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Dikran Marsupial at 05:34 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels, calling people names is not doing you any favours. It is also likely to result in the mdoerators deleting your post [ah, I see that has already happened], so if you want to make a substantive point, make it politely. Please read the comments policy and adhere to it. We get a fair few visitors here who deliberately try and get themselved banned, so they can whine about it elsewhere. That is not very mature behaviour, so please demonstrate that you are above that sort of thing.
Moderator Response:[RH] Agreed. The only reason nickels is getting deleted is for violations of commenting policy. No problem with him presenting a dissenting position, it just has to be done in a way that conforms with policy.
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Dikran Marsupial at 05:26 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
nickels wrote "I don't feel like having huge amounts of my tax dollars chasing other peoples 'common sense'."
sorry, whether science is correct is not dependent on your views of taxation (the causal relation should lie in the other direction).
"I have a PhD in mathatics."and "I challenge your science to study the Verification and Validation methods used commonly in engineering."
I have a PhD in engineering; the methods used in climate models are used in computational fluid dynamics in a wide variety of engineering industries, for example aviation, motor racing, ship design. All without mathematical proof of the nature that you are asking for.
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MA Rodger at 05:08 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
We appear to,have 2 nickels running down two different threads with the same arguments, this thread and the one here*.
nickels @89.
You tell us elsewhere* that you hold a PhD in Maths. You tell us here that "Mathematically it is my understanding that the entire solar system could actually go infiite." I find these two statements uncongruous, unless you are not being serious. It is akin to an aerodynamics engineer pronouncing that a bumble bee theoretically cannot fly.
Indeed, apart from demanding/requesting a mathematical proof for the findings of climate models, your posts are entirely vacuous, a situation that is not compatable with your stated background.
Of course it may be part of your nature that you present an aggressive posture here, but buddy I don't give a dime.
(By the way, to call the structural calculations of a building's design a "proof" in the mathematical sense is very poor use of the english language.)
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Dikran Marsupial at 03:59 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
O.K., so nickels is rather impolite!
My question regarding planetary orbits was not baiting. It was an attempt to make a serious point. I'm sure that most of us are happy with the idea that planetary orbits can be predicted, however we can't write down an equation for the solar system that gives the orbits of the planets, i.e. we can't have proof of their orbits, and we have to solve them numerically. Does that mean planetary scientists are not rigorous? No. Does that mean that we should not accept their predictions of planetary orbits? No, of course not.
As Einstein said "" ... as far as the propositions of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.".
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Tom Dayton at 03:57 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
nickels, climate models have been validated (using the proper definition of validation, after reversing your definitions) empirically, as is explained thoroughly in the original post at the top of this comment thread. (Be sure to read Intermediate tabbed pane, too, and the cited peer-reviewed publications.) Your challenge to the "science" (sic) "to study the Verification and Validation methods used commonly in engineering" is odd, because climate modelers in fact do use V&V methods commonly used in engineering. In contrast, you seem to believe erroneously that V&V in engineering relies heavily or even exclusively on mathematical proof. Your statement "You would get run out of engineering in a minute claiming that you think a building will stand because you ran a few models and everything looked good" is correct, but your implication that bridge designers instead use only mathematical proof to convince themselves that it will stand, is wildly wrong.
My job largely is V&V of spacecraft software and some hardware and certainly their interaction, of both software used on the ground to monitor and control spacecraft, and software that runs on the spacecraft itself. Mathematical proof is only a tiny portion of that V&V.
A good place to start learning about V&V of climate models is at Steve Easterbrook's blog Serendipity. He has a good recent video of a TED talk (you should read the text surrounding that video on his blog), a short but good description of V&V, a short description of massive and thorough comparisons of the outputs of 24 climate models, an explanation of why some formal methods cannot be applied to climate models but Agile-like methods can, and especially relevant for you is his post Do Climate Models Need Independent Verification and Validation? You would benefit from reading other posts of his that you can find by using his blog's Search field to look for "verification" or "validation."
Also useful for you to read is Tamsin Edwards's series of four short blog posts the links to which are near the top of her post Possible Futures.
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Dikran Marsupial at 03:30 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels,
Firstly, I notice that you didn't answer my question. Scientific discussion relies on both parties being interested in seeking the truth, and this in turn requires an honest attempt to give a direct answer to direct questions and an absence of evasion.
I know plenty of mathematicians (I am married to one), and I don't know any that are so rigid that they would ignore any statement of something that was abundently obvious regarding the real world. Very obvious things do turn out to be incorrect (actually rather rarely), but that does not mean that it is rational to ignore them. Proofs turn out to be incorrect occasionally as well.
"My literature request is sincere."
my attempts to explain a truth of applied mathematics to you is equally sincere, it would help if you were to give direct answers to my questions.
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Tom Dayton at 03:22 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
nickels, you have reversed the definitions of verification and validation. That is suprising given your self-claimed expertise.
Moderator Response:[JH] Nickels is already skating on the thin ice of sloganeering and his haughty attitude is duly noted. His future posts will be closely monitored for compliance with the SkS Comments Policy.
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nickels at 03:21 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
@DM
If there is one thing that my mathematical training has taught me, it is to ignore any statement like 'abudnantly obvious'. Its a cultural different between mathematicians and climate guys. Very obvious things turn out to be very wrong all too often.
And I also am not into 'proof by extrapolation of argument', so I don't want to take the planet bait. Mathematically it is my understanding that the entire solar system could actually go infiite.
My literature request is sincere. Stability of computing averages is actually possible to make a decent mathematical argument towards. This is part of my mathematical background.
Which is why I have to produce literature requests whenever I talk to climate guys....
Moderator Response:[JH] Your response to Dirkan's question about the pendulum is an artful dooge. Dikran also posed a legitimate question to you about planetary orbits. Your repsonse suggests that you are not here to engage in a civil conversation. We have little patience for concern trolling.
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jja at 03:19 AM on 10 June 2014New Video: Meltwater Pulse 2B
It is clear now that the current IPCC sea level rise projections have significantly underestimated what will be. What Rignot did not show was how continual warming and surface wind dynamics will further exacerbate the mass loss trend, though he alludes to it when mentioning the less-studied east Antarctic ice shelf.
These are all connected and feed back to each other, as does the PIOMAS analysis which projects total summer ice loss of Arctic sea ice within the next 20 years. Sks has done a great job showing how the current IPCC models have overestimated arctic sea ice persistance by 30 years or more.
While it is obscure, the loss of arctic sea ice will lead to a significant see-saw effect on WAIS mass loss rates, combine this with this recent tipping point analysis and the 30-year acceleration in permafrost methane release and our current Integrated Assessment Models have dramatically underestimated the social cost of carbon. -
Dikran Marsupial at 03:14 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels, O.K., I am moderately surprised that you are unwilling to accept that the electromagnet will cause the double pendulum to be closer to the electromagnet on average than it would otherwise be, given that it is abundently obvious that this is true (consider the case as the magnetic field becomes very large). However, at least your position is consistent.
So, do you accept that we can predict planetary orbits?
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nickels at 03:11 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
@DM
I would be happy to read a paper that has some proof along these lines (would actually be interested in literature in this area).
Even if there isn't a proof, a numerical study with serious attempts at aposteriori error control would be interesting...
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Dikran Marsupial at 02:55 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels, do you accept that the statistical properties of the double pendulum in a magnetic field are non-chaotic?
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nickels at 02:39 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
@DM
Understood. And I am certainly not saying climate models are wrong or unuseful or anything of the sort.
But I refuse to listen to arguement about how 'we can predict averages' without asking for a proof, because the statement is simply not accurate. That is all.
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Dikran Marsupial at 02:33 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels, the kind of proof you are asking for us unavailable in many fields, but that does not stop similar results being used in a wide range of others, which is why we have computational fluid dynamics, rather than mathematical fluid dynamics. There are many problems that you can only solve by simulation, rather than in closed form. This does not prevent them from being rigorous, many excellent mathematicians (some of them in the same building as me) work on fluid dynamics (and indeed climate modelling).
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nickels at 02:19 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
@KR
And by the way, I am making honest, serious arguments about V&V.
You are engaging in non-arguments and strict scholastic bullying. Just for the record, you will convince no one with that approach, only distance them further from engaging in your cause. Good luck. I will not respond to you after this.
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nickels at 02:16 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
@DSL
Your science is not going to get very far (and hasn't) when you shoot down people that point the issues with your scientific method rather than take them seriously and consider how to address them.
Best of luck.
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nickels at 02:13 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
@DM
I understand your argument, but this is not a proof. And it does not extrapolate to more complex models. I'm not saying you are wrong, I am just claiming that this sort of reasoning is not rigorous. In math we call this 'hand waving'.
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nickels at 02:12 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
Validation:
Your model is actually correctly solving the equations it claims. (I have worked with the CESM and there has never been a focus on this. Honestly, the fortran codes are so huge and spagetti'fied that this is a serious issue. Numerical error in integration, adaptive integration, aposteriori error analysis would be apropo. At Sandia there was intense focus on this for the engineering codes).
Verification:
Does the code and the model actually model the physics. This is intensely difficult for climate since there are a myriad of physical processes that are parameterised in these codes. No first principles. It is not clear whether these parameterizations are relevant in future states.
Its a hard problem. Climate science owes the world some major V&V investment if they want the answer to this forum's topic to be 'quite reliable'.
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DSL at 02:09 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
KR to nickels: "You have presented exactly zero support for your contrary claims."
Also known as "handwaving."
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wili at 02:08 AM on 10 June 2014New Video: Meltwater Pulse 2B
It's the other end of the world, but about 10 cubic kilometers of ice seem to have just fallen off of Jakobshavn. This is a very major calving event! Reported on here:
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/06/06/ten-cubic-kilometers-of-ice-lost-from-jakobshavn-glacier-in-less-than-one-month/#commentsand discussed here:http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.200.html
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KR at 02:04 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels - Also see the shifting of Burden of Proof fallacy, directly relevant to your demands in light of demonstrated model skills.
The case for models and for predicting climate has already been made and presented in the literature. You have presented exactly zero support for your contrary claims.
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nickels at 02:03 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
@ Dikran Marsupial
I have a PhD in mathatics. examples and common sense are very often wrong. I don't feel like having huge amounts of my tax dollars chasing other peoples 'common sense'.
And nobody else does, which is why climate science is not more important.
I challenge your science to study the Verification and Validation methods used commonly in engineering. Climate owes the public and the scientific community intense focus on this issue.
A proof even for a very simple model is unlikely. But I (am many many people, scientists and not) have a philosophical difference with your community over the comment sense argument. In math and engineering we call this 'hand waving'.
Climate models are important, but not rigorous.
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KR at 01:58 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
nickels - I have responded on the appropriate thread.
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wili at 01:58 AM on 10 June 2014New Video: Meltwater Pulse 2B
Thanks for this great coverage of this important story, especially for emphasizing that the 200+ year timeline much mentioned in most sources assumes a linear development, which is not likely in a feedback system.
Here's an essay on the history of some of these issues, along with a short video: https://etherwave.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/a-historical-primer-on-wais-collapse-part-1-early-history/#comment-7466
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Dikran Marsupial at 01:57 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
"Where is the mathematical proof that averages can be predicted in the climate model?"
This comment shows a lack of understanging of science. You can't prove lots of empirical truths in science, but that doesn't mean they are not true. Similar arguments could be made of much statistical physics, and they would be equally poor arguments.
See my post on the other article for an example of a system that is obviously chaotic, but where common sense ought to be enough to show that its statistical properties are not chaotic. -
KR at 01:57 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels - Chaos is involved in initial value problems such as predicting the weather, and for that reason we cannot determine the precise temperature or precipitation for a region several weeks in the future.
Climate is a boundary condition, and we use boundaries to quite accurately predict that summer will average warmer than winter. More precisely, that boundary systems such as climate are thermodynamically trend-stationary (tending to return to a balance of input/output) in their mean values.
Armwaving and arguments from incredulity on your part do not represent a disproof.
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nickels at 01:54 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
@KR
And by the way, the topic of this thread is 'Are climate models accurate.' My comments apply. So please do not point me back to dated and sophmoristic articles and say I should comment there. My comments here are completely relevant.
It is exacly this type of scholastic bullying that climate gate exposed and a big part of the reason that climate science lost a huge amount of its credibility a few years back...
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Dikran Marsupial at 01:51 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
nickels, lets make it even simpler (a case where the physics is easily visualised). The movement of a double pendulum is clearly chaotic (as it is deterministic, but the precise path of the pendulum is heavily dependent on the initial conditions).
now consider placing an electromagnet to one side of the (iron) double pendulum. As we increase the current through the electromagnet, the position of the pendulum will become increasingly biased to that side. Now we can't predict the exact path of the pendulum, but we could simulate an ensemble of double pendulums, and apply the same magnetic field to each and take the average position of all of them as an indication of the effect of the elecrtomagnet on the pendulum.
This is effectively what we are doing with climate models (but with much more simple physics). The force applied by the electromagnet corresponds to radiative forcing. The unforced movement of the pendulum corresponds to the unforced climate change (i.e. weather). The statistical behaviour (average position) of the pendulums corresponds to the forced climate change (which is what we want to estimate).So with the double pendulm, its movement is chaotic, but the statistical properties of that movement is deterministic and non-chaotic.
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nickels at 01:49 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
@KR
Don't get me wrong, Im not dissing climate models. They represent our best guess at future climate. I would argue that they are -not- unbiased, but still a decent guess.
But please quit presenting your playing around with models (which is what you are doing from an engineering perspective) with hard, accurate science. You would get run out of engineering in a minute claiming that you think a building will stand because you ran a few models and everything looked good.
Rigor and experimentation are not the same thing.
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KR at 01:48 AM on 10 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
Tom Curtis - Tol started complaining about Cook et al the day it was published, for example tweeting here and especially here on May 18 2013 - stating "@ezraklein for starters, because that opening 97% is a load of nonsense @maliniw90th". That was well before poptech made his blog post with cherrypicked objections from authors who hadn't responded to the Cook et al queries regarding self-evaluation, and who didn't seem to understand the difference between papers and abstracts.
Tol has spent the intervening time searching for a reason, _any_ reason, to support his initial reaction. And whenever one set of objections were shown to be nonsense, moving onto another and another and...
He's done a terrible job of it.
My personal opinion (just that) regarding his vendetta is an ideological objection on his part to governmental approaches to dealing with AGW, one not based on the science, coupled with an (ahem) abrasive approach to those he disagrees with.
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nickels at 01:41 AM on 10 June 2014Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
This is just a bunch of heuristic chatter.
Lets make it simple. Forget climate. Prove mathematically to me that you can predict averages based on the simple Lorenz equations.
You will be famous.
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nickels at 01:39 AM on 10 June 2014Models are unreliable
@KR Nice words, but that is all they are.
And nice article on chaos, but I already knew all that.
Where is the mathematical proof that averages can be predicted in the climate model? Words are cool and I am sure they make you feel better but they prove nothing.
Show me the proof. An engineer would have to prove his building will stand. Climate scientists wave their hands point to an article on chaos and predict all kinds of nonesense.
Again, if you want anyone to believe the climate predictions, a mathematical proof that your models can accurately predict averages should be the topic of every PhD thesis in the business.
Oh, and by the way, where is the proof?
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Leland Palmer at 22:41 PM on 9 June 2014Rapid climate changes more deadly than asteroid impacts in Earth’s past – study shows.
One way that the high salt hydrates could be important, though, is that as the local methane oxidation capacity of the oceans is exceeded, basin scale acidification and anoxia are predicted to occur, by the IMPACTS group modeling of Reagan et al.
And, as basin scale anoxia and acidification occurs, more methane is transported to the atmosphere, adding to warming from direct and indirect atmospheric chemistry effects of methane, according to the modeling of Isaksen, et al.
In this scenario, the high salt hydrates could lead to local methane emission hotspots, like for example the Hydrate Ridge and Cascadia Margin area of the Pacific Northwest, off the coast of Washington and Oregon. These areas are known to contain high salt hydrates, and have plumes of methane and acidified water from anerobic oxidation of methane a kilometer or two wide extending into the bottom water:
The authors of this 1999 paper did not know about the high salt hydrates, apparently, and proposed a different mechanism for methane release. But they did document the anoxic and acidified plumes around Hydrate Ridge, and calculated that the oxygen demand from the hydrates is a thousand times or more the demand from an equivalent area of sea bottom.
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John Hartz at 13:55 PM on 9 June 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #23
The cartoon is by Andrei Popov (Russia). None of the nine cartoons has dialogue embedded in them.
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DSL at 13:46 PM on 9 June 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #23
Jenna, he's trying to nail down sea level rise. It could use a word or two to give it direction. Could be an oblique reference to NC's state legislature, or it could simply be a representation of wishful thinking.
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jenna at 13:27 PM on 9 June 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #23
Hey, can someone please explain the cartoon with the carpenter guy? I'm not getting it.
thnx,
Jen
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Tom Curtis at 14:51 PM on 8 June 2014Richard Tol accidentally confirms the 97% global warming consensus
As many of you know, an anonymous person identifying themselves as "A Scientist" has written an critique (PDF) of Tol (2014). A Scientist indicates the anonymitty is due to Tol's vituperative and bullying responses to those having the temerity to criticize his work. The criticism is interesting, and seems valid in principle, but unfortunately is marred by some errors. I have yet to determine if it stands up after those errors are corrected for. (Neal King of SkS has corrected all bar one of the errors, and shown that apart for that one error the analysis is sound after correction.)
In looking at that critique, I have noticed that there is a simpler means to show that Tol's method, and in particular his error correction matrix, is nonsense. Tol assumes two things - that all endorsement levels (1-7) have the same error rate, and that the ratios among possible errors are constant regardless of the endorsement category, and are given by the ratios of average errors over all the data. The interesting thing I noticed is that by assuming that, he predicts that the forward error rate varies greatly between endorsement values. In fact, he predicts the following error rates:
1: 35.61%
2: 10.36%
3: 8.56%
4: 1.36%
5: 84.69%
6: 62.94%
7: 29.51%That is, he predicts that just 1.36% of papers that actually had neutral abstracts were rated as something else by the Cook et al, 2013 (C13) rating team; but that 84.69% of papers with abstracts that actually implicitly rejected AGW were mistakenly rated as something else. But not only that, he also predicts that these massively disparate forward error rates were somehow coordinated such that the each category as reported in the paper would have just 6.67% errors.
Such a feat would require extraordinary precision in the "errors" purportedly made, and all without coordination or prearrangement. The notion that such precision errors could arise by chance is laughable. Coordination or prearrangement is ruled out not just by the known facts pf what was done but also by the sheer pointlessness of coordinating errors to achieve the same final error rates in all categories. The hypothesis that predicts this precision error production is therefore, laughable.
When it is realized that the evidence in support of this absurd result is a simple mathematical fallacy, ie, that the product of the means will equal the mean of the products, you have to wonder why Tol persists in defending this absurdity. It is as though he wants the world laughing not only at his blunder, but at him as well.
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Tom Curtis at 10:17 AM on 8 June 2014Richard Tol accidentally confirms the 97% global warming consensus
I have found yet another error by Tol, although this one is not as convenient. As part of his analysis, Tol found a final error rate of 6.7% That is based on the 33% disagreement rate (D) after initial ratings as stated in Cook et al (2013). In essence he calculates an individual error rate (i), such that
D= 2i-i2/6
He divides by six because there are six possible categories that an error might fall into, a procedure that assumes that all errors are equally probable. Of course, not all errors are equally probable. In fact, almost all errors are just one category greater or smaller, so that a better approximation would be given by:
D= 2i-i2/2
A slightly better approximation is given by:
D= 2i-A*i2
where A is the sum of the squares of the average probabilities for errors by difference from the correct value as given in Tol's graph S20. It turns out that A is 0.525514. That reduces theindividual error rate to approximately 17.3%, but increases the final error rate to 7.28% due to an increased rate of undetected errors from initial rating. An even more accurate estimate could be made allowing for the differences in probable errors for different endorsement ratings, but I doubt the difference would be sufficiently large to make a substantial difference.
I strongly suspect it makes no substantial difference to the correct analysis of probable errors using this higher error rate. Never-the-less, I would be interested in seeing the results of such a re-analysis if any of the authors of the response to Tol would be willing to plug the values into their algorithm.
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Tom Curtis at 09:56 AM on 8 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
Dana, I read Tol differently. His vendetta against Cook et al (2013) began by his making intemperate comments based on a blog post by poptech, and then digging his heals in rather than admit error. However, his initial acceptance of poptech's blog post is not explained by that, nor by a desire for publicity. Nor is his long term cooperation with Lomborg, nor his association with the GWPF, nor his absurd recent comments about the IPCC, nor the consistent bias from his various "gremlins" towards findings that require less action on AGW. I do not disagree that he is a glory hound, but that alone is inadequate to explain his actions.
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John Hartz at 05:04 AM on 8 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
"Tolgate" may be an appropriate label for Tol's vendetta against John Cook and the team of SkS volunteers who expended a lot of blood, sweat, and tears in the production of Cook et al (2013).
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dana1981 at 02:14 AM on 8 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
[snip] But he's a generally smart person, so he knows the consensus is real and accurate, that the economics of the situation demands a carbon price, etc.
However, I think he saw all the attention Cook at al. (2013) received, and he wanted a piece. I think it's as simple as that.
Moderator Response:[KC] ad hominem snipped
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John Hartz at 01:58 AM on 8 June 20142014 SkS News Bulletin #5: Obama's Climate Change Inititiative
I deleted Chriskoz's comment by mistake. Here it is:
I'll add a bit of OZ flavour to this week's selection from US only.
Unfortunately, news from OZ is the bad and the embarrasing one.
Note the article by Peter Hannam (IMO, a good local env editor) is in the business section of today's smh:
I don't know what's more extraordinary: the categorisation of Peter's article or Treasurer Joe Hockey's referal to the wind towers as ''utterly offensive''.
Regardeless of those highly subjective (IMO silly) remarks by current govs, it looks as OZ may start to falling behind US in the mitigation.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:40 AM on 8 June 2014The Skepticism In Skeptical Science
The current summation of the Skeptical Science site is "Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism".
Perhaps adding something to define that skepticism would help, like: "Providing climate science information for people who are willing to change their mind based on all of the available information and its validity."
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Tom Curtis at 23:24 PM on 7 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
Martin Lack @3, Tol's considered opinion on AGW appears to be:
1) It is demonstrably real and happening now;
2) The risks of future climate change as a result of AGW are sufficient to warrant a price on Carbon; and
3) In order to impliment (2), he makes common political cause with anybody opposed to any action on AGW (including carbon prices).
Given the irrationality of (3) given (1) and (2), you may be tempted to question it. In evidence, I give the fact that he is part of the Copenhagen consensus (Bjorn Lomborg), an adviser for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, now a go to guy for testimony in Congress for climate denying Republicans, and Tol (2014).
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Martin Lack at 22:15 PM on 7 June 2014Resources and links documenting Tol's 24 errors
If Tol accepts the reality, reliability and reasonableness of the consensus (i.e. as in the quote on p.3 of the '24 Errors' PDF), can someone please tell me what he was trying to prove by his critique of C13? It seems to me that, in attempting to criticise the methods - and cast aspertions on the motives - of C13, he has shot himself in both feet.
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MThompson at 22:06 PM on 7 June 2014Richard Tol accidentally confirms the 97% global warming consensus
Mr. Curtis, thank you for your thoughtful consideration of my comment numbered 18. It is true, as you have so alluded, that a survey of abstracts is insufficient to extract determinations that may be presented in the bulk of the published work.
I most fully appreciate your comparison to the abstracts referencing values for the acceleration of gravity. The approximation you cited has been used successfully over the centuries for military ballistics and engineering. The notion that there exists a force of gravity is the consensus of scientists and of educated people across the globe. Newton’s theory of gravitation is in fact so successful that it has been elevated to “Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation.” Yet two hundred years after his teachings A. Einstein proffered a theory that states the force of gravity does not even exist. Despite this, the consensus persists and is so ingrained in our knowledge that it may be held by the vast majority for centuries.
Dispensing with these pleasantries, Cook et al. rightfully state in their abstract: “Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.” As stated previously, I have no qualms with this conclusion or characterization. Furthermore, any tacit agreement tortured from my commentary is not accidental.
If I must be plain, the method of my analysis to identify the endorsement of individual authors is to highlight the common mischaracterization of Cook et al. as “Over 97 percent of scientists agree …” This kind of irresponsible trivialization grates on me. I am similarly displeased when people breathlessly report another year (month, day, hour?) of “global warming hiatus” or “This September’s sea ice coverage.” Many readers of this auspicious blog are likely troubled by such bastardization of global climate change theory as well.
As scientists we must not be seduced by notoriety and politics. Solid science is the way to educate the public about global warming and climate change. Every time a blog shows clouds of steam emanating from a cooling tower in a popular story about pollution, and every time a television anchor cites a particular storm’s ferocity, science looses esteem. If we remain silent when such egregious errors agree with our opinions, what have we become?
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cesium62 at 18:23 PM on 7 June 2014It's not urgent
Perhaps I'm on the wrong page, but... The climate myth the way I've heard it is: "Nothing is going to happen for a long time, so we don't need to do anything now." This is mostly in the context of melting ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic.
The arguments I would expect to see are:
1) There are short term problems. For example ocean acidification and coral bleaching. Heat waves. Reductions in agricultural production.
2) Changes, especially cheap ones, take a long time to take effect. For example, the U.S. car fleet turns over in 20 years. If we stopped selling gasoline and diesel powered cars today and only allowed the sale of electric cars, it would take 20 years to get all the gasoline and diesel powered cars off the road.
3) There is huge inertia. If we stopped emitting new CO2 today, and held existing concentrations constant, we would see the earth continue to warm up in quite some time.
With business as usual, we will see accelerating CO2 emissions causing deteriorating climate, and we will also see deteriorating climate as the Earth tries to reach equilibrium with the CO2 already emitted. Both of these will mean that Miami will be flooded sooner (50 years) rather than later (100 years), plus we will have less time to react.
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scaddenp at 11:05 AM on 7 June 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #22
Ad hominem is an argument directed against a person rather than the debating position they are maintaining. However, in the cartoon, it is the debating position that is being ridiculed and it is ridiculous because of the content not because of who is saying it.
Moderator Response:I wonder if Bibasir's concerns weren't meant for the toon in Weekly Digest #21 rather than the one in weekly Digest #22.
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Tom Curtis at 09:03 AM on 7 June 2014Richard Tol accidentally confirms the 97% global warming consensus
MThompson @20, it is well known (and noted in Cook et al, 2013) that only a third of abstracts endorse or reject explicitly or implicitly that 50% plus of recent warming is due to anthropogenic factors. Even lower rates of physics papers discussing gravity will note in their abstracts that g is approximately equal to 9.8 m/s^2 for the obvious reason that what is uncontroversial (in science) and not novel does not get noted in summaries of the important findings of a paper (abstracts), except occasionally and in passing.
It is also well known and largely irrelevant that there were only 73 abstracts endorsing or rejecting that 50% or more of recent warming is due to anthropogenic factors (ie, those falling in rating categories 1 and 7).
What is not clear is why you think it is important to mention these largely irrelevant facts. Particularly in such an obscure manner. It is almost as though you are trying to stealth in some denier talking points without having to defend the imputation that they somehow undermine the overwhelming evidence that acceptance among climate scientists of the fact that 50% plus of recent warming is anthropogenic in origin.
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DSL at 06:50 AM on 7 June 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #22
bibasir, I don't understand the claim of ad hominem. The argument being made is that these reactions exist among members of the general public. If anything, the problem with the logic is overgeneralization (stereotyping), e.g. all religious people mindlessly accept the doctrine of their religion. However, all fairly realistic visual representations of people have that problem.
Actually, I find it interesting that two religious figures are present, and I assume the synergy between the two forces the first woman to be a representation of the hyperindividualist's concept of religion. In this cartoon, for example, "Jesus is who I need him to be at any given time."
The cartoon comprises a semiotic of hair, dress, facial expression, and text to create a complex representation of the typical reactions of people in the US to the message of the science of global warming. It is a conscious stereotype meant to provoke. SkS is not the target context for the cartoon, but it is still apropriate for appearance on SkS because SkS is all about the communication of climate science to the general public.
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