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aryt.alasti at 05:25 AM on 1 March 2014A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 3
If this took place in 2012, why are we reading about it only now?
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Doug Bostrom at 04:58 AM on 1 March 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Comparing Gleick to a common thief without informed consideration is to wade into an ethical morass, wearing naivete instead of waders.
Of the people in the crowd here Tom is probably most likely to emerge on the the other side of the swamp without being covered in mud.
For the rest of us, before saying a word about Gleick and then going on to make comparisons do read the necessary fundamental primer on how and when to compromise ethics and morality, "Lying: Moral Choice in Public and Private Life" by Sissela Bok. If you're not up to at least that level you're not capable of making the kind of comparisons being posed here.
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KR at 04:50 AM on 1 March 2014Temp record is unreliable
rivetz - It's the same deal, the same nonsense, as has been pushed by climate denialists and conspiracy theorists before. They are claims that corrections for known errors and biases are somehow the result of an Evil Plot, usually tied to Agenda 21 or some other fever dream. And they consist of ignoring known biases, cherrypicking single stations, and other errors.
The adjustments made to the US temperature data, most of which consist of time of observation (TOBS) bias correction, are clearly and publicly documented (see here and here) - the TOBS issue has been a known bias for over 150 years, and its correction entirely justified if you want accurate data.
Here are the various adjustments, along with a link to their public description, documentation, and reasoning. Note the similarity to the data adjustments Goddard and others claim as sinister and underhanded, while congratulating themselves for the discovery! If the people making such claims ever cared to read the documentation they would realize their mistakes.
[Source]
As I've said in previous discussions on the topic, looking at temperatures without correcting for these known and well quantified errors is as foolish as looking for stars without cleaning the dust and oil off your telescope lenses. The results will, in both cases, contain errors.
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rivetz at 04:25 AM on 1 March 2014Temp record is unreliable
Hoping this is the right argument/thread for this - as a rank amateur in climate science who logs time in the trenches of conservative message boards trying to engage skeptics on the fence in rational conversation, I continue to run up against folks holding up Mr. S. Goddard's accusations of NASA data fudging courtesy of Dr. Hansen. (I'm not referring to the WUWT-related sea ice debacle, this is brand-new 2013 stuff.)
I won't sully these pages with a link to the nonsense; Google "Goddard Hansen tampering" or just go to his site and you'll find it easily enough. The problem is that I'm unfortunately not statistician enough to refute these charges on a technical platform, so I'm stuck with supplying admittedly ad hom responses pointing out his abyssmal track record and the like.
Could someone provide a concise answer as to where specifically Goddard has been misreading or miscalculating temp data in the last year specifically? More specifically, is the adjustment of the temperature record valid and due to the dropout of poorly cited or obsolete stations, or has there been no adjustment and SG's just misrepresenting the data via improperly constructed graphs, or both?
I've found plenty of explanations for the 2012 debacle, but little re his latest round of histrionics, and would love to know if this is the same deal or some new angle he's adopted. Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
DW -
Russ R. at 03:40 AM on 1 March 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
scaddenp, Rob Honeycutt, and michael sweet:
Because you asked, here are 3 examples of prominent individuals condoning Gleick's actions. And for balance, one example of a prominent individual who responded very appropriately, in my opinion.
- Naomi Klein: "Send @PeterGleick some Twitter love, he took big risks to bring important truths about the deniers to light." Twitter and Facebook, Feb 20, 2012
- While she may have little to do with climate science, she certainly is prominent. But maybe 140 characters is insufficient to fully express an opinion on the immorality of the act.
- Scott Mandia: ""Heartland has been subverting well-understood science for years," wrote Scott Mandia, co-founder of the climate science rapid response team. "They also subvert the education of our school children by trying to ;'teach the controversy' where none exists." He went on: "Peter Gleick, a scientist who is also a journalist just used the same tricks that any investigative reporter uses to uncover the truth. He is the hero and Heartland remains the villain. He will have many people lining up to support him." The Guardian, Feb 21, 2012
- He uses more words but still can't find anything negative to say about Gleick's actions. Maybe he was quoted out of context by the Guardian. Such things happen.
- George Monbiot: "I see Peter Gleick, the man who obtained and leaked the devastating documents from the Heartland Institute, as a democratic hero. I do not think he should have apologised, nor do I believe that his job should be threatened. He has done something of benefit to society." The Guardian and his own website, Feb 24, 2012
- Hard to be quoted out of context on your own website.
Anyway, here's someone who I believe responded appropriately:
- Gavin Schmidt: "Gleick’s actions were completely irresponsible and while the information uncovered was interesting (if unsurprising), it in no way justified his actions. There is an integrity required to do science (and talk about it credibly), and he has unfortunately failed this test. The public discussion on this issue will be much the poorer for this – both directly because this event is (yet) another reason not to have a serious discussion, but also indirectly because his voice as an advocate of science, once powerful, has now been diminished." RealClimate, Feb 21, 2012
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MA Rodger at 01:11 AM on 1 March 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Chris Snow @11.
Back in October the BBC Radio 4 Today programme reported that the BBC could not find a British climate scientist that was not signed up to the IPCC's findings. That morning there were 6 items on the IPCC AR5 SPM release. The only skeptical voice was that of Lawson but from the archive and presented as an exemplar of wrongheadedness. It made for refreshing listening.
However, by luchtime the numpties had managed to get Bob Carter onto The World At One, resulting in an attrocious piece of news reporting by the BBC (transcript here - Peter Stott was not even allowed to hear what Carter had said, due to 'technical problems' apparently). Of course, in 'finding' Carter the BBC had not found a British climatologist. Carter is Australian and a geolologist. But he does have a UK connection - as one of Lawson's Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasy, by dint of the GWPF being a charity, he is thus able to spread his untruths at the UK taxpayer's expense.
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Composer99 at 01:00 AM on 1 March 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
MartinG:
Carefully collected and analyzed survey data is more valuable than personal impressions.
The underpinning of the Consensus Project is made plain in the infographic at the head of the OP: in the first place there is a gap between the public perception of scientists' findings and the findings themselves, and in the second place narrowing the gap increases the likelihood that laypeople (such as myself) will support making climate policy.
This is exacerbated by the fact that those engaged in disinformation, such as Lawson, are certainly not interested in "get[ing] on with the stuff that's really important" and are still trying to call very basic, solid scientific conclusions into question.
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CBDunkerson at 22:44 PM on 28 February 2014Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
As I recall, most of the information in the strategy document was also corroborated by the documents Gleick tricked Heartland into sending to him. Indeed, the only quotation from the strategy document I saw in skimming through the post again was a reference to Heartland funding from the Koch Foundation... which even the crazies no longer dispute.
It was reasonable to take down the links when the origin of the 'strategy document' was first disputed, but now that the dust has settled I don't see why such action would be needed. The creator of the document is unknown, but most of the information it contains has been proven true. It would thus fall into the category of a 'leak'. Some of it may also have been fabricated, but we don't really know that. If it were provably faked, as you seem to assume, then I'd agree it shouldn't be linked... though more because it would at that point simply be irrelevant. Given that most of its content is corroborated by the other documents there'd be no point in considering the few bits of false information. So long as those bits may or may not be false a warning to that effect seems sufficient.
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Kevin C at 21:46 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
I find the discussion of morality here irrelevent and distracting.
Skeptical Science is about climate science, and about the sociology surrounding climate science and its rejection.
The hack has no bearing on the science. It may have some bearing on the sociology surrounding of climate science and its rejection, or it may be a random act of malice - which of these is the case is at this point unproven.
While as a computer geek I am of course interested in the details of the hack, I think the importance of this series is to place the information in the public domain where future researchers into the history and sociology of climate science rejection can ask how, if at all, it fits in.
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michael sweet at 20:53 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ,
You say "I could name many prominent individuals who have done exactly that.", but you do not name a single one. This is political sloganeering and is not allowed at SkS. You frequently assert that you are correct without any data to support your wild claims. By contrast, Tom provided links to peer reviewed data. Provide a list if you have names or do not make your unsupported claims. When you do not provide data to support your claims you are conceeding the point. Since you have provided no names you have conceeded that you cannot find them.
You have the same habit with your claims about the science. Provide data links to support your wild claims.
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MartinG at 20:12 PM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
How long do we have to read Dana's mantra about 97%. It just gives deniers more ammunition to fuel the fire. Get real. Most scientists who know anything about this agree we have global warming, ditto that CO2 contributes to GW, and ditto that Humans are the main cause for the present rise in CO2. So lets get on with the stuff thats really important - how critical is it - and what do we do about it. If the BBC were to allow only blatant onesided arguments from folks such as dana then we would be just as insensed as if they only listened to Lord Lawson. The very one sided propaganda nature of the debate is in my opinion why the public are losing sight of the real issues.
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Chris Snow at 18:26 PM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
As I've mentioned on a couple of other blogs recently, I can’t actually think of any British climate scientist with a record of published research who is a sceptic, so maybe it isn’t surprising that Nigel Lawson always gets the call to provide "balance".
If the BBC is consistent, maybe we'll be hearing the views of John Major on quantum mechanics or Kenneth Clarke on superstring theory.
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Rob Honeycutt at 15:06 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Andy... Looking at the Monbiot link, I think he's using the event as a means to bring up other sociopolitical issues, which sort of mirrors my comment @8 about exploring the issue.
"I believe we have a right to know who is paying for public advocacy. The groups which call themselves thinktanks but look to me more like lobbying organisations working on behalf of corporations and multi-millionaires, exist to try to change public policy. Yet, with a few exceptions, they operate in a vacuum of accountability."
So, while I don't agree that Gleick's actions are justifiable, I think the event, in-and-of-itself, presented the opportunity to discuss other tangential but equally important issues.
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Tom Dayton at 13:49 PM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm: I strongly suspect that Bob Loblaw is correct about your intention. But I'll try one more time: You are incorrect in expecting scientists to say that they are absolutely certain about anything. One of the criteria for writing a good scientific paper for peer-review and then publication is to always describe what further research should be done; usually that means describing ways in which your own research that you have described in this paper fails to answer all the questions anyone might have. Such admissions of shortcomings are not appropriately interpreted as implying that the currently reported research is inadequate for drawing any conclusions. But that, as Bob pointed out, is what you are doing. The question always is what conclusions are adequately supportable by this research. As scaddenp pointed out, Gentleman and Fu concluded their research was sufficient for the purpose of modeling OLR. Similarly, the Science of Doom blog author concluded:
Still, that’s a different story from acknowledging that climate models attempt to calculate humidity from some kind of physics but believing that these climate models get it wrong. That is of course very possible.
At least from this paper we can see that over this short time period, not subject to strong ENSO fluctuations or significant climate change, the satellite date shows upper tropospheric humidity increasing with surface temperature. And the CAM model produces similar results.
A broader survey of the literature was done by the IPCC. Their conclusion that I quoted to you earlier is that the empirical evidence is more than sufficient. Your opinion to the contrary is meaningless unless you can cite specific, concrete reasons for the empirical evidence being insufficient for the purpose to which the IPCC is using it.
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Andy Skuce at 13:43 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
I think that there are some intreresting comparisons to be made between the Gleick case and the SkS hack. While there were a few who applauded Gleick (eg George Monbiot) many more were critical of his ethics, some harshly so. Peter Gleick himself apologized. The released material comprised budget documents and strategic plans. Released documents that contained personal information about Heartland board members was taken down.
There was no need to hack SkS to find out our budget or strategy, anyone who asked could find out: a few bucks raised by donations to pay for webhosting, no payments to contributors, no secret paymaster. Our strategy is to keep doing what we have been doing.
The SkS hacker must have been disappointed. All he got was confirmation of all of the above and a few intemperate comments of the kind that people make when they are chatting and venting privately among friends. Mostly, the conversation was earnest (and usually rather boring) discussion about getting the science right.
In contrast, many of those sympathetic to the SkS hacker continue to deny that there was even a break-in. We had faulty locks, they say, so even if there was a break-in, SkS deserved it: in other words, blame the victim, plea contributory negligence. The hacker himself does not dare to come forward, even anonymously, to say what happened.
And, among those who have published our private conversations and personal information, we hear very little in the way of doubt or questioning that this might or might not be justifiable.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:41 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ...
Yes, please do tell. You're going to need to support that statement.
What is absurd is to conflate a moral lapse with an extended, intentional criminal attack.
Think of it this way. It's the difference between having had an affair while married, and forcably beating and raping someone.
Both are wrong but the two are not comparable. I am insulted because I have been personally affected by the hacking and you are showing a callous incapacity to see the relevant severity of the two acts.
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Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Russ R. - Considering that the document in question was anonymously sent to Gleick in hard copy, prompting the social engineering he did to get the rest of the documents, that document (with appropriate caveats due to the lack of provenance) is the least morally questionable of the papers involved. It wasn't stolen, and is entirely consistent with the content of other documents Heartland has acknowledged to be real.
It's still up at DesmogBlog, too.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:30 PM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
These "balancing" or "Alternative point of view" claims are definitely not about improving the best understanding of the science, or about developing the best understanding of what needs to be done.
Lawson and many other very powerful business and political figures have devoted their entire life's effort to the promotion of benefit for the few for a short-time, pushing all they can get away with to make it easier for wealth to be obtained from many unsustainable and damaging activities, including, but not limited to, the burning of fossil fuels.
Only a fool, or a person who shares the deep desire to maximize the short-term benefit for the few from unsustainable and damaging activities, would consider that type of person to be a reasonable party to invite to comment on the merits of "undoing all their life's work, just for the benefit of future generations who have no vote and have no money to spend today".
The future of humanity requires leaders who will genuinely push for the rapid development of sustainable ways of living, in spite of the popularity or proifitability that can be 'created by the fallible actions of greedy people". The sooner these type of people are unable to get away with their unacceptable desires the better it will be for everyone else.
It needs to be clear that there is a real "Us vs. Them" battle to be fought. Unsustainable and damaging activities threaten the sustainability of economies, societies, and humanity's future on this amazing planet.
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Russ R. at 13:10 PM on 28 February 2014Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Contradicting the claim above in "UPDATE 2" that "the link to the climate strategy document below has been removed, as Heartland disputes its authenticity.", I should bring to your attention that 2 years later, this page is still quoting from and linking to the fake "Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy" document.
I'm assuming this is merely an oversight that will be corrected.
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scaddenp at 13:02 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Gosh, do tell. Who are these people who didnt think this was a serious error of judgement?
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Russ R. at 12:32 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Rob Honeycutt,
"As well, no one that I know of has ever condoned Gleick's actions."
Then you are indeed fortunate. I could name many prominent individuals who have done exactly that.
"But it's absurd to compare that to the CRU and SkS hacks where people have systematically, deliberated, and with malice of forethought, perpetrated very serious crimes."
Would you be so kind as to explain what is so "absurd" about the comparison? Assuming the SkS hacker did indeed gain unauthorized access to obtain private information and leaked it publicly, how does that differ from Peter Gleick's actions?
"I find Russ' comparison insulting and a deliberate attempt at distraction from the issue at hand."
I can't imagine why you would feel insulted. I never mentioned you, nor did I suggest you would support Gleick's actions. And it's hardly a "distraction for the issue at hand". You were the one who mentioned "people out there with such low standards of morality as to believe it's okay to do this". I simply provided an example.
"If he wishes to discuss the merits of whether or not the Heartland docs should be posted on SkS, it should be done on that thread, not here."
I already noted above that "I have no issue with SkS continuing to link to the real Heartland documents..." But fair enough, I'll move discussion of the fake document to the other thread.
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kanspaugh at 10:26 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I can't help but to wonder if a contrarian such as Judith Curry would have any name recognition at all (outside of the small number of climate scientists working in her area of expertise) if not for this mindless pursuit of "balance" by journalists. It can elevate a relative mediocrity to genius (celebrity?) status.
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scaddenp at 10:13 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm - firstly I note that you are reading links, which is good, but to defend your position why do you need to do so? I would assume that you would adopt a position on the basis of papers you have read or had least been reported on but so far you havent shown us what these were.
Second, it is a bit of a stunning leap to jump from the bolded quote to your conclusions. In particular, why are historical values of any importance to climate models? Also, you seem to have missed the actual conclusion of the Gentleman and Fu paper. The important point is that if climate models had it badly wrong, then they would not be modelling OLR which is sum of those processes.
For Spencer, I have responded to you here.
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scaddenp at 10:12 AM on 28 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
Responding from another thread:
As to Spencer - well: "I view my job a little like a legislator, supported by the taxpayer, to protect the interests of the taxpayer and to minimize the role of government."
I have a preferrence for scientists who see their job as finding out what is not known and creating useful theories; but my main objection to Spencer is his actual attempts at science and serial misinformation. More about that here but check out the articles for yourself. He can say what he likes on blogs, but for credibility in science you have to back those assertions which he has consisitantly failed to do. In short, Spencer position on a matter of science seems instead to be an ideological one. Proposed solutions to climate change dont fit the ideology and he would appear to be bankrupt of alternative suggestions which do fit his ideology, ergo climate change must be natural. Yeah, right.
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Alexandre at 10:03 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I remember the late BBC One Planet podcast, that covered environmental issues: they had this "balance" in their interviews, giving space to the likes of Richard Lindzen and letting him get away with claims like "high sensitivity is just the result of biased models" or that the reason for virtually the whole scientific comunity to support climate action was "vested interests".
This podcast has had its good moments, but bad moments like this made me feel less sorry for them being cut off.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:41 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Tom... There are certainly people out there who condone Peter's actions, and I don't think they are right to do so, especially seeing as Peter doesn't condone Peter's actions. Those folks are far and few.
I also think there are private discussions about Peter's actions where people float such views for the purposes of exploring the issue, but without making a public declaration that they would condone his actions.
I find Russ' comparison insulting and a deliberate attempt at distraction from the issue at hand.
If he wishes to discuss the merits of whether or not the Heartland docs should be posted on SkS, it should be done on that thread, not here. Conflating the two events is not warranted.
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dwm at 09:20 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
I meant to mention, Tom, that I’m glad you brought up AQUA. Here are a couple of statements by Dr. Spencer’s who is the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
"we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work”
"the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution."
He has a website if you'd be open to checking out an alternative viewpoint.
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Tom Curtis at 09:13 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Rob Honeycutt @6, my take is somewhat different, in that I believe I have encountered people who have condoned Gleick's actions. They have done so either on the grounds that the situation is now so desperate with regard to climate change that the end justifies the means; or the grounds that once "skeptics" began hacking and publishing the internal emails of scientists (and The Heartland Institute certainly republished them), they set a standard whereby they wished to be treated (ie, "Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander").
Personally, I believe that neither attitude is correct. Indeed, given that SkS has frequently moderated posts to delete links to either the UEA emails (I believe), or to draft versions of IPCC AR5 on the grounds that the information was obtained unethically, I think SkS as a matter of consistency should not link the the Heartland Institute documents. Either that or change its moderation policy to allow links to hacked or unethically leaked material that we consider unethically obtained, and/or published. Of the two, I believe the former to be the better approach.
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Phil at 08:54 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
The response by the BBC reported by MA Rodger @1 could be annotated thus
Whilst there may be a scientific consensus about global warming - that it is happening and largely man-made - there is no similar agreement about what should be done to tackle it; whether money should be spent, for example, on cutting carbon emissions or would be better used adapting our defences to the changing climate. Lord Lawson is not a scientist, but as a former Chancellor of the Exchequer is well qualified to comment on the economic arguments, which are a legitimate area for debate.
Maybe, but Lord Lawson was not invited to discuss the economic arguments, he was discussing whether the recent extreme rainfall in the UK was linked to climate change. That is not an "economic argument". Moreover he was put up against a climate scientist whose area of expertese is not economics. Why ?We believe there has to be space in the BBC’s coverage where scientific consensus meets reasonable argument about the policy implications of that consensus view.
If that is the case, then again why was Sir Brian Hoskins invited to take part, since he is not a policy maker ? Moreover the implication of this statement by the BBC appears to be that, somehow disliking the policy implications of climate change is sufficient reason to doubt the physical science - which is a nonsensical position. There is aboslutely no reason why the scientific consensus on global warming should "meet" arguments about the policy implications; because the policy can have no influence on physics.
That said we do accept that we could have offered a clearer description of the sceptical position taken by Lord Lawson and the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the introduction. That would have clarified in the audience’s minds the ideological background to the arguments.
Perhaps they should have included this too
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:53 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ R... As well, no one that I know of has ever condoned Gleick's actions. But it's absurd to compare that to the CRU and SkS hacks where people have systematically, deliberated, and with malice of forethought, perpetrated very serious crimes.
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Paul Pukite at 08:49 AM on 28 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
mgardner said:
"So, rather than respond at the level appropriate to the debate as presented by skeptics, and the audience it is aimed at, they foster the impression that rebuttal requires an ever-more complex analysis. "
One of my goals is to create an ever more simple analysis and not rely on GCMs. Skeptics should like that. One approach I take is to include factors that alternative theory scientists such as Scafetta and Curry want to see in the models. Skeptics should also like that.
What I am finding that skeptics don't like, is that even with all this bowing to their wishes, when the results don't agree with their preset notiions they still complain.
The goal-posts will always move.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:44 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ R... Interestingly, Peter Gleick, himself, stated that he believed it was wrong what he did, that he definitely had a lapse in judgement.
Has anyone done the same after the CRU hack? Has anyone bravely apologized for the SkS hack?
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Russ R. at 08:36 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
"And it's just phenominal to me that there are people out there with such low standards of morality as to believe it's okay to do this."
Peter Gleick, for example... and those who condone his actions in phishing and leaking documents from the Heartland Institute.
By the way, just thought I should let you know that SkS is still quoting from and linking to the 2-yr old fake "Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy" document of which Gleick denies authorship. (http://www.skepticalscience.com/denialgate-heartland.html). I'm assuming this is merely an oversight that will be corrected.
N.B.
- I accept on good faith that SkS' editors intended to remove links to the fake document, and simply missed one link and a few quotations.
- I have no issue with SkS continuing to link to the real Heartland documents despite the "low standards of morality" employed in their acquisition.
- I commend SkS for removing those documents that contain individuals' personal information.
- I do not support the Heartland Institute in any way.
- I do not condone the actions of whoever hacked SkS.
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dwm at 06:53 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
Hi Tom,(-snip-)
I am familiar with the water vapor articles on the Doom site, but I hadn't read the latest, thank you for that.Looking it over, I found several qualifying statements in the article that basically agree with the opinions I have been posting. You seem to have missed them so here they are:
This quote from Doom corroborates exactly what I said (in bold):
"A major problem with analyzing UTWV is that most historic measurements are poor for this region. The upper troposphere is very cold and very dry – two issues that cause significant problems for radiosondes."
This quote from Doom also agrees with what I wrote, water vapour is a critical issue (hence potential weak spot), and it is massively complex (hence hard to calculate and easy to get wrong, exhaustive study is necessary before having confidence):
"The question of how water vapor responds to increasing surface temperature is a critical one in climate research.
vapor concentration in the free troposphere is dependent on the global circulation, making it dependent on the massive complexity of atmospheric dynamics."
This quote from Doom concedes it is "very possible" that climate models get it "wrong" when he writes that
some people may “acknowledge that climate models attempt to calculate humidity from some kind of physics but believe that these climate models get it wrong. That is of course very possible."Gettelman & Fu concede that their short (and scattered) data sample by itself is “not sufficient”, or in other words, only one step in a long road yet ahead before we can conclude with confidence that the models are accurate:
"The hypothesis we seek to test is whether water vapor in the model responds to changes in surface temperatures in a manner similar to the observations. This can be viewed as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the model to reproduce the upper-tropospheric water vapor feedback caused by external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions."Moderator Response:[Dikran Marsupial] Moderation complaints snipped. Moderation complaints are by definition off-topic and will be deleted (after reading). I have snipped the moderation complaint this time, but in future the whole comment will be deleted as moderators do not have the time to edit posts. If you want to make a substantive point, leave the moderation complaints out of it. Please read the comments policy and abide by it, compliance is non-negotiable.
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ubrew12 at 06:39 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Among Climate Scientists, the agreement about Global Warming is 100%. Most believe the sensitivity is above 2C per doubling of CO2. A very few believe its below 2C. But there are no Climate Scientists, none, who disbelieve the idea altogether. This is a point that the public needs to be made more aware of. Its the reason Climate Deniers say their argument is with CAGW, not AGW, because it allows them to weasel out of their advocacy like a lawyer if you manage to nail them down on specifics.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:34 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Any fool can look at detailed budget slashing at DEFRA and decode what the Conservatives actually think about climate change. Meanwhile the BBC's been on the wrong foot recently for a number of reasons, are vulnerable and hence need to be careful not to offend the wrong people.
Folks don't rise to the top of management with a tin ear. Tone is set from the top. It's all a matter of listening.
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scaddenp at 05:18 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
In terms of quantifying feedback, there are well-acknowledged uncertainities in what the value of climate sensitivity is. However, you have asserted " we understand very little of the complex interactions of having different humidities in different layers of the atmosphere and in different regions of the earth" and I cant find backing for this in science that I am aware of.
Geoengineering is discussed as only as method of last resort if humanity doesnt do the obvious step - reduce emissions. Reducing emissions is safe, since it takes us to takes us back to known state. Since you accept the precautionary principle, I assume you are good with that.
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Paul D at 05:11 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
The BBC have got appalling at covering climate change over the last two or three years.
The recent storms have been devastating in the UK and follows up on the year of flooding in 2012.In over two months of bad weather and extreme flooding, the BBC completely failed to look at climate change or ask scientists about the weather. Instead they happily gave the voice of a Somerset MP who has a background of opposing wind farms and blamed the Environment Agency for failing to cope with record rain fall.
I have to say, but don't like to, the changes have come about since the last election.
It may be coincidence, but given that we have a government here that has a Prime Minister that refuses to acknowledge that he has appointed climate change deniers in some key positions, the BBC should be challenging the views of various government officials and politicians that they interview.Plus of course Labour did their bit by fueling the arguements last year about energy bills, which lit the touch paper that launched attacks on renewable energy.
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Composer99 at 03:07 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
MA Rodger: The BBC's response seems especially inapt given what Lawson actually spent his time arguing about (the science).
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EliRabett at 02:50 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Some hope from NBC News
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MA Rodger at 02:43 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I put a complaint in to the BBC about Lawson's appearance on Radio 4 because "almost every point he made was woefully wrong."
The reply I got back from the BBC was:-
Whilst there may be a scientific consensus about global warming - that it is happening and largely man-made - there is no similar agreement about what should be done to tackle it; whether money should be spent, for example, on cutting carbon emissions or would be better used adapting our defences to the changing climate. Lord Lawson is not a scientist, but as a former Chancellor of the Exchequer is well qualified to comment on the economic arguments, which are a legitimate area for debate.
We believe there has to be space in the BBC’s coverage where scientific consensus meets reasonable argument about the policy implications of that consensus view. That said we do accept that we could have offered a clearer description of the sceptical position taken by Lord Lawson and the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the introduction. That would have clarified in the audience’s minds the ideological background to the arguments.
It smacks of an excuse of the moment rather than a proper explanation.My own explanation is that the many 'swivel-eyed loons' within the Tory party had been applying a lot of pressure on climate (and may be other things as well) and the BBC caved in.
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Composer99 at 01:37 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
Non-Scientist:
I must disagree strongly with your characterization. There is no hint of what you suggest regarding "buying a Prius".
Here is the abstract of the paper discussed in the Reuters article:
It is widely assumed by policymakers and health professionals that the harmful health impacts of anthropogenic climate change1, 2, 3 will be partially offset by a decline in excess winter deaths (EWDs) in temperate countries, as winters warm4, 5, 6. Recent UK government reports state that winter warming will decrease EWDs7, 8. Over the past few decades, however, the UK and other temperate countries have simultaneously experienced better housing, improved health care, higher incomes and greater awareness of the risks of cold. The link between winter temperatures and EWDs may therefore no longer be as strong as before. Here we report on the key drivers that underlie year-to-year variations in EWDs. We found that the association of year-to-year variation in EWDs with the number of cold days in winter ( <5 °C), evident until the mid 1970s, has disappeared, leaving only the incidence of influenza-like illnesses to explain any of the year-to-year variation in EWDs in the past decade. Although EWDs evidently do exist, winter cold severity no longer predicts the numbers affected. We conclude that no evidence exists that EWDs in England and Wales will fall if winters warm with climate change. These findings have important implications for climate change health adaptation policies. [Emphasis mine.]
In short, excess winter mortality no longer seems related to winter conditions themselves, but to the varying deadliness of seasonal influenza and its relatives - the paper analyses the expectation that excess winter deaths will decrease due to milder winters and finds that there is little room for improvement. (It must be said that this is a single paper, so some corroboration is surely required before it is taken as fact.)
The headline itself is nothing more than a literal one-sentence summary of the findings of the paper as noted in the abstract.
It's also worth noting the risk factors for mortality/morbidity for heat illness:
Age. Infants and children up to age 4, and adults over age 65, are particularly vulnerable because they adjust to heat more slowly than other people.
Certain health conditions. These include heart, lung, or kidney disease, obesity or underweight, high blood pressure, diabetes, mental illness, sickle cell trait, alcoholism, sunburn, and any conditions that cause fever. People with diabetes are at increased risk of emergency room visits, hospitalization, and death from heat-related illness and may be especially likely to underestimate their risk during heat waves.
Medications. These include diuretics, sedatives, tranquilizers, stimulants, some heart and blood pressure medications, and medications for psychiatric conditions.
[Emphasis original.]
Increased risk of heat illness is obviously a real risk of climate change, whatever your feelings about who dies from it. All this article does is show that we can't look to decreased winter mortality/morbidity to balance it off.
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John Hartz at 01:21 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm:
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Tom Dayton at 00:41 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm, for data you've got the references in the original post (in particular, the AIRS instrument on AQUA), plus two people pointing you to AR5, plus an early comment pointing to Science of Doom (which now has a Part 7). It is necessary for you to click and read, and (horrors!) sometimes then click and read those sources' cited sources.
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Non-Scientist at 00:38 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
No edit function: For clarity, my last sentence would be better as "...mocked as insinuating..."
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Non-Scientist at 00:36 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
"Global warming won't cut winter deaths as hoped"
This topic, and the related topic of summer heat induced death are a tad misleading. The death rate of all causes is 100%: you are going to die at some point, and today there will be a medical diagnosis other than old age.
But nearly all deaths due to summer heat are natural deaths of old age, and that is a quiet passing during one's sleep, rather than while hooked up to machines, after a painful fall, or due to a hospital aquired infection.
It's best not to distract from the real risks of climate change with headlines which will be mocked as meaning "Millyuns will die in the streets if you don't buy a Prius".
Moderator Response:[JH] Newspaper headlines are purposely written to grab the reader's attention and entice him/jher to read the article.
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Michael Whittemore at 22:49 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
Its silly to imply climate models are getting it wrong when they are not designed to factor in certain aspects of the climate. Climate models should be adjusted each year to factor in increased ocean heat, volcano eruptions and what ever else is not accounted for.
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Michael Whittemore at 22:41 PM on 27 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
Its great to hear that the IPCC will now start to focus on ways to reduce the impacts of climate change. Its getting a little pointless when the only arguments we are hearing are conspiracy theory's.
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MA Rodger at 20:50 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
chriskoz @11.
Klimont et al (2013) shows sulphate emissions to 2011. There is a balance between rising emissions in the developing world and falling emissions in the developed world. This also results in emissions increasing at lower latitudes.
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chriskoz at 20:19 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
tstreet@9,
Human aerosol emissions can be acounted for quite reasonably in the past 100y or so, as seen on this graph from tamino:
The emissions clearly peaked in 70s, after they started cleaning what you've experienced in Denver, and what other experienced throughout the whole NAmerica & Europe.
I don't see any jump on this graph as the result of recent boom in China. The graph ends at 2000 however, and would love to see latest update on this account. But so far, I don't see anything what you describe as "what's going on in China" on this graph.
So my conclusion: "if China cuts its emissions", there will be no "ugly spike in [global] warming", because the drop in aerosol emissions should not be very signifficant. Perhaps the local temps would be affected. But the global effect might well be diluted. Often, what looks grandiose & very scary (especially when seen through sensationalism of the media) may not be actually a big deal when seen through the actual data analysis.
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