even between very different models. Yet you can't necessarily fit just any time series with two sine waves (plus a slow, nearly DC component, in this case). This analysis didn't show me that the data *is* caused by a couple of sine waves. It's in no way adequate for that. It just showed that many of the really pronounced features of the temperature record can be reduced to just a few. That's usually worthwhile.As for physical causes, I don't know about that (I'll add: "yet"). It would be better to know. I'm a physicist and engineer, I always want physical causes. You know, it's something like the tides. The causes are well known - the modification in the Earth's iso-gravitational contours caused by the sun and the moon, approximated by a dipole moment - but the way in which they combine over time, together with the detailed shapes of the ocean basins and local undersea topography and weather lead to very complex details of the time series at any given point. The details of all this may not really be known, but the general picture still gives us quite a bit of understanding even so.
Maybe existing climate models actually crank out a 66-year oscillation. That would be interesting to know about, although I don't at the moment.
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scaddenp at 09:28 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
You might also like to run EXACTLY the same curve-fitting analysis, (quadratic and 2 sine) but with say monthly Dow-Jones average and see how good the fit is.
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scaddenp at 09:14 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
This style of curve-fitting is common. Nicola Scafetta has published on this many times. The trouble is with quadratic and two sine curves you can fit any time series well. See here for more statistical discussion and specifically on Scafetta here. Unless you have a physical basis for the curve, what are we to make of it?
Of course you can do curve fitting with the actual physical factors (eg Schmidt and Benestad, which was a counter to another Scafetta wild claim). Compare that with yours for same period. If you want to postulate some "undiscovered natural cycle", then where is the heat coming from (ie your proposal must respect conservation of energy), and what is your explanation for the measured forcings have so little effect if you think the natural cycle is important?
If you insist on curve fitting, then a better way to do it, is use part of the data set for training (eg first 1/2 to 3/4) and then see how well it predicts the rest of the dataset, or do it in reverse.
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_rand15_ at 07:46 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
I've read many discussions of the supposed slowdown or hiatus, including (of course) Tamino's posts. But no one I've read has discussed it in the rather different way I've been analyzing it. I'm in the middle of writing it up, but in short, if you look at the longest temperature record, the one from 1850 to present (e.g., HADCRUT4), you can see a number of features including a 30-year rise from about 1910 through 1940 and a 30-year flat period from about 1940 to 1970. I find that you can reproduce the entire 160+ year record surprisingly well with the sum of a smooth trend (e.g., quadratic fit), a 66.5-year sine wave, and a 21.3-year sine wave. Except for frequencies with period less than about 10 years, and so excluding ENSO and volcanos, this simple sum reproduces all the main features of the data. BTW, there is no trace of the sunspot cycle that I can find in the HADCRUT4 data.
A slowdown since around year 2000 is clear in this reconstruction, being the destructive interference of the sine waves combining with the trend, and is just ending.
Now, this may be only numerology, but the components are so few and so simple that the approach is attractive. One set of causes - two ongoing oscillations continuing for more than 150 years - interacting with a smooth, simple, concave upwards temperature trend. No need to invoke unpredictable variations in ENSO, no need to bring in special cases for other features, no mystery about the halt in warming between 1940 and 1970.
As to what these two sinusoids represent, that remains to be seen. But note that a current of only 1 km/day over a size typical of ocean basins would give times in the right ballpark. And you would think that the oceans would have to be involved in oscillations with such long periods.
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John Mason at 07:11 AM on 27 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
That's a darned good quote, Jim! Michael - thanks for the link!
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mdenison at 05:38 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
1. You make no mention of the change in forcing due to the reduction in CFC emissions. The impact of this on the rate of increase in anthropogenic forcings can be seen in the GISS forcing data. I would have expected an effect on the warming rate as large as those you report. Were you unable to find relevant literature that considered CFC's as a cause.
2. I also think that in making sense of the slowdown it is important to consider views like Taminos. I view from his pieces is that there is no slowdown unless you compare the trend using short time periods (15 years) instead of decent intervals of 30 years. With short intervals the apparant differences are meaningless due to inherent uncertainty and we must conclude that warming continues at the same pace.
A key point in making sense of the slowdown is that it is an illusion we inflict on ourselves by trying to see a pattern in short term data. If there has been a slowdown since 2000 we need to wait another 15 years to have a reasonable chance of detecting it. Past experience should warn us that the most likely explanation is that we seeing just another step of the down escalator. The explanations given above being reasons these steps can appear but they are not explanations of a real slowdown. -
Jim Hunt at 05:31 AM on 27 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
shoyemore - Just down the road from me in sunny South Devon there were plans for a twin turbine, community owned wind farm near Totnes. Here's what happened at the District Council planning meeting:
https://youtu.be/wZuENb3_Xlw
To quote a local Parish Counciller:Industrial devices provide to all the opponents of the turbines both their immediate surroundings and their enviable standard of living. Their televisions, toasters and hair dryers may not be crude designs, but we can be sure they've all been made somewhere over the horizon, out of sight. The electricity to activate these industrial devices also comes from power stations, over the horizon, out of sight. Some people here like it that way, defending their Arcadian idyll, none of whose practical comforts have been made anywhere near their green acres. Other people, I'm glad to say, see an opportunity to contribute back to the common good by using our local natural asset, abundant wind, to fuel the most benign and graceful technology ever devised to generate electric power.
In 1968 Garrett Hardin published an influential and now classic article entitled "The Tragedy of the Commons". This is the phenomenon that individual selfishness and greed in exploiting an asset common to all mankind eventually destroys that asset. We see this happening now in our exhaustion, over a few generations, of fossil fuel accumulated over millions of years. Now, the opponents of wind turbines are adding a further, bitter twist to this tragedy by opposing exploitation of an inexhaustible natural asset, the wind passing over our land.
In case you're wondering, the NIMBYs won the day.
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Phil at 05:17 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
@2 "Were global temps at the higher end of predictions at some point?"
This Sks post (by Dana) contains the following statement;
The observed trend for the period 1998–2012 is lower than most model simulations. But the observed trend for the period 1992–2006 is higher than most model simulations. Why weren't Curry and McIntyre decrying the models for underestimating global warming 6 years ago?
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Owenvsgenius at 04:45 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
Were global temps at the higher end of predictions at some point?
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shoyemore at 04:21 AM on 27 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
I live across the Irish Sea in a region which possibly has much the same problems. Out government is probably most green-friendly that the British Tories, and is slightly left-of-centre economically.
We also are developing wind energy, and sometimes I think the capitalists who are backing green developments get trapped into a mirror image of their fossil fuel counterparts - lobbying high level politicians and ignoring the people who will live near the new developments. It makes things oh-so-easy for their detractors (and there are many in the media) to misrepresent them.
I know wind farms can be moved, but for a houseowner it is not good news to see your single biggest lifetime investment lose some of its value overnight. They are entitled to feel that if they are helping to save the planet then the burden is not being shared equally.
Wind farm developers should do more outreach to local communities, with the promise of jobs for example, and perhaps an electricity subsidy for local people shold not be out of the question? These small communites, often isolated, could often do with a break.
PS In the very interesting chart above, I was gobsmacked to see that UKIP voters do not look favourably on capitalism! Perhaps they are so far-right they favour some sort of proto-fascist "corporate state"?
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daveburton at 02:40 AM on 27 May 2015Kevin Cowtan Debunks Christopher Booker's Temperature Conspiracy Theory
On Feb. 9, 2015, Tom Curtis (#34) wrote, "I intend to fully digitize both the GHCN3 and HadSST3 adjustments on a publicly available spreadsheet, as I think the results will be interesting independently of this discussion. That may, however, take a couple of weeks..."
Tom Curtis, did that ever get finished? Can you provide a link, please?
On Feb. 10, 2015, Kevin C (#38) wrote, "The GHCN tool is unfinished, frequently broken, and not ready for release, I'm not sure how you got the link. I've removed it now."
Has it been released yet, Dr. Cowtan?
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Jeffrey Davis at 01:50 AM on 27 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Tamino is skeptical about the reality of the "slowdown". Sketches of math.
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ranyl at 01:03 AM on 27 May 2015Making sense of the slowdown in global surface warming
Thanks interesting article and video.
It is going to be interesting to see where 2014, 2015, 2016 put things as the current El-Nino plays out.
Do wonder whether the global temperatures might migrate towards the higher end of predictions again?
The last 12 months was the hottest to date again (April 2014, May 2015).
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PhilippeChantreau at 00:39 AM on 27 May 2015There's no empirical evidence
Of course, there is also that pesky stubborn thing called physics. It always wins eventually.
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dickgroff at 00:34 AM on 27 May 2015There is no consensus
I think your graphic and other references to the “97%” needs to be changed to emphasize that that figure represents climate scientists who opined on human warming in papers that were included in the study. Otherwise it incorrectly implies that 97% of ALL scientists are included. (Your graphic states this but not prominently.)
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michael sweet at 23:59 PM on 26 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
The image of Florida shown above is produced using a satelite radar. This measures elevations to the tops of trees and buildings. I doubt Miami residents will stick around when they have to live on the roof of their houses. No area in or near Miami is higher than 8 meters above sea level. Sea level rise is much worse than the diagram. This map from Climate Central is probably more accurate. It is difficult to find accurate sea level rise maps.
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KR at 23:38 PM on 26 May 2015The Big Picture (2010 version)
James C Wilson - You're quite correct that the satellite offset discrepencies are larger than the imbalance derived from ocean heat content. However, the observed spectral changes (Harries et al 2001 and later works) are entirely consistent with about 1 w/m2, and empirically support the radiative models that also give that imbalance value. So it's not without reason to include the satellite measures as consilient evidence.
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Jim Hunt at 23:14 PM on 26 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Thanks for a most interesting article John, which covers many of my own highest hobby horses!
By some strange synchronicity I have mentioned the names of Amber Rudd and David Rose in my recent musings on assorted social media. My latest article on my Arctic themed blog even suggests a possible mechanism to explain where Bob Trueman gets his "scientific" ideas from:Why It’s So Hard to Convince Pseudo-Skeptics
Be sure to watch the video at the end. Here's a brief quotation from it:
In a new study that just came out a couple of months ago they showed a single digusting image, and one single digusting image and measuring the brain activity and how the person responded to that was sufficient to allow you to identify if somebody was conservative or liberal. With a single brain image. With 95% accuracy!
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DSL at 23:11 PM on 26 May 2015There's no empirical evidence
By the way, da, did you click on the "intermediate" tab at the top of the article?
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DSL at 23:10 PM on 26 May 2015There's no empirical evidence
da, what exactly is "natural temperature change"? What sort of mechanisms are involved?
The claim is based on the premise that CO2 absorbs/emits thermal infrared radiation. The evidence for that premise is abundant, and there's no challenge. Increase atmospheric CO2, and the surface-to-space path of thermal infrared lengthens in time/space. -
perseus at 22:19 PM on 26 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
The election result was a tragedy for climate science and victory for the politically vested interests of the press who partly orchestrated it (because advertising works).
Of any party the Conservatives are the least interested in the Green movement, even less than UKIP voters which really says something.
Moderator Response:[JH] Graphic width reduced to conform with website maximum of 500 pixels.
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da at 21:04 PM on 26 May 2015There's no empirical evidence
Myth has not been addressed.
Yes, CO2 is increasing. Yes, temperature is rising. This is a correlation and does not mean causation. The cause could also be natural temperature changes. What arguments are there to show that it is the CO2 and not natural temperature change causing the warming? For example: is temperature rising faster now than in earths history? If it is then it is likely to be man-made.
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Firgoose at 20:39 PM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #21
So while I don't believe peer reviewed literature should die,
SkS is the way to go on top of it.
Yes, there are plenty of blogs and sites dedicated to various sciences and their specialities but SkepticalScience's format of Question and Basic+Intermediate+Advanced Answer is a wonderful model. Incorporating it would be a fine strategy for scaling the ladders of quality, accessibility and appeal.
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jerusha at 20:20 PM on 26 May 2015Climate's changed before
This explains the climate changes in our county, i remember in my childhood weather was very predictable in seasons but nowadays this has changed completely.
Jerusha
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uncletimrob at 17:13 PM on 26 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Slightly off topic but the Murdoch empire has done nothing for balanced reporting on global warming in Australia - I wonder if the papers mentioned are some of his. This is just one article that points to data cherry picking by Murdoch.
www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-12/rupert-murdoch-misleading-north-south-poles/5604656
So I have no doubt that his writers/editors are picked because they agree with him. There is also little doubt that his network on Australia influenced voters to "axe the tax' ie the carbon tax at the last election.
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chriskoz at 15:11 PM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #21
Interesting article about peer reviewed articles from Singapore
Most memorable quotes from therein:
Up to 1.5 million peer-reviewed articles are published annually. However, many are ignored even within scientific communities - 82 per cent of articles published in humanities are not even cited once. No one ever refers to 32 per cent of the peer-reviewed articles in the social and 27 per cent in the natural sciences.
If a paper is cited, this does not imply it has actually been read. According to one estimate, only 20 per cent of papers cited have actually been read
If academics want to have an impact on policymakers and practitioners, they must consider popular media, which has been ignored by them.
So while I don't believe peer reviewed literature should die, SkS is the way to go on top of it.
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bozzza at 15:08 PM on 26 May 2015The Big Picture (2010 version)
The uncertainty priniciple underpins everything including attacks on climate science...
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James C Wilson at 14:55 PM on 26 May 2015The Big Picture (2010 version)
A small complaint about the discussion of the first figure:
If you click on the first figure it takes you to a discussion of that figure. That discussion states that "satellite measurements of energy imbalance (the difference between incoming and outgoing energy at the top of the atmosphere)," tell us about the energy imbalance. This is not correct. The discrepancies between the satellites are on the order of 6 w/m2 and the imbalance is about 1 w/m2. A key problem is that the measurement of the imbalance requires that the satellite be everywhere all at once and it can not. So the accuracy required is unobtainable. The estimates of the imbalance come from the measurement of the rate of increase in the heat stored in the oceans. (eg Keihl and Tremberth)
Chuck Wilson
Golden, CO, USA
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TomR at 11:48 AM on 26 May 2015Seeds of Time - preserving food resources in a hot future climate
Scientists write very little on how many humans will die this century and the next due to global warming and its climate change. Much more is written on the impacts of global warming on animal and plant diversity and extinction.
World food stores are at the 70-90 days of consumption level, while basic food prices are down from their peak several years ago. UN population projections have increased to 11 billion humans living on Earth in the year 2200. But, the agricultural yield per acre has actually been decreasing since 1980 for most crops. Soil fertility is also decreasing, not increasing. Seas will certainly flood many fertile river deltas. Many current agricultural regions are projected to become desert or semi-desert this century.
Global warming gases are already at extremely high levels. While science has dramatically lowered the cost of renewable energy, fossil fuel consumption keeps breaking records year after year. Granted that human efforts to stem global warming emissions seem to be increasing, much greater progress was made way back in 1990 with the Kyoto Protocol only for emissions to get much worse instead of better.
I think it is time for scientists to start making reasonable projections on future food prices and on human deaths due to starvation. While Hansen long ago suggested that the Earth may only be able to sustain 1 billion living humans, I have seen no scientific articles in years on this issue. While fossil-funded deniers would attack any truly pessimistic scientist projecting billions of deaths, e.g., 25 million or more per year, year after year, it would help wake people up. That's killing more people than World War II year after year after year.
Mike Berners-Lee in "How Bad Are Bananas" guesstimates that for every 150 tons of CO2 now put into the atmosphere, one more human will die this century. That means that the average American is killing one person every 10 years and that the average European and average Chinese is killing one person every 15-20 years. We need published research on this issue. We need to ourselves start living our lives as if our own pollution is actually killing other humans.
My person guide is that one mile driven in my Chevy Sonic emits 1# CO2 which deprives one other human somewhere this century of 1 hour of life. I have turned off my water heater, buy wind electricity, eat inexpensive vegan home cooked from scratch, given up flying, vacation locally, unheated bedroom, etc. As soon as I can buy a Nissan Leaf and install PV solar, I will. I have a moral duty to become carbon neutral as soon as humanly possible.
I think that evidence is clear that death is rushing at us. I think that scientists are afraid of being personally attacked for documenting the evidence for this. We need to wake up. Carbon neutral now, not in 2040!
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michael sweet at 11:20 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
Ryland,
The Gratten report claims that the previous method of rewarding solar installations was overly beneficial to solar installers. That is why more systems were installed than expected. The tariff scheme has been adjusted already. They say future incentives should be adjusted to reflect costs and benefits. They also say the the utilities are over incentivised to build more infrastructure. Although they do not quantitate the amount it is probably a lot more than the amount invested in solar.
They expect distributed solar to be the cheapest method of generating new power in most of Australia by 2020. It may be more cost effective to put the solar on businesses since they have bigger roofs.
So the Aussie government was not perfect in their scheme for solar installation. Did you expect the government to be perfect? As Tom says, the Gratten report does not consider at all the social cost of the carbon saved. They also do not count the decrease in everyones utility bills since decrease in demand leads to lower electricity rates to generators (on page 18 they say it is zero sum to the economy since generators make less money). Most consumers think it is a benefit when their rates go down.
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Tom Curtis at 08:26 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
ryland @17, your original claim @4 was that the article claimed "the cost to households of solar panels has outwibghed their benefits". I gave that its most natural interpretation which is that the costs of solar panels, on average, out weigh the benefits in households with solar panels - a claim that is not supported by the article and arguably misrepresents it. Even if we allow that the claim is that the cost of solar panels averaged across all australian households have outweighed the benefits, it still ignores appropriate context from the article in which the article points out that the equation on household solar is changing.
I will note that even on the more general interpretation, the Grattan Institute report does not make its case. In making its case it:
- Assumes that all government revenue comes from households so that the full value of direct subsidies for household solar to particular householders comes from all householders generally. The actual case is that a substantial portion of government revenue comes from taxes on business, which are not necessarilly passed on to householders in increased prices; and part of whose income comes from exports and hence is not a cost to householders under any interpretation. Costs to electricity suppliers from feed in tariffs could also be defrayed against businesses. Consequently, while on the issues the examine they can purport to have shown the costs of household solar exceed the benefits across the entire economy, they cannot accurately make that claim with regard to householders only.
- The report ignores the contribution of household solar to the Renewable Energy Target. They do make the case that non-household solar would have been a cheaper way to contribute to meeting that target; but that being the case the net cost of household solar to the economy is the difference between the cost of non-household solar and household solar. As the costs of meeting the RET are passed on to all electricity customers, that a portion of those costs are met by individual householders represents a saving for other customers not accounted for by the Grattan Institute.
- The report ignores the fact that new installers of household solar, and purchasers of houses with household solar already installed, and renters of houses with household solar already installed, do not get the high feed in tariffs that caused the initial poblems, but a price approximately equal to the wholesale cost of electricity. As renewable energy is sold at a premium value to householders, pricing household solar at the lower value wholesale value of non-renewable energy means that increasingly into the future, household solar will actually be providing a subsidy to purchasers of renewable energy from the grid.
- Finally, and most importantly, the report ignores completely the social cost of carbon, and therefore ignores the benefit of emissions reductions from household solar.
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michael sweet at 07:49 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
Ryland,
Your link is broken. Can you find a working link?
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ryland at 06:33 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
Moderator the URL is http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cost-of-house...ar-has-outweighed-benefits-grattan-institute-report-20150524-gh7
Skepticin Canada I quoted accurately and in turn you failed to mention
"it argues Australia could have reduced greenhouse gas emissions for much less money if governments had focused more on commercial and large-scale solar power, instead of household subsidies. "We've got the highest percentage of households in the world [with solar PV] because we've targeted our subsidies at households whereas other countries targeted the commercial sector," Grattan Institute energy program chief Tony Wood said. "We'd be better off if that was where we were going." The report calculates that the capital cost of installing and maintaining household solar systems since 2009 has been $18 billion, while their benefit in terms of greenhouse gas abatement and reduced conventional electricity generation has been $9 billion.
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ubrew12 at 05:01 AM on 26 May 2015Spoiled ballots, spoiled views: an election snapshot from Powys, Wales, UK
Also I'd point out to windpower detractors:
windmills = temporary
excess CO2 in atmosphere and nuclear waste = permanent
With the pace of technological development, the windmills are a useful stop-gap measure until we're all flying around in jet-packs and burning unobtanium in our levitating cars.
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Frank._Mueller at 04:56 AM on 26 May 2015More Carbon Dioxide is not necessarily good for plants.
I udnerstand the statement made in context is that CO2 cannot by itself give plants bulk. But in experiemnts that are reproducible one can see that the "bulk" is translated from the GHG gases particularly CO2. Taking a plant and measure the soil, and water used and substracting them from the plants wieght after it is grown one sees the bulk and the mass are not from the water and the soild as much as from the CO2. So to say "They get their bulk from more solid substances like water and organic matter. This organic matter comes from decomposing plants and animals or from man made fertilizers" is an incorrect statement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KZb2_vcNTg -
SkepticalinCanada at 02:47 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
@17. And from that same article that you have referenced:
"(The report) predicts it will soon become viable for households to install solar without government subsidies as the cost of panels falls and battery storage from companies like Tesla becomes more widely available in future."
So, to date the costs may have outweighed their benefits, but you failed to mention what is clearly in the quote, and not "tucked away out of sight." My original comment about significant misrepresentation stands.
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ryland at 02:06 AM on 26 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
Skepticalin Canada @ 13. Your comment "
"I did find that particular article, and was still puzzled by ryland's claim about the cost if that article was the basis for his claim. Saying that their costs have outweighed their benefits is, in my opinon, significant misrepresentation of that article and in fact other articles at the SMH"
is both incorrect and unfair
The piece to which I was referring was the piece by Lisa Cox on May 24 the headline of which was "Cost of household solar has outweighed benefits: Grattan Institute report." Fair criticism is obviously perfectly correct but your comment is manifestly wrong. I fail to understand why your comment was made as you state you have read thre articleyou did read the article. The heasdlinde was not tucked away out odf sight.
Moderator Response:[JH] For future reference, please provide links to articles and other materials that you include in a comment.
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DSL at 23:52 PM on 25 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Actually, Cowpuncher, what Curry is doing--trying to turn uncertainty into a commodity--is feeding political action that seeks to end government-funded climate science. It's not really shooting herself in the foot, since she'll have plenty of private funding sources when she takes her early retirement.
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Eric Grimsrud at 23:28 PM on 25 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
@26 and 28
Bozzza, Perhaps I was not clear enough. We know why sea levels have risen since 20,000 years ago - it is due to a transition from a glacial to an interglacial period.
My question is why Christy would claim that sea level would continue to rise today and into the future due to natural causes. We are now well out of an interglacial period and, I thought, in a stable interglacial period with no or very little change in sea levels. If any natural change would be in the works for the future I thought sea levels might actually be decreasing somewhat in the immediate future as we begin to head back towards the next glacial period.
So I still don't understand why Christy would claim that sea levels will be rising due to natural causes in the future. The only explanation I can think of is that Christy suspects that sea levels will indeed rise due to Man's effect on the GHGs and, therefore, is claiming natural forces will do the same - but has no good reason to make that claim.Thus, if there is such a reason for Christy's claim, perhaps someone could point out what that is. Otherwise, it would appear that he is misinforming the members of this congressional hearing.
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