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Comments 36701 to 36750:

  1. Warren Hindmarsh at 14:56 PM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    @ doug you are proving my point. By labelling people opposing your position as "deniers". Now read John's article carfully, for him to use terms like " deniers exist in a fuzzy quantum state of denial, simultaneously rejecting many or all aspects of climate science" "nonsensical behavior" "There's a psychological reason for this" denigrate the opposing view. There is no need for this, just present the facts as my earlier link to RSS and IPCC evidence  did.

    In other words once you start getting personal in any discussion you weaken your position.

    Moderator Response:

    (Rob P) - the point here is that sites such as WUWT clearly demonstrate the Quantum Theory of Climate Denial (QTOCD) in action. Indeed KR has already provided some examples, although more explicit examples would be preferred. Why you would reference a site that only reinforces the point of this blog post is a mystery. 

    Complaining that you're being picked on is simply an attempt to detract attention away from this. That is not a counter-argument. If you cannot address the point under discussion we can only assume you have no counter-argument.

    And please note the comments policy - needless repetition is frowned upon here.   

  2. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    emissions vs vulnerability

    Composer99@17,

    You can "hot-link" your image. In this HTML editor, when the image you just created is still selected, chose Insert/Edit link and paste the URL of the image you just created. As I did with the image from our own sks graphics (after Samson et al 2011). I chose a different example, as not to fall victim of excessive repetition policy :)

    My image is hot (so you can click on it to see original). I see no reason why against all images being so hot-linked by default on this site. They are hosted as links in the first place, so it costs nothing to just create an <A> object for user to click and follow that link if desired.

    And my image shows that indeed, the distribution of global warming (due to said oscillations among other factors) is different to the distribution of the causal factors (anthropo emission), an indication that AGW problem is a social problem in the first place - environmental problem in the second place.

  3. Warren Hindmarsh at 14:32 PM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    The topic is in response to the article " The quantum theory of climate denial" that is my argument. 

  4. Doug Bostrom at 14:28 PM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    Warren, look at Skeptical Science. It's all about factual evidence of anthropogenic global warming; there are literally hundreds of articles here chock-a-block with evidence and facts about global warming caused by humans. In an average month the site dispenses about a terabyte of these facts and evidence. The site is very popular with people who are truly interested in learning about the evidence of climate change and what factors are driving it.

    Now read John's article again, more carefully this time. The people John is speaking of  are those who are not accessible via uptake of factual information, are impervious to evidence. The reason they're called "deniers" is because they don't argue evidence and are not interested in learning about evidence. Rather, they deny evidence.

    deny

    verb

    1. state that one refuses to admit the truth or existence of.

    How people deal with evidence of denial is another category of evidence.

  5. Warren Hindmarsh at 14:03 PM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    My argument is; instead of claiming people who doubt CAGW have amongst other things a "weird, counterintuitive phenomenon".  Counter their argument with facts and evidence.  I gave an example of that, which quoted sources, from a blog opposing CAGW

  6. The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    Then provide some, Warren.  I'm not going to WUWT to discuss it.  You posted the link here and made the claim that the analysis is evidence of some sort.  Present it and defend it.  If I went to WUWT and posted a link to SkS (with no summary or clue as to the thesis of the SkS article), d'ya think the circus would come here to discuss it?  What's your argument, Warren?

  7. Warren Hindmarsh at 12:44 PM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    ‘He who exercises no forethought but makes light of his opponents is sure to be captured by them.’ Sun Tzu 

    To try to win the AGW debate by dismissing opponents as intelectually incompetant is a sure way to lose.

    The best way to win the debate is to provide evidence.  Evidence ls the answer to how people make their decision.

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] As a furtherance to DSL's advice, if you're going to repeat memes, please do so on the most appropriate thread, not here.  Additionally, it is incumbent on you to then provide reputable evidence to support your contentions, evidence based in the published, peer-reviewed literature appearing in credible journals.

  8. The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    You noticed

    http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/10/believing-ten-impossible-things-before.html


    MT calls this the incoherence of denialism

    http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2008/10/coherence.html

  9. Stephen Baines at 08:01 AM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    This basically tells me that the science of climate is not the problem any more. It's the science of human behavior that matters. That's not to say that we shouldn't strive to clarify the climate science – that’s a given as a lack of clarity would be fatal. This site and others have made huge progress on that front and should continue. But, clarification is no longer the rate limiting step to consensus on action. It probably hasn't been for a long time.

    That leaves me wondering how much people's minds are changed by listening to voices that deny climate science. Do people listen to such voices precisely because they deny the science? And worse, is the fundamental rejection of scientific thought the basis of people's opinions about climate science? I’m certain there is some truth to this, but one can take that point of view too far as a guide to action. It can become an excuse to give up on communicating across political lines altogether, to write off those that disagree and revert to politics of power.

    Or do people distrust the science because they are told to do so by people they trust or like - people who tend not to look or act much like scientists? If that is true, substantial numbers of people might change their mind if a major media personality (or several) shifted position on climate. Should we (or someone) be trying to convince such people directly? A key problem is that any commenters who change position remain "trusted." It's tricky, such a conversion can lead to isolation and loss of influence after such a change of heart (the RINO effect).  

    On the ground, I genuinely think people (not media personalities!) are generally much less invested and much more flexible in their attitudes towards climate science than the media, the political parties and maybe even we scientists typically presume. As our person at the Science Communication Center here keeps reminding us, scientists are still the second most trusted group (80%) after the military according to surveys, and the level of trust has been quite stable over a long period of over time. The question is how to reach many people who’ve been taught to distrust climate science without triggering a political identity backlash.

    Sorry to ramble...but this issue has been bugging me and I thought I might get some useful feedback here.

  10. Rob Honeycutt at 07:04 AM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    Can this also be unified with the "blimp theory" whereby, after collapse into successive states of denial, the whole thing blows up into a giant blimp?

    See! Look, there's a blimp now!

    Wow! Okay, what were we talking about?...

  11. The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    I like this new hypothesis of climate denial indeteterminacy. It could probably also be illustrated as a multipanel cartoon showing a fuzzy grey cloud that collapses into completely different states depending on the input.

  12. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    I noticed similar issue as ajki; I can barely see the "Start" button and can't get past the country selection page.

  13. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    The radiative forcing numbers might not be very legible in the above, so here is the source for the image.

  14. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Poster @15:

    In point of fact the radiative forcings from various natural and anthropogenic causes have been quantified. Here is the graph from IPCC AR5:

    IPCC AR5 radiative forcings

    Climate change/global warming is simply the result of the change in radiative forcing. Thus modern climate change is almost entirely the result of anthropogenic activities.

    Internal oscillations such as PDO, AMO, ENSO, and the like do not affect climate change/global warming unless they have a quantifiable impact on radiative forcing. Mostly they just move energy around in the climate system, which definitely has effects on how humans perceive global warming and how the impacts of warming are spread through the system. Nevertheless such oscillations do not modify climate change/global warming in any fundamental manner.

  15. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    Second / third link ("here" and link to Adobe AIR) are not operational.

    Are there any hardware / software prerequisites to start the flash online version? For example, with a limited screenspace of a netbook (1024x600) I'm not able to select any "start"-button on the introduction screen.

  16. Dikran Marsupial at 04:11 AM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    I gather there is some discussion of it perhaps being 'time for an “official” climate skeptics organization, one that produces a policy statement, issues press releases, and provides educational guidance?'.  Of course the reason this won't ever happen is because if this organisation nailed the skeptics colours to the mast and stated their beliefs clearly and unambiguously, that would "collapse the wave function" (if that is the correct terminology) and prevent the oscillation in beliefs so often observed in discussions on climate change.

  17. The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    Yes, a good model, and see also:

    Pseudoskeptics Are Not Skeptics

     

  18. The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    OT: I had some trouble getting into your site recently. It called for verification to just look at the site, but when I put my name and password in, it didn't accept them. Were you being hacked again? Should I be worried that I gave my password to some bad actor?

    Moderator Response:

    Fear not, Wili. We've been cleaning up some fuzz growing on the site configuration and committed an error in connection with that. 

    Here's an essay offering some amusing insight into the writhing bag of snakes and hamsters hidden just beneath the glossy exterior of the Internet. Only about 10% hyperbole. :-)

  19. Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate

    Sure, humans don't have the ability to seriously harm life on earth, and the Cold War was really about the rise of polar bear batallions.

  20. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    I live in a small, semi-detached urban house with two other people that has been retrofitted with a high efficiency furnace, thermopane windows and as much insulation as will fit in the wall cavities and attic. We use 100% renewable or low-carbon electricity (yes, 100%: hydro, nuclear, wind, solar), heat with natural gas in a cold climate, rarely use an in-window air conditioner on only the hottest days, and take only showers. We drive a 7 year old hybrid when we don't use public transit or bike, never fly, and don't buy a lot of stuff. We scored just under half our national average, but that's still just over 9 tons, including the bottom 2.25 tons representing everything that we don't have control over (industry, commerce, institutional, government, infrastructure, transport of goods, etc.).

    We're already below half the national average, and there's not much more we can wring out of the existing house. Ditching the car is not an option at present, but km traveled will go way down in a couple years when we retire. Not sure where further substantial reductions can come from.

  21. CBDunkerson at 02:21 AM on 1 May 2014
    The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial

    Orwell called it 'doublethink', "The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them".

    Of course, the example above shows that climate deniers have achieved a whole new level of 'consciousness'... triplethink. For when doublethink just isn't crazy enough.

  22. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Logically I suppose you might say something like "At present CO2 from human actions is believed to be the prime cause of climate change/global warming but the  precise magnitude of this is, as yet, not established. Similarly  the precise magnitude of the effects of natural events such as the PDO, AMO etc has yet to be determined.  However, as humans can influence the CO2  produced as a result of their actions but probably can't influence natural events to any significant extent, current thinking is focussed more on what we can influence rather than on what we cannot.  That said however, it would be unwise to assume natural events have no effect on climate change/global warming.  Consequently  continued studies of all possible factors is essential.  

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] You are now skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Please read the Comments Policy and adhere to it. 

  23. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    I have a similar situation to John Wise.  Farm, log cabin, own (organic) food, wood stove, little vehicular travel, wife is 1.5 miles to work.  My carbon footprint is still too high according to the calulator.  Why?  Because there are four billion too many people on the planet. We passed carrying capacity back in 1936 at two billion.  Back then, people's carbon footprint was just at the level the planet could handle through the carbon cycle.  Now?  trouble..real trouble.  Think about it, if there were 1 billion people on the planet each emitting 50 tons of CO2 there wouldn't be a "planet problem".  So, reducing the carbon footprint - per person- ain't gonna work at 6 billion headed for 9.  This is why Elizabeth's book on the Sixth Extinction event is pure prophesy.

  24. Glenn Tamblyn at 20:57 PM on 30 April 2014
    Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Poster @13

    "Why do you not include natural factors that are thought to have at least some effect..."

    There is an interesting issue here Poster. How does one compare different possible processes that have vastly differing degrees of likelihood of being true? Does one simply lump them all together and say 'here is some stuff that might be relevent'?

    Or does one look at each process and say - 'this one is pretty damn certain, where as that is possible but really quite speculative'. If we don't differentiate the likelihood of different things being true don't we create a situation where our ability to evaluate them is compromised?

  25. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    denisaf@11 Why do you not include natural factors that are thought to have at least some effect such as the PDO, AMO, Milankovich cycles, natural aerosols etc?  Your comment  "People are more likely to respond soundly if they understand what is actually happening." is very valid.  Having been a universit y academic in area of biochemistry for over 30 years  I know from personal experience that getting others to understand scientific  concepts you requires clarity of expression, attention to detail and some humour.  What it does not require is the sarcastic, scathing, patronising and belittling responses so often given by those who consider their view of climate change  is the  only possible view.  I hasten to add that this does not refer to anything you have written in your comment above.

  26. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    I like the image of 97% of scientists. But the carbon cycle image does not grab the cognitive faculties of the non-analytical person. It requires time spent on it and some abstract understanding. A better image would be a pair of scales, with 350g weight on each tray, to one of which is added 1g of weight. The scales go out of balance, which is the point to be conveyed. (Then perhaps you can add the carbon cycle image).

    Moderator Response:

    (Rob P) - Agreed. The same thing was pointed out by another SkS writer. We'll work on it - the scales concept is interesting. We're open to suggestions. 

  27. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    One of the reasons why people find it hard to accept that they are causing climate change is the fact that they are not actually doing it. They just make the decisions. It is the operation of systems (coal-fired power stations, cars, trucks, aircraft, ships) and actvities such as logging are doing the irrversible damage. People are more likely to respond soundly if they understand what is actually happening.

  28. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    @ 5 John. I suspect that it's not aimed at you. Similarly here in Australia, I sold my business, moved to rural area with a milder climate and live in a very thick walled mudbrick house (mud from the little dam in front of the house used to store water for the vegetables and the orchard in the dry periods, pumped using renewable energy). A pedestal fan is more than enough in summer. We have a high efficiency wood heater that doesn't use much wood in the short, snowless winters and I live off the small income that business sale generated (retired at age 42, now 48) We grow much of our own stuff in our garden (seed saving etc) and have a small orchard. We keep, kill and breed our own free range chickens for eggs and meat and our electricity is renewable. My parter cycles to a part time job 3 days a week.


    We do this because one gets a sense of things actually living this way, eating what's available in the garden, when it's in season, what ever fruit is in season and trying to ensure you have a rotation so you have fruit and vegetables all year, I am sure you underatnd but not so sure others do.

    Maybe the author can do a carbon budget profile on submission and publish them here in a separate section, to show how things can be different ? Low CO2e lifestyles are possible and no cave necessary.
    I would be interested to see what these are once input emissions are used for the necessities let alone the emissions for sheer lunacy.  Like how much does it cost in emissions because bureaucracies like the Tax Office have to send me a letter in the post instead of emailing it to me, I use this as an example as I received one yesterday :)

  29. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    good reminder, thanks.

  30. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    When I learned for the first time that an average European is responsible for emissions of almost 10 tons of carbon dioxide per year (and an American double that amount) I was really shocked

    Why shocked ?  Surely after several decades of having it front and centre this has to be obvious ?

    The calculator lets you check your impact on the planet given other sources of energy, changes in industry and transport

    I am still having trouble grasping this, or when you say students do you mean children ?   The whole "keep the fossil fuels in the ground thing" has surely not passed people by, the whole "eat less meat thing" can't have passed people by, let alone owning a meat eating pet, driving a car, flying for holidays etc  The whole Inconvenient Truth thing ? The IPCC thing over several decades ? This is know by all who emit.  I am not expecting the khalari bushmen to be informed but those guys aren't the problem.  Only the deliberately ignorant can't be aware and no amount of education will overcome the "deliberate" bit (watch any discussion on creationism v evolution for proof of that).   

    I am genuinely lost here (and am not having a go at the author), this seems like a bizarre thought experiment,  the very reason people push back against CO2e reduction is how they think will impact their lifestlye today and tomorrow.  

    Below are various quotes I have clipped from Guardian CIF section over time that speak to this...

    Someone who accepts the science yet finds a way to avoid taking personal responsibility for his or her share of the problem probably can't be convinced to act by more science. They have already distanced their behaviour from contributing to the problem. The more you repeat the science to that person, the more that person blames government, oil companies etal for satisfying that person's own demand for their fossil fuelled lifestyle.

    People who campaign against slavery don't own slaves. People who campaign against smoking don't smoke. People who campaign against violence against women do not commit violence against women. And so it goes for almost all causes - except for climate change. Then, somehow, it becomes not only acceptable but almost obligatory for people who campaign against fossil fuels to burn more than their fair share of them.

    James Garvey speaks to this with Causal Inefficacy

    @3 It's not so much about frugality (albeit that can help, it's about emissions)  Buying a cheap used car, taking the dog for a walk instead of joining a gym, flying on a budget airline and holidaying during the low season are all frugal activites that leave large C02e footprints.  Or am I confusing your concept of frugality with living a simpler life ah la Ms Pick ?  Confronting people with their large emissions is still socially taboo because it's acceptable and you're expected to try and match emissions with Al Gore.  I have a hell of a time telling friends not to fly across the country (or across the World) to go for a hike etc, let alone not driving 4 hours to go for the same thing.  Take a hike is the least of the retorts :) and yet if they were engaged in something equally repugnant like slavery ?  They gasp at the thought and "hyperbole" is mixed in with plenty of other adjectives but rampant CO2e emissions, that's much worse... much much worse and yet ... crickets...

    willi @ 4 gets it :)  

    The whole thing is a circle jerk (can I say that on here ?)  Look at say The Guardian, they have a section promoting Travel, then juxtapose that with the section on Climate Change.  Allegorically it would be like having a whole section on paedophilia and people being okay with that... and that from a "responsible" media outlet.  We're in some sort of bizzaro world.  We are so far away from "getting serious" on emissions reductions it's laughable.  No way we're getting anywhere until people who do get the Science stop emitting. 

    The recently embroiled incontroversy, Stephan Lewandowsk wrote about this years ago:

    When shown the trajectory of annual CO2 emissions, which to date has exhibited an ever-accelerating increase, the majority of people will propose that stabilization of emissions, or a slight decrease, will be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2.

    This is completely and inescapably false.

    Whatever we're doing now has failed spectacularly to reduce global emissions, more of the same seems absurd.

  31. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Here is a translation of Palmer's thinking, in words we can all understand.

    You'll want to stopper your children's ears. 

  32. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    I live in the country and farm for a living. My carbon footprint according to this calculator is high,but it didn't give me the option of inputting my reality. For example,I live in a straw bale house that is super insulated and uses very little wood to heat,but there was no way to indicate that. I don't use public transit,because there isn't any! I eat meat,but I raise it myself on grass-no grain feeding and no long distance shipping. I eat a lot of frozen food in the winter-which I grew myself,so fewer trips to town to buy food that was shipped from afar.

  33. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    Good reality check. I score under one planet at www.myfootprint.org, but over 9 planets here. Let's get real. Anything remotely resembling a modern life style is f'ing the planet to death. (Sorry for the abreviated profanity, but really, what else can express our utter disregard for the most basic, fundamental ethics of, at the very least, not utterly destroying the next generations chance of the most meager of existence?)

  34. empirical_bayes at 10:13 AM on 30 April 2014
    HadCRUT4: A detailed look

    I know this post is a bit old, but I'm working with the HadCRUT4 ensemble of series, and was checking to see if something was well known before I approached Hadley/MetOffice with the question.  In particular, Wilks in his Section 7.7.1 of 2011 3rd edition Statistical Methods, and Palmer, Roberto Buizza, Hagedorn, Lawrence, and Smith, in their:

    Palmer, T. N., R. Buizza, R. Hagedon, A. Lawrence, M. Leutbecher, and L. Smith, 2006: Ensemble prediction: A pedagogical perspective. ECMWF Newslett., 106, 10–17.

    as quoted, for instance, in WG1AR5 Chapter 11, make a point that (to quote Wilks) "Often, operational ensemble forecasts are found to exhibit too little dispersion". I have read Morice, et al, carefully, but, apart from "... the 100 constituent ensemble
    members sample the distribution of likely surface temperature anomalies given our current understanding of these uncertainties. This approach follows the use of the ensemble method to represent observational uncertainty in the HadSST3 [Kennedy et al., 2011a, 2011b] ensemble data set".   I have also looked at Kennedy's 2014 "A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea surface temperature". Maybe we just don't know. 

    If we don't, is there some way of doing "MOS postprocessing", after Wilks, to these data? Or does anyone know if that was done, or is routinely done?

    Sorry to be on a highly technical point here.  I am exploring whether or not the variance of the HadCRUT4 ensemble is highly understated.  I'm seeking to try to estimate the internal variability of climate using these and the covariance estimates they provide, although I do not yet understand exactly what they are the covariances of.

    Thanks.

  35. calyptorhynchus at 08:52 AM on 30 April 2014
    Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    I wouldn't waste too much time on Clive Palmer. As a coal mining magnate it's in his own interest to misrepresent climate science. He has vowed to use his party's votes to vote down carbon pricing (the policy of the previous Labor government-he has also withheld his companies' payments under this scheme), but will also oppose the Liberal Party's much-derided Direct Action policy too. Looks as if he just doesn't want action on global warming in any shape or form.

  36. How global warming broke the thermometer record

    SSTs are hard!

    I agree it's issue. Let's see what ERSST can do with their next release.

  37. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    Should be a compulsory test for everyone (certainly in the developed world). It gave me quite a shock to find that my (what I thought) frugal life-style still coughed up  around 9 tons. Must do better!

  38. Models are unreliable

    Thanks Alexandre but I was hoping for someting more that I could sink my teeth into. 

  39. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    Thanks for the interesting link. I thought my score would be low. I'm only traveling by public transport and bike. I'm living in a flat and I seldom fly abroad etc etc. But still ended up on 7 tons. If everyone on this planet would have the same standards as me, that would result in 1.4 times higher emissions, and to stop climate change in that scenario would require 7 planets. That's scary.  (If I understod the summary correctly)

  40. How global warming broke the thermometer record

    KC, looking forward to any bucket/engineRoom corrections you can make.

    This is the most problematic area in the SST data.  I think the WWII time interval is completely messed up.

  41. Models are unreliable

    Re Stranger at 02:28 AM on 30 April, 2014

    Try this. Not very conclusive, but it has some preliminary hints.

  42. Models are unreliable

    I asked this question because I posted on our newspapaer the following.

     

    The letter writer wrote:  " Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, the international n February, he spoke before Congress about the futility of relying on computer models to predict the future."

    I wrote, "But computer models predicted our current state of warming more than 30 years ago when winter temperatures were consistently sub zero around the nation. They predicted sea level rise. They identify trends not year to year predictions."

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

     

    This is a reply I recieved.

    "But computer models predicted our current state of warming more than 30 years ago..."

    No, they haven't. Please read:

    “Recent observed and simulated warming” by John C. Fyfe & Nathan P. Gillett published in Nature Climate Change 4, 150–151 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2111 Published online 26 February 2014"

    I tried to find some disscusion here, REal Climate and Tamino and didn't have any success. 
    Moderator Response:

    (Rob P) - The climate model simulations in CMIP5 do indeed show greater warming than is observed. But the simulations use projections from either 2000 onwards, or 2005 onwards, rather than actual observations. This animation below shows what happens when the models are based on what actually happened to the climate system - well our best estimate so far anyway.

    See this post: Climate Models Show Remarkable Agreement with Recent Surface Warming on Schmidt et al (2014).

  43. Models are unreliable

    Can someone give me some information concerning John C. Fyfe; & Nathan P. Gillett which  that claims global warming over the past 20 years is significantly less than that calculated from 117 simulations of the climate?

  44. What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?

    I like the idea, but it does not have the options that apply to me here in Brazil: no house heating and ethanol car.

    Apart from that, it's a good way of having some feel of how diverse are the sources of CO2 emissions.

  45. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Muzz @6, first, you are being very pedantic in that context clearly indicates the scientists in question to be those knowledgable on global warming.  Second, even on the pedantic interpretation, 82% of scientists in general accept the antropogenic origin of recent global warming.  Significantly, the reduction in acceptance comes mainly from scientists who are neither expert in the field, nor active researchers - ie, those least qualified to advise on the topic.

  46. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    The reason why the Australian public think that there is only a 58% agreement between climate scientists is because the debate in the popular media is mostly political where anything seems to be said rather than it being a scientific debate based on evidence. Also, the basic theory behind the scientific argument i.e. increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to humans burning fossil fuels will lead (and is leading) to global warming which will change the climate, is not being stated often enough in the media.

    It should be fairly easy to prove this theory with some basic physics and chemistry. Most of the debate in the media concentrates on what we are seeing and what it means rather than on the very basis of the theory. If the theory isn't correct then it undermines our understanding of the science of atoms, the electromagnetic spectrum, isotopes, fluid dynamics and chemical reactions. If the theory isn't correct then it actually undermines our understanding of some of the very science that underpins our technological society.

  47. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    To be pedantic perhaps, Tony Jones did say a group of scientists, not a group of climate scientists, so amongst that group it might possibly be less than 97%

  48. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    Riduna@4,

    Based on the recently published details of current Government’s “Direct Action” scheme, my personal opinion is that, for both environment and australian people, it would be better to leave Australia without any legislative basis for reducing carbon emissions, rather than replacing existing Carbon Tax with said “Direct Action”.

    The reason for my opinion is that “Direct Action”:

    - will work against the emission reduction by rewarding polluters (giving them money for the "promise" to reduce emissions that may or may not work in practice)

    - does not create any incentives on the consumer side to reduce/alter their energy usage

    - will cost govts money that they will need to find by cutting some social spending or increasing base taxes (what they are already doing now)

    So, while I agree with you that PUP's voting according to Palmer's vested interests after 1 July, will likely result in the complete alienation of Australia from global mitigation efforts, this result would not be the worst ever outcome. Palmer is a complete sciece denier at the most basic level as we've seen above, but at the same time he also understands the futility (and potential negative economic impact) of ill-constructed "Direct Action".

  49. How global warming broke the thermometer record

    Alexandre: it's not a problem I've looked at, but I was pretty impressed with RegEM. I doubt we can improve on that.

    There's interesting work to be done on the early instrumental record though. There are some significant divergences there, although they are far less topical than the recent record.

  50. Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts

    It is important that Clive Palmer understands why human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for global warming. This essay makes it very clear why this is the case, so one would hope that Palmer and his Party (PUP) read this lucid explanation.

    This is particularly important given that PUP may hold the balance of power in the Senate after 1 July, 2014. Clive Palmer has already indicated that his Party is likely to oppose legislation to establish the Government’s “Direct Action” scheme for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. He correctly describes it as costly and ineffective.

    However, he has also indicated that PUP is likely to support abolition of the Carbon Tax and the extensive measures aimed at promoting renewable energy and the independent science-based body responsible for advising government on future carbon reduction targets. The net result of such voting would be to leave Australia without any legislative basis for reducing carbon emissions.

    While this might be a satisfactory outcome for the owners of high emission businesses – of which Palmer is one – it would also ensure that Australia would not meet its treaty obligations to reduce carbon emissions.

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